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 An Annotated Bibliography 
 
 1974-1978 
 
 U.S. Department of Commerce 
 Economic Development Administration 
 
Economic Research Studies of the 
 Economic Development Administration 
 
 An Annotated Bibliography 
 
 1974-1978 
 
 December 1980 
 
 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 
 
 Philip M. Klutznick, Secretary 
 
 Robert T. Hall, Assistant Secretary 
 for Economic Development 
 
 Victor A. Hausner, Deputy Assistant Secretary 
 for Economic Development Policy and Planning 
 
 O 
 
 a. 
 
 & 
 
 3 
 

 Digitized by the Internet Archive 
 
 in 2012 with funding from 
 
 LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation 
 
 http://www.archive.org/details/economicresearcOOunit 
 
Foreword 
 
 This Annotated Bibliography provides a comprehensive listing of the research 
 supported by the Economic Research Division of the Economic Development Ad- 
 ministration (EDA) from 1974 to 1978. It serves as a companion piece to an earlier 
 volume which covered the period 1965-1973. EDA will publish research bibliog- 
 raphies for 1979 and 1980 in Fiscal Year 1981. 
 
 This bibliography should prove helpful to those concerned with obtaining in- 
 formation on the regional and local economic development problems of the Nation. 
 The subject classification system developed for this publication will prove very 
 useful to the researchers and practitioners of economic development who need a 
 framework for quick reference to the numerous and varied research efforts of the 
 past years. 
 
 The preparation of this document required the dedication and contributions of 
 many people, including Victor A. Hausner, EDA Deputy Assistant Secretary for 
 Policy and Planning, through whose leadership the report was prepared. 
 
 This volume is dedicated to Dr. Jeanne McFarland, the director of the 
 Economic Research Division, who passed away as the volume went to print. Dr. 
 McFarland has contributed much to the advancement of the Nation's economic 
 development efforts. Her talents and enthusiasm will be sorely missed. 
 
 (jU* 
 
 3 b^JUL, 
 
 Robert T. Hall 
 
 Assistant Secretary for Economic Development 
 
 in 
 

Introduction 
 
 Federal economic development programs are concerned with the spatial or geo- 
 graphic dimensions of national economic performance. What are the impacts of 
 structural economic changes on the economies of multistate regions, States, sub- 
 state areas, communities and even neighborhoods, and the economic well-being of 
 their residents? What public actions can and should be taken to address the 
 economic disparities between regions and between communities, to ameliorate the 
 economic distress of regions and communities and particular populations within 
 those areas, and to promote the development of strong regional and local private 
 economies and private sector job opportunities? 
 
 In the post World War II years, for the most part a period of strong national 
 economic expansion for the United States, the emphasis of Federal economic 
 development programs has largely been a concern for a more equitable distribution 
 of economic activity, income and jobs, first with regard to the underdeveloped rural 
 areas of the country experiencing outmigration of population and more recently 
 with regard to the mature industrial areas experiencing a decline in manufacturing 
 activity and population. However, recent concerns about U.S. national economic 
 performance, e.g., more modest economic growth, declining productivity, persistent 
 inflation, impacted basic industrial sectors, and increased foreign import penetra- 
 tion, have fostered renewed interest in the developmental aspects of regional pro- 
 grams to more fully employ underutilized human and physical resources — a return 
 to the beginnings of our Nation and the use of public investments to geographically 
 expand economic growth. 
 
 The following annotated bibliography is intended as a quick reference to the 
 substantial volume of research supported by the Economic Research Division (ERD) 
 of the Economic Development Administration since 1974. But more than that it is a 
 record of the recent evolution of Federal economic development concerns and the 
 increasingly effective attempt to design a research strategy which is supportive of 
 Federal economic development policy and program formulation and the improved 
 practice of regional and local economic development. 
 
 With rare exceptions — Appalachia is one — regional economic development in 
 the United States has not focused on multistate economic regions, but rather on 
 local economic investment. This is the case even with development supported by 
 multistate institutions. EDA research has attempted to remedy this situation with 
 substantial attention to the economic trends and problems of most of the major 
 multistate regions of the United States. Regional economic trends and their impacts 
 on local economic health now play a far more prominent place in economic develop- 
 ment policymaking. EDA has also supported an increase in the research and plan- 
 ning capacity of regional development organizations. 
 
 The concerns of the 1950's and 1960's with rural underdevelopment, economic 
 distress and population outmigration were joined in the 1970's by rising urban 
 economic and fiscal distress related to structural and geographic changes in the 
 manufacturing base of the Nation and the concentrations of poor and structurally 
 unemployed populations in central cities. EDA has devoted substantial attention to 
 the an'alysis of urban economic problems and their relationship to sectoral trends. 
 What are the alternative economic futures open to the Nation's cities? 
 
EDA has also continued to address rural economic change with particular at- 
 tention to recent trends of industrial and population migration to nonmetropolitan 
 areas, the benefits of such growth for the rural underemployed and unemployed, 
 and the impacts of Federal economic development investments on distressed rural 
 areas. 
 
 We have been concerned at EDA with exploring subnational economic prob- 
 lems at all of the critical geographic levels — multistate regional, State, urban, and 
 rural — and examining their interrelationships. The context and constraints for pub- 
 lic intervention at various geographic levels must be established if economic develop- 
 ment programs are to be successful. 
 
 Targeting Federal development assistance to those areas and communities most 
 in need and where only concentrations of assistance can be beneficial, has become 
 increasingly important, particularly in a period of inflation and tight budget limita- 
 tions. EDA's research program has addressed the question of data availability and 
 appropriate indicators of economic distress. The Agency has been concerned with 
 differentiating between various forms of economic distress, cyclical and structural, 
 underdevelopment and economic decline, and assessing the severity of sudden eco- 
 nomic adjustment problems. Such work on economic indicators is essential to the 
 development of sound eligibility and investment criteria. 
 
 Much attention has been given to the variety of factors impacting regional and 
 local economic development. The availability and price of natural resources such as 
 energy and water have been a major concern, including a major study of the decline 
 of nonrenewable water supplies in the High Plains region, drought management, 
 and the interregional impacts of rising energy costs. The effects of government 
 regulatory practices, particularly environmental regulations, on business investment 
 and economic growth have received increasing attention as awareness has grown of 
 the linkages - between public programs, the inadvertent consequences of public ac- 
 tions, and the need for assessments of the trade-offs between multiple public policy 
 objectives. This research has supported the progress being made in economic impact 
 analysis of public programs and the improved coordination of diverse public pro- 
 grams with local economic development consequences, e.g., transportation, 
 environmental, and public works. 
 
 Structural changes in the U.S. economy with significant regional and local 
 economic consequences have been another area of research emphasis. Work has 
 been done on recent sectoral trends in the U.S. economy and what they portend for 
 regional economic adjustment, for manpower displacement, and for new local 
 economic growth and job creation opportunities. Such information should con- 
 tribute to economically sounder regional development strategies and a more effec- 
 tive coordination between Federal economic development efforts and new industrial 
 policy initiatives. 
 
 The provision and maintenance of public infrastructure, e.g., transportation, 
 waste treatment facilities, are activities essential to the viability of an area for 
 business investment. EDA research has examined the public facilities support 
 systems for business investment as well as other location factors affecting this invest- 
 ment, such as taxes and labor force availability. 
 
 EDA-funded research has also explored the variety of types of economic prob- 
 lems which affect areas and communities, including underdevelopment and the con- 
 ditions for industrialization, chronic economic decline confronting mature 
 economies, severe economic adjustment problems resulting from business closures, 
 changing trade relations, obsolescent industrial facilities, etc., which can engender 
 chronic economic problems, and the geographically differential impacts of the 
 business cycle. Again the policy benefits of such research are to enable public 
 development practitioners to guide their investments with sounder investment 
 strategies customized to the various forms of economic distress. 
 
 EDA has been particularly concerned with developing the capacity of State, 
 area, and local agencies and organizations to plan for and implement effective 
 economic development programs. Without institutional capability economic need 
 and investment opportunities are insufficient to accomplish economic development. 
 
 VI 
 
A substantial portion of EDA-funded research has been devoted to the subject of 
 development planning, the data that are needed to plan for public economic in- 
 tervention, planning tools, techniques, and methodologies, and intergovernmental 
 planning coordination. As economic development has risen on the agendas of all 
 levels of government, increasing attention must be paid to the state-of-the-art if we 
 are to improve public development practices. Particularly important is the ability to 
 prepare regional and local investment strategies with which to guide the long-term 
 coordinated investment of public resources to leverage targeted business investment. 
 
 An adequate regional and local economic data base is essential to the practice of 
 economic development. At all levels of government there has been a paucity of data 
 beyond the few general economic indicators such as unemployment and income 
 data. Public development practitioners require geographically differentiated infor- 
 mation on such factors as business investment and location patterns, employment by 
 industry and skill level, credit availability, infrastructure investment and condition, 
 population movement, industry trends, resource pricing and availability, and labor 
 force composition. EDA-funded research has encouraged the increased use of 
 Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, social security, private 
 business profiles, and other data sources in support of creating an adequate 
 microeconomic data base. 
 
 The last several years have also seen increasing awareness of credit availability 
 as a factor in business investment and expansion, particularly of small and 
 moderate-sized firms and new ventures in distressed communities. Direct business 
 assistance through public loan guarantee programs, the tax structure and other 
 means has grown as an important programmatic component of regional economic 
 development — balancing the traditional use of public works. An important em- 
 phasis of development research has been on business credit needs, the geographic 
 performance of credit markets, and the design and effectiveness of business finance 
 assistance tools and institutions. 
 
 The more traditional area of public infrastructure as a development tool has 
 received renewed attention as a result of concerns about trends in U.S. public capital 
 investment, the condition of infrastructure in development areas, the role of major 
 infrastructure investments as a force for regional development, the value of public 
 works as a targeted countercyclical tool, the differing development benefits of 
 various types of public facility improvements, and the costs of public infrastructure 
 to support economic sprawl. EDA-supported research has been actively concerned 
 with all of these questions. 
 
 New attention is also being given to the differing development benefits resulting 
 from different size businesses. How much emphasis should be placed on the 
 modernization and retention of established and larger firms as opposed to assisting 
 small businesses and new ventures? What roles do various sized businesses play in 
 economic growth, employment creation, and technological innovations and produc- 
 tivity improvements? More recent concern with national economic competitiveness 
 and the contributions economic development can make to national positive adjust- 
 ment has added to the interest in identifying the appropriate businesses for develop- 
 ment investment. 
 
 The historical tension between the development objectives of strengthening area 
 economies and assisting economically disadvantaged populations has also influ- 
 enced the EDA research agenda. Research has been directed at the role of manpower 
 training and vocational education in linking the labor supply with job creation ef- 
 forts. The problems confronting minority entrepreneurs, the employment situation 
 of women and minorities in various industrial sectors, and the benefits of various 
 development projects for the unskilled and semi-skilled workers have all been ad- 
 dressed by research. 
 
 EDA has also been most interested in comparing U.S. and foreign regional 
 economic development experience, the policies, programs, institutions and tools and 
 their effectiveness, and establishing a dialogue with our foreign colleagues. Euro- 
 pean experience in regional economic development has been substantial and can pro- 
 vide valuable lessons for the United States. 
 
 Vll 
 
These highlights of recent EDA-supported research provide a good map of this 
 burgeoning field of public policy. But the challenge to a Federal economic develop- 
 ment research program is more than that of selecting the proper subjects for re- 
 search. The EDA research program has three major objectives: 
 
 — to help provide the conceptual framework, methodologies, and data 
 necessary for analyzing structural economic change and its relationships to 
 subnational economic distress; 
 
 — to aid in the design and implementation of more effective Federal, State, 
 and local economic development policies and programs which foster 
 balanced national economic growth and development and contribute to 
 the vitality of the Nation's economy; 
 
 — to provide training and support to students, practitioners, and researchers 
 which will improve the practice of regional economic development. 
 
 The EDA research program has over the last several years contributed to a bet- 
 ter understanding of and interest in our country's subnational economic problems, 
 to the development of more effective Federal, State, and local economic develop- 
 ment programs, and to the training of a new generation of economic development 
 policymakers and practitioners. These accomplishments, I believe, have assisted in 
 the progress regional economic development has made to a place of importance in 
 national public policy. 
 
 Most of the research described in this bibliography has taken place at univer- 
 sities and private research institutions, with financial support from ERD. Some of 
 the research has been undertaken directly by ERD staff. In all cases, the research has 
 been motivated by a desire to improve our understanding of subnational develop- 
 ment problems, as well as our capacity to resolve them. 
 
 Within each subject area, all related EDA research studies are annotated. The 
 annotations were prepared for EDA by the Potomac Institute for Economic 
 Research under the direction of Dr. Bradley R. Schiller, president. The annotations 
 contain brief summaries of the purpose, method, and findings of each study. All 
 findings, recommendations, and conclusions are those of individual authors; they 
 do not necessarily represent the views or policy positions of EDA. 
 
 An addendum and indexes to aid the user also appear at the back of the 
 bibliography as does ordering information for the annotated studies. 
 
 Iia£i M 
 
 f tU/jfi+lsy_ 
 
 Victor A. Hausner 
 
 Deputy A ssistant Secretary for Policy and Planning 
 
 Economic Development A dministration 
 
 • •• 
 
 Vlll 
 
Contents 
 
 Foreword— Robert T. Hall, Assistant Secretary for Economic Development iii 
 
 Introduction — Victor A. Hausner, Deputy Assistant Secretary 
 
 for Policy and Planning v 
 
 Sections 
 
 I. Urban 1 
 
 I- 1 . Central City Economic Development 1 
 
 1-2. Block Grants for Community Development: Decentral- 
 
 ized Decisionmaking 1 
 
 1-3. Urban Economic Development Strategies: Improving 
 
 Economic and Fiscal Performance 2 
 
 1-4. Metropolitan Prospects in the Context of the Changing 
 
 Distribution of Industry and Jobs 2 
 
 1-5. A Select Review of Urban Economic Development: Ob- 
 
 servations, Issues, Strategies and Assessments 3 
 
 1-6. Development Banking and Financial Incentives for the 
 
 Private Sector 3 
 
 1-7. The Quality of Municipal Services, Central City 
 
 Decline, and Middle Class Flight 4 
 
 1-8. An Initial Exploration of the Relationships Between In- 
 
 dustrial Composition and Urban Economic Distress 4 
 
 1-9. The Economic Development Context of Population 
 
 Distribution Issues 5 
 
 I- 10. New York State's Transition to Stability: The Demo- 
 
 graphic Outlook 5 
 
 I— 11. The Fiscal Impact of Regional Malls on Central 
 
 Business Districts in Small Cities 5 
 
 1-12. Private Sector Tax Credits for Urban Revitalization, or 
 
 Are We Giving Credit Where Credit is Doomed? 6 
 
 1-13. Bridges to the Future: Forces Impacting Urban 
 
 Economies 6 
 
 1-14. Transportation and Urban Economic Development 6 
 
 II. Regional 7 
 
 II- 1. Revitalizing the Northeastern Economy — A Survey for 
 
 Action 7 
 II-2. Stimulating the Economy of the Great Lakes States 
 
 II-3 . The South and the Nation 8 
 
 II— 4. Economic Transition of Distressed Communities 8 
 
 II-5. Southern Growth Trends 1970-1976 8 
 II-6. The Declining Northeast: Demographic and Economic 
 
 Analyses 9 
 
 II-7. Study of Clustering of Industries 9 
 
 IX 
 
II— 8. Development Patterns and Potentials of Selected Dis- 
 
 tressed Areas 9 
 
 II-9. Statistical Models of Sub-Regional and Regional Em- 
 
 ployment Change: A Feasibility Study 10 
 
 11-10. The Regional Data Quarterly: A Compilation of Nine 
 Economic Performance Indicators for New England, 
 Mid- Atlantic, and Midwestern States 10 
 
 11-11. The Economic Impact on Local Areas of the Program 
 
 of the Economic Development Administration 1 1 
 
 11-12. Regional Labor Supply Response to Negative Income 
 
 Tax Programs 1 1 
 
 11-13. Measuring the Regional Economic Impacts of the 
 
 Federal Grant Programs 1 2 
 
 11-14. Financing the South's Economic Expansion 12 
 
 11-15. Documenting the "Decline" of the North 12 
 
 11-16. Federal and Regional Responses to the Economic 
 
 Decline of the Northern Industrial Tier 1 3 
 
 11-17. The Migration of Firms and Workers in Ohio, 
 
 1970-1975 13 
 
 11-18. A Myth in the Making: The Southern Economic Chal- 
 lenge and Northern Economic Decline 1 3 
 11-19. The Northern Tier and the Sunbelt: Conflict or 
 
 Cooperation? 14 
 
 11-20. Where Have All the Firms Gone? An Analysis of the 
 
 New England Economy 14 
 
 11-21. The Future of the South's Economy 15 
 
 11-22. Income Distribution in the South 15 
 
 11-23. The Changing Structure of the Southern Economy 15 
 
 11-24. Midwest State Profiles 16 
 
 11-25. The Cause and Quality of Southern Growth 16 
 
 11-26. Working Paper on Rail Reorganization Economic 
 
 Development Issues 16 
 
 11-27. Balanced Growth for the Northeast 1 7 
 
 11-28. The Northeast: Managing a Way Out — Legislative Ac- 
 tions for Survival in the Credit Markets 1 7 
 11-29. The Impact of Vocational and Technical Education on 
 
 Manpower and Economic Development 1 8 
 
 11-30. Regional Industrial Location Determinants and Their 
 
 Application to Modeling 1 8 
 
 11-31. Executive Summary of the Atlantic Conference on 
 Balanced Regional Growth, January 4-6, 1978, Racine, 
 Wisconsin 18 
 
 III. Rural 19 
 
 III— 1. A Preliminary Review of Current Practices and Trends 
 
 in Rural Telecommunications Development and Recom- 
 mendations for Future Development 19 
 III— 2. Rural Economic Development: A Concept Paper 19 
 III— 3. Policies for Nonmetropolitan Areas 20 
 III— 4. Issues in the Economic Development of Nonmetropoli- 
 tan United States 20 
 III— 5. The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of 
 
 Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1 970's 2 1 
 
 III— 6. Demographic Structure and Implications of Recent 
 
 Nonmetropolitan Growth: Synthesis of Previous 
 Research 21 
 
 III— 7. Arkansas Basin Chloride Control Project: A Critical 
 
 Evaluation of Regional Effects 21 
 
 HI-8. Industrial Invasion of Nonmetropolitan America 22 
 
 III— 9. Urban Growth in the Nonmetropolitan South 22 
 
IV. Fiscal 23 
 
 IV- 1 . Federal Policy and the Fiscal Outlook for Cities 23 
 
 IV-2. The Fiscal Implications of Social Welfare Programs: 
 
 Can They Help the Cities? 23 
 
 IV-3. Fiscal Impacts of Economic Activity Generated by 
 
 Economic Development Grants: A Discussion of Possi- 
 ble Research Methodologies and a Review of the 
 Literature 24 
 
 IV-4. The Federal Response to the Fiscal Crisis in American 
 
 Cities 24 
 
 IV-5. The Future of the South's Economy 25 
 
 V. Development Planning 26 
 
 V-l. The Purposes of Balanced Growth 26 
 
 V-2. State Departments of Community and Economic Devel- 
 
 opment: Frameworks for Coordinating Implementation 26 
 
 V-3. Human Resource and Regional Economic Development 27 
 
 V-4. Planning for the Interorganizational Networking of a 
 
 State Economic Development Council 27 
 
 V-5. Capability of Transportation and Distribution Systems 
 
 To Respond to Regional Growth 27 
 
 V-6. The Functional Concept of Resources for Economic 
 
 Development Purposes: A Framework for Analysis of 
 Resource Use and Development 28 
 
 V-7. The Development of a Subnational Economic Develop- 
 
 ment Policy 28 
 
 V-8. Geocoding Data for Display and Policy Analysis: 
 
 Volume I — The Potential of the ACCESS Process re 
 Energy, Environment and the Economy 29 
 
 V-9. Geocoding Data for Display and Policy Analysis: 
 
 Volume II — Technology from the User Perspective 29 
 
 V-10. Regional Economic Development and Federal Legisla- 
 
 tion 30 
 
 V-l 1. Proposed Information Program Concept for the Office 
 
 of Economic Research 30 
 
 V- 1 2. Economic Development Through State Planning 30 
 
 V-l 3. The Umbrella Planning Commission: A Model for Inte- 
 grating Local Development Planning and Decision- 
 Making 31 
 
 V-14. Evaluating Economic Development Programs: A 
 
 Methodology Handbook 31 
 
 V-l 5. Evaluation of State Planning 31 
 
 V-l 6. A Multiregional Input -Output Model for the United 
 
 States 3 1 
 
 V-17. State Economic Modeling: Techniques of State Plan- 
 ning 32 
 
 V-18. Composite Mapping System 32 
 
 V-19. Discussion of Relevance of BEA Areas to the Economic 
 
 Development Administration 33 
 
 V-20. An Examination of the Use of Labor Force Data in 
 
 Targeted Subnational Economic Development Policy 33 
 
 V-21. Labor Market Considerations in Economic Develop- 
 ment Planning 33 
 
 V-22. IDIOM II: A User's Manual 34 
 
 V-23. Using Locally Planned Investment Strategies for 
 
 Strategic Targetting of EDA Investment Funds 34 
 
 V-24. A Fourth Stage in National Development? An Assess- 
 
 ment of Research Issues Relevant to Economic Develop- 
 ment 34 
 
 xi 
 
V-25. Multistate Regional Development Issues 35 
 
 V-26. Intergovernmental Cooperation and Subnational 
 
 Development Problems: A Synthesis of Relevant 
 Research Findings 35 
 
 V-27. Conflicts in Federal Subnational Development 
 
 Programs — An Analysis with Recommendations 36 
 
 V-28. Summary of Conclusions and Recommendations by Ad 
 Hoc Review Panel Members Regarding OMB's Prelimi- 
 nary Working Papers: "Review of Federal Planning Re- 
 quirements" 36 
 
 V-29. Making Local Economic Development Decisions: A 
 
 Framework for Local Officials 36 
 
 V-30. State Planning Series 37 
 
 VI. Business Development 38 
 
 VI- 1. Mobilizing Capital for Economic Development: Institu- 
 
 tional Innovation and the New Urban Policy 38 
 
 VI-2. Establishing a National Development Bank 38 
 
 VI-3. Industrial Location Determinants, 1971-1975 39 
 
 VI-4. Effectiveness of Financial Incentives on Investments in 
 
 the Economic Development Administration's Desig- 
 nated Areas 39 
 VI-5. A System for the Analysis, Evaluation and Design of 
 
 Organizations, Work, and Jobs 39 
 
 VI-6. Tourism in the United States — Potentials and Problems 40 
 
 VI-7. Comments on Kelso's "Two Factor Theory" and 
 
 Employee Stock Option Programs (ESOP's) 40 
 
 VI-8. The Reliability of Industrial Location Surveys 40 
 
 VI-9. A Review of the 1971 ED A Location Survey 41 
 
 VI- 10. The Manufacturing Location Decision: Evidence from 
 
 Cincinnati and New England 41 
 
 VI-11. The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Develop- 
 ment at the Less-Than-National-Level 42 
 VI- 12. A Proposal for a Development Bank for the United 
 
 States 42 
 
 VI- 13. The Unemployment Insurance Tax Structure in New 
 
 York State 42 
 
 VII. Sectoral Analysis 44 
 
 VIII. Regulation 45 
 
 VIII- 1. Effects of Environmental Protection Regulation on 
 
 Regional Economic Development 45 
 
 VIII-2. Relationship of Environmental Improvement Efforts on 
 
 Development in Economically Distressed Areas 45 
 
 IX. Natural Resources 47 
 
 IX- 1 . Energy: The New Economic Development Wildcard 47 
 IX-2. A Study Design for the High Plains Development Proj- 
 ect 47 
 IX-3. Energy for the Growing South 48 
 IX-4. Mobile Nuclear Power Plants: Initial Feasibility Study 48 
 IX-5. Regional Economic Consequences of High Energy 
 
 Prices in the United States 49 
 
 IX-6. Regional Impacts of Rising Energy Prices 49 
 
 IX-7. Energy and Income in Arkansas 49 
 IX-8. New England Blueprint for Energy Action: Preliminary 
 
 Report for Public Review 50 
 IX-9. Socio-Economic and Environmental Interactions in the 
 Upper Main Stem Sub-Basin of the Colorado River 
 
 Basin: Three Alternative Energy Development Futures 50 
 
 xii 
 
X. Rapid Growth/Boom Towns 52 
 
 XI. Cyclical Unemployment 53 
 
 XI- 1. PSE in Perspective 53 
 
 XI-2. The Effect of Federal Countercyclical Policies on 
 
 Regional Economies 53 
 
 XI-3. The U.S. Economy, 1978-1982 54 
 
 XI-4. Countercyclical Revenue Sharing 54 
 
 XI-5. Public Works as a Countercyclical Device: A Review of 
 
 the Issues 54 
 
 XI-6. Public Works as a Countercyclical Fiscal Policy 55 
 
 XI-7. Assessment of Countercyclical Public Works and Public 
 
 Service Employment Programs 55 
 XI-8. Regional Cycles and Employment Effects of Public 
 
 Works Investments 56 
 
 XII. Structural Unemployment 57 
 
 XII- 1. Relating Jobs to Training: A Model To Improve Con- 
 gruence of Vocational Education and Current Job Prac- 
 tices 57 
 
 XII-2. What Happens After Training: A Review of Follow-Up 
 
 of Vocational Graduates 57 
 
 XII-3. Minority Business Enterprise Capital Markets: An 
 Analysis of Empirical Data, Current Federal Interven- 
 tion and Proposed Innovations 58 
 
 XII-4. Economic Growth and Minority Entrepreneurship 58 
 
 XII-5. Inequality in America: Research and Policy Perspective 
 
 on Race, Sex and Urban Development 58 
 
 XIII. Natural Disasters 60 
 
 XII I- 1. Managing Resource Scarcity: Lessons from the Mid- 
 Seventies Drought 60 
 
 XIV. Public Infrastructure 61 
 
 XIV- 1. Report on Municipal and Industrial Wastewater Treat- 
 ment Systems: A Statistical Compendium 61 
 
 XIV-2. Impact of Rural Water Systems on Rural Economic 
 
 Development 62 
 
 XV. Other 63 
 
 XV- 1 . Selected Statistics on the Developing USA 63 
 
 XV-2. EDA's Intern and Visiting Scholar Program: A Policy 
 
 Memorandum 63 
 
 XV-3. Bibliography of State-Directed Research for Economic 
 
 Development, 1969-1975 63 
 
 XV-4. Bibliography of State-Directed Research for Economic 
 
 Development, 1971-1977 64 
 
 XV-5 . The Feasibility of Establishing the Southwest Center for 
 
 Economic and Community Development 64 
 
 Addendum: Omitted Reports, EDA Reports Published in Book Form, 
 
 and Important New EDA Reports 65 
 
 FY 1979 Research Grants 69 
 
 How To Order the Research Studies of EDA 75 
 
 Indexes 79 
 
 XIII 
 
HOW TO ORDER 
 
 Research Studies in this Bibliography 
 See page 75 
 
 XIV 
 
I. Urban 
 
 EDA has taken decisive action to develop research 
 initiatives in the area of public policy for urban areas. 
 EDA has been interested not only in defining and mea- 
 suring the problems of urban areas, but also in assessing 
 various public policy responses to those problems. Sig- 
 nificant contributions to the field of urban development 
 economics include analyses of the ever-changing 
 economies of cities, attempts to classify cities according 
 to their levels of economic and fiscal distress, and 
 several studies discussing public programs and urban 
 areas. 
 
 Much of the recent research focuses on documenting 
 the severity and causes of urban decline. Urban decline 
 is reflected in absolute or relative losses of employment, 
 income, population, housing stock, and/or infrastruc- 
 ture in urban areas. These losses may result from out- 
 migration of jobs, a reduction in the rate of firm forma- 
 tion or growth, a change in the job mix, or other causes. 
 Among the potential policy responses to urban decline 
 are business assistance, infrastructure development, 
 manpower training, revenue sharing, and encourage- 
 ment of metropolitan planning. 
 
 I- 1 . Title: Central City Economic Development 
 Author: Benjamin Chinitz, et al. 
 Organization: The State University of New 
 York (Binghamton) 
 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 183 NTIS: PB 283 
 869 Price Code: A09 
 
 Purpose: To present an overview of urban eco- 
 nomic development issues. 
 
 Method: The study encompasses thirteen papers 
 and/or speeches from a conference held at the 
 State University of New York at Binghamton on 
 October 17-18, 1977. Trends and prospects of 
 central city economic development are reviewed. 
 The Federal, State, and local roles in economic 
 development of the city are highlighted. 
 
 Findings: Several observations and conclusions 
 from the various presentations are: (1) The cen- 
 tral cities of the U.S. have declined absolutely 
 and relatively in demographic and economic 
 terms; (2) The key to urban development is capi- 
 tal placement with substantial community group 
 involvement; (3) Federal assistance must be re- 
 oriented towards problems rather than being 
 project-specific; (4) The urban problem is linked 
 to racial discrimination; and (5) The Federal 
 Government's anti-urban bias must be alle- 
 viated. 
 
 1-2. Title: Block Grants for Community 
 Development: Decentralized Decisionmaking 
 Author: Paul R. Dommel 
 Organization: The Brookings Institution 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 39 
 
 Draft copy available from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To assess the efficacy of the Com- 
 munity Development Block Grant Program. 
 
 Method: Provides an analysis of the Communi- 
 ty Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, 
 including a review of earlier categorical grant 
 precedents, the distributional impacts of the 
 CDBG on both urban and regional areas, and 
 the continuing issues and larger policy implica- 
 tions for urban development. Also reports on 
 and analyzes several studies dealing with dif- 
 ferent aspects of the CDBG program, including 
 impacts of the 1974 formula distribution system 
 and the effectiveness of the dual formula 
 system. The data and experience cited originated 
 from the first two years of a Brookings Institu- 
 tion study that has monitored six years of the 
 CDBG program. 
 
 Findings: The newer dual formula of 1977 ap- 
 pears to have targeted funds more effectively to 
 the older, declining cities, many of which are 
 located in the Northeast quadrant, while at the 
 same time keeping allocations constant to other 
 regions. This result contrasts with earlier cate- 
 gorical grant programs that resulted in funds go- 
 ing to more affluent or newer growing com- 
 munities at the expense of older, declining cities, 
 
and the single formula allocation system in 1974 
 that resulted in non-effectual targeting of 
 money towards distressed jurisdictions. 
 
 In the first two years of the CDBG program, 
 there appeared to be a tendency towards reduc- 
 tion in commitments to urban renewal and 
 model cities and a trend towards neighborhood 
 conservation. CDBG has substituted representa- 
 tion of local preferences for Federal preferences 
 in decisionmaking. 
 
 1-3. Title: Urban Economic Development Strategies: 
 Improving Economic and Fiscal Performance, 
 Volume I (see entry 1-8 for Volume II) 
 Author: Harvey A. Garn 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: September 1978 Pp.: 144 NTIS: PB 
 298 045 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: To provide an overview of strategic 
 options open to the Federal Government in the 
 area of urban economic development, to classify 
 cities on the basis of their economic and fiscal 
 performance, and to identify those characteris- 
 tics of local economies and public intervention 
 strategies which will increase the probability of 
 successful intervention. 
 
 Method: Economic development policies are 
 evaluated in the context of: 1) their reliance on 
 macro- or microeconomic instruments, 2) their 
 orientation toward demographic or geographic 
 targets, 3) their concern with increasing the de- 
 mand for labor or with redistributing the labor 
 force, 4) their use of capital subsidies or wage 
 subsidies to create jobs, and 5) the effect of local 
 industrial structure on the achievement of 
 development goals. 
 
 U.S. cities with population 100,000 or more 
 are ranked according to an index of economic 
 distress incorporating changes in employment 
 and per capita income, and a fiscal distress in- 
 dex incorporating long-term debt, per capita ex- 
 penditures, and tax burdens. 
 
 Cluster analysis is used to identify similar pat- 
 terns of economic and fiscal performance. 
 
 Findings: Urban economic development policies 
 must include micro- as well as macroeconomic 
 elements, because the adverse regional and local 
 impact of cyclical variations in employment and 
 income may persist in spite of countercyclical 
 macroeconomic measures. Macro policies alone 
 may fail to achieve full employment, or achieve 
 it at an unnecessarily high price because of 
 structural bottlenecks. 
 
 While individual-oriented transfer programs 
 are necessary to provide income support to 
 those who cannot work, geographically targeted 
 job-creation or relocation programs are also 
 necessary to assure that potential labor force 
 members can find jobs. Transfer programs 
 should incorporate a work incentive. 
 
 1-4. 
 
 Although relocation programs may be effec- 
 tive when suitable vacancies exist elsewhere, 
 they cannot be regarded as a general solution to 
 employment problems. The relatively immobile, 
 low-skill, low-wage members of the labor force 
 identified as the target group for employment 
 policies are the least able to profit from current 
 tax credits for relocation and may find that their 
 low skill level is a barrier to employment even 
 after relocation. For this reason, job creation 
 may often be the only viable development alter- 
 native. 
 
 While both public service employment and 
 residential policies designed to attract middle- 
 income people by upgrading services may be 
 partial solutions, job creation in the private sec- 
 tor will be required. Wage subsidies merit 
 serious consideration because they can be selec- 
 tively targeted and offer a direct incentive to 
 employ members of the target group. Capital 
 subsidies are of doubtful merit and may even 
 aggravate an existing tendency among 
 employers to favor capital-intensive production 
 methods, substituting capital for labor. 
 
 Industry mix is important to development 
 prospects, but no one combination of industries 
 assures favorable results at all locations or pro- 
 motes all policy objectives at a given location. 
 
 Economic distress is correlated with city size 
 and location, large cities and cities in the New 
 England, Middle Atlantic, and East North Cen- 
 tral States being most affected. Fiscal distress is 
 correlated with city size but less tied to regional 
 location. Fiscal distress need not accompany 
 economic distress. 
 
 More research is needed on the relationships 
 between city performance and industry struc- 
 ture, firm behavior, and labor force character- 
 istics. 
 
 Title: Metropolitan Prospects in the Context of 
 the Changing Distribution of Industry and Jobs 
 Author: Harvey A. Garn and Larry C. Ledebur 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: November 1978 Pp.: 63 NTIS: PB 298 
 048 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To evaluate urban performance and 
 prospects in the context of a changing mix of in- 
 dustry and employment. 
 
 Method: An index of economic distress that 
 considers income, the unemployment rate, their 
 respective rates of change, and the change in the 
 number employed is developed. This index is 
 used to classify cities into a most-distressed, 
 least-distressed and an intermediate group. 
 Comparisons of economic performance are 
 made among these urban groups on the basis of 
 employment size, industrial composition, and 
 the presence of industries that have high value 
 added. Data are drawn from the Census of 
 
Manufactures, County Business Patterns, and 
 Dun and Bradstreet for 147 cities with popula- 
 tions over 100,000. 
 
 Findings: The "least-distressed" cities tend to 
 be located in the South, Central, and Western 
 regions. In these regions, employment has tend- 
 ed to increase in manufacturing, retail and 
 wholesale trade, and selected services. Except 
 for selected services, the dynamics of growth ap- 
 pear to favor the suburbs. For "distressed" 
 cities, employment in central cities declined in 
 all sectors except for selected services. While 
 employment in the suburbs of these cities in- 
 creased, it did not compensate for the central 
 city loss. 
 
 The dynamics underlying the changes occur- 
 ring in the most- and least-distressed urban 
 groups are quite different. For most-distressed 
 cities, manufacturing-to-service shifts occur 
 because of manufacturing decline rather than 
 service growth. In least-distressed cities, the 
 shift away from high value-added employment 
 occurred because these industries, although 
 growing rapidly, grew at a slower rate than low 
 value-added industries. 
 
 1-5. Title: A Select Review of Urban Economic 
 Development: Observations, Issues, Strategies 
 and Assessments 
 
 Author: Peter Greenston and Carl E. Snead 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: May 1976 Pp. 134 NTIS: PB 257 
 403 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: To identify issues, problems and strat- 
 egies in urban economic development that may 
 call for public policy responses. Also assesses 
 the degree to which the literature provides a con- 
 ceptual or empirical basis for choosing among 
 alternative responses. 
 
 Method: This literature review deals with 
 regional and intermetropolitan aspects of devel- 
 opment. The market forces leading to a realign- 
 ment of regional economic power are described. 
 Policy responses for easing the resulting adjust- 
 ment of people and places are then discussed. 
 The problems of the central city vis-a-vis the 
 suburbs are reviewed, particularly the mismatch 
 between job location and residence, as well as 
 revenue sources and government service re- 
 quirements. 
 
 The general approach is to describe the trends 
 empirically and to review the available literature 
 for explanations of the trends and strategies for 
 ameliorating development problems. The study 
 utilizes Census data and numerous other 
 sources. A large bibliography is provided. 
 
 Findings: The redistribution of jobs and people 
 from the Northeast and North Central area to 
 the South and Southwest has resulted mostly 
 
 1-6. 
 
 from regional variations in firm expansions and 
 births. Firm contractions and deaths have re- 
 mained relatively constant across regions. In ad- 
 dition, service industries, experiencing the fast- 
 est growth nationally, are growing fastest in 
 these new areas. 
 
 A variety of economic, technological and 
 social factors have caused this shift in regional 
 comparative advantage. Older areas tend to 
 have conflicting property arrangements, a high 
 degree of unionization, a resistance to changes 
 in work standards, and non-competitive (older) 
 production methods. New production tech- 
 niques favoring small plants and declining truck 
 transportation costs have tended to favor smal- 
 ler places. These changes in goods-distribution 
 patterns have led firms to land-intensive, single- 
 story facilities and away from metropolitan 
 areas where land costs are high. 
 
 Alternative government policy responses to 
 the redistribution problem are public sector in- 
 vestment (possibly financed through revenue 
 sharing) to maintain the viability of older loca- 
 tions, capital or wage subsidies, and increasing 
 geographic and industrial mobility, skills, and 
 education, in order to facilitate long-run adjust- 
 ment to market forces. 
 
 Intra-metropolitan migration has caused cen- 
 tral cities to be populated by low-income blacks 
 and minorities and suburbs by middle- and 
 upper-income whites. Firm relocations have 
 placed blue-collar manufacturing jobs in the 
 suburbs and skilled professional jobs in the 
 cities. This mismatch has led to fiscal problems 
 for central cities. Fragmented systems of 
 government have produced spillovers of costs 
 and benefits among jurisdictions, to the detri- 
 ment of central cities. 
 
 Revenue sharing, tax restructuring, and ghet- 
 to dispersal programs would help solve these 
 problems. 
 
 Title: Development Banking and Financial 
 
 Incentives for the Private Sector 
 
 Author: L. Kenneth Hubbell 
 
 Organization: University of Missouri — Kansas 
 
 City 
 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 49 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: Evaluates the potential effectiveness 
 of the proposed National Development Bank 
 Act in arresting urban decline. Also discussed 
 are the equity and efficiency implications of the 
 Bank's operation. 
 
 Method: Outlines the economic rationale, ob- 
 jectives and policy instruments, structure, and 
 eligibility criteria of the National Development 
 Bank proposal. The impacts and effectiveness 
 of loan guarantees, interest subsidies, capital 
 
grants, and tax-exempt industrial development 
 bonds are discussed. The author analyzes the 
 adequacy of these financial incentives in terms 
 of factors responsible for urban decline. 
 
 Findings: Economic and population declines are 
 inevitable for many cities. The proposed Na- 
 tional Development Bank can do little to halt 
 this decline because the interest savings to 
 business will be quite small compared to the 
 gains from relocation. An urban policy that 
 compensates distressed cities for revenue losses 
 due to employment decline is needed. Such aid 
 may be in the form of direct assistance, state or 
 federal assumption of public services, or provi- 
 sion of manpower training programs for the 
 unemployed. 
 
 1-7. Title: The Quality of Municipal Services, 
 Central City Decline, and Middle Class Flight 
 Author: Martin T. Katzman 
 Organization: University of Texas (Dallas) 
 Date: February 1978 Pp.: 106 NTIS: PB 282 
 778 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To examine the effect of declining 
 municipal services on urban decline and middle- 
 class flight. The working hypothesis is that "the 
 institutions that produce, distribute, and 
 finance municipal services create external dis- 
 economies that accelerate central city decline 
 and lead to inefficiently high levels of subur- 
 banization." 
 
 Method: The conceptual framework of this 
 study is based on residential choice theory. 
 Given an urban environment, families choose a 
 location that maximizes their welfare. The ag- 
 gregation of individual housing choices affects 
 and is affected by changes in the level of public 
 service quality. The author fills in the frame- 
 work with a literature review on school enroll- 
 ment influences, housing demand and municipal 
 services, population composition and mobility, 
 and the feedback effect of urban decline on 
 municipal services. A pilot study of residential 
 mobility in metropolitan Wilmington, Dela- 
 ware, is also described. 
 
