TN295 No. 9191 HI '•' I Hffl H v 1 ■ ■M,r / ' 1 1 r . t • /\ ' *^ A • 3U /vJlllUlflTv A, .V ^ J ** ^. 1 vt^i:./^ ^ *2i&>>« ; . W * \/ «#fe° %*♦♦ 4 .* » +uJ >o x ^ 4° " «k^ «! i ' * • « • ' .0" •v* ©^-♦.i»' • # * ■ i * ■ •* ^ CT I ■ «,. ' ♦ . »• r *« »' IC 9191 Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1988 Behavioral Accident Simulator Computer Program User Guide and Technical Reference Manual By William E. Souder UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR /f^Ut A&&, fl»U4Airf W+") Information Circular 9191 Behavioral Accident Simulator Computer Program User Guide and Technical Reference Manual By William E. Souder UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Donald Paul Hodel, Secretary BUREAU OF MINES T S Ary, Director n# .li* 1 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data: Souder, Wm. E. (William E.) Behavioral accident simulator computer program user guide and technical reference manual. (Information circular; 9191) Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:9191. 1. Mine accidents— Psychological aspects-Mathematical models. 2. Mine accidents— Psychological aspects— Data processing. I. Title. II. Series: Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines); 9191. TN295.U4 [TN311] 622 s [622'.8] 88-600105 CONTENTS Page Abstract . Introduction Section 1. — Technical summary Network flow variables Data base and user inputs BAS outputs Section 2. — Technical guide to using preprocessors Environmental conditions (EC) preprocessor scale Physiological abilities state (PS) preprocessor scale Adjustive behavior (JB) preprocessor scale Supervisor abilities (FA) preprocessor scale Adjustive behavior override (IF) preprocessor scale Psychological conditions (PC) preprocessor scale Managerial conditions (MC) preprocessor scale Behavioral conditions (BC) preprocessor scale , Section 3. — Other input data: Feedback loops Feedback concepts Building feedback loops Setting feedback coefficients Se ct ion 4 . — Running BAS Setting data values Procedures for using IBM PC version of BAS Program listing Outputs Section 5. — Equations « Section 6. — Sample cases and printouts Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case BEST Appendix A. — BAS Fortran listing Appendix B. — Printouts from BAS for sample cases ILLUSTRATION 1 . BAS network 3 TABLES 1. Scale 1, job physical annoyances (PA) 5 2. Scale 2, production pressure and fatigue (PPF) 5 3. Scale 3, perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA) 5 4. Scale 4, perceived economic climate and job rewards (PEC) 5 5. Scale 5, stressful personal life events (SLE) 6 6. Scale 6, physiological abilities state (PS) 6 7. Scale 7, adjustive behavior (JB) 7 8. Scale 8, supervisor's managerial abilities (FA) 8 9. Scale 9, adjustive behavior override (IF) 8 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 19 43 11 TABLES — Continued Page 10. Scale 10, pattern recognition training (XI) 9 11. Scale 11, alertness (X2) 9 12. Scale 12, discriminatory abilities (X3) 9 13. Scale 13, top management concern for safety (MC) 9 14. Scale 14, volatility (Yl) 10 15. Scale 15, machoism (Y2) 10 16. Scale 16, consistency (Y3) 10 17. Scale 17, influence (Y4) 10 BEHAVIORAL ACCIDENT SIMULATOR COMPUTER PROGRAM USER GUIDE AND TECHNICAL REFERENCE MANUAL By William E. Souder 1 ABSTRACT The behavioral accident simulator (BAS) is a computer program that can be used to simulate accident situations. It demonstrates how the poten- tial to have an accident grows or diminishes as a result of changes in various environmental, organizational, and behavioral factors. It cal- culates the number of fatalities that may result from various conditions and graphically displays these data. The BAS is useful for studying systems of accident causes, for demonstrating the various ways to dimin- ish fatalities, and for training employees. This Bureau of Mines report provides the detailed instructions needed to use the BAS. INTRODUCTION This report describes the technical aspects and the use of the behav- ioral accident simulator (BAS). The development and construction of the BAS is described in Bureau of Mines Information Circular (IC) 9178. The BAS allows the user to model accident situations by supplying the data for several parameters. Depending on how these data are chosen, various environmental, psychological, behavioral, and management factors come into play. These factors interact and impact on the BAS data base and the BAS network of variables to simulate unsafe acts, accident po- tentials, and human accidents. The BAS demonstrates how the potential to have an accident grows or diminishes as a result of various factors, calculates the number of fa- talities that will result if these factors are allowed to remain, and graphically displays these results. The BAS is useful for studying sys- tems of accident causes and for demonstrating the various ways in which fatalities can be diminished. i 'Operations research analyst, Pittsburgh Research Center, Bureau of Mines, Pitts- burgh, PA (now with The University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA). ^Souder, W. E. A Catastrophe-Theory Model for Simulating Behavioral Accidents. BuMines IC 9178, 1988, 19 pp. SECTION 1.— TECHNICAL SUMMARY NETWORK FLOW VARIABLES The BAS is a deterministic network flow algorithm that uses fixed flow values for each route and each node. Except for the various parameters and feedback routes subsequently described, the configuration of the network (numbers of routes, num- bers of nodes, locations of routes, and values of the routes) cannot be changed by the BAS user. The network variables are — VNI = the network flow value at node I = 1 to N nodes in the network; these val- ues are outputs from the program, and VRIJ = the flow frequency of route IJ between nodes I and J; these values are inputs for the BAS program calculations. Figure 1 shows the BAS network model. The nodes are not numbered in ascending order. Rather, they are uniquely identi- fied according to the variables they rep- resent, as given in IC 9178. is the flow frequency from node I to node J in figure 1. For example, VR67 = 0.82 means that node 6 (carefulness) leads to node 7 (safety initiatives) 82% of the time. For more details about these and other variables in the BAS see IC 9178. Another input to the program consists of 17 parameters that are specified by the BAS user to model particular situa- tions or conditions. These parameters are organized into eight network prepro- cessors (fig. 1): the environmental con- ditions (EC) preprocessor, the physiolog- ical abilities state (PS) preprocessor, the adjustive behavior (JB) preprocessor, the supervisor abilities (FA) preproces- sor, the adjustive behavior override (IF) preprocessor, the psychological condi- tions (PC) preprocessor, the managerial conditions (MC) preprocessor, and the behavioral conditions (BC) preprocessor. The BAS user makes changes in the 17 pa- rameters, which cause changes in these preprocessors. The preprocessors then impact on the data base of VRIJ's and the network node system. This produces the outputs from the BAS. BAS OUTPUTS DATA BASE AND USER INPUTS One portion of the BAS computer program consists of a fixed data base of 32 VRIJ numbers. These numbers are an integral part of the BAS. They were empirically derived from actual accident situations in underground mining as discussed in IC 9178. Though they are inputs to the BAS algorithm, they are not manipulatable by the user. Rather, they are part of a fixed data base that is under the control of the BAS computer program. Each VRIJ The BAS program calculates, interprets, and prints out the network flow values at each of the numbered nodes in the network in figure 1, with node 27 being the final terminus. The network flow values are designated as VNI for value at nodes I =1 to N. These values represent the accident system entropies of each state (node) in the system. Several levels and types of interpretive reports are avail- able on these flows, as specified by the user. Psychological variables Behavioral variables Management variables KEY CO — **Q) Variable I leads to variable J [*1 User inputs that define preprocessors *- Feedback loops (l) Preprocessors, calculated from user inputs (fa* LS IF IA TP & 1 - PP CS DA FIGURE 1.-BAS network. SECTION 2. —TECHNICAL GUIDE TO USING PREPROCESSORS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EC) PREPROCESSOR SCALE Behavioral accidents result from the dynamic interplay of many opposing forces, cumulating and building to a cre- scendo that causes the individual to commit an unsafe, irrational act (see IC 9178). Environmental conditions are one of the important forces that lead to behavioral accidents, because they result in a kind of psychological overload or underload within the individual. The end result of this chain of events can be inattention, dissatisfaction, boredom, recklessness, f orgetfulness , fatigue, and shortened reaction times. Such situ- ations carry a high potential for an accident. Thus, the following five variables are used in the environmental preprocessor. The symbols in parentheses are the vari- able names that are used in the BAS com- puter program. 1. Job physical annoyances (PA). The more dirty and annoying the job, the higher the potential for accidents. 2. Production pressure and fatigue (PPF). Felt pressures to get out the product can directly affect one's mental acuity and physical efficiency, thus resulting in increased potentials for accidents. 3. Perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA). An individual who does not understand the nature and importance of his/her job in the total mine system is subject to a variety of noxious impacts that favor accidents. 4. Perceived economic climate and job rewards (PEC). The more the employee feels trapped in an underpaid, lowly es- teemed job, the greater the potential for accidents. 5. Stressful personal life events (SLE). The death of a spouse, a personal financial problem, etc. , can severely hamper one's job performance and lead to accidents. To obtain the data for the above five variables, the BAS user consults the se- ries of scales in tables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. For example, if the job is "very clean and very quiet," the BAS user rates the variable PA as "low" and correspond- ingly sets PA = 10 as shown in table 1. Note that these scales are illustrative only. Scale positions and corresponding values in between those shown for "low" and "high" can be added by the user by interpolation in tables 1, 2, 3, and 4. Scale positions and values can similarly be added between "maximum" and "none" in table 5. The BAS uses a series of equa- tions (see section 5) to combine the data for these five variables into the envi- ronmental preprocessor, EC, which eventu- ally enters node 9 in figure 1. PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES STATE (PS) PREPROCESSOR SCALE If the individual experiencing the var- ious environmental conditions also has some physiological inabilities (e.g. , im- paired hearing, poorly developed muscle structures), his/her accident potential may thereby be increased. Following are four physiological inabilities: 1. Inadequate physical strength, 2. Physical impairment, 3. Improper or inadequate training for the job, and 4. Working when physically injured. The BAS uses a variable "physiological abilities state" (PS) to represent these conditions. The scale for the PS vari- able is shown in table 6. TABLE 1. - Scale 1, job physical annoyances (PA) Scale position Scale jposition description PA = This job is very clean and very quiet. This job is "about average" for cleanliness and quietness of environmerat ("what one would expect, not too bad for what it is, typical for this industry"). This job is excessively noisy, dusty, dirty and environ- mentally abrasive ("cannot hear yourself think, covered with grime at the end of the shift, about the worst job there is for dirt and noise"). 