PROLOGUE Worldwide C hallenr.:es to Nal'CII Strike Warfare is intended to expand th e dialog on th e context, environment, and challenges agaimt which U.S . Na\'(/1 Strike Wmfare will op erate no w and until 2015 . As U.S . Na\'01 Strike Wcnfare approaches th e next century, it does so with nwre .flexibility, responsil'eness , prec ision , and potency than e1·er bef are. Ho we\'er, th e challenges that it willface in th e decades ah ead are also more di1·erse and more demanding than e1•er hefore. Ju st as in th e m •er 200 tim es sin ce World War //that it has hee n called upon , U.S . Nal'CII Strike Wwfare will again be asked to resp01 d to crisis : ofi en th e .first U.S . .force on sce ne, and o.fien in locations far distant from hom e, without benefit of" allied support. This new context will nor .focus on historic U.S .So l'iet anim osities, hut rath er on new, emerging, major regional conflicts, or agg ression by unstable or rog ue states, or in resp onse to Intern ati onal A rm s Prol(f"eration , or Tran snational Criminal A ctil'ity. United States Naml Strike Wmfare will operate in an environment of dec reased U. S . base support (J\'erseas . Risin g ethnic nationalism , contractin g allian ces, budget pressures at home , and prol(f"eration of prec ision technology will highlig ht simultaneo usly th e 1•alu e of.forward presence and th e difficulties in sustaining it. In this new environm ent, .forward JW\'al presence and the impa ct ofna\'01 strike wmfare will becom e el'en more apparent and more l'aluah/e to our policy makers. Real-tim e, on-the-scene reporting ofcrises around th e world will encourage rapid and precise military resp onses. Cm ·erage will be integrat ed globally , with a space componellt , to .focus on military operations in wa ys yet unimagin ed . At th e sam e tim e, the penchant f or "surgical strikes" will make "so.fi" kills and "smart," precision weapons , weapons of choice . Public intoleran ce of hostage taking and loss of life generally will place greater emphasis on ":ero def ect " military operation s . Th e technology and lessons learn ed from Desert Shield/Desert Storm hm•e not bee n lost on regional actors , aspiring Third World Nations, ar International Criminal Carrels. Th e importan ce ofintegrated tacti cs, all-weath er operation s, command and control w(IJfare. stealth , prec ision weapons and applications of th e global positioning system are apprec iated hy all and pursued hy many. Ironically , th e West , itself will create many of th e challenges in technology proliferation in th e coming decades. Russia, srmggling to maintain its superpo wer statu s, will redu ce its aircra.fi and air defense industries , bur sri!! will be willing to sell ad1•an ced technology for hard currency to sustain irs research and development base. China , hoping to leap to "world class " status, will inl'est heal'ily in Western technology and pay for it , in p art , hy sales oflow cost alternatives. New and old actors like North Korea, Iran , and Iraq will buy new aircra.fi and air def"ense systems to adl'an ce th eir reg ional ambitions. To make th e rig ht choices .for th e Nm•y and th e Nation , it is important to understand th e context, em •ironm ent, and challenges that li e ahead by engagin g in th e dialog on th e Worldwide Challenges to Na\'01 Strike Warfare. During World War II, aircraft became an integral pa1t of naval strike warfare. The ability of aircraft to appear unexpectedly, anywhere within the battle space, made them particularly effective. The vulnerability of surface ships operating without air cover was demonstrated when 300 carrier-based aircraft sank the world's largest battleship afloat, the Japanese YAMATO, along with its six escorts, on 7 April 1945. The value of naval strike warfare is undiminished today, particularly with the addition of precisionguided bombs and cruise missiles. However, as aircraft, cruise mis ---, LOCKWOOD LIBHAh I UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO WORLD WAR II 1945 (Above left) Grumman TBF-llaunches torpedo. (Above) IJNS YAMATO under torpedo and bomb attack. siles, and precision-guided bombs The HMS SHEFFIELD (above) sank ajter being damaged by rm have grown in capability, so has the EXOCET antiship missile launched from an Argentinian SUPER sophistication of the air defense ETENDARD (abo1'e leji). systems used against them. AVAL STRIKE WARFARE TODAY. .. (Top) F-14 TOMCA T with TA RPS reconnaissance pod and (below) an amphibious ready group. Naval strike warfare enco mp asses the ra nge of wea pon s, pl atform s and tac ti cs des ig ned to proj ec t powe r asho re, on short notice, again st a w ide range of strateg ic, ope ration a l, and tactica l targets in the face of sophistica ted air defe nse syste ms, during d ay and night , in all weat he r co ndi tio ns . Swface am/ subsurface laun ched TOMA HA WK missiles. USS DWI GH T