mmmÁ 'SSkxnrMtr rT-vryr'-r'-'gíT-'-ríV'l'r'ltf'i'r' THE J®HH ClREl^lR^ UBIRAIRT ® ClHÍCAGOc 1 ' f THE INFLUENCE OF GOLD ON OTHER COMMODITIES A TREATISE BY JOHN W. YOUNG 17 BELMONT AVE. JERSEY CITY, N. J. 1912 PRICE, 15 CENTS 1^^ Copyright, 1912, by JOHN W. YOUNG GOLD CAUSES THE ADVANCE OF ALL OTHER COMMODITIES, OR, IN OTHER WORDS, GOLD IS THE COMMON DENOMINATOR OF ALL COMMODITIES This does not work automatically, as in mathematics, but its tend¬ ency is inevitable. Much depends on the commercial habits of the people to complete the transition. Therë have been two periods in the issue between gold and silver, to determine what part each should have in supplying the world with a stable medium of values; for money for governmental and commercial purposes. A third is vehemently pressing its claim; this we will show as this article proceeds. There abe Two Kinds of Monet. First, subsidiary coinage, for do¬ mestic use and for limited tender. Subsidiary coinage in the United States is limited to ten dollars in any one payment, but when guaranteed by the Government, over $500,000,000. The subsidiary coinage has a large flat element established by law, so that it seems to pay a debt beyond the Intrinsic value of the coinage. Hence it Is useless, or nearly so, in payment of debts beyond its own country. The great wear by abrasion of money comes through the subsidiary coinage. Our subsidiary coinage is worth ten to flfteen cents in terms of the gold of 1848; twenty to twenty-flve cents in terms of the gold of 1873; thirty to thlrty-flve cents in terms of gold of 1894, and it is worth forty to forty-flve cents in terms of gold of 1910. The Second Class is International, and is good as agreed upon, each country having its unit of value marked In the unit of every other country, and its loans and remittances go In the currency as they are marked. Thus the pound sterling of Great Britain is marked $4.8665 in dollars of the United States. In the International there Is no flat element. It must be on a factitious principle, universally conceded, or it must be coinable in a metal that can be so adjusted as to make the cost of Its production eaual to the standard of the value which it represents. From the discovery of Americá in 1492 to 1849 gold and silver formed a stable medium, or money price for all other commodities. Seven years of the flfteenth century were not productive, and we neglect them and begin with the sixteenth century from 1500 to 1849. One half of the available gold and silver was coined as money and the other half was consumed by the arts or by abrasion. AND ALL THINGS VENDIBLE, feb annum feb annum 1500 to 1600 1601 to 1700 1701 to 1800 Gold, $2,505,200; Silver, $4,745,865; Total, $7,251,066 Gold, 3,099,862; Silver, 7,666,472; Total, 10,766,334 Gold, 6,245,737; Silver, 13,325,572; Total, 19,571,309 3 The South Amerloan states 'were fighting their battles of Inde¬ pendence from 1800 to 1820, otherwise the final outcome would have been about $21,476,800 instead of $20,425,800. The California yield in 1849 and 1850 was $100,000,000. See the difference in the two statements: PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1801 to 1848 Gold, $6,873,430; Silver, $13,552,370; Total, $20,425,800 1849 to 1850 Gold, 57,873,430; Silver, 13,652,370; Total, 71,525,800 Between 1851 and 1855 we have gold twelve times its annual value previous to 1849. And silver with an advance of 1.90 per cent (a little less than twice its annual output). The two added together make five times the average of both gold and silver previous to 1849. The first addition of ten per cent should have been made to each gold coin, and silver to the subsidiary coinage. PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1851 to 1855 Gold, $92,659,240; Silver, $24,918,300; Total, $117,577,540 The second addition of ten per cent should ha/ve been added to the gold coinage, and silver to the subsidiary coinage. PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1856 to 1860 Gold, $93,858,100; Silver, $26,332,880; Total, $120,190,980 'Between 1856 and 1860 the conditions are nearly the same. During this time the great economists of Europe commenced an agitation that demonetized gold in many countries, as Belgium, Holland, France, Ger¬ many, the Scandinavian states, and in India. Prominent among these was M. Chevalier, who wrote a work, "De la blasse probable de l'or"— The Probable Fall of Gold. This was translated into English by Richard Cobden. So that gold circulated as a commodity, and was not a legal tender, except partially in France. England and the United States were the exceptions, and they furnished more than four fifths of the world's output of gold and silver. PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1861 to 1865 Gold, $86,092,100; Silver, $32,040,520; Total, $118,132,620 Between 1866 and 1870 the