GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR F.V0i>r BERNHARDI BOUGHT WITH THE INCOME FROM THE SAGE ENDOWMENtVuND THE GIFT OF 1S91 dj.nm ^ki'.j. Cornell University Library 3 1924 031 165 206 olin.anx Cornell University Library The original of tliis book is in tine Cornell University Library. There are no known copyright restrictions in the United States on the use of the text. http://www.archive.org/details/cu31 924031 1 65206 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR BY GENERAL FRIEDRICH VON BERNHARDI TRANSLATED BY ALLEN H. POWLES AUTHORIZED EDITION NEW YORK LONGMANS, GREEN, AND CO. FOURTH AVENUE & 30TH STREET 1914 Authorized American Edition All rights reserved Copyright, igiz, by J. G. GottQ,'sche Buchhandlung Nachfolger Stuttgart J. J. Little & Ives Co. New York PREFACE All the patriotic sections of the German people were greatly excited during the summer and autumn of 191 1. The conviction lay heavy on all hearts that in the settle- ment of the Morocco dispute no mere commercial or co- lonial question of minor importance was being discussed, but that the honour and future of the German na- tion were at stake. A deep rift had opened between the feeling of the nation and the diplomatic action of the Government. Public opinion, which was clearly in favour of asserting ourselves, did not understand the dangers of our political position, and the sacrifices which a boldly- outlined policy would have demanded. I cannot say whether the nation, which undoubtedly in an overwhelm- ing majority would have gladly obeyed the call to arms, would have been equally ready to bear permanent and heavy burdens of taxation. Haggling about war contribu- tions is as pronounced a characteristic of the German Reichstag in modern Berlin as it was in medieval Regens- burg. These conditions have induced me to publish now the following pages, which were partly written some time ago. -| Nobody can fail to see that we have reached a crisis in our national and political development. At such times it is necessary to be absolutely clear on three points : the goals to be aimed at, the difficulties to be surmounted, and the sacrifices to be made. The task I have set myself is to discuss these matters, stripped of all diplomatic disguise, as clearly and con- iii iv PREFACE vincingly as possible. It is obvious that this can only be done by taking a national point of view. Our science, our literature, and the warlike achieve- ments of our past, have made me proudly conscious of belonging to a great civilized nation which, in spite of all the weakness and mistakes of bygone days, must, and as- suredly will, win a glorious future; and it is out of the fulness of my German heart that I have recorded my con- victions. I believe that thus I shall most effectually rouse ithe national feeling in my readers' hearts, and strengthen the national purpose. THE AUTHOR. October, 1911. CONTENTS PAGES PREFACE ........ iii— iv INTRODUCTION Power of the peace idea — Causes of the love of peace in Germany — Gerijian consciousness of strength — ^Lack of definite political aims — Perilous situation of Germany and the conditions of successful self-assertion — Need to test the authority of the peace idea, and to explain the tasks and aims of Germany in the light of history . 9 — is CHAPTER I THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR Pacific ideals and arbitration — The biological necessity of war — The duty of self-assertion — The fight of conquest — The struggle for employment — War a moral obligation — Beneficent results of war — War from the Christian and from the materialist standpoints — Arbitration and international law — Destructiveness and im- morality of peace aspirations — Real and Utopian humanity — Dangerous results of peace aspirations in Germany — The duty of the State ........ 16 — ^37 CHAPTER II THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR Bismarck and the justification of war — The duty to fight — The teach- ing of history — War only justifiable on adequate grounds — The foundations of political morality — Political and individual morality — The grounds for making war — The decision to make war — The responsibility of the statesman ..... 38 — SS CHAPTER III A BRIEF SURVEY OF GERMANY'S HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT The ways of Providence in history — Christianity and the Germans — The Empire and the Papacy — Breach between the German World Empire and the revived spiritual power — Rise of the great States of Europe and political downfall of Germany after the Thirty Years' War — Rise of the Prussian State — The epoch of the Revo- lution and the War of Liberation — Intellectual supremacy of Germany — ^After the War of Liberation — Germany under Wil- liam I. and Bismarck — Change in the conception of the State and the principle of nationality — New economic developments and the World Power of England — Rise of other World Powers — Socialism, and how to overcome it — German science and art — Internal disintegration of Germany and her latent strength . 56 — 71 vi CONTENTS CHAPTER IV GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION pages Grounds of the intellectual supremacy of Germany — Germany's rSle as spiritual and intellectual leader — Conquest of religious and social obstacles — Inadequacy of our present political position. — To secure what we have won our first duty — Necessity of in- creasing our political power — Necessity of colonial expansion — Menace to our aspirations from hostile Powers . . 72 — 84 CHAPTER V WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL Points of view for judging of the political situation — The States of the Triple Alliance — The political interests of France and Russia — The Russo-French Alliance — The._ policy of Great EiitaJn^- America and the rising World PowSsTSf "the tax Kas^^^The im- portance of Turkey — Spain and the minor States of Europe — Perilous position of Germany — World power or downfall — In- crease of political power: how to obtain it — German colonial policy — "The principle of the balance of power in Europe — Neutral States — The principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other States — Germany and the rules of international politics — The foundations of our internal strength . . . 85 — 114 CHAPTER VI THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMY FOR WAR Its necessity — Its twofold aspect — The educational importapce of military efficiency — Different military systems — Change in the nature of military efficiency due to the advance of civilization — Variety of methods of preparation for war — The armaments of minor States — The armaments of the Great Powers — Harmonious development of all elements of strength — Influence-on armaments of different conceptions of the duties of the State — Permanent factors to be kept in sight in relation to military preparedness — Statecraft in this connection ..... 115 — 129 CHAPTER VII THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR Our opponents — The French army — The military power of Russia — The land forces of England — The military power of Germany and Austria; of Italy — The Turkish army: — The smaller Balkan States — The Roumanian army — The armies of the lesser States of Central Europe — Greece and Spain — The fleets of the principal naval Powers— The enmity of France — The hostility of England — Russia's probable behaviour in a war against Germany — The military situation of Germany — Her isolation — What will be at stake in our next war — Preparation for war . , . 130 — 154 CONTENTS vii CHAPTER VIII THE NEXT NAVAL WAR pages England's preparations for a naval war against Germany — Germany's first measures against England — England and the neutrality of the small neighbouring States — The importance of Denmark — Com- mercial mobilization — The two kinds of blockade: The close blockade and the extended blockade — England's attack on our coasts — Co-operation of the air-fleet in their defence — The decisive battle and its importance — Participation of France and Russia in a German-English war ...... iss — 166 CHAPTER IX THE CRUCIAL QUESTION Reciprocal relations of land and sea power — The governing points of view in respect of war preparations — Carrying out of universal military service — The value of intellectual superiority — Masses, , weapons, and transport in modern war — Tactical efficiency and the quality of the troops — The advantage of the offensive — Points to be kept in view in war preparations — Refutation of the prevail- ing restricted notions on this head — The Ersatzreserve — New formations — Employment of the troops of the line and the new formations — Strengthening of the standing army — The importance of personality ....... 167—182 CHAPTER X ARMY ORGANIZATION Not criticism wanted of what is now in existence, but its further development — Fighting power and tactical efficiency — Strength' of the peace establishment — Number of officers and N.C.O.'s, especially in the infantry — Relations of the different arms to each other — Distribution of machine guns — Proportion between in- fantry and artillery — Lessons to be learned from recent wars with regard to this — Superiority at the decisive point — The strength of the artillery and tactical efficiency — Tactical efficiency of modern armies — Tactical efficiency and the marching depth of an army corps — Importance of the internal organization of tactical units — Organization and distribution of field artillery; of heavy field howitzers— Field pioneers and fortress pioneers— Tasks of the cavalry and the air-fleet — Increase of the cavalry and formation of cyclist troops — Tactical organization of the cavalry — Develop- ment of the air-fleet — Summary of the necessary requirements — Different ways of carrying them out — Importance of governing points of view for war preparations .... 183 — 205 CHAPTER XI TRAINING AND EDUCATION The spirit of training — Self-dependence and the employment of masses — Education in self-dependence — Defects in our training for war on the grand scali — Need of giving a new character to our viii CONTENTS PAGES manoeuvres and to the training of our commanders — Practical training of the artillery — Training in tactical eiSciency— Practice in marching under war conditions — Training of the train ofl&cers and column leaders — Control of the General Staff by the higher commanders — Value of manoeuvres: how to arrange them — Pre- liminary theoretical training of the higher commanders — Training of the cavalry and the airmen; of the pioneers and commissariat troops — Promotion of intellectual development in the army — Trsiining in the military academy .... 206 — 225 CHAPTER XII PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR The position of a World Power implies naval strength — Development of German naval ideals — The task of the German fleet; its strength — Importance of coast defences — Necessity of accelerating our naval armaments — The building of the fleet — The institution of the air-fleet — Preliminary measures for a war on commerce — Mobilization — General points of view with regard to preparations for the naval war — ^Lost opportunities in the past . . 226 — 240 CHAPTER XIII THE ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION The universal importance of national education— Its value for the army — Hurtful influences at work on it — Duties of the State with regard to national health — Work and sport — The importance of the school — The inadequacy of our national schools — Military education and education in the national schools — Methods of instruction in the latter — Necessity for their reform — Continuation schools^ — Influence of national education on the Russo-Japanese War — Other means of national education — The propaganda of action ........ 241 — 259 CHAPTER XIV FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL PREPARATION FOR WAR Duties of the State in regard to war preparations — The State and national credit — The financial capacity of Germany — Necessity of new sources of revenue — The imperial right of inheritance — Policy of interests and alliances — Moulding and exploitation of the political situation — The laws of political conduct — Interaction of military and political war preparations — Political preparations for our next war — Governing factors in the conduct of German policy ........ 260 — 282 EPILOGUE The latest political events — Conduct of the German Imperial Govern- ment — The arrangement with France — ^Anglo-French relations and the attitude of England — The requirements of the situation 283 — 288 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR INTRODUCTION The value of war for the political and moral development of mankind has been criticized by large sections of the modern civilized world in a way which threatens to weaken the defensive powers of States by undermining the war- like spirit of the people. Such ideas are widely dissemi- nated in Germany, and whole strata of our nation seem to have lost that ideal enthusiasm which constituted the greatness of its history. With the increase of wealth they live for the moment, they are incapable of sacrificing the enjoyment of the hour to the service of great conceptions, and close their eyes complacently to the duties of our future and to the pressing problems of international life which await a solution at the present time. We have been capable of soaring upwards. Mighty deeds raised Germany from political disruption and feeble- ness to the forefront of European nations. But we do not seem willing to take up this inheritance, and to advance alorjg the path of development in politics and culture. We tremble at our own greatness, and shirk the sacrifices it demands from us. Yet we do not wish to renounce the claim which we derive from our glorious past. How rightly Fichte once judged his countrymen when he said the Ger- man can never wish for a thing by itself; he must always wish for its contrary also. The Germans were formerly the best fighting men and the most warlike nation of Europe. For a long time they have proved themselves to be the ruling people of the Con- tinent by the power of their arms and the loftiness of their ideas. Germans have bled and conquered on countless bat- lo GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR tlefields in every part of the world, and in late years have shown that the heroism of their ancestors still lives in the descendants. In striking contrast to this military apti- tude they have to-day become a peace-loving — an almost "too" peace-loving — nation. A rude shock is needed to awaken their warlike instincts, and compel them to show their military strength. This strongly-marked love of peace is due to various causes. It springs first from the good-natured character of the German people, which finds intense satisfaction in doc- trinaire disputations and partisanship, but dislikes push- ing things to an extreme. It is connected with another characteristic of the German nature. Our aim is to be just, and we strangely imagine that all other nations with whom we exchange relations share this aim. We are always ready to consider the peaceful assurances of foreign diplomacy and of the foreign Press to be no less genuine and true than our own ideas of peace, and we obstinately resist the view that the political world is only ruled by interests and never from ideal aims of philanthropy. "Justice," Goethe says aptly, "is a quality and a phantom of the Germans." We are always inclined to assume that disputes between States can find a peaceful solution on the basis of justice without clearly realizing what inter- national justice is. An additional cause of the love of peace, besides those which are rooted in the very soul of the German people, is the wish not to be disturbed in commercial life. The Germans are born business men, more than any others in the world. Even before the beginning of the Thirty Years' War, Germany was perhaps the greatest trading Power in the world, and in the last forty years Germany's trade has made marvellous progress under the renewed expansion of her political power. Notwith- standing our small stretch of coast-line, we have created in a few years the second largest merchant fleet in the world, and our young industries challenge competition with all the great industrial States of the earth. German trad- ing-houses are established all over the world ; German mer- INTRODUCTION n chants traverse every quarter of the globe ; a part, indeed, of English wholesale trade is in the hands of Germans, who are, of course, mostly lost to their own country. Under these conditions our national wealth has increased with rapid strides. Our trade and our industries — owners no less than em- ployes — do not want this development to be interrupted. They believe that peace is the essential condition of com- merce. They assume that free competition will be con- ceded to us, and do not reflect that our victorious wars have never disturbed our business life, and that the po- litical power regained by war rendered possible the vast progress of our trade and commerce. Universal military service, too, contributes to the love of peace; for war in these days does not merely affect, as formerly, definite limited circles, but the whole nation suf- fers alike. All families and all classes have to pay the same toll of human lives. Finally comes the effect of that universal conception of peace so characteristic of the times — the idea that war in itself is a sign of barbarism un- worthy of an aspiring people, and that the finest blossoms of culture can only unfold in peace. Under the many-sided influence of such views and as- pirations, we seem entirely to have forgotten the teaching which once the old German Empire received with "as- tonishment and indignation" from Frederick the Great, that "the rights of States can only be asserted by the liv- ing power"; that what was won in war can only be kept by war; and that we Germans, cramped as we are by po- litical and geographical conditions, require the greatest efforts to hold and to increase what we have won. We regard our warlike preparations as an almost insupport- able burden, which it is the special duty of the German Reichstag to lighten so far as possible. We seem to have forgotten that the conscious increase of our armament is not an inevitable evil, but the most necessary precondition of our national health, and the only guarantee of our in-, ternational prestige. We are accustomed to regard war/ as a curse, and refuse to recognize it as the greatest factoij in the furtherance of culture and power. 12 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Besides this clamorous need of peace, and in spite of its continued justification, other movements, wishes, and efforts, inarticulate and often unconscious, live in the depths of the soul of the German people. The agelong dream of the German nation was realized in the political union of the greater part of the German races and in the founding of the German Empire. Since then there lives in the hearts of all (I would not exclude even the sup- porters of the anti-national party) a proud consciousness of strength, of regained national unity, and of increased political power. This consciousness is supported by the fixed determination never to abandon these acquisitions. The conviction is universal that every attack upon these conquests will rouse the whole nation with enthusiastic unanimity to arms. We all wish, indeed, to be able to maintain our present position in the world without a conflict, and we live in the belief that the power of our State will steadily increase without our needing to fight for it. We do not at the bottom of our hearts shrink from such a conflict, but we look towards it with a certain calm confidence, and are inwardly resolved never to let ourselves be degraded to an inferior position without strik- ing a blow. Every appeal to force finds a loud response in the hearts of all. Not merely in the North, where a proud,, efficient, hard-working race with glorious tradi- tions has grown up under the laurel-crowned banner of Prussia, does this feeHng thrive as an unconscious basis of all thought, sentiment, and volition, in the depth of the soul; but in the South also, which has suffered for centuries under the curse of petty nationalities, the haughty pride and ambition of the German stock live in the heart of the people. Here and there, maybe, such emotions slumber in the shade of a jealous particularism, overgrown by the richer and more luxuriant forms of social inter- course; but still they are animated by latent energy; here, too, the_ germs of mighty national consciousness await their awakening. "" Thus the political power of our nation, while fully alive below the surface, is fettered externally by this love of peace. It fritters itself away in fruitless bickerings and INTRODUCTION 13 doctrinaire disputes. We no longer have a clearly-defined political and national aim, which grips the imagination, moves the heart of the people, and forces them to unity of action. Such a goal existed, until our wars of unifica- tion, in the yearnings for German unity, for the fulfilment of the Barbarossa legend. A great danger to the healthy, continuous growth of our people seems to me to lie in the lack of it, and the more our political position in the world is threatened by external complications, the greater is this danger. Extreme tension exists between the Great Powers, not- withstanding all peaceful prospects for the moment, and it is hardly to be assumed that their aspirations, which con- flict at so many points and are so often pressed forward with brutal energy, will always find a pacific settle- ment. In this struggle of the most powerful nations, which employ peaceful methods at first until the differences be- tween them grow irreconcilable, our German nation is beset on all sides. This is primarily a result of our geo- graphical position in the midst of hostile rivals, but also because we have forced ourselves, though the last-comers, the virtual upstarts, between the States which have earlier gained their place, and now claim our share in the do- minion of this world, after we have for centuries been paramount only in the realm of intellect. We have thus injured a thousand interests and roused bitter hostilities. It must be reserved for a subsequent section to explain the political situation thus affected, but one point can be mentioned without further consideration: if a violent so- lution of existing difficulties is adopted, if the political crisis develops into military action, the Germans would have a dangerous situation in the midst of all the forces brought into play against them. On the other hand, the issue of this struggle will be decisive of Germany's whole future as State and nation. We have the most to win oif lose by such a struggle. We shall be beset by the greatesli perils, and we can only emerge victoriously from this strug- gle against a world of hostile elements, and successfully carry through a Seven Years' War for our position as a 14 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR World Power, if we gain a start on our probable enemy as soldiers; if the army which will fight out battles is sup- ported by all the material and spiritual forces of the na- tion; if the resolve to conquer lives not only in our troops, but in the entire united people which sends these troops to fight for all their dearest possessions. These were the considerations which induced me to re- gard war from the standpoint of civilization, and to study its relation to the great tasks of the present and the future which Providence has set before the German people as the greatest civilized people known to history. From this standpoint I must first of all examine the aspirations for peace, which seem to dominate our age and threaten to poison the soul of the German people, according to their true moral significance. I must try to prove that war is not merely a necessary element in the life of nations, but an indispensable factor of culture, in which a true civilized nation finds the highest expression of strength and vitality. I must endeavour to develop from the history of the Gerinan past in its connec- tion with the conditions of the present those aspects of the question which may guide us into the unknown land of the future. The historical past cannot be killed; it exists and works according to inward laws, while the present, too, imposes its own drastic obligations. No one need passively submit to the pressure of circumstances; even States stand, like the Hercules of legend, at the part- ing of the ways. They can choose the road to pro- gress or to decadence. "A favoured position in the world will only become effective in the life of nations by the conscious human endeavour to use it." It seemed to me, therefore, to be necessary and profitable, at this parting of the ways of our development where we now stand, to throw what light I may on the different paths which are open to our people. A nation must fully realize the prob- able consequences of its action; then only can it take de- liberately the great decisions for its future development, and, looking forward to its destiny with clear gaze, be pre- pared for any sacrifices which the present or future may^ demand. INTRODUCTION 15 These sacrifices, so far as they lie within the military and financial sphere, depend mainly on the idea of what Ger- many is called upon to strive for and attain in the present and the future. Only those who share my conception of the duties and obligations of the German people, and my conviction that they cannot be fulfilled without draw- ing the sword, will be able to estimate correctly my argu- ments and conclusions in the purely military sphere, and to judge competently the financial demands which spring out of it. It is only in their logical connection with the entire development, political and moral, of the State that the military requirements find their motive and their jus- tification. CHAPTER I THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR Since 1795, when Immanuel Kant published in his old age his treatise on "Perpetual Peace," many have con- sidered it an established fact that war is the destruction of all good and the origin of all evil. In spite of all that his- tory teaches, no conviction is felt that the struggle between nations is inevitable, and the growth of civilization is cred- ited with a power to which war must yield. But, undis- turbed by such human theories and the change of times, war has again and again marched from country to coun- try with the clash of arms, and has proved its destructive as well as creative and purifying power. It has not suc- ceeded in teaching mankind what its real nature is. Long periods of war, far from convincing men of the necessity of war, have, on the contrary, always revived the wish to exclude war, where possible, from the political intercourse of nations. This wish and this hope are widely disseminated even to-day. The maintenance of peace is lauded as the only goal at which statesmanship should aim. This unqualified desire for peace has obtained in our days a quite peculiar power over men's spirits. This aspiration finds its public expression in peace leagues and peace congresses ; the Press of every country and of every party opens its columns to it. The current in this direction is, indeed, so strong that the majority of Governments profess — outwardly, at any rate — that the necessity of maintaining peace is the real aim of their policy; while when a war breaks out the ag- gressor is universally stigmatized, and all Governments exert themselves, partly in reality, partly in pretence, to extinguish the conflagration. 16 THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR \^ Pacific ideals, to be sure, are seldom the real motive of their action. They usually employ the need of peace as a cloak under which to promote their own political aims. This was the real position of affairs at the Hague Con- gresses, and this is also the meaning of the action of the United States of America, who in recent times have ear- nestly tried to conclude treaties for the establishment of Arbitration Courts, first and foremost with England, but ^also with Japan, France, and Germany. No practical re- sults, it must be said, have so far been achieved. We can hardly assume that a real love of peace prompts these efforts. This is shown by the fact that precisely those Powers which, as the weaker, are exposed to aggres- sion, and therefore were in the greatest need of interna- tional protection, have been completely passed over in the American proposals for Arbitration Courts. It must con- sequently be assumed that very matter-of-fact political mo- tives led the Americans, with their commercial instincts, to take such steps, and induced "perfidious Albion" to accede to the proposals. We may suppose that England intended to protect her rear in event of a war with Ger- many, but that America wished to have a free hand in order to follow her policy of sovereignty in Central Amer- ica without hindrance, and to carry out her plans regarding the Panama Canal in the exclusive interests of America. Both countries certainly entertained the hope of gaining advantage over the other signatory of the treaty, and of winning the lion's share for themselves. Theorists and fanatics imagine that they see 'in the efforts of President Taft a great step forward on the path to perpetual peace, and enthusiastically agree with him. Even the Minister for Foreign Affairs in England, with well-affected idealism, termed the procedure of the United States an era in the history of mankind. This desire for peace has rendered most civilized nations aucEmic, and marks a decay of spirit and political courage such as has often been shown by a race of Epigoni. "It has always been," H. von Treitschke tells us, "the weary, spiritless, and exhausted ages which have played with the dream of perpetual peace." i8 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Everyone will, within certain limits, admit that the en- deavours to diminish the dangers of war and to mitigate the sufferings which war entails are justifiable. It is an incontestable fact that war temporarily disturbs industrial hfe, interrupts quiet economic development, brings wide- spread misery with it, and emphasizes the primitive bru- tality of man. It is therefore a most desirable consum- mation if wars for trivial reasons should be rendered im- possible, and if efforts are made to restrict the evils which follow necessarily in the train of war, so far as is com- patible with the essential nature of war. All that the Hague Peace Congress has accomplished in this limited sphere deserves, like every permissible humanization of war, uni- versal acknowledgment. But it is quite another matter if the object is to abolish war entirely, and to deny its necessary place in historical development. ""^Trhis aspiration is directly antagonistic to the great uni- versal laws which rule all life. War is a biological neces- sity of the first importance, a regulative element in the life of mankind which cannot be dispensed with, since without it an unhealthy development will follow, which excludes every advancement of the race, and therefore all real civilization. "War is the father of all things." * The sages of antiquity long before Darwin recognized this. The struggle for existence is, in the life of Nature, the basis of all healthy development. All existing things show themselves to be the result of contesting forces. So in the life of man the struggle is not merely the destructive, but the life-giving principle./ "To supplant or to be sup- planted is the essence of life," says Goethe, and the strong life gains the upper hand. The law of the stronger holds good everywhere. Those forms survive which are able to procure themselves the most favourable conditions of life, and to assert themselves in the universal economy of Nature. The weaker succumb.; This struggle is regu- lated and restrained by the unconscious sway of biological laws and by the interplay of opposite forces. In the plant world and the animal world this process is worked out in unconscious tragedy. In the human race it is consciously * r6\€iMi irar^p irdvrur (Heraclitus of Ephesus). THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 19 carried out, and regulated by social ordinances. The man of strong will and strong intellect tries by every means to assert himself, the ambitious strive to rise, and in this effort the individual is far from being guided merely by the consciousness of right. The life-work and the life- struggle of many men are determined, doubtless, by un- selfish and ideal motives, but to a far greater extent the less noble passions — craving for possessions, enjoyment and honour, envy and the thirst for revenge — de- termine men's actions. Still more often, perhaps, it is the need to live which brings down even natures of a higher mould into the universal struggle for existence and en- joyment. There can be no doubt on this point. The nation is made up of individuals, the State of communities. The motive whch influences each member is prominent in the whole body. It is a persistent struggle for possessions, power, and sovereignty, which primarily governs the rela- tions of one nation to another, and right is respected so far only as it is compatible with advantage. So long as there are men who have human feelings and aspirations, so long as there are nations who strive for an enlarged sphere of activity, so long will conflicting interests come into being and occasions for making war arise. "The natural law, to which all laws of Nature can 6e~" reduced, is the law of struggle. All intrasocial property, all thoughts, inventions, and institutions, as, indeed, the social system itself, are a result of the intrasocial struggle, in which one survives and another is cast out. The extra- social, the supersocial struggle which guides the external development of societies, nations, and races, is war. The . internal development, the intrasocial struggle, is man's ! daily work — the struggle of thoughts, feelings, wishes, sci- ences, activities. The outward development, the super- social struggle, is the sanguinary struggle of nations — war. In what does the creative power of this struggle consist? In growth and decay, in the victory of the one factor and in the defeat of the other ! This struggle is a creator, since \ it eliminates." * ^„. . * Clauss Wagner,. "Der Krieg als schafFendes Weltprinzip." 20 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR That social system in which the most efficient person- alities possess the greatest influence will show the greatest vitality in the intrasocial struggle. In the extrasocial strug- gle, in war, that nation will conquer which can throw into the scale the greatest physical, mental, moral, material, and political power, and is therefore the best able to de- fend itself. War will furnish such a nation with favourable vital conditions, enlarged possibilities of expansion and wid- ened influence, and thus promote the progress of mankind ; for it is clear that those intellectual and moral factors which insure superiority in war are also those which render pos- sible a general progressive development. They confer victory because the elements of progress are latent in them. Without war, inferior or decaying races would easily choke the growth of healthy budding elements, and a universal decadence would follow. "War," says A. W. von Schlegel, "is as necessary as the struggle of the elements in Nature." Now, it is, of course, an obvious fact that a peaceful ri- valry may exist between peoples and States, like that be- tween the fellow-members of a society, in all departments of civilized life — a struggle which need not always de- generate into war. Struggle and war are not identical. This rivalry, however, does not take place under the same conditions as the intrasocial struggle, and therefore can- not lead to the same results. Above the rivalry of indi- viduals and groups within the States stands the law, which takes care that injustice is kept within bounds, and that the right shall prevail. Behind the law stands the State, carmed with power, which it employs, and rightly so, not 1 merely to protect, but actively to promote, the moral and Ispiritual interests of society. But there is no impartial 'power that stands above the rivalry of States to restrain injustice, and to use that rivalry with conscious purpose to promote the highest ends of mankind. Between States the only check on injustice is force, and in morality and civilization each people must play its own part and pro- mote its own ends and ideals. If in doing so it comes into conflict with the ideals and views of other States, it must either submit and concede the precedence to the rival peo- THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 21 pie or State, or appeal to force, and face the risk of the real struggle — i.e., of war — in order to make its own views prevail. No power exists which can judge between States, and make its judgment prevail. Nothing, in fact, is left but war to secure to the true elements of progress the as- cendancy over the spirits of corruption and decay. It will, of course, happen that several weak nations unite and form a superior combination in order to defeat a na- tion which in itself is stronger. This attempt will succeed for a time, but in the end the more intensive vitality will prevail. The allied opponents have the seeds of corruption in them, while the powerful nation gains from a temporary reverse a new strength which procures for it an ultimate victory over numerical superiority. The history of Ger- many is an eloquent example of this truth. Struggle is, therefore, a universal law of Nature, and the instinct of self-preservation which leads to struggle is acknowledged to be a natural condition of existence. "Man is a fighter." Self-sacrifice is a renunciation of life, whether in the existence of the individual or in the life of States, which are agglomerations of individuals. The first and paramount law is the assertion of one's own inde- pendent existence. By self-assertion alone can the State maintain the conditions of life for its citizens, and insure them the legal protection which each man is entitled to claim from it. This duty of self-assertion is by no means sat- isfied by the mere repulse of hostile attacks; it includes the obligation to assure the possibility of life and develop- ment to the whole body of the nation embraced by the State. Strong, healthy, and flourishing nations increase in num- bers. From a given moment they require a continual ex- pansion of their frontiers, they require new territory for the accommodation of their surplus population. Sinc6~j almost every part of the globe is inhabited, new territory / must, as a rule, be obtained at the cost of its possessors/ — that is to say, by conquest, which thus becomes a law oil necessity. The right of conquest is universally acknowledged. At first the procedure is pacific. Over-populated countries pour 22 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR a stream of emigrants into other States and territories. These submit to the legislature of the new country, but try to obtain favourable conditions of existence for them- selves at the cost of the original inhabitants, with whom they compete. This amounts to conquest. The right of colonization is also recognized. Vast ter- ritories inhabited by uncivilized masses are occupied by more highly civilized States, and made subject to their rule. Higher civilization and the correspondingly greater power are the foundations of the right to annexation. This right is, it is true, a very indefinite one, and it is impossi- ble to determine what degree of civilization justifies annexa- tion and subjugation. The impossibility of finding a legitimate limit to these international relations has been the cause of many wars. The subjugated nation does not recog- nize this right of subjugation, and the more powerful civi- lized nation refuses to admit the claim of the subjugated to independence. This situation becomes peculiarly criti- cal when the conditions of civilization have changed in the course of time. The subject nation has, perhaps, adopted higher methods and conceptions of life, and the difference in civilization has consequently lessened. Such a state of things is growing ripe in British India. Lastly, in all times the right of conquest by war has been admitted. It may be that a growing people cannot win colonies from uncivilized races, and yet the State wishes to retain the surplus population which the mother-country can no longer feed. Then the only course left is to acquire the necessary territory by war. Thus the instinct of self- preservation leads inevitably to war, and the conquest of foreign soil. It is not the possessor, but the victor, who then has the right. The threatened people will see the point of Goethe's lines : "That which thou didst inherit from thy sires, In order to possess it, must be won." The procedure of Italy in Tripoli furnishes an example of such conditions, while Germany in the Morocco ques- tion could not rouse herself to a similar resolution.* * This does not imply that Germany could and ought to have oc- cupied part of Morocco. On more than one ground I think that it THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 23 In such cases might gives the right to occupy or to con- quer. Might is at once the supreme right, and the dispute as to what is right is decided by the arbitrament of war. War gives a biologically just decision, since its decisions rest on the very nature of things. Just as increase of population forms under certain cir- cumstances a convincing argument for war, so industrial conditions may compel the same result. In America, England, Germany, to mention only the chief commercial countries, industries offer remunerative work to great masses of the population. The native popu- lation cannot consume all the products of this work. The industries depend, therefore, mainly on exportation. Work and employment are secured so long as they find markets which gladly accept their products, since they are paid for by the foreign country. But this foreign country is intensely interested in liberating itself from such tribute, and in producing itself all that it requires. We find, there- fore, a general endeavour to call home industries into ex- istence, and to protect them by tariflf barriers; and, on the other hand, the foreign country tries to keep the markets open to itself, to crush or cripple competing industries, and thus to retain the consumers for itself or win fresh ones. It is an embittered struggle which rages in the market of the world. It has already often assumed definite hostile forms in tariff wars, and the future will certainly intensify this struggle. Great commercial countries will, on the one hand, shut their doors more closely to outsiders, and coun- tries hitherto on the down-grade will develop home indus- tries, which, under more favourable conditions of labour and production, will be able to supply goods cheaper than those imported from the old industrial States. These lat- ter will see their position in the world markets endangered, and thus it may well happen that an export country can no longer offer satisfactory conditions of life to its work- was imperative to maintain the actual sovereignty of this State on the basis of the Algeciras Convention. Among other advantages which need not be discussed here, Germany would have had the country secured to her as a possible sphere of colonization. That would have set up justifiable claims for the future. 24 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ers. Such a State runs the danger not only of losing a valuable part of its population by emigration, but of also gradually falling from its supremacy in the civilized and political world through diminishing production and lessened profits. In this respect we stand to-day at the threshold of a development. We cannot reject the possibility that a State, under the necessity of providing remunerative work for its population, may be driven into war. If more valu- able advantages than even now is the case had been at stake in Morocco, and had our export trade been seri- ously menaced, Germany would hardly have conceded to France the most favourable position in the Morocco market without a struggle. England, doubtless, would not shrink from a war to the knife, just as she fought for the ownership of the South African goldfields and diamond- mines, if any attack threatened her Indian market, the control of which is the foundation of her world sovereignty. The knowledge, therefore, that war depends on biological laws leads to the conclusion that every attempt to exclude it from international relations must be demonstrably un- tenable. But it is not only a biological law, but a moral obligation, and, as such, an indispensable factor in civili- zation. The attitude which is adopted towards this idea is closely connected with the view of life generally. If we regard the life of the individual or of the nation as something purely material, as an incident which ter- minates in death and outward decay, we must logically consider that the highest goal which man can attain is the enjoyment of the most happy life and the greatest possible diminution of all bodily suffering. The State will be re- garded as a sort of assurance office, which' guarantees a life of undisturbed possession and enjoyment in the widest meaning of the word. We must endorse the view which Wilhelm von Humboldt professed in his treatise on the limits of the activity of the State.* The compulsory func^ tions of the State must be limited to the assurance of prop- *W. von Humboldt, "Ideen zu einem Versuch, die Grenzen der Wirksamkeit des Staates zu bestimmen." THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 25 erty and life. The State will be considered as a law-court, and the individual will be inclined to shun war as the great- est conceivable evil. If, on the contrary, we consider the life of men and ofj States as merely a fraction of a collective existence, whose final purpose does not rest on enjoyment, but on the de- velopment of intellectual and moral powers, and if we look upon all enjoyment merely as an accessory. of the chequered conditions of life, the task-.joi.^the State will appear in a very different light. The State will not be to us merely a legal and social insurance office, political union will notl seem to us to have the one object of bringing the advantages of civilization within the reach of the individual; we shall assign to it the nobler task of raising the intellectual and moral powers of a nation to the highest expansion, and of securing for them that influence on the world which tends to the combined progress of humanity. We shall see) in the State, as Fichte taught, an exponent of liberty to the human race, whose task it is to put into practice the moral duty on earth. "The State," says Treitschke, "is a moral community. It is called upon to educate the human race by positive achievement, and its ultimate object is that a nation should develop in it and through it into a real char- acter; that is, alike for nation and individuals, the highest I moral task." — This highest expansion can never be realized in pure individualism. Man can only develop his highest capaci- ties when he takes his part in a community, in a social organism, for which he lives and works. He must be in a family, in a society, in the State, which draws the indi- vidual out of the narrow circles in which he otherwise would pass his life, and makes him a worker in the great com- mon interests of humanity. The State alone, so Schleier- macher once taught, gives the individual the highest degree of life.* * To expand the idea of the State into that of humanity, and thus I to entrust apparently higher duties to the individual, leads to error, since in a human race conceived as a whole struggle and, by impli- cation, the most essential vital principle would be ruled out. Any action in favour of collective humanity outside the limits of the State and nationality is impossible. Such conceptions belong to thej wide domain of Utopias. w^ 26 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR War, from this standpoint, will be regarded as a moral necessity, if it is waged to protect the highest arid most valuable interests of a nation. As human life is now con- stituted, it is political idealism which calls for war, while materialism — in theory, at least — repudiates it. If we grasp the conception of the State from this higher aspect, we shall soon see that it cannot attain its "great moral ends unless its political power increases. The higher object at which it aims is closely correlated to the advance- ment of its material interests. It is only the State which strives after an enlarged sphere of influence that creates the conditions under which mankind develops into the most splendid perfection. The development of all the best hu- man capabilities and qualities can only find scope on the great stage of action which power creates. But when the State renounces all extension of power, and recoils from every war which is necessary for its expansion ; when it is content to exist, and no longer wishes to grow; when "at peace on sluggard's couch it lies," then its citizens become stunted. The efforts of each individual are cramped, and the broad aspect of things is lost. This is sufficiently ex- emplified by the pitiable existence of all apiall States, and every great Power that mistrusts itself falls victim to the same curse. All petty and personal interests force their way to the front during a long period of peace. Selfishness and in- trigue run riot, and luxury obliterates idealism. Money acquires an excessive and unjustifiable power, and char- acter does not obtain due respect : 'Man is stunted by peaceful days, In idle repose his courage decays. Law is the weakling's game, Law makes the world the same. But in war man's strength is seen. War ennobles, all that is mean; [Even the coward belies his name." Schiller: Braut v. Messina. "Wars are terrible, but necessary, for they save the State from social petrifaction and stagnation. It is well that the transitoriness of the goods of this worjd is not THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 27 only preached, but is learnt by experience. War alone teaches this lesson." * War, in opposition to peace, does more to arouse na- tional life and to expand national power than any other means known to history. It certainly brings much material and mental distress in its train, but at the same time it evokes the noblest activities of the human nature. This is especially so under present-day conditions, when it can be regarded not merely as the afifair of Sovereigns and Govern- ments, but as the expression of the united will of a whole nation. " — All petty private interests shrink into insignificance be- fore the grave decision which a war involves. The com- mon danger unites all in a common effort, and the man who sharks this duty to the community is deservedly spurnedZI This union contains a liberating power which produces happy and permanent results in the national life. We need only recall the uniting power of the War of Liberation or the Franco-German War and their historical consequences. The brutal incidents inseparable from every war vanish completely before the idealism of the main re- sult. All the^sham reputations which a long spell of peace undoubtedly fosters are unmasked. Great personalities take their proper place; strength, truth, and honour come to the front and are put into play. "A thousand touching traits testify to the sacred power of the love which a right- eous war awakes in noble nations." t Frederick the Great recognized the ennobling effecfoT war. "War," he said, "opens the most fruitful field to all virtues, for at every moment constancy, pity, magnanimity, heroism, and mercy, shine forth in it; every moment of- fers an opportunity to exercise one of these virtues." "At the moment when the State cries out that its very life is at stake, social selfishness must cease and party hatred be hushed. The individual must forget his egoism, and feel that he is a member of the whole body. He should recognize how his own life is nothing worth in comparison with the welfare of the community. War is elevating, * Kuno Fischer, "Hegel," i., p. 737. t Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte," I, p. 48?. 28 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR because the individual disappears before the great concep- tion of the State. The devotion of the members of a com- munity to each other is nowhere so splendidly conspicuous as in war. . . . What a perversion of morality to wish to abolish heroism among men !" * Even defeat may bear a rich harvest. It often, indeed, passes an irrevocable sentence on weakness and misery, but often, too, it leads to a healthy revival, and lays the foundation of a new and vigorous constitution. "I recog- nize in the effect of war upon national character," said Wil- helm von Humboldt, "one of the most salutary elements in the moulding of the human race." The individual can perform no nobler moral action than to pledge his life on his convictions, and to devote his own existence to the cause which he serves, or even to the con- ception of the value of ideals to personal morality. Simi- larly, nations and States can achieve no loftier consum- mation than to stakje-t-heif whole power. on upholding their independence, their honour, and their reputation.- Such sentiments, however, can only be put into practice in war. The possibility of war is required to give the national character that stimulus from which these senti- ments spring, and thus only are nations enabled to do jus- tice to the highest duties of civilization by the fullest de- velopment of their moral forces. An intellectual and vig- orous nation can experience no worse destiny than to be lulled into a Phseacian existence by the undisputed enjoy- ment of peace. From this point of view, efforts to secure peace are extraordinarily detrimental to the national health so soon as they influence politics. The States which from various considerations are always active in this direction are sap- ping the roots of their own strength. The United States of America, e.g., in June, 191 1, championed the ideas of universal peace in order to be able to devote their undis- turbed attention to money-making and the enjoyment of wealth, and to save the three hundred million dollars which they spend on their army and navy ; they thus incur a great danger, not so much from the possibility of a war with * Treitschke, "Politik," i., p. 74. THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 29 England or Japan, but precisely because they try tp exclude all chance of contest with opponents of their own strength, and thus avoid the stress of great political emotions, without which the moral development of the national character is impossible. If they advance farther on this road, they will one day pay dearly for such a policy. Again, from the Christian standpoint we arrive at the same conclusion. Christian morality is based, indeed, on the law of love. "Love God above all things, and thy neighbour as thyself." This law can claim no significance for the relations of one country to another, since its applica- tion to politics would lead to a conflict of duties. The love which a man showed to another country as such would imply a want of love for his own countrymen. Such a system of politics must inevitably lead men astray. Christian mo- rality is personal and social, and in its nature cannot be political. Its object is to promote morality of the indi- vidual,/in order to)strengthen him to work unselfishly in the infer-ests of the „ community. It tells us to love our individual enemies, but does not remove the conception of enmity. Christ Himself said: "I am not come to send peace on earth, but a sword." His teaching can never be adduced as an argument against the universal law of strug- gle. There never was a religion which was more com- bative than Christianity. Combat, moral combat, is its very essence. If we transfer the ideas of Christianity to the sphere of politics, we can claim to raise the power of the State — ^power in the widest sense, not merely from the material aspect — to the highest degree, with the object of the moral advancement of humanity, and under certain conditions the sacrifice may be made which a war demands. Thus, according to Christianity, we cannot disapprove of war in itself, but must admit that it is justified morally and historically. Again, we should not be entitled to assume that from the opposite, the purely materialistic, standpoint war is entirely precluded. The individual who holds such views will certainly regard it with disfavour, since it may cost him life and prosperity. The State, however, as such can also come from the materialistic standpoint to a decision to 30 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR wage war, if it believes that by a certain sacrifice of human lives and happiness the conditions of life of the community may be improved. The loss is restricted to comparatively few, and, since the fundamental notion of all materialistic philosophy inevitably leads to selfishness, the majority of the citizens have no reason for not sacrificing the minority in their own inter- ests. Thus, those who from the materialistic standpoint deny the necessity of war will admit its expediency from motives of self-interest. Reflection thus shows not only that war is an unqualified necessity, but that it is justifiable from every point of view. The practical methods which the adherents of the peace idea have proposed for the prevention of war are shown to be absolutely ineffective. It is sometimes assumed that every war represents an infringement of rights, and that not only the highest ex- pression of civilization, but also the true welfare of every nation, is involved in the fullest assertion of these rights, and proposals are made from time to time on this basis to settle the disputes which arise between the various countries by Arbitration Courts, and so to render war impossible. The politician who, without side-interests in these proposals, honestly believes in their practicability must be amazingly short-sighted. Two questions in this connection are at once suggested: On what right is the finding of this Arbitration Court based ? and what sanctions insure that the parties will accept this finding? To the first question the answer is that such a right does not, and cannot, exist. The conception of right is two- fold. It signifies, firstly, the consciousness of right, the living feeling of what is right and good; secondly, the right laid down by society and the State, either written or sanctioned by tradition. In its first meaning it is an indefinite, purely personal conception; in its second mean- ing it is variable and capable of development. The right determined by law is only an attempt to secure a right in itself. In this sense right is the system of social aims secured by compulsion. It is therefore impossible that a written law should meet all the special points of a particular THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 31 case. The application of the legal right must always be qualified in order to correspond more or less to the idea of justice. A certain freedom in deciding on the particular case must be conceded to the administration of justice. The established law, within a given and restricted circle of ideas, is only occasionally absolutely just. The conception of this right is still more obscured by the complex nature of the consciousness of right and wrong. A quite different consciousness of right and wrong develops in individuals, whether persons or peoples, and this con- sciousness finds its expression in most varied forms, and lives in the heart of the people by the side of, and frequently in opposition to, the established law. In Christian coun- tries murder is a grave crime; amongst a people where blood-vengeance is a sacred duty it can be regarded as a moral act, and its neglect as a crime. It is impossible to reconcile such different conceptions of right. There is yet another cause of uncertainty. The moral consciousness of the same people alters with the changing ideas of different epochs and schools of philosophy. The established law can seldom keep pace with this inner de- velopment, this growth of moral consciousness; it lags be- hind. A condition of things arises where the living moral consciousness of the people conflicts with the established law, where legal forms are superannuated, but still exist, and Mephistopheles' scoffing words are true: "Laws are transmitted, as one sees, Just like inherited disease. They're handed down from race to race. And noiseless glide from place to place. Reason they turn to nonsense; worse, They make beneficence a curse! Ah me! That you're a grandson you As long as you're alive shall rue." Faust (translation by Sir T. Martin). Thus, no absolute rights can be laid down even for men who share the same ideas in their private and social intercourse, The conception of the constitutional State in, the' strictest sense is an impossibility, and would lead to an intolerable state of things_. The hard and fast prin- ciple nriust be "modified by the progressive development of the fixed law, as well as by the ever-necessary application 32 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR of mercy and of self-help allowed by the community. If sometimes between individuals the duel alone meets tTie seiise of justice, how much more impossible must a universal international law be in the wide-reaching and complicated relations between nations and States ! Each nation evolves its own conception of right, each has its particular ideals and aims, which spring with a certain inevitableness from its character and historical life. These various views bear in themselves their living justification, and may well be diametrically opposed to those of other nations, and none can say that one nation has a better right than the other. There never have been, and never will be, universal rights of men. Here and there particular relations can be brought under definite international laws, but the bulk of national life is absolutely outside codification. Even were some such attempt made, even if a comprehensive international code were drawn up, no self-respecting nation would sacrifice its own conception of right to it. By so doing it would re- nounce its highest ideals ; it would allow its own sense of justice to be violated by an injustice, and thus dishonour itself. Arbitration treaties must be peculiarly detrimental to an aspiring people, which has not yet reached its political and national zenith, and is bent on expanding its power in order to play its part honourably in the civilized world. Every Arbitration Court must originate in a certain po- litical status ; it must regard this as legally constituted, and must treat any alterations, however necessary, to which the whole of the contracting parties do not agree, as an en- croachment. In this way every progressive change is ar- rested, and a legal position created which may easily conflict with the actual turn of affairs, and may check the expansion of the young and vigorous State in favour of one which is sinking in the scale of civilization. These considerations supply the answer to the second decisive question: How can the judgment of the Arbitra- tion Court be enforced if any State refuses to submit to it ? Where does the power reside which insures the execution of this judgment when pronounced? In America, Elihu Root, formerly Secretary of State, declared in 1908 that the High Court of International Justice THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 33 established by the second Hague Conference would be able to pronounce definite and binding decisions by virtue of the pressure brought to bear by public opinion. The present leaders of the American peace movement seem to share this idea. With a childlike self-consciousnessy- - they appear to believe that public opinion must repre- sent the view which the American plutocrats think most profitable to themselves. They have no notion that the widening development of mankind has quite other con- cerns than material prosperity, commerce, and money- making. As a matter of fact, public opinion would be far from unanimous, and real compulsion could only be employed by means of war — the very thing which is to be avoided. We can imagine a Court of Arbitration intervening in the quarrels of the separate tributary countries when an empire like the Roman Empire existed. Such an empire never can or will arise again. Even if it did, it would as- suredly, like a universal peace league, be disastrous to all human progress, which is dependent on the clashing inter- ests and the unchecked rivalry of different groups. So long as we live under such a State system as at pres- ent, the German Imperial Chancellor certainly hit the nail on the head when he declared, in his speech in the Reichstag on March 30, 191 1, that treaties for arbitration between nations must be limited to clearly ascertainable legal issues, and that a general arbitration treaty between two countries afforded no guarantee of permanent peace. Such a treaty merely proved that between the two contracting States no serious inducement to break the peace could be imagined. It therefore only confirmed the relations already existing. "If these relations change, if differences develop between the two nations which affect their national existence, which, to use a homely phrase, cut them to the quick, then every arbitration treaty will burn like tinder and end in smoke." It must be borne in mind that a peaceful decision by an Arbitration Court can never replace in its effects and con- sequences a warlike decision, even as regards the State in whose favour it is pronounced. If we imagine, for ex- 34 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ample, that Silesia had fallen to Frederick the Great by the finding of a Court of Arbitration, and not by a war of un- paralleled heroism, would the winning of this province have been equally important for Prussia and for Germany? No one will maintain this. The material increase in power which accrued to Fred- erick's country by the acquisition of Silesia is not to be under-estimated. But far more important was the circum- stance that this country could not be conquered by the strongest European coalition, and that it vindicated its po- sition as the home of unfettered intellectual and religious _development. It was war which laid the foundations of Prussia's power, which amassed a heritage of glory and honour that can never be again disputed. War forged that Prussia, hard as steel, on which the New Germany could grow up as a mighty European State and a World Power of the future. Here once more war showed its creative power, and if we learn the lessons of history we shall see the same result again and again^ If we sum up our arguments, we shall see that, from the most opposite aspects, the efforts directed towards the abolition of war must not only be termed foolish, but ab- solutely immoral, and must be stigmatized as unworthy of the human race. To what does the whole question amount ? It is proposed to deprive men of the right and the possibility to sacrifice their highest material possessions, their physical life, for idea^, and thus to realize the highest moral un- ' selfishness. ^ is proposed to obviate the great quarrels between nations and States by Courts of Arbitration — that is, by arrangements. A one-sided, restricted, formal law is to be established in the place of the decisions of history. The weak nation is to have the same right to live as the powerful and vigorous nation. The whole idea represents a presumptuous encroachment on the natural laws of de- velopment, which can only lead to the most disastrous con- sequences for humanity generallyTl >j With the cessation of the unresmcted competition, whose ultimate appeal is to arms, all real progress would soon be checked, and a moral and intellectual stagnation would ensue which must end in degeneration. So, too, when men THE RtGMT TO MAKE WAR • 35 lose the capacity of gladly sacrificing the highest material blessings — life, health, property, and comfort — for ideals; for the maintenance of national character and political independence; for the expansion of sovereignty and ter- ritory in the interests of the national welfare ; for a definite influence in the concert of nations according to the scale of their importance in civilization ; for intellectual freedom from dogmatic and political compulsion; for the honour of the flag as typical of their own worth — then progres- sive development is broken off, decadence is inevitable, and ruin at home and abroad is only a question of time. History speaks with no uncertain voice on this subject. It shows that valour is a necessary condition of progress. Where with growing civilization and increasing material prosperity war ceases, military efficiency diminishes, and the resolution to maintain independence under all circum- stances fails, there the nations are approaching their downfall, and cannot hold their own politically or ra- cially. "A people can only hope to take up a firm position in the political world when national character and military tradition act and react upon each." These are the words of Clausewitz, the great philosopher of war, and he is in- contestably right. These efforts for peace would, if they attained their goal, i. not merely lead to general degeneration, as happens every- where in Nature where the struggle for existence is elimi- nated, but they have a direct damaging and unnerving effect. The apostles of peace draw large sections of a na- tion into the spell of their Utopian efforts, and they thus introduce an element of weakness into the national life ; they cripple the justifiable national pride in independence, and support a nerveless opportunist policy by surrounding it with the glamour of a higher humanity, and by oflFering it specious reasons for disguising its own weakness. They thus play the game of their less scrupulous enemies, just as the Prussian policy, steeped in the ideas of universal peace, did in 1805 and 1806, and brought the State to the brink of destruction. The functions of true humanity are twofold. On the one hand there is the promotion of the intellectual, moral, 36 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR and military forces, as well as of political power, as the surest guarantee for the uniform development of character ; on the other hand there is the practical realization of ideals, according to the law of love, in the life of the individual and of the community. It seems to me reasonable to compare the efforts directed towards the suppression of war with those of the Social Democratic Labour party, which goes hand in hand with them. The aims of both parties are Utopian. The or- ganized Labour party strives after an ideal whose realiza- tion is only conceivable when the rate of wages and the hours of work are settled internationally for the whole industrial world, and when the cost of living is everywhere uniformly regulated. Until this is the case the prices of the international market determine the standard of wages. The nation which leaves this out of account, and tries to settle independently wages and working hours, runs the risk of losing its position in the international market in competition with nations who work longer hours and at lower rates. Want of employment and extreme misery among the working classes would inevitably be the result. On the other hand, the internationalization of industries would soon, by excluding and preventing any competition, produce a deterioration of products and a profound de- moralization of the working population. The case of the scheme for universal peace is similar. Its execution, as we saw, would be only feasible in a world empire, and this is as impossible as the uniform regulation of the world's industries. A State which disregarded the differently conceived notions of neighbouring countries, and wished to make the idea of universal peace the guiding rule for its policy, would only inflict a fatal injury on itself, and become the prey of more resolute and warlike neigh- bours. We can, fortunately, assert the impossibility of these efforts after peace ever attaining their ultimate object in a world bristling with arms, where a healthy egotism still directs the policy of most countries. P^God will see to it," Isays Treitschke,* "that wqr always recurs as a drastic medi- cine for the human racer] * Treitschker^'PoHtik," i., p. 76. THE RIGHT TO MAKE WAR 37 Nevertheless, these tendencies spell for us in Germany no inconsiderable danger. We Germans are inclined to in- dulge in every sort of unpractical dreams. "The accuracy, of the national instinct is no longer a universal attribute with us, as in France."