D. EISENHOWER (CVN 69) with aircraft on deck. 2 • • • RDNANCE ON TARGET! Destroyed highway bridge and hardened aircraft shelters (above), damaged communications dishes (right), and TOMAHAWK attack on revetted aircraft (below). The key to destroying an opposing combat force is to disrupt its infrastructure as well as to attack the forces them selves. Severing the link between national command authorities and senior tactical commanders will diminish coordinated and joint military operational effectiveness. Once lines of communication and routes of resupply and movement are elimi nat d, support to soldiers becomes difficult at best. Lacking nationally coordinated decisions and a full support structure, the forces can be destroyed piecemeal. Precision strike weapons have made naval strike warfare even more potent and accurate in modern targeting . FuNCTIONAL CoMPONENTS OF PRECISION STRIKE SURVEILLANCE MISSION TARGET TARGET DAMAGE AND TARGET ..... PLANNING -+ ACQUISITION .. ATTACK ASSESSMENT RECOGNITION .. ------------BI''.},:c•.· ., INTELLIGENCE I TARGET SELECTION OPERATIONS I STRIKE 3 ICJNITED STATES AIRCRAFT CARRIER POWER I USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN (CVN 72) at sea. UPON COMMISSIONING OF CVN 76 AND RETIREMENT OF USS KITTY HAWK (CV 63) IN 2002, OUR CARRIER FORCE WILL BE AS FOLLOWS: USS RONALD REAGAN (CVN 76) USS HARRY S. TRUMAN (CVN 75) USS JOHN C. STENNIS (CVN 74) ..~~:;; USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) .:~: uss ABRAHAM Uf\J_QQLN (CVN 72) USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN 71) USS CARL VINSON (CVN 70) USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER (CVN 69) USS NIMITZ (CVN 68) USS JOHN F. KENNEDY (CV 67) USS ENTERPRISE (CVN 65) USS CONSTELLATION (CV 64) The United States currently operates 12 versati le aircraft carriers with associated airwings. These systems represent the primary strike arm of the Navy. They are frequently called upon by national policy makers to conduct measured responses, from humanitarian support to combat. The forward presence of a carrier battle group is a concrete demonstration of U.S. interest in a region and can go far toward averting crises. The carrier airwing is composed of a number of aircraft types. The F/A-18 HORNET is the airwing's premier strike fighter. The introduction of the F/A-18 E/F SUPER HORNET will keep the family at the leading edge of capability. The F-14 TOMCAT is the finest interceptor in the world. It is being upgraded with a potent strike capability to give the TOMCAT a true multi-role mission. Strike force multipliers include the E-2C HAWKEYE early warning and command and control aircraft, the EA-6B PROWLER electronic warfare aircraft, and the ES-3A SHADOW signals intelligence collector. 4 ARRIERS: VERSATILE AND FLEXIBLE F-18 HORNET fires a S IDEWINDER missile. NvYSTRIKE AIRCRAFT The FIA-18E SUPER HORNET first flew on 29 November 1995. The Navy's premier strike fighter for the future is the F/A-18 ElF SUPER HORNET. It incorporates a number of improvemen ts over today's F/A-18 C/D including: • 25 % larger wing • new engmes • up to 40% more range • updated cockpit • additional weapons stations • reduced radar signature • increased survivability • growth potential The F/A-18 ElF will be able to emplo y a F-14TOMCAT wide variety of precision-guided weapons including laser-guided bombs and the The F-14 TOMCAT entered service in the mid-1970's new family of joint attack weapons and remains one of the premier air-to-air aircraft today. It is (JDAM and JSOW). This important being upgraded to launch precision-guided air-to-surface strike capability is achieved without weapons and will provide a multi-mission strike/escort compromising air-to -air performance. capability until at least 2010. 6 OMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILES TOMAHAWK cruise missile en route to its target. (Right) Iraqi Intelligence Service Building, June I993 The TOMAHAWK provides an effective strike capability against targets without putting a flight crew at risk. TOMAHAWK was proven during Desert Shield/Desert Storm and continued to demonstrate its benefits during subsequent actions in Iraq and Bosnia. The current production standard TOMAHAWK uses the global positioning system (GPS ) to allow greater mission flexibility. Future upgrades to the TOMAHAWK will contin ue to provide naval strike forces with a potent alternative to strikes by manned aircraft. TOMAHAWK's unique capabilities make it a capable complement to the carrier airwing. (Above) Samara Chemical Facility, Iraq, january 1991 Hard target kill test Lisina Mountain military radio relay, Bosnia, September 1995 7 A.NGE OF U.S. NAVAL STRIKE FORCES Forward presence remains an important part of U.S. Navy operations, as demonstrated in the over 200 responses to crises conducted by naval strike warfare assets since World War II. It allows the rapid