conditions were nearly the same, both metals being used in England, silver being at a premium. PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1866 to 1870....Gold, $90,729,940; Silver, $38,963,820; Total, $129.693,760 The coinage of silver dollars was discontinued February 12, 1873, silver costing $1.314 in terms of gold, and was resumed January 14, 1876, price of silver being $1.180, also February 28, 1878, price being $1.068. PCB ANNUM PCB ANNUM 1871 to 1875 Gold, $80,903,620; Silver, $57,305,000; Total, $138,208,620 4 Between 1876 and 1880 silver increased twice as fast as In tbe pre¬ vious five years, and nine times as fast as it had before 1849. The na¬ tions of Europe began to demonetize silver in good earnest, and to re- monetize gold, which is now nearly completed in all the civilized world. The third addition of ten per cent should have been added to the gold coinage, and silver to the subsidiary coinage. FEB ANXUM FEB ANNUM 1876 to 1880...Gold, $80,210,360; Silver, $118,325,739; Total, $198,536,099 1881 to 1885...Gold, 70,581,480; Silver, 110,139,877; Total, 180,721,357 1886 to 1890...Gold, 79,026,350; Silver, 142,968,716; Total, 221,995,066 , Doduoting $118,081,658 fui "lliu ' Lwu yuarn after NovfUlPgr' 1, 1.893r gi^¡cea-BB-$iS4,34'B,76i<» FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1891 to 1895..Gold, $112,063,040; Silver, $134,345,767; Total, $246,409,807 The decline of silver shows the low credit given hereafter, sixty per cent being taken off. But this is made up by the iarge fiat in the silver coinage; so that henceforth the siiver used as money may be rated as $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 a year, which agrees fairly well with the average output of the mints of the world. FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1896 to 1900...Gold, $180,110,776; Silver, $90,000,000; Total, $270,110,776 First allowance of gold consumed by the arts, as submitted by the "Bureau of the Mint," $74,897,600. FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1901 Gold, $185,063,500; Silver, $90,000,000; Total, $275,063,500 1902 Gold, 210,737,017; Silver, 90,000,000; Total, 300,737,017 1903 Gold, 230,327,734; Silver, 90,000,000; Total, 320,327,734 1904 Gold, 241,405,251; Silver, 90,000,000; Total, 331,405,251 The fourth addition of ten per cent should have been added to the gold coinage, and silver to the subsidiary coinage. FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1905 Gold, $264,802,335; Silver, $90,000,000; Total, $354,802,335 1906 Gold, 276,339,548; Silver, 90,000,000; Total, 366,339,548 This is not too high ($135,046,500), and as none other was made since 1901, and we have had to divide, the last five reports between 1902 and 1906, all of these five are approximately right. FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1907 Gold, $276,661,400; Silver, $100,000,000; Total, $376,661,400 In 1908 gold for the arts was reported as $113,996,000, and that for 1909 as $118,563,215; but this was corrected by the "Bureau of the Mint" by making the correction of $142,506,100 for 1909. Hence our estimate for 1910 as $143,000,000. FEB ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1908 Gold, $306,476,900; Silver, $100,000,000; Total, $406,476,900 5 The latest allowance of "gold for the arts" made by the "Bureau of the Mint." PES ANNUM FEB ANNUM 1909 Gold, $311,639,600; Silver, $100,000,000; Total, $411,639,600 1910 Gold, 311,603,900; Silver, 100,000,000; Total, 411,603,900 1. Thus we have a currency on a gold basis, with silver rel^ated to a subsidiary coinage. 2. We have a gold coinage that exceeds by twenty fold the highest point reached by both gold and silver currency from 1492 to 1849, with silver kept at about 40 cents, partly as a commodity, and partly by sub¬ sidiary coinage, with its patronage. 3. In addition to the tabulation of 1849 we inserted this: "Gold needed a regulation oC 10 per cent increase on its coinage," and after 1856, a repetition. And between 1876 and 1880, when it became necessary to demonetize silver, except for subsidiary purposes, another 10 per cent should have been added to gold and to the subsidiary coinage. The world at this time had $6,000,000,000 in silver, coined or coinable. This $6,000,000,000 represents as much of legal tender, in many countries, as if it had been gold, but the $6,000,000,000 shrank to $2,400,000,000, a reduction of $3,600,000,000, by demonetization. And where silver remained, over more than half the commercial world it was discounted by about 60 per cent and passed as a commodity when taken at all internationally. All parties that owned silver when it was demonetized lost 60 per cent We give some of the principal owners: India $830,000,000 Mexico $56,000,000 United States 715,000,000 Japan 54,000,000 Prance 411,100,000 Hollandi 53,400,000 China 350,000,000 Siam 