ACRL News Issue (B) of College & Research Libraries J a n u a ry 1 9 9 3 /2 1 Practical visioning for the decade of austerity By Carol H ughes and W illiam P fa n n en stiel The ACRL en viro n m en ta l scan O ne of the charges of the ACRL Planning Committee is to prepare an environm en­ tal scan for the organization and its members as part of the effort to bring the ACRL Plan into sharper focus. In the C&RL News for Septem­ b er 1989, Ann E. Prentice authored the first ACRL scan article com piling data on trends pertinent to higher education from a variety of excellent sources. This article updates Prentice’s work, expanding it somewhat to encompass trends explicitly of interest to professional as­ sociations such as ACRL. E n v iro n m e n ta l scanning The purpose of environm ental scanning is that of “linking external issues, events, and trends with p lan n ed ch an g e.”1 Most institutions of higher education have a formal plan with a mission statement, goals, and objectives. The plan often represents a statement of w hat the institution wants to becom e and an indication of the strategies w hich will be undertaken to achieve the vision. Environmental scanning is a process that identifies trends in the external environm ent that might provide opportunities for devising new strategies or w arn o f threats to the institution’s ability to implement its cho­ sen strategies and achieve its goals. Environmental scanning allows planning to b ecom e a dynam ic p ro cess that adjusts to changes in society as they occur. It avoids the problem s that occur w hen planning is p e r­ formed as a process that merely extrapolates the future based entirely on the past. Evaluat­ ing a plan in light of environmental trends also precludes treating institutional goals as an ide­ alized list of wishes, unrelated to an institution’s ability to achieve them. The process of scanning involves gathering data, identifying trends, and analyzing them to assess the degree o f impact each trend might have on the institution’s ability to achieve its goals. The data gathering process can involve various methodologies from statistical analysis of data to content analysis o f new spaper and journal articles. It is important to base trend analyses on hard data rather than merely on published opinion to enable managers to dis­ tinguish trends from fads. However, as Prentice noted in her 1989 re­ port to the Planning Committee, ACRL does not have the apparatus and resources needed to organize and conduct a full-blown, ongoing data-gathering and forecasting process. There­ fore this article follows the precedent of the earlier one in summarizing trends and conclu­ sions that other environmental scanners and professional leaders have noted. In this update w e present trends that are of importance to professional associations in gen­ eral, as well as to institutions of higher educa­ tion. In this way w e hope to call attention to how the environm ent might affect ACRL itself as well as the institutions that employ its mem­ bers. We have also attem pted to indicate trends that impact colleges as well as research univer­ sities. It is not always the case that colleges experience opportunities and threats from the environm ent in the same way they are experi­ enced by research institutions. Hopefully, fu­ ture scans will be able to enhance analysis of the ways in w hich college and university envi­ ronments differ and make the environmental Carol Hughes is a lecturer a t the University o f M ichigan School o f Inform ation a n d Library Studies, bitnet: USERLLWV@UM1CHUM; William P fannenstiel is reference librarian a t Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College 22 / C&RL News scan useful to the greatest possible number of ACRL members. The process of generating an environmen­ tal scan will be useful to ACRL only if its mem­ bers and officers use it to evaluate the impact that these trends might have on their ow n institution’s plan, the ACRL plan, and member activities. Since the trends will affect the vari­ ous goals of each ACRL mem ber institution, committee, and section differently, no interpre­ tation of the impacts is offered herein by the authors. Trends in h ig h e r ed ucatio n o f significance fo r a cad em ic lib ra rie s This list of trends is focused on a three-year horizon since the ACRL Planning Committee will be revising the scan again in the near fu­ ture. Many o f the tren d s n o te d earlier by Prentice are still affecting the world of higher education in 1992. Therefore the following list of trends incorporates several items from the 1989 list. I. Econom ics • A weak, somewhat volatile dollar in the international market; • Increasing costs of information resources above the low rate of inflation, although col­ lege libraries will be affected less adversely than research institutions; • Costs of telecommunications will remain relatively stable; • Deferred capital investments and main­ tenance costs will require significantly increased attention, especially on older campuses; • Private sources of revenue will comprise a larger proportion of funding for institutions, especially for large research institutions; • Major cost-cutting efforts will be instituted throughout universities and colleges. Libraries will be pressed to maintain their