 Findings: Because all of the studies reviewed ap- 
 proach the problem differently, there are no 
 definitive findings. However, the author does 
 tentatively conclude that families are sensitive to 
 interjurisdictional differences in fiscal packages. 
 The incentive for the formation of homogene- 
 ous communities is stronger the larger the num- 
 ber of jurisdictions and the variations among 
 them in terms of taxation, expenditure, and 
 racial mix. The movement toward intra- 
 municipal equality of public service can result in 
 population movements that can lead to further 
 changes in the interjurisdictional pattern of tax- 
 ation and expenditure. 
 
 1-8. Title: An Initial Exploration of the Relation- 
 ships Between Industrial Composition and Ur- 
 ban Economic Distress, Volume II (see entry 
 1-3, Volume I) 
 
 Authors: John Kordalewski and Larry C. 
 Ledebur 
 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: September 27, 1978 Pp.: 60 NTIS: PB 
 298 046 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To examine relationships between the 
 industry mix and changing industry composition 
 of cities and levels and types of urban distress, 
 and to explore directions for furthur research. 
 
 Method: Volume I of this series concludes that 
 cities can be classified by type and degree of 
 economic distress. This follow-up study at- 
 tempts to identify the determinants of urban 
 economic distress. An index of economic dis- 
 tress which considers employment change, in- 
 come, the unemployment rate, and rates of 
 change in the latter two is used to classify cities 
 into: most-distressed, least-distressed, and mid- 
 dle groups. Comparisons are made among these 
 city groups based on employment size, indus- 
 trial composition, and the presence of industries 
 that have high value added. Data was drawn 
 from the Census of Manufactures and County 
 Business Patterns on 152 cities with population 
 over 100,000. 
 
 Findings: The relationships between level and 
 types of urban distress and industrial composi- 
 tion are somewhat weak. However, the most- 
 distressed cities are larger and have more of 
 their employment concentrated in manufactur- 
 ing. Least-distressed cities are capturing a 
 greater share of employment overall, within 
 each one-digit SIC industry, and in key high 
 value-added industries. Between 1970 and 1975 
 the most-distressed grouping experienced abso- 
 lute growth only in services, finance, insurance, 
 and real estate. These cities are losing their na- 
 tional share of employment overall and in every 
 one digit industry. 
 
 The least-distressed cities are passing through 
 two development phases simultaneously: rapid 
 industrialization and the transition to a pre- 
 dominantly service economy. 
 
 Further disaggregation of the manufacturing 
 and service sectors is needed to better assess 
 their roles in promoting growth or decline 
 within urban economies. For manufacturing, it 
 is necessary to identify those industries that have 
 both high value-added and high growth in in- 
 come. For services, an attempt should be made 
 to distinguish between export services vs. 
 domestic support services, and high technology 
 vs. blue collar. These service categories can then 
 be analyzed in relation to levels of urban 
 distress. 
 
1-9. Title: The Economic Development Context of 
 Population Distribution Issues 
 Author: Larry C. Ledebur 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration (Visiting Scholar) 
 Date: January 1977 Pp.: 36 NTIS: PB 269 
 177 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To integrate and summarize the 
 literature on residential preferences and migra- 
 tion motivations. 
 
 Method: Two surveys of public attitudes 
 towards population size and distribution are dis- 
 cussed. The changing patterns of population 
 distribution and migration over the 1970-1975 
 period are examined with tables and graphs. 
 Surveys are again consulted for information on 
 preferred residential locations and their rela- 
 tionship to quality of life indicators. Finally, the 
 determinants of mobility are examined by socio- 
 economic characteristics, education, sex, age, 
 occupation, and type of residence. A variety of 
 data sources, including public opinion polls, is 
 utilized. 
 
 Findings: A majority of Americans express a 
 preference for nonurban residential settings. 
 However, there is a significant difference be- 
 tween preferences and a willingness to act on 
 those preferences due to economic and social 
 constraints. Between fifty and sixty percent of 
 moves occur primarily for economic reasons. 
 The most important factors drawing people to 
 cities are jobs, variety, better schools, and 
 culture. The primary factors for a nonurban set- 
 ting are: less crime, cleaner air and water, a 
 "healthier" environment for children and lower 
 living costs. The degree of mobility depends on 
 age, educational attainment, income level, and 
 occupational skills. 
 
 I- 10. Title: New York State's Transition to Stability: 
 The Demographic Outlook 
 Author: Peter Morrison 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: January 1 977 Pp. : 38 
 
 Working paper available from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts or 
 from the Rand Corporation (Rand Rept. 
 P-5794). 
 
 Purpose: To examine current population trends 
 in New York State. To highlight potential eco- 
 nomic and social problems that may be created 
 by these trends. 
 
 Method: Fertility, migration, and regional 
 (Northeast) demographic trends are highlighted. 
 Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population 
 growth rates in New York State are examined. 
 The effects these rates of growth may have on 
 school enrollments and the structure of dwelling 
 units are discussed. Migration into New York 
 City is also examined. 
 
 The U.S. Bureau of the Census is the primary 
 data source. The paper was prepared for a con- 
 ference on "Planning for Change: The Case of 
 New York State," at the State University of 
 New York at Binghamton, November 1976. 
 
 Findings: The population of New York State is 
 leveling off. Metropolitan growth has stopped 
 in New York while certain nonmetropolitan 
 growth areas have shown a revival. Rates of 
 changes in the age composition in New York 
 vary widely. Population of school-age children 
 will decline until the mid 1980's. New fiscal and 
 political accommodations in response to the 
 changing demographic trends will entail diffi- 
 cult choices and often conflicting objectives. 
 
 I— 11. Title: The Fiscal Impact of Regional Malls on 
 Central Business Districts in Small Cities 
 Author: Thomas Muller 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: December 1978 Pp.: 42 NTIS: PB 
 80- 1 25230 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To analyze the effects of a regional re- 
 tail shopping mall on the Central Business Dis- 
 trict of a city. While city officials have specu- 
 lated that malls have had a negative impact on 
 the central city, mall developers have argued 
 there are few if any short-term negative impacts 
 and in the long run the Central Business District 
 may actually benefit from the mall. 
 
 Method: This is a case study of retail shopping 
 malls in three cities. The impact of the malls on 
 the Central Business District is analyzed in terms 
 of sales tax revenue, the market values of com- 
 mercial properties, assessment rates and rental 
 values both before and after the opening of a 
 mall. The data are obtained from Census 
 Bureau reports and tax rate/revenue tabulations 
 of the respective cities. Additionally, interviews 
 were held with local public officials. No analysis 
 is undertaken of net fiscal effects at the regional 
 level, nor are second-order effects studied. 
 
 Findings: In most cases, the establishment of a 
 regional shopping mall has an immediate, mea- 
 surable and long-term negative impact on the 
 Central Business District. Sales tax revenues, 
 property values, assessment and rental rates 
 were all adversely affected. Approximately fifty 
 percent of the sales of a regional mall are 
 diverted from the Central Business District. 
 
1-12. Title: Private Sector Tax Credits for Urban 
 Revitalization, or Are We Giving Credit Where 
 Credit is Doomed? 
 
 Authors: David Puryear and Richard McHugh 
 Date: June 15, 1978 Pp.: 32 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: Examines the use of federal tax incen- 
 tives to encourage urban revitalization in terms 
 of employment, investment and fiscal relief. 
 
 Method: Reviews the literature on the efficacy 
 of subsidies in stimulating employment. Invest- 
 ment credits and employment credits are dis- 
 cussed both in terms of general subsidies and 
 targeted subsidies with specific urban goals. 
 
 Findings: Tax credits have the "potential for 
 undesirable side effects such as reduced employ- 
 ment in the case of the investment tax credit and 
 substitution of unskilled for skilled workers in 
 the case of the targeted employment tax credit." 
 Also, "tax credits bypass the nonprofit sector 
 which accounts for a steadily growing share of 
 economic activity and is concentrated in the 
 cities." However, tax credits allow the market 
 mechanism to work, "avoiding costly mistakes 
 as well as expensive bureaucracies . . . while 
 providing a slight push toward distressed 
 areas." 
 
 1-13. Title: Bridges to the Future: Forces Impacting 
 Urban Economies 
 Author: Gail Garfield Schwartz 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 Problems 
 
 Date: May 1978 Pp.: 35 NTIS: PB 290 
 756 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: Seeks to identify the dominant forces 
 which may help shape the growth of urban econ- 
 omies over the next fifteen to twenty years. 
 These forces will help to determine whether the 
 declines in population and employment regis- 
 tered in many urban areas during the 1970's will 
 continue or be reversed. Public policies for 
 distribution vs. development, human capital 
 development and urban development strategies 
 are discussed. 
 
 Method: Discusses four factors that affect the 
 distribution of activities over space: technology 
 (including energy); personal consumption pat- 
 terns; institutional and structural changes in the 
 private sector; and public policy, including insti- 
 tutional changes in the public economy and in 
 government. Data are used to document the im- 
 portance of these factors in the past. The data 
 include shifts in urban employment by sectors 
 and regions, changes in urban manufacturing 
 employment by regions, changes in places of 
 work versus places of residence, changes in ur- 
 ban population densities, etc. These data are 
 taken from National Planning Association 
 
 research, Census of Manufactures data, Census 
 of Population data and other sources. 
 
 Findings: All four considerations noted above 
 will affect the future growth of urban areas. As 
 technology advances, firms will tend to locate 
 near product or service markets and near the 
 new scarce resource, energy. The process of 
 "microminiaturization" will lead to the further 
 automation of control processes, and this will 
 erode the locational advantages of urban 
 centers. 
 
 Per capita consumption will increase because 
 of smaller but more highly educated families, 
 more working women, greater specialization of 
 workers, etc. An increase in leisure-related ex- 
 penditures can be expected as incomes rise. 
 
 Increased vertical integration will likely in- 
 crease firms' exodus from cities, as larger plant 
 facilities are needed. 
 
 Finally, Federal policies will need to foster 
 more regional cooperation and private invest- 
 ment. Sentiment for limiting the pace at which 
 suburbanization continues may grow in many 
 areas, due to an awareness of the environmental 
 despoliation which accompanies added growth 
 of suburbs and basic resource shortages. 
 
 1-14. Title: Transportation and Urban Economic 
 Development (2 volumes) 
 Author: Robert Witherspoon 
 Organization: Gladstone Associates 
 Date: November 1977 Volume I: NTJS: PB 
 275 562; Price Code: A07 
 Technical Appendices, Volume II: NTIS: PB 
 215 563; Price Code: A01 
 
 Purpose: To identify policy, program and ad- 
 ministrative initiatives for EDA in the urban 
 transportation field. Also explores the interface 
 of such policies with the U.S. Department of 
 Transportation (DOT) and discusses the role of 
 transportation in urban development. 
 
 Method: The transportation and economic 
 development literature as well as selected con- 
 tacts with consultants are utilized. An interpre- 
 tative analysis of the effects of transportation 
 on urban economic development is provided. 
 Also discussed are Federal urban transportation 
 aid, DOT programs of possible significance for 
 EDA, and metropolitan area planning. 
 
 Findings: The potential benefits of improved 
 transportation infrastructure are constrained by 
 the lack of transportation/development plans 
 and a lack of metro-wide coordination. At pres- 
 ent, infrastructure construction only serves to 
 rearrange economic activity. EDA can assist 
 localities in getting the most from transporta- 
 tion infrastructure projects if its emphasis 
 becomes broader than the central city. Trans- 
 portation projects will have very little impact on 
 poverty pockets. 
 
II. Regional 
 
 EDA research in this area has primarily concentrated 
 on identifying and analyzing variations in regional 
 economic performance in the United States and on 
 determining the effects of Federal development pro- 
 grams on these performances. 
 
 Specific studies focus on firm behavior, on identify- 
 ing regional attractions and disadvantages, and on 
 
 isolating the causes and extent of regional decline or 
 regional growth. 
 
 The role of Federal development assistance in the 
 regional economic development process is a focus of 
 several research studies. The results attest to the con- 
 tinued importance of EDA and other assistance in alle- 
 viating distress in declining or changing economies. 
 
 II— 1. Title: Revitalizing the Northeastern 
 Economy — A Survey for Action 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 Problems 
 
 Date: November 1977 Pp.: 267 NTIS: PB 
 275 368 Price Code: Ml 
 
 Purpose: To assess the problems and potential 
 of the Northeast economy. Also seeks to assist 
 public and private organizations in identifying 
 some of the next steps in action and research 
 for a long-term economic revitalization pro- 
 gram for the Northeast. 
 
 Method: This study is based on a field survey 
 of 900 business, labor, government, civic, and 
 academic representatives and a research survey 
 of available knowledge about the Northeastern 
 economy. A general summary of the findings 
 and recommendations for action are highlight- 
 ed in this volume. 
 
 Findings: Various forces have been falsely 
 identified as primary causes of the Northeast's 
 demographic and economic decline; these in- 
 clude the alleged flight of industry to the Sun- 
 belt, purported high labor costs in the North- 
 east, poor productivity, and allegedly high state 
 and local taxes. Major contributors to the 
 region's problems include: (1) high firm closure 
 rates combined with low firm birth rates, (2) 
 lagging investment for start-up firms and 
 modernization of plants, (3) poorly targeted 
 Federal expenditures, and (4) lack of coherent 
 national policy on regional growth and devel- 
 opment. 
 
 The structural problems in the Northeastern 
 economy are concentrated in the "mature" ur- 
 ban areas. Hence, a targeted urban develop- 
 ment strategy must be incorporated in any 
 
 II-2. 
 
 viable revitalization effort. Emphasis on new 
 indigenous enterprises in the urban areas 
 should be a major component of the develop- 
 ment strategy. Federal policies must be better 
 coordinated. More cooperation between 
 government, business, labor, and the North- 
 east's civic and academic leadership must be 
 engendered to improve the operation of labor 
 and capital markets. 
 
 The Northeast should "build upon the newly 
 existing framework of regional organizations 
 to begin revitalization efforts." Feasible ap- 
 proaches to achieve this objective include the 
 creation of a Northeastern Development Coun- 
 cil and/or the establishment of an Inter- 
 governmental Commission. 
 
 Forty potential elements for action or re- 
 search including their cost and phasing are 
 identified. An urban residential strategy, voca- 
 tional-technical curriculum planning, CETA 
 evaluation, and a transportation moderniza- 
 tion plan are several of the elements examined. 
 
 Title: Stimulating the Economy of the Great 
 
 Lakes States 
 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 
 Problems 
 
 Date: December 1977 Pp.: 265 NTIS: PB 
 
 282 742 Price Code: A12 
 
 Purpose: To survey the economic problems 
 facing the Great Lakes region. Also highlights 
 potential strategies for correcting these prob- 
 lems and stimulating the Great Lakes economy. 
 The report is intended to serve as a guideline 
 for action for the Committee for Great Lakes 
 Economic Action. 
 
II-3. 
 
 Method: The findings and recommendations II-4. 
 
 are derived from two sources: (1) interviews 
 with approximately 800 leaders of business, 
 government, labor, and civic affairs in the 
 Great Lakes region, and (2) an economic and 
 demographic analysis of the region based on 
 existing data and original research on economic 
 interdependencies within the six-state region. 
 The two sources of information are combined 
 and contrasted. 
 
 Findings: The growing concentration of unem- 
 ployment in the central cities is the major prob- 
 lem of the region. Each of the States should 
 undertake a detailed study of workmen's com- 
 pensation and unemployment compensation 
 laws "to determine the advantages and disad- 
 vantages of nationalization of both of these 
 programs for the Great Lakes region." 
 
 The high death rate of firms is a primary 
 cause for the region's economic stagnation. 
 Federal incentives for modernization of plants, 
 such as larger tax credits or higher depreciation 
 allowances, should be examined. 
 
 Although the region has an abundance of 
 coal, it is high in sulfur content. Federal 
 research and development on the use of high- 
 sulfur coal is needed. Finally, the region has 
 been receiving less Federal grants per capita for 
 sewage treatment facilities. Action to secure 
 additional grants should be initiated. 
 
 Title: The South and the Nation 
 Author: Reubin O' D. Askew 
 Organization: Governor of Florida 
 Date: January, 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: All 
 
 Purpose: To provide an introduction to the 
 Southern Growth Policies Board (SGPB) series 
 of occasional papers. 
 
 Method: Each of the occasional papers submit- 
 ted to the Board is briefly referenced. Stress is 
 placed on the need for a greater and more via- 
 ble governmental role at all levels in the II— 5. 
 development process. 
 
 Findings: In the future, government must en- 
 sure more balanced growth. The total effects of 
 government programs must be considered. An 
 economically sound Nation is a necessary con- 
 dition for an economically strong South. An at- 
 tempt to revitalize the North by channeling 
 funds away from the South will only result in 
 reducing total U.S. growth. Policies must ad- 
 dress the basic cause for the Northern slow- 
 down. 
 
 Title: Economic Transition of Distressed 
 
 Communities (3 volumes) 
 
 Author: Kirkor Bozdogan 
 
 Organization: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 
 
 Date: June 1974 
 
 Volume I —NTIS: COM-75- 10604; Price 
 
 Code: A 10 
 
 Volume II —NTIS: COM-75- 10605; Price 
 
 Code: A09 
 
 Volume III— 7V77S: COM-75- 10606; Price 
 
 Code: A04 (appendices) 
 
 Purpose: To identify the relative importance of 
 variables affecting regional economic transi- 
 tion or recovery. Also explored is the nature of 
 the economic relationships that emerge in the 
 transition process. 
 
 Method: This three-volume report on economic 
 transition in distressed communities provides 
 an interpretative and statistical cross-section 
 analysis of 17 communities. Both descriptive 
 statistics and regression analysis are employed. 
 From this sample 4 case studies (Hopkinsville, 
 Kentucky; Greenville, South Carolina; Lowell, 
 Massachusetts; and Altoona, Pennsylvania) 
 were undertaken to gain an understanding of 
 the dynamics of recovery. The case studies ex- 
 amined the sources of economic distress and 
 documented the recovery process. Selected 
 methods of regional economic analyses (e.g. 
 shift-share) were applied. 
 
 Findings: Based on the cross-sectional data, 
 growth in manufacturing employment is the 
 central aspect of economic recovery. Based on 
 the cross-sectional regression analysis, high 
 wage rates exert a negative influence on growth 
 and recovery while the availability of local in- 
 frastructure facilities are of secondary impor- 
 tance. The major conclusions from the case 
 studies are that industries are attracted to com- 
 munities with a surplus of semi-skilled and 
 skilled workers, low wages, and lack of union 
 strength. 
 
 Title: Southern Growth Trends 1970-1976 
 
 Authors: E. Evan Brunson and Thomas D. 
 
 Bever 
 
 Organization: Southern Growth Policies Board 
 
 Date: June 1977 Pp.: 55 NTIS: PB 279 
 
 473 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To identify growth issues for the 
 South in the next decade. 
 
 Method: Analyzes historical growth trends in 
 the South, including population trends and set- 
 tlement patterns, changes in economic struc- 
 ture, energy production and consumption 
 trends, population and income projections. 
 These trends are extrapolated into the future. 
 
 The analysis of population trends is taken 
 primarily from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. 
 
 8 
 
Economic trends are based on studies by 
 Lawrence K. Lynch from the University of 
 Kentucky and William H. Miernyk from West 
 Virginia University. Energy trends analysis 
 comes primarily from Russell L. Howard and 
 work done by the Oak Ridge National Labora- 
 tory. Other statistics originate from the Bureau 
 of Economic Analysis and EDA reports. 
 Several other papers from Southern research 
 groups are also utilized. 
 
 Findings: Conflicts over economy, energy and 
 the environment will be the major growth 
 policy issues in the South. Southern population 
 growth outstrips other areas and is a result of 
 the out-migration from the Northeast and 
 North Central regions to more plentiful 
 Southern jobs. This migration was composed 
 mainly of whites, although since 1970 there has 
 been a net migration of blacks to the South. 
 
 Although population is growing slightly fast- 
 er in Southern cities, in general there is bal- 
 anced growth between the metropolitan and 
 nonmetropolitan areas. Southern economic 
 growth is best characterized in this decade as 
 dispersed and decentralized, with many former 
 losers in population and economic activity now 
 gaining. 
 
 II-6. Title: The Declining Northeast: Demographic 
 and Economic Analyses 
 Author: Benjamin Chinitz, ed. 
 Organization: State University of New York 
 (Binghamton) 
 Date: 1978 
 
 Published in: The Decline of New York in 
 the 1970s, NTIS: PB 269 570, Price Code: A10 
 
 Purpose: This book records the proceedings of 
 a conference held in Binghamton, New York, 
 at which the facts, the diagnoses, and policy 
 implications of the economic and fiscal circum- 
 stances of New York State and the Northeast 
 region were presented and discussed. 
 
 Method: Seventeen experts in economics and 
 public affairs, including Alan K. Campbell, 
 Harold M. Hochman and Peter Bearse, empha- 
 size the difficulties of adjusting to declining 
 economic and human resources in New York 
 State specifically, and the Northeast in general. 
 Topics discussed range from the effect of popu- 
 lation loss on education and housing to an 
 examination of downward trends in regional 
 employment and income. 
 
 Findings: Proposals to ease the region's eco- 
 nomic problems during the transition period 
 should center on selecting priorities in the ad- 
 justment of public services. With appropriate 
 Federal aid, severe, across-the-board cutbacks 
 in public services can be avoided in favor of a 
 slow rate of growth in public services. 
 
 II-7. 
 
 Title: Study of Clustering of Industries 
 Author: Stan Czamanski 
 Organization: Dalhousie University 
 Date: 1974 Pp.: 154 NTIS: PB 
 275 Price Code: A08 
 
 254 
 
 II-8. 
 
 Purpose: To identify clusters of industries 
 capable of generating multiplier effects when 
 introduced into depressed regional economies. 
 
 Method: This volume describes the verification 
 of hypotheses dealing with the role of agglom- 
 eration economies in industry location choice 
 and the impacts on local economies of these 
 choices. Sixteen clusters of industries and their 
 characteristics are identified. The types of 
 clusters examined are: heavy manufacturing, 
 construction and light manufacturing, and ser- 
 vice activities. An input-output table is used to 
 derive intra-cluster multipliers. Several appen- 
 dices deal with grouping of industries, size 
 distribution of industries, linkages, linkages 
 among industries, and interindustry multiplier 
 effects. 
 
 The input-output table used was originally 
 developed by P. J. Bourque, et a!., The Wash- 
 ington Interindustry Study for 1963, which was 
 condensed by Czamanski. The Office of Busi- 
 ness Economics Table, Input-Output Structure 
 of the U.S. Economy: 1963, was also utilized. 
 
 Findings: The impact of a new activity upon a 
 smaller region might be far more important 
 than in a large, well developed economy. This 
 finding contradicts the belief that multiplier ef- 
 fects are stronger in larger cities because larger 
 economies have less leakages and hence, higher 
 multipliers. This apparent incongruity occurs 
 because several different types of multipliers 
 follow the introduction of a new activity into a 
 regional economy. There appear to be multipli- 
 ers generated within the industry cluster itself 
 as well as multipliers generated in the rest of the 
 regional economy. 
 
 The largest intracluster multipliers were asso- 
 ciated with manufacturing activities, while ser- 
 vices showed much lower values. Regional 
 multipliers are as a rule much lower than the in- 
 tracluster multipliers. 
 
 Title: Development Patterns and Potentials of 
 Selected Distressed Areas 
 Author: Henry L. Eskew 
 Organization: Administrative Sciences Cor- 
 poration 
 
 Date: March 1974 Pp.: 26 NTIS: 
 COM-75- 1 0742 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To present evidence and insights to 
 aid EDA in its allocation of program funds to 
 individual areas. 
 
 Method: Two hypotheses are tested: 1) 
 economic development patterns and potentials 
 
II-9. 
 
 of counties are more closely tied to their parent 
 regions (States) than to the national economy; 
 and 2) intra-regional variations in development 
 patterns and potential are the result of differ- 
 ences in industrial structures and real economic 
 attributes. Tabular comparisons of summary 
 statistical measures such as root-mean-square 
 differences and zero-order correlation co-effi- 
 cients are utilized. The research for this study 
 was based on regression analysis of seventeen 
 counties done for EDA by Arthur D. Little, 
 Inc. (ADL). ADL also prepared expository 
 discussions of four analytic methods used in 
 regional economic studies: economic base, 
 shift-share, comparative cost, and input-output 
 analysis. This study builds on the ADL effort 
 in two ways. First, although different data 
 sources, definitions and methods were used, 
 the same seventeen areas constituted the focal 
 point for analysis. Second, the present study 
 examined the feasibility of overcoming the 
 limitations of shift-share analysis discussed in 
 the ADL report. Data for the comparisons 
 come primarily from the Bureau of the Census. 
 
 Findings: The developmental patterns and 
 economic potential of counties are more af- 
 fected by the State economy than by the na- 
 tional economy. Intraregional variations in 
 development can be explained by differences in 
 area characteristics and industry structures. 
 
 In allocating EDA funds, emphasis should 
 be on the development potential of the in- 
 dividual States. Forecasts by EDA's Multi- 
 Regional Input-Output Model could be used 
 for this purpose. Attention should be paid to 
 the county's industrial structure vis-a-vis the 
 parent region (State) as well as the levels of per 
 capita employment and school years completed 
 relative to the State norm. Also, a search 
 should be conducted to evaluate the effects of 
 substituting regional for national trends in ap- 
 plications of shift-share analysis, that form of 
 analysis being the most reliable for construct- 
 ing indicators of development potential. 
 
 Title: Statistical Models of Sub-Regional and 
 Regional Employment Change: A Feasibility 
 Study 
 
 Authors: Henry L. Eskew and Thomas P. 
 Frazier 
 
 Organization: Administrative Sciences Cor- 
 poration 
 
 Date: February 1979 Pp.: 65 NTIS: 
 COM-75- 1 0608 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To examine employment change at 
 the sub-regional and regional levels, in order to 
 identify a set of quantitative measures that can 
 be used as criteria for evaluating CETA invest- 
 ments. 
 
 11-10. 
 
 Method: The study is confined geographically 
 to the six-State Midwest Administrative 
 Region. A regression analysis is conducted in 
 two phases, the first focusing on individual 
 counties, and the second on Bureau of 
 Economic Analysis (BEA) trade areas. In both 
 cases, the relationship between the employment 
 change from 1967 and 1969 and a set of explan- 
 atory variables is formulated and tested. Some 
 of the independent variables for 1967 include: 
 mean-school years completed, property tax, 
 general expenditures by local government, 
 earnings per worker, new capital expenditures 
 in manufacturing per worker, and population. 
 Data are drawn from BEA County Business 
 Patterns, the County and City Data Book, and 
 the Census of Population. 
 
 Findings: Employment change is explained bet- 
 ter in multi-county areas than at the individual 
 county level. For individual counties of widely 
 varying size (50,000 to 2.7 million), the larger 
 jurisdictions tend to experience greater employ- 
 ment growth. However, within the 75,000 to 
 250,000 range, population is less important 
 than new capital expenditures in explaining 
 employment change. Capital expenditures were 
 found to have a negative effect on employment 
 (i.e., new capital tends to be labor-saving). 
 
 The analysis of BEA trade areas revealed one 
 dominant explanatory variable: local govern- 
 ment direct general expenditures (i.e., educa- 
 tion, highways, public health and welfare). 
 
 Population and new capital expenditures in 
 the case of counties and local government ex- 
 penditures in the case of larger areas are recom- 
 mended for use in EDA's decision making 
 process. The detailed statistical results should 
 provide useful reference data for specific plan- 
 ning and evaluation needs. 
 
 Title: The Regional Data Quarterly: A 
 
 Compilation of Nine Economic Performance 
 
 Indicators for New England, Mid- Atlantic, and 
 
 Midwestern States 
 
 Organization: Council for Northeast Economic 
 
 Action and Chase Econometrics 
 
 Date: April, 1 978 Pp. : 89 
 
 For further information contact the Council 
 for Northeast Economic Action, 100 Federal 
 Street, 17th floor, Boston, Mass. 02110, or the 
 EDA Office of Technical Assistance. 
 
 Purpose: This periodical provides data on the 
 economic performance of the Northeast, Mid- 
 Atlantic, and the Midwest on a regional as well 
 as State-by-State basis. It also compares State 
 and regional economic performance to national 
 economic trends. 
 
 Method: Included is a general discussion of the 
 national economy. For each of the eighteen 
 
 10 
 
States and three regions examined, there is a 
 quarterly data series on employment, housing, 
 income, and consumption. In addition, the per- 
 formance of each State and regional economy 
 for the previous quarter is discussed. 
 
 Findings: There are no findings associated with 
 this report. 
 
 11-11. Title: The Economic Impact on Local Areas of 
 the Program of the Economic Development 
 Administration 
 
 Author: Robert E. Graham, Jr. and Randolph 
 Martin 
 
 Organization: University of South Carolina 
 Date: May 1977 Pp.: 101 NTIS: PB 268 
 229 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To assess the impact of Economic 
 Development Administration programs on eco- 
 nomic growth and development in economic- 
 ally lagging areas of the United States during 
 thel960'sandl970's. 
 
 Method: Comparisons are made between coun- 
 ties receiving and not receiving EDA assistance, 
 with respect to changes in growth rates of per- 
 sonal income, per capita income, total employ- 
 ment, and unemployment rates. These compar- 
 isons are made both before and during aid 
 periods. A series of regression models are used 
 to isolate EDA's impact. These models take in- 
 to account additional factors (other than EDA 
 assistance) that might affect personal income 
 and per capita income. A preliminary examina- 
 tion of the effect EDA assistance has had on 
 migration is highlighted. Finally, several case 
 studies of counties that received large amounts 
 of EDA assistance (Klickitat County in Wash- 
 ington, Garrett County in Maryland, and 
 Carteret County in North Carolina) are dis- 
 cussed. Most of the data are from three 
 sources: 1) EDA, 2) Bureau of Economic 
 Analysis, and 3) U.S. Census Bureau. 
 
 Findings: EDA assistance increased county in- 
 come growth rates (aggregate and per capita). 
 Aggregate income growth in EDA-aided coun- 
 ties accelerated and surpassed growth in non- 
 aided counties. This same trend occurred in 
 employment growth. The EDA-aided counties 
 experienced a greater reduction in unemploy- 
 ment rates, although absolute improvement 
 was disappointing and the level of unemploy- 
 ment still unacceptably large (5.6% in 1970). 
 The sample size used to obtain migration data 
 was too small to yield reliable results. 
 
 11-12. Title: Regional Labor Supply Response to 
 Negative Income Tax Programs 
 Author: David H. Greenberg and James R. 
 Hosek 
 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: February 1976 Pp.: 139 NTIS: PB 
 254 311 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: Analyzes the likely effects of alterna- 
 tive negative income tax programs (NITs), with 
 particular emphasis on regional labor-supply 
 responses. Also examines the effects of NITs 
 on reducing poverty at the regional level. 
 
 Method: The study proceeds in two steps. First, 
 First, an econometric model is built, based on 
 regional labor-supply equations. Separate 
 equations are estimated for working husbands 
 and wives, and working members of the vari- 
 ous races, in the various (census) regions. The 
 equations are based on economic theory, incor- 
 porating both income and substitution effects 
 in labor-supply responses. 
 
 Second, simulations of the effects on labor 
 supply and other variables are made, after the 
 introduction of four versions of possible NITs. 
 The authors adopt a "policy substitution ap- 
 proach," assuming that the NITs will eliminate 
 some or all of the existing welfare programs. 
 
 The study utilizes data from the Census 
 Bureau, plus labor-supply estimates from a 
 variety of other studies. 
 
 Findings: There are significant regional differ- 
 ences in labor-supply responses to a NIT. These 
 differences are due to regional variation in 
 labor-supply responsiveness to husband-wife 
 wage-rate differentials; differences in labor- 
 supply responsiveness among races (where 
 racial composition varies among regions); 
 various mixes of welfare programs (where the 
 fraction of households participating in current 
 programs differs regionally). 
 
 Under a typical scenario, the South, having 
 the largest number of households participating 
 in a NIT, would receive the largest subsidy (fol- 
 lowed closely by participating households in 
 the North Central regions). These regions 
 would receive the most (relative) benefit in 
 poverty-reduction. 
 
 In no case would labor hours supplied be re- 
 duced more than one percent because of a NIT 
 in any region. 
 
 11 
 
11-13. Title: Measuring the Regional Economic Im- 11-14. 
 
 pacts of the Federal Grant Programs 
 Author: Richard D. Gustely 
 Organization: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 
 U.S. Department of Commerce 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 39 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: Examines the regional economic im- 
 pacts of Federal grant-in-aid programs and 
 identifies the range of methodologies employed 
 in related research. Also explores promising 
 areas for future research. 
 
 Method: The regional effects of Federal grant- 
 in-aid programs are classified into four cate- 
 gories: fiscal effects, microeconomic effects, 
 macroeconomic effects, and interregional ef- 
 fects. No empirical comparisons are given. 
 Methods for measuring grant impacts are dis- 
 cussed, including the use of descriptive 
 statistics, input-output, and econometric 
 models. The overall trends in Federal aid are 
 given using data from the U.S. budget and the 
 Survey of Current Business. 
 
 Findings: Federal grants have increased dra- 
 matically in the past decade. From 1970-1978, 
 Federal grants increased 230% in absolute 
 terms. As a result, some cities have become 
 heavily dependent on that aid. The geograph- 
 ical distribution of this aid has shifted (to the 
 Northeastern and North Central States), and 
 the character of Federal aid has changed (to 
 general-purpose and broad-based categories). 
 
 Open-ended matching grants are most likely 
 to stimulate total spending and increase taxa- 
 tion. Behavioral models were found to be the 
 superior methodology for measuring fiscal and 
 microeconomic effects of Federal aid. Input- 
 output models are the most sophisticated 
 means to measure the macroeconomic and in- 11-15. 
 
 terregional impacts. 
 
 More consistency in grant impact analysis is 
 needed, so that the results of different studies 
 can be more easily compared and evaluated. 
 Promising areas for future grant-impact 
 research include modeling the effects of grants 
 on the composition of governmental expendi- 
 tures, modeling the indirect effects of grant 
 programs on the capital, land and labor mar- 
 kets, determining the extent to which different 
 types of aid programs impact on various sec- 
 tors of the regional economy, and analyzing the 
 geographical distribution of Federal aid. 
 
 Title: Financing the South's Economic 
 
 Expansion 
 
 Author: Dr. Charles F. Haywood 
 
 Organization: University of Kentucky 
 
 Date: January, 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: Al 1 
 
 Purpose: To evaluate the adequacy of capital 
 sources to meet the long-term demands of 
 Southern growth. 
 
 Method: Five crucial areas of concern for the 
 Southern economy are discussed and analyzed. 
 These areas are: (1) the long-term economic 
 outlook; (2) the long-term outlook for capital 
 requirements; (3) the long-term outlook for 
 debt expansion; (4) the role of the banking 
 system, and (5) evidence of capital availability. 
 Selected data from the Federal Reserve Bank of 
 Atlanta are used to document the analysis. 
 
 Findings: In long-term projections to 1990, the 
 South is ranked first in future relative growth, 
 in personal income, employment, population 
 and per capita income. While data deficiencies 
 preclude a reliable estimate for long-term capi- 
 tal requirements, a moderate forecast indicates 
 a need for investment spending ranging from 
 about $80 billion in 1976 to $250 billion in 
 1990. Debt is estimated to range from $60 
 billion in 1976 to $225 billion in 1990. 
 
 The South has benefited from large capital 
 inflows from other regions and this trend may 
 be expected to continue so long as the South 
 provides relatively attractive returns on capital. 
 With respect to energy, the South will continue 
 to enjoy a comparative advantage. 
 
 Title: Documenting the "Decline" of the North 
 Authors: Carol L. Jusenius and Larry C. 
 Ledebur 
 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration (Visiting Scholars) 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 21 NTIS: PB 80 
 131535 Price Code: A02 
 
 Purpose: Examines the hypothesis that the 
 poor employment performance of the North 
 (New England, Middle Atlantic and East North 
 Central) is due to the migration of firms to the 
 South. 
 
 Method: Investigates recent changes in the 
 composition of business enterprises and the mi- 
 gration of these firms to, from, and within the 
 Northern region. The migration debate is 
 resolved by making intraregional and inter- 
 regional comparisions as to the source of firm 
 and employment losses. Comparisons are made 
 of firm birth, death, and migration rates by in- 
 dustry within and between regions. 
 
 12 
 
The study utilizes a file from Dun and Brad- 11-17. 
 
 street containing data on nearly one million 
 firms over a five-year period. This data base 
 permitted "the examination of firms by loca- 
 tion, industry and employment size, not only at 
 a point in time, but over time." 
 
 Findings: Out-migration of employers is a 
 relatively insignificant problem for the North. 
 The primary source of firm and employment 
 losses was the closure of firms, not their migra- 
 tion. However, the Middle Atlantic States have 
 suffered from the migration of firms between 
 States within the North. 
 
 11-16. Title: Federal and Regional Responses to the 
 Economic Decline of the Northern Industrial 
 Tier 
 
 Authors: Carol L. Jusenius and Larry C. 
 Ledebur 
 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration (Visiting Scholars) 
 Date: March 1977 Pp.: 19 NTIS: PB 267 
 779 Price Code: A02 
 
 Purpose: To assess the relative well-being of 
 regions, particularly the Northern Industrial 
 Tier. 
 
 Method: Evidence is presented on indicators 
 of economic development and distress for all 50 
 States, and a ranking of States is proposed. 
 Federal policy issues which appear to be of 
 great long-term importance to the Nation and 
 the Northern Tier are discussed. Empirical data 
 for this report come from three main sources: 
 Survey of Current Business, Bureau of the Cen- 
 sus reports and Current Population Reports. 
 Augmenting these were various articles from 
 the National Journal and Wall Street Journal, 
 among other publications. 
 
 Findings: Three main propositions are 
 developed. First, available data do not support 
 the interpretation that the economic problems 
 of one region are more serious than another. 
 States within each region exhibit a significant 
 range of variation in economic problems. 
 Whereas unemployment is a serious problem in 
 the North, the major problem for the South is 
 poverty. n _ 18 
 
 In view of this evidence, four issues need to 
 be considered in formulating a national policy 
 for regional economic development: the dis- 
 tributional impacts of Federal programs, estab- 
 lishment of overall distributional and develop- 
 ment objectives, consolidation of Federal 
 development assistance programs, and the use 
 of distributional controls or incentives. Instead 
 of fighting over Federal monies, regions should 
 realize that their economies are interdependent, 
 and as such, there should be cooperation be- 
 tween the States themselves. 
 
 Title: The Migration of Firms and Workers in 
 
 Ohio, 1970-1975 
 
 Author: Carol L. Jusenius and Larry Ledebur 
 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 
 Problems 
 
 Date: 1917 Pp.: IS 
 
 Available from: Publications Department, 
 Academy for Contemporary Problems, 1501 
 Neil Avenue, Columbus Ohio, 43201. Include 
 $1 .50 and return address. 
 
 Purpose: To assess the underlying trends that 
 have contributed to employment and firm 
 losses in Ohio and other States in the East 
 North Central region. 
 
 Method: The birth and closure rates of firms in 
 Ohio are examined. The migration of both 
 firms and workers is assessed. With respect to 
 workers, origins and destinations, as well as 
 socio-economic characteristics, are examined. 
 
 The data for birth, death, and migratory pat- 
 terns of firms are derived from Dun and Brad- 
 street data files. The Social Security Continu- 
 ous Work History Sample is the source of in- 
 formation for the migration patterns of Ohio 
 workers. 
 
 Findings: Firm losses in Ohio (and the East 
 North Central region in general) during the 
 1970's can be attributed primarily to a larger 
 number of firm closings relative to the small 
 number of new firm openings. The out-migra- 
 tion of firms has not been a significant cause of 
 Ohio's economic problems. There were rela- 
 tively few new branch firm "births." Manufac- 
 turing firm "death" rates exceeded manufac- 
 turing firm "birth" rates in every employment 
 size category. 
 
 Unlike the 1965-1970 time span, the 
 1970-1975 time period witnessed a net out- 
 migration of workers in Ohio. This trend is at- 
 tributed more to a larger decrease in the in- 
 migration of workers than to an increase in 
 worker out-migration. 
 
 The most significant changes between the 
 two time periods from net in- to net out- 
 migration occurred among black workers and 
 those workers in the lowest income categories. 
 
 Title: A Myth in the Making: The Southern 
 Economic Challenge and Northern Economic 
 Decline 
 
 Authors: C. L. Jusenius and L. C. Ledebur 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration (Visiting Scholars) 
 Date: November 1976 Pp.: 47 NTIS: PB 
 263 631 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To examine the comparative levels of 
 economic development in the North and South. 
 
