U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economic Development Administration ECONOMIC RESEARCH STUDIES OF THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY Reports received August 1965 through December 1973 September 1974 ><• . §• ;U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FREDERICK B. DENT, Secretary WILLIAM W. BLUNT, Jr., j Assistant Secretary for Economic Development For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 1.95 cents. FOREWORD The Economic Development Administration was established under the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965 to help generate new employment opportunities and improve levels of living in areas which have not shared our national prosperity. The key to finding new sources of jobs and income in a lagging area often lies in furnishing missing know-how, technical information, expert opinion, and counseling. EDA's research program is designed to support these efforts. This annotated bibliography puts the research results at the disposal of persons concerned with tools and policies for assisting economically distressed areas. iAJJM^LU.fh^lty. WILLIAM W. BLUNT, JR. Assistant Secretary for Economic Development TABLE OF CONTENTS page Introduction v American Indians 1 EDA Business Loans 1 Education 3 Environment, Resources 4 Finance 7 Growth Centers 14 Housing 22 Impact of Public Policies 25 Income Distribution 31 Input-Output 35 Location, Industrial 43 Location, Intra-urban 47 Location, Theory 49 page Manpower 50 Planning, Community Participation 53 Planning, EDA Programs 54 Planning, Organization 57 Planning, Regional 60 Planning, Urban 69 Population Distribution 70 Population Models 79 Program Evaluation, EDA 80 Program Tools and Techniques 88 Regional Economic Development 93 Tourism, Travel, and Recreation 99 Transportation 100 Urban Studies 103 III INTRODUCTION This bibliography covers research produced under grants and contracts for the Office of Economic Research, Economic Development Administration, under Title III of the Public Works and Economic Development Act, and for certain research under Title V of the Act, not including work sponsored by the Regional Commissions. It includes reports completed from the inception of the Agency through December 1973. A main purpose of the research is to advance the state-of-the-art in re- gional economic development theory and practice as a background for broad policy formulation. Another purpose is to assist the Agency in implementing its various operational programs in public works, business development, and planning. The research reports are grouped under 27 subject headings, according to the main concern of the report: American Indians Planning, Community Participation *EDA Business Loans Planning, EDA Programs Education Planning, Organization Environment, Resources Planning, Regional Finance Planning, Urban Growth Centers Population Distribution Housing Population Models Impact of Public Policies Program Evaluation, EDA Income Distribution Program Tools and Techniques Input-Output Regional Economic Development Location, Industrial Tourism, Travel, and Recreation Location, Intra-urban Transportation Location, Theory Urban Studies Manpower A subject index at the back enables the reader to locate material in reports dealing with more than one of the subjects in the subject head- ings. Each report has a number, and is identified in the index by this number. An alphabetical author index is provided. An index of specific geographic areas or places dealt with in the re- ports is also included. Copies of these papers have been entered in the National Technical In- formation Service, Springfield, Virginia 22151, Phone No: 703-321-8543, where copies are available for sale. They may be ordered by the NTIS order number appearing at the top of the annotation. * See also Program Evaluation, EDA Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://www.archive.org/details/economicresearchOOunit AMERICAN INDIANS 1 Present Federal Expenditures on Economic Development of Indian Reservation Areas in Light of a Regional Growth Center Strategy: A Case Study of South Dakota Kenneth M. Bond University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 7 March 1969 67 pp COM-74-10681 This paper does not consider the sociological and cultural facets of the American Indian but maintains that a purely economic study of the economic development question will give additional insights to those formulating overall policy. It discusses the growth center policy and the growth center identification variables; and identifies actual growth centers within South Dakota, location of Indian Reservations in the State, and the relationship between geographic space of the reservations and economic space of growth centers. Section V outlines the conceptual problems in the EOC-SOC determination; Section VI discusses the actual EOC-SOC determination and allocation within South Dakota; and Section VII summarizes the paper. much more emphasis on job opportunities in intermediate- size cities than has heretofore been the case. The Urbanization of the American Indian and the Federal Program of Relocation Assistance Elaine M. Neils University of Chicago August 1969 230 pp COM-74-10613 By the early 1960's the Bureau of Indian Affairs esti- mates that two-fifths of the Indian population of the country resided in urban areas. The author looks into the causes for the migration from the reservations and the historical and geographical patterns of Indian urbaniza- tion, and describes the development and operation of the Federal Relocation Assistance Program with particular reference to Indian migrants. She investigates (1) the effect of the outmigration on reservation conditions and (2) Indian methods of dealing with the urban structure, and concludes that as an educational instrument the program of relocation has merit. However, the Bureau should ask itself whether the larger numbers moving to the cities on their own could expect certain services that they are not receiving. An appendix of statistical tables and a bibliography complete the report. Reservation Development Versus Migration: A Study of the Locational Preferences of Indian High School Seniors in the Southwest Niles M. Hansen University of Texas at Austin February 1971 19 pp COM-73-11700 This study is based on a survey of 560 male and female respondents, 89 per cent of whom planned to continue their education beyond high school. It concentrates on high school seniors because of their relatively high mobility potential, and on the Navajo, Zuni and Rio Grande, Pueblo tribes, because these tribes have managed particularly well to reconcile what have been termed "the divergent views that alternatively have blessed and menaced the record of Government Indian relations." Comparisons are made of preferences for Chicago, Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay area, and Denver. It is concluded that Indian high school seniors, who represent the future of the reservations, are for the most part quite willing to leave for better opportunities elsewhere. The number of respondents preferring and expecting to remain is so small that the future survival of the tribes, at least in a geographically localized place, seems highly ques- tionable, even though the tribes concerned are considered to be among the more successful in the nation in achiev- ing a stable reconciliation of traditional values with those of the larger society. Conclusion: If Indian populations are to be given greater opportunity to participate equally in national economic progress there must be a vastly greater invest- ment in human resources on the reservations. The match- ing of workers and jobs demands a broader geographic perspective than is available by concentrating on the reservation themselves. Such a perspective should place Indian Migration and Assimilation Robert Weinstein University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 14 November 1970 81 pp COM-73-11929 This paper's stated purpose is to provide a better understanding of the migration-adaptation process so that policies may later be developed that will minimize the amount of attitude change required for adaptation of the Indian to urban industrial life. This does not imply that eventually all of the traditional cultural values of the Indians will be eroded away. The author provides a review of the literature under four headings: The Mean- ing of Assimilation and the Cultural Values of Indians; Reasons for Indian Migration; Problems of the Urban Environment; and Characteristics of Migrants which are related to the Degree of Relocation Success. The theory and implication of the psychological field, of reference groups, and of cognitive dissonance are also discussed. EDA BUSINESS LOANS Evaluation of Alternatives to the Business Loan Program Padraic P. Frucht and Barry K. Rogstad Planning Research Corporation June 1968 68 pp PB-182-532 This report analyzes several leading alternatives to the business loan program in light of the authors' assessment of the present business loan program of EDA, and on the basis of these analyses, to make program recommendations designed to enhance the effectiveness of EDA expendi- tures. 6 Federal Loans to Private Enterprise Under the Economic Development Act of 1965 Ira S. Lowry The RAND Corporation April 1966 39 pp COM-73-11669 This paper is one of a series of four on selected topics in regional development. It deals with the conditions under which Federal loans and guarantees to private firms can contribute to the purposes of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965, and with the administrative problems created by those provisions which relate to the possible "external effects" of the program. Specifically, the essay deals with the effects of such assistance on the sales of competing firms and on employment in the communities that house these competing firms. The essay consists of four parts. The first identifies the probable clients of the program and examines the nature of the assistance that can be offered. The second con- siders the possible impacts of such assistance on other firms and other areas. The third proposes an explicit method of measuring such impacts. The fourth suggests an administrative strategy for implementing the loan program. Appended to this paper is an abstract of the relevant provisions of the Act. Study Procedures for Improving Effectiveness of Business Loans Maryland Affiliate Corporation July 29, 1969 14 pp w/3-page graph COM-73-11670 This study was undertaken for the Economic Develop- ment Administration (EDA) with the following long and short term goals in mind: 1. To suggest methods of speeding up approval or denial actions. 2. To improve Government loan programs. 3. To determine methods of maintaining loan viability. 4. To advise on methods of preserving and/or disposing of Government collateral at the best advantage to the Government. Comparison has been made with "normal" banking prac- tices against EDA policies schedules, procedures and organization to ascertain the differences and any possible improvements by conforming to "normal" banking prac- tices. This comparison has covered especially applica- tions, processing and administration of EDA loans. The study evaluated current practices of using commercial or Government staff for credit information and loan re- view, including auditing. An attempt was made to develop an optimum program for all of the foregoing to achieve maximum impact on EDA eligible areas and target popu- lation. 8 The Measurement Of Industrial Capacity George Perazich Economic Associates, Inco. October 1967 171 PP PB-176-456 This paper is concerned with the specific procedures for measuring industrial capacity, for use by EDA administrators, in granting business loans. It stems from an analysis of the implications of Section 702 of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1955 which prevents unfair intra-industry competition. Three types of statistics such as (1) the Federal Reserve Board's indices of output, (2) the capital stock and capital expenditure data, and (3) the corporation income tax returns are available for estimating capacity. Whether or not a certain type of data is suitable for computing capacities through the use of a particular method de- pends upon the nature and Standard Industrial Classi- fication of the industry. For compliance with the Act, a distinction of industrial characteristics must be made regarding excess capacity between different industries. Accordingly, the author presents a lengthy discussion concerning the advantages, limitations, and procedures of the above mentioned data and methods in the study of industrial capacity measurement. For illustrative pur- poses, he uses case studies involving (1) soybean oil mills, (2) tires and tubes, and (3) hydraulic cement to identify his findings. Improving Business Loan Effectiveness Frank Piovia and others EBS Management Consultants, Inc. W. B. Saunders and Company November 1966 61 pp PB-178-969 This study was based on an evaluation of 40 Area Re- development Administration industrial and commercial loan projects. Recommendations are made to improve the effectiveness and success of the EDA business loan programs with respect to application development, loan processing, and loan program administration. 10 Business Development Activities and Guidelines — A Report to EDA Wolf Management Services October 1967 50 pp COM-73-11680 The hypothesis of the Guidelines project was that the lending practices of the Area Redevelopment Administra- tion, and later EDA, could be strengthened by the absorp- tion of some techniques of more firmly established institutions and agencies with common problems. The authors examine the background, the organization, the description and rationale, and the impact of the guidelines. EDUCATION 11 The Elementary and Secondary Education Act: A Distributional Analysis David Barkin and Walter Hettich Washington University and Queen's University April 1968 31 PP COM-73-11667 In analyzing the distributional impact of the Elemen- tary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the authors defined their criteria for assessing distributional grants in terms of their horizontal equity, i.e. equal treatment for equals and their vertical equity as the way in which people in different positions are treated. The data problems associated with establishing an adequate index of need are discussed in detail, as is fiscal capacity as a criterion for distribution. Data on the net distribution of fiscal aid under the ESEA formula are presented. Tabular and graphic display illustrate the differences in distribu- tion of gross aid to States on basis of (a) present program, (b) need only and (c) need plus fiscal capacity. The report concluded that under the heading of horizontal equity, the present need index provides a satisfactory measure of the disadvantaged school popu- lation. With respect to vertical equity, it concludes that the ESEA is a conservative measure that breaks little new ground in equalizing the States' ability to provide education. Future legislation should stress the criterion of fiscal capacity as a major variable for reordering distributions. 12 The Equalizing Impact of State Aid to Education David Barkin Washington University, St. Louis June 1967 22 pp COM-73-11640 This study compares State aid to education programs in Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee to determine how well they compensate for differences in the ability of local school districts to pay for education. The three school aid programs are briefly described and compared with a hypothetical one explicitly designed to provide adequate equalization. The reasons why the Missouri pro- gram is the least equalizing are discussed as are the various compensating devices adopted to affect the equalization patterns. A separate section treats effects of urbanization on equalization and discusses some of the ways which State aid programs discriminate against urban areas. The study concludes with a description of an alterna- tive hypothetical solution to the problem of equalization that might be considered in State aid programs. 13 Poverty and Federal Aid to Education David Barkin Washington University, St. Louis October 1967 15 pp COM-73-11668 Among other anti-poverty programs legislated during the 1960's the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 (ESEA) raises a specific issue of how to measure the poor, or the otherwise educationally disadvantaged whose prospects for an enriched life are supposed to be altered by the various titles of that Act. This study examines and compares the flat monetary cutoff advanced by the Council of Economic Advisers 1964 Report with the more complex derivation advanced by Orshansky of the Social Security Administration (SSC). It answers the definitions embraced in the ESEA as well as the Office of Economic Opportunity's view of the need for definitional flexibility in counting those in need of educational assistance. Data on the geographical distribution of the poor under various definitions are presented. The report concludes that the definitional formulae finally adopted by the Office of Education in implemen- ting the ESEA appear to vitiate the need for another measure of poverty until other more frequent and ac- curate estimates of the numbers of poor children can be obtained. 14 Communication and Mountain Development, A Summary Report of Two East Kentucky Studies Mary Jean Bowman and H. Dudley Plunkett University of Chicago May 1969 172 pp PB-183-155 This report is based on two monographs: a study of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship as a development phenomenon, and a study of mountain elites and their role in social communication and modernization. Samples of both groups were interviewed in 26 Eastern Kentucky counties in 1956 and this study repeated the interviews in 1966 to determine subsequent experience. The authors draw a number of conclusions relating to the effective- ness of financial and managerial assistance to local enterprises and of minimum wage legislation. They pro- pose outright grants to cover payroll taxes in distressed areas, or preferably substitution of general taxation for payroll taxation to finance unemployment and old age benefits throughout the nation; and wage subsidies to firms employing people over some designated age (say 40?) who have been long term residents of economically distressed areas. The authors also make a number of suggestions for assimilating outsiders and mobilizing cultural intermediaries. 15 On the Value of Equality of Educational Opportunity as a Guide to Public Policy John F. Kain, Harvard University and Eric A. Hanushek, U.S. Air Force Academy May 1968 58 pp COM-74-10617 This is an in depth critique of Equality of Educational Opportunity, or the Coleman Report as it is popularly known, including the widely read summary of the Report. It endeavors to explain the confusion that results from misreading and/or misunderstanding of methods of em- pirical analysis and their interpretation. The authors discuss the question of choosing a research strategy for evaluating educational opportunities and providing a basis for public policy in this area. It is concluded that the wrong research strategy was chosen and in consequence, the report fails to provide a satisfac- tory answer to the basic question on educational oppor- tunities posed by the Congressional mandate. Major perceived flaws in the Report's basic research into the educational production process are examined as are the lack of historical data and the neglect of innate ability in the statistical model. One positive feature of the Report is the reaffirmation of the huge gap in educa- tional achievement between blacks and whites. The evaluation concludes with an indication of the data needs and model design features required to provide an ade- quate information base for designing comprehensive educational program policies. 16 The Interdependence between Income and Education George S. Tolley and E. Olson The Center of Urban Studies University of Chicago October 1969 28 pp COM-73-11965 Part 1 of this paper considers the determinants of local government expenditures on primary and secondary education, and presents results from traditional least- squares regressions with income as one of the indepen- dent variables. Part 2 concerns use of the same data in traditional least-squares regressions when education vari- ables are among those used to explain income. Part 3 is concerned with the inter-relationship between education expenditures and income in light of the identification problem, namely that education influences income and income influences education. Estimates of the two in- fluences are obtained from a simultaneous equations framework. The results are compared with traditional least-squares estimates. Part 4 is concerned with how to use the estimates in evaluating an action, e.g. building a water resource project, which affects education expendi- tures. This report is Part of THE NATIONAL ACCELERATION LABORATORY: A STUDY OF THE SOCIAL IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY, a larger study on the impacts of technol- ogy on social change. 17 The Effect of Education on the Earnings of Blacks and Whites Randall D. Weiss Harvard University April 1969 37 pp COM-74-10456 Individual data used to measure the effect of educa- tional achievement and various other personal charac- teristics on earnings are obtained from the 1000 sample of the 1969 U.S. Census for the North Central Region and information on scholastic achievement is obtained from Equality of Educational Opportunity, the Coleman report. Four hypotheses are tested: a significant relationship exists between individual scholastic achievement and his earnings; achievement explains more of variance in earn- ings; the effect of education on earnings is less for blacks than for whites; and blacks' lower average achievement does not account for the difference in mean earnings of blacks and whites. The analytical procedures, data re- quirements, and the recursive model of income determina- tion are described in detail. It is concluded that the two first hypotheses are sub- stantiated only for whites. For blacks, only one of four age groups considered gives evidence that years of school or achievement has a significant effect on earnings. The results suggest that improving and increasing education for blacks will not necessarily raise their earnings. Futhcr, the study offers no support for the contention that in- creased scholastic achievement coupled with the end of discrimination in the labor market may alleviate the economic condition of blacks. ENVIRONMENT, RESOURCES 18 Three Papers on Quality of Urban Environment Gary L. Ault, Susan E. Ault, Elizabeth E. Campbell and Tom S. Witt Washington University, St. Louis November 1967 52 pp COM-74-10302 The first of these three related papers sets up a series of sample correlations to estimate the extent to which selected urban amenities, such as characteristics of the population, physical environment, economic character- istics, and government services provided, and education and cultural facilities, might explain inmigration of white male professional and technical workers. Linear regres- sions are computed using 1960 census data for 24 SMSAs. The limitations of this procedure and marginal value of re- sults are discussed along with further procedures for improving the analysis. The second paper addresses the question of the forces which influence migrants' decisions to move to a specific urban area. As in the first paper, simple correlation analy- ses are developed relating computed cohort migration rates for whites and nonwhites with various SMSA ameni- ties listed in the first paper. The results are tabulated and discussed. The main conclusion is that regardless of race, migration is motivated mainly by economic oppor- tunities, young (17-21) whites being the only notable exception. The third paper discusses an inquiry into the extent that inmigrants perceive differences between metropolitan area characteristics, and the extent to which their percep- tions influence locational choice. The questionnaire re- quired the responding migrants to St. Louis to classify 23 other SMSA's in terms of -the migrants' perception of their economic attributes compared to those of St. Louis. The conclusions drawn and the limitations of this ap- proach are described. 19 The Myth of Our Vanishing Resources Harold J. Barnett Washington University, St. Louis June 1967 Reprint from June 1967 Trans-Action pp 6-10 COM-73-11995 The essay examines various pieces of historical evi- dence to support the thesis that worries about scarcities in natural resources are largely exaggerated and unrealis- tic. The evidence dwells upon foods, fibers, and to some extent, mineral (non fuel) resources. It suggests that technological advancement may provide the main reason for abandoning the doctrine of scarcity. 20 Model Specification, Use of Aggregate Data, and the Ecological Correlation Fallacy Eric A. Hanushek, John E. Jackson and John F. Kain Harvard University January 1972 20 pp COM-74-10386 This paper is motivated by the authors' observation that many researchers have confused the interrelated, but analytically separable, problems of data aggregation, of model specification, and of statistical bias in parameter estimation. This confusion has had a profound and con- tinuing impact upon social science research and analy- sis. Citing W. S. Robinson's article, "Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals", as the cause of much of this confusion, the authors consider Robinson's meaning- less correlations, incorrect assertions and empirical ex- amples regarding individuals. They found that in forming his examples, Robinson commits a serious model specifi- cation error which dominates and biases his results at the aggregate or ecological level. The authors demonstrate that had he considered a more complete and accurately specified model, his empirical findings would have been much different and his conclusions, relating to the appropriate use of aggregate data, would have been much more limited and much less severe. In concluding, the authors discuss the advantages of micro data as compared with aggregate data. 21 An Economic Analysis of the Pollution Problems In the Colorado River Basin: The Upper Main Stem Sub-Basin Charles W. Howe, Jan F. Kreider, and Bernard Udis University of Colorado October 1972 234 pp COM-74-11311 This study develops a set of compatible models relating the economic activities of the subbasins of the Colorado River, both present and prospective, to air quality and water quantity and quality resulting from these patterns of economic activity. This model will permit the planner to test some of the environmental implications of alterna- tive growth patterns for the region. This study describes in detail the models which have been developed and calibrated for the Upper Main Stem sub-basin, an area which contains the origins of the most pressing problems of the Basin: salinity, shale oil industry future impacts, and expanded diversions to the Rocky Mountain Eastern slope. This study was published in 1972 by The Free Press. Following a summary review of several traditional tech- niques for regional analysis, the authors discuss resource classification and several critical ecological principles and illustrate how they can be put into an input-output programming framework paralleling procedure used in economic analysis. An interrelations table is developed to show flows between the ecologic and economic systems, and some key interdependencies between the systems are illustrated. A case study is developed involving assessments of the Plymouth-Kingston-Duxbury off shore area as the site for a recreational complex (marinas). A number of analy- tical techniques are applied in arriving at the economic and ecologic costs and the relative profitability of marinas of different sizes at various locations in that region. 23 Economic-Ecologic Analysis for Marine Regional Planning Walter Isard and 0. A. Salama Harvard University June 1970 pp 413-423 Reprint from Marine Technology: 1970, Vol. I This paper attempts to describe some of the ways in which a new conceptual framework is being forged to link both the economic and ecologic systems in a coastal land-marine environment. Some numbers are in- troduced into this framework and these are judged to be valid for the quantification of the relationships involved. The authors focus their attention upon the mounting air, water, and sonic problems of society, its solid waste problem, need for open spaces, and the diverse impinge- ments on the environment. They emphasize the strict economics of regional development and planning, with only passing consideration of physical environment and design, as well as social, political and other cultural factors. To conclude, the control of the disturbance to the ecological and physical processes, and design (even con- scious redesign) of the environment, are key elements of economic development and planning. 24 Six Propositions on the Poor and Pollution, Martin H. Krieger University of California, Berkeley Reprint No. 62 pp 311-324 Reprint from Policy Sciences 1 (1970) COM-74-11204 22 Ecologic— Economic Analysis for Regional Development Walter Isard, Kenneth E. Bassett, Charles L. Chouguill, John Furtado, Ronald M. Izumita, John Kissin, Richard H. Seyfarth, and Richard Tatlock Harvard University December 1968 578 pp COM-74-10638 From the examination of the six propositions relating to the poorer members of the economic stratums and Federal programs for dampening the tendencies for in- creasing environmental pollution, the author arrives at the following conclusions: "The effect of improving the environment may be greater inequities in our society. Current environmental programs maintain this inequity, proposed environmental programs may make things worse, and even if we do improve the environment, contentment may decrease. A political coalition of environmental and equity enthusiasts may provide a viable way out of these dilemmas." 25 Air Pollution Abatement and Regional Economic Development— An Input-Output Analysis William Miernyk and John T. Sears West Virginia University December 1973 216 pp COM-74-10560 The authors of this project examine the probable con- flict between the Nation's regional development programs and its environmental protection programs with particular reference to the State of West Virginia. Since there is no evidence of conflict between the objectives of regional develoment policy and the clean air legislation, this study emphasizes measurement of the direct and indirect costs of compliance with clean air standards. It involves collecting data for the calculation of new direct input coefficients for seventeen of the 48 basic sectors in the West Virginia input-output model. Chapter 6 deals with the gasification of coal. Coal gasification, it is claimed, would make an important contribution to the policy of achieving energy self-sufficiency in the near future. However, these new processes could operate success- fully only in selected development areas. 26 Local Versus National Pollution Control Sam Pitzman University of California, Los Angeles and T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University October 1971 10 pp COM-74-10374 This is a critique of a discussion of public policy on pollution by Herbert Stein in the 1971 Report of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. The authors say it obfuscates an important policy problem raised in the Report: What institutional arrangement can pro- duce information about pollution costs and benefits most efficiently? Stein argues that local autonomy would result in differences in pollution charges for the same service and that this violates the conditions for a Pareto optimum. He therefore concludes that the pricing decision (or the decision on how much pollution to tolerate in a given locale) should devolve upon the Federal government. It is argued that Stein's analysis fails to distinguish between the desirability of a single price and that of having a single price setter, and that it falls to distin- guish between the short and long runs. The authors attempt to show nationally uniform pollution charges are optimal only in the long run and under certain restrictive assumptions, and are not optimal in the present or the short run, and that a temporally efficient set of charges is more likely to emerge under local rather than Federal control. 27 National Growth Policy and the Environmental Effects of Cities George S. Tolley University of Chicago June 1973 49 pp COM-73-11679 This paper is a progress report on attempts to estimate the environmental effects of population distribution policies. The first section presents a framework. The frame- work is then used to estimate the change in national daily travel costs resulting from a policy of retarding growth of large cities. As an example of external effects not privately perceived, attention is next given to urban density. External density gains from increasing a smaller city's population are estimated for two public services. As further examples of external effects, in depth refine- ments are developed for estimating congestion and pollution effects of urban growth, giving attention to the effects of road capacity decisions and to the complexities of air pollution costs within a city. The closing section discusses the broader implication for national growth policy. 28 The Interrelationship of Economic Development and Environmental Quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin: An Interindustry Analysis Bernard Udis, Charles W. Howe, and Jan F. Kreider University of Colorado July 1973 642 pp COM-73-11970 This study develops a set of compatible models relating the economic activities of the sub-basins of the Upper Colorado River, both present and prospective, to air quality and water quantity and quality resulting from those patterns of economic activity. The purpose of such a set of models is to enable the planner to test some of the environmental implications of alternative growth patterns for the region. The report describes in detail the models which have been developed and calibrated for the three upper sub- basins (the Upper Main Stem, the Green, and the San Juan), an area which contains the origins of the most pressing problems of the Basin; salinity, shale oil industry future impacts, and expanded diversions of water of the Rocky Mountain Eastern Slope. Structure of the model. The model consists of three major components: (1) an economic structural or input- output model of the sub-basins, supplemented by coef- ficients of air and waterborne waste residuals for each industry; (2) an air diffusion model to distribute over the region the airborne residuals generated by economic activities; and (3) a hydrologic-salinity model to trace the monthly surface and groundwater flows and salt flows through the system. 29 Natural Resource Protection through Shoreland Regulation: Wisconsin Douglas A. Yanggen and Jon A. Kusler University of Wisconsin 13 pp Published Land Economics pp 73-86 1973 COM-73-11665 This survey describes the law enacted by the State of Wisconsin in 1966 to protect and clear waters and natural beauty of its shorelands. This is part of a larger pollution abatement and prevention act which recognizes and strengthens State regulatory, planning and coordina- ting functions. The numerous legal and administrative questions that beset implementation of the act are dis- cussed in detail including the failure to reach agreement in the need and scope of comprehensive plans upon which to design zoning regulations. Since the law is only recently enacted, several years may be required before its effectiveness can be evaluated. FINANCE 30 The Growth and Importance of State and Local Retirement Funds in the Capital Market of the Southeast Jack L. Cooper University of North Carolina 108 pp 1970 COM-74-10770 The purpose of this study was (1) to identify types and volumes of leakages (exports) of capital funds inter- mediated through regional State and local retirement systems into non-local investment outlets (2) to deter- mine the causes of such leakages, and (3) to examine the feasibility of eliminating or reducing leakages in order to facilitate an enlarged supply of local capital funds for economic development within the Southeast. The study concluded that gross outflows of capital intermediated through State and local retirement systems within the Southeast have increased substantially over the past several decades, as holdings of 'own' govern- ment municipals have contracted in volume, absolutely and relatively, and have been replaced by an expanding volume of new, primary issues of corporate debt originated principally by firms headquartered outside the region. 31 Investment Policies of State and Local Pension Funds Jack L. Cooper University of North Carolina 1970 The purpose of this article is to describe the impact of certain institutional influences, such as financial struc- ture, legal constraints, and internal organizational struc- ture, on the investment decisions of State and local pension funds. The article is organized as follows: 1) existing descriptions or a priori hypotheses of how institu- tional features of three strategic categories of portfolio influences— financial, legal, and organizational— which affect asset choice are reviewed; 2) portfolio data obtained from Bureau of Census tabulations and questionnaire responses received from finance offices of State and local retirement funds within the Southeast are compared to a priori descriptions; and 3) the implications of the evi- dence for investment management are reviewed. The principal implications of the evidence for the future of State and local funds stem from the seemingly pervasive influence of asset-size on virtually all aspects of the portfolio process, together with the associated expanding influence of outside advisers. There is in- dicated a decline in the number of locally-managed funds nationally, and mergers seem likely to accelerate as in- creasing numbers of locally-managed systems merge with state-managed systems, establish cooperatively-managed investment pools, or shift the responsibility to privately- managed investment counselors. 32 Recent Experience with Regional Industrial Subsidies in Ontario Gordon D. Faye University of North Carolina 1973 17 PP COM-74-10859 This paper is an evaluation of the Equalization of Industrial Opportunity (EIO) program adopted by the Ontario government in 1967. The program consisted of financial inducements by the government to secondary manufacturing establishments locating new facilities or expanding existing ones in designated equalization areas (140 municipalities were originally designated as eligible). The author's contention is that the EIO program should be redirected, rather than continue as a policy which promotes the dispersal of secondary manufacturing estab- lishments into a multitude of municipalities. It would be better to determine which urban areas in each of the economic regions of Ontario would be suitable for in- dustrial growth and then use investments to improve in- frastructure of these "growth poles." This would foster the accumulation of services necessary for firms which require external economies in production and distribution of finished goods. 33 Loan Practices of Commercial Banks and Economic Agglomeration Jack Griggs and William Petty University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 8 September 1970 15 pp w/appendix COM-74-11310 This paper has a two-fold purpose. First, in a rather abbreviated manner, it explores the mechanics by which the practices of commercial banks may be relevant to regional growth. Second, it presents the results of an empirical investigation of the correlation between the loan-deposit ratio of commercial banks and the percent- age change in employment for selected Standard Metro- politan Statistical Areas (SMSA's). Data from 143 SMSA's provide empirical evidence sup- porting a priori reasoning that regional economic growth is influenced by commercial bank lending practices. In general, the higher the aggregate loan-deposit ratio of banks in an SMSA, the greater the likelihood that the SMSA is experiencing an increase in the number of people employed within the community. The relationship is true when SMSA's of all sizes are considered together but is strongest for SMSA's within populations under 500,000. The evidence implies that steps taken to increase the propensity of bankers to lend money within a region in- crease employment for the region. 34 The Effects of Size and Legal Organization on the Productive Efficiency of Commercial Banks in North Carolina John A. Haslem (University of Maryland) University of North Carolina March 1973 182 pp COM-73-11980/2 This study attempts to determine the productive efficiency of North Carolina's banking system in 1968 relative to alternative size and legal organizational con- figurations. The paper is divided into three sections. Part One reviews North Carolina's banking history from 1781 to 1968. Part Two is a presentation of the theoretical and empirical approach for estimating the cost of pro- ducing demand deposit services, and a review of other bank services and functions. Part Three is an analysis of the productive efficiency of North Carolina banks. An attempt is made to determine whether the efficiency of banks is influenced by the intra-State level of eco- nomic development, or to what extent the area's economic development may be hindered by the lack of banking ser- vices. The analysis is based upon a comparison between bank costs in those counties in the State eligible for as- sistance from the Economic Development Administration and those not eligible. 35 Property Taxes and the Spatial Misallocation of Resources Donald Haurin University of Chicago June 1973 34 pp COM-74-10011 This paper presents a basic extension of the traditional Muth-Alonso-Wingo model of the spatial distribution of population in an urban area. Section I presents the A-W- M model with one income group and a property tax. It will serve as a simple base to build on, and as a model for the full adjustment suburbs in the city-suburban model. Section II presents the city-suburban model with two income groups. The equations which form the simul- taneous solution are specified and the method of deter- mination shown. Section III presents some estimate of social costs and population distribution given parametric values. Finally, Section IV concludes with comments on the basic problems postulated, the basic flight to the suburbs and the regressivity of the property tax. 36 The Effect of the Financial Community's Structure on the Commercial Bank's Role as a Financier of Regional Growth R. W. Hooker Jr. University of Texas at Austin February 1970 42 pp COM-74-11309 The purpose of this paper is to explore how the struc- ture of "imperfect" financial institutions, especially com- mercial banks, affects the growth and/or growth potential of an area. In order to analyze the relationship between the financial community and a community's growth, the author looks briefly into the nature of a region's business sector, the key to an area's economic growth. It is not the attempt of the author to explain the growth process of a region but merely to point to the relative importance of a small-business community. To conclude, the author feels that more and bigger banks are needed per community in order that the financial community be efficient in satisfying local de- mand for credit. 37 Impact of Investment of State Funds Upon Money and Capital Markets and Economy Within a State: A Study of Tennessee Harry L. Johnson (University of Tennessee) University of North Carolina 1973 29 pp COM-73-12018 This study concentrates on the activities of the Treas- urer's Office of the State of Tennessee in order to examine three aspects of allocating public funds to achieve speci- fied economic obiectives: (1) the quantity and disposition of State funds that are potentially available for use in "linked-deposit" programs and/or incentive deposits; (2) the willingness and ability of the banking community to participate in such a deposit program; and (3) the potential impact of such public deposit programs upon the economy of the state. Using the Baumol-Tiebout model for transactions de- mand for cash on a State government level, the author outlines cash management objectives for State govern- ment. He offers a solution to the problem of determining the amount of revenue deposited by taxpayers in outlying banks in non-interesi bearing accounts with the Lockbox System. The author examines the possible results of a linked- deposit program with respect to the investment facet of cash management. He goes on to approximate the local income-creating potential of an ideal cash balance in- vestment fund through the use of an export base multi- plier analysis. The study is concluded with several suggestions di- rected to the Treasurer of the State for implementing better money management, and includes the necessary requisites of a system that would accomplish these changes in the management of State funds. 38 Optimization of Price Levels and Markets: Insurance Coverage in North Carolina J. Finley Lee University of North Carolina 1973 133 pp COM-74-10110 This paper is a study of the commerical insurance rate- making structure in North Carolina. Its ourpose is three- fold: 1) to compare the rate-making structure in North Carolina with that of other States; 2) to document and analyze the relative profitability and availability of com- merical insurance in North Carolina; and 3) to evaluate whether the current regulatory evironment in North Carolina penalizes domestic insureds. The data used to analyze market size, growth, competi- tion and profitability were obtained through the use of surveys and personal interviews from the North Carolina and Florida Departments of Insurance. Suggestions are developed for legislative action which would improve the situation in North Carolina by promoting more "open" competition among insurance companies, thereby reduc- ing premiums and increasing the forms of coverage available. 39 Commercial Banking in Growth Regions L Randolph McGee University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 34 August 1970 22 pp COM-74-11195 41 Efficiency in Government Investment Koichi Mera Harvard University January 1968 21 PP COM-74-11200 In spite of the inconclusiveness of the particular values derived here, this paper is intended to clarify the basic drawback of the traditional benefit-cost analysis and to present a more logical alternative method for government investment decision making. In fields of government operation such as Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration, the argument for benefit-cost analysis on the basis of market imperfection loses most of its strength because the legislation on which EDA is based is primarily oriented to redistribution of in- come. This being the case, administrators of the agency are often put in the dilemma between the "need and potentiality" criteria. This suggests that either welfare economics or benefit-cost analysis or both are inade- quate as a guide for governmental decision making. Despite whether economics is or is not (can or cannot be) a science, there is a real need of developing a con- sistent decision criterion. The author bases estimates of relative marginal utili- ties on a particular program, the Federal income tax program. This paper's focus is on the issues of banking's role in the process of regional economic growth. The dis- cussion is limited to rapidly growing regions in a devel- oped national economy. Banking's role in regions of underdeveloped nation states may be quite different from the role outlined in this paper, but some of the growth factors discussed herein would be relevant. After discussing national versus regional banking and banking functions in a growth region, the author con- cludes. "It would be presumptuous to suggest specific guidelines for measuring banking performance in growth regions, for regions grow in differing ways and their specific demands for financial services vary. For this reason, the case-study approach seems the most prac- tical." 40 Grants-ln-Aid Economic Incentives Among Governments Martin C. McGuire University of Maryland March 1971 20 pp COM-73-12021 The point of this paper is to present an analysis of alternative objectives of Federal grants and the theore- tical relationship between such objectives and grant-in- aid as an instrument, and draw particular attention to how this relationship depends upon (1) the exercise of monopoly power by the central government, and (2) the structure of local bureaucratic behavior. Discussed are: Interactions Among Local Preferences, Local Resources and Grants— Alternative Objectives for Grants-ln-Aid— Additivity of Federal and Local Expenditures — and Meth- ods for Insuring that Federal Grants are Additive to Local Expenditures. 42 The Impact of Population Loss on Local Government Finances in West Virginia John L. Mikesell West Virginia University December 1972 186 pp COM-73-12020 This study examines the budgetary impact of popula- tion decline on local government finance in West Virginia. The general findings may be applicable to any area experiencing population loss, including the other States found to have lost population in the sixties and localities losing population throughout the Nation. Conclusions are based on a cross-section econometric analysis of counties, school districts, and cities; regres- sions on local expenditure, revenue and assessed value; and a time series analysis of fiscal patterns of a sample of cities, counties and school districts. In the time since the basic research on this report was conducted, important changes have occurred. First, revenue sharing from the Federal government has become a reality. An amendment in West Virginia has made State grants to local governments constitutional. And a con- stitutional amendment has eliminated the property tax on household personal property. Also partial State financ- ing of public school construction has been established. All of these new policies must be considered in inter- preting the predicted outcomes in this work. 43 Sources of Variation in Overhead Capital Investment with Application to Economically Lagging U.S. Counties Duncan R. Miller and Richard Thalheimer University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 23 December 1969 18 pp COM-74-10217 Leading economists are becoming increasingly aware that economic problems persist which are spatially less than national but greater than local or Statewide in nature and are more regional. A salient feature of the EDA approach to regional economic development is identification of- and assistance to- "economic develop- ment centers." The purpose of this paper is to investigate the structure and determinants of public investment in certain of these areas: Directly productive activities (DPA) and public overhead capital (OC). (OC) is sub- divided into two components: social overhead capital (SOC) and economic overhead capital (EOC). (EOC) con- sists of public utilities-transport, including ports, roads, and railroads; electricity and gas production, pipelines, transmission lines, communication networks, etc. (SOC) includes such activities as schools, fire and police protection, public buildings, garbage collection, etc. The general objective of this study is to suggest determi- nants of variation in overhead capital (OC) expenditures. Although the definitive study of determinants of varia- tion in (OC) and its components would require data for a longer period of time, and this data was not available, the study did indicate that variation in public overhead capital among EDA growth centers can be attributed to community area and the rate of growth of nonagricul- tural employment. 44 Public Investment Data System Demonstration Study Operations Research, Inc. November 30, 1969 122 pp plus Appendices COM-74-10842 Following up on an earlier study undertaken by Opera- tions Research, Inc., Feasibility Analysis of a Public Investment Data System (PIDS), (Vols. I and II, May 31, 1967), this report concerns itself with developing a public investment expenditure data base for the Ozarks region which, at the time of the study, included the States of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Under pro- visions of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965, the Ozarks Regional Commission has respon- sibility for assisting the Ozarks region to achieve eco- nomic growth. The data would include information on a county basis and contain the classification of expenditures both by function (health, transportation, education and manpower development and training) and "object of expenditure" (the percent of Federal/State monies involved). The study examines (a) data requirements needed to make PIDS operational, (b) data collection costs, and (c) personnel requirements and costs. On the basis of its finding that the data inputs re- quired from the data base can be easily assembled and that the information to be obtained would far exceed the cost of acquiring it, the study recommends that data systems be designed and implemented within the four States for the purpose of maintaining a public in- vestment data base to serve the needs of the States and the Commission. 45 Feasibility Analysis of a Public Investment Data System Operations Research, Inc. May 31, 1967 Vol I 68 pp— PB 177500 Vol. II 266 pp—PB 177501 The report presents findings and recommendations on the feasibility of establishing a Public Investment Data System (PIDS) which would include data on all public investment expenditures made by Federal, State, and local governments on a county-by-county basis. The report also discusses the feasibility of implementing the data system and presents a design concept for the system. The study was undertaken primarily to assist the regional economic development commissions created under Title V of the Public Works and Economic De- velopment Act of 1965. However, information on public investment expenditures could be a valuable tool in the decision-making centers of the various elements in the public establishment. Volume II— Appendices is divided into three sections: Appendix A includes the findings as developed from the review of data in Federal, State, and local govern- ments. Appendix B presents data availability of proposed PIDS expenditure function. Appendix C contains an evaluation of alternative ap- proaches to PIDS implementation. 46 Industrial-Aid Bonds as a Source of Capital for Developing Regions Olin S. Pugh University of South Carolina No. 23 May 1971 77 pp COM-74-11373 The primary purposes of this study are to determine the principal investors in the market for industrial-aid bonds and to ascertain the degree to which the operation of this market has contributed to the flow of funds to relatively underdeveloped areas of the United States. No one had conducted a significant study of this market until this project was undertaken. This study indicates that market for industrial-aid bonds is national in scope and that these bonds have served as an important in- vestment vehicle for channeling funds to the relatively underdeveloped areas of the nation. The essay will be a valuable source document for potential issuers of, and investors in, industrial development bonds. 47 Contra-Cyclical Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Regions: Can It Be Done? Robert Haney Scott University of Washington April 1970 13 pp COM-74-10615 The author believes the answer is affirmative. He con- siders, on the regional level, the counterparts of na- tional monetary and fiscal policies, the latter in terms of familiar macro-economic models. As to monetary policy, there is evidence that it does matter where funds are deposited, since the national capital market does not have a perfect flow. He recommends that the state level of government undertake to establish a contra-cyclical policy frame of reference in their budget decisions, and that this policy should be coordinated with a group concerned with controlling monetary policy in the State. The State 10 legislature should give a newly-established monetary commission the authority to vary reserve requirements for State banks whenever the local economic situation suggests that the State has already assumed more than its share of the burden of the fight against nationwide inflationary forces. The State authorities should actively encourage branching and the establishment of new banks throughout the State in all situations in which prudent businessmen are willing to put hard money on the line because they believe there exists an adequate market to make another banking unit a profitable enterprise. 48 An Introduction and Overview Of Regional Money Capital Markets Mahlon R. Straszheim Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 49 July 1969 49 pp COM-74-10371 In part because of the general acceptance of the premise that capital markets in the U.S. are so ex- tensively developed and so close to "perfect" on a nation- wide basis, little attention is directed to the measure- ment in analysis of the regional dimension of money capital markets. The author identifies a number of un- answered questions about this phenomenon, and directs special attention to an examination of the extent of regional compartmentalization in capital markets and how this is affected by changes in aggregate credit conditions. An extensive discussion of the data problems in measuring these matters is presented. Regional differences in the major categories of borrowers for capital expenditure are described. The differing roles of each of the major financial intermediaries — Federal Reserve System, Commercial banks, Savings and Loan, etc. are discussed. While elements of the market that exhibit significant regional differences are identified, the author concludes that in most respects the current trends are away from regional compartmentalization and toward national market homogeniety. 49 The Public Sector of the Coastal Plains: A Comparison of Public Expenditure and Tax Behavior in the Coastal Plains Region with other U.S. Regions in 1962 Robert P. Strauss University of North Carolina 1973 13 pp COM-74-10112 This paper is an examination of the public sector of the Coastal Plains to determine if it differs from those in other regions of the United States, and to better understand its role in the Coastal Plains' economic growth and development. An inter-regional-comparison methodology is used, with the development of a utility maximizing model for the public sector and a comparison and analysis of the resulting response parameters (re- gression analysis). Based upon data for 1962, the report's findings show that the urban counties in the Coastal Plains exhibit similar public sector expenditure behavior when compared to other regions of the U.S. While average per capita income is lower in these counties than in other regions, the differences are not as large as those when rural counties for the Coastal Plains and other regions are compared. The inference is that a larger role for the rural sector may hasten growth. 50 Analysis of Alternative Subsidy Programs: Impact on Regional Development SYSTAN, Inc. August 1973 301 pp COM-74-11129 On the assumption that there may be an economic basis for preferring other types of subsidies, i.e. wage and price subsidies, in addition to capital subsidies, the researchers have assessed alternative subsidy forms based on specified characteristics of a region's industries and product markets. This study develops a methodology for determining (1) the best subsidy from among capital, wage and price forms considering simultaneously (a) an EDA goal, (b) the region and its characteristics, and (c) industries and their characteristics; (2) the best specific subsidy program considering de- tailed economic and non-economic factors as well as qualitative factors; and (3) the most appropriate industries to receive EDA subsidies in a region in terms of the types of firms most likely to respond to EDA incentives and thereby further EDA's objectives. The latter effort was implemented by a demonstration of the theoretical workings of the model in three EDA selected regions based on empirical identification of the important regional and industry factors found in the theoretical analysis. The model provides a technique for assessing the relative effectiveness of alternative wage, price, and capital subsidy forms. The research team recommends that further efforts be directed towards (a) refinements of the analysis, (b) implementation of the research effort in additional areas, and (c) application of the technique in responding to legislative initiatives. An executive summary of the report (24 pages) was prepared for the nontechnical reader. 51 Efficiency in Minority Enterprise Programs T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University March 1972 13 pp COM-74-10283 This brief discussion of how means for organizing sup- port for expanding minority entrepreneurship may be or- ganized suggests that sponsorship of programs for this purpose could be for both profit and non-profit making organizations. Financing subsidies are advocated for delinquency servicing and bankruptcy losses. Loan, surety bond and lease guarantees are discussed. Risks for finan- ciers, partial guarantees on collection costs, rapid deci- sion periods based on published rules and immediate payment on guarantees are proposed. Since minority en- trepreneurship is sought for its public benefits, there is a public obligation to protect new entrepreneurs from unnecessary financial risk. 11 52 Fiscal Externalities and Unemployment in a Spatial System George Tolley and Barton Smith University of Chicago March 1973 40 pp COM-74-10109 This paper is concerned with two additional types of externalities other than public goods, congestion, pol- lution, and city size. First is the externality that results from supplying local government services free to resi- dents while financing through taxes levied irrespective of the amount of the services received by payers. The prime example is the financing of education through property taxes. The second type of externality has to do with unem- ployment. A policy such as a minimum wage law is assumed which has differential effects on unemployment among cities. Effects on national income and on the distribution of city sizes are analyzed taking account of migration induced by the policy. Various welfare and unemployment compensation policies are compared from the point of view of total income burden and social unrest resulting from concentrations of unemployment in any one city. In closing, the relation between the different types of externalities affecting city size is considered, and speculations are offered on their importance. 53 The Conceptual Synthesis of the Financial Institution Structure and Performance in Underdeveloped Regions (Chapter V) Charles H. Ufen University of North Carolina 1973 61 pp COM-73-11728 This paper presents an appraisal of the capital market institutions and their interaction on the local level. It is an overview of what local capital markets are presumed to be like, and directs its main thrust at the local capital markets in underdeveloped areas of an econom- ically developed nation. The paper is divided into four parts: Part One reviews the nature of local capital markets and provides the setting for the discussion of local banking markets. Part Two analyzes the structure of banking competition. Part Three examines market interaction among other financial institutions. And Part Four discusses the impediments to full participation by the institutions in the regional de- velopment process, and presents some suggested pro- posals for improving the level of this participation. 54 Small Business Administration Lending Rationale in North Carolina Counties Charles H. Ufen University of North Carolina September 1970 32 pp The purpose of the paper is to identify, if possible, a rationale employed by the SBA in assisting the local capital markets in North Carolina in their task of directing funds to local small-business applications. The paper hopes to test the relationship between SBA loan volume and selected economic variables for the counties of North Carolina. Data for the counties are analyzed in cross- sectional form. The published series of the SBA have been utilized for this purpose. SBA support of State development corporations was not tested in this study, and that area (if data were avail- able) might prove useful for research. Population and (in the cumulative variables) unemployment rates appear to play a role in the channeling of funds into the counties of North Carolina. What is unusual is that population seems to be a greater magnet for loan inflows in the non- SMSA counties. It cannot be maintained that lending leads to higher per capita income, or leads to lower unemploy- ment rates, or leads to higher retail sales. Socio-economic bases for lending may be a more fruitful area for research on this subject. 55 Sources of Equity Capital Used by New and Small Business Firms in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee Van Fenstermaker University of North Carolina December 1972 33 pp COM-74-10132 This study outlines four stages of business growth, providing a description of the individual financing needs and the major sources supplying credit to small business during each stage. Survey questionnaires are then utilized to determine the actual sources of equity capital used by a sample of new and small firms in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. Three major recommendations emerge from the study, which found that commercial banks serve as the primary source of equity funds: 1) permit commercial banks, by regulation, to place a certain percentage of their deposits in long-term equity capital loans; 2) to provide banks with protection, develop a private insurance company or com- panies which would guarantee the repayment of the equity loans; or 3) create a guarantee of repayment through a public firm, such as the Small Business Administration. 56 State Banking Structure and Economic Growth in the Southeast: A comparison of Three States and the Region Clifton H. Kreps Jr. and Richard F. Wacht University of North Carolina 1973 16 pp COM-74-10236 This paper attempts to demonstrate that State banking structures which include statewide, multi-office, branch and group banking systems and which are characterized by a significant concentration of deposits in large banks are better able than unit-banking structures to accom- modate State industrial growth and economic develop- ment. Five annual banking time series and six annual economic time series from 1947-65 were tested by regres- sion analysis for North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and the Southeast region of the U.S. Two hypotheses were examined. First, that State and regional economic growth and development are signi- 12 ficantly related to the financial resources of the respective States and the region. And second, that the respective State and regional banking structures are directly related to State and regional development. The results of the analysis showed that the type of banking structure exist- ing in a given State does have a direct effect on its economic development. And that the differences between a statewide branching system (North Carolina) and a limited branching-holding company system (Virginia) in accommodating economic growth are relatively insigni- ficant. 57 A Government-Wide Program Budget Murray L. Weidenbaum Washington University, St. Louis February 1967 11 PP COM-74-10622 The author designed this study to help provide an im- proved framework for allocating public interest resources. He suggests that a rudimentary program budget for the en- tire Federal government can be developed by basing it on the fundamental end purposes for which the various gov- ernment programs are carried on. Budgets for National Security, Public Welfare and Economic Development are discussed. In summary, the budget preparation process could benefit by making use of a programs or purpose approach to decision-making. In the last few years there has been one very good example of Congressional interest and concern with a functional or purpose approach to budgeting. In the Department of Defense the executive makes the basic budget decisions via such an end- purpose approach. An alternative would be for the Con- gressional committee staff to rework the existing budget submissions within its framework for review by the entire appropriations committees prior to their detailed examina- tion of individual appropriation requests. This is different from the present situation where the overall allocation of budgetary funds is more nearly the accidental result of a myriad of individual budget decisions. 58 Innovations in State and Local Government Finance Murray L. Weidenbaum Washington University, St. Louis February 1967 21 PP COM-73-12028 This working paper explores some of the financial and budgetary relationships between the Federal government and State and local governments. The first section analyzes alternative methods of re- allocating public resources from national to State and local levels. The second section deals with the newer techniques of program budgeting and raises the possibil- ity of their use to improve the allocation of local re- sources. A statistical supplement indicates some histor- ical trends in local government revenues and expendi- tures. In conclusion the author lists some of the major em- erging trends affecting city government finance: 1) The range of functions performed and services rendered by local governments is increasing. 2) The tax structures of local governments are being broadened. 3) The State and Federal role in providing revenues to local govern- ments is being expanded. 4) Probably, following peace in Viet Nam, we will see a major expansion in Federal aid, perhaps also involving a basic change in kind. 5) Finally, an important new planning and budgeting concept is being implemented at the Federal level which may have useful application to other governmental units. 59 The Impact of State and Local Fiscal Policy on Redevelopment Areas in the Northeast James W. Wightman The New England Economic Research Foundation April 1967 391 pp PB 178967 This study is primarily designed to place a dollar cost estimate on the comparative disadvantage of less pros- perous communities in the six States comprising the New England Region, and in New York, New Jersey, Penn- sylvania, Maryland, and West Virginia. The sample of States offers a wide range of tax structures and shared fiscal responsibilities among levels of government. Taxes and some public services rendered in 83 cities and suburbs in these eleven Northeastern States are studied to esti- mate what differentials three hypothetical firms would pay in relative taxes and receive in services in different loca- tions even in the same State. 60 The Determinants of Municipal Finance: A Time-Series Analysis W. Ed Whitelaw Harvard University November 1969 15 pp COM-74-10291 The discussion in this paper takes the point of view that the primary determinants in a theoretical and em- pirical analysis of the municipal decision-making process are economic, demographic, political, and/or social sti- muli from the environment in which the municipal govern- ment is located. The municipal budgetary process is viewed from the perspective of the municipal officers who are assumed to act rationally and to seek satisfaction of the perceived needs of the municipality subject to a budget constraint. These needs can be described by reference to specific economic and demographic variables in the community. The magnitude and timing of the officers' reaction to these perceived needs are influenced considerably by the com- plexities peculiar to the American Federal system, but there has been no attempt in the present study to account for these complexities. There are at least two unique features of this study: (1) the explicit inclusion of a direct budget constraint in the estimating equations; and (2) the specification and testing of an investment mechanism for the major muni- cipal functional categories. 61 The North Carolina Property Tax: Its Patterns of Growth Relative to Other Revenue Sources James A. Wilde (University of North Carolina) University of Wisconsin January 1973 77 pp COM-74-10570 13 This paper is an attempt to measure the extent of property tax responsiveness to economic growth among different counties in North Carolina. The pattern of revenue provided by the property tax is compared to three possible alternative means of local financing. First, localities could switch to new tax bases on their own initiative, such as a sales tax. Second, increased direct participation by State government through revenue-sharing or grants-in-aid. Or third, a form of "tax-sharing" where the State and localities would adopt the same tax base, with the State acting as a collection agency and disburs- ing some of the revenue back to the local areas. GROWTH CENTERS 64 Spontaneous Growth Centers in Twentieth Century American Urbanization William Alonso and Elliott Medrich University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 113 January 1970 28 pp plus appendices COM-74-10231 62 Monetary Variables and Regional Economic Growth Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 2 October 1968 28 pp COM-73-11975/2 This paper is an early version of a study whose intent is to sort out and put together in an admittedly descrip- tive and pedestrian framework some of the major links between monetary variables and the economic growth process in regions. Its purpose is to invite discussion which hopefully will provide a suitable background against which certain decisions will be made about the commitment of resources to a more extended study of this aspect of regional economic growth. The major elements are (1) monetary adjustments and the interregional flow of bank reserves, and (2) risk, monetary factors and capital accumulation. Absence of competition and efficiency in regional financial markets is recognized. Possible directions for future research are suggested. 