L38^-?73 Threats of Further Restrictions a Peril to Railway Expansion Address by C. H. MARKHAM President, Illinois Central System Before the KIWANIS CLUB OF SIOUX CITY, IOWA September 20, 1923 Threats of Further Restrictions a Peril to Railway Expansion OUR nation, I like to feel, is not yet grown up. Out here, where not so long ago Indians kindled their council-fires on the bluffs of the winding river, that feeling is particu¬ larly impressed upon me. Within the memory of men still living these vast, far-stretching prairies have been placed in cultivation, cities have sprung up to serve the needs of a countryside once desolate, and rail¬ roads have supplanted the primitive transportation afforded by the prairie schooner and slow-moving river craft. Our growth has been rapid; in a few short years we have outstripped the centuries-old civilizations of Eu¬ rope and Asia in the development of agriculture, industry, transportation ; but, notwithstanding this marvelous growth, our nation, especially this Middle Western country, is not yet full grown. We are still growing, learning, every day. The transforma¬ tion of the last half-century will doubtless be far eclipsed by the changes of the next. I believe in the future of our coun¬ try, and that faith gives me a distinct feeling of optimism in regard to the future of the business in which I am engaged. If I thought the develop¬ ment of the United States had reached the limit of its capacity, that the ex¬ pansion of agriculture, industry and transportation had ceased for all time, that a settled policy of repression and restriction was likely to be maintained toward tjie railroads, chief carriers of the nation's commerce, I would not have the heart to address you on this subject today. Our railroads are not yet a hundred years old. The first steam locomotive to be seen in the western hemisphere was brought to this country from England in January, 1829. In 1851, when construction was begun on the Illinois Central Railroad, there were only 10,982 miles of railroad in opera¬ tion in the entire United States, not much more than the present railway mileage in Iowa alone. Today the railroads of the United States could encircle the earth ten times ! Our na¬ tion, youthful as it is in comparison with the countries of the eastern hemisphere, has one-third of all the railway mileage in the world. CAPABLE OF CIREAT THINGS IN keeping with the youthfulness of our nation, our railroads are young and growing, capable of achievements far greater than those already attained. Given freedom from unsound restrictions, they will be able to serve the future transporta¬ tion needs of the country adequately. It is already certain that 1923 will es¬ tablish new transportation records. In the first six months of the year the railroads carried a greater amount of freight than during any corresponding period in history, and since mid-year freight traffic has been increasing. Since the middle of May the railroads have been loading and moving more than a million cars a week, with the exception of weeks in which there have been national holidays. In the week ending September 1, all previous car-loading records were broken by the loading of 1,092,567 cars with revenue freight. The significant fact about the im¬ mense increase in the volume of busi¬ ness carried on is that the railroads have handled it so efficiently that there has been practically no shortage of transportation, such as we have had with increased traffic in other years ; in fact, week by week throughout this period of unprecedented traffic, the supply of certain classes of cars avail¬ able and uncalled for by shippers has exceeded by a substantial majority the reported shortage of other classes of cars. At a previous time when business was on the increase, the development of our railroads was arrested through a loss of credit occasioned by shrunk¬ en earnings and the growth of re¬ strictive regulation. It must be re¬ membered that the railroads are owned by something like 800,000 per¬ sons, holders of their capital stock. The number of persons who have lent money to the stockholders by purchas¬ ing railway bonds and thereby accept¬ ing a prior claim upon the earnings of the properties owned by the stock¬ holders is approximately as great as the number of persons owning stock. This makes something more than one and one-half million individuals who have a direct financial interest in rail¬ way earnings. All of us have an in¬ direct financial interest, for we are all dependent upon the maintenance of adequate transportation, and adequate transportation cannot be maintained without adequate earnings. now MONEY IS OBTAINED WHEN money must be had for expenditures upon extensions and improvements to the railway plant, and it is not available from earnings, it has to be obtained through the sale of additional securities, either to present stock- and bondhold¬ ers or to other persons. Until the passage of the Transportation Act in 1920, owners of railway securities had not fared very well, and that made it difficult to raise new capital for extensions and improvements. This year, however, railway credit has been improving materially. This has been largely because of the opti¬ mistic, forward-looking attitude taken by the railway managements of the country in the face of inadequate earnings. Such an attitude is based largely upon the Transportation Act, which pledges the country to give the railroads a square deal. Thus far railway earnings, while on the mend, have not reached the 5^ per cent des¬ ignated by the Interstate Commerce Commission as a fair return. For the thirty-five months under the Trans¬ portation Act up to August 1, 1923, railway earnings have been at the an¬ nual rate of 3.97 per cent upon their tentative valuation. For the first seven months of 1923, the railroads realized a net operating income of 5.51 per cent upon their tentative val¬ uation, as compared with 4.46 per cent for the first seven months of 1922. With business good and rates unchanged, there is hope that the railroads will have a fairly good year, and that hope has served to re¬ store some of the old-time confidence in the security of railway investments. Expenditures upon the railway plant this year will exceed one billion dol¬ lars, more than twice the average pre¬ vailing in the last several years. About 60 per cent of the sum is being spent for new locomotives and cars ; the other 40 per cent is being spent for better and more adequate road¬ way facilities and structures. The progress that the railroads have made in the improvement of their properties is something to be proud of. It proves that there are men and women in this country who have enough faith in the future of the country and the soundness of its institutions to put up, in one year, around one billion dollars for railway investments despite the meager earn- 4 ings that the railroads have been al¬ lowed to realize. With such confi¬ dence as this in the future of the railroads, many of which only a short time ago were taking heavy losses and passing up dividend payments, surely any business which ma}' be suffering temporarily ought to take heart and hold on. ONLY ONE DANGER FEARED IF it were not for the constant threat of radical legislation, I feel sure that the country could rely upon a continuance of satisfactory railway service and upon the likelihood of constantly increasing investments be¬ ing made in extensions and improve¬ ments to the railroads. The only thing that can stop the ambitious plans of the railroads to expand in keeping with the growth of the coun¬ try and of its commerce is the uncon- structive agitation of the radicals who are striving with all their might to bring about government ownership of the railroads by making it impossible for the railroads to be operated suc¬ cessfully under private managements. Government ownership of our rail¬ roads would be a national disaster. The very fact that the maintenance of good railway transportation means so much to the welfare of the country is reason enough for us not to give up the system of private management that has given us the most efficient, most economical railway transporta¬ tion in the world. Our government now has all of the power of railway regulation needed to safeguard the interests of the public; government ownership would add nothing in protection, and it would subtract the incentive which now exists under private management to operate the railroads efficiently and economically. I believe there are a good many- Americans who do not fully realize the tremendous dependence that the United States must place in strong, efficient railroads to maintain the com¬ mercial supremacy we have attained. Not until the railroads of other coun¬ tries are compared with ours and we realize what it means for us to have the efficient, economical transportation that has been developed in this coun¬ try under private management do we see how inextricably the prosperity of the country is bound up with its transportation. Our nation has been extremely fortunate in the develop¬ ment of railway transportation. The remarkable growth that we have had in the lifetime of men still living can be traced directly to the rapidity with which railroads were built and devel¬ oped, and our prosperity as a nation today is inseparably linked with the maintenance of adequate, efficient transportation. NATION WELDED FROM STATES For the most part our railroads have ignored state lines, and to that extent they have helped to weld us into a united nation. In Europe, on the other hand, most of the railroads ivere developed as military exigencies required ; they ended at the borders of their respective countries, and fre¬ quently they were of varying gauges, so that the enemy might not readily use them as a means of invasion. The result has been the fostering of in¬ tense nationalism within restricted areas, lack of understanding, com¬ merce of comparatively small propor¬ tions, and much of the economic and political trouble to which modern European nations are heir. In Europe, moreover, there has not been developed to the extent known in this country the practice of terri¬ torial specialization in agriculture and manufacturing. In the United States hundreds of miles frequently separate the farm from the packinghouse, fac¬ tory or mill where farm products are prepared for consumption, and fre¬ quently hundreds of miles separate the