* We lack the true feeling for po- litical exigencies. A deep social and religious gulf divides the German people into different political groups, which are bitterly antagonistic to each other. The traditional feuds in the political world still endure. The agitation for peace introduces a new element of weakness, dissension, and indecision, into the divisions of our national and party life. It is indisputable that many supporters of these ideas sincerely believe in the possibility of their realization, and are convinced that the general good is being advanced by them. Equally true is it, however, that this peace move- ment is often simply used to mask intensely selfish political projects. Its apparent humanitarian idealism constitutes its danger. Every means must therefore be employed to oppose these visionary schemes. They must be publicly denounced as what they really are — as an unhealthy and feeble Utopia, or a cloak for political machinations. Our people must learn to see that the maintenance of peace never can or may be the goal of a policy. The policy of a great State has positive aims. It will endeavour to attain this by pacific measures so long as that is possible and profitable. It must not only be conscious that in momentous questions which influence definitely the entire development of a na- tion, the appeal to arms is a sacred right of the State, but it must keep this conviction fresh in the national con- sciousness. The inevitableness, the idealism, and the bless- ing of war, as an indispensable and stimulating law of development, must be repeatedly emphasized. The apostles of the peace idea must be confronted with Goethe's manly words : "Dreams of a peaceful day? Let him dream who may! 'War' is our rallying cry, Onward to victory!" * Treitschke, "Politik," i., p. 81. CHAPTER II THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR Prince Bismarck repeatedly declared before the German Reichstag that no one should ever take upon himself the immense responsibility of intentionally bringing about a war. It could not, he said, be foreseen what unexpected events might occur, which altered the whole situation, and made a war, with its attendant dangers and horrors, super- fluous. In his "Thoughts and Reminiscences" he expresses himself to this effect: "Even victorious wars can only be justified when they are forced upon a nation, and we cannot see the cards held by Providence so closely as to anticipate the historical development by personal cal- culation." * We need not discuss whether Prince Bismarck wished this dictum to be regarded as a universally applicable prin- ciple, or whether he uttered it as a supplementary expla- nation of the peace policy which he carried out for so long. It is difficult to gauge its true import. The notion of forcing a' war upon a nation bears various interpreta- tions. We must not think merely of external foes who compel us to fight. A war may seem to be forced upon a statesman by the state of home affairs, or by the pressure of the whole political situation. Prince Bismarck did not, however, always act accord- ing to the strict letter of that speech; it is his special claim to greatness that at the decisive moment he did not lack the boldness to begin a war on his own initiative. The thought which he expresses in his later utterances cannot, in my opinion, be shown to be a universally applicable prin- ciple of political conduct. If we wish to regard it as such, we shall not only run counter to the ideas of our greatest * "Gedanken und Erinnerungen," vol, ii., p. 93. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 39 German Prince, but we exclude from politics that inde- pendence of action which is the true motive force. The greatness of true statesmanship consists in a knowl- edge of the natural trend of affairs, and in a just apprecia- tion of the value of the controlling forces, which it uses and guides in its own interest. It does not shrink from the conflicts, which under the given conditions are un- avoidable, but decides them resolutely by war when a favourable position affords prospect of a successful issue. In this way statecraft becomes a tool of Providence, which employs the human will to attain its ends. "Men make history," * as Bismarck's actions clearly show. No doubt the most strained political situation may un- expectedly admit of a peaceful solution. The death of some one man, the setting of some great ambition, the removal of some master-will, may be enough to change it funda- mentally. But the great disputes in the Ufe of a nation cannot be settled so simply. The man who wished to bring the question to a decisive issue may disappear, and the political crisis pass for the moment; the disputed points still exist, and lead once more to quarrels, and finally to war, if they are due to really great and irreconcilable in- terests. With the death of King Edward VII. of Eng- land the policy of isolation, which he introduced with much adroit statesmanship against Germany, has broken down. The antagonism of Germany and England, based on the conflict of the interests and claims of the two nations, still persists, although the diplomacy which smoothes down, not always profitably, all causes of difference has succeeded in slackening the tension for the moment, not without sac- rifices on the side of Germany. It is clearly an untenable proposition that political action should depend on indefinite possibilities. A completely vague factor would be thus arbitrarily introduced into poli- tics, which have already many unknown quantities to reckon with; they would thus be made more or less dependent on chance. It may be, then, assumed as obvious that the great prac- tical politician Bismarck did not wish that his words on the *Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte," l, p. 38. 40 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR political application of war should be interpreted in the sense which has nowadays so frequently been attributed to them, in order to lend the authority of the great man to a weak cause. Only those conditions which can be ascer- tained and estimated should determine political action. For the moral justification of the political decision we must not look to its possible consequences, but to its aim and its motives, to the conditions assumed by the agent, and to the trustworthiness, honour, and sincerity of the considerations which led to action. Its practical value is determined by an accurate grasp of the whole situation, by a correct estimate of the resources of the two parties, by a clear anticipation of the probable results — in short, by statesmanlike insight and promptness of decision. If the statesman acts in this spirit, he will have an ac- knowledged right, under certain circumstances, to begin a war, regarded as necessary, at the most favourable moment, and to secure for his country the proud privilege of such> initiative. If a war, on which a Minister cannot willingly deci^CjJs b"oiihd^tobefought later under possjbly far rnore ISnlavouraBTe co!53rHohs7~a~TTeavy" responsibility for the greater sacfiffces that must theiTbejnade wTir'restTiiirtlTose wEoie~sTreiigfFan2. courage f_or_decisive^"polSi^i action faiTed" afltFe 7avourabk_moment. In the face"oi such con- si3eraHons a^'tEeoiy by wKicir"a war ought never to be brought about falls to the ground. And yet this theory has in our day found many supporters, especially in Germany. Even statesmen who consider that the complete abolition of war is impossible, and do not believe that the ultima ratio can be banished from the life of nations, hold the opinion that its advent should be postponed so long as possible.* Those who favour this view take up approximately the , same attitude as the supporters of the Peace idea, so fai/ as regarding war exclusively as a curse, and ignoring /v underestimating its creative and civilizing impojctaS&Tv^Ag- cording to this view , a war recognized as_ inevitable. jSust * Speech of the Imperial Chancellor, v. Bethmanti-Hollweg, on March 30, 191 1. In his speech of November g, 191 1, the Imperial Chancellor referred to the above-quoted words of Prince Bismarck in order to obtain a peaceful solution of the Morocco question. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 41 bepos tpon ed so long as possible, and no statesma n is en- iI^£^_l£lHS5~S5£?P^'l£"^^~T^Z°HJs5I? conditions injorder IE0 realiz e necessarjT" and" justifiable .aspirjEoxiSIE^I^^ arms. ~ ^uch theories only too easily disseminate the false and ruinous notion that the maintenance of peace is the ultimate object, or at least the chief duty, of any policy. To such views, the offspring of a false humanity, the clear and defimte_ai}swer must be made that, under certam circumstancesfitis not only the right, but the moral ari4~ political duty of the statesman to bring about a war. Wherever we open the pages of history we find proofs of the fact that wars, begun at the right moment with r nanly resolution, have eflfected the happiest results, both politically and socially. A feeble policy has always worked harm, since the statesman lacked the requisite firmness to take the risk of a necessary waj-, since he tried by diplomatic tact to adjust the differences of irreconcilable foes, and deceived himself as to the gravity of the situation and the real importance of the matter. Our own recent history irt^its vicissitudes supplies us with the most striking ex- /•amples of this. _, ^ — The Great Elector laid the foundations of Prussia's' power by successful and deliberately incurred wars. Fred- erick the Great followed in the steps of his glorious an- cestor. "He noticed how his state occupied an untenable middle position between the petty states and the great Powers, and showed his determination to give a definite character (decider cet etre) to this anomalous existence; it had become essential to enlarge the territory of the State and corriger la figure de la Prusse, if Prussia wished to be independent and to bear with honour the great name of 'Kingdom.' " * The King made allowance for this po- litical necessity, and took the bold determination of chal- lenging Austria to fight. None of the wars which he fought had been forced upon him; none of them did he postpone as long as possible. He had always determined to be the aggressor, to anticipate his opponents, and to secure for himself favourable prospects of success. We * Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte," i., p. 51. 42 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR all know what he achieved. The whole history of the growth of the European nations and of mankind generally would have been changed had the King lacked that heroic power of decision which he showed. We see a quite different development under the reign of Frederick William III., beginning with the year of weakness 1805, of which our nation cannot be too often reminded. It was manifest that war with Napoleon could not per- manently be avoided. Nevertheless, in spite of the French breach of neutrality, the Prussian Government could not make up its mind to hurry to the help of the allied Rus- sians and Austrians, but tried to maintain peace, though at a great moral cost. According to all human calcula- tion, the participation of Prussia in the war of 1805 would have given the Allies a decisive superiority. The adherence to neutrality led to the crash of 1806, and would have meant the final overthrow of Prussia as a State had not the moral qualities still existed there which Frederick the Great had ingrained on her by his wars. At the darkest mo- ment of defeat they shone most brightly. In spite of the political downfall, the effects of Frederick's victories kept that spirit alive with which he had inspired his State and . his people. This is clearly seen in the quite different at- titude of the Prussian people and the other Germans under the degrading yoke of the Napoleonic tyranny. The power which had been acquired by the Prussians through long and glorious wars showed itself more valuable than all the ma- terial blessings which peace created ; it was not to be broken down by the defeat of 1806, and rendered possible the heroic revival of 1813. The German wars of Unification also belong to the cate- gory of wars which, in spite of a thousand sacrifices, bring forth a rich harvest. The instability and political weak- ness which the Prussian Government showed in 1848, cul- minating in the disgrace of Olmiitz in 1850, had deeply shaken the political and national importance of Prussia. On the other hand, the calm conscious strength with which she faced once more her duties as a nation, when King William I. and Bismarck were at the helm, was soon abun- THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 43 dantly manifest. Bismarck, by bringing about our wars of Unification in order to improve radically an untenable position and secure to our people healthy conditions of life, fulfilled the long-felt wish of the German people, and raised Germany to the undisputed rank of a first-class European Power. The military successes and the political position won by the sword laid the foundation for an unparalleled material prosperity. It is difficult to imagine how pitiable the progress of the German people would have been had not these wars been brought about by a deliberate policy. The most recent history tells the same story. If we judge the Japanese standpoint with an unbiassed mind we shall find the resolution to fight Russia was not only heroic, but politically wise and morally justifiable. It was immensely daring to challenge the Russian|| giant, but the purely military conditions were favourable, and the Japa- nese nation, which had rapidly risen to a high stage of civilization, needed an extended sphere of influence to com- plete her development, and to open new channels for her superabundant activities. Japan, from her own point of view, was entitled to claim to be the predominant civilized power in Eastern Asia, and to repudiate the rivalry of Russia. The Japanese statesmen were justified by the result. The victorious campaign created wider conditions of life for the Japanese people and State, and at one blow raised it to be a determining co-factor in international poli- tics, and gave it a political importance which must un- deniably lead to great material advancement. If this war had been avoided from weakness or philanthropic illusions, it is reasonable to assume that matters would have taken a very different turn. The growing power of Russia in the Amur district and in Korea would have repelled or at least hindered the Japanese rival from rising to such a height of power as was attained through this war, glorious alike for military prowess and political fore- sight. The appropriate and conscious employment of war as a political means has always led to happy results. Even an unsuccessfully waged war may sometimes be more bene- 44 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ficial to a people than the surrender of vital interests with- out a blow. We find an example of this in the recent heroic struggle of the small Boer States against the British Em- pire. In this struggle they were inevitably defeated. It was easy to foresee that an armed peasantry could not per- manently resist the combined forces of England and her colonies, and that the peasant armies generally could not bear heavy losses. But yet — if all indications are not mis- leading—the blood shed by the Boer people will yield a free and prosperous future. In spite of much weakness, the resistance was heroic; men like President Stein, Botha, and De Wett, with their gallant followers, performed many great military feats. The whole nation combined and rose unanimously to fight for the freedom of which Byron sings : "Far freedom's battle once begun, Bffliueathed from bleeding sire to son. Though baffled oft, is ever won." Inestimable moral gains, which can never be lost in any later developments, have been won by this struggle. The Boers have maintained their place as a nation'; in a certain sense they have shown themselves superior to the English. It was only after many glorious victories that they yielded to a crushingly superior force. They accumu- lated a store of fame and national consciousness which makes them, though conquered, a power to be reckoned with. The result of this development is that the Boers are now the foremost people in South Africa, and that England preferred to grant them self-government than to be faced by their continual hostility. This laid the founda- tion for the United Free States of South Africa.* Presi- * "War and the Arme Blanche," by Erskine Childers : "The truth came like a flash . . . that all along we had been conquering the country, not the race; winning positions, not battles" (p. 215). "To . . . aim at so cowing the Boer national spirit, as to gain a permanent political ascendancy for ourselves, was an object beyond our power to achieve. Peaceable political fusion under our own flag was the utmost we could secure. That means a conditional sur- render, or a promise of future autonomy" (pp. 227-228). Lord Roberts wrote a very appreciative introduction to this book without any protest against the opinions expressed in it. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 45 dent Kruger, who decided on this most justifiable war, and not Cecil Rhodes, will, in spite of the tragic ending to the war itself, be known in all ages as the great far-sighted statesman of South Africa, who, despite the unfavourable material conditions, knew how to value the inestimable moral qualities according to their real importance. The lessons of history thus confirm the view that wars which have been deliberately provoked by far-seeing states- men have had the happiest results. War, nevertheless, must always be a violent form of political agent, which not only contains in itself the danger of defeat, but in every case calls for great sacrifices, and entails incalculable misery. He who determines upon war accepts a great responsi- bility. It is therefore obvious that no one can come to such a decision except from the most weighty reasons, more espe- cially under the existing conditions which have created national armies. Absolute clearness of vision is needed to decide how and when such a resolution can be taken, and what political aims justify the use of armed force. This question therefore needs careful consideration, and a satisfactory answer can only be derived from an examina- tion of the essential duty of the State. If this duty consists in giving scope to the highest in- tellectual and moral development of the citizens, and in co-operating in the moral education of the human race, then the State's own acts must necessarily conform to the moral laws. But the acts of the State cannot be judged by the standard of individual morality. If the State wished to conform to this standard it would often find itself at variance with its own particular duties. The morality of the State must be developed out of its own peculiar es- sence, just as individual morality is rooted in the per- sonality of the man and his duties towards society. The morality of the State must be judged by the nature and raison d'etre of the State, and not of the individual citi- zen. But the end-all and be-all of a State is power, and "he who is not man enough to look this truth in the face should not meddle in politics." * * Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 3, and ii., § 28. 46 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Machiavelli was the first to declare that the keynote of every policy was the advancement of power. This term, however, has acquired, since the German Reformation, a meaning other than that of the shrewd Florentine. To him power was desirable in itself; for us "the State is not physical power as an end in itself, it is power to pro- tect and promote the higher interests" ; "power must justify itself by being applied for the greatest good of man- kind." * ' The criterion of the personal morality of the individual "rests in the last resort on the question whether he has recognized and developed his own nature to the highest attainable degree of perfection." t If the same standard is applied to the State, then "its highest moral duty is to tjncrease its power. Thfe individual must sacrifice himself for the higher community of which he is a member; but the State is itself the highest conception in the wider com- munity of man, and therefore the duty of self-annihilation does not enter into the case. The Christian duty of sac- rifice for something higher does not exist for the State, for there is nothing higher than it in the world's history; con- sequently it cannot sacrifice itself to something higher. When a State sees its downfall staring it in the face, we applaud if it succumbs sword in hand. A sacrifice made to an alien nation not only is immoral, but contradicts the idea of self-preservation, which is the highest ideal of a State." $ I have thought it impossible to explain the foundations of political morality better than in the words of our great national historian. But we can reach the same conclusions by another road. The individual is responsible only for himself. If, either from weakness or from moral reasons, he neglects his own advantage, he only injures himself, the consequences of his actions recoil only on him. The situa- tion is quite different in the case of a State. It represents the ramifying and often conflicting interests of a com- munity. Should it from any reason neglect the interests, it not only to some extent prejudices itself as a legal per- sonality, but it injures also the body of private interests ♦Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 3, and ii., § 28. ilbid. t Ibid., 1,^3. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 47 which it represents. This incalculably far-reaching detri- ment affects not merely one individual responsible merely to himself, but a mass of individuals and the community. Accordingly it is a moral duty of the State to remain loyal to its own peculiar function as guardian and promoter of all higher interests. This duty it cannot fulfil unless it possesses the needful power. The increase of this power is thus from this standpoint also the first and foremost duty of the State. This aspect of the question supplies a fair standard by which the mo- rality of the actions of the State can be estimated. The crucial question is, How far has the State performed this duty, and thus served the interests of the community? And this not merely in the material sense, but in the higher meaning that material interests are justifiable only so far as they promote the power of the State, and thus indirectly its higher aims. It is obvious, in view of the complexity of social condi- tions, that numerous private interests must be sacrificed to the interest of the community, and, from the limitations of human discernment, it is only natural that the view taken of interests of the community may be erroneous. Never- theless the advancement of the power of the State must be first and foremost the object that guides the statesman's policy. "Among all political sins, the sin of feebleness is the most contemptible; it is the political sin against the Holy Ghost." * This argument of political morality is open to the objection that it leads logically to the Jesuitic prin- ciple, that the end justifies the means; that, according to it, to increase the power of the State all measures are per- missible. A most difficult problem is raised by the question how far, for political objects moral in themselves, means may be employed which must be regarded as reprehensible in the life of the individual. So far as I know, no satisfactory solution has yet been obtained, and I do not feel bound to attempt one at this point. War, with which I am dealing at present, is no reprehensible means in itself, but it may become so if it pursues unmoral or frivolous aims, which * Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 3. 48 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR bear no comparison with the seriousness of warHke meas- ures. I must deviate here a little from my main theme, and discuss shortly some points which touch the question of political morality. The gulf between political and individual morality is not so wide as is generally assumed. The power of the State does not rest exclusively on the factors that make up material power — territory, population, wealth, and a large army and navy: it rests to a high degree on moral elements, which are reciprocally related to the material. The energy with which a State promotes its own interests and represents the rights of its citizens in foreign States, the determination which it displays to support them on oc- casion by force of arms, constitute a real factor of strength, as compared with all such countries as cannot bring them- selves to let things come to a crisis in a like case. Simi- larly a reliable and honourable policy forms an element of strength in dealings with allies as well as with foes. A statesman is thus under no obligation to deceive deliberately. He can from the political standpoint avoid all negotiations which compromise his personal integrity, and he will thereby serve the reputation and power of his State no less than when he holds aloof from political menaces, to which no acts correspond, and renounces all political formulas and phrases. In antiquity the murder of a tyrant was thought a moral action, and the Jesuits have tried to justify regicide.* At the present day political murder is universally condemned from the standpoint of political morality. The same holds good of preconcerted political deception. A State which employed deceitful methods would soon sink into disrepute. The man who pursues moral ends with unmoral means is involved in a contradiction of motives, and nullifies the object at which he aims, since he denies it by his actions. It is not, of course, necessary that a man communicate all his intentions and ultimate objects to an opponent; the latter can be left to form his own opinion on this point. But it is not necessary to lie deliberately or to practise crafty deceptions. A fine frankness has everywhere been * Mariana, "De rege et regis institutione." Toledo, 1598. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 49 the characteristic of great statesmen. Subterfuges and du- plicity mark the petty spirit of diplomacy. Finally, the relations between two States must often be termed a latent war, which is provisionally being waged in peaceful rivalry. Such a position justifies the employ- ment of hostile methods, cunning, and deception, just as war itself does, since in such a case both parties are deter- mined to employ them. I believe after all that a conflict between personal and political morality may be avoided by wise and prudent diplomacy, if there is no concealment of the desired end, and it is recognized that the means employed must correspond to the ultimately moral nature of that end. Recognized rights are, of course, often violated by po- litical action. But these, as we have already shown, are never absolute rights ; they are of human origin, and there- fore imperfect and variable. There are conditions under which they do not correspond to the actual truth of things ; in this case the summum jus summa injuria holds good, and the infringement of the right appears morally justified. York's decision to conclude the convention of Tauroggen was indisputably a violation of right, but it was a moral act, for the Franco-Prussian alliance wasi made under com- pulsion, and was antagonistic to all the vital interests of the Prussian State; it was essentially untrue and immoral. Now it is always justifiable to terminate an immoral situa- tion. As regards the employment of war as a political means, our argument shows that it becomes the duty of a State to make use of the ultima ratio not only when it is attacked, but when by the policy of other States the power of the particular State is threatened, and peaceful methods are insufficient to secure its integrity. This power, as we saw, rests on a material basis, but finds expression in ethical values. War therefore seems imperative when, although the material basis of power is not threatened, the moral in- fluence of the State (and this is the ultimate point at is- sue) seems to be prejudiced. Thus apparently trifling causes may under certain circumstances constitute a fully justifiable casus belli if the honour of the State, and con- so GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR sequently its moral prestige, are endangered. This pres- tige is an essential part of its power. An antagonist must never be allowed to believe that there is any lack of de- termination to assert this prestige, even if the sword must be drawn to do so. In deciding for war or peace, the next important con- sideration is whether the question under discussion is suf- ficiently vital for the power of the State to justify the de- termination to fight; whether the inevitable dangers and miseries of a war do not threaten to inflict greater injury on the interests of the State than the disadvantages which, according to human calculation, must result if war is not declared. A further point to be considered is whether the general position of affairs aifords some reasonable prospect of military success. With these considerations of expe- diency certain other weighty aspects of the question must also be faced. It must always be kept in mind that a State is not jus- tified in looking only to the present, and merely consulting the immediate advantage of the existing generation. Such policy would be opposed to all that constitutes the essential nature of the State. Its conduct must be guided by the moral duties incumbent on it, which, as one step is gained, point to the next higher, and prepare the present for the future. "The true greatness of the State is that it links the past with the present and the future; consequently the individual has no right to regard the State as a means for attaining his own ambitions in life." * The law of development thus becomes a leading factor in politics, and in the decision for war this consideration must weigh more heavily than the sacrifices necessarily to be borne in the present. "I cannot conceive," Zelter once wrote to Goethe, "how any right deed can be performed without sacrifice; all worthless actions must lead to the very opposite of what is desirable." A second point of view which must not be neglected is precisely that which Zelter rightly emphasizes. A great end cannot be attained except by staking large intellectual and material resources, and no certainty of success can * Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 2. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 51 ever be anticipated. Every undertaking implies a greater or less venture. The daily intercourse of civic life teaches us this lesson ; and it cannot be otherwise in politics where account must be taken of most powerful antagonists whose strength can only be vaguely estimated. In questions of comparatively trifling importance much may be done by agreements and compromises, and mutual concessions may produce a satisfactory status. The solution of such prob- lems is the sphere of diplomatic activity. The state of things is quite different when vital questions are at issue, or when the opponent demands concession, but will guarantee none, and is clearly bent on humiliating the other party. Then is the time for diplomatists to be silent and for great statesmen to act. Men must be resolved to stake everything, and cannot shun the solemn decision of war. In such questions any reluctance to face the opponent, every abandonment of important interests, and every attempt at a temporizing settlement, means not only a momentary loss of political prestige, and frequently of real power, which may possibly be made good in another place, but a permanent injury to the interests of the State, the full gravity of which is only felt by future generations. Not that a rupture of pacific relations must always result in such a case. The mere threat of war and the clearly proclaimed intention to wage it, if necessary, will often cause the opponent to give way. This intention must, however, be made perfectly plain, for "negotiations with- out arms are like music-books without instruments," as Frederick the Great said. It is ultimately the actual strength of a nation to which the opponent's purpose yields. When, therefore, the threat of war is insufficient to call attention to its own claims the concert must begin; the obligation is unconditional, and the right to fight be- comes the duty to make war, incumbent on the nation and statesman alike. Finally, there is a third point to be considered. Cases may occur where war must be made simply as a point of honour, although there is no prospect of success. The responsibility of this has also to be borne. So at least Frederick the Great thought. His brother Henry, after' 52 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the battle of Kolin, had advised him to throw himself at the feet of the Marquise de Pompadour in order to purchase a peace with France. Again, after the battle of Kuners- dorf his position seemed quite hopeless, but the King absolutely refused to abandon the struggle. He knew better what suited the honour and the moral value of his country, and preferred to die sword in hand than to conclude a degrading peace. President Roosevelt, in his message to the Congress of the United States of America on December 4, 1906, gave expression to a similar ^bought. "It must ever be kept in mind," so the manly I and inspiriting words ran, "that war is not merely justifiable, but imperative, upon honourable men and upon an honourable nation when peace is only to be obtained by the sacrifice of conscientious conviction or of national welfare. A just war is in the long-run far better for a nation's soul than the most prosperous peace obtained by an acquiescence in wrong or injustice. ... It must be remembered that even to be defeated in war may be better than not to have fought at all." To sum up these various views, we may say that expedi- ency in the higher sense must be conclusive in deciding whether to undertake a war in itself morally justifiable. Such decision is rendered more easy by the consideration that the prospects of success are always the greatest when the moment for declaring war can be settled to suit the political and military situation. It must further be remembered that every success in foreign policy, especially if obtained by a demonstration of military strength, not only heightens the power of the State in foreign affairs, but adds to the reputation of the Govern- ment at home, and thus enables it better to fulfil its moral aims and civilizing duties. ^^ No one will thus dispute the assumption that, under cer- tain circumstances, it is the moral and political duty of the State to employ war as a political means. So long as all human progress and all natural development are based on Lthe law of conflict, it is necessary to engage in such con- flict under the most favourable conditions possibl^ "" When a State is confronted by the material impossibility THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 53 of supporting any longer the warlike preparations which the power of its enemies has forced upon it, when it is clear that the rival States must gradually acquire from natural reasons a lead that cannot be won back, when there are indications of an offensive alliance of stronger enemies who only await the favourable moment to strike — the moral duty of the State towards its citizens is to begin the struggle while the prospects of success and the political circumstances are still tolerably favourable. When, on the other hand, the hostile States are weakened or hampered by affairs at home and abroad, but its own warlike strength shows elements of superiority, it is imperative to use the favourable circumstances to promote its own political aims. The danger of a war may be faced the more readily if there is good prospect that great results may be obtained with comparatively small sacrifices. These obligations can only be met by a vigorous, resolute, active policy, which follows definite ideas, and understands how to arouse and concentrate all the living forces of the State, conscious of the truth of Schiller's lines : "The chance that once thou hast refused Will never through the centuries recur." The verdict of history will condemn the statesman who was unable to take the responsibility of a bold decision, and sacrificed the hopes of the future to the present need of peace. It is obvious that under these circumstances it is extremely difficult to answer the question whether in any special case conditions exist which justify the determina- tion to make war. The difficulty is all the greater because the historical significance of the act must be considered, and the immediate result is not the final criterion of its justification. War is not always the final judgment of Heaven. There are successes which are transitory while the national life is reckoned by centuries. The ultimate verdict can only be obtained by the survey of long epochs.* *Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 2. 54 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR The man whose high and responsible lot is to steer the fortunes of a great State must be able to disregard the verdict of his contemporaries; but he must be all the clearer as to the motives of his own policy, and keep before his eyes, with the full weight of the categorical imperative, the teaching of Kant : "Act so that the maxim of thy will can at the same time hold good as a principle of universal legislation."* He must have a clear conception of the nature and purpose of the State, and grasp this from the highest moral standpoint. He can in no other way settle the rules of his policy and recognize clearly the laws of political morality. He must also form a clear conception of the special duties to be fulfilled by the nation, the guidance of whose fortunes rests in his hands. He must clearly and defi- nitely formulate these duties as the fixed goal of statesman- ship. When he is absolutely clear upon this point he can judge in each particular case what corresponds to the true interests of the State; then only can he act systematically in the definite prospect of smoothing the paths of poli- tics, and securing favourable conditions for the inevitable conflicts; then only, when the hour for combat strikes and the decision to fight faces him, can he rise with a free spirit and a calm breast to that standpoi^ which L uther once described in blunt, bold language : Ll!It is veryTrue that men write and say often what a curse war is. But they ought to consider how much greater is that curse which is averted by war. Briefly, in the business of war men must not regard the massacres, the burnings, the battles, and the marches, etc. — that is what the petty and simple do who only look with the eyes of children at the surgeon, how he cuts off the hand or saws off the leg, but do not see or notice that he does it in order to save the whole body. Thus we must look at the business of war or the sword with the eyes of men, asking, Why these murders and horrors? It will be shown that it is a business, divine in itself, and as needful and *Kant, "Kritik der praktischen Vernunft," p. 30. THE DUTY TO MAKE WAR 55 necessarj^to the world as eating or drinking, or any other work." * J Thus in order to decide what paths German policy must take in order to further the interests- of the German people, and what possibilities of war are involved, we must first try to estimate the problems of State and of civilization which are to be solved, and discover what political purposes correspond to these problems. * Luther, "Whether soldiers can be in a state of salvation.'' CHAPTER III A BRIEF SURVEY OF GERMANY'S HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT The life of the individual citizen is valuable only when it is consciously and actively employed for the attainment of great ends. The same holds good of nations and States. They are, as it were, personalities in the framework of col- lective humanity, infinitely various in their endowments and their characteristic qualities, capable of the most different achievements, and serving the most multifarious purposes in the great evolution of human existence. Such a theory will not be accepted from the standpoint of the materialistic philosophy which prevails among wide circles of our nation to-day. According to it, all that happens in the world is a necessary consequence of given conditions ; free will is only necessity become conscious. It denies the difference between the empiric and the intelligible Ego, which is the basis of the notion of moral freedom. This philosophy cannot stand before scientific criticism. It seems everywhere arbitrarily restricted by the narrow limits of the insufficient human intelligence. The exist- ence of the universe is opposed to the law of a sufficient cause; infinity and eternity are incomprehensible to our conceptions, which are confined to space and time. The essential nature of force and volition remains in- explicable. We recognize only a subjectively qualified phenomenon in the world; the impelling forces and the real nature of things are withdrawn from our understand- ing. A systematic explanation of the universe is quite im- possible from the human standpoint. So much seems clear — although no demonstrable certainty attaches to this 56 GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 57 theory — that spiritual laws beyond the comprehension of us men govern the world according to a conscious plan of development in the revolving cycles of a perpetual change. Even the gradual evolution of mankind seems ruled by a hidden moral law. At any rate we recognize in the growing spread of civilization and common moral ideas a gradual progress towards purer and higher forms of life. It is indeed impossible for us to prove design and pur- pose in every individual case, because our attitude to the universal whole is too limited and anomalous. But within the limitations of our knowledge of things and of the inner necessity of events we can at least try to understand in broad outlines the ways of Providence, which we may also term the principles of development. We shall thus obtain useful guidance for our further investigation and procedure. The agency and will of Providence are most clearly seen in the history of the growth of species and races, of peoples and States. "What is true," Goethe once said in a letter to Zelter, "can but be raised and supported by its history; what is false only lowered and dissipated by its history." The formation of peoples and races, the rise and fall of States, the laws which govern the common life, teach us to recognize which forces have a creative, sustaining, and beneficent influence, and which work towards disinte- gration, and thus produce inevitable downfall. We are here following the working of universal laws, but we must not forget that States are personalities endowed with very different human attributes, with a peculiar and often very marked character, and that these subjective qualities are distinct factors in the development of States as a whole. Impulses and influences exercise a very different effect on the separate national individualities. We must endeavour to grasp history in the spirit of the psychologist rather than of the naturalist. Each nation must be judged from its own standpoint if we wish to learn the general trend of its development. We must study the history of the German people in its connection with that of the other European States, and ask first what paths its development has hitherto followed, and what guidance the past gives for our future policy. From the time of their first appear- S8 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ance in history the Germans showed themselves a first- class civilized people. When the Roman Empire broke up before the onslaught of the barbarians, there were two main elements which shaped the future of the West, Christianity and_ the Germans. The Christian teaching preached equal rights for all men and community of goods in an empire of masters and slaves, but formulated the highest moral code, and directed the attention of a race, which only aimed at luxury, to the world beyond the grave as the true goal of existence. It made the value of man as man, and the moral development of personality according to the laws of the individual conscience, the starting-point of all development. It thus gradually transformed the philos- ophy of the ancient world, whose morality rested solely . on the relations with the State. Simultaneously with this, hordes of Germans from the thickly-populated North poured victoriously in broad streams over the Roman Empire and the decaying nations of the Ancient World. These masses could not keep their nationality pure and maintain their position as political powers. The States which they founded were short-lived. Even then men recognized how difficult it is for a lower civilization to hold its own against a higher. The Germans were gradu- ally merged in the subject nations. The German element, however, instilled new life into these nations, and oifered new opportunities of growth. The stronger the admixture of German blood, the more vigorous and the more capable of civilization did the growing nations appear. In the meantime powerful opponents sprang up in this newly-formed world. The Latin race grew up by degrees out of the admixture of the Germans with the Roman world and the nations subdued by them, and separated itself from the Germans, who kept themselves pure on the north of the Alps and in the districts of Scandinavia. At the same time the idea of the Universal Empire, which the Ancient World had embraced, continued to flourish. In the East the Byzantine Empire lasted until a.d. 1453. In the West, however, the last Roman Emperor had been deposed by Odoacer in 476. Italy had fallen into GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 59 the hands of the East Goths and Lombards succes- sively. The Visigoths had estabhshed their dominion in Spain, and the Franks and Burgundians in Gaul. A new empire rose from the latter quarter. Charles the Great, with his powerful hand, extended the Prankish Empire far beyond the boundaries of Gaul. By the subjugation of the Saxons he became lord of the country between the Rhine and the Elbe; he obtained the sovereignty in Italy by the conquest of the Lombards, and finally sought to restore the Western Roman Empire. He was crowned Emperor in Rome in the year 800. His successors clung to this claim; but the Prankish Empire soon fell to pieces. In its partition the western half formed what afterwards became Prance, and the East Prankish part of the Empire became the later Germany. While the Germans in the West Prankish Empire, in Italy and Spain, had abandoned their speech and customs, and had gradually amalgamated with the Romans, the inhabitants of the East Prankish Empire, especially the Saxons and their neighbouring tribes, maintained their Germanic characteristics, language, and customs. A powerful German * kingdom arose which renewed the claims of Charles the Great to the Western Roman Empire. Otto the Great was the first German King who took this momentous step. It involved him and his successors in a quarrel with the Bishops of Rome, who wished to be not only Heads of the Church, but lords of Italy, and did not hesitate to falsify archives in order to prove their pretended title to that country. The Popes made good this right, but they did not stop there. Living in Rome, the sacred seat of the world- empire, and standing at the head of a Church which claimed universality, they, too, laid hold in their own way of the idea of universal imperium. The notion was one of the boldest creations of the human intellect — to found and maintain a world-sovereignty almost wholly by the employ- ment of spiritual powers. ♦German (Deutsch = diutisk) signifies originally "popular," op- posed to "foreign" — e.g., the Latin Church dialect. It was first used as the name of a people in the tenth century A.a 6o GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Naturally ,these Papal pretensions led to feuds with the Empire. The freedom of secular aspirations clashed with the claims of spiritual dominion. In the portentous struggle of the two Powers for the supremacy, a struggle which inflicted heavy losses on the German Empire, the Imperial cause was worsted. It was unable to mould the widely different and too independent subdivisions of the Empire into a homogeneous whole, and to crush the selfish particularism of the estates. The last Staufer died on the scaffold at Naples under the axe of Charles of Anjou, who was a vassal of the Church. The great days of the German-Roman Empire were over. The German power lay on the ground in fragments. A period of almost complete anarchy followed. Dogmatism and lack of patriotic sentiment, those bad characteristics of the German people, contributed to extend this destruc- tion to the economic sphere. The intellectual life of the German people deteriorated equally. At the time when the Imperial power was budding and under the rule of the highly-gifted Staufers, German poetry was passing through a first classical period. Every German country was ringing with song; the depth of German sentiment found universal expression in ballads and poems, grave or gay, and German idealism inspired the minnesingers. But with the disappearance of the Empire every string was silent, and even the plastic arts could not rise above the coarseness and confusion of the political conditions. The material prosperity of the people indeed improved, as affairs at home were better regulated, and developed to an amazing extent; the Hanseatic League bore its flag far and wide over the northern seas, and the great trade- routes, which linked the West and Orient, led from Venice and Genoa through Germany. But the earlier political power was never again attained. Nevertheless dislike of spiritual despotism still smoul- dered in the breasts of that German people, which had submitted to the Papacy, and was destined once more to blaze up into bright flames, and this time in the spiritual domain. As she grew more and more worldly, the Church had lost much of her influence on men's minds. On the GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 6i other hand, a refining movement had grown up in humanism, which, supported by the spirit of antiquity, could not fail from its very nature to become antagonistic to the Church. It found enthusiastic response in Germany, and was joined by everyone whose thoughts and hopes were centred in freedom. Ulrich von Hutten's battle-cry, "I have dared the deed," rang loud through the districts of Germany. Humanism was thus in a sense the precursor of the Reformation, which, conceived in the innermost heart of the German people, shook Europe to her foundations. Once more it was the German people which, as formerly in the struggle between the Arian Goths and the Orthodox Church, shed its heart's blood in a religious war for spiritual liberty, and now for natiqnal independence also. No struggle more pregnant with consequences for the development of humanity had been fought out since the Persian wars. In this cause the German people nearly disappeared, and lost all political importance. Large sections of the Empire were abandoned to foreign States. Germany became a desert. But this time the Church did not remain victorious as she did against the Arian Goths and the Staufers. It is true she was not laid prostrate; she still remained a mighty force, and drew new strength from the struggle itself. Politically the Catholic States, under Spanish leadership, won undisputed supremacy. But, on the other hand, the right to spiritual freedom was established. This most important element of civilization was retained for humanity in the reformed Churches, and has become ever since the palladium of all progress, though even after the Peace of Westphalia protracted struggles were required to assert religious liberty. The States of Latin race on their side now put forward strong claims to the universal imperium in order to suppress the German ideas of freedom. Spain first, then France: the two soon quarrelled among themselves about the predominance. At the same time, in Germanized England a-firSt-class Protestant power was being developed, and the age of discoveries, which coincided roughly with the era of the Reformation and the Thirty Years' War, opened 62 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR new and unsuspected paths to human intellect and human energy. Political life also acquired a fresh stimulus. Gradually a broad stream of immigrants poured into the newly-discovered districts of America, the northern part of which fell to the lot of the Germanic, and the southern part to that of the Latin race. Thus was laid the founda- tion of the great colonial Empires, and, consequently, of world-politics. Germany remained excluded from this great movement, since she wasted her forces in ecclesi- astical disputes and religious wars. On the other hand, in combination with England, the- Low Countries and Austria, which latter had at the same time to repel the inroad of Turks from the East, she successfully curbed the French ambition for sovereignty in a long succession of wars. England by these wars grew to be the first colonial and maritime power in the world. Germany forfeited large tracts of territory, and lost still more in political power. She broke up into numerous feeble separate States, which were entirely void of any common sympathy with the German cause. But this very disintegration lent her fresh strength. A centre of Protestant power was established in the North — i.e., Prussia. After centuries of struggle the Germans had succeeded in driving back the Slavs, who poured in from the East, in wresting large tracts from them, and in completely Germanizing them. This struggle, like that with the niggard soil, produced a sturdy race, conscious of its strength, which extended its power to the coasts of the Baltic, and successfully planted Germanic culture in the far North. The German nation was finally victorious also against the Swedes, who disputed the command of the Baltic. In that war the Great Elector had laid the foundations of a strong political power, which, under his successors, gradually grew into a influential force in Germany. The headship of Protestant Germany devolved more and more on this State, and a counterpoise to Catholic Austria gradually grew up. This latter State had developed out of Germany into an independent great Power, resting its supremacy not only on a German population, but also on Hungarians and Slavs. In the GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 63 Seven Years' War Prussia broke away from Catholic Aus- tria and the Empire, and confronted France and Russia as an independent Protestant State. But yet another dark hour was in store for Germany, as she once more slowly struggled upwards. In France the Monarchy had exhausted the resources of the nation for its own selfish ends. The motto of the monarchy, L'etat c'est moi, carried to an extreme, provoked a tremendous revulsion of ideas, which culminated in the stupendous revolution in 1789, and everywhere in Europe, and more especially in Germany, shattered and swept away the obsolete remnants of medievalism. The German Empire as such disappeared; only fragmentary States survived, among which Prussia alone showed any real power. France once again under Napoleon was fired with the conception of the universal imperium, and bore her victorious eagles to Italy, Egypt, Syria, Germany, and Spain, and even to the inhospitable plains of Russia, which by a gradual political absorption of the Slavonic East, and a slow expansion of power in wars with Poland, Sweden, Turkey, and Prussia, had risen to an important place among the European nations. Austria, which had become more and more a congeries of different nationalities, fell before the mighty Corsican. Prussia, which seemed to have lost all vigour in her dream of peace, collapsed before his onslaught. But the German spirit emerged with fresh strength from the deepest humiliation. The purest and mightiest storm of fury against the yoke of the oppressor that ever honoured an enslaved nation burst out in the Protestant North. The wars of liberation, with their glowing enthusiasm, won back the possibilities of political existence for Prussia and for Germany, and paved the way for further world-wide historical developments. While the French people in savage revolt against spiritual and secular despotism had broken their chains and proclaimed their rights, another quite different revolu- tion was working in Prussia — the revolution of duty. The assertion of the rights of the individual leads ultimately to individual irresponsibility and to a repudiation of the State. 