10 40 High 100 TABLE 2. - Scale 2, production pressure and fatigue (PPF) Scale position Scale position description PPF = Personnel are generally well rested, have not recently experienced many pressures to produce, and are not preoccupied with achieving high outputs at the expense of safety or personal health. There is concern for output, though the environment and/or management does not excessively emphasize this aspect. Personnel feel excessive pressures to get out the product and they are weary from their efforts. 10 50 High 100 TABLE 3. - Scale 3, perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA) Scale position Scale position description PJA = This job or role is well defined, the responsibilities and duties are well understood by all and the perfor- mance standards are well established. This job or role is not well defined, there is some uncertainty as to the duties and responsibilities, and the performance standards are only partially established. This job or role is undefined, there is total uncertainty about the duties and responsibilities, and there are no established performance standards. 10 60 High 100 TABLE 4. - Scale 4, perceived economic climate and job rewards (PEC) Scale position Scale position description PEC = High Personnel are satisfied with the rewards and climate. There is some dissatisfaction, but it is only moderate and confined to a few persons. Personnel feel underpaid and underappreciated. 10 40 100 TABLE 5. - Scale 5, stressful personal life events (SLE) 1 Scale position Scale position description SLE = Maximum. Extreme. Do Do Do Major. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Minor, Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do.. Do., Do., Events create stresses beyond the extreme. Death of loved one or close family member. Divorce , Separation from spouse , Jail term , Injury or personal illness (serious) Marriage Health change of family member New family member, e.g. , a new baby. Business readjustment New mortgage Foreclosure on home or car, etc Work assignment change On-job argument with supervisor Son or daughter leaving home In-law problems Wife starts or stops working outside home. Work hours change Residence change , Vacation , Christmas , Minor violations of the law , On-job arguments with peers , None No events of any significance. 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 If more than one stressful personal life event exists, use the highest scoring SLE and discard the others. Source: Rahe, L. 0. , and T. H. Holmes. Scaling of Life Change: Comparison of Direct and Indirect Methods. J. Psychosom. Res. , v. 15, No. 3, 1971, pp. 223-226. TABLE 6. - Scale 6, physiological abilities state (PS) Scale position Scale position description PS = The individual is physically qualified and physiologi- cally adequate for this job. The individual is physically inadequate and/or not physi- cally qualified to do this work. 1 2 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (JB) PREPROCESSOR SCALE The potential to have an accident can either be lessened or further enhanced, depending on the adjustive behaviors and coping mechanisms the individual brings to play in reacting to the environment. For instance, if the individual reacts by becoming aggressive (e.g. , "get out of my way, I'll fix that thing!"), the potential for an accident can suddenly escalate at an exponentially increasing rate. But, suppose the individual en- gages in some adaptive mechanisms, i.e., he/she calmly considers the options and adapts his/her behavior to the circum- stances. Then the accident potential may diminish, along with the originally perceived stresses. The individual who stops and asks himself /herself "why am I upset by this?" is on the way to an adjustive behavior that reduces his/her potential to have a behavioral accident. Table 7 lists six individual adjustive behaviors, i.e., ways the individual may react to the stressors. The BAS uses the variable JB to represent these behaviors. The BAS user must specify a value for JB, using the scales shown in table 7. The BAS uses a set of equations to combine the environmental conditions (EC) and adjustive behavior (JB) scores into EC which is one of the inputs to node 9 in figure 1. TABLE 7. - Scale 7, adjustive behavior (JB) Adjustive behavior JB = Examples of this type of reaction or reaction Fixation = stubborn, persistent nonadjustive reaction in the face of cues that this is ineffective behavior. Displacement = misplaced direction of pent-up emotions toward the "wrong" object. 1 Fantasy = imaginative activity as an escape. Regression = regression to infantile behaviors, in search of solace. Repression = burying psychologically disturbing events from one's consciousness. Flight = physical or mental departure from a psychologi- cally painful situation. 2 Replacing the urge with a higher level substitute, but never fully resolving the original issue. 3 Identification = patterning one's acts after another who is seen as having higher status. Projection = attributing one's own failings to others. 4 An adjustment wherein the individual changes behaviors, attitudes, or values to accommodate a stimulus, but fails to make a permanent and complete internal recon- ciliation. Hence, recidivism to a lower level reaction, e.g. , aggression, may appear when the same stimulus reappears. 5 A complete resolution of the issues by consultative session(s) between the employee and all other affected parties. SUPERVISOR ABILITIES (FA) PREPROCESSOR SCALE The ability of the supervisor to ob- serve and identify stressors as they emerge, to perceive the buildup of behav- ioral accident potentials within the in- dividual, and to intervene at the appro- priate time are key elements in producing an effective adjustive behavior that re- duces accident potentials. Environmental conditions, plus the individual's physio- logical abilities state, create accident potentials. The individual's adjustive behavior, plus the supervisor's abil- ities, either reduce or enhance the acci- dent potentials. The supervisor's abilities are scored along the six dimensions listed in table 8. The greater the supervisor's abil- ities, the lower the likelihood that an accident will occur. The supervisor is scored either "1" if he/she has this ability (he/she is "good" at it), or "0" if he/she does not have this ability (he/ she is not "good" at it), for each of the six dimensions in table 8. The super- visor's total score, FA, is the sum of the dimension scores (the l's and 0's). For example, a "perfect" supervisor would have FA = 6. TABLE 8. - Scale 8, supervisor's mangerial abilities (FA) Dimension Dimension score Leadership skill (LS) 1 or Interpersonal skill (IA) 1 or Technical ability (TP) 1 or Planning proficiency (PP) 1 or Communication ability (CS).... 1 or Directing skill (DA) 1 or ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (IF) PREPROCESSOR SCALE Whatever the supervisor's managerial abilities (FA) score, his/her score may be overridden. For example, a "good" supervisor may not have any effect on the individual, or a "bad" supervisor may be ignored by the individual. To illustrate this suppose FA = 0, but the individ- ual's behavior = 5. That is, even though this is the worst possible supervisor, the individual is able to fully adjust to the situation. To represent this, i.e., the individual does not depend on the supervisor and can achieve adaptation without the supervisor, IF = 1.0 must be used. See table 9 for more details. TABLE 9. - Scale 9, adjustive behavior override (IF) Case condition or situation IF = The individual adjusts his/her own behavior without the supervisor's involvement 1 The supervisor influences the indi- vidual's adjustive behavior PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITIONS (PC) PREPROCESSOR SCALE To be able to avoid accidents, one must be able to perceive various cues and pre- cursors of pending accidents. One must also be able to discriminate between appropriate and inappropriate actions. For example, when following another car on the highway, a small puff of white smoke from the tailpipe of the car ahead often indicates the driver's foot has left the accelerator and the driver is preparing to stop. An appropriate action for the following driver might be to step on the brake. But this might not be appropriate on an icy highway, or where many cars are closely following each other. Thus, judgments are required. One thing that can aid this judgment is formal training in pattern recognition. For example, formal training in the types of smoke patterns that come from the car's exhaust just before deceleration and acceleration can make a driver more alert to such conditions and their mean- ings. In the BAS , these concepts are combined through a series of equations to create a psychological conditions pre- processor. This preprocessor results in a value for PC, which enters node 14 in figure 1. To obtain the input data for the psy- chological conditions preprocessor, the user must supply data for the following parameters: XI, X2, and X3. To supply these data, the user consults the scales shown in tables 10, 11, and 12. MANAGERIAL CONDITIONS (MC) PREPROCESSOR SCALE The amount of concern for safety shown by top management can "set the stage" for safe behaviors. Using the scale in ta- ble 13, the BAS user can specify the degree of top management concern for safety. Additional scale values may be specified by interpolation. Note that the BAS user must use the decimal when entering any data for this variable. The value of MC is used in a series of equa- tions to produce SC, which enters node 21 in figure 1. TABLE 10. - Scale 10, pattern recognition training (XI) Scale position Scale position description XI = Yes This person has recently received formal training in pat- tern recognition. This person has not recently received such training. 1 ? TABLE 11. - Scale 11, alertness (X2) Scale position Scale position description X2 = This person is a poor observer who misses many details and cues that most people would see. 1 This person is a good observer who sees many things that most people would miss. ? TABLE 12. - Scale 12, discriminatory abilities (X3) Scale position Scale position description X3 = This person would not know the appropriate actions to take in a sudden emergency, would not know what to do, or how to handle it. 1 This person would know the appropriate actions to take in a sudden emergency. ? TABLE 13. - Scale 13, top management concern for safety (MC) Scale position Scale position description MC = Maximum concern. . . . 1 .5 Minimal concern. . . . 10 BEHAVIORAL CONDITIONS (BC) PREPROCESSOR SCALE Persons who consistently take unneces- sary risks or act in a macho fashion may have (or cause) more accidents than less radical-behaving persons. This might be especially so where others emulate this behavior. Even persons who occasionally act in radical ways may have (or cause) more accidents than those who consis- tently behave more conservatively. Thus, these considerations are combined through various equations to calculate BC , the behavioral preprocessor, which enters node 22 in figure 1. The BAS user con- sults the scales shown in tables 14, 15, 16, and 17 to define the four parameters that are the components of BC. TABLE 14. - Scale 14, volatility (Yl) Scale position Scale position description Yl = High... This person often goes off half-cocked or sledom "looks before he/she leaps," is an emotional thinker, plans lit- tle, or takes unnecessary risks. 