packinghouse, factory or mill from the consumer who eventually pays for and uses the manufactured product. S Transportation has become such a common and dependable thing that it has created a commercial development unlike that at present obtaining in Europe. There are few localities in our country that are self-supporting, and the reason for that is the quality and comparative cheapness of Amer¬ ican railway transportation. ïhi-: railroads and t1ík farmers Modern transportation is an im¬ portant part of every form of business. Without it, there could be no farming on the scale that farming is practiced nowadays, no manufac¬ turing in great quantities and at low cost, no distribution of manufactured goods over great areas and to millions of people. Destroy the railroads, and the production of goods would neces¬ sarily be limited to the demand of the immediately surrounding territory. It would set the country back nearly one hundred years, for all the develop¬ ment that has occurred since the building of railroads began has gone along with the railroads. That brings us to the subject of how the railroads must be treated if they are to serve the nation adequately in the future, and I want to discuss that question especially from the standpoint of the farmer, since this is the center of a vast agricultural territory and the business that is cen¬ tered here is especially concerned with the welfare and prosperity of the farmers. All business is self seeking, or it would be philanthropy, not business. The farmer is a business man, and as such he is interested in making a living and earning a return upon the money invested in his farm. The rail¬ roads are also necessarily self seek¬ ing. If they are to carry on they must make a living and pay their own¬ ers a reasonable return upon the money invested in their properties. There is no question as to the essen¬ tial character of the services per¬ formed by both agriculture and trans¬ portation. We refer to agriculture as a basic industry. It is that. We can¬ not have prosperity in this country unless our farmers are prosperous. But, as I have already pointed out, farming nowadays depends almost wholly upon railway transportation, and hence we must classify transpor¬ tation also as a basic industry. Con¬ tinued prosperity likewise depends up¬ on prosperous railroads. The question arises : Are the aims of the railroads and of the farmers in conflict ? Is it necessary for one to suffer that the other may prosper? amount of farmers' traffic The value of alt farm property in the United States is approxi¬ mately four times the value of all rail¬ way property. The farming {wpulation is almost three times as great as the population engaged in railroading. The farmers are our greatest group of pro¬ ducers. About IS per cent of the freight traffic carried by the railroads comes under the heads of "Products of Agriculture" and "Animals and Their Products," which may be roughly termed farm shipping. On the other hand, the farmers also are our greatest group of consumers, and a considerable portion of railway traf¬ fic is used by the farmers as consum¬ ers. In the 1920 census the farmers comprised 30 per cent of the entire population of the country. The farm¬ ers themselves, however, produce a great deal that they consume, and it would be a liberal estimate to say that the farmers consume products repre¬ senting at least 20 per cent of the freight traffic of the railroads. One fallacy connected with this subject of the relation between the farmers and the railroads is the idea that the farmers have to pay freight charges both coming and going—on the 15 per cent of freight traffic that they originate and the 20 per cent of which they are the consumers. The evidence usually cited in support of this idea is that the prices farmers re- ceive for their products are central market prices less the cost of trans¬ portation, while the prices they pay for manufactured products are fac¬ tory prices plus the cost of transpor¬ tation. A FALLACY SIMPLY EXPLAINFD Asimple case win illustrate the fallacy of this idea. A farmer is often the consumer of a manufactured product for which he has himself fur¬ nished the raw material, as, for exam¬ ple, flour made from his wheat. The price the farmer or anyone else pays for flour is a composite of the cost of the grain, the cost of transporting it to the mill, the cost of milling, the cost of transporting the flour back to him, and the cost of distribution. As a consumer of flour, he pays all of those costs. He indirectly pays himself for the grain he produced, the miller for turning the grain into flour, the merchant for carrying a stock, of flour on hand to supply his needs and the railroad for hauling the grain to the mill and the flour back to him. If the cost of transportation could be reduced, would the farmer profit as a producer or as a consumer ? Would he net more for his grain or would he pay less for his flour? It must be apparent that the farmer could not profit in the full amount both as a producer and as a consumer. If he succeeded in increasing the net price of his grain by the amount of the freight rate reduction, he could not at the same time reduce the price of his flour a like