College and Research Libraries


Data-Guided Collection 
Development: A Promise Unfulfilled 

Dennis P. Carrigan 

The widening gap between constituents' demands for materials and re-
search libraries' abilities to meet those demands calls for new strategies 
or emphases by those libraries. It may be expected that patron demands 
will exert increasing influence over the allocation of materials budgets 
and those data on use of materials will drive or guide collection develop-
ment. Are such data, which can be provided by automated systems, 
being used to guide collection development? Responses to a survey 
reveal that, with few exceptions, they are not. 

., 

mong libraries serving the lead-
ing North American research 
universities, there is clear evi-
dence of a widening gap be-

tween constituents' demands for materi-
als and libraries' abilities to meet those 
demands from their own collections. Ac-
cording to the report on the ARL/RLG In-
terlibrary Loan Cost Study, interlibrary bor-
rowing among ARL libraries grew by 108 
percent in the ten years through 1992, or 
at an average annual compound rate of 7.6 
percent. The increase the final year was ten 
percent.1 Moreover, a graph in the 1993-94 
ARL Statistics portrays vividly the near-
doubling of interlibrary borrowing among 
ARL academic libraries between 1986 and 
1994 (see figure 1).2 

According to the cost study, three con-
verging trends explain the increase in in-
terlibrary loans. These trends account for · 
the widening gap between constituents' 
demands and libraries' abilities to meet 
those demands. They are "more accessible 
and easy-to-use bibliographic tools; ... a 
growing universe of published items"; 

and "reduced buying power" for librar-
ies as a result of increased acquisition 
costs for most research resources com-
bined with constrained budgets. 3 Another 
graph from the ARL Statistics portrays the 
third of the converging trends. It reveals 
the disparities, during the period 1986-94, 
between the unit price increase for seri-
als and monographs (115% and 55%, 
respectively), and the slower rate of in-
crease in library spending for serials and, 
in particular, for monographs (93% and 
17%, respectively). The graph also shows 
the consequences of these disparities, a 4 
percent decline in serials purchased and 
a 22 percent decline in monographs pur-
chased (see figure 2). 

The graphs depict what Nancy L. Eaton 
refers to as the "crisis of scholarly publish-
ing," which has had severe consequences 
for research university library bud-
gets. 4 As the director of such a library, 
Eaton asserts: 

Pleading for more money to match 
inflation and the fluctuations in the 

Dennis P. Carrigan is Assistant Director, School of Library and Information Science, University of Ken-
tucky; e-mail: carrigan@ukcc.uky.edu. 

429 



430 College & Research Libraries September 1996 

FIGURE 1 
Supply and Demand in ARL Libraries, 1986-94 

<D 
00 
(j) 

Q) 
0 
c 

(f) 

Q) 

en 
c 
co 
..c 

120% 

100% 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20% 

Interlibrary Borrowing 
(+99%) 

Interlibrary Lending 
(+50%) 

Grad. Students (+23%) 
Teaching Faculty 

:::::==:::a:::::::~:::::. ...... -~-~ ( + 16%) 
Total Students ( + 1 0%) 

0 
eft. 

0% 

-20% 

-40% 
1986 1988 1990 1992 

Fiscal Year 

Serial Subscriptions 
(-4%) 

1994 

Monograph Volumes 
Purchased (-22%) 

1996 

Note: This graph compares growth in numbers of users with changes in onsite resources 
and resource-sharing. 

Source: 1993-94 ARL Statistics. Prepared by Kendon Stubbs; copyright© 1995 by the Asso-
ciation of Research Libraries. 

dollar is no longer viable unless it 
is also accompanied by new strate-
gies that hold promise for changing 
the system. Library directors must 
also question how well we are us-
ing the resources we have. The old 
80/20 rule of thumb-20 percent of 
our collections meet 80 percent of 
demand-is no longer credible to 
our senior [university] administra-
tors and funding agencies, given the 
fiscal climate.5 

Importance of Use Data: lncreas~J(." 
Significance of Demand 
Charles B. Osburn believes libraries are 
establishing a new set of guiding principles 
in response to persistent and significant 
stresses and strains, ambiguities and 
change, which are either triggered or ag-
gravated by economic pressures. One of 
the principles is a shift in emphasis from 
spending acquisitions budgets on the ba-
sis of speculation to spending on the ba-
sis of demand .6 Establishment of such a 



Data-Guided Collection Development 431 

FIGURE2 
Monograph and Serial Costs in ARL Libraries, 1986-94 

120% 

100% 

80% 

co 
co 
0) 

60% 
Q) 
() 
c 

(/) 40% 
Q) 
0') 
c 
ccs 
..c 20% 
(.) 