63 A Case Study of North Carolina's Small Business Investment Companies Harold E. Wyman University of North Carolina July 1970 19 pp COM-73-11682 The purpose of studying North Carolina's Small Busi- ness Investment Companies was to determine: 1. Has the SBIC program been successful in North Carolina? 2. Can the SBIC program be a factor in regional eco- nomic development? The author examines the operations of the North Caro- lina SBIC's, and concludes that the program has not been successful, although he adds a section on ways in which it may have been a factor in economic growth. An epilogue contains comments on stimulating investment in selected regions. This paper tries to describe the magnitude of the role of spontaneous growth centers in the urbanization of the American population since the turn of the century, and some of the shifts that have occurred. It limits itself to a consideration of time series of the numbers of people who lived between 1900 and 1965 in each of the 212 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas as defined terri- torially in 1960. Estimates of net migration into all metro- politan areas (SMSA's) and into or out of each of them were constructed by assuming that they all followed the decade's rate of natural increase in the nation, and that the difference in the observed population at the end of each decade from that which would have resulted from natural increase alone was attributable to migration. Spontaneous growth centers were operationally defined as those which showed substantial in-migration. 65 Hierarchical Diffusion: The Basis of Developmental Filtering and Spread in a System of Growth Centers Brian J. L. Berry University of Chicago Reprinted in Free Press Edited by Niles M. Hansen New York 1972 52 pp COM-74-10610 This paper expands upon Perroux's original notion of poles of growth that diffuse growth through the economy in definite channels. It builds on previous attempts to model the hierachical diffusion process by focusing on models that involve probability maximizing assumptions, and linking national spread and hierachical diffusion of growth opportunities from one urban center to another, to the spread effects within urban fields arising from the use households make of these opportunities. Diffusion of television stations and marked penetration by the television industry in the United States in the period 1940-1968 is used for empirical verification through statistical analysis. The author concludes by asking, "Can growth centers be used to induce development in these lagging poverty regions?" If by "development" is meant bringing population growth to approximately that of the nation with steadily rising real incomes, the models pre- sented earlier suggest several variables to be influenced in achieving such goals: threshold limitations, diffusion times, and accessibility. 66 The Spatial Structure of Urbanization in Appalachia Donald A. Blome University of Kentucky 1969 22 pp 14 The author constructs and tests a model of the sp3tial structure of urbanization in Appalachia, based on the observation that there is a direct relationship between the size and complexity of an urban place and the size of the stream on which it is located. The model is re- latively successful in predicting size, number, and loca- tion of urban places in a specific Appalachian setting, and it provides a basis for classifying the urban settle- ments. It is concluded that, for whatever combination of reasons, the internal migration from the remote hollows and, the external migration to the industrial north has virtually sounded the death knell for the first order, or Frontier I, towns which exist throughout Appalachia. Moreover, if the present migration pattern, both internal and external, continues at its present rate, it would appear that almost all of the present urban structure would be lowered by one order. That is, the first order towns would disappear, second order towns would become first order places, third order towns would go to second order, fourth order to third, etc. A few of the county seats would be targets for migrants and probably retain their fourth order status and the existing fifth order centers, or regional centers would probably show a modest growth for the same reason. 67 Victoria, Texas: Evaluation of a "Growth Center" F. B. Burdine University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 12 October 1970 46 pp COM-74-10401 This paper analyzes whether Victoria should be as- signed growth center status. Contemporary growth pole theory is used to test whether Victoria conforms to the generalizations of that developing body of knowledge. The first part of this case study develops the history of Victoria in a growth center context. Then an analysis is made of contemporary Victoria and its status in terms of a number of socio-economic institutions. It is concluded that concerning tertiary activities, especially government services, trade, communications, finance and medicine, there can be little doubt that Victoria is of vital importance to many people residing outside the immediate county. Future regional policy will likely enhance Victoria's position as a pole of development. The Economic Develop- ment Administration's designation of Victoria as an Eco- nomic Development Center may contribute to its develop- ment, especially if funds are applied to upgrade extern- alities and amenities. 68 Hawaii County— A Case Study in Growth and Development of an Insular Area William D. Coffey University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 3 December 1969 45 pp COM-73-12031 The decline of Hawaii County was the result of many complex factors. Primary among these was the reliance on large scale production of sugar for export, the mechaniza- tion of that activity and resultant decline in employment opportunities which were not off-set by the emergence of a new leading sector. Although Hawaii County has experienced a long-term trend of decline and economic stagnation, external factors can be expected to exert increasing pressures for develop- ment, whether such development is sought or not. While the County of Hawaii enjoys geographical and political advantages over most of the other islands in the Pacific due to its nearness to the North American Con- tinent and its status as a political subdivision of a State of the Union, many of the factors which were pertinent to its decline and later emergence as an expanding eco- nomic unit are applicable to other island regions. The author discusses factors in the decline of Hawaii County, examines sectors of the economy in the light of their potential for growth, and proposes an economic development program, along with some policy considera- tions. 69 Growth Center Strategy for South Texas Michael D. Curley University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 18 October 1969 56 pp COM-74-10118 The purpose of this working paper is to examine the economic circumstances of the population of the twenty South Texas counties designated for EDA financial as- sistance (See Appendix A). Criteria for increasing the welfare of the people (primarily Mexican-Americans) in the area are developed in the context of a regional growth center strategy. Section I of the paper presents the characteristics of the area and its inhabitants with the aim of highlighting the factors that combine to make poverty chronic in the region. The basic regional development strategy and the criteria for selecting growth centers are presented in Section II. The application of the strategy and selection of growth centers for South Texas are completed in Section III. San Antonio appears to be the most efficient place for Economic Overhead Capital investment; it uniquely satis- fies the economic concepts of a growth center. Several other cities — San Angelo, Austin, and Houston — could also be candidates for EOC investment. Corpus Christi and Brownsville, although offering less potential for future growth, could be considered for EOC depending on the policy constraints. The other counties in the lagging region should incorporate Social Overhead Capital invest- ment to remedy their worst affliction-chronic underinvest- ment in human resources. 70 Growth Pole and Growth Center Concepts: A Review, Evaluation and Bibliography David F. Darwent University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 89 October 1968 49 pp plus bibliography 15 Included in this paper are sections on growth poles in economic space and in geographic space, discussing the mechanics of polarization, linkage effects, relation of growth poles to growth centers, relation of growth centers to the polarized region, and the center related to the periphery. An evaluation is made of the concept of a spatial theory of growth, citing positive contributions and deficiencies. The paper concludes with a selected bibli- ography. 71 Growth Poles and Growth Centers in Regional Planning— A Review David F. Darwent University of California, Berkeley 1969 26 pp with references It is the purpose of this paper to unravel some of the immense confusion surrounding the notions of the growth pole and growth center, and to evaluate the concepts in terms of their usefulness and their contribution in ex- planatory and in normative senses. It shows that in some cases the ideas behind the two concepts have been more rigorously developed elsewhere. Conclusions: First, it is evident that the explanatory value of the growth pole and growth center notions is limited. This is undoubtedly because both notions deal with only a limited concept which is part of a much more complex system described more realistically by the detailed input-output table on the one hand and by the notions of the central-place system on the other. As a description of the realities of the occurrence and spatial distribution of development, economic and social, the notions of pole and center are of limited help. It is in the normative that the notions have their greatest contribution to make. The center-periphery con- cept in particular, as described by Friedmann and dis- cussed by others, is the most promising direction re- viewed. By dealing with the whole of economic space in a given region, rather than particular points or areas of it, and by defining sub-regions of the periphery in terms of the problems for which solutions are sought, it is a valuable step towards the prescription of policies for the distribution of economic and social development given a set of goals. The value of the center-periphery model in particular cases is limited as yet by its relative lack of development. Nonetheless, by treating the system as a system rather than by picking up and isolating parts of it, it will be a valuable tool in regional planning. The development of a series of regional statistics by the French government should make such an evaluation a possibility in the near future. 72 The Implications of Rural Urban Migration for Regional Development and Growth Center Policies I. N. Fisher and R. Schuler The New York City Rand Institute August 1972 87 pp COM-73-12029 The objective of this paper is to survey the existing literature on migration and to synthesize the relevant findings and conclusions bearing on the causes, extent and consequences of South-North, rural-urban migration. In particular, the paper attempts to: (1) provide a survey of recent studies of the rural-urban migration process and indicate how the findings of these studies affect Federal growth center programs; (2) identify additional questions concerning the rural-urban migration process that require further study; and (3) assess the researchability of these various questions both from the standpoint of data avail- ability and methodology. In addition, the paper also presents a bibliography of migration research performed over the past ten year period. It suggests there are sev- eral areas in which research and investigation is needed: (1) Disaggregation of the Migrant Population, (2) Theo- retical Models of Migration, (3) Additional Empirical In- vestigation: a) Rural-urban migration linkage, and b) Return migration. 73 A General Theory of Polarized Development John Friedmann University of California, Los Angeles October 1969 67 pp The purpose of this paper is to formulate a generalized theory of polarized development. In several important respects, none of the existing theories that explain the development process in its spatial dimensions can be accepted as an adequate framework for regional develop- ment planning in its more general connotation. The theory developed is stated in five sections: Section 1 distinguishes between development and growth; Section 2 discusses six conditions favorable to innovation; Section 3 links innovation to the concepts of power and authority in territorially organized social systems; Section 4 dis- cusses authority-dependency relation in a spatial system; Section 5 generalizes the core-periphery relation to an hierarchical order of spatial systems. The concluding section discusses the relation of this general theory to existing theories of regional growth, which are shown to be special cases of the general theory of polarized development. 74 Criteria For A Growth Center Policy Niles M. Hansen University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 9 September 1970 40 pp COM-73-11732 This paper develops the general outline of a growth center policy in the context of the United States. How- ever, it ignores or rejects certain notions. These include the doctrine that economic growth should be "balanced" geographically, the approach which takes growth centers to be either exclusively or primarily generators of spread effects to hinterlands, reliance on central place theory in growth center determination, and the identification or association of new towns with growth centers. Following a discussion of these notions, sections are devoted to investment in human resources, the role of big cities, intermediate-sized cities as growth centers, and implementing a growth center strategy. 16 The author concludes that if growth center policy is to be coordinated with human resource development in lagging regions we need much more knowledge concern- ing the trade-offs between "regional development" and worker relocation. As has been argued, many problems of regional development might be dealt with more effectively if they were treated as problems of human re- source development and manpower mobility. There is a pro- nounced need to integrate the research of place-oriented regional economists and the research of labor economists and others concerned with manpower programs in the broadest sense. 75 Growth Center Policy in the United States Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 14 June 1969 21 pp w/footnotes COM-74-10119 Regional policy in the United States is based on two pieces of legislation, both passed in 1965: The Appalach- ian Regional Development Act and the Public Works and Economic Development Act. Both acts are intended to provide financial aid as well as planning and technical assistance to areas experiencing high unemployment and/ or low income. Although no definitive growth center strat- egy has been worked out within the context of these acts, the agencies that have been created to implement the pro- grams which they outline have utilized the growth center concept in their operations. This paper briefly describes and critically analyzes the nature of the growth center policies that have been developed to date, and proposes alternatives based on more efficient use of scarce re- sources than is now the case. 77 A Growth Center Strategy for the United States Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky April 1969 28 pp COM-74-10116 A proposal for a national regional policy based on the development of employment opportunities in intermedi- ate-sized cities, with the condition that a significant number of these opportunities be made available to residents of economically lagging areas. The strategy set forth is based on three propositions: (1) It is not generally feasible to base a national regional stragtegy on the industrialization of rural areas, (2) it is quite probable that our largest metropolitan areas are too big in terms of both economic efficiency and public preference, so that their growth should be, if not checked, at least not encouraged, and (3) with expanded manpower and human resource development programs, and with expanded com- prehensive relocation assistance, it is possible to provide alternatives to rural poverty other than the metropolitan ghetto, the Piedmont Crescent (Charlotte, Durham, Greens- boro-High Point, Raleigh, and Winston-Salem, North Caro- lina; Greenville, South Carolina; and Atlanta, Columbus and Macon, Georgia) is examined as a kind of intermediate area upon which a national growth-center strategy should be based. 78 Growth Centers and Regional Development: Preliminary Considerations Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 5 March 1968 48 pp COM-74-10768 Some 76 A Growth Center Strategy Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky April 1970 32 pp COM-74-11198 This paper proposes a national regional policy based on the development of employment opportunities in in- termediate-sized cities, with the condition that a signi- ficant number of these opportunities be made available to residents of economically lagging areas. The strategy set forth is based on three propositions. First, it is not generally feasible to base a national regional strategy on the idustrialization of rural areas. Second, it is quite pos- sible that many of our largest metropolitan areas are too big in terms of both economic efficiency and public pre- ferences, so that their growth should be, if not checked, at least not encouraged. Third, with expanded manpower and human resource development programs, and with ex- panded comprehensive relocation assistance, it is possible to provide alternatives to rural poverty other than the metropolitan ghetto. At the end of the paper the Piedmont Crescent is considered as the kind of intermediate area upon which a national growth center strategy might be based. This paper critically examines the contribution a growth center strategy might make to help regions whose growth has significantly lagged behind that of the nation as a whole. The first part deals with the issue of public invest- ment priorities in terms of interregional and intraregional opportunity cost considerations. Growth centers and policy implications for EDA are then considered. After examin- ing issues related to the identification and development of growth centers, suggests areas of research which should be undertaken to provide greater insight into these problems and opportunities. 79 Intermediate-Size Cities as Growth Centers — Applications for Kentucky, the Piedmont Crescent, the Ozarks, and Texas Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky and University of Texas at Austin 1971 207 pp This book is devoted to a consideration of growth center policy within the context of the United States. Consider- able attention is given to growth center theory and to growth center policies that have been introduced in other 17 countries and criteria for growth center policy. Four chapters are devoted to detailed case studies of growth centers with relevance to lagging areas, and one to the problems which are most likely to arise in attempts to implement the proposed growth center measures. It is argued that the market mechanism leads to the geographic concentration of economic activity and popula- tion because of the external economies of agglomeration, which accure to firms locating in proximity to other firms; public overhead capital; and a relatively large and well- educated and well-trained labor force. Because firms internalize most of the benefits from agglomeration economies but internalize only a fraction of the diseco- nomies, it is probable that the free play of market forces will result in levels of concentration which exceed those which are socially desirable. The fact that a growing number of countries have been developing policies to curb the growth of large metropolitan areas is indicative of more than rural nostalgia. The growth center strategy developed in this volume concentrates on viable urban centers, which are neither bright spots in generally lagging areas nor large, con- gested, metropolitan areas. 80 A Note on Urban Hierarchy Stability and Spatial Polarization Niles M. Hansen University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 2 December 1969 8 pp COM-74-10115 This paper is a discussion of an article by Professor J. R. Lasuen, "On Growth Poles," Urban Studies, Volume 6, No. 2 (June, 1969), pp. 137-61, in which it is argued that development in advanced countires is becoming less po- larized largely because of an extensive spatial spread of innovations and economic development from the increas- ingly diversified structure of business. The author agrees with certain of Professor Lasuen's points, but notes some empirical evidence that does not support Lasuen's argu- ments. 81 A Preliminary Evaluation of Lexington Kentucky as a Growth Center for the People of Eastern Kentucky Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 11 May 1969 13 pp COM-74-10022 To give some indication of the degree to which and conditions under which problems of unemployment and low incomes in lagging rural areas can be related to job opportunities in an intermediate growth center, the author interviewed a number of leading industrial decision- makers in the Lexington, Kentucky area, as well as Em- ployment Service officials of the Kentucky Department of Economic Security with direct knowledge of employment conditions and migration potentials in Eastern Kentucky. He concludes that although Lexington is a rapidly grow- ing city with a very low unemployment rate there is little feeling of labor shortage on the part of local firms, or at least among the major employers. Employers are not averse to hiring Eastern Kentuckians but they are not interested in any kind of subsidy or assistance that EDA could provide in this regard. On the other hand, some firms are hesitating to locate in Lexington because, at least in part, they feel there is a labor shortage. Whether or not EDA could provide an incentive to these firms to locate in Lexington on the condition that they employ persons from Eastern Kentucky (as well as locally unem- ployed workers) is doubtful. 82 The Role of Growth Centers in Comprehensive Regional Development Policy Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky February 1968 48 pp COM-74-10304 This paper critically examines the contribution that a growth center strategy might make in helping regions whose growth has significantly lagged behind that of the nation as a whole. The first part of the paper deals with the issue of public investment priorities in congested, intermediate, and lagging regions in terms of interregion- al and intraregional opportunity cost consideration. The role of growth centers and policy implications for EDA are then considered within this context. Finally, the paper con- siders a number of issues related to the identification and development of growth centers and suggests areas in which research should be undertaken to provide greater insight into the problems and opportunities presented by a growth center strategy. 83 Factor Migration: Trade Theory and Growth Centers Charles W. Hultman University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 29 July 1970 16 pp COM-74-11199 The purpose of this paper is to examine the growth center and polarization analysis within the framework of international trade theory, particulary as it relates to factor movements and, in turn, to regional growth pos- sibilities. International trade theory suggests that all countries and regions have a comparative advantage, de- pending upon relative factor endowments, which provides a basis for mutually-advantageous trade and economic growth. Furthermore, participation in commodity trade serves to equalize factor prices between regions and is thus a potential substitute for factor movements. This paper explores these two analyses in an effort to clarify certain apparent inconsistencies. Specifically, what conditions must exist in order that commodity trade fails to serve as a substitute for factor movements, since factor mobility is an apparent condition for "polarization" to be accentuated? If trade is mutually advantageous to trading regions, can increasing disparities in growth rates be explained? The major interest is not simply the interrela- tionship between geographical areas, but rather, the nature of the forces interacting between regions in such 18 a way that some experience development and growth while others stagnate economically. 84 The Role of Growth Centers in Regional Economic Development Wilbur Maki and Ever Eldridge Iowa State University of Science and Techonology September 1966 200 pp plus bibliography PB 177542; Supplements: 177543, 177572, 177573 The Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965 provided for "economic'development centers" with popula- tion not in excess of 250,000 and "geographically and eco- nomically so related to the district that its economic growth may reasonably be expected to contribute signi- ficantly to the alleviation of distress in the redevelopment areas of the district." The study examines the characteristics of a growth center— it is usually the major trade, service, social, and employment area for a district— and discusses how these centers can stimulate development in the surrounding areas. It appraises the available research on growth centers and discusses the findings and their implications with respect to policy, the development of information systems, and additional research. It also reviews existing Federal legislation and programs related to regional development and the development of growth centers through the examination of three hypo- thetical districts. By diagnosing the development needs of these districts and attempting to meet these needs, the study reveals the failure of existing legislation, and the "programs" set forth to meet these needs constitute legis- lative recommendations. Three volumes of supplements— A and B, C and D, and E and F — consisting of six papers, are somewhat more technical. They should be of primary interest to staff members of the regional commissions and other readers with a professional interest. 85 A Comparative Factor Analysis Between Southern Regional Growth Center and Urban Center Manufacturing Plants S. M. Klein University of Kentucky 1970 26 pp plus 7 tables COM-73-11703 The present study is designed to help specify the nature and extent of differences, if any, between rural southern in-migrants to industrial growth centers and northern urban workers concerning their industrial adjustment and their cognitive structures pertinent to their factory experi- ences. There are two basic research questions: (a) Are there differences in overall work adjustment between the rural southern in-migrants and the northern urban center em- ployee? and (b) What are the differences in cognition that provide basic understanding of the management of these two different populations? The data used in this analysis were collected from four plants in one corporation. These four plants were among eighteen studied in a larger research activity and were selected on the basis of three criteria: (a) northern urban or southern growth center location, (b) techonology and (c) age of plant. The method of the study is to contrast and compare via attitude questionnaire factor analyses two northern urban center plants and two southern growth center plants. Each pair contained a relatively new and relatively old plant. It was determined that basically the southern plants tend to be more highly satisfied for a relatively long period of time, though after the plant stabilizes and the growth center becomes more heavily urbanized, the same kinds of forces tend to operate in any factory situation regardless of geographical area. A second finding was that, in the main, the northern and southern plant workers tend to regard their factory experience in similar cogni- tive structures. Two major differences were highlighted: (1) the greater saliency of salary factors and group factors in southern plants and (2) greater saliency of the job itself in the northern plants. 86 Growth Center Determination for Del Rio Burtis Lawrence University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 7 June 1970 32 pp COM-73-12026 The Economic Development Administration's approach to the selection of Laredo, Texas, as a growth center might have been appropriate for an earlier era when the problem was absorbing the rural unemployed. To alleviate the contemporary problem of disadvantaged townspeople, a different approach may be needed. Consequently this paper has examined the benefits for the people of Del Rio with respect to the alternative growth centers: Laredo, as designated by EDA, and San Antonio, as suggested by Curley and Milne. The implications of strengthening the relationships of Del Rio with Laredo as contrasted with strengthening the relationships with San Antonio are examined in terms of minimum critical population size forms of economic organization, matrix of social attitudes, and specific regional characteristics. The analysis con- firms the negative reaction of Del Rio people to Laredo as their growth center and suggests that EDA in treating Laredo as a growth center may be engaged in an exercise in futility. 87 Metropolitan Growth Centers in Historical Perspective: Patterns in Economic Growth in Selected Cities in the United States 1899-1964: A Pilot Study in Econometric History John L. Madden University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 35 December 1970 30 pp COM-74-11188 The two primary objectives of the pilot study were first to provide certain insights into the historical process of city growth, so as to aid in formulating growth center policy and secondly to help lay the foundation for a broader based study of growth or the lack of growth in SMSA's. 19 The analysis employed is a conglomerate of ideas within the general context of micro-growth theory— that is, a fu- sion of location and production theory with historicism, the basic criterion being that the economic growth of a region can be measured in terms of changes in the level of income and that the changes of various supply factors provide an explanation of the changes in the level of in- come. Metropolitan growth is viewed as the result of changes in the quality and quantity of inputs as they effect the production capacity of a region. In addition to providing direction for additional work in this area, the study numbers among its conclusions that the primary differential between fast growing cities and slow growing cities is the educational quality of the labor force, and that the evidence suggest that social conflict plays a major role in the growth process of fast growing cities. 88 Selecting Growth Centers N. Dann Milne University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 6 April 1970 38 pp COM-74-10219 This paper shows that current growth center policy is misguided, inefficient, and has harmful misallocation effects. Furthermore, an improved growth center policy is outlined and a new list of growth centers that more adequately serves the people of the lagging region is proposed. The author compares the method used by EDA for selecting growth centers with other selection methods, region by region. He concludes that the develop- ment of a procedure for selecting growth centers from a comprehensive national prospective is essential. More viable growth centers that are actually creating a sub- stantial number of new jobs and are also attracting migrants can be designated by using county and SMSA data on population, employment, unemployment, and migration and income changes. The aim in selecting growth centers is to enhance the welfare of the people of the region. 88 Urban Growth and Growth Centers in Texas N. Dann Milne University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 18 March 1971 37 pp COM-74-10296 This discussion focuses on two of Texas' most important regional problems— unstable urban growth and the lagging region of South Texas. Using data for SMSA's on changes in population, family income, total SMSA income, em- ployment in specific industries, indexes of industrial diversification, and migration, the author forms some policy recommendations. Although urban area diversi- fication is an admirable goal, a solution to the latter problem is much more likely. Given where employment growth is occurring and is likely to occur in Texas, a strategy of human resource development and relocation of workers to growth centers is the most efficient method for increasing income and employment opportunities for the people of South Texas. If the desired goal is improving the welfare of the people of this region, manpower and human resource development to increase mobility poten- tials to rapidly growing places is the most effective method available. 90 Growth Poles: An Investigation of Their Potential As a Tool For Regional Economic Development Vida Nichols Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper Series No. 30 May 1969 55 pp COM-74-10030 This discussion paper is primarily concerned with examining growth poles as a mechanism for bringing about development in a lagging region on the assumption that a regional development policy is considered to be desirable. The analysis is undertaken in the light of general theories on urban and economic growth, and presents some ideas on the feasibility of regional develop- ment policies in general. Sections are included on Per- roux's notion of growth poles and the aims of growth pole policies; aspects of the problems of growth poles; bal- anced versus unbalanced growth; urban growth; growth in the urban system; growth of individual towns; and diffu- sion of economic development. 91 The Ozarks Region: A Growth Center Strategy Eldon J. Nosari University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 12 June 1969 36 pp COM-74-10614 Experience indicates that the most rapid growth takes place in large urban areas offering agglomeration eco- nomies and amenities. Therefore, an attempt to initiate and then accelerate the growth rate in rural areas of small urban places is contrary to the market forces of our dynamic economy. Such a program is not only inefficient in an economic sense, but the public investment required for such a plan would be staggering. However, this is exactly the program offered by EDA and the Ozarks Regional Commission in its effort to develop the Ozarks Area. An alternative to that plan is one based upon inter- mediate-sized urban centers offering both growth potential and an abilty to spread its influence to the depressed hinterland. The author uses employment and migration data to select the most promising urban centers for gen- erating future growth. Three of these centers are located outside the Region, two on the fringe, and one inside. Public investment in these centers would accelerate a growth which is already present and would serve to encourage out-migration from the core of the Ozarks Region, that portion experiencing the greatest underde- velopment. Human resource development should be the thrust of investment funds in this core area. Investment of this nature will facilitate out-migration while making it evident to the people of the Ozarks that they are the important element in the development process. 20 92 On Thresholds, Take-OfFs and Spurts: A Place for SMSA's In Growth Center Strategy Jean Shackelford University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 27 March 1970 19 PP COM-74-10228 Since the 250,000 population figure appears so frequently in discussions of efficient city sizes this study examines population characteristics of SMSA's with particular em- phasis on what happens to them as they approach the 250,000 threshold. Population data for each of the 231 SMSA's (as defined in 1967) were collected for ten year periods between 1900 and 1965 (Appendix I). Of these 231 SMSA's the 25 which had not yet reached a population of 100,000 were omitted, along with the 32 which had well exceeded the 250,000 population when the first observations were made in 1900. This left 155 for consideration. Population was plotted against time for each SMSA. Plots were also made of first differences, percentage changes, and growth on a semilogarithmic scale. As the cities approached the 250,000 level, 88 of the 100 experienced a growth spurt, that is, a large leap in absolute population. In general, then, the evidence supports the proponents of a growth spurt threshold, but suggests that Thompson's 250,000 estimate of the threshold population is a bit low and that a population of 150,000-200,000 would be more accurate. Perhaps the spurt theory could be of help to EDA in selecting growth centers— in that a relatively larger city undergoing a spurt, or in the initial stages of a spurt (in a development area) could benefit more people in the area and consequently would make the best use of EDA funds. 93 Linkages Between Small Metropolitan Areas And Their Hinterlands With Implications for Regional Development Policies Charles T. Stewart and Virginia B. Benson The George Washington University May 1972 89 pp w/appendices A-F COM-74-11191 This is a study of smaller urban centers, the 85 auto- nomous Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) with population in 1960 between 50,000 and 250,000, with the objective of examining the linkages between the SMSA and nearby areas. The study covers all hinterland counties of all the 85 SMSA's. The direction and intensity of interaction is examined as a function of various characteristics of the SMSA's and of the hinterlands, as well as of different relations between them. Some conclusions regarding the differences between SMSA's growing at different rates and with different economic structures in impacts on their hinter- lands are: (1) SMSA growth rate positively affects hinter- land population growth, but is negatively related to the rate of growth in hinterland per capita income, and (2) Hinterland per capita is positively related to hinterland population growth, but negatively related with the rate of growth of per capita income. It follows that growth in hinterland population and in hinterland per capita income are negatively correlated; it may be necessary to make a choice as to which objec- tive to stress. 94 Growth Pole Theory: An Examination of Some of Its Basic Concepts Morgan D. Thomas University of Washington 1970 48 pp COM-74-11195 In this paper the general objective is to try and reduce the ambiguity of growth pole theory by evaluating a number of its basic concepts and relationships. The paper begins with a few comments on contemporary regional economic growth and location theories, followed by a historical perspective for growth pole theory as articulated in the 1950's by discussing various concepts found in the writings of such scholars as Perroux, Chenery and Hirschman. A major portion of the paper is devoted to a critical evaluation of such conceptual elements as the disequilibria of propulsive industries, internal and external economies, technological change and produc- tivity growth and innovations and their diffusion. The con- cluding section contains a few brief suggestions concern- ing work we need to do on some growth and spatial aspects of the growth pole notion. In addition, a number of policy implications are noted stemming from some of the points discussed. 95 Growth Center Staregy in the United States— Evaluation of Spread Effects Richard Yukhin University of Texas at Austin June 1971 20 pp plus Footnotes COM-74-11447 The Economic Development Administrations (EDA) growth center strategy is based on the premise that the growth center will diffuse growth to its hinterland. Three growth indicators — personal income, per capita income and population growth rates — were utilized to determine the economic relationship between the EDA growth centers and their respective hinterland areas in order to evaluate the alleged spread effects of growth centers. Data for the 1959-1968 period were supplied by the Office of Business Economics regional information system; the study covers seventy-seven economic develop- ment districts designated by the Economic Development Administration as of April 15, 1970. Ten districts were excluded due to incomplete data. Regression analysis was applied utilizing the growth center's growth rate as the independent variable and the hinterland's growth rate as the dependent variable. Regres- sion equations were calculated for all growth centers as well as for six different subgroups of growth centers. The findings of this study indicate lack of significant relationship between EDA growth centers and their hinterlands. The lack of spread effects may have been due to EDA's selection of smaller cities as growth centers. A number of policy alternatives are suggested. 21 HOUSING Home Ownership and the Wealth Position of Black and White Americans Howard Birnbaum and Rafael Weston Harvard University March 1972 34 pp COM-74-10458 In the first section of this paper, the authors provide a more complete description of the wealth position of blacks, by expanding Terrell's analysis of their investment portfolios, using the same data source, the Survey of Economic Opportunity. They present tabulations for var- ious wealth categories to provide a foundation for the remainder of this paper. Their analyses indicates that blacks and whites follow fundamentally different patterns of investment: at the same levels of both income and wealth, blacks consistently invest more in consumer dur- ables, especially housing, than do whites. They then examine these differences in investment behavior in the context suggested by Kain and Quigley. Rather, they conclude that these investment differences with black "overinvestment" in housing, relative to whites, may be due to a smaller set of investment opportunities which has been institutionally fostered by an information gap created by the forces of discrimination. 97 A Model for Housing Market Analysis James F. Courtney University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 25 13 pp w/appendix COM-73-11966/1 The model discussed in this report assumes profit- maximizing behavior on the part of suppliers of housing with the restriction that demand requirements be com- pletely satisfied (this restriction can be relaxed some- what). The resulting structure is a network problem which may be solved by the simplex method of linear program- ming. The model presented here is useful both conceptually and operationally. It is useful conceptually because fil- tering, the most basic dynamic aspect of the housing market, is brought clearly to the forefront and the eco- nomic relationships of demand, supply and profit are exposed. Although data requirements are somewhat ex- tensive, the model is extremely useful as an operational tool for housing market analysis. Evaluating the Quality of the Residential Environment John F. Kain and John M. Quigley Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 56 October 1969 24 pp COM-74-10388 This paper, which deals with the measurement of residental "blight" and the identification of its compon- ents, was prepared as part of the analytical backup for the St. Louis Community Renewal Program (CRP). It describes a planning tool to evaluate the residential quality of each block in the city of St. Louis and pro- vides some insights into the nature and causes of blight. 99 Housing Segregation, Negro Employment and Metropolitan Decentralization J. F. Kain Harvard University May 1967 51 pp COM-74-10377 This investigation deals with the relationship between metropolitan housing and market segregation and the distribution and level of non-white employment. Most of the basic data employed were published in an earlier paper, "The Effects of the Ghetto on the Distribution & Level of Non-White Employment in Urban Areas." Hypotheses evaluated in the paper are that racial seg- regation in the housing markets, (1) affects the distribu- tion of Negro employment, (2) reduces Negro job op- portunities, and (3) that postwar suburbanization of em- ployment has seriously aggravated the problem. These hypotheses are tested empirically using data on place of work and place of residence obtained from the home interview surveys' of the Detroit Area Traffic Study in 1952 and the Chicago Area Traffic Study in 1956. too Measuring the Quality and Cost of Housing Services John F. Kain and John M. Quigley Harvard University July 1969 31 PP COM-74-10400 This paper extends previous research by using informa- tion for individual dwelling units and by developing a more complete description of the attributes of the bundle of residential services including measurements of several dimensions of residential quality. Evaluation of residential quality were obtained as a part of three separate surveys of approximately 1,500 households and dwelling units in the city of St. Louis completed in the Summer of 1967. These surveys provided 39 indexes of the quality of the bundle of residential services, including seven measures of the quality of dwelling units, seven measures of the quality of the structure and parcel, eight measures of the quality of adjacent properties, and seventeen variables pertaining to the residential quality of specific aspects of the block face. Factor analyses was the technique used to aggregate the individual quality measures into a smaller number of indexes. A five factor solution accounted for some 60 percent of the variance among the 39 original variables. A brief description and interpretation of each of the five quality indexes (factors) is provided. Major conclusions point out the extreme complexity of the bundle of residential services consumed by house- holds, and that the development of truly useful models will require much more extensive bodies of data represent- ative of the entire metropolitan housing market. 22 101 Postwar Metropolitan Development: Housing Preferences and Auto Ownership J. F. Kain Harvard University December 1966 26 pp COM-74-10431 This paper addresses itself to the reconciliation of the conflicting views about the causal relationships between automobile ownership and net residential density. Eco- nometric models are estimated based on the hypotheses that: (1) residential' density depends on auto ownership per household, income, and preferences for residential space with unidirectional causality from auto ownership to density; (2) auto ownership per household depends on residential density, income and household transportation requirements with unidirectional causality from residential density to auto ownership; and (3) automobile ownership and residential density are jointly and simultaneously determined. The results of tests of each hypothesis and their short- comings attributable to data deficiencies are discussed in detail. 102 Theories of Residential Location and Realities of Race John F. Kain Harvard University June 1969 35 pp COM-74-10287 This paper is an attempt to synthesize existing "eco- nomic" theories of location and the considerable body of empirical and descriptive research on housing market discrimination. The discussion begins with a brief survey of the empirical research on the extent and causes of residential segregation in American cities. Then a modest beginning is made at introducing racial discrimination into "economic" models of residential location. The final section uses the results of these explorations to comment on the prospects of our cities and what the author regards as appropriate policy responses. 103 Permanent Income, Instrumental Variables, and the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand Richard F. Muth (Stanford University) Washington University, St. Louis Working Paper EDA 12 December 1970 40 pp COM-74-10026 This paper presents instrumental variable estimates of the income elasticity of housing demand obtained from a variety of kinds of data. In Section 2, estimates of the income elasticity of housing expenditure are derived from census data, both for census tracts on the City of Chicago's south side and for various central cities. Section 3 presents similar estimates from 1950 Survey of Consumer Expenditure data on housing expenditures and income aggregated both by occupational and by educa- tional groupings. Section 4 estimates estimates from two different types of time-series data. In each of these sec- tions the nature of the data and the special problems they present are discussed. The more important explanatory variables included along with income are noted, and the rationale for the selection of specific instruments is de- veloped. Finally, the instrumental variable estimates obtained are compared with results from ordinary least- squares regressions. Section 5 shows alternative instru- mental variable and ordinary least-squares estimates ob- tained from treating housing expenditure and income in turn as dependent and summarizes briefly this paper's findings. 104 Housing Market Discrimination, Homeownership and Savings Behavior John M. Quigley and John F. Kain Harvard University January 1970 29 pp COM-74-10429 The variety of housing available inside the ghetto is very restricted. This and the difficulties of obtaining hous- ing outside the ghetto unquestionably have distorted Negro housing consumption. This paper discusses one such distortion: the much lower probability of homeownership and purchase by blacks, even after standardizing for white-nonwhite dif- ferences in income, family structure, and other household characteristics. One consequence is that Negroes have less opportunity to take advantage of the favorable income tax provisions available to homeowners. These and other potential savings from homeownership will usually amount to a good deal more than the discrimination markup. Moreover, impediments to homeownership may have re- duced Negro savings rates, denied Negro households the most important inflation hedge available to low-and middle-income households, and robbed the Negro com- munity of an important method of capital accumulation. 105 A Neglected Aspect of Housing Behavior in Housing Programs For the Urban Poor William R. Russell and Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky November 1969 40 pp COM-74-10117 This paper, like "Short-Term Activity in Residential Construction Markets" by Alan R. Winger, lays certain groundwork for a subsequent paper on elements deter- mining regional housing adjustments when low-income migrants enter these markets. It discusses the impact on housing conditions of differences in the way in which families use their housing. Critical features of housing programs for the urban poor are discussed, as are factors that determine the level of upkeep. Data are developed that illustrate the vitiating effects that result from "hard-use" occupants. Neighbor- hood effects as a factor of deterioration are discussed, as are conflicting bits of evidence concerning the reasons for the great variation in the rates at which public housing projects deteriorate. 23 106 Non-Whites in the Metropolitan Housing Market Irving R. Silver Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 1, 1970 81 pp This paper is an investigation into the determinants of housing consumption patterns within metropolitan areas, particularly non-white households, and studies the factors which contribute to the inability of non-whites to improve their income levels relative to the white population. 107 Notes on the Urban Ghettos and the Housing Market Irving Silver Massachusetts Institute of Technology Seminar Discussion Paper Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 11 PP COM-73-11987/7 This study analyzes the changes in quality of housing occupied by urban non-whites as revealed by the Censuses of Population and Housing in 1950 and 1960. It discusses market factors that affect the rate at which the proportion of substandard housing is reduced. Problems associated with prediction of anticipated upgrading in housing quality are discussed, and data on changes in white and non-white occupancy rates for selected SMSA's are pre- sented. The notes close with a discussion of costs in- volved in eliminating substandard housing in urban areas. 108 The Supply of Urban Housing Barton A. Smith University of Chicago June 1973 47 pp COM-74-10391 The primary emphasis in this paper is to fill at least partially the important gap in understanding the supply side of urban housing, and in particular what is sought are good estimates of supply elasticities. The main ob- jective is to construct a framework and to obtain empirical estimates of relevant supply elasticities that will enable one to handle such important policy issues concerning urban housing markets as: the economic effects of hous- ing subsidies, the incidence of the urban property tax, and the relationship between city size and the price of hous- ing. For example, proposals to replace current supply oriented capital subsidies with demand oriented low in- come housing allowances can only be properly evaluated if the private market response to demand changes can be predicted. Of particular concern is whether the supply elasticity of housing services is so low that demand oriented subsidies will just primarily raise the price of housing services rather than increase the aggregate out- put of housing throughout the community. In concluding, the author states that much more effort can be devoted to the policy implications of the completed model in this paper, with most of the work concentrating on the effects of housing subsidy programs. In particular, it is expected that some important conclusions should be able to be made on the predicted impact of housing allowance programs upon housing prices, the aggregate supply of housing, the distribution of housing quality, and neighborhoods within the urban "core." 109 The Supply of Urban Housing: Some Empirical Results Barton A. Smith University of Chicago June 1973 15 pp COM-74-10237 This paper presents some of the progress on the empirical work associated with the study of the supply of urban housing. In essence, what is being sought are good estimates of urban housing supply elasticities, where two dimensions of housing are considered, density and the quality of each dwelling unit. These elasticities will ultimately be used within an aggregate urban model. In Section I an empirical technique was developed such that by comparing the changes in total expenditures per area and land value per areas one could estimate the quality and density supply elasticities implied. 110 Housing the Low-Income Migrant: An Issue in Regional Development Alan R. Winger and Gary Mammel University of Kentucky June 1970 18 pp plus footnotes COM-74-11189 This study deals with the presumption that where regional development policy chooses to endorse some form of growth center strategy, the provision of adequate housing then becomes an explicit element in regional development plans. The authors review the major writings on housing for low income groups and identify the factors that tend to force rural in-migrants into substandard hous- ing commonly associated with urban ghettos. The forces of supply and demand that militate against providing an adequate stock of housing, especially in areas selected as growth centers, are identified and some alternative ap- proaches to our traditional views of the operation of the private and public housing markets examined. Ill Mover, Origin, Residential Construction and the Urban Form Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 26 February 1970 21 pp COM-74-10670 This paper investigates the relationship between the origin of family moves and residential construction in the community into which the family moves, and discusses some of the relations between residential mobility, hous- ing market activity, and residential construction in urban communities. 24 112 Residential Construction, Acceleration and Urban Growth Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky February 1970 19 pp COM-74-10310 This paper explores the. theoretical and empirical foun- dations of the links between the housing industry and final demand via the acceleration principle. The concep- tual relation between this principle and residential con- struction in urban areas is spelled out. This is followed by a presentation of the results of an empirical investiga- tion of the relationship. In the final section, the implica- tion of these findings in terms of some current ^issues in the analysis of urban economic growth is considered. 113 Residential Construction and The Urban Housing Adjustments of the Migrating Household Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 25 February 1970 22 pp This paper is concerned with the housing adjustments to be made by inter-regionally migrating households. The first section offers a statement of the nature of our hous- ing market activities. The second section the conceptual links between residential construction and the housing demands by the in-migrant. These links provide the foundations for an empirical analysis which follows. In the final section certain policy implications of both the conceptual and empirical portions of this paper are considered. 114 Short-Term Activity in Residential Construction Markets: Some Regional Considerations Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky November 1969 Discussion Paper No. 22 44 pp COM-74-11197 The purpose of this paper is to lay certain groundwork necessary for a subsequent discussion paper that deals with elements determining regional housing market ad- justments when migrants enter these markets. A statistical model is presented in which the relations between hous- ing starts, employment, savings deposits and a financial mix variable are investigated in terms of a time period encompassing a cycle phase (t), and a period in which the focus is on the differences in the values these vari- ables take in consecutive cycle phases. It is concluded that while demographic factors are apparently not revealing of elements which influence short-run construction in the nation as a whole, they most certainly are when the concern is with regions. The way in which certain aspects of the effects of mortgage mar- ket changes are distributed geographically has impact on the pattern of short-run residential construction move- ments that must be taken into account in regional studies. This point has been made before, but never in a way which has yielded insights into how these changes per- meate through to the actual construction process. IMPACT OF PUBLIC POLICIES 115 Measuring the Regional Impact of Government Spending David Barkin University of Washington, St. Louis Working Paper EDA 10 May 1968 15 pp COM-74-10650 This paper questions the use of the whole population for establishing criteria for measuring and evaluating the distributional impact of government expenditure programs. The author argues a different measure should be used in which the focus is placed on the legislative objectives of individual programs rather than on the existing distribution of income for the population as a whole. Four government expenditure programs are examined to determine the relationship between the distribution of people eligible to receive benefits from the program and the dispersals of money among the States: education, farm price support, veterans payments, and public assis- tance. It is concluded that, if these programs are truly to provide a level of services to specific groups of people, then the distributional criterion for the funds should be the ability of the areas in which these groups reside to supply the desired services. 116 The Implications of Vietnam De-Escalation for The Commonwealth of Massachusetts Donald R. Boulanger Harvard University Report No. 15 August 1969 68 pp COM-73-12012 This report develops a multiregional input-output model for Massachusetts and examines the implications, based upon 1967 data, of a Vietnam de-escalation on industry and employment. Four alternative situations were analy- zed: (1) the actual 1967 gross output by industry; (2) a 25 percent decline in federal defense spending with no compensatory spending; (3) a 25 percent cutback with compensatory private spending; and (4) a decline of 25 percent with compensatory public and private spending. The study provides insights into two major areas: (1) What industries in Massachusetts are most depend- ent on defense spending related to Vietnam, and what is the extent of unemployment expected from a loss of defense markets? (Comparisons are also made between Massachusetts, New England, and other regions of the United States.) (2) Are government spending or tax policies, on a Fed- eral or State level, desirable to ease the economic transi- tion? 25 117 The Effects of Financial Incentives on Industrial Development Sharon F. Chow University of North Carolina 1973 24 pp COM-73-11979/4 This paper provides an overview of the role of financial incentives in the establishment of new or expanding in- dustries, and examines the application of subsidies such as industrial development bonds, tax credits, and acceler- ated depreciation allowances. Considerable attention is given to a discussion of a Nixon Administration proposal (S.15) introducing large taxation credits for those firms locating in qualifying rural areas on the condition that they hire a specified part of the local labor force. The study also includes an analysis of the relevance of in- centives in achieving the regional development objectives of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. 118 Long-Run Regional Development and Policy Impacts: A Case Study of Puerto Rico CONSAD Research Corporation December 1973 151 pp COM-74-10555 This final report summarizes CONSAD's efforts to per- form the conceptual formulation, statistical estimation, and empirical testing of a set of regional econometric models of Puerto Rico. It contains a detailed explanation of the statistical methodology employed to divide the Com- monwealth of Puerto Rico into several mutually exclusive and exhaustive economic regions. Data limitations are discussed. The empirical results of the statistical estimation of the revised model and the precision of each estimated equation in this model are summarized. Estimates are given of the impact of investment in each type of social overhead capital defined in this study upon production in each industrial sector of each region of the common- wealth. The implications of these economic impact esti- mates for public policies intended to stimulate economic growth and development are also discussed. Finally, the report presents both a summary of the most notable suc- cesses and disappointments encountered in this empirical study and a discussion of the implications of CONSAD's research experiences for future data generation efforts and empirical investigations. 119 A Study of the Effects of Public Investment CONSAD Research Corporation May 1969 248 pp plus annotated bibliography PB 184084 Using a sample of 195 small municipalities in Missouri, three sets of potentially causal variables were used to analyze growth in aggregate income between 1960 and 1963: city size, community characteristics, and stock of public works. This heuristic technique showed that just over half the increase was attributed to city size, 17 percent to community characteristics, and 30 percent to public works infrastructure. The report also includes a study in intergovernmental relations, describing the theoretical structure of local behavior allocating municipal budgets for public works, and a conclusion describing steps for further developing a cost-benefit allocation procedure for EDA. 120 An Analytical Framework for Studying the Potential Effects of an Income Maintenance Program on U.S. Interregional Migration Julie DaVanzo The RAND Corporation December 1972 91 pp An econometric model explaining 1955-1960 gross migra- tion rates among the nine U.S. Census divisions is estimated for all sex-color education cohorts of persons aged 25-29". Aggregate data from the 1960 Census are used; shortcomings of these data are discussed. Unique features of this study are: 1. The ability to finance investments in migration plays an important role. 2. For married people the decisionmaking unit is the family rather than the individuals. 3. A wide range of demographic groups, including wo- men and nonwhites, is studied in the empirical analysis. 4. Some new explanatory variables (military indexes, and income-distance interaction term) are included in the econometric model. Migration is viewed as an investment in human capital. Six hypotheses are proposed that should be explored in future work. Several data sets that could be used to test hypotheses are discussed. 121 Suggestions for Assessing Economic and Demographic Effects of Income Maintenance Programs Julie DaVanzo and David H. Greenberg The RAND Corporation June 1973 101 pp This report summarizes the main findings of research performed under grant entitled: "Income Supplements and Regional Economic Development." It discusses the prin- cipal issues and problems in estimating the effects of income maintenance legislation, evaluates the reasonable- ness of further empirical study of this issue, and provides specific recommendations for future research. 122 A Simulation of Some Possible Outcomes of the Proposed "Community Self-Determination Act" Matthew Edel Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1969 25 pp COM-74-10290 This paper projects possible outcomes of the organiza- tion of community development corporations under the Community Self-Determination Act (Senate Bill No. 33 26 (1969)). The projections are based on a number of assump- tions as to the size of the program, types of investment made, likely profitability of the investments, and govern- ment expenditures. The results indicate that a program of the sort proposed in the Act stands a reasonable chance of success. 123 A Preliminary Analysis of the Economic Effects of the Urban Employment Opportunities Development Act Jack Faucett Associates August 1967 54 pp plus appendix PB 185725 This report presents the results of a preliminary study of the potential economic impact of the Urban Employment Opportunities Development Act of 1967 (Senate Bill S.2088, Congressional Record-Senate, July 12, 1967). Estimates of investment and employment which would be generated in 19 poverty areas in 102 SMSA's are made on a three- digit industry basis. The effects of the Act upon Treasury Department tax receipts and income levels in poverty areas are also evaluated. 124 Technological Innovation and Public Policy Glenn Gilman Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper 18 May 1970 34 pp COM-74-10879 This paper attempts to distinguish the meaning between invention and innovation (the trend of the technological development). It points out the need of a national con- sensus supporting a high rate of technological innovation in the private economy. However, the author believes that neither our corporate laboratories, nor our university research facilities at present, can meet the need for innovative accomplishment alone or in combination. He stresses the role of individual inventors in the future, as they have done in the past, in bringing small technolog- ically-based firms into being. In doing so, it is imperative that formal institutional support should be provided for them. Finally, he proposes that the existing institutional support given by such Federal agencies as Office of In- vention and Innovation, the Economic Development Ad- ministration, and the Office of State Technical Services within the Department of Commerce should be broadened and redefined so as to encourage and support the innova- tive activity by individuals and small firms. The approach should be made as a part of the overall policy for the support of scientific research and development in the United States. 125 Problems of Model Specification and Measurement: The Labor Supply Function David H. Greenberg The RAND Corporation December 1972 79 pp COM-74-10726 This report examines some of the advantages and dis- advantages of different approaches using cross-sectional data in estimating the labor supply effects of alternative income maintenance programs (IMP's). The study is based on a detailed review of the methodologies utilized in pre- vious cross-sectional investigations of labor supply and is intended for use in conducting and evaluating future empirical research on the impact of alternative IMP'S on national and regional labor supply. It discusses the im- plications of making one methodological choice rather than another and points to areas, such as the selection of the sample population, where improved data or theory can contribute to improving labor supply estimates. Exist- ing cross-sectional data sets are examined followed by a discussion on testing for regional differences in labor supply parameters. The report concludes by suggesting that an important step in obtaining improved labor supply estimates is to construct sensitivity tests to examine the empirical significance of using one methodology rather than another. 126 Regional Analysis of Federal Expenditures Curtis C. Harris Associates Inc. July 1969 41 pp COM-74-10635 This report is a presentation of research undertaken for a Bureau of the Budget-Economic Development Ad- ministration Joint Project in 1969. The purpose of the project was to collect data files in an effort to analyze the association between different categories of public expenditures and economic and demographic variables by groups of counties. The report describes the data processing done in order to organize the data for analytical purpose, and provides some results of the analysis. A further examination of the data will enable a comparison to be made between the expectations of regional distributions of expenditures and the actual distributions. 127 Regional Economic and Social Analysis of Federal Expenditures Curtis C. Harris Associates Inc. December 15, 1970 58 pp This report is a continuation of a joint project under- taken by the Bureau of the Budget and the Economic Development Administration, as reported in "Regional Analysis of Federal Expenditures" (July 1969). The purpose of the project was to collect data files to analyze the association between functional categories of Federal expenditures and selected economic, social, en- vironmental and demographic variables. This report pro- vides Federal expenditures for 1969, as well as additional economic and demographic data and social indicators on health, crime and pollution. 27 128 Employment and Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages Masanori Hashimoto and Jacob Mincer National Bureau of Economic Research August 1971 57 pp This paper adds an analysis of supply effects to the usual treatment of demand effects arising from a change in the minimum wage and presents an empirical explora- tion of these responses to wage changes in demographic subgroups (classified by age-sex-color) of the U.S. labor force using data from 1953-1969. The method used was ordinary least squares incorporating distributed lags for the minimum wage variable. Regressions utilizing both quadratic and no trend specifications are compared. It is concluded that the sensitivity of the regression estimates to the trend specifications is indicative of the need for a substantive specification of the demand and supply equations in the labor market model. 129 Unemployment Effects of Restricting Chicago Growth John Hekman University of Chicago December 1972 20 pages COM-74-11128 This study pursued the limited goal of measuring the expected unemployment cost of a reduction in city size which is initiated by a cut in labor demand. The other approach would have been that of inducing population to move and measuring the cost of having their jobs follow them. The study also restricts itself to a broad method of reduction in labor demand, that of a flat 10% cut in the entire SMSA. The alternative of reducing certain indus- tries, for example, those which cause the most pollution, would entangle the estimate immediately in question of input-output coefficients and skill mix. But the scope of this study is primarily the migration response of the popu- lation given a certain reduction in labor demand. The best guess as to what kind of jobs were eliminated is all kinds of jobs equally. Other assumptions of the skill mix of those being required to move would not have changed the focus of the work. 130 On the Regional Economic Impact of Government R and D Spending Ira Horowitz Indiana University May 1966 16 pp COM-74-10644 This essay is an examination of the regional distribution of scientific talent and the role of government (specifically the Dept. of Defense) in the process. The author develops a simultaneous equation econometric model to evaluate the economic implications and welfare aspects of regional research and development, and consequently of govern- ment spending for R and D in particular regions. It is argued that R and D efforts have very favorable effects on a region's economic welfare because the results of this research and development tend to be exploited by firms on the regions housing the firms' R&D facilities. And, in effect, when a corporation in a particular region prospers, there are tangential benefits for the rest of the region as well. It is further concluded that the geo- graphic distribution of scientific talent is significantly influenced by R and D spending patterns of the Dept. of Defense, and that the geographic distribution of scientists in turn exercises considerable positive reinforcement on the regional distribution of economic welfare. 131 Analysis of the Special Revenue Sharing Proposals James Hosek National Bureau of Economic Research December 1971 36 pp This paper is a preliminary examination of the impact on the interstate distribution of costs and interstate changes in net benefits which could be expected if six special revenue sharing programs (SRS) proposed by the Nixon Administration were to replace many existing cate- gorical grant programs (CG). The SRS programs include: law enforcement; manpower; urban and rural development; transportation; and education. The impact was measured by constraining each of the SRS programs to be equal in size to the CG programs it would replace, and by assuming that in each case the programs were identically financed. It was concluded that many States would have major losses under their respec- tive SRS programs, that the CG programs were more re- sponsive to special needs and conditions, and that the SRS allocation formulas required revisions. 