amount. All goods are produced, manufac¬ tured and distributed for consumption. The old saying that the ultimate con¬ sumer pays the bill is founded upon fact. He does pay it, necessarily. The cost of transportation is not paid by the producers of the country, but by the consumers, just as the cost of manufacturing and distribution is paid by the consumers. To argue that the farmer as a producer pays the freight on his wheat to the mill would be the equivalent to arguing that he pays for the milling of the wheat or any other service connected with the pro¬ duction and distribution of flour, which in this case is the form in which the raw material is consumed. Prices are responsive to constant bargaining. Let us suppose that the freight rate were to be reduced or wiped out altogether. Bargaining would be stimulated. One man here, anxious to get his crop moving, would accept a price lower by perhaps about half of the freight rate reduction; an¬ other would counter by taking off an¬ other fraction, and before the farmer fully realized the fact the effect of the freight rate reduction would already be on its way to its destination, the ultimate consumer. THE EFFECT OF COMPETITION SUCH is the effect of competition. If competition were to be wiped out, however, the farmer's general situation would be but little improved. By withholding his crop from the market, he might artificially and tem¬ porarily stimulate prices, but the mar¬ ket would be ruined when the surplus would be released, and the artificial maintenance of a price unjustified by supply and demand would tend to keep the acreage of such artificially profitable crops high and to accentu¬ ate the inevitable crash when at last it would come. Falling or rising prices are the weights which balance the scales of supply and demand and as such serve a useful purpose. We hear it said sometimes that the farmers of the Middle West are suf¬ fering because of the present freight rates and that, regardless of the disas¬ trous effect a reduction in their reve¬ nues would have upon the railroads, it is necessary to reduce the rates on farm products in order to put the farmers on their feet financially. Of course, as I have just pointed out, the farmer does not pay the freight rate to market, but it may be interesting to consider what a small item it would be if he did. Let us consider a few 7 facts regarding the relationship of freight rates to the prices of some of the principal farm products of Iowa. I am going to take Remsen, Iowa, as a representative shipping point in the Sioux City trade territory. TRICES OF CORN INCREASED IN 1913, before the war, the rate per bushel on corn from Remsen to Chicago, a distance of 475 miles, was 9.2 cents, and it is now 12.6 cents, the increase being 3.4 cents a bushel. The price of No. 2 white corn in Chicago in the first week of September, 1913, was between 71^4 and 78^4 cents, and in the first week of September, 1923, it was between 89^ and 90 cents a bushel. Therefore, the farmer at Remsen this year can pay the freight rate on corn from Remsen to Chicago and have left about 8 to 15 cents a bushel more of the price he receives than he could ten years ago. During the last year, in fact, while there has been no change whatever in the freight rate on corn, there has been an even greater change in the corn price than in the ten years from 1913 to 1923. In the first week of Septem¬ ber, 1922, No. 2 white corn sold at Chicago for between 61^ and 66% cents a bushel. The farmer this year has 28 cents a bushel more left after selling his corn and paying the freight rate than he had a year ago. In 1913 the rate on cattle from Remsen to Sioux City was 7.6 cents a hundred pounds. It is now 11.5 cents, an increase of 3.9 cents. In the first week of September, 1913, steers sold on the Sioux City market for around $9 per 100 pounds, and in the first week of September, 1923, they sold for around $12.65 per 10Ó pounds. Here is an increase in price of $3.65 per 100 pounds as against an increase in the freight rate of only 3.9 cents per 100 pounds. The farmer in this case is therefore immensely better off, as far as the relation be¬ tween prices and rates is concerned, than he was before the war. In this case, too, it may be pointed out that there has been no change in the freight rate within the last year, and yet because of market conditions steers in the first week of September this year brought around 1 cent a pound more on the Sioux City mar¬ ket than they did in the first week of September, 1922. Other grades of cattle also show a difference in favor of the farmer. Average prices for the first week in September, 1913, and the first week in September, 1923, show a gain of $2.50 per 100 pounds on heifers, $1.75 pier 100 pounds on veal, and $1.15 per 100 pounds on feeders—all as compared with an in¬ crease in the freight rate of only 3.9 cents per 100 pounds. CONCERNING HOGS AND WHEAT Although it is well known that .prices on hogs are off because of market conditions, take hogs as an¬ other example of the relation between freight rates and market prices. The present rate on hogs from Remsen to Sioux City is 12 cents per 100 pounds, as against 8 cents in 1913, an increase of 4 