-;/2. 
0 

0% 

-20% 

-40% 
1986 1988 1990 1992 

Serial Unit Price 
(+115%) 

Serial Expenditures 
(+93%) 

Monograph Unit 
Price (+55%) 

Monograph 
Expenditures 
(+17%) 

Serials Purchased 
(-4%) 

Monographs 
Purchased (-22%) 

1994 1996 

Fiscal Year 

Source: 1993-94 ARL Statistics. Prepared by Kendon Stubbs; copyright© 1995 by the Asso-
ciation of Research Libraries. 

principle should increase the importance 
of the data that can be produced by auto-
mated systems. These data reveal the de-
mand for materials and could guide col-
lection development and thus the 
spending of acquisitions budgets. 

Questionnaire 
To determine the extent to which data that 
can be produced by automated systems 
are used to guide collection development, 
the author developed a questionnaire and 
sent it to the chief collection development 
officer at each of the 108 university library 

members of ARL. Respondents returned 
seventy-nine completed questionnaires, 
for a response rate of 73.1 percent. 
Respondents were asked if they could be 
quoted or paraphrased by name; not all 
consented. 

Discussion of Responses 
Universality of Automated Systems: 
Use of Data Leads to Better Decisions 
The first question asked respondents if 
the main library uses an automated cir-
culation system. Not surprisingly, all re-
spondents replied affirmatively. Respon-



432 College & Research Libraries 

dents were then asked if the data pro-
duced by the system are regularly used 
in collection development decisions. 
Thirty-four (43%) replied affirmatively. 
Those who replied affirmatively were 
asked if they believe use of the data leads 
to significantly better collection develop-
ment decisions than would be the case if 
the data were not used. Twenty-eight of 
the thirty-four (82.4%) replied affirma-
tively. Those who reported that the data 
produced by an automated circulation 
system were not regularly used in collec-
tion development decisions were asked 
if it is planned to use such data for such 
purpose. No time horizon was specified. 
Thirty-two of the forty-five (71.1 %) re-
plied affirmatively (see table 1). 

How the Data Are Used: Macro-Level 
Use Infrequent 
Respondents who reported that their li-
braries use the data in collection devel-
opment decisions were asked to describe 
the data and how they are used. Their re-
sponses fell into two categories. One cat-
egory has to do with use of the data at the 
micro level, or individual title level; the 
other at the global (macro), or subject 
classification (call-number range) leveF 
Only eleven respondents reported use of 
the data at the macro level. That is 32.4 
percent of those who reported their librar-
ies use the data in collection development 
decisions, but only 13.9 percent of all 

TABLEt 

September 1996 

respondents. However, use must be at the 
macro level if the data are to bear signifi-
cantly on resource allocation and guide 
collection development8 (see table 2 for a 
summary). 

At the micro level, twenty-four of the 
thirty-four respondents (70.6%) reported 
using information about title holds to con-
sider purchasing additional copies. Four-
teen (41.2%) reported using information 
about lost or damaged titles to consider 
purchasing replacements. Eight (23.5%) 
reported using circulation data to make 
storage decisions and eight institutions 
use such data to determine candidates 
for withdrawal. Five (14.7%) said data 
are used in canceling journal sub-
scriptions. At the macro level, six re-
spondents (17.6%) reported using the 
data in allocating the materials budget 
and five said data are used to deter-
mine circulation by classification, 
which information may influence bud-
get allocation. As approval plans in-
crease in popularity, it may be especial-
ly interesting to other institutions that 
three respondents (8.8%) reported use of 
the data to monitor and adjust approval 
plans. Because of comments made in two 
of the approval plan responses, the au-
thor decided to treat the three as macro-
lev-el use of the data. 