45,000,000 Germany 223,500,000 Italy 41,600,000 Spain 193,700,000 Turkey 40,000,000 United Kingdom 116,800,000 Belgium 38,100,000 AustriSrHungary 104,200,000 Portugal 33,400,000 Russia 78,000,000 Some of these are estimates; that of China is much too small. Horace Greeley raised this question: "Who ever heard of a congress that could prevent tJie passage of a bill with $50,000,000 bribe in it?" But here is one with a $300,000,000 bribe in it for some one. Many persons can remember the efforts made in Congress from Feb¬ ruary 12, 1873, to November 1, 1893, to pass the bills to coin $513,541,542 at an average cost of $1,015, while the coinage was worth lOver $300,000,000 less than it cost on the day it was completed. The $300,000,000 explains why the United States became the second greatest loser by the demone¬ tization of silver. When the cyanide process appeared, in 1891 to 1895, a fourth addition should have been made in the coinage of gold and subsidiary coinage. Had this been done we should now have a tolerably safe basis in gold at about 50 per cent less than we can arrive at it now. 6 Allow me to repeat what w&s"8ftiiil intïodàctlbn •to-tíie table: "International currency has no fiat el^e^J.'» Jt. nRisf^hç on a factitious principle universally conceded, or it ¿ufiljb^iooinèiÇ'opr; coinable, on a metal that can be so adjusted as to make its cost of production equai to the standard of value which it represents." That is to say that its pur¬ chasing power must be the same, and invariable, for the next fifty or a hundred years. Our international currency has been conducted on the former prin¬ ciple since 184'J. It is by consent that we have construed as universai that gold lias been kept at its present price for international coinage. But that con¬ struction has a very slender and unstable support, as the- history of goid and silver since 1849 wiil show. We must keep in mind that the phenom¬ enal increase in gold was about twenty or thirty years ahead of that of silver (they partially overlapping each other). Gold began to increase in 1849 in California and in 1851 in Australia. But silver nearly doubled in 1860, and four times as much in 1875, and ten times as much in 1890, as in 1848. If the former additions had been made to the coinage of gold, we would be in a position to use $50,000,000 each year to keep a stabie com¬ mon denominator; but we cannot go back and undo what should have been done' long ago. We must take the standard as it is now. And the amount of gold and silver needed for a stable medium now is about $100,000^000. But we are furnishing over $400,000,000 of metal. Gold, $310,000,000, and silver for subsidiary coinage, and for use where the transition is still incomplete. If we had another coinage to take the place of gold, one that would commend itself to the best business sense of the commercial world as more stable than gold, so tlmt gold would lose its monstrous patronage as the sole international money; so that gold would take its place as a commodity, and the accumulation now on hand, you would see gold go down to 25 cents to the dollar. For silver always had to be used for subsidiary coinage. Gold has no place as money. Except in its international relation it would only have its use in the arts. Gold is used in a few countries in subsidiary coinage, but its use is so small as to be negligible. But silver did supersede gold in every country of the earth except Great Britain and the United States, and these two countries couid not have maintained their resistance but for the Great Bonanzas coming suddenly in 1875-1880, though gold itself has greatly multiplied its objection to being the sole reí)resentative of international currency, and may be superseded again. Let me illustrate: Within the last twenty years most of the great railroads of the country were in the hands of receivers and needed recon¬ struction. A plan of reconstruction was devised by J. Pierpont Morgan. At first it found dlflSculty. It took into consideration every interest and gave every man interested a fair chance. It consisted mainiy in having a pool with funds large enough to buy in every part of the system as it was sold by the sheriff. This might be called a Business Man's Court. 