cents. However, in the first week of September, 1913, hogs sold at Sioux City for around $7.80 per 100 pounds, while in the first week of September, 1923, they sold for $8.10 per 100 pounds, an increase of 30 cents as against a rate increase of 4 cents. Without any change in the rate within the last year, the 1923 price of hogs exceeded the 1922 price hy around 24 cents per 100 pounds. A good deal is being said about the low price of wheat. Just to show that the railroads are not responsible for the losses which the wheat growers are taking, let us look at the figures on prices and rates. The freight rate on wheat from Remsen to Chicago was 10.2 cents a bushel in September, 1913, and it is now 15 cents a bushel, an increase of 4.8 cents. In the first week of September, 1913, No. 2 wheat sold on the Chicago market at 87% to 94% cents a bushel, while in the first week of September this year it sold at $1.07 to $1.09 a bushel. The farmer, therefore, could pay the 4.8 cents increase in the rate and still have around 10 to 15 cents a bushel more than he could ten years ago. During the last year there has been no change in the rate on wheat from Remsen to Chicago, but prices have fluctuated considerably, the average remaining about the same. In the first week of September last year the range was from $1 to $1.11%; this year the range was from $1.07 to $1.09. All of us know that most wheat farmers are losing money, but in view of these facts it must be apparent that something other than rates is the cause, since the farmer can sell his wheat this year and pay the small rate increase and still have from 10 to 15 cents a bushel more left over than he could ten years ago. The same rea¬ soning holds true with respect to rates and prices on other farm prod¬ ucts. SAME W0UI.D BE TRUE OF ALL WHY is it that the farmer is singled out as the one who is said to pay the freight both ways and all other classes of business men escape that burden ? Of course, it is not true, and it is inimical to the pub¬ lic welfare to have the farmer take this erroneous position. If it were true that the farmer paid the freight both ways, the same would also be true of the manufacturer, the whole¬ saler, the retailer and all other classes of business men. There has been a lot of discussion of the alleged impoverished condition of agriculture. The truth of the mat¬ ter is that the farmers of the country as a whole are considerably better off than they were a year ago. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the income of the farm¬ ers from sales for the crop year 1923- 24 will be about $200,000,000 more than last year. Not all parts of the country are affected alike. Wheat will bring in less than last year; hogs, probably likewise. On the other hand, the corn crop will bring in more cash, as will also cotton, dairy products and poultry. Cattle and tobacco will bring about the same. The forecast for the 1923-24 crop year is a farm income of around $8,710,000,000. There has been a good deal of agitation about the wheat situation, but of the total prospective income wheat accounts for only about $620,000,000, or 7 per cent. The cot¬ ton crop will bring in more than twice that sum, cattle nearly twice as much and hogs something like $850,000,000. Receipts from dairy products alone will exceed receipts from wheat sales by $430,000,000. DIVERSIFICATION IS NEEDED UNLIKE the railroads, the farm¬ ers have retained their freedom of management, and that should be their surest defense against loss. They can plant what they choose, withhold their crops from the market and sell them when they please, and no gov¬ ernment agency tells them how much they shall pay for labor and what they shall take for their crops. They do not have to render an accounting of any kind. With such freedom from outside restrictions, American farmers should be generally prosper¬ ous, although many of them are not. In the last three years a good many farmers have gone bankrupt. For the sake of our country's prosperity, all unnecessary hazards must be re¬ moved from farm management. One of these is the vicious one-crop system that up until a few years ago was a menace to the cotton-producing sec¬ tions of the South and which this year has been a menace to the wheat- growing sections of the Northwest. I believe firmly that diversification is the hope of the farmer in all sections of the country. Alternate years of feast and famine are unhealthy and should be avoided. The fanner who 9 cloesn t put all of his eggs in one bas¬ ket is pretty likely to get to market without all of them broken. If he loses on hogs, he can retrieve his losses on cattle. If wheat is unprofit¬ able, corn may be profitable. Railway prosperity and farm pros¬ perity are not antagonistic. The sooner that idea is exploded, the bet¬ ter it will be for all concerned. The farmer, as a producer, would not be likely to profit by a reduction of freight rates. As a consumer, he might, but the benefit would not be great, and it wquld eventually be much more than offset by the decline in railway efficiency which would de¬ velop as a result of curtailed earnings. If transportation entered as much as a tenth into the ultimate cost of a product the farmer