 Method: The study evaluates the comparative 
 economic performance of the North and South 
 
 13 
 
11-19. 
 
 in terms of: population, income, income dis- 
 tribution, poverty, personal wealth, employ- 
 ment, unemployment, and distributional im- 
 pacts of fiscal policy. Both time-series and 
 cross-sectional data from numerous Federal 
 sources are used to document regional dispari- 
 ties. 
 
 Findings: There is no correlation between the 
 decline of the North and recent rise in the 
 economic vitality of the South. The problem of 
 poverty remains more pervasive in the South, 
 while per capita income remains higher in the 
 North. The primary cause of declining employ- 
 ment in the North appears to be the result of 
 the closing of existing firms. Conversely, the 
 primary reason for increased employment in 
 the South has been the expansion of existing 
 firms. Lastly, while the North confronts 
 serious economic problems, it retains a lead 
 over the South in economic development in 
 both aggregate and per capita terms. In fact, 
 recent evidence would indicate that in 1975 the 
 relative position of the South has declined. 
 Even the relative improvement of the Southern 
 States is a cyclical phenomenon which may not 
 be sustained through the full recovery of the 
 economy. Therefore, policy decisions based on 
 evidence from the 1970-1975 period may be 
 misconstrued. 
 
 Further, the claim that the Northern States 
 would benefit from a reallocation of Federal 
 program benefits is unsupported. The regional 
 economies are highly interdependent. A care- 
 fully conceived development policy which miti- 
 gates economic distress in particular regions 
 and harmonizes regional growth is essential. 
 
 Title: The Northern Tier and the Sunbelt: 
 Conflict or Cooperation? 
 Authors: Carol L. Jusenius and Larry C. 
 Ledebur 
 
 Organization: Ohio State and Denison Univer- 
 sities 
 Date: April 1977 Pp.: 6 
 
 Published in: Challenge, March-April, 1977 
 
 Purpose: To examine regional economic prob- 
 lems and to propose public prescriptions at 
 both the Federal and regional level. 
 
 Method: The authors establish the existence of 
 interregional rivalries, especially between the 
 North and South, by reference to quotes by 
 public officials and the existing policies of 
 regional coalitions. Data on income, taxes, and 
 population taken from selected Federal sources 
 are introduced to document that economic dis- 
 parities favor no particular region. 
 
 Findings: A higher priority within the Federal 
 Government should be given to economic 
 development assistance. Fiscal stimulation of 
 
 the Northern economy would have a net posi- 
 tive result for the entire Nation. Further, the 
 focus on interregional economic comparisons 
 of Federal tax and expenditure patterns should 
 be shifted and more attention paid to concrete 
 issues. The study concludes by urging the for- 
 mulation of a national development strategy 
 which would address (1) distributional impacts 
 of Federal programs, (2) establishment of dis- 
 tributional and development objectives, (3) 
 consolidation of Federal development assis- 
 tance programs, and (4) distributional controls 
 or incentives. 
 
 11-20. Title: Where Have All the Firms Gone? An 
 Analysis of the New England Economy 
 Author: Carol L. Jusenius and Larry C. 
 Ledebur 
 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration (Visiting Scholars) 
 Date: September 1977 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 
 284 785 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To explain why employment in New 
 England has grown more slowly than employ- 
 ment in the United States economy during the 
 years 1969 to 1974. The study also examines 
 what effect the shifting configuration of firms 
 has had and is likely to have on the kinds of 
 jobs which are available in the area. 
 
 Method: Presents descriptive, empirical infor- 
 mation about recent changes in the configura- 
 tion of firms in New England. Also examines 
 the birth and death rates of firms during the 
 period. Data are gathered for single-unit firms, 
 and for both headquarters and branch loca- 
 tions of multi-unit firms, by industry type. In- 
 terregional and intraregional migration of 
 firms is analyzed. For interregional flows, 
 regions from which firms in-migrated or to 
 which firms out-migrated are tallied and in- 
 dustry types summarized. 
 
 Most of the data are from a Dun and Brad- 
 street sample. These data provide information 
 on the status and changing status of firms by 
 such characteristics as industry class, numbers 
 of employees, geographic locations, etc. 
 Regional employment data from the U.S. 
 Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. 
 Department of Commerce are also presented. 
 
 Findings: Relative to the U.S. economy, New 
 England historically has specialized in two in- 
 dustries: Manufacturing, and Finance, In- 
 surance and Real Estate. The slow growth rate 
 of employment in New England during the 
 years 1969 to 1974 cannot be attributed to an 
 above-average death rate for firms in either of 
 those industry types. Instead, the problem lies 
 in a relatively low birth rate, especially for 
 manufacturing firms (in contrast, the birth rate 
 of firms in the Finance, Insurance and Real 
 
 14 
 
Estate industry was quite high). Contrary to the 
 belief of many, New England actually gained 
 firms through net in-migration over the six- 
 year period. 
 
 The configuration of multi-unit firms 
 changed during the period. Firm headquarters 
 tended to increase, and firm branches to 
 decrease, in the New England area. From the 
 combined effects of the relative decline in 
 manufacturing and the relative increase in 
 headquarters functions, a shift from blue- 
 collar to white-collar employment occurred in 
 New England. 
 
 11-21 . Title: The Future of the South's Economy 
 Author: Herman Kahn 
 Organization: Hudson Institute 
 Date: December 1 976 Pp. : 22 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South 's Eco- 
 nomy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: Al 1 
 
 Purpose: To assess the prospects for and deter- 
 minants of economic growth in the South. 
 
 Method: A wide range of topics is covered in 
 this speech given at the Southern Growth Poli- 
 cies Board conference. Comparisons are made 
 between the South, the rest of the Nation and 
 other nations, in various stages of develop- 
 ment. 
 
 Findings: The South has grown about fifty per- 
 cent faster than the rest of the country since 
 1950 in total economy. The South will continue 
 to grow much faster than the Northeast. The 
 crucial element is not resources but the 
 character of the people. People in the South 
 have a better appreciation for work than do 
 their counterparts in the Northeast. The North- 
 east culture has traditionally been very favor- 
 able to growth in the past but is becoming in- 
 creasingly anti-growth. 
 
 11-22. Title: Income Distribution in the South 
 Author: Madelyn M. Lockhart 
 Organization: University of Florida 
 Date: January 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: Al 1 
 
 Purpose: To describe and project income 
 distribution in the South. Also, to evaluate 
 measures aimed at changing the distribution of 
 income. 
 
 Method: After an analysis of concepts such as 
 income and income distribution, the demogra- 
 phic aspects and projections of income, em- 
 ployment, and population are discussed. Data 
 from Census reports and the Survey of Current 
 Business are utilized. 
 
 Findings: The size of the income "pie" in the 
 South has been increasing, both in absolute 
 
 terms and relative to the Nation as a whole. 
 However, the South still has a higher propor- 
 tion of families below the defined poverty level, 
 16 percent compared to 12 percent nationally. 
 Significant changes in the distribution of 
 money income are not likely in the near future. 
 Alternatives for increasing income equality in- 
 clude the negative income tax, a voucher sys- 
 tem attached to a specific set of goods and ser- 
 vices, and tax reform to eliminate highly 
 regressive tax structures at the State and local 
 level. The effects of increased educational op- 
 portunities are long run, and the evidence on its 
 distributional impact is ambiguous. 
 
 11-23. Title: The Changing Structure of the Southern 
 Economy 
 
 Author: William H. Miernyk 
 Organization: West Virginia University 
 Date: January 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: Al 1 
 
 Purpose: To analyze the changing structure of 
 the Southern economy between 1940 and 1975, 
 and to determine the potential for continued 
 Southern growth and development. 
 
 Method: A comparative analysis of the struc- 
 ture of the Southern economy between 1940 
 and 1975 is presented. Emphasis is placed on 
 the relative distribution of employment and its 
 relation to per capita income. The Clark-Fisher 
 hypothesis is discussed and its application to 
 the Southern economy is evaluated. The Clark- 
 Fisher hypothesis postulates a functional rela- 
 tionship between an economic structure and 
 per capita income. For example, a country with 
 a large percentage of workers in the primary 
 sector (agriculture, fishing) should have a lower 
 per capita income than one with a greater 
 percentage in the secondary (manufacturing, 
 mining, construction) and tertiary (service in- 
 dustries) sectors. Selected data from the Survey 
 of Current Business and private sources are 
 used. 
 
 Findings: Major differences in the structure of 
 employment existed between the South and the 
 rest of the Nation in 1940. By 1975, however, 
 most of the differences had disappeared. It is 
 likely the South will continue to grow at a 
 faster rate than the Nation as a whole. Employ- 
 ment in both the trades and services sectors can 
 be expected to increase as should the per capita 
 income of the region. 
 
 15 
 
11-24. Title: Midwest State Profiles 
 
 Author: Northeast-Midwest Congressional 
 
 Coalition 
 
 Organization: Northeast-Midwest Institute 
 
 Date: September 1 978 Pp. : 57 
 
 For further information, contact the North- 
 east-Midwest Institute, 3588 House Annex No. 
 2, Washington, D.C. 20515 
 
 Purpose: This paper provides a quick reference 
 source of relevant information about the eco- 
 nomies of the Midwest States and explains how 
 some of the activities of the Northeast-Midwest 
 Congressional Coalition have affected those 
 States. 
 
 Method: Provides detailed statistics on unem- 
 ployment rates, employment change, income, 
 business growth, population, etc., for each 
 State in the Midwest as well as general com- 
 ments by the researchers. 
 
 Employment data comes from the Bureau of 
 Labor Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. 
 Income data was obtained from the Depart- 
 ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic 
 Analysis. The Current Population Report 
 Series provided pertinent population data and 
 data on Federal, State and local taxes and 
 revenues came from the Bureau of the Census, 
 series, with additional statistics published in 
 NationalJournal also being used. 
 
 Business growth data sources were: Annual 
 Survey of Manufactures, Construction Review, 
 Bureau of the Census and from Peter M. 
 Allaman and David L. Burch, "Components 
 of Employment Change for States by Industry 
 Group, 1970-1972." Additional data came 
 from Northeast-Midwest Institute. 
 
 Findings: In the Midwest States, it appears that 
 key economic growth indicators lag substan- 
 tially behind the national average. This sug- 
 gests that without major changes, the Midwest 
 will have serious development problems, par- 
 ticularly in the critical manufacturing sectors. 
 A bipartisan congressional coalition organized 
 along regional lines would be useful in drawing 
 support for Midwest growth. 
 
 11-25. Title: The Cause and Quality of Southern 
 Growth 
 
 Author: Mancur Olson 
 Organization: University of Maryland 
 Date: January 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: Al 1 
 
 Purpose: To examine reasons why the South re- 
 mains a distinctive economic region of the 
 country. 
 
 Method: The South has recently experienced 
 exceptional rates of economic growth. Some of 
 the reasons for this growth reside in fundamen- 
 tal differences between the South and the rest 
 
 of the Nation. These differences are examined 
 as are contrasts with several European nations 
 in various stages of economic development. 
 
 Findings: The South has been relatively unaf- 
 fected by the formation of organized interest 
 groups such as labor unions, professional as- 
 sociations, farmers' organizations, lobbying 
 groups, trade associations, and cartels. The ef- 
 fect of such groups on economic growth is pre- 
 dominantly negative. The South, without such 
 groups, has been able thus far to grow more 
 rapidly than the rest of the United States. This 
 growth does not necessarily imply an improve- 
 ment in personal welfare, however. Also, it is 
 unlikely that the South's higher rate of growth 
 will continue unabated. 
 
 11-26. Title: Working Paper on Rail Reorganization 
 Economic Development Issues 
 Organization: RMG Associates, Inc. 
 Date: August 1975 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 256 
 685 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To review the regional impact of the 
 U.S. Railway Association's (USRA) Final Sys- 
 tem Plan to restructure the bankrupt carriers in 
 the Northeast and Midwest. Also highlights 
 possible modifications to EDA's economic de- 
 velopment strategies implied by these impacts. 
 
 Method: Economic development issues 
 associated with the Final System Plan are iden- 
 tified on both a broad regional basis and on a 
 smaller sub-regional basis. Economic impacts 
 are developed for both of these perspectives by 
 analyzing the Final System Plan and referring 
 to a number of other studies. Suggested EDA 
 initiatives in such areas as assistance in State 
 rail planning grant and loan programs and re- 
 search and evaluation initiatives are offered. 
 An appendix presents the highlights of the 
 Final System Plan. 
 
 Most of the analysis was based on prelim- 
 inary studies done by USRA, as well as in- 
 dependent studies by public and private re- 
 searchers. 
 
 Findings: The Final System Plan (FSP) would 
 probably have a beneficial impact on economic 
 development. It can provide more stability to 
 bankrupt carriers through capital investment 
 and reorganization. The loss of service through 
 abandonments will not have a serious regional 
 impact, but may have serious consequences for 
 certain communities in terms of the loss of em- 
 ployment, income, tax base, and attractiveness 
 for new industry development. 
 
 The FSP must have the flexibility for accom- 
 modating future changes in demand, especially 
 future coal production. The major problem is a 
 lack of contingency plans if traffic or market 
 patterns shift significantly in the next 10-15 
 years. 
 
 16 
 
EDA should investigate the impact of FSP 
 on communities, especially where they have 
 already made investments for development. 
 The strength of EDA's concern should be a 
 function of the strength of the relationship be- 
 tween changes in the rail service and the impact 
 on these investments. EDA may also wish to in- 
 crease Title III funds to impacted communities 
 and should be sensitive to the consequences of 
 rail reorganization on their grant and loan pro- 
 grams. EDA's assistance can have greater im- 
 pact if addressed to the sub-regional or com- 
 munity level rather than the large region. 
 
 11-27. Title: Balanced Growth for the Northeast 
 Organization: New York State Senate 
 Date: December 1975 Pp.: 204 NTIS: 
 255 930 Price Code: A09 
 
 PB 
 
 Purpose: To assess the economic problems and 
 potential of the Northeast. To devise regional 
 strategies for balanced growth for the North- 
 east. 
 
 Method: The study is a compilation of papers 
 presented at a conference of legislative leaders 
 on the future of the Northeast, December 
 11-13, 1975. Specific issues discussed included: 
 energy resources, implications of economic 
 maturity, government initiative and restraint, 
 State fiscal difficulties, utility rate regulations, 
 unemployment, demographic trends, and labor 
 and capital markets. Several papers highlighted 
 regional approaches to balanced growth plan- 
 ning (for example, the Southern Growth Poli- 
 cies Board, the Nation's first multi-purpose in- 
 terstate agency, was discussed at length as an 
 exemplary regional planning agency). 
 
 Findings: Given its high energy costs, heavy tax 
 loads, and out-migration of industries and 
 workers, the Northeast is at a serious com- 
 petitive disadvantage. On the other hand, cer- 
 tain characteristics of the Northeast remain im- 
 portant assets. These assets include an ex- 
 perienced, skilled labor force, excellent public 
 and private educational institutions, and 
 strong, responsive local governments. 
 
 Interstate initiatives that include projection 
 planning, econometric modeling, and invest- 
 ment planning are needed to address the North- 
 east's economic problems. Environmental con- 
 cerns must be balanced with economic con- 
 cerns. Various means to improve the invest- 
 ment atmosphere in the region must be devised 
 by State and local governments. 
 
 Development planning will inherently con- 
 flict with politics. This can largely be attributed 
 to the widely differing time horizons between 
 the planner and the politician. 
 
 11-28. Title: The Northeast: Managing A Way 
 Out — Legislative Actions for Survival in the 
 Credit Markets 
 
 Author: Roger C. Thompson and James M. 
 Howell 
 
 Organization: The Steering Committee of 
 Legislative Leaders for Balanced Growth for 
 the Northeast, and the Council for Northeast 
 Economic Action. 
 
 Date: February 1977 Pp.: 158 NTIS: PB 
 270 118 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: This volume contains the proceedings 
 from a symposium on the fiscal problems and 
 economic decline of the Northeast. The sym- 
 posium was held in Boston, Massachusetts in 
 February 1977. 
 
 Method: The symposium proceedings address 
 two problems of the urban Northeast, namely 
 the decline of growth in the private sector and 
 the inability of the public sector to raise 
 revenues to meet the increased demands for 
 social services. Three papers feature a discus- 
 sion of the Volkswagen experience in Pennsyl- 
 vania. Conference participants include senior 
 business leaders, academicians, and politicians. 
 A large appendix contains a special study of 
 State and local government experience in credit 
 markets. 
 
 Findings: The Northeast has reached the stage 
 of "economic maturity," i.e., the private sec- 
 tor appears no longer to be making a net con- 
 tribution to the region's growth. Specifically, 
 there is lagging capital spending, structural 
 problems in labor markets, and a reluctance on 
 the part of business to expand in the region. 
 
 The region has also reached the stage of 
 "governmental maturity" where, with lagging 
 private sector growth and growing public ex- 
 penditures, governmental units have trouble 
 staying solvent. 
 
 To reverse these problems, new private in- 
 vestment will be needed in the region and ex- 
 isting boundaries of government may have to 
 be altered to be more functionally compatible 
 with changing economic patterns. 
 
 17 
 
11-29. Title: The Impact of Vocational and Technical 
 Education on Manpower and Economic Devel- 
 opment 
 
 Author: Francis T. Tuttle and Arch B. Alex- 
 ander 
 
 Organization: State Department of Vocational 
 and Technical Education, Stillwater, 
 Oklahoma 
 
 Date: May 1971 Pp.: 48 NTIS: PB 256 
 316 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: Highlights the role effective voca- 
 tional and technical education can play in 
 regional economic development. It also iden- 
 tifies major features of effective vocational- 
 technical education programs. 
 
 Method: The "special schools" in Oklahoma's 
 vocational-technical educational pogram are 
 examined. Observations are made with respect 
 to the function of the facilities in vocational- 
 technical schools. The importance of an effec- 
 tive State and local vocational-technical 
 management system is also discussed. Specific 
 vocational-technical schools are cited as ex- 
 amples where applicable. 
 
 Findings: Effective vocational-technical educa- 
 tion agencies provide flexible educational op- 
 portunities and facilities. Pooling of industrial 
 training equipment and mobile vocational- 
 technical facilities are two key means of pro- 
 viding this flexibility. 
 
 An effective vocational-technical manage- 
 ment information system is needed to collect 
 and organize the information required for deci- 
 sion making. The Management by Objective 
 (MBO) system adopted by the Oklahoma State 
 Department of Vocational and Technical Edu- 
 cation is a good example of a successful man- 
 agement system. 
 
 Duplication of programs and projects on the 
 Federal level and between Federal and State 
 governments have hindered the training process 
 and should be avoided. 
 
 11-30. Title: Regional Industrial Location 
 Determinants and Their Application to Model- 
 ing 
 
 Author: Leonard F. Wheat 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration 
 Date: May 1979 Pp.: 50 
 
 Limited supply of copies available free from 
 EDA Economic Research Division. 
 
 Purpose: To examine the regional determinants 
 of industrial location. To apply these findings 
 to regional econometric modeling. 
 
 Method: The effects on absolute and relative 
 growth in manufacturing employment of 
 specific locational factors such as markets, 
 
 11-31. 
 
 climate, labor, resources, and thresholds are 
 evaluated via numerous simple, partial, and 
 multiple regression analyses. The merits of 
 alternative approaches to model design (factor, 
 least-cost, and industry-mix/shift-share ap- 
 proaches) are weighed in light of implications 
 from the study's findings on locational factors. 
 Approaches to the design of a factor model are 
 highlighted. 
 
 The paper was presented at the 1979 North- 
 east Regional Science Meetings, Amherst, Mas- 
 sachusetts, May 18-20, 1979. 
 
 Findings: Market considerations (supply- 
 demand ratios) are the leading regional deter- 
 minants of industrial location. Climate and 
 labor (including wages, unionization and labor 
 supply) rank second and third, respectively, as 
 locational determinants. 
 
 The study's findings on industrial location 
 determinants imply that models incorporating 
 specific locational factors are better predictors 
 than the least-cost models and trend models 
 (which include the industry-mix and shift-share 
 concepts). Least-cost models, for example, are 
 unreliable since they do not include the two 
 most important determinants of industrial 
 location: markets and climate. The best ap- 
 proach to model design is one that combines a 
 factor type model with sophisticated trend con- 
 cepts. 
 
 Title: Executive Summary of the Atlantic 
 Conference on Balanced Regional Growth, 
 January 4-6, 1978, Racine, Wisconsin 
 Author: Linda Seagraves 
 Date: January 1978 Pp.: 59 NTIS: PB 299 
 333 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To summarize the proceedings of a 
 January 1978 seminar of policymakers and eco- 
 nomic development specialists from Western 
 Europe, Canada, and the United States. 
 
 Findings: The paper has no findings but rather 
 discusses the fiscal and financial incentives 
 Western nations use to encourage balanced 
 regional development. The report discusses 
 regional incentive policy options used and tried 
 by these nations, including infrastructure pro- 
 vision, state industry, disincentives, and incen- 
 tives. An appendix entitled "Advantages and 
 Disadvantages of Different Regional Incentive 
 Types" analyzes capital grants, soft loans, na- 
 tional profits tax concessions, and accelerated 
 depreciation allowances. 
 
 Note: Papers and proceedings of this con- 
 ference were developed into Balanced National 
 Growth, Lexington Books, 1979. 
 
 18 
 
III. Rural 
 
 Most of the recent EDA research in this area ex- 
 amines and explains the current revitalized status of 
 rural areas. The research is specific in attributing this 
 revitalization to the decentralization of industry, 
 technological improvements in transportation and com- 
 
 munication, energy exploitation, mounting urban prob- 
 lems, and changing lifestyles and early retirements 
 associated with rising income security. However, despite 
 this general picture of vitality, poverty is still a major 
 problem which exists apart from rural growth. 
 
 Ill— 1 . Title: A Preliminary Review of Current 
 Practices and Trends in Rural Telecommuni- 
 cations Development and Recommendations 
 for Future Development 
 Author: Samuel Carradine, et al. 
 Organization: The Booker T. Washington 
 Foundation/Cablecommunications Resources 
 Center 
 
 Date: August 1975 Pp.: 141 NTIS: PB 254 
 366 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: To provide EDA with working 
 knowledge regarding the future course of tele- 
 communications research and development as 
 related to rural economic development. 
 
 Method: Surveyed 18 "informed experts" in 
 the field of rural telecommunications about its 
 potential impact on rural development. The 
 existing literature on telecommunications utili- 
 zation is also reviewed. 
 
 Findings: Few, if any, telecommunications 
 projects have focused specifically on rural 
 areas in spite of the unique ability of telecom- 
 munications to serve such areas. The imple- 
 mentation of telecommunications technolo- 
 gies for rural areas should be evaluated on a 
 regional basis. Regional consideration will im- 
 part economies of scale to telecommunications 
 projects, helping defray the capital costs of 
 both hardware and software. 
 
 The private sector is not at present 
 motivated to apply telecommunications tech- 
 nology in rural areas. The proposed Telecom- 
 munications Technology Act of 1975 
 (H.R.9281) could greatly facilitate the estab- 
 lishment of an environment conducive to rural 
 telecommunications development. In addi- 
 tion, the FCC should reconsider its regulations 
 insofar as they impact upon rural television 
 delivery alternatives. Fewer regulatory impedi- 
 
 III-2. 
 
 ments would allow rural areas expanded use of 
 technologies that can greatly lower the cost of 
 rural telecommunications systems. 
 
 EDA should coordinate and maximize gov- 
 ernment involvement in telecommunica- 
 tions/rural development. This activity could 
 take the form of increased information ex- 
 change, interagency project efforts, and re- 
 search on the economic impacts of various 
 telecommunications delivery systems. 
 
 Title: Rural Economic Development: A 
 
 Concept Paper 
 
 Authors: J. Chalmers, M. Greenwood, M. 
 
 York 
 
 Organization: Mountain West Research, Inc. 
 
 Date: August 30, 1977 Pp.: 16 NTIS: PB 
 
 275 785 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To describe and analyze the reversal 
 of net migration flows between urban and 
 rural areas. 
 
 Method: Outlines the reasons behind the rapid 
 growth in population and employment in non- 
 metropolitan areas. Described are the barriers 
 to economic development and the proper 
 policy initiatives to deal with these economic 
 development problems. 
 
 Findings: The notion that rural economic de- 
 velopment is a one-dimensional concept as- 
 sociated with agriculture is clearly outmoded. 
 Population dispersal has been brought about 
 by rising urban incomes, changing lifestyles, 
 technological change in transportation and 
 communication, and the high social costs of 
 heavy population concentration. 
 
 19 
 
Targeted governmental intervention in the 
 process of growth and development is required 
 to manage the complexity and diversity of 
 rural problems. Initiatives should be targeted 
 at community development, vocational train- 
 ing and private sector job creation. 
 
 Ill— 3. Title: Policies for Nonmetropolitan Areas 
 Author: Niles Hansen 
 Organization: University of Texas (Austin) 
 Date: November 1978 Pp.: 25 NTIS: PB 
 298 322 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To develop a way of viewing the na- 
 tional and regional spatial dynamics of the 
 United States that takes into account the 
 growth of nonmetropolitan areas. 
 
 Method: The growth of nonmetropolitan 
 areas in employment and population is docu- 
 mented. This growth points to an inadequacy 
 of conventional spatially dynamic models that 
 treat SMSAs, States and other spatial units. 
 Causes of these growth trends are investigated 
 as well as the consequential inadequacy of 
 Federal policies for development. 
 
 Statistical evidence for growth trends in 
 nonmetropolitan areas is provided by the Pop- 
 ulation Studies Group, U.S. Department of 
 Agriculture, as well as data from the Bureau 
 of Labor Statistics and Employment Service. 
 In addition, many independent studies of 
 growth patterns are cited. 
 
 Findings: Streamlining and harmonizing inter- 
 governmental activities could alleviate uneven 
 growth problems by giving States a more 
 positive role in planning. Nonmetropolitan 
 counties have experienced growth in recent 
 years because of expansion of urban areas 
 from SMSAs, recreation, tourism, retirement, 
 and decentralization of manufacturing and 
 services. Despite this growth, many of these 
 areas still have high levels of underemploy- 
 ment and poverty. Because of the mixed 
 nature of nonmetropolitan development, there 
 is frequent overlapping and conflict in Federal 
 programs, as in the conflict between develop- 
 ment advocates and environmentalists. More 
 research into the role of regional science and 
 its potential in solving these problems is 
 needed. 
 
 Ill— 4. Title: Issues in the Economic Development of 
 Nonmetropolitan United States 
 Author: Larry C. Ledebur 
 Organization: Economic Development Ad- 
 ministration (Visiting Scholar) 
 Date: January 1977 Pp.: 28 NTIS: PB 267 
 313 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To explore the issues and goals of 
 regional economic development and the causal 
 forces behind the economic decline of rural 
 areas. 
 
 Method: Delineates the primary factors 
 behind rural decline, namely: technology, 
 shifting patterns of demand, and changes in 
 residential preferences. The incidence and 
 severity of rural poverty are examined by com- 
 paring the incidence of low income in metro- 
 politan and nonmetropolitan areas, by race. 
 Statistics on the percent of occupied housing 
 units in rural areas without complete plumb- 
 ing are presented. Statistics on median family 
 income and median school years completed in 
 metro and nonmetro counties, by race, are 
 also provided. 
 
 The key issues in rural economic develop- 
 ment are outlined. These issues include the 
 role of the market, place prosperity versus 
 people prosperity, equity versus efficiency, 
 and the controversy over whether program ef- 
 forts should be focused on regions of greatest 
 poverty or those with the greatest potential for 
 economic survival. 
 
 Next, the goals of economic development 
 and the need to measure development on a 
 multifaceted scale are discussed. The concept 
 of "balanced growth," important in dis- 
 tinguishing between "growth" and "develop- 
 ment," is also elucidated. 
 
 Findings: By almost any measure, the in- 
 cidence and severity of poverty in rural areas is 
 greater and more chronic than in the early six- 
 ties. At the end of the sixties, 1 1 percent of the 
 housing of rural whites and 55 percent of the 
 housing of rural blacks was substandard. 
 Average family income is lower in rural areas 
 for both whites and blacks. However, the eco- 
 nomy is changing structurally away from the 
 conditions which produced this rural underde- 
 velopment. Urban areas have begun to lose 
 population through out-migration. There also 
 appears to be a redistribution of employment 
 opportunities from urban to rural areas. 
 
 The context of rural economic development 
 appears to be changing. The revival of popula- 
 tion growth in rural areas will force a rethink- 
 ing of both rural and urban economic develop- 
 ment. Current development policies may be 
 designed more for problems as they were, 
 rather than as they are or will be in the future. 
 
 20 
 
1 1 1- 5. Title: The Changing Demographic and 
 Economic Structure of Nonmetropolitan 
 Areas in the 1970's 
 
 Author: Kevin F. McCarthy and Peter A. 
 Morrison 
 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: December 1977 Pp.: 75 NTIS: PB 
 297 540 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To assess recent demographic trends 
 and the economic consequences of such trends 
 in the nonmetropolitan sector in the U.S. To 
 differentiate changing demographic patterns 
 and the influences affecting these patterns in 
 the nonmetropolitan sector. 
 
 Method: A descriptive overview of the non- 
 metropolitan sector's changing demographic 
 trends is highlighted. With the use of county- 
 level data files, crude statistical "barometers" 
 are devised to analyze the impact of specific 
 population growth-inducing activities in the 
 nonmetropolitan sector (for example, recrea- 
 tion, retirement, energy extraction). Non- 
 metropolitan demographic trends in the 1960's 
 are compared with 1970's trends via a multi- 
 variate analysis at the county level. The U.S. 
 Bureau of the Census, the Economic Research 
 Service, the Social Security Continuous Work 
 History Sample, and the Bureau of Economic 
 Analysis are some of the data sources. 
 
 Findings: Three recent trends contribute to in- 
 creased nonmetropolitan population growth: 
 increasing accessibility to the national metro- 
 politan economy, new industrial activity in the 
 nonmetropolitan sector, and a changing 
 American life-style. 
 
 The post- 1970 nonmetropolitan population 
 growth trend differs from the nonmetropoli- 
 tan growth during the 1960's. Some of the 
 most rapid growth in the 1970's occurred in 
 the least urbanized nonmetropolitan counties. 
 
 Retirement and recreation have increased in 
 importance as sources of population growth in 
 the nonmetropolitan sector. Economic factors 
 may no longer provide the dominant impetus 
 to nonmetropolitan growth. 
 
 Ill— 6. Demographic Structure and Implications of 
 Recent Nonmetropolitan Growth: Synthesis 
 of Previous Research 
 Author: Peter A. Morrison 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: September 1976 Pp.: 32 NTIS: PB 
 298 374 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: Reviews the demographic structure 
 of population changes occurring in nonmetro- 
 politan areas and the variations in these 
 changes in different parts of the country. The 
 underlying causes of these changes are ex- 
 amined. 
 
 Method: Migration and the urban-rural dis- 
 tinction are defined. Demographic trends and 
 implications of recent nonmetropolitan 
 growth are highlighted from existing research 
 literature, much of which is not yet in publish- 
 ed form, and current demographic data from 
 the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The paper is a 
 base study for a larger, empirical project. 
 
 Findings: Since the early 1970's, there has 
 been a demographic revival in most nonmetro- 
 politan counties in the United States (and a 
 reduction in population growth in the metro- 
 politan areas). "As in earlier decades, the non- 
 metropolitan sector continues, on balance, to 
 gain less educated and lower status workers 
 and to lose blacks and persons with any col- 
 lege education. Unlike before, the nonmetro- 
 politan sector is now gaining whites and peo- 
 ple from almost all ages." Earlier retirements, 
 greater financial security, more emphasis on 
 recreation, and exploitation of newly valuable 
 energy resources (coal and oil, for example) 
 have contributed to increasing the accessibility 
 of nonmetropolitan areas. 
 
 1 1 1-7. Title: Arkansas Basin Chloride Control 
 Project: A Critical Evaluation of Regional Ef- 
 fects 
 
 Author: Kent W. Olson and Alexander B. 
 Holmes 
 
 Organization: Oklahoma State University 
 Date: December 15, 1978 Pp.: 125 NTIS: 
 PB 297 498 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To assess the regional economic 
 benefits and costs of the Arkansas River Basin 
 Chloride Project, a project designed to 
 alleviate a major saline pollution problem. 
 
 Method: A Corps of Engineers' study gives 
 estimates of national benefits and costs of the 
 chloride-control project. These estimates are 
 used as a starting point for this study and ad- 
 justed to apply to the region. The Corps study 
 covered impacts on recreation and flood con- 
 trol, water quality for agriculture, and eco- 
 nomic effects. Original estimates are devel- 
 oped for the regional impacts of project con- 
 struction expenditures and improved water 
 quality for recreation, water supply and other 
 uses. Individuals and groups residing in west 
 central and northwestern Oklahoma are 
 singled out for detailed study. 
 
 Models of regional income determination 
 were not used nor were original data collected. 
 The study utilizes cost-benefit and regional 
 impact analyses to process data from a variety 
 of secondary sources. 
 
 Findings: The chloride-control project would 
 have a positive economic impact on the 
 region, providing benefits in excess of costs of 
 
 21 
 
$102-$ 107 million (present value, discounted 
 at 10%, maximum 50 years). On this basis, 
 fears by residents that the project would 
 merely exploit regional resources for the 
 benefit of downstream dwellers should be 
 allayed. The study recognizes that all benefits 
 and costs are not economic in nature, that 
 social and environmental effects must be 
 counted. These aspects are not investigated in 
 depth, however. 
 
 Ill— 8. Title: Industrial Invasion of Nonmetropolitan 
 America 
 
 Authors: Gene F. Summers, Sharon Evans, 
 Jon Minkoff, and Frank Clemente 
 Organization: University of Wisconsin 
 (Madison) 
 
 Date: August 31, 1974 Pp.: 312 NTIS: PB 
 254 183 Price Code: A 14 
 
 Purpose: To assess the effectiveness of rural 
 industrial development in stimulating rural de- 
 velopment. 
 
 Method: Draws upon case study documents 
 for research results about the impact of rural 
 industrial development on: a) the population; 
 b) the private sector; c) the public sector; and 
 d) the quality of- life. The 178 case studies 
 came predominantly from the Midwest and 
 South, involving many types and sizes of in- 
 dustrial plants. Using inductive analysis, gen- 
 eralizations are made and evaluated in light of 
 policy goals. 
 
 Findings: Rural industrial development does 
 not seem to solve the rural poverty problem. 
 Most new jobs do not go to local unemployed, 
 under-employed, minorities, and marginally 
 employable persons near or below the poverty 
 line. Only low-skilled, low-wage industries are 
 likely to employ the disadvantaged. Popula- 
 tion growth does occur, however, as industrial 
 development increases. 
 
 When a local subsidy is not offered to the 
 plant and the workers are hired locally, the 
 local government may experience a net in- 
 crease in its fiscal resource base. In a majority 
 of plant locations, however, the host com- 
 munity experiences growth, often increasing 
 related service costs. 
 
 Development policy should encourage low- 
 skilled, low-wage industries to locate in com- 
 munities with a surplus of low-skilled labor. 
 Development training programs to upgrade 
 the skills of the local population should be 
 established and anti-discrimination laws 
 should be enforced. 
 
 1 1 1-9. Title: Urban Growth in the Nonmetropolitan 
 South 
 
 Author: Leonard F. Wheat 
 Organization: Economic Development Ad- 
 ministration 
 Date: 1916 Pp.: Ill 
 
 Published by Lexington Books, D.C. Heath 
 &Co. 
 
 Purpose: To identify and determine the 
 relative importance of factors that discrimi- 
 nate between — and affect the growth of — fast- 
 growing and slow-growing nonmetropolitan 
 cities of 5,000 to 50,000 population. 
 
 Method: Uses cross-sectional correlation- 
 regression analysis and supplementary statisti- 
 cal techniques applied to four samples of 
 cities. The principal sample consists of 116 
 cities above 10,000 in population in thirteen 
 Southern States — each State's fastest one- 
 third and slowest one-third in 1960-70 popula- 
 tion growth rate. A special analysis compares 
 growth rates for geographically stratified 
 groups of cities — 330 cities in all — in five pop- 
 ulation intervals. 
 
 Findings: The findings support 16 of 23 
 hypotheses tested. Among the factors found 
 significantly related to growth, air service 
 looks strongest. Unemployment, prior 
 growth, colleges, highways, property taxes, 
 wages, existing manufacturing, metropolitan 
 area proximity, and racial mix round out a list 
 of the ten most important factors. Some fac- 
 tors are significant only in the Southeast or the 
 Southwest. Most of these one-region situa- 
 tions result from the relatively labor-intensive 
 structure of Southeastern manufacturing, 
 which contrasts with a capital-intensive struc- 
 ture found in the Southwest. Not all of the sig- 
 nificant relationships are causal; some factors, 
 such as prior growth, are good indicators 
 because they reflect others that may not be 
 directly measurable. When incorporated in 
 two city scoring formulas, the sixteen signifi- 
 cant factors correctly classify (as fast or slow) 
 56 of 58 Southern cities and 56 of 58 South- 
 western cities. 
 
 22 
 
IV. Fiscal 
 
 EDA research in this area has concentrated on the 
 fiscal distress currently being experienced in several 
 urban areas. Of particular concern in the literature has 
 been the interaction of Federal and local governments in 
 
 the handling of the fiscal problems of cities. Solutions 
 to the problems vary, but among the Federal actions 
 suggested by researchers are revisions of tax laws, in- 
 frastructure maintenance and capital investments. 
 
 IV- 1. Title: Federal Policy and the Fiscal Outlook 
 for Cities 
 Author: Roy Bahl 
 
 Organization: Metropolitan Studies Program, 
 the Maxwell School, Syracuse University 
 Date: June 15, 1978 Pp.: 36 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To assess the fiscal outlook for cities 
 in light of their experiences in the 1960's, the 
 urban crisis of 1975, and subsequent Federal 
 and local government fiscal responses 
 (through 1978). In addition, a section of the 
 paper establishes principles for appropriate 
 Federal urban policy. 
 
 Method: Traces the causes of the urban fiscal 
 problems of 1975 to the recession-inflation of 
 the late 1960's and early 1970's and the growth 
 in public employment and compensation. He 
 then offers reasons why central cities have per- 
 formed above expectations since 1975: na- 
 tional recovery, direct Federal assistance, and 
 service-level cutbacks. Projections on the 
 future of American cities are provided. 
 
 Data are drawn from County Business Pat- 
 terns and a number of books and papers, in- 
 cluding Roy Bahl, et al, "The Outlook for 
 City Fiscal Performance in Declining 
 Regions," in The Fiscal Outlook for Cities: 
 Implications of a National Urban Policy. 
 
 Findings: Cities in declining regions will be 
 beset by problems, not the least of which is the 
 prospect of reductions in Federal assistance. 
 Four critical issues will influence the outlook 
 for cities: (1) the priority given to targeting, (2) 
 the place for revitalization in the national 
 urban policy, (3) the amount of control placed 
 in local hands, and (4) the financial generosity 
 of the Federal Government. Irrespective of the 
 developing urban policy, however, the fiscal 
 
 outlook for cities will remain tied to national 
 economic performance. 
 
 Federal policy should recognize the need for 
 public-sector retrenchment. Federal policy 
 should compensate for and reinforce existing 
 trends, revitalize central city service sectors, 
 and require States to formulate an urban 
 policy. 
 
 IV-2. Title: The Fiscal Implications of Social 
 Welfare Programs: Can They Help the Cities? 
 Author: Alan Fechter 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: June 8, 1 978 Pp. : 27 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: This seminar paper surveys the ob- 
 jectives, goals, and impacts of the social in- 
 surance and social welfare programs in U.S. 
 cities. It examines the fiscal implications for 
 the cities of existing programs and current 
 welfare-reform proposals. 
 
 Method: In assessing the impacts and objec- 
 tives of the welfare programs, the author dis- 
 tinguishes between social-insurance and 
 public-aid programs. The effectiveness of 
 these programs is assessed in terms of reduc- 
 tions in the size of the poverty population. The 
 four welfare-reform proposals examined are 
 H.R. 9030 (the Carter Administration's Pro- 
 gram for Better Jobs and Income), a revised 
 version of H.R. 9030 (reported out by the 
 Special House Subcommittee on Welfare Re- 
 form), H.R. 10711 (the Ullman bill), and S. 
 2777 (the Baker-Bellmon bill). Much of the 
 relevant data is obtained from the Congres- 
 sional Budget Office, the U.S. Bureau of the 
 Census, and the Rand Corporation. 
 
 23 
 
Findings: The welfare programs have worked 
 reasonably well. For the year 1975, social-in- 
 surance and public-aid benefits reduced the 
 number of families that would have been 
 classified as poor (in the absence of these pro- 
 grams) by 12.4 million, or approximately 
 65%. The benefits were concentrated in single- 
 parent families with children and families with 
 disabled heads. The South did not benefit as 
 much as the non-South. Current welfare- 
 reform proposals, "while providing for valu- 
 able improvements in the form of a more equi- 
 table distribution of benefits and better incen- 
 tives with regard to work behavior and family 
 stability, do not offer much in the way of 
 potential fiscal relief to cities in the form of 
 reduced expenditure burdens for public assist- 
 ance programs. Fiscal relief for cities will have 
 to be generated through other programs." 
 