present share of the institutional budget; and • G overnment funding will not increase and limited resources will continue to hamper growth. II. Politics • Questions of ownership o f intellectual property will increase; • Continued pressure to regulate access to information and continued debate over public access to information; • Increased public scrutiny and govern­ mental oversight of higher education which will especially affect operations at research institu­ tions; and • Global competitiveness will increase as J a n u a ry 1993 / 2 3 will efforts at protectionism. Information and higher education will be seen as an important competitive edge in the world economy. III. D em ograp hics • Regional variations in dem ographic p at­ terns will result in some areas of the country experiencing a decline in both student and em ployee pools and in their tax base while other regions will experience growth; • Greater emphasis on life-long learning opportunities for nontraditional students within higher education. The private sector will be­ com e a major adult education provider; • Access to higher education will continue to be problem atic for m em bers of minority groups; • Greater num bers of w om en and minori­ ties in the workforce; • A shortage of faculty in some disciplines will becom e evident and competition for new and minority faculty will increase; and • Increased em phasis on the undergradu­ ate educational experience at research institu­ tions, with increased attention to the needs of underprepared students. Community colleges will assume a larger role as “feeder” schools. IV. Scholarly co m m u n ica tio n • Published scholarship will continue to grow in quantity; • Increased use o f electronic com munica­ tion by faculty and students in scholarship and teaching; • Increased em phasis on research partner­ ships with private industry; and • Global focus of research will grow stron­ ger. V. In form ation te c h n o lo g y • Progress toward electronic publishing will be ham pered by concerns for intellectual p ro p ­ erty rights; • Computing environm ents will becom e increasingly diverse in hardware, software, and infrastructure configurations; • Technology will continue to change faster than organizations and hum an patterns o f in­ formation exchange can accommodate. Expec­ tations for cost savings from the implementa­ tion of technology will not be greatly realized; • Costs o f rapid obsolescence o f technol­ ogy will complicate pressures for greatly ex­ panded reinvestment; • New formats o f information will continue to proliferate. However, the gap betw een the technology “haves” and “have-nots” will w iden with continued budget constraints; • College libraries will take over responsi­ bilities for local audiovisual services as faculty increase their use of these technologies; and • Emphasis on multimedia products will grow. VII. Education fo r th e in fo rm a tio n p ro fes­ sio n s • New educational needs produced by an increased know ledge base in information sci­ ence and technology will build pressures for curriculum revision and longer programs. “Sea changes,” “re-inventing,” and “re-engineering” will be watchwords; • Schools w hose faculty adopt an active role and a visible research presence within the university will grow stronger; • Master’s programs that include an intern­ ship or practicum will becom e more available; and • An increased interest in providing under­ graduate education on information issues will be apparent. VIII. Libraries • The quality revolution in society and higher education will intensify. Libraries will be asked to define quality in their services; • Creative ideas for enhancing external sup­ port will be increasingly important; • Managing a culturally diverse organiza­ tion will present continuing challenges; • Access will not replace ow nership in the near term. New technologies and services from the private sector will become more important in the local strategy for providing full-text. In­ creased dependency on remote collections will create pressures for the redesign and strength­ ening of all types o f resource-sharing agree­ ments; • Print format will continue to dominate local collections. Space issues will continue to be critical at many institutions; • Staff training and developm ent will re­ quire increased resources as technological in­ novations occur and library operations are re­ designed; • An aging workforce limits opportunities for prom otion within many organizations; and • Service dem ands and pressure for pro­ viding individualized and convenient informa­ tion services to users grows. 