Several respondents commented on 
the difficulty that a NOTIS system pre-
sents. According to Chuck Hamaker, as-

sistant dean for collection de-

Summary of Responses to Questionnaire 
velopment at Louisiana State 
University, "One of the major 
problems for most libraries 
with NOTIS is that it takes 
special programming to get 
the SASS reports that coordi-
nate data to make it meaning-
ful." Another respondent at a 
NOTIS library commented 
that purchase of NOTIS 
Quick Reports enabled the li-
brary to produce some re-
ports. However, Quick Re-

1. Questionnaires sent 
2. Questionnaires returned 
3. Automated circulation system 
4. Data regularly used i_n collection 

development decisions 
5. Use of data leads to significantly 

better decisions 

108 (100.0%) 
79 (73.1 %) 
79 (100.0%) 
34 (43.0%) 

28 (82.4%) 

6. Data not regularly used in collection 45 (57 .0%) 
development decisions 

7. Plan to use data in collection 3 2 (71.1%) 
development decisions ports "was very expensive 



TABLE2 
How the Data Are Used 

Level of use 

1. Add copy 
2. Replace copy 
3. Store 
4. Withdraw 
5. Cancel journals 
6. Allocate budget 
7. Determine use by 

classification or range 
8. Monitor approval plan 

Micro 

24 (70.6%) 
14 (41.2%) 
8 (23.5%) 
8 (23.5%) 
5 (14.7%) 

Data-Guided Collection Development 433 

Macro 

6 (17.6%) 
5 (14.7%) 

3 (8.8%) 

ability of those specific titles 
most in demand by current 
students and faculty. A rela-
tively small amount of 
money spent here can re-
sult, I believe, in a dispro-
portionate benefit to cus-
tomers .... Also, as we face 
another round of journal 
cancellations, use data for 
sci/ tech journals captured 
at relatively low cost will 
aid greatly in the decision 

L__ ___________________ ____J process. 

[and] there are some very annoying omis-
sions." 

Conversely, Linda Di Biase, collection 
development librarian at the University 
of Washington Libraries, which uses an 
Innovative Interfaces Integrated System, 
noted the system's excellent management 
reporting capabilities. 

#Significantly" Better Decisions 
Does the use of data lead to significantly 
better collection development decisions 
than would be the case if the data were 
not used? It does, according to twenty-
eight of the thirty-four respondents 
(82.4%) who reported the data are used. 
Those who answered yes were asked to 
elaborate, though not all did so. Jim 
Kuhlman, associate dean of libraries for 
collections and information services at the 
University of Alabama, commented on 
use of the data at the micro level: 

"Significantly" is a relative term. 
We haven't made the use of circu-
lation data that I would have 
hoped. For example, it has not 
played a role in budget allocation 
other than helping to make the case 
for increasing the amount for 
replacement/ added copies. On the 
other hand, I think that has been 
significant. Such data has provided 
[an] accurate and convenient 
mechanism to increase the avail-

At Auburn University, Yvonne 
Kozlowski expressed the view of several 
respondents who use the data at the 
macro level: "We know what areas of our 
collections are receiving high use." As a 
result, more materials are acquired for 
those areas. At the University of Illinois-
Urbana, Karen Schmidt, chair of the Col-
lection Development Committee, · cap-
tured the essence of what use of the data 
makes possible: "It allows us to make in-
formed decisions about where our dol-
lars should go." 

Suzanne Pitman, associate director for 
technical services and collection manage-
ment at North Carolina State University, 
made a number of good points that 
should be of interest to her colleagues, 
especially those not using data generated 
by an automated system: 

The use of hard data, as opposed 
to anecdotal or individual impres-
sion, leads to more reliable analy-
ses; data is now available that 
wasn't in the manual system, and 
data are routinely available now 
that formerly required special ef-
forts. The availability of data over 
time helps analyze trends more ac-
curately. The ability to tailor reports 
supports more extensive and cre-
ative use of data to better under-
stand use patterns and our user 
communities. 



434 College & Research Libraries 

Explaining Lack of Use 
The forty-five respondents who reported 
that their libraries use an automated cir-
culation system, but that data produced 
by the system are not regularly used in 
collection development decisions, were 
asked to explain the lack of use. Not all 
respondents did so; several respondents 
cited more than one reason (see table 3). 