establishment of control of the air, sea, and space en route to and in the theater of operations. In some cases, forward deployed naval forces may be the only option available in the early stages of a crisis. Forward presence means rapid employment of combat power where it is needed most. Many challenges and challengers will arise during the next two decades. The vast majority of them, if not all, will be within the range of a possible response by naval strike warfare forces. These forces will remain available to implement the policies of U.S. national decision makers. TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILES I AND REFUELED STRIKE AIRCRAFT CAN STRIKE TAGETS 600 -1100 MILES INLAND The earth's coastal zone accounts for only 8% ofthe world's surface area, yet hosts 26% ofthe world's agricultural productivity and major spawning areas, and houses 66% ofhumanity. Eighty percent ofall international trade is carried by ship-which is why 9 ofthe world's 10 largest cities and 33 ofthe top 50 are near coasts. 8 AVAL STRIKE WARFARE AND CRISES "Most fundamentally, our Naval Forces are designed to fight and win wars. Our most recent experiences, however, underscore the premise that the most important role of Naval Forces in situations short of war is to be engaged in forward areas, with the objectives ofpreventing conflicts and controlling crises." LEBANON PEACEKEEPING 1982-84 GULF OF SIDRA UBYA AUG 1981 IRANIAN HOSTAGE RESCUE MAY1980 MAYAGUEZ INCIDENT MAY 1975 VIETNAM WAR 1964-74 CYPRUS JAN-SEP 1964 CUBAN MISSILE OCT 1962 LEBANON CRISIS MAY-SEP 1958 SUEZ CRISIS OCT 1956 KOREAN CONFLICT 1~53 -THE HoNORABLE JoHN H. DALTON SECRETARY OF THE NAVY "FORWARD ... FROM THE SEA" EARNEST WILL TANKER ESCORT 1988-87 JUST CAUSE PANAMA DEC 1989 GULF OF SIDRA LIBYA JAN 1989 DESERT SHIELDJSTORM IRAQ 1990-91 SOUTHERN WATCH IRAQ 1992·95 RESTORE HOPE SOMAUA 1992·95 IRAQI INTEL HQ JUN 1993 DENY FLIGHT BOSNIA 1993-95 RESTORE DEMOCRACY HAm 1993-94 9 HE NEW CONTEXT Chief of Naval Operations Jeremy M. Boorda greets Commanderin-Chief of the Russian Navy Feliks N. Gromov. The decline of the Soviet threat has not removed the challenges faced by naval strike warfare. The Navy must be prepared to respond to various major regional conflicts that could emerge around the globe. North Korea still poses a major military challenge in the Far East, and exemplifies a region in which conflict could occur. North Korean Military Parade 10 •Rogue states or unstable nations are another example of where naval strike warfare could be tasked. State-sponsored terrorism or threats to U.S. citizens or diplomats often fall in the rogue state category. The wreckage of PAN AM 103 after terrorist attack. The Navy , by virtue of its forward deployed posture, is well equipped to monitor and respond to international arms proliferation or transnational criminal activity . United States naval forces are particularly effective in monitoring and enforcing Unjted Nations arms embargoes or detecting and reporting on narcotics smuggling. E-2C HAWKEYE Radar Surveillance Aircraft So while the prospect of global conflict has receded, the myriad challenges facing the nation still demand potent naval strike warfare forces, deployed forward and ready to respond to policy makers' requirements. HE NEWENVIRONMENT Declining U.S. Air and Naval Base s Political, environmental, budgetary, and military factors have conspired to dramatically reduce the number of U.S. operated overseas bases. Th e Declining DoD Budget The U.S. Navy has undergo ne requisite budget cuts in recent years. These cuts have forced the Navy to meet additional challenges with fewe r resources. Strike forces play an important role in thi s capability. Islamic Demonstration The rise of nationalism , transnational movements such as Islamic fundamentalism, and strained alliances have changed the world political landscape. The ability of naval strike forces to remain near world crisis points for ex tended time period s is growing in value. Marine coming ashore in Somalia, 1993. From the traditional media to the internet, the world is experiencing an information explosion. Mili tary operations will be conducted with worldwide, real-time media coverage. Tactical ballistic missile coverage in the Persian Gulf. The world's military forces have embraced the importance of preci sion-guided weapons. As these weapons enter its forces in numbers, they will alter the littoral e nvironment in which U .S. naval forces operate. 