64 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Immanuel Kant, the founder of critical philosophy, taught, in opposition to this view, the gospel of moral duty, and Scharnhorst grasped the idea of universal military service. By calling upon each individual to sacrifice property and life for the good of the community, he gave the clearest expression to the idea of the State, and created a sound basis on which the claim to individual rights might rest. At the same time Stein laid the foundations of self-govern- ment in Prussia. While measures of the most far-reaching historical im- portance were thus being adopted in the State on which the future fate of Germany was to depend, and while revolution was being superseded by healthy progress, a German Empire of the first rank, the Empire of intellect, grew up in the domain of art and science, where German character and endeavour found the deepest and fullest ex- pression. A great change had been effected in this land of political narrowness and social sterility since the year 1750. A literature and a science, born in the hearts of the nation, and deeply rooted in the moral teaching of Protestantism, had raised their minds far beyond the boundaries of practical life into the sunlit heights of in- tellectual liberty, and manifested the power and superiority of the German spirit. "Thus the new poetry and science became for many decades the most effectual bond of union for this dismembered people, and decided the victory of Protestantism in German life." * Germany was raised to be once more "the home of heresy, since she developed the root-idea of the Reforma- tion into the right of unrestricted and unprejudiced im quiry." f Moral obligations, such as no nation had ever yet made the standard of conduct, were laid down in the philosophy of Kant and Fichte, and a lofty idealism in- spired the songs of her poets. The intense effect of these spiritual agencies was realized in the outburst of heroic fury in 1813. "Thus our classical literature, starting from a different point, reached the same goal as the political work of the Prussian monarchy," $ and of those men of action ♦Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte," i., p. 88. t/Wd., i., p. 90. tibid. GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 65 who pushed this work forward in the hour of direst ruin. The meeting of Napoleon and Goethe, two mighty con- querors, was an event in the world's history. On one side the scourge of God, the great annihilator of all survivals from the past, the gloomy despot, the last abortion of the revolution — a "Part of the power that still Produces Good, while still devising 111"; on the other, the serenely grave Olympian who uttered the words, "Let man be noble, resourceful, and good"; who gave a new content to the religious sentiment, since he conceived all existence as a perpetual change to higher conditions, and pointed out new paths in science ; who gave the clearest expression to all aspirations of the human in- tellect, and all movements of the German mind, and thus roused his people to consciousness ; who finally by his writ- ings on every subject showed that the whole realm of human knowledge was concentrated in the German brain ; a prophet of truth, an architect of imperishable monuments which testify to the divinity in man. The great conqueror of the century was met by the hero of intellect, to whom was to fall the victory of the future. The mightiest potentate of the Latin race faced the great Germanic who stood in the forefront of humanity. Truly a nation which in the hour of its deepest political degradation could give birth to men like Fichte, Scharn- horst, Stein, Schiller, and Goethe, to say nothing about the great soldier-figures of the wars of Liberation, must be called to a mighty destiny. We must admit that in the period immediately succeed- ing the great struggle of those glorious days, the short- sightedness, selfishness, and weakness of its Sovereigns, and the jealousy of its neighbours, robbed the German people of the full fruits of its heroism, devotion, and pure enthusiasm. The deep disappointment of that generation found expression in the revolutionary movement of 1848, and in the emigration of thousands to the free country of North America, where the Germans took a prominent part 66 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR in the formation of a new nationality, but were lost to their mother-country. The Prussian monarchy grovelled before Austria and Russia, and seemed to have forgotten its national duties. Nevertheless in the centre of the Prussian State there was springing up from the blood of the champions of free- dom a new generation that no longer wished to be the anvil, but to wield the hammer. Two men came to the front. King William I. and the hero of the Saxon forest. Resolutely they united the forces of the nation, which at first opposed them from ignorance, and broke down the selfishness and dogmatic positivism of the popular repre- sentatives. A victorious campaign settled matters with Austria, who did not willingly cede the supremacy in Germany, and left the German Imperial confederation without forfeiting her place as a Great Power. France was brought to the ground with a mighty blow; the vast majority of the German peoples united under the Imperial crown which the King of Prussia wore; the old idea of the German Empire was revived in a federal shape by the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria, and Italy. The German idea, as Bismarck fancied it, ruled from the North Sea to the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Like a phcenix from the ashes, the German giant rose from the sluggard-bed of the old German Confederation, and stretched his mighty limbs. It was an obvious and inevitable result that this awaken- ing of Germany vitally affected the other nations which had hitherto divided the economic and political power. Hostile combinations threatened us on all sides in order to check the further expansion of our power. Hemmed in between France and Russia, who allied themselves against us, we failed to gather the full fruits of our vic- tories. The shortsightedness and party feuds of the newly- formed Reichstag — the old hereditary failings of our nation — prevented any colonial policy on broad lines. The in- tense love of peace, which the nation and Government felt, made us fall behind in the race with other countries. In the most recent partition of the earth, that of Africa, victorious Germany came off badly. France, her defeated GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 6; opponent, was able to found the second largest colonial Empire in the world; England appropriated the most im- portant portions; even small and neutral Belgium claimed a comparatively large and valuable share; Germany was forced to be content with some modest strips of territory. In addition to, and in connection with, the political changes, new views and new forces have come forward. Under the influence of the constitutional ideas of Frederick the Great, and the crop of new ideas borne by the French Revolution, the conception of the State has completely changed since the turn of the century. The patrimonial state of the Middle Ages was the hereditary possession of the Sovereign. Hence sprung the modern State, which represents the Reverse of this relation, in which the Sovereign is the first servant of the State, and the interest of the State, and not of the ruler, is the key to the policy of the Government. With this altered con- ception of the State the principle of nationality has grad- ually developed, of which the tendency is as follows: Historical boundaries are to be disregarded, and the nations combined into a political whole; the State will thus acquire a uniform national character and common national interests. This new order of things entirely altered the basis of international relations, and set new and unknown duties before the statesmen. Commerce and trade also developed on wholly new lines. After 1815 the barriers to every activity — guilds and trade restrictions — were gradually removed. Landed prop- erty ceased to be a monopoly. Commerce and industries flourished conspicuously. "England introduced the uni- versal employment of coal and iron and of machinery into industries, thus founding immense industrial estab- lishments ; by steamers and railways she brought machinery into commerce, at the same time effecting an industrial revolution by physical science and chemistry, and won the control of the markets of the world by cotton. There came, besides, the enormous extension of the command of credit in the widest sense, the exploitation of India, the extension of colonization over Polynesia, etc." England 68 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR at the same time girdled the earth with her cables and fleets. She thus attained to a sort of world-sovereignty. She has tried to found a new universal Empire; not, indeed, by spiritual or secular weapons, like Pope and Em- peror in bygone days, but by the power of money, by making all material interests dependent on herself. Facing her, between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, linking the West and the East, the United States of North America have risen to be an industrial and commercial power of the first rank. Supported by exceptionally abundant natural resources, and the unscrupulously pushing character of her inhabitants, this mighty Empire aims at a suitable recognition of her power in the council of the nations, and is on the point of securing this by the building of a powerful navy. Russia has not only strengthened her position in Europe, but has extended her power over the entire North of Asia, and is pressing farther into the centre of that continent. She has already crossed swords with the States of the Mongolian race. This vast population, which fills the east of the Asiatic continent, has, after thousands of years of dormant civilization, at last awakened to political life, and categorically claims its share in inter- national life. The entrance of Japan into the circle of the great World Powers means a call to arms. "Asia for the Asiatics," is the phrase which she whispers beneath her breath, trusting in the strength of her demand. The new Great Power has emerged victoriously from its first encounter with a European foe. China, too, is preparing to expand her forces outwardly. A mighty movement is thrilling Asia — the awakening of a new epoch. Dangers, then, which have already assumed a profound importance for the civilized countries of Europe, are threatening from Asia, the old cradle of the nations. But even in the heart of the European nations, forces which have slumbered hitherto are now awake. The persisting ideas of the French Revolution and the great industrial progress which charactertized the last century, have roused the working classes of every country to a con- sciousness of their importance and their social power. The GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 69 workers, originally concerned only in the amelioration of 1 their material position, have, in theory, abandoned the basis of the modern State, and seek their salvation in the revolution which they preach. They do not wish to obtain what they can within the limitations of the historically recognized State, but they wish to substitute for it a new State, in which they themselves are the rulers. By this aspiration they not only perpetually menace State and society, but endanger in the separate countries the indus- tries from which they live, since they threaten to destroy the possibility of competing in the international markets by continuous increase of wages and decrease of work. Even in Germany this movement has affected large sections of the population. Until approximately the middle of the last century, agriculture and cattle-breeding formed the chief and most important part of German industries. Since then, under the protection of wise tariffs, and in connection with the rapid growth of the German merchant navy, trade has marvellously increased. Germany has become an indus- trial and trading nation ; almost the whole of the growing increase of the population finds work and employment in this sphere. Agriculture has more and more lost its leading position in the economic Hfe of the people. The artisan class has thus become a power in our State. It is organized in trade unions, and has politically fallen under the influence of the international social democracy. It is hostile to the national class distinctions, and strains every nerve to undermine the existing power of the State. It is evident that the State cannot tolerate quietly this dangerous agitation, and that it must hinder, by every means, the efforts of the anti-constitutionalist party to effect their purpose. The law of self-preservation demands this ; but it is clear that, to a certain point, the pretensions of the working classes are justified. The citizen may fairly claim to protect himself from poverty by work, and to have an opportunity of raising himself in the social scale, if he willingly devotes his powers. He is entitled to demand that the State should grant this claim, and should be bound to protect him against the tyranny of capital. 70 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Two means of attaining such an object are open to the State: first, it may create opportunities of work, which secure remunerative employment to all willing hands; secondly, it may insure the workman by legislation against every diminution in his capacity to work owing to sick- ness, age, or accident; may give him material assistance when temporarily out of work, and protect him against compulsion which may hinder him from working. The economical prosperity of Germany as the visible result of three victorious campaigns created a labour market sufficiently large for present purposes, although without the conscious intention of the State. German labour, under the protection of the political power, gained a market for itself. On the other hand, the German State has intervened with legislation, with full conscious- ness of the end and the means. As Scharnhorst once con- trasted the duty of th^ citizens with the rights of man, so the Emperor William I. recognized the duty of the State towards those who were badly equipped with the neces- saries of life. The position of the worker was assured, so far as circumstances allowed, by social legislation. No excuse, therefore, for revolutionary agitation now existed. A vigorous opposition to all the encroachments of the social democrats indicated the only right way in which the justifiable efforts of the working class could be reconciled with the continuance of the existing State and of existing society, the two pillars of all civilization and progress. This task is by no means completed. The ques- tion still is, How to win back the working class to the ideals of State and country? Willing workers must be still further protected against social democratic tyranny. Germany, nevertheless, is in social-political respects at the head of all progress in culture. German science has held its place in the world. Germany certainly took the lead in political sciences during the last century, and in all other domains of intellectual inquiry has won a prominent position through the universality of her philosophy and her thorough and unprejudiced research into the nature of things. The achievements of Germany in the sphere of science GERMANY'S DEVELOPMENT 71 and literature are attested by the fact that the annual export of German books to foreign countries is, according to trustworthy estimates, twice as large as that of France, England, and North America combined. It is only in the domain of the exact sciences that Germany has often been compelled to give precedence to foreign countries. German art also has failed to win a leading position. It shows, indeed, sound promise in many directions, and has produced much that is really great; but the chaos of our political conditions is, unfortunately, reflected in it. The German Empire has politically been split up into numerous parties. Not only are the social democrats and the middle class opposed, but they, again, are divided among them- selves; not only are industries and agriculture bitter enemies, but the national sentiment has not yet been able to vanquish denominational antagonisms, and the his- torical hostility between North and South has prevented the population from growing up into a completely united body. So stands Germany to-day, torn by internal dissensions, yet full of sustained strength ; threatened on all sides by dangers, compressed into narrow, unnatural limits, she still is filled with high aspirations, in her nationality, her intellectual development, in her science, industries, and trade. And now, what paths does this history indicate to us for the future? What duties are enforced on us by the past? It is a question of far-reaching importance; for on the way in which the German State answers this question, depend not only our own further development, but to some extent the subsequent shaping of the history of the world. CHAPTER IV GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION Let us pass before our mind's eye the whole course of our historical development, and let us picture to ourselves the life-giving streams of human beings, that in every age have poured forth from the Empire of Central Europe to all parts of the globe ; let us reflect what rich seeds of intellectual and moral development were sown by the German intellectual life : the proud conviction forces itself upon us with irresistible power that a high, if not the highest, importance for the entire development of the human race is ascribable to this German people. This conviction is based on the intellectual merits of our nation, on the freedom and the universality of the German spirit, which have ever and again been shown in the course of its history. There is no natjon whose thiriking is at once so free from prejudice and so historical, as-_the German, which knows how to unite so harmoniously the freedom of the intellectual and the restraint of the prac- tical life on the path of free and natural development^ The Germans have thus always been the standard-bearers of free thought, but at the same time a strong bulwark against revolutionary anarchical outbreaks^ They have often been worsted in the struggle for intellectual free- dom, and poured out their best heart's blood in the cause. Intellectual compulsion has sometimes ruled the Germans ; revolutionary tremors have shaken the life of this people — the great peasant war in the sixteenth cen- tury, and the political attempts at revolution in the middle of the nineteenth century. But the revolutionary move- ment has been checked and directed into the paths of a healthy natural advancement. The inevitable need of a ^2 GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION 73 free intellectual self-determination has again and again dis- engaged itself from the inner life of the soul of the people, and broadened into world-historical importance. Thus two great movements were born from the German intellectual life, on which, henceforth, all the intellectual and moral progress of man must rest: the Reformation and the critical philosophy. The Reformation, which broke the intellectual yoke, imposed by the Church, which checked all free progress; and the Critique of Pure Reason, which put a stop to the caprice of philosophic speculation by defining for the human mind the limitations of its capa- city for knowledge, and at the same time pointed out in what way knowledge is really possible. On this sub- structure was developed the intellectual life of our time, whose deepest significance consists in the attempt to recon- cile the result of free inquiry with the religious needs of the heart, and to lay a foundation for the harmonious organization of mankind. Torn this way and that, between hostile forces, in a continuous feud between faith and knowledge, mankind seems to have lost the straight road of progress. Reconciliation only appears possible when the thought of religious reformation leads to a permanent explanation of the idea of religion, and science remains conscious of the limits of its power, and does not attempt to explain the domain of the supersensual world from the results of natural philosophy. The German nation not only laid the foundations of this great struggle for an harmonious development of humanity, but took the lead in it. We are thus incurring an obligation for the future, from which we cannot shrink. We must be prepared to be the leaders in this campaign, which is being fought for the highest stake that has been offered to human efforts. Our nation is not only bound by its past history to take part in this struggle, but is peculiarly adapted to do so by its special qualities. No nation on the face of the globe is so able to grasp and appropriate all the elements of culture, to add to them from the stories of its own spiritual endowment, and to give back to mankind richer gifts than it received. It has "enriched the store of traditional European culture with 74 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR new and independent ideas and ideals, and won a position in the great community of civilized nations which none else could fill." "Depth of conviction, idealism, univer- sality, the power to look beyond all the limits of a finite existence, to sympathize with all that is human, to traverse the realm of ideas in companionship with the noblest of all nations and ages — this has at all times been the German characteristic; this has been extolled as the prerogative -of German culture." * To no nation, except the Ger- man, has it been given to enjoy in its inner self "that which is given to mankind as a whole." We often see in other nations a greater intensity of specialized ability, but never the same capacity for generalization and absorption. It is this quality which specially fits us for the leadership in the intellectual world, and imposes on us the obligation to maintain that position. Inhere are numerous other tasks to be fulfilled if we are to discharge our highest duty. They form the necessary platform from which we can mount to the highest goal. These duties lie in the domains of science and politics, and also in that borderland where science and politics touch, and where the latter is often directly conditioned by the results of scientific inquiry. First and foremost it is German science which must regain its superiority in unwearying and brilliant research in order, to vindicate our birthright. On the one hand, we must extend the theory of the perceptive faculty; on the other, we must increase man's dominion over Nature by exploring her hidden secrets, and thus make human work more useful and remunerative. We must endeavour to find scientific solutions of the great problems which deeply concern mankind. We need not restrict ourselves to the sphere of pure theory, but must try to benefit civilization by the practical results of research, and thus create conditions of life in which a purer conception of the ideal life can find its expression. It is, broadly speaking, religious and social controversies which exercise the most permanent influence on human existence, and condition not only our future development, *Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte,'' i., p. 95. GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION 75 but the higher life generally. These problems have occu- pied the minds of no people more deeply and permanently than our own. Yet the revolutionary spirit, in spite of the empty ravings of social democratic agitators, finds no place in Germany. The German nature tends towards a systematic healthy development, which works slowly in opposition to the different movements. The Germans thus seem thoroughly qualified to settle in their own country the great controversies which are rending other nations, and to direct them into the paths of a natural progress in conformity with the laws of evolution. We have already started on the task in the social sphere, and shall no doubt continue it, so far as it is compatible with the advantages of the community and the working class itself. We must not spare any efforts to find other means than those already adopted to inspire the working class with healthy and patriotic ambitions. It is to be hoped, in any case, that if ever a great and common duty, requiring the concentration of the whole national strength, is imposed upon us, that the labour classes will not withhold their co-operation, and that, in face of a common danger, our nation will recover that unity which is lamentably deficient to-day. No attempt at settlement has been made in the religious domain. The old antagonists are still bitterly hostile to each other, especially in Germany. It will be the duty of the future to mitigate the religious and political an- tagonism of the denominations, under guarantees of abso- lute liberty of thought and all personal convictions, and to combine the conflicting views into a harmonious and higher system. At present there appears small prob- ability of attaining this end. The dogmatism of Protestant orthodoxy and the Jesuitic tendencies and ultramontanism of the Catholics, must be surmounted, before any common religious movement can be contemplated. But no German statesman can disregard this aspect of affairs, nor must he ever forget that the greatness of our nation is rooted exclusively on Protestantism. Legally and socially all denominations enjoy equal rights, but the German State must never renounce the leadership in the domain of free 76 ' ' GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR spiritual development. To do so would mean loss of prestige. Duties of the greatest importance for the whole advance of human civilization have thus been transmitted to the German nation, as heir of a great and glorious past. It is faced with problems of no less significance in the sphere of its international relations. These problems are of special importance, since they affect most deeply the intellectual development, and on their solution depends the position of Germany in the world. The German Empire has suffered great losses of territory in the storms and struggles of the past. The Germany of to-day, considered geographically, is a mutilated torso of the old dominions of the" Emperors ; it comprises only a fraction of the German peoples. A large number of German fellow-countrymen have been incorporated into other States, or live in political independence, like the Dutch, who have developed into a separate nationality, but in language and national customs cannot deny their German ancestry. Germany has been robbed of her natural boundaries; even the source and mouth of the most characteristically German stream, the much lauded German Rhine, lie outside the German territory. On the eastern frontier, too, where the strength of the modern German Empire grew up in centuries of war against the Slavs, the possessions of Germany are menaced. The Slavonic waves are ever dashing more furiously against the coast of that Germanism, which seems to have lost its old victorious strength. Signs of political weakness are visible here, while for centuries the overflow of the strength of the German nation has poured into foreign countries, and been lost to our fatherland and to our nationality; it is absorbed by foreign nations and steeped with foreign sentiments. Even to-day the German Empire possesses no colonial ter- ritories where its increasing population may find remunera- tive work and a German way of living. This is obviously not a condition which can satisfy a powerful nation, or corresponds to the greatness of the German nation and its intellectual importance. GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION ^^ At an earlier epoch, to be sure, when Germans had in the course of centuries grown accustomed to the degrada- tion of being robbed of all political significance, a large section of our people did not feel this insufficiency. Even during the age of our classical literature the patriotic pride of that idealistic generation "was contented with the thought that no other people could follow the bold flights of German genius or soar aloft to the freedom of our world citizenship." * Schiller, in 1797, could write the lines: "German majesty and honour Fall not with the princes' crown; When amid the flames of war German Empire crashes down, German greatness stands unscathed." t The nobler and better section of our nation, at any rate, holds different sentiments to-day. We attach a higher value to the influence of the German spirit on universal cul- ture than was then possible, since we must now take into consideration the immense development of Germany in the nineteenth century, and can thus better estimate the old importance of our classical literature. Again, we have learnt from the vicissitudes of our historical growth to recognize that the full and due measure of intellectual development can only be achieved by the political federa- tion of our nation. The dominion of German thought can only be extended under the aegis of political power, and unless we act in conformity to this idea, we shall be untrue to our great duties towards the human race. Our first and positive duty consists, therefore, in zealously guarding the territories of Germany, as they now are, and in not surrendering a foot's breadth of German soil to foreign nationalities. On the west the ambitious schemes of the Latin race have been checked, and it is hard to imagine that we shall ever allow this prize of victory to be snatched again from our hands. On *Treitschke, "Deutsche Geschichte," i., p. 195. t Fragment of a poem on "German Greatness," published in 1905 by Bernhard Suphan. 78 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the south-east the Turks, who formerly threatened the civilized countries of Europe, have been completely re- pulsed. They now take a very different position in Euro- pean politics from that which they filled at the time of their victorious advance westwards. Their power on the ^Mediterranean is entirely destroyed. fOn the other hand, the Slavs have become a formidable power. Vast regions which were once under German influence are now once • more subject to Slavonic rule, and seem permanently lost to us. The present Russian Baltic provinces were for- merly flourishing seats of German culture. The German element in Austria, our ally, is gravely menaced by the Slavs; Germany herself is exposed to a perpetual peace- ful invasion of Slavonic workmen. Many Poles are firmly established in the heart of Westphalia. Only faint-hearted measures are taken to-day to stem this Slavonic flood. And yet to check this onrush of Slavism is not merely an obligation inherited from our fathers, but a duty in the interests of self-preservation and European civilization. It cannot yet be determined whether we can keep oflf this vast flood by pacific precautions. It is not improb- able that the question of Germanic or Slavonic suprem- acy will be once more decided by the sword. The prob- ability of such a conflict grows stronger as we become more lax in pacific measures of defence, and show less determination to protect the German soil at allcosts.^ """T.'he further duty of supporting the Germans in foreign countries in their struggle for existence and of thus keeping them loyal to their nationality, is one from which, in our direct interests, we cannot withdraw. The isolated groups of Germans abroad greatly benefit our trade, since by preference they obtain their goods from Germany ; but they may also be useful to us politically, as we discover in America. The American-Germans have formed a political alliance with the Irish, and thus united, constitute a power in the State, with which the Government must reckoriTJ Finally, from the point of view of civiUzation, it is im- perative to preserve the German spirit, and by so doing to establish foci of universal culture. GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION 79 Even if we succeed in guarding our possessions in the East and West, and in preserving the German nationality in its present form throughout the world, we shall not be able to maintain our present position, powerful as it is, in the great competition with the other Powers, if we are con- tented to restrict ourselves to our present sphere of power, while the surrounding countries are busily extending their dominions. If we wish to compete further with them, a policy which our population and our civilization both entitle and compel us to adopt, we must not hold back in the hard struggle for the sovereignty of the world. Lord Rosebery, speaking at the Royal Colonial Institute on March i, 1893, expressed himself as follows : "It is said that our Empire is already large enough and does not need expansion. . . . We shall have to consider not what we want now, but what we want in the future. . . . We have to remember that it is part of our responsibility and heritage to take care that the world, so far as it can be moulded by us, should receive the Anglo-Saxon and not another charac^ter." * That is a great and proud thought which the English- man then expressed. If we count the nations who speak English at the present day, and if we survey the countries which acknowledge the rule of England, we must admit that he is justified from the English point of view. He does not here contemplate an actual world-sovereignty, but the predominance of the English spirit is proclaimed in plain language. England has certainly done a great work of civilization, especially from the material aspect; but her work is one- sided. All the colonies which are directly subject to Eng- lish rule are primarily exploited in the interest of Eng- lish industries and English capital. The work of civiliza- tion, which England undeniably has carried out among them, has always been subordinated to this idea; she has never justified her sovereignty by training up a free and independent population, and by transmitting to the sub- ject peoples the blessings of an independent culture * This passage is quoted in- the book of the French ex-Minister Hanotaux, "Fashoda et le partage de I'Afrique." 8o GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR of their own. With regard to those colonies which enjoy self-government, and are therefore more or less free re- publics, as Canada, Australia, South Africa, it is very ques- tionable whether, they will permanently retain any trace of the English spirit. They are not only growing States, but growing nations, and it seems uncertain at the present time whether England will be able to include them permanently in the Empire, to make them serviceable to English indus- tries, or even to secure that the national character is Eng- lish. Nevertheless, it is a great and proud ambition that is expressed in Lord Rosebery's words, and it testifies to a supreme national self-confidence. The French regard with no less justifiable satisfaction the work done by them in the last forty years. In 1909 the former French Minister, Hanotaux, gave expression to this pride in the following words : "Ten years ago the work of founding our colonial Empire was finished. France has claimed her rank among the four great Powers. She is at home in every quarter of the globe. French is spoken, and will continue to be spoken, in Africa, Asia, America, Oceania. Seeds of sovereignty are sown in all parts of the world. They will prosper under the protection of Heaven." * The same statesman criticized, with ill-concealed hatred, the German policy : "It will be for history to decide what has been the leading thought of Germany and her Govern- ment during the complicated disputes under which the partition of Africa and the last phase of French colonial policy were ended. We may assume that at first the ad- herents to Bismarck's policy saw with satisfaction how France embarked on distant and difficult undertakings, which would fully occupy the attention of the country and its Government for long years to come. Nevertheless, it is not certain that this calculation has proved right in the long-run, since Germany ultimately trod the same road, and, somewhat late, indeed, tried to make up for lost time. If that country deliberately abandoned colonial enterprise to others, it cannot be surprised if these have obtained the best shares." * Hanotaux, "Fashoda et le partage de I'Af rique." GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION 8i This French criticism is not altogether unfair. It must be admitted with mortification and envy that the nation vanquished in 1870, whose vital powers seemed exhausted, which possessed no qualification for colonization from want of men to colonize, as is best seen in Algeria, has yet created the second largest colonial Empire in the world, and prides herself on being a World Power, while the con- queror of Gravelotte and Sedan in this respect lags far behind her, and only recently, in the Morocco controversy, yielded to the unjustifiable pretensions of France in a way which, according to universal popular sentiment, was un- worthy alike of the dignity and the interests of Germany. The openly declared claims of England and France are the more worthy of attention since an entente prevails be- tween the two countries. In the face of these claims the German nation, from the standpoint of its importance to civilization, is fully entitled not only to demand a place in the sun, as Prince Biilow used modestly to express it, but to aspire to an adequate share in the sovereignty of the world far beyond the limits of its present sphere of influence. But we can only reach this goal, by so amply securing our position in Europe, that it can never again be questioned. Then only we need no longer fear that we shall be opposed by stronger opponents whenever we take part in international politics. We shall then be able to exercise our forces freely in fair rivalry with the other World Powers, and secure to German nationality and Ger- man spirit throughout the globe that high esteem which is due to them. Such an expansion of power, befitting our importance, is not merely a fanciful scheme — it will soon appear as a political necessity. The fact has already been mentioned that, owing to political union and improved economic conditions during the last forty years, an era of great prosperity has set in, and that German industries have been widely extended and German trade has kept pace with them. The extraordi- nary capacity of the German nation for trade and naviga- tion has once more brilliantly asserted itself. The days of the Hanseatic League have returned. The labour re- 82 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR sources of our nation increase continuously. The increase of the population in the German Empire alone amounts yearly to a million souls, and these have, to a large extent, found remunerative industrial occupation. ^ There is, however, a reverse side to this picture of splen- did development. We are absolutely dependent on foreign countries for the import of raw materials, and to a con- siderable extent also for the sale of our own manufac- tures. We even obtain a part of our necessaries of life from abroad. Then, agaiil, we have not the assured mar- kets which England possesses in her colonies. Our own colonies are unable to take much of our products, and the great foreign economic spheres try to close their doors to outsiders, especially Germans, in order to encourage their own industries, and to make themselves independent of other countries. The livelihood of our working classes directly depends on the maintenance and expansion of our export trade. It is a question of life and death for us to keep open our oversea commerce. We shall very soon see ourselves compelled to find for our growing popula- tion means of life other than industrial employment. It is out of the question that this latter can keep pace per- manently with the increase of population. Agriculture will employ a small part of this increase, and home settlements may afford some relief. But no remunerative occupation will ever be found within the borders of the existing Ger- man Empire for the whole population, however favour- able our international relations. We shall soon, therefore, be faced by the question, whether we wish to surrender the coming generations to foreign countries, as formerly in the hour of our decline, or whether we wish to take steps to find them a home in our own German colonies, and so retain them for the fatherland. There is no pos- sible doubt how this question must be answered. If the unfortunate course of our history has hitherto prevented us from building a colonial Empire, it is our duty to make up for lost time, and at once to construct a fleet which, in defiance of all hostile Powers, may keep our sea communis cations open. We have long underestimated the importance of colonies. GERMANY'S HISTORICAL MISSION 83 Colonial possessions which merely serve the purpose of acquiring wealth, and are only used for economic ends, while the owner-State does not think of colonizing in any form or raising the position of the aboriginal population in the economic or social scale, are unjustifiable and im- moral, and can never be held permanently. "But that colonization which retains a uniform nationality has be- come a factor of immense importance for the future of the world. It will determine the degree in which each nation shares in the government of the world by the white ' race. It is quite imaginable that a country which owns no colonies will no longer count among the European Great Powers, however powerful it may otherwise be." * -^ We are already suffering severely from the want of col- onies to meet our requirements. They would not merely guarantee a livelihood to our growing working popula- tion, but would supply raw materials and foodstuffs, would buy goods, and open a field of activity to that immense capital of intellectual labour forces which is to-day lying unproductive in Germany, or is in the service of foreign interests. We find throughout the countries of the world German merchants, engineers, and men of every profes- sion, employed actively in the service of foreign masters, because German colonies, when they might be profitably engaged, do not exist. In the future, however, the im- portance of Germany will depend on two points; firstly, how many millions of men in the world speak German? secondly, how many of them are politically members of the German Empire ? These are heavy and complicated duties, which have devolved on us from the entire past development of our nation, and are determined by its present condition as re- gards the future. We must be quite clear on this point, that no nation has had to reckon with the same difficul- ties and hostility as ours. This is due to the many re- strictions of our political relations, to our unfavourable geographical position, and to the course of our history. It was chiefly our own fault that we were condemned to * Treitschke, "Politik," i., § 8. 84 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR political paralysis at the time when the great European States built themselves up, and sometimes expanded into World Powers. We did not enter the circle of the Powers, whose decision carried weight in politics, until late, when the partition of the globe was long concluded. All which other nations attained in centuries of natural develop- ment — ^political union, colonial possessions, naval power, international trade — was denied to our nation until quite recently. What we now wish to attain must be fought for, and won, against a superior force of hostile interests and Powers. It is all the more emphatically our duty plainly to per- ceive what paths we wish to take, and what our goals are, so as not to split up our forces in false directions, and involuntarily to diverge from the straight road of our intended development. The difficulty of our political position is in a certain sense an advantage. By keeping us in a continually increasing state of tension, it has at least protected us so far from the lethargy which so often follows a long period of peace and growing wealth. It has forced us to stake all our spiritual and material forces in order to rise to every occa- sion, and has thus discovered and strengthened resources which will be of great value whenever we shall be called upon to draw the sword. CHAPTER V WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL In discussing the duties which fall to the German nation from its history and its general as well as particular endow- ments, we attempted to prove that a consolidation and expansion of our position among the Great Powers of Europe, and an extension of our colonial possessions, must be the basis of our future development. The political questions thus raised intimately concern all international relations, and should be thoroughly weighed. We must not aim at the impossible. A reckless policy would be foreign to our national character and our high aims and duties. But we must aspire to the possible, even at the risk of war. This policy we have seen to be both our right and our duty. The longer we look at things with folded hands, the harder it will be to make up the start which the other Powers have gained on us. "The man of sense will by the forelock clutch Whatever lies within his power, Stick fast to it, and neither shirk. Nor from his enterprise be thrust, But, having once begun to work, Go working on because he must." Faust. (Translated by Sir Theodore Martin.) The sphere in which we can realize our ambition is circumscribed by the hostile intentions of the other World Powers, by the existing territorial conditions, and by the armed force which is at the back of both. Our policy must necessarily be determined by the consideration of these conditions. We must accurately, and without bias or timidity, examine the circumstances which turn the scale 8S 86 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR when the forces which concern us are weighed one against the other. These considerations fall partly within the military, but belong mainly to the political sphere, in so far as the political grouping of the States allows a survey of the military resources of the parties. We must try to realize this grouping. The shifting aims of the politics of the day need not be our standard ; they are often coloured by considerations of present expediency, and offer no firm basis for forming an opinion. We must rather endeavour to recognize the political views and intentions of the in- dividual States, which are based on the nature of things, and therefore will continually make their importance felt. The broad lines of policy are ultimately laid down by the permanent interests of a country, although they may often be mistaken from short-sightedness or timidity, and al- though policy sometimes takes a course which does not seem warranted from the standpoint of lasting national benefits. Policy is not an exact science, following neces- sary laws, but is made by men who impress on it the stamp of their strength or their weakness, and often divert it from the path of true national interests. Such digres- sions must not be ignored. The statesman who seizes his opportunity will often profit by these political fluctuations. But the student who considers matters from the stand- point of history must keep his eyes mainly fixed on those interests which seem permanent. We must therefore try to make the international situation in this latter sense clear, so far as it concerns Germany's power and ambitions. We see the European Great Powers divided into two great camps. On the one side Germany, Austria, and Italy have con- cluded a defensive alliance, whose sole object is to guard against hostile aggression. In this alliance the two first- named States form the solid, probably unbreakable, core, since by the nature of things they are intimately con- nected. The geographical conditions force this result. The two States combined form a compact series of territories from the Adriatic to the North Sea and the Baltic. Their close union is due also to historical national and political WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 87 conditions. Austrians have fought shoulder to shoulder with Prussians and Germans of the Empire on a hun- dred battlefields; Germans are the backbone of the Aus- trian dominions, the bond of union that holds together the different nationalities of the Empire. Austria, more than Germany, must guard against the inroads of Slavism, since numerous Slavonic races are comprised in her terri- tories. There has been no conflict of interests between the two States since the struggle for the supremacy in Germany was decided. The maritime and commercial interests of the one point to the south and southeast, those of the other to the north. Any feebleness in the one must react detrimentally on the political relations of the other. A quarrel between Germany and Austria would leave both States at the mercy of overwhelmingly powerful enemies. The possibility of each maintaining its political position depends on their standing by each other. It may be assumed that the relations uniting the two States will be permanent so long as Germans and Magyars are the leading nationalities in the Danubian monarchy. It was one of the master-strokes of Bismarck's policy to have recognized the community of Austro-German interests even during the war of 1866, and boldly to have concluded a peace which rendered such an alliance possible. The weakness of the Austrian Empire lies in the strong admixture of Slavonic elements, which are hostile to the German population, and show many signs of Pan-Slavism. It is not at present, however, strong enough to influence the poHtical position of the Empire. Italy, also, is bound to the Triple Alliance by her true interests. The antagonism to Austria, which has run through Italian history, will diminish when the needs of expansion in other spheres, and of creating a natural chan- nel for the increasing population, are fully recognized by Italy. Neither condition is impossible. Irredentism will then lose its political significance, for the position, which belongs to Italy from her geographical situation and her past history, and will promote her true interests if attained, cannot be won in a war with Austria. It is the position of a leading political and commercial Mediterranean Power. 88 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR That is the natural heritage which she can claim. Neither Germany nor Austria is a rival in this claim, but France, since she has taken up a permanent position on the coast of North Africa, and especially in Tunis, has appropri- ated a country which would have been the most hatural colony for Italy, and has, in point of fact, been largely colonized by Italians. It would, in my opinion, have been politically right for us, even at the risk of a war with France, to protest against this annexation, and to pre- serve the territory of Carthage for Italy. We should have considerably strengthened Italy's position on the Mediter- ranean, and created a cause of contention between Italy and France that would have added to the security of the Triple Alliance. The weakness of this alliance consists in its purely de- fensive character. It offers a certain security against hos- tile aggression, but does not consider the necessary develop- ment of events, and does not guarantee to any of its members help in the prosecution of its essential inter- ests. It is based on a status quo, which was fully justi- fied in its day, but has been left far behind by the march of political events. Prince Bismarck, in his "Thoughts and Reminiscences," pointed out that this alliance would not always correspond to the requirements of the future! Since Italy found the Triple Alliance did not aid her Mediterranean policy, she tried to effect a pacific agree- ment with England and France, and accordingly retired from the Triple Alliance. The results of this policy are manifest to-day. Italy, under an undisguised arrangement with England and France, but in direct opposition to the interests of the Triple Alliance, attacked Turkey, in order to conquer Tripoli, the required colonial territory. This undertaking brought her to the brink of a war with Austria, which, as the supreme Power in the Balkan Penin- sula, can never tolerate the encroachment of Italy into those regions. The Triple Alliance, which in itself represents a natural league, has suffered a rude shock. The ultimate reason for this result is found in the fact that the parties con- cerned with a narrow, short-sighted policy look only to WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 89 their immediate private interests, and pay no regard to the vital needs of the members of the league. The alli- ance will not regain its original strength until, under the protection of the allied armies, each of the three States can satisfy its political needs. We must therefore be solicitous to promote Austria's position in the Balkans, and Italy's interests on the Mediterranean. Only then can we calculate on finding in our allies assistance towards realizing our own political endeavours. Since, however, it is against all our interests to strengthen Italy at the cost of Turkey, which is, as we shall see, an essential member of the Triple Alliance, we must repair the errors of the past, and in the next great war win back Tunis for Italy. Only then will Bismarck's great conception of the Triple Alliance reveal its real meaning. But the Triple Alliance, so long as it only aims at negative results, and leaves it to the individual allies to pursue their vital in- terests exclusively by their own resources, will be smitten with sterility. On the surface, Italy's Mediterranean in- terests do . not concern us closely. But their real impor- tance for us is shown by the consideration that the with- drawal of Italy from the Triple Alliance, or, indeed, its secession to an Anglo-Franco-Russian entente, would proba- bly be the signal for a great European war against us and Austria. Such a development would gravely prejudice the lasting interests of Italy, for she would forfeit her political independence by so doing, and incur the risk of sinking to a sort of vassal state of France. Such a con- tingency is not unthinkable, for, in judging the policy of Italy, we must not disregard her relations with England as well as with France. England is clearly a hindrance in the way of Italy's jus- tifiable efforts to win a prominent position in the Mediter- ranean. She possesses in Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Egypt, and Aden a chain of strong bases, which secure the sea- route to India, and she has an unqualified interest in com- manding this great road through the Mediterranean. Eng- land's Mediterranean fleet is correspondingly strong and would — especially in combination with the French Mediter- ranean squadron — seriously menace the coasts of Italy, 90 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR should that country be entangled in a war against England and France. Italy is therefore obviously con- cerned in avoiding such a war, as long as the bal- ance of maritime power is unchanged. She is thus in an extremely difficult double position; herself a mem- ber of the Triple Alliance, she is in a situation which compels her to make overtures to the opponents of that alliance, so long as her own allies can afford no trustworthy assistance to her policy of development. It is our interest to reconcile Italy and Turkey so far as we can. France and Russia have united in opposition to the Central European Triple Alliance. France's European policy is overshadowed by the idea of revanche. For that she makes the most painful sacrifices; for that she has forgotten the hundred years' enmity against England and the humiliation of- Fashoda. She wishes first to take vengeance for the defeats of 1870-71, which wounded her national pride to the quick; she wishes to raise her political prestige by a victory over Germany, and, if possible, to regain that former supremacy on the continent of Europe which she so long and brilliantly maintained; she wishes, if fortune smiles on her arms, to reconquer Alsace and Lorraine. But she feels too weak for an attack on Germany. Her whole foreign policy, in spite of all protestations of peace, follows the single aim of gaining allies for this attack. Her alliance with Russia, her entente with England, are inspired with this spirit; her present intimate relations with this latter nation are traceable to the fact that the French policy hoped, and with good reason, for more active help from England's hostility to Germany than from Russia. The colonial policy of France pursues primarily the object of acquiring a material, and, if possible, military superiority over Germany. The establishment of a native African army, the contemplated introduction of a modified system of conscription in Algeria, and the political annexation of Morocco, which offers excellent raw material for soldiers, so clearly exhibit this intention that there can be no possible illusion as to its extent and meEinmg. WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 91 Since France has succeeded in bringing her military strength to approximately the same level as Germany, since she has acquired in her North African Empire the pos- sibility of considerably increasing that strength, since she has completely outstripped Germany in the sphere of colonial policy, and has not only kept up, but also revived, the French sympathies of Alsace and Lorraine, the con- clusion is obvious : France will not abandon the paths of an anti-German policy, but will do her best to excite hostility against us, and to thwart German interests in every quarter of the globe. When she came t o an under- standing with the Italians that she^_shouia ■^^^SXSEZ? free~"RanH™iirTiTofqcco...if "she ^ToweH '^^Kenito-.ii ccup y^ Tr^ol^^T^wedge was driven into jhe Tri ple Alliance which Tlireateihs t ^J TH lllLiiF"^'-^ 'may'be regarded as highly im- probable that she will maintain honourably and with no arriere-pensee the obligations undertaken in the interests of German commerce in Morocco. The suppression of these interests was, in fact, a marked feature of the French Morocco policy, which was conspicuously anti-German. The French policy was so successful that we shall have to reckon more than ever on the hostility of France in the future. ]i. ^Km-^. 1?? reg^arfed^^s^aomte^ uM proposition ,.^at_^jn agreemerU^EetweetTTrance and Ger- ™S2X..£SP^fe.Jl£SS*-^^^ ^^^^""^ ^^^ quesR^orf^etween ' t|i«n.i has been cfnce more 3'ecided°"by; arms. ~ Such^ ail' agreement iTtKelesT likely ' now ffiat Fi^atice'sides with England, to whose interest it is to repress Germany but strengthen France. Another picture meets our eyes if we turn to the East, where the giant Russian Empire towers above all others. The Empire of the Czar, in consequence of its defeat in Manchuria, and of the revolution which was precipi- tated by the disastrous war, is following apparently a pol- icy of recuperation. It has tried to come to an under- standing with Japan in the Far East, and with England in Central Asia; in the Balkans its policy aims at the maintenance of the status quo. So far it does not seem to have entertained any idea of war with Germany. The Potsdam agreement, whose importance cannot be overesti- 92 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR mated, shows that we need not anticipate at present any- aggressive policy on Russia's part. The ministry of Ko- kowzew seems likely to wish to continue this policy of recuperation, and has the more reason for doing so, as the murder of Stolypin with its accompanying events showed, as it were by a flash of lightning, a dreadful picture of internal disorder and revolutionary intrigue. It is improbable, therefore, that Russia would now be in- clined to make armed intervention in favour of France. The Russo-French alliance is not, indeed, swept away, and there is no doubt that Russia would, if the necessity arose, meet her obligations; but the tension has been tem- porarily relaxed,- and an improvement in the Russo-Ger- man relations has been effected, although this state of things was sufficiently well paid for by the concessions of Germany in North Persia. It is quite obvious that this policy of marking time, which Russia is adopting for the moment, can only be transitory. The requirements of the mighty Empire irre- sistibly compel an expansion towards the sea, whether in the Far East, where it hopes to gain ice-free harbours, or in the direction of the Mediterranean, where the Crescent still glitters on the dome of St. Sophia. After a suc- cessful war, Russia would hardly hesitate to seize the mouth of the Vistula, at the possession of which she has long aimed, and thus to strengthen appreciably her posi- tion in the Baltic. Supremacy in the Balkan Peninsula, free entrance into the Mediterranean, and a strong position on the Baltic, are the goals to which the European policy of Russia has naturally long been directed. She feels herself, also, the leading power of the Slavonic races, and has for many years been busy in encouraging and extending the spread of this element into Central Europe. Pan-Slavism is still hard at work. It is hard to foresee how soon Russia will come out from her retirement and again tread the natural paths of her international policy. Her present political attitude depends considerably on the person of the present Emperor, who believes in the need of leaning upon a strong monarchical WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 93 State, such as Germany is, and also on the character of the internal development of the mighty Empire. The whole body of the nation is so tainted with revolutionary and moral infection, and the peasantry is plunged in such economic disorder, that it is difficult to see from what elements a vivifying force may spring up capable of re- storing a healthy condition. Even the agrarian policy of the present Government has not produced any favourable results, and has so far disappointed expectations. The possibility thus has always existed that, under the stress of internal affairs, the foreign policy may be reversed and an attempt made to surmount the difficulties at home by successes abroad. Time and events will decide whether these successes will be sought in the Far East or in the West. On the one side Japan, and possibly China, must be encountered; on the other, Germany, Austria, and, pos- sibly, Turkey. Doubtless these conditions must exercise a decisive in- fluence on the Franco-Russian Alliance. The interests of the two allies are not identical. While France aims solely at crushing Germany by an aggressive war, Russia from the first has more defensive schemes in view. She wishes to secure herself against any interference by the Powers of Central Europe in the execution of her political plans in the South and East, and at the same time, at the price of an alliance, to raise, on advantageous terms in France, the loans which were so much needed. Russia at present has no inducement to seek an aggressive war with Ger- many or to take part in one. Of course, every further increase of the German power militates against the Russian interests. We shall therefore always find her on the side of those who try to cross our political paths. England has recently associated herself with the Franco- Russian Alliance. She has made an arrangement in Asia with Russia by which the spheres of influence of the two parties are delimited, while with France she has come to terms in the clear intention of suppressing Germany under all circumstances, if necessary by force of arms. The actually existing conflict of Russian and English interests in the heart of Asia can obviously not be termi- 94 GERMANY AND THE NEXT, WAR r nated by such agreements. So, also, no natural community of interests exists between England and France. A strong French fleet may be as great a menace to England as to any other Power. For the present, however, we may reckon on an Anglo-French entente. This union is cemented by the common hostility to Germany. No other reason for the political combination of the two States is forthcoming. There is not even a credible pretext, which might mask the real objects. This policy of England is, on superficial examination, not very comprehensible. Of course, German industries and trade have lately made astounding progress, and the German navy is growing to a strength which commands respect. We are certainly a hindrance to the plans which England is prosecuting in Asiatic Turkey and Central Africa. This may well be distasteful to the English from economic as well as political and military aspects. But, on the other hand, the American competition in the domain of commercial politics is far keener than the German. The American navy is at the present moment stronger than the German, and will henceforth maintain this precedence. Even the French are on the point of building a formidable fleet, and their colonial Empire, so far as territory is con- cerned, IS immensely superior to ours. Yet, in spite of all these considerations, the hostility of the English is pri- marily directed against us. It is necessary to adopt the English standpoint in order to understand the line of thought which guides the English politicians. I believe that the solution of the problem is to be found in the wide ramifications of English interests in every part of the world. Since England committed the unpardonable blunder, from her point of view, of not supporting the Southern States in the American War of Secession, a rival to Eng- land's world-wide Empire has appeared on the other side of the Atlantic in the form of the United States of North America, which are a grave menace to England's fortunes. The keenest competition conceivable now exists between the two countries. The annexation of the Philippines by America, and England's treaty with Japan, have accen- tuated the conflict of interests between the two nations. WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 95 The trade and industries of America can no longer be checked, and the absolutely inexhaustible and ever-growing resources of the Union are so prodigious that a naval war with America, in view of the vast distances and wide extent of the enemies' coasts, would prove a very bold, and certainly very difficult, undertaking. England accord- ingly has always diplomatically conceded the claims of America, as quite recently in the negotiations about forti- fying the Panama Canal; the object clearly is to avoid any collision with the United States, from fearing the con- sequences of such collision. The American competition in trade and industries, and the growth of the American navy, are tolerated as inevitable, and the community of race is borne in mind. In this sense, according to the English point of view, must be understood the treaty by which a Court of Arbitration between the two countries was established. England wishes, in any case, to avert the danger of a war with America. The natural opposition of the two rival States may, however, in the further development of things, be so accentuated that England will be forced to assert her position by arms, or at least to maintain an undisputed naval supremacy, in order to emphasize her diplomatic action. The relations of the two countries to Canada may easily become strained to a dangerous point, and the temporary failure of the Arbitration Treaty casts a strong light on the fact that the American people does not consider that the present political relations of the two nations are permanent. There is another danger which concerns England more closely and directly threatens her vitality. This is due to the nationalist movement in India and Egypt, to the growing power of Islam, to the agitation for independence in the great colonies, as well as to the supremacy of the Low-German element in South Africa. Turkey is the only State which might seriously threaten the English position in Egypt by land. This contingency gives to the national movement in Egypt an importance which it would not otherwise possess; it clearly shows that England intensely fears every Pan-Islamitic move- 96 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ment. She is trying with all the resources of political intrigue to undermine the growing power of Turkey, which she officially pretends to support, and is endeavouring to create in Arabia a new religious centre in opposition to the Caliphate. The same views are partially responsible for the policy in India, where some seventy millions of Moslems live under the English rule. England, so far, in accordance with the principle of divide et impera, has attempted to play off the Mohammedan against the Hindu population. But now that a pronounced revolutionary and nationalist tendency shows itself among these latter, the danger is imminent that Pan-Islamism, thoroughly roused, should unite with the revolutionary elements of Bengal. The co-operation of these elements might create a very grave danger, capable of shaking the foundations of England's high position in the world. While so many dangers, in the future at least, threaten both at home and abroad, English imperialism has failed to link the vast Empire together, either for purposes of commerce or defence, more closely than hitherto. Mr. Chamberlain's dream of the British Imperial Customs Union has definitely been abandoned. No attempt was made at the Imperial Conference in 191 1 to go back to it. "A centrifugal policy predominated. . . . When the question of imperial defence came up, the policy was rejected which wished to assure to Great Britain the help of the oversea dominions in every imaginable eventuality." The great self-ruled colonies represent allies, who will stand by England in the hour of need, but "allies with the reservation that they are not to be employed wrong- fully for objects which they cannot ascertain or do not approve." * There are clear indications that the policy of the dominions, though not yet planning a separation from England, is contemplating the future prospect of doing so. Canada, South Africa, and Australia are developing, as mentioned in Chapter IV., into indepen- dent nations and States, and will, when their time comes, claim formal independence. *Th. Schiemann in the Kreuzzeitung of July 5, 191 1. WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 97 All these circumstances constitute a grave menace to the stabiUty of England's Empire, and these dangers largely influence England's attitude towards Germany. England may have to tolerate the rivalry of North America in her imperial and commercial ambitions, but the competition of Germany must be stopped. If England is forced to fight America, the German fleet must not be in a position to help the Americans. Therefore it must be destroyed. A similar line of thought is suggested by the eventu- ality of a great English colonial war, which would engage England's fleets in far distant parts of the world. England knows the German needs and capabilities of expansion, and may well fear that a German Empire with a strong fleet might use such an opportunity for obtaining that increase of territory which England grudges. We may thus explain the apparent indifference of England to the French schemes of aggrandizement. France's capability of expansion is exhausted from insufficient increase of popu- lation. She can no longer be dangerous to England as a nation, and would soon fall a victim to English lust of Empire, if only Germany were conquered. The wish to get rid of the dangers presumably threaten- ing from the German quarter is all the more real since geographical conditions offer a prospect of crippling the German oversea commerce without any excessive efforts. The comparative weakness of the German fleet, contrasted with the vast superiority of the English navy, allows a correspondingly easy victory to be anticipated, especially if the French fleet co-operates. The possibility, there- fore, of quickly and completely getting rid of one rival, in order to have a free hand for all other contingencies, looms very near, and undoubtedly presents a practicable means of placing the naval power of England on a firm footing for years to come, of annihilating German com- jfnerce, and of checking the importance of German interests in Africa and Northern Asia. The hostility to Germany is also sufficiently evident in other matters. It has always been England's object to maintain a certain balance of power between the con- 98 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR tinental nations of Europe, and to prevent any one of them attaining a pronounced supremacy. While these States crippled and hindered each other from playing any active part on the world's stage, England acquired an opportunity of following out her own purposes undis- turbed, and of founding that world Empire which she now holds. This policy she still continues, for so long as the Powers of Europe tie each other's hands, her own supremacy is uncontested. It follows directly from this that England's aim must be to repress Germany, but strengthen France; for Germany at the present moment is the only European State which threatens to win a com- manding position; but France is her born rival, and can- not keep on level terms with her stronger neighbour on the East, unless she adds to her forces and is helped by her allies. Thus the hostility to Germany, from this aspect also, is based on England's most important interests, and we must treat it as axiomatic and self-evident. The argument is often adduced that England by a war with Germany would chiefly injure herself, since she would lose the German market, which is the best purchaser of her industrial products, and would be deprived of the very considerable German import trade. I fear that from the English point of view these conditions would be an ad- ditional incentive to war. England would hope to acquire, in place of the lost German market, a large part of those markets which had been supplied by Germany before the war, and the want of German imports would be a great stimulus, and to some extent a great benefit, to English industries. After all, it is from the English aspect of the question quite comprehensible that the English Government strains every nerve to check the growing power of Germany, and that a passionate desire prevails in large circles of the English nation to destroy the German fleet which is building, and attack the objectionable neighbour. English policy might, however, strike out a different line, and attempt to come to terms with Germany instead of fighting. This would be the most desirable course for us. A Triple Alliance — Germany, England, and America WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 99 — has been suggested.