132 Regional Effects of Government Procurement and Related Policies Report *of the Independent Study Board U.S. Dept. of Commerce, EDA December 1967 107 pp COM-74-10018 Section 301(e) of the Public Works and Economic De- velopment Act of 1965 directed the Secretary of Com- merce to appoint an independent board to study the effects of Government procurement, scientific, technical, and other related policies, upon regional economic de- velopment. This publication is based on the results of the Inde- pendent Study Board's findings regarding procurement ex- penditures and the policies they reflect, that form the basis for the changes recommended to promote more ef- fective regional development. Much of the analysis was based on back-up statistical reports by CONSAD ("Region- al Effects of Federal Expenditures") and by Ira Horowitz ("On The Regional Economic Impact of Government R and D Spending"). 133 Impact of Viet Nam War Expenditures on the Philadelphia Economy Walter Isard and Thomas W. Langford Jr. Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper No. 29 May 1969 49 pp COM-74-11443 28 This paper examines the direct and indirect impact of Viet Nam War expenditures upon the Philadelphia economy through the application of a regional input-out- put model. Federal government expenditures for fiscal year 1968 are analyzed under peacetime conditions, as are different offset programs (low-income housing and educational programs) which could absorb resources which might be released by a contraction of the war effort. The difference between actual expenditures and estimated Federal agency expenditures (approximately $284 million), is an indication of the magnitude of the funds (and as- sociated productive capacity) that might have gone into other government programs or private ventures. 134 Regional Impacts of the Family Assistance Plan John Kain and Robert Schafer Harvard University June 1971 69 pp COM-74-10759 This paper presents estimates of the impact of the Family Assistance Plan (FAP) and similar income mainte- nance schemes based on an analysis of data from a 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity. Regional economic de- velopment, regional poverty, and net migration between the South and the rest of the Nation (through the use of a modified Bowles econometric model) are examined. The analysis indicates that income assistance at the FAP level and similar or extended versions would: 1) have a small but important impact toward reducing regional variations in the incidence of poverty; 2) be a significant stimulant to the economy of the South; and 3) have a modest impact on migration, primarily net white migration. 135 Southeastern Connecticut Economic Readjustment Study Robert R. Nathan Associates December 1968 178 pp COM-74-10663 This study is an analysis of the economy of South- eastern Connecticut, the role of the defense sector in the economic structure of the area, and the existence and availability of educational and training facilities. The response of the public and private sectors to the area's growth potential and development needs is examined, and an attempt is made to identify the key factors required for changing the resources of the area in order to influ- ence development. Both strategies and recommendations for improving the economic development of Southeastern Connecticut are offered. The three overall conclusions of the study are that: 1) the defense sector is strong and relatively stable, and will continue to dominate the region's economy; 2) nondefense manufacturing employment has grown and diversified, and could grow at a faster rate if a suitable labor force were available; and 3) programs to assist the area's economic development should support not only the nondefense manufacturing sector but also the defense sector. 136 The Impact of Science and Technology on Regional Economic Development National Academy of Sciences January 1969 111 PP COM-74-10862 This report is an assessment of national policies re- garding research and development in the context of regional economic development. The characteristics of regional growth and research and development are ex- amined, as are the major objectives of Federal policies in these fields. The report sets forth both specific pro- gram recommendations and findings, and recommenda- tions in terms of broad objectives, as well as mechanisms for their implementation. 137 Federal Tax, Transfer and Expenditure Substitutions National Bureau of Economic Research April 1973 Vol. 1, 330 pp; Vol. II, 350 pp COM-74-10612 This is a two-part study examining changes in the federal tax-expenditure policy and potential alternatives in the system of Federal assistance to States and locali- ties, Part I contains a study of the first round price effects from the substitution of a value-added tax for the corporate income tax (the direct and indirect effects are derived through the use of an input-output model). The implications of price changes for investment, income distribution, international trade, and State-local fiscal variables are examined. The input-output model being used is then enlarged to analyze the economic consequences of disarmament. This enlarged model has been developed into a system known as IDIOM (an Inter-Industry, National-Regional Policy Evaluation Model). Part II contains a selection of papers on Federal revenue sharing. The first two papers provide estimates of net, State-level changes in Federal assistance associ- ated with the introduction of revenue sharing as opposed to some alternative. Other papers include an analysis of the intrastate consequences of revenue sharing, and 'a study of an alternative to revenue sharing— a set of Fed- eral personal income tax credits for certain State-local taxes. 138 Defense Expenditures and the "Rural-Urban Balance" Orin C. Patton University of North Carolina 1973 34 pp COM-73-11726 This paper attempts to examine the regional impacts of defense expenditures in the rural-urban context. The "rural-urban balance" refers to that distribution of popu- lation between the rural and urban sectors that will maximize aggregate social welfare. The study is limited to the analysis of the patterns of concentration of variables such as the regional distribu- tion of total personal incomes, defense generated incomes 29 and their different components, and the regional patterns of urban and rural populations. These are then compared to the possible consequences of changes in defense expenditures due to changing aggregate levels, changes in the product mix of defense, or changes in the regional distribution of expenditures. The results show that the potential role of defense expenditures as policy tools in solving the rural-urban balance problem is doubtful. 139 The Economic Impact of an Airport Richard Peeples University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 24 1971 17 pp w/tables & footnotes COM-74-10646 This paper is a brief survey and analysis of the direct and indirect economic impact of airports on their sur- rounding areas. Because the effects vary widely with air- port size and function, the airports are divided into 2 classifications: common carrier and general aviation air- ports. After discussing the impact qualitatively, the effects are quantified through the application of input-output techniques (1963 data). Although an airport's economic impact on a region will vary with many factors peculiar to the region (the location of the airport itself, the area's physical and demographic characteristics, etc.), there seems to be little doubt that the presence of an airport with some minimal level of service does have an economic impact on the community. 140 Private Enterprise and the Poor— Does a Partnership Make Sense? Robert S. Robin Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1969 38 pp COM-74-10657 government spending in the United States, and analyzes the shifts in the economic impact for 1947, 1958, and 1962. The study is based upon the Leontief multiregional, intranational input-output model for the U.S., consisting of 42 national industries, 14 local industries, and 17 regions. The analysis shows that labor earnings generated by Federal government spending are increasing in rela- tive importance in the American economy (from 13 per cent in 1947 to 20.6 per cent in 1962), but that the aggregate change is distributed unevenly among the differ- ent regions and different industries. 142 The Social and Psychological Consequences of Intragenerational Mobility Dean G. Rojek University of Wisconsin 1973 29 pp COM-74-10559 The relationship between prior and present socio-eco- nomic status and ten indicators of social and psycholog- ical stress are examined for mobility effects. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the construction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois are compared to parallel data from a control region across the State. Dummy-variable, additive regression models are employed. The findings provide little, if any, support for suggesting that mobility has disruptive consequences. 143 Problems and Challenges Faced by Rural Communities with Industrial Development John T. Scott Jr., University of Illinois Urbana and Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin July 1972 23 pp COM-74-10543 One current approach to poverty puts private enterprise, not government, at the center of the action. This paper is an analysis of the fiscal aspects of the Community Self- Determination Act (CSDA) to see how and if they work and to look at a few possible revisions. CSDA offers to the poor an organizational framework for community action together with borrowing power so that the poor can buy businesses and the know-how to run them. The Act is designed to enable the poor, if they want to, to become productive workers and more im- portant partners and owners of businesses. 141 Shifts in the Regional and Industrial Impact of Federal Government Spending Karen R. Polenske Harvard University 1969 38 pp COM-74-10665 This paper reviews a few selected problem areas which may arise in a rural community during and following in- dustrialization. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the construction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois is employed. Included in the dis- cussion are such factors as the social and economic effects upon the community of the labor force employed by the industry, changes in the use of land and local facilities, and potential increases in the cost of living. 144 Taxes, Subsidies and Locational Choice William J. Stober University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 36 October 1970 51 pp COM-74-10686 This study examines on a detailed regional and indus- trial level the direct and indirect effects of total Federal The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for evaluating the impact, or potential impact, of taxes and 30 financial incentives on the choice of location. The ques- tion of locational choice is first examined in the absence of taxes. The model is broadened to include the effects of the Federal income tax and then State and local tax differentials are introduced.- Finally, several different types of financial incentives are incorporated. Difficult problems posed by uncertainty largely are ignored and the location decision is examined in a risk-free setting. 145 Minimum Wages and Non-Metropolitan Employment T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 68 December 1971 17 PP COM-74-10653 This paper reports the results of a statistical inquiry into the employment effects of the minimum wage in a non- metropolitan area. Employment data for New Jersey and Pennsylvania, 1963-1969, are examined by multiple regres- sion analysis. The findings are then compared with those of other investigators. Possible public policy alternatives, such as linking the minimum wage to the average wage in an area, are given. 146 The National Accelerator Laboratory: A Study of the Social Impacts of Technology George S. Tolley, John L. Gardner, E. Olson, Frank Dahlkemper, Terry N. Clark, C. K. Aldrich, and Roderick Brumbaugh University of Chicago October 1969 92 pp Papers listed under individual authors COM-74-10649 level or composition of expenditures of the Federal government. The principal hypothesis is that Federal pur- chases of goods and services have a regressive impact on personal income distribution, primarily because of the differential impact on factor earnings. (Income is defined as the total payment received for the use of an individ- ual's resources in the production process.) An empirical model is constructed, and data for the year 1960 analyzed. The author concludes that, because of the highly interdependent nature of the United States economy, changes in the composition or level of final demand have an essentially neutral impact on the distri- bution of personal income. 148 The U.S.-Canadian Automobile Agreement of 1965: The Early Effects Paul Wonnacott University of Maryland August 1968 115 pp COM-74-10771 This paper discusses some of the early effects of the 1965 modified free trade automobile agreement between Canada and the United States. The study is divided into three parts. Part one examines the effects of the agree- ment on the distribution of automobile production and the balance of payments between both countries. The second part studies the impact on efficiency as reflected in the effects of the agreement on different economic sectors. Emphasis is placed on the position of the Cana- dian consumer-taxpayer and on the returns to Canadian labor. Part III discusses possible modifications in the agreement, including adjustment assistance, the floors on Canadian automobile production and value added, ex- ceptions to the agreement such as tires and replacement parts, and various technical and administrative problems. This study provides the framework and major findings of a one-year study of issues raised by the construction of the National Accelerator Laboratory near Chicago. A series of interrelated case studies undertaken are sum- marized, emphasizing four broad issues: (1) the effect of the accelerator location on the geographic distribution of the research and development industry; (2) the influence of the accelerator in shaping metropolitan development; (3) the changes in local political life due to the influx of accelerator personnel; and (4) the choice of the accelerator location. Guidelines for additional study of the issues as an experiment in developing an inter-disciplinary ap- proach to the examination of issues in metropolitan growth and development are provided. 147 Impact of Federal Procurement on Personal Income Distribution Gerald W. Williams Washington University, St. Louis July 1968 HI PP COM-74-10647 The purpose of the paper is to measure the personal income redistribution that occurs given a change in the INCOME DISTRIBUTION 149 Alternative Measures of Fiscal Redistribution: Gross vs Net Aid David Barkin and John Legler Washington University, St. Louis Working Paper EDA 9 April 1968 14 pp COM-74-10629 This report examines the problem of designing an inter- governmental grant-in-aid scheme which compensates for the differences in the ability of the subordinate govern- mental units to finance desirable service levels (equaliza- tion of fiscal capacity). A comparison is made of the existing system of State aid to education in Missouri, both before and after tax payments to the State are subtracted from the aid alloca- tions (gross and net aid patterns), with the pattern of aid that results from the application of an equalizing formula. The data reveal that a change from the present flat grant program to one incorporating both the school district needs and its tax effort and fiscal capacity would increase the redistributive impact of the program. 31 150 An Empirical Analysis of State Differences in the Distribution of Income and Earnings B. R. Chiswick National Bureau of Economic Research October 1971 100 pp Studies in the patterns of variation in the average level and inequality of the personal income of males throughout the United States have usually relied on ad hoc arguments for the selection and manner of entering explanatory variables. For his research, the author used an investment in schooling model to generate testable relations between the relative inequality and skewness of income and schooling parameters. The structure suggested by the model was then employed to explain inter-state differences in the income distribution. The schooling-income model is expanded in this essay to include the effects of labor market experience, employ- ment (weeks worked) and racial differences. The expanded earnings function is used to generate the relations be- tween the level and dispersion of income and the explana- tory variables. These expanded functions are then used to interpret inter-state differences in the level and in quality of income and earnings of adult males. 151 The Economic Status of the Aged: Re-Evaluation and Comments Frank Clemente and Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin 1973 6 pp COM-74-10569 The use of per capita income as the primary indicator of the relative economic status of the aged is examined. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the indus- trialization of a rural community in North Central Illinois is employed. The results show that a large and steadily widening gap between the aged and nonaged is found when gross income is used. However, when per depend- ent income is used as the operational indicator of eco- nomic status, the gap is not nearly as great. The implica- tion is that conclusions regarding the relative economic status of the aged should be based on analyses which standardize income by size of household. in rural Illinois are compared to parallel data from a control region across the State. The findings suggest that industrial development of small towns is associated with a decline in the relative economic status of female household heads in the area. Given the increasing tend- ency for large industries to locate in non-metropolitan areas, the results augur ill for female heads of house- holds in these regions. 153 Regional Differences in the Structure of Earnings Eric A. Hanushek Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 66 October 1971 59 pp COM-74-10763 This paper inquires into the assumption that relation- ships between earnings and schooling are the same across the nation or, at least, across very sizable aggregations of states. The object of the study was to produce esti- mates of "national" returns to schooling and a description of an economic potential surface for different geographic- al regions. The data employed were provided by a survey of all enlisted men leaving the military during Fiscal Year 1969, conducted ten months after mustering out to eliminate contamination of data from part-time employees waiting to enter full-time school. Information provided included training, employment, occupation and wages, if working, and marital status, all of which was merged with service information about educational background, Armed Forces Qualification Test score, age, race, military occupation, and home of record of the individual. A sample was chosen of slightly over 180,00 individuals who had, among other attributes, a background of full employment. In no case do input differences account for more than 6 percent of the total variance in mean earning. However, structural differences in earning relationships among regions account for over 80 percent of the variance in mean earnings. As the choice of regions is often equivalent to the marginal earnings of several years of schooling, the author suggests closer attention to the structure of labor markets than to the distribution of individuals and their character- istics in analyzing regional income patterns. 152 Rapid Industrial Development and the Relative Economic Status of the Sexes Frank Clemente and Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin 1973 15 pp COM-74-10515 One of a series of papers related to the "Hennepin Study", University of Wisconsin. The impact of rapid industrial development of small communities upon the economic status of the sexes is analyzed via a natural field experiment with a "two-group, before and after" design. Data from a five year study (1966- 1971) of the construction of a large manufacturing facility 154 Differences in Nominal Income and Prices Between Cities Oded Izraeli University of Chicago June 1972 43 pp COM-73-11988/5 The purposes of this study are to shed light on why variations in money income and prices of goods occur and to measure the effects of variables explaining the variation. In order to explain variations in money income and prices, attention is given to a vector of public goods whose supply varies by location. In Part II a formal model is developed. Part III dis- cusses the statistical method and illustrates empirical 32 hypotheses growing out of the model and presents some preliminary statistical results. 155 Geographical Differences in Wages and Prices: Empirical Results Oded Izraeli University of Chicago February 1973 37 pp This paper starts with a discussion of the rationale for espousing an anti-poverty goal, and the process in which poverty might be reduced. The social and economic characteristics and the distribution of the poor are ex- amined. The historical record of poverty reduction in the mid-sixties through reliance upon improved labor production is analyzed and limits of further gains are noted. The author outlines his recommendations for the kinds of assistance needed to reduce the poverty com- ponent to minimum levels and concludes that these levels are attainable only if the economy be managed in such a fashion as to keep unemployment at or below four percent. This paper is a detailed analysis regarding the effect of city size, air pollution, crime, fire, accident hazards, edu- cation, miscellaneous public services, local taxes, climate, median age and labor market disequilibrium upon wages and prices. The author tries to show through formulas how each geographical area of different city size, climate, education etc., effect the market prices and wages of the residents of the area. The results of this paper show that the main need in the wage variable is for a measure of earnings influ- enced as little as possible by wage differences due to factors such as human capital, sex, and other reasons for differences in skill level. The regression result of seven other wages measures includes the average wage rate of males in some occupations and median yearly earnings of females and males for some occupations. 156 A Rationale for Persistent Low Incomes in Small Urban Centers Donald W. Jones University of Chicago September 1972 82 pp COM-74-10009 This study addresses itself to the continuing economic reasons for persistent low income levels, real as well as monetary, in non-metropolitan areas relative to the metro- politan cores to which they are related. It examines the extent to which the distance-transport cost argument ex- plains why incomes at the periphery of a metropolitan region are systematically lower than at the core. Theory of production and distribution is examined with special emphasis on labor as a factor of production. The effects of industrial structure and imperfect factor market opera- tions are considered. The extent to which improvement in transportation facilities will decrease or increase metro- non-metro income differentials is discussed. Finally, pub- lic policy with respect to regional development in Appa- lachia is examined in light of findings in earlier sections of the paper. 158 Regional Incomes in the United States— 1929-1967 Philip M. Lankford University of Chicago 1972 137 pp COM-74-11308 The objective of the study is to review briefly key modern contributions to the theory of regional growth and development, to glean testable hypotheses relevant to regional welfare, and to test the hypotheses with existing data. Monetary rather than real income is studied because cost of living data do not exist for the entire nation in the type and detail required. Principal Findings: 1) Accessibility to the national mar- ket as it controls the changing location of firms and their profits remains an important long range factor in deter- mining regional welfare levels. 2) Although highly inter- correlated with population potential, at the Daily Urban System scale of analysis population size is of little im- portance in detemining welfare levels. 3) From 1930 to 1960 there is a dramatic shift away from accessibility to the national market and population size as the key ele- ment in regional development. Skills of the labor force become increasingly important. 4) Migration as it read- justs labor supply growth and skills remains an important process of change. 5) The growth and development of the Daily Urban System is not related to its export base. 6) A more equitable income distribution is associated with the stable growth and higher per capita income levels of the larger Daily Urban Systems. The rapid growth of middle range cities is accompanied by a more inequitable distribution. 159 Income Distribution in Benefit-Cost Analysis Koichi Mera Harvard University May 1968 26 pp 157 Steps to Remove Poverty from America Robert J. Lampman University of Washington Reprint No. 15 1969 22 pp In this paper, which is a preliminary treatment of the author's later article "Efficiency in Government Invest- ment", attention is confined to the income-distributional aspect of benefit-cost analysis. If the social value of the government expenditure is considered as the numeraire, the marginal utilities of different income classes should be altered accordingly. This conversion was done for 1965 for single persons and for married couples without and with dependents. Revised 33 marginal utilities for different income classes and family sizes are shown. 160 Regional Production Functions and Redistribution Policies: The Case of Japan Koichi Mera Harvard University April 7, 1969 123 pp COM-74-10383 This study examines the feasibility of achieving a more equitable distribution of income among regions by a re- distribution of social capital. It is an empirical study based on Japanese regional data concerning three sectors and nine regions. Logarithmically linear, constant returns to scale production functions are empirically estimated which specify varying environmental factors and govern- ment investments. Difference in regional technologies are also investigated. Redistribution of income is assessed by examining the impact of social capital distribution upon average labor productivity as derived from the esti- mated production functions. 161 A Spatial Analysis of the County Per Capita Income Distribution in the North Carolina Coastal Plain, 1940-1950: The Trend Toward Equality University of North Carolina 1973 13 pp COM-74-10857 This paper examines the spatial distribution of county per capita incomes in the North Carolina Coastal Plain from 1940-1950. It attempts to determine the importance of several factors, such as the percentage employed in manufacturing and public administration, the median education, and the economic population potential in 1940, which promoted intercounty per capita income conver- gence during the period studied. Because it proved impossible to explain the income convergence for the entire Coastal Plain, the region was subdivided into those counties with relative incomes above the regional mean and those below it. Multiple re- gression models were constructed for both groups of counties. The results of the analysis showed that while the incomes in the upper group converged between 1940- 1950, those of the lower group diverged, the outcome of changes among mobility, affluency, and employment factors. 162 An Analysis of the Non-white Income Ratio David W. Rasmussen E. D. A. Research Conference February 14, 1968 10 pp COM-74-10636 This research aims to find the determinants of the non-white/white income differential via multiple regres- sion analysis and to analyze the policies suggested by the statistical investigations. The model used to organize the inquiry is described, and the variables considered as determinants of the non-white/white income are differenti- ated. It is tentatively concluded that a tight labor market policy is a questionable mechanism for improving the incomes of non-whites with respect to whites and that government labor demands tend to be highly human capital intensive, and accordingly benefit whites more than non-whites. 163 The Effect of Regional and Occupational Mobility on Non-White Income Changes, 1950 to 1960 David Rasmussen Washington University, St. Louis Working Paper EDA 6 January 1968 14 pp COM-73-12008 This paper discusses the effect of occupational and geographic mobility on the economic welfare of non- whites. The author uses a "shiftshare" accounting tech- nique to appraise the changes in the median income of non-whites in the period 1950-1960. He finds that this measure rose substantially during the decade period, but the non-white median income relative to white was very modest. 164 Rapid Industrial Development, Competition, and Relative Economic Status: A Study in Human Ecology Gene F. Summers and Frank Clemente University of Wisconsin 1973 34 pp COM-74-10856 This paper examines the distribution of income between strong and weak economic competitors over time, and whether any inequality is accentuated under conditions of industrial development. Data from a longitudinal (1966- 1971) study of the construction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois are compared to parallel data from a control region across the State. Multiple classification analysis is employed to estimate and com- pare the effects of competitive capacity upon economic status. The findings suggest that income differences be- tween strong and weak competitors tend to increase over time. That industrial development constitutes a signi- ficant stimulus to the competitiveness within the system and results in an accentuation of the differences is not supported. Public policy implications for rural industriali- zation and development are provided. 165 Economic Growth and the Distribution of Labor Income Michael Tannen National Bureau of Economic Research Winter 1971 31 pp COM-74-11219 34 This study applies insights obtained from modern growth theory to the human capital approach to the dis- tribution of labor income The objective is to explain secular changes in income inequality and skewness. The basic equation for income inequality, using human capital concepts, is.- Var (LnY = H Var (rij) + r Var (Hij) + Var (hij) Var (rij), where Y is labor income, rij is the rate of return to the i ,h individual on the j ,h investment in human capital, Hij is the size of the j th investment in human capital undertaken by the i ,h individual measured in units of cost, and r and H refer to the respective averages. Skewness (concentration) can be shown to vary in the same direction as inequality. A theoretical model that formalizes the effects of the growth process on the distribution of labor income has been completed, though not all the implications of the model have as yet been tested. It is tentatively concluded that while labor income may well be the single most important component of the personal income distribution, the reduction in its disper- sion has not, at least from 1950-60, been sufficient to off- set the increasing dispersion of other components of the distribution. 166 Guerilla War on Poverty Rhea Wilson Massachusetts Institute of Technology Laboratory for Environmental Studies Urban Ghetto Study Program April 1969 68 pp COM-74-10581 A comparative survey of the operational histories of the grass-roots anti-poverty action programs that have been developed in recent years to assist minority-low income groups. The study is organized in four sections: (1) black capitalist projects and employment-generating projects designed to promote individual advancement; (2) programs concerned primarily with providing commun- ity services; (3) political organizing projects of the sort pioneered by Saul Alinsky to give minorities greater leverage in the political field; and finally, (4) the coopera- tives for production and marketing that have been organ- ized especially in the South. INPUT/OUTPUT 167 State Estimates of Gross Private Domestic Investment 1947, 1958, 1963 Carolyn W. Anderson and Douglas W. McMillan Harvard University Report Number 11 August 1968 31 pp COM-74-10303 This report is divided into two parts corresponding to the componets of (1) gross private domestic investment, gross private capital formation and (2) net change in inventories, respectively. Each of these sections can be read as a seperate entity. This paper is one of a series of reports on the pro- cedures used to determine state final demands by input- output industrial category. 168 State Estimates of Net Purchases of Goods and Services By State and Local Governments 1947, 1958, 1963 Richard B. Bemer Harvard University August 1968 Report No. 12 45 pp COM-74-10230 This report describes the methodology for assembling estimates of state and local government net purchases of goods and services for each State. These purchases are accounted to a given State regardless of the place where the goods and services were produced. These final demand estimates are defined as purchases on current and capital account by general government plus purchases on capital account of State and local government enterprises. These estimates were made prior to the availability of the detailed data for State and local government purchases by function from the 1963 national input-output table so adjustments were made at a later date. The appendix contains percentage distributions among 6 functional catgories of State and local purchases (Educational, Public Health & Welfare, Civilian Safety, General Govern- ment, Transport, and other) for each State for 1947, 1968 and 1963. 169 Technique for Area Planning (Report) Technique for Area Planning (Manual) Ernest R. Bonner and Vernon L. Fahle Regional Economic Development Institute December 1967 49 pp PB-178057 PB-178058 The principal objectives of this projects are threefold: 1. Develop and evaluate a proposed interindustry impact analysis technique for use in urban areas. 2. Produce a manual acquainting local planning groups with the development and use of the proposed technique. 3. Conduct a sensitivity analysis designed to increase understanding of the effects of coefficient error in the input/output matrix upon impact estimates and output projections. 170 The Implications of Vietnam De-escalation for The Commonwealth of Massachusetts Donald R. Boulanger Harvard University Report No. 15 August 1969 77 pp COM-73-10212 The objective of the study is to present an analysis of the expected effects of a spending cutback associated with Vietnam de-escalation on the economy of Massa- chusetts. This report compares the effects of three alter- native Federal policies on Massachusetts: I, The actual 1967 gross output by industry, II, a $19 billion cut in Vietnam spending with a uniform 3.4% increase in private 35 sector expenditures, and III, the $19 billion cut with a $11.5 billion increase in "Great Society" programs and a uniform 1.3% increase in private sector expenditures. Both II and III leave national wages and salaries un- changed, but from State to State and sector to sector drastic changes would take place. For the year 1967 the loss of labor earning in Massachusetts due to the $19 billion reduction in Vietnam expenditures would have exceeded the gains from the offsetting programs of alter- native II or III by about 1.5% or $150 million. This net decline is one of the largest for any State in the country indicating the relative sensitivity of Massachusetts to Vietnam production. Appendices contain the mathematical derivation of the model used and detailed tables on changes in labor earnings. 171 Detailed Input-Output Tables of Washington State, 1963 Philip J. Bourque and Eldon E. Weeks Washington State University September 1969 22 pp COM-73-11999 This report is intended to expand the detail of topics in the "Washington Economy: An Input-output Study" and to introduce additional topics. It is the first State study to have finely disaggregated import and export matrices to accompany the industry intra-regional flows matrix. The development of the export matrix represents an important step toward integrating national and regional input-output tables, thus facilitating a systematic linkage of regional and national forecasts. 172 Estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures in the State of Washington, 1954-1967 Philip J. Bourque University of Washington October 1969 28 pp COM-74-10627 For purposes of implementing an econometric model in a State expenditure framework, estimates of personal consumption expenditures for the State of Washington have been prepared for the period 1954-1967. Measures were sought which would compare closely in concept with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) of the national income and product accounts. This paper contains a review of available consumer spending data, an explanation of the methodology developed for the Washington estimates and a comparison of results ob- tained by different procedures. 173 Income Multipliers for the Washington Economy Philip J. Bourque University of Washington Reprint No. 14 1969 15 pp COM-74-10031 This article is a segment of the final report entitled "Input-Output Tables for the Washington Economy, 1967." Estimates are made of the magnitudes of the income- generating impact of exports by Washington State indus- tries, Exports in this context refer to sales outside Washington State, including sales to users in other States (interstate exports) and sales abroad (foreign exports). 174 An Input-Output Analysis of Economic Change in Washington State Philip J. Bourque University of Washington Summer 1971 17 pp COM-74-10628 This paper attempts to show the value of the input- output studies' of Washington for 1963 and 1967 which provide a cross-sectional picture of the economy in two important periods of its growth. It traces the changes in the level and composition of the regional economy over time and the use of the multipliers derived from the studies in economic impact analysis. The input-output model provides a foundation for preparing future eco- nomic projections. Methodologically, the forecast of local markets is developed through linking the future exports of Washington industries to the projected growth of na- tional and foreign markets. Since it captures the linkages among production, income, consumption, imports, exports, and employment by industry, the analytical work brings consistency between the assumptions adopted and the flows among each of the elements of the system. The author concludes that under a disaggregated system, it is desirable to build a regional projection model in which modifications of the data can be introduced as new in- formation prevails and it is useful for regional goal planning. 175 Input-Output Tables for the Washington Economy 1967 W. B. Beyers, P. J. Bourque, W. R. Syefried, E. E. Weeks University of Washington December 1970 71 pp COM-73-11983 This paper covers the second input-output model for the State of Washington (first, 1963). It contains a brief description of the study design including the model struc- ture, the industrial classification system used, the pro- cedures used in obtaining statistics, and data reconcilia- tion methods. The bulk of the publication consists of seven types of input-output tables for the State for 1967 as follows: (1) interindustry flows, (2) direct regional pur- chases per dollar of gross outlay, (3) direct sales per dollar of gross output, (4) interindustry production re- quirements (direct and indirect) per $100 thousand of delivery to final demand, (5) interindustry production re- quirements (direct, indirect, and household supporting) per $100 thousand of delivery to final demand, (6) Wash- ington imports from industries in the rest of the United States, and (7) total purchases matrix. 176 An Inventory of Regional Input-Output Studies in the United States Philip J. Bourque and Millicent Cox University of Washington 1970 21 PP COM-74-10626 36 This paper provides a bibliography of input-output studies which develop interindustry matrices for various areas in the United States. Some discussion of methodo- logical problems have been included. 177 Implementation and Evaluation of MRIO Model Interindustry Economics Division Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of Commerce August 1972 191 pp COM-74-10611 An evaluation is presented of the multiregional input/ output study conducted by the Harvard Economic Re- search Program as to its economic rationale, mathematical formulation, and data base particularly as these are re- flected in the study's results for forty-four regions in the years 1963, 1970, and 1980. 178 Development of Input-Output Measures By State 1947, 1958, and 1963 Jack Faucett Associates Incorporated July 1969 (Harvard Economic Research Project) 174 pp plus appendix COM-73-11996 This is a two-volume report. Volume I presents a general description of the technique used to construct measures of State output for the non-manufacturing sectors and in- cludes Appendix A: Input-Output Sector Numbers, Titles, and Related Codes. Volume II, Appendix B: Detailed Notes on the Con- struction of Output Measures for Non-Manufacturing Sec- tors expands the description of methods used to provide detail for each sector consisting of separate sets of notes for each of 29 non-manufacturing sectors. 179 Projections of Final Demand By State for 1970 and 1980 Jack Faucett Associates Incorporated October 1970 203 pp (Harvard Economic Research Project) COM-74-10786 This paper describes projections of final demand by State to 1970 and 1980 to be used as input to the multire- gional input-output model completed by Harvard Univer- sity. This model provides a framework for systematic analysis of the economic interdependence among indus- tries and regions of the United States. Included is a two- part appendix and selected bibliography. 180 State Estimates of Exports from The U.S. 1947, 1958, 1963 William R. Buechner Harvard University Report No. 9 August 1968 57 pp The report presents the method by which estimates are made of the State-by-State location of production of goods and services exported from the United States. Goods and services exported are grouped according to the 80-order 1958 input-output industrial classification used by the Office of Business Economics (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis). The body of the report describes in detail the many assumptions made and mechanical calcu- lations employed in arriving at the final figures. To ex- pedite the description of derivations of the figures, the 80-order industries are grouped into four major sectors: agriculture, mineral industries and construction, manu- facturing, and services. Because of vast differences in scope and coverage of source material, both among in- dustries and over time, the derived figures differ in quality. Generally the 1958 and 1963 figures are more reliable than those for 1947 and manufacturing figures are better than those for the three other major groups. For the most part data sources utilized could be used to develop export data for sub-state regions. 181 State Estimates of Federal Government Purchases 1947, 1958, 1963 Bo Carlsson and Norton Grubb Harvard University Report No. 13 August 1968 95 pp COM-74-11226 This report explains the methodology of allocating Fed- eral government purchases to the States. The first section discusses very generally the estimation procedures and the nature of the data used. For most of the manufac- turing industries and some non-manufacturing industries exact State figures on government purchases are available. However, for the remainder of the industries indirect al- locations are necessary. The reliability of these alloca- tions varies from case to case. The second section treats the general methodology and data sources and gives an extensive explanation of military data. The third section containing the bulk of the study specifies the particular sources and methods used for allocation of Federal pur- chases from each 80-order industry. 182 Iterative and Inversion Technique for Solving Large- Scale Multiregional Input-Output Models Charles P. Cohen, Peter W. Solenberger, and Gordon Tucker Harvard University Report No. 17 June 1970 39 pp COM-71-01145 This paper compares three methods of solving the large-scale MRIO matrix system. It gives a mathematical treatment of these methods and the computer time re- quirements of each. It is found that Luffs bordering technique (Report No. 16) for inversion takes only slightly longer than solution by LU-decomposition and gives, in addition, the inverse coefficients. Although iterative solu- tion techniques produce no inverse, they are very fast so that in the time required for inversion by one of the above methods a great many particular solutions are possible. 37 183 Alignment and Splits of the 1947 Census of Manufactures Industry Codes to a 57-Order 1958 Input-Output Industrial Classification Scheme Charles Conrod Harvard University Report No. 4 August 1967 29 pp COM-74-10015 This report explains the alignment between the 1947 codes and the 1958 codes so that each of the former can be assigned to one or more of the latter. In many cases 1947— definition industries had to be split (divided) among two or more 1958— definition industries. The comparability gained by this effort allowed the analysis done in Report No. 2. The alignment is derived from value of shipments data and can be used with any of the census data: em- ployment value-added, payrolls, or value of shipments. An appendix contains a complete listing of the codes for 1947 and 1958, the splits, and the corresponding sector descriptions. State New Construction Technologies, 1963 Orani Dixon and John V. Wells Harvard University Report No. 20 September 1970 37 pp COM-71-01146 This report represents a considerable extension of Report No. 10, and improves on those results in two ways. First, both interregional technological variations and in- terregional product mix variations are considered. Second, mix variations are estimated more accurately by using more disaggregated construction subindustries and by improving the accuracy of the State output totals used as weights in estimating product mix variations. These im- provements were considered necessary because new con- struction ranks fourth among the 86 industries in the 1963 input-output table with over 11 per cent of total final demand. The fact that construction technologies are geared to satisfy local needs and to use locally available materials results in a high degree of localization of these technologies. Also the kinds of structures built in differ- ent States result in large interregional product mix varia- tions. 185 Methodology of Regional and Subregional Input-Output Studies Robert H. Edelstein Harvard University Report No. 8 June 1968 51 pp COM-74-11227 This report is a critical examination of the methods used in regional economic studies. The first section delineates the four most widely used methods: pure location analy- sis, impact analysis, input-output analysis, and mathe- matical optimization. The second section outlines the difficulties and problems encountered by small-area studies and identifies two principal categories: those associated (1) with theoretical construction of models and (2) with practical implementation of models. The third section deals with specific models explaining the advantages and disadvantages of each. On the basis that the best approach is one Which uses systematic frame- work, a model, which abstracts important features to be analyzed without destroying the reality of the analysis, the author concludes that input-output activity analysis is the best method. Among the various types of input- output analysis, the intranational model seems most desirable at the date of this paper due to its being less demanding of data. 186 Procedures for Estimating County— Employment- Unemployment— Payrolls — Output by Input-Output Industry Sector Curtis C. Harris Jr. University of Maryland July 1970 29 pp COM-74-10021 This paper provides the methodology used to estimate county employment, unemployment, payroll, and output for 1965 and 1966, and their conversion to input-output sectors. It explains in detail the procedures used to over- come the different problems encountered in estimating and converting the data. The Input-Output Table utilized consists of 99 industry sectors and 4 extra employment sectors. The basic data was obtained from the County Business Patterns. 187 Procedures for Estimating County Consumer Expenditures by Input-Output Sector Curtis C. Harris Jr. and Frank E. Hopkins University of Maryland August 1969 13 pp This paper describes the procedures used to estimate consumer expenditures by input-output sectors for 1963, which in turn are updated for 1964, 1965, and 1966. The paper is divided into three sections. Part One describes how total 1963 county sales for 11 major types of retail outlets are estimated. Part Two provides the methodo- logy used to obtain 1963 sales by Merchandise Line Code, a classification of sales by types of goods sold, and their conversion to input-output sectors. And Part Three describes the method applied in updating the data. The primary source of data used was the 1963 Census of Business. 188 Procedures for Estimating County Investment Expenditures by Input-Output Sector Curtis C. Harris Jr. and Frank E. Hopkins University of Maryland August 1969 13 pp 38 This paper describes the methodology used to estimate county construction and equipment investment expendi- tures by input-output sectors for 1964, 1965 and 1966. Investment by input-output purchasing sectors is esti- mated, and in turn is converted into investment by input- output producing sector through the application of capital coefficient matrices. The basic data utilized was taken primarily from the F. W. Dodge Corporation, County Busi- ness Patterns, the Annual Survey of Manufactures, and the 1963 Census of Business. 189 Variation of Input-Output Coefficients for Different Levels of Aggregation Gerald J. Karaska Regional Science Research Institute Printed in Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 8 No. 2 1968 215-227 pp COM-74-10682 Input requirements per dollar of output have been de- rived for the mineral extraction industries for the U.S. as a whole. The aim of this paper was to develop a unique set of input coefficients for each State. Six input-output indus- tries are included in the mining sector: 10-5, Iron & fer- roalloy ores mining; 10-6, Nonferrous metal ores mining; 10-7, Coal mining; 10-8, Crude petroleum & natural gas; 10-9, Stone & clay mining & quarrying; and 10-10, Chemical & fertilizer mineral mining. The procedures developed for estimating State-by-State input require- ments for these industries varied somewhat from one industry to another depending on the structure of the particular industry, the amount and quality of technical data available, and the extent of aggregation in existing cost detail. A number of techniques had to be used in apportioning aggregate cost figures to serve as estimates of the purchases of various inputs and in dividing re- gional aggregate totals among the various States within their particular region. A brief discussion of the use of coefficients in the input-output model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan area (1960) is covered in this article. The paper cites several applications of coefficients— technological, local and im- port—to the model. It contains a review of the Philadel- phia study design, industrial classification and the pro- cedures used in obtaining data. A brief explanation of the mathematical structure of the coefficients is presented. 190 State Estimates of Purchases by the New Construction Industry 1947, 1958, 1963 Pamela M. King Harvard University Report No. 10 August 1968 20 pp COM-74-10233 This report explains the methods and problems of esti- mating purchases within each State by the new construc- tion industry. New construction is defined to include both public and private construction expenditures. A major drawback to these estimates is the use of a uniform national input structure for all States which implies that construction materials are used in the same proportion in every State. (See Report No. 20 "State News Construc- tion Technologies 1963," by Orin Dixon and John V. Wells, for further research which removes this drawback to some extent.) The procedures used to estimate purchases by the construction industry require that State outputs be estimated and used in concert with national input coefficients, thus the purchase estimates reflect only variations in output rather than in purchases from pro- ducing sectors. Since national direct input coefficients are used the major problems encountered are in the allocation to States of total new construction value. 191 Estimation of 1963 Input Requirements For the Mining Industries Roger Kubarych Harvard University Report No. 19 September 1970 32 pp COM-71-01147 192 Computational Procedure for the Multiregional Model Harold S. Luft Harvard University Report No. 16 September 1969 41 pp COM-71-01148 The heart of the multiregional input-output model is the solution of a large set of simultaneous equations. Data for the model cover 79 industries and 744 regions. Thus an inversion involves a 3500-order matrix involving over 12 million numbers, an ambitious undertaking. How- ever, the special nature of the form of the matrix makes the problem manageable. Three basic questions about the matrix inversion are treated: 1) is it possible to per- form the necessary steps, or do problems of logistics and testing new programs make the task infeasible, 2) if the job can be done, will the cost be so great that it must be severely curtailed, and 3) if it can be done at reasonable cost will the errors be so great as to make the results worthless? Three solution techniques are investigated in detail: 1) solution of the equations with- out inversion by the Gauss-Seidel iterative technique, 2) standard inversion by Gauss or Gauss-Jordon elimination, and 3) various levels of partitioning combined with Gauss- Jordan elimination. 193 Regional and Interregional Input-Output Models: A Reappraisal William H. Miernyk West Virginia University Reprint Series III, No. 10. Reprinted from Spatial, Region- al and Population Economics, Perlman, Leven, and Chinitz (eds.), Gordon and Breach, Science Publishers, Ltd. (1973) pp 263-292 COM-74-11318 This essay is not written to challenge Charles M. Tie- bout's criticism of empirical input-output studies (1957) but to examine more recent contributions to regional and interregional input-output analysis, especially those made since 1960, and to evaluate the efforts that have been made to deal with the problems he correctly identified. 39 Issues discussed: National Versus Regional Coefficients, Fixed Versus Changing Coefficients, The Use of Regional Input-Output Models, Interregional Models, Dynamic Mod- els and Regional Development, and the Data Problem. Important advances have been made since Tiebout's 1957 article and with a growing interest in regional and interregional models, both in this country and abroad, further major advances in methods, data and applications are expected. 194 Sampling Techniques in Making Regional Industry Forecasts William H. Miernyk University of West Virginia January 1968 16 pp COM-74-10225 This abstract describes a technique for projecting regional input coefficients used to make a ten-year con- sistent forecast of the West Virginia economy. The ration- ale of regional input-output analysis is discussed briefly, and the sampling procedures followed in obtaining flow data for the basic regional table are described. Regional input coefficients are projected by computing a new table of direct input requirements from a sub-sample of "best practice" establishments in each sector. The preliminary forecast assumes that the region's industries will maintain a constant share of national markets during the projection period. A second forecast will attempt to take into ac- count long-term shifts in the regional distribution of national sales. 195 Simulating Regional Economic Development with an Input-Output Model William H. Miernyk and Kenneth L. Shellhammer West Virginia University July 1968 131 pp COM-74-10216 This is an interim report on a study which has used an input-output model to simulate certain aspects of the regional economic development of West Virginia, primarily: (1) direct investment in private establishments (favorable loans to private firms); (2) investment in social overhead capital (highways, sewer and water systems): and (3) in- vestment in human resources (hospitals, educational fa- cilities and training). The model used in this study is the conventional open regional model which is a small- scale version of the national input-output systems. 19* Simulating Regional Economic Development: An Interindustry Analysis of the West Virginia Economy William H. Miernyk, Kenneth L. Shellhammer, Douglas M. Brown, Ronald L Coccari, Charles J. Gallagher and Wesley H. Wineman West Virgina University June 1969 173 pp COM-74-10311 This is the final report of a four-year study of the West Virginia economy using a regional input-output model to stimulate economic development. It demon- strates the versatility) and flexibility of the model as a tool and provides the framework for the analysis of a wide variety of alternative investment opportunities. The application of these techniques to other regions could be accomplished in a much shorter time and at much less expense without repeating the trial and error experiences of this study. 197 The West Virginia Dynamic Model and its Implications William H. Miernyk West Virginia University April 1970 pp 27-32 COM-74-11214 This paper contains a brief explanation of the logical and mathematical structure of this input-output model and a tabular presentation of output and capital pro- jections for 1975. The unique feature of this model is its capital stock coefficient matrix which allow ascer- taining capital stock requirements of alternative eco- nomic development plans in West Virginia. The paper cites applications of the model, such as adding a matrix of labor coefficients to project labor requirements, pro- jecting change in residential activity, and estimating effects on each business sector of changes in the State's tax structure. 198 Alignment of 1960 BLS Consumer Expenditure Categories With The 80— Order OBE Input-Output Industrial Classification Karen R. Polenske and James F. Smith Harvard University Report No. 5 February 1968 44 pp COM-74-10017 The report contains a description of the process by which the alignment was determined and references to various source materials used to develop the alignment of classifications used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Office of Business Economics (OBE). The report is mainly composed of tables showing the complete final alignment between the 379 consumer expenditure cate- gories and the input-output sectors and extensive com- ments on the rationale behind particular decisions. The alignment was developed for use in making state esti- mates of personal consumption expenditures (see Report No. 7) that are consistent with national input-output figures. 199 *The Economic Impact of Federal Government Expenditures on Industries -and Regions of the United States, 1947, 1958, 1962 Karen Polenske Harvard University Report No. 2 August 1967 67 pp COM-74-11440 *See annotation for revised version entitled "Shifts in the Regional and Industrial Impact of Federal Government Spending", March 1969. 40 200 Empirical Implementation of a Multiregional Input-Output Gravity Trade Model Karen R. Polenske Harvard University 1969 30 pp COM-74-10677 This paper describes the implementation of the Leon- tief-Strout gravity (LSG) model in a multiregional input- output model of the Japanese economy. Since the LSG trade' model combines the interindustry model and a gravity transportation model, regional outputs and in- terregional shipments of goods and services are deter- mined simultaneously. Although input-output tables for individual regions have been constructed for many areas, a consistent set of regional iriput-output tables with interregional flows specified has not been available; thus the actual implementation of the complete LSG model is accomplished here for the first time using the Japanese data. The mathematical structure of the model is explained and its application to Japanese data is ex- hibited along with some tabular results. 201 An Empirical Test of Interregional Input-Output Models: Estimation of 1963 Japanese Production Karen R. Polenske Harvard University December 1969 15 pp COM-73-12009 As part of the overall multi-regional input-output study conducted at Harvard University, this paper, based on available Japanese data, compares the gravity trade model with two other spatially differentiated, general equilibrium trade models: a fixed column coefficient model and a fixed row coefficient model. This report is a comprehensive summary and overview of the multiregional input-output model. It can be con- sidered a guide to the concepts and methodology em- ployed in the construction of the model as explained in full detail in the twenty previous reports. The theore- tical basis for the model, its mathematical structure, and computer manipulation are treated. The methodology em- ployed in deriving figures by State of final demands, in- put to manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and construc- tion, and interregional trade flows. Appendix tables con- tain the industrial definitions employed and the regionali- zation used. 204 Personal Consumption Expenditures, 1947, 1958, 1963, Scheme 1 Karen R. Polenske and Isabelle B. Whiston Harvard University Report No. 7 August 1968 52 pp COM-74-10884 Scheme I* can be used as a quick method of estimating personal consumption expenditures by State for each of the 80— Order 1958 input-output sectors. State consump- tion estimates sum to the national consumption figures which are consistent with the input-output personal con- sumption figures for 1947, 1958, and 1963. Each State vector is made to represent the total purchase of con- sumer goods and services in that State, regardless of the area of production. Detailed tables containing data sources and allocation ratios are included, however, the final demand estimates themselves are not. Reference is also made to a paper explaining the use of Scheme I in making consumer expenditure estimates for local areas, such as counties. (*See Report No. 14 of this series, "State Estimate of Personal Consumption Expenditures 1947, 1958, 1963", by the same authors, for Scheme II which is a more elaborate approach.) 202 The Implementation of a Multiregional Input-Output Model For the United States Karen R. Polenske Harvard University December 1970 35 pp COM-73-11982/8 This is a summary of the study of the economic inter- relationships of 44 regions exhaustive of the U.S. linking 78 industries in the other regions. Industrial purchases and sales are the data inputs that provide the linkages among industries. The industries in turn are also linked to final purchases such as those made by families, and the Federal, State and local governments. 203 A Multiregional Input-Output Model for the United States Karen R. Polenske Harvard University October 1970 Report No. 21 251 pp COM-71-00943 205 Shifts in the Regional and Industrial Impact of Federal Government Spending Karen R. Polenske Harvard University Report No. 2 revised March 1969 67 pp COM-74-10665 This report (a revision of an earlier version entitled "The Economic Impact of Federal Government Expendi- tures on Industries and Regions of the United States, 1947, 1958, 1962") examines the direct and indirect impact of changes in the level of government expenditures between 1947, 1958 and 1962 on each region and industry in an exhaustive 17-region, 57-industry system for the United States. The model used to estimate the impacts of Fed- eral and State and local government expenditures in the Leontief intranational input-output model. The analysis shows the labor earnings generated by Federal govern- ment expenditures are increasing in importance relative to other sectors of the economy and that this change is distributed unevenly among the different regions and industries. Besides the tables in the text the appendix 41 contains extensive tabulated data on impacts by region and industry. structure of Atlanta under conditions of maximum local trade. 206 State Estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures, 1947, 1958, 1963— Scheme II Karen R. Polenske and Isabelle B. Whiston Harvard University Report No. 14 August 1968 42 pp COM-74-10376 This report describes Scheme II for obtaining esti- mates, a more refined procedure than Scheme I given in Report No. 7 in this series. The major difference between Schemes I and II is that the latter uses greater com- modity detail from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. This additional detail brings out the regional variation in consumption expenditures. In estimating personal con- sumption expenditures by State, two major data problems had to be treated: 1) inconsistency in the definitions between income distribution groups classified by the Bureau of Census and those used by BLS, and 2) incom- parability in the coverage of the consumer expenditures survey and the input-output data. The estimates of ex- penditures for type of good or service represent the total purchases made in the given State, regardless of the area of production. The State estimates obtained can be used as control totals for local areas within a State. 207 An Input-Output Analysis of the South Carolina Ecomony Jeffrey H. Riddel University of North Carolina 1970 35 pp This paper analyzes the dynamic economic growth of South Carolina. With the use of an input-output table, wages, employment figures, knowledge of area's re- sources, etc. refinements of present policies are recom- mended to achieve full employment and higher per capita income. The analysis demonstrates the possibili- ties for growth open to the South Carolina economy which will enable decisions to be more rational and beneficial to its citizens. 208 Application of the Regional Input-Output Table Simulator: A Provisional Interindustry Model of Atlanta William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 6 June 1968 38 pp COM-74-11306 The Regional Input-Output Table (R-l-O-T) Simulator represents an attempt to develop a simple, inexpensive technique for approximating input-output tables for small areas. This paper describes the simulator at its first stage of use in constructing a balanced regional model of Atlan- ta, Georgia. This model has been examined in class and in discussions with local businessmen and development groups and appears to outline reasonably the interindustry 209 Estimating Regional Input-Output Coefficients William A. Schaffer Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper 16 March 1970 21 PP V Technical supplement by E. Malcolm Sutter, Jr. % /-:.u 55 pp 0i COM-74-10878 The purpose of this study is to answer questions posed by T. T. Su's regional input-output model based on national coefficients and a survey of import proportions. This model is posited as an alternative to the costly direct survey method. This paper consists of five sec- tions: (1) nonsurvey techniques, (2) some empirical tests, (3) semi-survey methods, (4) more tests, and (5) conclusions plus a supplement. It compares the technical advantages and shortcomings of the nonsurvey techniques with that of the semisurvey methods. In the comparison, some empirical tests are conducted with particular em- phasis on the alternative model involving national co- efficients and a survey of exports rather than imports. The authors conclude that results using data from the 1953 Washington study with semisurvey methods appear to be comparable to the nonsurvey results. The imports- only methods suffers from problems of industry technology and product mix but produces a matrix of input-output coefficients of about the same quality as the other meth- ods. The exports-only method yields a balanced regional table and appears to be superior to the other methods tested. Even though the authors acknowledged the superiority of survey-based procedures for constructing regional models, the various estimating techniques may permit the users to construct tables which are acceptable in terms of both cost and accuracy provided that a national table with added industry detail is available as a base for further projections. 210 A Regional Input-Output Table Simulator William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology March 1968 9 pp COM-74-10292 This paper is a supplement to the paper by the same authors on "Nonsurvey Techniques For Constructing Re- gional Interindustry Models." This technique requires an input-output table. To provide this table, a simulator in ALGOL must be filed on a Burroughs 5500. The regional interindustry model is based on assumptions inherent in its equation. These assumptions are essential due to the limitations imposed in the effort to develop a good simulation. The procedure involves several steps. It starts to aggregate the national tables according to significant industry detail in the region. A simple multipler analysis is used to update the table from 1958 to 1966 input-output levels. This is feasible since it accounts for general inflation and increased output over time. However, it is flawed in that it does not allow for correction of peculiari- 42 ties associated with 1958. It therefore develops a regional interindustry transactions matrix and estimate of imports and exports. The final step is to compute a direct require- ments matrix and the inverse matrix as required for com- parable models, depending on the purpose at hand. might be applicable to a projection for any region, but in exposition the reference to Washington State reflects the specific region whose output, employment, and in- come is to be projected by this empirical study. 211 The Compilation of Data on Gross Private Investment in the State of Washington Robert Haney Scott and George Chou University of Washington December 1969 41 pp COM-73-11702 This is one of a series of reports prepared in connec- tion with the Washington Econometric Model and ex- amines the problem that if consistency of national and regional product accounts can be maintained, it should be possible to look at the sum of each of the State product accounts as the value or the accounts for the Nation as a whole. An attempt is made to estimate investment ex- penditure for the State by collecting and estimating ex- penditure data (rather than production data) from a variety of sources that, when added together, would pro- vide what appeared to be the conceptual equivalent to the value of investment as calculated by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce. This paper provides a description of the trial and errors, and finally, the best expedient in estimating what has been found to date. 212 Estimates of Purchases of Goods and Services by Local Governments and the State of Washington for 1955-1967 Hironkuni Tamura and Judy A. Bailey University of Washington September 1969 11 PP COM-74-10624 This paper is one of a series of reports which describe phases of an econometric study of the State of Washing- ton. Its chief objective is to develop estimates of State and local government purchases of goods and services from 1955-1967 by developing the data for final demand of the government sector of the Washington State Prod- uct Account, an important statistical series to the econo- metric model. 213 An Empirical Regional Input-Output Projection Model: The State of Washington 1980 Charles M. Tiebout University of Washington 1967 16 pp COM-74-10641 This paper explains the model which was developed to relate projections of endogenous variables of a particular region— the State of Washington in the instance of this projection— to exogenously provided projections of acti- vities elsewhere. The model is presented in a form which 214 The Structure of the West Virginia Economy, 1965, A Preliminary Report Regional Research Institute West Virginia University November 1967 6 pp plus three tables COM-74-10307 This is a preliminary report of an on-going input-output study of the structure and development of the West Virginia economy since 1965. The tables in this report are not preliminary, however; they are the final tables for 1965 marking the end of the first phase of this study. LOCATION, INDUSTRIAL 215 Industrial Location and Regional Policy in Economic Development William Alonso University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 74 February 1969 46 pp COM-74-10643 The introduction to this paper discusses the location of industry principally in terms of a choice between a principal city and hinterland locations. Section II presents a brief and non-technical overview of the abstract theory of industrial location. Section III deals with other factors of location usually slighted in abstract theory proceeding from the viewpoint of the businessman or project director. Section IV raises questions concerning the evaluation of locations from the viewpoint of national interest, and Section V suggests considerations regarding regional planning as a factor in location. 216 Industrial Development and Changes in Occupational Structures E. M. Beck & Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin August 1973 22 pp COM-74-10544 The impact of industrial development on the occupa- tional structure of a developing region is examined through changes in market participation, sectoral reloca- tion, work specialization, occupational upgrading, the bureaucratization of work, and the distribution of labor over occupational categories. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the construction of a large manu- 43 factoring facility in North Central Illinois are compared to parallel data from a control region across the State. The results showed that the impact was marginal in terms of market participation and work specialization. The effect was more pronounced for sectoral relocation, occupational upgrading, and work bureaucratization. Although the dis- tribution of labor over occupations revealed no significant shifts, the industrializing area demonstrated a general trend toward greater proportions of labor in managerial and service occupations. 217 Some Effects of Industrial Development on Heads of Households E. M. Beck (University of Colorado), Louis Dotson (University of Tennessee) and Gene F. Summers (University of Wisconsin) November 1972 13 pp COM-74-10563 This paper examines the short-term changes in the socio-economic characteristics of heads of households in a rural, predominately agricultural area of Illinois, during a period of limited industrial development. Two inde- pendent cross-sectional surveys of employed heads of households were taken to determine the changes between 1966 and 1971. Results showed that the region which acquired new industry developed a population of employed heads of households that are younger, better educated, and hold higher status occupations, yet have no higher family background status than those residing in the region prior to the industrial development. The implication is that these changes have developed a base of employed heads of households with characteristics which may stimulate further development by increasing economic expansion by encouraging more industry to relocate in the region. 218 Industrial Development and the Elderly: A Longitudinal Analysis Frank Clemente and Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin 1973 11 PP COM-74-10568 The impact of industrial development in non-metropoli- tan regions upon the economic status of the aged is ex- amined. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the construction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois are compared to parallel data from a control region across the State. The findings suggest that industrial development does accelerate the decline in the economic status of the elderly. 219 Some Changing Location Factors in the Electric Power Industry John H. Cumberland and Charles S. Bigson Jr. University of Maryland November 1968 50 pp COM-74-10761 This study contributes to the development of location theory from the viewpoint of the public interest by ex- amining some market and non-market factors in the power industry. The paper is divided into two sections: (1) deter- minants of conventional power plant location (coal- burning) and (2) location factors for nuclear power plants. 220 Plant Location Decision Processes Robert Dean Memphis State University 1972 31 pp COM-74-10010 The primary purpose of this report is to provide a better understanding of how plant location decisions are made. In particular it focuses on the sources and types of in- formation utifized in choosing a new plant site, the par- ticipants in the decision, their consideration of alterna- tives and the institutional and individual constraints affecting the decision. The study is limited to plants in manufacturing industries. Officials in some 150 firms were selected for interviews on the basis of their plant location activity, firm size and willingness to discuss in detail the nature of their plant location decisions. Interviews were usually held with a number of persons at various levels of responsibility in the plant location process. For small firms, interviews were with the president and/or person responsible for the plant site. This report provides a summary of the survey findings and the conclusions reached by the researchers. The original research was performed under an EDA grant to Kent State University. 221 The Comparative Costs of Location of Manufacturing Firms in Urban Areas: A Boston Case Study Andrew M. Hamer Harvard University March 1972 209 pp COM-73-12006 In this study, the author's doctoral thesis, the differ- ences in location costs between central cities and suburbs is presented. The results of an examination of the Boston area are detailed. The author concludes that since the search for cost minimization by a wide range of manufacturing firms involves very few factors of pro- duction, it is to the firm's advantage to seek a suburban location. Land cost variations play a commanding role in a manufacturing location, together with the price varia- tion in the provision of government services to the firm. Land price differentials exert this impact when the cost advantages of the core area for most manufacturing firms have been largely eliminated. Net losses of central-city employment are contained only by the fact that many core firms have sunk costs associated with earlier deci- sions to locate there. The view presented in this study bears not only on the behavior of individual firms, but also on forecasters of economic behavior who place manu- facturing location decisions at the heart of events that have a decisive effect on urban employment and residen- tial location patterns. 44 222 225 Industrial Location as a Factor in Regional Economic Development Charles L Hamman Management and Economics Research, Inc. August 1966 101 pp COM-70-01264 The purpose of the report is to assist the Regional Development Commissions, created under the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965, in deter- mining their role in the field of industrial development. The study examines the subject of plant locations in the United States, identifies some of the reasons for plant location decisions and reviews the significant trends over the years in industrial location. The study also reviews the development agencies and programs whose goal is to promote economic growth through industrial development. In viewing the mandate of the Regional Commissions, as set out in the Act, the report points out that although there is much the Commission can do in research and planning to promote industrial development, it would be more difficult for them to "enter into the competitive activity of industrial development promotion." 223 Forecasting the Location of Industries Curtis C. Harris Jr. University of Maryland April 18, 1969 9 pp COM-74-10633 The purpose of this paper is to present the derivation of a new set of industrial location equations of a former model (State and County Projections: A Progress Report of the Regional Forecasting Project, Occasional Paper, published by the Bureau of Business and Economic Re- search, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland (Jan. 1969), for forecasting economic activity for all of the approximately 3,000 county-type areas in the United States. 224 A Multi-Regional, Multi-Industry Forecasting Model Curtis C. Harris, Jr. University of Maryland November 8, 1969 20 pp COM-74-10946 This paper presents a dynamic multi-regional, multi- industry model that can be operational for forecasting purposes. It is an out-growth of a previous model by the author and was applied to a system of 3,112 regions (counties) and 100 industry sectors, using data for the years 1965 and 1966. The Industrial Ecology of Small and Intermediate-Sized Technical Companies: Implications for Regional Economic Development Cary Hoffman University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 19 May 1971 31 pp COM-74-10680 This study has been directed towards identifying the minimum requirements of technical companies that must be met for them to be able to operate effectively in an area without going to extraordinary efforts. A review was made of previous studies in a number of fields including economic geography, regional planning, economic develop- ment, urbanology, and business administration. In addi- tion, a field data collection effort was undertaken to determine the various facilities, services, suppliers and other factors that affect the survival, growth, and opera- tional effectiveness of small technical companies in a local area. 226 A Dynamic Implication of Static Inefficiency Koichi Mera Harvard University October 1966 18 pp COM-7411221 This paper examines the cumulative effect of the re- distribution of factors of production on regional and national efficiency when static regional equity goals are pursued. In particular, it considers the aggregate consequ- ences of regional redistribution of productive factors if there is some inefficiency at a given point in time, and whether a subsidized region will become better off if inefficiency is cumulatively aggravated over time. 227 An Evaluation of Local Industrial Subsidies for Regional Development John D. Milliken University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 13 June 1969 41 pp COM-74-10783 Given unequal geographic allocation of resources and economic activity, many communities have formed local industrial development corporations (LIDC's) for the pur- pose of subsidizing the location of industry within the community. This paper evaluates the sources and uses of revenues utilized in terms of efficient allocation of public and private resources in a regional context. The economic development problem involves either the alloca- tion of funds over all communities in the region as a "grass roots" approach, or concentration of funds in the larger growth centers and reliance on the spread effects of this investment to filter down to the smaller com- munities. These two allocation criteria are compared and evaluated in terms of regional development. 45 22B Criteria for the Location of Federal Regional Facilities A. H. Pascal and Nancy E. Hausner The RAND Corporation April 1966 76 pp PB 178885 This paper is a planning document that examines prob- lems facing EDA as a result of its responsibilities in the coordination of Federal programs in economic develop- ment and associated concerns about optimal location of public facilities. It presents guidelines for selecting loca- tions for Federal regional facilities, taking explicit account of the additional costs and the local economic bene- fits that might occur if certain sorts of field activities were directed to depressed areas. It also presents a case study in which the guidelines are applied to the location pattern of a particular agency, the Small Busi- ness Administration. The major conclusions are that in the example chosen for detailed analysis, the Pacific Coastal Area, the SBA has made a reasonable choice of field headquarters location on cost-effective grounds, but that regional facili- ties like those represented by an SBA Area Office could make a significant contribution to economic advance in depressed areas without having a substantial effect on Agency costs. 229 Manufacturing Linkages in the Philadelphia Economy: Some Evidence of External Agglomeration Forces Gerald J. Karaska (Syracuse University) Regional Science Research Institute October 1969 16 pp Published in Geographical Analysis October 1969 pp 354-369 This paper is presented as a first step toward better comprehension of the nature of the agglomeration forces. The substance of the discussion is the identification of strong local linkages between Philadelphia industries in their procurement patterns. These input linkages are first generally described, then a typology of all industries is presented. This analysis of industries according to the strength of their local input linkages is presented both as some measure of the nature of the external economies of scale, and as identification of the industries exemplify- ing those characteristics. In addition to these factors, this paper discusses both natural and urbanization amenities which are becoming increasingly more important in choosing new industrial locations, especially climate. Pollution has also become a great problem to industries whose production depends greatly upon high quality air and water. In closing, if the metropolitan regions of the South and West are to continue receiving a disproportionate share of industrial growth, great efforts must be made to retain remaining natural amenities and improve urbaniza- tion amenities in the older northern metropolitan areas. 231 Trends in Industrial Location and Their Impact on Regional Economic Development Benjamin H. Stevens, Robert C. Douglass and Carolyn B. Neighbor Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper No. 31 May 1969 38 pp COM-74-10753 In order to determine the extent to which industrial decisions can be influenced through a variety of public investments and policies to attract industry to less- developed or depressed areas, this paper has focused on identifying trends, isolating the causes, and measuring the impact of these changes in maufacturing activity on regional economic growth. 232 Profile Change When Industry Moves Into a Rural Area John T. Scott (University of Illinois, Urbana) University of Wisconsin February 1973 12 PP COM-74-10547 This paper examines what happens to the economic and social profile of a rural community when industry is in- troduced. The profile delineates the type, amount, and ratio of existing resources and products of the community. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the con- struction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois is employed. The evidence suggests that the most profound impact is on the land use and support systems. Additional changes are realized in the size and composition of the labor force, retail sales and services, housing development, and the demand for schools and other publicly provided services. 230 New and Changing Factors in Industrial Location Benjamin H. Stevens and Carolyn A. Brackett Regional Science Research Institute July 1967 13 pp This paper mentions briefly the traditional factors involved in choosing industrial locations. They are (1) Transportation services, (2) Power costs, (3) Labor supply, and (4) State and local taxes. 233 Industrial Development and Urbanization: A U.S. Case Elwood M. Beck Jr. (University of Colorado) Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin 1972 24 pp COM-74-10546 One of a series of papers related to the "Hennepin Study", University of Wisconsin. The purpose of this paper is to examine the feasibility 46 of industrial development in rural areas and small towns without urbanization. The authors begin the examination with a consideration of some factors which appear to account for the past parallel of industrialization and urbanization. They examine the current viability of the factors. They report some results from their monitoring of a case study of industrial development in rural areas. 234 Technology, Labor Markets, and Location Fred A. Tarpley Jr. Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 4 April 19, 1968 12 PP COM-74-10435 This paper traces the effect of technical advances in the telephone industry on the location of operator facilities. It reveals a differential impact of technological unemployment of operators upon telephone exchanges in central city locations and suburban locations. For example, the turnover rates of operators are twice as high in central city locations as in suburban locations. The company's policy of hiring young females (age 18 to 20) and the competitive disadvantage with respect to hours and location of work are major factors for this turnover situation. This study further shows that it is easier to hire operators at suburban and exurban offices than at those in the central city. Southern Bell has been requested to provide detailed data on its Atlanta opera- tion to support the hypotheses suggested in this paper. 235 Towards Clarification of the Social Effects of the WESTON Accelerator George S. Tolley University of Chicago January 1969 26 pp COM-74-10288 This is a background paper prepared in the early stages of accelerator construction that outlines the scope, struc- ture, and alternatives that need consideration in setting up research appropriate for estimating a wide range of effects, costs and benefits that might accrue to the locality, region or nation, or to various categories of individuals who potentially might be affected by the con- struction and operation of the National Accelerator Laboratory at Weston, Illinois. The statement is a plan- ning document to guide establishment of a series of investigations of anticipated impacts. It concludes with an outline of goals to be considered, decisions regarding alternative accelerator locations, and a listing of entities of analysis and capsule summaries of eight specific tasks. This is a supporting document to the final summary report, "The National Accelerator Laboratory: A Study of the Social Impacts of Technology," including a series of in- dividual papers, dated October 1969. LOCATION, INTRAURBAN 236 Point Patterns in Urban Regions: Two Complementary Tests Shlomo Angel University of California, Berkeley Working Paper 91 January 1969 22 pp COM-74-10024 This paper is concerned with the development of statistical methods for the analysis of the spatial structure of population and employment in urban areas and regions. The author reports on the development of two comple- mentary statistical tests which allow one to describe the geometry of a scatter of points on a plane in a way that has not been thought of before. One test examines the spatial structure of point loca- tions: the formation of clusters and the spatial interrela- tions among clusters. The second attempts to establish a relation between a pattern of points and the region in which it lies. 237 Trade Patterns and Community Identity: Five Years Later Frank Clemente and Dean Rojek, University of Wisconsin, and E. M. Beck, University of Colorado University of Wisconsin 1973 6 PP COM-74-10554 This paper examines the argument that changing facets of rural life, primarily technologically based variables, are rendering trade patterns irrelevant to community identity. Data from a longitudinal (1966-1971) study of the construction of a large manufacturing facility in North Central Illinois is employed to ascertain the extent to which the relationship between the locus of economic activity and community of identification is diminishing over time. The impact of industrial development upon the relationship is also examined. The data indicate a weak association between economic interaction and the com- munity of identification. The data does not suggest, how- ever, that the relationship is diminishing over time, nor that industrial development has any substantial effect upon the relationship. 238 Bivariate Quadrat Analysis of the Dispersion of Retail Establishments and Population in Urban Areas Andrei Rogers and Juan Martin University of California, Berkeley May 1969 36 pp COM-73-11722 This paper discusses the use of bivariate clustering models (see Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion) which may be used to account for both the number of conveni- ence goods establishments in a cell and the number of people residing in that same cell. The data used for empirical testing are the spatial patterns of retail estab- lishments, retail employment, and residential population in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia during the year 1968. 47 239 Bivariate Quadrat Analysis of the Spatial Pattern of Retail Establishments and Population Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley June 1967 25 pp COM-74-10756 This paper continues previous research regarding con- venience goods establishments and shopping goods stores by introducing a bivariate clustering model which may be used to account for both the number of convenience goods establishments in a cell and the number of people residing in the same cell. Data used for empirical testing are the frequency distributions collected by Roland Artie (study on Stockholm economy) and Brian Berry (Spokane, Washington economy). 240 Some Computer Programs for Quadrat Analysis Andrei Rogers, Juan Martin, Norber Gomar University of California, Berkeley May 1969 143 pp COM-74-10222 This paper contains seven computer programs for use, among other things, in intra-urban location analysis. Two programs generate and map random, dispersed and clustered point patterns which approximate the Poisson, Binomial and negative binomial distributions. The third program computes nearest neighbor statistics. The fourth and fifth programs, superimpose a rectangular grid pattern over a point pattern and compute expected and observed frequency distributions for the Poisson, Binomial, Nega- tive Binomial, Neyman Type A, Poisson Binomial, Poisson Negative Binomial Distributions. The six and seventh pro- grams find the bivariate frequency distributions of a point pattern that distinguishes between two classes of objects. These distributions are: Generalized Bivariate Correlated Poisson, Compound Bivariate Correlated Poisson, Bivari- ate Correlated Poisson, Contagious Bivariate Negative Binomial, Compound Bivariate Uncorrelated Poisson. 242 An Operational Approach to an Efficient Federal System Part One— On the Specification of Horizontal Relationships Eugene Smolensky, Richard Burton and Nicholas Tideman The University of Chicago February 15, 1968 30 pp COM-74-10108 This paper initiates research to sharpen the distinction between "problems which exist in metropolitan areas, and problems which exist by virtue of the inadequacies of gov- ernmental structure in the metropolitan areas". This struc- tural/nonstructural distinction is operationally important to governmental planning, particularly to EDA, since it drastically affects the choice of policy instruments. The author shows how the optimal production level for a public good can be achieved, considering all those upon whom taxes or other non-user costs are to be levied, as well as those who will benefit, by use of location theory. He adds two additional concepts: (1) that demand is related to distance by transport costs, and (2) public goods may be provided through a network of (homogeneous) facilities. He concludes that a network approach in a uniform plan provides the necessary and efficient conditions for the boundaries of districts to provide a local public good efficiently. The prototype for the network is found by maximizing average net benefits per household, with respect to facility size and market area. With an equal distribution of net benefits, facilities of the correct size and market area could be expected to arise through a competitive process. But in order to insure the correct spacing of these districts, delineation of boundaries by a higher level of authority would be needed. 243 Intra-Metropolitan Location and the Public Sector Jerome Rothenberg Massachusetts Institute of Technology February 1971 149 pp COM-74-10616 241 Statistical Inference in Quadrat Analysis Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley October 1968 19 pp COM-74-10305 This paper discusses the problem of choosing the appropriate probability distribution and estimating its parameters for Quadrat Analysis of intra-urban economic activity location. (See Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dis- persion). It covers the maximum likelihood estimation and the evaluation of the goodness of fit by the Chi Square test. It also covers the estimation of a distribution's moments and the Neyman-Pearson method of hypothesis testing using power functions. The problem of picking the optimal quadrat or grid size is also discussed and it is recommended that the grid size that maximizes the value of the power function be selected. This research effort is an attempt to isolate the mutual interaction between the central city and suburbs of a metropolitan area that have something to do with the urgent problems of race, poverty, crime, welfare, conges- tion and pollution. This would lead to a possible formula- tion of public policy which would not err by treating symptoms instead of causes. An understanding of this mutuality is critical toward selecting both the most ap- propriate segment of the system where policy interference can be effective and the most effective policy instruments to use. The research project developed a family of mathema- tical models, each one designed to throw light on a different aspect of the interactive system. Each model is manipulated analytically and/or through computer simula- tion to reveal its distinctive properties. Finally, an attempt is made to relate the model to the real world by subjecting its parameters to econometric estimation. The project is not yet completed, although a number of models have been developed and, for the more com- plicated models in this group, computer simulation pro- cedures have been prepared to permit fuller exploration. 48 However, simulations could not be carried out and the gathering of empirical data to carry out the econometric estimation could not be carried out due to the exhaustion of funds. This report, therefore, does not describe final results either in terms of an exhaustive analysis and quantifica- tion of any of the models or of desirable public policy prescriptions. of such factors as economies of scale, factor substitution, and elastic demands. The principal conclusion is that the minimizing of transport costs is a doubtful criterion of location. The third purpose is to make precise the common ground between the theories of rent and of loca- tion, showing that they are equivalent. LOCATION, THEORY 244 Location, Primacy, And Regional Economic Development William Alonso Harvard University October 1966 23 pp COM-74-11207 This paper examines the nature of theories of eco- nomic growth and development with emphasis on the differential rates of growth in principal cities (urbaniza- tion) and the less advanced areas. Among the principal policy goals to be achieved are growth in national income (efficiency) or a more equal distribution of income (equity); these policy goals may often be in conflict. Regional definitions are often ambiguous particularly with respect to size and scale. Theoretical developments have empha- sized the importance of principal regional centers (growth poles) for growth and permits policies that seek to equalize income between regions. The author finds that virtually every nation, today, has based its policy on the belief that the principal city is too big and policies of regional equalization are needed. Although reference is frequently made to depressed areas, the main focus of this paper is directed to policies of developing countries and the long range changes which have taken place. The author summarizes his findings as follows: (1) It appears that a policy that pursues concentration is a possible path to satisfy the efficiency goal. (2) Such a policy may be in agreement with the equity goal, espe- cially in the long run. However, (3) we do not know whether long-run structural changes make possible some form of decentralization policy that satisfy the efficiency goal better while recognizing earlier the equity goal. Finally, (4) there are no good quantitative criteria for comparison of alternative regional distribution with respect to equity, especially if a time dimension is added. Thus, there is a great need for factual knowledge to determine what alternatives are open, and for the develop- ment of conceptual tools for choosing among these alter- natives. 245 A Reformulation of Classical Location Theory and Its Relation to Rent Theory William Alonso University of California, Berkeley February 1967 pp 23-44 COM-74-10765 This paper has three purposes. The first is to illustrate a method of conceiving and solving the problems of classical location theory by the use of vector analysis. The second is to extend this theory into the consideration 246 Heuristic Spatial Allocation Robert M. Ray University of North Carolina Working Paper EDA No. 4 January 1969 53 pp This paper attempts to explore the complex nature of the efficient allocation of discrete activities in space. The discussion is addressed to the problem of optimal design. A restatement of the quadratic assignment problem of Koopmans and Beckmann is given. Because of Lefeber's mathematical assumption that the scale of production for any industry at any location may vary continuously along some linear expansion path, no individual firm whose scale of operation is fixed may enter into the analy- sis. A brief discussion of existing algorithms which might be used in the approximation of economically efficient regional and urban landscapes. The last section deals with the special nature of the industrial space-location problem. While it is proposed that such algorithms would be developed for approxi- mating efficient solutions to Koopmans-Beckmann pro- blem, it is believed that such heuristics may lead to a deeper understanding of efficient urban space. 247 Returns to Scale and Elasticities of Substitution by Size of Establishment for Two-Digit U.S. Manufacturing Industries— 1958, 1963 Daniel Shefer Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper No. 26 1968 81 pp COM-74-10668 This paper discusses the problem of attempting to quantify agglomeration economies. It deals with the em- pirical investigation of economies of scale on manufac- turing industries. Various theoretical and methodological approaches to defining economies of scale are reviewed. An estimate of Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function is obtained to fit the parameters of the model used in the empirical investigation. The problem of choosing the right data for different models is discussed and it is concluded that while accuracy and availability of data is in and of itself a problem, model specification and selection is by far the most important issue which should be resolved if any meaningful interpretation can be attached to establishing parameter estimates for economies of scale. 49 248 Location Theory and Programming Models: The Von Thunen Case Benjamin H. Stevens Regional Science Research Institute RSRI Discussion Paper No. 19 November 1967 30 pp COM-73-11960/4 The purpose of this paper is to outline certain peculiari- ties of some typical location problems and discuss a general methodology for handling. The discussion is illuminated by a specific example drawn from the clas- sical theory of agricultural location. Discussed are: 1) difficulties inherent in problems of location theory, 2) mathematical programming as a general model form in location theory, and 3) programming formulations of Von Thunen's agricultural location theory. It is hoped the paper demonstrates that the program- ming approach to problems in location theory may still have untapped potentialities. The demonstration is only suggestive, not definitive. The relevant question is whether the adoption of this approach, which appears particularly applicable to location problems, can lead to improve- ments in the systemization of the theory and eventually to an integrated general model of location and space- economy. This last is surely needed if there is to be a regional science. 249 Locational Strategies for Competitive Systems Michael B. Teitz University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 70 1968 20 pp COM-74-10775 This paper discusses the Hotelling problem as applied to spatial competition. It contains an explanation of the mathematical structure of Hotelling and its logical and theoretical extension to location theory. MANPOWER 250 A Canonical Approach to Assessing Occupational Mobility Matrices E. M. Beck, (University of Colorado) University of Wisconsin September 1972 16 pp COM-73-11701 This paper explores a procedure for determining the amount of inheritance in an occupational structure that avoids translating the origin and destination positions into scale scores. A canonical technique is examined that permits assessment to which origin positions determine destination positions. This procedure involves expressing the occupational positions as binary variables, then ob- taining canonical correlations among the sets of binary variables. An application of this approach in investi- gating the effects of short-term economic diversification upon intra-generational occupational mobility is provided. 251 The Role of Labor in Regional Multisectoral Growth Models Susan McDougall Choy University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 99 June 1969 38 pp COM-74-10661 The first part of this paper is devoted to outlining the general form of an integrated demographic and economic growth model that uses the cohort-survival and input- output models as a base. Concentration is on the relation- ships among the various aspects of the economy and population and the assumption necessary for a workable model. The second part is a detailed examination of the role of the labor force, and the third part presents some empirical findings on the response of the various sources of labor supply to changes in demand for labor. 252 An Evaluation of EDA Training Related Projects Findings-Analysis-Conclusion-Recommendations Development Associates Inc. 1972 275 pp COM-74-10942 This report presents the results of a study of EDA train- ing-related projects conducted by Development Associates, Inc., from March through August 1971. The purpose of the study was to: 1) describe EDA training-related proj- ects; 2) measure the impact of selected projects; and 3) develop recommendations based on empirical data for use in future EDA training-related efforts. The report consists of two volumes; Volume I contains findings, data analysis, conclusions and recommendations. Volume II contains detailed narratives on each project evaluated and the evaluation instruments used. While this study points out problem areas which must be addressed, it also shows that EDA has a special role to play in the Federal Government's portfolio of manpower programs. This role is best described as one which goes beyond skill training and attempts to build adult com- munity training institutions which will contribute to the development of both human and economic resources at the local level. 253 Ghetto Labor Markets— Problems and Programs Peter B. Doeringer Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 35 May 1968 25 pp COM-74-10864 Inadequate education, poorly designed welfare systems, and various forms of discrimination all contribute to the problems of ghetto poverty. Permanently eradicating many of these problems requires long-range programs for up- 50 grading urban educational systems and for vigorously promoting equality in housing and employment. Under certain conditions, however, long-term programs can be usefully supplemented by more immediate programs di- rected towards human resource development and im- proved transportation facilities. The author discusses elements of what would be an appropriate mix between long-range and short-range programs. 254 Human Capital Determinants of Structural Unemployment Robert M. Fearn University of North Carolina 1973 97 pp COM-74-10566 This paper is an exploratory study investigating the role played by the stock of human capital in determining the level and rate of unemployment adjustment among local labor markets. Different analytical and empirical approaches are reviewed and the hypotheses concerning the effect of human capital and other variables on unem- ployment are specified. Cross sectional regressions are used to examine the determinants of area unemployment among the 150 major labor market areas in the United States at recent business cycle peaks (July 1953, July 1957, May I960, and November 1969). This is complement- ed by an analysis of local area unemployment over time, from November 1966 to March 1972. 255 Sociological Considerations in Entrepreneurial Response: A Preliminary Analysis James R. Finley Cornell University 1967 37 pp The notation of entrepreneurial response in economic development has been long recognized as an important element. Entrepreneurial behavior does not easily or neatly fit into any single academic discipline such as economics, sociology or psychology and has thus been largely neglected as a substantive area of inquiry. Thrusts have been made in the direction of defining the place of entrepreneurship in a theory of development but empirical work on a large scale has been lacking. This paper is intended to be a brief and preliminary thrust which attempts to pull together significant theoretical per- spectives from other than economic disciplines and find their articulation with economics. The first major section is concerned with the cash balances theory of economic prosperity and depression and attempts to show the relevance of viewing regions in terms of relative depression when compared with higher performing regions. The next section relates major findings of the adoption and diffusion literature in the rural sociology tradition. The Parsonian framework is analyzed with special reference to the entrepreneurial and economic aspects of the theory. The final section is concerned with an integration and synthesis of the models presented. 256 Changes in Labor Force Participation, Employment and In-Migration in Sub-National Economies Seymour Goldstone and Dennis Schiffel Battelle Memorial Institute December 1971 253 pp COM-74-10723 This report presents the results of a study which in- dicates that demographic comparisons of labor force par- ticipation rates are most fruitfully made on the basis of sex, age, educational attainment, presence of small children, race and marital status. Also that the most important demographic comparisons of group em ployment (unemployment) rates are framed in terms of educational attainment, age, family status, sex and race. Demographic attributes indicated as significant for in- migration are primarily age, sex and educational attain- ment. It is typically the interaction of these characteris- tics that leads to widely varying labor market behavior. 257 Geographic Dimensions of Manpower Policy Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky February 1969 438 pp This paper attempts to examine the interrelationships among lagging, intermediate, and congested regions, and to suggest what kind of policies should be applied to each kind of region in view of the relevant opportunity costs that face decision-makers responsible for the loca- tion of both public and private investment. Moreover, the respective roles of manpower and human resource de- velopment programs, infrastructure investment in the narrower sense (roads, industrial sites, power, etc.), and labor mobility programs are integrated into the analysis. 258 The Evaluation of Manpower Training Programs Daniel Quinn Mills Harvard University February 1968 18 pp COM-74-10366 The author presents a brief inquiry into the nature and potential of techniques of economic evaluation for manpower training programs. Several levels of evaluation are discussed: efficiency in achieving societal goals, com- parison of selected programs, level of program outputs, measurement of relative importance of different inputs. Difficulties and problems inherent in these approaches are aired. The discussion of techniques for evaluating the effici- ency of public investment in training programs under- scores the difficulties of quantification of costs and re- turns of manpower training programs; the problems of specifying appropriate variables for econometric mod- els; and the difficulties in both survey and control and trainee group selection arising from the dynamics of the job market and the economic conditions prevailing during the time horizon studied. 51 259 A Statistical Report on Public and Private Employment Agencies Mack A. Moore Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 19 July 1970 54 pp COM-74-10877 The objective of this study is to compare the clientele served by public and private agencies with particular attention on the characteristics of job applicants and of job orders registered with the two types of agencies for a common period. The author has done some experimental work toward the construction of a method for examining the critical issue of structural unemployment by measur- ing the "gap" between the characteristics of applicants and the specifications of job orders. The percentage of non-white applicants is much less for private agencies in a clerical labor market than that of public agencies. However, the public agency has a slightly higher percent- age in referral activity of its total applicants (55.2% v. 45.4%) while the private agency achieves a higher percent- age (23.3% v. 15.2%) in the placement activity. As to structural unemployment, this analysis shows that un- employed people are not anxious for training opportuni- ties including people on income maintenance, and the emphasis on educational needs reflecting demand by em- ployers in setting their hiring standards is uncertain. 260 Apprenticeship and On-the-Job Training Programs in Southern Growth Centers Richard Snarr University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 9 April 1969 32 pp COM-73-11724 This paper is an analysis of programs of investment in human resources in Southern growth centers, with emphasis on a particular group of people, the Negro, in an attempt to investigate questions relating to: (1) who participates, (2) to what extent, (3) in what type of jobs, and (4) what are some policy implications based on the findings. This study makes use of data from the Equal Employ- ment Opportunity Employer Information Report EEO-1 for 1966. Data are available from all employers (exclusive of the Federal government) who had one-hundred or more employees. From these reports it was possible to deter- mine the number of Negroes and Anglos, by sex, who were apprentices, or white-collar and production on-the- job trainees. by "approximating" the problems out of existence in the same way legislatures attempt to eliminate absolute short- ages of doctors and material health care resources. In- stead, physicians must be provided with incentives that will cause them to permanently relocate their practices in medically depressed areas. Thus, the purpose of this study is to provide planners with some insight into the kinds of incentives that are likely to produce desired results. Since the practice of medicine varies significantly among physicians, the second purpose of this study is to identify differences in the relationships between physi- cian location and the economic-based determinants in- herent in the geographic areas examined. 262 Job Creation and Occupational Upgrading for the Non-White Labor Force in Eleven Large Metropolitan Areas Manuel Zymelman Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1970 20 pp COM-74-10671 Should manpower policy simply emphasize putting the unemployed non-whites to work for the sake of reducing the rate of unemployment? The author suggests that we must increase the rate of penetration of non-whites into jobs where their participation rates are completely out of proportion with their share in total population. Chang- ing the distribution of occupations of employed people of a given group depends mainly on making available jobs in the different occupations for the people in that group on the one hand, and on preparing the members of the groups to occupy successfully the available jobs on the other. Coordination of demand and supply of jobs is a must if this goal is to be attained. Projections to 1975 for the demand for different occupations, share of the non-white labor force and occupations for eleven metro- politan areas are presented and evaluated. 263 A Manpower Model for Urban Ghettos Manuel Zymelman Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 1968 24 pp COM-74-10672 261 Physicians, Hospital!, and the Demand for Health Care Services in the Southeastern United States Richard F. Wacht, (Georgia State University) University of North Carolina March 1973 36 pp COM-74-10571 The major purpose of this study relates to the fact that the maldistribution of physicians cannot be corrected This paper discusses the analytical foundations of an iterative demand model for reducing unemployment among the unskilled and semi-skilled workers of the ur- ban ghettos. It contains a brief description of the un- employment problem among inner-city residents. An ex- planation of the mathematical structure of the model is presented. The author shares the opinion that in the long run we must increase the rate of penetration of non-whites into jobs where their participation rates are completely out of proportion with their share in total population. 52 PLANNING, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION 264 The Demand for Participation in Large American Cities Alan Altshuler Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 113 pp COM-74-10625 This paper discusses the general issues associated with efforts of black citizens to gain a voice in the decision making processes exercised by the government of major American cities. The treatise develops historical pre- cedents and discusses major issues involved in nine major topics: (1) Community Control and Integration. (2) Community Control and White Interests. (3) Community Control vs. Coordination. (4) Community vs. Neighborhood. (5) The Definition of Neighborhoods. (6) Mechanisms of Representation and Account- ability. (7) Finance. (8) Personnel. (9) The Federal and State Roles. The majority of the discussion is devoted to the two latter topics. 265 A Study of Local Leadership in Community Economic Planning Paul S. Bonnas & others Human Sciences Research Incorporated April 1966 216 pp PB-178932 This research was undertaken to evaluate the experi- ences of local planning committees that were required under the terms of the Area Redevelopment Act of 1961, to initiate and coordinate the development program plans for the counties eligible for aid under that legislation. The investigation established criteria for measuring committee performance, and techniques for evaluation. Data on committees were obtained from 1300 responses from special questionnaires mailed to 2000 committee members. The major finding was that committees per- formed well in providing leadership in two roles estab- lished as measures of attainment; namely, economic development and retraining programs for the unemployed. Four features of effective committees were identified: (1) active participation of members; (2) formal structure, high quality leadership and general committee cohesive- ness; (3) representation of community interests on the committee, and (4) active community interest in commit- tee programs. 266 Correlates of Communities Response: Findings from New York Counties Pierre Clavel Cornell University 1968 29 pp w/footnotes COM-73-11729 As part of a larger project sponsored by EDA and carried out at Cornell University, on Alternative Forms of Multi-county Organization for Development, this paper focuses on a preliminary exploration and test of a model predictive of community response. The basis for the work is the assumption that among the factors responsible for local economic development, an important and neglected one is the community's capacity to respond to opportuni- ties posed by its environment. Variables in the model include location relative to metropolitan center, intensity of communication with the larger system, and organiza- tional access to national sources of finance and man- agerial, as well as demographic and employment changes, and complexity of the planning function. The author concluded that the model is workable, and recommends its use in evaluating Federal inputs into development pro- grams. He also specifies further analysis suggested by his work. 267 A Simulation of Some Possible Outcomes of the Proposed "Community Self-Determination Act" Matthew Edel Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 1969 25 pp COM-74-10290 This paper presents projections of possible outcomes arising from the organization of community development corporations as proposed under the Community Self- Determination Act (Senate Bill No. 33, 1969). A limited set of assumptions concerning size of program, types of in- vestments, likely profitability and government expendi- tures, reflective of the proposal, are used in aggregate simulations to determine the time frame within which Government income (through taxes) would exceed govern- ment expenditures. A set of optimistic, but possible, as- sumptions and a series of more restrictive assumptions are empirically developed to reflect a range of outcomes. The author concludes that such a program stands a reasonable chance of success under the criteria used. 268 Citizens Participation in the Model Cities' First Rows Langley Keyes and Lisa Peattie Massachusetts Institute of Technology November 1969 22 pp COM-73-11704 This is a review of the experiences of citizen participa- tion in urban model cities programs during the 1960's. The information in the report is culled from the experi- ences of a group of people who have been involved with citizen participation in Model Cities Planning. Many of these experiences have been reported by Roland L. Warren, Model Cities First Round: Politics, Planning and Parti- cipation, AIP Journal, July 1969. Case experiences from a number of Northeastern cities are used to illustrate the reasons for failure to involve effective mechanisms for citizen participation. Various models are described and their limitations enumerated. A series of suggested recommendations which might help to insure satisfactory citizen participation are raised but with little assurance that they can be made opera- 53 tional in any set of guidelines for Federal planning legislation. The report concludes that effective citizen participation cannot be expected from planning models that demand "comprehensiveness." tends with approximately equal frequency to identify pyramidal and non-pyramidal power structures. The deci- sional approach, however, most often identifies non-py- ramidal power structures. An Operational Index of System Response Capacity Pluman W. Kluess and Pierre Clavel Cornell University 1970 11 PP COM-73-11968/7 This paper reports the development of an operational index as an improved measure of system response in that it allows for more complete discrimination be- tween communities; provides what appears to be a unidimensional scale reflecting development stages in community response, and includes items reflecting com- munity roles concerned with the aggregation and analysis of community level data and mobilization of persons for community projects. 270 Local Decentralization and The Theory of Optimal Government Jerome Rothenberg Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1969 48 pp COM-74-11216 This study examines the problems of cities that are traceable to the nature and organization of local govern- ments. As in any group decision-making entity, struc- tural imperfections in government can lead to ineffici- ent resource allocations. The paper concentrates on the welfare evaluation of local government in a typical metro- politan area with major stress on influences that effect decision-making of (1) population migration into the metropolitan area from outside, (2) suburbanization of a given metropolitan area population, and (3) the fragmenta- tion of local government in the metropolitan area into various non-hierarchical jurisdictions. The findings suggest that the pattern of local govern- ment in modern decentralized urban areas leads to sub- optimal resources use in the public sector, and helps thereby to contribute to the severity of problems more popularly blamed on other phenomena. 271 Community Power Structures and Methods Artifacts: A Reinterpretation Lauren H. Seiler, (Queens College) University of Wisconsin January 1973 8 pp COM-74-10565 This paper reconsiders the hypothesis that the reputa- tional method identifies pyramidal community power structures and the decisional method non-pyramidal power structures. Using three previously published data sets, the analysis suggests that the reputational method 272 Making Federalism Work— A Study of Program Coordination at the Community Level James L. Sundquist and David W. Davis The Brookings Institution February 1969 339 pp COM-74-11444 This study examines the problems of coordination ex- perienced by regional, State and local commenity agen- cies in their efforts to cooperate in the implementation of several Federal programs legislated during the 1960's for the purpose of assisting community economic plan- ning and development. This review which was sponsored by the National Public Advisory Committee on Regional Economic Development, was initiated to provide a factual basis for introducing or incorporating legislative require- ments in Federal programs that would tend to assure that local governments could realize the fullest possible measure of benefit from the Federal economic planning grant-in-aid programs. The information base is developed by extensive interrogation of public officials. The review examines programs for rural areas, urban areas, model cities, multi-county and multi-state regions, as well as the programs operated by States themselves. It concludes with a series of recommendations on organizational re- quirements to achieve maximum lateral and verbal co- ordination at all levels of government. PLANNING, EDA PROGRAMS 273 The Industrialization of Southern Rural Areas: A Study of Industry and Federal Assistance in Small Towns with Recommendations for Future Policy Abt Associates Incorporated December 1, 1969 148 pp PB-185877 This study resulted from a need for EDA to obtain empirical information which would provide guidance in the allocation of Federal assistance to rural areas. The study provides a general evaluation of the industrializa- tion process in rural areas, based largely upon intensive field studies of a set of small Southern towns and cities. The results of the inquiry are presented in six sections which are entitled: Growth Center Characteristics Possessed By Small Towns Problems Noted Regarding The Distribution of Growth Benefits To Disadvantaged Groups Public Service Provision Subsidization of Growth Centers EDA Goals, Growth Centers, And Small Towns Program And Policy Recommendations 54 274 Area Employment Prediction to Determine Public Facilities Requirements Charles River Associates November 1967 374 pp PB178652 This report presents the results of a study to provide EDA with tools for making effective decisions in support- ing local public facilities projects. The empirical and theoretical considerations that lead to the final project design, which focuses on identifying the factors that cause changes in the extent and structure of an area's industry, are described. A review of prior techniques for industrial location forecasting is followed by a detailed presentation of the model developed to analyze industrial location, and the means for dealing with industries that don't fit the general pattern. The data availability and statistical methodologies adopted for setting up the model and rea- sons for their selection are explained. The final chapter provides a decription of the projec- tion equations that have been estimated along with a discussion of the interpretation of projections made using these equations. 275 Planning in Essex: An Analysis of the Current EDA Approach to Planning in Rural Areas, and Some Suggestions for Reform Stephen Cohen Brandeis University April 1970 24 pp COM-73-11990/1 This study focuses on Essex County which is part of the Eastern Adirondack Economic Development District. The author contends that most rural planning efforts exhibit a sameness in their essential characteristics which is apparent in the contents and form of the planning documents. The author also presents some suggestions for reform of the current EDA approach to planning in rural areas. 276 Depressed Areas In The Context of Regional and Metropolitan Growth David Denoon Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 32 May 1968 48 pp w/ footnotes Following a brief discussion of the various economic trends that have led to economic malaise in various re- gions of the country, the writer states, as the central hypothesis of this paper, that suburbs and cities near major metropolises will grow faster than will more iso- lated places when they are competing in consumer ori- ented and service industries. To establish this hypothesis, he analyzes the economic experiences over the past 15 years of four Pennsylvania counties: Lackawanna and Luzerne, Blair and Delaware. In brief, he concludes that, because of superior locations, the Lackawanna-Luzerne and Delaware areas have excellent long run growth potential. Because of its isolation from the Northeast urban corridor, Blair County does not have the same potential. 277 Project Evaluation— Project Scoring for the Economic Development Administration Allen R. Ferguson, Kenneth L. Deavers and Norman H. Jones Jr. Planning Research Corporation November 1966 42 pp PB-179046 This study concentrates on the project decision as a determinant of EDA outputs, and on the role of project evaluation and project scoring (or ranking) as inputs to the EDA decision-maker. It identifies three issues that seemed to be important in project scoring: efficiency, equity, and administrative discretion. The efficiency concern in project scoring has been dealt with in the cost/ benefit framework of the economist. For EDA, this framework is modified slightly so as to recog- nize the normative judgement of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965 in favor of changing the area and personal distribution of future economic growth. Analytic problems that are discussed include com- plete measurement of benefits, discounting, and uncertain- ty. A decision-tree is suggested as a useful device to present the decision-maker with the elements of project uncertainty and the expected values of the choice open to him. There is an attempt to provide the analyst with a rather full description of the concepts and problems of project costing. It emphasizes the use of incremental cost to measure "total cost impact" rather than total cost per se. The equity problems of project scoring are discussed and several possible measures of income and employment consequences are suggested. The project score as formu- lated here depends on the project benefits and costs, measures of the personal distribution of these benefits and costs, and measures or area need. The data require- ments of project scoring are briefly noted. 278 A Research Framework for the Economic Development Administration Allen R. Ferguson, et al Planning Research Corporation October 1966 53 pp COM-74-10309 This study is designed to provide assistance to EDA in structuring its regional development research program, identifying research topics, and establishing priorities among them. The research framework presented, in con- trast with several alternatives that were considered in the preparation of this report., focuses attention on problems central to the implementation of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965, and in suggesting the relationship of such problems to EDA operations. The introduction discusses the rationale for and limita- tions of a research program in an operational agency. Part two is a general discussion of regional development problems in relation to EDA policy. Part three describes 55 EDA as a production process. The final section assesses a variety of research topics and suggests bases for setting priorities. 279 Project Evaluation for EDA G. S. Fishman and D. A. Fitchett The RAND Corporation April 1966 21 PP PB-178884 This memorandum deals with the question of how to select among competing projects for an area, once some indication of its potential economic viability is estab- lished, and assuming some control on possible ad- verse consequences upon other areas. The study presents a model that uses available data for evaluating the discounted streams of project costs and benefits, with benefits measured primarily in terms of income generated in the designated area. The main con- tribution of the model is as an aid to EDA in allocating resources among requests for financing received from areas eligible for assistance. Several alternatives are suggested for a preselection ordering of the projects on the basis of the information revealed by applying the model. 280 Economic Viability and Regional Development Sidney S. Handel The RAND Corporation April 1966 20 pp PB-178882 This is one of a series of four studies concerned with questions of operational and policy relevance confronting the EDA. This memorandum addresses questions of the justifica- tion for public interest in regional economic develop- ment and presents a taxonomy for classification of sub- national economies in terms of stage of development and growth potential. This scheme can be used to identify underdeveloped but viable economies in which publicly financed develop- ment programs have the greatest prospects for success from both the local and national points of view. The study goes on to examine possible explanations for the various characterizations of economies and thus to suggest pro- grams designed to promote growth in those that are under- developed but viable, and adjustment for those that are non-viable. 281 Projects Benefits— Project Scoring for the Economic Development Administration Norman H. Jones Jr., et al Planning Research Corporation February 1967 52 pp PB-179045 This is the second of two PRC studies for EDA dealing with the project selection decision process. The first paper, focusing on the project selection decision, presents sug- gestions and descriptions of procedures whereby costs and benefits of projects can be consistently assessed. This paper, which again focuses on the project selec- tion decision, suggests a modeling technique whereby estimates of benefits of EDA-financial activities may be derived. The project scoring problem is discussed once more and some- aspects of project interdependencies and uncertainties with regard to outcome are examined. 282 Identification of Economically Distressed Areas James C. Knowles and Donald E. Yett University of Southern California August 1973 76 pp COM-73-12019 This project explores the feasibility of utilizing the best combination of annually available local area economic series to make indirect annual classifications of local areas according to criteria of high or low income and unemployment. The Economic Development Administra- tion has difficulty in obtaining reliable, up to date infor- mation to use in determining the eligibility of local areas to receive aid under the Public Works and Economic Devel- opment Act of 1965 as amended. Its goal, therefore, is to improve the accuracy of the classifications made according to statutory criteria by use of annual data. Methodologically, the study utilized three statistical techniques: (1) regression analysis (2) discriminant analy- sis and (3) factor analysis. The research was carried out in two phases: the initial phase involved a pilot study limited to the 159 counties in Georgia; the second phase involved the full set of U.S. counties. The Georgia pilot study involved statistical analysis of 296 variables which are thought to be related to income or unemployment. A derived average unemployment rate series was de- veloped for the year 1969 and evaluated against other series. The results of these evaluation experiments appear to be quite encouraging. When used in place of Census unemployment in the analysis (as a dependent variable in regression analysis or as a basis for classifying an estimation sample in discriminant analysis), the results were dramatically improved. The techniques developed in the Georgia study were used in classifying local areas in all States on the basis of high and low w/iemployment and income. The research- ers are encouraged in their findings and suggest that highly reliable indirect classifications can be made for the vast majority of U S. counties. Additional work is suggested for refining, improving, and testing this technique before reaching an operational status. 283 The Separation of Structural From Cyclical Unemployment Edward Miller Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 22 September 1967 28 pp COM-74-10295 Citing examples of the market reduction by 1966 in unemployment rates of certain major urban areas that were designated as areas of substantial and persistent un- employment at the beginning of the ARA in 1961, the author sets up an investigation to regress local unemploy- 56 merit rates in the national rate, time and with a view to demonstrating the distinction between local areas where unemployment rates are a reflection of waves in the national cycle and those that are a function of the structure or composition of the local industrial complex. Regressions are developed for the 50 States using in- sured unemployment figures from 1948 to 1965. Regres- sions for cities are developed using the monthly or bi- monthly data developed for the period 1950 to 1967 by the Bureau of Employment Security. Analysis of their data de- monstrate the marked difference among localities in the sensitivity to national economic trends. The paper con- cludes with a discussion of the policy implications in organizing Federal programs to cope effectively with areas with structural problems as opposed to areas that are responsive to national unemployment trends. 284 Examination and Redefinition of EDA Districts Dann Milne University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper Noi 1 December 1969 10 pp COM-73-12023 This paper discusses EDA's policies for defining eco- nomic development districts and the practices followed in designating growth centers. Variables that are used to establish economic cohesiveness as the central concept for delineating districts are identified and several illustra- tions are cited where neither the district boundaries nor the designated growth centers meet the guidelines that the agency has established. 285 Defining Distressed Areas T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University February 1973 43 pp w/appendices COM-74-10282 This paper is concerned with one aspect of distress: un- employment as measured by unemployment rates for local labor market areas. After a general discussion of a ration- ale for programs of area assistance and the current mea- sures of distress, the particular significance and problems of unemployment rates are developed. The unemployment rate of each area is explained by the national rate and local parameters. The local parameters are then examined in a cross-sectional analysis. The conclusions that are most significant for policy purposes are contained in the final section, where the consequences of alternative de- finitions of area distress are examined. In this paper, the author argues that professionals are not well versed in their fields. In fact, they can be completely ignorant of their field outside of their own specialized area. The author's point, in brief, is that especially in the hard social sciences but also in the soft ones, there has begun to develop a meta-disciplinary competence that rests in particular individuals, and that this provides a better model for the incorporation of the social sciences into the planning process than does the idea of an inter-disciplinary team. The key difference is that mem- bers of a meta-discipline share common ground, while members of an inter-disciplinary team are brought to- gether because of their diversity. If the author's basic point is granted, the urgent need is to develop means of producing greater numbers of individuals with such competence to meet the demands of the work that must be done, and to do everything possible to advance these meta-disciplines. 287 Alternative Organization Models for District Development Pierre Clavel, Harold Capener, Barclay Jones Cornell University June 30, 1969 76 pp COM-74-11205 The focus of this paper is on Economic Development Districts, the constraints under which they operate, and existing and possible organizational forms and strategies. It also reports on multi-county organizations sponsored by various other agencies: Local Development Districts of the Appalachian Regional Commission; Regional Plan- ning agencies, usually sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development; Rural Conservation and Development Agencies of the Department of Agriculture; and multi-county Community Action Agencies of the Office of Economic Opportunity. The results of activities of eight teams are summarized in this paper. There is a heavy emphasis on case studies and intensive field investiga- tions of particular areas in which multi-county organiza- tions have been initiated or attempted. Six areas in the Southern and Northeastern United States receive inten- sive treatment. In addition, the report draws on informa- tion collected through interviews in a number of other areas covered by Economic Development Districts. 288 Designing Organizational Machinery for Regional Development Pierre Clavel Cornell University October 1967 10 pp COM-74-10781 PLANNING, ORGANIZATION 286 Beyond the Inter-Disciplinary Approach to Planning William Alonso University of California, Berkeley November 1968 20 pp COM-73-11721 This paper is an introduction to a Cornell-Penn State research project set up to provide descriptive informa- tion on and designs for alternative types of organizational machinery for promoting development in multi-county districts. A potential problem is that two general descrip- tions of regions may emerge: a relatively "modern" region, where most of the sociological and administrative condi- tions for development exist, but where unemployment is high; and a "primitive" one, where these conditions do not exist. Different concepts and hypotheses are presented on how the transition from a primitive to a modern region 57 occurs, with emphasis given to structural differentiation, centrality, and linkage roles. 289 Dimensions of Variation in Development Agency Operations Pierre Clavel Cornell University March 1968 14 pp COM-73-11998/4 This is a preliminary working paper intended to set forth (1) some variations in regional characteristics and their implications for design and evaluation of develop- ment agencies within these districts; (2) some preliminary findings concerning variations among development agency operations; (3) some suggestions as to patterns of as- sociation or concomitance among these variations; and (4) some approaches toward criteria for selection among agency operating patterns. This final section amounts to a review of theoretical positions from which agency evaluation and design may proceed. Part (1) is presented only in skeletal form since it is treated in more detail elsewhere. In addition, related papers are in preparation which will supplement parts (2) and (4). This discussion is part of a larger study concerned with the design of organizational models for multi-county regions. 290 Regional Variation and Development Agency Design Pierre Clavel Cornell University March 1968 13 pp COM-74-10229 This is a brief introduction to the work in process or planned in the major task of the Comell-Penn State Regional Organization Study. It provides a frame and complements work going on in the other tasks. First, the author noted that the universe with which we must be concerned includes not only variations in development agency structure and operations, but also the social environments (regions) in which they operate. Second, he described variations in development agencies that have been observed and expected, with some interesting differences some of the Complementary Tasks are observ- ing; and he presented plans for supplementing these ob- servations. Third, he presented an approach to the defini- tion and measurement of regional development— the de- pendent variable upon which we are interested in observ- ing the effects of agency operations. Fourth, he indicated a causal theory of development, the main notions of which may have implications for the development agency role in promoting development. Finally, he sketched some im- plications, drawn from the development concept and the theory, for the design of development agencies. 291 Economic Structure, Development Strategies, and Organizational implications Richard B. Dymsza, David W. Sears and David J. Allee Cornell University December 1968 80 pp w/appendix COM-74-11190 This report traces through some general concepts of economic development and attempts to bring these concepts to bear on the problems of designing organi- zational models for the development of economically declining districts. As an economic input into a proj- ect with a focus on organizational design, the authors have attempted to outline some of the major economic considerations they feel should be reflected in the design of development organizations. The authors have undertaken a multivariate factor analysis of industrial composition and economic develop- ment data collected by the major task force of the pro- ject. In this analysis, they have focused mainly on low income counties, which are of primary concern to EDA. 292 Interlocal Cooperation Among Rural Units of Government James R. Finley Cornell University December 1967 20 pp COM-73-11992/7 This paper is an empirically based, though at times abstract, sociological analysis of the problems faced by units of local government as they engage in interlocal cooperation. The county government is the unit of focus. The paper relates problems being faced in rural America; gives a brief historical perspective of the county as a governmental unit; relates sociological model and analy- sis; and finally policy considerations are offered which would help county units become externally oriented to the environment (and to goal attainment activities). This paper departs from the general criticism of local govern- ment which takes the view that a complete reorganization is in order. Although the view which begins with the as- sumption of reorganization might be correct, it is felt to be a Utopian proposal for the short run. A viable alter- native (to complete reorganization) is offered, which it is felt, would (1) bring some order (out of chaos) for the short run and (2) increase the possibility of reorganization for the long run. As an alternative to complete reorgani- zation rearrangements of priorities of local county govern- ment from internal to external primacy must be accom- plished. Recommendations for achieving this are listed. 