1 This person plans a great deal, considers every alterna- tive action before committing to one action, and is normally a rational thinker. ? TABLE 15. - Scale 15, machoisra (Y2) Sea le position Scale position description Y2 = High. This person has a need to demonstrate his/her "manliness," does things "his/her own way," conventional ways of doing things. 1 This person has high regard for conventional rules and seldom "shows off." ? . TABLE 16. - Scale 16, consistency (Y3) Scale position Scale position description Y3 = High This person shows predictable, consistent behavior from day to day. This person shows inconsistent behavior from one day to the next. 1 ? TABLE 17. - Scale 17, influence (Y4) Scale position Scale position description Y4 = High 1 i 11 SECTION 3. — OTHER INPUT DATA: FEEDBACK LOOPS FEEDBACK CONCEPTS Behavioral reinforcement feedbacks can occur as a result of any personal, vicar- ious, or social learning experience. A person who does something once with fa- vorable results is likely to do it again (personal learning experience). A person may try something simply because he/she thinks about it longingly and the idea is appealing (vicarious learning). In addi- tion, a person may copy the behaviors of his/her peers (social learning). Personal experiences and social learn- ing may not by themselves change behav- iors. However, they may affect a per- son's psychological set, which can then change that person's behaviors. To il- lustrate, suppose a person is not charac- teristically highly impulsive. But one day, in a hurry, the person makes a snap judgment on the basis of scanty informa- tion. Let us further suppose that al- though this snap judgment used a faulty decision process, an accident did not re- sult. Because of this experience, the next time the person encounters a situ- ation like this one, the person's cogni- tive decision process (psychological set) and the person's impulsivity (behavior) may be out of character. That is, the person may try to repeat the most recent snap decision and quick behavior. The point is that one successful snap deci- sion (behavior) can alter one's psycho- logical set (cognitive decision-making process). This is a feedback effect, as opposed to the main effect running from psychological set to behavior. For many individuals, such feedbacks may be 10% or 20% as important as the main effect. BUILDING FEEDBACK LOOPS The BAS allows the user to build three independent feedback loops into the net- work. As shown by the broken lines in figure 1, these three are from node 15 to node 9, from node 16 to node 9, and node 27 to node 22. The feedback loop from node 27 to node 22 means that once node 27 has reached its terminus, it can feed back into node 22. This feedback says that once poor employee judgments (node 27) occur, they can further de- crease an individual's degree of compli- ance with safe procedures (node 22). This, in turn, feeds back into the indi- vidual's judgments (node 27), causing those judgments to be even poorer than they would have been without feedbacks. Similarly, the feedback loop from node 15 to node 9 causes individuals to have lower self-control. And the feedback loop from node 16 to node 9 causes indi- viduals to be more impulsive. For more details about these variables, the reader is referred to IC 9178. To include any feedback loop, the user simmply inputs a feedback coefficient, FCJI for that particular feedback route JI, corresponding to forward loop IJ. The FCJI numbers, which must be less than 1.0, represent the portion of the vlue of direct route IJ to be attributed as the value of feedback route JI. For example, FC159 = 0.20 means that the value of the feedback route from node 15 to node 9 in figure 1 is 20% of the value of the route from node 9 to node 15. The feedback variables are — FCJI = feedback coefficient for feed- back route JI (input) VFRJI = value of feedback route JI (output from the BAS). Normally, feedback coefficients will not exceed 0.50. Typically, feedback coef- ficients range from 0.10 to 0.30. The choice of an appropriate feedback coeffi- cient is a matter of the user's judgment. SETTING FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS Normally, on the average, involvement in a group situation will reinforce indi- vidual human behaviors about 20% of the time. This means that if an individual is impulsive and the other group members copy this behavior, their behavior will in turn cause the individual to be 20% more impulsive. This would be coded in the BAS as a feedback coefficient of 0.20. Specifically, three feedback loop 12 commands will appear when running the BAS: "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13," "INPUT FC VALUES FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13," and "INPUT FC VALUES FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C." Here, FC is the feedback coefficient. In the general case, each of these commands would be re- sponded to by typing in the number 0.20. If the user feels that the group is more influential, then the value of the coefficient should be increased to 0.30, 0.40, etc. As noted above, numbers greater than 0.50 would be extraordinary. For example, a feedback, coefficient of 0.60 for poor self-control (feedback from node 15 to node 9) says that every act of poor self-control by the individual is perfectly copied 60% of the time by all the group members, and this is then per- fectly recopied by the individual 100% of the time. The net result is that the individual now demonstrates 60% self- control as a resu t of interactions with the group. A 20% feedback is more typ- ical, e.g., individual behaviors are normally no more than about 20% more pronounced as a result of interacting with behavior-reinforcing peers. For less influential groups, the coefficient should be accordingly decreased, i.e., a person may be only slightly influenced by his/her peers. The presence of three feedback loops within the BAS provides great flexibility in modeling group influences, as follows. For example, suppose the BAS user feels that Mr. ABC, who is being modeled in the BAS, is basically an impulsive person. Suppose the BAS user feels that this is likely to cause other persons who work around Mr. ABC to become more impulsive. And suppose the BAS user feels that this will, in turn, further reinforce Mr. ABC to become even more impulsive. This is the essence of group-individual behav- ioral feedbacks. In this case, the feed- back loop from node 16 to node 9 in fig- ure 1 should be coded in the BAS to reflect this. Thus, in response to the BAS program command "INPUT FC VALUES FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13" the BAS user would enter a number between 0.0 and 1.0. This is the feedback coefficient or FC value, as noted above. As noted above, the FC values should not exceed 0.50, and the usual value is 0.20. Note that this command refers to the feedback loop from node 25 to node 13, while figure 1 numbers the nodes differently. This is simply an artifact of the computer pro- gram node numbering system and is of no consequence to the BAS user. All the user needs to remember is which loop con- trols which variables. The feedback loop from node 15 to node 9 in figure 1 allows the BAS user to mod- el group influences having to do with poor self-control. For example, suppose the BAS user feels that Mr. ABC lacks self-control. That is, he "flies off the handle" at slight provocations or other- wise appears to lack the ability to main- tain a studied, logical approach to threats and cries. Assume that the BAS user feels this will diminish the self- control of others around Mr. ABC. And assume the BAS user feels that their di- minished self-control will eventually cause Mr. ABC to have even less self- control. This is the essence of group- individual behavioral feedbacks. Then, in response to the command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13," the BAS user would enter a number between 0.0 and 1.0, as discussed above for feedback loops. The feedback loop from node 27 to node 22 in figure 1 allows the BAS user to model feedbacks due to poor judgments. If the BAS user feels the individual be- ing modeled in the BAS exhibitts poor judgment, and that this individual will be subject to group-individual behavioral feedbacks , then this is the feedback loop that should be used. In response to the command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C," the BAS user would enter a num- ber between 0.0 and 1.0, analogous to the above discussions for the other feedback loops. In summary, there are three feedback loops. The command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13" is for impulsiv- ity. The command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13" is for self- control. And the command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C" is for poor judgment. The normal FC value is 0.20. A larger or smaller number is used when each of these feedback effects is larger or smaller, respectively, than normal. Since feedbacks are the result of group phenomena, breaking up the group, remov- ing the influential person causing the problem, reassigning some personnel to other locations, or intervening in the 13 group processes are the typical means for diminishing these phenomena. Training, close supervision, or setting a better example for the group are some typical ways of intervening. Thus, the BAS may be used to test the impacts of various actions or interventions. SECTION 4.— RUNNING BAS SETTING DATA VALUES The BAS will run with or without feed- back loops. The BAS will run with all the preprocessors set at their rainimums, i.e., preprocessors are not used. How- ever, when any preprocessor is used, care must be taken to set its parameters in a way that accurately refelcts the scenario that the user derives to simulate. PROCEDURES FOR USING IBM PC 3 VERSION OF BAS Callup procedures will vary, depending on the nature of the personal computer, e.g. , whether it is an IBM or some other IBM-compatible machine, whether the pro- gram is stored on a hard disk or a floppy disk, the name it is stored under, etc. Typically, if the program is stored on a floppy disk, after booting and entering the current date and time, the user will see the name of the program appear on the screen. In some other systems, a cursor will apear and the user must enter the program name for the keyboard. The pro- gram is usually stored under some name like "BAS" or "FLOW 1," which is its For- tran name. After the program is called up, dialog with the program can begin. The questions to be answered and the actions to be taken by the user will au- tomatically be displayed on the screen. Simply answer the questions as they ap- pear, with the aid of the appropriate scales in tables 1 through 17 and the above discussions. ^Reference to specific products does not imply endorsement by the Bureau of Mines. After the last question, "ENTER A NAME FOR THIS CASE" will appear on the screen. You may enter any combination of four digits or four letetrs as the case name. If you enter more than four characters, the computer will truncate it to four characters. Then the prompt "NAME UNIT 6" will appear on the screen. You will then have four options. Enter "PRN" to have all the results of the questions printed out on the printer. Enter "CON" to have all the results of the ques- tions appear only on the screen. Enter, "MYFILE" to have all the results of the questions stored on a computer disk, under the file name MYFILE (or any oth- er name you have entered). Enter "CTRL P" to have all the results of the questions printed out on the printer and to appear on the screen simultane- ously. (Note: CTRL is the "control" key. You must press the CTRL and P keys simultaneously. ) Anytime you wish to stop the program, just simultaneously press the CTRL and S keys. To start the program once you have stopped it, press any key. When the pro- gram is finished, it will give you a list of "DO YOU WANT TO" commands and a menu. You may now continue according to the menu or terminate your work. Should you want to print any file stored on a com- puter disk before you turn off the com- puter, e.g. , a file named "MYFILE," sim- ply turn on the printer by simultaneously pressing the CTRL and P keys and enetr "TYPE MYFILE" at the keyboard. An alter- nate method is to use the copy command, e.g., type "COPY MYFILE PRN" at the key- board. Should you want to delete a file, e.g. , a file named "TREES" that you have previously stored on the disk, simply 14 type "DEL" and the name of the file, i.e., "DEL TREES." To scan the disk, to see what is stored there, simply enter "DIR" and the screen will display the file names that are stored on the disk. PROGRAM LISTING The Fortran program listing is shown in appendix A. Users may want to develop their own programs around this listing. OUTPUTS Several types of reports are available to the user. These may be obtained by simply typing "1" when the BAS accord- ingly queries the user. Sample output reports are presented in appendix B. The report entitled "THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE:" is simply a listing of the input data, so that the user can check them. Note that because of programming conventions and restruc- tions, some of the parameter identifi- cations in the printouts are different from those shown in figure 1. In par- ticular note the following parameter identifications: EC*. In f Lgure 1 — In appendix B — PI13 PC. . VN23 sc. . VNA MC. . XNA BC. . VNCI FA. . XMA IF. . AJBO XAJB Another report is the "DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT." The entropy values in this re- port are the cumulative flows at each of the nodes in figure 1. This report is very useful for following the buildup of flows through the network. Note that because of the way the computer program assigns node numbers, the node numbers in the printouts are not the same as those shown in figure 1. In particular, note the following node numbers: In appendix B as q In figure 1 — value at node (VN) 13 a J 14 11 1 s 24 ?? C 6 10 16 25 7 12 ?7 I 16 All the other node numbers are the same. Note also that VRCI has a constant value of 1.0 so that VFRIC = FCIC x VRCI = FCIC in the printouts in appendix B. In gen- eral, most users will not care to see the "DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT" and they may not wish to request it. Alternatively, they can allow it to print out and sim- ply ignore it. Users who wish to use it will find more information about it in IC 9178. In the "SUMMARY REPORT," the %MAX SCORE is the raw score divided by the maximum value for that type of error, for the data provided to the BAS. The message "A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED" signifies that a jump shift occurred in the cusp catastrophe model. For more details on this, see IC 9178 and see the discussions in the following section concerning the cusp catastrophe model equations. The "MANAGEMENT REPORT" summarizes the fatality likelihoods and the "% FATALI- TIES BY SOURCES." It also graphically displays the %MAX SCORE data from the "Summary report." 15 SECTION 5. —EQUATIONS Several equations and mathematical ex- pressions are used within the BAS , as indicated in figure 1: 1. Environmental preprocessor. EC = (TH1 + TH2/10.5) 1/2 /l.5. The variables TH1 and TH2 are Fortran variables only. They are explained in item number 5 below. The constants 10.5 and 1.5 are scale values. EC is the val- ue of the environmental preprocessor that eventually feeds node 9 of the network in figure 1. 2. Psychological preprocessor. PC = 0.55 + (X2/1.6667 + X3/2.50) - Xl/2.0. Here, 0.55 is a scale factor and the di- visors are normalizing and/or eighting factors. Subtracting the value for XI compensates for the effects of training. Thus, 0.50 < PC < 1.550. The parameter PC feeds node 14 in figure 1. 3. Management preprocessor. SC = (1 - MC) + (1 - MC) 2 /2.0 + 0.05. Here, 0.05 is a scale factor and the sec- ond term causes SC to become an exponen- tial function of MC. Note that 0.05 < SC < 1.55. The parameter SC feeds node 21 in figure 1. 4. Behavioral preprocessor. BC = ((Yl + Y2)/2.0) x (Y3) x (Y4) + 0.55. Here, 0.55 is a scale factor and the first term is the average of the Yl and Y2 values. Y3 = 1 or 0.6667, depending on whether consistency occurs and Y4 - 1 or 0.75 depending on whether emulation occurs (see IC 9178). Thus, 0.44 < BC < 1.550. The parameter BC feeds node 22 in figure 1. 5. Threshold values. TH1 = ((PJA + PEC + SLE)/95) x PA x 1.667. TH2 = ((PA + PPF + SLE)/95) x PS x 1.667. Here, 95 and 1.667 are scale factors. If either of the Fortran variables TH1 or TH2 are greater than 2.0, a behavioral threshold is penetrated and the exponen- tial cusp catastrophe equations prevail as discussed below. 6. Cusp catastrophe model. XP13 = ((0.3 x TH1/10) 2 ) 1/3 YP13 = ((0.3 x TH2/10) 2 ) 1/3 CP13 = (XP13 + YP13) x 1.18. Here, 0.3, 10, and 1.18 are scale fac- tors. XP13, YP13, and CP13 are Fortran variables only. The value of CP13 is the behavioral response (anger, etc.), which is to be offset by either the super- visor's skills (FA) or the individual's adjustive behaviors (JB). 7. Behavior decay. EC* = DP13 - x, where 16 DP13 = (TH1 + TH2/10.5) 1/2 /1.5 and TH1 < 2.0 or TH2 < 2.0, where TH1 and TH2 are as defined in item 5 above, and DP13 and x are Fortran vari- ables. Here the variable x takes on the sequential values 0.10, 0.20, etc., cor- responding to JB = 1, 2, etc. This equa- tion causes the accident-provoking behav- ior to decay, i.e., just the opposite of the equations in item 6 above (which cause the accident-provoking behaviors to exponentially explode). 8. Behavioral accident potential, BAP. BAP = EC* - FA*/10 for behavior decay, and BAP = CP13 - (FA*) 2/3 for the cusp catastrophe case. 9. The recursive, sequential VNI calculations. VNI = VNX * VRXI + SUM Here, X is the node immediately pre- ceding node I and SU, is the sum of the value of all other recursives entering any node I. 10. Percent deaths, PD. For < Z < 30, PD = 0.2667Z + 4.0. For 30 = Z < 90, PD = 1.067Z - 20.0. For 90 = Z < 00, PD = 0.3333Z + 46.0. Here, Z is the Fortran variable VNK where K is the output of the final network node K. These three equations combine to form a piecewise linear approximation to the continuous, S-shaped function PD = ((Z) ae ) be where b,0 and e = 2.718 +. 11. Chances of being killed, XIC. XIC = (VNK/137.3) x 12.5 Here, the constants 137.3 and 12.5 are scale factors. SECTION 6. —SAMPLE CASES AND PRINTOUTS Appendix B contains the sample out- puts from the BAS for the following cases 1, 2, 3, 4, and BEST. For more details on the form of these printouts see the above section "Outputs." CASE 1 Frank is assigned to one of the dirti- est and least attractive jobs at the XYZ mine. Frank believes he is generally un- derpaid, he works a lot of overtime, and he feels as though he is under a great deal of pressure to "get out the prod- uct." Frank's philosophy is "you gotta fight everybody just to stay even in this life." Frank is a generally aggressive person with many pent-up emotions and a stressful home life. He is a poor observer, often flies off the handle and is prone to react inapproriately to emergencies. He has a consistent need to demonstrate his "Machoism," and he thinks training "is for sissies." Unfortunate- ly, about 20% of the time, Frank influ- ences his peers to act like him. Frank's supervisor is technically competent. But the supervisor is an inadequate planner, director, and leader; has poor interper- sonal skills; and does not communicate well with the crew. It should be noted that top management at the XYZ mine is very safety conscious. Using scales 1-17 (tables 1-17), case was coded as follows: this 17 PA = 100 PPF = 100 PJA = 100 PEC = 100 SLE = 100 PS = 1.0 JB = 0.0 FA = 1.0 IF = 0.0 XI = 0.0 X2 = 1.0 X3 = 0.0 MC = 1.0 Yl = 1.0 Y2 = 1.0 Y3 = 0.0 Y4 = 1.0 Based on the above discussions on feed- back, loops ("Building Feedback Loops"), let it be assumed that 20% of the time, as stated above in the case, Frank's behavior feeds back into the behavior of others. Therefore, FC2413 = FC2513 = FCIC = 0.20 (20% feedback). CASE 2 Assume Frank's old supervisor is re- placed by a new superior-performing su- pervisor. The corresponding change in the input data from case 1 is FA = 6.0. CASE 3 Assume Frank and his coworkers are all transferred to a better job (or assume that the old job is improved), such that the physical annoyances, production pres- sures, job ambiguity, and economic re- wards are as good as they can be. The corresponding changes in the input data from case 2 are PA = PPF = PJA = PEC = 10.0. CASE 4 Given the potentials for perverse col- league influences (Yl = Y2 = 1.0 and Y4 = 1.0), let us see what might happen if the work clique is broken up by trans- ferring Frank and his colleagues to work stations where they do not come into con- tact with each other. Hence, let us as- sume that this eliminates the old 20% be- havior feedbacks. The changes from case 3 are FC2413 = FC2513 = FCIC = 0.0. CASE BEST The best possible conditions are PA = PPF = PJA = PEC = 10.0 SLE = 0.0 PS = 1.0 JB = 0.0 FA = 6.0 IF = 0.0 XI = 1.0 X2 = 0.0 X3 = 0.0 MC = 1.0 18 Yl = Y2 = Y4 = 0.0 BC = 0.275 Y3 = 1.0 SC = 0.050 FC2413 = FC2513 = FCIC = 0.0 PC = 0.050 Note that the above inputs will cause the The printouts from the BAS for these five preprocessors to go to their minimum cases are shown in appendix B. values, i.e. , BAP = 0.0000 19 APPENDIX A.—BAS FORTRAN LISTING C THIS IS THE FORTRAN PROGRAM FINAL FOR FLOW1 CHARACTER*5 CSNO GO TO 2007 C WHEN MORE THAN ONE CASE IS BEING RUN, MAY KEEP SAME REPORT FORMAT 1701 CONTINUE 1700 WRITE(V(A)')' DO YOU WANT TO KEEP THE SAME REPORT FORMATS?' WRITE(V(A)')' TYPE 1 FOR YES, FOR NO' READ(*,1200)ISAME IF(ISAME.EQ.l) GO TO 2001 GO TO 2005 1200 F0RMAT(I2) 1201 FORMAT(Fl.O) 1202 F0RMAT(A5) 1203 FORMAT (F6.0) 1204 FORMAT (6A6) 1205 F0RMAT(F6.2) 2007 CONTINUE C NETWORK FLOW DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS; OUT =0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, C 1.0 IF DESIRED GO TO 2005 2055 IREP = 1 C RESET REPORT FORMATS ONLY 2005 WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WISH TO SEE DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS' WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 0' READ(*,1201) OUT IF(OUT.EQ.O)GO TO 2000 C IF FLOW IS TO OTHER PART OF THE PROGRAM, RETURN IT TO 2004 2004 CONTINUE C GIVE A CHOICE OF EXTRA REPORTS TO BE TYPED WRITE(*,'(A)')' THERE ARE A VARIETY OF REPORTS AND GRAPHS WHICH YO 1U' WRITE(*,'(A)')' MIGHT LIKE TO HAVE PRINTED OUT. WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1 TO CHOOSE ONE OR MORE. OTHERWISE TYPE 0' READ(*,1201) STAGF IF(STAGF.EQ.O) GO TO 2000 C NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY REPORT; SOUT=0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, 1.0 IF DESIRED WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY REPORT 1' WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 0' READ(*,1201) SOUT IF (SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 2003 C IF THE PROGRAM GOES TO ANOTHER AREA RETURN TO 2003 2003 CONTINUE C MANAGEMENT REPORT; REM=0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, 1.0 IF DESIRED WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE MANAGEMENT REPORT, TYPE 1, 10THERWISE TYPE 0' READ(*,1201)REM 20 IF(GRF.EQ.O) GO TO 2000 C IF THE FLOW GOES TO ANOTHER PART OF THE PROGRAM RETURN TO 2000 C C IF NO REPORT FORMS WERE CHOSEN, FURTHER PROCESSING WOULD BE REDUNDANT IF(OUT.EQ.l) GO TO 2000 IF(SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 2006 GOTO 2001 2006 WRITE(V(A)T NO REPORT FORMATS WERE CHOSEN. AN OUTPUT MUST BE 1CH0SEN' GO TO 2005 C 2000 0UT=1 2001 CONTINUE IF (IREP.EQ.l) GO TO 994 C INPUT DATA FOR THE VN23 PARAMETERS. 