* But for such a union with Ger- many to be possible, England must have resolved to give a free course to German development side by side with her own, to allow the enlargement of our colonial power, and to offer no political hindrances to our commercial and industrial competition. She must, therefore, have re- nounced her traditional policy, and contemplate an entirely new grouping of the Great Powers in the world. It cannot be assumed that English pride and self-inter- est will consent to that. The continuous agitation against Germany, under the tacit approval of the Government, which is kept up not only by the majority of the Press, but by a strong party in the country, the latest statements of English politicians, the military preparations in the North Sea, and the feverish acceleration of naval con- struction, are unmistakable indications that England in- tends to persist in her anti-German policy. The uncom- promising hostility of England and her efforts to hinder every expansion of Germany's power were openly shown in the very recent Morocco question. Those who think themselves capable of impressing on the world the stamp of their spirit, do not resign the headship without a struggle, when they think victory is in their grasp. A pacific agreement with England is, after all, a will- o'-the-wisp which no serious German statesman would trouble to follow. We must always keep the possibility of war with England before our eyes, and arrange our political and military plans accordingly. We need not con- cern ourselves with any pacific protestations of English politicians, publicists, and Utopians, which, prompted by the exigencies of the moment, cannot alter the real basis of affairs. When the Unionists, with their greater fixity of pur- pose, replace the Liberals at the helm, we must be prepared for a vigorous assertion of power by the island Empire. On the other hand, America, which indisputably plays a decisive part in English policy, is a land of limitless possibilities. While, on the one side, she insists on the Monroe doctrine, on the other she stretches out her own *"The United States and the War Qoud in Europe," by Th.y^ Schiemann, McClure's Magazine, June, 1910. loo GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR arms towards Asia and Africa, in order to find bases for her fleets. The United States aim at the economic and, where possible, the political command of the American continent, and at the naval supremacy in the Pacific. Their interests, both economic and political, notwithstand- ing all commercial and other treaties, clash emphatically with those of Japan and England. No arbitration treaties could alter this. No similar opposition to Germany, based on the nature of things, has at present arisen from the ambitions of the two nations; certainly not in the sphere of politics. So far as can be seen, an understanding with Germany ought to further the interests of America. It is unlikely that the Americans would welcome any considerable addition to the power of England. But such would be the case if Great Britain succeeded in inflicting a political and mili- tary defeat on Germany. For a time it seemed as if the Anglo-American negotia- tions about Arbitration Courts would definitely end in an alliance against Germany. There has, at any rate, been a great and widespread agitation against us in the United States. The Americans of German and Irish stock reso- lutely opposed it, and it is reasonable to assume that the anti-German movement in the United States was a passing phase, with no real foundation in the nature of things. In the field of commerce there is, no doubt, keen competition between the two countries, especially in South America; there is, however, no reason to assume that this will lead to political complications. Japan has, for the time being, a direct political interest for us only in her influence on the affairs of Russia, America, England, and China. In the Far East, since Japan has formed an alliance with England, and seems recently to have effected an arrangement with Russia, we have to count more on Japanese hostility than Japa- nese friendship. Her attitude to China may prove ex- ceptionally important to our colonial possessions in East Asia. If the two nations joined hands — a hardly probable eventuality at present — it would become difficult for us to maintain an independent position between them. The WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL loi political rivalry between the two nations of yellow race must therefore be kept alive. If they are antagonistic, they will both probably look for help against each other in their relations with Europe, and thus enable the European Powers to retain their possessions in Asia. While the aspiring Great Powers of the Far East can- not at present directly influence our policy, Turkey — the predominant Power of the Near East — is of paramount importance to us. She is our natural ally; it is emphati- cally our interest to keep in close touch with her. The wisest course would have been to have made her earlier a member of the Triple Alliance, and so to have pre- vented the Turco-Italian War, which threatens to change the whole political situation, to our disadvantage. Turkey would gain in two ways: she assures her position both against Russia and against England — the two States, that is, with whose hostility we have to reckon. Turkey, also, is the only Power which can threaten England's position in Egypt, and thus menace the short sea-route and the land communications to India. We ought to spare no sacrifices to secure this country as an ally for the eventu- ality of a war with England or Russia. Turkey's inter- ests are ours. It is also to the obvious advantage of Italy that Turkey maintain her commanding position on the Bosphorus and at the Dardanelles, that this important key should not be transferred to the keeping of foreigners, and belong to Russia or England. If Russia gained the access to the Mediterranean, to which she has so long aspired, she would soon become a prominent Power in its eastern basin, and thus greatly damage the Italian projects in those waters. Since the English interests, also, would be prejudiced by such a de- velopment, the English fleet in the Mediterranean would certainly be strengthened. Between England, France, and Russia it would be quite impossible for Italy to attain an independent or commanding position, while the opposi- tion of Russia and Turkey leaves the field open to her. From this view of the question, therefore, it is advisable- to end the Turco-ItaUan conflict, and to try and satisfy the justifiable wishes of Italy at the cost of Fsajaee, after- the next war, it may be. I02 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Spain alone of the remaining European Powers has any independent importance. She has developed a certain antagonism to France by her Morocco policy, and may, therefore, become eventually a factor in German pohcy. The petty States, on ' the contrary, form no independent centres of gravity, but may, in event of war, prove to possess a by no means negligible importance: the small Balkan States for Austria and Turkey; Denmark, Hol- land, Belgium, and Switzerland, and eventually Sweden, for Germany. Switzerland and Belgium ceunt as neutral. The former was declared neutral at the Congress of Vienna on Novem- ber 20, 181 5, under the collective guarantee* of the signatory Powers; Belgium, in the Treaties of London of November 15, 1831, and of April 19, 1839, on the part of the five Great Powers, the Netherlands, and Belgium itself. If we look at these conditions as a whole, it appears that on the continent of Europe the power of the Central European Triple Alliance and that of the States united against it by alliance and agreement balance each other, provided that Italy belongs to the league. If we take into calculation the imponderabilia, whose weight can only be guessed at, the scale is inclined slightly in favour of the Triple Alliance. On the other hand, England indisputably rules the sea. In consequence of her crush- ing naval superiority when allied with France, and of the geographical conditions, she may cause the greatest damage to Germany by cutting off her maritime trade. There is also a not inconsiderable army available for a continental war. When all considerations are taken into account, our opponents have a political superiority not to be underestimated. If France succeeds in strengthen- ing her army by large colonial levies and a strong English landing-force, this superiority would be asserted on land also. If Italy really withdraws from the Triple Alliance, very distinctly superior forces will be united against Ger- many and Austria. *By a collective guarantee is understood the duty of the con- tracting Powers to take steps to protect this neutrality when all agree that it is menaced. Each individual Power has the right to interfere if it considers the neutrality menaced. WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 103 Under these conditions the position of Germany is ex- traordinarily difficult. ' We not only require for the full material development of our nation, on a scale corre- sponding to its intellectual importance, an extended po- litical basis, but, as explained in the previous chapter, we are compelled to obtain space for our increasing popu- lation and markets for our growing industries. But at every step which we take in this direction England will resolutely oppose us. English policy may not yet have made the definite decision to attack us; but it doubtless wishes, by all and every means, even the most extreme, to hinder every further expansion of German international influence and of German maritime power. The recognized political aims of England and the attitude of the English Government leave no doubt on this point. But if we were involved in a struggle with England, we can be quite sure that France would not neglect the opportunity of attacking our flank. Italy, with her extensive coast-line, even if still a member of the Triple Alliance, will have to devote large forces to the defence of the coast to keep off the attacks of the Anglo-French Mediterranean Fleet, and would thus be only able to employ weaker forces against France. Austria would be paralyzed by Russia; against the latter we should have to leave forces in the East. We shou ld thus have to fight out the struggle against' ±^ ;anc£^aj ul_£^|^l^l-t^^ Jj r aUi Lally a lone ■' wiL l fy_p aft of our ar mv, p"eiTiiaps yn\]} gnmp gnppnrt f''""^ 7'^^^^ "^~ is ^Jn^. this double menace by sea and on the mamland^jof " Europe "mS^t^e^granrrnteBg ef "To., our poliiicairjDflilfion lies, sinc e all treedom of action is taken from us and all expa£sion~Barr^." ——.„-— ""gmce tTie^s^uggleJs^s appears on a thorough 'p'"''^''^'- gation o f tEe"internati Qnal...-&aestieHi-~necessar.Y_ and-Jn.- evitable, w e must fighL .it ■oat^.cost what..it,^.ay- Indeed, we are carrying it on at the present moment, though not with drawn swords, and only by peaceful means so far. On the one hand it is being waged by the competition in trade, industries and warlike preparations; on the other hand, by diplomatic methods with which the rival States are fighting each other in every region where their inter- ests clash. 104 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR With these methods it has been possible to maintain peace hitherto, but not without considerable loss of power and prestige. This apparently peaceful state of things must not deceive us ; we are facing a hidden, but none the less formidable, crisis — perhaps the most momentous crisis in the history of the German nation. We have fought in the last great wars for our national union and our position among the Powers of Europe; we I now must decide whether we wish to develop into and maintain a World Empire, and procure for German spirit and German ideas that fit recognition which has been hither- to withheld from them. Have we the energy to aspire to that great goal? Are we prepared to make the sacrifices which such an effort will doubtless cost us? or are we willing to recoil before the hostile forces, and sink step by step lower in our economic, political, and national importance? That is what is involved in our decision. "To be, or not to be," is the question which is put to us to-day, disguised, indeed, by the apparent equilibrium of the opposing interests and forces, by the deceitful shifts ' of diplomacy, and the official peace-aspirations of all the States; but by the logic of history inexorably demand- ing an answer, if we look with clear gaze beyond the nar- row horizon of the day and the mere surface of things into the region of realities. There is no standing still in the world's history. All is growth and development. It is obviously impossible to keep things in the status quo, as diplomacy has so often attempted. No true statesman will ever seriously count on such a possibility; he will only make the outward andV temporary maintenance of existing conditions a duty when he wishes to gain time and deceive an opponent, or when he cannot see what is the trend of events. He will use such diplomatic means only as inferior tools ; in reality he will only reckon with actual forces and with the powers of a continuous development. We must make it quite clear to ourselves that there can be no standing still', no being satisfied for us, but only progress or retrogression, and that it is tantamount WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 105 to retrogression when we are contented with our present place among the nations of Europe, while all our rivals are straining with desperate energy, even at the cost of our rights, to extend their power. The process of our decay would set in gradually and advance slowly so long as the struggle against us was waged with peaceful weapons ; the living generation would, perhaps, be able to continue to exist in peace and comfort. But should a war be forced upon us by stronger enemies under conditions unfavour- able to us, then, if our arms met with disaster, our political downfall would not be delayed, and we should rapidly sink down. The future of German nationality would be sacrificed, an independent German civilization would not long exist, and the blessings for which German blood has flowed in streams — spiritual and moral liberty, and the profound and lofty aspirations of German thought — would for long ages be lost to mankind. If, as is right, we do not wish to assume the responsi- bility for such a catastrophe, we must have the courage to strive with every means to attain that increase of power which we are entitled to claim, even at the risk of a war with numerically superior foes. Under present conditions it is out of the question to attempt this by acquiring territory in Europe. The region in the East, where German colonists once settled, is lost to us, and could only be recovered from Russia by a long and victorious war, and would then be a perpetual incite- ment to renewed wars. So, again, the reannexation of the former South Prussia, which was united to Prussia on the second partition of Poland, would be a serious under- taking, on account of the Polish population. Under these circumstances we must clearly try to strengthen our political power in other ways. In the first place, our political position would be con- siderably consolidated if we could finally get rid of the standing danger that France will attack us on a favour- able occasion, so soon as we find ourselves involved in complications elsewhere. Tnnne_way or .;;i,nflthe.r gi^f Mf,My< square our a^count^wUh^Frm^^ '^^^~iti"'tsaS''''^^^^^^L.^^fr''~T^s is the first and io6 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR foremost condition of a sound German policy, and since the hostility of France once for all cannot be removed by peaceful overtures, the matter must be settled by force of arms. France must be sQ„mmpletely crushed thatshgu£an never again Come across our path. '" ''TirtftrwriKHrSlffiT^rev^^ means of strengthening the political power of our allies. We have already followed such a policy in the case of Austria when we declared our readiness to protect, if necessary with armed inter- vention, the final annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by our ally on the Danube. Our policy towards Italy must follow the same lines, especially if in any Franco-German war an opportunity should be presented of doing her a really valuable service. It is equally good policy in every way to support Turkey, whose importance for Germany and the Triple Alliance has already been discussed. C3ur political duties, therefore, are complicated, and dur- ing the Turco-Italian War all that we can do at first is to use our influence as mediators, and to prevent a trans- ference of hostilities to the Balkan Peninsula. It cannot be decided at this moment whether further intervention will be necessary. Finally, as regards our own position in Europe, we can only effect an extension of our own political influence, in my opinion, by awakening in our weaker neighbours, through the integrity and firmness of our policy, the conviction that their independence and their interests are bound up with Germany, and are best secured under the protection of the German arms. This conviction might eventually lead to an enlargement of the Triple Al- liance into a Central European Federation. Our military strength in Central Europe would by this means be con- siderably increased, and the extraordinarily unfavourable geographical configuration of our dominions would be essentially improved in case of war. Such a federatioh would be the expression of a natural community of inter- ests, which is founded on the geographical and natural conditions, and would insure the durability of the political community based on it. We must employ other means also for the widening of our colonial territory, so that it may be able to receive WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 107 the overflow of our population. Very recent events have shown that, under certain circumstances, it is possible to obtain districts in Equatorial Africa by pacific negotia- tions. A financial or political crash in Portugal might give us the opportunity to take possession of a portion of the Portuguese colonies. We may assume that some understanding exists between England and Germany which contemplates a division of the Portuguese colonial pos- sessions, but has never become publici juris. It cannot, indeed, be certain that England, if the contingency arrives, would be prepared honestly to carry out such a treaty, if it actually exists. She might finds ways and means to invalidate it. It has even been often said, although disputed in other quarters, that Great Britain, after com- ing to an agreement with Germany about the partition of the Portuguese colonies, had, by a special conven- tion, guaranteed Portugal the possession of all her colo- nies. Other possible schemes may be imagined, by which some extension of our African territory would be possible. These need not be discussed here more particularly. If neces- sary, they must be obtained as the result of a successful European war. In all these possible acquisitions of terri- tory the point must be strictly borne in mind that we re- quire countries which are climatically suited to German settlers. Now, there are even in Central Africa large regions which are adapted to the settlement of German farmers and stock-breeders, and part of our overflow popu- lation might be diverted to those parts. But, generally speaking, we can only obtain in tropical colonies markets for our industrial products and wide stretches of cultivated ground for the growth of the raw materials which our in- dustries require. This represents in itself a considerable advantage, but does not release us from the obligation to acquire land for actual colonization. A part of our surplus population, indeed — so far as present conditions point — will always be driven to seek a livelihood outside the borders of the German Empire. Measures must be taken to the extent at least of pro- viding that the German element is not split up in the io8 GERMANY Af^D THE NEXT WAR world, but remains united in compact blocks, and thus forms, even in foreign countries, political centres of gravity in our favour, markets for our exports, and centres for the diffusion of German culture. An intensive colonial policy is for us especially an absolute necessity. It has often been asserted that a "policy of the open door" can replace the want of colo- nies of our own, and must constitute our programme for the future, just because we do not possess sufficient colonies. This notion is only justified in a certain sense. In the first place, such a policy does not offer the possi- bility of finding homes for the overflow population in a territory of our own; next, it does not guarantee the cer- tainty of an open and unrestricted trade competition. It secures to all trading nations equal tariffs, but this does not imply by any means competition under equal con- ditions. On the contrary, the political power which is exercised in such a country is the determining factor in the economic relations. The principle of the open door prevails everywhere — in Egypt, Manchuria, in the Congo State, in Morocco — and everywhere the politically domi- nant Power controls the commerce: in Manchuria Japan, in Egypt England, in the Congo State Belgium, and in Morocco France. The reason is plain. All State con- cessions fall naturally to that State which is practically dominant; its products are bought by all the consumers who are any way dependent on the power of the State, quite apart from the fact that by reduced tariffs and similar advantages for the favoured wares the concession of the open door can be evaded in various ways. A "policy of the open door" must at best be regarded as a makeshift, and as a complement of a vigorous colonial policy. The essential point is for a country to have colonies of its own and a predominant poHtical influence in the spheres where its markets lie. Our German world policy must be guided by these considerations. The execution of such political schemes would certainly clash with many old-fashioned notions and vested rights of the traditional European policy. In the first place, the principle of the balance of power in Europe, which has, WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 109 since the Congress of Vienna, led an almost sacrosanct but entirely unjustifiable existence, must be entirely dis- regarded. The idea of a balance of power was gradually developed from the feeling that States do not exist to thwart each other, but to work together for the advancement of culture. Christianity, which leads man beyond the limits of the State to a world citizenship of the noblest kind, and lays the foundation of all international law, has exercised a wide influence in this respect. Practical interests, too, have strengthened the theory of balance of power. When it was understood that the State was a power, and that, by its nature, it must strive to extend that power, a certain guarantee of peace was supposed to exist in the balance of forces. The conviction was thus gradually established that every State had a close community of interests with the other States, with which it entered into political and economic relations, and was bound to establish some sort of understanding with them. Thus the idea grew up in Europe of a State-system, which was formed after the fall of Napoleon by the five Great Powers — England, France, Russia, Austria, and Prussia, which latter had gained a place in the first rank by force of arms; in 1866 Italy joined it as the sixth Great Power. "Such a system cannot be supported with an approxi- mate equilibrium among the nations." "All theory must rest on the basis of practice, and a real equilibrium — i.e., an actual equality of power — is postulated." * This condition does not exist between the European nations. England by herself rules the sea, and the 65,000,000 of Germans cannot allow themselves to sink to the same level of power as the 40,000,000 of French. An attempt has been made to produce a real equilibrium by special alliances. One result only has been obtained — the hin- drance of the free development of the nations in general, and of Germany in particular. This is an unsound con- dition. A European balance of power can no longer be termed a condition which corresponds to the existing state of things; it can only have the disastrous con- * Treitschke. no GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR sequences of rendering the forces of the continental Euro- pean States mutually ineffective, and of thus favouring the plans of the political powers which stand outside that charmed circle. It has always been England's policy to stir up enmity between the respective continental States, and to keep them at approximately the same standard of power, in order herself undisturbed to conquer at once the sovereignty of the seas and the sovereignty of the world. We must put aside all such notions of equilibrium. In its present distorted form it is opposed to our weightiest interests. The idea of a State system which has common interests in civilization must not, of course, be abandoned; but it must be expanded on a new and more just basis. It is now not a question of a European State system, but of one embracing all the States in the world, in which the equilibrium is established on real factors of power. We must endeavour to obtain in this system our merited position at the head of a federation of Central European States, and thus reduce the imaginary European equilibrium, in one way or the other, to its true value, and correspond- ingly to increase our own power. A further question, suggested by the present political position, is whether all the political treaties which were concluded at the beginning of the last century under quite other conditions — in fact, under a different conception of what constitutes a State — can, or ought to be, perma- nently observed. When Belgium was proclaimed neutral, no one contemplated that she would lay claim to a large and valuable region of Africa. It may well be asked whether the acquisition of such territory is not ipso facto a breach of neutrality, for a State from which — theoreti- cally at least — all danger of war has been removed, has no right to enter into political competition with the other States. This argument is the nior e justifiable because it may safely be assumed that, i n" event~~oF~X'war'~5f Germany agamst f ranee an9 "EnglaBd, thyTvro^aS^^n^ tioned States would 'try' to, u mt etfe^^ Lastly, thTnetJhralityofAe Congo Stafe"*"must be termed *The Congo State was proclaimed neutral, but without guar- antees, by Acts of February 26, 1885. WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL iii more than problematic, since Belgium claims the right to cede or sell it to a non-neutral country. The concep- tion of permanent neutrality is entirely contrary to the essential nature of the State, which can only attain its highest moral aims in competition with other States. Its complete development presupposes such competition. Again, the principle that no State can ever interfere in the internal affairs of another State is repugnant to the highest rights of the State. This principle is, of course, very variously interpreted, and powerful States have never refrained from a high-handed interference in the internal affairs of smaller ones. We daily witness instances of such conduct. Indeed, England quite lately attempted to interfere in the private affairs of Germany, not formally or by diplomatic methods, but none the less in point of fact, on the subject of our naval preparations. It is, however, accepted as a principle of international intercourse that between the States of one and the same political system a strict non-interference in home affairs should be observed. The unqualified recognition of this principle and its appli- cation to political intercourse under all conditions involves serious difificulties. It is the doctrine of the Liberals, which was first preached in France in 1830, and of which the English Ministry of Lord Palmerston availed them- selves for their own purposes. Equally false is the doctrine of unrestricted intervention, as promulgated by the States of the Holy Alliance at Troppau in 1820. No fixed princi- ples for international politics can be laid down. After all, the relation of States to each other is that of individuals; and as the individual can decline the inter- ference of others in his affairs, so, naturally, the same right belongs to the State. Above the individual, how- ever, stands the authority of the State, which regulates the relations of the citizens to each other. But no one stands above the State; it is sovereign, and must itself decide whether the internal conditions or measures of another State menace its own existence or interests. In no case, therefore, may a sovereign State renounce the right of interfering in the affairs of other States, should circumstances demand. Cases may occur at any time. 112 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR when the party disputes or the preparations of the neigh- bouring country become a threat to the existence of a State. "It can only be asserted that every State acts at its own risk when it interferes in the internal affairs of another State, and that experience shows how very danger- ous such an interference may become." On the other hand, it must be remembered that the dangers which may arise from non-intervention are occasionally still graver, and that the whole discussion turns, not on an international right, but simply and solely on power and expediency. I have gone closely into these questions of international policy because, under conditions which are not remote, they may greaitly influence the realization of our necessary political aspirations, and may give rise to hostile compli- cations. Then it becomes essential that we do not allow ourselves to be cramped in our freedom of action by con- siderations, devoid of any inherent political necessity, which only depend on political expediency, and are not binding on us. We must remain conscious in all sucheventuali- ties that we .cannot, un der any c! jr£um stan^ces,^aTOidfig ingforourposition m the world, and. thatthe^ll-un pytSi lt poihT isrnfflrW''posFp"on'e' that war..as long as possible, but to bring' it on under_ the" most favouraEk~conc [itrons pos~ sible. "No man," so wrote F?ederi^TKe"'Great to Pitt on July 3, 1761, "if he has a grain of sense, will leave his enemies leisure to make all preparations in order to destroy him; he will rather take advantage of his start to put himself in a favourable position." If we wish to act in this spirit of prompt and effective policy which guided the great heroes of our past, we must learn to concentrate our forces, and not to dissipate them in centrifugal efforts. The political and national development of the German people has always, so far back as German history extends, been hampered and hindered by the hereditary defects of its character — that is, by the particularism of the individual 'races and States, the theoretic dogmatism of the parties, the incapacity to sacrifice personal interests for great na- tional objects from want of patriotism and of political common sense, often, also, by the pettiness of the prevail- WORLD POWER OR DOWNFALL 113 ing ideas. Even to-day it is painful to see how the forces of the German nation, which are so restricted and confined in their activities abroad, are wasted in fruitless quarrels among themselves. Our primary and most obvious moral and political duty is to overcome these hereditary failings, and to lay a secure foundation for a healthy, consistent development of our power. It must not be denied that the variety of forms of intel- lectual and social life arising from the like variety of the German nationality and political system offers valuable advantages. It presents countless centres for the advance- ment of science, art, technical skill, and a high spiritual and material way of life in a steadily increasing develop- ment. But we must resist the converse of these con- ditions, the transference of this richness in variety and contrasts into the domain of politics. Above all must we endeavour to confirm and consoli- date the institutions which are calculated to counteract and concentrate the centrifugal forces of the German na- tion — the common system of defence of our country by land and sea, in which all party feeling is merged, and a strong national empire. No people is so little qualified as the German to direct its own destinies, whether in a parliamentarian or republican constitution; to no people is the customary liberal pattern so inappropriate as to us. A glance at the Reichstag will show how completely this conviction, which is forced on us by a study of German history, holds good to-day. The German people has always been incapable of great acts for the common interest except under the irresistible pressure of external conditions, as in the rising of 1813, or under the leadership of powerful personalities, who knew how to arouse the enthusiasm of the masses, to stir ,the German spirit to its depths, to vivify the idea of na- tionality, and force conflicting aspirations into concentration and union. We must therefore take care that such men are assured the possibility of acting with a confident and free hand in order to accomplish great ends through and for our people. 114 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Within these limits, it is in harmony with the national German character to allow personality to have a free course for the fullest development of all individual forces and capacities, of all spiritual, scientific, and artistic aims. "Every extension of the activities of the State is bene- ficial and wise, if it arouses, promotes, and purifies the independence of free and reasoning men; it is evil when it kills and stunts the independence of free men." * This independence of the individual, within the limits marked out by the interests of the State, forms the necessary com- plement of the wide expansion of the central power, and assures an ample scope to a liberal development of all our social conditions. We must rouse in our people the unanimous wish for power in this sense, together with the determination to sacrifice on the altar of patriotism, not only life and prop- erty, but also private views and preferences in the inter- ests of the common welfare. Then alone shall we discharge our great duties of the future, grow into a World Power, and stamp a great part of humanity with the impress of the German spirit. If, on the contrary, we persist in that dissipation of energy which now marks our political life, there is imminent fear that in the great contest of the nations, which we must inevitably face, we shall be dishon- ourably beaten ; that days of disaster await us in the future, and that once again, as in the days of our former degrada- tion, the poet's lament will be heard: "O Germany, thy oaks still stand, But thou art fallen, glorious land!" KORNER. * Treitschke, "Politik," i.j § 2. CHAPTER VI THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING FOR WAR Germany has great national and historical duties of policy and culture to fulfil, and her path towards further progress is threatened by formidable enmities. If we realize this, we shall see that it will be impossible to maintain our present position and secure our future without an appeal to arms. Knowing this, as every man must who impartially con- siders the political situation, we are called upon to prepare ourselves as well as possible for this war. The times are passed when a stamp of the foot raised an army, or when it was sufficient to levy the masses and lead them to battle. The armaments of the present day must be prepared in peace-time down to the smallest detail, if they are to be effective in time of need. Although this fact is known, the sacrifices which are required for warlike preparations are no longer so willingly made as the gravity of the situation demands. Every military proposal is bitterly contested in the Reichstag, frequently in a very petty spirit, and no one seems to understand that an unsuccessful war would involve our nation in economic misery, with which the most burden- some charges for the army (and these for the most part come back again into the coffers of the country) cannot for an instant be compared. A victorious war, on the other hand, brings countless advantages to the conqueror, and, as our last great wars showed, forms a new departure in economic progress. The fact is often forgotten that mili- tary service and the observance of the national duty of bearing arms are in themselves a high moral gain for our "S ii6 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR people, and improve the strength and capacity for work. Nor can it be ignored that a nation has other than merely ' economic duties to discharge. I propose to discuss the question, what kind and degree of preparation for ^yar the great historical crisis through which we are passing demands from us. First, however, it will be profitable to consider the importance of preparations for war generally, and not so much from the purely military as from the social and political aspect; we shall thus strengthen the con- viction that we cannot serve the true interests of the coun- try better than by improving its military capabilities. Preparation for war has a double task to discharge. Firstly, it must maintain and raise the military capabihties of the nation as a national asset; and, secondly, it must make arrangements for the conduct of the war and supply the requisite means. This capability of national defence has a pronounced educative value in national development. As in the social competition the persons able to protect themselves hold the field — the persons, that is, who, well equipped intellectually, do not shirk the contest, but fight it out with confidence and certainty of victory — so in the rivalry of nations and States victory rests with the people able to defend itself, which boldly enters the lists, and is capable of wielding the sword with success. Military service not only educates nations in warlike capacity, but it develops the intellectual and moral quali- ties generally for the occupations of peace. It educates a man to the full mastery of his body, to the exercise and improvement of his muscles ; it develops his mental powers, his self-reliance and readiness of decision; it accustoms him to order and subordination for a common end; it ele- vates his self-respect and courage, and thus his capacity for every kind of work. It is a quite perverted view that the time devoted to military service deprives economic life of forces which could have been more appropriately and more profitably employed elsewhere. These forces are not withdrawn from economic life, but are trained for economic life. Military training produces intellectual and moral forces THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 117 which richly repay the time -spent, and have their real value in subsequent life. It is therefore the moral duty of the State to train as many of its countrymen as possible in the use of arms, not only with the prospect of war, but that they may share in the benefits of military service and improve their physical and moral capacities of defence. The sums which the State applies to the military training of the nation are distinctly an outlay for social purposes; the money so spent serves social and educative ends, and raises the nation spiritually and morally; it thus promotes the highest aims of civilization more directly than achieve- ments of mechanics, industries, trades, and commerce, which certainly discharge the material duties of culture by improving the national livelihood and increasing national wealth, but bring with them a number of dangers, such as craving for pleasure and tendency to luxury, thus slacken- ing the moral and productive fibres of the nations. Mili- tary service as an educational instrument stands on the same level as the school, and, as will be shown in a later section, each must complete and assist the other. But a people which does not willingly bear the duties and sacrifices entailed by school and military service renounces its will to live, and sacrifices objects which are noble and assure the future for the sake of material advantages which are one-sided and evanescent. It is the duty, therefore, of every State, conscious of its obligations towards civilization and society, remorselessly to put an end to all tendencies inimical to the full develop- ment of the power of defence. The method by which the* maintenance and promotion of this defensive power can be practically carried out admits of great variety. It depends largely on the conditions of national life, on the geographical and political circumstances, as well as on past history, and consequently ranges between very wide extremes. In the Boer States, as among most uncivilized peoples, the military training was almost exclusively left to the individual. That was sufficient to a certain point, since their method of life in itself made them familiar with carrying arms and with riding, and inured them to hard bodily exertions. The higher requirements of combina- ii8 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR tion, subordination, and campaigning, could not be met by such a military system, and the consequences of this were felt disastrously in the conduct of the war. In Switzerland and other States an attempt is made to secure national defence by a system of militia, and to take ac- count of political possibilities. The great European States maintain standing armies in which all able-bodied citizens have to pass a longer or shorter period of military train- ing. England alone keeps up a mercenary army, and by the side of it a territorial army, whose ranks are filled by volunteers. In these various ways different degrees of military ef- ficiency are obtained, but, generally, experience shows that the more thorough and intelUgent this training in arms, the greater the development of the, requisite military qualities in the units ; and the more these qualities become a second nature, the more complete will be their warlike efficiency. When criticizing the different military systems, we must remember that with growing civilization the requisite mili- tary capacities are always changing. The duties expected from the Roman legionary or the soldiers who fought in line under Frederick the Great were quite different from those of the rifleman and cavalryman of to-day. Not merely have the physical functions of military service altered, but the moral qualities expected from the fighting man are altered. This applies to the individual soldier as much as to the whole army. The character of warfare has continually been changing. To fight in the Middle Ages or in the eighteenth century with comparatively small forces was one thing; it is quite another to handle the colossal armies of to-day. The preparations for war, therefore, in the social as well as military sense, must be quite different in a highly developed modern civilized State from those in countries, standing on a lower level of civili- zation, where ordinary life is full of military elements, and war is fought under relatively simple conditions. The crushing superiority of civilized States over people with a less developed civilization and military system is due to this altered form of military efficiency. It was thus THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 119 that Japan succeeded in raising herself in a brief space to the supremacy in Eastern Asia. She now reaps in the advancement of her culture what she sowed on the battle- field, and proves once again the immeasurable importance, in its social and educational aspects, of military efSciency. Our own country, by employing its military powers, has attained a degree of culture which it never could have reached by the niethods of peaceful development. When we regard the change in the nature of military efficiency, we find ourselves on ground where the social duty of maintaining the physical and moral power of the nation to defend itself comes into direct contact with the political duty of preparing for warfare itself. A great variety of procedure is possible, and actually exists, in regard to the immediate preparations for war. This is primarily expressed in the choice of the military system, but it is manifested in various other ways. We see the individual States — according to their geographical position, their relations to other States and the military strength of their neighbours, according to their historic claims and their greater or less importance in the political system of the world — making their military preparations with more or less energy, earnestness, and expenditure. When we consider the complex movements of the life of civilized nations, the variety of its aims and the multi- plicity of its emotions, we must agi'ee that the growth or decrease of armaments is everywhere affected by these considerations. War is only a means of attaining political ends and of supporting moral strength. Thus, if England attaches most weight to her navy, her insular position and the wide oversea interests which she must protect thoroughly justify her policy. If, on the other hand, England develops her land forces only with the objects of safeguarding the command of her colonies, repelling a very improbable hostile invasion, and helping an allied Power in a continental war, the general political situation explains the reason. As a matter of fact, England can never be involved in a great continental European war against her will. So Switzerland, which has been declared neutral by I20 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR political treaties, and can therefore only take the field if she is attacked, rightly lays most stress on the social im- portance of military service, and tries to develop a scheme of defence which consists mainly in increasing the security afforded by her own mountains. The United States of America, again, are justified in keeping their land forces within very modest limits, while devoting their energies to the increase of their naval power. No enemy equal to them in strength can ever spring up on the continent of America; they need not fear the invasion of any consider- able forces. On the other hand, they are threatened by oversea conflicts, of epoch-making importance, with the yel- low race, which has acquired formidable strength opposite their western coast, and possibly with their great trade rival England, whidi has, indeed, often made concessions, but may eventualUy see herself compelled to fight for her position in the world. While in some States a restriction of armaments is natural and justifiable, it is easily understood that France must strain every nerve to secure her full recognition among the great military nations of Europe. Her glorious past history has fostered in her great political pretensions which she will not abandon without a struggle, although they are no longer justified by the size of her population and her international importance. France affords a con- spicuous example of self-devotion to ideals and of a noble conception of political and moral duties. In the other European States, as in France, external poli- tical conditions and claims, in combination with internal politics, regulate the method and extent of warlike prep- arations, and their attitude, which necessity forces upon them, must be admitted to carry its own justification. A State may represent a compact unity, from the point of view of nationality and civilization; it may have great duties to discharge in the development of human culture, and may possess the national strength to safeguard its in- dependence, to protect its own interests, and, under certain circumstances, to persist in its civilizing mission and poli- tical schemes in defiance of other nations. Another State may be deficient in the conditions of individual national life THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 121 and in elements of culture ; it may lack the resources neces- sary for the defence and maintenance of its political exist- ence single-handed in the teeth of all opposition. There is a vast difference between these two cases. A State like the latter is always more or less dependent on the friendliness of stronger neighbours, whether it ranks in public law as fully independent or has been pro- claimed neutral by international conventions. If it is attacked on one side, it must count on support from the other. Whether it shall continue to exist as a State and under what Conditions must depend on the result of the ensuing war and the consequent political position — factors that lie wholly outside its own sphere of power. This being the case, the question may well be put whether such a State is politically justified in requiring from its citizens in time of peace the greatest military efforts and correspondingly large pecuniary expenditure. It will certainly have to share the contest in which it is itself, perhaps, the prize, and theoretically will do best to have the largest possible military force at its disposal. But there is another aspect of the question . which is at least arguable. The fighting power of such a State may be so small that it counts for nothing in comparison with the millions of a modern army. On the other hand, where appreciable military strength exists, it may be best not to organize the army with a view to decisive campaigning, but to put the social objects of military preparation into the foreground, and to adopt in actual warfare a defensive policy calculated to gain time, with a view to the subse- quent interference of the prospective allies with whom the ultimate decision will rest. Such an army must, if it is to attain its object, represent a real factor of strength. It must give the probable allies that effective addition of strength which may insure a superiority over the antago- nist. The ally must then be forced to consider the interests of such secondary State. The forces of the possible allies will thus exercise a certain influence on the armament of the State, in combination with the local conditions, the geographical position, and the natural configuration of the country. 122 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR It is only to be expected that, since such various con- ditions exist, the utmost variety should also prevail among the military systems ; and such is, in fact, the case. _ In the mountain stronghold of Switzerland, which has to reckon with the political and military circumstances of Germany, France, and Italy, preparations for war take a different shape from those of Holland, situated on the coast and secured by numerous waterways, whose political independence is chiefly affected by the land forces of Ger- many and the navy of England. The conditions are quite otherwise for a country which relies wholly on its own power. The power of the probable antagonists and of the pre- sumable allies will have a certain importance for it, and its Government will in its plans and military preparations pay attention to their grouping and attitudes; but these prep- arations must never be motived by such considerations alone. The necessity for a strong military force is per- manent and unqualified ; the political permutations and com- binations are endless, and the assistance of possible allies is always an uncertain and shifting factor, on which no re- liance can be reposed. The military power of an independent State in the true sense must guarantee the maintenance of a force sufficient to protect the interests of a great civilized nation and to secure to it the necessary freedom of development. If from the social standpoint no sacrifice can be considered too great which promotes the maintenance of national mili- tary efficiency, the increase in these sacrifices due to poli- tical conditions must be willingly and cheerfully borne, in consideration of the object thereby to be gained. This ob- ject — of which each individual must be conscious — if con- ceived in the true spirit of statesmanship, comprises the conditions which are decisive for the political and moral future of the State as well as for the livelihood of each individual citizen. A civilization which has a value of its own, and thus forms a vital factor in the development of mankind, can only flourish where all the healthy and stimulating capaci- ties of a nation find ample scope in international compe- THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 123 tition. This is also an essential condition for the unhindered and vigorous exercise of individual activities. Where the natural capacity for growth is permanently checked by ex- ternal circumstances, nation and State are stunted and indi- vidual growth is set back. Increasing political power and the consequent multi- plication of possibilities of action constitute the only healthy soil for the intellectual and moral strength of a vigorous nation, as is shown by every phase of history. The wish for culture must therefore in a healthy nation express itself first in terms of the wish for political power, and the foremost duty of statesmanship is to attain, safe- guard, and promote this power, by force of arms in the last resort. Thus the first and most essential duty of every great civilized people is to prepare for war on a scale commensurate with its political needs. Even the supe- riority of the enemy cannot absolve from the perform- ance of this requirement. On the contrary, it must stimu- late to the utmost military efforts and the most strenu- ous political action in order to secure favourable con- ditions for the eventuality of a decisive campaign. Mere numbers count jfgE„igss_than__ever in modern fighting, al- '^Qu^^jhey always constitute a.