11 HALLENGES OF PROLIFERATION TODAY Air defense technologies span the spectrum ofcost and capability. The face of future conflicts has been dramatically altered by the spread of high technology sys tems. Regional powers are responding to the less ons of recent military actions including advanced tactics , night and adverse weather operations , information warfare, and the importance of stand-off and precis ion-guided weapons. In many cases, the West itself is the primary supplier of new military technologies that Western forces may face in combat. The integration of new e lectronics , a Western strength, appears to offer the most leverage for future air and air defense systems. Proliferation of these concepts can occur throug h direc t foreign military sales or through transfer of technologies that aid indigenou s development programs. Medium to low cost alternatives are being offered by Ru ss ia, China, and other suppliers. In the case of Ru ssia and China, these sa les offer a source of hard currency to continue weapons development and procurement. 12 HE BUILDERS: THE WEST-LEADING EDGE TECHNOLOGIES HIGH TECH ... MULTINATIONA L . .. LARGE INVESTMENTS . . • The West is develo ping a number of advanced a irc raft-re lated tec hnol ogies. Long range offe nsive combat will be a ided by sophisticated m ulti-mode radars and co mplementary active radar mi ss iles. Integ rated , a uto mated co unterm eas ures suites w ill improve defe nsive ca pability. C lose comb at imp roveme nts include ag ile fl y-by-w ire co nfig uratio ns, coupl ed w ith he lm et-mounted a im ing sys tems and ad va nced infrared mi ss iles. Western SAM developments include in creased mo bil ity and survivability. Adva nced tec hn o logy missile seeke rs will enh ance sys tem leth ality by using new porti ons of the e lectroni c spectrum and in corpo ratin g multi -mode des igns. Western industry leads the wo rld in te rms of level of so phisticati on and co mbat effectiveness of ae ro space equipm ent. M arket trend s after th e coll apse of the Sov iet U nion sho w th at systems of Wes tern o rig in are prefe rred by mos t militaries despite hig he r cost. M anufac turers will continu e to look to ex port sales to help defer th e ex tremel y hig h cost of developin g new a ircraft and s urface -to-air mi ss ile sys te ms. The growin g importance of export sales combined with a shrinking market will increase competition amon g vendors. This, in turn , may lead to earl y ex po rt of top-of-th e-line sys tems rath e r th an sa les of down grad ed or older ge neration weapon s. ASRAAM Dogfight Mis sile M edium Range Matra MICA 13 IGH TECHNOLOGY WEAPONS MARKET The United States and other aerospace industrial powers look to foreign sales to help maintain their manufacturing base. 14 YNERGY OF TECHNOLOGY The explosion in cost and complexity of strike warfare systems has forced militaries of the world to accept the fact that they can no longer afford to maximize a weapon system's performance across the entire spectrum of characteristics. Instead, finding the optimum blend of features to maximize mission effectiveness while at the same time holding costs at a reasonable level has become the primary goal of many weapons development programs. These boundaries on the development of strike warfare systems have increased the need for a synergistic approach to the development of aircraft and cruise missi les. Although some technologies such as long range cru ise missiles , countermeasures suites, and reduced signatures have the potential to dramatically effect mission success, it is not feasible to build affordable systems that rely entirely on one key technology to achieve their objective. The trend toward wel l balanced systems is typified by the new generation of multi-role fighter aircraft under development in Europe, Russia , and China. These aircraft mu st be ab le to handle a variety of tasks, from air-defense to reconnaissance to ship attack. In order to meet thi s wide range of missions, they carry capable avionics systems for e lectronic attack, defensive electron ic co untermeasures, information warfare, threat avoidance, and command and control. Other common features of this generation of fighters are reduction s in aircraft signature, increased aircraft agility, and ability to fire sophisticated stand-off weapons at both air and surface targets. Although not cheap, the synergistic ble nd of systems and capabi lities within these ai rcraft provides a cost effective capability across th entire range of anticipated challenges. 15 EY LEVERAGING TECHNOLOGIES: FLIGHT PERFORMANCE AND PROPULSION Next generation fighter aircraft will have outstanding mane uveri ng performance and ag ility, rel ying on unstable de lta wing and canard co nfi g uration s . Ru ss ia c urrently demonstrates the remarkable ag ility of their aircraft with the famous "Pugac hev Cobra" and "Hook" mane uvers. Although of questionable co mbat utility tod ay, these mane uvers are testimony to excellent aerody namics and engine integration. In the future, co upled with thrust vectori ng, these types of maneuvers co uld dramatically increase an aircraft's potential dominance in a dogfight. JAS-39 GRTPEN Future fighter powerplants will incorporate higher thrust-to-weight ratio s, and po ss ibly thrust vec toring for