 IV-3. Title: Fiscal Impacts of Economic Activity 
 Generated by Economic Development Grants: 
 A Discussion of Possible Research Methodol- 
 ogies and a Review of the Literature 
 Author: Kenneth V. Greene 
 Organization: State University of New York at 
 Binghamton 
 
 Date: October 1976 Pp.: 35 NTIS: PB 269 
 910 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To survey the literature relating to 
 the fiscal impact of economic development 
 grants. Also examines alternative research 
 methodologies for assessing fiscal impact. 
 
 Method: The author evaluates and critiques 
 fifty studies dealing with the fiscal impact on 
 various communities of EDA grants. Selected 
 data from these studies are provided. A bibli- 
 ography is included. 
 
 Findings: Previous cost-revenue analyses have 
 only limited relevance to serious analysis of the 
 fiscal effects of EDA projects. Some of the 
 problems of these studies include: failure to 
 put costs and benefits in terms of present 
 values; failure to provide a proper time frame; 
 and the failure to note the economies of scale 
 brought about by new residents. Most studies 
 have also ignored secondary effects. A serious 
 data-acquisition problem exists concerning the 
 public- finance effects of EDA development 
 grants. Several alternative methods are sug- 
 gested for estimating the impact of the grants. 
 
 IV-4. Title: The Federal Response to the Fiscal Crisis 
 in American Cities 
 Author: William Henderson 
 Organization: University of Missouri, Kansas 
 City 
 Date: July 1978 Pp.: 62 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA. 
 
 Purpose: To present an executive summary of 
 the proceedings of a seminar on the Federal 
 role in the fiscal crisis of American cities. The 
 seminar was held in Washington, D.C., on 
 June 15-16, 1978. 
 
 Method: Topics included a recent history of 
 the changing fortunes of the cities, recent re- 
 sponses to the problems of the cities (including 
 countercyclical revenue sharing and public 
 works programs, block grants and public ser- 
 vice programs), and new directions for the 
 Federal role (such as development banking and 
 financial incentives for depressed communi- 
 ties). The seminar was attended by sixty repre- 
 sentatives from the Federal Government, 
 groups representing State and city govern- 
 ments, universities, and private research agen- 
 cies and consulting firms. 
 
 Findings: The proposed creation of a National 
 Development Bank (NDB) is a major feature 
 of the Administration's urban policy but the 
 full effects of the NDB on depressed areas are 
 not known. To protect the viability of such a 
 program, loans are usually not made to high- 
 risk ventures, whereas such ventures could 
 help distressed areas. Loans or grants to at- 
 tract firms to specific sites may merely induce 
 them to move from other areas, and the move 
 may harm the original area. Low-interest loans 
 or grants to encourage site-specific investment 
 may not be sound on efficiency grounds and 
 may create a bias towards capital-intensive 
 production processes. This may work against 
 job creation in the cities that have large 
 numbers of unskilled, unemployed persons. 
 
 An increased reliance on tax credits is ad- 
 vocated both to increase the investment com- 
 ponent of aggregate demand in recessions (a 
 short-run goal), and to increase productivity (a 
 long-run goal). If not specifically targeted, 
 however, tax credits to encourage capital in- 
 vestment may actually accelerate movements 
 from cities to suburbs, further decentralizing 
 economical activity from central cities. 
 
 24 
 
IV-5. Title: The Future of the South's Economy 
 Author: Elliot L. Richardson 
 Organization: U.S. Department of Commerce 
 Date: December 1976 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: 
 All 
 
 Purpose: To discuss (and support) proposed 
 changes in allocation formulas for the distri- 
 bution of Federal funds. 
 
 Method: An historical perspective on regional 
 trends (the South's progress and the North's 
 decline) is provided. The Federal Govern- 
 ment's assistance to the South during Presi- 
 dent Roosevelt's administration is highlighted. 
 The South's own stake in the North's current 
 economic troubles is reviewed. 
 
 This speech was made before the conference 
 on the Future of the South's Economy, spon- 
 sored by the Southern Growth Policies Board. 
 
 Findings: Federal assistance during the 
 Roosevelt administration played an integral 
 part in spurring growth in the South. The 
 South's economic problems at that time were 
 the Nation's problems. 
 
 A reversal in regional economic trends has 
 since taken place. The South is prospering. 
 The North is encountering an economic 
 decline. Today, the North's problems are felt 
 nationwide. Increased Federal assistance to the 
 Northeastern region is, thus, in the interest of 
 the Nation as a whole. 
 
 25 
 
V. Development Planning 
 
 Because planning is so basic to the development proc- 
 ess, it is of immediate interest to development agencies 
 at all levels of government, and the subject has 
 motivated a substantial volume of EDA research. 
 
 Perhaps the most persistently mentioned conclusions 
 of EDA development planning research reports are that: 
 
 (1) there is a need for increased and more broadly-based 
 planning at all levels of government, and (2) there 
 should be increased coordination among planning and 
 development agencies. A third frequently mentioned 
 conclusion is that there is a need for a more active policy 
 of information dissemination in the planning field. 
 
 V- 1 . Title: The Purposes of Balanced Growth 
 Author: William Alonso 
 Organization: Harvard University 
 Date: January 1978 Pp.: 45 7V775: PB 282 
 481 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess issues involved in a policy of 
 balanced national development. These include 
 territorial issues, policy objectives and con- 
 flicts, and important current changes in the 
 population and the economy. 
 
 Method: Present approaches to balanced 
 growth are discussed. Next, the nature and the 
 purposes of balanced growth are defined. The 
 five principal purposes of balanced growth dis- 
 cussed are: prosperity, equity, quality of life, 
 environmental integrity and national security. 
 Finally, the policy process for balanced growth 
 is reviewed. 
 
 Findings: The present practice of formulating 
 growth policies to achieve particular population 
 distributions and growth rates for their own 
 sake is misleading. Statistical descriptions of 
 size, growth or decline may be symptoms of im- 
 portant problems. In devising policies for 
 balanced growth, however, socially desired 
 conditions for real people must be considered, 
 rather than focusing on statistics themselves. 
 
 Balanced growth policy is aimed at reconcil- 
 ing various partially conflicting social purposes 
 and the interests of various groups and cannot 
 be achieved solely by technical information or 
 by political decisions at the national level. The 
 concept of a master plan for achieving balanced 
 growth is fallacious since a complex political 
 process is involved, with territorially defined in- 
 stitutions playing a large role. 
 
 Government actions have an implicit effect 
 on balanced growth and should be reconciled 
 with it. Much research is needed in this area. 
 
 As most balanced growth issues proceed 
 slowly, they are usually postponed or neglected 
 in favor of more urgent issues. But, what looks 
 like a slow process from one level of govern- 
 ment's perspective may be sharply felt in 
 another level. Hence, participation from all 
 levels of government can keep attention fo- 
 cused on issues of balanced growth. 
 
 V-2. Title: State Departments of Community and 
 Economic Development: Frameworks for 
 Coordinating Implementation 
 Authors: W.E. Bivens and Joseph S. Marinich 
 Organization: Council of State Community Af- 
 fairs Agencies (COSCAA) 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 74 NTIS: PB 297 
 602 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To explore the structure, goals and 
 performance of State departments of communi- 
 ty and economic development (DCEDs). 
 
 Method: Eighteen States place community and 
 economic development services in a single ex- 
 ecutive agency. Six of these agencies (Colorado, 
 Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, Oklahoma, and 
 Tennessee) are analytically profiled in this 
 report. These departments (States) were chosen 
 to provide geographic, demographic, and orga- 
 nizational diversity, and a balance between 
 COSCAA member and non-member agencies. 
 
 The study examines each of the State DCEDs 
 in five areas: structure, functions, coordination 
 devices, philosophy, and results, and provides a 
 brief history and summary of recent develop- 
 ments. 
 
 26 
 
The information for the study's preparation 
 was collected from secondary source materials 
 (such as department annual reports), from a 
 mail questionnaire survey, and from both tele- 
 phone and face-to-face interviews with State 
 personnel. 
 
 Findings: Consolidated departments of com- 
 munity and economic development afford an 
 opportunity to institutionalize the coordination 
 of community and economic development 
 functions at the State level. DCEDs can avoid 
 the rigidities of Federal programs (which are 
 structured to administer national programs 
 with national standards), as well as fragmented 
 State programs (which are independent and 
 often self-contained). DCEDs seem to improve 
 responsiveness to local governmental units, the 
 private sector, and community groups, by pro- 
 viding a single organizational structure with an 
 emphasis on coordination. 
 
 V-3. Title: Human Resource and Regional 
 Economic Development 
 Author: Paul V. Braden, ed. 
 Organization: Economic Development Admin- 
 istration 
 Date: October 1 977 Pp. .416 
 
 Available free from Economic Research 
 Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To examine the interface between job- 
 creating economic development policies and 
 skill-increasing human resource development 
 policies. 
 
 Method: There are three major sections within 
 this book. Part one examines the setting within 
 which economic and human resource develop- 
 ment occurs. Part two examines the organiza- 
 tion and implementation of human-resource 
 and regional economic development programs. 
 Part Three is concerned with human resource 
 information systems and the establishment of 
 an interface between information systems and 
 regional economic development policy. 
 
 Most of the articles represent EDA-support- 
 ed or in-house research. Some of the authors 
 and articles are: Larry C. Ledebur, "Regional 
 Economic Development and Human Resource 
 Requirements," Richard E. Winnie, "Outcome 
 Measurement of State Economic Development 
 Programs," and Paul V. Braden, "Human 
 Resource Information Systems for Regional 
 Economic Development." 
 
 Findings: Improved coordination between 
 economic development and human-resource de- 
 velopment policies is necessary to assure em- 
 ployability of new labor force entrants. An 
 increased level of collaboration among key peo- 
 ple, in both public and private sectors, at all 
 
 levels of decision-making, planning, and imple- 
 mentation is required to improve the develop- 
 ment process. This collaboration can result in 
 the recognition of mutual benefits for all. 
 
 V-4. Title: Planning for the Interorganizational 
 Networking of a State Economic Development 
 Council 
 
 Author: Robert E. Collier 
 Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology 
 Date: December 1977 Pp.: 152 NTIS: PB 
 298 352 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: To assess how successful the 
 Economic Development Council of the State of 
 Georgia was in organizing individuals, agen- 
 cies, and organizations to formulate and imple- 
 ment comprehensive economic development 
 programs. 
 
 Method: Provides an overview of the 
 organizational elements of the council and the 
 relationships among member organizations. A 
 data profile was developed for each organiza- 
 tion to gauge its scope, type, and intensity of 
 participation. Communication networks were 
 identified by asking each organizational admin- 
 istrator what organizations he communicates 
 with, together with the frequency of such com- 
 munication. 
 
 Findings: The council members lack a compre- 
 hensive approach to economic development. 
 Member organizations tend to operate in a nar- 
 row range of economic development sectors, 
 and seldom evaluate interorganizational pro- 
 gram impacts on economic growth. 
 
 To be fully effective, the "council mecha- 
 nism" requires that additional interorgani- 
 zational communications research be made 
 available. The author advocates the use of par- 
 ticipatory exchanges to improve the interaction 
 among council member organizations. 
 
 V-5. Title: Capability of Transportation and 
 Distribution Systems To Respond to Regional 
 Growth 
 
 Author: James A. Constantin 
 Organization: University of Oklahoma 
 Date: October 1976 Pp.: 46 NTIS: PB 298 
 129 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To identify the role of the transporta- 
 tion and distribution system in regional eco- 
 nomic growth. Also examines the environmen- 
 tal implications of transportation and dis- 
 tribution. 
 
 Method: The role of transportation and dis- 
 tribution systems in regional economic growth 
 are reviewed in light of four pending changes: 
 (1) capital shortages (2) fuel shortages (3) inter- 
 regional shifts in population, income, and 
 
 27 
 
manufacturing employment; and (4) intra- 
 regional growth (population, industrial, and 
 market for industrial goods growth) of small 
 towns. The systems' ability to adapt to, as well 
 as manage, these changes is discussed. The 
 primary source of information is current peri- 
 odical literature, such as the Transportation 
 Journal and Business Week. 
 
 Findings: The transportation and distribution 
 systems "can be a powerful force in economic 
 development strategy coping with and manag- 
 ing change." The transportation and distribu- 
 tion resources can be strategically adapted to 
 lessen the negative impact of the pending 
 changes. They can effectively stimulate regional 
 economic growth. In addition, these resources 
 can be instrumental in reducing demands on 
 capital and fuel resources via more effective use 
 of transport capacity. All economic develop- 
 ment planning should include consideration of 
 transportation and distribution resources. 
 
 V-6. Title: The Functional Concept of Resources for 
 Economic Development Purposes: A Frame- 
 work for Analysis of Resource Use and 
 Development 
 
 Author: James A. Constantin 
 Organization: The University of Oklahoma 
 Date: October 1975 Pp.: 84 NTIS: PB 259 
 128 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To create a planning framework for 
 resource use and development that integrates 
 A. H. Maslow's hierarchy of human needs and 
 a systems approach to planning. 
 
 Method: The study is organized by the topics of 
 resources, motivation, and planning. The func- 
 tional theory of resources is defined and related 
 to human wants. Attention is given to the eco- 
 nomic, social, political, and technological 
 aspects of resource appraisal (value), with the 
 dynamic rather than static aspects of resources 
 emphasized. 
 
 Maslow's theory of human motivation is 
 then presented. This theory considers the 
 physiological, safety, love, esteem, and self- 
 actualization needs of individuals. The subject 
 of planning and control, including strategic 
 planning, managerial and operational control, 
 and the overlap of these planning elements is 
 also explored. Three continua of public-private 
 investment roles in resource use and develop- 
 ment are considered, including the symbiotic 
 relationship between government and business, 
 the planning period for public investment, and 
 the social vs. private goals of investment. 
 
 Finally, a framework for resource use and 
 development is discussed, emphasizing people- 
 oriented factors in the framework. These fac- 
 tors include cultural considerations and human 
 resistances to change. 
 
 Findings: Integration of the concepts of the 
 functional use of resources, human motivation, 
 and planning, together with views of the roles 
 of the public and private sectors, provides a 
 framework for resource use and development. 
 This framework is useful in developing strategic 
 planning programs (which jointly consider na- 
 tional policy goals, development agency policy 
 goals, resource availability, and human motiva- 
 tion), and the development of methods to 
 achieve managerial and operational control of 
 these programs (evaluation, implementation, 
 and control). 
 
 V-7. Title: The Development of a Subnational 
 Economic Development Policy 
 Author: Economic Development Administra- 
 tion 
 
 Organization: U.S. Department of Commerce 
 Date: September 1977 Pp.: 72 NTIS: PB 
 298 094 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To make a comprehensive subna- 
 tional economic development policy statement 
 for EDA. 
 
 Method: Supplies a conceptual framework for 
 organizing subnational economic development 
 problems, identifies problems requiring public 
 and Federal intervention and reviews existing 
 Federal programs. Components for a coor- 
 dinated, comprehensive Federal policy to 
 achieve balanced and equitable subnational and 
 national economic growth and development are 
 established. EDA's five policy initiatives are 
 described and analyzed. Data sources are the 
 Monthly Labor Review, 1970 Census of 
 Population, and the Brookings Institu- 
 tion/HUD report on the Community Block 
 Grant program. 
 
 Findings: Structural subnational economic dis- 
 location results from differential rates of capi- 
 tal and labor mobility between specific places. 
 Such dislocations prevent the American 
 economy from attaining full employment with- 
 out high inflation. Therefore, subnational eco- 
 nomic development is needed to reduce eco- 
 nomic disparities in employment and other 
 economic indicators between regions. Narrow- 
 ing such disparities is hindered by the inadapt- 
 ability of capital and labor to other uses, the 
 difficulties of some localities in retaining and 
 attracting economic activity, and the time lags 
 involved in capital and labor adjustment. 
 
 To reduce the disparities of the adjustment 
 process requires planned, coordinated use of 
 public resources to attract private investment 
 and create long-term employment. EDA's man- 
 date is the promotion of subnational economic 
 development through five policy initiatives: (1) 
 provision of planning and technical assistance 
 
 28 
 
to State and local government and regional 
 organizations, (2) the targeting of aid to central 
 cities, metropolitan areas, urban neighbor- 
 hoods, rural areas and States, (3) coordinated 
 use of programs such as Title IX with other 
 agency tools such as technical assistance, (4) 
 establishment of countercyclical public works 
 to stimulate construction sectors in creation of 
 public facilities, and (5) the funding of research 
 to improve the state-of-the-art of economic 
 development and the dissemination of such in- 
 formation. 
 
 V-8. Title: Geocoding Data for Display and Policy 
 Analysis: Volume I — The Potential of the 
 ACCESS Process re Energy, Environment and 
 the Economy 
 
 Author: William R. Ewald, Jr. 
 Organization: University of California, Santa 
 Barbara 
 
 Date: 1977 Pp.: 71 NTIS: PB 273 
 031 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To present the ACCESS Project, 
 assess how readily this process could be ex- 
 plained to potential users, and explore how the 
 process might be applied by EDA. 
 
 Method: In this first of two reports, the AC- 
 CESS (Alternate Comprehensive Community 
 Environmental Study System) Project is de- 
 scribed. ACCESS is viewed as a national proto- 
 type study to determine the usefulness to policy 
 makers of providing regional data on energy, 
 the environment and the economy. The proj- 
 ect's chief tool is interactive, graphic display of 
 physical, social and economic data, "geocod- 
 ed" (organized or referenced) to geographical 
 locations. 
 
 A number of field interviews and confer- 
 ences, involving local government officials, 
 university members, and computer persons, 
 were conducted to find out if regional policy- 
 makers understand this process and will find it 
 useful. A national conference of potential users 
 was also organized. 
 
 Findings: Representing data in regional 
 geocoded-form would be understood and ac- 
 cepted by potential users, provided it "really 
 works." But since the ACCESS Project is only 
 in the developmental stage, its usefulness is un- 
 proven. Further, to collect, encode, store, 
 retrieve, combine and display the geocoded 
 data would require that standard conventions 
 be established, so that computers can be used. 
 
 No region was identified that was prepared to 
 be the test site for the national exploration of 
 the ACCESS process. Further, it appears that 
 the national "market" for ACCESS in the next 
 five to ten years would not be more than 100 
 
 multi-state, State, or COG multi-county 
 regions. Because of this small number, mini- 
 computer companies may be more interested in 
 this market than the large firms. Finally, 
 policy-makers do not want more data — they are 
 already suffering from a "data overload" that 
 many perceive will be exacerbated by ACCESS. 
 
 V-9. Title: Geocoding Data for Display and Policy 
 Analysis: Volume II — Technology from the 
 User Perspective 
 Author: William R. Ewald, Jr. 
 Organization: University of California, Santa 
 Barbara 
 
 Date: 1977 Pp.: 163 7V77S: PB 273 
 032 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: To present the proceedings from a 
 conference held in Santa Barbara, California 
 on May 8-10, 1977. The conference was 
 organized to discuss and analyze the ACCESS 
 (Alternate Comprehensive Community En- 
 vironmental Study System) Project, a national 
 prototype study to determine the usefulness of 
 providing "geocoded" (geographically orga- 
 nized or referenced) social, economic and 
 physical data to multi-state, State and multi- 
 county areas. 
 
 Method: Participants in the conference includ- 
 ed representatives from nine Federal agencies, 
 nine universities, seven States and several inno- 
 vators in geocoding and computer develop- 
 ment. The report is an edited version of a tape 
 recording of the conference proceedings. The 
 conference included discussions about practical 
 applications of geocoded data, and about prob- 
 lems which might be encountered in establish- 
 ing and administering the ACCESS Project. 
 
 Findings: Conference participants noted that 
 the project might find practical application in 
 the areas of police work, natural resource in- 
 ventories, monitoring population growth, map- 
 ping State and urban land use, environmental 
 impacts, etc. Nearly all of those present agreed 
 that available technology was not a major con- 
 straint. An obstacle to the program's success 
 was more likely to be getting people to under- 
 stand and accept the concept of data 
 geocoding. 
 
 Conference recommendations regarding the 
 "next steps" to be taken included assembling 
 annotated machine-readable bibliographies of 
 data sources for each region and devising a 
 demonstration of what the project actually can 
 do, based on practical issues of interest within 
 regions. Use of the media (especially television) 
 to promote the Project was also suggested, as 
 was a technical analysis of the structuring of a 
 geocoded information system. 
 
 29 
 
V-10. Title: Regional Economic Development and 
 Federal Legislation 
 A uthor: Stanley I . Friedlander 
 Organization: Economica, Inc. 
 Date: March 1976 Pp.: 53 7V775: PB 256 
 179 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To identify recommendations for im- 
 proving the operation of economic develop- 
 ment districts. The underlying contention is 
 that while these programs aim at similar 
 goals — full employment, balanced regional 
 economic growth — it is necessary to integrate 
 their efforts better, so as to maximize resource 
 use. 
 
 Method: Four major pieces of legislation are 
 reviewed: CETA (1973), the Housing and Com- 
 munity Development Act (1974), the Trade Act 
 (1972), and the Public Works and Employment 
 Act (1976). The purpose, allocation of funds, 
 operation, and short-comings of each act are 
 analyzed. The paper concentrates on the incon- 
 sistencies and inadequacies within, and over- 
 laps and conflicts between, these development 
 programs. 
 
 Findings: A variety of recommendations for 
 improving and creating an integrated man- 
 power and economic development program 
 centered on the regional district are derived. 
 These suggestions are directed at overcoming 
 obstacles in current legislation which impede 
 action and resource usage. Among the recom- 
 mendations are: (1) To establish economic 
 development districts to cover the entire coun- 
 try along geographical boundaries approximat- 
 ing a functional economic area. (2) Use sub- 
 stantial incentives to encourage urban-subur- 
 ban consortia. (3) Establish a State economic 
 development agency to coordinate activities on 
 the district level. (4) The EDA should provide 
 more technical assistance and clearinghouse ac- 
 tivities on successful projects. (5) Economic 
 development districts should submit plans to 
 appropriate community manpower planning 
 and service agencies to avoid duplication or 
 conflict. 
 
 V-ll. Title: Proposed Information Program Concept 
 for the Office of Economic Research (OER). 
 Author: Bernard D. Gross 
 Organization: Bernard D. Gross and Associates 
 Date: July 1977 Pp.; 41 
 
 Available from Economic Research Division, 
 EDA. 
 
 Purpose: To define OER's current information 
 orientation and analyze its existing information 
 techniques so as to recommend an improved in- 
 formation program. 
 
 Method: The study is based primarily on 75 in- 
 terviews with Economic Development Adminis- 
 
 tration officials, Congressional staffers, Office 
 of Management and Budget personnel, State 
 and regional officials, public interest groups, 
 academicians and business leaders. In addition, 
 existing information systems used within EDA 
 are reviewed and analyzed. Information 
 distribution systems such as press releases, the 
 NTIS system, and the Smithsonian Science In- 
 formation Exchange are also analyzed. 
 
 Findings: Much improvement is needed in 
 OER's relationships within EDA and with 
 clientele groups. OER now has only a limited 
 impact on EDA policy formulation and has not 
 defined development problems in a manner that 
 readily translates into policy responses. OER 
 products are poorly distributed within and out- 
 side of EDA. There is considerable dissatisfac- 
 tion with the lack of brief, timely, and well- 
 written executive summaries of OER reports 
 and much support for a stronger OER function 
 both within and outside of the Economic Devel- 
 opment Administration. Three information 
 level program options are presented based upon 
 personnel/ funding limitations of OER. 
 
 V-12. Title: Economic Development Through State 
 Planning 
 
 Author: David K. Hartley 
 Organization: American Institute of Planners 
 Date: August 1976 Pp.: 53 NTIS: PB 259 
 241 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To examine the interaction between 
 State planning and economic development in 
 order to help State planning agencies and State 
 development agencies understand their respec- 
 tive roles in economic development. Analysis is 
 intended to help State governments mobilize 
 resources and staff for improved economic 
 development. 
 
 Method: The project was divided into three 
 elements: (1) a questionnaire sent to all fifty 
 States, (2) interviews in four case-study States, 
 and (3) the issuance of the report which sum- 
 marizes and analyzes the data and results of the 
 case studies. Various private, State, and 
 Federal references were utilized. 
 
 Findings: Most States do not use a consistent 
 definition of economic development. Focus is 
 placed on current development activities (e.g., 
 increasing the volume of new manufacturing in- 
 vestment) rather than on attempting to shore up 
 weak points in a State's economy. While the ex- 
 ecutive budget is the most powerful instrument 
 of coordination, it is used only indirectly to im- 
 plement the policy imperatives of economic 
 development. Few States are monitoring 
 Federal economic development assistance to en- 
 sure project money is distributed in accordance 
 with overall development policy. 
 
 30 
 
V-13. Title: The Umbrella Planning Commission: A 
 Model for Integrating Local Development 
 Planning and Decision-Making 
 Author: Quinn Hudson 
 
 Organization: Georgia Planning Association, 
 Inc. 
 
 Date: August 1978 Pp.: 63 NTIS: PB 297 
 478 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To present a planning model for use 
 by local governments in co-ordinating the 
 economic, social and physical development ob- 
 jectives of the community. Also, the means to 
 effectively integrate and coordinate the plan- 
 ning, development, and decision-making activi- 
 ties of the local government with other local 
 agencies and organizations are examined. 
 
 Method: The planning model was developed 
 after reviewing the planning literature and tak- 
 ing an inventory of local agency structures and 
 activities in Georgia. It identifies proper link- 
 ages between the planning commission and 
 approximately 40 agencies and organizations. 
 Also identifies review and monitoring functions 
 required for an effective decision-making 
 process. 
 
 The strengths and weaknesses of current 
 local planning efforts are analyzed. Recom- 
 mendations for improving and integrating these 
 efforts are made after examining the legal and 
 fiscal capability of each agency. Personal inter- 
 views were conducted in Cherokee County, 
 Georgia, with representatives of local govern- 
 ments, special authorities, business and citizen 
 organizations, and public utilities authorities in 
 order to test the model and lay the groundwork 
 for its future implementation. 
 
 Findings: Full implementation of the model is 
 recommended. Also recommended is a study of 
 the courts and their involvement in local plan- 
 ning and zoning matters. A survey of economic 
 development organizations in Georgia to assess 
 how the coordination of economic development 
 can be improved is urged, as is a study of the ef- 
 fectiveness of the EDA assistance programs. 
 
 V-14. Title: Evaluating Economic Development 
 Programs: A Methodology Handbook 
 Author: Raymond Milkman 
 Organization: Lazar Management Group, Inc. 
 Date: July 1978 Pp.: 214 NTIS: PB 297 
 725 Price Code: A10 
 
 Purpose: To develop a handbook for use at the 
 local level in evaluating a variety of economic 
 development programs in systematic, com- 
 parable ways. 
 
 Method: The overall goals of evaluation, as 
 well as the ways that evaluation studies can be 
 conducted are described. The concept of an 
 
 evaluation "module" can be used to assess the 
 impact of particular economic development ac- 
 tivities. The nature of evaluation and its role in 
 economic development are also discussed. 
 
 A sample of approximately 500 economic 
 development organizations were surveyed to 
 determine the nature of their program activities 
 and their evaluation needs and interests. These 
 organizations include State, multi-county, 
 county and city as well as privately funded 
 economic development groups. 
 
 Findings: The six modules developed are: job 
 location impacts; service impact of infrastruc- 
 ture investments; the economic development 
 process; economic development plans; the eco- 
 nomic profile of an area; and special economic 
 dislocations. Outlined for each of these 
 modules is the problem addressed, the condi- 
 tion under which it should be used, and the 
 general approach and procedure for implemen- 
 tation. Examples are also provided. 
 
 V-15. Title: Evaluation of State Planning 
 Author: Lynn Muchmore 
 Organization: Council of State Planning Agen- 
 cies 
 
 Date: 1977 Pp.: 21 NTIS: PB 279 227 
 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: The report identifies major elements 
 of the State planning process and provides 
 practical suggestions for improving them. It is 
 intended for State planning directors who wish 
 to evaluate their own agencies. 
 
 Method: The report consists of thirteen 
 separate modules, each concerned with differ- 
 ent aspects in State planning (for example, 
 planning/budgeting, legislative relations). Each 
 module contains introductory comments and a 
 "checklist" of the characteristics and activities 
 typical of State planning offices. The study 
 highlights activities that are most effective in 
 specific areas of planning. 
 
 Findings: The paper is largely descriptive. The 
 author stresses the need to increase coordina- 
 tion on several levels, namely within the State 
 planning mechanism, and between the Federal 
 Government and the State, as well as with the 
 local government. 
 
 V-16. Title: A Multiregional Input-Output Model for 
 the United States 
 Author: Karen R. Polenske 
 Organization: Harvard Economic Research 
 Project 
 
 Date: December 1970 Pp.: 251 NTIS: 
 COM-7 1 -00943 Price Code: A 1 
 
 Purpose: To describe a multiregional input- 
 output model for the United States that can be 
 
 31 
 
used in assessing the regional impact of a wide 
 variety of government policies. 
 
 Method: The model includes 44 regions and 78 
 industries, providing for both industrial and 
 regional detail. Five sets of multiregional input- 
 output data have been compiled for each state: 
 base year (1963) outputs, employment, and 
 payrolls; 1963 interindustry flows; 1963 inter- 
 regional trade flows; base year (1963) final 
 demands; and 1970 and 1980 projected final 
 demands. Supplemental, final demand esti- 
 mates have also been made for 1947 and 1958. 
 Using interregional trade data and projected 
 final demands, the model projects 1970 and 
 1980 regional outputs and shipments of com- 
 modities among regions. The data used in the 
 model are either from government sources 
 (Census, Commerce, Defense, Interior, Labor) 
 or Jack Faucett Associates. 
 
 Findings: The preliminary nature of this model- 
 ing effort made forecasting premature. 
 
 V-17. Title: State Economic Modeling: Techniques of 
 State Planning 
 
 Author: Robert W. Rafuse, Jr. 
 Organization: Council of State Planning Agen- 
 cies 
 
 Date: 1977 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 279 236 
 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess the potential for increased 
 use of economic models in State planning, 
 questions of cost, purpose, and potential bene- 
 fit are addressed. 
 
 Method: Discusses the success of six specific 
 models or approaches to modeling in actual ap- 
 plications to State problems. The six are: 
 
 1 . The approach of Data Resources, Inc.; 
 
 2. The approach of Chase Econometric 
 Associates, Inc.; 
 
 3 . The Arizona Trade-Off Model; 
 
 4. The Utah Process; 
 
 5. The National Planning Association's 
 Regional Economic Projections; 
 
 6. MUNIES (Municipal Impact Evaluation 
 Systems). 
 
 These selected models are held to exemplify the 
 major economic modeling approaches available 
 for State planning. The essential characteristics 
 and operation of each model are examined with 
 emphasis on the types of policy decisions to 
 which the model is designed to respond, the 
 data that are required, the major costs in- 
 volved, and time required to develop the model 
 and operate it. The study is based on the 
 author's "informal survey" of representative 
 models. 
 
 Findings: Economic modeling at the State level 
 is rapidly maturing and making important con- 
 tributions to State policy-making. However, a 
 more structured system of communication be- 
 tween model builders and users in various areas 
 is needed. In addition, the development and 
 operation of a reliable State economic model is 
 an expensive endeavor, requiring an initial in- 
 vestment of at least $100,000 and a continuing 
 operating budget in excess of $50,000 per year. 
 Measures to insure personnel continuity must 
 receive top priority; personnel turnover serious- 
 ly hampers modeling efforts. Finally, experi- 
 ence has shown that starting small and building 
 incrementally is probably the optimal strategy. 
 
 V- 1 8 . Title: Composite Mapping System 
 
 Authors: Gary G. Slack, Jay T. Carrigan, John 
 B. Fieser 
 
 Organization: TERCON and Economic Devel- 
 opment Administration 
 Date: 1975 
 
 A limited number of free copies are available 
 from Economic Research Division, EDA. 
 
 Purpose: To develop a computer program 
 capable of mapping spatial patterns of various 
 phenomena to user specifications and of merg- 
 ing such maps into composite maps. 
 
 Method: The EDA Composite Mapping System 
 (CMS) has been enhanced by implementing the 
 following features: (1) scale-reduction capabili- 
 ty; (2) map generation from point data; (3) map 
 generation from linear data; (4) masking of ex- 
 ternal data; (5) subset map files; (6) program 
 documentation of the foregoing features. A 
 subsequent contract with the Federation of 
 Rocky Mountain States yielded a machine- 
 independent program (CMS-II) and additional 
 features. 
 
 Findings: The CMS has been used repeatedly in 
 socio-analysis and physical planning, by over 
 50 active users. The CMS-II is "particularly 
 suited to regional, state, and metropolitan land 
 use and socio-economic planning. It is efficient 
 in agricultural, hydrologic, mineral, and 
 ecological analysis, or wherever necessary to 
 collate many forms of maps, taped data, and 
 tabular data. Practically any area information, 
 physical or socio-economic, can be fed into the 
 system directly or through an intermediate 
 step." 
 
 32 
 
V-19. Title: Discussion of Relevance of BEA Areas to 
 the Economic Development Administration 
 Author: Carl F. Snead 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: February 1976 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 256 
 676 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: A BEA (Bureau of Economic 
 Analysis) Economic Area is a relatively new 
 concept. This study analyzes in detail the bene- 
 fits and limitations of utilizing BEA Areas in 
 lieu of the traditional categorizations (SMSA's, 
 political or administrative entities), especially 
 with respect to their potential impact on EDA 
 programs and studies. The study includes an 
 assessment of the uses of BEA Areas assuming 
 EDA did not change designation criteria. 
 
 Method: After a thorough discussion of the 
 elements and definitional components of a 
 BEA Area, focus is shifted to how BEA Areas 
 could be applicable to the EDA. Economic 
 models are then utilized to illustrate how BEA 
 areas can be used in the study of short- and 
 long-term economic growth, growth in per 
 capita income, and the export base of BEA 
 Areas. The results of a number of private 
 studies using BEA Area data are considered. 
 
 Findings: Since BEA Areas are defined on the 
 basis of economic relationships, they represent 
 a clear conceptual improvement in data collec- 
 tion, analysis, and policy formulation. The 
 study predicts BEA Areas will gain wider accep- 
 tance as their merits gain wider recognition. 
 
 V-20. Title: An Examination of the Use of Labor 
 Force Data in Targeted Subnational Economic 
 Development Policy 
 Author: David W. Stevens 
 Organization: National Commission on 
 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 
 Date: February 1979 Pp.: 64 NTIS: PB 297 
 817 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To examine and assess the uses and 
 appropriateness of labor force data in fulfilling 
 EDA's mission. Measures to improve the man- 
 agement of targeted subnational economic 
 development programs also are evaluated. 
 
 Method: EDA's use of labor force data to 
 allocate EDA resources is related to its mission 
 as defined in several laws: The Public Works 
 and Economic Development Act of 1965, The 
 Public Works Employment Act of 1977, The 
 Housing and Community Development Act of 
 1974, Differential Investment Tax Credit and 
 Industrial Revenue Bond Programs, and the 
 Comprehensive Employment and Training Act 
 (CETA) Amendments of 1978. 
 
 There are six technical problems areas en- 
 countered in analyzing allocation formulas; 
 equity; structural aspects of the formula; 
 
 nature of the data; program objectives; 
 presence of constraints; and specification prob- 
 lems. All these problems are discussed. The 
 labor force concepts in EDA's mandate are 
 brought together with the technical aspects of 
 allocation criteria design to determine how well 
 the labor force components of EDA's allocative 
 formulas capture the circumstances they are in- 
 tended to address. Available data sources are 
 also explored. 
 
 Findings: Current unemployment estimates are 
 conceptually weak as a measure of hardship 
 and are therefore inappropriate for EDA pur- 
 poses. However, targeted subnational eco- 
 nomic development has satisfied the minimum 
 level of performance necessary for its continua- 
 tion. Recommendations for improving the per- 
 formance of targeted subnational economic 
 development include: flexible formulas that 
 avoid all-or-nothing determination of eligibility 
 for an area; development of a composite index 
 of under-utilized human potential for sub-state 
 areas; increased effort to the determination of 
 spatial employment opportunity; linkages be- 
 tween household and establishment data; and 
 exploiting the analytical potential of existing 
 data. 
 
 V-21. Title: Labor Market Considerations in 
 Economic Development Planning 
 Author: David W. Stevens 
 Organization: Joint Center for Urban Studies, 
 MIT-Harvard University 
 Date: September 1976 Pp.: 35 NTIS: PB 
 258 383 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess the relevance of labor 
 market concepts and phenomena for economic 
 development activities. 
 
 Method: Examples of different means of 
 measuring or defining labor market concepts 
 are highlighted. Two examples elaborated upon 
 in the study are: 1) the concept of unemploy- 
 ment with its multiple definitions — structural, 
 cyclical, seasonal, and frictional; and 2) alter- 
 native theories (human capital approach, sig- 
 naling approach, and job competition model) 
 of the mechanisms and institutions through 
 which labor productivity is developed and ap- 
 plied. 
 
 Findings: Theory merits consideration and 
 value. It "informs what we see, how observed 
 phenomena and relationships are explained, 
 and what action, if any, is proposed to alter ex- 
 isting circumstances." 
 
 Different approaches (theories) to measuring 
 and classifying labor market concepts and 
 phenomena result in different policy prescrip- 
 tions (different intervention strategies). The 
 choice of approach involves subjective judge- 
 ment. 
 
 33 
 
V-22. Title: IDIOM II: A User's Manual 
 Author: Daniel Updegrove 
 Organization: Institute for Demographic and 
 Economic Studies 
 
 Date: March 1977 Pp.: 102 NTIS: PB 272 
 876 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: This manual provides documentation 
 on the theory, use, operation, and interpreta- 
 tion of IDIOM II, the Income Determination 
 Input-Output Model. IDIOM II is an interac- 
 tive, inter-industry, national-regional policy 
 evaluation model, developed by the Institute 
 for Demographic and Economic Studies and 
 the National Bureau of Economic Research. 
 
 Method: The manual contains five sections 
 and numerous tables and technical appendices. 
 The first section describes the basic model, a 
 Leontief-type model with fixed input-output 
 coefficients, and shows how the basic model 
 can be extended for policy evaluations. It also 
 describes the model's use for regional studies. 
 
 The second section provides implementation 
 information including descriptions of the 
 model's current operating system, the computer 
 code, and associated data files. 
 
 The third section describes the four types of 
 results that the model provides: 1) base case na- 
 tional solutions; 2) national policy substitution 
 solutions; 3) base case regional solutions; and 
 4) regional policy substitution solutions. 
 
 The fourth section tells how to use IDIOM 
 II, describing the operating procedures, control 
 variables, and special input data requirements. 
 
 The final section presents examples of the 
 model's operation. 
 
 Findings: N/A 
 
 Title: Using Locally Planned Investment 
 Strategies for Strategic Targetting of EDA In- 
 vestment Funds 
 Author: Mark B. Urben 
 Organization: N/A 
 Date: November 1 977 Pp. : 30 
 
 Copies available from Economic Research 
 Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To assemble and demonstrate the 
 operation of a management tool for EDA plan- 
 ners to use in the Special Incentives Program 
 for assisting distressed areas in the development 
 of economic investment strategies. 
 
 Method: A conceptual framework for an in- 
 vestment strategy is first developed. This 
 framework includes an institutionalized devel- 
 opment process and a documented investment 
 plan, both of which establish programs de- 
 signed to attract private sector funds and co- 
 ordinate public sector resources. The process 
 included identifying functional objectives, 
 structural locations, compositions of par- 
 ticipants, formal and informal linkages, 
 
 V-23. 
 
 resource availabilities, and institutional effec- 
 tiveness. The investment plan describes 
 policies, program strategies and implementa- 
 tion processes over a number of years. 
 
 Factors which should be considered in assess- 
 ing locally-planned investment strategies are 
 listed. These include economic distress, the 
 presence of institutional capacity to plan, pro- 
 gram, and implement, and a documented in- 
 vestment strategy. 
 
 Forty-six cities are identified for possible par- 
 ticipation in the EDA Special Incentives Pro- 
 gram. These cities are selected on the basis of 
 their planning, and implementation capabili- 
 ties, not for their degree of economic distress. 
 Finally, the respective roles of regional and na- 
 tional agencies are described, with the need for 
 communication between the two stressed. 
 
 Findings: Eighteen cities are "ready now" for 
 assistance. This "management tool" offers 
 EDA a common framework for applying a 
 fund-allocation criteria to central city projects. 
 Specifically, the tool provides ways for EDA to 
 "customize" assistance to cities that are at 
 various stages in the development process. This 
 approach will reduce risk in allocating funds by 
 identifying strategies with the best prospects for 
 success. It also permits EDA to respond to local 
 investments in a multi-year fashion, and to pro- 
 mote an evolutionary and balanced approach to 
 economic development. 
 