~~very'~m^ST^S£^^^^r of,„^b£»iataJLstrength...I But, within "certain limits, which are la id down b Y_the_Jaw of numberSj^ the Jtrue elemenf s of superioEltsL..imd£rJ:h£L-Di:ese n.t^Ystem of g iga ntic a rmTes are seen to be spiritual and moral^str^^Bi^^^S^Jarger masses will be.b?aten^]B£X]smalJj^TClPled^nd^ army,_ The Russo-Japanese War has prove? this once more. Granted that the development of military strength is the first duty of every State, since all else depends upon the possibility to assert power, it does not follow that the State must spend the total of its personal and financial resources solely on military strength in the narrower sense of army and navy. That is neither feasible nor profitable. The military power of a people is not exclusively de- termined by these external resources; it consists, rather, in a harmonious development of physical, spiritual, moral, financial, and military elements of strength. The highest 124 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR and most effective military system cannot be developed ex- cept by the co-operation of all these factors. It needs a broad and well-constructed basis in order to be effective. In the Manchurian War at the critical moment, when the Japanese attacking strength seemed spent, the Rus- sian military system broke down, because its founda- tion was unstable; the State had fallen into political and moral ruin, and the very army was tainted with revolution- ary ideas. The social requirement of maintaining military effi- ciency, and the political necessity for so doing, determine the nature and degree o^ warlike preparations; but it must be remembered that this standard may be very variously estimated, according to the notion of what the State's duties are. Thus, in Germany the most violent dis- putes burst out whenever the question of the organization of the military forces is brought up, since widely different opinions prevail about the duties of the State and of the army. It is, indeed, impossible so to formulate and fix the political duties of the State that they cannot be looked at from another standpoint. The social democrat, to whom agitation is an end in itself, will see the duty of the State in a quite different light from the political dilettante, who lives from hand to mouth, without making the bear- ing of things clear to himself, or from the sober states- man who looks to the welfare of the community and keeps his eyes fixed on the distant beacons on the horizon of the future. Certain points of view, however, may be laid down, which, based on the nature of things, check to some degree any arbitrary decision on these momentous questions, and are well adapted to persuade calm and experienced thinkers. First, it must be observed that military power cannot be improvised in the present political world, even though all the elements for it are present. Although the German Empire contains 65,000,000 in- habitants, compared to 40,000,000 of French, this excess in population represents merely so much dead capital, THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 125 unless a corresponding majority of recruits are annually enlisted, and unless in peace-time the necessary machinery is set up for their organization. The assumption that these masses would be available for the army in the moment of need is a delusion. It would not mean a strengthening, but a distinct weakening, of the army, not to say a danger, if these untrained masses were at a crisis suddenly sent on active service. Bourbaki's campaign shows what is to be expected from such measures. Owing to the complexity of all modern affairs, the continuous ad- vance in technical skill and in the character of warlike weapons, as also in the increased requirements expected from the individual, long and minute preparations are necessary to procure the highest military values. Allusion has already been made to this at the beginning of this chapter. It_takes a year to complet6a20:C6»tkBetEfi.jgan^ non. If 'iOs to be read 3r "foT •tlge'' ata given time, i t r^^^^vg^^ii^mlj^^^iS^^^Se^&^iS^. yeaTTwill pass b'efore the full effect of the strengthening of the army, which is now being decided on, appears in the rolls of the Reserve and the Landwehr. The recruit who begins his service to-day requires a year's training to become a useful soldier. With the hasty training of substitute reservists and such expedients, we merely deceive our- selves as to the necessity of serious preparations. We must not regard the present only, but provide for the future. The same argument applies to the political conditions. The man who makes the bulk of the preparations for war dependent on the shifting changes of the politics of the day, who wishes to slacken off in the work of arming because no clouds in the political horizon suggest the necessity of greater efforts, acts contrary to all real states- manship, and is sinning against his country. The moment does not decide; the great political aspira- tions, oppositions, and tensions, which are based on the nature of things — these turn the scale. When King William at the beginning of the sixties of the last century undertook the reorganization of the Prus- sian army, no political tension existed. The crisis of 126 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR 1859 had just subsided. But the King had perceived that the Prussian armament was insufficient to meet the re- quirements of the future. After a bitter struggle he extorted from his people a reorganization of the army, and this laid the foundations without which the glorious progress of our State would never have begun. In the same true spirit of statesmanship the Emperor William II. has powerfully aided and extended the evolution of our fleet, without being under the stress of any political neces- sity; he has enjoyed the cheerful co-operation of his people, since the reform at which he aimed was universally rec- ognized as an indisputable need of the future, and accorded with traditional German sentiment. ji While the preparation for war must be completed ir- l respectively of the political influences of the day, the mili- |tary power of the probable opponents marks a limit below i which the State cannot sink without jeopardizing the na- tional safety. Further, the State is bound to enlist in its service all the discoveries of modern science, so far as they can be applied to warfare, since all these methods and engines of war, should they be exclusively in the hands of the enemy, would secure him a distinct superiority. It is an obvious necessity to keep the forces which can be put into the field as up-to-date as possible, and to facilitate their military operations by every means which science and mechanical skill supply. Further, the army must be large enough to constitute a school for the whole nation, in which a thoroughgoing and no mere superficial military efficiency may be attained. Finally, the nature of the preparation for war is to some degree regulated by the political position of the State. If the State has satisfied its political ambitions and is chiefly concerned with keeping its place, the military policy will assume a more or less defensive character. States, on the other hand, which are still desirous of expansion, or such as are exposed to attacks on different sides, must adopt a predominantly ofiEensive military system. Preparations for war in this way follow definite lines, which are dictated by necessity and circumstances; but THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 127 it is evident that a wide scope is still left for varieties of personal opinion, especially where the discussion includes the positive duties of the State, which may lead to an energetic foreign policy, and thus possibly to an offensive war, and where very divergent views exist as to the prepa- ration for war. In this case the statesman's only resource is to use persuasion, and to so clearly expound and sup- port his conceptions of the necessary policy that the ma- jority of the nation accept his view. There are always and everywhere conditions which have a persuasive char- acter of their own, and appeal to the intellects and the feelings of the masses. Every Englishman is convinced of the necessity to main- tain the command of the sea, since he realizes that not only the present powerful position of the country, but also the possibility of feeding the population in case of war, depend on it. No sacrifice for the fleet is too great, and every increase of foreign navies instantly disquiets public opinion. The whole of France, except a few anti-military circles, feels the necessity of strengthening the position of the State, which was shaken by the defeats of 1870-71, through re- doubled exertions in the military sphere, and this object is being pursued with exemplary unanimity. Even in neutral Switzerland the feeling that political independence rests less on international treaties than on the possibility of self-defence is so strong and widespread that the nation willingly supports heavy taxation for its military equipment. In Germany, also, it should be pos- sible to arouse a universal appreciation of the great duties of the State, if only our politicians, without any diplo- . matic evasion, which deceives no one abroad and is harm- ful to the people at home, disclosed the true political situa- tion and the necessary objects of our policy. To be sure, they must be ready to face a struggle with public opinion, as King William I. did: for when public opinion does not stand under the control of a master will or a compelling necessity, it can be led astray too easily by the most varied influences. This danger is particularly great in a country so torn asunder internally and externally as Germany. He who in such a case listens to public 128 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR opinion runs a danger of inflicting immense harm on the interests of State and people. One of the fundamental principles of true statesmanship is that permanent interests should never be abandoned or prejudiced for the sake of momentary advantages, such as the lightening of the burdens of the taxpayer, the temporary maintenance of peace, or such like specious iDenefits, which, in the course of events, often prove distinct disadvantages. The statesman, therefore, led astray neither by popular opinion nor by the material difficulties which have to be surmounted, nor by the sacrifices required of his country- men, must keep these objects carefully in view. So long as it seems practicable he will try to reconcile the conflict- ing interests and bring them into harmony with his own. But where great fundamental questions await decision, such as the actual enforcement of universal service or of the requirements on which readiness for war depends, he must not shrink from strong measures in order to create the forces which the State needs, or will need, in order to maintain its vitality. One of the most essential political duties is to initiate and sanction preparations for war on a scale commen- surate with the existing conditions; to organize them ef- ficiently is the duty of the military authorities — a duty which belongs in a sense to the sphere of strategy, since it supplies the machinery with which commanders have to reckon. Policy and strategy touch in this sphere. Policy has a strategic duty to perform, since it sanctions preparations for war and defines their limit. It would, therefore, be a fatal and foolish act of political weakness to disregard the military and strategic stand- point, and to make the bulk of the preparations for war dependent on the financial means momentarily available. "No expenditure without security," runs the formula in which this policy clothes itself. It is justified only when the security is fixed by the expenditure. In a great civil- ized State it is the duties ' which must be fulfilled — as Treitschke, our great historian and national politician, tells us — that determine the expenditure, and the great Finance Minister is not the man who balances the national accounts THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARMING 129 by sparing the national forces, while renouncing the politi- cally indispensable outlay, but he who stimulates all the live forces of the nation to cheerful activity, and so em- ploys them for national ends that the State revenue suffices to meet the admitted political demands. He can only at- tain this purpose if he works in harmony with the Ministers for Commerce, Agriculture, Industries, and Colonies, in order to break down the restrictions which cramp the enterprise and energy of the individual, to make all dead values remunerative, and to create favourable conditions for profitable business. A great impulse must thrill the whole productive and financial circles of the State, if the duties of the present and the future are to be fulfilled. Thus the preparation for war, which, under modern con- ditions, calls for very considerable expenditure, exercises a marked influence on the entire social and political life of the people and on the financial policy of the State. CHAPTER VII THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR The social necessity of maintaining the power of the nation to defend itself, the political claims which the State puts forward, the strength of the probable hostile combinations, are the chief factors which determine the conditions of preparation for war. I have already tried to explain and formulate the duties in the spheres of policy and progress which our history and our national character impose on us. My next task is to observe the possible military combinations which we must be prepared to face. In this way only can we estimate the dangers which threaten us, and can judge whether, and to what degree, we can carry out our political intentions. A thorough understanding of these hostile counter-movements will give us a clear insight into the character of the next war; and this war will decide our future. It is not sufficient to know the military fighting forces of our probable antagonists, although this knowledge con- stitutes the necessary basis for further inquiry; but we must picture to ourselves the intensity of the hostility with which we have to reckon and the probable efficiency of our enemies. The hostility which we must anticipate is deter- mined by the extent to which mutual political schemes and ambitions clash, and by the opposition in national character. Our opinion as to the military efficiency of our rivals must be based on the latest data available. If we begin by looking at the forces of the individual States and groups of States which may be hostile to us, we have the following results: According to the recent communications of the French 130 THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 131 Finance Minister Klotz (in a speech made at the unveiling of a war memorial in Issoudun), the strength of the French army on a peace footing in the year 1910 amounted in round figures to 580,000 men. This included the "Colonial Corps," stationed in France itself, which, in case of war, belongs to the field army in the European theatre of war, and the "Service auxiliaire" — that is, some 30,000 non- efficients, who are drafted in for service without arms. The entire war establishment, according to the informa- tion of the same Minister, including field army and reserves, consists of 2,800,000 men available on mobilization. A reduction from this number must be made in event of mobilization, which French sources put down at 20 per cent. The whole strength of the French field army and reserves may therefore be reckoned at some 2,300,000. To this must be added, as I gather from the same source, 1,700,000 Territorials, with their "reserve," from which a reduction of 25 per cent., or roughly 450,000 men, must be made. If it is assumed that in case of war, the distribution of the arms will correspond to that in peace, the result is, on the basis of the strength of separate arms, which the Budget of 191 1 anticipates, that out of the 2,300,000 field and reserve troops there must be assigned— to the infantry, about 1,530,000; to the cavalry, about 230,000 (since a considerable part of the reservists of these arms are em- ployed in the transport service) ; to the artillery, about 380,000 ; to the pioneers, 70,000 ; to train and administration services (trains, columns, medical service, etc.), 90,000. No further increase in these figures is possible since in France 90 per cent, of all those liable to serve have been called up, and the birth-rate is steadily sinking. While in 1870 it reached 940,000 yearly, it has sunk in 1908 to 790,000. Recourse already has been had to the expedi- ent of requiring smaller qualifications than before, and of filling the numerous subsidiary posts (clerks, waiters, etc.) with less efficient men, in order to relieve the troops themselves. Under these conditions, it was necessary to tap new sources, and the plan has been formed of increasing the 132 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR troops with native-born Algerians and Tunisians, in orde^r to be able to strengthen the European army with them in event of war. At the same time negroes, who are excellent and trustworthy material, are to be enrolled in West Africa. A limited conscription, such as exists in Tunis, is to be introduced into Algeria. The black army is at first to be completed by volunteers, and conscription will only be enforced at a crisis. These black troops are in the first place to garrison Algeria and Tunis, to release the troops stationed there for service in Europe, and to protect the white settlers against the natives. Since the negroes raised for military service are heathen, it is thought that they will be a counterpoise to the Mohammedan natives. It has been proved that negro troops stand the climate of North Africa excellently, and form very serviceable troops. The two black battalions stationed in the Schauja, who took part in the march to Fez, bore the climate well, and thoroughly proved their value. There can be no doubt that this plan will be vigorously prosecuted, with every prospect of success. It is so far in an early stage. Legis- lative proposals on the use of the military resources offered by the native Algerians and the West African negroes have not yet been laid before Parliament by the Government. It cannot yet be seen to what extent the native and black troops will be increased. The former Minister of War, Messimy, had advocated a partial conscription of the na- tive Algerians. An annual muster is made of the Algerian males of eighteen years of age available for military service. The Commission appointed for the purpose reported in 191 1 that, after the introduction of the limited service in the army and the reserve, there would be in Algeria and Tunisia combined some 100,000 to 120,000 native soldiers available in war-time. They could also be employed in Europe, and are thus intended to strengthen the Rhine army by three strong army corps of first-class troops, who, in the course of years, may probably be considerably increased by the formation of reserves. As regards the black troops, the matter is different. France, in her West African possessions combined, has some 16,000 negro troops available. As the black popula- THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 133 tion numbers 10,000,000 to 12,000,000, these figures may be considerably raised. Since May, 1910, there has been an experimental bat- talion of Senegalese sharp-shooters in Southern Algeria, and in the draft War Budget for 1912 a proposal was made to transfer a second battalion of Senegalese to Algeria. The conclusion is forced upon us that the plan of sending black troops in larger numbers to Algeria will be vigor- ously prosecuted. There is, however, no early probability of masses of black troops being transported to North Africa, since there are not at present a sufficient number of trained men available. The Senegalese Regiments i, 2 and 3, stationed in Senegambia, are hardly enough to replace and complete the Senegalese troops quartered in the other African colonies of France. Although there is no doubt that France is in a position to raise a strong black army, the probability that black divisions will be available for a European war is still remote. But it cannot be ques- tioned that they will be so some day. Still less is any immediate employment of native Moroc- can troops in Europe contemplated. Morocco possesses very good native warriors, but the Sultan exerts efifective sovereignty only over a part of the territory termed "Morocco." There cannot be, therefore, for years to come any question of employing this fighting material on a large scale. The French and Moroccan Governments are for the moment occupied in organizing a serviceable Sul- tan's army of 20,000 men to secure the command of the country and to release the French troops in Morocco. The annexation of Morocco may for the time being mean no great addition to military strength; but, as order is gradually established, the country will prove to be an excellent recruiting depot, and France will certainly use this source of power with all her accustomed energy in military matters. For the immediate future we have, therefore, only to reckon with the reinforcements of the French European army which can be obtained from Algeria and Tunisia, so soon as the limited system of conscription is universally adopted there. This will supply a minimum of 120,000 134 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR men, and the tactical value of these troops is known to any who have witnessed their exploits on the battle- fields of Weissenburg and Worth. At least one strong di- vision of Turcos is already available. Next to the French army, we are chiefly concerned with the military power of Russia. Since the peace and war establishments are not published, it is hard to obtain ac- curate statistics; no information is forthcoming as to the strength of the various branches of the service, but the totals of the army may be calculated approximately. Ac- cording to the recruiting records of the last three years, the strength of the Russian army on a peace footing amounts to 1,346,000 men, inclusive of Cossacks and Frontier Guards. Infantry and sharp-shooters are formed into 37 army corps (i Guards, i Grenadiers, and 25 army corps in Europe; 3 Caucasian, 2 Turkistanian, and 5 Siberian corps). The cavalry is divided into divisions, independent brigades, and separate independent regiments. In war, each army corps consists of 2 divisions, and is in round figures 42,000 strong; each infantry division contains 2 brigades, at a strength of 20,000. Each sharp- shooter brigade is about 9,000 strong, the cavalry divisions about 4,500 strong. On the basis of these numbers, we arrive at a grand total of 1,800,000 for all the army corps, divisions, sharp-shooter brigades, and cavalry divisions. To this must be added unattached troops and troops on frontier or garrison duty, so that the war strength of the standing army can be reckoned at some 2,000,- 000. This grand total is not all available in a European the- atre of war. The Siberian and Turkistanian army corps must be deducted, as they would certainly be left in the interior and on the eastern frontier. For the maintenance of order in the interior, it would probably be necessary to leave the troops in Finland, the Guards at St. Peters- burg, at least one division at Moscow, and the Caucasian army corps in the Caucasus. This would mean a deduction of thirteen army corps, or 546,000 men ; so that we have to reckon with a field army, made up of the standing army, 1,454,000 men strong. To this must be added about 100 THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 135 regiments of Cossacks of the Second and Third Ban, which may be placed at 50,000 men, and the reserve and Empire-defence formations to be set on foot in case of war. For the formation of reserves, there are sufficient trained men available to constitute a reserve division of the first and second rank for each corps respectively. These troops, if each division is assumed to contain 20,000 men, would be 1,480,000 men strong. Of course, a certain reduction must be made in these figures. Also it is not known which of these formations would be really raised in event of mobilization. In any case, there will be an enormous army ready to be put into movement for a great war. After deducting all the forces which must be left behind in the interior, a field army of 2,000,000 men could easily be organized in Europe. It cannot be stated for certain whether arms, equipment, and ammunition for such a host can be supplied in sufficient quantity. But it will be best not to undervalue an Empire like Russia in this re- spect. Quite another picture is presented to us when we turn our attention to England, the third member of the Triple Entente. The British Empire is divided from the military point of view into two divisions : into the United Kingdom itself with the Colonies governed by the English Cabinet, and the self-governing Colonies. These latter have at their disposal a militia, which is sometimes only in process of formation. They can be completely ignored so far as con- cerns any European theatre of war. The army of the parts of the Empire administered by the English Cabinet divides into the regular army, which is filled up by enlistment, the native troops, commanded by English officers, and the Territorial army, a militia made up of volunteers which has not reached the intended total of 300,000. It is now 270,000 strong, and is destined exclusively for home defence. Its military value cannot at present be ranked very highly. For a Continental Euro- pean war it may be left out of account. We have in that case only to deal with a part of the regular English army. This is some 250,000 strong. The men serve twelve 136 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR years, of which seven are with the colours and five in the reserve. , The annual supply of recruits is 35,000. The regular reserve is now 136,000 strong. There is also a special reserve, with a militia-like training, which is enlisted for special purposes, so that the grand total of the reserve reaches the figure of 200,000. Of the regular English army, 134,000 men are stationed in England, 74,500 in India (where, in combination with 159,000 native troops, they form the Anglo-Indian army), and about 39,000 in different stations — Gibraltar, Malta, Egypt, Aden, South Africa, and the other Colonies and Protectorates. In this connection the conditions in Egypt are the most interesting: 6,000 English are stationed there, while in the native Egyptian army (17,000 strong; in war- time, 29,000 strong) one-fifth of the officers are English- men. It may be supposed that, in view of the great ex- citement in the Moslem world, the position of the English is precarious. The 11,000 troops now stationed in South Africa are to be transferred as soon as possible to Mediter- ranean garrisons. In event of war, a special division will, on emergency, be organized there. For a war in Continental Europe, we have only to take into account the regular army stationed in England. When mobilized, it forms the "regular field army" of 6 infantry divisions, i cavalry division, 2 mounted brigades and army troops, and numbers 130,000 men, without columns and trains. The regular troops in the United Kingdom which do not form part of the regular field army are some 100,- 006 strong. They consist of a very small number of mobile units, foot artillery, and engineers for coast defence, as well as the reserve formations. These troops, with some 13,000 militia artillery and militia engineers, consti- tute the Home Army, under whose protection the Territorial field army is completing its organization. Months must certainly elapse before portions of this army can strengthen the regular field army. At the most 150,000 men may be reckoned upon for an English expeditionary force. These troops compose at the same time the reserve of the troops stationed in the Colonies, which require reinforcements at grave crises. This constitutes the weak point in the THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 137 British armament. England can employ her regular army in a Continental war so long only as all is quiet in the Colonies. This fact brings into prominence how im- portant it will be, should war break out, to threaten England in her colonial possessions, and especially in Egypt._ Against the powerful hosts which the Powers of the Triple Entente can put into the field, Germany can com- mand an active army of 589,705 men (on peace establish- ment, including non-commissioned officers) and about 25,500 officers; while Austria has an army which on a peace footing is 361,553 men and about 20,000 officers strong. The combined war strength of the two States may be estimated as follows : In Germany there were drafted into the army, including volunteers and non-combatants, in 1892, 194,664 men; in 1909, 267,283 men; or on an average for seventeen years, 230,975 men annually. Thig gives a total of 3,926,575 men. If we estimate the natural decrease at 25 per cent., we have 2,944,931 trained men left. By adding the peace es- tablishment to it, we arrive at an estimated strength of 3,534,636, which the French can match with about the same figures. The annual enlistment in Austria amounts to some 135,- 000. Liability to serve lasts twelve years, leaving out of account service in the Landsturm. Deducting the three years of active service, this gives a total of 1,215,000, or, after the natural decrease by 25 per cent., 911,250 men. To this must be added the nine yearly batches of trained Landsturm, which, after the same deductions, will come likewise to 911,250. The addition of the peace strength of the army will produce a grand total of 2,184,053 men on a war footing; approximately as many as Russia, after all deductions, can bring into the field in Europe. In what numbers the existing soldiers would in case of war be available for field formations in Germany and Aus- tria is not known, and it would be undesirable to state. It depends partly on the forces available, partly on other circumstances which are not open to public discussion. However high our estimate of the new formations may be, 138 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR we shall never reach the figures which the combined forces of France and Russia present. We must rather try to nullify the numerical superiority of the enemy by the in- creased tactical value of the troops,_by intelligent general- ship, and a prompt use of opportunity and locality. Even the addition of the Italian army to the forces of Germany and Austria would not, so far as I know, restore numerical equality in the field. In France it has been thought hitherto that two or three army corps must be left on the Italian frontier. Modern French writers * are already reckoning so confidently on the withdrawal of Italy from the Triple Alliance that they no longer think it necessary to put an army in the field against Italy, but consider that the entire forces of France are available against Germany. The peace establishment of the Italian army amounts, in fact, to 250,000 men, and is divided into 12 army corps and 25 divisions. The infantry, in 96 regiments, numbers 140,000; there are besides 12 regiments of Bersaglieri, with which are 12 cyclist battalions and 8 Alpine regiments in 78 companies. The cavalry consists of 29 regiments, 12 of which are united in 3 cavalry divisions. The artillery has a strength of 24 field artillery regiments and i mounted regiment of artillery, and numbers 193 field and 8 mounted batteries. Besides this there are 27 mountain batteries and 10 regiments of garrison artillery in 98 companies. Lastly, there are 6 engineer regiments, including a tele- graph regiment and an airship battalion. The Gendarmerie contains 28,000 men. On a war footing the strength of the field army is 775,000. Some 70,000 men are enrolled in other formations of the first and second line. The militia is some 390,000 strong. The strength of the reserves who might be mobilized is not known. The field army is divided into 3 armies of 9 army corps in all, to which are added 8 to 12 divisions of the Territorial army and 4 cavalry divisions. As to colonial troops, Italy can command in Benadir the services of 48 officers and 16 non-commissioned officers of Italian birth, and 3,500 native soldiers ; in Eritrea there * Colonel Boucher, "L'off ensive contre TAllemagne." THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 139 are 131 officers, 644 non-commissioned officers and privates of Italian birth, and 3,800 natives. Italy thus can put a considerable army into the field; but it is questionable whether the South Italian troops have much tactical value. It is possible that large forces would be required for coast-defence, while the protection of Tripoli, by no means an easy task, would claim a power- ful army if it is to be held against France. The Turkish military forces would be of great import- ance if they joined the coalition of Central European Powers or its opponents. The regular peace establishment of the Turkish army amounts to 275,000 men. In the year 1910 there were three divisions of it: 1. The Active Army (Nizam) : Infantry 133.000 Cavalry 26,000 Artillery 43,000 Pioneers 4>Soo Special troops 7.S0O Train formations 3,000 Mechanics 3.000 A total, that is, of 220,000 men. 2. The Redif (militia) cadres, composed of infantry, 25,000 men. Within this limit, according to the Redif law, men are enlisted in turns for short training. 3. Officers in the Nizam and Redif troops, military em- ployes, officials, and others, more than 30,000. The entire war strength of the Turkish army amounts to 700,000 men. We need only to take into consideration the troops from Europe, Anatolia, Armenia, and Syria. All these troops even are not available in a European the- atre of war. On the other hand, the "Mustafiz" may be regarded as an "extraordinary reinforcement"; this is usu- ally raised for local protection or the maintenance of quiet and order in the interior. To raise 30,000 or 40,000 men of this militia in Europe is the simplest process. From the high military qualities of the Turkish soldiers, the Turkish army must be regarded as a very important factor. I40 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Turkey thus is a very valuable ally to whichever party she joins. The smaller Balkan States are also able to put- consider- able armies into the field. Montenegro can put 40,000 to 45,000 men into the field, with 104 cannons and 44 machine guns, besides 11 weak reserve battalions for frontier and home duties. Servia is supposed to have an army 28,000 strong on a peace footing; this figure is seldom reached, and sinks in winter to 10,000 men. The war establishment consists of 250,000 men, comprising about 165,000 rifles, 5,500 sabres, 432 field and mountain guns (108 batteries of 4 guns); besides this there are 6 heavy batteries of 4 to 6 cannons and 228 machine guns available. Lastly come the reserve formations (third line), so that in all some 305,000 men can be raised, exclusive of the militia, an uncertain quantity. The Bulgarian army has a peace establishment of 59,- 820 men. It is not known how they are distributed among the various branches of the service. On a war footing an army of 330,000 is raised, including infantry at a strength of 230,000 rifles, with 884 cannons, 232 machine guns, and 6,500 sabres. The entire army, inclusive of the reserves and national militia, which latter is only available for home service and comprises men from forty-one to forty-six years of age, is said to be 400,000 strong. Rumania, which occupies a peculiar position politically, forms a power in herself. There is in Rumania, besides the troops who according to their time of service /are per- manently with the colours, a militia cavalry called "Calarashi" (intelligent young yeomen on good horses of their own), whose units serve intermittently for short periods. In peace the army is composed of 5,000 officers and 90,000 men of the permanent establishment, and some 12,000 serving intermittently. The infantry numbers some 2,500 officers and 57,000 men, the permanent cavaky (Rosiori) some 8,000 men with 600 officers, and the artillery 14,000 men with 700 officers. For war a field army can be raised of some 6,000 officers and 274,000 men, with 550 cannons. Of these 215,000 men THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 141 belong to the infantry, 7,000 to the cavalry, and 20,000 to the artillery. The cavalry is therefore weaker than on the peace footing, since, as it seems, a part of the Calarashi is not to be employed as cavalry. Inclusive of reserves and militia, the whole army will be 430,000 strong. There are 650,000 trained men available for service. Although the Balkan States, from a military point of view, chiefly concern Austria, Turkey, and Russia, and only indirectly come into relations with Germany, yet the armies of the smaller Central European States may under some circumstances be of direct importance to us, if they are forced or induced to take part with us or against us in a European war. Of our western neighbours, Switzerland and Holland come first under consideration, and then Belgium.. Switzerland can command, in case of war, a combined army of 263,000 men. The expeditionary force, which is of first importance for an offensive war, consists of 96,000 infantry and 5,500 cavalry, with 288 field guns and 48 field howitzers (the howitzer batteries are in formation), a total of 141,000 men. The Landwehr consists of 50,000 infantry and 4,000 cavalry, with 36 12-centimetre cannons belonging to foot artillery. It has a total strength of 69,000 men. The Land- sturm finally has a strength of 53,000 men. The Dutch army has a peace establishment averaging 30,000 men, which varies much owing to the short period of service. There are generally available 13,000 infantry, 3,000 cavalry, 5,000 field artillery, 3,400 garrison artillery, and 1,400 engineers, pontonniers, and transport troops. The field army in war is 80,000 strong, and is made up of 64,000 infantry, cyclist, and machine-gun sections, 2,600 cavalry, 4,400 artillery, and 900 engineers. It is formed into 4 army divisions each of 15 battalions, 4 squadrons, 6 batteries, and i section engineers. There is, further, a garrison army of 80,000 men, which consists of 12 active and 48 Landwehr infantry battalions, 44 active and 44 Landwehr foot artillery companies, and 10 companies en- gineers and pontonniers, including Landwehr. The Dutch coast also is fortified. At Helder, Ymuiden, Hook of Hoi- 142 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR land, at Volkerack and Haringvliet there are various out- works, while the fortifications at Flushing are at present unimportant. Amsterdam is also a fortress with outlymg fortifications in the new Dutch water-line (Fort Holland). Holland is thus well adapted to cause serious difficulties to an English landing, if her coast batteries are armed with effective cannons. It would easily yield to a German in- vasion, if it sided against us. Belgium in peace has 42,800 troops available, distributed as follows: 26,000 infantry, 5,400 cavalry, 4,650 field ar- tillery, 3,400 garrison artillery, 1,550 engineers and transport service. On a war footing the field army will be 100,000 strong, comprising 74,000 infantry, 7,250 cavalry, 10,000 field ar- tillery, 1,900 engineers and transport service, and is formed into 4 army divisions and 2 cavalry divisions. The latter are each 20 squadrons and 2 batteries strong; each of the army divisions consists nominally of 17 battalions infantry, I squadron, 12 batteries, and i section engineers. In addi- tion there is a garrison army of 80,000, which can be strengthened by the garde civique. Antwerp forms the chief military base, and may be regarded as a very strong fortress. Besides this, on the line of the Maas, there are the fortified towns of Liege, Huy, and Namur. There are no coast fortifications. Denmark, as commanding the approaches to the Baltic, is of great military importance to us. Copenhagen, the capital, is a strong fortress. The army, on the other hand, is not an important factor of strength, as the training of the units is limited to a few months. This State maintains on a peace footing some 10,000 infantry, 800 cavalry, 2,300 artillery, and 1,100 special arms, a total of 14,200 men; but the strength varies between 7,500 and 26,000. In war- time an army of 62,000 men and 10,000 reserves can be put into the field, composed numerically of 58,000 infantry, 3,000 cavalry, 9,000 artillery, and 2,000 special arms. Sweden can command eight classes of the First Ban, which comprises units from twenty-one to twenty-eight years of age, and is 200,000 strong, as well as four classes of the Second Ban, with a strength of 90,000, which is made THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 143 up of units from twenty-eight to thirty-two years of age. There are also available 30,000 trained volunteers, students and ex-students from twenty-one to thirty-two years of age. The eight classes of the Landsturm are 165,000 men strong. It can, accordingly, be roughly calculated what field army can be raised in case of war. The entire First Ban certainly comes under this head. In Greece, which does not signify much for a European war, but might in combination with the small Balkan States prove very troublesome to Turkey, and is therefore im- portant for us, an active army of 146,000 men can be put into the field ; there are besides this 83,000 men in the Land- wehr and 63,000 men in the Landsturm. Spain has a peace army of 116,232 men, of whom 34,000 are permanently stationed in Africa. In war she can raise 327,000 men (140,000 active army, 154,000 garrison troops, 33,000 gendarmerie). The mobilization is so badly or- ganized that at the end of a month 70,000 to 80,000 men could at most be put into the field. As regards the naval forces of the States which concern us to-day, the accompanying table, which is taken from the Nauticus of 191 1, affords a comparative epitome, which applies to May, 191 1. It shows that, numerically, the Eng- lish fleet is more than double as strong as ours. This su- periority is increased if the displacements and the number of really modern ships are compared. In May we possessed only four battleships and one armed cruiser of the latest type ; the English have ten ships-of-the-line and four armed cruisers which could be reckoned battleships. The new ships do not materially alter this proportion. The com- parative number of the ships-of-the-line is becoming more favourable, that of the armoured cruisers will be less so than it now is. It may be noticed that among our cruisers are a number of vessels which really have no fighting value, and that the coast-defence ironclads cannot be counted as battleships. France, too, was a little ahead of us in the number of battleships in May, 191 1, but, from all that is hitherto known about the French fleet, it cannot be com- pared with the German in respect of good material and 144 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR s . S 1 "= 1 « 1 fO 0\ N Ov r- ro •> 1 CO H ^^* fo o\o « w H 1 ^O M O w H 1 M W M « M a 'U O 1 vO 1 H I O»oo -0 1 0\ 1 1 r- N 1 2 1 ° o^ t^ 1 f^ 1 o» 1 co« 1 " 1 " 1 C» 1 ■* 1 111 1^^ ^i^ H hi i> rt ro M M ro UT^ 00 ^0 H r~-*o ■* o\« H M « VJ t>- M I/IM VO (H M W *M lO < frl H (N , o o o o o o 000 u ^ ro -*« CO ^o o> I> N CO t^ Xr^O ^1 Sa fH 1 loro dl O N d d dl N 1 ^O 1 W 1 1 M q d\»n M lOO »o W M M M *o rtM p^u a M ro H 6 (yjt^ \0 O ° 1 ■o « H 1 1 1 >-l 1 H , O O O o o o\ t^« t-- PO I> VI POM 'S'i lO 1 0\C0 O 1 lO 1 00 1 °^ 1 1 1 1 M 1 00 H iS T? 1 ■^lO ^1 c^ 1 » 1 4I 1 1 1 « 1 C>i> M 00 ■* M c^ H VO 00 coo |i a M -^ M w H M H 6 O -t 00\O « 1 o 1 (») 1 "O 1 1 II ■* 1 ro-* 12; M ro « 1 H 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 w J" II II 1 1 1 1 1 1 :?i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i||f ^ 6 II II 1 1 1 1 1 1 •-• 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 < ^ ^ M II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , o loured Defenc Is from Tons tc 1 Tons. ll ll II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 cq ■* 1/1 1 00 1 Ann Coast Vesse 3,ooo S.ooc 1 ■"1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ^\ IN 1 ji o o o o o o o i? M vO ■ ■<* d 1 CO Osoo M o\ O\oo a vO l> rOOv Ov n Q ro t>.« CO H -^H M ^ men o w « "t 00 ■* H Vi '=tOOO Tr 1 t^ COCO !z: « M V)H « HI c*3 H ^^t^ •• M M M M ^ M bO !» s ^ « a S -S a .9 •i§ 'S • ■a ■ % S :2 .ajija*) « -S • •a a ''3 "'3 "B '■3 2 3 |SES| S "3 ■3 ■B ^ ja XI .Q 5 -^ < ^ .a ^ its iti S 4) rf lU 8 s W fe iillH 5 h O] S Z V o §11 ill |P!|> §»!> ifo gPi> "m pq in 5«> O W to s < Pii 5 - THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 145 trained crews. It would, however, be an important factor if allied with the English. Let us assume that in event of war England as well as France must leave a certain naval force in the Mediter- ranean, which need not be stronger than the combined Italian and Austrian fleets, but might be smaller, in event of a change in the grouping of the States; let us further assume that numerous cruisers will be detained at the ex- tra-European stations — the fact, however, remains that Eng- land and France together can collect against Germany in the North Sea a fleet of battleships alone three times as strong as that of Germany, and will be supported by a vastly superior force of torpedo-vessels and submarines. If Russia joins the alliance of these Powers, that would signify another addition to the forces of our opponents which must not be underestimated, since the Baltic Fleet in the spring of 191 1 contained two large battleships, and the Baltic fleet of cruisers is always in a position to threaten our coasts and to check the free access to the Baltic. In one way or the other we must get even with that fleet. The auxiliary cruiser fleet of the allies, to which England can send a large contingent, would also be superior to us. As regards materiel and training, it may be assumed that our fleet is distinctly superior to the French and Russian, but that England is our equal in that respect. Our ships' cannons will probably show a superiority over the Eng- lish, and our torpedo fleet, by its reckless energy, excellent training, and daring spirit of adventure, will make up some of the numerical disadvantage. It remains to be seen whether these advantages will have much weight against the overwhelming superiority of an experienced and cele- brated fleet like the English. Reflection shows that the superiority by sea, with which we must under certain circumstances reckon, is very great, and that our position in this respect is growing worse, since the States of the Triple Entente can build and man far more ships than we can in the same time. If we consider from the political standpoint the probable attitude of the separate States which may take part in the next war against Germany, we may assume that the in- 146 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR tensity of the struggle will not be the same in every case, since the political objects of our possible antagonists are very different. If we look at France first, we are entitled to assume that single-handed she is not a match for us, but can only be dangerous to us as a member of a coalition. The tacti- cal value of the French troops is, of course, very high; numerically the army of our neighbour on the west is almost equal, and in some directions there may be a superiority in organization and equipment; in other directions we have a distinct advantage. The French army lacks the subordi- nation under a single commander, the united spirit which characterizes the German army, the tenacious strength of the German race, and the esprit de corps of the officers. France, too, has not those national reserves available which would allow us almost to double our forces. These are the conditions now existing. But if the French succeed in making a large African army available for a European theatre, the estimate of strength of the French army as compared with ours will be quite different. This possi- bility must be borne in mind, for, according to the whole previous development of affairs, we may safely assume that France will leave no stone unturned to acquire, if only for a time, a military superiority over Germany. She knows well that she cannot reach her political goal except by a complete defeat of her eastern neighbour, and that such a result can only be obtained by the exercise of extraordi- nary efforts. It is certain that France will not only try to develop her own military power with the utmost energy, but that she will defend herself desperately if attacked by Germany; on the other hand, she will probably not act on the offen- sive against Germany unless she has increased her own efficiency to the utmost limit, and believes that she has secured the military supremacy by the help of active allies. The stakes are too high to play under unfavourable con- ditions. But if France thinks she has all the trumps in her hands, she will not shrink from an offensive war, and will stake everything in order to strike us a mortal blow. We must expect the most bitter hostility from this an- THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 147 tagonist. Should the Triple Alliance break up as seems probable now — this hour will soon have struck.* If the war then declared be waged against us in combina- tion with England, it may be assumed that the allied Great Powers would attempt to turn our strategical rjght flank through Belgium and Holland, and penetrate into the heart of Germany through the great gap in the fortresses between Wesel and Flushing. This operation would have the considerable advantage of avoiding the strong line of the Rhine and threatening our naval bases from the land side. From the superiority of the combined Anglo-French fleet, the army of invasion could without difficulty have its base on our coasts. Such an operation would enormously facilitate the frontal attack on our west frontier, and would enable the French to push a victorious advance onward to the Rhine, after investing Metz and Diedenhofen. England, with whose hostility, as well with that of the French, we must reckon, could only undertake a land war against us with the support of an ally who would lead the main attack. England's troops would only serve as re- inforcements ; they are too weak for an independent cam- paign. English interests also lie in a quite different field, and are not coincident with those of France. The main issue for England is to annihilate our navy and oversea commerce, in order to prevent, from reasons already explained, any further expansion of our power. But it is not her interest to destroy our position as a Con- tinental Power, or to help France to attain the supremacy in Europe. English interests demand a certain equilibrium between the Continental States. England only wishes to use France in order, with her help, to attain her own special ends, but she will never impose on herself sacrifices which are not absolutely necessary, for the private advantage of her ally. These principles will characterize her plan of campaign, if she sees herself compelled by the political position and the interests of her naval supremacy to take part in a war against us. If England, as must be regarded probable, determines ♦Written in October, 191 1. 148 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR sooner or later on this step, it is clearly to her advantage to win a rapid victory. In the first place, her own trade will not be injured longer than necessary by the war ; in the second place, the centrifugal forces of her loosely com- pacted World Empire might be set in movement, and the Colonies might consult their own separate interests, should England have her hands tied by a great war. It is not unlikely that revolutions might break out in India and Egypt, if England's forces were long occupied with a European war. Again, the States not originally taking part in the war might interfere in our favour, if the de- cision were much delayed. It was important for us in 1870- 71 to take Paris quickly, in order to forestall any inter- ference of neutrals. Similar conditions might arise in the case of England. We must therefore make up our minds that the attack by sea will be made with the greatest and most persistent vigour, with the firm resolve to destroy completely our fleet and our great commercial centres. It is also not only possible, but probable, that England will throw troops on the Continent, in order to secure the co-operation of her allies, who might demand this guarantee of the sincerity of English policy, and also to support the naval attack on the coast. On the other hand, the land war will display the same kind of desperate energy only so far as it pursues the object of conquering and destroying our naval bases. The English would be the less disposed to do more than this because the German auxiliaries, who have so often fought England's battles, would not be forthcoming. The greatest exertions of the nation will be limited to the naval war. The land war will be waged with a definitely restricted object, on which its character will depend. It is very questionable whether the English army is capable of effectively acting on the offensive against Continental European troops. In South Africa the English regiments for the most part fought very bravely and stood great losses; on the other hand, they completely failed in the offensive, in tactics -as in operations, and with few exceptions the generalship was equally deficient. The last manoeuvres on a large scale, held in Ireland, under the direction of General French' THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 149 did not, according to available information, show the Eng- lish army in a favourable light so far as strategical ability went. If we now turn our attention to the East, in order to forecast Russia's probable behaviour, we must begin by admitting that, from a Russian standpoint, a war in the West holds out better prospects of success than a renewed war with Japan, and possibly with China. The Empire of the Czar finds in the West powerful allies, who are im- patiently waiting to join in an attack on Germany. The geographical conditions and means of communication there allow a far more rapid and systematic development of power than in Manchuria. Public opinion, in which hatred of Germany is as persistent as ever, would be in favour of such a war, and a victory over Germany and Austria would not only open the road to Constantinople, but would greatly improve the political and economic influence of Russia in Western Europe. Such a success would af- ford a splendid compensation for the defeats in Asia, and would offer advantages such as never could be ex- pected on the far-distant Eastern frontiers of the Em- pire. Should Russia, then, after weighing these chances, launch out into an offensive war in the West, the struggle would probably assume a quite different character from that, for example, of a Franco-German war. Russia, owing to her vast extent, is in the first place secure against com- plete subjugation. In case of defeat her centre of gravity is not shifted. A Russian war can hardly ever, therefore, become a struggle for political existence, and cause that straining of every nerve which such a struggle entails. The inhabitants will hardly ever show self-devotion in wars whose objects cannot be clear to them. Throughout the vast Empire the social and also political education, espe- cially among the peasants, is so poor, that any grasp of the problems of a foreign policy seems quite out of the ques- tion. The sections of the people who have acquired a little superficial learning in the defective Russian schools have sworn to the revolutionary colours, or follow a blind anti- progressive policy which seems to them best to meet their ISO GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR interests. The former, at least, would only make use of a war to promote their own revolutionary schemes, as they did in the crisis of the Russo-Japanese War. Under the circumstances, there can be little idea of a united out- burst of the national spirit which would enable an offensive war to be carried on with persistent vigour.- There has been an extraordinary change in the conditions since 1812, when the people showed some unanimity in repelling the invasion. Should Russia to-day be involved in a Western war with Germany and Austria, she could never bring her whole forces into play. In the first place, the revolutionary elements in the heart of the State would avail themselves of every weakening of the national sources of power to effect a revolution in internal politics, without any regard for the interests of the community. Secondly, in the Far East, Japan or China would seize the moment when Russia's forces in the West were fully occupied to carry out their political intentions towards the Empire of the Czar by force of arms. Forces must always be kept in reserve for this eventuality, as we have already mentioned. Although Russia, under the present conditions, cannot bring her whole power to bear against Germany and Aus- tria, and must also always leave a certain force on her Euro- pean Southern frontier, she is less affected by defeats than other States. Neither the Crimean War nor the greater exertions and sacrifices exacted by her hard-won victory over the Turks, nor the heavy defeats by the Japanese, have seriously shaken Russia's political prestige. Beaten in the East or South, she turns to another sphere of enterprise, and endeavours to recoup herself there for her losses on another frontier. Such conditions must obviously affect the character of the war. Russia will certainly put huge armies into the field against us. In the wars against Turkey and Japan the internal affairs of the Empire prevented the employment of its full strength; in the latter campaign revolutionary agitation in the army itself influenced the operations and battles, and in a European war the same conditions would, in all probability, make themselves emphatically felt, espe- THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 151 cially if defeats favoured or encouraged revolutionary prop- aganda. In a war against Russia, more than in any other war, c'est le premier pas qui coute. If the first operations are unsuccessful, their effort on the whole position will be wider than in any other war, since they will excite in the country itself not sympathetic feelings only, but also hostile forces which would cripple the conduct of the war. So far as the efficiency of the Russian army goes, the Russo-Japanese War proved that the troops fight with great stubbornness. The struggle showed numerous instances of heroic self-devotion, and the heaviest losses were often borne with courage. On the other hand, the Russian army quite failed on the offensive, in a certain sense tac- tically, but essentially owing to the inadequacy of the com- manders and the failure of the individuals. The method of conducting the war was quite wrong; indecision and irresolution characterized the Russian officers of every grade, and no personality came forward who ever at- tempted to rise above mediocrity. It can hardly be pre- sumed that the spirit of Russian generalship has completely changed since the defeats in Manchuria, and that strik- ing personalities have come on the stage. This army must therefore always be met with a bold policy of at- tack. When we contrast these conditions with the position of Germany, we cannot blink the fact that we have to deal with immense military difficulties, if we are to attain our own political ends or repel successfully the attack of our opponents. In the first place, the geographical configuration and po- sition of our country are very unfavourable. Our open eastern frontier offers no opportunity for continued de- fence, and Berlin, the centre of the government and ad- ministration, lies in dangerous proximity to it. Our western frontier, in itself strong, can be easily turned on the north through Belgium and Holland. No natural ob- stacle, no strong fortress, is there to oppose a hostile in- vasion, and neutrality is only a paper bulwark. So in the south, the barrier of the Rhine can easily be turned 152 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR through Switzerland. There, of course, the character of the country oflfers considerable difficulties, and if the Swiss de- fend themselves resolutely, it might not be easy to break down their resistance. Their army is no despicable factor of strength, and if they were attacked in their mountains they would fight as they did at Sempach and Murten. The natural approaches from the North Sea to the Bal- tic, the Sound and the Great Belt, are commanded by for- eign guns, and can easily fall a prey to our enemies. The narrow coast with which we face to the North Sea forms in itself a strong front, but can easily be taken in the rear through Holland. England is planted before our coasts in such a manner that our entire oversea commerce can be easily blocked. In the south and south-east alone are we secured by Austria from direct invasion. Otherwise we are encircled by ouri enemies. We may have to face attacks on three sides. This circumstance compels us to fight on the inner lines, and so presents certain advantages ; but it is also fraught with dangers, if our opponents understand how to act on a correct and consistent plan. If we look at our general political position, we cannot conceal the fact that we stand isolated, and cannot expect support from any one in carrying out our positive political plans. England, France, and Russia have a common, in- terest in breaking down our power. This interest will sooner or later be asserted by arms. It is not therefore the interest of any nation to increase Germany's power. If we wish to attain an extension of our power, as is natu- ral in our position, we must win it by the sword against vastly superior foes. Our alliances are defensive, not merely in form, but essentially so. I have already shown that this is a cause of their weakness. Neither Austria nor Italy are in any way bound to support by armed force a German policy directed towards an increase of power. We are not even sure of their diplomatic help, as the con- duct of Italy at the conference of Algeciras sufficiently demonstrated. It even seems questionable at the present moment whether we can always reckon on the support of the members of the Triple Alliance in a defensive war. THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR 153 The recent rapprochement of Italy with France and Eng- land goes far beyond the idea of an "extra turn." If we consider how difficult Italy would find it to make her forces fit to cope with France, and to protect her coasts against hostile attacks, and if we think how the annexation of Tripoli has created a new possession, which is not easily defended against France and England, we may fairly doubt whether Italy would take part in a war in which England and France were allied against us. Austria is undoubtedly a loyal ally. Her interests are closely connected with our own, and her policy is dominated by the same spirit of loyalty and integrity as ours towards Austria. Never- theless, there is cause for anxiety, because in a conglomerate State like Austria, which contains numerous Slavonic ele- ments, patriotism may not be strong enough to allow the Government to fight to the death with Russia, were the latter to defeat us. The occurrence of such an event is not improbable. When enumerating the possibilities that might affect our policy, we cannot leave this one out of consideration. We shall therefore some day, perhaps, be faced with the necessity of standing isolated in a great war of the nations, as once Frederick the Great stood, when he was basely deserted by England in the middle of the struggle, and shall have to trust to our own strength and our own resolution for victory. Such a war — for us more than for any other nation — must be a war for our political and national existence. This must be so, for our opponents can only attain their political aims by almost annihilating us by land and by sea. If the victory is only half won, they would have to expect continuous renewals of the contest, which would be contrary to their interests. They know that well enough, and therefore avoid the contest, since we shall certainly defend ourselves with the utmost bitterness and obstinacy. If, notwithstanding, circumstances make the war inevitable, then the intention of our enemies to crush us to the ground, and our own resolve to maintain our position victoriously, will make it a war of desperation. A war fought and lost under such circumstances would destroy our laboriously 154 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR gained political importance, would jeopardize the whole future of our nation, would throw us back for cen- turies, would shake the influence of German thought in the civilized world, and thus check the general progress of mankind in its healthy development, for which a flourish- ing Germany is the essential condition. Our next war will be fought for the highest interests of our country and of mankind. This will invest it with importance in the world's history. "World power or downfall!" will be our rallying cry. Keeping this idea before us, we must prepare for war with the confident intention of conquering, and with the iron resolve to persevere to the end, come what may. We must therefore prepare not only for a short war, but for a protracted campaign. We must be armed in order to complete the overthrow of our enemies, should the vic- tory be ours; and, if worsted, to continue to defend our- selves in the very heart of our country until success at last is won. It is therefore by no means enough to maintain a certain numerical equality with our opponents. On the contrary, we must strive to call up the entire forces of the nation, and prepare and arm for the great decision which impends. We must try also to gain a certain superiority over our opponents in the crucial points, so that we may hold some winning trumps in our hand in a contest unequal from the very first. We must bear these two points in mind when preparing for war. Only by continually realizing the duties thus laid on us can we carry out our preparations to the fullest, and satisfy the demands which the future makes on us. A nation of 65,000,000 which stakes all her forces on winning herself a position, and on keeping that position, cannot be conquered. But it is an evil day for her if she relies on the semblance of power, or, miscalculating her enemies' strength, is content with half-measures, and looks to luck' or chance for that which can only be attained by the exertion and development of all her powers. CHAPTER VIII THE NEXT NAVAL WAR In the next European land war we shall probably face our foes with Austria at our side, and thus will be in a position to win the day against any opposing forces. In a naval war we shall be thrown on our own resources, and must protect ourselves single-handed against the superior forces which will certainly press us hard. There can be no doubt that this war will be waged with England, for, although we cannot contemplate attacking England, as such an attack would be hopeless, that country itself has a lively interest in checking our political power. It will therefore, under certain conditions, attack us, in order to annihilate our fleet and aid France. The English have, besides, taken good care that the prospect of a war with them should always be held before our eyes. They talk so much of a possible German attack that it cannot surprise them if the light thrown on the question is from the opposite point of view. Again, the preparations which they are making in the North Sea show clearly that they certainly have contemplated an attack on Germany. These preparations are like a strategic march, and the natural extension of their naval bases leaves no doubt as to their meaning. The great military harbour of Rosyth is admit- tedly built for the eventuality of a war with Germany, and can mean nothing else. Harwich has also been recently made into an especially strong naval base, and, further, the roadstead of Scapa Flow in the Orkney Isles has been en- larged into a cruiser station. These are measures so directly and obviously directed against us that they demand an in- quiry into the military position thus created. The English have only considered the possibility of a iSS 156 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR German war since 1902. Before that year there was no idea of any such contingency, and it is therefore not unnatural that they are eager to make up for lost time. This fact does not alter the hostile character of the measures and the circumstance that the English preparations for war are exclusively directed against Germany. We must therefore — as the general position of the world leads us to believe — reckon on the probability of a naval war with England, and shall then have to fight against an overwhelming superiority. It will be so great that we cannot hope for a long time to be able to take the offensive against the English fleet. But we must contemplate the possibility of becoming its master in one way or another, and of winning the freedom of the seas, if England attacks us. We shall now discuss this possibility. On this matter I am expressing my personal views only, which are not con- fused by any technical naval knowledge, and rest exclu- sively on general military considerations, in which our presupposed antagonists can, and will, indulge quite as well as myself. I shall not betray any secrets of the Admiralty, since I do not know any. But I consider it expedient that the German people should clearly understand what dangers threaten from England, and how they can be met. In the view of these dangers and the circumstance that we are not strong enough to entertain any idea of provok- ing a battle, the question remains. What are the means of defensive naval strategy, to secure protection