1820 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE PRE-PROCESS 10R' WRITE(V(A)T ENTER ONLY OR 1, NO OTHER' WRITE(V(A)')' FOR TRAINING: 1 = PERSON HAS BEEN TRAINED IN PATTE 1RN RECOGNITION' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = NO TRAINING, OR DO NOT KNOW' READ(*,1201)X1 WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR ALERTNESS: 1 = POOR OBSERVER, MISSES DETAILS' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = HIGHLY ALERT, VERY OBSERVANT OR DO NOT KNOW' READ(*,1201)X2 WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES: 1 = POOR DISCRIMINAT 10R' WRITE(*,'(A)')' PERSON MIGHT NOT KNOW APPROPRIATE ACTION IN AN EME 1RGENCY' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = GOOD DISCRIMINATOR, KNOWS APPROPRIATE ACTION 1R DO NOT KNOW' READ(*,1201)X3 C CALCULATE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSOR; 1ST CALCULATE NORMALIZED VALUES EX1 = (Xl)/2.0 EX2 = (X2)/1.6666 EX3 = (X3)/2.5 C CALCULATE NODE 23 VALUE VN23 = 0.55 + (EX2 + EX3) - EX1 IF(ICHGP.EQ.l) GO TO 994 C INPUT DATA FOR THE MANAGEMENT VNA PARAMETERS 1840 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSOR' WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MAY ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 1.0; ' WRITE(*,'(A)')' MODAL VALUE = 0.50' WRITE(*,'(A)')' 1.0 = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS THE MAXIMUM CONCERN POS 1SIBLE' WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR SAFETY; = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS MINIMUM ' WRITE(*,'(A)')' CONCERN FOR SAFETY. VALUES RANGE FROM TO 1.0.' READ(*,1205)XNA C CALCULATE MANAGEMENT PRE-PROCESSOR; CALCULATE EXPONENTIAL COMPONENT ADD = ((l-XNA)**2)/2.0 C DETERMINE VALUE AT NODE A VNA = (1-XNA) + ADD + 0.05 IF(ICHGM.EQ.l) GO TO 994 C INPUT DATA FOR THE VNCI PARAMETERS 21 1830 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR' WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR VOLATILITY: 1 = PERSON IS UNINFORMED,' WRITE(V(A)')' GOES OFF HALF-COCKED OR SELDOM LOOKS BEFORE HE LEA IPS' WRITE(*,'(A)')' OR TAKES UNNECESSARY RISKS' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = LOW OR NO RISK TAKING, OR DO NOT KNOW READ(*,1201)Y1 WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR MACHOISM: 1 = DOES THINGS HIS OWN WAY, HAS ' WRITE(*,'(A)')' LITTLE REGARD FOR RULES, CONVENTIONS OR PROCEDURES 1' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = LOW MACHOISM OR DO NOT KNOW' READ(*,1201)Y2 WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR CONSISTENCY: 1 = PERSON SHOWS CONSISTENT BEH 1AVI0RS' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = BEHAVIORS CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, OR DO NOT KN 10W' READ(*,1201)Y3 WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR INFLUENCE: 1 = OTHERS OFTEN EMULATE HIS BEHAVI 10R' WRITE(*,'(A)')' = OTHERS DO NOT EMULATE HIS BEHAVIOR, OR DO NOT 1KN0W READ(*,1201)Y4 C BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR, CALCULATE CORE VARIABLE WYE1 = (Yl)/2.0 WYE2 = (Y2)/2.0 CORE = (WYE1 + WYE2) IF(Y3.EQ.l) GO TO 333 CON = CORE +0.55 GO TO 334 C DISCOUNT THE CORE VARIABLE FOR CONSISTENCY 333 CON = (CORE + 0.55) * 0.6667 334 IF(Y4.EQ.O) GO TO 335 C DETERMINE THE VALUE AT NODE C VNCI = CON GO TO 336 C DISCOUNT THE CON VARIABLE IF THE PERSONS PEERS ARE NOT INFLUENCED C AND DETERMINE THE VALUE AT NODE C 335 VNCI = 0.75 * CON 336 CONTINUE C 1920 WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MUST ENTER EITHER A OR 1 . ' 1920 CONTINUE IF(ICHGB.EQ.l) GO TO 994 C INPUT DATA FOR THE THREE FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS 1860 WRITE(*,'(A)')' DO YOU WANT TO INCLUDE FEEDBACK LOOPS? TYPE 1 FOR 1 YES' WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE FOR NO.' READ(*,1200)IFEED IF(IFEED.EQ.O) GO TO 1900 WRITE(*,'(A)')' INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13.' WRITE(*,'(A)')' VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20' READ(*, 1205) FC2513 WRITE(*,'(A)')' INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13' WRITE(*,'(A)')' VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20' READ(*,1205) FC2413 22 WRITER V(A)') ' INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C WRITER ,'(A)') ' VALUE! 5 CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = READ(*, 1205)FCIC GO TO 1910 190 FC2513= 0.0 FC2413= 0.0 FCIC=0. 191 VRCI = 1.0 IF(ICHGF.EQ.l) GO TO 994 C INPUT DATA FOR THE THIRTY- ■TWO ROUTE VARIABLES C FOLLOWING ARE " DETERMINISTIC ROUTE VARIABLES VRA2 = .74 VR2J = .82 VRJ16 = = 1.0 VRA16 = ■■ .85 VR2313 = .84 VRJ13 = = .86 VR13C = = .93 VR2312 = .89 VRA12 = = .84 VRC12 = = .85 VR2324 = .88 VR1324 = .76 VR2325 = .86 VR1325 = .81 VRC10 = ■ .77 VR1610 = .84 VRJ10 - = .71 VR2310 = .76 VR1210 = .85 VR2510 = .73 VR1011 = .82 VRA11 -- - .87 VRJ11 = = .83 VRC11 = = .88 VR2511 = .69 VR11I = = .75 VR2I = .73 VRJI = .65 VR13I = = .89 VR12I = = .85 VR25I = = .79 VR24I . - .85 20' C INPUT DATA TO RUN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSOR 1811 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSOR SCA 1LES.' WRITE(V(A)T IF YOU CANNOT DETERMINE A SCALE VALUE, TYPE 0' WRITE(*,'(A)')' TO ABORT THE PROGRAM.' 1303 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER THE SCALE VALUE FOR JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCE (1PA)' WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW' READ(*,1203)PA IF(PA.EQ.O)GO TO 994 IF(PA.LT.IO.OR.PA.GT.IOO) GO TO 1301 IF(IEPR.EQ.l) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1302 C ERROR ROUTINE HERE 1301 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)PA GO TO 1303 1302 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE 1 (PPF)' WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=L0W READ(*,1203)PPF IF(PPF.EQ.0)G0 TO 994 IF(PPF.LT.IO.OR.PPF.GT.IOO) GO TO 1304 IF(IEPR.EQ.2) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1305 C ERROR ROUTINE HERE 1304 WRITE(*,'(A)T ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)PPF GO TO 1302 1305 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED JOB AND ROLE AMBIGUITY 1 (PJA)' WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW READ(*,1203)PJA IF(PJA.EQ.O) GO TO 994 IF(PJA.LT.IO.OR.PJA.GT.IOO) GO TO 1306 IF(IEPR.EQ.3) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1307 C ERROR ROUTINE 1306 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)PJA GO TO 1305 1307 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND J 10B ' WRITE(*,'(A)')' REWARD (PEC). RANGE 10-100, 10=HIGH' READ(*,1203) PEC IF(PEC.EQ.O) GO TO 994 IF(PEC.LT.10.0R.PEC.GT.100)G0 TO 1308 IF(IEPR.EQ.4) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1309 C ERROR ROUTINE 1308 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)PEC GO TO 1307 1309 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR STRESSFUL PERSONAL LIFE EVENTS l(SLE)' WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 100. ' WRITE(*,'(A)')' 100 = MAXIMUM, = NO STRESSFUL EVENTS' READ(*,1203)SLE IF(SLE.LT.O.OR.SLE.GT.IOO) GO TO 1310 IF(IEPR.EQ.5) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1311 C ERROR ROUTINE 1310 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)SLE GO TO 1309 24 1311 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITY STATE (PS 1)' WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER EITHER 1 OR 2. 1=ADEQUATE, 2=INADEQUATE' READ(*,1201)PS IF(PS.EQ.O) GO TO 994 IF(PS.LT.1.0R.PS.GT.2) GO TO 1312 IF(IEPR.EQ.6) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1313 C ERROR ROUTINE 1312 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)PS GO TO 1311 1313 WRITE(*,'(A)')' DETERMINE THE VALUE OF FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIE IS (XMA)' WRITE(V(A)T RATE THE FOLLOWING SIX CRITERIA, EITHER 1 OR 0' WRITE(*,'(A)')' 1 = HE HAS THE SKILL; 0= HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKIL IV WRITE(*,'(A)')' LEADERSHIP SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM1 WRITE(*,'(A)')' INTERPERSONAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM2 WRITE(*,'(A)T TECHNICAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM3 WRITE(V(A)T PLANNING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM4 WRITE(V(A)T COMMUNICATION SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM5 WRITE(V(A)')' DIRECTING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' READ(*,1201)XM6 XMA=XM1+XM2+XM3+XM4+XM5+XM6 IF(XMA.GT.6) GO TO 1314 GO TO 1315 1314 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)XMA GO TO 1313 1315 WRITE(V(A)T ENTER ONE NUMBER FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS (XAJB)' WRITE(V(A)')' CHOOSE EITHER: 0=AGGRESSION, ^WITHDRAWAL, 2=SUBLIM 1ATI0N' WRITE(*,'(A)')' 3=C0MPR0MISE, 4=ADAPTATI0N, 5=C0NSULTATI0N' READ(*,1203)XAJB IF(XAJB.GT.5) GO TO 1316 IF(IEPR.EQ.8) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1317 1316 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)XAJB GO TO 1315 1317 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJB 10)' WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER 1 IF INDIVIDUAL ADJUSTS OWN BEHAVIOR WITHOUT 1' WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOREMAN INVOLVEMENT OR' WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER IF FOREMAN CONTROLS INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTIVE' WRITE(*,'(A)')' BEHAVIOR' READ(*,1203)AJB0 25 1318 C 1319 200 300 400 500 510 520 521 530 531 532 533 534 535 540 541 600 601 602 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 620 650 660 700 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 720 IF(AJBO.LT.O.OR.AJBO.GT.l) GO TO 1318 IF(IEPR.EQ.9) GO TO 1810 GO TO 1319 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' WRITE(6,620)AJBO GO TO 1317 IF(IEPR.EQ.IO) GO TO 1810 IF(ICHGE.EQ.l) GO TO 994 FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT FORMAT 21X,'VN2=',3X,F7.3,3X,'VNJ=',3X,F7.3) 21X, , VN16=\2X,F7.3,3X,'VN13=\2X,F7.3) 21X,'VNC=',3X,F7.3,3X,'VN12=',2X,F7.3) 21X,'VN24=',2X,F7.3,3X,'VN25=\2X,F7.3) 21X,'VN10=\2X,F7.3,3X,'VN11=',2X,F7.3) 21X,'VNI=',3X,F7.3) 2X, 'ERROR IN FC DATA') 30X, 'ENTROPY VALUES') 21X, 'ENTROPY VALUES WITH FEEDBACK') 29X,'LOOP 24 TO 13') 29X,'LOOP 25 TO 13') 33X,'AND') 29X,'LOOP I TO C) 21X,' ') 24X,A20,1X,' = \F6.3) A1,1X,' = \F7.3) 36X,A6,1X,' = \F6.3) 38X,A6,2X,' =',F6.3) 20X,'THE FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS ARE:') 27X, 'NETWORK FLOW OUTPUTS') 20X,'THE PRE-PROCESSORS ARE:') 36X,A6,1X,'=',F6.1) 26X, 'DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT') 31X,'CASE:\A5) F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3) 9X,'THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE:') 2X, 'ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13)') 4X,A38,' = \F7.2) (II 2X, 2X, 2X, PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23)') TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA)') BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI)') 'YOU ENTERED SCALE VALUE \F4.0) 'TYPE 1 TO SEE A-D,R-T. OTHERWISE TYPE 2.') 