 V-24. Title: A Fourth Stage in National 
 Development? An Assessment of Research 
 Issues Relevant to Economic Development 
 Author: Ralph Widner 
 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 Problems 
 
 Date: August 1978 Pp.: 181 NTIS: PB 297 
 974 Price Code: A09 
 
 Purpose: To identify economic development 
 and adjustment problems of the Nation, its 
 regions and communities, as well as their impli- 
 cations for Federal development policies. Also 
 inventories research questions that need to be 
 answered and assesses the appropriateness of 
 the research plans of the Office of Economic 
 Research. 
 
 Method: Examines three areas of structural 
 change. First are economic shifts, including the 
 decline in the manufacturing share of employ- 
 ment growth and the increasing importance of 
 energy and other resource constraints. Second 
 are demographic shifts, including declines in 
 the population growth rate, shifting migration 
 patterns, black migration, and shifting com- 
 munity growth patterns. Third are regional 
 shifts, involving metropolitan diffusion and na- 
 tional dispersal of population and employment. 
 
 34 
 
V-25. 
 
 Based on their survey of development issues, 
 the authors compile a taxonomy of research 
 questions. Research needs are divided into four 
 categories: economic research, policy research, 
 program research, and basic research and 
 theoretical development. Each category is 
 related to proposed or completed state, local or 
 EDA research programs, or to opportunities 
 for future research. 
 
 Data are taken from the U.S. Departments of 
 Labor, and Housing and Urban Development, 
 the Bureau of the Census, and numerous other 
 sources. 
 
 Findings: The U.S. is in a fourth stage in the 
 development process, the so-called "post- 
 industrial era," which is characterized by a 
 decentralized and diffused pattern of settlement 
 and distribution of economic activity. 
 Economic research programs and policy pro- 
 posals should anticipate the geographic conse- 
 quences of structural changes. New strategies 
 will need to recognize the increasing scarcity of 
 energy and other resources. Programs will need 
 to recognize population shifts and existing 
 regional delineations (e.g., BEA regions may 
 have to be modified to more accurately reflect 
 new patterns of activity). Policies will need to 
 place an increased emphasis on the hard-core 
 unemployment caused by the effects of struc- 
 tural and demographic changes on central 
 cities. 
 
 The present and proposed research spon- 
 sored by the Office of Economic Research 
 covers 80 percent or more of the research ques- 
 tions independently identified. The OER pro- 
 gram is found to be exceptionally strong in 
 research on regional and energy-related issues, 
 and State economic development capacity and 
 needs. Its program is judged to be weakest in its 
 coverage of manpower, labor force and sectoral 
 problems involved in community, State, and 
 regional adjustments. 
 
 Title: Multistate Regional Development Issues 
 
 Author: Ralph R. Widner 
 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 
 Problems 
 
 Date: 1978 Pp.: 34 NTIS: PB 298 
 
 163 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To provide an overview of major sub- 
 national development issues of concern to 
 public and private leaders in each of the major 
 Census Regions. 
 
 Method: Surveys of government, business, 
 labor, civic, and academic leaders of each 
 region were used to identify both interstate 
 regional issues and shared regional issues. In- 
 terstate regional issues are defined as issues that 
 transcend State boundaries and require coop- 
 erative action. Shared regional issues are issues 
 
 that may exist locally in each State of a region 
 and do not necessarily require interstate 
 cooperation. A general framework of concerns 
 is provided that might serve as the basis for 
 determining future policies with respect to 
 Federal support for, and participation in, 
 multistate development organizations. 
 
 Findings: A need does exist for 
 Federal/multistate forums. The categories of 
 interstate interests that persist from region to 
 region (although with some variation) are: (1) 
 energy development; (2) transportation; (3) 
 water resource development; (4) other natural 
 resource development (fisheries, mining, etc.); 
 and (5) rural poverty concentration. 
 
 The categories of shared regional problems 
 include: (1) urban economic distress; (2) unem- 
 ployment concentration; (3) underdevelopment 
 in isolated rural areas; (4) infrastructure needs 
 (new and renovated); and (5) growth manage- 
 ment. 
 
 V-26. Title: Intergovernmental Cooperation and 
 Subnational Development Problems; A Syn- 
 thesis of Relevant Research Findings 
 Authors: Ralph R. Widner and Marnie Shaul 
 Organization: Academy for Contemporary 
 Problems 
 
 Date: 1976 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 297 
 979 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To summarize research findings 
 related to "the need for and the functioning of 
 multistate development organizations involving 
 Federal support and participation." 
 
 Method: Reviews findings from independent 
 researchers as well as from studies commis- 
 sioned by government agencies. Discusses the 
 controversy over the proper approach to 
 regionalism, i.e., national resource-based vs. 
 urban-centered. Also, explores the problems 
 and successes associated with sub-state and 
 multistate planning, in particular, the Ap- 
 palachian Regional Commission, the Tennessee 
 Valley Authority and Title V Commissions. 
 
 Findings: Flexible, multi-purpose bodies are 
 needed to encompass problem areas with con- 
 flicting objectives. Regional bodies also need 
 grass roots support. The ineffectiveness of 
 regional bodies stems, in part, from their in- 
 ability to influence decisions by State and 
 Federal agencies. Accordingly, future legisla- 
 tion should mandate explicit links. The effec- 
 tiveness of regional bodies would also be im- 
 proved if the planning, decision-making, and 
 implementation responsibilities could be com- 
 bined in a way that links plans to results. 
 
 35 
 
V-27. 
 
 V-28. 
 
 Title: Conflicts in Federal Subnational 
 
 Development Programs — An Analysis with 
 
 Recommendations 
 
 Author: Harold F. Wise 
 
 Organization: The National Public Advisory 
 
 Committee on Regional Development 
 
 Date: March 1976 Pp.: 165 NTIS: PB 256 
 
 266 Price Code: A09 
 
 Purpose: Describes and analyzes policy con- 
 flicts among Federal programs that affect 
 economic development activities in subnational 
 regions. 
 
 Method: Nineteen representative, Federal sub- 
 national development programs are analyzed to 
 help identify areas of conflict among Federal 
 programs. A conceptual approach is employed 
 which highlights the major findings and con- 
 cepts intended for in-depth follow-up studies. 
 The 1975 Catalog of Federal Domestic Assis- 
 tance and interviews with governmental person- 
 nel in relevant agencies such as the Office of 
 Management and Budget, the Advisory Com- 
 mission on Intergovernmental Relations, and 
 the Office of Urban Program Coordination, 
 HUD, are the primary sources of information. 
 
 Findings: Federal development programs and 
 agencies vary widely (and consequently often 
 conflict) in numerous areas (for example, in 
 patterns of program administration, in plan- 
 ning requirements). The committee structure of 
 Congress based on single-purpose, func- 
 tionally-oriented interests is largely the cause of 
 these confusing differences. Congressional ac- 
 tion is needed to establish "formal machinery" 
 in Congress for the development and evaluation 
 of policy related to coordinating subnational 
 economic development programs. (An Inter- 
 governmental and Interagency Cooperation 
 Act is one of several recommendations.) 
 
 Title: Summary of Conclusions and 
 Recommendations by Ad Hoc Review Panel 
 Members Regarding OMB's Preliminary Work- 
 ing Papers: "Review of Federal Planning Re- 
 quirements" 
 Author: Harold F. Wise 
 
 Date: November 1977 Pp.: 83 NTIS: PB 
 298 128 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To discuss and review OMB's 
 "Review of Federal Planning Requirements: 
 Preliminary Working Papers." 
 
 Method: Two days of panel discussions and 
 working papers sponsored by the National 
 Science Foundation are the core of this report. 
 It contains brief position papers developed by 
 panel members on various subjects concerned 
 with Federal planning requirements. 
 
 Findings: The Office of Management and 
 Budget report is a comprehensive and construc- 
 tive contribution to an extremely complex area 
 of public policy. Implementation of the report 
 could result in significant improvement in plan- 
 ning at all levels of government. 
 
 V-29. Title: Making Local Economic Development 
 Decisions: A Framework for Local Officials 
 Author: Harold Wolman 
 Organization: The Urban Institute 
 Date: January 1979 Pp.: 73 7V77S: 297 
 401 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To set forth a framework that will aid 
 local officials in formulating economic policy. 
 Also, to provide local officials with a "state-of- 
 the-art" review of the literature in policy- 
 related areas. 
 
 Method: Five sets of questions local officials 
 should consider in the design of local economic 
 policy are presented. These questions cover 
 policy choices, information and analysis, pro- 
 gram evaluation, implementation and institu- 
 tional concerns, and resource and other con- 
 straints. Among the policy-choice questions 
 facing the local official, the most basic are: 
 What are the most important problems facing 
 the local economy and which long-run goals, 
 short-term objectives, strategies, programs, 
 and projects should the community choose? 
 
 Information and analyses necessary to sup- 
 port and inform decisions represent the kind of 
 basic information and analyses which provide 
 the factual framework for making local 
 economic policy choices. Program evaluation 
 questions represent the traditional ones of 
 policy analysis. Resource and other constraints 
 include questions dealing with resource, 
 political, economic, social and demographic 
 constraints under which decisions must be 
 made. Finally, the last set of questions concern 
 the adequacy of the administrative organization 
 for local economic policy and the nature of the 
 institutional framework and business climate 
 within which local economic activity occurs. 
 
 The social science literature on three impor- 
 tant policy-related areas is reviewed. These 
 areas include the determinants of a communi- 
 ty's competitive advantage, the sources of 
 employment change (e.g., firm in- or out- 
 migration, firm birth or death, expansion or 
 contraction of existing firms), and the fiscal 
 consequences of changes in the local economic 
 base. 
 
 Findings: This is the first phase of a two-phase 
 study. 
 
 36 
 
V-30. Title: State Planning Series 
 
 Organization: Council of State Planning Agen- 
 cies 
 
 Date: 1977 NTIS: As listed below with each 
 title. Price Code: Listed below. 
 
 Purpose: To discuss and assess various aspects 
 of state planning. 
 
 Findings: Findings vary with each of the 16 
 reports in this series. The reports and their 
 NTIS ordering information are: 
 
 1 . History of State Planning — A n Interpretive 
 Commentary, NTIS: PB 279 225, Price 
 Code: A04. 
 
 2. Concepts of State Planning, PB 279 226, 
 A02. 
 
 3. Evaluation of State Planning, PB 279 227, 
 A03. 
 
 4. The Legal Basis for State Policy Planning, 
 PB279 228,A03. 
 
 5. State Urban Development Strategies, PB 
 272 767.A03. 
 
 6. State Development Strategies for Rural 
 Communities, PB 279 229, A03. 
 
 7. State Intergovernmental Planning 
 Strategies, PB 279 230, A03. 
 
 8. State Strategies for Multistate 
 Organizations, PB 279 23 1 , A04. 
 
 9. State Strategies for National Economic 
 Po//cy, PB 279 232, A03. 
 
 10. Statewide Policy Instruments, PB 279 233, 
 A03. 
 
 1 1 . Techniques of Public Involvement, PB 279 
 234, A03. 
 
 12. Financial Planning for State Government, 
 PB279 235.A04. 
 
 13. State Economic Modeling, PB 279 236, 
 A03. 
 
 14. Intergovernmental Data Issues, PB 279 
 237, A03. 
 
 15. State Economic Resource Planning: Four 
 State Examples, PB 279 238, A04. 
 
 16. State Planning in Action: Proceedings of 
 CSPA Regional Meetings, Fall 1976, PB 
 279 239, A06. 
 
 37 
 
VI. Business Development 
 
 The focus of much of EDA's research in the area of 
 business development has been business and industrial 
 firm location. That is, why do firms locate where they 
 do, and what sorts of public sector actions would induce 
 these firms to locate in economically distressed areas? 
 
 Several studies discuss the problems distressed areas 
 have in attracting business, and the public sector actions 
 advocated in several papers include improved access to 
 capital markets and to technical assistance. 
 
 VI- 1. Title: Mobilizing Capital for Economic 
 Development: Institutional Innovation and the 
 New Urban Policy 
 Author: Peter J. Bearse, editor 
 Organization: Woodrow Wilson School, 
 Princeton University 
 
 Date: August 1978 Pp.: 390 NTIS: PB 294 
 399 Price Code: Ml 
 
 Purpose: This volume presents papers and 
 proceedings from a conference held in Prince- 
 ton, New Jersey, in April 1978. The con- 
 ference was organized to explore the govern- 
 ment's role in mobilizing capital for economic 
 development. 
 
 Method: In this edited version, the conference 
 papers and proceedings are focused on the role 
 of capital in the economic problems of the 
 Northeast, sources of capital and innovative 
 uses, the interaction of urban and social policy 
 concerns with capital mobilization objectives, 
 and a public investment banking facility. 
 
 Included are analyses of statutory and regu- 
 latory constraints on several sources of capital. 
 Examples of several institutional innovations 
 designed by States to foster the commercial ex- 
 ploitation of new technologies are cited. Also 
 included is a study which indicates that invest- 
 ment problems are not limited to urban in- 
 dustrial areas. 
 
 The capital and urban social policy papers 
 cover community and employee ownership 
 and control, manpower and training programs 
 (CETA), and disinvestment caused by red- 
 lining. 
 
 Conference participants represented the 
 Woodrow Wilson School, the Federal Govern- 
 ment, the White House and business. 
 
 VI-2. 
 
 Findings: Capital is only one factor among 
 many which needs urgent attention. In dis- 
 tressed inner city areas, capital cost and 
 availability are often less significant than lack 
 of entrepreneurship (investment management) 
 and expertise. A simple dichotomy between 
 public and private sector ventures no longer 
 fits reality. Many of today's organizational 
 schemes fall somewhere in between the two, in 
 that they are exposed to risk but pursue public 
 development objectives. Local units are often 
 able to make the best decisions involving the 
 trade-off between needs and efficiency of in- 
 vestment alternatives. Finally, the conference 
 reached a consensus on desirable features for 
 the design of a national development bank: 
 flexibility, decentralization, specialization, 
 private participation balanced by public ac- 
 countability, and separation of the functions 
 of development and finance. 
 
 Title: Establishing a National Development 
 
 Bank 
 
 Author: Ben Chinitz and Chuck Fairchild 
 
 Organization: Abt Associates 
 
 Date: 1975 Pp.: 58 
 
 Copies available from Economic Research 
 Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To investigate the issues surrounding 
 the concept and establishment of a National 
 Development Bank. 
 
 Method: After evaluating the operation of 
 capital markets and the method in which 
 capital shortages result, the authors consider 
 the possibility of solving current development 
 financing problems within the existing institu- 
 tional structure. Experiences with develop- 
 ment banks, both foreign and domestic, are 
 
 38 
 
then considered. An appendix containing 
 various development bank proposals submit- 
 ted to the United States Congress is included. 
 
 Findings: It would be socially desirable to 
 create a National Development Bank. 
 "Crowding out" by private organizations does 
 exist in capital markets. This adversely affects 
 the level of socially-desired capital formation. 
 A National Development Bank is defined as a 
 new semi-public lending institution (financed 
 from both public and private sources and lend- 
 ing to both private and public borrowers) that 
 would specialize in the financing of large-scale 
 complex projects which are developmental in 
 nature. These projects in particular have a dif- 
 ficult time in establishing sufficient capital on 
 appropriate terms. Further, the study recom- 
 mends the Bank not be empowered to initiate 
 and coordinate regional and interregional de- 
 velopment planning. The initiative would re- 
 main with private and public developers to 
 conceive and implement projects and the Bank 
 act as disciplinary force on the borrowers. 
 
 VI-3. Title: Industrial Location Determinants, 
 1971-1975 
 
 Author: Economic Development Administra- 
 tion 
 
 Organization: U.S. Department of Commerce 
 Date: February 1973 Pp.: 480 NTIS: 
 COM-73-9001 6 Price Code: A2 1 
 
 Purpose: Identifies various community and 
 plant site characteristics that influence firm 
 decisions to move or expand. It was compiled 
 to assist EDA-eligible areas to identify and at- 
 tract industries with locational requirements 
 compatible with the areas' resources. 
 
 Method: This document contains results of a 
 special survey of manufacturing firms. Over 
 8,000 questionnaires were mailed by the Cen- 
 sus Bureau in 1972 to some 2,950 firms in over 
 250 selected product classes (5-digit SIC 
 codes), which had demonstrated reasonable 
 growth between 1958 and 1967. Survey 
 responses are aggregated by product class, but 
 no analysis is provided. 
 
 Findings: For each product class, the inven- 
 tory of survey results gives the following in- 
 formation: 
 
 1 . Product Class Name and Number; 
 
 2. Number of Firms Responding to 
 Questionnaires; 
 
 3. Per Cent of Fir.ms Planning to Establish 
 Facilities at New Locations or Expand; 
 
 4. Location of New or Expanded 
 Establishment (central city, metropolitan, 
 industrial park); 
 
 5. Community Size Preference (population); 
 
 6. Plant Site Size Preference (no. of acres); 
 
 7. Number of Employees at New or 
 Expanded Plant (at full operation); 
 
 8. Community Attributes Desired in Plant 
 Location; 
 
 9. Plant Site Features Desired; 
 
 10. Locational Objectives To Be Achieved. 
 
 VI-4. Title: Effectiveness of Financial Incentives on 
 Investments in the Economic Development 
 Administration's Designated Areas 
 Authors: Jack G. Faucett and John J. Per- 
 shing 
 
 Organization: Jack Faucett Associates 
 Date: June 1976 Pp.: 68 NTIS: PB 256 
 675 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To investigate the most cost-effective 
 policies for stimulating private job-creation in 
 labor-surplus areas. Also, to identify the 
 benefit/cost ratios of these policies with 
 respect to the total economic welfare, and to 
 address how these policies can best be ad- 
 ministered so as to minimize adverse impacts 
 in the market and inequities among citizens. 
 
 Method: The major forms for financial incen- 
 tives are categorized and evaluated. Informa- 
 tion pertinent to foreign experience with 
 various incentives is included for informa- 
 tional and comparative purposes. Data used in 
 the evaluation of incentives were compiled 
 from various Federal and private organiza- 
 tional studies. 
 
 Findings: A combination capital/operating 
 subsidy is the most cost-effective method to in- 
 duce new or expanded business operations in a 
 targeted area. For national companies, tax 
 subsidies provide the greatest inducement. 
 Guaranteed or direct loans provide the most 
 efficient method for government to assume a 
 capital risk. With respect to firms employing 
 low-skilled labor, wage subsidies appear most 
 cost-effective for both local and national firms 
 for inducing new or expanded plants. Cor- 
 porate income tax subsidies are especially inef- 
 ficient as financial incentives and tax-exempt 
 industrial development revenue bonds are not 
 cost-effective. 
 
 VI- 5. Title: A System for the Analysis, Evaluation 
 and Design of Organizations, Work, and Jobs 
 Author: Charles W. Lachenmeyer 
 Organization: St. John's University 
 Date: 1976 Pp.: 108 NTIS: PB 265 
 159 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To present a viable theory of design 
 of jobs and organizations. Also critiques tradi- 
 tional job-analysis approaches. 
 
 39 
 
VI-6. 
 
 Method: The components of a viable theory of 
 job analysis are listed. The job analytic system 
 advocated by the study is presented in detail in 
 the form of an ordered series of questions, 
 categorized according to the four components 
 of the system. 
 
 The second part of the report compares past 
 job-analysis theory with the proposed system, 
 highlighting disadvantages of traditional ap- 
 proaches and advantages of the present job 
 analytic system. The critique of traditional job 
 analysis approaches was the result of an "ex- 
 haustive" review of two bodies of research and 
 theory: job design and job analysis. 
 
 Findings: When applied to a job situation, the VI-7. 
 
 job analytic system presented will produce a 
 complete analysis of that situation including: 
 (1) job descriptions, (2) the evaluation of 
 employee performance in those jobs, (3) the 
 assessment of the adequacy of the jobs and of 
 the relations within the organization, and (4) 
 the generation of all the possible changes in the 
 jobs. These are the components essential for a 
 complete and sufficient theory of design of 
 jobs and organizations. 
 
 Traditional approaches are deficient for 
 three primary reasons: (1) they are not suffi- 
 ciently systematically detailed, (2) the method- 
 ologies for gathering the job descriptions are 
 typically devoid of any criteria for testing the 
 sufficiency of the descriptions, and (3) these 
 approaches do not account for functional rela- 
 tions among jobs. 
 
 Title: Tourism in the United States — 
 
 Potentials and Problems 
 
 Organization: Leisure Systems, Inc. 
 
 Date: January 1976 Pp.: 25 NTIS: PB 259 
 
 546 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To discuss both the potential eco- 
 nomic impact the tourism industry could have 
 as well as some of the problems and limitations 
 that currently exist. 
 
 Method: The tourist industry is defined as an 
 industry which provides people recreation, 
 pleasure, and/or escape in an away-from- 
 home environment. After narrowing the defi- VI-8. 
 
 nition of tourist to exclude functional trans- 
 portation enroute and ancillary services, each 
 of the generic categories of the tourist industry 
 are evaluated. These include: lodgings, amuse- 
 ment parks, scenic attractions, beaches and 
 marinas, museums, and food services. A 
 bibliography of selected private and govern- 
 ment sources is provided. 
 
 Findings: Tourism is discussed in the context 
 of being a business and, thus, subject to care- 
 ful business evaluations and realities. Market- 
 
 ing, management, sales, optimum size, invest- 
 ment, and product and competition must each 
 be analyzed. Too often, government tourist 
 officials are recruited from advertising fields 
 and do not fully understand the intrinsic com- 
 plexities of the tourist business. Government 
 officials tend to overemphasize promotional 
 efforts. A need exists, both nationally and 
 regionally, for more operational data and 
 more professionally and educated personnel at 
 all levels. 
 
 Title: Comments on Kelso's "Two Factor 
 Theory" and Employee Stock Option Pro- 
 grams (ESOP's) 
 Author: Monroe Newman 
 Date: July 1976 Pp.: 27 7V77S: PB 270 
 095 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To evaluate the implications of in- 
 creased participation in capital ownership 
 through Employee Stock Option Programs, as 
 proposed by Louis O. Kelso in his book, Two 
 Factor Theory. 
 
 Method: The author analyzes Employee Stock 
 Option Programs with respect to their impacts 
 on: (1) the shortage of investible funds; (2) 
 corporate tax benefits; (3) labor participation 
 in management; and (4) income protection for 
 employees. Two Factor Theory is critiqued 
 from a theoretical point of view, using fre- 
 quent references to economic principles to il- 
 lustrate alleged misconceptions by Kelso. 
 
 Findings: Employee Stock Option Programs 
 are not based on Kelso's theory but are based 
 on peculiarities in the corporate income tax 
 laws that permit before-tax payments for fr- 
 inge benefits to be used as a source of cor- 
 porate capital. If Employee Stock Option Pro- 
 grams are to be supported as a financial 
 device, it must be on some other personally or 
 socially established goal. Two Factor Theory is 
 based on a misunderstanding of modern eco- 
 nomics. 
 
 Title: The Reliability of Industrial Location 
 
 Surveys 
 
 Author: Sharon Oster 
 
 Organization: Yale University 
 
 Date: June 1976 Pp.: 19 NTIS: PB 257 
 
 015 Price Code: Ml 
 
 Purpose: To test the consistency between: (1) 
 survey data on the determinants of industrial 
 location and; (2) data on factor requirements 
 in particular industries. Also identifies the area 
 and site attributes found to be important to 
 location decisions. 
 
 40 
 
Method: The survey chosen for testing was 
 EDA's 1971 Survey of Industrial Location De- 
 terminants. In that survey, over 2,500 firms in 
 222 5-digit SIC codes were asked to specify the 
 importance to their locational decisions of 30 
 area and site attributes. 
 
 The reliability of survey responses (as well as 
 the sensibility of locational decisions) is tested 
 by correlating, by industry groups, the at- 
 tributes listed as either critical or important to 
 some objective features of the production pro- 
 cess used in the various industries. Multi- 
 variate regressions are run by industry using 
 various area or site attributes as dependent 
 variables, and independent data on features 
 important to production processes as indepen- 
 dent variables. A correlation matrix of loca- 
 tional determinants is constructed to examine 
 the interrelationships between attributes. 
 
 Findings: Survey data on the determinants of 
 industrial location may be quite reliable. In 
 fact, properly-designed surveys may provide 
 more information on how firms choose loca- 
 tions than a commonly-used alternative, 
 revealed preference (which infers locational 
 preference from observed locational patterns). 
 Critical site attributes included access to 
 highways and railroads, access to labor (with 
 skilled labor weighed slightly higher), tax in- 
 centives, access to natural gas, and availability 
 of high quality public services (water, sewer, 
 police and fire protection, etc.). One policy 
 implication is that tax reductions to lure new 
 firms, coupled with reductions in public ser- 
 vices (e.g., waste treatment facilities), may not 
 be the optimal development strategy for many 
 localities to follow. Firms are seeking out loca- 
 tions with access to high quality waste treat- 
 ment facilities in order to comply with pollu- 
 tion laws at least cost. 
 
 VI-9. Title: A Review of the 1971 EDA Location 
 Survey 
 
 Author: Sharon Oster 
 Organization: Yale University 
 Date: May 1975 Pp.: 60 NTIS: PB 257 
 661 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To improve, update, and validate 
 EDA's 1970 Survey of Industrial Location De- 
 terminants. 
 
 Method: Reviews the theoretical and empirical 
 literature on industrial location, including 
 hypotheses about firm objectives, industry 
 structure, information and uncertainty on 
 firms' location decisions. Empirical studies of 
 industrial location are divided into two types: 
 revealed preference analysis, and industrial 
 
 surveys. The merits and shortcomings of each 
 type are discussed, and specific empirical 
 studies of each type are presented. 
 
 The author then reviews the 1971 EDA 
 Survey and results. Some statistical tests are 
 made of the conformity of the actual survey 
 responses to those which might be expected 
 from theory. For example, regressions are run 
 to test the correlation of reported data on area 
 and site attributes to independent data on pro- 
 duction features, by industry group. 
 
 The 1971 Survey is then updated and revised 
 in recognition of changes in the real world and 
 theoretical advancements. The effect of 
 changes in business cycles, the rapid oil price 
 increase, and the imposition of stricter en- 
 vironmental controls by governments, as well 
 as an extended theory to account for the in- 
 creased roles of imperfect information and un- 
 certainty are examined and placed in a revised 
 survey. 
 
 The study utilizes data from the U.S. De- 
 partment of Commerce, Federal Energy 
 Agency, and several other sources. 
 
 Findings: A revised survey questionnaire is 
 presented which better tests theories of firm in- 
 dustrial location decisions, particularly with 
 respect to search costs of new sites. Questions 
 on the role of energy prices/availability, per- 
 sonal preference for an area, and ownership 
 patterns are added. However, the 1971 Survey 
 appears to be sensible and quite useful. 
 
 VI- 10. Title: The Manufacturing Location Decision: 
 Evidence from Cincinnati and New England 
 Author: Roger W. Schmenner 
 Organization: Harvard Business School 
 Date: March, 1978 Pp.: 393 NTIS: PB 283 
 457 Price Code: All 
 
 Purpose: To analyze the domestic location 
 decision of manufacturing plants and to 
 evaluate how and why these locations have 
 been shifting over time. 
 
 Method: The study focuses on the Cincinnati 
 metropolitan area over the period 1971 to 1975 
 and on the New England region over the 
 period 1970 to 1976. All types of manufactur- 
 ing industries in these locations are analyzed 
 by use of data obtained from government, 
 Dun and Bradstreet, private sources and the 
 extensive use of questionnaires sent to manu- 
 facturing plants in the survey areas. 
 
 Findings: Evidence does not support the em- 
 phasis being placed on tax and financial incen- 
 tives and on-site preparation as cornerstones 
 of urban economic development policies. Both 
 these policies have proven largely ineffective. 
 
 41 
 
Rather, emphasis should be placed on: (1) fa- 
 cilitating the on-site expansion of companies 
 already residing in a city; (2) helping small, 
 growing plants to find new or additional space 
 within a city; and (3) promoting the city's ad- 
 vantages as an initial location for new incor- 
 porations and new branch plants. 
 
 VI-12. 
 
 VI- 1 1. Title: The Role of Entrepreneurship in Eco- 
 nomic Development at the Less-Than- 
 National-Level 
 A uthor: Albert Shapero 
 Organization: University of Texas (Austin) 
 Date: January 1977 Pp.: 78 NTIS: PB 264 
 238 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To examine the effect of entrepre- 
 neurship on economic development at the local 
 level and to offer a reseach agenda for con- 
 sideration by EDA. 
 
 Method: Various views of entrepreneurship 
 and its relationship to economic development 
 are delineated. While some regard the entre- 
 preneur as the sine qua non of economic 
 development, others treat entrepreneurship as 
 a catch-all residual factor. 
 
 A literature review of one aspect of entre- 
 preneurship — the company formation pro- 
 cess — is also provided. This review focuses on 
 the factors that affect the number of new firms 
 in a given community. 
 
 Findings: Entrepreneurship involves a multi- 
 plicity of independent decision-making units, 
 each with a somewhat different vantage point. 
 This variety of assessments provides a higher 
 likelihood that decisions are made with a local 
 orientation. Entrepreneurship provides an out- 
 let for new ideas and products. Society is pro- 
 vided with a relatively low risk, low (acturial) 
 cost approach to the problem of testing new 
 ideas. Even entrepreneurial failures have 
 positive effects, providing valuable social 
 learning at very little political and economic 
 risk. 
 
 Only through further research can EDA and 
 other interested organizations acquire the 
 body of knowledge, techniques, and data 
 needed to stimulate entrepreneurship. Needed 
 are studies of: regional differences in company 
 formation and failure, the effects of Federal 
 legislation on company formation, minority 
 entrepreneurship, venture-capital financing, 
 and the factors that lead to company failure. 
 
 VI-13. 
 
 Title: A Proposal for a Development Bank for 
 
 the United States 
 
 Author: Edward D. Smith 
 
 Date: February 1977 Pp.: 28 NTIS: PB 267 
 
 763 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To discuss the role of a national de- 
 velopment bank and to propose specific guide- 
 lines for its administration. 
 
 Method: The essential elements in the struc- 
 ture of a national development bank are dis- 
 cussed (for example, its lending authority and 
 lending limits). The bank's charter is dis- 
 cussed. Effective forces ensuring financial via- 
 bility of the development bank are reviewed. 
 The study is a discussion paper for an ad hoc 
 advisory group meeting of the Economic De- 
 velopment Administration, U.S. Department 
 of Commerce, March 1977. 
 
 Findings: There is a need for a coordinated na- 
 tional program of development. This can best 
 be fulfilled through the creation of a national 
 development bank. Such a development bank 
 can help spur growth within the country, in- 
 crease efficiency in the government, and return 
 to States and localities greater control in their 
 affairs. A national development bank should 
 work with existing development and financial 
 institutions, i.e. the bank's role should be 
 similar to that of a central bank. The bank's 
 lending authority should include loans to small 
 businesses and minority enterprises, and work- 
 ing capital to businesses in depressed areas. 
 Loan guarantees should also be a function of 
 the bank. The limits on its lending authority 
 include minimal limits on the interest rate of 
 loans. The bank should be a federally char- 
 tered, quasi-public institution. Careful atten- 
 tion to the quality of loans and management 
 that is sufficiently shielded from political fac- 
 tors are two means of ensuring financial 
 soundness of the development bank. 
 
 Title: The Unemployment Insurance Tax 
 Structure in New York State 
 Author: William Wallace, etal. 
 Organization: RRC International, Inc. 
 Date: January 1 979 Pp. : 1 43 NTIS: PB 298 
 560 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: To provide material useful to the de- 
 velopment of a new tax table of unemploy- 
 ment insurance payroll tax rates. 
 
 Method: After a review of the New York State 
 Unemployment Insurance progran, discussion 
 shifts to evaluation of experience rating 
 (variable tax rates indexed to a firm's employ- 
 ment record) and the impact of experience 
 rating on seasonal industries. Finally, the 
 
 42 
 
"Mercer Model" developed for the New York 
 State Department of Labor and used to project 
 an actual or proposed tax plan through various 
 employment cycles is analyzed. Data from 
 various New York State agencies are utilized. 
 
 Findings: Without a change in current legisla- 
 tion, the Unemployment Insurance fund 
 deficit will continue to increase as long as New 
 York State's unemployment rate is above 6.2 
 percent. Debate on experience rating centers 
 around two issues: (1) the efficacy and equity 
 of this system as a means of allocating the cost 
 of the program; and (2) its effectiveness as an 
 incentive to stabilize employment. Seasonal in- 
 dustries bear a greater tax burden under the ex- 
 perience rating system than do non-seasonal 
 industries. Concerning the Mercer Model, the 
 model is intended only for interating max- 
 imum and minimum tax rates; it is not a com- 
 plete solution for generating and evaluating 
 new Unemployment Insurance tax tables. 
 
 43 
 
VII. Sectoral Analysis 
 
 Changes in the sectoral (industrial) composition of 
 national output and sector productivity can have pro- 
 found impacts on regional and urban growth patterns. 
 For example, the decline of one dominant industry 
 could cause the decline of an entire urban or regional 
 economy. A knowledge of sectoral and intersectoral 
 trends is therefore necessary for a better understanding 
 of the economic changes occurring in the regions and 
 
 urban areas of the United States. 
 
 EDA has supported the development and refinement 
 of several intersectoral studies, including the Multi- 
 regional Input-Output Model (MRIO) and the Income 
 Determination Input-Output Model (IDIOM). How- 
 ever, much work remains to be done in the analysis of 
 the relationships of sectoral trends and domestic eco- 
 nomic development. 
 
 
 44 
 
VIII. Regulation 
 
 EDA research in this problem area has been primarily 
 concerned with the effects of environmental regulation 
 on economic development. Although the goals of most 
 regulatory actions are widely accepted, it must be 
 recognized that these actions also entail important costs. 
 
 For example, environmental regulation may impede 
 firm formation or induce plant closure, resulting in lost 
 jobs. As a result, the central policy problem for devel- 
 opers becomes how to minimize these kinds of disloca- 
 tions without sacrificing regulatory goals. 
 
 VIII— 1 . Title: Effects of Environmental Protection 
 Regulation on Regional Economic Develop- 
 ment 
 
 Author: Frank H. Troutman, etal. 
 Organization: University of Arkansas 
 Date: September 1977 Pp.: 137 NTIS: 
 PB 278 9 1 8 Price Code: A07 
 
 Purpose: To assess the impacts (costs) of en- 
 vironmental regulations and energy short- 
 ages on economic development. 
 
 Method: Four studies are presented. The 
 first two specifically address the economic 
 costs of environmental protection controls. 
 Relevant environmental protection legisla- 
 tion is reviewed. Sources referred to include 
 the 10th Annual McGraw-Hill Survey, 
 Chase Econometric Associates, Inc., Bureau 
 of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor), 
 and Bureau of Economic Analysis (Depart- 
 ment of Commerce). 
 
 The third study addresses the economic 
 impact of increasing energy costs. The long- 
 term economic impact on the Arkansas eco- 
 nomy of using Western coal as well as 
 Arkansas lignite is examined. 
 
 The final study highlights a "development 
 plan that can achieve maximum industrial 
 development while minimizing environmen- 
 tal disruption." The plan involves the co- 
 operation of private industry and public 
 utilities in reducing environmental control 
 and energy costs. 
 
 Findings: Environmental protection regula- 
 tions are in need of thorough re-evaluation. 
 The economic costs of such controls pre- 
 sently outweigh any environmental benefits 
 that might accrue from these controls. The 
 environmental regulations actually prohibit 
 
 the development of pollution control tech- 
 nology. Furthermore, the controls are inade- 
 quately applied. The deleterious economic 
 repercussions of controls (and rising energy 
 costs) are greater in economically distressed 
 areas. In addition, the intertwined forces of 
 environmental control legislation and energy 
 shortages affect industrial location and im- 
 pose barriers to industrial expansion. 
 
 VIII-2. Title: Relationship of Environmental 
 Improvement Efforts on Development in 
 Economically Distressed Areas 
 Author: Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc. 
 Date: May 1976 Pp.: 27 NTIS: PB 256 
 702 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To analyze the interface of EPA 
 and EDA programs and develop the policy 
 implications for EDA. 
 
 Method: The authors summarize the legisla- 
 tive history and implementation of EPA and 
 EDA programs. They analyze environmental 
 legislation such as the Clean Air Act of 1970, 
 the Federal Water Pollution Control Act and 
 their amendments. They also use interviews 
 with key governmental personnel at EPA 
 and EDA to formulate policy implications 
 for EDA. 
 
 Findings: EPA's environmental protection 
 standards increase industry costs. These cost 
 increases may result in closure and un- 
 employment. The differential enforcement 
 of such standards across regions affects in- 
 dustry location and redefines the balance 
 between urban and rural centers. Programs 
 designed to increase economic activity in 
 
 45 
 
distressed areas are hindered by environmen- 
 tal control measures. Research should be 
 conducted on such topics as the dynamics of 
 the economic development process, the rela- 
 tionship between environmental regulation 
 and the economic development process, and 
 the dynamics of economic development 
 planning and pollution control at the State, 
 regional, and local level. 
 
 46 
 
IX. Natural Resources 
 
 The energy crisis of the early 1970's and subsequent 
 world events have led to heightened awareness of the 
 potential economic impact of higher energy prices and 
 uncertain supplies. While some areas benefit from in- 
 creased energy production and higher energy prices, net 
 consuming areas are hurt. Such a natural resource 
 supply constraint can impede an area's economic devel- 
 opment. 
 
 Recent EDA research focuses on the short- and long- 
 run economic consequences of increased energy prices. 
 The energy- and natural resource-related development 
 problems of specific regions are also investigated. For 
 example, an EDA-funded study of the water resource 
 problems of the High Plains region is expected to be 
 completed in 1982. In New England energy is a prime 
 development concern at the present time. 
 
 IX-1. 
 
 Title: Energy: The New Economic 
 Development Wildcard 
 Author: Shirley P. Burggraf 
 Organization: Florida A & M University 
 Date: January 1978 Pp.: 55 NTIS: PB 282 
 494 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: Examines the impact of energy avail- 
 ability and cost on the interregional pattern of 
 economic development. Specific issues in- 
 clude: energy-related dislocations as a factor 
 in firm location and survival, the size of inter- 
 regional income transfers due to energy prices 
 and the longer-term effect of energy on the 
 regional distribution of income. 
 
 Method: Studies by the Oak Ridge National 
 Laboratory* were used to calculate energy 
 consumption/production differentials by 
 States and regions and to estimate regional im- 
 ports or exports and the direction of the subse- 
 quent income transfer. States are ranked ac- 
 cording to energy-advantage and per capita in- 
 come to ascertain whether energy cost/avail- 
 ability were provided by the Federal Power 
 Commission. 
 
 *Ongoing EDA-sponsored series entitled "Energy Availabilities for 
 State and Local Development. ' ' Volumes available at present are: 
 Volume I: A Methodolpgical and Data Overview, NTIS: 
 
 ORNL/TM-5890, Price Code: A04. 
 Volume II: 7972 Data Volume, NTIS: ORNL/TM-5890/S1, 
 
 Price Code: A 12. 
 Volume III: 1973 Data Volume, NTIS: ORNL/TM-5890/S2, 
 
 Price Code: A 12. 
 Volume IV: 1974 Data Volume, NTIS: ORNL/TM-5890/S3, 
 
 Price Code: A 12. 
 Volume V: Projected Energy Patterns for 1980 and 1985, NTIS: 
 ORNL/TM-5890/S4, Price Code: A23. 
 
 Findings: Energy costs vary widely by States 
 and regions. The highest costs and largest re- 
 cent increases have occurred in areas where the 
 abundance of energy production is greatest. 
 The statistical correlation between local 
 energy prices and local net production is very 
 weak. But these transfers appear to make per 
 capita incomes more equal across regions in 
 most cases. 
 
 Rising energy prices have resulted in income 
 transfers between energy consuming and pro- 
 ducing States, representing shifts in buying 
 power from one market to another. 
 
 IX-2. Title: A Study Design for the High Plains De- 
 velopment Project 
 Author: Kenneth Frederick 
 Organization: Resources for the Future, Inc. 
 Date: July 1976 Pp.: 115 NTIS: PB 297 
 810 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To outline a study design that 
 would: 1) determine policy alternatives for the 
 High Plains with respect to the region's declin- 
 ing water and energy resources; and 2) assess 
 the local, State, and national implications of 
 these alternative development strategies. 
 