7 It creafed'a héw Wí fli'frafisíXJrftitlón. If we include the value of the railroads at th\^tj«e 4hdy|-^wé sdlling at when given to Mr. Morgan for reconstruction, j|>lilsl13fdftit>Be^:put in for reconstruction by him and his syndicates, and if the value of these two items is deducted from the price for which the reconstructed road found a ready market, you will see the value to be credited to the reconstruction movement. Something of this sort is now needed to manage the invariable stand¬ ard of values, which the influx of gold standard has so perverted. Let some man, known the world over as the ablest of financiers, call on all persons interested the world over. Let them give gold the first chance, as being now in possession. Let them determine what amount of gold shall be given the next bond is issued ; say for fifty years. Suppose that they should find that an addition of two fifths would suffice; that is to say, that a bond of $60,000,000 should be paid by $84,000,000 so as to make an approximate equivalent to the money now paid for the bond issued. Let them ask the British and the United States legislatures to add one tenth to the coinage of gold once in two years; so that the gold coined in 1913 would pass as the pound sterling, or the dollar, containing one tenth more gold than the former coinage, and making the former coinage ten per cent below par. In two years repeat the operation. And in two years repeat it again. After the third addition to the coinage the bearings can be taken for another repetition. The first year would reduce the output of gold to be used as money about fifteen or twenty per cent. The effect on the bonds would be that the interest would be two or three per cent, and at the end they would be redeemed with gold of the same purchasing power as that with which the bond has been bought. Without waiting to see what the British Parliament and the United States Congress will do, suppose some business house should offer a bond of this kind, he should readily find a customer, and the discussion with the governments concerned will take care of itself. The cheapening of gold for the arts should also increase the con¬ sumption. You would readily see that the new bonds, as herein described, com¬ mend themselves for two reasons to the mortgager at a permanently low rate of interest, with the final payment deferred to the last, when it would find itself in harmony with its value with the price at which the bonds were bought. And also with the interest of the mortgagee because annually increasing in value. At the same time he would see all bonds issued under the old plan decreasing in value, so that their payment would be a burlesque of forty or more per cent below purchasing power when the bonds were issued. Or in other words: The present method of issuing bonds, by making them payable in the same fineness and weight in gold, without consider¬ ing the purchasing power of gold during the life of the bond, makes it, 8 by its own testimony, to be satisfied with a final repayment of forty or more per cent below par, when its purchasing power is considered. While the new plan, as here described, spends three quarters of its life, earning its higher rate at which it must be redeemed. Thus it will have earned the higher rate of its redemption. Then, too, its existence will be an argument which the governments of these two nations concerned cannot long resist by continuing the present coinage of gold and so perverting the international currency of the world. There are other solutions of the gold difficulty which may be consid¬ ered. But I have given what seems the best, and the one most easily worked. There is one very remarkable case in the discussing of the coinage of gold and silver 16 to 1 that should not be passed by without notice. When the California discovery was but ten years old, and the Australian discovery was but seven years old, that most eminent French¬ man, M. Chevalier (1806-1879) wrote his treatise on "De la blasse probaWe de Tor" (The Probable Fall of God), which was translated Into English by Richard Cobden (1804-1865), the greatest English economist; so that gold was demonetized by every nation in Europe except England. For Englajid was then the largest gold producer's they now produce nearly three quarters of the world's production; so that while this was being done In Europe, there was no great economist In the United Stat;ps that took that view of the case. There was one exception* and It will be appended to this article to show In what a marked contrast it stands out, when compared with many of the greatest economists who took part in the discussion, such as President Harrison, Governor Flower, A. S. Hewitt, John Sherman, and many others. And finally President McKinley, who summed up the case In his first message to Congress In which he reviewed the discussion, giving the most significant points as they were made. They all virtually admitted that Bryan was right but that he was carrying the matter too far, by insisting on unlimited coinage of 16 to 1, much so that he lost many of the principal business men of his own party, at least In the East. Senator Teller of Colorado seceded from the Republican Party, and took with him one tenth of the party vote. And multitudes of others who stayed In the Republican Party did so with their feelings more in harmony with those who seceded. "The Republican Party>dia3*'*toe advantage of the.,DeSR)crats because fhe Democrats held thptr convenMon first. They l6tind a candidate who fully believed in the imiimited coinage of gold ajfra silver, 16 to 1. Hence they were pronoui^d and rampât against all who differed from them. It was the viole:^ of the Demoarats that^jfolarlzed the Republicans and Iliade them stajm so firmly for mid. Had the/Republlcan convention bpen held first, their pronouncement wvpld prjxbably have been dl£ferekt..