293 Interorganizational Relations: Concepts and Methodological Considerations James R. Finley and Harold R. Capener Cornell University August 1967 23 pp COM-73-11993/5 The intent of this paper is to examine (1) situations where organizational decision-making autonomy may be enhanced through relations with the environment; (2) an emerging structural arrangement of interrorganizational relations (IOR); (3) the relevance, over time, of processual and structural elements in the study of the relations be- tween organizations; and (4) some methodological con- siderations in the empirical study of IOR. 58 294 Power and Involvement in IOR (Interorganizational Relation) James R. Finley Cornell University 1965 7 pp COM-74-10623 Following a definition of what is meant by power and its application within a multi-organization framework, the author discusses the various conditions needed for its exercise under three headings: alternatives to compliance, conditions of social independence, and strategies to retain and sustain power. This is followed by a discussion of the meaning of these features in terms of the social structures and institutions involved. The paper concludes with an illustration and prediction of how multi-county develop- ment organizations (MDCO's) will perform in view of the potential conflict that may exist between their objectives and those of their member organizations. 295 The Intercommunity Simulation: An Experiment in Simulation-Gaming Robert F. Goodman University of California, Los Angeles 1968 235 pp COM-74-10656 Simulation-gaming has found increasing application as a social science research and training device. As its name indicates, the technique incorporates two elements. First, the appearance or operating principles of some "real world" are reproduced in an operating analogue. Second, unlike computer simulations, people are asked to play a game for the purpose of teaching them something about the "real world" being simulated and/or to enable re- searchers to study selected aspects of the "real world" in a controlled setting. The original purpose of this study was to investigate decision-making processes directly relevant to EDA Eco- nomic Development Districts and to do so within a bar- gaining frame of reference. The authors attempted to produce bargaining conflicts in the laboratory relevant to bargaining conflicts in actual districts. This report in- cludes a description of the game and the operation of the experiment, and summaries of the findings. 296 Organization for Development— The MIONY Experience: 1966-68 Alan J. Hahn Cornell University Regional Development Study No. 6 1969 47 pp COM-73-11994/3 The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to development and planning in an urbanized and growing region. The paper is divided into three main parts. The first is a description of the region, including its highly complex decision-making structure. The second part de- scribes the responses of three regional agencies — an economic development association, a regional planning board, and an adult education project concerned with community development. In the final portion, the MIDNY project is described and analyzed. "MIDNY" is an acronym for "Mid-New York". 297 The "Perfect" Regional Adjustment Mechanism: A Reappraisal Charles W. Hultman University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 31 1970 16 pp & footnotes COM-74-11218 The purpose of this study is to explore more fully the questions raised by two writers, Henry Richardson and Richard Cooper, on the efficacy of the regional mechanism in restoring regional balance of payments. Rather than concluding that regional payments adjust- ments are more or less painful, smooth, or perfect, it may be appropriate to consider the regional adjustment process in terms of the three possible changes. If the three changes at the interregional level are compared with those at the international level, certain observations seem apparent. The first is that because of the nature of institutional arrangements and political systems, tem- porary financing operates most effectively at the regional level. This partially explains why regional adjustment is frequently assumed to be "painless". Second, certain types of compensatory corrections— Treasury transfers and possibly even emigrant remittances— are of greater im- portance interregionally than internationally. Further, com- pensatory corrections could probably be employed with greater imagination at the regional level (for example, tax incentives for firms which invest in low-income, high unemployment regions). Finally, one type of real adjust- ment—labor movements— is genera Hy more operative at the regional than at the national level. Exchange rate movements, however, are not applicable to regional ad- justment. 298 Organizational Innovation— Case Study in Planning and Development Samuel M. Leadley, (Pennsylvania State University) Cornell University Regional Development Study No. 8 1969 47 pp COM-74-10676 This research, part of a larger study of alternative forms of multi-county organization, attempted to identify the conditions under which a five-county region adopted a new organizational form, the Regional Development Asso- ciation and the Regional Planning Commission. Three specific tasks assumed were: (1) to establish the sequence of events that culminated in the formation of the new regional organizations, (2) from these events, to isolate the socially significant factors that influenced the rate of adoption of the new regional structure, and (3) to order these factors in terms of their relative importance for this adoption process. The end product of this analysis is the statement of a strategy to increase the adoption rate of the regional form of organization for planning and development. Finally, developmental histories of four regional organizations form an appendix. 59 299 301 Organizational Innovation for Development in Multi-County Regions Samuel M. Leadley, (Pennsylvania State University) Cornell University September 1968 15 pp COM-74-10654 The goal of this research was to describe factors that influence the rate of adoption of a new form of organiza- tion for development in a multi-county region. The re- search was carried out in a five-county rural region in northern Pennsylvania in 1967-1968. The analysis indicated one factor of overriding impor- tance in holding back the rate of acceptance of the regional form of organization. It was the uncertainty of the adoption of this regional form of organization for develop- ment on the autonomy of local organizations. Two factors acting to increase the rate of adoption of the new form of organization were (1) the pressure from State and Federal agencies on local organizations to pro- vide services and (2) the inadequacy of local resources for providing these services. These two favorable forces were reinforced by educational programs and the success of this region's first two attempts at regional organization for development. v These findings combined with prior knowledge of organi- zational structure and process, led to the presentation of a model for increasing the rate of adoption of the multi-county form of organization for planning and development in regions similar to the one under study. An Analysis of the Relationship between Structural Characteristics of Districts and the Role of Economic Development District Organizations in Promoting Social and Economic Development Mary M. Viola Cornell University 1967 7 pp COM-74-10620 This study attempts to analyze the actual accomplish- ments of Economic Development District agencies in pro- moting social and economic development and to relate these accomplishments to structural characteristics of the Districts themselves. The pertinent question arises at this point as to how EDD "accomplishments" are to be measured and analyzed given the relatively short history of most EDD's. Research procedures are discussed: (1) the scale of differentiation and (2) the analysis of proposed projects. It is believed that the implications for this study for the EDA program are great— but require future research to establish their full import. The problem is selection of projects at the county's level — not above or below its level of differentiation. 302 The Organization of Multi-County Economic Development Programs Robert Warren, (University of Washington) University of California, Los Angeles September 1968 136 pp COM-74-11235 300 A Study of the Local Economic Development Process Part I: Conceptual Framework and Measures of Attributes Arthur Silvers, Leslie Boudrot, Anna Sofaer CONSAD Research Corporation June 1968 32 pp The purpose of the study is to assist the Economic Development Administration: (1) identify the nature and extent of local effort, (2) gather and examine evidence showing under what circumstances one pattern of effort may be expected to be more fruitful than another, and (3) develop a more sophisticated set of guidelines for evaluating the local economic development process in various cultural and economic environments and identify appropriate aspects of local effort that should be im- proved. This paper presents the conceptual framework upon which the study is based, and the measures that have been developed for analyzing the local economic develop- ment process. In-depth field interviews will reveal more intuitive findings of evidence of important factors and re- lationships in the development process. This paper is concerned with the relationship between the scale, the internal characteristics, and the external environment of subnational organizations and Federal program goals. Economic Development Districts (EDD's) serve as the focus of the inquiry. Certain assumptions are made about the design of nationally desired subna- tional agencies. It is not unusual for an agency to be charged with coordination, planning, and development re- sponsibilities without being delegated the requisite authority or resources to perform these functions. It is the thesis of this paper that to a large extent EDD's are in this position. The paper seeks to explore the political and administrative attributes of multi-county districts as variables which can further or hinder the goal of economic development. Four sections consider the districts in terms of: their boundary conditions; representation and influ- ence in policy formation; long-range development; and coordination of local, State, and Federal programs. Pro- posals are made for certain modifications in the structure and role of districts. PLANNING, REGIONAL 303 Alaska— Japan Economic Relations Institute of Social, Economic and Government Research University of Alaska January 1968 220 pp plus Appendices PB-179467 60 The purpose of the study is to examine the export potential of Alaska with respect to Japan. The emphasis is on the potential demand for Alaskan commodities in Japan, rather than the problems of supply, production, costs, etc., for the export industries of Alaska. The examination is both quantitative and qualitative. Quantitatively, the study focuses on estimating the volume and price dimensions of Alaskan exports to Japan during the next 10 to 20 years. Qualitatively, it includes information obtained from a survey of the avail- able published literature, as well as interviews with repre- sentatives of private firms, trade associations, and govern- ment agencies in Alaska, Japan, Seattle, Vancouver, and Washington, D.C. The recommendations proposed by the study do not call for huge public expenditures or subsidies and are pre- sented in such a fashion that they could be implemented immediately. 304 Aspects of Regional Planning and Theory in the United States William Alonso University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 87 October 1968 27 pp COM-74-11215 This paper deals with some aspects of national regional planning in the United States. The author deals primarily with issues which are regional, such as distressed areas and urbanization. He tries to show that territorial planning is intrinsic in the very process of American government, contrary to the image that the United States does not engage in national planning. The last pages deal with recent theoretical and technical developments and their interplay with the realities of application. This study is an impressionistic personal synthesis. 305 Urban and Regional Imbalances in Economic Development William Alonso University of California, Berkeley Reprint Volume 42 1971 11 PP COM-74-11381 This paper presents various arguments that urbanization and regional policies often converge and complement each other. The former tries to steer development away from over-urbanized regions, and the latter tries to at- tract and promote development in backward regions. This paper endeavors to show that these complementary poli- cies may often be detrimental to economic growth. 306 American County Government: A Bibliographical Commentary John C. Bollens University of California, Los Angeles June 1969 391 pp This commentary describes and analyzes in text form the contents of a large number of books, monographs, ar- ticles, and public documents. Unusual among bibliogra- phies, it is a full discussion of materials and not simply listings of brief annotations. It is designed to serve two chief purposes: to inform persons interested in county gov- ernment about the degree of usefulness of particular pub- lications for their purposes and to show researchers blocks upon which they can build and gaps that need to be closed. The focus is on materials published since 1945, although certain previously issued works are included that continue to be valuable or have not been superseded. All the items are nationwide or statewide in scope. It would have been impossible within the limits of this publication to consid- er studies of individual counties; however, when a general study mentions them note usually has been made of this fact. In cases where items about counties in specific States are plentiful, which is the definite exception rather than the general rule, the procedure has been to stress variety and not to duplicate comparable publications. The commentary is organized under seven major head- ings (general finance, intergovernmental relations organi- zation, politics, reform, and services), all of which have subdivisions, followed by an alphabetical arrangement by States and authors within them. 307 The American County: An Inquiry into its Political Vitality John C. Bollens University of California, Los Angeles June 1968 77 pp COM-73-11685 The author develops an index for measuring the poli- tical vitality of county governments, using a variety rf variables: magnitude of activities; volume of intergovern- mental linkages; changes in organization and processes; adequacy of public accountability; extent of voting and competition in elections; numerous demographic, eco- nomic, and social variables; and government variables such as use of county homerule, financial capability, plan- ning and zoning, and others. For each set of variables he presents an analysis and selected findings. These com- ponents reveal information on the ability of a govern- mental unit to decide upon and carry out goals — that is, to make policies and administer them within a broadly representative democratic framework. 308 Computer Simulation for Regional Economic Planning Kong Chu and William Schaffer Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 15 June 1968 15 pp Published in The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. II Nov 1968, pp 30-40 COM-74-10762 This paper examines possible applications of the com- puter in regional economic planning. It discusses the ad- vantages of computer simulation, the foundation of the simulation program with special emphasis on the eco- nomic theory approach, and the difficulties involved in simulations. The foundation of simulation programming is 61 contained in the methods of approach, namely: (1) em- pirical and (2) theoretical. The empirical method uses empirical observations and knowledge of the regional structure to build a set of a priori from which probability distributions and interactions may be derived. The theore- tical method is based on economic theories. These theories are used to construct a model showing the in- terdependencies of certain economic variables and para- meters. The result is a set of simultaneous equations. This set of equations may be solved for the desired vari- ables easily on a computer. The model builder must be able to translate economy theory into a language that his programmer can assimilate. The simulation requires that parameter values be accurate and that during tests of the simulation that they obey the principles of random- ness and replicability. 309 A Program-Budgeting Procedure for Regional Planning Kong Chu and William A. Schaffer Georgia Institute of Technology February 1969 13 pp COM-74-11446 With the rise of regional science as a discipline and the development of new data-handling and program techni- ques we have been able to effectively inject economic considerations into planning processes. This paper out- lines a three stage program-budgeting procedure suitable to determine public policy in a metropolitan region di- vided into identifiable subareas: (1) review the role of economic planning in regional growth and establish the concept in which must function the various budgeting systems available to accomplish regional economic ob- jectives; (2) submit a program-budgeting procedure de- signed around economic tools but focusing on problems of planners; and (3) comment on some of the practical problems associated with implementing such procedures. 310 The Politics of Planning: The Case of Non-Metropolitan Regions Pierre Clavel Cornell University Regional Development Study No. 2 1969 40 pp COM-7410019 This study is concerned with planning in the predomin- antly rural regions of the United States, those outside the larger metropolitan areas, including small and medium sized cities, but generally no SMSAs. The author elaborates first on the argument that the "traditional" rural and small city social system is being transformed by the penetration of bureaucratic produc- tion organizations and Federal and State agencies, re- sulting in increased heterogeneity of rural populations. Second, as a result of these organizations and the result- ing cleavages in social structure, serious obstacles to pluralist bargaining or other forms of competition exist. Third, in this situation the impact of public planning may turn out to be so bureaucratically oriented that it merely reinforces the existing tendencies blocking the develop- ment of pluralism. Finally, some suggestions as to how we might begin to avoid these shifts. 311 State Development Strategies Proceedings of a seminar co-sponsored by the Council of State Planning Agencies and the American Institute of Planners, State Planning Committee, Portland, Oregon. August 13-14 1966 116 pp PB-176703 The purpose of the seminar was to examine the method and art of planning. Representatives from Federal and State governments participated as well as planners, acad- emicians, and others. The areas of discussion included: The Art of State Development Planning State Strategies and Federal Development Efforts State Planning Experiences in Structuring Strategies State Strategies and Interstate Development What the Governor Needs to Make Strategy Decisions 312 Dualism and Growth Potential Richard E. Gift University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 20 October 1969 18 pp COM-73-12010 In the Journal of Political Economy (LXIV, December 1966) J. R. Moroney and J. M. Walker reported some findings on the capital-intensity of industry in the South- eastern United States which, as they pointed out, are not entirely in keeping with the expectations one would have on the basis of reasoning from the well-known Heckscher- Ohlin theory of geographic specialization. According to the theory, a region's industrial activity will tend to be con- centrated in those lines which make intensive use of the region's relatively abundant factors of production. It is important in planning industrial development for a region regarded as underdeveloped to study the degree of dualism which exists in its economic and social organi- zation. To the degree that the dual-economy model is found to be applicable, it has a special bearing upon the choice between capital-intensive and labor-intensive de- velopment. This is because dualism is itself a source of stagnation and discontent. A conclusion which seems to be supported by a review of this pattern is that certain Southern areas exhibit dualistic elements and that these structural factors go a long way toward explaining lingering economic stag- nation. 313 The International Boundary Between the United States and Mexico: Its Influence on Some Problems of Economic Development and on Development of Economic Policy for Adjacent U.S. Regions William C. Gruben University of Texas at Austin 1969 16 pp COM-73-11967/9 The U.S.-Mexico border regions like other poor U.S. regions far from international boundaries suffer common 62 problem characteristics such as: (1) declining job avail- ability and (2) poor quality educations. However, unlike these poor U.S. regions, the U.S.-Mexico border faces a unique series of problems in regional development. The source of almost all of the unique problems lie partially or wholly on their location. It is the purpose of this paper to consider how their location can give border areas unique problems such as: migration, transportation difficulties, qualitative restric- tions, law vs law enforcement, different economic levels, etc. The author particularly concerns himself with those economic, political, and legal structures which create an instability that impedes both economic development and planning. This paper gives a broad overview of the prob- lems which also demand detailed study. 314 Recent Developments in French Regional Planning and their Significance for American Regional Policy Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky February 1969 21 pp plus footnotes COM-74-10029 Improvement of the Federal assistance programs to create more equal economic opportunity in the U.S. re- quires more than piecemeal decentralization; the distri- bution of functions, funds, and administrative authority needs to be altered to give consistency and coherence while giving the State and local governments a chance to carry out the war on poverty on a manageable scale. One approach to this situation in the area of regional policy can be learned from foreign experience. The most comprehensive national system of regional planning is that which has evolved in France during the past two dec- ades, and particularly during the Fourth and Fifth Plans. After briefly considering the principal institutions and poli- cies of French regional planning, this paper analyzes the major problems that have been encountered during the evo- lution of the Fifth Plan. In addition, it examines a number of the solutions that have been proposed for dealing with these problems. Finally, the significance of French experi- ence for American regional policy is examined, with par- ticular attention to the potential opportunities of a re- gional commission approach. 315 Urban Alternatives to Rural Poverty Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 10 April 1969 33 pp COM-74-10774 316 Coordination of Federal Programs in Regional Planning Bruce W. Macy and Clyde D. Hartz Midwest Research Institute September 1966 159 pp PB 177498 The Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965, as amended, provides for the establishment of Re- gional Economic Development Commissions whose objec- tive is to foster economic development in eligible multi- state regions. To achieve this objective requires that the development efforts in the region of all levels of govern- ment — local, State, and Federal — be effectively co- ordinated. The study examines the subject of coordination from an operational point of view, including the barriers to effective coordination. An important aspect of the study is the identification of methods of coordination for use by the Commissions which would simplify the coordination process. The authors conclude that to achieve meaningful co- ordination the Commissions must draw the appropriate agencies into their planning and action programs at an early stage, and the mechanism for accomplishing this could be interagency committees. In addition, the authors recommend the use of public advisory committees, tech- nical advisory subcommittees, and functional work groups, along with several other mechanisms. 317 Factors Affecting State Differences in Unemployment 1950-1968 Masanori Hashimoto National Bureau of Economic Research October 1971 193 pp The strategy of this study is first to decompose State differences in unemployment into cyclical, level trend and seasonal components, and then to relate the State differences in these components to a set of variables selected largely on the basis of economic theory. The set of variables examined throughout this study can be broadly classified as the industrial composition of em- ployment, the demographic composition of labor force, in- come and economic growth, the skill level of the labor force and two institutional factors, minimum wages and unionization. Because of limitations of data, technique of decomposition and selection of variables, residual vari- ances in regressions of these components on the selected variables are clearly overestimates of regional differences attributable to costs of mobility and information. It is hoped, however, that this study will result in suggestive findings that are useful for future studies of unemploy- ment and for formulating policies to deal with regional unemployment. This paper examines the inter-relationships among the lagging rural areas, large metropolitan areas, and inter- mediate cities, and suggests policy measures that might be applied by responsible decision makers. Manpower and human resource development programs, infrastructure in- vestment in the narrow sense (roads, industrial sites, etc.), and labor mobility programs are considered. 318 Critical and Primary Location Factors In Growth Industries Jacknin and Company Inc. September 1969 68 pp COM-73-11731 63 To expand its planning service assistance to depressed areas, EDA had designed several demonstration projects to help in developing criteria and an operational capability for identifying location requirements of several industries where growth has occurred and which may be attracted by the resources of the lagging areas. In this report the researchers examine two industries: (1) wood household furniture, not upholstered, and (2) semiconductors. The analysis of each industry covers the following subject areas: the principal products, growth characteristics, technological trends and investment and cost characteristics. In addition, the industry market loca- tion and input requirements such as raw materials, labor supply and costs, transportation needs are discuss- ed as well as the utility, building and site requirements and community attributes which are most preferred. Lists of appropriate industry associations, periodicals and references are provided in an appendix together with names of the leading companies in the industry. 319 Regional Development Planning Papers Presented at a Conference Sponsored by Cornell University and University of Puerto Rico March 29-31 1967 Barclay G. Jones, Editor October 1971 297 pp COM-74-11229 The object of the conference was to bring together several traditions of regional planning for the purpose of giving shape and direction to the emerging training pro- grams. Specifically, the trends that were considered were the regional planning approach that emerged in the prosperity of the 1920's; the approach which developed in the depression of the 1930's and was carried through the war period of the 1940's; the transitional directions that took shape in the 1950's; development planning for the less-developed nations that had emerged since World War II; and the new directions in regional economic de- velopment planning that occurred in this country in the 1960's. Papers and their authors are as follows: Key Features of Regional Planning Harvey S. Perloff Regional Development Planning Policy Donald J. Robertson Regional Economic Development Planning: Some Reconsiderations Charles M. Tiebout and Fredrick A. Hirsch Environmental Quality and Health Considerations in Regional Planning Albert P. Talboys Mobilizing Private Savings for Regional Investment Gustav Ranis Population Policy, Welfare, and Regional Development Ira S. Lowry Information Systems in Regional Development Planning Harry M. Markowitz The Interrelationship Between Political Forces and Regional Planning Alvin Mayne Research and Education for Regional Development and Planning Benjamin Chinitz A Framework for Planning Education Barclay G. Jones 320 A Subregional Economic Analysis of Alaska Douglas N. Jones The Federal Field Committee for Development Planning in Alaska August 1968 374 pp plus Bibliography COM-74-10675 Because of Alaska's great diversity, it is a State with not one economy but many economies. The study, a regional analysis of the State, separates Alaska into five geographic regions each with approximately the same social, demographic, economic, and geographic variables. Because much of the available regional data on Alaska is by election district, the study uses election districts as the foundation for constructing a region. By examining each region and forecasting its probable growth, the study can arrive at some idea of growth for the entire State. The scope of the study is primarily economic, and focuses on per capita personal income, basic economic stability, and economic growth. The goal of the study is to provide all levels of govern- ment with a forecast of the economic future of the subregions of Alaska. Federal and State agencies could then plan their investment projects and operating pro- grams in accordance with the economic futures of the State's subregions. 321 Computer Simulations, Physio-Economic Systems and Intra-Regional Models John F. Kain and John R. Meyer Harvard University December 1967 24 pp COM-74-10758 This paper is a comment on the state of the art and the future thereof. The first section provides a review of the history of computer simulations and the ways in which they have been and could be used to lay the foundation of public policy. Also provided is a specific list of government civilian investment proposals or programs that would benefit from full exploitation of presently available com- puter modeling techniques. The second section is largely a reference list of major classes of urban and regional models. Of those described, an examination of two which have been most fruitful makes up the bulk of the remainder of the paper. These are metropolitan growth models and community renewal programming models. Section three attempts to explain the major deficiencies of growth models in the areas of industry (employment) location and the housing market. Section four provides a summing up of recommenda- tions for improved modeling. A major shift of emphasis is indicated, in that large-scale over-all models not tied to immediate planning deadlines would provide better long-run data. 64 322 Mathematical Models For Regional Planning David Kendrick University of Texas at Austin December 1970 64 pp COM-73-11956/2 This paper provides a discussion of the mathematical methods used in regional economic planning models. Particular attention is given to the relationships between (1) the economic assumptions embodied in the models, (2) the computational methods used to solve the models, and (3) the degree of disaggregation achievable with rea- sonable computational expense. This paper begins with a discussion of the particular characteristics of regional models which distinguish them from economy wide planning models and then includes sections on single period and multi-period models. Both simulation and optimizing models are discussed. 323 Towards An Optimal Economy C. Duncan MacRae Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1970 8 pp COM-74-11236 This paper suggests an approach to the synthesis of an optimal economy for a given region, which is a prob- lem in optimal social control, since although a region is defined spacially it is a social system. In the discussion, the region is represented by a network. Transformation in the economy of the region is represented by a set of production and transportation activities. The problem of allocating actors and commodities over time and space is formulated with the aid of linear activity analysis. Corresponding to the long-run allocation problem is a valuation problem, or dual linear control problem. The imputed prices of the stocks of actors and commodities at the beginning of the period are the dual State vari- ables, and the imputed prices of capacity in the period are the dual control variables. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that along an optimal path the imputed price of a stock measures the effect on net present value of a change in the stock and the stock measures the effect on the imputed cost of actors, commodities, and capacities of a change in the price. maximized in a competitive system. The two parameters are estimated for the United States, Canada, and Japan. The constancy hypothesis is examined for time trends. 325 A Generalized Aggregate Model for Optimal Growth With Some Empirical Tests Koichi Mera Harvard University September 1966 20 pp This study constructs an optimal growth economic model with a two factor (labor and capital) production function that is general enough to simulate real economic systems. The growth model is generalized over previous ones to include technological progress in production and variable marginal utility of consumption. The model is investigated by simulation to determine its convergence to a long-run optimal growth path. Theoretical findings have been com- pared with data from the United States and Japan and the two countries long-run optimal growth paths are also compared. 326 Interregional Welfare Equalization in the Dynamic Perspective Koichi Mera Harvard University August 1967 68 pp COM-74-11232 This paper examines possible conflicts between equity and efficiency by the interregional redistribution of pro- ductive factors (labor or capital) in a dynamic system. The analysis is based upon neo-classical production func- tions. The index of welfare over time is the present value of the welfare stream per capita over time. The analysis is performed for both static and dynamic systems and a single sector growth model is assumed. Both isolated and related regions are analyzed. 327 A Method of Evaluating Alternative Development Programs Koichi Mera Harvard University July 1967 82 pp 324 An Empirical Determination of a Dynamic Utility Function Koichi Mera Harvard University December 1966 23 pp COM-74-11234 This paper discusses the intertemporal optimization condition that follows from a model of optimal growth. This equation usually contains two parameters not direct- ly observable: the discount rate of future utility and the elasticity of marginal utility. These two parameters are empirically estimated assuming that they remain constant over time and that the assumed criterion function is This paper discusses the welfare criteria to be used in evaluating development programs. It relates welfare criteria and democratic principles and their employment in static and dynamic systems. It discusses efficiency and equity in a static system and the derived require- ments for a utility function. Also discussed is the present value of the welfare stream and optimal growth and the growth of welfare over time. 328 A Multi-Region Multi-Sector Model of Equilibrium Growth Koichi Mera Harvard University October 1967 44 pp COM-74-10651 85 The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of a competitive general equilibrium derived for a static multi-sector multi-region system to the intertemporal framework. Primary objectives are to present (1) equilib- rium equations explicitly for a finite time horizon, and (2) a computational algorithm for deriving a numerical solution of the equilibrium. The paper is concluded by a discussion of the relationship of the equilibrium growth path for a finite time horizon with that for an infinite time horizon and of a method of evaluation of the termi- nal stocks of capital. 329 A Study of the Nationwide Regional Econometric Model: Comments and Survey of Model Building for Regional Economies Koichi Mera Harvard University September 1969 29 pp COM-74-10293 The first article discusses the Japanese Government's Nation-Wide Regional Econometric Model. It discusses the population, government investment in transportation and communications, flows of commodities and persons sub- models. It also discusses the model's production function and consistency. The second paper is a survey of economic models that have geographical dimensions. It discusses partial analy- sis versus system analysis, programming versus predictive models, uni-regional versus multi-regional models, and types of methodologies. 330 A Two Region Growth Model With Variable Returns To Scale Koichi Mera Harvard University November 1966 23 pp COM-74-10397 This paper is a study concerning a discounted welfare function over time. Welfare is defined as a function of per capita output which is produced in either of two regions which are characterized by Cobb-Douglas production functions with non-identical degrees of homogeneity. Conditions of optimal growth are derived and the nature of growth is investigated when both production functions have homogeneity of degree less than unity as would be the case when some factors of production are not mobile. 331 Regional and Urban Locational Choices in the Context of Economic Growth John R. Meyer Harvard University November 1966 22 pp COM-74-10791 This paper examines the major trends in locational patterns and their implications for rural and urban plan- ning and economic development policies. After briefly reviewing various locational forces in the historical stages of economic development of the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the author concludes that two fundamental trends prevail today. One is a movement of population toward larger urban agglomerations (urbani- zation), and the other is a downward pressure on the maximum point densities of population and workplaces within these agglomerations (movement to the suburbs). The role of transportation policy tools available to govern- ment for shaping locational choices today is subsequently examined, with the emphasis given to the need for a better integration of highway planning with the develop- ment plans for emerging satellite communities and sub- urban areas. 332 A Keynesian Model of a Regional Economy Harold T. Moody and Frank W. Puffer University of California, Los Angeles March 16, 1967 32 pp This model is based on a set of regional product ac- counts for Southern California for the years 1953-1961. The purpose of this exercise is to appraise the approp- riateness of such a tool in helping to understand the workings of a subnational economy. The model does seem to fit the data and thus provides a set of interrelated statements about the structure of the economy, particu- larly with respect to short-run time paths which are often critical to both private and public decision-makers. The section dealing with the defense "phase-out" sug- gests that, as a large defense cut would probably raise unemployment no more than 3-5%, Southern California is probably not as defense dependent as suggested by cross-sectional analysis. Finally, the model indicates that one source of vari- ation in subnational growth rates is due to differences in the rates of regional population migration. 333 The Mississippi Delta Poverty, Politics and Economic Development Gaile P. Noble Cornell University 1969 72 pp COM-73-11963/8 Both the Office of Equal Opportunity (OEO) and the Economic Development Administration (EDA) of the De- partment of Commerce had begun programs which at- tempted to allow the poor people of the depressed areas to represent themselves on the development councils of EDA and the local poverty boards of OEO. However, this representation of poor people was very quickly eliminated from having any effective influence due to the opposition of local political and economic interests. The author feels this has been nationally true, but particularly in the South where discrimination of color adds further problems in the representation of poor people. Not only that, but their participation in programs designed to benefit them has run into other difficulties. To conclude, the basic theory of this paper is that black poverty in the Delta is only secondarily an eco- nomic or educational problem. Its root lies in the lack of political power of poor people on both local and na- tional levels. 66 334 An Approach To Public Policy Evaluation Donald N. Rothblatt Harvard University Reprinted in Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press 1971 pp 304-313 COM-74-11230 In this paper, the efficacy of the Appalachian Program is assessed by evaluating the benefits and costs of the planning institution responsible for the program — the Appalachian Regional Planning Commission — and com- paring them to an existing alternative structure for administering a public investment program for regional development— the Economic Development Administration. The author concludes that the ARC's greatest value to the region is its role of innovator in the planning process, with spillover transcending the boundaries of Appalachia and representing a major turning point in the evaluation of a national regional development policy in the United States. The ARC's activities can also be viewed as an experiment in multi-functional and multi-jurisdictional planning with broad application. The flexible supplemental grant program enabled many Appalachian States to respond easily to their growing de- sire for investment in human resources while an elaborate procedure for intersectoral bi-lateral trading among the States was developed by the ARC at a substantial admin- strative cost in order to deal with the rigidities of the conditional grants. The Commission has created benefits for the region and the Nation which would not have occurred under an existing alternative form of administer- ing the program (such as a Federal agency). 335 Strategic Interaction and Resource Allocation in Metropolitan Intergovernmental Relations Jerome Rothenberg Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 20 pp COM-74-10652 This model concerns the influence that local govern- ment in a metropolitan area has on the distribution of economic activities within the area. In the present model, the area is assumed to be partitioned into a central city jurisdiction and a single suburban jurisdiction, both of constant area. Certain policy instruments controlled by these jurisdictions are assumed to influence the location decisions of households and businesses. The model indicates how these instruments are used in a way to exert conflicting influences on such decisions, such that the respective opposing pulls are akin to a process of strategic interplay between two players in a variable sum strategic game. Since the model has not been subjected to complete analysis, no attempt was made to denote the exact form of the interplay or its convergence properties. But its source and essential character is described. The key actions are the location choices made by households (for residence) and business (for operation) between the central city and the suburbs, and the re- sponses to, and attempts to direct, these choices by city and suburban governments. The author begins by motivating the private choices, and then indicating the aims of government. 336 Simulating Regional Interindustry Models for Western States William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 14 1969 28 pp COM-74-10881 The purpose of this study is to simulate regional in- terindustry models for Western States. It consists of six parts, namely: (1) introduction, (2) the basic model, (3) aggregation procedure, (4) estimating procedures, (5) tests of basic techniques, and (6) correction of basic estimates. Methodologically, the authors use nonsurvey techniques to estimate interindustry transaction for the States of Washington, Utah, and New Mexico. These esti- mates are simultaneously compared with survey-based tables. With an ordering to techniques by their skill to approximate tentative survey results, the authors conclude that the location-quotient and supply-demand pool tech- niques seem best suited for constructing reasonable models for the three Western States. 337 Technical Supplement to— Simulating Regional Interindustry Models for Western States William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 14 1969 55 pp COM-74-10882 This supplement outlines the procedures in testing the use of nonsurvey techniques to simulate interindustry models for the three Western States. The aggregation patterns used in constructing the simulated models are outlined in Tables 1, 2, and 3. Table 4 presents the price and aggregation weights used in aggregating the national table to regional size for each State. Table 5 shows the common patterns used in calculating information indices to reflect the comparability of State tables. Each section of the computer program constructs a regional gross-flows table based on the aggregated national table and gross output data from the survey based table. This gross-flows table is then fed into the common analytical programs and the details of the remainder of the tables are thereby constructed. A complete set of tables, using as program input the actual gross-flows table from the 1963 State of Washington study, is presented for the construc- tion of interindustry models. Finally, it presents reference tables pertaining to estimates and specific test statistics. 338 The Efficient Provision of Local Non-Private Goods Eugene Smolensky, Nicolaus Tideman and Richard Burton Harvard University February 1969 22 pp COM-74-10294 67 The authors show there are at least two conceptually different ways to internalize geographic spillovers by ad- justing governmental boundaries; and only one is Pareto optimal. They conclude that the received theory of fiscal federalism for geographical spillovers is not sufficient to guarantee the efficient provision of local public goods. Their network approach, on the otherhand, provides the necessary conditions for establishing district boundaries within which to provide a local non-private good efficiently in a uniform plan. The prototype for the network is found by maximizing average net benefits per household with respect to facility size and market area. Given fixed political boundaries, a government may be required in the interests of efficiency to serve those outside its bound- aries. A parallel result deserves equal stress: political units may be required to provide a facility for some but not for others of its residents. 339 Large Industry in a Rural Area: Demographic Economic and Social Impact Gene F. Summers University of Wisconsin August 1973 43 pp COM-74-10214 This study is the result of a case study of the impact of a steel plant on the rural character of three Illinois counties. Using a multi-method approach to monitoring, a team of researchers were able to assess the impact of locating the plant in an area undergoing industrial de- velopment on an array of demographic, economic and social variables, including population, migration, occupa- tional structure and mobility, income, and public services. The data used in the analysis is based on household interviews, secondary sources and the company's person- nel files. The author draws a number of policy considerations related to diffusion of impact. Industrial development does result in more jobs and higher incomes, and serves as a stabilizing influence on the population by arresting the long term trend of decline and outmigration. It does not lead to major disruptions in social and economic systems, nor does extensive urbanization inevitably fol- low from it. Public services require no greater per capita expenditure in a sparsely settled rural area with extensive infrastructure development than may exist in growth centers. Finally, rural areas with developed infrastructure are viable sites for industrial development; thus these areas should be incorporated into multi-county develop- ment planning programs. Evidence suggests that impacts of plant location are diffused over large geographic areas; therefore industrial development should be viewed as a regional phenomenon. EDA's policy of requiring multi-county development plan- ning is underscored in this study. 340 The Lower Rio Grande Valley Development District: A Case Study in Development Thomas Till University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 11 September 1970 COM-73-11962 22 pp plus Appendix and Footnotes The author begins this discussion paper with a histori- cal perspective of the Rio Grande Valley for better under- standing of problems in lagging areas. Comparisons are made between Anglos and Latins in unemployment rates, median family income, median school years, and median age levels. The author presents three alternative policies for de- velopment strategies in the Valley: (1) "Industry-in", aimed at luring more industry into the Valley; (2) stressing more investment in human resources; and (3) a combination of the two above. 341 Federal-State Development Planning: The Federal Field Committee for Development Planning in Alaska Robert Warren and Geoffrey Wandesforde-Smith University of Washington February 1969 168 pp COM-73-11964/6 The Federal Field Committee (FFC) for Development Planning in Alaska is one of approximately a dozen sub- national regional planning entities in which the Federal Government participates. Despite the fact that the Com- mittee differs with most others in several ways— its bound- aries encompass only one state and there is no direct State representation on the planning body— it has certain aspects in common with any agency attempting to carry out comprehensive development planning within the American system of government. In evaluating the Com- mittee, this study has used the standard of what it has done in relation to the constraints it faces. If comprehen- sive planning and the compliance of line agencies to such plans is to be still sought in Alaska, a complete change in the pattern of authority, as well as normal bureaucratic behavior, will be required. This study does not deal with such a change, but rather with the functions of the Committee as it continues in its present altered form. It is assumed that an agency of this type should have responsibility for planning and facilitating developments rather than for planning comprehensively. A second basic issue is the relationship of the Federal government to the State in development programs for the region. Recom- mendations for redesign of the FFC are discussed in de- tail. 342 A Regional Economic Growth Model Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky September 1968 16 pp COM-74-10658 The purpose of this paper is to sketch the broad out- lines of a regional economic growth model which is to serve as a general framework within which the author's explorations of the relationships between financial and agglomerative elements in the economy and regional eco- nomic growth will be made. The paper represents an at- tempt to build upon the work of others in seeking to de- velop a framework that will assist in the investigation of certain aspects of the economic growth process within regions. 68 PLANNING, URBAN 343 Postwar Changes In Land Use In the American City John F. Kain Harvard University November 1967 16 pp COM-74-10450 The trends in the metropolitan development of the United States since World War II, with the decay of central cities and urban sprawl, i.e., the extensive low density development of suburban America, have been subject to considerable attention both here and abroad. This pattern of central city decline and suburban growth is the result of three intimately related forces: (1) rapid dispersal of employment from dense central cities; (2) extensive metropolitan growth associated with low density residential development; and (3) the accelerated growth of "massive" black ghettos in the Nation's largest metro- politan areas. The present spatial structure of the U.S. urban areas and the nature of most so called "urban problems" are due to the interaction of these three factors. Employment dispersal and suburbanization have close parallels in most other Nations, particularly those that are approach- ing U.S. levels of economic and technological develop- ment. However, the third factor, the black ghetto, is uni- que to the U.S. The objective of this paper is to analyze these three factors and their effects on the U.S. metro- politan development, with particular emphasis on the impact of the black ghetto. In concluding, the author gives reasons for foreign Nations taking special interest in the American ghetto experience as a means toward furthering their own urban development. 344 (Boston Redevelopment Plan)— An Independent Evaluation of Its Costs and Benefits Langley Keyes Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 20 pp COM-74-10779 This paper is an intense evaluation of the Boston Re- habilitation Program as seen from the perspective of a city planner with particular interest in the politics of planning and housing. The author takes a look at the degree to which normal rehabilitation systems had to be adjusted to the political and social climate within which that system had to oper- ate, as conceived prior to December 1967. He begins by looking at the original BRP model, its processing, criteria for rehabilitation, and operational constraints, and then goes on to the costs and benefits of negotiating or failing to negotiate with the political systems in which it oper- ates. 345 Some Critical Comments On Property Taxation As An Alternative To Site Planning John B. Legler Washington University, St. Louis November 1970 21 PP COM-74-10133 This paper focuses attention on the relationship be- tween local taxation (primarily property taxation) and urban redevelopment. While many local government units have adopted local sales and income taxes, the dominant form of local taxation still is that imposed on property. Two issues with regard to property taxation have taken preeminence over the role of property taxation and the development process: (1) the apparent inability of prop- erty tax revenues to keep pace with the growing demands for more and better publicly provided services; and (2) the alleged inequities of the present form of property taxation generally employed by local governments. Structural reform of the major revenue source, the property tax, may be required. This paper argues that the adoption of a site value tax does not follow auto- matically since there may be a conflict between social and private objectives and maximizing behavior. Further, while effective planning and property tax policy may bring about socially desirable redevelopment of the core city, this paper points out that the process is not costless and the burdens will be distributed in a way dependent upon the approach adopted. 346 Land Use Control Through Administered Compensation T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 59 February 1970 10 pp COM-74-10372 This paper integrates several views of land use control and offers a mechanism for improving control. The author draws heavily on his Ph.D. dissertation "Three Approaches to Improving Urban Land Use," (University of Chicago, 1969). The author elaborates on two major topics, (1) The Basic Use of Land, and (2) Improving the Mechanism of Land Use Control. Under the first topic the author cites four reasons for planning: 1. It improves the coordination of public services and the private activities that use them so that the greatest value can be obtained from these expendi- tures. 2. In the interest of land owners, it is useful for owners to know what public services will be available in the vicinity of their land. 3. It stresses the collective nature of some land use goals. 4. It advances the process of controlling nuisances by recognizing whether or not a particular activity which constitutes a nuisance may depend on the character of the surrounding activities. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 347 The Economics of Urban Size William Alonso University of California, Berkeley November 1970 31 pp COM-74-11380 This paper discusses the best size for cities. In its simplest sense the question of urban size consists of symmetric parts: how big is too big? and, how big is big enough? Presented here is an aggregative economic approach to the theory of city size, and some empirical findings which suggest that even the largest cities have not yet reached excessive sizes from the point of view of growth and productivity. The discussion of least sizes is more sketchy. Also, some observations and some data are offered on the question of the size of a city in the context of its position in a system of cities. 348 Equity and Its Relation to Efficiency in Urbanization William Alonso University of California, Berkeley July 1968 23 pp COM-74-11233 This paper is divided into two parts. The first is a dis- cussion of the goals of national policies for regional development, focusing primarily on the conceptual and operational difficulties of dealing with the goal of equity. The second part is a paradigm of the interplay between the goals of efficiency and equity in interregional migra- tion. Many simplifications are made to highlight this in- terrelation, which has been the source of considerable confusion. 349 National Interregional Demographic Accounts: A Prototype William Alonso University of California, Berkeley February 1973 114 pp COM-74-10684 New data gathered by the Census, larger computers, and significant advances in the statistical and mathe- matical treatment of demographic variables make it possible to conceive of a system of National Interregional Demographic Accounts. This report describes the concepts, problems, virtues and limitations of this instrument, illustrates its uses, and shows the structure and the findings of a crude prototype the author has con- structed and run. It sketches the direction of refinement of the data, or the relations, and of the theory which would make the model more reliable and operation- ally useful. In this sense this report has several objectives. It presents the concept of a national system of demo- graphic accounts which will be of great value for locali- ties, regions and the national government for the anticipa- tion of the future and the setting of policy. It reports on the beginnings which the prototype represents, but more importantly, it tries to tell how it could be more fully carried out and urges that this be done. 350 A Paradigm of the Efficiency and Equity Consequences of Migration From Rural to Urban Areas William Alonso University of California, Berkeley February 1968 18 pp Note: Final version issued July 1968 as "Equity and its Relation to Efficiency in Urbanization" This paper is in two parts. The first is a schematic dis- cussion of the goals of national policies for regional de- velopment, focusing primarily on the conceptual and operational difficulties that surround the equity goal. This part is intended to be programmatic, reflecting some of the work to be done and some of the work in progress. The second part is a paradigm of the interrela- tion between the goals of efficiency and equity in the consideration of interregional migration. In trying to highlight this interrelation, it makes many radical simpli- fications in order to provide firmer footing on what has been treacherous ground. 351 Problems, Purposes, and Implicit Policies for a National Strategy of Urbanization William Alonso University of California, Berkeley August 1971 33 pp COM-74-11212 This paper was prepared for the National Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, based on research supported by EDA. It discusses the concept of a national policy for overall territorial distribution of population and economic activity. Included are sections on a systems vs. a policies approach, national objectives (efficiency, equity, environmental quality, well being) effects of Federal policies, and conclusions and recom- mendations. The author concludes that since direct policies to modify geographic distribution have been ineffective and in some cases counterproductive, and since some non- territorial policies have had strong geographic consequ- ences, it would be useful to have an agency not directly linked to the executive branch which could report directly and frequently to the Executive, to the Congress, and to the public on territorial problems and on the implicit territorial consequences of diverse national policies. 352 The Question of City Size and National Policy William Alonso University of California, Berkeley June 1970 14 pp COM-74-11442 70 This paper discusses the current approaches to a "na- tional" growth policy as called for in President Nixon's 1969 State of the Union Message. Though still in an early stage, the three most commonly cited approaches may be summarized as follows: (1) a reversal of migratory flows back to the countryside and the development of economic opportunities there; (2) the development of hundreds of new towns as containers for most further urban growth; and (3) the encouragement of growth in alternative urban centers. 353 The System of Intermetropolitan Population Flows William Alonso University of California, Berkeley August 1971 25 pp COM-74-11354 The evolution of the demographic structure of the American metropolitan system has been the result of three forces: (1) migration into the system from non- metropolitan areas and from abroad; (2) natural increase in each of the metropolitan areas; and (3) migrations among the metropolitan areas. As the first two decline in importance, the third comes to dominate. This paper presents some preliminary findings about the dynamics of the system of metropolitan areas in the United States based on empirical regularities and on some behavioral interpretation of these regularities. Some observations on policy for such an urban system are offered. 354 Urban Growth in California: New Towns and Other Policy Alternatives William Alonso University of California, Berkeley May 1971 17 pp COM-74-11346 This paper projects California as being one of the most urbanized and growing States in the Nation and has re- cently become aware of the need to develop policies to distribute this growth in desirable ways. The idea that territorial development at the level of a State can or should be planned or guided is a relatively new one, al- though it is an everyday matter at the level of a city or a county. Further, California's interest in guiding the distribution of its population occurs within a context of renewed efforts to guide population for the Nation as a whole. New towns are discussed as well as the merits of other urbanization policies and suggested experiments. 355 What are New Towns For? William Alonso University of California, Berkeley October 1969 45 pp COM-74-10308 The purpose of this paper is to examine the stated purposes of a "new town" strategy in America as a ra- tional policy in the public interest. The author believes there is little force in the argu- ments for a major national commitment of effort and re- sources to direct a substantial portion of our urbaniza- tion into new towns. On the other hand, there may be some sense in the limited use of new towns for the test- ing and development of technological, physical, and in- stitutional innovations which might be applicable to the expansion and rebuilding of existing cities. 356 Inter-Regional Migration: Evaluation of 1960 Census Data and Implications for Analysis of the 1970 Census William C. Apgar Jr. Harvard University December 1972 38 pp COM-74-10284 This paper outlines the nature of the problems involved in the use of the 1970 Census data on migration and illustrates these problems by means of a detailed analysis of currently available data. The discussion relies primarily on information obtained from the 1950 and 1960 Censuses of Population, but some consideration is given to the Current Population Survey (CPS). After enumerating errors and inconsistencies in the data, the paper suggests a series of rough corrections. 357 Migration as Investment: Some Further Considerations William C. Apgar Jr. Harvard University Discussion Paper No 64 May 1970 53 pp COM-7410370 Samuel Bowles has attempted to explain the variability of net migration for males in 96 population subgroups from each of three Southern census divisions to the non- South in a recent study, "Migration as Investments: Em- pirical Tests of the Human Investment Approach to Geographical Mobility." His principal hypothesis is that migration can best be viewed as an investment in human capital. While this paper concentrates on the approach taken by Bowles, it serves to indicate the confusion present in his attempt to empirically test a set of hypotheses derived from the human capital approach to population mobility. 358 The Public Use Sample and Migration Research William C. Apgar Jr. Harvard University December 1972 12 pp COM-74-10390 This paper briefly discusses the current empirical literature on migration, presents a human capital forma- tion theory of migration and describes how the 1970 Public Use Sample data will be used to test various im- plications of this human capital theory of migration. Finally, it outlines how the Public Use Sample data will be used to investigate the problems associated with the migration of individuals from depressed areas. 71 359 The Failure of Migration of Labor to Reduce Wage and Income Differentials Across Regions Lawrence Belkin University of North Carolina 1973 45 pp COM-74-10683 This paper suggests some reasons why regional income- flow differentials, through the migration of labor, have not been very effective in equalizing regional wage rates and incomes in depressed areas such as the Coastal Plains. Emphasis is placed on the experience of the North Carolina Mobility Project. It is the author's con- tention that mobility projects have a tendency to move workers that would have moved on their own anyway, and that projects such as the North Carolina Mobility Project have not contributed to regional development. Among the reasons given for the low propensity to migrate are: a lack of knowledge of existing opportunities, a lack of skills or education, ties to the local community, and a lack of available housing. 360 Some Effects of Large Scale Physical Environments On Behavior: Implications for Rural-to-Urban Migration Philip K. Berger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No 40 March 1971 59 pp COM-74-10224 This paper examines the influences of three factors on the adjustment of rural/small town migrants to urban areas: (1) the physical environment at both the source and the destination of the migrant; (2) personality, social, and cultural variables; and (3) physical and physiological characteristics. Since the focus here is on physical en- vironmental variables the adjustment process will be couched in terms of using environmental props and com- plex behaviors involving the use of environmental props. 361 Spatial Organization and Levels of Welfare: Degree of Metropolitan Labor Market Participation As a Variable in Economic Development Brian J. L. Berry University of Chicago September 1967 257 pp plus maps and graphs COM-74-10215 This report is based on a set of maps portraying the community behavior of the population of the United States in 1960. The maps are of interest for the picture of the U.S. they provide — all but five per cent of the country's popu- lation resides within the daily commuting fields of its metropolitan centers, and these fields spread over the entire land area of the U.S. except where population densities are less than two persons per square mile and/or where there are national parks and forests, and Indian reservations. In addition, they indicate the nature and extent of the regions required for construction of re- gional accounts, for they address directly the best index of residentiary closure, commuting. 362 Urban Relationships and Regional Growth Brian J. L. Berry University of Chicago April 1970 11 pp COM-74-11241 This paper discusses the need for a new reality to be appreciated and accepted if regional policies to support goals for national growth and an improved quality of life are to advance. Generating processes giving rise to new patterns are the hierarchical diffusion of innovations from large in- novative metropoli to successively smaller urban centers, and spread effects in which the consequences of innova- tion radiate outwards from an urban center into its sur- rounding dependent region. 363 Migration as Investment: Empirical Tests of The Human Investment Approach to Geographical Mobility Samuel Bowles Harvard University July 1969 26 pp COM-74-10375 This paper outlines a simple model of migration as an economic process and provides an empirical test of the model using data on net migration out of the U.S. South. The model of migration as a response to economic in- centive is supported. Results suggest the value of ex- pected income gain and levels of schooling enhance pro- bability of moving, and age appears to reduce it. Signi- ficant racial differences in the main determinants of net migration are apparent. 364 Technological Change, Migration Patterns And Some Issues of Public Policy David Denoon and John R. Meyer Harvard University October 1967 33 pp COM-74-10384 This is one of a series of papers contributing to the Program on Regional and Urban Economics (PRUE) con- ducted at Harvard University. Locational patterns are undergoing change because of fundamental technological and economic changes that modify the profit or utility maximizing calculations of the important decision units in society, particularly house- holds and business firms. Technological change, it should be stressed, is the prime mover in modifying locational choices over time. The locational choice today is best analyzable only in a dynamic or evolutionary framework. 365 The Implications of Rural-Urban Migration for Regional Development and Growth Centers Policies: Summary Irving N. Fisher Brown University March 3, 1971 9pp COM-73-12029 72 The preceding sections of this paper have reviewed and evaluated the findings of recent studies of the rural- urban migration process and have also examined their implications for regional development and growth center policies. This section provides a survey of these findings and briefly reviews the major implications for Federal growth center policies. In addition, this section also identifies several aspects of the rural-urban migration process about which considerably more information is needed. 366 City Size and Municipal Service Costs John L. Gardner University of Chicago June 8, 1972 10 pp COM-73-11723 This paper reports on research to identify determinants of municipal expenditure levels in the United States. A major goal has been to determine jointly the role of income and wealth levels, city size variables which influ- ence service costs, and characteristics of community decision-making relevant in the determination of expendi- ture levels. An additional goal has been to develop a meth- od for identifying determinants of the levels of municipal service costs from observations on expenditures rather than on service output variables. In the proposed model (sketched), and in selected regression results presented, the latter is oriented particularly toward revealing the in- fluence of city population size as a shifter of the muni- cipal service cost functions. 367 A Value Added Test of City Size Economies Hans Genberg University of Chicago July 1972 31 pp COM-74-10213 Through the application of an econometric model this paper represents an attempt to determine if there are significant size economies associated with production of traded goods. By traded goods we mean goods whose prices are not determined by local wages, but rather by world or national market conditions. To sum up we note that the regression results to- gether with the actual distributions of production be- tween cities seem to indicate that while some industries tend to be optimally located there are still some for which the pattern of production among city sizes is not the most efficient. Several points are worth noting with re- spect to the question of the optimum city size. First, looking at the problem only from a production efficiency point of view, we must recognize that there is no unique size which is an optimum one for all types of industries. What emerges is an optimum distribution of cities among sizes. Second, it is essential to recognize that production is not the only important activity carried out in a city. The consumption activities of the city dwellers must also be considered in the determination of the overall opti- mum. To this end we must study the supply relationships governing the production of local goods such as housing and transportation. Dwellers' direct preference as to the size of the city they live in will also play an important role. 368 Migration Centers, Growth Centers and The Regional Commission: An Analysis of Expected Future Lifetime Income Gains to Migrants from Lagging Regions Niles M. Hansen University of Texas at Austin 1970 21 pp COM-74-11225 The purpose of this paper is not simply to identify migration centers benefitting people from lagging areas, but also to analyze their relationship to growth centers. It examines the extent to which migration centers are in fast growth centers; and within regional commission areas, or within other parts of the migrants' home States, or in other States. If the most relevant migration centers are growth centers within regional commission States but outside of regional commission counties, it would seem appropriate to include whole States in planning for the creation of better economic opportunities for the people of the lagging areas. Results of this analysis lend support to this position. 