from a su- perior and well-prepared enemy, and gradually to become its master? The plan might be formed of anticipating the enemy by a sudden attack, instead of waiting passively for him to attack first, and of opening the war as the Japanese did before Port Arthur. In this way the English fleet might be badly damaged at the outset of the real hostilities, its superiority might be lessened, and the beginning of the effective blockade delayed at least for a short time. It is not unthinkable that such an attempt will be made. Such an undertaking, however, does not seem to me to promise any great success. The English have secured themselves against such at- THE NEXT NAVAL WAR 157 tacks by comprehensive works of defence in their exposed harbours. It seems dangerous to risk our torpedo-boats and submarines, which we shall urgently need in the later course of the war, in such bold undertakings. Even the war against the English commerce holds out less prospects than formerly. As soon as a state of political tension sets in, the English merchantmen will be convoyed by their numerous cruisers. Under such circumstances our aux- iliary cruisers could do little ; while our foreign service ships would soon have to set about attacking the enemy's war- ships, before coal ran short, for to fill up the coal-bunkers of these ships will certainly be a difficult task. The war agaii}st the English commerce must none the less be boldly and energetically prosecuted, and should start unexpectedly. The prizes which fall into our hands must be remorselessly destroyed, since it will usually be impossible, owing to the great English superiority and the few bases we have abroad, to bring them back in safety without exposing our vessels to great risks. The sharpest measures must be taken against neutral ships laden with contraband. Nevertheless, no very valuable results can be expected from a war against England's trade. On the contrary, England, with the numerous cruisers and aux- iliary cruisers at her disposal, would be able to cripple our oversea commerce. We must be ready for a sudden at- tack, even in peace-time. It is not England's custom to let ideal considerations fetter her action if her interests are at stake. Under these circumstances, nothing would be left for us but to retire with our war-fleet under the guns of the coast fortifications, and by the use of mines to protect our own shores and make them dangerous to English vessels. Mines are only an effective hindrance to attack if they can be defended. But they can cause considerable damage if the enemy has no knowledge of their existence. It would be necessary to take further steps to secure the importation from abroad of supplies necessary to us, since our own communications will be completely cut off by the English. The simplest and cheapest way would be if we obtained foreign goods through Holland or perhaps neu- 158 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR tral Belgium ; and could export some part of our own prod- ucts though the great Dutch and Flemish harbours. New commercial routes might be discovered through Denmark. Our own oversea commerce would remain suspended, but such measures would prevent an absolute stagnation of trade. It is, however, very unUkely that England would tolerate such communications through neutral territory, since in that way the effect of her war on our trade would be much reduced. The attempt to block these trade routes would approximate to a breach of neutrality, and the States in question would have to face the momentous question, whether they w;ould conform to England's will, and thus incur Germany's enmity, or would prefer that adhesion to the German Empire which geography dictates. They would have the choice between a naval war with England and a Continental war with their German neighbours — two pos- sibilities, each of which contains great dangers. That Eng- land would pay much attention to the neutrality of weaker neighbours when such a stake was at issue is hardly credi- ble. The ultimate decision of the individual neutral States cannot be foreseen. It would probably depend on the gen- eral political position and the attitude of the other World Powers to the Anglo-German contest. The policy adopted by France and Russia would be an important factor. One can easily understand under these circumstances that the Dutch are seriously proposing to fortify strongly the most important points on their coast, in order to be able to main- tain their neutrality on the sea side. They are also anxious about their eastern frontier, which obviously would be threatened by a German attack so soon as they sided with our enemies. I shall not enter further into the political and military possibilities which might arise if Holland, Belgium, and Denmark were driven to a sympathetic understanding by the war. I will only point out how widespread an effect the naval war can, or rather must, exercise on the Con- tinental war and on the political relations generally. The attitude of Denmark would be very important, since the passage to and from the Baltic must mainly depend on her. THE NEXT NAVAL WAR 159 It is vital to us that these communications be kept open, and measures must be taken to insure this. The open door through the Belt and the Sound can become highly im- portant for the conduct of the war. Free commerce with Sweden is essential for us, since our industries will depend more and more on the Swedish iron-ore as imports from other countries become interrupted. It will rest with the general state of affairs and the policy of the interested nations whether this sea route can be safe- guarded by diplomatic negotiations, or must be kept open by military action. We cannot allow a hostile power to oc- cupy the Danish islands. Complicated and grave questions, military as well as political, are thus raised by an Anglo-German war. Our trade would in any case suffer greatly, for sea communica- tions could be cut off on every side. Let us assume that France and Russia seal our land frontiers, then the only trade route left open to us is through Switzerland and Aus- tria — a condition of affairs which would aggravate difficul- ties at home, and should stimulate us to carry on the war with increased vigour. In any case, when war threatens we must lose no time in preparing a road on which we can import the most essential foodstuffs and raw materials, and also export, if only in small quantities, the surplus of our industrial products. Such measures cannot be made on the spur of the moment. They must be elaborated in peace- time, and a definite department of the Government must be responsible for these preparations. The Ministry of Commerce would obviously be the appropriate department, and should, in collaboration with the great commercial houses, prepare the routes which our commerce must fol- low in case of war. There must be a sort of commercial mobilization. These suggestions indicate the preliminary measures to be adopted by us in the eventuality of a war with England. We should at first carry on a defensive war, and would therefore have to reckon on a blockade of our coasts, if we succeed in repelling the probable English attack. Such a blockade can be carried out in two ways. Eng- land can blockade closely our North Sea coast, and at the i6o GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR same time bar the Danish straits, so as to cut off com- munications with our Baltic ports; or she can seal up on the one side the Channel between England and the Con- tinent, on the other side the open sea between the North of Scotland and Norway, on the Peterhead-Ekersund line, and thus cripple our oversea commerce and also control the Belgo-Dutch, Danish, and Swedish shipping. A close blockade in the first case would greatly tax the resources of the English fleet. According to the view of English experts, if a blockade is to be maintained perma- nently, the distance between the base and the blockading line must not exceed 200 nautical miles. Since all the Eng- lish naval ports are considerably farther than this from our coast, the difficulties of carrying on the blockade will be enormously increased. That appears to be the reason why the estuary at Harwich has recently been transformed into a strong naval harbour. It is considered the best harbourage on the English coast, and is hardly 300 nautical miles from the German coast. It offers good pos- sibilities of fortification, and safe ingress and egress in time of war. The distance from the German ports is not, however, very material for purposes of blockade. The English, if they planned such a blockade, would doubtless count on acquiring bases on our own coast, perhaps also on the Dutch coast. Our task therefore is to prevent such attempts by every means. Not only must every point which is suitable for a base, such as Heligoland, Borkum, and Sylt, be fortified in time of peace, but all attempts at land- ing must be hindered and complicated by our fleet. This task can only be fulfilled by the fleet in daytime by sub- marines ; by night torpedo-boats may co-operate, if the land- ing forces are still on board. Such close blockade offers various possibilities of dam- aging the enemy, if the coast fortifications are so constructed with a view to the offensive that the fleet may rally under their protection, and thus gain an opportunity of advancing _ from their stations for offensive operations. Such possibilities exist on our north coast, and our efforts must be turned towards making the most varied use of them. We must endeavour by renewed and unexpected THE NEXT NAVAL WAR l6l attacks, especially by night, partly with submarines and torpedo-boats, partly with battleships, to give the block- ading fleet no breathing-time, and to cause it as much loss as possible. We must not engage in a battle with superior hostile forces, for it is hardly possible at sea to discontinue a fight, because there is no place whither the loser can withdraw from the effect of the enemy's guns. An engagement, once begun, must be fought out to the end. And appreciable damage can be inflicted on the en- emy only if a bold attack on him is made. It is only pos- sible under exceptionally favourable circumstances — such, for example, as the proximity of the fortified base — to abandon a fight once begun without very heavy losses. It might certainly be practicable, by successful reconnoitring, to attack the enemy repeatedly at times when he is weak- ened in one place or another. Blockade demands naturally a certain division of forces, and the battle-fleet of the at- tacking party, which is supposed to lie behind the farthest lines of blockade and observation, cannot always hold the high seas in full strength. The forces of the defending party, however, lie in safe anchorages, ready to sally out and fight. Such a blockade might, after all, be very costly to the attacking party. We may therefore fairly assume that the English would decide in favour of the second kind. At all events, the harbour constructions, partly building, partly projected, at Rosyth and Scapa Flow, were chosen with an eye to this line of blockade. It would entail in the north the barring of a line about 300 nautical miles long, a scheme quite feasible from the military aspect. Only a small force is required to seal up the Channel, as the navigation route is very narrow. In addition to all this, the great English naval depots — ^Dover, Portsmouth, Portland, and Plymouth — are situated either on the line of blockade or immediately behind it. Besides, every ad- vance against this line from the north is flanked by Sheer- ness and Harwich, so that a retreat to the German coast might be barred. The conditions for the northern line of blockade will be no less favourable when the projected harbour works are finished. The blockading fleet finds. i62 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR therefore, a base in the great harbour of Rosyth, while a cruiser squadron might lie in support off the Orkney Isles. Every attacking fleet from the German north coast will be unhesitatingly attacked on the flank from Rosyth and Sheerness, and cut off from its line of retreat. It is thus almost impossible, owing to the English superiority, to inflict any serious damage on the blockading fleet on this line, and the only course left is to advance from the Baltic against the north-eastern part of the blockading line. Here we should have a tolerably secure retreat. This ac- centuates once more the supreme importance to us of keep- ing open, at all costs, the passage through the Sound and the Great Belt. The command of these straits will not only secure the Baltic basin for us, but also keep open the sally- ports for our offensive operations against the English block- ading fleet. In spite of all the advantages which the extended sys- tem of blockade offers to the English, there are two ob- jections against it which are well worth considering from the English point of view. Firstly, it prejudices the in- terests of a number of nations whose coasts are washed by the North Sea and the Baltic, since they are included in the blockade; secondly, it compels England to break up her fleet into two or three divisions. As to the first objection, we have hinted that England will scarcely let herself be hindered in the pursuit of her own advantage by the interests of weaker third parties. It is also conceivable that some satisfactory arrangement as to the blockade can be made with the States affected. As regards the splitting up of the fleet, no especially dis- advantageous conditions are thereby produced. It is easy to reunite the temporarily divided parts, and the strength of the combined fleet guarantees the superiority of the separate divisions over the German forces at sea. Never- theless, this division of the attacking fleet gives the de- fending party the chance of attacking some detached por- tions before junction with the main body, and of inflicting loss on them, if the enemy can be deceived and sur- prised by prompt action. The demonstrations which are the ordinary tactics in war on land under such conditions THE NEXT NAVAL WAR 163 cannot be employed, owing to the facility with which the sea can be patrolled. This blockade would ultimately weaken and weary the attacking party. But it must be recognized that it is a far easier plan to carry out than the close blockade, and that it would tax the offensive powers of our fleet more severely. We should not only have to venture on attacks in far-distant waters, but must be strong enough to protect efficiently the threatened flank of our attacking fleet. After all, it is improbable that the English would have recourse to a mere blockade. The reasons which would prompt them to a rapid decision of the war have been already explained. It was shown that, in the event of their fighting in alliance with France, they would probably _at- tempt to land troops in order to support their fleet from the land side. They could not obtain a decisive result un- less they attempted to capture our naval bases — Wilhelms- haven, Heligoland, the mouth of the Elbe, and Kiel — and to annihilate our fleet in its attempt to protect these places, and thus render it impossible for us to continue the war by sea. It is equally certain that our land forces would actively operate against the English attempts at landing, and that they would afford extraordinarily important assistance to the defence of the coast, by protecting it against attacks from the rear, and by keeping open the communications with the hinterland. The success of the English attack will much depend on the strength and armament of the coast for- tifications. Such a war will clearly show their value both as purely defensive and as offensive works. Our whole future history may turn upon the impregnability of the fortifications which, in combination with the fleet, are in- tended to guard our coasts and naval bases, and should in- flict such heavy losses on the enemy that the difference of strength between the two fleets would be gradually equal- ized. Our ships, it must be remembered, can only act ef- fectively so long as our coast fortifications hold out. No proof is required that a good Intelligence system is essential to a defensive which is based on the policy of strik- ing unexpected blows. Such a system alone can guarantee i64 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the right choice of favourable moments for attack, and can give us such early information of the operative movements of the hostile fleet that we can take the requisite measures for defence, and always retreat before an attack in superior numbers. The numerical superiority of the English cruisers is so great that we shall probably only be able to guarantee rapid and trustworthy "scouting" by the help of the air- fleet. The importance of the air-fleet must not therefore be under-valued ; and steps must be taken to repel the enemy's airships, either by employing specially contrived cannons, or by attacking them directly. If it is possible to employ airships for offensive purposes also, they would support our own fleet in their contest with the superior English force by dropping explosives on the enemy's ships, and might thus contribute towards gradually restoring the equilibrium of the opposing forces. These possibilities are, however, vague. The ships are protected to some extent by their armour against such explosives as could be dropped from airships, and it is not easy to aim correctly from a balloon. But the possibility of such meth- ods of attack must be kept in mind. So far as aviation goes, the defending partly has the ad- vantage, for, starting from the German coast, our airships and flying-machines would be able to operate against the English attacking fleet more successfully than the English airships against our forts and vessels, since they would have as a base either the fleet itself or the distant English coast. Such possibilities of superiority must be carefully watched for, and nothing must be neglected which could injure the enemy; while the boldest spirit of attack and the most reckless audacity must go hand in hand with the employment of every means which mechanical skill and the science of naval construction and fortification can supply. This is the only way by which we may hope so to weaken our proud opponent, tjiat we may in the end challenge him to a decisive engagement on the open sea. In this war we must conquer, or, at any rate, not allow ourselves to be defeated, for it will decide whether we can attain a position as a World Power by the side of, and in spite of, England. THE NEXT NAVAL WAR 165 This victory will not be gained merely in the exclusive interests of Germany. We shall in this struggle, as so often before, represent the common interests of the world, for it will be fought not only to win recognition for ourselves, but for the freedom of the seas. "This was the great aim of Russia under the Empress Catherine II., of France under Napoleon I., and spasmodically down to 1904 in the last pages of her history; and the great Republic of the United States of North America strives for it with intense energy. It is the development of the right of nations for which every people craves." * In such a contest we should not stand spiritually alone, but all on this vast globe whose feelings and thoughts are proud and free will join us in this campaign against the overweening ambitions of one nation, which, in spite of all her pretence of a liberal and a philanthropic policy, has never sought any other object than personal advantage and the unscrupulous suppression of her rivals. If the French fleet — as we may expect — combines with the English and takes part in the war, it will be much more difficult for us to wage than a war with England alone. France's blue-water fleet would hold our allies in the Medi- terranean in check, and England could bring all her forces to bear upon us. It would be possible that combined fleets of the two Powers might appear both in the Mediterranean and in the North Sea, since England could hardly leave the protection of her Mediterranean interests to France alone. The prospect of any ultimately successful issue would thus shrink into the background. But we need not even then despair. On the contrary, we must fight the French fleet, so to speak, on land — i.e., we must defeat France so decisively that she would be compelled to re- nounce her alliance with England and withdraw her fleet to save herself from total destruction. Just as in 1870-71 we marched to the shores of the Atlantic, so this time again we must resolve on an absolute conquest, in order to capture the French naval ports and destroy the French naval depots. It would be a war to the knife with France, one which would, if victorious, annihilate once for all the * Schiemann. i66 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR French position as a Great Power. If France, with her falling birth-rate, determines on such a war, it is at the risk of losing her place in the first rank of European na- tions, and sinking into permanent political subservience. Those are the stakes. The participation of Russia in the naval war must also be contemplated. That is the less dangerous, since the Russian Baltic fleet is at present still weak, and cannot combine so easily as the English with the French. We could operate against it on the inner line — i.e., we could use the opportunity of uniting rapidly our vessels in the Baltic by means of the Kaiser- Wilhelm Canal; we could attack the Russian ships in vastly superior force, and, hav- ing struck our blow, we could return to the North Sea. For these operations it is of the first importance that the Danish straits should not be occupied by the enemy. If they fell into the hands of the English, all free operations in the Baltic would be almost impossible, and our Baltic coast would then be abandoned to the passive protection of our coast batteries. CHAPTER IX THE CRUCIAL QUESTION I HAVE examined the probable conditions of the next naval war in some detail, because I thought that our general political and military position can only be properly esti- mated by considering the various phases of the war by sea and by land, and by realizing the possibilities and dangers arising from the combined action of the hostile forces on our coasts and land frontiers. In this way only can the direction be decided in which our preparations for war ought to move. The considerations, then, to which the discussion about the naval war with England and her probable allies gave rise have shown that we shall need to make very great exertions to protect ourselves successfully from a hostile attack by sea. They also proved that we cannot count on an ultimate victory at sea unless we are victorious on land. If an Anglo-French army invaded North Germany through Holland, and threatened our coast defences in the rear, it would soon paralyze our defence by sea. The same argument applies to the eastern theatre. If Russian armies advance victoriously along the Baltic and co-operate with a combined fleet of our opponents, any continuation of the naval war would be rendered futile by the operations of the enemy on land. We know also that it is of primary importance to or- ganize our forces on land so thoroughly that they guarantee the possibility, under all circumstances, of our victoriously maintaining our position on the Continent of Europe. This position must be made absolutely safe before we can suc- cessfully carry on a war by sea, and follow an imperial policy based on naval power. So long as Rome was threat- 167 i68 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ened by Hannibal in Italy there could be no possible idea of empire. She did not begin her triumphal progress in history until she was thoroughly secure in her own country. But our discussion shows also that success on land can be influenced by the naval war. If the enemy succeeds in destroying our fleet and landing with strong detach- ments on the North Sea coast, large forces of the land army would be required to repel them, a circumstance widely affecting the progress of the war on the land frontiers. It is therefore vitally necessary to prepare the defence of our own coasts so well that every attack, even by superior num- bers, may be victoriously repelled. At the same time the consideration of the political po- sition presses the conviction home that in our preparations for war there must be no talk of a gradual development of our forces by sea and land such as may lay the lightest possible burden on the national finances, and leave ample scope for activity in the sphere of culture. The cru- cial point is to put aside all other considerations, and to prepare ourselves with the utmost energy for a war which appears to be imminent, and will decide the whole future of our politics and our civilization. The consideration of the broad Hues of the world policy and of the political aspirations of the individual States showed that the posi- tion of affairs everywhere is critical for us, that we live at an epoch which will decide our place as a World Power or our downfall. The internal disruption of the Triple Alliance, as shown clearly by the action of Italy towards Turkey, threatens to bring the crisis quickly to a head. The period which destiny has allotted us for concentrating our forces and preparing ourselves for the deadly struggle may soon be passed. We must use it, if we wish to be mindful of the warning of the Great Elector, that we are Germans. This is the point of view from which we must carry out our preparations for war by sea and land. Thus only can we be true to our national duty. I do not mean that we should adopt precipitately meas- ures calculated merely for the exigencies of the moment. All that we undertake in the cause of military efficiency THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 169 must meet two requirements: it must answer the pressing questions of the present, and aid the development of the future. But we must find the danger of our position a stimulus to desperate exertions, so that we may regain at the eleventh hour something of what we have lost in the last years. Since the crucial point is to safeguard our much-threat- ened position on the continent of Europe, we must first of all face the serious problerh of the land war — by what means we can hope to overcome the great numerical su- periority of our enemies. Such superiority will certainly exist if Italy ceases to be an active member of the Triple Alliance, whether nominally belonging to it, or politically going over to Irredentism. The preparations for the naval war are of secondary importance. The first essential requirement, in case of a war by land, is to make the total fighting strength of the nation available for war, to educate the entire youth of the country in the use of arms, and to make universal service an existing fact. The system of universal service, born in the hour of need, has by a splendid development of strength liberated us from a foreign yoke, has in long years of peace edu- cated a powerful and well-armed people, and has brought us victory upon victory in the German wars of unification. Its importance for the social evolution of the nation has been discussed in a separate chapter. The German Empire would to-day have a mighty political importance if we had been loyal to the principle on which our greatness was founded. France has at the present day a population of some 40,000,000; Russia in Europe, with Poland and the Cau- casus, has a population of 140,000,000. Contrasted with this, Germany has only 65,000,000 inhabitants. But since the Russian military forces are, to a great extent, hampered by very various causes and cannot be employed at any one time or place, and are also deficient in military value, a German army which corresponded to the population would be certainly in a position to defend itself successfully against its two enemies, if it operated resolutely on the inner line, even though England took part in the war. I70 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Disastrously for ourselves, we have become disloyal to the idea of universal military service, and have apparently definitely discontinued to carry it out effectively. The coun- try where universal service exists is now France. With us, indeed, it is still talked about, but it is only kept up in pretence, for in reality 50 per cent., perhaps, of the able- bodied are called up for training. In particular, very little use has been made of the larger towns as recruiting-grounds for the army. In this direction some reorganization is required which will energetically combine the forces of the nation and create a real army, such as we have not at the present time. Unless we satisfy this demand, we shall not long be able to hold our own against the hostile Powers. Although we recognize this necessity as a national duty, we must not shut our eyes to the fact that it is impossible in a short time to make up our deficiencies. Our peace army cannot be suddenly increased by 150,000 men. The necessary training staff and equipment would not be forth- coming, and on the financial side the required expenditure could not all at once be incurred. The full effectiveness of an increased army only begins to be gradually felt when the number of reservists and Landwehr is correspondingly raised. We can therefore only slowly recur to the rein- forcement of universal service. The note struck by the new Five Years Act cannot be justified on any grounds. But although we wish to increase our army on a more extensive scale, we must admit that, even if we strain our resources, the process can only work slowly, and that we cannot hope for a long time to equalize even approximately the superior forces of our opponents. We must not, therefore, be content merely to strengthen our army; we must devise other means of gaining the upper hand of our enemies. These means can only be found in the spiritual domain. History teaches us by countless examples that numbers in themselves have only been the decisive factor in war when the opponents have been equally matched otherwise, or when the superiority of the one party exceeds the proportion required by the numerical law.* In most cases * Cf. V. Bernhardi, "Vom heutigen Kriege," vol. i., chap. ii. THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 171 it was a special advantage possessed by the one party — better equipment, greater efficiency of troops, brilliant lead- ership, or more able strategy — which led to victory over the numerically superior. Rome conquered the world with inferior forces; Frederick the Great with inferior forces withstood the allied armies of Europe. Recent history shows us the victory of the numerically weaker Japanese army over a crushingly superior opponent. We cannot count on seeing a great commander at our head; a second Frederick the Great will hardly appear. Nor can we know beforehand whether our troops will prove superior to the hostile forces. But we can try to learn what will be the decisive factors in the future war which will turn the scale in favour of victory or defeat. If we know this, and prepare for war with a set purpose, and keep the essential points of view always before us, we might create a real source of superiority, and gain a start on our opponents which would be hard for them to make up in the course of the war. Should we then in the war itself follow one dominating principle of the policy which results from the special nature of present-day war, it must be possible to gain a positive advantage which may even equalize a considerable numerical superiority. The essential point is not to match battalion with bat- talion, battery with battery, or to command a number of cannons, machine guns, airships, and other mechanical con- trivances equal to that of the probable opponent ; it is foolish initiative to strain every nerve to be abreast with the en- emy in all material domains. This idea leads to a certain spiritual servility and inferiority. Rather must an effort be made to win superiority in the factors on which the ultimate decision turns. The duty of our War Department is to prepare these decisive ele- ments of strength while still at peace, and to apply them in war according to a clearly recognized principle of supe- riority. This must secure for us the spiritual and so the material advantage over our enemies. Otherwise we run the danger of being crushed by their weight of numbers. We cannot reach this goal on the beaten roads of tra- dition and habit by uninspired rivalry in arming. We 172 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR must trace out with clear insight the probable course of the future war, and must not be afraid to tread new paths, if needs be, which are not consecrated by experience and use. New goals can only be reached by new roads, and our military history teaches us by numerous instances how the source of superiority lies in progress, in conscious in- novations based on convincing arguments. The spiritual capacity to know where, under altered conditions, the de- cision must be sought, and the spiritual courage to resolve on this new line of action, are the soil in which great suc- cesses ripen. It would be too long a task in this place to examine more closely the nature of the future war, in order to develop systematically the ideas which will prove decisive in it. These questions have been thoroughly ventilated in a book recently published by me, "Vom heutigen Kriege" ("The War of To-day"). In this place I will only con- dense the results of my inquiry, in order to form a founda- tion for the further consideration of the essential questions of the future. In a future European war "masses" will be employed to an extent unprecedented in any previotis one. Weapons will be used whose deadliness will exceed all previous ex- perience. More effective and varied means of communi- cation will be available than were known in earlier wars. These three momentous factors will mark the war of the future. "Masses" signify in themselves an increase of strength, but they contain elements of weakness as well. The larger they are and the less they can be commanded by profes- sional soldiers, the more their tactical efficiency diminishes. The less they are able to live on the country during war-time, especially when concentrated, and the more they are therefore dependent on the daily renewal of food- supplies, the slower and less mobile they become. Owing to the great space which they require for their deployment, it is extraordinarily difficult to bring them into effective action simultaneously. They are also far more accessible to morally depressing influences than compacter bodies of troops, and may prove dangerous to the strategy of their THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 173 own leaders, if supplies run short, if discipline breaks down, and the commander loses his authority over the masses which he can only rule under regulated condi- tions. The increased effectiveness of weapons does not merely imply a longer range, but a greater deadliness, and there- fore makes more exacting claims on the morale of the sol- dier. The danger zone begins sooner than formerly; the space which must be crossed in an attack has become far wider; it must be passed by the attacking party creep- ing or running. The soldier must often use the spade in defensive operations, during which he is exposed to a far hotter fire than formerly; while under all circumstances he must shoot more than in bygone days. The quick firing which the troop encounters increases the losses at every incautious movement. All branches of arms hjive to suffer under these circumstances. Shelter and supplies will be more scanty than ever before. In short, while the troops on the average have diminished in value, the demands made on them have become considerably greater. Improved means of communication, finally, facilitate the handling and feeding of large masses, but tie them down to railway systems and main roads, and must, if they fail or break down in the course of a campaign, aggravate the difficulties, because the troops were accustomed to their use, and the commanders counted upon them. The direct conclusion to be drawn from these reflections is that a great superiority must rest with the troops whose fighting capabilities and tactical efficiency are greater than those of their antagonists. The commander who can carry out all operations quicker than the enemy, and can concentrate and employ greater masses in a narrow space than they can, will always be in a position to collect a numerically superior force in the decisive direction; if he controls the more effective troops, he will gain decisive successes against one part of the hos- tile army, and will be able to exploit them against other divisions of it before the enemy can gain equivalent advan- tages in other parts of the field. 174 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR Since the tactical efficiency and the morale of the troops are chiefly shown in the offensive, and are then most need- ful, the necessary conclusion is that safety only lies in of- fensive warfare. In an attack, the advantage, apart from the elements of moral strength which it brings into play, depends chiefly on rapidity of action. Inasmuch as the attacking party determines the direction of the attack to suit his own plans, he is able at the selected spot to collect a superior force against his surprised opponent. The initiative, which is the privilege of the attacking party, gives a start in time and place which is very profitable in operations and tactics. The attacked party can only equalize this advantage if he has early intimation of the intentions of the assailant, and has time to take measures which hold out promise of suc- cess. The more rapidly, therefore, the attacking General strikes his blow and gains his success, and the more capa- ble his troops, the greater is the superiority which the attack in its nature guarantees. This superiority increases with the size of the masses. If the advancing armies are large and unwieldy, and the distances to be covered great, it will be a difficult and tedious task for the defending commander to take proper meas- ures against a surprise attack. On the other hand, the prospects of success of the attacking General will be very favourable, especially if he is in the fortunate position of having better troops at his disposal. Finally, the initiative secures to the numerically weaker a possibility of gaining the victory, even when other condi- tions are equal, and all the more so the greater the masses engaged. In most cases it is impossible to bring the entire mass of a modern army simultaneously and completely into action. A victory, therefore, in the decisive direc- tion — the direction, that is, which directly cuts the arteries of the opponents — is usually conclusive for the whole course of the war, and its effect is felt in the most distant parts of the field of operations. If the assailant, therefore, can advance in this direction with superior num- bers, and can win the day, because the enemy can- not utilize his numerical superiority, there is a possibility THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 175 of an ultimate victory over the arithmetically stronger army. In conformity to this law, Frederick the Great, through superior tactical capability and striking strength, had always the upper hand of an enemy far more powerful in mere numbers. No further proof is required that the superiority of the attack increases in proportion to the rapidity with which it is delivered, and to the lack of mobility of the hostile forces. Hence the possibility of concealing one's own move- ments and damaging the effective tactics of the enemy se- cures an advantage which, though indirect, is yet very appreciable. We arrive, then, at the conclusion that, in order to se- cure the superiority in a war of the future under otherwise equal conditions, it is incumbent on us: First, during the period of preparation to raise the tactical value and capabilities of the troops as much as possible, and espe- cially to develop the means of concealing the attacking movements and damaging the enemy's tactical powers ; sec- ondly, in the war itself to act on the offensive and strike the first blow, and to exploit the manoeuvring capacity of the troops as much as possible, in order to be superior in the decisive directions. Above all, a State which has ob- jects to attain that cannot be relinquished, and is exposed to attacks by enemies more powerful than itself, is bound to act in this sense. It must, before all things, develop the attacking powers of its army, since a strategic defensive must often adopt offensive methods. This principle holds good pre-eminently for Germany. The points which I have tried to emphasize must never be lost sight of, if we wish to face the future with con- fidence. All our measures must be calculated to raise the efficiency of the army, especially in attack; to this end all else must give way. We shall thus have a central point on which all our measures can be focussed. We can make them all serve one purpose, and thus we shall be kept from going astray on the bypaths which we all too easily take if we regard matters separately, and not as forming parts of a collective whole. Much of our previous omissions and commissions would have borne a quite 176 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR different complexion had we observed this unifying principle. , The requirements which I have described as the most essential are somewhat opposed to the trend of our present efforts, and necessitate a resolute Resistance to the control- ling forces of our age. The larger the armies by which one State tries to out- bid another, the smaller will be the efficiency and tactical worth of the troops; and not merely the average worth, but the worth of each separate detachment as such. Huge armies are even a danger to their own cause. "They will be suffocated by their own fat," said General v. Bran- denstein, the great organizer of the advance of 1870, when speaking of the mass-formation of the French. The com- plete neglect of cavalry in their proportion to the whole bulk of the army has deprived the commander of the means to injure the tactical capabilities of the enemy, and to screen effectually his own movements. The necessary attention has never been paid in the course of military train- ing to this latter duty. Finally, the tactical efficiency of troops has never been regarded as so essential as it certainly will prove in the wars of the future. A mechanical notion of warfare and weak concessions to the pressure of public opinion, and often a defective grasp of the actual needs, have conduced to measures which inevitably result in an essential contradiction between the needs of the army and the actual end attained, and cannot be justified from the purely military point of view. It would be illogical and irrelevant to continue in these paths so soon as it is recognized that the desired superiority over the enemy cannot be reached on them. This essential contradiction between what is necessary and what is attained appears in the enforcement of the law of universal military service. Opinion oscillates between the wish to enforce it more or less, and the disinclination to make the required outlay, and- recourse is had to all sorts of subterfuges which may save appearances without giv- ing a good trial to the system. One of these methods is the Ersatzreserve, which is once more being frequently proposed. But the situation is by no means helped by THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 177 the very brief training which these units at best receive. This system only creates a mihtary mob, which has no capacity for serious mihtary operations. Such an insti- tution would be a heavy strain on the existing teaching personnel in the army, and would be indirectly detrimental to it as well. Nor would any strengthening of the field army be possible under this scheme, since the cadres to contain the mass of these special reservists are not ready to hand. This mass would therefore only fill up the re- cruiting depots, and facilitate to some degree the task of making good the losses. A similar contradiction is often shown in the employ- ment of the troops. Every army at the present time is divided into regular troops, who are already organized in time of peace and are merely brought to full strength in war-time, and new formations, which are only organized on mobilization. The tactical value of these latter varies much according to their composition and the age of the units, but is always much inferior to that of the regular troops. The Landwehr formations, which were employed in the field in 1870-71, were an example of this, notwith- standing the excellent services which they rendered, and the new French formations in that campaign were totally ineffective. The sphere of activity of such troops is the second line. In an offensive war their duty is to secure the railroads and bases, to garrison the conquered terri- tory, and partly also to besiege the enemies' fortresses. In fact, they must discharge all the duties which would otherwise weaken the field army. In a defensive war they will have to undertake the local and mainly passive defence, and the support of the national war. By acting at first in this limited sphere, such new formations will gradually become fitted for the duties of the war, and will acquire a degree of offensive strength which certainly cannot be reckoned upon at the outset of the war; and the less ade- quately such bodies of troops are supplied with columns, trains, and cavalry, the less their value will be. Nevertheless, it appears to be assumed by us that, in event of war, troops will be partly available in the first line, and that decisive operations may be entrusted to 178 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR them. Reserves and regulars are treated as equivalent pieces on the board, and no one seems to suppose that some are less effective than others. A great danger lies in this mechanical conception. For operations in the field we must employ, wherever possible, regulars only, and rather limit our numbers than assign to inferior troops tasks for which they are inade- quate. We must have the courage to attack, if necessary, with troops numerically inferior but tactically superior and more efficient; we must attack in the consciousness that tactical striking power and eiBciency outweigh the advantages of greater numbers, and that with the immense modern armies a victory in the decisive direction has more bearing on the ultimate issue than ever before. The decision depends on the regular troops, not on the masses which are placed at their side on mobilization. The commander who acts on this principle, and so far re- stricts himself in the employment of masses that he pre- serves the complete mobility of the armies, will win a strong advantage over the one whose leader is burdened with inferior troops and therefore is handicapped generally, and has paid for the size of his army by want of efficiency. The mass of reserves must, therefore, be employed as sub- sidiary to the regular troops, whom they must relieve as much as possible from all minor duties. Thus used, a superiority in the numbers of national reserves will secure an undoubted superiojity in the actual war. It follows directly from this argument that we must do our best to render the regular army strong and efficient, and that it would be a mistake to weaken them unneces- sarily by excessive drafts upon their personnel with the object of making the reserves tactically equal to them. This aim may sometimes be realized ; but the general level of efficiency throughout the troops would be lowered. Our one object must therefore be to strengthen our regular army. An increase of the peace footing of the standing army is worth far more than a far greater number of badly trained special reservists. It is supremely im- portant to increase the strength of the officers on the establishment. The stronger each unit is in peace, the THE CRUCIAL QUESTION 179 more efficient will it become for war, hence the vital im- portance of aiming at quality, not quantity. Concentra- tion, not dilution, will be our safeguard. If we wish to encourage the enforcement of universal service by strength- ening the army, we must organize new peace formations, since the number of professional officers and sub-officers will be thus increased. This step is the more necessary because the present available cadres are insufficient to receive the mass of able-bodied recruits and to provide for their thorough training. The gradual enforcement of universal military service hand in hand with an increase of the regular army is the first practical requirement. We shall now consider how far the tactical value of the troops, the efficiency of the army, the cavalry, and the screening service can be im- proved by organization, equipment, and training. I must first point out a factor which lies in a different sphere to the questions already discussed, but has great importance in every branch of military activity, especially in the offensive, which requires prompt original action — I mean the importance of personality. From the Commander-in-Chief, who puts into execution the conceptions of his own brain under the pressure of responsibility and shifting fortune, and the Brigadier, who must act independently according to a given general scheme ; to the dispatch rider, surrounded with dangers, and left to his own resources in the enemy's country, and the youngest private in the field fighting for his own hand, and striving for victory in the face of death; everywhere in the wars of to-day, more than in any other age, per- sonality dominates all else. The effect of mass tactics has abolished all close formations of infantry, and the indi- vidual is left to himself. The direct influence of the su- perior has lessened. In the strategic duties of the cavalry, which represent the chief activity of that arm, the patrol riders and orderlies are separated more than before from their troop and are left to their own responsibility. Even in the artillery the importance of independent action will be more clearly emphasized than previously. The battle- fields and area of operations have increased with the masses i8o GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR employed. The Commander-in-Chief is far less able than ever before to superintend operations in various parts of the field; he is forced to allow a greater latitude to his subordinates. These conditions are very prominent in at- tacking operations. When on the defensive the duty of the individual is mainly to hold his ground, while the commander's princi- pal business is to utilize the reserves. On the offensive, however, the conditions change from moment to moment, according to the counter-movements of the enemy, which cannot be anticipated, and the success or failure of the attacking troops. Even the individual soldier, as the fight fluctuates, must now push on, now wait patiently until the reinforcements have come up ; he will often have to choose for himself the objects at which to fire, while never losing touch with the main body. The offensive makes very varied calls on the commander's qualities. Ruse and strategy, bold- ness and unsparing energy, deliberate judgment and rapid decision, are alternately demanded from him. He must be competent to perform the most opposite duties. All this puts a heavy strain on personality. It is evident, then, that the army which contains the greatest number of self-reliant and independent person- alities must have a distinct advantage. This object, there- fore, we must strive with every nerve to attain: to be superior in this respect to all our enemies. And this object can be attained. Personality can be developed, especially in the sphere of spiritual activity. The reflective and critical powers can be improved by continuous exercise; but the man who can estimate the conditions under which he has to act, who is master of the element in which he has to work, will certainly make up his mind more rapidly and more easily than a man who faces a situation which he does not grasp. Self-reUance, boldness, and imper- turbability in the hour of misfortune are produced by knowledge. This is shown everywhere. We see the awk- ward and shy recruit ripen into a clear-headed smart sergeant; and the same process is often traced among the higher commands. But where the mental development is insufficient for the problems which are to be solved, the THE CRUCIAL QUESTION i8i personality fails at the moment of action. The elegant guardsman Bourbaki collapsed when he saw himself con- fronted with the task of leading an army whose conditions he did not thoroughly grasp. General Chanzy, on the other hand, retained his clear judgment and resolute determina- tion in the midst of defeat. Thus one of the essential tasks of the preparations for war is to raise the spiritual level of the army and thus indirectly to mould and ele- vate character. Especially is it essential to develop the self-reliance and resourcefulness of those in high com- mand. In a long military life ideas all too early grow stereotyped and the old soldier follows traditional trains of thought and can no longer form an unprejudiced opinion. The danger of such development cannot be shut out. The stiff and uniform composition of the army which doubles its moral powers has this defect : it often leads to a one-sided development, quite at variance with the many-sidedness of actual realities, and arrests the growth of personality. Some- thing akin to this was seen in Germany in the tentative scheme of an attack en masse. United will and action are essential to give force its greatest value. They must go hand in hand with the greatest spiritual independence and resourcefulness, capable of meeting any emergency and solving new problems by original methods. It has often been said that one man is as good as an- other; that personality is nothing, the type is everything; but this assertion is erroneous. In time of peace, when sham reputations flourish and no real struggle winnows the chaff from the corn, mediocrity in performance is enough. But in war, personality turns the scale. Re- sponsibility and danger bring out personality, and show its real worth, as surely as a chemical test separates the pure metal from the dross. That army is fortunate which has placed men of this kind in the important posts during peace-time and has kept them there. This is the only way to avoid the dangers which a one-sided routine produces, and to break down ' that red-tapism which is so prejudicial to progress and suc- cess. It redounds to the lasting credit of William I. that for the highest and most responsible posts, at any rate, i82 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR he had already in time of peace made his selection from among all the apparently great men around him; and that he chose and upheld in the teeth of all opposition those who showed themselves heroes and men of action in the hour of need, and had the courage to keep to their own self-selected paths. This is no slight title to fame, for, as a rule, the unusual rouses envy and distrust, but the cheap, average wisdom, which never prompted action, ap- pears as a refined superiority, and it is only under the pressure of the stern reality of war that the truth of Goethe's lines is proved: "Folk and thrall and victor can Witness bear in every zone: Fortune's greatest gift to man Is personality alone." CHAPTER X ARMY ORGANIZATION I NOW turn to the discussion of some questions of organiza- tion, but it is not my intention to ventilate all the needs and aims connected with this subject that occupy our mili- tary circles at the present time. I shall rather endeavour to work out the general considerations which, in my opinion, must determine the further development of our army, if we wish, by consistent energy, to attain a superiority in the directions which will certainly prove to be all-important in the next war. It will be necessary to go into details only on points which are especially noteworthy or require some explanation. I shall obviously come into opposition with the existing state of things, but nothing is further from my purpose than to criticize them. My views are based on theoretical requirements, while our army, from certain definitely presented beginnings, and under the influence of most different men and of changing views, in the midst of financial difficulties and political disputes, has, by fits and starts, grown up into what it now is. It is, in a cer- tain sense, outside criticism; it must be taken as some- thing already existing, whose origin is only a subject for a subsequent historical verdict. But the further expansion of our army belongs to the future, and its course can be directed. It can follow well-defined lines, in order to become efficient, and it is politically most important that this object should be realized. Therefore I shall not look back critically on the past, but shall try to serve the future. The guiding principle of our preparations for war must be, as I have already said, the development of the greatest fighting strength and the greatest tactical efficiency, in order i83 i84 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR through them to be in a position to carry on an offensive war successfully. What follows will, therefore, fall nat- urally under these two heads. Fighting strength rests partly, as already said, on the training (which will be discussed later), the arming, and the personnel, partly on the com- position of the troops, and, therefore, in the case of line regiments, with which we chiefly have to deal, since they are the real field troops, on the strength of their peace estab- lishment. It was shown in the previous chapter how essen- tial it is to have in the standing army not only the necessary cadres ready for the new formations, but to make the sepa- rate branches so strong that they can easily be brought up to full strength in war-time. The efficiency and character of the superiors, the officers and the non-commissioned officers, are equally weighty fac- tors in the value of the troops. They are the professional supporters of discipline, decision, and initiative, and, since they are the teachers of the troops, they determine their intellectual standard. The number of permanent officers on the establishment in peace is exceedingly small in pro- portion to their duties in the training of the troops and to the demands made of them on mobilization. If we re- flect how many officers and non-commissioned officers from the standing army must be transferred to the new forma- tions in order to vitalize them, and how the modern tac- tical forms make it difficult for the superior officer to assert his influence in battle, the numerical inadequacy of the ex- isting personnel is clearly demonstrated. This applies mainly to the infantry, and in their case, since they are the decisive arm, a sufficient number of efficient officers is essential. All the more important is it, on the one hand, to keep the establishment of officers and non-commissioned officers in the infantry at full strength, and, on the other hand, to raise the efficiency of the officers and non-com- missioned officers on leave or in the reserve. This latter is a question of training, and does not come into the present discussion. The task of keeping the establishments at adequate^ strength is, in a sense, a financial question. The amount^ of the pay and the prospects which the profession holds ARMY ORGANIZATION 185 out for subsequent civil posts greatly affect the body of non-commissioned officers, and therefore it is important to keep step with the general increase in prices by improved pecuniary advantages. Even for the building up of the corps of officers, the financial question is all-important. The career of the officer offers to-day so little prospect of success and exacts such efficiency, and self-devotion from the individual that he will not long remain in the service, attractive as it is, if the financial sacrifices are so high as they now are. The infantry officer especially must have a better position. Granted that the cavalry arid mounted artillery officers incur greater expenses for the keep of their horses than the infantry officer has to pay, the military duties of the latter are by far the most strenuous and re- quire a very considerable outlay on clothing. It would be, in my opinion, expedient to give the infantry officer more pay than the cavalry and artillery officers, in order to make service in that arm more attractive. There is a rush nowa- days into the mounted arm, for which there is a plethora of candidates. These arms will always be well supplied with officers. Their greater attractiveness must be coun- terbalanced by special advantages offered by the infantry service. By no other means can we be sure of having suffi- cient officers in the chief arm. If the fighting strength in each detachment depends on its composition and training, there are other elements be- sides the tactical value of the troops which determine the effectiveness of their combined efforts in action ; these are first the leadership, which, however, depends on conditions which are beyond calculation, and secondly the numerical proportion of the arms to each other. Disregarding pro- visionally the cavalry, who play a special role in battle, we must define the proportion which artillery must bear to infantry. With regard to machine guns, the idea that they can to some extent replace infantry is quite erroneous. Machine guns are primarily weapons of defence. In attack they can only be employed under very favourable conditions, and then strengthen only one factor of a successful attack — the fire-strength — while they may sometimes hinder that im- i86 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR petuous forward rush which is the soul of every attack. Hence, this auxihary weapon should be given to the in- fantry in limited numbers, and employed mainly on the de- fensive fronts, and should be often massed into large units. Machine-gun detachments should not overburden the marching columns. The relation of infantry to artillery is of more importance. Infantry is the decisive arm. Other arms are exclusively there to smooth their road to victory, and support their action directly or indirectly. This relation must not be merely theoretical; the needs of the infantry must ulti- mately determine the importance of all other fighting in- struments in the whole army. ' If we make this idea the basis of our argument, the following is the result. Infantry has gained enormously in defensive power owing to modern weapons. The attack requires, therefore, a far greater superiority than ever be- fore. In addition to this, the breadth of front in action has greatly increased in consequence of the former close tactical formations having been broken up through the in- crease of fire. This refers only to the separate detach- ment, and does not justify the conclusion that in the future fewer troops will cover the same spaces as before. This assumption applies at the most to defence, and then only in a limited sense. In attack the opposite will probably be the case. The troops must therefore be placed more deeply en echelon than in the last wars. Now, the average breadth of the front in attack must regulate the allotment of artillery to infantry. No definite proportion can be set- tled; but if the theoretical calculation be compared with the experiences of the last wars, conclusions may be ob- tained which will most probably prove appropriate. No more than this can be expected in the domain of military science. If we agree to the above-mentioned proportion of breadth and depth in an infantry attack, we shall be driven to in- sist on a reduction of artillery as compared with the past; but should we think that modern artillery helps the attack, especially by indirect fire, we must advocate, from the stand- point of offensive warfare, an increase of the artillery. ARMY ORGANIZATION 187 Actual war experiences alone can find the true middle path between these two extremes. If the frontal development of the artillery of a modern army corps, or, better still, two divisions, be regarded from the point of view that the guns cannot advance in con- nected line, but that only the specially adapted parts of the field can be used for artillery development, the conclusion is certain that by such frontal extension the infantry is re- duced to a covering line for the artillery. In forming this opinion we must not assume the normal strength of the infantry, but take into account that the strength of the in- fantry in war rapidly melts away. If we estimate the com- panies on the average at two-thirds of their proper strength, we shall be above rather than below the real figures. Such infantry strength will, of course, be sufficient to defend the position taken up by the artillery, but it is hardly enough to carry out, in that section of the field, a decisive attack, which, under present conditions, requires greater numbers and depth than before. In this connection it is very instructive to study the sec- ond part of the Franco-German War, and the Boer War, as well as the Manchurian campaign. Some of the German infantry had in the first-named pe- riod extraordinarily diminished in numbers ; companies of 120 men were not rare. The artillery, on the contrary, had remained at its original strength. The consequence naturally was that the powers of the Germans on the offen- sive grew less and the battles and skirmishes were not so decisive as in the first part of the war. This condition would have shown up more distinctly against an enemy of equal class than in the contest with