27X, 'SUMMARY REPORT') 13X,' 14X, 'RESULTS AT LAST CYCLE:') 36X,'RAW\4X,'%MAX') 35X, 'SCORE', 3X, 'SCORE') 35X,' \3X,' ') 10X, 'BEHAVIORAL ERRORS ' ,7X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 10X, 'PSYCHOLOGICAL ERRORS' ,5X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 10X, 'MANAGEMENT ERRORS' ,8X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 27X, 'MANAGEMENT REPORT') ') 26 721 FORMAT(' \13X,' 722 FORMAT (' ' ,4X,F5.1,1X, '% OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING 2 'THESE CIRCUMSTANCES') 723 FORMATC \15X,'MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR') 725 FORMATC ',5X,'THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED', 2' UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES') ') 727 FORMATC 800 FORMATC 801 FORMATC 810 FORMATC 811 FORMATC 813 FORMATC 814 FORMATC 815 FORMATC 816 FORMATC 817 FORMATC 818 FORMATC 819 FORMATC 820 FORMATC 821 FORMATC 822 FORMATC 823 FORMATC 824 FORMATC 825 FORMATC 850 FORMATC 851 FORMATC C 1850 CONTINUE C USER WILL ENTER WRITE(V(A WRITE(V(A IT NAME:' READ(*,1202 WRITE(6,700 WRITE(6,700 WRITE(6,700 WRITE(6,700 WRITE(6,609 WRITE(6,611 WRITE(6,700 WRITE(6,612 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,613 WRITE(6,700 ,20X, >**> ' ,15X, 'ARE' , 1X,F4.2, IX, ' IN 10') \18x|'N0 BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED') \18X,'A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED') \26X,'% FATALITIES BY SOURCES') \19X,' \17X,'100-',20X,'**') ',17X,'100-') ',20X,'-',20X,'**') ',3X,'% FATALITIES', 3X, '50- \20X,'-') ',19X, '0-',20X,'**') ',3X,'% FATALITIES', 3X, '50- \32X,' ') ',30X,' ') \32X,' ') ',32X,' BEHAVIORAL SOURCES') ',30X, 'PSYCHOLOGICAL SOURCES') \32X,' MANAGEMENT SOURCES') \A6,2X,A10) ',16X,' 609 ') ') ') WRITE(6 WRITE(6 614 613 A CASE IDENTIFIER (CSNO) SEE FORMAT ')' ENTER A NAME FOR THIS CASE :' ')' EACH RUN OF THIS PROGRAM WILL HAVE A UNIQUE 5-DIGI CSNO CSNO 'JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) \PA 'PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF)',PPF 'PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) \PJA 'ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) \PEC 'STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) \SLE 'PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) \PS 'FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) \XMA 'ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) \XAJB 'ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) \AJBO 'TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) \X1 27 WRITE(6,613)'ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) \X2 WRITE(6, 613) 'DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) ',X3 WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,615) WRITE(6, 613) 'CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) \XNA WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,616) WRITE(6, 613) 'VOLATILITY (Yl) ',Y1 WRITE(6,613)'MACHOISM (Y2) ',Y2 WRITE(6, 613) 'CONSISTENCY (Y3) \Y3 WRITE(6,613)' INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) \Y4 WRITE(6,700) C DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FOREMAN CONTROLS ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS C IF AJBO = 1.0 THEN HE DOES NOT AND THE VALUE XAJB PREVAILS IF (AJBO.EQ.l) GO TO 63 IF (AJBO.EQ.O) GO TO 64 63 AJB = XAJB GO TO 39 64 CONTINUE C DETERMINE WHICH ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OCCURS UNDER THE FOREMAN'S CONTROL IF (XMA.EQ.6) GO TO 52 IF (XMA.EQ.5) GO TO 54 IF (XMA.EQ.4) GO TO 56 IF (XMA.EQ.3) GO TO 58 IF (XMA.EQ.2) GO TO 60 IF (XMA.LT.2) GO TO 61 52 AJB=5.0 GO TO 62 54 AJB = 4.0 GO TO 62 56 AJB = 3.0 GO TO 62 58 AJB - 2.0 GO TO 62 60 AJB = 1.0 GO TO 62 61 AJB = 0.0 62 CONTINUE C CALCULATE INDIVIDUAL THRESHOLD VALUES, BASED ON CATASTROPHE THEORY 39 THl=((PJA/95 + PEC/95 + SLE/95)*PS)*1 .667 TH2=( (PA/95 + PPF/95 + SLE/95)*PS)*1 .667 C CHECK FOR THRESHOLD PENETRATION IF (TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 40 C THRESHOLD WAS NOT PENETRATED AND THE IMPULSE DECAYED C CALCULATE PRE-PROCESSOR FACTORS UNDER DECAY, C BASED ON ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR MODELS C FAC = (TH1+TH2)/10.5 DP13 = (FAC**.5)/1.5 CHECK VALUE OF ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS SCORE (AJB) IF (AJB.EQ.O) GO TO 70 IF (AJB.EQ.l) GO TO 71 28 IF (AJB.EQ.2) GO TO 72 IF (AJB.EQ.3) GO TO 73 IF (AJB.EQ.4) GO TO 74 IF (AJB.EQ.5) GO TO 75 C DETERMINE PRE-PROCESSOR SCORE C WHEN AGGRESSION OCCURS 70 PI13 = DP13 GO TO 50 C WHEN WITHDRAWAL OCCURS 71 PI13 = (DP13-0.10) GO TO 76 72 PI13 = DP13-0.20 GO TO 76 C WHEN COMPROMISE OCCURS 73 PI13= (DP13-0.30) GO TO 76 C WHEN ADAPTATION OCCURS 74 PI13=(DP13-0.40) GOTO 76 C WHEN CONSULTATION OCCURS 75 PI13 = (DP13-0.50) 76 IF (PI13) 77,50,50 77 PI13 = 0.0 GO TO 50 40 CONTINUE C MAKE CATASTROPHE CALCULATIONS, USING THE CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL XP13 = (0.3*(TH1/10)**2)**.3333 YP13 = (0.3*(TH2/10)**2)**.3333 CP13 = (XP13+YP13)*1.18 C CHECK VALUE OF ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS SCORE (AJB) IF (AJB.EQ.O) GO TO 42 IF (AJB.EQ.l) GO TO 43 IF (AJB.EQ.2) GO TO 44 IF (AJB.EQ.3) GO TO 45 IF (AJB.EQ.4) GO TO 46 IF (AJB.EQ.5) GO TO 47 C WHEN AGGRESSION OCCURS DETERMINE THE PRE-PROCESSOR SCORE, C BASED ON ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR MODELS C 42 PI13 = CP13 GO TO 50 C WHEN WITHDRAWAL OCCURS 43 PI13 = (CP13-0.10) GO TO 48 C WHEN SUBLIMATION OCCURS 44 PI13 = (CP13-0.20) GO TO 48 C WHEN COMPROMISE OCCURS 45 PI13 = (CP13-0.30) GO TO 48 C WHEN ADAPTATION OCCURS 46 PI13 = (CP13-0.40) GO TO 48 29 C WHEN CONSULTATION OCCURS 47 PI13 = (CP13-0.50) 48 IF (PI13) 49,50,50 49 PI13=0.0 GO TO 50 C COMPUTE THE TERMINAL VALUES AT EACH OF THE THIRTEEN NODES 50 CONTINUE VN2 = VNA * VRA2 VNJ = VN2 * VR2J VN16 = VNJ * VRJ16 + (VNA * VRA16) VN13 = VN23 * VR2313 + (VNJ * VRJ13)+PI13 VNC = (VN13 * VR13C) + VNCI VN12 = (VN23 * VR2312) + (VNA * VRA12) + (VNC * VRC12) VN24 = (VN23 * VR2324) + (VN13 * VR1324) VN25 = (VN23 * VR2325) + (VN13 * VR1325) C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES A AND B FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING A = (VNC * VRC10) + (VN16 * VR1610) + (VNJ * VRJ10) B = (VN23 * VR2310) + (VN12 * VR1210) + (VN25 * VR2510) VN10 = A + B C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES C AND D FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING C = (VN10 * VR1011) + (VNA * VRA11) + (VNJ * VRJ11) D = (VNC * VRC11) + (VN25 * VR2511) VN11 = C + D C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES R, S AND T FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING R = (VN11 * VR11I) + (VN2 * VR2I) + (VNJ * VRJI) S = (VN13 * VR13I) + (VN12 * VR12I) + (VN25 * VR25I) T = (VN24 * VR24I) VNI = R + S + T IF (OUT. EQ.O) GOTO 21 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS C PRINT OUT BASE CASE VALUES WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,608) WRITE(6,851) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,609)CSN0 WRITE(6,700) IF(TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 4 WRITE(6,800) WRITE(6,700) GO TO 98 4 WRITE(6,801) WRITE(6,700) 98 WRITE(6,605) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6, 540) WRITE(6,530) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2, VNJ WRITE(6,300) VN16, VN13 WRITE(6,400) VNC, VN12 WRITE(6,500) VN24, VN25 30 VN10, VNI VN11 'ENVIRONMENTAL 'BEHAVIORAL 'MANAGERIAL 'PSYCHOLOGICAL (PI13)\PI13 (VNCI)WNCI (VNA)\VNA (VN23)',VN23 'FC2413',FC2413 'FC2513',FC2513 'FCIC \FCIC 'VRCI ',VRCI BE OF FOR VARIABLES A, THEY DO NOT; J = ADDED TO INPUT AT TERMINAL VARIABLE J, FOR DEBUGGING B, C, D, R, S AND T; 2 NO PRINTOUT WRITE(6,510) WRITE(6,520) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,606) WRITE(6,541) WRITE(6,541) WRITE(6,541) WRITE(6,541) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,604) WRITE(6,602) WRITE(6,602) WRITE(6,602) WRITE(6,602) WRITE(6,700) 21 CONTINUE C TWO LINES PRINT660, ACCEPT 650, J NEED TO C PRINT SUBVARIABLES IF REQUESTED BY VALUE C INPUT THE PRINT CONTROL CHARACTERS C IF J = 1 THEY PRINT OUT, OTHERWISE J = 2 IF (J.EQ.2) GO TO 3 WRITE(6,600)'A',A,'B',B WRITE(6,600)'C\C,'D\D WRITE(6,600)'R',R,'S\S,'T\T C MAKE FEEDBACKLOOP COMPUTATIONS C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE 24 TO NODE 13 3 IF (FC2413) 901,10,5 C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13 C VFR2413 IS REPLACED BY X2413 BECAUSE OF VARIABLE NAME LENGTH RESTRICTIONS 5 X2413 = FC2413 * VR1324 C VF1NI IS THE FEEDBACK VALUE AT NODE I WHERE Fl DESIGNATES C THIS AS FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13, F2 IS FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13, ETC. VF1N13 = VN13 + (VN24 * X2413)+PI13 VF1NC = VNCI + (VF1N13 * VR13C) VF1N12 = (VF1NC * VRC12) + (VN23 * VR2312) + (VNA * VRA12) = (VF1N13 * VR1324) + (VN23 * VR2324) = (VF1N13 * VR1324) + (VN23 * VR2325) SUBVARIABLES FA1 AND FBI FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING + (VNJ*VRJ10) + (VF1NC*VRC10) + (VF1N12*VR1210) + (VF1N25*VR2510) VF1N24 VF1N25 C THE USE OF FA1 = (VN16*VR1610) FBI = (VN23*VR2310) VF1N10 = FA1 + FBI C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FC1 = (VNA*VRA11) + FD1 = (VF1NC*VRC11) FC1 AND FD1 FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING (VNJ*VRJ11) + (VF1N10*VR1011) + (VF1N25*VR2511) VF1N11 = FC1+FD1 C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR1, FS1 AND FT1 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING FR1 =(VF1N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) FS1 =(VF1N13*VR13I)+(VF1N12*VR12I)+(VF1N25*VR25I) FT1=(VF1N24*VR24I) VF1NI =FR1+FS1+FT1 IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 22 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS C PRINTOUT FEEDBACK CASE FOR LOOP 24 TO 13 31 WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,531) WRITE(6,532) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF1N13 WRITE(6,400)VF1NC,VF1N12 WRITE(6,500)VF1N24,VF1N25 WRITE(6,510)VF1N10,VF1N11 WRITE(6,520)VF1NI WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,601)'FC2413\FC2413 WRITE(6,700) 22 CONTINUE C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE 25 TO NODE 13 10 IF (FC2513) 901,20,11 C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13 C VFR2513 IS HEREAFTER REPLACED BY X2513 BECAUSE OF C VARIABLE NAME LENGTH RESTRICTIONS 11 X2513 = FC2513*VR1325 C START FROM DIFFERENT NODE 13 VALUES DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT C FEEDBACK ROUTE 24 TO 13 EXISTS C IF ROUTE 2413 EXISTS, THEN START FROM C VF1N13. OTHERWISE, START FROM VN13. IF (FC2413) 901,12,13 12 VF2N13 = VN13+(VN25*X2513) GO TO 14 13 VF2N13=VF1N13+(VN25*X2513)+PI13 14 VF2NC=VNCI+(VF2N13*VR13C) VF2N12=(VF2NC*VRC12)+(VN23*VR2312)+(VNA*VRA12) VF2N24=(VF2N13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) VF2N25=(VF2N13*VR1325)+(VN23*VR2325) C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FA2 AND FB2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING FA2 = (VN16*VR1610)+(VNJ*VRJ10)+(VF2NC*VRC10) FB2 =(VN23*VR2310)+(VF2N12*VR1210)+(VF2N25*VR2510) VF2N10 = FA2 + FB2 C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FC2 AND FD2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING FC2 =(VNA*VRA11)+(VNJ*VRJ11)+(VF2N10*VR1011) FD2=(VF2NC*VRC11)+(VF2N25*VR2511) VF2N11 = FC2 + FD2 C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR2, FS2 & FT2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING FR2=(VF2N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) FS2=(VF2N13*VR13I)+(VF2N12*VR12I)+(VF2N25*VR25I) FT2= (VF2N24*VR24I) VF2NI = FR2 + FS2 + FT2 IF (OUT.EQ.O)GO TO 23 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,531) IF (FC2413) 901,17,16 16 WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,532) 32 WRITE(6,534) 17 WRITE(6,533) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF2N13 WRITE(6,400)VF2NC,VF2N12 WRITE(6,500)VF2N24,VF2N25 WRITE(6,510)VF2N10,VF2N11 WRITE(6,520)VF2NI WRITE(6,700) IF (FC2513.GT.0.AND.FC2413.GT.0) GO TO 18 IF (FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 19 IF (FC2413.EQ.0) GO TO 19 18 WRITE(6,601)'FC2413\FC2413 19 WRITE(6,601)'FC2513\FC2513 WRITE(6,700) 23 