369 The Rural Town and the Scale Question D. R. Haurin and G. S. Tolley University of Chicago June 1973 30 pp COM-74-10567 This paper is offered in the belief that economists can contribute to population distribution policy in at least two ways. First, better understanding can be provided of the future course of population distribution, indicating the benchmark from which any policy must start. Second, attempts can be made to quantify effects on goals of possible policy actions to alter population distribution. This paper reports on efforts to contribute to policy in both ways. 370 The Influence of Relative Wages and Assisted Migration on Locational Preferences: A Study of Mexican Americans in South Texas Niles M. Hansen and William C. Gruben University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 10 September 1970 25 pp This paper attempts to analyze and increase our under- standing of the mobility potential of the Mexican Ameri- can population, particularly in the lagging areas of South Texas. Studies, in general, indicated comprehensive relocation assistance would be more efficient in increasing income and employment opportunities than if efforts were made to 73 attract industry to the area— due to relative disadvantages of the region. 371 Locationai Preferences and Opportunity Costs in a Lagging Region: A Study of High School Seniors in Eastern Kentucky Niles M. Hansen and Richard Yukhin University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 17 September 1969 20 pp COM-73-11961 This paper is concerned with efforts in this country to reduce regional disparities in income and employment opportunity, as to whether it is more important to create jobs in economically lagging areas or to promote migration to areas with higher demand for labor. Responses to a questionnaire completed by 625 graduat- ing seniors from the Big Sandy Region of Eastern Kentucky were analyzed and evaluated. The results showed considerable willingness and readiness to move to other areas offering better economic opportunities. Not necessarily to large metropolitan areas, but intermediate areas as well, as long as education and training have been provided to give people viable alternatives and the opportunity of choice. 372 The Distribution of Rural Nonfarm Population Donald Haurin University of Chicago December 1971 14 pp COM-74-10648 This paper focuses its attention on the leveling off and, in some cases, decline of population from 1940 to 1960 in rural towns. Two main hypotheses are suggested to explain this observation: (1) the number of farmers and their produce are positively correlated with the number of town consumers; and (2) auto transportation now allows rural town residents more access to nearby urban towns. There are other secondary theories within the paper. The author used 60 counties in Kansas and North Dakota as observation sites for his data. 373 Urban Nonfarm Population Donald Haurin University of Chicago June 1972 14 pp COM-74-10389 The concern of this study is the determinants of the population of the small rural town. A major focus is on the economic relations between the town and the sur- rounding farm community. Empirical investigations are directed toward defining the structure of the town in cross-section and its changes over time. Four States were used in the study, and a selection of counties within the States were chosen for 1940, 1950 and 1960. Taken into consideration were: (1) farm population, (2) distance, (3) population of functional economic area (SMSA), (4) in- come, (5) automobiles, (6) value of farm, and (7) farm products. 374 Optimum City Size: The External Diseconomy Question J. V. Henderson, (Queens University) University of Chicago June 1973 31 pp COM-73-11984/4 This paper examines optimum city size in the presence of external diseconomies in production. The example of air and water pollution is used throughout. First, production conditions under which optimum city size is greater than equilibrium city size are examined. Second, the city is viewed as a production consumption unit. The effect of optimally taxing externalties upon both production and consumption efficiency in the city must be examined to determine in net whether city size will rise or fall in the optimum solution. 375 Labor Mobility and Regional Payments Adjustments Charles W. Hultman University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No 30 July 1970 18 pp COM-74-11206 The purpose of this paper is to examine more fully a neglected part of external disequilibrium— the role which labor movements play in the regional balance of payments adjustment process. The analysis considers the impact of labor flows by drawing both on international trade and regional theory, including urban base studies. Trade theory provides a detailed description of balance of payments adjustments, but essentially ignores the possible influence of labor movements. Urban base studies and regional analysis consider labor migration but have not fully developed a description of the balance of payment adjustment process. 376 Factors Associated with Population Mobility in the Atlantic Coastal Plains Region George Iden and Charles Richter University of North Carolina 1973 14 pp COM-74-10113 This paper uses multiple regression analysis to deter- mine what variables are associated with population mobil- ity. Two migration equations are derived, one for total in-migration and one for total out-migration, to explore the variations in migration flows among the 24 State Economic Areas (SEA) in the Atlantic Coastal Plains between 1955-1960. The variables examined include the average number of unemployed during the period, the de- cline in agricultural employment, the per capita income, the increase in non-agricultural employment, and the level 74 of education. The regression models developed suggest that migration flows into and out of State Economic Areas within the region are significantly influenced by the presence or absence of economic opportunities. 377 Geographic and Industrial Mobility of Labor in the Coastal Plains Region, 1960-65 George Iden University of North Carolina 1973 24 pp COM-74-10111 This paper explores the geographic and industrial mobility of workers in the Coastal Plains Region from 1960-1965, using the one-percent Continuous Work History Sample of Social Security records. The primary focus is on the earnings and changes in earnings of migrants. Among the findings are that: (1) out-migrants from the Coastal Plains (especially blacks going to the Northeast) experienced relatively large gains in earnings compared to non-migrants; (2) black farm workers tended to shift from the farm to the construction, trade, low-wage manufacturing, and services sectors; and (3) the region became a net importer of labor during the period under study. 380 Toward an Improved Labor Relocation Program: Evaluating the Foreign and Domestic Experience N. Dann Milne University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 13 October 1970 54 pp COM-74-10462 This paper is concerned with the need of a continuous labor relocation program to fill an important gap in the totality of employment services needed by the American worker. An evaluation is made of the extensive foreign experience in Great Britain and Sweden and the more recent American (Kentucky) experience with relocating workers, with special reference to improving the success of the domestic program and sharpening labor relocation as a regional development tool. 381 Migration, Labor Force, and Human Resources: A Synthesis of the Economic Development Administration's Research, Preliminary Draft Peter A. Morrison The RAND Corporation August 1972 49 pp COM-74-11211 378 The Distribution and Movement of Jobs in Industry John F. Kain Harvard University November 1966 46 pp This paper is an analysis of postwar changes in the spatial distribution of employment and population. Out- lying portions of metropolitan areas have exploded, while central areas, in most instances, have actually declined. Moreover, depopulation was selective, and employment decline aggravated old problems and created new ones. 379 Exploring the Relationship Between Physical and Socio-Economic Attributes of Populations (A Test of the Size-Density Rule Using County Data) David E. Kaufman University of California, Los Angeles 1969 146 pp COM-73-12025 This paper explores the size-density rule as it applies to county data and to the general nature of society at this point in time. Results indicate this rule continues to be a useful differentiator of population settlements but greater varia- tion exists for metropolitan areas than for non-metro- politan urban places. Briefly, large population agglomera- tions can be identified in terms of "little societies". A review of research studies on human migration sponsored by the Economic Development Administration. Its principal objectives are to synthesize findings from a large number of studies and relate them to policy issues of concern to EDA. Several recurrent common themes emerge from the research: (1) Migration appears to encourage national economic efficiency. It allocates workers in a way that promotes increases in national output. (2) Apart from these efficiencies, however, migratory adjustments exhibit im- perfections of a longer-term cumulative nature. Areas of persistent outmigration find their development potential steadily eroding, largely through selective losses of high- quality elements in the labor force. The effects may worsen already incipient local obsolescence, thereby ag- gravating regional inequities. (3) By entering into the basic anatomy of both growth and decline, migration impels a divergence in localities' performance, thereby engendering conflict between the goals of equity and efficiency. Several alternatives, each with merits and drawbacks, are ex- plored: (1) Public investment infrastructure (2) Identifying industries suited to distressed areas, and (3) Strengthen- ing the effectiveness of migration as an avenue to eco- nomic and social betterment. 382 Differential Growth Among Large U.S. Cities Richard F. Muth Washington University, St. Louis July 1966 44 pp COM-74-10642 This paper is concerned primarily with differential growth in population, employment, and earnings among 75 large U.S. cities in the period 1950 to 1960. Presented is a brief description of the model underlying the empirical work, the data used, estimates of the determinants of migration and employment change, and estimates of the model's other equations. Also described is the quantitative implications of the results obtained for the determinants of differential growth in employment among cities and the allocation of the city's labor supply between its ex- portable and domestic sectors. 383 Migration: Chicken or Egg? Richard F. Muth Washington University, St. Louis 1969 35 pp COM-73-11976 This paper is concerned principally with the relation- ship between migration and the growth of employment in large, medium, and small U.S. cities during the 1950's. Findings indicate that income differentials have effects of substantial practical importance upon differential migration and thus employment growth. 384 Migration, Employment, and Race in the Deep South Joseph J. Persky and John F. Kain Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 46 May 1969 23 pp COM-74-10368 This paper examines the extent to which the current racial composition of migration from the nonmetropolitan Deep South is a product of the peculiarities of the racial distribution of employment in that region. Such calcula- tions in no way imply that the problems raised by migra- tion are best solved in the South. However, they make clear the causes of that migration and suggest the likely results of efforts to expand and open Southern employ- ment. 385 The North South Migration Process: Some Observations on Urban-Rural Migration I. N. Fisher and S. W. Purnell The RAND Corporation March 31, 1973 45 pp COM-74-10556 In an accompanying study entitled, "The Rural Urban Migration Process: A Longitudinal Analysis of Rural Outmigration," an analysis was made of the nature and consequences of out-migration from the rural South dur- ing the decade of the late 1950's and early 1960's. An examination of selected rural areas indicated that over half of the population had moved elsewhere during that time period. Moreover, the migrants tended to be the younger members of the work force. Although most of these migrants continued to live in the South, usually within the same State or Census region, a substant<'< number of rural out-migrants moved North. This paper examines one aspect of the other side of the migration equation: the consequences of migration to the South from the metropolitan regions of the North. In particular, the study analyzes the characteristics and destinations of these migrants, and assesses their impact on rural areas of the South. 386 The Rural Urban Migration Process: A Longitudinal Analysis of Rural Outmigration I N. Fisher and S. W. Purnell The RAND Corporation February 1972 86 pp COM-74-10659 The primary objective of the study is to identify the sequence and pattern of moves between predominantly rural areas in the South and larger cities and towns and the impact of this movement on the residual population and labor force that remains in the rural areas. In par- ticular, the study: (a) identifies patterns of movement be- tween Southern rural counties and urban counties in the South and elsewhere; (b) determines the extent to which these patterns differ among various socioeconomic subgroups of the migrant population; (c) identifies the income changes that occur with rural -to-urban migration as a function of distance, region of origin and destina- tion, and characteristics of the migrant; and (d) assesses the impact of rural-to-urban migration on regional and rural development programs. 387 An Analysis of Population Growth and Change in Slovenia and in the Rest of Yugoslavia Andrei Rogers and Susan McDougall University of California, Berkeley June 1968 40 pp COM-73-11681 This paper reports on recent trends in the growth and distribution of the population of the Republic of Slovenia and of the aggregation of all other Yugoslavian Republics. The paper begins with a description of the 1963 popula- tion, disaggregated by age, sex, and the two regions. Next, the components of growth are analyzed and the 1963 population projected to 1998 and from 1998 to the stable state. Finally, the paper considers the population of one area within Slovenia, the fifteen communes of the Ljubljana Metropolitan Region, focusing on the intraregional popula- tion distribution of that area and its growth in relation to that of Slovenia as a whole. 388 Projected Population Growth in California Regions: 1960-1980 Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley December 1965 47 pp COM-74-10218 76 This paper focuses on population growth in California regions. It presents three principal series of projections of the population, by age and State Economic Area, for 1965 to 1980, using 1960 counts as a benchmark. The results indicate the probable future regional distribution and age composition of the State's population under various assumptions with respect to inter- and intra-state migration patterns. 389 A Regression Analysis of Interregional Migration in California Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley May 1967 262-267 pp COM-74-10673 In this paper an attempt is made to test the hypothe- sis that internal migration is held to be an important way by which people respond to changing economic opportuni- ties and thereby redirect the spatial allocation of labor toward a more optimal pattern. This is to be achieved by measuring statistically the degree of association between spatial variations in economic opportunities and variations in interregional flows in California. Data used are the U.S. Census 1955-1960 Inter-state Economic Area (SEA) flows. The technique of analysis is multiple regression. 390 Non-Market Income and Out-Migration in Lagging Regions William R. Russell and Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 32 1970 16 pp plus tables COM-74-11228 This paper analyzes the major elements which deter- mine the extent to which people move out of lagging regions in terms of a set of relations between net migra- tion and certain categories of things generally believed to be elements influencing the location decisions of peo- ple in these regions. 392 Some Basic Principles of Optimality and City Size Barton A. Smith University of Chicago June 1973 27 pp COM-74-10858 The purpose of this paper is to examine theoretical reasons why current cities might not be the optimal size and examine policy implications suggested by the analy- sis. What is found is that whenever there are "social cost" externalties involved with any type of economic activity such that the costs or benefits perceived privately differ from the costs or benefits that befall upon society as a whole, then the ordinary workings of a market eco- nomy will fail to provide optimal results. This paper is concerned with externalties such as those surrounding pollution, congestion and scale economies that may re- sult in cities becoming either too large or too small. 393 Urban-Rural Balance OPTIMUM CITY SIZE G. L Sieb University of North Carolina January 1969 24 pp COM-74-10297 This study is an attempt to determine the optimum size of a city. The paper is divided into three parts: Part One includes a history of urbanization, sketching the growth patterns in the United States from 1790-1960. Part Two outlines a number of component parts which must be recognized if the optimum city size is to be defined. Among those mentioned are health services, ed- ucational opportunity, psychological and social charac- teristics, and economies of scale and municipal efficiency. Part Three suggests where the present patterns of growth may lead development in the future. The author concludes that the optimum city appears to contain any- where from 50,000 to 250,000 people, covering a land area of 1.5 to 4 miles in radius. 391 Migration— A Multi-Regional Approach: A Critique of Net Migration Studies Robert Schuessler Harvard University December 1972 26 pp COM-74-10402 394 Toward a Theory of Urban Public Facility Location Michael B. Tietz University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 67 November 1967 27 pp COM-74-10382 The purposes of this paper are to review the empirical research in interregional migration, to discover and re- work its weakest points, and to correct previously unno- ticed errors. Research on human migration has progressed tremendously in the last decade as governmental interest in problems of deteriorating central cities and depressed regions has risen. Studies of migration have been frag- mented and since these studies are being applied to the analysis of specific government policies, it is important to critically examine these studies and methodology. The purpose of this paper is to make a case for a field of location theory specifically devoted to urban public facilities. This endeavor appears to be worthwhile both for its theoretic interest and its probable utility. Theore- tical problems derive chiefly from the system character of the unit of location and the public decision aspect of objective functions and constraints. Practical applications are suggested by recent attempts to improve the quality of local resource allocation through such devices as planning, programming, and budgeting systems. 77 395 Economic Costs of Spatial Alternatives in Growth George S. Tolley University of Chicago Final Report Summary June 1973 18 pp COM-7441209 This is a final report of research on factors influencing regional population distributions and on consequences of alternative regional growth policies. The report consists of an overview-narrative (with appended bibliography) to- gether with a set of research papers by the individual research participants. It is the purpose of this research to develop a con- ceptual framework which could explain the prevalence of these problems in the larger cities, and thus provide a basis for evaluating policies to influence the distribu- tion of population among cities of different sizes. The results of this project could be used to make pre- liminary quantitative estimates of specific measures aimed at influencing the distribution of population. It discusses some possibilities, including low interest loans with interest rates keyed to city size, migration sub- sidies, subsidies or tax credits for job development, and national payroll or property taxes which differ in rate depending on city size. 396 Economic Policy Toward City Bigness George S. Tolley University of Chicago September 11-12, 1969 25 pp COM-74-11316 A study concerning the hypothesis that urban condi- tions such as air pollution, crowded transportation facili- ties, and riots are the results of overcentralization of economic activities. It considers policies designed to control urban sprawl, encourage different urban-rural mix, and balance regional growth. This paper analyzes a total economy in which there are commodity and factor flows between cities, with external- ties in production. Conditions under which a transfer of resources between cities raises total income are consid- ered, and, in light of the results, policies affecting city size are discussed. 397 Migration and The Urban Hex George S. Tolley University of Chicago June 22, 1972 20 pp COM-74-10557 The author suggests that the factors of past migration, discrimination, and local public finance are key reasons for the greater magnitude of current urban problems. He argues that much of the urban problems stem from the constant migration of unskilled, uneducated blacks, and other minority groups from the South, into large central and northern cities. The author points out, unlike in the past, many of these uneducated immigrants, because of racial and housing discrimination, are failing to disperse either income-wise, as in reference to minimum wages paid, or geographically, therefore resulting in a greater number of concentrated city ghettos. The author continues further into the analysis of the different tastes of people over the years in reference to crime control. Through studies, it is found that in addition to unemployment and other factors, territories controlled by powerful ghetto gangs had the lowest crime rates. To conclude, it is possible to assert that urban poverty and crime problems would be less if there had been greater past education efforts. 398 Population Distribution Policy George S. Tolley University of Chicago September 11, 1971 18 pp COM-74-11315 This paper is concerned with how economics can be used more fully in analyzing population distribution policy questions. After dealing briefly with why there are cities of different sizes, the paper considers possible reasons for attempting to influence where people live including mar- ket externalties, institutional externalties, nonpriced goods and national public goods. A quantitative approach to evaluation of policies is suggested. The approach is illustrated with numerical examples for environmental effects connected with city size. Because the examples suggest how to evaluate efforts to disperse economic activity to areas outside the nation's larger cities, they are especially relevant to rural development policy. 399 The Population Component of Rural-Urban Balance: An Empirical Investigation Quentin Uppercue University of North Carolina 1973 88 pp This paper examines the differential impacts of differ- ences in natality, mortality, and migration on metropolitan population growth and its composition. The census sur- vival rate technique and the vital statistics method are used to measure both the long-term (1940-60) and short- term (1955-60) effects for a sample of metropolitan areas of 250,000 or more. Included is a reconsideration of some of the normative policy issues associated with the general equilibrium formulation as they are affected by the em- pirical findings. 400 Rural Industrialization and In-Migration: A Case Study of the Big Sandy Region Richard Yukhin University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 27 1970 21 PP COM-74-10632 This study analyzes data from applications of potential immigrants who applied for employment in a new Ameri- can Standard Company plant in the Paintsville— Prestons- 78 burg area of the Big Sandy region of Eastern Kentucky. The principal objective is to shed light on the nature of immigration if rural areas are industrialized, and to con- sider the more general implications for regional develop- ment planning. 401 Analysis of Socio-Economic Characteristics of Recent Labor Force Growth and Migration in the New York Metropolitan Area, 1960-65 Manuel Zymelman Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1970 29 pp COM-73-11683 This paper focuses on the demographic and economic characteristics of white and non-white workers in the largest metropolitan area in the U.S. Data and tabulations are based on a one percent sample of social security files. These data identify individuals by age, sex, color, industry, income, and location, among other variables. Future use of the data can be of great use in the building of models aimed not only at explaining the recent past but also in simulating migration and income policies for the future. POPULATION MODELS 402 The Aggregation Problem in Demography Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley October 1967 27 pp COM-73-11684 solely on the basis of historical data on interregional population distributions. Since the results are largely unsatisfactory, a large por- tion of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the con- ditions leading to the poor performance of the method by evaluating, in particular, alternative estimators and by considering the possibility of "data smoothing". Recourse to "data smoothing", the author concludes, appears to be necessary in instances where the operator undergoes considerable changes over time. Furthermore, data permitting, estimation of migration operators rather than population growth operators seems to lead to im- proved results. 404 Estimating a Matrix Population Growth Operator from Distributional Time Series Andrei Rogers and Robert Miller University of California, Berkeley December 1967 751-756 pp COM-73-12022 This paper describes and illustrates a method for an- alyzing and forecasting interregional population growth and distribution estimated solely on the basis of historical data on interregional population distributions. The method estimates a growth regime which, when applied to the initial interregional population distribution in the time series, most closely reproduces the remaining population distributions in the historical sequence. The author concludes that the method is feasible. Moreover, it appears the linear programming formula- tion of the estimation procedure provides a satisfactory method for approximating an unknown interregional re- gime of growth. This paper is an attempt to establish rational decision rules for aggregating demographic data. Drawing on the related literature on the aggregation problem in input- output economics, the author considers the question: Under what conditions can we consolidate space, people, and time in inter-regional population models without de- viating from the population estimates that would have been derived in the absence of aggregation? He begins by considering the effects of spatial aggregation, i.e., consolidation of regions. Next, he focuses on the con- sequences of color or sex differentiated cohorts. Then follows an analysis of the influences of temporal con- solidation, i.e., consolidation of time intervals, with another look at spatial aggregation. Finally, the paper investigates the joint impact of all three forms of aggregation and attempts to establish guides for rational consolidation. An illustrative numerical example concludes this paper. 403 Estimating Interregional Population and Migration Operators From Interregional Population Distribution Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley April 1967 38 pp COM-74-11382 This paper describes and illustrates a method for estimating the regime of growth of a multiregional system 405 The Multiregional Matrix Growth Operator and the Stable Interregional Age Structure Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley 1966 537-544 pp COM-73-11969/5 This paper develops an interregional cohort-survival population model in matrix terms allowing the utilization of well-established results in the theory of non-negative matrices to derive the intrinsic rate of growth and stable interregional age structure of a population that is sub- jected to a specified unchanging regime of growth. 406 Multisectoral Models of Regional Demographic and Economic Growth Andrei Rogers and Susan McDougall Choy University of California, Berkeley February 1966 160 pp COM-73-11973/7 The intent of this paper is to begin a framework for linking multisectoral demographic and economic regional models of growth. 79 Among the numerous values of such an approach, the author lists verisimilitude, which is better approximated in a model taking into account the continuous process of adjustment between demographic and economic sys- tems; second, that for planning purposes it is desirable to have consistent forecasts of demographic and eco- nomic activity; third, to allow more efficient use of data available. The paper first examines in detail the basic demo- graphic and economic models, considering the problems of stability and aggregation in such models. Then some extensions to the basic models are examined that either provide possible linkage points or just generally add to the realism of the model. Finally, three multisectoral macroeconomic models are reviewed that are based on input-output models. planning document. Planning, in general, is not given much attention in the district organizations. Similarly, the Positive Action Programs (PAP's) required of the growth centers as a prerequisite for EDA grants were found to be almost completely disregarded for planning or decision- making purposes. The consultant found that, despite EDA standards concerning the organization and manage- ment of districts, they are really run by the Executive Directors and the full time professional staff. This staff, however, is very responsive to the political, social and economic forces within their districts. Thus their main focus of effort is on industrial prospecting and grants- manship even though emphases and priorities of these two activities vary considerably among the districts. In general, however, the consultant finds that the plan- ning grants program serves a useful purpose and should be continued. 407 On Perfect Aggregation in the Matrix Cohort Survival Model of Interregional Population Growth Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley Journal of Regional Science Vol. 9. No. 3 1969 pp 417-424 COM-73-11986/9 This paper examines the conditions under which it is possible to consolidate regions, people, and time, in a matrix cohort-survival model of population growth, and still obtain the same results as would have been obtained by using the original unconsolidated model. There are two conditions, rarely met in practice, which will produce perfect aggregation in the model. First, that two regions of populations whose age-specific rates of fertility and mortality in the absence of intermigration, and whose age-specific rates of outmigration to the uncon- solidated region or regions are equal, can be perfectly aggregated. The second asserts that two regions, or popu- lations with different age-specific rates, can be perfectly aggregated if their population distributions retain a con- stant proportional relationship to each other. PROGRAM EVALUATION, EDA 408 Evaluation of Economic Development Administration Planning Grants Battelle Memorial Institute May 1970 311 pp COM-74-10841 This is an evaluation of the planning grants program based on in-depth studies of 26 Economic Development Districts, Redevelopment Areas and Indian Reservations. The study examines the following aspects of district and other EDA funded planning organizations: economic and political factors in district program organization and operations; who runs the districts; the district staffs; and what the district staffs do covering such functions as eco- nomic planning, grantsmanship, industrial prospecting and technical assistance. The study concludes that the Overall Economic Development Plan (OEDP) is generally regarded as a requirement that must be met as a prere- quisite for funding of EDA grants rather than as a helpful 409 Local Development Corporations— A Preface to Evaluation Andrew J. Bennett 1972 35 pp This paper describes the objectives, activities, strengths and deficiencies of various local development corporation approaches. The approaches covered include SBA Local Development Company (502), Small Business Investment Company, Minority Enterprise Small Busi- ness Investment Company, Community Development Corporation, and the Model Cities Development Corpora- tions. The differences among these various approaches are highlighted. The paper raises certain questions of priori- ties (such as objectives to be met, scale of effort to be supported, leverage capabilities desired, degree of cooper- ation with other institutions and organizations, amount of community control to be exercised, etc.) that EDA needs to explore before it selects any one approach or a com- bination to evaluate to insure that the results meet the Agency's needs, programs and goals. The paper, finally, lists pertinent criteria that could be used in the evalua- tion. 410 Evaluating the Returns to Regional Economic Development Programs Stanley M. Besen Institute for Defense Analyses Economic and Political Studies Division October 1966 19 pp PB-173914 The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to set out a methodology whereby antipoverty programs focused to- ward regions can be evaluated; and (2) to offer empirical evidence with which to begin such an evaluation. The paper examines two of the current regional development programs and proposes a method for arriving at estimates which can be used in a cost-benefit study of the programs. 411 An Evaluation of EDA Public Works Projects Boise Cascade Center for Community Development August 1970 Vol. I, 60 pp Vol. I appendix A, 107 pp Vol. II Project Summaries, 341 pp This study describes the methodology used and findings made as a result of an evaluation of 149 public works projects. The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the success of the EDA Public Works Program to date; to identify ways in which the program can be made more effective; and to establish a framework for future evalua- tions. Each project was evaluated for its job impact, its structural impact, its development process impact and its service impact. Impact grades were given to each of these impact results. The grades were based on an evaluation of several factors. These factors were deter- mined to be unique to the particular impact result. The evaluation concludes that a substantial number of proj- ects were successful in terms of their job impact. Success was also evidenced in terms of the stability of the jobs and their contribution to the diversification of industry in local areas. A significant number of the evalu- ated projects were also found to have substantially im- proved the local economic development process. On the other hand, the study concludes that the service impact generated by the projects was insignificant. The study contains recommendations concerning improvements in the criteria used to approve projects, cautions to be fol- lowed in approving projects and verification of project benefit claims. Several recommendations are also made for the revision of the methodology used for the study to insure a better system for future evaluations. Volume I, Appendix A contains the forms and questionnaires used during the course of the study and Volume II contains summary evaluations of 125 public works projects. 412 Indian Economic Development— An Evaluation of EDA's Selected Indian Reservation Program Boise Cascade Center for Community Development March 1972 Vol. I, 82 pp; Vol. II, 390 pp Vol. I COM-72-10625 Vol. II COM-72-10626 This study describes the evaluation results of an analysis of the EDA Selected Indian Reservation Program which had been established originally to carry out a comprehensive development strategy on a selected list of Indian reservations. These reservations were considered most likely to achieve self sustaining economic develop- ment through proper use of Federal assistance. Sixteen reservations were originally named to an Action List for this purpose. This report represents the findings, con- clusions and recommendations resulting from the evalua- tions of these reservations. The methodology used involved a detailed examination of each EDA project approved on the reservations. The principal criteria used in the evaluation were actual job creation traceable to the projects and the improved development potential resulting from the projects. The study concludes that the projects had created and saved a significant number of jobs on these reservations and that the program had improved the potential for economic development on a majority of the reservations. However, the main contribution, in this regard, was made by the public works program. Neither the business loan nor technical assistance program have participated significant- ly in the selected reservation program. The planning as- sistance program was found to have promise but it needs considerable improvement. The report, then, outlines a number of recommenda- tions concerning each of the program tools as well as the operations of the Indian Desk. Volume II contains the in- depth case studies and the interview guides used dur- ing the study. One guide established the framework for gathering the information concerning the resources and setting of each reservation, the role of Federal programs on each reservation and the detailed background and im- pact of each of the four EDA program tools as applied on each reservation. 413 An Evaluation Methodology For Technical Assistance Programs Booz, Allen and Hamilton Inc. December 1969 260 pp PB-189705 This study outlines a methodology for evaluating the impact of EDA Technical Assistance projects. The frame- work, techniques and criteria can be used to analyze past and current activities as well as to forecast potential effectiveness of TA programs and projects. Three mea- sures are used to evaluate effectiveness. These are: direct economic impact, overall economic development in the local area and improvement of local economic capabili- ties. The proposed methodology calls for decisions to be stated and consequences to be evaluated at prescribed points during the planning, management and evaluation phases of technical assistance activities. Judgmental considerations are guided by analytical and quantified techniques that are provided as part of the methodology. These include use of: overall indicators of economic capability, area economic profiles, key economic cap- ability, area economic profiles, key economic indicators, forecasts, matrices and graphs, program scoring grids and applicant qualifications. Data sources for this information are indicated. Ten case studies illustrating use of the methodology are included in the appendix. 414 An Evaluation of the Business Loan Program of the Economic Development Administration Booz, Allen and Hamilton Inc. July 1970 Vol. I, 94 pp COM-74-10872 This three volume report documents the evaluation of the effectiveness of EDA's Business Loan Program. Vol- ume I presents a summary of the results produced by the evaluation. Volume II presents the individual results and an overview of ten in-depth case studies of firms assisted with business loans. Volume III presents the results of a survey research effort covering 44 EDA assisted firms. The study emphasizes the identification of the benefits produced by the loans— such as jobs created and saved, income generated, beneficiaries of the jobs and income, and private investment generated. It, then, determines the costs incurred by the government to produce the benefits and makes benefit-cost comparative analyses. Cost to benefit ratios are used for this purpose. In addition, through the use of case studies, the evaluation also identifies qualitative benefits such as social and public improvements resulting from EDA as- sisted firms. The study concludes that the EDA Business Loan Program is reasonably successful in achieving its primary purpose of creating jobs which provide greater income opportunities for unemployed and underemployed individuals. This success is further enhanced by the fact that the benefits are realized at relatively low costs. The 81 study concludes that the program has been effective in locating these jobs and firms primarily in EDA designated areas. Moreover, it was found that in some instances these firms have been instrumental in attracting other firms to the area, thereby increasing the initial benefits. While the impacts on social and public improvements were found to vary from case to case, there were sufficient number of cases found where such qualitative results have been achieved that such results can also be con- sidered a positive aspect of the Business Loan Program. The study was unable to establish the net impact in jobs and income on the designated county resulting from the "musical chairs" or multiple job shift effect and it suggests further evaluation of this phenomenon. 415 Procedure for Collecting and Analyzing Costs Data on EDA Training-Related Projects Centaur Management Consultants Inc. March 1972 49 pp COM-74-10948 This report outlines a procedure for collecting and analyzing cost data on EDA training-related projects. This procedure provides cost analysis support for the Development Associates, Inc. study "An Evaluation of EDA Training Related Projects". This report consists of a dis- cussion of project work activities, a description of various cost models used in public and private activities, the methodologies used to develop them, the data collection procedure to be used to support the recommended model, the data utilization procedures with the methodology and a series of recommendations. The study also concludes that the Federal government exercises significantly greater influence on economic de- velopment through its direct actions than through assis- tance programs. This results partially from the power of Federal regulatory mechanisms and the heavy Federal consumption of goods and services. Despite their greater impact, the report states that there is little evidence that the Federal government has considered the possibility of altering direct activities to achieve selective geographic impacts within the scope of national growth policy. This lack of uniformity in Federal objectives and approach was found to be evidenced by the various regional develop- ment organizations. The study findings indicate a wide range of perceptions, priorities and strategies among these organizations. The study does not see that the problem will be faced by pending legislation. It found that several legislative proposals before the 91st Congress had significant im- plications for regional economic development. The Con- gress, however, has not considered any legislation which would result in a deliberate redistribution of population or economic activity which is inherent in a policy of national growth. Finally, the study finds that interest groups are also of different minds concerning growth. It was found that they share a common concern that the rate of increasing ur- banization must be reversed or at least curtailed. Beyond this, there is very little agreement . . . either on what the problem is, or what solutions might be most appropriate. The study makes a number of recommendations concern- ing formulation of a national growth policy, and actions necessary to implement such a policy through growth centers. Volume II contains detailed analysis of the 42 Federal assistance programs that were evaluated during the study. 416 Federal Activities Affecting Location of Economic Development Center for Political Research November 1970 Vol. I, 138 pp COM-71-00164 Vol. 1 1 , 235 pp COM-71-00165 This report details the results of a survey conducted to determine the major aspects of Federal influence on the location of economic development. The study con- sists of five elements: (1) analysis of selected federal assistance programs (2) review of selected federal regulatory and procurement activities (3) regional develop- ment strategies (4) current legislation of importance to economic development and (5) interest group perceptions. The greatest emphasis is placed on the first element. The study finds that the geographic impacts of programs analyzed, in the aggregate, are modest. Even with substantial modifications of priorities, fund- ing levels and administrative processes the capacity of these programs to alter— and particularly to reverse- geographic patterns of economic development is extremely limited. The study states that aid to business investment through various loan, plant and equipment subsidies has the greatest and most immediate effect of stimulating additional economic development; that aid to public facilities and other infrastructure is important in remov- ing barriers to further economic development, but does not appear to stimulate the process initially; and that invest- ment in human resources has little direct and demon- strable economic impact. 417 An Evaluation of the Economic Development Administration's Business Loan Program Chilton Research Services and CONSAD Research Corporation July 1969 160 pp PB-188265 This study was conducted to evaluate EDA's business loan program in terms of its economic impacts on de- pressed areas. The study determines the extent of pro- gram benefits, the factors underlying program success and the incidence of program benefits. The framework in which the findings of the study are analyzed is that of benefit-cost analysis. Statistical methods are used both in the data collection phase and in the analysis. In ad- dition multiplier analysis and Markovian incidence an- alysis are used. Using a probability sample of 40 firms which received EDA loans, the evaluation states that the loans generated aggregate benefits far in excess of their costs. The study, however, suggests that even greater results could be achieved if loans were larger in size and were placed in regions having larger populations and a better quality labor force. 418 Multiple Job Shifts Associated with EDA Business Loans Chilton Research Services June 1970 75 pp COM-74-10945 82 This study attempts to answer the question of the extent to which the primary, direct employment benefits of the EDA loan program are augmented by the musical chairs or "trickle down" effects of multiple job shifts. It attempts to determine the extent to which jobs vacated by new but previously employed workers in the EDA loan recipient firms were filled or not filled from the ranks of the unemployed, by new labor force entrants, by farm workers or by still other previously employed individuals. The study uses a sample of 31 firms which received EDA business loans and a sample of 1742 new employees work- ing for these firms. These employees form Tier I of a three tier categorization. Individuals filling jobs vacated by Tier I employees are classified as Tier II, while those filling the vacancies left by Tier II employees are termed as Tier III employees. The study concludes that a substantial number of jobs in Tier I are filled by persons previously unemployed or underemployed. A large number of jobs in Tier II and III are likewise filled by workers who had the same pre- vious employment status as those in Tier I. The study states that there was a significant increase in earnings in all three tiers and that Tier II and III employees received considerable training. It concludes that the musical chair phenomenon is an important direct benefit of the EDA loan program. The report contains a description of the meth- odology used to make the study together with the con- ceptual framework for the study and the formula deriva- tions that were used. The study also has copies of the questionnaire responses. 420 An Analysis of Economic Development Administration Technical Assistance Projects— Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations CONSAD Research Corporation July 1970 Vol. I, 60 pp; Vol. II, 479 pp COM-74-10944 This study is an evaluation of the results produced by 121 EDA technical assistance projects. The projects rep- resent the major categories of EDA technical assistance program activities including urban, rural and University Center project categories. The projects were evaluated for their job and income impact as well as their effect on attitudes in local area actions concerning economic change. The study documents the fact that, because of the nature of technical assistance and because of the diverse nature and objectives of the projects that were evaluated, the projects had a wide range of direct results. Conse- quently it was difficult to present meaningful measures or aggregate results of the projects studied. The study did find, however, that a number of projects had a positive effect on the creation of jobs, and in chang- ing attitudes concerning economic development. The study contains a number of recommendations concerning program activities to be continued, changes in program emphases and activities to be undertaken, funding pat- terns to be followed, geographical and target population dispersion of program effort to be made and continuing evaluation and analysis procedures to be instituted. Vol- ume II contains descriptions of the specific results achieved by each of the 121 projects that were evaluated. 419 A Survey of Multiple Job Shifts in Economic Growth Areas Chilton Research Services May 1972 85 pp COM-74-11210 This study was conducted to determine whether the job shifting pattern in growth centers differs from that previously reported in another study which examined the "musical chair" phenomenon in non-growth areas. The same methodology and approach is used as in the pre- vious study. Thus, previously employed individuals hired by EDA assisted firms are classified as Tier I employees. Tier II employees are those individuals who occupied those jobs vacated by Tier I employees and who were previously unemployed or are new labor force entrants. Similarly an unemployed person or a new labor force entrant filling a job vacated by a Tier II employee is designated as Tier III. This report only collects and com- piles data on this process as it occurs in growth centers. No analysis is made. Furthermore, this investigation is limited to the chain of benefits stemming directly from the series of multiple job shifts initiated by a given episode of increased employment by a firm in a growth area. No data was collected which relates to any possible indirect benefits such as increased demand for supportive goods and services. The report contains tables aggregating and summarizing the data according to questions asked; coding instructions for the questionnaires used for each of the three tiers; and sample copies of the question- naires used to collect the data. 421 An Evaluation System For EDA Technical Assistance Projects— Study Design CONSAD Research Corporation November 1969 253 pp PB-194243 This study develops methods for evaluation of Tech- nical Assistance (TA) projects undertaken by the Eco- nomic Development Administration. The study takes as given the basic long-range goals and objectives of EDA as contained in the enabling legislation. These are not examined or analyzed, per se. The major emphasis is on the development of a system which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of any specific TA projects in contributing to the eventual attainment of these long- range goals. The study uses the approach of identifying a set of intermediate goals which provide an immediate connection to EDA's overall goals and objectives. They fall into three categories, i.e., increasing employment, decreasing underemployment and increasing income. After identifying the intermediate goals, a set of variables which can be used to measure the degree of goal attainment is established for each goal. Finally, defining types and sources of data complete the establishment of a concep- tual framework for the study and method for conduct of subsequent evaluations of the effectiveness of T.A. projects. 83 422 A Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of Outmigration on Income and Unemployment Control Analysis Corporation September 1971 31 PP COM-74-10947 This study attempts to gain insights into the complex relationships between migration, employment, and income levels for a sample of 50 EDA designated counties. It also develops the foundations for procedures aimed at yield- ing as to autonomous changes required, in either employ- ment or migration, to bring about prescribed changes in the local unemployment rate or income levels. The study concludes that in-migration tends to increase median family income and outmigration tends to reduce it. Further, it finds that migration and employment change appear to affect and be affected by each other. However, neither migration nor employment appears to be strongly influenced by increases in income. The report believes that through the use of a system of three multiple regression equations developed simultaneously for the study, some initial insights can be gained regarding the multiplier effects of migration and employment which would be very useful for policy and program purposes. Finally, the study suggests some further extensions of this initial effort to both expand and verify its findings. 423 An Analysis of Recent Survey Data on the Economic Development Administration's Growth Center Policy David F. Darwent University of California, Berkeley March 1973 36 pp COM-74-10860 This paper analyzes the data of the two Chilton Re- search studies dealing with multiple job shifts. Since one of these surveys dealt with multiple job shifts in growth areas, this paper briefly discusses some recent findings and analyses dealing with growth center and growth pole theory. In attempting to compare the data of the two studies, the paper notes the many differences between the data, making analytical comparisons between the two studies— difficult, if not impossible. Several general com- parisons are made but these are highly qualified. The paper suggests several questions which need further research. 424 Methodology for the Evaluation of the Success of Public Works Programs Decisions Studies Group March 1969 33 pp COM-74-10863 This report presents two approaches that can be used to measure the success of public works projects in fostering economic development in depressed areas of the country. One approach would be used to evaluate the immediate or short-term results produced by such proj- ects. The other would make it possible to evaluate the long-term results. Under the first methodology new or ex- panded businesses would be identified in areas where EDA projects have been completed or nearly completed. A series of questions are provided which would be asked of representatives of these businesses to elicit information which would show the extent to which their decision to build or expand was directly or indirectly influenced by the existence of an EDA project or projects. The second metho- dology provides for the objective selection of leading indi- cators and use of these indicators to detect statistically significant changes in the economy of an area over time. These indicators could be used to evaluate present economic development successes or failures of areas as well as to predict future successes or failures. The report specified the data sources for both the short-term, and long-term methodology. Under the long-term methodology data sources for such indicators as per capita income, median family income, unemployment, population, migra- tion rates and proxy indicators are detailed. 425 An Evaluation of EDA Training Related Projects Findings- Analysis— Conclusion— Recommendations Development Associates Inc. August 1971 Vol. 1,88 pp; Vol. II, 135 pp COM-74-10942 This report presents the results of a study of EDA funded training projects. It describes the fifteen projects selected for evaluation, measures their impact and de- velops recommendations based on empirical data for use in future EDA funded projects. The basic methodology used by the analysts was the on-site personal interview. The study uses two basic approaches in analyzing the data. It cross compares project impact and performance and rank orders the trainee impact measures. The study concludes that a substantial number of projects studied resulted in significant income increases for a substantial number of EDA's target population. It, also, identifies certain positive and negative characteristics of projects which possess the potential to predicate the eventual success or failure of a project. The study contains a number of recommendations intended to exploit the ad- vantageous factors and correct the problem areas. The study finds that EDA has a special role to play in the Federal Government's portfolio of manpower programs which needs to be recognized and exploited. Volume II contains descriptions and illustrations of the data collec- tion instruments used to make the study and detailed narratives on each project evaluated. 426 Improving Business Loan Effectiveness EBS Management Consultants Inc. November 1966 56 pp PB-178969 Using a sample of 40 Area Redevelopment Admini- stration (ARA) industrial and commercial loan projects, the consultant evaluated the effectiveness and success of the EDA business loan program using certain defined criteria to measure success or failure. He makes a number of recommendations with respect to loan application de- velopment, loan processing and loan program administra- tion policies and procedures. The consultant also urges that EDA participate more actively and directly in the loan throughout its entire life. In addition, to improve 84 the selection of appropriate projects and increase the chances of their success, he emphasizes that EDA should augment its staff in Washington and in the field offices, improve its internal management control system, es- tablish a program of management assistance through functional specialists and qualified management consul- tants available and used from the inception of the loan project. 427 A Methodology for Evaluation of the Economic Development Administration's Public Works Program EBS Management Consultants Inc. May 1969 130 pp PB-189676 This study describes in detail a methodology to be used for the evaluation of public facility projects financed under Title I of the Public Works and Economic Develop- ment Act of 1965. The methodology is designed to be used in evaluating projects completed in the past as well as to establish a methodology for future evaluations. The meth- odology combines both a quantitative and qualitative ap- proach. In addition, if subjective analysis is used because of the complexity and subtlety of the evaluation factors, procedures are specified for the quantification of such fac- tors. The methodology provides for the collection of data on the following elements: historical project background, service impact, direct job impact, indirect job impact, structural impact, area growth rate impact and economic development process impact. Data questionnaires to use for each of these elements are specified together with the sources of information. Case studies illustrating the methodology are included as an appendix to the report. 428 An Evaluation of Economic Development Administration Programs in Hawaii University of Hawaii January 1971 41 pp The original purpose of this study was an attempt to evaluate the overall program impact of various EDA proj- ects within the designated county of Hawaii. The evalua- tion was to be made in terms of job and income impact, economic structure impact, development process impact, private capital investment impact and public service im- pact. However, in-depth field evaluation that were con- ducted during the study uncovered no direct interrelation- ships between projects. Consequently, the analysis focuses on the individual projects and their various impacts on the local economy. However, based on these evaluations of individual projects, the study details that they general- ly have produced little job creation or income impact; that private capital investment has been minimal, being evidenced in one project only; that the planning grants program has had some effect in fostering the beginning stirrings of a development process; and that several of the public works and technical assistance projects have produced some positive results in improving public serv- ices. The study contains a brief description of the Hawaii County economic characteristics, needs and back- ground, synopsis, purpose and impact results of each of the eight EDA funded projects. It also lists a bibliography that was used during the study. 429 An Analysis of Economic Activities in Six Cities Roy Littlejohn Associates Incorporated April 1970 238 pp COM-71-00930 This report evaluates Economic Development Adminis- tration activity in New York, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Oakland and Providence-Pawtucket. The report is based on in-depth case studies covering EDA's activities in these six urban areas. The case studies focus on groups of projects with a view toward ascertaining the EDA im- pact in these urban areas. Benefits to applicants, cities and residents are evaluated. Project objectives, structure and results achieved are described and analyzed for each of the cities individually. A cross-city analysis is also made which summarizes and integrates the individual case study findings. The report finds that the situation in each city is unique and therefore each requires a specially tailored approach. Such a strategy was found to be lack- ing. Generally EDA's efforts in the urban areas studied were found to be deficient in a number of cases speci- fically in its failure to insure both intra- and inter-organi- zational coordination of effort and failure to precisely state its goals in each of the cities involved. 430 Study Procedures for Improving Effectiveness of Business Loans Maryland Affiliate Corporation July 1969 14 pp COM-73-11670 This report compares EDA loan procedures to those of commercial banks, on both an operating and a functional basis. While some similarities are identified, there are many more differences which put EDA at a disadvantage. The report contains a number of recommendations to cor- rect this situation: a greater decentralization of authority to the field; territorial relocation of field offices to increase their cooperation with private banks as well as other Fed- eral agencies; combination of loan processing and adminis- tration functions in the Office of Business Development; establishment of a committee system for Washington loan approvals; simplification of files to make them similar to commercial bank credit files; tighter credit and collateral appraisals; several approaches to bring EDA lending pro- gram closer to "hard loan lines"; broadening the outreach of the collateral protection and liquidation section; and greater cooperation with commercial banks. 431 Economic Development and the Economic Development Process in the Small Community Mathematica August 1970 146 pp COM-74-10943 This study was undertaken to assist EDA in the im- provement of its ability to maximize the contribution made by its limited budget to the economic development of under-developed communities. The study addresses the 85 general question of economic development as suggested and a distinction is drawn between development and growth. The attainability of economic development without substantial population growth in a small town is consid- ered at some length. A proposed Economic Development Profile as a de- vice for reporting compilation of information about a community is discussed in detail. The study also dis- cusses the economic development process as related to small communities. The process is defined, its major dimensions are considered, and the evolution of the proc- ess over time is discussed. A proposed Economic Devel- opment Process Profile is presented, each factor included therein is briefly discussed, and the interpretation of the information included in the Profile is considered. Finally, the study presents a number of recommenda- tions with respect to an optimum policy for EDA to follow in its relationships with the development processes of small communities. These include expansion of EDA's edu- cational and advisory services to depressed communities to foster the economic development process and that it use the Economic Development Districts as agents, for such services. A recommendation is also made concerning the timing of public works and business loans to insure their most effective phasing in the development process. 432 Evaluation of Economic Development District and Area Planning Programs Robert Nathan Associates December 1969 Vol. 1, 104 pp; Vol. 11,336 pp PB-18967; PB-189672 The purpose of the evaluation is to assess the con- tributions that could be credited to planning grants and the activities carried out under them in the eco- nomic development of the districts and areas. Techniques are also described which can be used to make future evaluations and analyses of the planning program. The re- sultants of the evaluations are contained in two volumes. Volume I summarizes the findings and conclusions of the evaluation together with evaluation criteria and guides for field interviews that were used to conduct the study. Volume II contains 17 district and 6 area case studies. The study concludes that, despite certain deficiencies such as incompleteness of planning, narrowness in proj- ect development and failure to acquire growth indus- tries, the development organizations in the districts and areas are producing substantial resultants. Hence, plan- ning grants, which are used to support such organizations, are proving their value. The evaluation estimates that, at the very minimum, planning grants have increased the incomes of districts and areas by ten times their cost. 433 Analysis of the Costs of EDA's Business Development Program Joseph Noah April 1972 34 pp This report provides an analysis of the actual and pro- jected costs of EDA's Business Development Program from its inception through June 30, 1970. The methodology used establishes that the cost of EDA's business loan program is the difference between total disbursements and total receipts related to the program. The study examines various cost categories such as opportunity costs, incre- mental and fixed costs, joint costs, administrative costs and price level changes. The study determines that the two major cost categories are the opportunity costs of foregoing investments and the administrative costs of the program. These are offset by receipts resulting from principal repayments on loans and interest payments. The study also includes estimates of future costs which will be incurred because of obligations made on or before June 30, 1970. The study concludes that total opportunity costs for loans represent about three-fourths of the total costs of the program. The remaining one-fourth costs are for administration (about one-third of these costs are at- tributable to the administration of loans carried over from ARA). The study states that administrative costs are primarily concentrated in Washington due to the centra- lized administration of the program. Finally, the report concludes that costs of administering area offices do not vary significantly from one office to another. 434 Analysis of the Cost's of EDA's Public Works Program Joseph Noah July 1971 40 pp COM-74-10972 This report is directed toward determining the actual and projected costs of EDA's Public Works Program from its inception through June 30, 1970. The methodological approach used was to determine the difference between total disbursements and total receipts related to the program to establish the cost of the program. The study examines various cost categories such as opportunity costs, incremental and fixed costs, joint costs, adminis- trative costs and price level changes. It determines that the two major cost categories applicable to the public works program are the opportunity costs of foregoing alternative investments and the administrative costs of the program. These are offset by receipts resulting from prin- cipal repayments on public works loans and interest payments. The study also includes estimates of the future costs which will be incurred because of obligations made on or before June 30, 1970. This study concludes that grants cost almost twice as much as loans; that total oppor- tunity costs for grants and loans represent the over- whelming portion of the total costs with only a nominal amount being attributable to administration; that future administrative costs will increase considerably as a ratio of total costs; that grants represent the major portion of total public works obligations; that the major portion of these funds remain undisbursed; that costs of administer- ing the area offices are slightly more than one-half of the total administrative costs, including future costs; and that the Atlantic area office is the most expensive to administer with the other area offices being generally at an equal level. 435 Economic Development Programs in Eight Non-Urban Areas Planning Research Corporation June 1970 71 PP 86 This study is an evaluation of the impact of EDA in selected depressed areas in terms of EDA objectives. It analyzes the extent to which the procedures and ap- proaches followed by EDA and the Economic Development Districts (EDD) and Redevelopment Area (RA) organizations increase or decrease this impact. The study is based on a field interview survey of development impacts in eight non-urban areas selected in advance by EDA. Four of these were EDD's and four were RA's. The survey analyzed five output elements— employment, capital investment, services generated, planning and community attitudes, and involvement. The study relies almost completely on non-quantitative interview data. The study cites a number of similar re- sults achieved by both EDD's and RA's in the five output categories but these results were achieved only in those instances where the economic development process was underway in a positive fashion. Positive results were achieved in such cases in all categories except planning. The study, therefore, urges that EDA support the fostering of the development process more vigorously. It also em- phasizes that greater attention needs to be given to the development districts as effective agents for producing and nurturing economic development in depressed areas. The study concludes that the utility of EDA programs- public works, business loans, technical assistance and planning grants — is impressive in meeting the needs of these areas even though their experience was limited at the time of the study. 437 Evaluation and Analysis of Area Requalification Experiences Regional Economic Development Institute Inc. January 1970 105 pp COM-74-10840 This study examines counties which have been re- qualified for EDA assistance after having been de-des- ignated. The report covers 83 cases of such requalifica- tions. It cites a number of problems underlying such requalifications. It concludes, for example, that the data used to measure the rate of unemployment is inaccurate in many instances and that the degree of precision re- quired by criterion (then existing) is difficult to achieve. Furthermore, the report points out the qualification cri- teria which contain elements that are conducive to occur- rences of unnecessary requalification. The study recom- mends that greater accuracy in the unemployment data be sought; the anticipated unemployment movement be in- vestigated in each county facing termination; the fixed un- employment criterion such as the 6% rate be replaced with a more flexible approach; Title I provisions be merged with those of Title IV; the population loss criterion be absorbed within the low family income criterion and the income standard be raised and that regional standards be used to the extent possible instead of national standards. 436 EDA Business Loans: A Policy Analysis of Successful Loans Regional Economic Development Institute Inc. November 1970 49 pp COM-74-10973 Using data previously conducted by consultant con- tractors as well as in-house, this study attempts to answer three basic questions: (1) Has the business loan program really made an identifiable difference to new and existing firms, to minority employment, and in income differentials? (2) Has the loan program been carried out efficiently? (3) Have the loans been equally effective with respect to type of recipient, size of loan and regional location of recipient? Fifty-three firms are used in the evaluation. They are classified by size of loan and type of firm (new or existing). The firms are further cross classified by their regional location. The study finds that small loans to existing firms are most productive in generating employ- ment at least cost. In terms of regional efficiency the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic were found to be superior. Income differences are relatively minor in terms of new and existing firms. However, they were substantial when considered in terms of loan size. Large loans to existing firms produced the highest impact ratio; EDA assisted firms generally pay higher wages than the average for the areas in all except Mid-Eastern and Western areas. Black employment impact, though difficult to determine with any degree of accuracy, was found to be most positive in newly established firms that received large loans. In terms of regions, black employment impact had its greatest effect in the Southeast and Western regions. The report contains an appendix which has all of the tables used in the various computations. 438 Developments in Counties of Thirteen Southern States With Respect to EDA/ARA Program Efforts Thomas A. Till September 1973 87 pp This study analyzes EDA/ARA impact in various desig- nated counties in thirteen southern states by comparing the economic progress of those counties which were as- sisted by EDA/ARA against the progress of counties having similar economic conditions but which were not assisted by EDA/ARA. The study concludes that EDA assisted coun- ties have performed in a generally superior way in the 1960's and even though it is difficult to conclude positively that such performance was due to EDA assistance, the data are consistent with the hypothesis that EDA has had a positive impact in these counties in terms of their in- dustrialization, though not on their poverty situation. Various analytical techniques such as discriminant an- alysis and partial regression analysis were used in the study. 