System limitations were cited by 
eleven of the forty-five respondents 
(24.4%). At Arizona State University, Elliot 
Palais, coordinator for the social sciences, 
stated "that a number of years ago the li-
brary adopted the CARL automated sys-
tem, which provides only the most 
rudimentary kind of data on collection use. 
The library hopes to install a new system 
within a year or so, and a requirement for 
it will be the ability to produce a variety of 
collection use statistics." 

Barbara Van Deventer, assistant direc-
tor for collection development at the Uni-
versity of Chicago, commented that the 
system in use there is a local system devel-
oped more than a dozen years ago. Al-
though certain categories of information 
useful to patrons are provided, neverthe-
less "data retention helpful to collection 
management was not included [in system 
design]. Thus, we have no information on 
use through circulation. This is a serious 
defect." 

According to one respondent, 
"Unfortunately, the libraries' present cir-
culation system does not make data that 
is useful for collection development 
readily available." And another respon-
dent noted, "Our NOTIS system yields 
gross circulation data presently. We are 

TABLE3 
Why the Data Are Not Used 

September 1996 

not receiving the Quick Reports which 
would provide useful collection manage-
ment data." A third respondent added: 
"The data that will be generated [from a 
new automated circulation system] will 
not be sufficiently attuned to collection 
management needs for it to be helpful." 

At the University of Kentucky, Bonnie 
Jean Cox, collection development librarian, 
reported, "The system's data cannot be 
accessed from the desktop. Producing such 
a report requires the intervention of a sys-
tems librarian and a programmer." At MIT, 
according to Carol Fleishauer, associate 
director for collections services, "It's too 
difficult to extract the data from the sys-
tems." Lynn Sipe, acting director of librar-
ies at the University of Southern Califor-
nia, wrote that circulation data now are 
used for replacement and added copy de-
cisions, and "more sophisticated use 
would be made if the automated data were 
more easily retrieved, especially without 
assistance of computer room staff." 

Another eleven respondents reported 
having data for too few years. According 
to Joel Rutstein at Colorado State Univer-
sity, his institution has had three systems 
since 1985, and, as a result, staff have been 
unable to accumulate reliable information 
over sufficient time. The current system 
has been in place only two years. Another 
respondent wrote that her institution has 
"only a few years of data that indicate 
usage, etc., in our present SIRSI circula-
tion system." 

Seven of the forty-five respondents 
(15.6%) reported that within the context 
of automated systems, other program-
ming had higher priority. At Cornell Uni-

versity, according to Ross Atkinson, 
associate university librarian, the nec-
essary programs have not been writ-
ten because they have been "a lower 

1. Limitation of system 
2. Data for too few years 
3. Needed program(s) unavailable 
4. Not convinced of value of data 
5. Other 

11 (24.4%) 
11 (24.4%) 
7 (15.6%) 
9 (20.0%) 
7 (15.6%) 

priority than other programs needed 
for processing and public access." The 
head of collection development at a 
Canadian institution also commented 
that special programming is needed 
and "our library system has given 



little priority to deriving management in-
formation." At the University of Hawaii 
at Manoa, according to Carol Schaafsma, 
collection development coordinator, "We 
have not had the necessary expertise to 
extract the information being collected. 
We are in the process of hiring an individ-
ual who will be charged with responsi-
bility for doing this." 

Joseph Branin, associate university li-
brarian at the University of Minnesota, 
commented, "We automated circulation 
late (about five years ago) and other auto-
mation issues have taken priority over pro-
gramming for useful statistical reports." 

At some institutions, however, the rea-
son for not using the data rests with col-
lection development itself. At one of the 
leading U.S. public institutions, according 
to the respondent, the ''basic problem is 
that collection development has not con-
ceptualized and requested data that might 
be helpful." Another respondent wrote that 
there is "no particular reason" why the 
data are not regularly used in collection 
development decisions. And at a major 
Midwestern institution, it was reported 
that "It's something we haven't gotten to 
on a regular basis yet." 

At Washington University in Saint 
Louis, according to B. J. Johnson, head of 
collection development services, consider-
ation has been given to using circulation 
data in collection decisions, ''but effort to 
produce reports from the circulation sys-
tem is much more trouble than informa-
tion is worth." Johnson then makes an 
interesting point: "Also, local history and 
politics would not tolerate any significant 
changes-regardless of source of data!" 

