]\ayh^ /ej^/^ HB 903 Copy 2 A FURTHER NOTE ON WAR AND POPULATION RAYMOND PEARL IReprinted from Science, N. S., Vol. LIIL, No. 1862, Pages 120-121, February 4, WSl"] s-t) ^s^-- IReprinted from Science, N. S., Vol. LIIL, No. 1362, Pages 120-121, February 4,1921] A FURTHER NOTE ON WAR AND POPULATION i I In a note publislied last summer^ I drew at- tention to the course of the ratio in the principal belligerent countries of Eu- rope between 1913 and 1918. All of the curves presented, with the single exception of that for Prussia, ended on a high point in 1918. The question was raised as to what would be their course after that year, and it was shown that England and Wales gave a value of 73 per cent, for 1919 against 92 per cent, for the high point in 1918. The first three quarters of the year 1920 give for England and Wales a value of 46.8 per cent. This is 10 points lower than the figure for 1913 ! For every death England had more than two births. The Journal Officiel has recently published the 1919 figures for France (77 non-invaded departments only) to the following effect: = 154 per cent. B 413379 This figure compares (for the same territory) with 198 in 1918, 179 in 1917, 193 in 1916, 169 in 1915, 110 in 1914, and 97 in 1913. In other words, in the next year immediately following the cessation of hostilities France's death-birth ratio came back to less than that of 1915, the first whole year of the war. With an increase of 157 per cent, in marriages in 1919 over 1918 there seems little risk in predicting that 1920 will show a ratio not far from 100, which will 1 Papers from the Department of Biometry and Vital Statistics, school of hygiene and public health, Johns Hopkins tTniveraity, No. 27. 2 Pearl, E., Science, N. S., Vol. LI., pp. 553- ifi«. 1920. be about the normal prewar status, France having had for some time a nearly stationary population. The 1920 vital index for France may well prove to be considerably below 100. ' Another, and even more striking illustra- tion of the exceedingly transitory effect of war upon the rate of population growth, is seen in the figures for the City of Vienna. Probably no large city suffered so severely from the war as did this capital. Tet observe what has hapi)ened, as set forth in Table I. To this table I have added, for the sake of rounding out the data of this and the former paper, the death-birth ratios of the United States Kegis- tration Area for as many years as they are available, and for England and Wales, 1912 to 1920 (first three quarters of latter year). TABLE I Percentage of Deaths to Births U. S. Birth Year City at Vieima Registration Area and Walea 1912 80 56 1913 85 — 57 1914 86 — 59 1915 113 56 69 1916 143 59 65 1917 195 57 75 1918 229 73 92 1919 162 58 73 1920 — — 473 These figures are shown graphically in Fig- ure 1. We note that : 1. The high point of the Vienna curve in 1918, 229 per cent., is higher than that for France (198 per cent.), and probably higher than for any other equally large aggregate of population in the world. aPirst three quarters of year only. SCIENCE YEAR Fig. 1. Showing the change in percentage which deaths were of births in each of the years 1912 to 1919 for Vienna ( ) ; 1915 to 1919 for the United States ( ) ; and 1912 to 1920 for Eng- land and Wales ( ) . 2. The drop in 1919 is shaxp in its angle and marked in its amount, the percentage coming down nearly to the 1916 figure — and this in spite of the very distressing conditions which prevailed in Vienna throughout 1919. It is not at all improbable, indeed rather it is prob- able that Vienna will in 1920 show a ratio ujider 100 — that is, more births than deaths. If this happens she will have begun absolute natural increase again in only the second year after the cessation of hostilities, during the last year of which she had 2i persons die for every one bom. 3. The war produced no effect upon the death-birth ratio in this country, as would have been expected. The influenza epidemic in 1918 raised the curve a little, but it promptly dropped back to normal in 1919. 4. In England and Wales the provisional fig- ure indicates that 1920 will show a lower vital index than that country has had for many years. Altogether, these examples, which include the effects of the most destructive war known to modem man, and the most devastating epi- demic since the Middle Ages, furnish a sub-, stantial demonstration of the fact that popula- tion growth is a highly seK-r^ulated biolog- ical phenomenon. Those persons who see in war and pestilence any absolute solution of the world problem of population, as postulated by Malthus, are optimists indeed. As a matter of fact, all history definitely tells us, and recent history fairly shouts in its emphasis, that such events make the merest ephemeral flicker in the steady onward march of population growth. Raymond Pearl •i-athor LIBRARY OF CONGRESS 013 734 524 9 9