the loosely-compacted, raw French levies. In the former case the oflFensive would have been impracticable. The strong artillery, under the exist- ing conditions, no doubt gave great support to the weak infantry; but an unbiassed opinion leads to the conclusion that, under the then existing proportion of the arms to each other, the infantry was too weak to adopt energetic offen- sive tactics against a well-matched enemy. This is irre- sistibly proved if we consider what masses of infantry were needed at Worth and St. Privat, for instance, in spite of the i88 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR support of very superior artillery, in order to defeat a weaker enemy of equal class. Again, in South Africa, the overwhelming superiority of the English in artillery was never able to force a victory. In Manchuria the state of things was very instructive. Numerically the Russian artillery was extraordinarily superior to the enemy's, and the range of the Russian field guns was longer than that of the Japanese; nevertheless, the Japanese succeeded in beating an enemy stronger in in- fantry also, because, in the decisive directions of attack, they were able to unite superior forces of infantry and ar- tillery, while the Russian artillery was scattered along the whole of their broad front. The lesson of this war is that, apart from the close re- lation of the arms to each other in the separate units, the co-operation of these units must be looked at, if the strength of the two sister arms is to be appropriately de- termined. The requirement that each separate tactical unit should be made equal or superior in artillery to the corresponding hostile unit is thoroughly mechanical, as if in war division always fought against division and corps against corps ! Superiority at the decisive point is the crucial test. This superiority is attained by means of an unexpected concen- tration of forces for attack, and there is no reason why the superiority in artillery should not also be brought about in this way. If by superior tactical skill two army corps, each with 96 guns, combine against a hostile army which brings 144 guns into action, that signifies a superiority of 48 guns and a double superiority in infantry. If it is assumed that on both sides the army corps is armed with 144 guns, and that in consequence of this the tactical superiority has be- come so slight that neither side can claim a superiority in one direction, then equal forces meet, and chance de- cides the day. Since the Japanese were tactically more efficient than their enemy and took the offensive, they were enabled to unite the superior forces in the most de- cisive directions, and this advantage proved far greater than the numerical superiority of the Russian army as a whole. ARMY ORGANIZATION 189 If we look at the whole matter we shall come to the conclusion that the artillery, if it is not a question of pure defence, need never occupy within a line of battle so much ground that the concentration of a considerably superior force of infantry for attack is rendered doubtful. In this respect we have, in our present organization, already ex- ceeded the expedient proportion between the two arms in favour of the artillery. The conclusion is that this latter arm never need, within the separate divisions, be made so strong that the attacking capacities of the army are thereby prejudiced. This is the decisive point. Any ex- cess in artillery can be kept on the battlefield in reserve when space is restricted; if the attacking efficiency of the troops is reduced, then artillery becomes a dead weight on the army instead of an aid to victory. It is far more important to be able to unite superior forces for a de- cisive attack than to meet the enemy with equally matched forces along the whole front. If we observe this prin- ciple, we shall often be weaker than the enemy on the less important fronts; this disadvantage may be partly counterbalanced by remaining on the defensive in such a position. It becomes a positive advantage, if, owing to an overpowering concentration of forces, vic- tory is won at the decisive point. This victory cancels all the failures which may have been recorded else- where. The operative superiority of an enemy is determined by the greater marching capacity of the troops, by the rapid and systematic working of the communications with the rear, and, above all, by the length of the columns of the operating troops. Under the modern system of colossal armaments, an army, especially if in close formation, can- not possibly live on the country; it is driven to trust to daily food-supplies from the rear. Railways are used as far as possible to bring up the supplies; but from the rail- head the communication with the troops must be main- tained by columns of traction waggons and draught animals, which go to and fro between the troops, the rearward magazines, and the railhead. Since traction waggons are restricted to made roads, the direct communication with I90 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the troops must be kept up by columns of draught ani- mals, which can move independently of the roads. The waggons of provisions, therefore, which follow the troops, and are filled daily, must come up with them the same day, or there will be a shortage of food. This is only possible if the troop column does not exceed a certain length and starts at early morning, so that the transport waggons, which, at the end of the march, must be driven from the rear to the head of the column, can reach this before the beginning of the night's rest. The fitness of an army for attack can only be maintained if these sup- plies are uninterrupted; there must also be a sufficient quantity of tinned rations and provisions which the sol- diers can carry with them. If the length of the columns exceeds the limit here laid down, the marches must be proportionately shortened. If unusually lengthy marches are made, so that the provision carts cannot reach the troops, days of rest must be interposed, to regulate the supply. Thus the capacity of an army to march and to carry out operations is directly dependent on the possi- bility of being' fed from the rear. A careful calculation, based on practical experiences, shows that, in order to average 20 to 22 kilometres a day — the minimum distance required from an army — ^no column on a road ought to exceed a length of about 25 kilometres. This considera- tion determines the depth of the army corps on the march, since in an important campaign and when massing for battle troops seldom march in smaller bodies than a corps. This calculation, by which the conditions of modern war are compulsorily affected, makes it highly necessary that the system of supplies and rations should be carefully or- ganized. The restoration of any destroyed railways, the construction of light railways, the organization of columns of motor transport waggons and draught animals, must be prepared by every conceivable means in time of peace, in order that in war-time the railroads may follow as closely as possible on the track of the troops, and that the columns may maintain without interruption continuous com- munications between the troops and the railhead. In order ARMY ORGANIZATION 191 to keep this machinery permanently in working order, and to surmount any crisis in bringing up supplies, it is highly advisable to have an ample stock of tinned rations. This stock should, in consideration of the necessary mass-con- centration, be as large as possible. Care must be taken, by the organization of trains and columns, that the stock of tinned provisions can be quickly renewed. This would be best done by special light columns, which are attached to the army corps outside the organization of provision and transport columns, and follow it at such a distance, that, if necessary, they could be soon pushed to the front by forced or night marches. There is naturally some reluctance to increase the trains of the army corps, but this necessity is unavoidable. It is further to be observed that the columns in question would not be very long, since they would mainly convey condensed foods and other provisions compressed into the smallest space. An immense apparatus of train formations, railway and telegraph corps, and workmen must be got ready to secure the efficiency of a modern army with its millions. This is absolutely necessary, since without it the troops in modern warfare would be practically unable to move. It is far more important to be ahead of the enemy in this respect than in any other, for there lies the possibility of massing a superior force at the decisive point, and of thus defeating a stronger opponent. However careful the preparations, these advantages can only be attained if the troop columns do not exceed the maximum strength which can be fed from the rear, if the necessary forward movement is carried out. Everything which an army corps requires for the war must be kept within these limits. Our modern army corps without the heavy artillery of the field army corresponds roughly to this requirement. But should it be lengthened by a heavy howitzer battalion, with the necessary ammunition columns, it will consider- ably exceed the safe marching depth — if, that is, the nec- essary advance-guard distance be included. Since, also, the infantry is too weak in proportion to the space re- quired by the artillery to deploy, it becomes advisable, in 192 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the interests both of powerful attack and of operative effi- ciency, within the separate troop organizations to strengthen the numbers of the infantry and reduce those of the artillery. In addition to the length of the column, the arrangement of the division is very important for its tactical efficiency. This must be such as to permit the most varied employ- ment of the troops and the formation of reserves without the preliminary necessity of breaking up all the units. This requirement does not at all correspond to our tra- ditional organization, and the man to insist upon it vig- orously has not yet appeared, although there can be no doubt as to the inadequacy of the existing tactical organi- zation, and suitable schemes have already been drawn up by competent officers. The army corps is divided into two divisions, the divi- sion into two infantry brigades. All the brigades consist of two regiments. The formation of a reserve makes it very difficult for the commander to fix the centre of gravity of the battle according to circumstances and his own judg- ment. It is always necessary to break up some body when a reserve has to be formed, and in most cases to reduce the officers of some detachment to inactivity. Of course, a certain centre of gravity for the battle may be obtained by assigning to one part of the troops a wider and to the other a narrower space for deployment. But this proce- dure in no way replaces a reserve, for it is not always possible, even in the first dispositions for the engagement, to judge where the brunt of the battle will be. That de- pends largely on the measures taken by the enemy and the course of the battle. Napoleon's saying, "Je m'engage et puis je vols," finds its application, though to a lessened extent, even to-day. The division of cavalry brigades into two regiments is simply a traditional institution which has been thoughtlessly perpetuated. It has not been realized that the duties of the cavalry have completely changed, and that brigades of two regiments are, in addition to other disadvantages, too weak to carry these duties out. This bisecting system, by restricting the freedom of ac- ARMY ORGANIZATION 193 tion, contradicts the most generally accepted military principles. The most natural formation is certainly a tripartition of the units, as is found in an infantry regiment. This sys- tem permits the separate divisions to fight near each other, and leaves room for the withdrawal of a reserve, the formation of a detachment, or the employment of the sub- divisions in lines (Treffen), for the principle of the wing attack must not be allowed to remain merely a scheme. Finally, it is the best formation for the offensive, since it allows the main body of the troops to be employed at a single point in order to obtain a decisive result there. A special difficulty in the free handling of the troops is produced by the quite mechanical division of the artillery, who bring into action two kinds of ordnance — cannons and howitzers. These latter can, of course, be used as cannons, but have special functions which are not always required. Their place in the organization, however, is precisely the same as that of the cannons, and it is thus very difficult to employ them as their particular character demands. The object in the whole of this organization has been to make corps and divisions equal, and if possible superior, to the corresponding formations of the enemy by distrib- uting the batteries proportionately according to numbers among the divisions. This secured, besides, the undeni- able advantage of placing the artillery directly under the orders of the commanders of the troops. But, in return, it robbed the commanding General of the last means secured by the organization of enforcing his tactical aims. He is now forced to form a reserve for himself out of the artil- lery of the division, and thus to deprive one division at least of half its artillery. If he has the natural desire to with- draw for himself the howitzer section, which is found in one division only, the same division must always be sub- jected to this reduction of its strength, and it is more than problematical whether this result always fits in with the tactical position. It seems at least worth while considering whether, under these circumstances, it would not be a more appropriate arrangement to attach a howitzer section to each division. 194 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR The distribution of the heavy field howitzers is another momentous question. It would be in accordance with the principles that guide the whole army to divide them equally among the army corps. This arrangement would have much in its favour, for every corps may find itself in a position where heavy howitzer batteries can be profitably employed. They can also, however, be combined under the command of the General-in-Chief, and attached to the second line of the army. The first arrangement offers, as has been said, many advantages, but entails the great dis- advantage that the line of march of the army corps is dan- gerously lengthened by several kilometres, so that no course is left but either to weaken the other troops of the corps or to sacrifice the indispensable property of tactical effi- ciency. Both alternatives are inadmissible. On the other hand, since the employment of heavy howitzers is by no means necessary in every engagement, but only when an attack is planned against a strongly-posted enemy, it may be safely assumed that the heavy howitzers could be brought up in time out of the second line by a night march. Be- sides, their mobility renders it possible to detach single batteries or sections, and on emergency to attach them to an army corps temporarily. There is a prevalent notion that the heavy howitzers are principally used to fight the enemy's field artillery, and therefore must be on the spot in every engagement. They have even been known to stray into the advance guard. I do not approve of this idea. The enemy's field artillery will fire indirectly from previously masked positions, and in such case they cannot be very successfully attacked by heavy howitzers. It seems to me quite unjustifiable, with the view of attaining this problematic object, to burden the march- ing columns permanently with long unwieldy trains of artil- lery and ammunition, and thus to render their effectiveness doubtful. No doubt the Japanese, who throughout the war contin- ually increased their heavy field howitzers, ultimately at- tached artillery of that sort to every division. The experi- ences of that war must not, however, be overestimated or generalized. The conditions were quite sui generis. The ARMY ORGANIZATION 195 Japanese fought on their whole front against fortified posi- tions strengthened by heavy artillery, and as they attacked the enemy's line in its whole extension, they required on their side equally heavy guns. It should be noticed that they did not distribute their very effective 12-centimetre field howitzers along the whole front, but, so far as I can gather, assigned them all to the army of General Nogi, whose duty was to carry out the decisive enveloping move- ment at Mukden. The Japanese thus felt the need of con- centrating the effect of their howitzers, and as we hope we shall not imitate their frontal attack, but break through the enemy's front, though in a different way from theirs, the question of concentration seems to me very important for us. Under these circumstances it will be most advantageous to unite the heavy batteries in the hand of the Commander- in-Chief. They thus best serve his scheme of offence. He can mass them at the place which he wishes to make the decisive point in the battle, and will thus attain that end most completely, whereas the distribution of them among the army corps only dissipates their effectiveness. His heavy batteries will be for him what the artillery reserves are for the divisional General. There, where their mighty voice roars over the battlefield, will be the deciding struggle of the day. Every man, down to the last private, knows that. I will only mention incidentally that the present organi- zation of the heavy artillery on a peace footing is unsatis- factory. The batteries which in war are assigned to the field army must in peace also be placed under the orders of the corps commanders (Truppenfuhrer) if they are to become an organic part of the whole. At present the heavy artillery of the field army is placed under the general-in- spection of the foot artillery, and attached to the troops only for purposes of manoeuvres. It thus remains an iso- lated organism so far as the army goes, and does not feel itself an integral part of the whole. A clear distinction between field artillery and fortress artillery would be more practical. This view seems at first sight to contradict the require- 196 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR ment that the heavy batteries should form a reserve in the hands of the Commander-in-Chief. As the armies do not exist in peace-time, and manoeuvres are seldom carried out in army formation, the result of the present organization is that the tactical relations of the heavy artillery and the other troops are not sufficiently understood. This disad- vantage would be removed if heavy artillery were assigned permanently to each army corps. This would not pre- vent it being united in war-time in the hands of the army leaders. On the contrary, they would be used in manoeuvres in relation to the army corps in precisely the same sense as they would be in war-time in relation to the armies. The operations of the army in the enemy's countries will be far more effective if it has control of the railways and roads. That implies not merely the restoration of rail- roads that may have been destroyed, but the rapid capture of the barrier forts and fortresses which impede the advance of the army by cutting off the railway communications. We were taught the lesson in 1870-71 in France how far defective railway communications hindered all operations. It is, therefore, of vital importance that a corps should be available, whose main duty is the discharge of these necessary functions. Until recently we had only one united corps of pioneers, which was organized alike for operations in the field and for siege operations, but these latter have recently been so much developed that that system can no longer supply an adequate technical training for them. The demands made by this department of warfare, on the one hand, and by the duties of pioneering in the field on the other, are so extensive and so essentially different that it seems quite impracticable to train adequately one and the same corps in both branches during two years' service. The chief functions of the field pioneer are bridge- building, fortifying positions, and supporting the infantry in the attack on fortified places. The most important part of the fortress pioneer's duties consists in sapping, and, above all, in mining, in preparing for the storming of per- manent works, and in supporting the infantry in the actual ARMY ORGANIZATION 197 storm. The army cannot be satisfied with a superficial training for such service; it demands a most thorough- going previous preparation. Starting from this point of view, General v. Beseler, the late Inspector-General of Fortresses and Pioneers, who has done inestimable service to his country, laid the founda- tions of a new organization. This follows the idea of the field pioneers and the fortress pioneers — a rudimentary training in common, followed by separate special training for their special duties. We must continue on these lines, and develop more particularly the fortress pioneer branch of the service in better proportion to its value. In connection with the requirements already discussed, which are directly concerned with securing and maintain- ing an increase of tactical efficiency, we must finally men- tion two organizations which indirectly serve the same pur- pose. These diminish the tactical efficiency of the enemy, and so increase our own; while, by reconnoitring and by screening movements, they help the attack and make it pos- sible to take the enemy unawares — an important condition of successful ofifensive warfare. I refer to the cavalry and the air-fleet. The cavalry's duties are twofold. On the one hand, they must carry out reconnoissances and screening movements, on the other hand they must operate against the enemy's communications, continually interrupt the regular renewal of his supplies, and thus cripple his mobility. Every military expert will admit that our cavalry, in pro- portion to the war-footing of the army, and in view of the responsible duties assigned them in war, is lamentably weak. This disproportion is clearly seen if we look at the probable wastage on the march and in action, and realize that it is virtually impossible to replace these losses adequately, and that formations of cavalry reserves can only possess a very limited efficiency. Popular opinion considers cavalry more or less superfluous, because in our last wars they certainly achieved comparatively little from the tactical point of view, and because they cost a great deal. There is a general tendency to judge cavalry by the standard of 1866 and 1870-71. It cannot be 198 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR emphasized too strongly that this standard is misleading. On the one hand, the equipment was then so defective that it crippled the powers of the mounted man in the most important points; on the other hand, the employ- ment of the cavalry was conducted on a wholly antiquated system. It was, consequently, not armed for independent movements. What they then did must not be compared with what will be required from them in the future. In wars in which mounted forces were really effective, and not hampered in their movements by preconceived notions (as in the American War of Secession and the Boer War), their employment has been continuously extended, since the great value of their operative mobility was convinc- ingly shown, especially in Africa, notwithstanding all mod- ern weapons. These are the wars which must be studied in order to form a fair opinion. They will convince us that an increase of our cavalry is absolutely imperative. It will, of course, only be valuable when the divisions of the army cavalry are equipped with columns and trains in such a way that they can operate independently. The effective- ness of the cavalry depends entirely on the fulfilment of this condition. It is also imperatively necessary, when the measures of our opponents are considered, to strengthen the fighting force of the cavalry by an adequate addition of cyclist sections. This is the more requisite, as, on the one hand, the attack on the enemy's communications must expect vigorous opposition, and, on the other hand, the screening duties, which are even more important for the offensive than the reconnoissances, are likely to be specially successful if cavalry and cyclists combine. Again, an increased strength of cavalry is undeniably re- quired to meet the reconnoitring and screening troops of the enemy. Besides the strengthening of this arm and the addition of cyclists, another organization is required if the cavalry are to do useful service. Brigades of two regiments and divisions of six regiments are in war-time, where all depends on decisive action, far too small, as I have repeatedly dem- onstrated without being refuted. The brigades must in war be three regiments strong. The ARMY ORGANIZATION 199 strength of the divisions and corps may vary according to the requirements of the time being. Just because our cavalry is so weak, the organization must be in a high degree elastic. There can, besides, be no doubt on the point that the side which commands the services of the stronger cavalry, led on modern lines, will have at the out- set quite inestimable advantage over the enemy, which must make itself felt in the ultimate issue. I might remark incidentally that the mounted batteries which are attached to the army cavalry must be formed with four guns each, so that the division with its three parts would have the control of three batteries, and, if necessary, a battery could be assigned to each brigade. That is an old suggestion which the Emperor William I. once made, but it has never yet been considered. It is not with cavalry usually a question of protracted artillery engagements, but of utilizing momentary opportunities; the greatest mobility is required together with the most many- sided efficiency and adaptability. There can obviously, therefore, be no question of a systematic combination with the artillery. Such a thing can only be of value in the case of cavalry when it is important to make a decisive attack. The reconnoissance and screening duties of the cavalry must be completed by the air-fleet. Here we are dealing with something which does not yet exist, but we can foresee clearly the great part which this branch of military science will play in future wars.* It is therefore necessary to point out in good time those aspects of it which are of special weight in a military sense, and therefore deserve peculiar consideration from the technical side. The first requirement is that airships, in addition to sim- plicity of handling and independence of weather, should possess a superior fighting strength, for it is impossible ef- fectively to screen the movements of the army and to open the road for reconnoissances without attacking successfully the hostile flying-machines and air cruisers. * The efficiency and success of the Italian aviators in Tripoli are noteworthy, but must not be overvalued. There were no opponents in the air. 200 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR The power to fight and destroy the hostile airships must be the leading idea in all constructions, and the tactics to be pursued must be at once thought out in order that the airships may be built accordingly, since tactics will _ be essentially dependent on the construction and the technical effectiveness. These reciprocal relations must be borne in mind from the first, so as to gain a distinct advantage over our opponents. If the preceding remarks are epitomized, we have, apart from the necessity of enforcing universal service, quite a long list of proposed changes in organization, the adop- tion of which will considerably improve the efficiency of our army. The whole organization must be such that the column length of the army corps does not exceed the size which allows a rapid advance, though the supplies are exclusively drawn from magazine depots. In case of the larger formations, and especially of the army corps as being the tactical and operative unit, the principle of tripartition must be observed. The infantry must be, in proportion to the artillery, sub- stantially strengthened. The artillery must be organized in such a way that it is possible to concentrate the fire of the howitzers where required without breaking up the units. The cavalry must be increased, strengthened by cyclist sections, and so organized as to insure their efficiency in war. The formation of reinforcements, especially for supplies, must be so elaborated that, on a rapid advance, an efficient system of feeding the troops entirely from magazine depots can be maintained. The air-fleet must be energetically developed with the object of making it a better fighting machine than that of the enemy. Finally, and this is the most important thing, we must strain every nerve to render our infantry tactically the best in the world, and to take care that none but thoroughly efficient formations are employed in the decisive field war. The fulfilment of all these requirements on the basis of ARMY ORGANIZATION 201 our present organization offers haturally great difficulties and can hardly be carried out. It is impossible to imagine a German Reichstag which, without the most extreme pres- sure of circumstances, could resolve to make for the army the sacrifices called for by our political condition. The temptation to shut the eyes to existing dangers and to limit political aims in order to repudiate the need of great sacrifices is so strong that men are sure to succumb to it, especially at a period when all political wisdom seems summed up in the maintenance of peace. They comfort themselves with the hope that the worst will not happen, although history shows that the mis- ery produced by weakness has often surpassed all expec- tations. But even if the nation can hardly be expected to under- stand what is necessary, yet the War Department must be asked to do their utmost to achieve what is possible, and not to stop short out of deference to public opinion. When the future of a great and noble nation is at stake there is no room for cowardice or inaction. Nothing must be done, as unhappily has too often been the case, which runs counter to the principles of a sound military organization. The threefold division of the larger formations could be effected in various ways. Very divergent ideas may be entertained on this subject, and the difficulties of carrying out the scheme need extensive consideration. I will make a few proposals just by way of illustration. One way would be to split up the army corps into three divisions of three infantry regiments each, and to abolish the superfluous intermediate system of brigades. Another proposal would be to form in every corps one of the pres- ent divisions of three brigades, so that the extra brigade combined with the light field howitzers and the Jager bat- talion would constitute in event of war a separate detach- ment in the hands of the commanding General. This last arrangement could be carried out comparatively easily under our present system, but entails the drawback that the sys- tem of twofold division is still in force within the brigades and divisions. The most sweeping reform, that of dividing 202 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the corps into three divisions, would have the advantage of being thorough and would allow the separate groups to be employed in many more ways. The relations between the infantry and the artillery can naturally oiily be improved gradually by the strengthen- ing of the infantry through the enforcement of universal service. The assignment of a fifth brigade to each army corps would produce better conditions than exist at pres- ent. But so soon as the strengthening of the infantry has gone so far that new army corps must be created, the artil- lery required for them can be taken from existing formations, and these can be diminished by this means. It will conduce to the general efficiency of the army if the artillery destined for each army corps is to some degree limited, without, however, reducing their total. Care must be taken that only the quantity of ammunition nec- essary for the first stages of the battle should be habitually carried by the columns of the troops engaged. All that exceeds this must be kept in the rear behind the com- missariat waggons, and brought forward only on necessity — that is to say, when a battle is in prospect. The cer- tainty of being able to feed the troops and thus maintain the rapidity of the advance is far more important than the more or less theoretical advantage of having a large quantity of amrriunition close at hand during the ad- vance. The soldiers will be inclined to be sparing of ammu- nition in the critical stages of the fight, and will not be disposed to engage with an unseen enemy, who can only be attacked by scattered fire; the full fire strength will be reserved for the deciding moments of the engagement. Then, however, the required ammunition will be on the spot, in any event, if it is brought forward by stages in good time. A suitable organization of the artillery would insure that each division had an equal number of batteries at its dis- posal. The light field howitzers, however, must be attached to a division in such a way that they may form an artillery corps, without necessarily breaking up the formations of the division._ The strength of the artillery must be regu- lated according to that of the infantry, in such a way that ARMY ORGANIZATION 203 the entire marching depth does not exceed some 25 kilo- metres. The heavy field howitzers, on the other hand, must in peace be placed under the orders of the General commanding, and in event of war be combined as "army" artillery. It would, perhaps, be advisable if the cavalry were completely detached from the corps formation, since the main body is absolutely independent in war as "army" cavalry. The regiments necessary for service with the infantry could be called out in turn during peace-time for manoeuvres with mixed arms, in order to be trained in the work of divisional cavalry, for which purpose gar- rison training can also be utilized. On the other hand, it is, I know, often alleged that the Truppenfuhrer are better trained and learn much if the cavalry are under their orders; but this objection does not seem very pertinent. Another way to adapt the organization better to the efficiency of the arm than at present would be that the four cavalry regiments belonging to each army corps should be combined into a brigade and placed under the commanding General. In event of mobilization, one regiment would be withdrawn for the two divisions, while the brigade, now three regiments strong, would pass over to the "army" cavalry. The regiment intended for divi- sional cavalry would, on mobilization, form itself into six squadrons and place three of them at the service of each division. If the army corps was formed into three divisions, each division would only be able to receive two squadrons. In this way, of course, a very weak and inferior divisional cavalry would be formed; the service in the field would suffer heavily under it; but since it is still more im- portant to have at hand a sufficient army cavalry than a divisional cavalry, quite competent for their difficult task, there is, for the time being, no course left than to raise the one to its indispensable strength at the cost of the other. The blame for such a makeshift, which seriously injures the army, falls upon those who did not advocate an increase of the cavalry at the proper moment. The 204 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR whole discussion shows how absolutely necessary such an increase is. If it were effected, it would naturally react upon the organization of the arm. This would have to be adapted to the new conditions. There are various ways in which a sound and suitable development of the cavalry can be guaranteed. The absolutely necessary cyclist sections must in any case be attached to the cavalry in peace, in order that the two arms may be drilled in co-operation, and that the cav- ali-y commander may learn to make appropriate use of this important arm. Since the cyclists are restricted to fairly good roads, the co-operation presents difficulties which require to be surmounted. The views which I have here tried to sketch as aspects of the organization of the army can be combated from several standpoints. In military questions, particularly, dif- ferent estimates of the individual factors lead to very dif- ferent results. I believe, however, that my opinions result with a certain logical necessity from the whole aspect of affairs. It is most essential, in preparing for war, to keep the main leading idea fixed and firm, and not to allow it to be shaken by questions of detail. Each special require- ment must be regarded as part of that general combination of things which only really comes into view in actual war- fare. The special standpoint of a particular arm must be rejected as unjustified, and the departmental spirit must be silenced. Care must be taken not to overestimate the technical and material means of power in spite of their undoubted importance, and to take sufficient account of the spiritual and moral factors. Our age, which has made such progress in the conquest of nature, is in- clined to attach too much importance to this dominion over natural forces; but in the last resort, the forces that give victory are in the men and not in the means which they employ. A profound knowledge of generalship and a self-reliant personality are essential to enable the war preparations to be suitably carried out; under the shifting influence of different aims and ideas the "organizer of victory" will ARMY ORGANIZATION 205 often feel doubtful whether he ought to decide this way or that. The only satisfactory solution of such doubts is to deduce from a view of warfare in its entirety and its varied phases and demands the importance of the separate co-operating factors. "For he who grasps the problem as a whole Has calmed the storm that rages in his soul." CHAPTER XI TRAINING AND EDUCATION Our first object, then, must be to organize and transform the German army into the most eflfective tool of German policy, and into a school of health and strength for our nation. We must also try to get ahead of our rivals by superiority of training, and at the same time to do full justice to the social requirements of the army by exerting all our efforts towards raising the spiritual and moral level of the units and strengthening their loyal German feelings. Diligence and devotion to military education are no longer at the present day sufficient to make our troops superior to the enemy's, for there are men working no less devotedly in the hostile armies. If we wish to gain a start there is only one way to do it: the training must break with all that is antiquated and proceed in the spirit of the war of the future, which will impose fresh requirements on the troops as well as on the officers. It is unnecessary to go into the details about the train- ing in the use of modern arms and technical contrivances : this follows necessarily from the introduction of these means of war. But if we survey the sphere of training as a whole, two phenomena of modern warfare will strike us as peculiarly important with regard to it ; the heightened demands which will be made on individual character and the employment of "masses" to an extent hitherto unknown. The necessity for increased individualization in the case of infantry and artillery results directly from the character of the modern battle; in the case of cavalry it is due to the nature of their strategical duties and the need of sometimes fighting on foot like infantry; in the case of 206 TRAINING AND EDUCATION 207 leaders of every grade, from the immensity of the armies, the vast extent of the spheres of operation and fields of battle, and the difficulty, inseparable from all these con- ditions, of giving direct orders. Wherever we turn our eyes to the wide sphere of modern warfare, we encounter the necessity of independent action — by the private soldier in the thick of the battle, or the lonely patrol in the midst of the enemy's country, as much as by the leader of an army, who handles huge hosts. In battle, as well as in operations, the requisite uniformity of action can only be attained at the present time by independent co-operation of all in accordance with a fixed general scheme. The employment of "masses" requires an entirely altered method of moving and feeding the troops. It is one thing to lead roo,ooo or perhaps 200,000 men in a rich coun- try seamed with roads, and concentrate them for a battle — it is another to manoeuvre 800,000 men on a scene of war stripped bare by the enemy, where all railroads and bridges have been destroyed by modern explosives. In the first case the military empiric may be equal to the occasion; the second case demands imperatively a scien- tifically educated General and a staff who have also studied and mastered for themselves the nature of modern warfare. The problems of the future must be solved in advance if a commander wishes to be able to operate in a modern theatre of war with certainty and rapid decision. The necessity of far-reaching individualization then is universally recognized. To be sure, the old traditions die slowly. Here and there an undeserved importance is still attached to the march past as a method of education, and drilling in close formation is sometimes practised more than is justified by its value. The cavalry is not yet com- pletely awakened from its slumbers, and performs the time- honoured exercises on the parade-grounds with great strain on the horses' strength, oblivious of the existence of long- range quick-firing guns, and as if they were still the old arm which Napoleon or Frederick the Great commanded. Even the artillery is still haunted by some more or less 2o8 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR antiquated notions; technical and stereotyped ideas still sometimes restrict the freedom of operations ; in the prac- tice of manoeuvres, artillery duels are still in vogue, while sufficient attention is not given to concentration of fire with a definite purpose, and to co-operation with the in- fantry. Even in theory the necessity of the artillery duel is still asserted. Many conservative notions linger on in the heavy artillery. Obsolete ideas have not yet wholly disappeared even from the new regulations and ordinances where they block the path of true progress; but, on the whole, it has been realized that greater individual respon- sibility and self-reliance must be encouraged. In this re- spect the army is on the right road, and if it continues on it and continually resists the temptation of restricting the independence of the subordinate for the sake of outward appearance, there is room for hope that grad- ually the highest results will be a,ttained, provided that competent military criticism has been equally encouraged. In this direction a healthy development has started, but insufficient attention has been given to the fact that the main features of war have completely changed. Although in the next war men will have to be handled by millions, the training of our officers is still being conducted on lines which belong to a past era, and virtually ignore modern conditions. Our manoeuvres more especially follow these lines. Most of the practical training is carried out in manoeuvres of brigades and divisions — i. e., in formations which could never occur in the great decisive campaigns of the future. From time to time — financial grounds un- fortunately prevent it being an annual affair — a corps manoeuvre is held, which also cannot be regarded as train- ing for the command of "masses." Sometimes, but rarely, several army corps are assembled for combined training under veteran Generals, who soon afterwards leave the service, and so cannot give the army the benefit of any experience which they may have gained. It cannot, of course, be denied that present-day manoeu- vres are extraordinarily instructive and useful, especially for the troops themselves; but they are not a direct train- TRAINING AND EDUCATION 209 ing for the command of armies in modern warfare. Even the so-called "Imperial Monceuvres" only cor- respond, to a very slight extent, to the requirements of modern war, since they never take account of the com- missariat arrangements, and seldom of the arrange- ments for sheltering, etc., the troops which would be essential in real warfare. A glance at the Imperial Manoeuvres of 1909 is sufficient to show that many of the operations could never have been carried out had it been a question of the troops being fed under the con- ditions of war. It is an absolute necessity that our officers should learn to pay adequate attention to these points, which are the rule in warfare and appreciably cramp the power of operations. In theory, of course, the commissariat waggons are always taken into account; they are conscientiously mentioned in all orders, and in theory are posted as a commissariat reserve between the corps and the divisions. That they would in reality all have to circulate with a pendulum-like frequency be- tween the troops and the magazines, that the magazines would have to be almost daily brought forward or sent farther back, that the position of the field bakeries is of extreme importance — these are all points which are inconvenient and troublesome, and so are very seldom con- sidered. In great strategic war-games, too, even in a theatre of war selected in Russia which excludes all living upon the country, the commissariat arrangements are rarely worked out in detail ; I should almost doubt whether on such occa- sions the possibility of exclusive "magazine feeding" has ever been entertained. Even smaller opportunities of being acquainted with these conditions are given to the officer in ordinary manoeuvres, and yet it is extremely difficult on purely theoretical lines to become familiar with the machin- ery for moving and feeding a large army and to master the subject efficiently. The friction and the obstacles which occur in reality cannot be brought home to the student in theory, and the routine in managing such things cannot be learnt from books. 210 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR These conditions, then, are a great check on the free- dom of operations, but, quite apart from the commis- sariat question, the movements of an army present con- siderable difficulties in themselves, v^^hich it is obviously very hard for the inexperienced to surmount. When, in 1870, some rather complicated army movements were contemplated, as on the advance to Sedan, it was at once seen that the chief commanders were not masters of the situation, that only the fertility of the theatre of war and the deficient attacking powers of the French allowed the operations to succeed, although a man like Moltke was at the head of the army. All these matters have since been thoroughly worked out by our Gen- eral Staff, but the theoretical labours of the General Staff are by no means the common property of the army. On all these grounds I believe that first and foremost our manoeuvres must be placed on a new footing corre- sponding to the completely altered conditions, and that we must leave the beaten paths of tradition. The troops must be trained — as formerly — to the highest tactical effi- ciency, and the army must be developed into the most effective machine for carrying out operations ; success in modern war turns on these two pivots. But the leaders must be definitely educated for that war on the great scale which some day will have to be fought to a finish. The paths we have hitherto followed do not lead to this goal. All methods of training and education must be in accord- ance with these views. I do not propose to go further into the battle training of infantry and cavalry in this place, since I have already discussed the question at length in special treatises.* In the case of the artillery alone, some remarks on the principles guiding the technical training of this arm seem necessary. The demands on the fighting-efficiency of this arm — as is partly expressed in the regulations — may be summed *v. Bernhardi: "Taktik und Ausbildung der Infanterie," 1910; "Unsere Kavallerie im nachsten Krieg," 18^ ; "Reiterdienst," igio. TRAINING AND EDUCATION 211 up as follows: all preconceived ideas and theories as to its employment must be put on one side, and its one guiding principle must be to support the cavalry or infantry at the decisive point. This principle is universally acknowl- edged in theory, but it ought to be more enforced in prac- tice. The artillery, therefore, must try more than ever to bring their tactical duties into the foreground and to make their special technical requirements subservient to this idea. The ever-recurring tendency to fight chiefly the enemy's artillery must be emphatically checked. On the defensive it will, of course, often be necessary to engage the attacking artillery, if there is any prospect of success, since this is the most dreaded enemy of the infantry on the defensive ; but, on the attack, its chief duty always is to fire upon the enemy's infantry, where pos- sible, from masked positions. The principle of keeping the artillery divisions close together on the battlefield and combining the fire in one direction, must not be carried to an extreme. The artillery certainly must be employed on a large plan, and the chief in command must see that there is a concentration of effort at the decisive points; but in particular cases, and among the varying incidents of a battle, this idea will be carried out less effectively by uniformity of orders than by explaining the general scheme to the subordinate officers, and leaving to them the duty of carrying it out. Accordingly, it is important that the personal initiative of the subordinate officer should be recognized more fully than before; for in a crisis such independent action is indispensable. The great extent of the battlefields and the natural endeavour to select wooded and irregular ground for the attack will often force the artillery to advance in groups or in lines one behind the other, and to attempt, notwithstanding, united action against the tactically most important objective. This result is hard to attain by a centralization of command, and is best real- ized by the independent action of tactically trained sub- ordinates. This is not the place to enter into technical details, and I will only mention some points which appear especially important. 212 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR The Bz shell (Granatschuss) should be withdrawn as unsuitable, and its use should not form part of the train- ing. It requires, in order to attain its specific effect against rifle-pits, such accurate aiming as is very seldom possible in actual warfare. No very great value should be attached to firing with shrapnel. It seems to be retained in France and to have shown satisfactory results with us ; but care must be taken not to apply the experiences of the shooting-range directly to serious warfare. No doubt its use, if successful, prom- ises rapid results, but it may easily lead, especially in the "mass" battle, to great errors in calculation. In any case, practice with Az shot is more trustworthy, and is of the first importance. The Az fire must be reserved principally for the last stages of an offensive engagement, as was lately laid down in the regulations. Care must be taken generally not to go too far in refine- ments and complications of strategy and devices. Only the simplest methods can be successfully applied in battle; this fact must never be forgotten. The important point in the general training of the artil- lery is that text-book pedantries — for example, in the re- ports on shooting — ;should be relegated more than hitherto to the background, and that tactics should be given a more prominent position. In this way only can the artillery do really good service in action ; but the technique of shoot- ing must not be neglected in the reports. That would mean rejecting the good and the evil together, and the tendency to abolish such reports as inconvenient must be distinctly opposed. Under this head, attention must be called to the inde- pendent manoeuvres of artillery regiments and brigades in the country, which entail large expenditure, and, in fact, do more harm than good. They must, in my opinion, be abandoned or at least considerably modified, since their possible use is not in proportion to their cost and their drawbacks. They lead to pronounced tactics of position (Stellungstaktik) which are impracticable in war; and the most important lesson in actual war — the timely employ- TRAINING AND EDUCATION 213 ment of artillery within a defined space and for a definite object without any previous reconnoitring of the country in search of suitable positions for the batteries — can never be learnt on these manoeuvres. They could be made more instructive if the tactical limits were marked by troops; but the chief defect in these manoeuvres — viz., that the artillery is regarded as the decisive arm — cannot be thus remedied. The usual result is that favourable artillery posi- tions are searched for, and that they are then adhered to under some tactical pretence. After all, only a slight shifting of the existing centre of gravity may be necessary, so far as the development of the fighting tactics of the various branches of the service is concerned, in order to bring them into line with modern conditions. If, however, the troops are to be educated to a higher efficiency in operations, completely new ground must be broken, on which, I am convinced, great results and an undoubted superiority over our opponents can be attained. Considerable difficulties will have to be sur- mounted, for the crucial point is to amass immense armies on a genuine war footing; but these difficulties are not, in my opinion, insurmountable. There are two chief points: first, the practice of march- ing and operations in formations at war strength, fully equipped with well-stocked magazines as on active service; and, secondly, a reorganization of the manoeuvres, which must be combined with a more thorough education of the chief commanders. As regards the first point, practice on this scale, so far as I know, has never yet been attempted. But if we con- sider, firstly, how valuable more rapid and accurate move- ments of great masses will be for the war of the future, and, secondly, what serious difficulties they involve, we shall be rewarded for the attempt to prepare the army systematically for the discharge of such duties, and thus to win an unquestioned advantage over our supposed antagonist. The preparation for the larger manoeuvres of this sort can naturally also be carried out in smaller formation. It is, moreover, very important to train large masses of 214 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR troops — ^brigades and divisions — in long marches across country by night and day with pioneer sections in the vanguard, in order to gain experience for the technique of such movements, and to acquire by practice a certain security in them. Training marches with full military stores, etc., in col- umns of 20 to 25 kilometres depth would be still more valu- able, since they correspond to the daily needs of real war- fare. Should it not be possible to assemble two army corps in such manoeuvres, then the necessary depth of march can be obtained by letting the separate detachments march with suitable intervals, in which case the intervals must be very strictly observed. This does not ever really reproduce the conditions of actual warfare, but it is useful as a makeshift. The waggons for the troops would have to be hired, as on manoeuvres, though only partly, in order to save expense. The supplies could be brought on army transport trains, which would represent the pioneer con- voys {Verpftegungsstaifel), and would regulate their pace accordingly. Marching merely for training purposes in large forma- tions, with food supplied from the field-kitchens during the march, would also be of considerable value provided that care is taken to execute the march in the shortest pos- sible time, and to replace the provisions consumed by bring- ing fresh supplies forward from the rear; this process is only properly seen when the march, with supplies as if in war, is continued for several days. It is naturally not enough to undertake these manoeuvres once in a way; they must be a permanent institution if they are intended to develop a sound knowledge of marching in the army. Finally, flank marches must be practised, some- times in separate columns, sometimes in army formation. The flank marches of separate columns will, of course, be useful only when they are combined with practice in feeding an army as if in war, so that the commissariat columns march on the side away from the enemy, in a parallel line, and are thence brought up to the troops at the close of the march. Flank marches in army formation will have some value, even apart from any training in TRAINING AND EDUCATION 215 the commissariat system, since the simultaneous crossing of several marching columns on parallel by-roads is not an easy manoeuvre in itself. But this exercise will have its full value only when the regulation commissariat waggons are attached, which would have to move with them and furnish the supplies. I also consider that operative movements in army forma- tion extending over several days are desirable. Practice must be given in moving backwards and forwards in the most various combinations, in flank movements, and in doubling back, the lines of communication in the rear being blocked when necessary. Then only can all the difficulties which occur on such movements be shown one by one, and it can be seen where the lever must be applied in order to remove them. In this way alone can the higher commanders gain the necessary certainty in conduct- ing such operations, so as to be able to employ them under the pressure of a hostile attack. An army so disciplined would, I imagine, acquire a pronounced superiority over any opponent who made his first experiments in such opera- tions in actual war. The major strategic movements on both sides in the Franco-German War of 1870-71 sufficiently showed that. I recognize naturally that all exercises on this scale would cost a great deal of money and could never all be carried out systematically one after the other. I wished, however, to ventilate the subject, firstly, in order to recommend all officers in high command to study the points of view under consideration — a thing they much neg- lect to do ; secondly, because it might be sometimes profit- able and possible to carry out in practice one or other of them — at the Imperial Manoeuvres, for example, or on some other occasion. How much could be saved in money alone and applied usefully to this purpose were the above-mentioned country manoeuvres of the artillery suspended? From reasons of economy all the com- missariat waggons and columns need not actually be employed on such manoeuvres. It would be useful, how- ever, if, in addition to one detachment equipped on a war footing, the head waggons of the other groups were 2i6 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR present and were moved along at the proper distance from each other and from the detachment, which could mainly be fed from the kitchen waggon. It would thus be possible to get a sort of presentation of the whole course of the commissariat business and to acquire valuable experience. It is, indeed, extraordinarily diffi- cult to arrange such manoeuvres properly, and it must be admitted that much friction and many obstacles are got rid of if only the heads of the groups are marked out, and that false ideas thus arise which may lead to erroneous conclusions ; but under careful direction such mancEuvres would certainly not be wholly useless, especially if atten- tion is mainly paid to the matters which are really essential. They would, at any rate, be far more valuable than many small manoeuvres, which can frequently be re- placed by exercises on the large drill-grounds, than many expensive trainings in the country, which are of no real utiUty, or than many other military institutions which are only remotely connected with the object of training under active service conditions. All that does not directly promote this object must be erased from our system of education at a time when the highest values are at stake. Even then exercise in operations on a large scale cannot often be carried out, primarily because of the probable cost, and next because it is not advisable to interrupt too often the tactical training of the troops. It must be repeated in a definite cycle in each large formation, so that eventually all superior officers may have the opportunity of becoming practically . acquainted with these operations, and also that the troops may become familiarized with the modern commissariat system; but since such practical exercises must always be somewhat in- complete, they must also be worked out beforehand theoret- ically. It is not at all sufficient that the officers on the General Staff and the Intendants have a mastery of these subjects. The rank and file must be well up in them; but especially the officers who will be employed on the supply service — that is to say, the transport officers of the standing army and those officers on the furlough TRAINING AND EDUCATION 217 establishment, who would be employed as column com- manders. The practical service in the transport battalions and the duties performed by the officers of the last-mentioned cate- gory who are assigned to these battalions are insufficient to attain this object. They learn from these mainly practical duties next to nothing of the system as a whole. It would therefore be advisable that all these officers should go through a special preliminary course for this service, in which the whole machinery of the army movements would be explained to them by the officers of the General Staff and the higher transport service officers, and they would then learn by practical examples to calculate the whole movement of the columns in the most varied positions with precise regard to distances and time. This would be far more valuable for war than the many and often excessive trainings in driving, etc., on which so much time is wasted. The technical driver's duty is very simple in all columns and trains, but it is not easy to know in each position what is the crucial point, in order to be able, when occasion arises, to act independently. While, therefore, on the one hand, driving instruction must be thoroughly carried out, on the other hand, the institution of a scientific transport service course, in which, by practical examples out of military history, the import- ance of these matters can be explained, is under present circumstances an absolute necessity. I have shown else- where how necessary it is to proceed absolutely systematic- ally in the arrangements for relays of supplies, since the operative capabilities of the army depend on this system. Its nature, however, cannot be realized by the officers con- cerned like a sudden inspiration when mobilization takes place ; knowledge of its principles must be gained by study, and a proof of the complete misapprehension of the im- portance which this service has attained under modern con- ditions is that officers are supposed to be able to manage it successfully without having made in peace-time a pro- found scientific study of the matter. The transport service has advanced to a place of extraor- dinary importance in the general system of modern war- 2i8 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR fare. It should be appreciated accordingly. Every active transport service officer ought, after some years' service, to attend a scientific course; all the senior officers on the furlough establishment intended for transport service ought, as their first duty, to be summoned to attend such a course. If these educational courses were held in the autumn in the training camps of the troops, they would entail little extra cost, and an inestimable advantage would be gained with a very trifling outlay. The results of such a measure can only be fully reaUzed in war, when the superior officers also thoroughly grasp these matters and do not make demands contrary to the nature of the case, and therefore impossible to be met. They should therefore be obliged to undergo a thorough education in the practical duties of the General Staff, and not merely in leading troops in action. This reflection leads to the discussion of the momentous question how, generally, the training of the superior officers for the great war should be managed, and how the man- oeuvres ought to be reorganized with a view to the training. The essential contradiction between our obsolete method of training and the completely altered demands of a new era appears here with peculiar distinctness. A large part of our superior commanders pass through the General Staff, while part have attended at least the military academy; but when these men reach the higher positions what they learnt in their youth has long become out of date. The continuation school is missing. It can be replaced only by personal study; but there is generally insufficient time for this, and often a lack of interest. The daily duties of training troops claim all the officer's energy, and he needs great determination and love of hard work to continue vigorously his own scientific education. The result is, that comparatively few of our superior officers have a fairly thorough knowledge, much less