2 4 / C&RLNews IX. P rofessional association trends • Probable decline in volunteerism; • Travel budgets continue to be tight at many institutions as travel costs increase; • The need for knowing and responding to the needs and desires of o n e’s membership will increase; • Pressures for regionalization and special­ ization continue to compete with national as­ sociations; and • A decline in the economy presents mem­ bers and associations with increasing monetary pressures. The future implied by these trends is one of change and challenge for our association, the profession, and for the institutions in which we are employed. However, the next and the most important step to take is that of careful inter­ pretation of these trends and an evaluation of their degree of impact on the organization. Af­ ter such an analysis is made, it will be possible to adjust to the new demands of the environ­ ment and ensure that the desired goals are still within grasp. N otes 1Bruce A. Montgomery and Martha A. Hesse, “Environmental scanning and external tenden­ cies in higher education,” Planning fo r Higher Education 18:4 (1989-90): 61-101. B ib lio g ra p h y ACRE FYI 993 Budget Impact Statement (Chi­ cago: ALA, 1992). Change Drivers; A n Update to W hat Lies Ahead; Countdown to the 21st Century (Alex­ andria, Va.: United Way Strategic Institute, 1991). Chronicle o f Higher Education 38 (1991/92). Journey to the 21st Century; A Sum m ary o f OCLC’s Strategic Plan (Dublin, Ohio: OCLC, 1991). Richard N. Katz and Richard P. West, Sus­ taining Excellence in the 21st Century.- A Vi­ sion a n d Strategies fo r College a n d University Administration (Boulder, Colo.: CAUSE, 1992). G. Gregory Lozier and Deborah J. Teeter, “Strategic Planning and Total Quality Manage­ ment,” in Total Quality M anagem ent in Higher Education (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1991). Bruce A. Montgomery and Martha L. Hesse, “Environmental scanning and external tenden­ cies affecting American higher education,” Plan­ ning f o r Higher Education 18(4) (1989-90): 6 l - 102. (Scan cont. on page 28) 2 8/C & R L N ew s eign & International Documents Librarian/Afri­ can & Middle Eastern Bibliographer, Stanford University Libraries, Stanford, CA 94305-6100; Gretchen E. Holten, Humanities/Social Sciences Bibliographer, University o f Nebraska-Lincoln, 216N Love Library, Lincoln, NE 68588-0410. W o m e n 's Studies Section (WSS) V ice-C hair/C hair-E lect: C ynthia S. Paries, Reference Librarian, Penn State University, E108 Pattee Library, University Park, PA 16802; Lori A. Goetsch, Head, Information/Reference, Michi­ gan State University Libraries, East Lansing, MI 48824-1048. Secretary: Thura Reed Mack, Reference Librar­ ian, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-1000; Grace M. Jackson-Brown, Afro- American Studies Subject Specialist and Branch H ead Librarian o f the Black Culture Center Li­ brary, Indiana University-Bloomington, Black Culture Center Library, 109 N. Jordan Ave., Bloomington, IN 47405. Member-at-Large: Mila C. Su, Senior Assistant Librarian-Reference, Robert E. Eiche Library, Penn State Altoona Campus, Altoona, PA l6001; Kristin H. Gerhard, Authorities Coordinator and Monographic Cataloger, Iowa State University, 204 Parks Library, Ames, IA 50011. ■ (Scan cont. fr o m page 24) James L. Morrison, “Establishing an environ­ mental scanning/forecasting system to augm ent college and university planning,” P la n n in g fo r H igher Education 15(1) (1987): 7-22. Mark Sandler, “Dollar watch: 1991 year-end update,” Library Issues 12(3) (January 1992): 2-3. Mimi Harris Steadman and Ralph A. Wolff, Evaluating Library Quality in the Accreditation Process: What Changes Do New Technologies Bring? U npublished discussion paper for the Ac­ crediting Commission for Senior Colleges and Uni­ versities and the WASC Presidents’ Forum, 1991. Marvin J. Cetron and O wen Davies, “Fifty trends shaping the w orld,” The Futurist 25(5) (September-October 1991): 12-21. Visions Listserv postings, 4/92-6/92. The Winds o f Change: Key Trends Im pact­ ing Associations in the '90s. U npublished 1991 draft prepared by the American Society of As­ sociation Executives. Strategic Planning Documents from various university libraries w ere also consulted and many conversations with library educators were held. A special thanks to all the institutions w ho resp o n d e d to William P fannenstiel’s survey updating the ACRL Environmental Scan. A u th o rs’ note: We w o u ld like to th a n k all the members o f the ACRL P la n n in g C om m it­ tee f o r assistance p ro vid ed in preparing this scan. ■ O perate an ERIC clearinghouse The U. S. Department of Education an­ nounces a competition (Request for Propos­ als— RFP) for the award o f 16 contracts to operate Educational Resources Information Center (ERIC) Clearinghouses. Located around the country, the 16 ERIC Clearinghouses—the subject of this RFP— are each responsible for acquiring, processing, synthesizing, and disseminating information about particular aspects or subject areas of education. Established in 1966, ERIC is a na­ tional information network designed to provide users with ready access to education materials. A separate contract will be issued for each ERIC Clearinghouse, as follows: Adult, Ca­ reer, and Vocational Education; Assessment and Evaluation, Community Colleges; Coun­ seling and Student Services, Disabilities and Gifted Education; Educational Management; Elementary and Early Childhood Education; H igher Education; Inform ation Resources; Languages and Linguistics; Reading and Com­ m unication Skills; Rural Education and Small Schools; Science, Mathematics, and Environ­ mental Education; Social Studies/Social Sci­ ence Education; Teaching and Teaching Edu­ cation; and Urban Education. Proposals are due January 29, 1993- Send proposals to: LaTonya D. Simpson, Grants and Contracts Service, GSA Building, Room 3633, 7th an d D Streets, SW, W ashington, D.C. 20202; phone: (202) 708-8191.