 Method: A detailed chronology of the project 
 is provided by means of a project schedule, a 
 milestone chart, and a flow chart. The func- 
 tions of the various project groups and par- 
 ticipants are described. Necessary qualifica- 
 tions of the participants involved are high- 
 lighted. Preliminary cost estimates are given. 
 An extensive indexed bibliography including 
 published and unpublished materials as well as 
 
 47 
 
organizations relevant to the proposed study is 
 included in the appendix. Finally, a second ap- 
 pendix lists the people contacted in designing 
 the High Plains study. 
 
 Findings: The High Plains region is dependent 
 on a "rapidly declining and essentially non- 
 renewable supply of ground water." In addi- 
 tion, the region's economy is faced with de- 
 clining oil and gas reserves. The development 
 policies adopted will determine the long-run 
 welfare of the region. An examination of 
 policy alternatives is thus an essential pre- 
 requisite for policy implementation. 
 
 The study design would project the region's 
 water and energy shortages and examine the 
 relationship between these resources and eco- 
 nomic growth "under an array of policy- 
 induced changes in the technological, econom- 
 ic, social, and governmental environment." 
 The participants would include: 1) the Prin- 
 cipal Contractor; 2) the General Advisory 
 Board; 3) six State advisory boards; 4) three 
 sets of State research groups, and 5) nine 
 assessment groups (assessing, for example, 
 dryland farming, crop prices, and national 
 and regional impacts). The study's duration 
 would be approximately three and one-half 
 years; the project cost— $5,432,580. 
 
 IX-3 . Title: Energy for the Growing South 
 Author: Russell L. Howard 
 Organization: Phillips Petroleum Company 
 Date: January, 1977 
 
 Published in: The Future of the South 's 
 Economy, NTIS: PB 268 469, Price Code: 
 All 
 
 Purpose: This is an occasional paper commis- 
 sioned by the Southern Growth Policies Board 
 and presented to a conference on the future of 
 the South's economy. It addresses general 
 energy issues relevant to the Southern eco- 
 nomy. 
 
 Method: A general overview of energy issues, 
 from both a national and Southern perspec- 
 tive, is presented. Energy reserves, production 
 and consumption rates between the South and 
 the Nation are compared and contrasted. Data 
 are provided on known domestic energy re- 
 sources, oil and natural gas production and 
 consumption, and motor fuel, household and 
 commercial energy consumption. 
 
 Findings: The South is relatively well-endowed 
 with conventional energy sources (crude oil, 
 natural gas and coal), and holds almost one- 
 third of the Nation's known uranium reserves. 
 The proximity of resources in the South will 
 result in relatively lower energy costs than in 
 other areas of the country. Net exports of 
 energy have a favorable effect on the region's 
 
 balance of payments. In the short- and 
 medium-term, greater reliance must be placed 
 on nuclear power and coal. Oil shale, tar 
 sands, wind, tidal and solar energy will not 
 become significant factors until the twenty- 
 first century. 
 
 IX-4. Title: Mobile Nuclear Power Plants: Initial 
 Feasibility Study 
 Author: D.W. Jones 
 Organization: Memphis State University 
 Date: May 1976 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 258 
 232 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To study the feasibility of mobile 
 nuclear power plants. 
 
 Method: The concept and history of mobile 
 nuclear power plants are discussed as well as 
 their potential utilization for industrial, 
 military, transportation, and civil needs. 
 Technical and economic feasibility are re- 
 viewed and specific milestones are proposed 
 for development and usage. An appendix 
 discusses the use of the consolidated nuclear 
 steam generator power plant now under devel- 
 opment by Babcock and Wilcox Corp. 
 
 Data for this study came mainly from the 
 Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the U.S. 
 Atomic Energy Commission. Studies by in- 
 dividuals such as R.W. Barnes, "New Energy 
 Sources for Process Heat" for Dow Chemical 
 Company, 1975, and J. Papamarcos, "In- 
 dustrial Power Plants: New Options and 
 Problems," 1975, are also utilized. 
 
 Findings: A potential market exists for mobile 
 nuclear power plants, especially by the 
 military for wartime and emergency use. It is 
 also felt that nuclear power is a viable energy 
 source for water transportation, as well as for 
 small nations. 
 
 Small, mobile nuclear plants are technically 
 feasible but the optimum design of reactor and 
 plant have not been achieved. Therefore, a 
 detailed design study of a modular construc- 
 tion for industry is suggested. As for economic 
 feasibility, they are not presently cost-com- 
 petitive with alternative sources of nuclear 
 energy but could become so through design 
 and construction breakthroughs which reduce 
 initial unit cost. Faster licensing, reduced envi- 
 ronmental regulation, and standardized train- 
 ing procedures for personnel would also 
 reduce start-up costs. 
 
 48 
 
IX-5. Title: Regional Economic Consequences of 
 High Energy Prices in the United States 
 Author: William H. Miernyk 
 Organization: West Virginia University 
 Date: Spring 1 976 Pp. : 26 
 
 Copies available from Economic Research IX-6 
 
 Division, EDA, or see Spring 1976 issue of the 
 Journal of Energy and Development. 
 
 Purpose: Assesses the regional economic con- 
 sequences of the changing relationship be- 
 tween energy prices, primarily coal, and other 
 prices. 
 
 Method: The author's analysis is based on the 
 assumption that high energy prices are here to 
 stay and that high future demand relative to 
 supply will keep energy prices rising faster 
 than other wholesale prices. The paper begins 
 with a discussion of the oil embargo and its ef- 
 fect on energy prices. The long-run energy 
 outlook and the long-run regional conse- 
 quences of high energy prices are discussed. 
 Potential income transfers between energy 
 consuming States and energy producing States 
 are also considered. The study concludes by 
 assessing the impact of changing energy prices 
 on regional development policy. 
 
 Statistical data come from the following 
 sources: data for energy production and prices 
 from Minerals Yearbook, regional coal supply 
 curves for 1985 estimated by the Federal 
 Energy Administration and employment 
 figures for primary energy reduction from 
 County Business Patterns. Several indepen- 
 dent studies are cited. 
 
 Findings: High energy costs will have a retard- 
 ing effect on economic growth in general, with 
 differential regional impact. In the short-run, 
 there will be increases in coal revenues and tax 
 receipts to coal producing States. This will 
 have an immediate regional impact of 
 cushioning the recession in energy producing 
 States and worsening it in energy consuming 
 States. 
 
 In the long-run, there will be a shift of real IX-7. 
 
 income from energy consumers to energy pro- 
 ducers. The energy producing States will im- 
 pose higher taxes on coal to recapture eco- 
 nomic rents formerly going to consumers in 
 other regions. The first impact will be a rapid 
 increase in the price of electric energy. The 
 second impact will be a shift in location of in- 
 dustry to lower power-cost locations. The dis- 
 advantaged energy consuming States could be- 
 come depressed areas if jobs lost could not be 
 replaced by a new growth sector. 
 
 Typical regional development investment 
 approaches in private activities or in public 
 works to stimulate growth will not work in 
 disadvantaged areas. The only solution may 
 be to admit that these areas are overgrown and 
 
 underfinanced and to make the long-run ad- 
 justments in attitudes towards slower growth 
 that will be needed. 
 
 Title: Regional Impacts of Rising Energy 
 
 Prices 
 
 Authors: William H. Miernyk, Frank 
 
 Giarrantani, Charles F. Socher, John T. Sears 
 
 and Larry R. Padgett 
 
 Organization: West Virginia University 
 
 Date: August 1 977 Pp. : 157 
 
 Limited number of copies are available 
 from Economic Research Division, EDA. 
 Also published by Ballinger, 1978. 
 
 Purpose: To assess the regional impacts of 
 rising energy prices. 
 
 Method: A series of related regional growth 
 studies are presented (for example, "The 
 Northeast Isn't What It Used To Be", "Ap- 
 plication of an Interindustry Supply Model to 
 Energy Issues", "Simulating Industrial Loca- 
 tion to Minimize Energy Costs"). Various 
 methodological approaches are taken (for ex- 
 ample, descriptive overview, input-output 
 model application, computer simulation exer- 
 cise). Unlike the traditional (demand- 
 oriented) literature of regional economic 
 growth, these studies deal with supply con- 
 straints and the effects of these constraints on 
 regional development. 
 
 Findings: Energy will become increasingly im- 
 portant as a locational determinant of in- 
 dustry. Energy-producing States will attract 
 more manufacturing activities. The Northeast, 
 while likely to suffer from an out-migration of 
 energy-intensive industry, will not become an 
 economic disaster area. Creating public 
 awareness to the need of making various ad- 
 justments due to energy price increases may 
 prove a very difficult task. 
 
 Title: Energy and Income in Arkansas 
 Authors: John H. Opitz and Frank H. Trout- 
 man 
 
 Organization: Industrial Research and Exten- 
 sion Center, University of Arkansas 
 Date: May 1977 Pp.: 29 NTIS: PB 268 
 291 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess the long-term economic 
 impact on the Arkansas economy that would 
 result from the use of Western coal in electric 
 power generation. To assess the feasibility of 
 using Arkansas lignite for electric power gen- 
 eration. 
 
 Method: The national energy policy and 
 Arkansas' energy policy are reviewed. Various 
 cost estimates for generating electric power in 
 
 49 
 
Arkansas from Western coal and Arkansas 
 lignite are compared for 1976 and 1983-1986. 
 Total costs include mining costs, taxes, trans- 
 portation costs, environmental costs, and dif- 
 ferences in plant design. The impact on per- 
 sonal income and tax revenues of using alter- 
 native fuels in Arkansas over the years 
 1983-1986 is assessed. In addition, the impact 
 of technology on the economic feasibility of 
 lignite and coal is examined. The findings are 
 computed by the Industrial Research and Ex- 
 tension Center from data obtained from 
 various regional energy commissions, com- 
 panies, and utilities. 
 
 Findings: The total variable cost estimates of 
 lignite are less than that of coal. By 1986, the 
 net impact on Arkansas' total personal income 
 from using local lignite rather than Western 
 coal could be $504.6 million. (Use of Western 
 coal could create an annual income leakage of 
 up to $314.9 million of personal income from 
 Arkansas' economy; the use of lignite could 
 create an income flow of $189.7 million). This 
 income gain could support an additional 
 37,000 jobs in Arkansas. By 1986, the net im- 
 pact on State revenues from the use of lignite 
 rather than out-of-state coal could be $45.8 
 million. 
 
 IX-8. Title: New England Blueprint for Energy Ac- 
 tion: Preliminary Report for Public Review 
 Author: Bailey Spencer, ed. 
 Organization: New England Energy Congress 
 Date: November 1 978 Pp. : 298 
 
 Not available. This is only a preliminary 
 report. 
 
 Purpose: To analyze the worsening energy sit- 
 uation in New England and to stimulate public 
 input on the preliminary findings and recom- 
 mendations of the New England Energy Con- 
 gress. 
 
 Method: The 120 delegates who participated 
 in the Congress worked to frame and substan- 
 tiate energy proposals. Preliminary findings 
 and recommendations are the product of over 
 100 meetings of the six committees and their 
 subcommittees. These committees include: 
 New England Energy Supply, Economic De- 
 velopment through Alternative Sources of 
 Energy, New England Energy Demand, 
 Energy Conservation, Regulatory and Institu- 
 tional Processes, and Energy Economics and 
 Financing. After all committees incorporate 
 all public input generated by this report, the 
 New England Energy Congress will release a 
 New England Blueprint for Energy Action. 
 
 Findings: Although the recommendations of 
 the six committees are diverse, agreement ex- 
 ists on the need for alternative energy sources: 
 
 wood, peat, wind, solar, hydro. Recommen- 
 dations to conserve energy include: home 
 energy audits, conservation tax incentives, 
 conservation regulations, and increased fund- 
 ing of alternative transportation modes. 
 
 IX-9. Title: Socio-Economic and Environmental In- 
 teractions in the Upper Main Stem Sub-Basin 
 of the Colorado River Basin: Three Alter- 
 native Energy Development Futures 
 Authors: Bernard Udis and Robert C. Hess, 
 eds. 
 
 Organization: University of Colorado 
 Date: December 1976 Pp.: 213 NTIS: PB 
 266 082 Price Code: A 1 3 
 
 Purpose: To estimate the employment, socio- 
 economic, and environmental impacts of three 
 alternative scenarios for underground coal de- 
 velopment, against a baseline scenario for a 
 region along the North Fork of the Gunnison 
 River. 
 
 Method: A baseline scenario for coal develop- 
 ment in a region encompassing seven counties 
 and eight Census County Divisions (CCD's) in 
 western Colorado is developed. This baseline 
 assumes the continuance through 1980 of 
 trends in coal production observed during the 
 decade 1960-1970. Three off-trend projec- 
 tions were also made to take into account an 
 increased demand for relatively attractive 
 North Fork coal. The scenarios assumed 
 increased coal output from mines in various 
 parts of the region. The coal could be either 
 exported or kept to fuel a hypothetical power 
 plant. 
 
 The study simulated the impacts of the al- 
 ternate scenarios upon the region's level of 
 employment, socio-economic framework, and 
 air and water quality. Attention was focused 
 on the years prior to 1980, when the region 
 was likely to undergo the stresses of expan- 
 sion. Shift-share analysis, impact analysis, a 
 hydrological model, and an Air Pollution 
 Generation and Dispersion Model were uti- 
 lized in the analysis. 
 
 Findings: Increased demand for coal will add 
 from 1700 to 2200 extra jobs to the seven- 
 county area (to a baseline of 46,000). Because 
 many of the construction jobs (for the power 
 plant) would not be permanent, however, a 
 "boom/bust" cycle may develop. 
 
 Population growth rates will increase, espe- 
 cially in the immediate areas surrounding the 
 increased mining activity. This will create a 
 need for more housing and schools. At first, 
 these increased demands could be met by tem- 
 porary facilities (mobile homes, temporary 
 classrooms); eventually they would have to be 
 met by more permanent ones. 
 
 50 
 
The simulation results show little impact on 
 the water quality of the region's three basins. 
 Salinity effects are minor; total dissolved 
 solids are likely to increase only slightly. The 
 chief addition to air pollution in the region 
 would come from the operation of the power 
 plant. 
 
 51 
 
X. Rapid Growth/Boom Towns 
 
 Rapid growth through the development of new energy vices are immediate and heavy. Environmental damage 
 
 or mineral resources may cause an area to experience the may also make the economic boom a mixed blessing, 
 
 "boom town" phenomenon. This phenomenon is char- The need for development planning in such areas is 
 
 acterized by a mismatch between the peak and long- often acute. No recent EDA studies have considered the 
 
 term needs of an area for schools, housing, roads, etc. special development problems created by boom towns. 
 Fiscal strain may also result if demands for public ser- 
 
 52 
 
XI. Cyclical Unemployment 
 
 Cyclical unemployment results from fluctuations in 
 the level of business activity. Such fluctuations typically 
 affect the entire economy but may have dispropor- 
 tionate sectoral impact on particular industries, areas, 
 or regions. In addition to general fiscal and monetary 
 policies, policy responses may include public works pro- 
 grams and public service employment. 
 
 Common issues reviewed in recent EDA studies in- 
 clude the objectives and goals of countercyclical 
 devices, the financing and employment impacts of these 
 stabilizing instruments, and the regional characteristics 
 of business cycles. Proposed further research suggested 
 in the studies could include the identification of leading 
 indicators, determinants, and timing of regional busi- 
 ness cycles. 
 
 XI- 1 . Title: PSE in Perspective 
 Author: Robert F. Cook 
 Organization: The Brookings Institution 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 49 
 
 Draft copy available from Economic Re- 
 search Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To assess the fiscal and other im- 
 pacts of Public Service Employment on cities. 
 
 Method: Provides a comprehensive history of 
 Public Service Employment in the United 
 States, starting with the Works Progress Ad- 
 ministration (WPA) in 1935 and culminating 
 with the Emergency Jobs Program Extension 
 Act of 1976. The legislative objectives (decen- 
 tralization and decategorization, training, 
 transition, job creation, economic stimulus, 
 public service provision and targeting) are 
 then analyzed. Data are taken from various 
 Federal reports as well as prior Brookings In- 
 stitution studies. 
 
 Findings: To some extent Federal PSE funds 
 displace local funding. In this respect, PSE 
 operates as a countercyclical revenue sharing 
 scheme by relieving pressure on the local tax 
 base. This fiscal relief may operate as a 
 stimulus on the local private sector in that part 
 of their previous tax obligations may be 
 shifted to investment. It was also found that 
 Public Service Employment can be phased up 
 quickly and expenditure can begin almost im- 
 mediately. While the countercyclical benefits 
 of this are obvious it was also noted that it is 
 politically difficult to reduce or eliminate 
 funding as economic conditions may warrant. 
 The study predicts PSE will become an even 
 
 larger part of fiscal stimulus. There are, how- 
 ever, reasons why PSE is not well-suited as a 
 program of fiscal assistance. For example, 
 PSE is targeted at individuals of a locality 
 rather than the locality itself. Further, the 
 "spreading" effect (the leakage of money 
 from a distressed area) adversely affects the 
 goals of the program. The author concludes 
 by suggesting it may be better to have one 
 training program focused on the unemployed 
 and disadvantaged and another fiscal program 
 focused on distressed jurisdictions rather than 
 having a single program attempting to do 
 both. - 
 
 XI-2. Title: The Effect of Federal Countercyclical 
 Policies on Regional Economies 
 Author: Vernon L. Fahle 
 Date: December 1977 Pp.: 33 NTIS: PB 
 275 398 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To determine whether regional dif- 
 ferences in secular growth warrant additional 
 research into the relationship between Federal 
 countercyclical policy and regional cyclical be- 
 havior. 
 
 Method: Includes both a review of the litera- 
 ture on regional cycles and an empirical 
 analysis of the cyclical behavior of counties 
 with respect to changes in Federal economic 
 policy. The sample of 106 counties was di- 
 vided into two groups: higher growth regions 
 and slower growth regions. Counties which 
 grew equal to or less than the mean growth 
 rate for the period 1965 to 1974 were classified 
 as slow growth regions; those above the mean 
 were assigned to the faster growth category. 
 
 53 
 
The cyclical behavior of these two groups was 
 compared with each other and related to 
 Federal policy. The data used for this study 
 were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Eco- 
 nomic Analysis. 
 
 Findings: There are differences in the eco- 
 nomic cycles of counties which appear to be 
 associated with their secular growth rates. 
 Faster-growing regions respond more quickly 
 than slower-growing regions to expansionary 
 policies and less rapidly to contractionary 
 policies. More research on this relationship is 
 warranted. 
 
 XI-3. Title: The U.S. Economy, 1978-1982 
 
 Authors: Herman Kahn, Irving Leveson, and 
 
 Jimmy Wayne Wheeler 
 
 Organization: Hudson Institute 
 
 Date: May 1978 Pp.: 70 NTIS: PB 299 
 
 482 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To examine the issues facing the 
 U.S. economy from 1978 to 1982. 
 
 Method: Some of the themes discussed are: 
 social limits to growth, inflation issues, eco- 
 nomic prospects and scenarios 1978-1982, the 
 international economy, structural changes in 
 the U.S. economy, and theories of secular 
 cycles (e.g., Kondratief and Kuznets cycles). 
 These themes are elaborated upon in an out- 
 line format. Most of the data are taken from 
 Federal sources. 
 
 Findings: Anti-technology, anti-economic de- 
 velopment, and regulatory attitudes ("Health 
 and Safety Fascism") are imposing limits to 
 economic growth. This anti-growth mentality, 
 together with inflation, government 
 regulation, and international instability make 
 the economy far more fragile than in the past. 
 Some "Do's" for economic policy include: 
 slowing the rate of growth of the money 
 supply, deregulating oil and gas, removing un- 
 reasonable environmental restrictions, giving 
 business tax relief, cutting exise taxes to 
 reduce inflation, and indexing the personal 
 income tax to prevent the unplanned growth 
 of government. 
 
 XI-4. Title: Countercyclical Revenue Sharing 
 Author: John P. Ross 
 Date: June 1978 Pp.: 45 
 
 Draft copy available from Economic Re- 
 search Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purpose: To review the purpose, operation, 
 and impacts of the Anti-Recession Fiscal As- 
 sistance program (countercyclical revenue 
 sharing), with special emphasis on its effects 
 on large cities. 
 
 XI-5. 
 
 Method: Begins with a review of the legislative 
 purpose, as described in two reports prepared 
 by the sub-committee on Countercyclical As- 
 sistance of the Committee on Intergovernmen- 
 tal Relations. The program's functional aspect 
 is explored by an examination of the authori- 
 zation language and history. These indicate 
 the operational focus, success, and failures of 
 the program. Detailed statistics are given on 
 actual allocations to States and cities to show 
 potential program impact. Finally, the pro- 
 gram's impact is gauged against two criteria: 
 (1) purpose (degree to which program brings 
 local economic stabilization and interregional 
 balance in terms of employment); and (2) ef- 
 fectiveness (degree to which above goals are 
 achieved). To measure purpose, the author 
 uses the concept of fiscal leverage, a fiscal per- 
 formance index. Also, the paper estimates the 
 impact of inflation and recession on State and 
 local revenues to see if funds allocated were 
 truly countercyclical. A review of findings 
 from other studies is employed to determine 
 effectiveness. 
 
 Findings: The dual purposes of this program- 
 cushioning areas against recessionary impacts 
 and making local areas the agents of recovery- 
 conflict once recovery is underway. This con- 
 flict arises from the method of targeting funds 
 on the basis of unemployment rates. This 
 method is not able to distinguish structural 
 and cyclical employment problems. Hence, 
 the program has tended to supply funds to 
 large declining cities. This approach is not ef- 
 fective as a "countercyclical" measure once 
 recovery begins. As a substitute, Congress 
 could increase the large-city set-aside in the 
 General Revenue Sharing program once the 
 national unemployment rate declines. 
 
 Title: Public Works as a Countercyclical 
 
 Device: A Review of the Issues 
 
 Author: Roger J. Vaughan 
 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 
 Date: July 1976 Pp.: 114 NTIS: PB 257 
 
 064 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To define the theoretical, empirical 
 and policy issues associated with the develop- 
 ment and implementation of a program of 
 countercyclical public works. Also sum- 
 marizes what is known about these issues and 
 provides a framework for empirical work in 
 this area. 
 
 Method: Examines issues connected with the 
 use of public works projects as countercyclical 
 tools. Identities and describes business cycles 
 in their regional and sectoral dimensions. Also 
 discusses problems of financing public works 
 programs, estimating their direct and indirect 
 short-run and long-run employment effects 
 
 54 
 
XI-6. 
 
 and measuring their effectiveness vis-a-vis 
 alternate countercyclical measures. Numerous 
 practical implementation questions are also 
 discussed. 
 
 Data from the U.S. Department of Labor 
 and numerous other sources, as well as 
 theoretical studies by other researchers are 
 utilized. An appendix contains a comparison 
 of the economic impacts of government 
 spending with alternate methods of expen- 
 diture finance. 
 
 Findings: Countercyclical public works expen- 
 ditures, as an alternative to other stabilizing 
 instruments, offer the advantage of regional 
 targeting. In several other respects, however, 
 countercyclical public works are the least 
 desirable alternative. They are discretionary; 
 they are slow to start-up and stop; they may 
 increase tax burdens during recoveries; and 
 they may be substituted by localities for proj- 
 ects which would otherwise have been under- 
 taken. 
 
 As a countercyclical tool the main goal of 
 public works construction should be to create 
 facilities which will efficiently provide a flow 
 of services to the public. But those projects 
 which are most efficient may not generate the 
 largest increases in employment. Public works 
 may also induce inefficient migration between 
 regions, or may not provide employment to 
 low income groups. 
 
 Because regions differ in their responses to 
 national business cycles regarding timing, 
 amplitude and consistency, programs of 
 public works must be finely tailored to in- 
 dividual regions. 
 
 Public works normally produce no serious 
 materials bottlenecks when used counter- 
 cyclically because durable goods — a key in- 
 put — tend to exhibit strong positive cyclical 
 amplitude and lead the national cycle. But, to 
 the extent that public works lure workers away 
 from more productive employments, the 
 social cost is increased. 
 
 On average, public works produce eight 
 temporary jobs (lasting one year) per $100,000 
 of expenditures, and three permanent jobs per 
 $100,000 of in-place facility value. 
 
 Public Works as a Countercyclical Fiscal 
 
 Policy 
 
 Author: Georges Vernez 
 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 
 Z)a^: April 1977 Pp.: 12 
 
 Draft copy available free from Economic 
 Research Division, EDA, while supply lasts. 
 
 Purposes: To assess the job-creation effects 
 (both total and distributional) of alternative 
 public works investments. The study also iden- 
 tifies factors that might improve the design of 
 a countercyclical public works program. 
 
 XI-7. 
 
 Method: Estimates provided by econometric 
 studies (both Federal and private) are used to 
 assess the impact of various types of counter- 
 cyclical programs. Estimates are also provided 
 on the legislative response time required to 
 enact the various fiscal measures. 
 
 Findings: A personal income tax has the least 
 job-creating effect of any countercyclical 
 fiscal policy while public service employment 
 has the largest effect. For public service 
 employment to be most effective, the displace- 
 ment effect (any reduction of State and local 
 government expenditures due to the availabili- 
 ty of Federal funds) must be minimized. The 
 study also discovered a significant lag between 
 the time an economy enters a recession and the 
 legislative response to implement counter- 
 cyclical funds. Executive stand-by authority 
 may be necessary to alleviate this problem. A 
 public works program is not considered infla- 
 tionary because probable program magnitudes 
 fall far below the levels required to create ex- 
 cess labor demand in the major supplying in- 
 dustries. With respect to the distributional ef- 
 fects of a public works program, wide varia- 
 tions in employment cycles exist among States 
 and localities during any given national cycle. 
 Further, the response of a specific State or 
 locality often differs widely from one national 
 cycle to another. No single program can be ex- 
 pected to target effectively on all regions, in- 
 dustries and specific groups in the labor force. 
 
 Title: Assessment of Countercyclical Public 
 Works and Public Service Employment Pro- 
 grams 
 
 Authors: Georges Vernez and Roger Vaughan 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: September 1978 Pp.: 161 NTIS: PB 
 297 956 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: To assess the effects and relative ef- 
 ficacy of countercyclical public works and 
 public service employment programs. 
 
 Method: The scope and history of counter- 
 cyclical public works and public service 
 employment are discussed. The effects of 
 these programs on job creation, cyclical 
 unemployment, substitution and displacement 
 are compared. In addition, the distribution 
 and program effects, value of services, effects 
 on participants and supply constraints of both 
 programs are studied. 
 
 Available studies of the impact and evalua- 
 tion of countercyclical public works and 
 public service employment are utilized. In ad- 
 dition, data from the Bureau of Labor 
 Statistics, Bureau of the Census and the 
 Employment and Training Report of the 
 President are utilized. 
 
 55 
 
XI-8. 
 
 Findings: Neither public works nor public ser- 
 vice employment programs have a 
 demonstrable advantage in terms of net job 
 creation. Countercyclical public service 
 employment programs, however, create jobs 
 faster than public works programs. A main 
 cause of delay is legislative enactment. Public 
 works projects are concentrated in industries 
 that experience relatively large cyclical 
 amplitudes, whereas public service jobs are 
 located in the State and local public sectors 
 where this high cyclical amplitude is not ex- 
 perienced. The value of services provided by 
 both programs will be greater: 1) the more ef- 
 ficient the use of inputs in production; 2) the 
 lower the substitution of inputs; and 3) the 
 greater the demand for the services provided. 
 
 The long-run productivity benefits for par- 
 ticipants in either program appear to be 
 negligible. Most people leaving public service 
 employment have gone to government rather 
 than the private sector. Finally, there is no 
 evidence that either program has put infla- 
 tionary pressures on wages or prices. 
 
 Countercyclical public works and public 
 service employment show little stimulative ef- 
 fect on the economy in general. 
 
 Future research should be in the areas of: 
 measurement and projection of local counter- 
 cyclical needs and effects of countercyclical 
 programs. 
 
 Title: Regional Cycles and Employment Ef- 
 fects of Public Works Investments 
 Authors: Georges Vernez, Roger Vaughan, 
 Burke Burright, Sinclair Coleman 
 Organization: Rand Corporation 
 Date: January 1977 Pp.: 405 NTIS: PB 
 264 669 Price Code: A18 
 
 Purpose: To identify potential improvements 
 in the design of countercyclical public works 
 programs. Also seeks to formulate an agenda 
 of research on countercyclical policy. 
 
 Method: Describes the timing, duration, 
 amplitude, and severity of cycles in employ- 
 ment levels in all States and 149 labor market 
 areas (LMA's) during each of the five post- 
 1960 business cycles. Also provides estimates 
 of the direct, indirect, and total employment 
 effects of 22 types of public works projects. 
 Identifies those major supplying industries in 
 which bottlenecks might arise and the cor- 
 responding levels of expenditures. Finally, 
 assesses the extent to which countercyclical 
 public works investments would provide 
 employment opportunities for the cyclically 
 unemployed. 
 
 Findings: The effects of national business 
 cycles on local employment cycles vary widely 
 
 among States and LMA's. There are also wide 
 variations in the cyclical behavior of each 
 State and labor market area from one cycle to 
 another. Past experience in the timing of local 
 cycles at downturns and upturns of national 
 cycles is an inadequate guide to the timing of 
 local cycles in future national cycles. For now, 
 timing of countercyclical investments may best 
 be achieved by systematic monitoring of 
 monthly total and sectoral employment time- 
 series data. Further research is needed on the 
 identification of leading indicators or the 
 determinants of variations in the timing of 
 local cycles. 
 
 Countercyclical public works investments 
 can be effective in creating employment in 
 those industries and labor force categories 
 most affected by cyclical unemployment. 
 However, to provide employment op- 
 portunities to the young, who are more af- 
 fected by cyclical unemployment than are 
 older workers, some other countercyclical 
 program is likely to be more effective. Also, 
 public works may be inferior to public service 
 employment programs in serving local cyclical 
 needs. 
 
 With an appropriate mix of projects, a 
 countercyclical public works program of the 
 magnitude typically discussed in Congress is 
 unlikely to impose excess labor demand on 
 major supplying industries or on the con- 
 struction industry. Thus, inflationary 
 pressures are not likely to increase. 
 
 56 
 
XII. Structural Unemployment 
 
 Structural unemployment may occur when funda- 
 mental changes in the economy result in an excess 
 supply of skilled workers in declining industries or 
 areas. Structural unemployment may also result from 
 an influx of labor force participants who have fewer 
 skills than available jobs require. When workers lack re- 
 quired skills and cannot obtain them readily, they may 
 become chronically unemployed. Discrimination con- 
 tributes to labor market rigidities which exacerbate the 
 
 unemployment problems faced by many groups. Policy 
 responses may include retraining and affirmative action 
 together with local development assistance. 
 
 EDA research in this area has documented trends in 
 inequality, particularly in terms of employment and in- 
 come between whites and blacks, highlighted the need 
 for encouraging minority entrepreneurship, and studied 
 the problems and potential of vocational education as a 
 development tool. 
 
 XII- 1. Title: Relating Jobs to Training: A Model To 
 Improve Congruence of Vocational Educa- 
 tion and Current Job Practices 
 Author: Krishan K. Paul 
 Organization: The Urban Observatory of 
 Metropolitan Nashville and University 
 Centers 
 
 Date: December 1976 Pp.: 54 NTIS: PB 
 270 414 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: Explains the working of the 
 Relating Jobs to Training (RJT) Model. The 
 RJT is intended to aid in the development of 
 a systematic and continuous interface be- 
 tween vocational educators and employers, in 
 order to more closely match vocational train- 
 ing programs to local employment needs. 
 
 Method: The model includes the means to 
 identify both the needs of employers and 
 potential employees. For the employer, in- 
 puts into the model are employment projec- 
 tions, State and local economic plans, and 
 employer surveys. For the potential employ- 
 ees, inputs are assessments of schools and 
 training programs, samples of youths and 
 adults seeking employment and surveys of 
 potential employees. The result is a compila- 
 tion of employee needs. The model uses these 
 two results to identify the skill training, 
 career information, and guidance and 
 counseling which are necessary to produce 
 employable graduates from training pro- 
 grams. 
 
 Findings: The biggest problem in current 
 vocational education and training programs 
 
 is the lack of contact between program ad- 
 ministrators and prospective employers. Con- 
 sequently, program graduates are often ill- 
 suited to meet local needs. The RJT Model is 
 intended to act as an interface between these 
 two groups, making for a better match be- 
 tween jobs and those equipped to perform 
 them. 
 
 XII-2. Title: What Happens After Training: A 
 Review of Follow-Up of Vocational Gradu- 
 ates 
 
 Author: Krishan K. Paul 
 Organization: The Urban Observatory of 
 Metropolitan Nashville and University 
 Centers 
 
 Date: September 30, 1976 Pp.: 41 
 NTIS.PB 259 429 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess the scope and content of 
 follow-up evaluations of vocational educa- 
 tion graduates. The study also examines the 
 issues and trends in evaluation of vocational 
 education programs and their implications 
 for human resource development. 
 
 Method: Reviews and categorizes the evalua- 
 tion literature on vocational-education grad- 
 uates into four types of follow-up studies. 
 Studies are divided into: (1) administrative 
 reports, (2) comparative studies, (3) cost- 
 benefit analyses, and (4) process studies 
 related to the development of technology, in- 
 strumentation, data systems, methodologies, 
 and guides and manuals. Data taken from 
 
 57 
 
these studies are reported and evaluated. A 
 bibliography of 36 studies is also included as 
 are sample questionnaires sent to graduates 
 and employers. 
 
 Findings: Follow-up evaluation of graduates 
 is difficult due to the very decentralized 
 nature of vocational education in the United 
 States. Procedural as well as conceptual dif- 
 ficulties exist in all follow-up studies. Since 
 vocational education affects billions of 
 dollars and millions of people, an urgent need 
 exists to encourage and sponsor more re- 
 search effort at the State, regional and na- 
 tional levels. 
 
 XII-3. Title: Minority Business Enterprise Capital 
 Markets: An Analysis of Empirical Data, 
 Current Federal Intervention and Proposed 
 Innovations 
 
 Authors: Belden Daniels, Derek "Pete" 
 Hansen and Larry Litvak 
 Organization: Harvard University 
 Date: September 1978 Pp.: 69 NTIS: PB 
 297 670 Price Code: A04 
 
 Purpose: To explore the minority business 
 "capital gap": what it is, why it exists, and 
 how to alleviate it. 
 
 Method: The first section reviews the key lit- 
 erature on Minority Business Enterprise 
 (MBE) finance and the limited empirical 
 data. An annotated bibliography is attached. 
 The next section assesses the capacity of exist- 
 ing institutions to alleviate the MBE "capital 
 gap." 
 
 Findings: There is a capital market imperfec- 
 tion for those MBEs that supply goods and 
 services to the majority market. This capital 
 market failure has denied otherwise profit- 
 able MBEs access to adequate capital. For ef- 
 ficiency and equity reasons, these capital 
 market imperfections need to be corrected. 
 
 An experimental pilot program to provide 
 front-end capital support for a select number 
 of Minority Investment Companies is pro- 
 posed. This program would provide equity, 
 subordinated debt, and long-term develop- 
 ment loans to minority enterprises. This pro- 
 posal differs from the existing program in 
 that no government loans to investment com- 
 panies would be made. Rather, subordinated 
 loans would be made that could be converted 
 into an equity grant if targets were met for 
 employment, sales, employment of minorities 
 and location of the firm. 
 
 XII-4. Title: Economic Growth and Minority Entre- 
 preneurship 
 
 Author: Douglas P. Detterweich, James H. 
 Sills, Jr., and Francis X. Tannian 
 Organization: University of Delaware 
 Date: June 1977 Pp.: 103 NTIS.PB 273 
 495 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: Attempts to identify firms in New 
 Castle County, Delaware in which minority 
 entrepreneurs could reasonable expect to gain 
 future entry with moderate capital and tech- 
 nical knowledge. 
 
 Method: To identify and analyze growth and 
 potential growth industries in the county, the 
 authors consider seven industrial sectors 
 which potential entrepreneurs could enter: 
 construction; manufacturing; transportation 
 and public utilities; wholesale trade; retail 
 trade; finance, insurance and real estate; se- 
 lected services. These sectors are identified 
 from data on high-growth industry entries 
 and exits and on specific county firms in 
 high-growth sectors, showing growth in firm 
 sales and employment, locations of firms, 
 firms' performance over business cycles, etc. 
 Specific firms are surveyed to gather infor- 
 mation on attitudes towards minority entry. 
 The study mainly uses data from County 
 Business Patterns, the Delaware Department 
 of Labor, and surveys. 
 
 Findings: Sub-sectors within the seven se- 
 lected industry sectors are identified as 
 having potential for minority entrepreneur- 
 ship. The survey information shows key char- 
 acteristics and problems of the firms 
 surveyed. 
 
 The study concludes with a group of rec- 
 ommendations, mainly directed to the State, 
 on how minority entrepreneurs can be assist- 
 ed. The recommendations include establish- 
 ing minority entrepreneurship programs and 
 goals, helping to disseminate the findings of 
 this study, increasing the flows of private 
 capital and expertise to minority business ac- 
 tivities, etc. 
 
 XII-5. Title: Inequality in America: Research and 
 Policy Perspective on Race, Sex and Urban 
 Development 
 
 Author: Joan G. Haworth and David W. 
 Rasmussen, editors 
 Organization: Florida State University 
 Date: March 1976 Pp.: 183 NTIS: PB 257 
 152 Price Code: A09 
 
 Purpose: This volume presents the proceed- 
 ings of a conference held in Atlanta, Georgia 
 in May 1975, organized to explore the subject 
 of employment inequality and economic de- 
 velopment in the United States. 
 
 58 
 
Method: In this edited version, conference 
 papers are presented on earnings, productiv- 
 ity, and changes in employment discrimina- 
 tion during the sixties and urban agglomera- 
 tion economics and national urban policy. 
 Participants represented Florida State Uni- 
 versity, Auburn University, Florida State 
 government, the Council of Economic Ad- 
 visors, and the Urban Institute. 
 
 Findings: Success in reducing racial and sex- 
 ual employment discrimination has been 
 limited. Over the ten-year period 1960-1970, 
 the nonwhite-white earnings ratio increased 
 17.4 percent for males and 34 percent for 
 females. In the same period, however, the 
 median income of women was dropping rela- 
 tive to men. 
 
 The reasons for these changes vary. For 
 males, the key was worker characteristics. 
 Nonwhite males entering the labor force 
 tended to be younger and better educated, 
 having high relative earnings. Nonwhite 
 males exiting were older, with low relative 
 earnings. For females entering, white women 
 were primarily married and middle-aged. 
 Entering nonwhite women had fewer marital 
 constraints on their earnings capacity and ob- 
 tained jobs in the urban north. For the latter 
 group, these characteristics led to higher in- 
 comes. 
 
 Minorities and women frequently lose their 
 positions in seniority queues, or lose their 
 jobs or grow discouraged in seeking jobs, 
 during economic downturns. Thus, full em- 
 ployment policies help these groups. 
 
 Economic inequality exhibits distinct 
 spatial configurations: poverty is more pro- 
 nounced in small urban centers than large ur- 
 ban centers. Income differences among cities 
 of different sizes are due to agglomeration 
 economies of three types: (a) economies of 
 scale in consumption; (b) externalities in pro- 
 duction; and (c) opportunities for upward 
 mobility of disadvantaged groups. Empirical 
 work suggests that agglomeration gains are 
 frequently exaggerated. 
 
 4. Differential Impact of Economic Growth 
 on Minority Groups, NTIS: COM-75- 
 10610, 129 pp., Price Code: A07. 
 
 5. The Earnings Status of Urban Minorities, 
 NTIS: COM-75- 10627, 30 pp., Price 
 Code: A03. 
 
 6. The Economic Status of Urban 
 Mexican- Americans, NTIS: COM- 74- 
 1 1 65 1 , 23 pp. , Price Code: A03 . 
 
 7. The Economic Status of Urban 
 Minorities, NTIS: COM-74- 11646, 26 
 pp. , Price Code: A03 . 
 
 8. The Egalitarian Effects of Economic 
 Growth, NTIS: COM-75- 10628, 21 pp., 
 Price Code: A02. 
 
 9. The Redistribute >e Effects of Urban 
 Population Growth, NTIS: PB 256 637, 
 26 pp., Price Code: A03. 
 
 10. Urban Agglomeration Economies and 
 Their Implications for Regional Develop- 
 ment Policy, NTIS: COM-75- 10629, 50 
 pp., Price Code: A03. 
 
 11. Variation in Minority Business 
 Participation, NTIS: PB 256 638, 18 pp., 
 Price Code: A02. 
 
 Note: Earlier documents and working papers 
 completed for this project include: 
 
 1 . Changes in the Relative Economic Status 
 of Nonwhite Males During the 1960's, 
 Vol. I. NTIS: COM-75-10623, 53 pp., 
 Price Code: A04. 
 
 2. Changes in the Relative Economic Status 
 of Nonwhite Males During the 1960's, 
 Vol. II. NTIS: COM-75- 10624, 77 pp., 
 Price Code: A05. 
 