Several respondents asserted that cir-
culation data are not seen to be impor-
tant for guiding collection development 
due to the nature of their institutions. At 
one Midwestern institution, the head of 
collection development commented that 
''because of the research aspect of [our] 
collection and for political reasons eire 
data is a 'hard sell."' The collection de-
velopment officer at another Midwestern 

Data-Guided Collection Development 435 

institution commented, too, on the influ-
ence exerted by the institution's research 
mission: "Circulation isn't viewed as the 
most important factor in collection 
development in a research library." 

The head of the Collection Develop-
ment Department at a Canadian institu-
tion also noted the influence exerted by 
the need to support research: "Our re-
search collection is a single-copy collec-
tion. This means that the number of times 
an individual title circulates over a given 

Several respondents asserted that 
circulation data are not seen to be 
important for guiding collection 
development due to the nature of 
their institutions. 

period is largely irrelevant." Another re-
spondent made a similar observation, 
saying that circulation "is a minor crite-
rion for evaluating collections" at a re-
search library and "takes no account of 
in-house use, ILL, or use of special col-
lections." Yet, circulation could be de-
fined so as to take account of in-house 
use and ILL. 

Finally, the comments made by two re-
spondents may contain valuable warn-
ings. According to one, "The effectiveness 
of the data is related only to the actual 
use of it and that is entirely dependent 
on the ability and the willingness of the 
selectors to take advantage of what can 
be made available." In that regard, Jim 
Kuhlman at the University of Alabama, 
whose library does use the data in collec-
tion development decisions, expressed 
the view that "many librarians are 
uncomfortable with statistics, especially 
if the resulting conclusion contradicts our 
preferences." 

Concluding Comments 
This article reports findings concerning 
the use of the data available from auto-
mated circulation systems to guide col-
lection development. Although it is be-



436 College & Research Libraries 

lieved that such data are valuable in guid-
ing collection development, the data are 
not the only information that is valuable 
to collection developers. The importance 
of interlibrary loan statistics in collection 
development has been asserted. More-
over, those who contend a formula is the 
best means to allocate the materials bud-
get argue, if only implicitly, that a consid-
erable amount and variety of information 
should bear on collection development. 
In one formula, for example, information 
was incorporated on undergraduate 
enrollment, number of graduate majors, 
number of faculty by department, holdings 
by subject, and average price by subject. 

In spite of the value of other data to 
collection developers, however, some 
have predicted that it is the data avail-
able from automated circulation systems 
that would guide collection development. 
Fifteen years ago, H. William Axford 
wrote that there was "every reason to 
believe that the long-term collection use 
study will become widespread and that 
it will result in fundamental changes in 
the way library collections are managed 

Some respondents lamented the 
nonavailability of needed programs 
and the inability to persuade the 
appropriate persons that the 
programs should be developed. 

in the decade ahead." Economic con-
straints would be the principal impetus 
for the use studies. He continues, "This 
unpleasant [economic] reality poses an 
impossible budgeting problem for institu-
tions of higher education unless there is 
a willingness to explore new approaches 
to resource allocation which incorporate 
the concept of attempting to measure the 
return on investment." Senior campus 
administrators and external agencies 
would see that the institutions' libraries 

. were not exempt from the requirement to 
explore new approaches to resource allo-
cation. As one result, collection use stud-

September 1996 

ies, made possible by "sophisticated au-
tomated circulation systems, would be-
come common"; and according to Axford, 
"it is highly probable" such studies "will 
prove to be the most effective tool for ... 
upgrading the management of academic 
libraries to emerge from a decade of 
experimenta tion." 9 

Nearly a decade ago, Susan Nutter 
wrote: 

Collection development librarians 
are facing increasing pressures to 
tailor collections more precisely to 
user needs and to do so in a more 
cost-effective manner. Increasingly, 
collection management decisions 
need to be made on the basis of hard 
data-assumptions, educated guesses, 
and intuition are no longer adequate. 