buys and if freight rates were to be reduced radically, saj' as much as 30 per cent, the benefit to the farmer would be but 3 cents on the dollar, which certainly would not compensate him for the rum of the railroads which it would cause. now TO REDUCE FREIGHT RATES The logical way, the only safe way, to reduce transportation charges is to reduce the costs of pro¬ ducing transportation. In ten years railway freight rates have increased about 54 per cent and passenger fares have increased about 55 per cent. In the same period the railway payroll has gone up 100 per cent; fuel, 200 per cent; taxes, 150 per cent; loco¬ motives, at least 125 per cent; cars, more than 100 per cent, merely to mention the larger items. If these costs can be reduced and traffic can be maintained at a high level, then freight and passenger charges can be reduced—but I want to warn expect¬ ant railway patrons that the likelibood of a large reduction at any time in the near future is not great. For one thing, it is exceedingly difficult to force a reduction of the costs to which I have referred, and the wisdom of it, particularly in the case of labor, is doubtful ; and, in the second place, earnings should not be cut, since some prosperity is needed by the railroads to enable them to make good on their program of construction and general improvement now in progress. Some of the critics of the railroads advocate that freight rates should be adjusted to the ability of the shipper to pay, regardless of the cost of trans¬ portation. The present law provides that rates shall be adjusted so as to provide revenues sufficient to pay all costs and leave a reasonable margin of profit. These two theories may come into sharp conflict when the Congress meets this winter, and now is a good time to ask which is correct. A rate-making theory that takes no thought of the cost of transportation is wrong. Transportation must be maintained whatever its cost. We should have good transportation at the lowest possible cost, it is true, and the present rate-making theory provides that rates shall be no greater than is necessary to assure that satisfactory transportation will be maintained. The railroads are prevented by economic conditions and restrictions imposed upon them by the public from adjust¬ ing their costs to meet a reduced in¬ come, but agriculture, industry and trade, on the other hand, can adjust themselves to the conditions which govern the cost of transportation. Almost half of every dollar the farmer pays the railroads is de¬ voted by the railroads to the pay of their employes. The railway payroll is thus responsible for about half the rates the farmer pays. Labor also en¬ ters largely into the cost of railway supplies. In this connection, it is ex¬ tremely difficult to understand the mental processes of those who go about the country promising the farmer lower rates and at the same time promising the laboring men of the country higher wages. When I figure that the farmer may contribute as much as 20 per cent to the freight receipts of the railroads. 10 that makes it necessary to regard him as one j)erson out of five to whom the railroad is indebted for the bulk of its financial support. On the other hand, I do not believe that the farmer can figure that railway freight service con¬ tributes only a fifth to the value of his crops. We must go back to funda¬ mentals. Efficient transportation has made our country what it is today. Without it, the commercial structure of our country could not exist. With¬ out the railroads, markets for crops would be limited in a way we can scarcely conceive, but which were painfully evident to our grandfathers and great-grandfathers. POLITICS vs. ECONOMICS I LIKE to feel that the American farmer has a fundamental sense of justice which always stands him in good stead and which has always brought him safely out of his occa¬ sional ventures into radical politics. I like to feel that he is capable, in the long run, of seeing through quack nostrums that are offered him in the guise of political action to cure his purely economic ills. I like to feel that he places a much more substan¬ tial reliance upon good judgment in his farming operations than upon at¬ tempts to regulate in his own favor matters outside of his sphere. I like to feel that he can rely upon himself instead of upon Congress to pull him¬ self out of the occasional holes into which he gets. The railroads have come to see the wisdom of placing more reliance in their own good judgment and hard work than in governmental attempts to improve their condition. All that they are asking at present is to be permitted to make the showing of which they are capable. They do not feel that they have ideal regulatory conditions under which to work, since even the operation of the present Transportation Act has allowed them to go for years without a return that could be called anywhere near com¬ pensatory. However, you will find in the conduct of every railroad of any consequence in this country today a determination to show the public what service means and to plan ahead for the future in generous measure, in the belief that the American people will not let such efforts go unrecognized and unrewarded. 11