aircraft control. Digital e ngi ne controls will increase engine responsiveness, f ue l efficiency, and resistance to stall. Russian aircraft have demonstrated considerable agility. IRE CONTROL SENSORS The current trend in fighter radars is to incorporate true multi-mode, multifunction, and multi-target capability. Additional improvements include dramatically increased onboard computer-power, electronic scanning antennas, low probability of intercept operation, and increased reliability. The RBE-2 radar in test. Infrared search and track (IRST) systems are beginning to explo it the 8-14 micron band of the infrared spectrum. The signature of the aircraft in this band is derived from friction-induced skin heat and is hard to conceal. Although design of a reliable system in this band poses technolog ical challenges, there is potential to detect low radar signature targets. Infrared search offers an alternative to radar. Uniquely, Russia is pursuing expanded radar azimuth coverage ..... . EVOLVING RADAR COVERAGE IGNATURES "Important is the ability to resist enemy weapons ...This is achieved by radio electronic combat means. Such is a possible asymmetrical response to the challenge posed by stealth." -Russian Deputy Defense Minister, A. A. Kokoshin The United States leads the world in stea lth technology, followed by the United Kingdom , France, Germany, and Israel. Russ ia is developing its first fighter with a low radar c ro sssection and exporting treatments for fielded airframes . China is researching stealth applications and is likely to incorporate thi s technology in future aircraft. Every fighter in design today has a requirement to control its s ignature, particularly against rad ar. Tod ay's combat aircraft can be treated with radar a bso rbin g materials to achieve reasonable res ults for a moderate price . STEALTHINESS 1s•••• A FoRcE MuLTIPLIER A TECHNOLOGY DRIVER BUT.... PERISHABLE. Few nations will ha ve the eco nomic resources to buy true stealth a ircraft; therefore, designs will concentrate on reducing radar re turn s in key regions aro und the vehicle. At the same time, many of these countries are pursuing technolog ies to co unte r targets with redu ced sig natures. Sawtooth radar absorbing material on RAFALE. 18 AMMERS AND COUNTERMEASURES Future fighter survivability goals can be met through a balanced application of stealth and e lectronic co untermeasures. Low radar signature imp roves the effectiveness of jammers by reducin g the amount of powe r required to conceal the ai rcraft. Fighters will have moderate radar signature reduction co upl ed wit h very capab le and sop histicated co unte rm eas ures. Russ ia and France can be considered the world leade rs in airborne jamme r technology today, and continue to develop advanced sys tems. Russian. electronic warfare pod on an Su-30MK. Both signature reduction andjamming can be used to achieve similar results by denying intercept information, compressing intercept timelines, and reducing shot opportunities. (Clockwise from th e left) Th e Chinese Model974-J radarjammer (from a British design), th e Russian HIP H communications jammer, and th e Chinese NRJS radar jammer (from a Dutch design). Field commanders have recognized th e value of e lec tronic attack both on th e offensive and defensive side of the battle line. Air-, ea-, and land-based counterstrike jamme r platforms are prolife r ated by nume rou s countries and are an integra l pa rt of their warfare doctrines. Future electronic attack systems will attempt to deceive or deny nav igation and targetin g inform ation to aircraft and weapons. IR -TO -AIR WEAPONS Russia's 200-mile AAM-L concept. Extremely long range missiles are a unique Russian development. The Russians believe that weapo ns systems should engage targets near maximum senso r ran ge. Likely high value targets include heavy bombers, the E-2C HAWKEYE, AWACS, or JSTARs. The Russian AA-11 and I sraeli PYTHON 4 define the lead ing edge of dogfight missiles. Integrated with a helmet-mounted sig ht, these weapons can fire at targets approachin g 90 degrees off the fighter's nose. Future missiles will a lso increase firing range, provide lock-on after la unch capability, and employ imaging sensors that will reject co untermeasures. H elm et-mounted Sight 20 OMMAND AND CONTROL The individual components of an air defense net must be ab le to effectively interoperate. Modern highspeed command and control arc hitectures of Western design are preferred due to their processing power and flexibility. These sys tems allo w mix and match integrati on of diverse a ir defense e lements, e limin ati ng the need to purchase a complete a ir defense complex from the same s upplier. Command and control systems, with the ir ability to integ rate inputs from myriad active and pass ive se nsors, offer the g rea te st potenti al to counter stealth y vehicles. With