> * Anyone desirini! to see this exception can have a copy by addressing J. W. Young, 17 Belmont Ave., Jersey City, N. J. 9 And In 1900, four years afterward, the Democrats ran the same plat¬ form of 16 to 1. They did not consider themselves answered on the unlimited coinage of silver. The first acknowledgment of the great infiux of gold was made by a writer in the New York Sun about 1902, and the same paper also con¬ tinued its comments only more emphatically as the case has been aggra¬ vated. One of the most startling opinions concerning our relation to the present coinage of gold was published in the Saturday Evening Post, January 14, 1911. It was given by Mr. Thomas A. Edison for publication. In speaking of the masses of gold in low-grade clays he says: "Of course no discovery has yet been made to use them, but it is not only possible, but very probable, that some such discovery will be made within a rea¬ sonably short time. "Experiments, which he and others are making, are bringing such discoveries nearer every day, and even tomorrow some chemical process may be found successfully to bring about this most wonderful and far- reaching result." The most striking phrase is where Mr. Edison says: "Thinking masters of capital will hesitate to loan money to be repaid at some long period in the future with this commodity. If they loan it at ail, and place themselves at the mercy of a steam shovel and chemical works, the calculated deterioration as to its value over the loan will have to be paid by the borrower in an increased rate of interest" The correspondent then goes on to say, that: "Mr. Edison is thor¬ oughly familiar with the mechanical and chemical side of this great problem as well as the theory. I believe this to be the most astonishing statement on the 'Gold theory' that has ever yet come from the pen of any living man. And it is certainly worthy of the most careful consider¬ ation by every banker and investor." Our enclosed article, published October 29, 1896, calls attention to the same fact years before any other writer in America had mentioned it. (See footnote, page 9.) If I have given you a common denominator of all commodities and things vendible, so that the numerator of any commodity can go accord¬ ing to supply and demand, then by enlarging additional increase to the gold coinage, the very worst of Mr. Edison's fears might be provided for, and the variation of the common denominator may be kept as a negligible factor. The Wall Street Journal quotes Mr. George E. Roberts, Director of the Mint, as believing that the infiux of gold has had its effect, and that its effect will from now on subside. Mr. Roberts is of high authority, and has rendered it much easier for others to understand the gold ques¬ tion. And has not his opinion been a hurried one, without taking time to take in some significant facts that would have made him think differently? You cannot go over the tabulations in this article without seeing that they are required by their offsets. The 'first two additions of 10 per cent were required by gold going from $7,000,000 to $80,000,000 in its annual increase. The third increase of 10 per cent was required by the demon¬ io etlzing of silver, which has been put down tentatively at $3,600,000,000, and the fourth by the cyanide process. Now all these are necessary reductions to bring a flat-footed annual increase of $100,000,000. If this is not done, or something equivalent to it, we will have to do worse, for we are now adding over $400,000,000 a year. The world has now $9,000,000,000 or $10,000,000,000 a year. In ten years we should have $12,000,000,000 or $13,000,000,000. It is the over $300,000,000 that have no offset that is constantly inflating the world's currency, and throwing the civilized world into a whirl of increasing prices. You cannot thus increase the common denominator without multi¬ plying each numerator by an equivalent factor. We are by no means through with the demonetization of silver in Mexico, India, Japan, and other places, and in our own country we have over $500,000,000, mainly in the Treasury, against which our Government issues notes, and guarantees them worth as much as gold. There is enough silver in the $500,000,000 to supply the United States for twenty years with subsidiary coinage, and into that subsidiary coinage they must flnally go. Other countries, like France, Germany, and those with less stores of silver, are using it in the