439 Guidelines for the Evaluation of Business Loans Wolf Management Services October 1967 219 pp COM-74-10978 A manual developed to be used by operating business loan personnel. The manual codified and systematized existing EDA guidelines for determining the eligibility of loan applications based on various constraints and assess- 87 ing the economic impact proposed projects. In addition, the manual contains a detailed description of the policies and techniques to be used to evaluate the viability of business loan projects. PROGRAM TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES 440 Predicting Best with Imperfect Data William Alonso University of California, Berkeley July 1968 248-255 pp COM-74-10023 The author raises the issue of the effect of errors and their propagation in models for prediction and suggests some strategies for the selection and construction of models which are intended for applied work. The essence of his argument is that the rise of sophisticated models is not always best in applied work, and that the design of the model must take into account the accuracy of the data on which it will be run. 441 The Quality of Data and The Choice and Design of Predictive Models William Alonso University of California, Berkeley December 1967 19 pp COM-74-10637 In this paper the author raises the issue of the effect on models for prediction of errors and their propagation, and suggests some strategies for the selection and con- struction of models which are intended for applied work. The gist of his argument is that the use of sophisticated models is not always best in applied work, and that the design of the model must take into account the accuracy of the data on which it will be run. There exists the possibility, which should be explored, that some of our intellectually most satisfying models should be pursued as fundamental scientific research, but that simpler and more robust models should be used in practice. 442 A Suggested Impact Analysis Technique For Small Areas Ernest R. Bonner and Vernon L. Fahle Regional Economic Development Institute March 1966 32 pp COM-74-10655 This paper contends major employers in any small urban area are the "movers" of that area's economy and will affect their expected growth. Contributions to a region's growth by minor sectors will be small and the effect of disregarding their influence will be negligible. Therefore, the primary concern of a planner is with the effects on the local economy of a change in the final demand for production in major sectors. An impact analy- sis technique is suggested with recommendations for future usefulness without the need of quantities of costly data collection. 443 A Computer Program for Optimal Regression Analysis David E. Boyce, Andre Farhi and Ralph Weischedel Regional Science Research Institute February 1969 27 pp w/interim supplement replacing Section IV of Discussion Paper No. 28 COM-73-11687 This paper is a progress report on the development of the optimal regression program and consists of three sections: (1) a description of the optimal regression analy- sis; (2) the instructions for use of the computer program; (3) an addendum on alternative statistical estimates of the multiple correlation coefficient. 444 Optimal Decision Rules For Models With Unknown Coefficients Elizabeth S. Chase Radcliffe College June 1969 73 pp COM-73-11991/9 The contribution of this thesis is in two separate areas. One is the development and extension of a notation to deal neatly with mathematical operations on and deriva- tives of matrices. The other is the extension of the linear decision model to handle unknown parameters. This is done in three stages, representing different ways of model- ing the existence of unknown parameters. The first stage involves a straightforward generalization of the work of Aoki (1) and MacRae (7) to include random parameters and exogenous variables. The second stage goes somewhat beyond this to discuss the role of estimation by describ- ing how current observations may be used to improve the decision rule. The ability to experiment within the context of decision-making is treated in the third stage where an approximation is formulated which shows the relationship between the estimation and control aspects of the problem, and produces price and value quantities on which to base the optimal decision rule. 445 A Review of the Role of Demographic Variables in Macro-Econometric Models Ronald K. H. Choy University of California, Berkeley August 1967 46 pp COM-74-10669 In this paper the relationships used in national eco- nometric models are reviewed and a classification scheme for demographic and economic variables is presented. On the demographic side, equations for births, deaths, total population, total households, and labor force can be found in the literature. Among the economic variables, only consumption expenditures and investment in resi- dential construction have been closely tied to demo- graphic variables. 88 446 Regional Models for Program Budgeting Kong Chu and William A. Schaffer Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 3 March 1968 15 pp COM-74-10434 This paper reviews briefly the literature of regional science with particular emphasis on the potential of using econometric models and program budgeting as tools in planning regional development. The authors stress the role of the planner in regional development, the merits and drawbacks of the existing types of budgeting systems, and the criticisms underlying the use of models in plan- ning. They finally introduce a simple multiplier-accelerator model showing how Federal expenditures may affect regional development and how the impact of various pro- grams of expenditures may be simulated. 447 Metropolitan Area Classification— A Review of Current Practice, Criticisms of it, and Proposed Alternatives P. G. Goheen University of Chicago July 1966 30 pp COM-74-10634 This background paper is concerned with a review of past and current practices (to the 1960 decennial Census) by the Bureau of the Census in defining a metropolitan area. Review of criticisms and comments concerning the criteria used to define the metropolitan character of the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area is presented. Alter- native proposals for a new classification system are ex- amined. These are seen as attempts to bring into focus the social and economic aspects of what researchers consider to be a viable and useful concept of the metropolitan area. Alternative classification systems include: functional specialization, functional economic areas, and the urban field. The author concludes that there is much dissatis- faction with the present (1966) definitional practice, yet there is little agreement among the many alternatives proposed. A period of thinking and re-evaluation is in order to establish what should be retained in present practice, and what desirable commonalities of the alter- native proposals should be put into practice. 448 Structure and Rationale of Simulation Model for the Measurement of Impacts of Employment Increase Sally Streiter CONSAD Research Corporation June 1968 21 PP COM-74-10766 This paper is a by-product of EDA's public investment project entitled "A Study of the Effects of Public Invest- ment." It describes the structure and rationale of a simulation model for the measurement of impacts of em- ployment increase. It consists of four sections, namely: (1) labor force and unemployment-theoretical effects, (2) data collection, (3) results of initial regression runs for labor force and unemployment, and (4) development of a simulation model for employment and labor force change. There are three factors such as (1) migration, (2) changes in labor force participation, and (3) commuting to and from other labor markets which curtail the employment effect (i.e., an increase in employment should produce an equal change in unemployment) in an open area. The time series data provides no explanation of the individual effects of these three factors for any given area, and it is essential to estimate their effects on the labor force in an area. This work is done by using accumulated knowl- edge from previous studies to develop a rational set of variables to predict total labor force change. Section 3 shows the manipulation of data and results of this study. 449 Selected Indices of Industrial Characteristics for U.S. SMSA's Robert C. Douglas Regional Science Research Institute December 1967 30 pp plus Appendix 153 pp PB-184535 The purpose of this paper is to devise summary indices and use these to describe variations in industrial structure and mix for the 67 largest U.S. Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) for 1963. The presentation of this material is divided into three parts. The first part contains a description of the account- ing system used in the 1963 Census of Manufactures. The second part contains a description of the methods used in constructing the indices. The final part contains tables. 450 Growth and Labor Characteristics of Manufacturing Industries Economic Associates Inc. March 1972 99 pp COM-74-50017 This study is designed as a technical tool and research aid for those working in the industrial development field. Specifically, the study lists manufacturing industries ranked by growth trends and provides supporting informa- tion on labor characteristics. Its purpose is to provide a starting point for individuals and agencies in their efforts to locate and attract new industry to redevelopment areas. The primary emphasis of this study is (1) on industry growth characteristics, and (2) on labor characteristics. 451 The Measurement of Industrial Capacity George Perazich, et al Economic Associates Inc. October 1966 49 pp PB-176456 The principal objectives of the evidence and analysis presented in this study are: (a) to develop a set of defini- tions of "capacity," "efficient capacity," and certain other terms appearing in Section 702 of the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965; (b) to identify data sources suitable for measurement of industrial capacity; 89 and; (c) through a review and analysis of current and earlier work in this field of economic research, to suggest appropriate methodologies for estimating both total capac- ity and efficient capacity. The report is divided into three principal sections,- the first is the introduction and summary. The second section deals with the principal definitions and concepts. In the third section, specific data sources are identified and several methodologies for measuring industrial capacity developed and illustrated by case studies. 452 An Evaluation of the Richter Econometric Model of the Coastal Plains States Alfred J. Field Jr. University of North Carolina 1973 25 pp COM-74-10558 An evaluation of the possibilities of adapting and extending the Richter Economic Model of the Coastal Plains States for use in the analysis of alternative patterns of development, and as a foundation upon which to build a policy model. The evaluation demon- strates that it would be of very little use to a policy maker concerned with studying the impact of expanding forestry, fishing, mining, and tourism on the economic and environmental milieu of North and South Carolina and Georgia. This conclusion results from the failure of the variables used in the model to adequately explain the economic ties between the sectors in the region and the line of causality involved in likely policy decision making situations. 454 Shift and Share Projections Revisited Charles F. Floyd and C. F. Sirmans University of Georgia 24 pp COM-74-10220 The purpose of this paper is to examine H. James Brown's article in the Journal of Regional Science which asserted that the regional share component is unstable and, therefore, the shift and share model is not useful as a framework for regional employment projections. He con- cluded that his results "raise substantial doubts even about the ability of the technique to describe economic growth." Brown based his conclusions upon analysis of Census of Manufactures data for 16 non-randomly selected SMSA's. The author uses more representative and com- plete data. 455 The Estimation of Economic-Base Multipliers Thomas Hammer Regional Science Research Institute February 1968 42 pp COM-73-12027 The original purpose of the research described in this paper was to investigate possible differences between "economic-base multipliers" for the various manufactur- ing industries. The focus of discussion pertained to the multipliers for other sectors and to the general applica- bility of the economic-base model itself. 453 Employment and Income Estimates in Models and Analyses The Place of Work - Place of Residence Problem Charles F. Floyd University of Georgia April 1969 21 PP COM-73-12024 This paper calls attention to the persistent problem in data gathering of employment and earnings figures not adjusted to allow for migration and commuting factors. The author makes a short examination of five com- monly employed sources of data, Census, BLS, Ul, Social Security, and OBE personal income estimates, and points up bias prevalent in each, particularly with reference to place of work-place of residence problems. To illustrate the extent of the problem and the seri- ousness of its effect on reliability of data, Floyd supplies population, employment and earnings data on the north- west portion of Georgia, derived from OBE, Census and employer information. Data gathering deficiencies com- bined with the small size of the counties and the signi- ficant amount of commuting among them appear to give credit to the county of employment for a worker who is fully employed, while place of residence is credited with his unemployed status. The author concludes that if models of small area economies are to be utilized in the formulation of public policy, great care must be exercised in adjusting data for the place of work-place of residence bias. 456 State and County Projections, a Progress Report of the Regional Forecasting Project Curtis C. Harris Jr. University of Maryland January 1969 75 pp plus Appendix COM-74-10306 This report describes the methodology and presents some of the results of the Regional Forecasting Project of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Univer- sity of Maryland. The author shows how his model estimates state and county projections of employment by industry sectors, unemployment, labor force, and population. The employ- ment projections are based on extensions of historical industry locational patterns, as formulated in the model. 457 Information Systems for Regional Development: Tourism Accounts Barclay G. Jones Cornell University 1969 12 PP COM-74-10839 There are at least three sub-cultures common to the whole field of government related information systems at all levels. These are administration, production, and re- search. Administration is concerned primarily with auto- 90 mated administrative details that are sometimes referred to as systems maintenance (billing, fee collecting, ac- counting, taxes, etc.). Production is concerned with the performance of services that represents the function of the organization and its reasons for existence. This is related primarily to the production of governmental goods, services, largely information storage on deeds, register- ed papers, licenses, permits, etc. The research sub- culture is concerned with another form of abstraction. Information systems and analytical routines at this level deal with guiding, directing, evaluating and developing programs, operations, and policies. The author uses a specific example from a recent research project entitled, "A Model for Developing a Set of Tourism, Travel, and Recreation Accounts for a Region," to illustrate the role of the research function. Differentiation, or societal complexity — the ability to understand, produce the desired changes of depressed areas, and use information — seems to be a key institu- tional variable. An initial question is whether it is some- thing different from earlier notions of division of labor or the hierarchy of central place functions, and, if so, how it can be measured. Then, if differentiation exists as an independent variable, is it relevant to economic develop- ment? Thus empirical research must proceed in two steps: (1) Measure differentiation and compare it with other measures of development and structure, and (2) determine whether differentiation is useful in explaining variation in development between different communities. If differ- entiation emerges successfully from these two tests, then development policies may consider strategies which ex- plicitly affect a community's differentiation. 458 The Use of Factor Analysis to Salvage Poor Guttman Scales: Can It Really Work Brian D. Kayser (University of Akron) University of Wisconsin 1973 18 pp COM-74-10553 This paper provides an empirical example of the use of factor analysis with Guttman scaling. The data is based upon a panel of high school students who responded to theoretical Guttman scale items over a period of time (1967-69). Because Guttman scales have low inter-item correlations, a clear pattern of factors among the items was not delineated. The findings suggest that the use of factor analysis with Guttman scales is not a desirable technique of scaling, and that a better approach would be the single use of factor analysis to help construct single factor scales of greater length. 459 Effects of Mass Layoffs on Local Unemployment Rates Richard W. Kirschner Kirschner Associates December 1967 109 pp AD-835541 The study develops a relatively simple method for analyzing designation requests based on an analysis of economic factors involved in the labor market adjustment process following layoffs. A model is developed relating layoff impacts to variables selected to reflect conditions of labor supply and demand in the local labor market. The model is tested by application to 92 layoffs in the private sector and to 13 military installation closures and force reductions. The empirical results yield methods for projecting the local unemployment rate in relation to the national unemployment rate by use of readily obtainable data. 460 A Technique For Measuring Differentiation Douglass B. Lee Jr. Cornell University 1969 36 pp COM-74-10234 461 Linear Decision and Control C. Duncan MacRae Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 1969 11 PP COM-74-10776 An econometric equation system for explaining linear decision problems is presented in this paper. 462 A Multi-Region Multi-Sector Model of Equilibrium Growth Koichi Mera Harvard University November 1967 46 pp COM-74-10651 This paper extends the analysis of a competitive general equilibrium derived for a static multi-sector, multi-region- al system to the intertemporal framework. Uniqueness and equilibrium conditions are discussed. The primary ob- jectives are to present equilibrium equations explicitly for a finite time horizon, and a computational algorithm for deriving a numerical solution of equilibrium. The paper discusses the relationship between the equilibrium growth path for a finite time horizon with that of an infinite time horizon. It presents a method for evaluating terminal capital stocks. 463 Transformation Analysis Between Aggregate Efficiency and Interregional Equity: A Static Analysis Koichi Mera Harvard University September 1966 23 pp This paper presents a methodology for deriving the transformation between aggregate efficiency and inter- regional equity given that regional production functions are known. The cases of fixed coefficient and Cobb- Douglas production functions are examined. The paper sketches out a profile and tabulates the transformations under alternative production conditions and alternative assumptions about the feasibility of factor redistribution. The analysis is performed within the framework of a static system. 91 464 Univariate and Multivariate Log-Linear and Logistic Models Marc Nerlove and S. James Press The RAND Corporation December 1973 134 pp COM-74-10748 The objective of this study is to make inferences about relationships which determine jointly dependent qualita- tive variables (i. e., variables that are both categorical and unordered). The report consists of five sections and an appendix. Section I provides a general review of the single qualitative variable problem. Section II treats the dichotomous single qualitative variable, and Section III discusses the polytomous single qualitative variable. Section IV generalizes the known results for a single qualitative variable ("univariate") to some new results for several jointly dependent qualitative variables ("multi- variate") and provides a general model for the analysis of covariance ("ANOCOVA") for qualitative variables. Section V is devoted to empirical applications of the theory involving several socioeconomic problems. The em- pirical investigations presented in this report suggest several methodological conclusions, which may be applic- able only to data sets with certain similar features. 465 An Econometric Model of the Coastal Plains States Charles Richter University of North Carolina 1973 49 pp COM-73-11989 collections, GNP, government employment, and military procurement. 467 Some Limitations of Regional Econometric Models Charles Richter University of North Carolina 1973 9 pp COM-74-10769 This paper attempts to distinguish some of the theore- tical and statistical problems inherent in the construction of econometric models. Part One of the paper discusses econometric models in general, while Part Two examines regional models. Among the limitations mentioned are the problem of specifying the true relationships among economic variables, difficulties with autocorrelation and collinearity, and the possibility of structural changes in the economic system during the time period covered. Additional limitiations of the regional econometric model are the lack of accurate regional data, the relative open- ness of regions with respect to trade, and the problem of defining the boundaries delineating regions. 468 Nonsurvey Techniques For Constructing Regional Interindustry Models William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 9 November 1968 77 pp COM-74-10976 This paper describes the theory and calibration of the Coastal Plains States econometric model, its sources of data and data limitations, and provides an evaluation of regional econometric models in general. The model, developed by Charles Richter, covers all of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. It spans a 19 year period from 1949-1967 and measures linkages between regional and national variables (the interrelationships are meas- ured by regression analysis). Consisting of equations, the model contains regional data for personal income, em- ployment, wages and salaries, and gross product dis- aggregated by nine industrial sectors. It also includes equations for migration, and saving. 466 Simulations of the Econometric Model of the Coastal Plains States Charles Richter University of North Carolina 1973 68 pp COM-74-10773 This paper reports on the results of simulations of the Coastal Plains States econometric model developed by Charles Richter. The simulations were achieved through the use of a modified version of the Seidel algorithm. Two types of forecasts were prepared: "ex-post" forecasts were obtained for 1950-1967, and "ex-ante" forecasts for 1968-1980. Among the variables included were, wages and salaries in the government and military, state income tax Most of the regional input-output models are con- structed by expensive direct-survey methods. This paper attempts to re-examine the estimating procedures of the past in search for an inexpensive technique to use. Using the national input-output table as a base, the authors estimate the regional interindustry transactions. The pro- cedures are applied to estimate transactions for the State of Washington in 1963; these estimates are compared with a survey-based table of the State and are subsequently tested. Methodologically, they have chosen three types of techniques: (1) the location-quotient procedure, with three variations: the conventional location quotient, the pur- chases-only location quotient, and the cross-industry location quotient; (2) the commodity-balance or supply- demand pool procedures; and (3) an iterative simulation procedure. They build their discussions around a static, open, and descriptive model covering the merits and de- fects of the above techniques. Finally, they have devel- oped a device embodying several of the above listed tech- niques but employing an iterative procedure to redistrib- ute local sales allocated initially on the national sales pattern. 469 Tests and Modifications of Regional Inter-industry Models Constructed from Secondary Data William A. Schaffer and Kong Chu Georgia Institute of Technology Discussion Paper No. 13 24 pp COM-74-10883 92 This paper is the second attempt in investigating non- survey techniques. It modifies the original aggregation procedures outlined in the "Nonsurvey Techniques for Constructing Regional Interindustry Models" by the same authors in November 1968. It examines the results through statistical tests of tables constructed for three Western States and introduces additional correction procedures for improving raw estimates of inter-industry transactions. The authors only use the transactions table of the 1958 input-output study and gross purchases by industries in the States of Washington, Utah, and New Mexico as inputs. They perform three sets of tests: (1) the aggregat- ing and weighting procedures against the total-require- ments table for New Mexico; (2) the descriptive powers of the transactions involving direct-requirements tables, and (3) the ability of the assumed models to produce new an- alytical tools deriving from regional interindustry models. Finally, they adjust the estimated coefficients in two ways, by applying mean differences derived from experience with other States and by using similarly obtained regres- sion parameters. 470 Social Status and Personality Factors in Predicting Interviewer Performance Gene F. Summers, (University of Wisconsin) and E. M. Beck, (University of Colorado) University of Wisconsin January 1973 13 pp COM-74-10564 This paper presents the results of a multiple regression analysis of the predictive power of interviewer social status and personality factors with four interviewer per- formance criteria. Personality factors are found to be more predictive of performance than social status. The obvious implication is that the probability of hiring quality interviewers can be improved by collecting and evaluating the social status and personality characteris- tics of applicants. REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 472 Research in Regional Development Processes and Policies Brian Berry University of Chicago July 1973 311 pp In this study, materials are provided not only on the nature and growth of the nation's economic life, but also on new growth impulses and directions, and trends in urban-regional development. Chapter 1 reviews the theory of urban-regional growth, and in particular the theoretical basis of growth center strategies: hierarchical diffusion and spread effects within urban systems. Evidence is offered that the classical economic theory is wanting in the United States today, and that new concepts of metropolitan growth and the nature of filtering and spread are required to comprehend the changing nature of re- gional development. Chapter 2 asks whether the new forces of metropolitan growth can be harnessed to chan- nel development into areas that are lagging behind the nation in incomes, employment opportunities and the maintenance of a satisfactory way of life. The chapter concerns itself with the way in which a research strategy subsequently applied on a nationwide basis was worked out in two cases, the urban-rural growth strategy for Appalachia and a set of growth center recommendations for the Upper Great Lakes Region. Chapter 3 outlines the nationwide application, and the full results are presented in several voluminous appendices. Chapter 4 analyzes re- sults and assesses a variety of programmatic proposals for growth center strategies made to the Congress by USDA, and analyzes program evaluation by EDA of its growth center policies. In conclusion, the book outlines an agenda for future research and policy development. 471 A Survey of Education in Regional Science Charles A. Webb Georgia Institute of Techonology Discussion Paper No. 7 September 1968 19 pp COM-74-10944/1 This study traces briefly the development of regional science with particular emphasis on the educational field. It examines education in the inter-disciplinary field of regional science through a questionnaire sent to members of the Regional Science Association. The purpose of this survey is to sketch the characteristics of institutions and the backgrounds of educators involved in teaching region- al science and construct profiles to typical courses. The preliminary survey results indicate that respondents offer three basic types of courses, namely: (1) economic geo- graphy, (2) regional economics or economics of location, and (3) regional science techniques or principles of regional science. The teaching of the principles of region- al science emphasizes analytical tools from many related fields and clarifies the role of regional science as an individual discipline. 473 Regional Development: A Partial Test Paul R. Eberts and James P. Doyle, Cornell University Robert L. Carroll, University of Cincinnati August 1966 28 pp COM-74-10772 This paper attempts to examine certain aspects of models for regional development, and to bring data to bear on a sample of New York State counties on socio- logical ramifications of the problems of regional develop- ment. The authors claim that previous research has not specified many of the issues denoted by the term, "region- al development." They bring out several definitional pro- blems such as (1) the concept of development something akin in an increase in "gross national product," (2) the concept of a nodal region, and (3) the policy aspect of regional development for clarification. Since the concept of regional development is so vague, and since it is less useful in contrast to the purely economic models of re- gional development, they present a more sociological model of regional development in this study. What does regional development mean sociologically? The answer is based on the framework of structural requisites of a social system. The conclusion is that they have tapped a 93 theoretically based technique of differentiating better developed from less well-developed regional areas on the basis of which predictions can be made about further development in these areas. 474 The Multiple-Objective Problem and Regional Development Policy Ben Fisher University of North Carolina January 1969 40 pp There exists a need for developing methods for ration- ally translating the multiple objectives stated in public policy into plans and programs that reflect the breadth of those objectives upon implementation. This paper ex- plores the problem of creating such methods, what the author calls the "multiple-objective problem," as it re- lates to regional development policy. The paper is divided into three parts. Part One at- tempts to categorize a number of objectives, such as self-sufficiency, environmental quality, or political or eco- nomic power, which are identified with the development programs of different countries during different periods of history. Part Two examines the Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1965 and the Appalachian Program which emerged from it. Part Three contains a pro- posal for a "competition-for-benefit" model for translating multiple objectives into decision criteria, followed by a brief discussion of the implications of such a model as the basis for a national (urban and regional) develop- ment policy. 475 Local Employment Multipliers and Regional Growth John L Gardner University of Chicago June 1973 39 pp COM-74-10562 One reason for the lack of development and application of economic base concepts relates to the conceptual problems of defining and measuring basic and service components of local employment. Rather than entering the thicket of ambiguities and approximations which have generally characterized attempts to define "basic" and "service" employment directly, this paper begins its devel- opment of theory by exploring relationships between com- ponents of regional income, which have precise definitions, and about whose properties and behavior some economic theory already exists. Hypotheses about the behavior of various employment ratios are deduced from the income theory and subjected to empirical test. The results are then used to evaluate the correctness of postulates in- itially formulated in terms of components of regional in- come. The author used a computer print-out showing employment multipliers for all U.S. counties for the years 1940, 1950, and 1960. 476 Regional Development and the Rural Poor Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 4 August 1968 14 pp COM-74-10221 The subject paper is a critique of the regional policy of the President's National Advisory Commission on Rural Poverty. The author quotes the Commission, in substance, as recommending that the rural poor have delivered to them the socio-economic amenities of urban living. He then raises the question of whether, given the nature and magnitude of forces influencing industrial location, the Commission is realistic in depending upon localized sub- sidies and strategies to induce industrial decentralization sufficient to absorb rural unemployment and underemploy- ment. For purposes of illustration, Dr. Hansen reviews a French economic experiment in creating employment in backward western provinces. A study of governmental industrial location subsidy over a ten year period indi- cates that increases which did take place were insuffi- cient to close the gap. Other similar experiments in Italy, Canada, and the United States are touched upon;, ■■ d similar results noted. Finally, Dr. Hansen suggests an alternative to the Com- mission approach, which he sees as concentrating heavily on industrial development in presently ill-adapted regions: that techniques employing a combination of remedial ed- ucational programs, officially sponsored out-migration and industrial development might be more profitable, taking into account human variables requiring a certain flexibil- ity in remedial measures. 477 Regional Economics and the New Regionalism Niles M. Hansen University of Kentucky August 1969 24 pp COM-74-10760 This article examines interrelationships developing be- tween economic analysis and regional policy. It begins with a brief history of the Appalachian Regional Program and the Public Works and Economic Development Act. The remainder of the paper considers some of the cen- tral policy issues to which future research might be addressed. The author would examine: trade-offs between "region- al development" and worker relocation, probably to growth centers of intermediate size which might develop a sig- nificant migrant absorption capacity with the aid of Fed- eral funds; the relationship between changes in business organization and changes in the spatial distribution of economic activity; the question of whether the relation- ship between urban economies and diseconomies is such that the net social product would be greater in an alter- native location; the necessity of informing regional econ- omists of the sociological implications of spatial resource allocation. Regional research and Federal regional policy might both benefit if the regions were redefined so that problems in lagging areas and opportunities in genuine growth centers were related within a common framework. 94 478 Regional and Urban Dimensions of Economic Policy Niles M. Hansen Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 COM-74-11307 The intent of this paper is to examine regional de- velopment programs in the United States, with all the attendant problems that arise from an attempt to infer a pattern in a basically uncoordinated effort. The discussion includes suggestions for restructuring of regions to encompass both lagging areas and growth centers, helping to coordinate the problems of the one and opportunities of the other in overall planning. There is also examination of Southern poverty, black migration, and the economic foundation of the Northern ghetto, with some suggestions on how to interrupt the cycle. The paper overall reviews the socio-economic circum- stances of poverty in those vast areas of the Southeast and the Plains States which are the particular focus of regional planning. 479 The Regional Distribution of Returns to Human Capital Eric A. Hanushek Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 77 February 1973 16 pp COM-74-11213 The primary focus of this paper is the question of structural similarity among regions. Since it has been commonplace to assume regional homogeneity, the ex- planation of regional economic differences has proceeded under the assumption that variation in regional economic activity is a function simply of input differences, the equalization of which would tend to equalize the income and output of a region. This paper first discusses some evidence that regional economies are characterized by different income and wage structures. It then draws on this evidence to discuss alternative models— disequili- brium models — which describe the regional wage struc- tures. Finally, some suggestions of how development strategies could interact with labor markets are presented. For ex- ample, if the policy goal is to raise regional earnings, the time profile of industrialization or increased schooling could have an important impact upon the improvement in earnings. This paper outlines a methodology for decid- ing upon how dynamic considerations should enter into current policy discussions. 480 The Relationship Between Interstate Variations in the Growth of R and D Activity and Economic Activity Ira Horowitz For Independent Study Board Report on Regional Effects of Federal Procurement Indiana University May 18, 1966 COM-74-10662 This paper presents and discusses a set of empirical results reflecting the relationship between the growth of R and D effort in individual States and the State's sub- sequent economic growth. Methodology consisted of an attempt to establish a high coefficient of correlation between R&D activity in in- dividual states and each of seven economic indicators. R&D activity for the ten year period surveyed was derived from a periodic survey of industrial research laboratories, published from 1921 through 1960 by the National Research Council. The analysis encourages the suggestion that those states enjoying the greater rates of growth in R & D effort sub- sequently enjoy economic benefits in excess of those en- joyed by the rest of the economy; and further, that the major benefit has not necessarily been in terms rjf higher rates of growth in economic activity, but rather »n terms of a smoother and more consistent rate of economic growth. 481 National Priorities for Regional Development John F. Kain Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 61 May 1970 29 pp COM-74-10755 This paper was given as a talk at the U.S. Department of Commerce National Growth Policy Conference, Washing- ton, D.C., April 17, 1970. It is the outline of a plan of attack on what Kain views as the logical first priority of a national regional policy — Southern economic development and the elimination of Southern poverty. His approach to these problems is two-fold: first, he would employ heavy government subsidy for industrial lo- cation in the South, which has the advantage of direct and immediate increase in employment as well as a mechan- ism for control of racial discrimination in employment. Discrimination constitutes a major stumbling block to Southern development, especially at the Core, and appears to yield to nothing except economic sanctions. The second device he would employ is the implementa- tion of the proposed Family Assistance Plan, which prom- ises to reduce regional differentials in public services, thereby stemming the tide of desperately poor and in- adequately prepared Southern in-migrants to Northern labor markets. The Appendix to the paper explains procedures used in his projection of the number of recipient families, ag- gregate transfers, and before and after income under the Family Assistance Plan. 482 The North's Stake in Southern Rural Poverty John F. Kain and Joseph J. Persky Harvard University May 1967 94 pp COM-74-10387 This paper examines the problem of Southern rural poverty from the point of view of the metropolitan North. It attempts to construct a rationale for Northern concern with rural poverty in the South and to discuss the result- ing implications for public policy. 95 The basic premise is the problems of urban poverty in the North (construed in a broad sense to include the growing cities of the West) and those of Southern rural poverty are inextricably intertwined; and the roots of much of the poverty in the metropolitan North are trace- able to the rural South. The paper begins with a discussion of the extent of Southern rural poverty and its relation to the poverty of the metropolitan North. It then investigates the system of migration from rural South to urban North. Lastly, there is a discussion of southern education, which, it is hoped, will contribute to a greater understanding of the persist- ence of poverty. 483 R£gk 3 Economics: A Survey J. R. iyer Harvard University October 1967 50 pp COM-74-10398 This paper is a discussion of a decade of progress in regional economics and contributions therefrom to the solution of a number of important policy questions. The paper is in five sections, beginning with an ex- amination of definitional problems peculiar to new dis- ciplines. The second section deals with policy-problem stimuli which so often provide impetus for regional economic research. Section three with the theoretical foundations of regional economics, as borrowed from general economics. Section four discusses different ap- proaches to regional economics which have emerged in actual regional studies. Section five is a summary-evalua- tion. Among Dr. Meyer's conclusions is the suggestion that regional economics might benefit from redirection of focus to formulation and testing of behavioral hypotheses as input for many of the most sophisticated research designs are now being attempted. He also raises the question of when, and whether, more complex research designs yield sufficiently improved results to justify their costs. He suggests the possibility that the functions of general economics and regional economics may con- verge as a consequence of increasing resource mobility in a world made smaller by political and technological evolution. 484 Impact of Science and Technology on Regional Development James M. Bednar, Bruce W. Macy and Robert E. Roberts Midwest Research Institute December 1967 170 pp COM-74-10861 The study is both a survey of the impact of science and technology in regional development and an examina- tion of those areas of the subject matter where knowl- edge is limited. The survey reviews the literature and ex- amines the organizational forms which have been used to stimulate regional development by means of science and technology projects. Along with a review of the "state-of-the art," the study also contains an annotated bibliography, a discussion of alternative action strategies, i.e., other institutions and programs of technology which could help stimulate eco- nomic development in a region, and a presentation on the various implications of science and technology activities to the Regional Economic Development Commissions. Findings of the study are presented in a separate sum- mary report. 485 Impact of Science and Technology on Regional Development Midwest Research Institute July 1967 31 PP COM-74-10862 The summary is based on a study of the review of the "state-of-the art" which also includes an annotated bibli- ography, a discussion of alternative action strategies, and a presentation on the various implications of science and technology activities to the Regional Economic Develop- ment Commissions. The summary sets forth the role of science and tech- nology in economic growth at both the national and re- gional levels and illustrates how science and technology are important elements in economic development. In the conclusions and recommendations, it is pointed out that usually the problems of a lagging region are more social, political, economic, and cultural in nature, rather than technical, and that the ability to use science and technology is as important as the ability to generate it. Moreover, investments made in science and technology must be integrated with, and complemented by, invest- ments in other resources. 486 A Bibliography of Resource) Materials in the Field of Economic Development Esther Nathanson Regional Economic Development Institute Inc. December 1966 99 pp COM-70-01255 The foregoing is a collection of 352 reference works with a wide application in the field of economic develop- ment, indexed by author and subject, and with appropriate descriptive and explanatory interpolations. The subhead- ings listed below comprise a fair sampling of the con- tents. 1. Information Systems 2. Regional and Urban Analysis 3. Economic Planning and Development 4. Industrial and Commercial Activity and Development 5. Transportation 6. Labor 7. Population 8. Natural Resources 9. Government and Public Finance 10. Statistics 487 Some Factors in Employment Growth and Decline in Areas of Texas: An Application of "Shift and Share" Analysis Robert T. Newsom (Louisiana State University) Georgia Institute of Technology May 2-4 1968 38 pp COM-74-10838 96 The basic purpose of this study is to develop an analy- sis of overall State employment changes through observa- tion so as to show the growth and decline of employment for the entire State of Texas. It attempts to identify specific areas of the State where employment changes have been concentrated in the major industrial sector accounting for the changes. The "shift and share" tech- nique is employed in this analysis. The growth perform- ance of an area is expressed in terms of the effect of the industrial composition in the initial year and in terms of changes in the relative share of national employment claimed by each given employment sector. In essence, it is a standardized procedure which measures the growth of all areas under study in relation to the growth of a common reference area. Above all, this study offers some insights into the divergent patterns of employment change observed largely on a metropolitan vs. nonmetro- politan basis. 488 Analysis of the Regional Context of Economic Development Peter Orleans and Marvin Hoffenberg University of California, Los Angeles August 1969 31 pp COM-74-11355 The paper was originally intended to examine the prog- nosis for economic viability of EDA supported counties and the structural conditions conducive to economic de- velopment. The method employed involved the development of a set of measures, by means of social area analysis, of those social attributes which might be supposed to effect changes in economic aspects of county populations. The necessary data were obtained from the County Merge data file in EDA's Comprehensive Information System and Data Base. 1950 and 1960 unemployment rates and median in- come were obtained from the County City Data Book. From the EDA materials was derived a social rank score, and a distribution by EDA Status classification, to be applied to the census data for each of the 3,095 counties considered. The authors state that, because of the grossness of the unrefined census data and the size and heterogeneity of county populations, the social area analysis failed to indicate significant distinctions of variation among the counties examined. 489 Interdependence in the Penjerdel Region Robert E. Coughlin, Mark Barchas, Thomas R. Hammer and Benjamin H. Stevens Regional Science Research Institute November 15, 1967 149 pp PB-184404 The report is the result of a study undertaken for the purpose of delineating political, social and economic in- terrelationships in the huge suburban-metropolitan com- plex comprising the junctures of Philadelphia, Trenton, Wilmington, Chester and Camden. The principal areas treated are commutation patterns, newspaper readership patterns, socio-economic goal in- dicators, and current industrial location practices. An overview indicates that the Penjerdel region is both self-contained and cohesive. Virtually all employed resi- dents work within the region, but nearly all counties in the region exchange residents in commutation to em- ployment sites. A more specific examination of patterns of domicile by social and economic indicators reveals a high concentra- tion in the suburbs of upper income persons, whose oc- cupations are largely metropolitan. There is a correspond- ing tendency for low-income persons to concentrate in the cities. Such a pattern need not be a total loss to the cities. For instance, persons employed in Philadelphia pay a wage tax to Philadelphia regardless of place of resi- dence. As to whether industries differ in employment generat- ing effects, the available data suggests that income multiplier effects vary little among basic industries and that industrial development policy should be concerned more with attracting new employment of any kind than with the type of new industry. Also, that the main empha- sis of industrial development should be on a region-wide policy and program, part of which would be channeling of low-skill industries into the city of Philadelphia as Phila- delphia bears the heaviest burden of social and economic problems of the region. 490 Introduction to the Russian Edition of Isard's Methods of Regional Analysis Commentary Thomas A. Reiner Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper No. 18 September 1967 19 pp COM-73-11957 The subject paper consists of two parts: The Intro- duction itself by a Russian economist, Professor A. Probst, prefaced by Thomas Reiner's commentary. Reiner's remarks explain the necessity, from the Russian standpoint, of an ideologically correct foreword to a philosophically controversial book. He describes the re- cent evident interest in the USSR in the 'regional science* approach, the beginnings of East-West dialogue, and dif- ficulties in carrying out an interchange of ideas in an atmosphere of political caution. The Introduction is, in many respects, a caveat, a step- by-step analysis of Isard's deviations from Marxist-Lenin- ist economics, particularly with reference to the concept of demand as a determining factor in the location of production. However, interspersed with warnings and re- proofs are firm recommendations to Soviet economists and economic geographers to examine research methods employed by Isard, with special attention to input-output techniques. 491 New Directions in Regionalism: A Case Study of Inter-Governmental Relations in Northwestern Wisconsin Carlisle P. Runge and W. L. Church University of Wisconsin Reprint for Wisconsin Law Review Volume 1971, No. 2 pp 449-519 COM-74-10114 The subject report is a review of the relationships of Federal, State and local planning programs as they are presently constituted, with suggestions for their future improvement. 97 The study is based on the premise that government in- stitutions in their present form are inadequate to cope with the technological explosion and increasing social and racial tensions. The area chosen for a laboratory is "Northwestern Wisconsin", a ten-county area containing approximately 10,986 square miles and comprising about one-fifth of the State. This selection was based on the desirability of simplicity in the social and economic structures as distinguished from the internal complexities of an urban problem model. The authors concluded there exists little if any coordina- tion at all levels of government and that programs would be more effective if interagency and intergovernmental cooperation were required instead of voluntary. Also, most emphatically, that developmental and environmental qual- ity programs must be treated as interdependant and planned and administered accordingly at the multi-county regional, State, multi-state regional and Federal levels. 492 Regional Development and Science-Based Industry Daniel Shimshoni Harvard University May 1968 50 pp COM-74-10764 The subject paper reviews the question of whether loca- tion of science-based industry in depressed areas can be used as a tool in regional development. The paper begins by examining some areas where com- plexes of technologically advanced firms have been estab- lished, and inquiring into the environmental factors which tend to provide favorable circumstances for growth. On the basis of a study by the author of the instru- ment industry, it was supposed that the location of science-based industry could be related to, among others: (1) university attitudes, (2) local entrepreneurs and ven- ture capital, (3) demand proximity and government de- mand, (4) professional manpower supply, (5) community attitudes and amenities. The author's conclusions, that the Middle West might provide a favorable environment for new science-based industry, are based on the assumption that States having an interest in such industry location can meet criteria derived from the factors listed above, with an emphasis on improving those conditions which will attract and hold leaders in the field. In a discussion of various definitions, the author illus- trates that there has been an expansion of the notion of "external economies" to include more than cost reduction caused by the interactions of firms. The application of the concept has broadened to encompass everything from urban social amenities to the taxation policy of a govern- ment. The second section, which examines the function of the various concepts of external economies in the numerous development theories cited, derives three major roles for external economies. The economists cited employ them to explain barriers to growth (balanced growth), mode of transmission (balanced and especially unbalanced growth), and motivation for agglomeration. 494 Underdeveloped Regions in a Historical Framework Robert D. Tollen University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 20 June 1971 25 pp w/footnotes and bibliography COM-74-11317 This paper is an inquiry into causal factors which contribute to concentration of trade and industrialization in Northern or Central areas, as opposed to Southern or peripheral areas in most countries throughout the world. The introduction outlines the author's fundamental hypothesis, a historical perspective for problems of re- gional economic development which, in subsequent chap- ters, he tries out in various European and American settings. His primary point is that underdevelopment is not a consequence of insufficient resources but of national political and institutional development. For instance, frontier regions or regions annexed, after industrial pat- terns have been set, suffer from such political and socio- economic inequities as inadequate legislative leverage, absentee ownership, inflexible (agricultural) economic base, and differential in the relative cost of production. Tollen concludes from his examination that short range development solutions which do not take into account im- mature infrastructure and do not sufficiently involve in- digenous peoples are unlikely to have lasting impact. 493 External Economies and Regional Development Theory Manly E. Staley University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 15 December 1970 26 pp COM-74-10618 This paper examines the literature of the "external economies" concept. The presentation is in two parts. The first is an examination of definitions of external econ- omies which attempts to put the areas of disagreement into categories. The second is an examination of the usage of these concepts in development theories relevant to regional problems, in order to indicate the roles which the concepts of external economies play in development theory. 495 Washington Agriculture as a Source of Business and Income in the Washington Economy, 1963 E. E. Weeks Washington State University June 1969 15 pp Bulletin 710— Washington Agricultural Experiment Station, College of Agriculture— Pullman, Washington June 1969 COM-74-10232 The purpose of this bulletin is to describe certain eco- nomic aspects of the size and nature of agriculture in the State of Washington economy without advocating poli- cies of directions of change. TOURISM, TRAVEL, AND RECREATION 496 Study of the Determinants of Consumption Expenditure on Tourist and Recreation Services M. 0. Clement Dartmouth College June 1967 169 pp PB-178881 One of the most serious pervasive issues challenging regional economics is the problem of lagging growth in our rural areas. The lack of industrial and commercial ventures in these areas indicates that other means must be found to bring about an accelerated tempo of eco- nomic development. Many rural areas are seeking the development of the tourist recreation industry to serve as a major thrust for regenerated growth for the region. The premise contains two propositions: (1) it implies a model of regional eco- nomic development in which growth is propagated outward from small nodal areas, and (2) the regions are typically underpopulated and abundant in recreation resources. This study is directed toward an evaluation of the pro- position that the tourist-recreation industry in rural localities offers good prospects of converting them into growth nodes with stable or advancing economies. Difficulties that might attend the continued emphasis on the tourist-recreation industry in rural areas are noted by the researchers. They attempt to spell out quantita- tively the several elements of demand conditions that are germane to a specific segment of the total tourist-recrea- tion industry. Using simple regression methods the rela- tive importance and significance of several potential explanatory variables as determinants of consumers out- lays on various types of tourist and recreation services is established. By extending these results the cyclical responses of several facets of the relationships of these services expenditures and the set of explanatory variables is analyzed. The results are not to be construed as defini- tive, but rather as an exploratory econometric analysis. 497 Tourist-Recreation Services: The Macro Contribution M. 0. Clement Dartmouth College August 21, 1969 48 pp COM-74-10300 in spite of the generally recognized expansion of leisure time and its manifestation in the form of outlays on tourism and recreation, little is known about the dimen- sions of this sector of the economy. This study is aimed at developing the concepts and techniques for measuring the contribution of this service sector and to identify the many deficiencies associated with implementing the conceptualized ideal solution. Calculations are made to approximate a State balance of payments on tourist-recreation service type activities. These provide estimated receipt and expenditures data, by State, to provide a crude balance of payments position by the various sub-sectors of the tourist-recreation in- dustry. Estimates of gross State product are also cal- culated as a rough approximation of value of output originating in each State. Finally, the estimated tourist- recreation services balance of payments as a percent of the gross State product is presented. The author recognizes the many limitations and inade- quacies which limit the reliability of his empirical results. Data deficiencies, lack of comparability of tourist-recrea- tion industry classifications, and the need for re-orienta- tion of the data along user lines, rather than on product or process basis, are among the major problems cited by the author. 498 A Program for Increasing the Contribution of Tourism to the Alaskan Economy Cresap, McCarmido and Paget, Management Consultants; Harris, Kerr, Foster and Company, Certified Public Accountants; and Spencer, Lee, and Busse, Architects December 1968 62 pp PB-180477 The study is a joint Federal-State endeavor to develop a tourism program for Alaska which would create addi- tional income and employment for the State. The study includes an analysis of the major require- ments for the growth of the State's tourist industry and an examination of the significance of tourism to the economy. Some of the major deterrents to the healthy growth of the tourist industry in Alaska, as cited by the study, are the high cost of travel to, from, and within the State, the small number of overnight lodgings available during the height of the tourist season, and the failure to develop and promote the numerous tourist attractions in the State. The study team points out, however, that if the industry is properly developed it can grow at a rate of 10 percent per year. Generally optimistic about Alaska's future in tourism, the study presents suggestions for implementation of the proposed program. 499 The Impact of the Tourism and Travel Industry on a Developing Regional Economy: The Puerto Rican Case William Woodbridge Goldsmith Cornell University September 1968 264 pp COM-73-12030 The major steps required to conclude this study involve development of measures of magnitude (volume of flow) of expenditures by visitors, measures of sales to visitors (as an independent check and for integration with social accounts); and finally, for determination of relatively short- run effects on regional economies, measurements dealing with interindustry accounts and with contributions to net income. Two modifications in previous concepts of the industry embedded in most studies emerged: (1) facilities designed for visitor populations also meet heavy local demand; (2) visitors use a wide range of goods and services normally thought to be for local populations. The study also ex- plores the relationship between tourism and travel activi- ties and the demand for entrepreneurship as a critical component in regional development. Several mechanisms through which externalties of the tourism-travel encour- age development are elaborated. 99 500 A Model for Developing a Set of Tourism, Travel and Recreation Accounts for a Region William W. Goldsmith and Barclay G. Jones Cornell University October 1967 37 pp COM-73-11974/5 This model was developed as an initial step in the study of the impact of tourism, travel and recreation (TTR) on a regional economy — Puerto Rico. Following an introductory historical sketch on the evolution of the concept and use of leisure time, the problems of defini- tion of the industry are examined in detail. A system of accounts is designed to measure the direction and magni- tude of flows of visitors in and out of the region. Flows are measured in terms of vehicle counts which are, in turn, translated into traveler flows, and then into transac- tion units. The concluding sections deal with method- ologies for measurement of purchases, and of production in a sector. 501 Industrial Sectors As Agents Of Social And Economic Change, The Tourism and Travel Industry In Puerto Rico Barclay G. Jones and William W. Goldsmith Cornell University May 1969 141 pp COM-73-12011 TRANSPORTATION 503 Metropolitan Highway Systems in the Framework of Social Welfare Decisions Kozmas Balkus (Harvard University) Regional Science Research Institute November 1968 44 pp COM-74-10782 Under one concept of planning, the purpose of the planning process is to maximize the level of social wel- fare and the efficiency of the economy as well. A case study of a metropolitan highway system partially demon- strates the feasibility of this approach. The analysis of the metropolitan highway system explicates the means and ends in the system's operations. In agreement with the expected mode of behavior by public agencies, the travel benefits are provided equally to all users. The analysis reveals the norms that establish the current service levels, and those which prevail in the distribution of services to the public. This case study covers only a fraction of the metropoli- tan analysis process. The proposed analysis scheme re- mains a hypothesis. It will become a metropolitan sys- tem's planning model after defining and integrating all urban functions into a single metropolitan activity space. Findings which emerged were derived from data cover- ing only the selected region. However, numerous similari- ties among metropolitan areas have been detected by transportation studies. There is a good possibility, there- fore, that the nature of this study's findings, if not the quantitative values, may apply to other regions. This study was a joint endeavor of personnel from Cor- nell University, The University of Puerto Rico, and The Planning Board of Puerto Rico. A model is developed for checking expenditures by components of the tourism, travel and recreation industry. The model is designed to integrate with standard regional social accounts. Detailed data on vehicle arrivals are provided, methodologies are explained, and areas for improvement are indicated. The final chapter examines theories of regional development as a background for specifying likely conditions under which tourism and travel will stimulate development. 502 The Tourism and Travel Industry Barclay G. Jones and William W. Goldsmith Cornell University December 20, 1968 16 pp COM-74-10301 This proposed report to the Governor of the Common- wealth provides the results of the research on the im- portance of the tourist industry in the Islands economy. It explains how and why the accounts for fiscal year 1963 were developed, and relates them to the Puerto Rico Input-Output sectors. It concludes with a discussion of how the new system of accounting provides an improved basis for considering the industry as a development tool and summarizes the direct and indirect economic effects, production economies, other related production factors and finally, the linkages with external places. 504 The Role of Transportation in Regional Economic Development Charles River Associates September 1966 165 pp plus bibliography PB-177497 The focus of the study is to determine whether trans- portation investments stimulate regional development. If the answer is yes, then it must be determined what and how much transportation can do and what will be the cost. The study explores these areas and also examines the extent to which minor changes in the system can help lag- ging areas to develop their potential. It contains (1) a re- view of the economic literature on the role of transporta- tion in regional development programs; (2) an examina- tion of the geographical shifts in the industrial structure of the country; (3) an analysis of the role of transportation modes in regional development; (4) a discussion of the changes in mode technology; (5) an exploration of the impact of transportation regulations on regional develop- ment, and; (6) a presentation on the role of urban trans- portation in development programs. 505 Theory and Application of Dynamic Synthetic Potential Models Juan Carlos Gamba, (University of Pennsylvania) Regional Science Research Institute 1969 293 pp COM-74-10767 100 This paper attempts to develop a theory of poten- tial models for the study of spatial human interaction. The dynamic synthetic theory is examined with respect to the two general theories of interaction which have been developed within the field of potential models and upon which it is based— the socio-physicist and probabil- istic theories. It is then applied to a total process of interactions and to a subset of the set of all processes— the surface-transportation processes. An extensive use is made of maps, cross sections of potential surface areas, and mathematical computations. A study of the changes in the field of spatial inter- action preferences over time for Argentina (1869-1960) and the United States (1890-1960) provides the basis for the development of a new regional delimitation criterion. The paper elaborates a theoretical framework for an evalua- tion of the impact of improvements in transportation net- works, and performs a practical application to the North- east Corridor. Several possibilities for a further develop- ment of the theory are also suggested. 506 How to Improve Urban Transportation at Practically No Cost John F. Kain Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 60 May 1970 34 pp COM-74-10399 This paper summarizes the author's views on actions needed to analyze the critical transportation problems that confront urban areas, and the solutions which could lead to improved management of urban transportation systems. Beginning with the observation that the principal short- coming of urban transport planning is a failure to ana- lyze and manage the system as a complex and highly in- terrelated system consisting of numerous competing and complementary modes, the author details the impairment to orderly planning imposed by "premature imposition of constraints." A section explains the hindrance stemming from failure of planners to pay adequate attention to problems of transition from current conditions to future optimal conditions. There is a detailed discussion of the choice of appropriate criteria for selecting design standards to obtain optimum utility from urban express- ways for rapid transit. Several recent research studies relating to application of these criteria are described. 507 Interrelationships of Transportation and Poverty: Summary of Conference on Transportation and Poverty John F. Kain and John R. Meyer Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 39 November 1968 24 pp COM-74-10367 This paper, prepared for the American Academy of Arts and Science's Conference on Poverty and Transportation, June 7, 1968, deals with the problems of poverty and race, and their relationship to transportation and access to jobs. While a serious lack of skill and overt discrimina- tion are major causes of high Negro unemployment, the geographic isolation of the ghetto, and inadequate and costly transportation, also limit Negro employment oppor- tunities. Discussed are: The Trends, The Special Problems of Race, Jobs and Transportation, Income Redistribution and Transportation, and Proposals and Solutions. Papers given at the Conference focused on "solutions" to the problems of transportation and poverty. While solutions emphasized alleviating the employment access problem, all did provide considerable benefits to the poor generally. The comparison of research and experiences in differ- ent cities may yield some common insights, if not gen- eralizations, about how to best proceed in improving urban transportation in American cities so as to increase the mobility of the urban poor and expand their opportuni- ties. 508 A Re-Appraisal of Metropolitan Transport Planning John F. Kain Harvard University Massachusetts Institute of Technology Harvard Joint Center for Urban Studies August 1967 37 pp COM-74-10427 This paper deals with what the author regards as major failings or shortcomings in urban transport planning as currently practiced in Australia and other countries. His discussion is organized under five major headings or topics for expository purposes. They are: 1. Premature imposition of constraints 2. Analysis of predetermined solutions 3. The Long Range Planning syndrome 4. Use of inconsistent, low level criteria 5. A preference for pure technologies. 509 Urban Travel Behavior J. F. Kain Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 2 September 1966 48 pp COM-74-10381 This study is a review of urban travel research under- taken since World War II. The description of the major origin and destination studies funded in large part by the Bureau of Public Roads is followed by a section dealing with descriptive or aggregative models of travel behavior. These are dealt with in terms of three topics: (1) spatial and city size variations in urban travel, (2) time and trip purpose profiles, and (3) mode of travel. Section III turns to additional micro analyses of travel behavior and focuses upon the determinants of auto- mobile ownership, trip generation, journey-to-work and residential location, and transit use and the choice of mode of travel. 510 Chi-Square Tests on the Relationship Between Superhighways and Economic Activity Patricia A. Malin University of Texas at Austin Discussion Paper No. 23 June 1971 18 pp w/bibliography and appendix 101 This paper discusses the results of Chi-square tests of independence on the relationship between the location of divided highways and population change. Population change from 1960 to 1970 is used as a close substitute for economic activity. Divided highways include the Fed- eral Interstate System as well as State-built divided high- ways and toll roads. tests for association were carried out on the Appalach- ian States and selected States in the Western half of the United States. The test results were positive in a sub- stantial number of instances for a variety of different States and groupings of States, which are representative of a variety of demographic, economic, and geographic circumstances. The highest Chi-square values are for a group of Great Plains States (Kansas, Nebraska & the Dakotas). If population change can be construed as a proxy for economic activity, then divided highways can be seen as influencing the spatial allocation of economic activity. S11 Urban Transportation John R. Meyer Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 16 November 1967 50 pp COM-74-10404 This paper begins with a discussion of the various ob- jectives that urban transport plans are supposed to serve. It examines recent trends in demand for various modes of urban transport drawing attention to the differences be- tween needs of the older major urban places, the large rapidly growing centers and smaller urban places. The financial and organizational problems that constitute the "urban transportation crisis" are discussed in detail. Policy alternatives are examined in three categories: the social welfare objectives served by mechanisms for improving movement of people and goods; recapitalization of dilapidated but essential public transport in large older cities; and creation of new facilities in rapidly growing cities of medium to large size. Various new organizational mechanisms for improving coordinated transport planning and decision-making at local, State and regional levels are described. The review concludes with a discussion of four ba- sically different urban transportation systems that seem to be emerging: traditional public transit, long distance com- mutation, cross commutation, and the inside-out system to accommodate movement between CBDs and the suburbs, and the problems that governments face in dealing with each system. 