Fortunately, Nutter continued, "with 
this growing need, computer-based sys-
tems that can provide this management 
information are coming into widespread 
use in libraries." 10 

Charles Hamaker wrote of "fiscal re-
ality'' and "accountability," and of the po-
tential benefits available from computer-
based systems: "As many libraries, large 
and small, begin to utilize data from on-
line circulation and control systems ... 
one of the least examined areas has been 
the potential impact on collection devel-
opment and management decisions." 
According to Hamaker, other demands 
stand in the way of having the potential 
benefits realized, but he believed it was 
inevitable that "collection design" would 
come about and would lead to the benefits, 
which are a better match between collec-
tions and user needs. The selection "pro-
cess is about to change even in some of the 
largest libraries. Fiscal reality will drive 
the change and accountability will be-
come a necessity .... With the availabil-
ity of circulation information with just a 
few keystrokes, the question of which book 
to add has a whole dimension available 
that was guesswork before."11 



Yet, more recently, Hamaker has writ-
ten that although "OPACs held [and hold?] 
the promise of better management data, 
more information on our collections, [f]or 
the most part this information has not been 
collected, analyzed, utilized. It is a prom-
ise yet to be fulfilled." 12 

The results of this survey bear out that 
assessment. The predictions of Axford 
and Nutter have not been borne out. Why, 
in spite of their predictions, is so little use 
made of data that can be provided by 
automated circulation systems to guide 
resource allocation and collection devel-
opment? The responses to the survey re-
veal a variety of reasons. System limita-
tions were cited by a number of respon-
dents and seemed to be a particular prob-
lem at NOTIS sites. Some respondents 
lamented the nonavailability of needed 
programs and the inability to persuade 
the appropriate persons that the pro-
grams should be developed. Still other re-
spondents made it clear they are not con-
vinced of the value, for collection devel-
opment, of data available from automated 
circulation systems. 

Data-Guided Collection Development 437 

Is there, however, another, overarching 
explanation, not revealed in returned 
questionnaires, for the nearly universal 
nonuse of the data at the important macro 
level? In discussing, and in some cases 
predicting, use of the data "to shift re-
sources internally" (Eaton), to bring about 
"fundamental changes in the way library 
collections are managed" (Axford), or "to 
tailor collections more precisely to user 
needs" (Nutter), reference was made to 
an expected increased concern on the part 
of university administrators and funding 
agencies about how libraries allocate their 
resources. Perhaps that has not come 
about. Perhaps, for the most part, librar-
ies serving research universities have not 
been subjected to the increased account-
ability that some saw coming. If the an-
ticipated heightened accountability has not 
materialized, then a powerful incentive for 
a shift in emphasis "from spending acqui-
sitions budgets on the basis of speculation 
to spending on the basis of demand" 
(Osburn) has not developed. This issue is 
of such significance that it deserves further 
exploration. 

NOTES 

1. Marilyn M . Roche, ARL/RLG Interlibrary Loan Cost Study (Washington, D.C.: ARL, 1993), 
1. 

2. Martha Kyrillidou, Kaylyn E. Hipps, and Kendon Stubbs, eds. & comps., ARL Statistics, 
1993- 94_(Washington, D .C.: ARL, 1995), 8. 

3. Roche, ARL/RLG Interlibrary Loan , 1. 
4. Nancy L. Eaton, "The Director's Role in the Acquisitions Dilemma," Journal of Library 

Administration 19, no. 2 (1993) : 3. 
5. Ibid., 4-5. 
6. Charles B. Osburn, "Collection Evaluation and Acquisitions Budgets: A Kaleidoscope in 

the Making," Journal of Library Adm inistration 17, no. 2 (1992): 5. 
7. I am indebted to Paul Metz, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, for the 

terms micro and global, which he used in his response. 
8. Data presented in a table may seem to be inconsistent with data reported in the text due 

to multiple responses of a single respondent. 
9. H . William Axford, "Collection Management: A New Dimension," Journal of Academic 

Librarianship 6 (Jan. 1981): 325-26, 328-29. 
10. Susan K. Nutter, "Online Systems and the Management of Collecti<?ns: Use and Implica-

tions," in Advances in Library Automation and Networking, ed. Joe A. Hewitt (Greenwich, Conn.: 
JAI Pr., 1987), 126. 

11 . Charles A. Hamaker, ''Management Data for Selection Decisions in Building Library Col-
lections," Journal of Library Administration 17, no. 2 (1992): 71. 

12. Charles A. Hamaker, "Time Series Data for Collection Development or: You Can't Intuit 
That," Library Acquisitions: Practice & Theory 19 (summer 1995): 195. 



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