same way for the present. It would take but $25,000,000 of silver a year to supply the world's use for subsidiary purposes, and in the latter part of the table I have made an arbitrary allowance of $100,000,000 chiefly for this account. It will require years to complete the transition, but the tendency is inevitable. For $75,000,000 remain yet to be driven out of the subsidiary coinage. The tax of eight cents per ounce of silver importation In India has Increased to about $100,000,000 of gold ; and as soon as China has a stable government we may expect a corresponding tax from that quarter, thus considerably augmenting the cost of living. But the greatest loss is to come when the bonds now out come to maturity. There are $42,000,000,000 loaned by the National Government, nearly every great city is a borrower, states, counties, railroads, business, mines, etc., enough to run up the sum loaned on bonds about $100,000,- 000,000. The bonds generally are written to be paid in gold of equal weight and flneness as that for which they were sold. Some of these are nearly due, on which there may be small loss, others can be changed into stock. But as the case now stands there are now $15,000,000,000 or $16,000,000,000 by the shrinkage of the purchasing of gold. AbOut one third of the loss may be made up by the high rate of interest which the bonds bear. The bondholders can no more escape losing $10,000,000,000 when their bonds mature than the business world could help losing $3,000,- 000,000 or $4,000,000,000 by demonetizing silver. The principal part of this article was written last fall and then laid aside till the end of the year 1911 should give us correct reports about 11 the output of gold, and correct the previous showing of gold used in the arts, the latter being tpo small and needing correction. And Just now Mr. Taft has sent his message to Congress, February 2, requesting an international investigation of the high cost of living—"Its extent, causes, effects, and possible remedies.'-* Permit me to say that the cost of living should now be less than it was before 1848. All the cereals (except corn because of its wider use, and so is a little dearer) cost no more now than they did before 1848. Sugar costs only half as much as it did before 1848. Only animal food is dearer. And if we taJce into account the difference in wages, we find this: Before 1848 it took the average farmhand the wages of thirteen days of twelve hours a day to earn the price of a barrel of fiour. Now he can earn a barrel of fiour in four days at ten or eight hours to the day. And the same is true with regard to the cereals. Mr. Taft's call is highly opportune, only it should have been made fifty years ago when M. Chevalier, of France, and Richard Cobden, of Eng¬ land, effected the demonetization of gold everywhere except in the United States and England; and it should have been made by the British Parlisr ment. We had other things to think of. Our Civil War was fought out on paper currency that took us fourteen years to get back to gold and silver already infiated to six times what it was worth in 1848, and yet our paper money was worth only one third as much as gold and silver thus infiated. This is our excuse. But England faced its greatest economist, Richard Cobden (1804-1865), and went contrary to his teachings, though eleven of the other nations demonetized gold or could have kept it by increasing its coinage. They could then have given us gold that would have been kept stable by an addition of $50,000,000 a year, and for the last twenty years we would have the cost of living cheaper than even before 1848. The British Parliament and the United States Government are re¬ sponsible for the gold infiation; for all gold from all the nineteen most prominent nations put together would come short, by $50,000,000, of what is consumed by the arts, leaving nothing for infiation, and it can be best accomplished on this side of the Atlantic, for about three fourths of the surplus of gold is from the British Empire. We are giving the gold dollar the same value now as in 1792, when the United States Mint was organized. Then the annual receipts (for money) were $6,200,000; world's gold, $1,800,000,000. Now the annual receipts (for money) are $^1,603,900; world's gold, $1$000,000,000. Gold has lost two thirds of its purchasing power in 120 years. If the accumulation of gold goes on for the next twenty years as it has been doing during the last fifty years the bondholders, at the time of their maturity, will lose $30,000,000,000. Is it not high time to begin at once this needed correction, so that the international money of the world may be a true and stable common denominator of all commodities and things vendible? This can be done by the addition of 40 per cent. Then we shall have a basis that cannot be superseded or duplicated. 12