CONTINUE C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE I TO NODE C 20 IF (FCIC) 901,902,30 C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C 30 VFRIC = FCIC * VRCI C START FROM DIFFERENT VALUES, DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT OTHER C FEEDBACK ROUTES EXIST IF(FC2413.EQ.0.AND.FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 31 IF(FC2413.GT.O.AND.FC2513.GT.O) GO TO 32 IF(FC2413.EQ.0.AND.FC2513.GT.0) GO TO 33 IF(FC2413.GT.0.AND.FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 34 C THE FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE ONLY FEEDBACK ROUTE C I TO C EXISTS 31 VF3NC =VNC+(VNI*VFRIC) VF3N12=VN12+(VF3NC*VRC12) VF3N24=VN24 VF3N25=VN25 VF3N10=VN10+(VF3NC*VRC10)+(VF3N12*VR1210) VF3N11=VN11+(VF3N10*VR1011) VF3NI=VNI+(FV3N11*VR11I)+(VF3N12*VR12I) IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 24 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,531) WRITE(6,535) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ WRITE(6,300)VN16,VN13 WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 WRITE(6,520)VF3NI WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC WRITE(6,700) 24 CONTINUE GO TO 902 33 C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 24 TO 13, C 25 TO 13 AND I TO C ALL EXIST 32 VF2N13=VF1N13+(VN25*X2513)+(VNI*VFRIC)+PI13 VF2NC=VNC+(VF2N13*VR13C) VF3NC=VF2NC+(VF2NI*VFRIC) VF3N12=(VF3NC*VRC12)+VF2N12 VF3N24=(VF2N13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) VF3N25=(VF2N13*VR1325)+(VN23*VR2325) C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FA3 AND FB3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING FA3 =(VN16*VR1610)+(VNJ*VRJ10)+(VF3NC*VRC10) FB3=(VN23*VR2310)+(VF3N12*VR1210)+(VF3N25*VR2510) VF3N10=FA3 + FB3 C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FC3 AND FD3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING FC3=(VNA*VRA11)+(VNJ*VRJ11)+(VF3N10*VR1011) FD3=(VF3NC*VRC11)+(VF3N25*VR2511) VF3N11=FC3 + FD3 C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR3,FS3 & FT3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING FR3=(VF3N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) FS3=(VF2N13*VR13I)+(VF3N12*VR12I)+(VF3N25*VR25I) FT3=(VF3N24*VR24I) VF3NI=FR3+FS3+FT3 IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 25 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS WRITE (6,700) WRITE [6,540) WRITE [6,531) WRITE [6,535) WRITE [6,534) WRITE [6,533) WRITE [6,534] WRITE [6,532) WRITE [6,540) WRITE [6,200) VN2,VNJ WRITE [6,300) VN16,VF2N13 WRITE [6,400) VF3NC,VF3N12 WRITE [6,500) VF3N24,VF3N25 WRITE [6,510) VF3N10,VF3N11 WRITE [6,520) VF3NI WRITE [6,700) WRITE [6,601) 'VFRIC',VFRIC WRITE [6,601) 'FC2413\FC2413 WRITE [6,601) 'FC2513\FC2513 2E » CONTINUE GO TO 902 C THE FOLLOWING IS 1 FOR THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 2413 AND C EXIST BUT ROUTE 2513 DOES NOT IC 34 VF3NC=VF1NC+(VF1NI*VFRIC) VF3N12=VF1N12+(VF3NC*VRC12) VF3N24=VF1N24 VF3N25=VF1N25 VF3N10=VF1N10+(VF3NC*VRC10) VF3N11=VF1N11+(VF3N10*VR1011) VF3NI=VF1NI+(VF3N11*VR11I)+(VF1N12*VR12I) IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 26 34 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,531) WRITE(6,535) WRITE(6,534) WRITE(6,532) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF1N13 WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 WRITE(6,520) VF3NI WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC WRITE(6,700) 26 CONTINUE GO TO 902 C THE FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 2513 AND IC C EXIST BUT ROUTE 2413 DOES NOT 33 VX13=(VN25*X2513)+VN13+PI13 VF3NC=VNCI+(VX13*VR13C)+(VNI*VFRIC) VF3N12=(VN23*VR2312)+(VNA*VRA12)+(VF3NC*VRC12) VF3N24=(VX13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) VF3N25=VN25 VF3N10=(VF3NC*VRC10)+VNC VF3N11=(VF3N10*VR1011)+VN11 VF3NI=(VF3N11*VR11I)+VNI IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 902 C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,531) WRITE(6,535) WRITE(6,534) WRITE(6,533) WRITE(6,540) WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ WRITE(6,300)VN16,VX13 WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 WRITE(6,520)VF3NI WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC 902 CONTINUE IF (SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 27 C PRINT NETWORK SUMMARY REPORTS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,710) WRITE(6,711) WRITE(6,700) 35 WRITE(6,609)CSNO IF (TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 28 WRITE(6,800) GO TO 29 28 WRITE(6,801) 29 CONTINUE WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,712) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,713) WRITE(6,714) WRITE(6,715) C MAKE %MAX CALCULATIONS FOR THE SUMMARY REPORT C SELECT THE MOST RECENT DATA IF (FC2413.GT.0.OR.FC2513.GT.0.OR.FCIC.GT.0) GO TO 99 Z = VNI X = VN16 Y = VN12 GO TO 97 99 Z = VF3NI X = VN16 Y = VF3N12 97 VNIM = (Z/150)*100.0 IF(VNIM.GT.IOO) GO TO 9 GO TO 8 9 VNIM=100 8 VN12M = (Y/40)*100. IF(VN12M.GT.100) GO TO 2 GO TO 1 2 VN12M=100 1 VN16M = (X/3)*100. IF(VN16M.GT.100) GO TO 91 GO TO 93 91 VN16M=100 93 WRITE(6,716) Z,VNIM WRITE(6,717)Y,VN12M WRITE(6,718)X,VN16M WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) 27 IF (REM.EQ.O) GO TO 15 C PRINT MANAGEMENT REPORT WRITE(6,720) WRITE(6,721) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,609)CSNO WRITE(6,700) C MAKE % DEATHS (PD) CALCULATION IF (Z.GT.30) GO TO 201 PD = (.40)*Z GO TO 6 201 IF(Z.GT.90) GO TO 202 PD = ((1.0667)*Z)-20.0 GO TO 6 202 PD = ((.3333)*Z)+46.0 36 IF (PD.GT.100) GO TO 7 GO TO 6 7 PD=100 C MAKE CHANCES OF BEING KILLED (XIC) CALCULATIONS 6 XIC = (Z/137.3) * 12.5 C 700??? WRITE(6,700) C 700??? WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,722)PD WRITE(6,723) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,725) IF(XIC.GT.10)G0 TO 41 IF(XIC.EQ.IO) GO TO 41 WRITE(6,727)XIC GOTO 35 41 CIC = 9.99 WRITE(6,727)CIC 15 CONTINUE 35 IF(GRF.EQ.O) GOTO 994 C THIS ROUTINE GENERATES GRAPHICS BY PRINTING BAR CHARTS C OF THE % FATALITIES C C PRINT HEADINGS WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,810) WRITE(6,811) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,609)CSN0 C C CALCULATE THE VARIABLES THAT DETERMINE THE HEIGHT OF THE BAR C CHARTS, Nl, N2 AND N3, WHICH ARE THE NUMBERS OF LINE DISTANCES C BELOW THE 100% POINT ON THE ORDINATE. Nl= (100.00-VNIM)/10.0 N2 = (100.00-VN12M)/10.0 N3 = (100.00 -VN16M)/10.0 C C GENERATE BEHAVIORAL GRAPHICS REPORT C PRINT REPORT HEADING C WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,823) WRITE(6,820) WRITE(6,700) IF (N1.LT.5) GO TO 110 C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE 37 WRITE(6,814) DO 100, I = 1,4 WRITE(6,817) 100 CONTINUE IF (N1.EQ.5) GO TO 102 WRITE(6,819) IF (N1.EQ.6) GO TO 105 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER M = (Nl-6) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA DO 107, 1=1, M WRITE(6,817) 107 CONTINUE IF (N1.EQ.10) GO TO 104 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 105 N = (10-N1) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA DO 108, 1= 1,N WRITE(6,815) 108 CONTINUE GO TO 104 C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS 5 C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 102 WRITE(6,816) DO 103, 1=1,4 WRITE(6,815) 103 CONTINUE C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 104 WRITE(6,818) GO TO 120 C C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE Nl IS LESS THAN 5 C 110 IF (Nl.EQ.O) GO TO 117 WRITE(6,814) IF (Nl.EQ.l) GO TO 118 C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA N = Nl-1 DO 111, I = 1,N WRITE(6,817) 111 CONTINUE C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA M = 5 - Nl DO 112, I = 1,M WRITE(6,815) 112 CONTINUE GO TO 116 C CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS ZERO 117 WRITE(6,813) C CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 118 DO 114, I = 1,4 WRITE(6,815) 114 CONTINUE C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 38 116 WRITE(6,816) DO 113, I = 1,4 WRITE(6,815) 113 CONTINUE WRITE(6,818) C C GENERATE PSYCHOLOGICAL GRAPHICS REPORT C 120 WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,824) WRITE(6,821) WRITE(6,700) IF (N2.LT.5) GO TO 131 C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WRITE(6,814) DO 121, I = 1,4 WRITE(6,817) 121 CONTINUE IF (N2.EQ.5) GO TO 123 WRITE(6,819) IF (N2.EQ.6) GO TO 126 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER M= (N2-6) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA DO 128, 1=1, M WRITE(6,817) 128 CONTINUE IF(N2.EQ.10) GO TO 125 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 126 N = (10-N2) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA DO 129, 1=1, N WRITE(6,815) 129 CONTINUE GO TO 125 C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS 5 C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 123 WRITE(6,816) DO 124, 1=1,4 WRITE(6,815) 124 CONTINUE C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 125 WRITE(6,818) GO TO 141 C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE N2 IS LESS THAN 5 C 131 IF (N2.EQ.0) GO TO 138 WRITE(6,814) IF (N2.EQ.1) GO TO 139 C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA N = N2-1 DO 132, 1=1, N WRITE(6,817) 39 132 CONTINUE C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA M=5-N2 DO 133, 1=1, M WRITE(6,815) 133 CONTINUE GO TO 137 C CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS ZERO 138 WRITE(6,813) C CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 139 DO 135, 1=1,4 WRITE(6,815) 135 CONTINUE C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 137 WRITE(6,816) DO 134, 1=1,4 WRITE(6,815) 134 CONTINUE WRITE(6,818) C C GENERATE MANAGEMENT GRAPHICS REPORT C 141 WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,700) WRITE(6,825) WRITE(6,822) WRITE(6,700) IF (N3.LT.5) GO TO 160 C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WRITE(6,814) DO 150, 1=1,4 WRITE(6,817) 150 CONTINUE IF (N3.EQ.5) GO TO 152 WRITE(6,819) IF (N3.EQ.6) GO TO 155 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER M = (N3-6) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA DO 157, 1=1, M WRITE(6,817) 157 CONTINUE IF (N3.EQ.10) GO TO 154 C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER AND RUN THE DO LOOP 155 N = (10-N3) C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA DO 158, 1=1, N WRITE(6,815) 158 CONTINUE GO TO 154 C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS 5 C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 152 WRITE(6,816) DO 153, 1=1,4 40 WRITE(6,815) 153 CONTINUE C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 154 WRITE(6,818) GO TO 994 C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE N3 IS LESS THAN 5 C 160 IF (N3.EQ.0) GO TO 167 WRITE(6,814) IF (N3.EQ.1) GO TO 168 C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA N =N3-1 DO 161, 1=1, N WRITE(6,817) 161 CONTINUE C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA M=5-N3 DO 162, 1= 1,M WRITE(6,815) 162 CONTINUE GO TO 166 C CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS ZERO 167 WRITE(6,813) C CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 168 DO 164, 1= 1,4 WRITE(6,815) 164 CONTINUE C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 166 WRITE(6,816) DO 163, I = 1,4 WRITE(6,815) 163 CONTINUE WRITE(6,818) WRITE(6,700) GO TO 1890 901 WRITE(6,521) C SET VALUES FOR CHANGES IN PROGRAM, FOR CONTINUE INPUT C AS FOR NEW CASE, 1 TO RETURN TO LINE 994 TO CHANGE MENU C TEST AS I.E., IF( .EQ. ) GO TO APPROPRIATE PLACE 1890 ICHGE=0 C ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PRECESSOR CHANGE ICHGP=0 C PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE ICHGB=0 C BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE ICHGM=0 C MANAGEMENT PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE ICHGF=0 C