sufficient process ing power, an air defense command and control nod e may be able to combine see ming ly insi g nificant data f rom num er ous surveillan ce sites into an engageable target trac k. ROTALE NG (New 21 URFACE-TO -AIR WEAPONS Modern U.S . and Allied strike aircraft combat losses are primarily due to surface-to-air missile (SAM) sys tems and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA)/man portable air defense system (MANPADS) [10% and 85 %, respectively, in the Vietnam War], while enemy fighter losses are from air-to-air engagements . The relatively low cost of grou nd-based air defen se systems compared to tactical aircraft make them an attractive option; however, very large numbers mu st be fielded to dominate the same volume of airspace as a few sophisticated fighters. MEDIUM RANGE LONG RANGE I-HAWK Today, Russia contin ues to lead the world in SAM design and proliferation. Programmed improvements in capability and electronic attack survivability keep their equipment at the forefront of sales. These systems provide overlapping coverage in range and altitude to defend against ai rcraft and low altitude cruise missile attack. Future threats will span the range from low power lasers and directed energy weapons to larger caliber anti-aircraft artillery. IR DEFENSE WEAPONS TRENDS A wide variety of surface-to-a ir mi ss iles has been des ig ned to co unte r a ircraft. Sys te ms range from fixed , lo ng-range strateg ic units throug h highly mo bil e battl efie ld des igns. Most SAM systems have so me ca pability to engage c rui se mi ss iles. Th e g rowin g recog nition of thi s threat has led to th e des ig n of specialized SAM systems to handle lo w fl ying, low sig nature targets. The Ru ss ian SA-l Oc is the pre mi er sys te m in the a nti c rui se mi ss ile are na. USSIA: STRUGGLING TO RETAIN SUPERPOWER STATUS Russian aviation industry's fighter production has fa llen over 85% since 1985, a decrease of appro ximate ly 9 .5 billion U.S . dollars. Joint fo re ign ventures and coope rative c iv ili an deve lopm ent are seen as a so urce of in come throu gh the lean yea rs. Until the eco nom y improves, the Ru ss ian Air Force will ope rate ai rc raft currentl y in service or upg rades to these des igns. Ultralights Under Construction with MiG-29 s in Mo scow DECLINE IN RUSSIAN AVIATION PRODUCTION Work continues o n a mu ch delayed fifth gene ration fig hte r (FGF), which could reac h initi al operatin g capability around 2015. In the near te rm , technologies developed for the FGF will begin to appear in ad va nced fo urth gene ratio n fig hters s uc h as the Su -3 5. E xport of the FGF, Su -35, or the ir subsystems to po tentia lly hos til e nations is of conce rn to defense planne rs. Russian Fifth Generation Fighter (FGF) model generated at th e Office ofN aval Intellige nce. 24 Prototype Russian MiG-21 Upgrade Russia expects s uccesses in th e potentia ll y lucrative wo rld w id e fig hte r upg rade market w ith the ir M iG-2 1-93. Additi on of the advanced , multi -mode KOPYO rad ar and AA-12, AA-10, and AA-11 mi ss iles w ill g ive th e seco nd ge nera tion M iG-2 1 airf rame near fo urth genera tion weapo ns system capabilit y at a f rac tion of the cost of a new ly prod uced fig hter. Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems (Clockwise, from th e left) range fro m wid ely prolife rated man-po rtab le units to Th e 2S6 ex treme ly capable SA-10 lo ng range rada r-guided air mis sile/gun defe nse systems. The ir success se llin g th ese syste ms system, SA -10, on the open market has been a va lu able so urce of and SA-14 inco me. By 2005, th e Ru ss ian fig hte r fo rce (a ir force, a ir call y inc reased so phi sticati on of the defense force , and nava l a ir force) will be approx iairc raft in servi ce. The fo rce m ay be mate ly one-third as large as its 1985 leve l. Thi s co mposed entire ly of fo urth and impro ved striking reducti on will be co untered by dramati-fo urth generatio n fig hte rs. 25 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Russian industry sources have stated that their fift h generation fig hter will be their first design to in corporate red uced radar s ignatures. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Fourth generation fighters like the MiG-29 and Su-27 re-empha ize maneuverability. The next generation will likely incorporate unconventional maneuverability in a quest for increased agility. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Russian fighters have paralleled the wo rldwid e tre nd toward larger, longer range aircraft. The point defense MiG-29 is a notable exception to the rule . Although less costly than their Western counterparts, Russia's fighter designs have not been ab le to escape rapidly esca lating prices. 