 3. Changes in the Relative Economic Status 
 of Women from I960 to 1970, NTIS: PB 
 257 772, 103 pp., Price Code: A06. 
 
 59 
 
XIII. Natural Disasters 
 
 When a natural disaster strikes, damage assessment, 
 relief assistance, and damage containment actions may 
 be taken. Relief assistance may be in the form of provi- 
 sion of goods and services, grant or loan assistance, or 
 the funding of public works projects. Damage contain- 
 ment may involve public works projects also, as well as 
 the relocation of potential victims. The success of all 
 such efforts, as well as the prevention of natural disas- 
 ters, requires careful planning, based on a knowledge of 
 past experiences. 
 
 The single study in this section lists the components of 
 effective management of droughts — a form of disaster 
 whose almost uniquely slow development lends itself to 
 thorough relief planning. Dealing with more common 
 sudden natural disasters and aiding their human and 
 business victims in the most effective way are not issues 
 of high national priority until one strikes. Appropriate 
 contingency planning for such unpredictable but re- 
 curring events as floods, tropical storms and earth- 
 quakes would assure more beneficial assistance when it 
 becomes needed. 
 
 XIII-1. Title: Managing Resource Scarcity: Lessons 
 from the Mid-Seventies Drought 
 Author: Phillip Burgess and Craig Liske, 
 eds. 
 
 Organization: Western Governors' Policy 
 Office for Policy Research (WESTPO) 
 Date: August 1978 Pp.: 89 NTIS: PB 297 
 627 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To gain a clearer understanding of 
 policy responses necessitated by a drought 
 and to delineate specific policy options 
 available to various levels of government. 
 
 Method: Several areas of drought manage- 
 ment are distinguished and discussed. These 
 include: (1) drought impacts and research 
 needs; (2) Federal and State adjustment poli- 
 cies and programs; (3) drought and emer- 
 gency preparedness; and (4) research needs 
 and utilization. The summary of a workshop 
 on drought management is included. 
 
 Findings: Droughts are "creeping 
 phenomena" that involve great uncertainty 
 and pose formidable management problems. 
 Effective drought management requires 
 preventive measures, forecasting capabilities 
 and contingency plans for mobilizing needed 
 resources for mitigation, relief, and recovery 
 operations. The issues involved in drought 
 management include a high level of re- 
 search, communication, technological 
 issues, public health and safety, weather 
 modification and forecast technology, and 
 ecosystem and ecological issues. 
 
 60 
 
XIV. Public Infrastructure 
 
 The development and maintenance of public capital 
 facilities is an economic activity essential to the quality 
 of life, health, and safety of citizens and to local and 
 area economic development. Urban and rural areas 
 alike share in the need to constantly generate new 
 facilities and to renovate and maintain older ones. 
 Crucial concerns in the development of public in- 
 
 frastructure include financing, timing, and the effects of 
 governmental regulations on the building and operation 
 of such facilities. 
 
 Recent EDA research in this area consists of an inven- 
 tory of municipal wastewater systems in the United 
 States and a study of the development effects of rural 
 water systems. 
 
 XIV- 1. Title: Report on Municipal and Industrial 
 Wastewater Treatment Systems: A Statis- 
 tical Compendium 
 
 Author: George Reid, Ralph Martin, and J. 
 Gordon Pulliam 
 
 Organization: University of Oklahoma and 
 Pulliam Associates 
 Date: June 1978 
 
 NTIS Number and Price Code listed below 
 for individual reports 
 
 Purpose: To inventory municipal wastewater 
 systems in the United States. 
 Method: For each city with over 2,000 popu- 
 lation in each State listed below, the report 
 describes the wastewater treatment facility, 
 its design capacity and actual flow, the facil- 
 ity improvements underway, grant and treat- 
 ment technology information, and the start- 
 ing date. The National Pollutant Discharge 
 Elimination System (NPDES) and Standard 
 Industrial Code (SIC) numbers, average 
 daily discharge (less than 50,000 gallons per 
 day or greater than 50,000 only), and owner- 
 ship type (public, private, etc.) are given for 
 each facility issued an NPDES permit. 
 
 State 
 
 NTIS 
 
 Price Code 
 
 Alabama 
 
 PB 291 049 
 
 A04 
 
 Alaska 
 
 PB 291 050 
 
 A03 
 
 Arizona 
 
 PB 291 051 
 
 A03 
 
 Arkansas 
 
 PB 291 052 
 
 A03 
 
 California 
 
 PB 921 053 
 
 A05 
 
 Colorado 
 
 PB 291 054 
 
 A03 
 
 Connecticut 
 
 PB 291 055 
 
 A03 
 
 Delaware 
 
 PB 291 056 
 
 A02 
 
 Florida 
 
 PB 291 057 
 
 A04 
 
 Georgia 
 
 PB 291 058 
 
 A04 
 
 State 
 
 NTIS 
 
 Price Code 
 
 Hawaii 
 
 PB 291 059 
 
 A02 
 
 Idaho 
 
 PB 291 060 
 
 A03 
 
 Illinois 
 
 PB 291 061 
 
 A07 
 
 Indiana 
 
 PB 291 062 
 
 A05 
 
 Iowa 
 
 PB 291 063 
 
 A04 
 
 Kansas 
 
 PB 291 064 
 
 A04 
 
 Kentucky 
 
 PB 291 065 
 
 A05 
 
 Louisiana 
 
 PB 291 066 
 
 A06 
 
 Maine 
 
 PB 291 067 
 
 A03 
 
 Maryland 
 
 PB 291 068 
 
 A04 
 
 Massachusetts 
 
 PB 291 069 
 
 A03 
 
 Michigan 
 
 PB 291 070 
 
 A05 
 
 Minnesota 
 
 PB 291 071 
 
 A04 
 
 Mississippi 
 
 PB 291 072 
 
 A04 
 
 Missouri 
 
 PB 291 073 
 
 A06 
 
 Montana 
 
 PB 291 074 
 
 A03 
 
 Nebraska 
 
 PB 291 075 
 
 A04 
 
 Nevada 
 
 PB 291 076 
 
 A02 
 
 New Hampshire 
 
 PB 291 077 
 
 A03 
 
 New Jersey 
 
 PB 291 078 
 
 A04 
 
 New Mexico 
 
 PB 291 079 
 
 A03 
 
 New York 
 
 PB 291 080 
 
 A06 
 
 North Carolina 
 
 PB 291 081 
 
 A05 
 
 North Dakota 
 
 PB 291 082 
 
 A03 
 
 Ohio 
 
 PB 291 083 
 
 A09 
 
 Oklahoma 
 
 PB 291 084 
 
 ACM 
 
 Oregon 
 
 PB 291 085 
 
 A03 
 
 Pennsylvania 
 
 PB 291 086 
 
 A08 
 
 Rhode Island 
 
 PB 291 087 
 
 A02 
 
 South Carolina 
 
 PB 291 088 
 
 A04 
 
 South Dakota 
 
 PB 291 089 
 
 A03 
 
 Tennessee 
 
 PB 291 090 
 
 A04 
 
 Texas 
 
 PB 291 091 
 
 A08 
 
 Utah 
 
 PB 291 092 
 
 A03 
 
 Vermont 
 
 PB 291 093 
 
 A03 
 
 Virginia 
 
 PB 291 094 
 
 A05 
 
 61 
 
State 
 
 NTIS 
 
 Price Code 
 
 Washington 
 
 PB 291 095 
 
 A04 
 
 West Virginia 
 
 PB 291 096 
 
 A05 
 
 Wisconsin 
 
 PB 291 097 
 
 A05 
 
 Wyoming 
 
 PB 291 098 
 
 A03 
 
 Complete Set 
 
 PB 291 048 
 
 $215.00 
 
 (50 volumes) 
 
 
 
 Each state is also available on microfiche. 
 The price code for microfiche is A01 . 
 
 Findings: N/A 
 
 XIV-2. Title: Impact of Rural Water Systems on 
 Rural Economic Development 
 Organization: National Rural Water As- 
 sociation 
 
 Date: 1978 Pp.: 91 NTIS: PB 301 
 428 Price Code: A05 
 
 Purpose: To review the present issues con- 
 cerning rural water systems and overall rural 
 economic development. 
 
 Method: The study includes a literature 
 review on the subject of rural water systems 
 and rural economic development and an 
 evaluation of statistical data availabilities 
 and needs. Federal water programs are 
 described, and Federal, State, and local re- 
 quirements for water systems are examined. 
 Two case studies of rural water programs, in 
 Oklahoma and North Carolina, are in- 
 cluded. 
 
 Findings: The economic impact of rural 
 water systems on rural development remains 
 difficult to measure due to the lack of 
 analytic studies and adequate quantitative 
 data concerning the problem. The case 
 studies do, however, indicate a significant 
 impact on rural growth patterns in rural 
 areas. Federal, State, and local legislation 
 have had positive and negative effects on the 
 development of rural water systems. Finan- 
 cial assistance programs have been of crucial 
 importance to rural water systems, but 
 various regulatory actions have introduced 
 conflicting requirements on safety, design 
 and construction, and operational issues. 
 The Farmers Home Administration will very 
 likely continue to determine the development 
 priorities for rural water systems based on 
 the economic viability of each individual ap- 
 plication rather than on economic develop- 
 ment criteria. 
 
 62 
 
XV. Other 
 
 XV- 1. Title: Selected Statistics on the Developing 
 USA 
 
 Author: Chi Ta W.Chen 
 Organization: Economic Development 
 Administration 
 
 Date: May 1977 Pp.: 121 NTIS: PB 270 
 980 Price Code: A06 
 
 Purpose: To compile historical, demographic 
 and economic indicators useful in analyzing 
 changing U.S. economic conditions. 
 
 Method: The statistics are compiled on a 
 State-by-State basis from as early as data 
 availability permits to 1975. The 18 separate 
 indicators include: State population, personal 
 income, per capita personal income, deposits 
 (all banks), construction employment, con- 
 struction contracts awarded, farm employ- 
 ment, farm income, nonfarm employment, 
 manufacturing employment, nonmanufactur- 
 ing employment, expenditures for new plants 
 and equipment, wages of production workers, 
 total retail sales, value added by manufacture, 
 petroleum production, coal production, and 
 electric power production. An indicator-by- 
 indicator portrayal is presented in the first sec- 
 tion; a State-by-State portrayal in the second 
 section. Included in the study is a bibliography 
 of the data sources involving approximately 
 two dozen publications. 
 
 Findings: N/A 
 
 XV-2. Title: EDA's Intern and Visiting Scholar Pro- 
 gram: A Policy Memorandum 
 Organization: The Lazar Institute 
 Date: October 1 , 1 976 Pp. : 9 
 
 Copies available from Economic Research 
 Division, EDA. 
 
 Purpose: To provide recommendations with 
 respect to the future of the EDA Intern and 
 Visiting Scholar Program. 
 
 Method: The study is based on the 1973 report 
 of Christopher Bladen of EDA, entitled Eval- 
 uation of EDA Research Program and case 
 studies of intern programs conducted by vari- 
 
 ous agencies. Three specific questions are ad- 
 dressed: (1) the effectiveness of the EDA In- 
 tern Program, (2) whether objectives could be 
 met through other means, and (3) the future 
 role of the research program (OER). 
 
 Findings: The OER Intern Program has 
 achieved substantial impact but at unneces- 
 sarily high costs. EDA should cease support 
 for the current intern program. A system of 
 financial compensation for interns should be 
 replaced by one based upon academic credit 
 incentives. This change would result in an 
 80% savings. OER should initiate a Fellow- 
 ship Program aimed at mid-career profession- 
 als interested in the economic development 
 field. 
 
 XV-3. Title: Bibliography of State-Directed Research 
 for Economic Development, 1969-1975 
 Author: Marvin B. Lind 
 Organization: Iowa Development Commis- 
 sion 
 
 Date: January 1976 Pp.: 151 NTIS: PB 
 254 231 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: To provide a bibliography of State- 
 directed research on economic development 
 published during 1969-1975. 
 
 Method: There are five sections in the bibliog- 
 raphy: research abstracts organized by State, a 
 directory of State development agencies, an 
 industrial directory, a listing of State statis- 
 tical abstracts, and miscellaneous publica- 
 tions. Classifications for research abstracts in- 
 clude: agriculture, forestry, fishing, 
 econometric models, economic data and pro- 
 jections, energy, industrial development and 
 natural resources, among others. The 
 bibliography was compiled by the author 
 under the guidance of the National Associa- 
 tion of State Development Agencies Research 
 Division and EDA. 
 
 Findings: N/A 
 
 63 
 
XV-4. Title: Bibliography of State-Directed Research 
 for Economic Development, 1971-1977 
 Author: Marvin B. Lind 
 Organization: Mid-States Research Services 
 Date: August 1978 Pp.: 174 NTIS: PB 297 
 747 Price Code: A08 
 
 Purpose: To serve as a "communication sys- 
 tem for the dissemination of information on 
 relevant (economic development) research." 
 To assist in analyzing and developing agency 
 programs. 
 
 Method: The project is largely a compilation 
 of abstracts on economic development re- 
 search supplied by various agencies (National 
 Association of State Development Agencies, 
 U.S. Travel Service, Title V Regional Com- 
 missions, and National Council for Urban 
 Economic Development). The abstracts are 
 categorized according to subject matter (eco- 
 nomic data, energy, industrial development, 
 international trade, natural resources, etc.). 
 Each abstract includes the study's title, author 
 and/or organization, date, pages, and sum- 
 mary. 
 
 Also included: a section specifying the con- 
 tributing individual State agencies as well as 
 sections updating State industrial directories 
 and the States' statistical abstracts. 
 
 Findings: N/A 
 
 companied by "growing pains." The South- 
 west Center for Economic and Community 
 Development can fill the need of analyzing 
 this regional change and directing the regional 
 development via sound growth-management 
 policies. 
 
 The economic and community development 
 of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area 
 will be the center's initial focus. In addition, 
 the impact of national economic policies and 
 legislation on the development of the South- 
 west will be studied by the center. Specific 
 projects to be undertaken include: the impact 
 of recent interregional migration on State and 
 local governmental financing patterns in the 
 Southwest, the impact of zoning policies on 
 the distribution of social life, the status of 
 women in the Southwest, and the relationship 
 between industrial growth and industrial link- 
 ages in the Southwest. 
 
 The center will rely heavily on Federal con- 
 tracts and grants for financial support. State 
 and local governmental agencies, foundations, 
 and corporations will also be important poten- 
 tial sources of funding. 
 
 XV-5. Title: The Feasibility of Establishing the 
 Southwest Center for Economic and Com- 
 munity Development 
 
 Author: Raymond P. Lutz and Bernard L. 
 Weinstein 
 
 Organization: The University of Texas 
 (Dallas) 
 
 Date: April 1977 Pp.: 45 NTIS: PB 268 
 228 Price Code: A03 
 
 Purpose: To assess the feasibility and poten- 
 tial role of the Southwest Center for Economic 
 and Community Development. 
 
 Method: An overview of the economic trends 
 in the Southwest is presented. Data from the 
 Bureau of the Census and Sales and Marketing 
 Management's 1976 Survey of Buying Power 
 are used to support the analysis. 
 
 The functions and objectives, administra- 
 tive structure, preliminary cost estimates, and 
 potential sources of funding for the Southwest 
 Center for Economic and Community Devel- 
 opment are highlighted. The Dallas Chamber 
 of Commerce's relationship with the center is 
 outlined. Finally, projects to be undertaken by 
 the center during its initial phase of operation 
 are presented. 
 
 Findings: The Southwest has displayed rapid 
 economic development which is likely to be ac- 
 
 64 
 
Addendum 
 
 Omitted Reports, EDA Reports Published in Book Form, 
 and Important New Reports from EDA 
 
 American Indian Economic Development, Sam 
 Stanley, Editor. Published by Moulton Pub. and 
 distributed by Aldine, Chicago, 1978, 595 pp. 
 
 Compilation of papers prepared under a grant to 
 the Smithsonian Institution. Analysis of the pro- 
 cess of economic development as it affects 
 American Indian communities. (Original report 
 available from NTIS: COM-74-11486-SET; con- 
 tact NTIS for price quote.) 
 
 Analysis of the Business Development Program, 
 SYSTAN, Inc., 1974. Volume I: A Strategy for 
 Program Implementation is an attempt to develop 
 a methodology for identification of industries 
 that are compatible with a particular EDA- 
 designated area. NTIS: PB 259 649, 64 pp., Price 
 Code: A04. Volume II. Further Refinement of 
 Subsidy Program focuses on industrial subsidy 
 evaluation. NTIS: PB 259 650, 77 pp., Price 
 Code: A05. 
 
 Assessing the Regional Economic Consequences 
 of Alternative Federal Policies, Steven Dresch, 
 Institute for Demographic and Economic Studies, 
 Inc., 1977. NTIS: PB 272 875, 77 pp., Price Code: 
 A05. 
 
 A description of IDIOM (Income Determination 
 Input-Output Model). IDIOM is basically an in- 
 teractive, inter-industry, national-regional policy 
 evaluation model. (See also: entry V-22.) 
 
 Balanced National Growth, edited by Kevin 
 Allen, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1979, 
 330 pp. 
 
 Collection of articles on European and Canadian 
 experiences in regional economic development in- 
 centive policy and how they may be applied to 
 U.S. policy options. (See entry 11-31.) 
 
 Bibliography of State-Directed Research for 
 Economic Development, 1970-76, Iowa Develop- 
 ment Commission, 1977. NTIS: PB 267 771, 185 
 pp., Price Code: A09. Second in the series; see en- 
 tries XV-3 and XV-4. 
 
 10. 
 
 11. 
 
 12. 
 
 Central City Economic Development, edited by 
 Benjamin Chinitz, Abt Books, Cambridge, MA, 
 1979, 187 pp. (Same as entry I- 1.) 
 
 A Conceptual Basis for the Study of Welfare 
 Reform, Dennis N. DeTray, Rand Corp., 1974. 
 NTIS: PB 258 184, 47 pp., Price Code: A03. 
 
 Outlines a general conceptual framework that can 
 be used to evaluate and analyze the specific but 
 related regional impacts of different welfare 
 reform packages. 
 
 The Declining Northeast: Demographic and 
 Economic Analysis, edited by Benjamin Chinitz. 
 Praeger Pub., New York, NY, 1978, 182 pp. 
 
 Collection of papers analyzing demographic and 
 economic events in the Northeast in the 1970's. 
 (See entry 1 1-6.) 
 
 Development Banking as a Mechanism for 
 Regional Revitalization, Martin T. Katzman, 
 1976. NTIS: PB 267 809, 30 pp., Price Code: 
 A03. 
 
 Makes recommendations on the organizational 
 structure, lending authorities, and charter of a na- 
 tional development bank. 
 
 Distributional Implications of Recreation-Led 
 Growth: Appalachia. University of North 
 Carolina, 1975. NTIS: PB 257 660, 142 pp. 
 
 The Economic Development Project: Final 
 Report to the United States Department of Com- 
 merce. LEGIS/50-The Center for Legislative Im- 
 provement, 1977. NTIS: PB 284 955, 44 pp., 
 Price Code: A03. 
 
 Summary of case studies on the role of State 
 legislative branch in formulating economic devel- 
 opment policies. 
 
 Economic Impact of Travel and Tourism in 
 Arkansas, University of Arkansas, 1977. NTIS: 
 PB 267 449, 32 pp., Price Code: A03. 
 
 65 
 
26. 
 
 27. 
 
 1 3 . The Economics of Southern Growth, edited by E . 24. 
 Blaine Liner and Lawrence K. Lynch, Seeman 
 Printery, Durham, NC, 1977. 243 pp. 
 
 Compilation of studies of recent Southern 
 growth. (Includes entries II— 3, -14, -18, -21, -22, 
 -23, and -25.) 
 
 14. Effects of Income Maintenance on Urban Fiscal 
 Problems, Harvard University, 1974. NTIS: 
 COM-75-11075,34. pp. 25. 
 
 15. Effects of Journey-to- Work Commuting on the 
 Development of Low-Income Areas, University 
 of Georgia, 1974. NTIS: COM-75-10746, 214 pp. 
 
 16. Employment and Income Growth in the 
 Southeast: Retrospect and Prospect, University of 
 Georgia, 1974. NTIS: COM-75- 10745, 24 pp. 
 
 17. Factor Mobility, Commodity Trade, and 
 Regional Growth: A Review of the Literature, 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1977. 
 NTIS: PB 80-151 103, 90 pp., Price Code: A05. 
 
 Review of basic neoclassical theories of factor 
 mobility and of existing regional econometric 
 models that deal with factor and commodity 
 mobility. 
 
 18. Factors Affecting Career Aspirations of 
 Employed Women, University of North Carolina, 
 1975. NTIS: PB 257 662, 130 pp. 
 
 19. Family Decisionmaking Over the Life Cycle: 
 Some Implications for Estimating the Effects of 
 Income Maintenance Programs, James P. Smith, 
 Rand Corp., 1973. 
 
 A theoretical model is used to predict and analyze 
 the expected labor supply effects of a Family 
 Assistance Plan (FAP). 
 
 20. Fiscal Crisis in American Cities: The Federal 
 Response, edited by L. Kenneth Hubbell. 
 Published by Ballinger Pub. Co., Cambridge, 
 MA, 1979. 350 pp. 
 
 Compilation of final versions of papers presented 
 at EDA-sponsored seminar on this subject. (See 
 entries: 1-2, -6, -12; IV-1, -2, -4; and XI- 1, -4, 
 and -6.) 
 
 2 1 . The Future of the U. S. and Its Regions: National 
 Trends and Influences, Hudson Institute, 1977. 
 NTIS: PB 265 144, 380 pp. 
 
 Statistical and analytical work. 
 
 22. Guide to County Census Data for Planning 
 Economic Development, U.S. Bureau of the 
 Census, 1979. NTIS: PB 300 768, 115 pp., Price 
 Code: A06. 
 
 23. Handbook for Community Economic 30. 
 Development, Syyed T. Mahmood and Amit K. 
 Ghosh, Community Research Group. NTIS: PB 
 80-147903, 334 pp., Price Code: A15. 
 
 "How to" for community economic develop- 
 ment. 
 
 28. 
 
 29. 
 
 Implications of Growth in the Service Economy 
 for Regional Economic Development and Plann- 
 ing, Jack Faucett Associates, 1975, NTIS: 
 COM-75-1061 1, 254 pp., price Code: A12. 
 
 Analysis of service industries for economic devel- 
 opment uses. Services may be able to assist areas 
 through import substitution but not act as any 
 catalyst for general development. 
 
 The Industrial Revenue Bond as a Financial 
 Attraction Device, Institute of International Law 
 and Economic Development, 1978. NTIS: PB 292 
 275, 321 pp. Price Code: A14. Literature review 
 also available: PB 80-142060, 262 pp., Price 
 Code: A12. 
 
 Analysis of industrial revenue bonds among 
 financial incentive instruments for economic de- 
 velopment: uses, authorities, role. 
 
 Jobs and Earnings for State Citizens: Monitoring 
 the Outcomes of State Economic Development 
 and Employment and Training Programs, 
 Richard E. Winnie, Harry P. Hatry and Virginia 
 B. Wright, The Urban Institute. NTIS: PB 273 
 698, 159 pp., Price Code: A08. 
 
 Develops and discusses impact measures of eco- 
 nomic and manpower activities of State govern- 
 ment. 
 
 Labor Supply and the Value of the Housewife's 
 Time, John F. Cogan, Rand Corp., 1975. NTIS: 
 PB 258 183, 56 pp., Price Code: A04. 
 
 Several alternative procedures for estimating the 
 value of the nonworking married woman's time 
 are examined and compared. 
 
 Local Economic Development, Curtis H. Martin 
 and Robert A. Leone, Lexington Books, Lex- 
 ington, MA, 1977, 132 pp. (Grant was to the Na- 
 tional Bureau of Economic Research; original 
 report entitled Analysis of Federal Economic De- 
 velopment Programs available from NTIS: PB 
 262 773, 330 pp., Price Code: A15.) 
 
 Analysis of Federal efforts to stimulate regional 
 growth in the context of their legislative and in- 
 tellectual histories and in light of changing na- 
 tional economic development objectives. Con- 
 tains history of EDA. 
 
 Manufacturing Plant Characteristics, 1970, U.S. 
 Bureau of the Census, 1973. NTIS: 
 COM-73-90034, 465 pp. 
 
 Survey to identify the locational and operating 
 characteristics of plants in operation in 1970. See 
 also: entry VI-3, a companion survey. 
 
 Migration and Economic Change in Predominate- 
 ly Black Counties, 1970-1974, William L. 
 Henderson, 1976. NTIS: PB 298 878, 207 pp., 
 Price Code: A10. 
 
 Review paper on economic conditions in 
 counties in the South. 
 
 100 
 
 66 
 
3 1 . Multiregional Multipliers for Massachusetts and 
 New England, Massachusetts Institute of 
 Technology, 1977. NTIS: PB 80-158082, 41 pp., 
 Price Code: A03. 
 
 A general description of the MRIO (Multiregional 
 Input-Output Model) and an interpretation of the 
 multiplier with the MRIO framework. 
 
 32. "New Directions in Federal Economic 
 Development Programs," published in Explora- 
 tions in Economic Research, Occasional Papers 
 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, v. 
 4, no. 3, Summer 1977. NTIS: PB 80-152887, 134 
 pp., Price Code: A07. 
 
 Papers presented at Conference on New Direc- 
 tions in Federal Economic Development, 
 Williamsburg, VA, November 30-December 1, 
 1973. 
 
 33. On Hirschman, Linkages and Empirical Results, 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1977. 
 NTIS: PB 80-150915, 23 pp., Price Code: A02. 
 
 An empirical test of Hirschman's unbalanced 
 growth hypothesis is reviewed. 
 
 34. Preliminary Listing of Municipal Water Supply 
 Capacities, Oklahoma Foundation for Research 
 and Development Utilization, Inc., 1976. NTIS: 
 PB 259 495, 234 pp., Price Code: All. 
 
 Data on water supply capacities in all U.S. com- 
 munities with a serviced population of over 2,000. 
 
 35. Regional Impacts of Rising Energy Prices, 
 William K. Miernyk, Frank Giarratani, and 
 Charles F. Socher. Ballinger Pub. Co., Cam- 
 bridge, MA, 1978, 108 pp. 
 
 Collection of related essays which examine the ef- 
 fects of rising energy prices from several different 
 approaches. (Same as entry IX-6.) 
 
 36. Southern Regional Research and Information 
 Program, Southern Growth Policies Board, 1978, 
 NTIS: PB 283 898, 124 pp., Price Code: A06. 
 
 Constructs an economic development research 
 strategy for the South. 
 
 37. What Should America's Housing Policy Be? 
 Harvard University, 1974. NTIS: COM-74- 
 11653,42 pp. 
 
 Discussion of U.S. housing policy. 
 
 67 
 
68 
 
FY 1979 Research Grants 
 
 Classification/ Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 Anticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 I. Urban 
 
 1. "Economic Transformation in Selected 
 American Cities: A Study of Processes 
 with Implications for Development 
 Policy" (Applied) 
 
 2. Transfer of funds for performing research 
 and dissemination tasks in selected cities of 
 the Commerce/Cities Project (Applied) 
 
 3. Research for an "Independent Analysis of 
 New York City's Long-Term Policies" 
 (Applied) 
 
 4. Prepare research papers on priority issues 
 in urban economic development and 
 develop strategies on selected priority 
 topics identified in those papers (Applied) 
 
 5 . Research on the effects of environmental 
 conditions and environmental policies on 
 the geographical distributions and levels of 
 economic activity within and among urban 
 areas. (Applied) 
 
 6. Research on critical determinants of urban 
 economic distress (Applied) 
 
 7. Supplemental funding to complete FY 78 
 "Indicators for Local Economic Develop- 
 ment" (State-of-the-art) 
 
 8. Research on data inventory for urban 
 economic development (State-of-the-art) 
 
 9. Conference for exploring issues and 
 problems of urban economic development 
 for the State of Kentucky's urban centers 
 and to plan for their growth (State-of-the- 
 art) 
 
 Columbia University 
 
 U.S. Bureau of the Census 
 
 Center for New York City Affairs 
 
 Public Technology, Inc. 
 
 The Urban Institute 
 
 12/28/80 
 
 12/1/80 
 
 11/2/80 
 
 8/9/80 
 
 5/16/80 
 
 The Urban Institute 
 
 National League of Cities 
 
 National League of Cities 
 
 (Kentucky) Governor's Economic 
 Development Commission and 
 Kentucky Development Cabinet 
 
 12/1/80 
 
 8/6/79 
 
 11/14/80 
 
 11/2/79 
 
 //. Regional 
 
 1 . "Migration and Industrial Location: Their Arizona State University (Greenwood) 
 Interaction in Small Regional Economies" 
 
 (Basic) 
 
 2. Transfer for Continuous Work History U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 
 Sample (CWHS) for expanded data base 
 
 (Basic) 
 
 8/31/80 
 
 12/31/80 
 
 69 
 
Classification/ Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 Anticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 3. "Long-Run Trends, Determinants, and 
 Policy Implications Related to Regional 
 Economic Development" (Basic) 
 
 4. "Economic Impact of the Program of the 
 Economic Development Administration" 
 (Applied) 
 
 5. To complete project and prepare final 
 report on "Private Investment, Public 
 Policy, and the Decline of Older Regions: 
 An Analysis of the New England 
 Economy" (Applied) 
 
 6. To complete report on Northeastern States 
 and to perform background research in 
 preparation for forming an alliance be- 
 tween business, government, and labor 
 (Applied) 
 
 7. Research on business-labor cooperation 
 component of the Northeast Economic 
 Development Strategy of CONEG (Ap- 
 plied) 
 
 8. To conduct three research and 
 dissemination projects: 1) research on in- 
 frastructure needs in the region; 2) exten- 
 sion of research for leadership in local and 
 regional economic development activities; 
 and 3) research on impact of the Multi- 
 lateral Trade Adjustments (Applied) 
 
 9. To complete research on Phase I of "The 
 Southern Index" (Applied) 
 
 10. Phase II of "The Southern Index" 
 (Applied) 
 
 1 1 . Establish and operate a system for "Policy 
 Research Information Management and 
 Evaluation" (Applied) 
 
 12. Arrangements and background papers for 
 the U.S. visit of the OECD Working Party 
 on Regional Development (State-of-the- 
 art) 
 
 13. Supplemental funding to assist OECD 
 Working Party on Regional Development 
 to undertake a research seminar (State-of- 
 the-art) 
 
 University of Oklahoma (Hibdon) 
 
 12/28/80 
 
 University of South Carolina (Martin) 4/8/80 
 
 Harvard University (Harrison) 
 
 4/31/80 
 
 Coalition of Northeastern 
 Governors' Policy Research 
 Center, Inc. (CONEG) 
 
 CONEG 
 
 Northeast-Midwest Institute 
 
 7/15/79 
 
 3/28/80 
 
 10/5/80 
 
 Southern Growth Policies Board 
 
 Southern Growth Policies Board 
 
 Western Governors' Policy 
 Office (WESTPO) 
 
 12/30/79 
 
 3/28/81 
 
 12/28/80 
 
 Academy for Contemporary Problems 7/30/80 
 
 Academy for Contemporary Problems 1 2/3 1 /80 
 
 ///. Rural 
 
 To "Identify and Conceptualize Elements 
 for a Rural Economic Development 
 Policy" (State-of-the-art) 
 
 National Rural Center 
 
 11/15/80 
 
 IV. Fiscal 
 
 1 . "A Study of the Impact of Tax Incentives 
 on Economic Development" (Applied) 
 
 2. To conduct "A Study of the Fiscal 
 Benefits of Adaptive Use and Historic 
 Preservation" (Applied) 
 
 UDI Associates 
 
 Stephens Associates 
 
 7/1/81 
 6/26/79 
 
 70 
 
Classification/ Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 Anticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 V. Development Planning 
 
 6. 
 
 8. 
 
 10. 
 
 11. 
 
 12. 
 
 13. 
 
 Background study and design a prototype 
 economic impact analysis, reporting and 
 evaluation system containing a model eco- 
 nomic impact statement (Basic) 
 To complete a study of "Planning for 
 Regional Economic Development" (Basic) 
 To perform additional tasks related to 
 "Planning for Regional Economic Devel- 
 opment" (Basic) 
 
 "Development of the Interregional 
 Model" (Basic) 
 
 Transfer of funds for participation in 
 Interagency Domestic Information Display 
 System Project (DIDS) (Basic) 
 To demonstrate in the Southern 
 Alleghenies Economic Development 
 District how a geographically detailed 
 multicounty data base can be developed 
 and used to guide public investment deci- 
 sions (Applied) 
 
 Sponsor a series of workshops and prepare 
 research papers on strengthening the 
 States' role in economic and community 
 development and business finance (Ap- 
 plied) 
 
 To complete a study on the role of the arts 
 on economic development, employment, 
 tourism and industrial location (Applied) 
 Supplemental funding to provide for a 
 wider, more effective dissemination of 
 research findings under the present grant, 
 "State Economic Policy Formulation" 
 (Applied) 
 
 Additional research, dissemination, and 
 staff advisory activities focused on 
 strengthening the States' role in subna- 
 tional economic development (Applied) 
 
 'Handbook 
 
 Development" 
 
 for Regional 
 (State-of-the- 
 
 Formulate 
 Economic 
 art) 
 
 Continued assistance for producing the 
 series "State Quarterly Economic Devel- 
 opments" (State-of-the-art) 
 "Western Regional Conference to 
 Strengthen Economic Development 
 Through State and Resource-Sharing" 
 (State-of-the-art) 
 
 Economica, Inc. 
 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
 
 (Polenske) 
 MIT(Polenske) 
 
 Jack Faucett Associates 
 
 NASA— DIDS Project 
 
 International Data and Development, 
 Inc. 
 
 1/31/80 
 
 3/22/80 
 3/22/80 
 
 12/31/80 
 9/30/79 
 
 12/19/80 
 
 National Council for Urban Economic 
 Development (CUED) 
 
 New England Foundation for the Arts, 
 Inc. 
 
 Council of State Planning Agencies 
 (CSPA) 
 
 CSPA 
 
 National Educational Institute for 
 Economic Development (NEIED) 
 
 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 
 
 Western Interstate Commission for 
 Higher Education (WICHE) 
 
 3/31/80 
 
 2/1/80 
 
 1/31/80 
 
 9/1/80 
 
 3/31/81 
 
 12/30/79 
 
 9/26/80 
 
 VI. Business Development 
 
 1. Research on "Firm Behavior as a Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
 Determinant of Economic Change" (Birch) 
 (Basic) 
 
 4/30/80 
 
 71 
 
Classification/ Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 A nticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 2. Work on how EDA's business 
 development program can be more effec- 
 tively used to promote permanent jobs in 
 distressed areas (Applied) 
 
 3. An analysis of the revised proposal for a 
 National Development Bank to be housed 
 in an expanded EDA Business Develop- 
 ment Program (Applied) 
 
 4. "A Three-Part Study Investigating the 
 Roles of Small Firms and Certain Kinds of 
 Mature Firms in Domestic Economic 
 Development" (Applied) 
 
 5. A review of public sector business 
 assistance programs (Applied) 
 
 6. Prepare report analyzing business 
 involvement in local economic develop- 
 ment in both headquarters and branch 
 plant communities (State-of-the-art) 
 
 7. To assess and classify the market demand 
 for EDA's expanded business finance pro- 
 gram and to help design an appropriate 
 delivery system (State-of-the-art) 
 
 8. Analysis of policy implications of 
 government assistance for the financing of 
 new, small firms (State-of-the-art) 
 
 9. To sponsor several conferences on 
 development financing issues, commission 
 and distribute research papers on said 
 issues, and prepare for distribution pro- 
 ceedings of each conference (State-of-the- 
 art) 
 
 10. To produce a series of short option/issue 
 papers on business finance to achieve local 
 economic development (State-of-the-art) 
 
 Reid H. Ewing 
 
 BeldenH. Daniels 
 
 National Rural Center (Daniels) 
 
 Margaret E. Comes 
 Conference Board 
 
 Donald I. Kane Associates 
 
 Charles T. Haworth 
 
 Corporation for Public/Private 
 Ventures 
 
 3/31/80 
 
 8/30/79 
 
 12/28/80 
 
 7/30/79 
 12/28/80 
 
 1/15/80 
 
 2/28/80 
 12/28/80 
 
 The Urban Institute 
 
 8/29/80 
 
 VII. Sectoral Analysis 
 
 "Sectoral Analysis of U.S. Earnings 
 Growth: With Implications for Minority 
 Development" (Basic) 
 A series of issue papers on economic ad- 
 justment (State-of-the-art) 
 
 American University 
 
 Margaret E. Comes 
 
 12/1/80 
 
 11/31/79 
 
 VIII. Regulation 
 
 Prepare and publish a summary/analysis 
 of LEGIS/50's private sector seminar on 
 governmental regulation (State-of-the-art) 
 
 LEGIS/50-Center for Legislative 
 Improvement 
 
 10/28/79 
 
 IX. Natural Resources 
 
 1 . Transfer of funds to U.S. Corps of 
 Engineers for their work on High Plains 
 Project (Applied) 
 
 2. Transfer of funds for High Plains Project 
 contract (Applied) 
 
 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 
 
 Camp, Dresser & McKee 
 
 8/31/79 
 
 3/31/82 
 
 72 
 
Classification /Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 A nticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 3 . Air Quality-Water Project (Applied) 
 
 4 . Air Quality-Water Project (Applied) 
 
 5 . Air Quality- Water Project (Applied) 
 
 6 . Air Quality-Water Project (Applied) 
 
 7 . Air Quality- Water Project (Applied) 
 
 8 . Air Quality-Water Project (Applied) 
 
 9 . Air Quality- Water Project (Applied) 
 
 10. Air Quality-Water Project (Applied) 
 
 1 1 . Supplemental funding to provide for the 
 organization of an Energy Congress and to 
 prepare and disseminate a "New England 
 Blueprint for Energy Action" (State-of- 
 the-art) 
 
 Boston, MA 
 
 5/30/81 
 
 Buffalo, NY 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Chicago, IL 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Elizabeth, NJ 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 St. Paul-Minneapolis, MN 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Philadelphia, PA 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Portland, OR 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Waterbury, CT 
 
 5/31/81 
 
 Tufts University 
 
 6/30/79 
 
 X. Rapid Growth/ Boom Towns 
 
 XL Cyclical Unemployment 
 
 "A Preliminary Study of Trigger Formulas Rutgers University, Center for Interna- 
 for Public Works Expenditures" tional Business Cycle Research 
 
 (Applied) (Moore) 
 
 12/30/79 
 
 XII. Structural Unemployment 
 
 1. "The Effect of Growth on Under- 
 employment and Poverty in American 
 Cities" (Applied) 
 
 2. "Targeting on the Unemployed" 
 (Applied) 
 
 3. Supplemental funding for "Targeting on 
 the Unemployed" (Applied) 
 
 4. Background study of "Program Exhibit- 
 ing Manpower and Economic Develop- 
 ment Linkages, Impact Analysis, Report- 
 ing and Evaluation System — Containing a 
 Model Economic Impact Statement" 
 (State-of-the-art) 
 
 National Economic Research Institute 12/28/80 
 
 University of Texas at Austin 
 
 (Salinas) 
 University of Texas at Austin 
 
 (Salinas) 
 Anne L. Gould 
 
 12/1/80 
 12/1/80 
 10/8/79 
 
 XIII. Natural Disasters 
 
 XIV. Public Infrastructure 
 
 1 . Prepare a study design on capital 
 infrastructure needs of the New York 
 Region over the next decade (Basic) 
 
 2. Paper on "History of Public Works in 
 America, 1790 to 1970" (Basic) 
 
 3 . Assistance for water sewer development in 
 low income rural areas (Applied) 
 
 Regional Plan Association of 
 New York 
 
 Mark Aldrich 
 
 National Demonstration Water 
 Project, Inc. 
 