an inde- pendently thought-out view, of the conditions of war on the great scale. This would cost dearly in real war. Ex- perience shows that it is not enough that the officers of the General Staff attached to the leader are competent to fill up this gap. The leader, if he cannot himself grasp the TRAINING AND EDUCATION 219 conditions, becomes the tool of his subordinates; he believes he is directing and is himself being directed. This is a far from healthy condition. Our present manoeuvres are, as already mentioned, only occasionally a school for officers in a strategical sense, and from the tactical point of view they do not meet modern requirements. The minor manoeuvres especially do not represent what is the most important feature in present-day warfare — i.e., the sudden concentration of larger forces on the one side and the impossibility, from space considerations, of timely counter-movements on the other. The minor manoeuvres are certainly useful in many respects. The commanders learn to form decisions and to give orders, and these are two important matters ; but the same result would follow from manoeuvres on the grand scale, which would also to some extent reproduce the modern conditions of warfare. Brigade manoeuvres especially belong to a past genera- tion, and merely encourage wrong ideas. All that the sol- diers learn from them — that is, fighting in the country — can be taught on the army drill-grounds. Divisional man- oeuvres are still of some value even to the commanders. The principles of tactical leadership in detail can be exempli- fied in them; but the first instructive manoeuvres in the modern sense are those of the army corps ; still more valu- able are the manoeuvres on a larger scale, in which several army corps are combined, especially when the operating divisions are considered part of one whole, and are com- pelled to act in connection with one grand general scheme of operation. The great art in organizing manoeuvres is to reproduce such conditions, for only in this way can the strain of the general situation and the collective mass of individual responsibility, such as exist in actual warfare, be distinctly brought home. This is a most weighty consid- eration. The superior officers must have clearly brought be- fore their eyes the limits of the possible and the impos- sible in modern warfare, in order to be trained to deal with great situations. The requirements which these reflections suggest are the restriction of small-scale manoeuvres in favour of the large 220 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR and predominantly strategical manoeuvres, and next the abolition of some less important military exercises in order to apply the money thus saved in this direction. We must subject all our resources to a single test — that they con- duce to the perfecting of a modern army. If the military drill-grounds are suitably enlarged (a rather difficult but necessary process, since, in view of the range of the artil- lery and the mass tactics, they have generally become too small) a considerable part of the work which is done in the divisional manoeuvres could be carried out on them. The money saved by this change could be devoted to the large army manoeuvres. One thing is certain: a great im- pulse must be given to the development of our manoeuvre system if it is to fulfil its purpose as formerly; in organiza- tion and execution these manoeuvres must be modern in the best sense of the word. It seems, however, quite impossible to carry out this sort of training on so comprehensive a scale that it will by itself be sufficient to educate serviceable commanders for the great war. The manoeuvres can only show their full value if the officers of every rank who take part in them have already had a competent training in theory. To encourage this preliminary training of the superior officers is thus one of the most serious tasks of an efficient preparation for war. These must not regard their duty as lying exclusively in the training of the troops, but must also be ever striving further to educate themselves and their subordinates for leadership in the great war. Strategic war games on a large scale, which in the army corps can be conducted by the commanding Generals, and in the army-inspections by the Inspectors, seem to me to be the only means by which this end can be attained. All supe- rior officers must be criticized by the standard of their efficiency in superior commands. The threads of all this training will meet in the hands of the Chief of the General Army Staff as the strategically responsible authority. It seems undesirable in any case to leave it more or less to chance to decide whether those who hold high com- mands will be competent or not fpr their posts. The TRAINING AND EDUCATION 221 circumstances that a man is an energetic commander of a division, or as General in command maintains discipline in his army corps, affords no conclusive proof that he is fitted to be the leader of an army. Military history sup- plies many instances of this. No proof is required to show that under the conditions of modern warfare the reconnoitring and screening units require special training. The possibility and the suc- cess of all operations are in the highest degree dependent on their activity. I have for years pointed out the abso- lute necessity of preparing our cavalry officers scientifically for their profession, and I can only repeat the demand that our cavalry riding-schools should be organized also as places of scientific education. I will also once more de- clare that it is wrong that the bulk of the training of the army cavalry should consist in the divisional cavalry exer- cises on the military drill-grounds. These exercises do not correspond at all to actual conditions, and inculcate quite wrong notions in the officers, as every cavalry officer in high command finds out who, having been taught on the drill-ground, has to lead a cavalry division on manoeuvres. The centre of gravity of effectiveness in war rests on the directing of operations and on the skilful transition from strategical independence to combination in attack ; the great difficulty of leading cavalry lies in these conditions, and this can no more be learnt on the drill-grounds than sys- tematic screening and reconnoissance duties. The perpetual subject of practice on the drill-grounds, a cavalry engage- ment between two divisions in close formation, will hardly ever occur in war. Any unprejudiced examination of the present conditions must lead to this result, and counsels the cavalry arm to adopt a course which may be regarded as a serious preparation for war. It is a truly remarkable fact that the artillery, which in fact, always acts only in combination with the other arms, carries out annually extensive independent manoeuvres, as if it had by itself a definite effect on the course of the campaign, while the army cavalry, which always takes the field independently, hardly ever trains by itself, but care- 222 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR fully practises that combination with infantry which is only rarely necessary in war. This clearly demonstrates the unsystematic and antiquated methods of all our training. Practice in reconnoitring and screening tactics, as well as raids on a large scale, are what is wanted for the train- ing of the cavalry. Co-operation with the air-fleet will be a further development, so soon as aviation has attained such successes that it may be reckoned as an integral factor of army organization. The airship division and the cavalry have kindred duties, and must co-operate under the same command, especially for screening purposes, which are all- important. The methods for the training of pioneers which corre- spond fully to modern requirements have been pointed out by General v. Beseler. This arm need only be developed further in the direction which this distinguished officer has indicated in order to satisfy the needs of the next war. In the field war its chief importance will be found to be in the support of the infantry in attacks on fortified posi- tions, and in the construction of similar positions. Tactical requirements must, however, be insisted upon in this con- nection. The whole training must be guided by considera- tions of tactics. This is the main point. As regards sieges, especial attention must be devoted to training the miners, since the object is to capture rapidly the outlying forts and to take the fortresses which can resist the attack of the artillery. The duties of the Army Service Corps * are clear. They must, on the one hand, be efficiently trained for the intelli- gence department, especially for the various duties "of the telegraph branch, and be ready to give every kind of assistance to the airships; on the other hand, they must look after and maintain the strategical capacities of the army. The rapid construction of railroads, espe- cially light railways, the speedy repair of destroyed lines, the protection of traffic on military railways, * Verkehrstruppen. TRAINING AND EDUCATION 223 and the utilization of motors for various purposes, are the duties for which these troops must be trained. A thorough knowledge and mastery of the essential prin- ciples of operations are indispensable qualifications in their case also. They can only meet their many-sided and all- important duties by a competent acquaintance with the methods And system of army movements on every scale. It is highly important, therefore, that the officers of the Army Service Corps should be thoroughly trained in mili- tary science. Thus in every direction we see the necessity to improve the intellectual development of the army, and to educate it to an appreciation of the close connection of the multi- farious duties of war. This appreciation is requisite, not merely for the leaders and special branches of the service; it must permeate the whole corps of officers, and to some degree the non-commissioned officers also. It will bear good fruit in the training of the men. The higher the stage on which the teacher stands, and the greater his intellectual grasp of the subject, the more complete will be his influence on the scholars, the more rapidly and suc- cessfully will he reach the understanding of his sub- ordinates, and the more thoroughly will he win from them that confidence and respect which are the firmest foun- dations of discipline. All the means employed to improve the education of our establishment of officers in the science of war and general subjects will be richly re- paid in efficient service on every other field of practical activity. Intellectual exercise gives tone to brain and character, and a really deep comprehension of war and its requirements postulates a certain philosophic mental edu- cation and bent, which makes it possible to assess the value 6i phenomena in their reciprocal relations, and to estimate correctly the imponderabilia. The effort to produce this higher intellectual standard in the officers' corps must be felt in their training from the military school onwards, and must find its expression in a school of military education of a higher class than exists at present. A military academy as such was contemplated by Scharn- 224 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR horst. To-day it has assumed rather the character of a preparatory school for the General Staff. Instruction in history and mathematics is all that remains of its former importance. The instruction in military history v/as entirely divested of its scientific character by the method of application employed, and became wholly subservient to tactics. In this way the meaning of the study of military history was obscured, and even to-day, so far as I know, the lectures on military history primarily serve purposes of directly professional education. I can- not say how far the language teaching imparts the spirit of foreign tongues. At any rate, it culminates in the examination for interpreterships, and thus pursues a directly practical end. This development was in a certain sense necessary. A quite specifically professional educa- tion of the officers of the General Staff is issential under present conditions. I will not decide whether it was there- fore necessary to limit the broad and truly academi- cal character of the institution. In any case, we need in the army of to-day an institution which gives op- portunity for the independent study of military science from the higher standpoint, and provides at the same time a comprehensive general education. I believe that the military academy could be developed into such an institution, without any necessity of abandoning the direct preparation of the officers for service on the General Staff. By the side of the military sciences proper, which might be limited in many directions, lectures on general scientific subjects might be organized, to which admission should be free. In similar lectures the great military problems might be discussed from the standpoint of military phi- losophy, and the hearers might gain some insight into the legitimacy of war, its relations to politics, the co-operation of material and imponderable forces, the importance of free personality under the pressure of necessary phenomena, sharp contradictions and violent opposition, as well as into the duties of a commander viewed from the higher stand- point. Limitation and concentration of the compulsory subjects, such as are now arranged on an educational plan in TRAINING AND EDUCATION i^S three consecutive annual courses, and the institution of free lectures on subjects of general culture, intended not only to educate officers of the General Staff, but to train men who are competent to discharge the highest military and civic duties — this is what is required for the highest military educational institution of the German army. CHAPTER XII PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR "Germany's future lies on the sea." A proud saying, which contains a great truth. If the German people wish to attain a distinguished future and fulfil their mission of civilization, they must adopt a world policy and act as a World Power. This task can only be performed if they are supported by an adequate sea power. Our fleet must be so strong at least that a war with us involves such dangers, even to the strongest opponent, that the losses, which might be expected, would endanger his position as a World Power. Now, as proved in another place, we can only stake our forces safely on a world policy if our political and military superiority on the continent of Europe be immovably estab- lished. This goal is not yet reached, and must be our first objective. Nevertheless, we must now take steps to develop by sea also a power which is sufficient for our pretensions. It is, on the one hand, indispensably necessary for the full security of our Continental position that we guard our coasts and repel oversea attacks. On the other hand, it is an absolute economic necessity for us to pro- tect the freedom of the seas — by arms if needs be — since our people depend for livelihood on the export industry, and this, again, requires a large import trade. The po- litical greatness of Germany rests not least on her flourish- ing economic life and her oversea trade. The maintenance of the freedom of the seas must therefore be always before our eyes as the object of all our naval constructions. Our efforts must not be merely directed towards the necessary repulse of hostile attacks; we must be conscious of the higher ideal, that we wish to follow an effective world 226 PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 2.27 policy, and that our naval power is destined ultimately to support this world policy. Unfortunately, we did not adopt this view at the start, when we first ventured on the open sea. Much valuable time was wasted in striving for limited and insufficient objects. The Emperor William II. was destined to be the first to grasp this question in its bearing on the world's history, and to treat it accordingly. All our earlier naval activity must be set down as fruitless. We have been busied for years in building a fleet. Most varied considerations guided our policy. A clear, definite programme was first drawn up by the great Naval Act of 1900, the supplementary laws of 1906, and the regula- tions as to the life of the ships in 1908. It is, of course, improbable that the last word has been said on the sub- ject. The needs of the future will decide, since there can be no certain standard for the naval forces which a State may require : that depends on the claims which are put forward, and on the armaments of the other nations. At first the only object was to show our flag on the sea and on the coasts on which we traded. The first duty of the fleet was to safeguard this commerce. Opposition to the great outlay thus necessitated was soon shown by a party which considered a fleet not merely superfluous for Ger- many, but actually dangerous, and objected to the plans of the Government, which they stigmatized as boundless. An- other party was content with a simple scheme of coast- protection only, and thought this object attained if some important points on the coast were defended by artillery and cheap flotillas of gunboats were stationed at various places. This view was not long maintained. All discerning persons were convinced of the necessity to face and drive back an aggressive rival on the high seas. It was recog- nized that ironclads were needed for this, since the aggressor would have them at his disposal. But this policy, it was thought, could be satisfied by half-measures. The so-called Ausfallkorvetten were sanctioned, but emphasis was laid on the fact that we were far from wishing to compete with the existing large navies, and that we should 228 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR naturally be content with a fleet of the second rank. This standpoint was soon recognized to be untenable, and there was a fresh current of feeling, whose adherents supported the view that the costly ironclads could be made super- fluous by building in their place a large number of torpedo- boats. These, in spite of their small lighting capacity, would be able to attack the strongest ironclads by well-aimed tor- pedoes. It was soon realized that this theory rested on a fallacy — that a country like the German Empire, which depends on an extensive foreign trade in order to find work and food for its growing population, and, besides, is hated everywhere because of its political and economic prosperity, could not forego a strong armament at sea and on its coasts. At last a standpoint had been reached which corresponded with actual needs. The different abortive attempts to solve the navy ques- tion in the most inexpensive manner have cost us much money and, above all, as already stated, much time; so that, at the present day, when we stand in the midst of a great crisis in the world's history, we must summon all our strength to make up for lost opportunities, and to build a thoroughly effective ocean-going fleet of warships in addi- tion to an adequate guard for our coasts. We have at last come to see that the protection of our commerce and the defence of our shores cannot possibly be the only object of such a fleet, but that it, like the land army, is an instru- ment for carrying out the political ends of the State and supporting its justifiable ambitions. There can be no ques- tion of such limited objects as protection of commerce and passive coast defence. A few cruisers are enough to pro- tect commerce in times of peace; but in war the only way to safeguard it is to defeat and, where possible, destroy the hostile fleet. A direct protection of all trade lines is obviously impossible. Commerce can only be protected in- directly by the defeat of the enemy. A passive defence of the coast can never count on permanent success. The American War of Secession, amongst others, showed that sufficiently. The object of our fleet, therefore, is to defeat our pos- sible rivals at sea, and force them to make terms, in order PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 229 to guarantee unimpeded commerce to our merchantmen and protect our colonies. It is therefore an erroneous idea that our fleet exists merely for defence, and must be built with that view. It is intended to meet our political needs, and must therefore be capable of being employed according to the exigencies of the political position ; on the offensive, when the political situation demands it, and an attack promises success; on the defensive, when we believe that more advantages can be obtained in this way. At the present day, indeed, the political grouping of the Great Powers makes a strategical offensive by sea an impossibility. We must, however, reckon with the future, and then circumstances may arise which would render possible an offensive war on a large scale. The strength which we wish to give to our fleet must therefore be calculated with regard to its probable duties in war. It is obvious that we must not merely consider the possible opponents who at the moment are weaker than we are, but rather, and principally, those who are stronger, unless we were in the position to avoid a conflict with them under all circumstances. Our fleet must in any case be so powerful that our strongest antagonist shrinks from attack- ing us without convincing reasons. If he determines to attack us, we must have at least a chance of victoriously repelling this attack — in other words, of inflicting such heavy loss on the enemy that he will decline in his own interests to carry on the war to the bitter end, and that he will see his own position threatened if he exposes him- self to these losses. This conception of our duty on the sea points directly to the fact that the English fleet must set the standard by which to estimate the necessary size of our naval prepara- tions. A war with England is probably that which we shall first have to fight out by sea ; the possibility of victoriously repelling an English attack must be the guiding principle for our naval preparations ; and if the English continuously increase their fleet, we must inevitably follow them on the same road, even beyond the limits of our present Naval Estimates. 230 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR We must not, however, forget that it will not be possible for us for. many years to attack on the open sea the far superior English fleet. We may only hope, by the com- bination of the fleet with the coast fortifications, the air- fleet, and the commercial war, to defend ourselves success- fully against this our strongest opponent, as was shown in the chapter on the next naval war. The enemy must be wearied out and exhausted by the enforcement of the blockade, and by fighting against all the expedients which we shall employ for the defence of our coast; oiir fleet, under the protection of these expedients, will con- tinually inflict partial losses on him, and thus gradually we shall be able to challenge him to a pitched battle on the high seas. These are the lines that our prepara- tion for war must follow. A strong coast fortress as a base for our fleet, from which it can easily and at any moment take the offensive, and on which the waves of the hostile superiority can break harmlessly, is the recog- nized and necessary preliminary condition for this class of war. Without such a trustworthy coast fortress, built with a view to offensive operations, our fleet could be closely blockaded by the enemy, and prevented from any offensive movements. Mines alone cannot close the navigation so effectively that the enemy cannot break through, nor can they keep it open in such a way that we should be able to adopt the offensive under all circum- stances. For this purpose permanent works are necessary which command the navigation and allow mines to be placed. I cannot decide the question whether our coast defence, which in the North Sea is concentrated in Heligoland and Borkum, corresponds to these requirements. If it is not so, then our first most serious duty must be to fill up the existing gaps, in order to create an assured base for our naval operations. This is a national duty which we dare not evade, although it demands great sacrifices from us. Even the further development of our fleet, important as that is, would sink into the background as compared with the urgency of this duty, because its only action against the English fleet whith holds out any PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 231 prospect of success presupposes the existence of some such fortress. But the question must be looked at from another aspect. The Morocco negotiations in the summer of 191 1 dis- played the unmistakable hostility of England to us. They showed that England is determined to hinder by force any real expansion of Germany's power. Only the fear of the possible intervention of England deterred us from claiming a sphere of interests of our own in Morocco, and, never- theless, the attempt to assert our unquestionable rights in North Africa provoked menacing utterances from' various English statesmen. If we consider this behaviour in connection with Eng- land's military preparations, there can be no doubt that England seriously contemplates attacking Germany should the occasion arise. The concentration of the English naval forces in the North Sea, the feverish haste to increase the English fleet, the construction of new naval stations, undisguisedly intended for action against Germany, of which we have already spoken;^ the English espionage, lately vigorously practised, on the German coasts, combined with continued attempts to enlist allies against us and to isolate us in Europe — all this can only be reasonably interpreted as a course of preparation for an aggressive war. At any rate, it is quite impossible to regard the English preparations as defensive and pro- tective measures only; for the English Government knows perfectly well that Germany cannot think of attacking Eng- land: such an attempt would be objectless from the first. Since the destruction of the German naval power lies in the distinct interests of England and her schemes for world empire, we must reckon at least with the possibility of an English attack. We must make it clear to ourselves that we are not able to postpone this attack as we wish. It has been already mentioned that the recent attitude of Italy may precipitate a European crisis ; we must make up our minds, then, that England will attack us on some pretext or other soon, before the existing balance of power, which is very favourable for England, is shifted possibly to her disadvantage. Especially, if the Unionist party 232 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR comes into power again, must we -reckon upon a strong English Imperial policy which may easily bring about war. Under these circumstances we cannot complete our armament by sea and our coast defences in peaceful leisure, in accordance with theoretical principles. On the contrary, we must strain our financial resources in order to carry on, and if possible to accelerate, the expansion of our fleet, together with the fortification of our coast. It would be justifiable, under the conditions, to meet our financial requirements by loans, if no other means can be found; for here questions of the greatest moment are at stake — questions, it may fairly be said, of existence. Let us imagine the endless misery which a protracted stoppage or definite destruction of our oversea trade would bring upon the whole nation, and, in particular, on the masses of the industrial classes who live on our export trade. This consideration by itself shows the absolute necessity of strengthening our naval forces in combina- tion with our coast defences so thoroughly that we can look forward to the decisive campaign with equanimity. Even the circumstance that we cannot, perhaps, find crews at once for the ships which we are building need not check the activity of our dockyards ; for these ships will be valuable to replace the loss in vessels which must occur in any case. The rapid completion of the Kaiser- Wilhelm Canal is of great importance, in order that our largest men-of-war may appear unexpectedly in the Baltic or in the North Sea. But it does not meet all military requirements. It is a question whether it is not expedient to obtain secure communication by a canal between the mouth of the Ems, the Bay of Jahde, and the mouth of the Elbe, in order to afford our fleet more possibilities of concentra- tion. All three waters form a sally-port in the North Sea, and it would be certainly a great advantage if our battleships could unexpectedly unite in these three places. I cannot give any opinion as to the feasibility of this scheme. If it is feasible, we ought to shirk no sacri- PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 233 fices to realize it. Such a canal might prove of decisive value, since our main prospect of success depends on our ability to break up the forces of the enemy by continuous unexpected attacks, and on our thus finding an opportunity to inflict heavy losses upon him. As regards the development of the fleet itself, we must push on the completion of our battle-fleet, which consists of ships of the line and the usual complement of large cruisers. It does not possess in its present condition an effective value in proportion to its numbers. There can be no doubt on this point. Five of the ships of the line, of the Kaiser class, are quite obsolete, and the vessels of the Wittelsbach class carry as heaviest guns only 24-centimetre cannons, which must be considered quite inadequate for a sea-battle of to-day. We are in a worse plight with re- gard to our large cruisers. The five ships of the Hansa class have no fighting value ; the three large cruisers of the Prince class (Adalbert, Friedrich Karl, Heinrich) ful- fil their purpose neither in speed, effective range, arma- ment, nor armour-plating. Even the armoured cruisers Furst Bismarck, Roon, York, Gneisenau, and Scharnhorst do not correspond in any respect to modern requirements. If we wish, therefore, to be really ready for a war, we must shorten the time allowed for building, and replace as rapidly as possible these totally useless vessels — nine large cruisers and five battleships — by new and thoroughly effec- tive ships. Anyone who regards the lowering thunder-clouds on the political horizon will admit this necessity. The English may storm and protest ever so strongly: care for our country must stand higher than all political and all financial considerations. We must create new types of battleships, which may be superior to the English in speed and fighting qualities. That is no light task, for the most modern English ships of the line have reached a high stage of perfection, and the newest English cruisers are little inferior in fighting value to the battleships proper. But superiority in individual units, together with the greatest possible readiness for war, are the only means by which a few ships can be made to do, at any rate, what is 234 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR most essential. Since the Krupp guns possess a certain advantage— which is not, in fact, very great— over the Eng- lish heavy naval guns, it is possible to gain a start m this department, and to equip our ships with superior attackmg power. A more powerful artillery is a large factor m suc- cess, which becomes more marked the more it is possible to distribute the battery on the ship in such a way that all the guns may be simultaneously trained to either side or straight ahead. Besides the battle-fleet proper, the torpedo-boats play a prominent part in strategic offence and defence alike. The torpedo-fleet, therefore— especially having regard to the crushing superiority of England— requires vigorous encouragement, and all the more so because, so far, at least, as training goes, we possess a true factor of superi- ority in them. In torpedo-boats we are, thanks to the high standard of training in the personnel and the excel- lence of construction, ahead of all other navies. We must endeavour to keep this position, especially as regards the torpedoes, in which, according to the newspaper accounts, other nations are competing with us, by trying to excel us in range of the projectile at high velocity. We must also devote our full attention to submarines, and endeavour to make these vessels more effective in attack. If we succeed in developing this branch of our navy, so that it meets the military requirements in every direction, and combines an increased radius of effectiveness with in- creased speed and seaworthiness, we shall achieve great results with these vessels in the defence of our coasts and in unexpected attacks on the enemy's squadrons. A su- perior efficiency in this field would be extraordinarily advantageous to us. Last, not least, we must devote ourselves more ener- getically to the development of aviation for naval purposes. If it were possible to make airships and flying- machines thoroughly available for war, so that they could be employed in unfavourable weather and for aggressive purposes, they might render essential services to the fleet. The air-fleet would then, as already explained in Chapter VIII., be able to report successfully, to spy out PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 235 favourable opportunities for attacks by the battle-fleet or the torpedo-fleet, and to give early notice of the approach of the enemy in superior force. It would also be able to prevent the enemy's airships from reconnoitring, and would thus facilitate the execution of surprise attacks. Again, it could repulse or frustrate attacks on naval depots and great shipping centres. If our airships could only be so largely developed that they, on their side, could undertake an attack and carry fear and destruction to the English coasts, they would lend still more effective aid to our fleet when fighting against the superior force of the enemy. It can hardly be doubted that technical improvements will before long make it possible to perform such services. A pronounced superiority of our air-fleet over the Eng- lish would contribute largely to equalize the difference in strength of the two navies more and more during the course of the war. It should be the more possible to gain a superiority in this field because our supposed enemies have not any start on us, and we can compete for the palm of victory on equal terms. Besides the campaign against the enemy's war-fleet, preparations must be carefully made in peace-time for the war on commerce, which would be especially effective in a struggle against England, as that country needs imports more than any other. Consequently great results would follow if we succeeded in disturbing the enemy's commerce and harassing his navigation. The difficulties of such an undertaking have been discussed in a previous chapter. It is all the more imperative to organize our prep- arations in such a way that the swift ships intended for the commercial war should be able to reach their scene of ac- tivity unexpectedly before the enemy has been able to block our harbours. The auxiliary cruisers must be so equipped in peace-time that when on the open sea they may assume the character of warships at a moment's notice, when ordered by wireless telegraphy to do so. A rapid mobilization is especially important in the navy, since we must be ready for a sudden attack at any time, possibly in time of peace. History tells us what to expect from the English on this head. 236 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR In the middle of peace they bombarded Copenhagen from September 2 to September 5, 1807, and carried off the Danish fleet. Four hundred houses were burnt, 2,000 damaged, 3,000 peaceful and innocent inhabitants were killed. If some explanation, though no justification, of the conduct of England is seen in the lawlessness of all conditions then existing, and in the equally ruthless acts of Napoleon, still the occurrence shows distinctly of what measures England is capable if her command of the seas is endangered. ' And this practice has not been forgotten. On July II and 12, 1882, exactly thirty years ago, Alex- andria was similarly bombarded in peace-time, and Egypt occupied by the English under the hypocritical pretext that Arabi Pasha had ordered a massacre of the foreigners. The language of such historical facts is clear. It is well not to forget them. The Russo-Japanese War also is a warning how modern wars begin; so alsoi Italy, with her political and military attack on Turkey. Turkish ships, suspecting nothing of war, were attacked and captured by the Italians. Now, it must not be denied that such a method of opening a campaign as was adopted by Japan and Italy may be jus- tified under certain conditions. The interests of the State may turn the scale. The brutal violence shown to a weak opponent, such as is displayed in the above-described Eng- lish procedure, has nothing in common with a course of action politically justifiable. A surprise attack, in order to be justified, must be made in the first place only on the armed forces of the hostile State, not on peaceful inhabitants. A further necessary preliminary condition is that the tension of the political situation brings the possibility or probability of a war clearly before the eyes of both parties, so that an expecta- tion of, and preparations for, war can be assumed. Otherwise the attack becomes a treacherous crime. If the required preliminary conditions are granted, then a political coup is as justifiable as a surprise attack in warfare, since it tries to derive advantage from an unwarrantable careless- ness of the opponent. A definite principle of right can never be formulated in this question, since everything depends PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 237 on the views taken of the position, and these may be very divergent among the parties concerned. History alone can pass a final verdict on the conduct of States. But in no case can a formal rule of right in such cases — especially when a question of life or death is depending on it, as was literally the fact in the Manchurian War as regards Japan — limit the undoubted right of the State. If Ja- pan had not obtained from the very first the absolute com- mand of the seas, the war with Russia would have been hopeless. She was justified, therefore, in employing the most extreme measures. No such interests were at stake for England either in 1807 or 1882, and Italy's proceedings in 19H are certainly doubtful from the standpoint of politi- cal morality. These examples, however, show- what we may expect from England, and we must be the more prepared to find her using this right to attack without warning, since we also may be under the necessity of using this right. Our mobilization preparations must therefore be ready for all such eventualities, especially in the period after the dismissal of the reservists. Public policy forbids any discussion of the steps that must be taken to secure that our fleet is ready for war during this time. Under all circumstances, however, our coast defences must be continuously ready for fighting, and permanently garrisoned in times of political tension. The mines must also be prepared for action without delay. The whole materiel requisite for the purpose must be on the spot ready for instant use. So, too, all measures for the protection of commerce at the mouths of our rivers and in the Kaiser Wilhelm Canal must be put in force directly the situation becomes strained. This is a mere simple precept of self-protection. We must also attach as much importance to the observation and intelligence service on our coasts in peace-time as is done in England. When we realize in their entirety the mass of prepara- tions which are required for the maintenance of our place among the Great Powers by the navy, we see that extraor- dinarily exacting demands will be made on the resources 238 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR of our people. These weigh the heavier for the moment, since the crisis of the hour forces us to quite exceptional exertions, and the expenditure on the fleet must go hand- in-hand, with very energetic preparations on land. If we do not possess the strength or the self-devotion to meet this twofold demand, the increase of the fleet must be delayed, and we must restrict ourselves to bringing our coast de- fences to such a pitch of completeness as will meet all our requirements. Any acceleration in our shipbuilding would have to be provisionally dropped. In opposition to this view, it is urged from one quarter that we should limit our fortification of the coast to what is absolutely necessary, devote all our means to developing the fleet, and lay the greatest stress on the number of the ships and their readiness for war, even in case of the reserve fleet. This view starts from the presupposition that, in face of so strong and well-equipped a fleet as the Naval Act contemplates for Germany, England would never resolve to declare war on us. It is also safe to assume that a fleet built expressly on uniform tactical principles represents a more powerful fighting force than we have to-day in an equal number of hetero- geneous battleships. I cannot myself, however, endorse this view. On the one hand, it is to be feared that the fighting strength of the hostile fleets increases quicker than that of ours; on the other hand, I believe that the general situation makes war with England inevitable, even if our naval force in the shortest time reaches its statutory strength in modern men-of-war. My view, therefore, is that we must first of all lay the solid foundation without which any successful action against the superior forces of the enemy is unthinkable. Should the coast fortifications fail to do what is expected from them, success is quite im- possible. It is, however, all the more our duty to spare no sacri- fices to carry out both objects — the enlargement of the fleet, as well as whatever may still be necessary to the perfecting of our coast defences. Though this latter point calls for the first attention, the great necessity for PREPARATION FOR THE NAVAL WAR 239 the increase of the navy admits of no doubt. If we do not to-day stake everything on strengthening our fleet, to insure at least the possibility of a successful war, and if we once more allow our probable opponent to gain a start which it will be scarcely possible to make up in the future, we must renounce for many years to come any place among the World Powers. Under these circumstances, no one who cherishes German sentiments and German hopes will advocate a policy of renunciation. On the contrary, we must try not only to prosecute simultaneously the fortification of the coast and the development of the fleet, but we must so accelerate the pace of our shipbuilding that the requirements of the Naval Act will be met by 1914 — the result quite possible according to expert opinion. The difficult plight in which we are to-day, as regards our readiness for war, is due to two causes in the past. It has been produced in the first place because, from love of the pleasures of peace, we have in the long years since the founding of the German Empire neglected to define and strengthen our place among the Powers of Europe, and to win a free hand in world politics, while around us the other Powers were growing more and more threatening. It was, in my opinion, the most serious mistake in German policy that a final settling of accounts with France was not effected at a time when the state of international affairs was favourable and success might confidently have been expected. There has, indeed,, been no lack of opportunities. We have only our policy of peace and renunciation to thank for the fact that we. are placed in this difficult position, and are confronted by the momentous choice between resigning all claim to world power or disputing this claim against numerically superior enemies. This policy somewhat resembles the supineness for which England has herself to blame, when she refused her assistance to the Southern States in the American War of Secession, and thus allowed a Power to arise in the form of the United States of North America, which already, although barely fifty years have elapsed, threatens England's own position as a World Power. But 240 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the consequences of our peace policy hit us harder than England has suffered under her former American policy. The place of Great Britain as a Great Power is far more secured by her insular position and her command of the seas than ours, which is threatened on all sides by more powerful enemies. It is true that one cannot anticipate success in any war with certainty, and there was always the possibility during the past forty years that we might not succeed in conquering France as effectually as we would have wished. This uncertainty is inseparable from every war. Neither in 1866 nor in 1870 could Bismarck foresee the degree of success which would fall to him, but he dared to fight. The greatness of the statesman is shown when at the most favourable moment he has the courage to undertake what is the necessary and, according to human calculation, the best course. Just Fate decides the issue. The second cause of our present position is to be seen in the fact that we started to build our fleet too late. The chief mistake which we have made is that, after the year 1889, when we roused ourselves to vote the Brandenburg type of ship, we sank back until 1897 into a period of de- cadence, while complete lack of system prevailed in all mat- ters concerning the fleet. We have also begun far too late to develop systematically our coast defences, so that the most essential duties which spring out of the political situa- tion are unfulfilled, since we have not foreseen this situa- tion nor prepared for it. This experience must be a lesson to us in the future. We must never let the petty cares and needs of the mo- ment blind us to the broad views which must determine our world policy. We must always adopt in good time those measures which are seen to be necessary for the future, even though they make heavy financial calls on our re- sources. This is the point of view that we must keep in mind with regard to our naval armament. Even at the eleventh hour we may make up a little for lost time. It will be a heinous mistake if we do not perform this duty devotedly. CHAPTER XIII THE ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION The policy of peace and restraint has brought us to a posi- tion in which we can only assert our place among the Great Powers and secure the conditions of life for the future by the greatest expenditure of treasure and, so far as hu- man conjecture can go, of blood. We shall be compelled, therefore, to adopt, without a moment's delay, special meas- ures which will enable us to be more or less a match for our enemies — I mean accelerated ship-building and rapid in- crease of the army. We must always bear in mind in the present that we have to provide for the future. Apart from the requirements of the moment, we must never forget to develop the elements on which not only our military strength, but also the political power of the State ultimately rest. We must maintain the physical and mental health of the nation, and this can only be done if we aim at a progressive development of popular education in the widest sense, corresponding to the external changes in the conditions and demands of existence. While it is the duty of the State to guide her citizens to the highest moral atid mental development, on the other hand the elements of strength, rooted in the people, react upon the efficiency of the State. Only when supported by the strong, unanimous will of the nation can the State achieve really great results; she is therefore doubly inter- ested in promoting the physical and mental growth of the nation. Her duty and her justification consist in this en- deavour, for she draws from the fulfilment of this duty the strength and capacity to be in the highest sense true to it. It is, under present conditions, expedient also from the merely military standpoint to provide not only for 241 242 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR the healthy physical development of our growing youth, but also to raise its intellectual level. For while the demands which modern war makes have increased in every direction, the term of service has been shortened in order to make enlistment in very great numbers possible. Thus the full consummation of military train- ing cannot be attained unless recruits enter the army well equipped physically and mentally, and bringing with them patriotic sentiments worthy of the honourable profes- sion of arms. We have already shown in a previous chapter how important it is to raise the culture of the officers and non- commissioned officers to the best of our power, in order to secure not only a greater and more independent indi- vidual efficiency, but also a deeper and more lasting influence on the men; but this influence of the superiors must always remain limited if it cannot count on finding in the men a receptive and intelligent material. This fact is especially clear when we grasp the claims which modern war will make on the individual fighter. In order to meet these demands fully, the people must be properly educated. Each individual must, in modern warfare, display a large measure of independent judgment, calm grasp of the facts, and bold resolution. In the open methods of fighting, the infantryman, after his appointed duty has been assigned him, is to a great degree thrown on his own resources; he may often have to take over the com- mand of his own section if the losses among his superiors are heavy. The artilleryman will have to work his gun single-handed when the section leaders and gun captains have fallen victims to the shrapnel fire; the patrols and despatch-riders are often left to themselves in the middle of the enemy's country; and the sapper, who is working against a counter-mine, will often find himself unex- pectedly face to face with the enemy, and has no resource left beyond his own professional knowledge and determi- nation. But not only are higher claims made on the independent responsibility of the individual in modern warfare, but THE ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION 243 the strain on the physique will probably be far greater in the future than in previous wars. This change is due partly to the large size of the armies, partly to the greater efficiency of the firearms. All movements in large masses are more exacting in themselves than similar movements in small detachments, since they are never carried out so smoothly. The shelter and food of great masses can never be so good as with smaller bodies ; the depth of the march- ing columns, which increases with the masses, adds to the difficulties of any movements — abbreviated rest at night, irregular hours for meals, unusual times for marching, etc. The increased range of modern firearms extends the actual fighting zone, and, in combination with the larger fronts, necessitates wide detours whenever the troops attempt enveloping movements or other changes of position on the battlefield. r- In the face of these higher demands, the amount of work done in the army has been enormously increased. The State, however, has done little to prepare our young men better for military service, while tendencies are making themselves felt in the life of the people which exercise a very detrimental influence on their education. I specially refer to the ever-growing encroachments of a social-democratic, anti-patriotic feeling, and, hand-in- hand with this, the flocking of the population into the large towns, which is unfavourable to physical develop- ment. This result is clearly shown by the enlistment statistics. At the present day, out of all the German- born military units, over 6.14 per cent, come from the large towns, 7.37 per cent, from the medium-sized towns, 22.34 per cent, from the small or country towns, and 64.15 per cent, from the rural districts; while the distribution of the population between town and country is quite different. According to the census of 1905, the rural population amounted to 42.5 per cent., the small or country towns to 25.5 per cent., the medium-sized towns to 12.9 per cent., and the large towns to 19.1 per cent, of the entire number of inhabitants. The proportion has probably changed since that year still more unfavourably for the rural population, while the large towns have increased 244 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR in population. These figures clearly show the physical lideterioration of the town population, and signify a danger ' to our national life, not merely in respect of physique, f'but in the intellect and compact unity of the nation. ■ The rural population forms part and parcel of the army. A thousand bonds unite the troops and the families of their members, so far as they come from the country; everyone who studies the inner life of our army is aware of this. The interest felt in the soldier's life is intense. It is the same spirit, transmitted from one to another. The relation of the army to the population of the great cities which send a small and ever-diminishing fraction of their sons into the army is quite different. A certain opposition exists between the population of the great /pities and the country-folk, who, from a military point of view, form the backbone of the nation. Similarly, the links between the army and the large towns have loosened, and large sections of the population in the great cities are absolutely hostile to the service. It is in the direct interests of the State to raise the physical health of the town population by all imaginable means, not only in order to enable more soldiers to be en- listed, but to bring the beneficial effect of military training more extensively to bear on the town population, and so to help to make our social conditions more healthy. Noth- ing promotes unity of spirit and sentiment like the com- radeship of rnilitary service. So far as I can judge, it is not factory work alone in itself which exercises a detrimental effect on the physical development and, owing to its monotony, on the mental development also, but the general conditions of life, inseparable from such work, are prejudicial. Apart from many forms of employment in factories which are directly injurious to health, the factors which stunt physical development may be found in the housing conditions, in the pleasure-seeking town life, and in alcoholism. This latter vice is far more prevalent in the large cities than in the rural districts, and, in combination with the other influences of the great city, produces far more harmful results. THfi ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION 24S It is therefore the unmistakable duty of the State, first, to fight alcoholism with every weapon, if necessary by relentlessly taxing all kinds of alcoholic drinks, and by strictly limiting the right to sell them; secondly, more emphatic encouragement must be given to all efforts to improve the housing conditions of the working population, and to withdraw the youth of the towns from the ruinous influences of a life of amusements. In Munich, Bavarian officers have recently made a praiseworthy attempt to occupy the leisure time of the young men past the age of attendance at school with health-producing military exercises. The young men's clubs which Field-Marshal V. d. Goltz is trying to establish aim at similar objects. Such undertakings ought to be vigorously carried out in every large town, and supported by the State, fron:> purely physical as well as social considerations. The gymnastic instruction in the schools and gymnastic clubs has an undoubtedly beneficial effect on physical develop- ment, and deserves every encouragement; finally, on these grounds, as well as all others, the system of uni- versal service should have been made an effective reality. It is literally amazing to notice the excellent effect of mili- tary service on the physical development of the recruits. The authorities in charge of the reserves should have been instructed to make the population of the great cities serve in larger numbers than hitherto. On the other hand, a warning must, in my opinion, "be issued against two tendencies : first, against the continual ' , curtailing of the working hours for factory hands and arti- 'w sans ; and, secondly, against crediting sport with an exag- \ gerated value for the national health. As already pointed r out, it is usually not the work itself, but the circumstances ' attendant on working together in large numbers that are ^ prejudicial. -^.^' The wish to shorten the working hours on principle, except to a moderate degree, unless any exceptionally unfavourable conditions of work are present, is, in my opinion, an immoral endeavour, and a complete miscom- prehension of the real value of work. It is in itself the greatest blessing which man knows, and ill betide the 246 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR nation which regards it no longer as a moral duty, but as the necessary means of earning a livelihood and paying for amusements. Strenuous labour alone produces men and characters, and those nations who have been compelled to win their living in a continuous struggle against a rude climate have often achieved the greatest exploits, and shown the greatest vitality. So long as the Dutch steeled their strength by un- remitting conflict with the sea, so long as they fought for religious liberty against the Spanish supremacy, they were a nation of historical importance; now, when they live mainly for money-making and enjoyment, and lead a politically neutral existence, without great ambitions or great wars, their importance has sunk low, and will not rise again until they take a part in the struggle of the civilized nations. In Germany that stock which was des- tined to bring back our country from degradation to his- torical importance did not grow up on the fertile banks of the Rhine or the Danube, but on the sterile sands of the March. We must preserve the stern, industrious, old-Prussian feeling, and carry the rest of Germany with us to Kant's conception of life; we must continuously steel our strength by great political and economic endeavours, and must not be content with what we have already attained, or abandon ourselves to the indolent pursuit of pleasure ; thus only we shall remain healthy in mind and body, and able to keep our place in the world. Where Nature herself does not compel hard toil, or where with growing wealth wide sections of the people are inclined to follow a life of pleasure rather than of work, society and the State must vie in taking care that work does not become play, or play work. It is work, regarded as a duty, that forges men, not fanciful play. Sport, which is spreading more and more amongst us too, must always remain a means of recreation, not an end in itself, if it is to be justified at all. We must never forget this. Hard, laborious work has made Germany great; in England, on the contrary, sport has succeeded in maintaining the physical health of the nation; but by THE ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION 247 becoming exaggerated and by usurping the place of serious work it has greatly injured the English nation. The Eng- lish nation, under the influence of growing wealth, a lower standard of labour efficiency — which, indeed, is the avowed object of the English trades unions — and of the security of its military position, has more and more become a nation of gentlemen at ease and of sportsmen, and it may well be asked whether, under these conditions, England will show herself competent for the great duties which she has taken on herself in the future. If, further, the political rivalry with the great and ambitious republic in America be re- moved by an Arbitration Treaty, this circumstance might easily become the boundary-stone where the roads to prog- ress and to decadence divide, in spite of all sports which develop physique. The physical healthiness of a nation has no permanent value, unless it comes from work, and goes hand-in-hand with spiritual development; while, if the latter is subordi- nated to material and physical considerations, the result must be injurious in the long run. We must not therefore be content to educate up for the army a physically healthy set of young men by ele- vating the social conditions and the whole method of life of our people, but we must also endeavour to promote their spiritual development in every way. The means for doing so is the school. Military education under the present-day conditions, which are continually becoming more severe, can only realize its aims satisfactorily if a groundwork has been laid for it in the schools, and an improved preliminary training has been given to the raw, material. The national school is not sufficient for this require- ment.~ The general regulations which settle the national school system in Prussia date from the year 1872, and are thus forty years old, and do not take account of the modern development which has been so rapid of late years. It is only natural that a fundamental opposition exists between them and the essentials of military educa- tion. Present-day military education requires complete individualization and a conscious development of manly 248 GERMANY AND THE NEXT WAR feeling; in the national school everything is based on teach- ing in classes, and there is no distinction between the sexes. This is directly prescribed by the rules. In the army the recruits are taught under the superin- tendence of the superiors by specially detached officers and selected experienced non-commissioned officers; and even instruction is given them in quite small sections; while each one receives individual attention from the non-commis- sioned officers of his section and the high superior officers. In a school, on the contrary, the master is expected to teach as many as eighty scholars at a time; in a school with two teachers as many as 120 children are divided into two classes. A separation of the sexes is only recommended in a school of several classes. As a rule, therefore, the instruc- tion is given in common. It is certain that, under such con- ditions, no insight into the personality of the individual is possible. All that is achieved is to impart more or less me- chanically and inefficiently a certain amount of informa- tion in some branch of knowledge, without any considera- tion of the special dispositions of boys and girls, still less of individuals. Such a national school can obviously offer no prepara- tion for a military education. The principles which regulate the teaching in the two places are quite different. That is seen in the whole tendency of the instruction. The military education aims at training the moral personality to independent thought and action, and at the same time rousing patriotic feelings among the men. Instruction in a sense of duty and in our national history thus takes a foremost place by the side of professional teaching. Great attention is given to educate each indi- vidual in logical reasoning and in the clear expression of his thoughts. In the national school these views are completely relegated to the background — not, of course, as a matter of intention and theory, but as the practical result of the conditions. The chief stress in such a school is laid on formal religious instruction, and on imparting some facility in reading, writing, and ciphering. The so-called Realien (history, geography, natural history, natural THE ARMY AND POPULAR EDUCATION 249 science) fall quite into the background. Only six out of thirty hours of instruction weekly are devoted to all the Realien in the middle and upper standards; in the lower standards they are ignored altogether, while four to five hours are assigned to religious instruction in every standard. There is no idea of any deliberate encourage- ment of patriotism. Not a word in the General Regula- tions suggests that any weight is to be attached to this; and while over two pages are filled with details of the methods of religious instruction, history, which is espe- cially valuable for the development of patriotic sentiments, is dismissed in ten lines. As for influencing the character and the reasoning faculties of the scholars to any extent worth mentioning, the system of large classes puts it alto- gether out of the question. While the allotment of subjects to the hours available for instruction is thus very one-sided, the system on which instruction is given, especially in religious matters, is also unsatisfactory. Beginning with the lower standard on- wards (that is to say, the children of six years), stories not only from the New Testament, but also from the Old Testament are drummed into the heads of the scholars. Similarly every Saturday the portions of Scripture ap- pointed for the next Sunday are read out and explained to all the children. Instruction in the Catechism begins also in the lower standard, from the age of six onwards; the children must learn some twenty hymns by heart, besides various prayers. It is a significant fact that it has been found necessary expressly to forbid "the memorizing of the General Confession and other parts of the liturgical service," as "also the learning by heart of the Pericopes." On the other hand, the institution of Public Worship is to be explained to the children. This illustrates the spirit in which this instruction has to be imparted according to the regulations. It is really amazing to read these regulations. The object of Evangelical religious instruction is to introduce the children "to the comprehension of the Holy Scriptures and to the