26 Russia has been developing sea-based aviation for over 30 years. Early ships and airwings were the MOSKVA Class and its Ka-25 helicopter comple ment, and the KIEV Class and its Yak-38 attack aircraft. These units provided only a modest sea-based aviation capabi lity. RUSSIA OPERATES THE LARGEST CARRIER OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES Su-27K on approach to the ADMIRAL KUZNETSOV Russia's newest class of aviation ships is repreRussia retains its goal of developing a significant sented by a single unit, the ADMIRAL fleet of modern carriers and sea-based aircraft. The KUZNETSOV. It is the first Russian ship capable of operational capability of their newest carrier, operating modern multi-role fighters like the Sukhoi KUZNETSOV, was demonstrated in its early 1996 Su-27K. KUZNETSOV's airwing represents a deployment to the Mediterranean. dramatic improvement in sea-based air defense. 27 HINA: TAKING THE TECHNOLOGY LEAP China's indigenous designs are very simple and do not have great combat effectiveness; however, its aviation industry is gaining the required technologies to build firstrate aircraft. China has shown a willingness to spend some of its newfound wealth on advancing the industry's technological level with an eye toward eventual selfsufficiency. United States technology has been acquired through Israel in the form of the Lavi fighter and possibly SAM technology. Also, Russia's dire economic straits have given China an unexpected windfall of military aircraft technology. RECENT ExPORTS Recent exports have centered around the F-7 , a Chinese-built version of the 1950's designed MiG-21. It fills a njche at the low end of the export market for inexpensive, albeit less capable, fighter aircraft. 28 China's air force is undergoing a reduction in numbers. In 1985 , the force numbered over 4,300 fighters, but less than 1% were from the same generation as the U.S. F-4 PHANTOM II and over 99 % were older. As China developed its fighter force modernization plans, they purchased 48 Russian Su-27SK fighters to bridge the gap until the indigenously built point defense F-1 0 enters service after 2000. The proportion of modern fighters in the force will grow to over 25 % . CHINESE CARRIER DEVELOPMENTS Chinese model ofan aircraft carrier. 29 The Chinese Navy has given the development of aircraft carriers top priority. They are viewed as e sential for Chinese enforcement of disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea. A report of the National People's Congress indicated that two 48 ,000-ton ships with a complement of up to 40 fixed-wing aircraft will be built by 2005. A number of fighters, including the new F-1 0, are being considered for at-sea basing. North Korea's air defense purchases include third generation MiG-23 aircraft, long range SA-5 surface-toair missiles, man-portable air defen se infrared missile sys tems , and various anti-aircraft artillery. Aircraft buys also include 15 fourth generation MiG-29s and AA -lOa radar mi ssiles from Ru ssia. The mo st capable SAM purchased is the very long range SA-5 . North Korea will continue to rely heavily on antiaircraft artillery. Their efforts to continue modernization will be hampered by their poor economy and increasing political i alation. Iran is actively upgrading its air defense capabil ity. They turned to Ru ssia fo r hi gh e nd sys tems and to China fo r simpler, cheaper pl atfo rm s. Recent purchase include th e MiG -29 w ith AA-11 and AA-lOa mi ss iles, the F-7 fig hte r, and SA-5 SAMs. Iran also ho lds a number of Iraqi aircraft from the Gulf War and has integ rated so me of the m into its ow n a ir fo rce. Chinese-built F-7 MiG-29 Iran will continue to slowly mod e rnize its forces despite a weakenin g econom y. In the future th ey could be pu shed farth er by a res urgent Iraqi military build-up. 3 1 CROTA LE NG (Ne w Generation) Duss ault MIRAGE F-1 EQ Iraq maintain ed a modem , well-equipped a ir fo rce thro ug hout the 198 0s. New equipm ent, includin g th e MIRAGE F-1 fig hter-bom ber, was purchased to re place Iran-Iraq war losses. Sophi sticated Frenc h surface-to-a ir sys tem s (CROTALE and ROLA D) were a lso ac quired . Although Iraq wishes to rebuild its air and air defense forces, stiflin g sanc ti ons remain in place . If these sa nctions are lifted , Iraq is li kely to be an ac tive marketplace for intense arm s sa les co mpetition . 