 3/28/80 
 
 12/1/80 
 10/23/80 
 
 73 
 
Classification/ Subject 
 
 Grantee 
 
 Anticipated 
 Due Date 
 
 XV. Other (e.g., Training) 
 
 1 . Regional Science Association's Sixth An- 
 nual Dissertation Competition (Basic) 
 
 2 . Supplemental funding to conduct a set of 8 
 regional seminars concerned with more 
 effective utilization of the Handbook for 
 Evaluating Economic Development (State- 
 of-the-art) 
 
 3. To provide comprehensive training in the 
 field of business development and finance 
 and program evaluation to nonmetropoli- 
 tan development organizations' profes- 
 sional and support staffs (State-of-the-art) 
 
 4. Annotation of existing EDA research 
 studies (State-of-the-art) 
 
 5. "EDA Research: An Annotated Bibliog- 
 raphy" (State-of-the-art) 
 
 6. To establish an "Economic Development 
 Graduate Fellowship Program" in the 
 field of economic development (Training) 
 
 7. Supplemental funding for preparation of 
 research papers by 13 graduate fellows 
 (Training) 
 
 8. Evaluate the research capabilities of 
 minority academic institutions and private 
 sector organizations (Training) 
 
 9. Internship program (Training) 
 
 10. To continue and expand the Southern 
 Economic Development Intern Program 
 (Training) 
 
 1 1 . Internship program (Training) 
 
 1 2 . Internship program (Training) 
 
 Regional Science Association 8/29/80 
 
 American Industrial Development 5/29/80 
 
 Council/Education Foundation 
 (AIDC/EF) 
 
 National Educational Institute for 12/28/80 
 
 Economic Development (NEIED) 
 
 Vista Research Institute 7/26/79 
 
 Vista Research Institute 11/1 7/79 
 
 National Institute of Public 3/3 1 /80 
 
 Management 
 
 National Institute of Public 3/3 1 /80 
 
 Management 
 
 National Institute of Public 2/29/80 
 
 Management 
 
 Midwestern Corporation for Resource 3/31 /79 
 
 Development 
 
 National Society for Internships 6/27/80 
 
 and Experiential Education 
 
 Western Interstate Commission for 3/31/80 
 
 Higher Education (WICHE) 
 Education Development Center (EDC) 3/31/80 
 
 74 
 
How To Order the Research Studies of the Economic Research Division of the 
 
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 A few of the reports listed in this bibliography are still 
 available free from the Economic Research Division of 
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 indicated are still available and that NTIS numbers must 
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 77 
 
Title Index 
 
 American Indian Economic Development, 65 
 Analysis of the Business Development Program, 65 
 Analysis of Federal Economic Development Programs, 66 
 Arkansas Basin Chloride Control Project: A Critical Evalua- 
 tion of Regional Effects, 21 
 Assessing the Regional Economic Consequences of Alterna- 
 tive Federal Policies, 65 
 Assessment of Countercyclical Public Works and Public Ser- 
 vice Employment Programs, 55 
 
 Balanced Growth for the Northeast, 17 
 
 Balanced National Growth, 18, 65 
 
 Bibliography of State-Directed Research for Economic 
 
 Development, 1969-1975,63 
 Bibliography of State-Directed Research for Economic 
 
 Development, 1970-1976,65 
 Bibliography of State-Directed Research for Economic 
 
 Development, 1971-1977,64 
 Block Grants for Community Development: Decentralized 
 
 Decisionmaking, 1 
 Bridges to the Future: Forces Impacting Urban Economies, 6 
 
 Capability of Transportation and Distribution Systems to 
 Respond to Regional Growth, 27 
 
 The Cause and Quality of Southern Growth, 1 6 
 
 Central City Economic Development, 1 , 65 
 
 Changes in the Relative Economic Status of Nonwhite Males 
 During the 1960's, 59 
 
 Changes in the Relative Economic Status of Women from 
 1960 to 1970,59 
 
 The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of Non- 
 metropolitan Areas in the 1970's, 21 
 
 The Changing Structure of the Southern Economy, 1 5 
 
 Comments on Kelso's "Two Factor Theory" and Employee 
 Stock Option Programs (ESOP's), 40 
 
 Composite Mapping System, 32 
 
 A Conceptual Basis for Study of Welfare Reform, 65 
 
 Conflicts in Federal Subnational Development Programs — 
 An Analysis with Recommendations, 36 
 
 Countercyclical Revenue Sharing, 54 
 
 The Decline of New York in the 1 970's, 9 
 
 The Declining Northeast: Demographic and Economic 
 Analyses, 9, 65 
 
 Demographic Structure and Implications of Recent Non- 
 metropolitan Growth: Synthesis of Previous Research, 21 
 
 Development Banking and Financial Incentives for the Pri- 
 vate Sector, 3 
 
 Development Banking as a Mechanism for Regional Revital- 
 ization, 65 
 
 Development Patterns and Potentials of Selected Distressed 
 Areas, 9 
 
 The Development of a Subnational Economic Development 
 Policy, 28 
 
 Differential Impact of Economic Growth on Minority 
 Groups, 59 
 
 Discussion of Relevance of BEA Areas to the Economic 
 
 Development Administration, 33 
 Distributional Implications of Recreation-Led Growth: 
 
 Appalachia, 65 
 Documenting the "Decline" of the North, 12 
 
 EDA's Intern and Visiting Scholar Program: A Policy 
 Memorandum, 63 
 
 Earnings Status of Urban Minorities, 59 
 
 The Economic Development Context of Population Distribu- 
 tion Issues, 5 
 
 The Economic Development Project: Final Report to the 
 United States Department of Commerce, 65 
 
 Economic Development Through State Planning, 30 
 
 Economic Growth and Minority Entrepreneurship, 58 
 
 The Economic Impact on Local Areas of the Program of the 
 Economic Development Administration, 1 1 
 
 Economic Impact of Travel and Tourism in Arkansas, 65 
 
 Economic Research Studies of the Economic Development 
 Administration: An Annotated Bibliography, 1965-1973, 
 viii, 75 
 
 The Economic Status of Urban Mexican-Americans, 59 
 
 The Economic Status of Urban Minorities, 59 
 
 Economic Transition of Distressed Communities, 8 
 
 The Economics of Southern Growth, 66 
 
 The Effect of Federal Countercyclical Policies on Regional 
 Economies, 53 
 
 Effectiveness of Financial Incentives on Investments in the 
 Economic Development Administration's Designated 
 Areas, 39 
 
 Effects of Environmental Protection Regulation on Regional 
 Economic Development, 45 
 
 Effects of Income Maintenance on Urban Fiscal Problems, 66 
 
 Effects of Journey-to- Work Commuting on the Development 
 of Low-Income Areas, 66 
 
 The Egalitarian Effects of Economic Growth, 59 
 
 Employment and Income Growth in the Southeast: Retro- 
 spect and Prospect, 66 
 
 Energy Availabilities for State and Local Development, 47 
 
 Energy for the Growing South, 48 
 
 Energy and Income in Arkansas, 49 
 
 Energy: The New Economic Development Wildcard, 47 
 
 Establishing a National Development Bank, 38 
 
 Evaluating Economic Development Programs: A Method- 
 ology Handbook, 31 
 
 Evaluation of State Planning, 3 1 
 
 An Examination of the Use of Labor Force Data in Targeted 
 Subnational Economic Development Policy, 33 
 
 Executive Summary of the Atlantic Conference on Balanced 
 Regional Growth, January 4-6, 1978, Racine, Wisconsin, 
 18 
 
 Factor Mobility, Commodity Trade, and Regional Growth: A 
 
 Review of the Literature, 66 
 Factors Affecting Career Aspirations of Employed Women, 
 
 66 
 
 79 
 
Family Decisionmaking Over the Life Cycle: Some Implica- 
 tions for Estimating the Effects of Income Maintenance 
 Programs, 66 
 
 The Feasibility of Establishing a Southwest Center for 
 Economic and Community Development, 64 
 
 Federal Policy and the Fiscal Outlook for Cities, 23 
 
 Federal and Regional Responses to the Economic Decline of 
 the Northern Industrial Tier, 13 
 
 The Federal Response to the Fiscal Crisis in American Cities, 
 24 
 
 Financing the South's Economic Expansion, 12 
 
 Fiscal Crisis in American Cities: The Federal Response, 66 
 
 The Fiscal Impact of Regional Malls on Central Business 
 Districts in Small Cities, 5 
 
 Fiscal Impacts of Economic Activity Generated by Economic 
 Development Grants: A Discussion of Possible Research 
 Methodologies and a Review of the Literature, 24 
 
 The Fiscal Implications of Social Welfare Programs: Can 
 They Help the Cities?, 23 
 
 A Fourth Stage in National Development? An Assessment of 
 Research Issues Relevant to Economic Development, 34 
 
 The Functional Concept of Resources for Economic Develop- 
 ment Purposes: A Framework for Analysis of Resource Use 
 and Development, 28 
 
 The Future of the South's Economy, 8, 15, 16, 25, 48 
 
 The Future of the U.S. and Its Regions: National Trends and 
 Influences, 66 
 
 Geocoding Data for Display and Policy Analysis: Volume I — 
 The Potential of the ACCESS Process re Energy, Environ- 
 ment and the Economy, 29 
 
 Geocoding Data for Display and Policy Analysis: Volume 
 II — Technology from the User Perspective, 29 
 
 Guide to County Census Data for Planning Economic 
 Development, 66 
 
 Handbook for Community Economic Development, 66 
 Human Resource and Regional Economic Development, 27 
 
 IDIOM II: A User's Manual, 34 
 
 Impact of Rural Water Systems on Rural Economic Develop- 
 ment, 62 
 
 The Impact of Vocational and Technical Education on Man- 
 power and Economic Development, 18 
 
 Implications of Growth in the Service Economy for Regional 
 Development Strategies and Planning, 66 
 
 Income Distribution in the South, 15 
 
 Industrial Invasion of Nonmetropolitan America, 22 
 
 Industrial Location Determinants, 1971-1975, 39 
 
 The Industrial Revenue Bond as a Financial Attraction 
 Device, 66 
 
 Inequality in America: Research and Policy Perspective on 
 Race, Sex, and Urban Development, 58 
 
 An Initial Exploration of the Relationships Between Indus- 
 trial Composition and Urban Economic Distress, 4 
 
 Intergovernmental Cooperation and Subnational Develop- 
 ment Problems: A Synthesis of Relevant Research Find- 
 ings, 35 
 
 Issues in the Economic Development of Nonmetropolitan 
 United States, 20 
 
 Jobs and Earnings for State Citizens: Monitoring the Out- 
 comes of State Economic Development and Training Pro- 
 grams, 66 
 
 Labor Market Considerations in Economic Development 
 Planning, 33 
 
 Labor Supply and the Value of the Housewife's Time, 66 
 Local Economic Development, 66 
 
 Making Local Economic Development Decisions: A Frame- 
 work for Local Officials, 36 
 
 Managing Resource Scarcity: Lessons from the Mid- 
 Seventies, 60 
 
 The Manufacturing Location Decision: Evidence from Cin- 
 cinnati and New England, 41 
 
 Manufacturing Plant Characteristics 1970, 66 
 
 Measuring the Regional Economic Impacts of the Federal 
 Grant Programs, 12 
 
 Metropolitan Prospects in the Context of the Changing Dis- 
 tribution of Industry and Jobs, 2 
 
 Midwest State Profiles, 16 
 
 Migration and Economic Change in Predominately Black 
 Counties, 1970-1974,66 
 
 The Migration of Firms and Workers in Ohio, 1970-1975, 13 
 
 Minority Business Enterprise Capital Markets: An Analysis 
 of Empirical Data, Current Federal Intervention and Pro- 
 posed Innovations, 58 
 
 Mobile Nuclear Power Plants: Initial Feasibility Study, 48 
 
 Mobilizing Capital for Economic Development: Institutional 
 Innovation and the New Urban Policy, 38 
 
 A Multiregional Input-Output Model for the United States, 31 
 
 Multiregional Multipliers for Massachusetts and New 
 England, 67 
 
 Multistate Regional Development Issues, 35 
 
 A Myth in the Making: The Southern Economic Challenge 
 and Northern Economic Decline, 13 
 
 New Directions in Federal Economic Development Programs, 
 
 67 
 New England Blueprint for Energy Action: Preliminary 
 
 Report for Public Review, 50 
 New York State's Transition to Stability: The Demographic 
 
 Outlook, 5 
 The Northeast: Managing a Way Out — Legislative Actions 
 
 for Survival in the Credit Markets, 1 7 
 The Northern Tier and the Sunbelt: Conflict or Cooperation?, 
 
 14 
 
 On Hirschman, Linkages and Empirical Results, 67 
 
 PSE in Perspective, 53 
 
 Planning for the Interorganization Networking of a State 
 Economic Development Council, 27 
 
 Policies for Nonmetropolitan Areas, 20 
 
 Preliminary Listing of Municipal Water Supply Capacities, 67 
 
 A Preliminary Review of Current Practices and Trends in 
 Rural Telecommunications Development and Recommen- 
 dations for Future Development, 19 
 
 Private Sector Tax Credits for Urban Revitalization, or Are 
 We Giving Credit Where Credit is Doomed?, 6 
 
 A Proposal for a Development Bank for the United States, 42 
 Proposed Information Program Concept for the Office of 
 
 Economic Research, 30 
 Public Works as a Countercyclical Device: A Review of the 
 
 Issues, 54 
 Public Works as a Countercyclical Fiscal Policy, 55 
 The Purposes of Balanced Growth, 26 
 
 The Quality of Municipal Services, Central City Decline, and 
 Middle Class Flight, 4 
 
 80 
 
Redistributive Effects of Urban Population Growth, 59 
 
 Regional Cycles and Employment Effects of Public Works In- 
 vestments, 56 
 
 The Regional Data Quarterly: A Compilation of Nine Eco- 
 nomic Performance Indicators for New England, Mid- 
 Atlantic, and Midwestern States, 10 
 
 Regional Economic Consequences of High Energy Prices in 
 the United States, 49 
 
 Regional Economic Development and Federal Legislation, 30 
 
 Regional Impacts of Rising Energy Prices, 49, 67 
 
 Regional Industrial Location Determinants and Their Appli- 
 cation to Modeling, 18 
 
 Regional Labor Supply Response to Negative Income Tax 
 Programs, 1 1 
 
 Relating Jobs to Training: A Model to Improve Congruence 
 of Vocational Education and Current Job Practices, 57 
 
 Relationship of Environmental Improvement Efforts on 
 Development in Economically Distressed Areas, 45 
 
 The Reliability of Industrial Location Surveys, 40 
 
 Report on Municipal and Industrial Wastewater Treatment 
 Systems: A Statistical Compendium, 61 
 
 A Review of the 1971 EDA Location Survey, 41 
 
 Revitalizing the Northeastern Economy — A Survey for 
 Action, 7 
 
 The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Development at 
 the Less-Than-National-Level, 42 
 
 Rural Economic Development: A Concept Paper, 19 
 
 A Select Review of Urban Economic Development: Observa- 
 tions, Issues, Strategies and Assessments, 17 
 
 Selected Statistics on the Developing USA, 63 
 
 Socio-Economic and Environmental Interactions in the Upper 
 Main Stem Sub-Basin of the Colorado River Basin: Three 
 Alternative Energy Development Futures, 50 
 
 The South and the Nation, 8 
 
 Southern Growth Trends, 1970-1976,8 
 
 Southern Regional Research and Information Program, 67 
 
 State Departments of Community and Economic Develop- 
 ment: Frameworks for Coordinating Implementation, 26 
 
 State Economic Modeling: Techniques of State Planning, 32 
 
 State Planning Series, 37 
 
 Statistical Models of Sub-Regional and Regional Employ- 
 ment, 10 
 
 Stimulating the Economy of the Great Lakes States, 7 
 
 Study of Clustering of Industries, 9 
 
 A Study Design for the High Plains Development Project, 47 
 
 Summary of Conclusions and Recommendations by Ad Hoc 
 Review Panel Members Regarding OMB's Preliminary 
 Working Papers: "Review of Federal Planning Require- 
 ments", 36 
 
 A System for the Analysis, Evaluation and Design of Organi- 
 zations, Work and Jobs, 39 
 
 Tourism in the United States— Potentials and Problems, 40 
 
 Transportation and Urban Economic Development, 6 
 
 The U.S. Economy, 1978-1982,54 
 
 The Umbrella Planning Commission: A Model for Integrat- 
 ing Local Development Planning and Decision-Making, 31 
 
 The Unemployment Insurance Tax Structure in New York 
 State, 42 
 
 Urban Agglomeration Economies and Their Implications for 
 Regional Development, 59 
 
 Urban Growth in the Nonmetropolitan South, 22 
 
 Urban Economic Development Strategies: Improving Eco- 
 nomic and Fiscal Performance, 2 
 
 Using Locally Planned Investment Strategies for Strategic 
 Targetting of EDA Investment Funds, 34 
 
 Variation in Minority Business Participation, 59 
 
 What Happens After Training: A Review of Follow-Up of 
 Vocational Graduates, 57 
 
 What Should America's Housing Policy Be?, 67 
 
 Where Have All the Firms Gone? An Analysis of the New 
 England Economy, 14 
 
 Working Paper on Rail Reorganization Economic Develop- 
 ment Issues, 16 
 
 81 
 
Author and Institution Index 
 
 Abt Associates, 38 
 
 Academy for Contemporary Problems, 6, 7, 13, 34, 35 
 
 Administrative Sciences Corporation, 9, 10 
 
 Alexander, Arch B., 18 
 
 Allen, Kevin, 65 
 
 Alonso, William, 26 
 
 American Institute of Planners, 30 
 
 Arkansas, University of, 45, 49, 65 
 
 Arthur D. Little, Inc., 8 
 
 Askew, Reubin, 8 
 
 Bahl, Roy, 23 
 
 Bearse, Peter J.,9, 38 
 
 Bernard D. Gross Associates, 30 
 
 Bever, Thomas D., 8 
 
 Bivens, W.E.,26 
 
 Booker T. Washington Foundation, 19 
 
 Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc., 45 
 
 Bozdogan, Kirkor, 8 
 
 Braden, Paul V., ed., 27 
 
 Brookings Institution, 1, 53 
 
 Brunson, E. Evan, 8 
 
 Burgess, Phillip, 60 
 
 Burggraf, Shirley P., 47 
 
 Burright, Burke, 56 
 
 California, University of, 29 
 
 Campbell, Alan K., 9 
 
 Carradine, Samuel, 19 
 
 Carrigan, Jay T., 32 
 
 Chalmers, J., 19 
 
 Chase Econometrics, 10 
 
 Chen, Chi TaW., 63 
 
 Chinitz, Ben, 1,9,38,65 
 
 Clemente, Frank, 22 
 
 Cogan, John F., 66 
 
 Coleman, Sinclair, 56 
 
 Collier, Robert E., 27 
 
 Colorado, University of, 50 
 
 Community Research Group (TELACU), 66 
 
 Constantin, James A., 27, 28 
 
 Cook, Robert F., 53 
 
 Council for Northeast Economic Action, 10, 17 
 
 Council of State Community Affairs Agencies (COSCAA), 26 
 
 Council of State Planning Agencies, 3 1 , 32, 37 
 
 Czamanski, Stan, 9 
 
 Dalhousie University, 9 
 Daniels, Belden, 58 
 Delaware, University of, 58 
 Denison University, 14 
 Detterweich, Douglas P., 58 
 DeTray, Dennis N., 65 
 Dommel, PaulR., 1 
 Dresche, Steven, 65 
 
 Economic Development Administration, 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 20, 
 
 22,27,28,32,39,63 
 Economica, Inc., 30 
 Eskew, Henry L., 9, 10 
 Evans, Sharon, 22 
 Ewald, William R., Jr. ,29 
 
 Fahle, Vernon L., 53 
 Fairchild, Chuck, 38 
 Faucett, Jack G., 39, 66 
 Fechter, Alan, 23 
 Fieser, John B., 32 
 Florida A&M University, 47 
 Florida, Governor of, 8 
 Florida State University, 58 
 Florida, University of, 15 
 Frazier, Thomas P., 10 
 Frederick, Kenneth, 47 
 Friedlander, Stanley I., 30 
 
 Garn, Harvey A., 2 
 Georgia Institute of Technology, 27 
 Georgia Planning Association, 31 
 Georgia, University of, 66 
 Ghosh, Amit K., 66 
 Giarratani, Frank, 49, 67 
 Gladstone Associates, 6 
 Graham, Robert E., Jr., 1 1 
 Greenberg, David H., 1 1 
 Greene, Kenneth V., 24 
 Greenston, Peter, 3 
 Greenwood, M., 19 
 Gross, Bernard D., 30 
 Gustely, Richard D., 12 
 
 Hansen, Derek "Pete", 58 
 
 Hansen, Niles, 20 
 
 Hartley, David K., 30 
 
 Harvard University, 26, 3 1 , 33, 41 , 58, 66, 67 
 
 Hatry, Harry P., 66 
 
 Haworth, Joan G., 58 
 
 Haywood, Charles F., 12 
 
 Henderson, William, 24, 66 
 
 Hess, Robert C, 50 
 
 Hochman, Harold M., 9 
 
 Holmes, Alexander B., 21 
 
 Hosek, James R., 11 
 
 Howard, Russell L., 48 
 
 Howell, James M., 17 
 
 Hubbell, Kenneth L., 3, 66 
 
 Hudson Institute, 15, 54, 66 
 
 Hudson, Quinn, 31 
 
 Institute for Demographic and Economic Studies, 34, 65 
 Institute of International Law and Economic Development, 
 66 
 
 83 
 
Iowa Development Commission, 63, 65 
 
 Jack Faucett Associates, 39, 66 
 
 Joint Center for Urban Studies (MIT-Harvard), 33 
 
 Jones, D. W., 48 
 
 Jusenius, Carol, 12, 13, 14 
 
 Kahn, Herman, 15, 54 
 Katzman, Martin T., 4, 65 
 Kentucky, University of, 12 
 Kordalewski, John, 4 
 
 Lachenmeyer, Charles W., 39 
 
 Lazar Institute, 63 
 
 Lazar Management Group, Inc., 31 
 
 Ledebur, Larry C, 2, 4, 5, 12, 13, 14, 20, 27 
 
 LEGIS 50/Center for Legislative Improvement, 65 
 
 Legislative Leaders for Balanced Growth for the Northeast, 
 
 17 
 Leisure Systems, Inc., 40 
 Leone, Robert A., 66 
 Leveson, Irving, 54 
 Lind, Marvin B., 63, 64 
 Liner, E. Blaine, 66 
 Liske, Craig, ed., 60 
 Little, Arthur D., Inc., 8 
 Litvak, Larry, 58 
 Lockhart, MadelynM., 15 
 Lutz, Raymond P., 64 
 Lynch, Lawrence K., 66 
 
 Mahmood, Syyed T., 66 
 
 Marinich, Joseph S., 26 
 
 Martin, Curtis H., 66 
 
 Martin, Ralph, 61 
 
 Martin, Randolph, 1 1 
 
 Maryland, University of, 16 
 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 33, 66, 67 
 
 McCarthy, Kevin F., 21 
 
 McHugh, Richard, 6 
 
 Memphis State University, 48 
 
 Mid-States Research Service, 64 
 
 Miernyk, William H., 15, 49, 67 
 
 Milkman, Raymond, 31 
 
 Minkoff, Jon, 22 
 
 Missouri, University of, 3, 24 
 
 Morrison, Peter A., 5, 21 
 
 Mountain West Research, Inc., 19 
 
 Muchmore, Lynn, 31 
 
 Muller, Thomas, 5 
 
 National Bureau of Economic Research, 66, 67 
 
 National Commission on Employment and Unemployment 
 Statistics, 33 
 
 National Public Advisory Committee on Regional Develop- 
 ment, 36 
 
 National Rural Water Association, 62 
 
 New England Energy Congress, 50 
 
 Newman, Monroe, 40 
 
 New York State Senate, 17 
 
 New York, State University of, 1 , 9, 24 
 
 North Carolina, University of, 65, 66 
 
 Northeast-Midwest Congressional Coalition, 16 
 
 Northeast-Midwest Institute, 16 
 
 Ohio State University, 14 
 
 Oklahoma Foundation for Research and Development 
 
 Utilization, 67 
 Oklahoma State Department of Vocational and Technical 
 
 Education, 18 
 Oklahoma State University, 21 
 Oklahoma, University of, 27, 28, 61 
 Olson, Kent W., 21 
 Olson, Mancur, 16 
 Opitz, John H., 49 
 Oster, Sharon, 40, 41 
 
 Padgett, Larry R., 49 
 
 Paul,KrishanK.,57 
 
 Pershing, John J., 39 
 
 Phillips Petroleum Company, 48 
 
 Polenske, Karen R., 31 
 
 Potomac Institute for Economic Development (formerly 
 
 Vista Research), viii 
 Princeton University, 38 
 Pulliam Associates, 61 
 Pulliam, J. Gordon, 61 
 Puryear, David, 6 
 
 Rafuse, Robert W., Jr., 32 
 
 Rand Corporation, 5, 11, 21, 54, 55, 56, 65, 66 
 
 Rasmussen, David W., 58 
 
 Reid, George, 61 
 
 Resources for the Future, Inc., 47 
 
 Richardson, Elliot L., 25 
 
 RMG Associates, Inc., 16 
 
 Ross, John P., 54 
 
 RRC International, Inc., 42 
 
 Schiller, Bradley R., viii 
 
 Schmenner, Roger W., 41 
 
 Schwartz, Gail Garfield, 6 
 
 Seagraves, Linda, 18 
 
 Sears, John T., 49 
 
 Shapero, Albert, 42 
 
 Shaul, Marnie, 35 
 
 Sills, James H., Jr., 58 
 
 Slack, Gary G., 32 
 
 Smith, Edward D., 42 
 
 Smith, James P., 66 
 
 Smithsonian Institution, 65 
 
 Snead, CarlF., 3, 33 
 
 Socher, Charles F., 49, 67 
 
 South Carolina, University of, 1 1 
 
 Southern Growth Policies Board, 8, 67 
 
 Spencer, Bailey, ed., 50 
 
 Stanley, Sam, 65 
 
 Stevens, David W., 33 
 
 St. John's University, 39 
 
 Summers, Gene F., 22 
 
 Syracuse University, 23 
 
 SYSTAN, Inc., 65 
 
 Tannian, Francis X., 58 
 TERCON, 32 
 
 Texas, University of, 4, 20, 42, 64 
 Thompson, Roger C, 17 
 Troutman, Frank H., 45, 49 
 Tuttle, Francis T., 18 
 
 84 
 
Udis, Bernard, ed., 50 Western Governors' Policy Office for Policy Research 
 
 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 66 (WESTPO), 60 
 
 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 12 West Virginia, University of, 15,49 
 
 Updegrove, Daniel, 34 Wheat, Leonard F., 18, 22 
 
 Urban Institute, 2, 3, 4, 5, 23, 33, 36, 66 Wheeler, Jimmy Wayne, 54 
 
 Urban Observatory of Metropolitan Nashville and University Widner, Ralph R., 34, 35 
 
 Centers, 57 Winnie, Richard E., 27, 66 
 
 Urben, Mark B., 34 Wisconsin, University of, 22 
 
 Wise, Harold F., 36 
 
 Vaughan, Roger J., 54, 55, 56 Witherspoon, Robert, 6 
 
 Vernez, Georges, 55, 56 Wolman, Harold, 36 
 
 Vista Research (see Potomac Institute for Economic Develop- Wright, Virginia B., 66 
 
 ment) 
 
 Wallace, William, 42 Yale University, 40, 41 
 
 Weinstein, Bernard L., 64 York, M., 19 
 
 r 
 
 85 
 
Subject Index 
 
 Air Quality-Water Project, Boston, MA, 73 
 
 Air Quality-Water Project, Buffalo, NY, 73 
 
 Air Quality- Water Project, Chicago, IL, 73 
 
 Air Quality-Water Project, Elizabeth, NJ, 73 
 
 Air Quality-Water Project, Philadelphia, PA, 73 
 
 Air Quality- Water Project, Portland, OR, 73 
 
 Air Quality- Water Project, St. Paul-Minneapolis, MN, 73 
 
 Air Quality- Water Project, Waterbury, CT, 73 
 
 Air service, 22 
 
 American Indian economic development, 65 
 
 Appalachia, 65 
 
 Arkansas, 49, 65 
 
 Arkansas Basin Chloride Control Project, 21 
 
 Arts, economic impacts of, 71 
 
 Atlantic Conference on Balanced Regional Growth, 18 
 
 Balanced growth, Northeast, 17 
 
 Balanced growth, policy issues, 26 
 
 Balanced national growth, incentives, 65 
 
 BEA areas, 33 
 
 Bibliography, economic development research by States, 63, 
 
 64,65 
 Black migration, 66 
 
 Business development and finance training, 74 
 Business development program and employment growth, 72 
 Business development program, directives, 65 
 Business finance, State role, 71 
 Business finance and local economic development, 72 
 Business finance program, 72 
 
 Capital markets, minority business, 58 
 
 Capital markets, South, 12 
 
 Capital mobilization, 38 
 
 Capital ownership, impacts, 40 
 
 Census data, use for planning, 66 
 
 Central city economic development, 65 
 
 CETA, evaluation, 10 
 
 City, economic and fiscal performance, 2, 22 
 
 City, economic transformation, 69 
 
 City, fiscal outlook, 23 
 
 Coal development, Colorado, 50 
 
 Colorado, 50 
 
 Commerce/City Project, 69 
 
 Commodity trade, 66 
 
 Community Development Block Grant Program, impacts, 1 
 
 Community economic development handbook, 66 
 
 Community economic development, State departments of, 26 
 
 Commuting, impacts on distressed areas, 66 
 
 Composite mapping, 32 
 
 Computer program, 29, 32, 34, 65 
 
 Continuous Work History Sample, 69 
 
 Countercyclical policies, impacts of, 53, 54, 55 
 
 Countercyclical public works, 54, 55 
 
 Countercyclical public works, impacts on job creation, 55 
 
 Countercyclical public works, PSE program, 55 
 
 Countercyclical revenue sharing, impacts of, 54 
 
 Decline, Northeast, 9, 12, 13, 15, 17, 65 
 Demographic trends, nonmetropolitan, 21 
 Development finance issues, 72 
 Distressed areas, impacts of commuting, 66 
 Distressed areas, water-sewer development, 73 
 Drought management, 60 
 
 Econometric models, 66 
 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 
 36 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 Econom 
 
 c and community development center, Southwest, 64 
 
 c and community development, State role, 71 
 
 c change and firm behavior, 71 
 
 c decline, Northeast, 9, 12, 13, 15, 17,65 
 
 c decline and fiscal problems, 17 
 
 c development, American Indians, 65 
 
 c development, central city, 1, 65 
 
 c development, handbook for evaluating, 74 
 
 c development, impacts of energy, 47 
 
 c development indicators, 69 
 
 c development, local, 66 
 
 c development, State quarterly reports, 71 
 
 c development, State role, 30, 37, 65, 71 
 
 c development, urban, Section I and 69 
 
 c development and conflicts with Federal programs, 
 
 c development and service industries, 66 
 
 c development and State resource sharing, 71 
 
 c Development Councils, Georgia, 27 
 
 c Development Districts, 30 
 
 c Development Districts, Southern Alleghenies, 71 
 
 c development grants, fiscal impacts of, 24 
 
 c development patterns and EDA, 9 
 
 c development policy, 36 
 
 c development policy and labor force data, 33 
 
 c development policy, rural, 70 
 
 c development policy, subnational, 28 
 
 c development programs, evaluation, 3 1 , 66 
 
 c development research, issues, 34 
 
 c development research, State, 63, 64, 65 
 
 c development strategies, Northeast, 70 
 
 c distress, urban, 2,3,4, 69 
 
 c growth, South, 15, 16, 22 
 
 c growth and capital markets, South, 12 
 
 c growth policy, 8 
 
 c impacts analysis, 71 
 
 c impacts of EDA programs, 1 1 , 70 
 
 c impacts of the arts, 7 1 
 
 c impacts of travel and tourism, Arkansas, 65 
 
 c impact statements, model, 73 
 
 c models for planning, 32 
 
 c performance, North and South comparisons, 13 
 
 c performance indicators, 10, 22 
 
 c policy, State, 65, 71 
 
 c profile, Midwest, 16 
 
 c strategies, Great Lakes States, 7 
 
 c transformations, cities, 69 
 
 EDA programs, economic impacts of, 11, 70 
 
 87 
 
EDA research, 34, 73 
 
 Employee stock option program, 40 
 
 Employment and income growth, Southeast, 66 
 
 Employment and training programs, impacts of, 66 
 
 Employment discrimination, 58 
 
 Employment growth, New England, 14 
 
 Energy, Arkansas, 49 
 
 Energy, coal development in Colorado, 50 
 
 Energy, impacts on economic development, 47 
 
 Energy, impacts on regional economies, 49 
 
 Energy, New England, 50, 73 
 
 Energy, regional impacts of, 49, 67 
 
 Energy, South, 48 
 
 Entrepreneurship, impacts of, 42 
 
 Environmental policy, impacts on urban areas, 69 
 
 Environmental protection regulations, 45 
 
 Factor mobility, 66 
 
 Family Assistance Plan, impacts of, 66 
 
 Federal assistance and Southern economic growth, 25 
 
 Federal grant-in-aid programs, impacts of, 12 
 
 Federal program conflicts and economic development, 36 
 
 Financial incentives, industrial revenue bonds, 66 
 
 Financial incentives, job creation, 39 
 
 Firm behavior and economic change, 71 
 
 Firm migration, Northeast, 12 
 
 Firm migration, Ohio, 13 
 
 Fiscal and financial incentives, 18 
 
 Fiscal crisis and Federal roles, 24 
 
 Fiscal crisis and Federal policy, 66 
 
 Fiscal impacts of economic development grants, 24 
 
 Fiscal implications of social welfare, 23 
 
 Fiscal outlook, cities, 23 
 
 Fiscal problems and economic decline, 17 
 
 Government regulations, 72 
 
 Great Lakes States, economic strategies, 7 
 
 Growth trends, South, 8 
 
 Growth factors, 22 
 
 High Plains Development Project, 47, 72 
 
 Hirschman hypothesis, 67 
 
 Historic preservation, fiscal benefits, 70 
 
 Housing policy, 67 
 
 Human resources and economic development, 27 
 
 Incentives program and investment strategies, 34 
 
 Income determination input-output model, 34, 65 
 
 Income distribution, South, 15 
 
 Income maintenance, impact on fiscal problems, 66 
 
 Indian economic development, 65 
 
 Industrial development, rural, 22 
 
 Industrial revenue bonds, 66 
 
 Industry and employment mix, 2 
 
 Industry composition, 4 
 
 Industry, local, and migration, 69 
 
 Industry location determinants, 18, 39 
 
 Industry location, manufacturing, 41 , 66 
 
 Industry location surveys, 39, 40 
 
 Industry multiplier effects, 9 
 
 Infrastructure, New York region, 73 
 
 Infrastructure needs, 70 
 
 Input-output model, income determination, 34, 65 
 
 Input-output model, regional impacts, 3 1 
 
 Inter-Agency Domestic Information Display System, 71 
 
 Internship program EDA, 63, 74 
 
 Interregional model, 71 
 
 Job analysis systems, 39 
 
 Job creation and financial incentives, 39 
 
 Kentucky, urban economic development, 69 
 
 Labor force data, policy, 33 
 
 Labor markets, 33 
 
 Local economic development and business, 72 
 
 Local leadership, 70 
 
 Massachusetts, 67 
 
 Mid-Atlantic, economic performance, 10 
 
 Midwest, economic performance, 10 
 
 Midwest, economic profile, 16 
 
 Migration, black, 66 
 
 Minority academic institutions, 74 
 
 Minority business, capital markets, 58 
 
 Minority development and sectoral analysis, 72 
 
 Minority entrepreneurship, 58 
 
 Mobile nuclear power plants, 48 
 
 Multicounty data base, 71 
 
 Multilateral trade adjustments, 70 
 
 Multiregional Input-Output Model, 67 
 
 Multiregional multipliers, 67 
 
 Multistate development organizations, 35 
 
 Municipal services, impacts on suburbanization, 4 
 
 Municipal water supply, 67 
 
 National Development Bank, 3, 38, 42, 65, 108 
 
 National trends, analysis, 66 
 
 Negative Income Tax Program, 1 1 
 
 New England, economic performance, 10 
 
 New England, employment growth, 14 
 
 New England, energy, 50 
 
 New England economy, 67, 70 
 
 New York, population trends, 5 
 
 New York City, policy, 69 
 
 New York Region, infrastructure, 73 
 
 Nonmetropolitan demographic patterns, 21 , 22 
 
 Nonmetropolitan growth, 20, 22 
 
 Nonworking married women, 66 
 
 North, industrial decline, 12, 13 
 
 North and South, performance, 13, 14 
 
 North and South comparisons, 14 
 
 Northeast, balanced growth, 17 
 
 Northeast, economic decline, 9, 65 
 
 Northeast, economic development strategies, 70 
 
 Northeast, fiscal problems, 17 
 
 Northeast, firm migration, 12 
 
 Northeast, planning for balanced growth, 17 
 
 Northeast, revitalization, 7 
 
 OECD, Working Party, 70 
 
 Ohio, firm migration, 13 
 
 Office of Economic Research, dissemination, 30 
 
 Planning, commissions, 31 
 
 Planning, regional economic development, 71 
 
 Planning, requirements, 36 
 
 Planning, resource use and development, 28 
 
 Planning, State, 37 
 
 Planning, use of Census data, 66 
 
 Planning for balanced growth, Northeast, 17 
 
 Policy, New York City, 69 
 
 Population distribution, 5 
 
 Population trends, New York, 5 
 
 Public sector business assistance, 72 
 
 88 
 
Public service employment, impacts of, 53, 55 
 Public works, countercyclical, 53, 54, 55 
 Public works expenditures, formula, 73 
 Public works, history, 73 
 
 Railroad reorganization, 16 
 
 Recreation-led growth, Appalachia, 65 
 
 Regional economic development, Section II and 69 
 
 Regional economic development handbook, 71 
 
 Regional economic development and human resources, 27 
 
 Regional economic development, impacts of the environment, 
 
 45 
 Regional economic development, leadership, 70 
 Regional economic development, planning, 71 
 Regional economic development and rural decline, 20 
 Regional economic incentives, 18, 65 
 Regional economic growth, transportation, 27 
 Regional economic problems, North and South, 13, 14 
 Regional economic transition, 8 
 Regional economy, countercyclical policies, 53 
 Regional economy, energy, 48, 49, 67 
 Regional development, incentives, 18, 65 
 Regional development issues, 34, 35 
 Regional malls, fiscal impacts, 5 
 Regional Science Association, dissertations, 74 
 Research, minority academic institutions, 74 
 Research agenda, South, 67 
 Residential preference, 5 
 Resource sharing, 71 
 Resource use and development, 28 
 Revitalization, Northeast, 7 
 Rural development, industrial, 22 
 Rural economic decline, 20 
 Rural economic development, Section III 
 Rural economic development and water systems, 62 
 Rural economic development policy, 70 
 Rural economic development, telecommunications, 19 
 
 Saline pollution, Arkansas, 21 
 
 Sectoral analysis and minority development, 72 
 
 Service industries, 66 
 
 Small firms, impacts on economic development, 72 
 
 Small firms, finance policies, 72 
 
 Social welfare programs, 23 
 
 South, capital markets, 12 
 
 South, economic growth,, 8, 12, 15, 16, 25, 66 
 
 South, economic growth policy, 8 
 
 South, energy, 48 
 
 South, growth studies, 22, 66 
 
 South, growth trends, 8, 66 
 
 South, income distribution, 15 
 
 South, research agenda, 67 
 
 South and North, economic performance, 13,14 
 
 South and North comparisons, 8, 13, 14 
 
 Southeast, employment and income growth, 66 
 
 Southern Alleghenies, multicounty data, 71 
 
 Southern Index, 70 
 
 Southwest, economic and community development, 64 
 
 Spatial dynamics, 20 
 
 State planning, 30, 37 
 
 State planning, economic models, 32 
 
 State planning, evaluation, 31 
 
 Subnational economic development, 28, 71 
 
 Suburbanization and municipal services, 4 
 
 Tax incentives, impacts of, 70 
 
 Tax incentives, urban revitalization, 6 
 
 Telecommunications, 19 
 
 Tourism, economic impacts of, 40, 65 
 
 Transportation, railroad, 16 
 
 Transportation, regional growth, 27 
 
 Transportation, urban, 6 
 
 Unbalanced growth hypothesis, 67 
 
 Underemployment and poverty, 73 
 
 Unemployment, 73 
 
 Unemployment insurance, 42 
 
 Urban areas, environmental impacts, 69 
 
 Urban decline, 4 
 
 Urban economic development, Section I and 69 
 
 Urban economic development, data inventory, 69 
 
 Urban economic development, Kentucky, 69 
 
 Urban economic development, transportation, 6 
 
 Urban economic distress, 4, 69 
 
 Urban economic and fiscal performance, 2 
 
 Urban economic growth, 6, 22 
 
 Urban economic performance, 2, 22 
 
 Urban fiscal problems, income maintenance, 66 
 
 Urban revitalization, 6 
 
 U.S. economy, indicators, 63, 66 
 
 U.S. economy, issues, 54 
 
 Vocational and technical education, impacts, 18 
 Vocational education, evaluation, 57 
 
 Waste- water treatment systems, 61 
 
 Water and energy resources, High Plains, 47, 72 
 
 Water resources, drought, 60 
 
 Water-sewer development, rural, 73 
 
 Water supply, municipal, 67 
 
 Water system, rural economic development, 62 
 
 Welfare reform, evaluation, 65 
 
 Williamsburg Conference on New Directions in Federal 
 
 Economic Development, 67 
 Women, effects on career aspirations, 66 
 Women, value of housewife's time, 66 
 
 89 
 
 ■C U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1981 O— 329-504 
 
PENN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES 
 
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