FEEDBACK COEFICIENT CHANGE IRUN=0 C RUN PROGRAM AFTER CHANGES IREP=0 C CHANGE REPORT FORMATS FOR RUN 994 WRITE(*,'(A) , )'ODO YOU WANT TO:' 41 WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(6 WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* WRITE(* READ(*,1200) IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO IF(ICHO '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) 700) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) '(A) EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ.8 EQ.O GT.8 ')' CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSORS: r ')' CHANGE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 2' ')' CHANGE BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 3' ')' CHANGE MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 4' ')' CHANGE FEEDBACK LOOPS: 5' ')' START A NEW CASE: 6' ')' CHANGE REPORT FORMATS: 7' ')' RUN THE PROGRAM WITH THESE CHANGES: 8' ')' QUIT THIS PROGRAM: 0' ')' YOU WILL BE RETURNED TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH' ')' CHANGE UNTIL YOU ARE READY TO RE-RUN THE CASE,' ')' START A NEW CASE, OR QUIT' ')' ENTER NUMBER OF YOUR CHOICE' ICHO ) GO TO 996 ) GO TO 992 ) GO TO 993 ) GO TO 991 ) GO TO 997 ) GO TO 1701 ) GO TO 2055 ) GO TO 1850 ) GO TO 995 ) GO TO 994 C LOOPS FOR CHANGES IN VARIABLES VALUES 991 ICHGM=1 GO TO 1840 992 ICHGP=1 GO TO 1820 993 ICHGB=1 GO TO 1830 C IQUIT IS VARIABLE TO INDICATE ENDING OF PROGRAM 995 WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MAY NOW TERMINATE THE PROGRAM. WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1 TO CONTINUE.' READ(*, 1200) IQUIT IF(IQUIT.EQ.0)GO TO 999 IF(IQUIT.EQ.l) GO TO 994 996 ICHGE=1 '(A)')' CHANGE ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS, OR ' '(A)')' INDICATE THE INDIVIDUAL PRE-PROCESSOR TO BE CHANGE TYPE TO END,' 1810 WRITE(* WRITE(* D.' WRITE(* ANGE,' WRITE(* WRITE(* 10' WRITE(* r WRITE(* 2' WRITE(* 3' WRITE(* '(A)')' THE PROGRAM WILL RETURN TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH CH '(A)')' UNTIL YOU INDICATE YOU ARE FINISHED.' '(A)')' CHANGE ALL ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS '(A)')' JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) '(A)')' PERCEIVED PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE (PPF) '(A)')' PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY AND ESTEEM (PJA) '(A)')' PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND JOB REWARDS (PEC) 42 1 4' WRITE(*, 1 5' '(A)') WRITE(*, 1 6' '(A)') WRITE(*, 1 7' '(A)') WRITE(*, 1 8' '(A)') WRITE(*, 1 9' '(A)') WRITE(*, 1 0' '(A)') ' STRESSFUL LIFE EVENT SCORE (SLE) ' PHYSIOLOGICAL STATE (PS) ' FOREMANS MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) ' ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) ' ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) ' FINISHED CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS C THE VARIABLE IEPR IS AN INDICATOR FOR WHICH PRE-PROCESSOR TO CHANGE READ(*,1200)IEPR IF(IEPR.EQ.IO) GO TO 1811 IF(IEPR.EQ.l) GO TO 1303 IF(IEPR.EQ.2) GO TO 1302 IF(IEPR.EQ.3) GO TO 1305 IF(IEPR.EQ.4) GO TO 1307 IF(IEPR.EQ.5) GO TO 1309 IF(IEPR.EQ.6) GO TO 1311 IF(IEPR.EQ.7) GO TO 1313 IF(IEPR.EQ.8) GO TO 1315 IF(IEPR.EQ.9) GO TO 1317 IF(IEPR.EQ.O) GO TO 994 C PUT ERROR ROUTINE HERE 997 ICHGF=1 GO TO 1860 999 END 43 APPENDIX B. —PRINTOUTS FROM BAS FOR SAMPLE CASES BAS QUESTION AND ANSWER DIALOG FOR CASE #1 IF YOU WISH TO SEE DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 1 THERE ARE A VARIETY OF REPORTS AND GRAPHS WHICH YOU MIGHT LIKE TO HAVE PRINTED OUT. TYPE 1 TO CHOOSE ONE OR MORE. OTHERWISE TYPE 1 IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY REPORT TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 1 IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE MANAGEMENT REPORT, TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 1 IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE GRAPH OF THE RESULTS, TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 1 ENTER DATA FOR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE PRE-PROCESSOR ENTER ONLY OR 1, NO OTHER FOR TRAINING: 1 = PERSON HAS BEEN TRAINED IN PATTERN RECOGNITION = NO TRAINING, OR DO NOT KNOW FOR ALERTNESS: 1 = POOR OBSERVER, MISSES DETAILS = HIGHLY ALERT, VERY OBSERVANT OR DO NOT KNOW 1 FOR DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES: 1 = POOR DISCRIMINATOR PERSON MIGHT NOT KNOW APPROPRIATE ACTION IN AN EMERGENCY = GOOD DISCRIMINATOR, KNOWS APPROPRIATE ACTION OR DO NOT KNOW 1 ENTER DATA FOR MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSOR YOU MAY ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE =0.50 1.0 = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS THE MAXIMUM CONCERN POSSIBLE FOR SAFETY; = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS MINIMUM CONCERN FOR SAFETY. VALUES RANGE FROM TO 1.0. 1.0 ENTER DATA FOR BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR FOR VOLATILITY: 1 = PERSON IS UNINFORMED, GOES OFF HALF-COCKED OR SELDOM LOOKS BEFORE HE LEAPS OR TAKES UNNECESSARY RISKS = LOW OR NO RISK TAKING, OR DO NOT KNOW 1 FOR MACHOISM: 1 = DOES THINGS HIS OWN WAY, HAS LITTLE REGARD FOR RULES, CONVENTIONS OR PROCEDURES = LOW MACHOISM OR DO NOT KNOW 1 FOR CONSISTENCY: 1 = PERSON SHOWS CONSISTENT BEHAVIORS = BEHAVIORS CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, OR DO NOT KNOW 44 DO YOU WANT TO INCLUDE FEEDBACK LOOPS? TYPE 1 FOR YES TYPE FOR NO. 1 INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13. VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 .20 INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13 VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 .20 INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 .20 ENTER DATA FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSOR SCALES. IF YOU CANNOT DETERMINE A SCALE VALUE, TYPE TO ABORT THE PROGRAM. ENTER THE SCALE VALUE FOR JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCE (PA) RANGE 10-100, 10=L0W 100 ENTER A VALUE FOR PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE (PPF) RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW 100 ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED JOB AND ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW 100 ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND JOB REWARD (PEC). RANGE 10-100, 10=HIGH 100 ENTER A VALUE FOR STRESSFUL PERSONAL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 100. 100 = MAXIMUM, = NO STRESSFUL EVENTS 100 ENTER A VALUE FOR PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITY STATE (PS) ENTER EITHER 1 OR 2. 1=ADEQUATE, 2=INADEQUATE 1 DETERMINE THE VALUE OF FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) RATE THE FOLLOWING SIX CRITERIA, EITHER 1 OR 1 = HE HAS THE SKILL; 0= HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILL LEADERSHIP SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 1 INTERPERSONAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR TECHNICAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR PLANNING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR COMMUNICATION SKILL, ENTER 1 OR DIRECTING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR ENTER ONE NUMBER FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS (XAJB) CHOOSE EITHER: 0=AGGRESSION, ^WITHDRAWAL, 2=SUBLIMATI0N 3=C0MPR0MISE, 4=ADAPTATI0N, 5=C0NSULTATI0N 45 ENTER A VALUE FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) ENTER 1 IF INDIVIDUAL ADJUSTS OWN BEHAVIOR WITHOUT FOREMAN INVOLVEMENT OR ENTER IF FOREMAN CONTROLS INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR ENTER A NAME FOR THIS CASE : EACH RUN OF THIS PROGRAM WILL HAVE A UNIQUE 5-DIGIT NAME: #1 File name missing or blank - Please enter name UNIT 6? CASE1 DO YOU WANT TO: CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSORS: 1 CHANGE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 2 CHANGE BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 3 CHANGE MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 4 CHANGE FEEDBACK LOOPS: 5 START A NEW CASE: 6 CHANGE REPORT FORMATS: 7 RUN THE PROGRAM WITH THESE CHANGES: 8 QUIT THIS PROGRAM: YOU WILL BE RETURNED TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH CHANGE UNTIL YOU ARE READY TO RE-RUN THE CASE, START A NEW CASE, OR QUIT ENTER NUMBER OF YOUR CHOICE YOU MAY NOW TERMINATE THE PROGRAM. TYPE 1 TO CONTINUE. TYPE TO END, 46 BAS OUTPUTS FOR CASE #1 THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13) JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 100.00 PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 100.00 PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 100.00 ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 1.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 47 DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT CASE : #1 A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED NETWORK FLOW OUTPUTS ENTROPY VALUES WITH FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13 AND LOOP 25 TO 13 VN2= .037 VNJ= .030 VN16= .073 VN13= 5.424 VNC= 6.594 VN12= 7.026 VN24= 5.486 VN25= 5.726 VN10= 16.490 VN11= 23.344 VNI = 37.541 FC2413 .200 FC2513 .200 ENTROPY VALUES WITH FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C AND LOOP 25 TO 13 AND LOOP 24 TO 13 VN2= .037 VNJ= .030 VN16= .073 VN13= 9.806 VNC= 20.371 VN12= 24.342 VN24= 8.817 VN25= 9.276 VN10= 44.409 VN11= 60.811 VNI = 89.896 VFRIC = .200 FC2413 .200 FC2513 .200 48 SUMMARY REPORT CASE:#1 A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED RESULTS AT LAST CYCLE: RAW %MAX SCORE SCORE BEHAVIORAL ERRORS 89.9 60. PSYCHOLOGICAL ERRORS 24.3 61. MANAGEMENT ERRORS .1 2. MANAGEMENT REPORT CASE:#1 75.9 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE 8.18 IN 10 49 % FATALITIES BY SOURCES CASE:#1 100 BEHAVIORAL SOURCES % FATALITIES 50- 0- ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 100- PSYCHOLOGICAL SOURCES % FATALITIES 50- ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 100- % FATALITIES 50- MANAGEMENT SOURCES ** ** 50 CASE: #2 THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 100.00 PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 100.00 PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) - 100.00 ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 MANAGEMENT REPORT CASE: #2 57.2 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE 6.59 IN 10 51 CASE: #3 THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13) JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 10.00 PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 MANAGEMENT REPORT CASE: #3 37.4 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE 4.90 IN 10 52 CASE: #4 THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 10.00 STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 MANAGEMENT REPORT CASE: #4 6.8 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE 1.54 IN 10 53 CASE: BEST THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 10.00 STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = .00 PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = 5.00 ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = 1.00 ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = .00 DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = .00 TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) VOLATILITY (Yl) = .00 MACHOISM (Y2) = .00 CONSISTENCY (Y3) = 1.00 INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = .00 MANAGEMENT REPORT CASE : BEST .6 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE .13 IN 10 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1988 - 547-000/80,063 | N "|- _ B (j gp MINES PGH PA 28749 o c U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Min e* Prod, and Distr. 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