32 OW STRIKE WARFARE COMPETES: SYNERGY F-14 TOMCAT drops laser guided bombs. The United States and its allies have developed new concepts for conducting warfare. This change was made possible, in large part, through the refinement of smart weapons. The dramatic success of these weapons in recent actions has exposed potential weaknesses in military forces throughout the world. As has been addressed in this publication , counters to our current military technology are being con sidered around the globe. To retain the overwhelming advantages we enjoy today, the United States must remain engaged in the continuing research and development of promising new technologies and maintain its high levels of proficiency. This development cycle takes well over 10 years to complete, leading to the conclusion that we must already be considering technologies we wish to field in the 2015 timeframe. New version of the F/A-18 and the F IA-18D HORNET fires a rocket. TOMAHAWK respond to the challenges anticipated in the near term , but research and development by those who will build the weapons of our adversaries has not stopped. Synergy of technologies is the key to overall combat effectiveness of strike warfare forces. Studies have concluded that these forces will be suitable for future assigned missions, major campaigns, and contingency operations. Stand-off weapons, tactics , flight pelformance, signature reduction, electronic and information warfare systems have been blended to ensure the continued advantage of U.S. Naval strike warfare forces over potential opponents. As can be seen on the following pages, current and planned naval aircraft are well positioned to meet the future 's challenge. EA-68 PROWLER jamming aircraft with antiradar missiles. TOMAHAWK Cruise Missile 33 HE COMPETITION. .. All aircraft are designed to optimize particular capabilities. The F/A-18 ElF provides an ideal blend ofcharacteristics to achieve excellent overall performance. Particular strengths ofthe SUPER HORNET include the signature, radar, and radar missiles. The MiG-29 has excelle nt dash speed, well over Mach 2.0. It also canies one of the best dogfight missiles in servi ce today, the AA-11 , and will likely carry its fo llow-on. The F-10 represents a dramatic step forward fo r Chinese military aviation. The airc raft has particularly good agility. The Su-35 is a large aircraft with excellent range and speed. It carries adva nced missiles, including the active radar AA-12 and the AA-11 dogfight weapon. Like the F/A-18, thf! French RAFALE incorporates an excellent balance of characteristics. Its canard/delta wing config uration makes it extreme ly maneuverable. 34 IGHTER AIR COMBAT COMPARISON The F/A-18 ElF will enjoy a technological advantage over potential opponents until Russia's fifth generation fighter enters service around 2015. 35 ..... THE UTLOOK "We are not the only nation with competence in defense science and technology. To sustain the lead which brought us victory during Desert Storm ... recognizing that over time other nations will develop comparable capabilities, we must... invest in the next generation ofdefense technologies." -THE HONORABLE WILLIAM ]. PERRY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Today, United States naval strike warfare units enjoy broad technological superiority over any potential opponent. This edge, however, will be eroded over time as proliferation is a fact of life in the modern world and cannot be prevented. Advanced technologies that are likely to proliferate and are of the highest concern to U.S. Navy aircraft and cruise missile developers include the following: • Advanced radars: Providing increased capability to detect low altitude and low signature targets and decreasing traditional warning clues. • Active radar seeker missiles: Increasing lethality and multi-target capability for medium range air-to-air and surface-to-air systems. Automated, integrated countermeasures suites: Providing a bewildering array of deceptive and noise techniques to comp licate all facets of an attack. • Helmet-mounted aiming systems with off-boresite missiles: Providing fir st shot opportunities in the dogfight arena. Reduced signatures: Shortening reaction and warning times and complicating targeting. Despite the proliferation ofadvanced conventional weapons systems, only if Russia returns to its previous military posture, or if China fully modernizes its forces, would the potential exist to deny U.S. naval stri ke forces completion of their goals. Foreign air and air defense forces are designed around the goal of defeating regional rivals rather than defeating the United States in an all-out military effort. Emerging regional powers will continue to purchase advanced aircraft and surface-to-air missile system s with an eye toward achieving superiority over potentially hostile neighbors. Ifdrawn into a regional conflict, U.S. naval forces could find themselves techno logically challenged by selected foreign systems. Although these systems do not give a potential opponent the capability to defeat a U .S. led force, they could make the task more difficult and more costly. 36 U.S. Naval Strike Forces will continue to be tested by modern advancements in foreign air defenses. We are meeting this challenge through the introduction oftechnologically improved warjighting systems like the F/A-18 El F am/ the newest variants ofthe TOMAHAWK." -ADM Jeremy M. BooRDA CHIEF OF NAVAL OPERATIONS lllliM~~~~~~Iiliil~~[~\11 3 9072 02312630 7