51 2 The Urban Transportation Problem in the U.S. John R. Meyer, (Harvard University) National Bureau of Economic Research January 1968 13 pp COM-74-10403 This brief essay is a general overview of urban trans- portation problems and discussion of recent trends, evi- dence of areas of improvements and the problems that arose from the tendency to rely upon the automobile and highways as the dominant solution to people's desire for speedy movement between place of residence and place of work. The environmental pollution created by such heavy dependence on the motor transport is also dis- cussed. 513 Interregional Transport Models Paul 0. Roberts Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 48 July 1969 14 pp COM-74-10369 This paper first examines the structure of various ex- isting large-scale multiregional computer simulation mod- els and then explores some of the limitations that arise in their implementation for particular policy formations. The author of this paper believes that although archtypi- cal models will eventually emerge, it will always be neces- sary to restructure models to fit the current policy ques- tions due to the fact that a single model type is not suitable to dominate for all use. In order to strengthen this point, the author elaborates various features of models concerning transportation such as (1) model com- ponents, (2) types of models, (3) other features of models, (4) public models, (5) private models and (6) problems in modeling. He finally draws a conclusion that a model is only a simplified abstraction of the real world. It is essential for the users to keep in mind the important ways in which the model deviates from the real world and take these into consideration in deciding the actual course of action to be taken. 514 Activity Allocation Models in Transportation Planning Andrei Rogers University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 84 September 1968 59 pp COM-74-10621 This paper is concerned with activity allocation models of the regional development pattern. The author begins by reviewing the fundamental conceptual approaches that have been adopted by theorists in intraurban spatial struc- ture. Next he describes the variables which have been identified by location theorists as having an important in- fluence on the locational decision-making of urban activi- ties. Finally, he outlines a particularly simple matrix model of activity allocation which in its generalized form includes several of the more popular land use models currently in use. 515 The Federal Mass-Transit Capital Grant Program Mahlon R. Straszheim Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 53 August 1969 29 pp COM-74-10480 This paper examines the internal transportation pro- blems that have emerged in urban areas since 1950 and reviews the record of the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964. The rationale for public subsidy is discussed in- 102 eluding the need for improved management, better plan- ning and development of new technologies, and the need to institute more enlightened pricing and marketing schemes. A section on non-federal financial support is illustrated with a description of the tax support system operating in the Boston metropolitan area. The paper con- cludes with plans for much more critical review of the efforts of Federal agencies to provide the urban mass transit services that the public deserves. 516 Transportation Policy as an Instrument for Altering Regional Development Patterns— Misdirected Emphasis? Mahlon R. Straszheim Harvard University August 1969 33 pp COM-74-10299 This study examines the range of opinions and the evidence supporting the idea that economic development at the multi-state regional level can be guided or signi- ficantly influenced through the application of selected transportation policies. The contrasting views of many specialists are discussed and major attention is directed to outlining the kind of research that is required to im- prove understanding of the causal relationships between transportation and regional development. The study also examines the experience of common carrier regulation vis-a-vis regional development, and concludes that trans- port regulation should not be used for such purposes. 517 Rational Bases For "Potential" And Transport Cost Models of Location T. Nicolaus Tideman Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 38 October 1968 9 pp COM-74-10428 This paper examines the relationship between poten- tial space maximization and transport cost minimization as determinants of location on rational bases. The central theme of this paper rests on the assumption that making a locational decision is a problem of maximizing profits over space. The analysis presents two criteria covering a special case and a limiting case respectively of a general criterion for profit maximization over space with constant coverage transport cost and linear production cost. It is concluded that this analysis not only presents sound theoretical definitions concerning the meanings of "gravity" and "potential" models, but it also provides a valid measure of relative profitability. URBAN STUDIES 518 Cost of Living and Income by Urban Size William Alonso and Michael Fajans University of California, Berkeley July 1970 19 PP COM-73-11730 The paper examines the relationship between income and urban size. The thesis that living cost increases ac- company increases in size of urban place is explored. Although data is insufficient, it is concluded that con- sumer costs rise slightly with urban size but not enough to offset the rise in income with urban size. 519 The Economics of Consumption, Daily Life, and Urban Form William Alonso University of California, Berkeley Working Paper No. 139 December 1970 19 PP COM-73-12007 This paper contends economics has concentrated on the process of production and virtually ignored those of consumption. Consumption affects all aspects of our society and of particular interest here is its effect on urban form by considering some ways in which the rising income, education, material possessions, transportation, expanding employment opportunities, etc. are likely to affect the form of cities in Europe, drawing analogies from the American experience. The money income of Americans is much higher, but comparisons of mode of living are usually inconclusive because, to generalize, in the United States things are cheap and people expen- sive; in Europe, people are cheap and things expensive. It is expected the texture of bourgeois European city life will change in some of its most characteristic aspects and move in the direction of the American style. 520 American Urban Dimensions, 1960 Brian J. L. Berry The University of Chicago 1968 89 pp The purpose of this paper is to define and describe principal dimensions of American urban structure in 1960, using scores from a classification profile drawn from 97 primary socio-economic variables. The method of analysis applied to these data was principal axis factor analysis. First, there was a study of the performance of the raw variables and a determination was made as to what normalizing transformations might be needed. The second application employed transformed input data. The full output of scores from 1,762 urban places with populations exceeding 10,000 on fourteen independent dimensions of variation underlying the correlations among 97 primary variables enables users of city classifications to focus more clearly on the central issues in classifica- tion, i.e., relevance and number of classes as, an organi- zational aid to analysis. The author ventures the following statements by Hodge in reviewing his own and related work, as essentially con- sistent with his results: (1) Common structural features underlie the develop- ment of all centers within a region. (2) Structural features of centers tend to be the same from region to region regardless of the stage or character of regional development. (3) Urban structure may be defined in terms of a set 103 of "independent" dimensions covering, at least (a) size of population, (b) quality of physical develop- ment, (c) age-structure of population, (d) education level of population, (e) economic base, (f) ethnic and/or religious orientation, (g) welfare, and (h) geographical situation; and (3a) Economic base of urban centers tends to act in- dependently of other urban structural features. 521 A Simple Model For the Diffusion of an Innovation In an Urban System Francoise Boon The University of Chicago April 1967 27 pp COM-74-10227 This paper puts the problem of diffusion of an in- novation in an urban system in a theoretical frame by means of an energetic analog. The model is then applied in the Belgian case, leading to a theoretical map of dif- fusion times. Although experimental information that would permit accurate testing of the model was not available, the results appear logical and indicate at least the qualitative validity of the method. 522 Urban Typologies and Political Outputs: Causal Models Using Discrete Variables and Orthogonal Factors, or Precise Distortion Versus Model Muddling Terry N. Clark University of Chicago May 1969 41 pp COM-74-10289 This paper reviews the proper roles of typologies (clas- sification systems) in the development of theory and as a basis for the development of various propositions that might help to explain causal relationships between sequ- ences of events in the functioning of urban places. Be- cause of the importance of methodological and statistical procedures in dealing with these matters, a major portion of the study is devoted to an explanation of the advan- tages and disadvantages of factor analysis and its utilities and disutilities as applied to "causal analyses." These features are illustrated by examining materials dealing with community structure and decision-making patterns in a national sample of 51 American communities. Through this analysis the author is able to compare the results of nearorthogonal variates with discrete variables in vari- ous causal systems. This paper is part of a project reported in the book Growth Centers in the American Urban System, by Brian J. L Berry (Ballinger Publishing Co., Cambridge, Mass., 1973). 523 Refuse Collection and the Density Factor Lisa Fiekowsky University of Chicago January 1972 7 pp COM-74-10125 To determine the effect of density on refuse collection in terms of time and cost, a multiple regression was run on data from the Chicago Department of Sanitation for the city's 50 wards. The four dependent variables were speed, that is pounds of refuse collected per manhour; time required for collection per curb and alley; time required per unit. Independent variables were three — col- lection density, measured in terms of number of units (dwellings of four or fewer families), divided by number of curbs and alleys covered; ratio of curbs to alleys; and the average refuse collected in tons per unit served. A total of eight regressions were run; four used logs of the independent and dependent variables. The value obtained from the logged regressions did not differ significantly from those of the unlogged regressions. 524 The 1960's Riots: Grievances and Restraints Robert M. Fogelson Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 42 pp This paper is concerned with the nature of the '60's urban riots. Its purpose is to shed further light on the causes of the riots and the restraints which acted to limit the extent, nature and duration of the riots. The characteristics of the riots and rioters are analyzed. The author concludes that the riots can be explained principally as a manifestation of Negro grievances: eco- nomic deprivation, consumer exploitation, discrimination both racial and residential, and police malpractice. Restraints are identified as commitment to orderly social change, concern for personal safety and the fear of arrest. The author's overall conclusion is that the riots of the '60's were directed at the system's abuses, rather than at the system itself, and that they could therefore be called protests rather than rebellions. 525 The Professionalization of the Police: An Essay on the Limitations of Institutional Change in Urban America, 1890-1970 Robert M. Fogelson Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1970 26 pp COM-74-10028 This paper is a history of the development of a pro- fessional, bureaucratic police department in the City of New York. Beginning in 1890, with a department ruled by precinct captains and manned by politically approved patrolmen with minimal expertise, he traces the effects of various reform movements aimed at separating the influence of the police from that of organized crime and political machines. The most dramatically effective step in the evolution of the New York Police Department was a product of the necessities of the post-World War II metropolis. This was the advent of a generation of highly competent profession- al police administrators who have consistently raised the standards of the department with respect to admission standards and training, routine and administrative pro- cedures, and, probably most importantly, morale. The 104 last has proved a most difficult problem which will pro- bably find its own solution in improved public relations. Judging the impact of these improvements is beyond the scope of the present essay. Dr. Fogelson feels that further inquiry into the question would be profitable to accurately assess our systems of law-enforcement in terms of overall social benefit. 528 Our Large Cities: New Lights on Their Recent Transformation Elements of a Development Strategy and Prototype Program Alexander Ganz Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 1971 145 pp COM-73-11972/9 526 Notes on Racial Patterns in Urban Areas Bernard Frieden and Lisa Peattie Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 7 PP Should public policy promote movement of blacks to the suburbs? Are blacks who have moved out of central city better off in economic and social terms than those who remain behind? These two questions are posed in this reconnaissance study. At present, the author concludes, there is insufficient evidence to draw conclusions either way. We do not know to what extent recent suburbaniza- tion of the black population reflects migration of middle- class blacks to a superior residential environment, the shifts of blacks to suburban jobs, or merely the spread of the ghetto to the suburbs. With respect to the reduced rate of growth of the black population in the central cities since 1966, we do not have enough information on the relative roles of the fall-off in black migration from the South and the expanding rate of suburbanization. 527 New England's Urban Development: Emerging Patterns and Issues Alexander Ganz, et al Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fall-Winter 1968 Spring 1969 35 pp This paper discusses the post-war development and fu- ture for New England's urban economy and highlights the development problems of its central cities, and the complementary role of the suburban community and rural area economies. Included are sections on the upgrading of the New England economy in the post-war era, the future growth potential of the region, and specific urban develop- ment problems which suggest the need for a regional strategy for urban development. The author suggests that a region-wide urban growth policy is needed to properly serve the needs of cities, suburban communities, and rural area economies. The present preoccupation with planning in functional areas, and for small geographic entities, should subserve larger goals and a larger potential for urban growth in line with the overall prospects of the region. The author concludes by recommending the development of urban growth tar- gets and an urban regional planning guide to facilitate the determination of priorities. This report, the result of the major inquiry initiated under a grant to the Laboratory for Environmental Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is con- cerned with three topics on urban growth: I. New evidence of recent growth of large cities; II. Recent transformation, upgrading and growth of the economy of the city of Boston. III. A Prototype development program design for large cities. A statistical appendix is offered with the study. The author examines twenty-nine of our largest cities and offers evidence that a post-1960 transforma- tion and growth of their economies has taken place. Growth in jobs in services, increased productivity levels, structural changes in industry and the office boom in large measure confirm this. The study views cities as having two basic roles— the producer role and the productions role. As producers of goods and services, creators of jobs and generators of income, our large cities have been ex- panding. As places of resident population, they have been declining. Five elements essential to a prototype development program are identified. These are: (1) extension of service activities, with related job and income growth; (2) re- covery of a margin of industrial jobs through develop- ment, promotion and aids to land assembly and financing; (3) correction of the neglect in public infrastructure facilities investment to be financed through Federal revenue sharing and an enlarged State and local tax effort; (4) promotion and development of housing at all income levels, taking advantage of (a) new demand created by an overall rise in personal income, and (b) Federal, State and local programs which are already accounting for an expanding share of housing production and (5) upgrading of the urban ghetto labor force through growth in the city's economy and more appropriately oriented manpower training and education programs. 529 Cities and Externalities: A Framework for Measurement Hans Genberg University of Chicago 1971 6 pp COM-74-10789 It has been contended in the author's "Economic Cost of Cities" that the question of the optimum size of a city can be looked upon from two points of view. Either one can be concerned with the welfare of only the resi- dents of a particular city and define the optimum size of that city as the size which maximizes this welfare. Alter- natively one can consider the nation as a whole in which what is important is optimum size distribution of cities. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there are reasons to believe that the existing size distri- bution of cities might not be the optimum one and to suggest a way of empirically testing for nonoptimality. The Model— The basis assumptions maintained are that: 105 a) the labor market is in equilibrium in the sense that laborers have moved so that real wages are everywhere the same, where "real" should be interpreted as referring to utility, and b) the rate of return on capital is the same in all cities. views of the determinants of these changes and empha- sizes the cumulative nature of urban development by examining the extent to which the present structure of cities is determined by past circumstances. 530 Economic Costs of Cities Hans Gen berg University of Chicago 1971 ^ 7 pp COM-74-10790 In this paper, the author attempts to focus his attention on the positive externalities of a large city, such as higher wages and more jobs, rather than on the negative exter- nalities such as air pollution and congestion. He asserts that because big metropolitan areas as a rule have dirtier air and more rush-hour traffic jams than small rural towns, that does not provide a valid argument for reducing the size of the former. He examines and compares the city's cost curves to that of a firm's cost curve. He finds that like in any firm the size and population of a city depends greatly on its cost curve. The author views the benefits of large cities from the resident's point of view. He formulates many questions to be answered and uses computations to support his study. 531 Cumulative Urban Growth and Urban Density Functions David Harrison Jr. and John F. Kain Harvard University February 1973 56 pp COM-74-10561 This paper sets forth an alternative theoretical ex- planation of regular declines in gross population density with distance from the center of urban areas, emphasizing the disequilibrium nature of urban growth and the dur- ability of residential and nonresidential capital. In this framework, current levels of explanatory vari- ables, such as commuting costs and family incomes, determine the density of development during this period, but the character of past and future development depends on the levels of these variables during those time periods. Analyses of data for 82 urban areas indicate that a simple econometric model provides good predictions of the density of residential development in each urban area for discrete time periods between 1880 and 1960 and of variations in current residential densities among these areas. 533 An Economic Analysis of City Size Distribution in the U.S. and England, 1790-1970 Donald Haurin University of Chicago April 1973 17 PP COM-74-10725 The rank-size rule is a name for a special case of the Pareto distribution which may, in general, be described as (1) R=AP-* Here R stands for the rank of a variable 'P' in the distribution and x and A are constants to be determined. George Zipf among others has stated that city size distri- butions are Pareto with x = 1.0 and named this relation- ship the rank-size rule. It is seen that if x = 1.0, then A may be determined as the population of the largest city. If R = 1 = AP,-> then A — P, where P, = the popula- tion of the city of rank i. The most interesting aspect of this relationship is that a realistic formal theory which explains it has not been developed. The technique used in this study is regression analysis so that statistically precise statements and comparisons can be made. The method of explaining deviations from the rank-size rule performs better than attempting to ex- plain the whole distribution. In the latter case the significance and sign of the density variable supports the idea of optimal city sizes as being an important determin- ant of the complete distribution. Futher research lies in the direction of more theoretical work so that additional independent variables could be specified. Alternatively, analysis in Part I shows that if a realistic theory could be developed that would result in a specification of the rank-size rule, then deviations in observed values could be explained. 534 The Types, Sizes and Locations of Cities: A General Equilibrium Model J. V. Henderson University of Chicago November 1971 30 pp COM-74-10780 532 An Historical Model of Urban Form David Harrison Jr. and John F. Kain Harvard University September 1970 45 pp COM-74-11217 This paper analyzes the dramatic changes which have occurred in the form and density of U.S. metropolitan areas in the quarter century following World War II. An empirical model is presented as an alternative to current A hierarchy of cities is postulated in this thesis with cities in hierarchal order A specializing in Xi and in hier- archal order B X:. It cannot be proved algebraically that we are better off with specialization rather than having one type of city producing both goods, because we can- not algebraically solve the model in which there are two scarce primary factors of production and three final out- put goods produced in one city, Xi, X*, X«. If the number of scarce primary factors is reduced to one, the model could be solved for three final good outputs produced in one city and prove our point. For the present model, we must be content with presenting the logic of the argument without the benefit of algebraic embellishments. 106 535 Patterns of Population Density in St Louis Henry R. Hertzfeld Washington University, St. Louis Working Paper DRA 4 June 1967 10 pp COM-74-10025 This paper is an effort to employ data published in Urban Atlas: 20 American Cities, by Passoneau and Wur- man, to observe the extent to which density configurations of the metropolitan area follow a concentric arrangement around the center, with per capita income increasing and density decreasing as one moves out from the center. From the theory, it would be expected that there would be an overall increase in density, with the central areas becoming very dense toward the later years, and the outlying areas beginning to show signs of increased settle- ment. For the most part, this did prove to be the case. However, the central business district shows signs of becoming very much less dense than in earlier times. The author feels that conclusions to be drawn from a study of the "rings" of a city and their changes over time would require more detailed data than was in- cluded in the source material used in this brief study. 536 Two Views of Urban Dynamics George K. Ingram and John F. Kain Harvard University Discussion Paper No. 71 January 1970 15 pp This paper is comprised of two reviews of a book, Urban Dynamics, by Jay W. Forrester, which is a descrip- tion of the workings of an "urban system" model and offers the author's evaluation and recommendation of simulated policy strategies. The book is well documented with com- puter print-out graphs and program listings. The model which is the subject of the book takes nine major level variables defined by socio-economic class over population, housing stock, and employment, and relates them recursively through twenty-two rate variables to arrive at the city's configuration in aggregate terms at each point in time. An attraction score is calculated for each population class as a function of employment op- portunities, housing availability, the tax rate, etc. For- rester sees the urban manager's role as one of changing the components of the city's attraction score while main- taining its attraction equilibrium. Both Ingram and Kain differ strongly with Forrester on his choice of evaluative criteria, which is strongly slanted in favor of the urban manager's viewpoint, and on the verisimilitude of the model as a representation of the real world. This paper is an attempt to describe the interdepen- dencies among the ghetto, the metropolitan area, and the nation as a whole, as a framework for evaluating existing and proposed policies for the ghetto, especially with re- spect to economic development programs. The authors view the thesis of dispersal of the ghetto as a matter of official policy. The contention is that pro- grams designed to improve living conditions in ghetto areas tend to drain resources that might be better em- ployed in dismantling the whole structure once and for all. Discrimination against blacks, rather than poverty per se, is the chief villain in concentrating blacks in decrepit city tenements and depriving them of access to upwardly mobile jobs. The authors make a number of policy recommendations for improving the situation of blacks. For EDA, the authors recommended a policy of Southern regional development, concentrating heavily on existing Southern metropolitan amenities as an armature for in- volvement of blacks in new industrial and educational opportunities. 538 The Ghetto, The Metropolis, and The Nation John F. Kain and Joseph J. Persky Harvard University March 1968 28 pp COM-74-10452 This paper draws heavily on an earlier paper, "Alter- natives to the Gilded Ghetto", prepared by the authors for the Economic Development Administration Research Conference, held in Washington, D.C., February 1968. Both papers consider alternative strategies for the urban ghetto in light of the strong economic and social link of that community to the metropolis in which it is embedded and to the nation as a whole. 539 Notes From the Blackbelt and Ghetto Labor Markets and Income Maintenance John F. Kain Harvard University June 1968 15 pp COM-74-10645 Contained in this paper are two short pieces dealing with the problems of the ghetto, migration from the rural South to the metropolitan North, rural poverty, and Southern economic development. "Notes from the Black Belt" was prepared for the Hearings of the U.S. Com- mission on Civil Rights held in Montgomery, Alabama, April 27, and May 2, 1968. "Ghetto Labor Markets and In- come Maintenance" was prepared for the Joint Economic Committee's Hearings on the Kerner Commission Report held May 29, 1968. 537 Alternatives to the Gilded Ghetto John F. Kain and Joseph J. Persky Harvard University September 1967 32 pp COM-74-10373 540 A Short Course in Urban Economics John F. Kain Harvard University March 1968 13 pp COM-74-10298 107 This paper is a straight forward exposition of the author's view of the relatively new field of urban eco- nomics. Included in the paper are a brief introduction giving background and history, the actual outline of a course similar to one given by Kain at Harvard in 1967, and comments of the author on the most useful definition or focus for courses in urban economics. The course provides a survey of literature concerned with industry location, residential location, the effects of racial segregation, the behavior of housing markets, and the impact of taxes and urban services on location deci- sions. The objective of the process is to develop an ex- planation of the processes of metropolitan development and the determination of metropolitan spatial structure. It is hoped that, in developing an analytical structure for urban economics, a tool may be provided for diagnos- ing urban problems and designing appropriate public policies. 541 Urban Form and the Costs of Urban Services John F. Kain Harvard University May 1967 97 pp COM-74-10385 This paper examines the question of how the costs of urban services vary with, or are affected by, various aspects of urban form such as density, contiguity and compactness. Conclusions of the survey suggest that, contrary to most current opinion, factors such as development standards and the existence or availability of excess capacity in long living capital facilities correlate more closely with the cost of services than does urban form. The method of inquiry includes a review of prevalent approaches to planning for urban form and exposition of urban structure as it evolves, and comparative views of development standards and structure costs, vis a vis density factor. Finally, the author presents a critique of well-known case studies on the subject. 542 Territorial Integrity and Urban Expansion David Kaufman and Peter Orleans University of California, Los Angeles 1968 13 pp/Appendix COM-74-10433 This study explores the relationship between socio-eco- nomic indicators of urban activities and demographic classifications. Three demographic classifications were used as the basis for exploration (population size, popu- lation density, and number of places) in urban counties. The authors concluded that in an analysis of counties, the usual demographic characteristics of populations, size and density, are systematically related to socio-eco- nomic activities defined as urban and that these demo- graphic classifications are interdependent. 543 Present Federal Programs Dealing With Urban Development Job Creation and Job Upgrading Duncan MacRae Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1968 Vol. I, 112 pp COM-74-10843 This volume is a compilation of Federal programs which aim at bettering the lives of the American people. Most specifically on programs which bear on the development of the urban areas of the United States and those of interest and importance to people dealing with urban problems. Also included are programs which aid rural poverty areas and certain programs, especially in the area of housing, which are designed to serve middle in- come groups. The programs are arranged under general subject head- ings, full program outlines are preceded by a quick-fact summary of all the programs included, and a glossary of commonly used initials has been appended to the vol- ume. 544 Proposals for Urban Development, Job Creation and Job Upgrading Duncan MacRae Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1968 150 pp Vol. II COM-74-10842 A survey of the most significant and influential of the present approaches to urban problems. Proposals before Congress and of the Presidential candidates are covered and can be compared with recommendations of the Na- tional Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders as well as the recommendations of two significant black American groups: the A. Phillip Randolph Institute, and the Poor Peoples' Campaign. Proposals and activities of the Urban Coalition and the National Alliance of Businessmen are discussed, including the JOBS Program. The final section deals with plans outlined by James P. Foley, former As- sistant Administrator for Economic Development, U.S. Department of Commerce, in his book, The Achieving Ghetto— (A Marshall Plan for the Ghetto). 545 Recommendations to Hoboken Model Cities on Economic Development Duncan MacRae Massachusetts Institute of Technology February 1969 5 pp COM-74-10664 This brief reconnaissance paper contains a discussion of the means through which a Mayor's Commission for Economic Development should be established to develop a metropolitan center in Hoboken. The first task advocated for the Commission is to prepare a preliminary study of 108 Hoboken Center. Cost-revenue analysis of municipal fin- ances to determine the capability of the city to take part in the new development ar.J an analysis of the impact of the center on the residents of the Model Cities Neigh- borhood are proposed for inclusion in the study. Addition- ally, the Commission should apply for a two year tech- nical assistance grant for the purpose of preparing and implementing a plan for Hoboken Center. Lastly, the Commission should take on the task of trouble-shooting the problems of Hoboken's industry and act as liaison between the mayor and the business community. These efforts, the author claims, could have an immediate im- pact on the tax base, employment and income of Hoboke n. 546 The Quest to Save the Central City Lloyd Rodwin Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1969 66 pp The theme of this paper is that, if the United States is to find solutions to the three major development prob- lems it faces— those of our central cities, the lagging re- gions, and the special problems of poverty and unemploy- ment among the non-white population— a national policy for urban and regional growth must be formulated. The paper traces the social, economic and political factors which led to the formation of fragmented efforts made by the Federal government in each of the problem areas noted. Old and new programs have frequently operated at cross purposes since they were not formulated as part of a unified urban growth strategy. The author pays recognition to the formulation of a national policy for urban and regional growth. A new agency is proposed, preferably a council in the Executive Office of the President, which should be established with the mandate to evaluate urban growth issues and recom- mend urban and regional development policies and legislation to the President and the Cabinet. 547 Urban Growth Strategies Reconsidered Lloyd Rodwin Massachusetts Institute of Technology November 1969 18 pp COM-74-11313 This paper sets forth the broad issues to which urban growth strategies, including growth center strat- egies, must address themselves. The author argues that no other aspect of our culture will receive more searching examination in the years to come than the effort to achieve a national urban and regional growth strategy. He points out that present policies are primarily concerned with curbing metropolitan growth in one or more areas and with promoting growth in alternative loca- tions, but predicts a modification in emphasis. New direc- tions involve policies for (1) dealing with massive linear megalopolitan clusters, (2) building up resources and capabilities of local governments, (3) insuring groups that should benefit from growth will do so, and dealing with the changing functions performed by cities. 548 Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion Andrei Roger University of California, Berkeley March 1969 96 pp COM-74-10027 This paper discusses the analytical foundations of quadr. v analysis which form the basis for a series of studie -nd applies the analysis to two cities. Quadrat anaiys is a technique for estimating which of several statistical mechanisms accounts for the spatial pattern of activities in an urban area. Several candidates are discussed; simple distributions, Poisson, Binomial and negative Binomial, compound and generalized distribu- tions such as the Compound Poisson Distribution and Neyman Type A distribution. Parameter (moment) estima- tion and hypothesis testings with power functions is also discussed. Quadrat Analysis is applied to the spatial distributions of shopping goods stores and convenience goods stores in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia and San Francisco, California. It was found that the former have mutual affinities for location with one another while the latter tend to repel each other. The statistical mechanisms accounting best for these patterns were discussed and the degrees of mutual attraction and repulsion estimated. 549 Benefit-Cost Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Increasing Ghetto Resident Employment: Theory and Method Jerome Rothenberg Massachusetts Institute of Technology July 20, 1971 78 pp COM-73-11725 This study attempts to delineate an evaluational frame- work for considering five different types of policies to in- crease ghetto resident employment, roughly: (1) manpower education and training, including on-the-job training; (2) improved transportation access to jobs; (3) governmental public service employment; (4) dispersal of ghetto house- holds outside ghettos; (5) economic development of ghettos and central cities. These have been chosen partly because of an intrinsic importance, but also to throw light on a representative range of evaluational issues. For each type of policy a basic theory as to its mode of im- pact on the problem at hand is given, and cost. Two chief forms of benefit and cost are given: one for consequences affecting the aggregate level of real income in the system as a whole (the United States), the other influencing only the distribution of real income. This conceptual structure is then subjected to an ex- amination as to what measurements to perform on obser- vables in order to quantify the consequences of different policies within the appropriate categories. Finally, through the illumination provided by the analytic-measurement framework concerning what phenomena constitute relevant strengths and weaknesses of the several policies. This is not accomplished by formal mobilization and manipula- tion of quantitative empirical data but through an im- pressimistic exposure to such data as well as to qualita- tive materials. 109 550 An Exploratory Study of Municipal Expenditures George Tolley, Terry N. Clark, Yi Wang and John L. Gardner University of Chicago December 1971 7 pp COM-74-10678 The authors used 51 cities as samples in their study to identify factors that tend to affect the wide variations of municipal expenditures on various public services, and to detect statistically whether economy or diseconiftfty of scale prevails in providing such services. Nine common factors were selected for their data. They were highways, police protection, sewage, sanitation other than sewage, parks and recreation, financial administra- tion, general control, and general building. The authors present tables of the effects and expendi- tures of each factor within their study. 551 Supply Oriented Urban Economic Models Alan R. Winger University of Kentucky Discussion Paper No. 16 September 1969 19 PP COM-74-11314 The author points out that many national or regional planners are currently interested in the development of urban models involving intra-area distributions or alloca- tions. One of the important prerequisites in the develop- ment of urban models is that there must be a population to distribute before these models can be implemented. Therefore, the development of aggregate urban models concerned with change is an integral part of the study of the urban development. In exploring this topic, the author starts first to survey the basic economic growth models covering both the demand and supply models. After discussing urban ap- plications of these theoretical models, he projects the most appropriate direction for an urban setting in the future. He draws a conclusion that supply factors will become a more important part of urban economic growth models. 552 Urban Problems and Economic Theory Alan R. Winger and John L. Madden University of Kentucky October 1969 24 pp COM-74-10660 The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of some of the more contemporary features of our urban centers. Discussion centers on (1) urban spatial structures, (2) urban growth, (3) urban poverty, (4) the quality of urban environment, and (5) urban economic management, and attempts to indicate some uses of economic theory in the analysis of these phenomena and problems. 553 Analyses and Projections of Employment by Industry and Occupation in Ten Large Metropolitan Areas Manuel Zymelman Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1970 99 pp A series of tables is provided for the following metro- politan areas: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, St. Louis and San Francisco— Oakland, based on "Employment by Industry and Occupation" and "Coefficients of Employ- ment by Occupation for Each Industry." The tables are presented for the years 1950, 1960, 1965 estimated, 1970 projected and 1975 projected. 110 INDEX — SUBJECT Adjustments, regional 297 Age and racial differences 18 Aged, economic status 151, 218 Agglomeration, economies of scale 247 Aggregate efficiency 463 Agriculture, Washington state 495 Air pollution control, input-output measures of cost 25 Airport impact 139 Aligning industrial classification systems 183 Alignment consumer expenditure and input-output categories 198 Alternative criteria, EDA areas 437 Analytical methodologies 22 Analytical techniques 15 Analytical techniques, applicant quali- fications 413 Analytical techniques, area profile 413 Analytical techniques, forecast 413 Analytical techniques, key indicators 413 Analytical techniques, matrices and graphs 413 Analytical techniques, overall indica- tors 413 Analytical techniques, scoring grids 413 Analytical techniques, technical as sistance evaluation 413 Automobiles, Canada-U.S. agreement 148 Balance of payments, regional 297 Banking 39 Benefit-cost ratios, EDA business loans 414 Bibliography 486 Bibliography, county government 306 Bibliography, growth centers 70 Bibliography, growth poles 70 Bibliography, input-output 176 Black capitalism 166 Black employment impact: size, region 436 Black investment priorities 96 Black labor markets 539 Bridging between classification sys- tems 183 Budgeting, program models 446 Business development, program costs for EDA 433 Business loans 5, 6, 7, 9, 41 Business loans, EDA 414, 417, 439 Business loans, EDA, and job shifts 418 Business loans, EDA, comparison with commercial banks 430 Business loans, EDA guidelines 10 Business loans effectiveness, EDA 426 Capacity, industrial 451 Capital coefficients 197 Capital, developing regions 46 Capital markets, North Carolina 54 Capital markets, regional 48 Capital markets, Tennessee 37 Causal relationships, urban models 522 Census 356 Central-city development 545, 546 Central-city metropolitan area prob- lems and policies 262 Cities, general equilibrium model 534 City expenditures 550 City-size, costs 523, 541 City-size, economic costs 529, 530 City-size, economics 347, 367, 369, 392, 398, 533 City size, economies of scale 534 City-size, efficiency 366, 374, 395 Cobb-Douglas production function 330 Commercial banks, North Carolina 34 Commercial banks, regional growth 33, 36 Community development organizations 166 Community differentiation 460 Community impact of rural industriali- zation 143 Community organization 264 Community organization, transporta- tion 511 Community participation 265, 268, 272 Community power structures 271 Community response 266 Community Self-Determination Act 267 Commuting 99, 453, 506, 509, 512 Computer programs 240 Concentration of industry 189 Construction industry 112 Consumer final demand 198, 204 Consumption expenditures, Washing- ton State 172 Consumption rates 19 Consumption, urban form 519 Cost, air pollution control 25 Cost-benefit 16 Cost-benefit analysis 235, 258, 281 Cost-benefit, public works 119 Cost-of-living indicators national, ur- ban, and rural 518 Cost, transport models 517 Costs and city-size 529, 530 Costs, EDA business development 433 County government 307 County government, bibliography 306 County industrial location, forecasting 223 Criteria, EDA areas 437 Cross city analysis 429 Cyclical unemployment 283 Data collection procedures, EDA proj- ects 415 Data systems 247 Data utilization procedure, EDA pro- jects 415 Decision-making models 444 Defense adjustment 137 Defense adjustment, Connecticut 135 Defense adjustment, Massachusetts 116 Demographic variables, econometric models 445 Depressed areas, identification 282 Development company, SBA 409 Development corporation, community 409 Development corporation, model cities 409 Development, economic 244 Development organizations 432 Development processes 277 Differential adjustment of migrants 85 Differentiation, community 460 Diffusion of growth 80 Disarmament impact 137 Discounted future utility 324 Discriminant analysis 438 Discrimination, housing 104 District activities, economic planning 408 District activities, funding 408 District activities, grantsmanship 408 District activities, industrial prospect- ing 408 District activities, technical assistance 408 District concept 432 District development 300, 449 District, economic development 435 District program base, economical 408 District program base, political 408 District staffs 408 Dualism 312 Dynamic and static objectives 226 Dynamic system 326 Ecology 22 Econometric growth model, regional 496 111 Econometric model, city-size 367 Econometric model, Coastal Plains 452, 465, 466 Econometric model, decision and control 461 Econometric model, urban growth 531 Econometric models 243, 329 Econometric models, demographic role 445 Econometric models, regional 118, 467 Economic base multipliers 455 Economic development, central cities 221, 528 Economic development districts 284, 287 Economic development, Southern 539 Economic efficiency 226 Economic growth models, urban 551 Economic status and sex 152 Economic status, measures for aged 151 Economic viability 280 Economics, city-size 529, 530, 533 Economics, transition to peace time economy 170 Economies of scale 247 Economies of scale, city-size 534 EDA areas, requalification 437 EDA assisted counties 438 EDA business loans 414, 417 EDA business loans, commercial banks 430 EDA business loans, guidelines 439 EDA business loans, impact 436 EDA business loans, job shifts 418 EDA business loans, local participa- tion 426 EDA growth center policy 423 EDA impact 438 EDA impact, urban areas 429 EDA planning grants 408, 432 EDA programs, Hawaii 428 EDA programs, impact 416 EDA programs, job shifts 419 EDA public works 411, 415, 424, 427 EDA selected Indian Reservation 412 EDA technical assistance 413, 415 EDA technical assistance, evaluation 420, 421 EDA training projects 425 Education 11, 12, 13, 15, 165 Education impact 16 Education, impact on economic status 17 Education, mountain, role in develop- ment 14 Education, regional science 471 Effectiveness measurements, direct economic impact 413 Effectiveness measurements, improve ment of local capabilities 413 Effectiveness measurements, overall economic development 413 Efficiency and equity 327 Elasticity of marginal utility 324 Electric power industry, location 219 Empirical estimation 160, 324 Employment 121, 128, 154, 155, 186, 256, 262, 528, 544 Employment, effects of public works on 119 Employment, impact, of migration 422 Employment increase 448 Employment, minority 549 Employment multipliers, local 475 Employment predictions 158, 194, 544 Employment projections 553 Entrepreneurship 255, 265 Entrepreneurship, East Kentucky mountains 14 Entrepreneurship, role in development 14 Environment 20, 22, 27, 282, 472, 494, 523 Environment, Colorado 21 Environment controls 26 Environment, impact on migration 360 Environment, residential 100 Environment, urban 552 Environmental impact 29 Environmental pollution 19, 512 Environmental quality 24 Environmental resources 28 Equation solution technique inversion 182 Equation solution techniques 192 Equilibrium growth model 328, 462 Equity and efficiency 326, 350 Equity and efficiency, migration 348 Equity versus efficiency 277 Estimates, population growth 403, 404 Evaluation criteria, development cor- porations 409 Evaluation, EDA business loans 417, 439 Evaluation, federal programs 266 Evaluation, manpower training 258 Evaluation, multi-regional input-output model 177 Evaluation, research objectives 15 Factor analysis 458 Factor redistribution 226, 463 Factors of production 156 Federal activities 3, 6, 13, 41, 181, 300, 333, 341, 491 Federal activities, job creation 543 Federal assistance plan, regional im- pact 134 Federal assistance, role in East Ken- tucky 14 Federal controls, versus local 26 Federal expenditures 115, 141 Federal expenditures, regional 115, 126, 127 Federal expenditures, regional effects 132 Federal policies 283 Federal policy, regional 547 Federal policy, rural development strategies 339 Federal policy, technological innova- tion 124 Federal policy, urban 351, 547 Federal policy, urban and regional 546 Federal program budget 57 Federal programs, evaluation 266 Federal programs, regional planning 316 Federal research and development, re- gional impact 130 Federal spending, impact 147 Final demand by States 180 Final demand estimates 168, 206 Finance 7, 9, 37, 39, 41, 47, 48, 60, 159, 167, 181, 186, 188, 375, 390 Finance, alternative subsidies 50 Finance, capital markets 53 Finance, equity capital 55 Finance, Federal program budget 57 Finance, Federal subsidies 140 Finance, grants-in-aid 40 Finance, industrial subsidies 32,46 Finance, local 42 Finance, mass transit 515 Finance, North Carolina 63 Finance, North Carolina commercial banks 34 Finance, North Carolina insurance 38 Finance, public 43, 59 Finance, public, Coastal Plains 49 Finance, and regional growth 33, 36,63 Finance, regional money markets 62 Finance, Small Business Administra tion in North Carolina 54 Finance, Southeast banking structure 56 Finance, State and local 30, 31 Financial, Federal subsidies 122 Financial incentives 117, 144 Fiscal policy, intergovernmental 149 Fiscal policy, regional effects 137 Fiscal policy, state and local 59 Fiscal problems and policies, city 545 112 Forecast, Alaska economy 320 Forecasting industrial location model 224 Forecasting industrial locations for U.S. counties 223 Forecasting, regional model 456 Government, county 307 Growth center, evaluation 67 Growth center policy 77, 87 Growth center policy, EDA 423 Growth center selection 69, 86, 88, 91, 92 Growth center strategy 547 Growth center theory 71, 73, 80 Growth center theory, model 87 Growth centers 32, 64, 65, 66, 72, 74, 75, 76, 79, 81, 82, 83, 85, 89, 93, 110, 284, 365, 368 Growth centers, and American Indians 1 Growth centers, bibliography 70 Growth centers, characteristics 84 Growth centers, concept 70 Growth centers, evaluation of concept 70 Growth centers, Federal legislation 84 Growth centers, Hawaii County 68 Growth centers, and job shifts 419 Growth centers, regional impact 78 Growth centers, research 84 Growth centers, Southern 260 Growth centers, spread effects 95 Growth, manufacturing 449, 450 Growth model, optimal 325 Growth model, two regions 330 Growth models, intra-regional 321 Growth paths, long run 325 Growth poles 90-94 Growth poles, bibliography 70 Growth poles, concept 70 Growth poles, evaluation of concept 70 Growth poles theory 71 Growth policy 39, 112 Growth policy, national 27, 64, 72, 92, 276, 280, 295, 296, 314, 342, 351, 352, 382, 404, 472 Growth and small communities 431 Growth theories 244 Growth, urban 531 Guttman scale 458 Health services, Southeast 261 Highway planning and regional loca- tion 331 Housing 2, 4, 97, 98, 106, 108, 109; 110, 112, 114, 295 Housing, discrimination 99, 104 Housing, market demand 103 Housing market, growth models 321 Housing, markets 100, 101, 113, 540 Housing, minority 96, 104 Housing policy 546 Housing, public 105 Housing, segregation 102 Housing, substandard 107 Human behavior 235 Human capital 165, 358 Human resources 4, 27, 74, 156, 157, 253, 254, 260, 283, 300, 335; 478, 481, 482 Human resources, development 257 Human resources, East Kentucky mountains 14 Human resources, public investment 363 Hypothesis testing 238, 240, 241, 548 Impact, airport 139 Impact analysis, technique 442 Impact defense adjustment, Connecti- cut 135 Impact, EDA business loans 417, 436 Impact, EDA Hawaii programs 428 Impact, EDA programs 416, 438 Impact, EDA public works 427 Impact, EDA urban activities 429 Impact Federal spending, income dis- tribution 147 Impact Federal spending, regional 141 Impact government and industrial ex penditures, regional 205 Impact grading, EDA Public Works 411 Impact, manufacturing on regional growth 231 Impact measurements, business 425 Impact measurements, community 425 Impact measurements, EDA training projects 425 Impact measurements, participants 425 Impact measurements, project opera- tions 425 Impact of public policy 59, 69, 82, 95, 117, 120, 122, 123, 138, 140, 149, 199 Impact of public policy, local 540 Impact of public policy, transporta- tion 516 Impact of public programs, policies 510 Impact, public works 119, 235 Impact, Puerto Rico tourism 499 Impact, regional 11, 75, 93, 158, 166, 169, 280, 299, 304, 328, 472, 489, 494, 520 Impact, regional transportation 511 Impact results, economic develop- ment process 411 Impact results, jobs 411 Impact results, service 411 Impact results, structural 411 Impact revenue sharing, regional 131 Impact rural industrialization 143, 216, 217 Impact, rural industrialization on aged 218 Impact, rural industrialization on in- come distribution 164 Impact rural industrialization on trade patterns 237 Impact, science and technology 484, 485 Impact, science and technology on regions 136 Impact, Southern area 11 Impact, Southern areas transportation 511 Impact, technology on rural area 146 Impact, Viet Nam expenditures 133 Income 16, 101, 150, 186, 390 Income accounts, Puerto Rico 457 Income changes, and mobility 163 Income distribution 156, 518 Income distribution, factors in 165 Income distribution, impact of Federal spending 147 Income distribution, North Carolina 161 Income, effects of public works on 119 Income, housing demand 103 Income impact, of migration 422 Income impact, size, region 436 Income maintenance 539 Income maintenance, labor supply effects 125 Income maintenance, migration 120 Income redistribution 160 Income, regional components 475 Income, regional differences 153 Indian reservations 3 Indian reservations, EDA program evaluation 412 Indian reservations, and growth centers 1 Indians 2, 4 Industrial capacity 451 Industrial capacity, measurements 8 Industrial classification systems 183 Industrial development, subsidies 227 Industrial location 117, 186, 189, 194, 220, 221, 226, 234, 247, 249, 273, 274, 276, 295, 318, 336, 337, 380, 381, 476, 481, 545 Industrial location, factors 230 Industrial location, growth models 321 Industrial location, regional planning 215 Industrial location, technical com- panies 225 113 Industrial subsidies 273 Industrialization, EDA areas 438 Industrialization, rural 232, 400 Industrialization, rural areas 339 Industry movement 378 Information 328 Information systems 336, 337 Information systems, tourism 456 Innovation diffusion, and urban hier- archy 362 Innovations, diffusion in urban sys- tems 521 Input-output 22, 28, 168, 170, 178, 180, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 195, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 205, 206, 208, 210, 213, 449 Input-output, air pollution control 25 Input-output, bibliography 176 Input-output, computer program 443 Input-output, federal fiscal policies 137 Input-output, Japanese 201 Input-output, Massachusetts defense adjustment 116 Input-output methodology 168, 180, 191, 203, 206 Input-output, multi-regional model evaluation 177 Input-output, Puerto Rico 502 Input-output, regional 141 Input-output, South Carolina 207 Input-output, tables, methods 175 Input-output, U.S. multiregional 202 Input-output, U.S. multiregional model 201 Input-output, Washington State 171 172, 211 Intergovernmental fiscal policy 149 Intergovernmental relations 243 Inter industry models, regional 469 Interregional equity 463 Interregional input-output 205 Intertemporal optimization 324 Interview performance, predicting 470 Intra-metropolitan area employment shifts 221 Intra-urban migration 107 Job creation 543 Labor characteristics, manufacturing 450 Labor demand, elasticity of 128 Labor force change 448 Labor force growth, New York 401 Labor force, human capital 253, 375, 380 Labor force participation 121, 128, 256, 262, 273, 361, 375, 380 Labor force participation, black 260 Labor force, and regional growth 251 Labor mobility 99, 389 Labor mobility programs 257 Labor productivity 160 Labor supply effect, of income main- tenance 125 Labor supply, elasticity of 128 Land use 221, 345 Land use control 346 Large-scale matrix 182 Large-scale matrix inversion 192 Lease guarantees 51 LeontiefStrout gravity model 200 Linkages, manufacturing 229 Loan efficiency, size, region 436 Loan guarantees 51 Loan program administration, local and regional participation, business loans 426 Local area personal consumption esti- mates 204 Local budgets, allocation for public works 119 Local government problems 12, 35, 58, 59, 60, 75, 150, 186, 188, 212, 240, 242, 265, 270, 272, 273, 295, 307, 333, 335, 481, 491, 523 Local policy, urban 547 Local property taxes 345 Location choice and taxation 144 Location choices 331 Location, industrial 220, 226, 540 Location, intra-urban 238 Location, intra-urban analysis 241 Location, research and development 146 Location, residential 540 Location theory 189, 245, 246, 249 Location, and transportation 517 Location, urban public facilities 394 Location, and urban transportation 514 Locational criteria 228 Locational impact 228 Management, urban 552 Manpower, mobility 250 Manpower mobility, Coastal Plains 376, 377 Manpower, mobility regional effects 359 Manpower programs 315 Manpower training 252, 258, 262, 263 Manpower training and development 339 Manufacturing industries 247 Manufacturing linkages 229 Manufacturing, location 231 Marginal utility of welfare 325 Marine regional planning 23 Marketing 97, 187, 390 Mass transit, Federal programs 515 Measuring economic distress 285 Methodology, business development programs of EDA 433 Methodology, EDA business loans evaluation 418, 426, 436 Methodology, EDA public works evalu- ation 427 Methodology, effectiveness of business loans 414 Methodology, industrial capacity measurement 451 Methodology, input-output 198,204 Methodology, planning grants 432 Methodology, planning grants evalua- tion 408 Methodology, population growth esti- mate 403 Methodology, program evaluation 410 Methodology, public work costs 434 Methodology, public works projects evaluation 411 Methodology, regional studies 185, 490 Methodology, selected reservations evaluation 412 Methodology, technical assistance evaluation 413 Methodology, training projects evalua- tion 425 Metropolitan areas 100 Metropolitan areas, demography 447 Metropolitan and central city fiscal problems and policies 221 Metropolitan population, components of growth 399 Metropolitan transportation planning 503 Migration 2, 64, 72, 75, 81, 83, 129, 243, 256, 339, 349, 356, 358, 363, 364, 365, 368, 383, 390, 391 Migration, adjustments 85 Migration, and efficiency 348, 381 Migration estimation 403 Migration, and housing 111, 113 Migration, impact on employment 422 Migration and income maintenance 120 Migration, intermetropolitan 353 Migration, internal California 389 Migration, interregional 350 Migration, intra-urban 107 Migration, New York 401 Migration, North-South 385 Migration problems 4 Migration, reasons for 18 Migration, rural industrialization 400 Migration, rural-urban 110, 360, 385, 386, 539 Migration, Southern black 384 Migration subsidies 395 114 Migration and urban problems 397 Migration, and wages 370 Mineral industries 191 Minimum wage 128 Minimum wages, role in development 14 Minority enterprise 51 Minority enterprise, Small Business Investment Company 409 Minority entrepreneurship 51 Minority housing 96, 104 Minority problems 2, 3, 17, 99, 102, 106, 107, 110, 162, 166, 253, 262, 264, 268, 476, 478, 481, 482, 524, 528, 537, 538, 540, 549 Mobile and immobile factors 330 Mobility and income changes 163 Mobility, Kentucky 371 Mobility, labor 250, 257 Model cities 268 Model Cities Development Corporation 409 Model, Coastal Plains 465 Model, Coastal Plains econometric 466 Model, demand 263 Model, demographic and economic growth 251 Model diffusion of innovations 521 Model, econometric 329, 367 Model econometric, Coastal Plains 452 Model, hierarchy of cities 534 Model, industrial location in forecast- ing 224 Model, input-output for Washington State 174 Model, interregional account demo- graphic 349 Model, interregional population 405 Model, multi-region 462 Model, multi-regional, multi-sector 328 Model, multi-sector 462 Model, optimal growth 325 Model, Philadelphia input-output 189 Model, population growth 407 Model, Puerto Rico tourism 500, 501 Model, regional demographic 406 Model, regional econometric growth 496 Model, regional forecasting 456 Model, regional growth 342 Model, regional input-output 209 Model, regional products accounts 332 Model, retail location 239 Model, two-region growth 330 Model, urban econometric growth 531 Model, urban form 532 Models, commuting 453 Models, decision-making 444 Models, econometric 243, 445 Models, forecasting 440, 441 Models, inter-regional population 402 Models, interregional transport 513 Models, intraregional growth 321 Models, labor supply effects 125 Models, regional 321 Models, regional development 473 Models, regional disequilibrium 479 Models, regional econometric 118 Models, regional economic 322 Models, regional interindustry 468, 469 Models, regional planning 467 Models, regional program budgeting 446 Models, shift-share 454 Models, transport cost 517 Models, transportation 505, 514 Models, univariate and multivariate 464 Models, urban causal 522 Models, urban economic 551 Money markets and regional growth 62 Multi-county districts, organization 288 Multi-county organizations 287 Multipliers, economic base 455 Multipliers, local employment 475 Multi-regional input-output, U.S. 201 Multiregional input-output model 200, 202, 203 Musical chairs 418 National growth policy 339, 546, 547 National objectives 351, 547 National urban growth policy 221, 263, 528 National urbanization 546 Natural resources 19, 22, 29 New construction industry 184, 190 New towns 354 New towns, policy 355 Nuclear power plant location 219 Occupational structure, and rural in- dustrialization 216 Operation procedures 278 Optimal growth 324, 327 Organization multi-county districts 288 Output categories 435 Output categories, capital investment 435 Output categories, community atti- tudes and involvement 435 Output categories, employment 435 Output categories, planning 435 Output categories, services generated 435 Parameter estimation 238, 241,548 Partial analysis 329 Payments, regional balance of 375 Pension funds, State and local 31 Planning 4, 60, 78, 105, 109, 121, 129, 214, 228, 243, 248, 272, 275, 283, 286, 298, 299, 302, 304, 312, 319, 335, 341, 344, 432, 449, 472, 481, 489, 544 Planning, community participation 273 Planning, comprehensive 29 Planning development policies 285 Planning, EDA programs 273, 278 Planning evaluation 5 Planning grants, EDA 408, 432 Planning, growth centers 77 Planning, metropolitan 537, 538 Planning, organization 265, 287, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 300, 301 Planning, public facilities 338 Planning, public works 274 Planning, regional 93, 309, 310, 320, 465 Planning, regional development theory 73, 308, 323, 333, 334, 340, 380 Planning, regional economic 297 Planning, transportation 503 Planning, urban 242, 314, 343, 344, 345, 549, 551 Plant location 220 Police, urban 525 Policy 546 Policy guidance 278 Political structures 270 Pollution 28 Pollution, air 25 Pollution, and city-size 374 Pollution, Colorado River Basin 21 Pollution controls 26 Population 4, 75, 79, 108, 109, 110, 193, 276, 282, 307, 349, 404, 482, 533 Population characteristics 256 Population characteristics of central city residents 524 Population characteristics, and eco- nomic activities 542 Population characteristics, metropoli- tan areas 447 Population characteristics and rural industrialization 217 Population density, characteristics 379 Population density, urban 535 Population distribution 64, 74, 77, 88, 93, 95, 138, 332, 339, 351, 352, 353, 556, 358, 361, 382, 393, 547 Population distribution model 407 Population distribution, and transpor- tation 510 Population distribution, urban 526 Population loss, local finances impact 42 115 Population, metropolitan 399 Population, metropolitan and non- metropolitan 379 Population projection, Yugoslavia 387 Population projections, California regions 388 Population, rural distribution 372 Poverty 13, 24, 99, 105, 106, 110, 157, 162, 166, 263, 264, 268, 333, 476, 481, 482, 528, 537, 549 Poverty, EDA areas 438 Poverty, and transportation 507 Poverty, urban 552 Power, electric and nuclear 219 Power structures, community 271 Predictive model 329 Private investment, Washington State 211 Probability distributions 238, 240, 241, 548 Production function 326, 329, 330, 463 Productive factor distribution 326 Program evaluation 275, 277, 281, 334, 356, 488 Program planning budgeting system 309 Program tool, demographic data 402 Programming model 329 Project evaluation 278 Project scoring 277, 281 Project selection 279 Projections 4, 60, 159, 179, 194, 212 213, 248, 304 Projections, employment 553 Projections, forecasting 274 Projections, models 440, 441 Property tax, North Carolina 61 Public facilities 228 Public facilities, urban location 394 Public investment 257, 315, 381 Public investment, data system 44, 45 Public investment, human resources 357, 363 Public investment impact 448 Public investment impact, EDA Hawaii programs 428 Public investment planning 338 Public investment policy 321 Public investment, regional impact 118 Public policy, and economic growth 305 Public policy formulation 157 Public policy impact 120 Public policy, urban and regional 305 Public subsidies 51 Public works, cost-benefit 119 Public works, EDA 411, 415, 424, 427 Public works, effects 119 Public works and infra-structure plan- ning and development 339 Public works program costs 434 Quadrat analysis 238, 240, 241, 548 Qualification criteria, EDA areas 437 Race, and migration 384 Recreation 22, 496 Redevelopment areas 432, 435 Redevelopment planning 344 Refuse collection, cost 523 Regional analysis 228 Regional balance of payments 375 Regional capital markets 48 Regional commissions 222 Regional development 28, 272, 312, 313, 335, 340 Regional development, impact of sci- ence and technology 136 Regional development, impact of sub- sidies 50 Regional development, industrial sub- sidies 227 Regional development, organization 288 Regional development planning 312, 313, 380 Regional development planning, meth- odology 323 Regional development, and transporta tion 510, 516 Regional disequilibrium model 479 Regional econometric models 118 Regional economic development 468, 474 Regional economic development, and transportation 504 Regional economic models 185, 322 Regional economic theory 247 Regional economics 278 Regional effects, Federal expenditures 132 Regional effects, manpower mobility 359 Regional equity 226 Regional Federal expenditures 126, 127 Regional fiscal and monetary policy 47 Regional forecasting model 456 Regional growth, and cities 362 Regional growth and commercial bank 33 Regional growth and finance 36, 63 Regional growth and manufacturing 231 Regional growth model 342 Regional growth model, econometric 496 Regional growth and money markets 62 Regional growth policy 395 Regional growth, role of labor force 251 Regional impact, Federal assistance plan 134 Regional impact, Federal research and development 130 Regional impact of growth centers 78 Regional impacts 249 Regional impacts of revenue sharing 131 Regional income components 475 Regional input-output model 209 Regional input-output models, U.S. 202 Regional migration 85, 350, 391 Regional model 332 Regional models 329 Regional planning 71, 74, 82, 114, 210, 287, 310, 465 Regional planning, Coastal Plains 466 Regional planning, French and American 314 Regional planning and industrial loca- tion 215 Regional planning, marine 23 Regional planning, models 467 Regional population distribution 349 Regional production functions 160 Regional science education 471 Regional studies 24, 27, 76, 90, 92, 102, 110, 158, 162, 166, 167, 179, 181, 187, 193, 194, 195, 196, 244, 266, 268, 275, 276, 280, 282, 297, 298, 299, 302, 304, 319, 328, 333, 336, 337, 341, 343, 356, 361, 375, 390, 476, 477, 478, 480, 481, 483, 486, 488, 489, 491, 492, 493, 494, 544 Regional studies, methodology 490 Regional studies, Puerto Rico 457 Regional transportation 513 Regional technologies 160 Regional wage structure 479 Renewal 105 Requalification, EDA areas 437 Research and development, differen- tials in State growth 480 Research and development effects 235 Research and development, location impact 146 Research and development, regional effects 132, 480 Residential construction and migra- tion 111 Residential quality 98 Retail location model 239 Retail trade, rural patterns 237 Revenue sharing, regional effects 131 Revenue sources, North Carolina 61 Rural industrialization 232, 400 Rural industrialization, impact 142, 143 116 Rural industrialization, impact on aged 218 Rural industrialization, impact on heads of households 217 Rural industrialization and income distribution 164 Rural industrialization and trade pat- terns 237 Rural industrialization, Wisconsin 152, 233 Rural population distribution 372 Rural poverty 315 Rural studies 72, 214, 275, 310, 481 Rural studies, growth centers 273 Rural trade patterns 237 Rural urban migration 539 Schools, mountain, role in develop ment 14 Science and technological progress 19 Science and technology, impact on re- gional development 285, 484 Science and technology, regional ef- fects 480 Science and technology, regional im- pact 136 Science and technology (research and development) 20 Science and technology (research and development) regional impact 130 Selected Indian reservation program 412 Selection of growth centers 88 Sex and economic status 152 Shift-share analysis, Texas 487 Shift-share models 454 Small Business Administration, local development company 409 Small business investment companies, North Carolina 63 Small Business Investment Company 409 Small communities, and economic growth 431 Small town, population characteristics 373 Social capital 160 Social-economic information base sys- tems 447 Social impact, rural industrialization 142 Social planning 157 Spatial economies 249 State construction technologies 184 State development 311 State exports 180 State impact analysis 170 State and local government 168 State and local pension funds 30 State new construction purchases 190 State personal consumption expendi- tures 204, 206 State planning 311 State procedures allocation formula 11 Static system 463 Statistical analysis 17 Statistical estimate procedures 16 Statistical inference 238, 240, 241, 548 Statistical measures 13 Statistical procedures 12 Structural unemployment 283 Subsidies, industrial 227 Suburbanization 270 System analysis 329 Tax, site value 345 Taxation 35 Taxation, impact 144 Taxation, local 345 Technical assistance, EDA 415 Technical assistance, EDA evaluation 420, 421 Technological change 325 Technological change, and migration 364 Technological innovation and federal policy 124 Technology, impact on regional devel- opment 484, 485 Technology, impact on rural area, Weston 146 Technology, social impact 146 Termination of qualification, EDA areas 437 Tourism 28, 496, 497 Tourism, Alaska 498 Tourism, information systems 457 Trade 83, 187 Trade agreement, impact of 148 Trade, Alaska 303 Training 3 Training projects, EDA 425 Transportation 276, 481 Transportation, commuting 101, 295 Transportation, impact, regional 510 Transportation, models 505 Transportation planning 511 Transportation policy 331 Transportation and poverty, confer- ence 507 Transportation, pricing policy 156 Unemployment 52, 128, 129, 157, 186 Unemployment, mass lay-offs 459 Unemployment and minimum wage 145 Unemployment rate, EDA areas 437 Unemployment rates 283 Unemployment, state differences 317 Unemployment statistics 285 Unemployment, structural 254, 259 Urban area activity, EDA 429 Urban dynamics 536 Urban environments 18 Urban form, and economic consump- tion 519 Urban growth 552 Urban growth, California 354 Urban hierarchy, and innovation dif- fusion 362 Urban location, methodology 242 Urban/metropolitan grow i policies 262 Urban/metropolitan growth strategies 221, 263, 528, 547 Urban places in Appalachia 66 Urban, model cities 268 Urban planning 242, 344 Urban problems and migration 397 Urban public facilities, location 394 Urban renewal 98, 546 Urban residential construction, and migration 111 Urban-rural differences 85 Urban services, costs 541 Urban size, and income 518 Urban spatial structure 238, 241, 548 Urban studies 72, 94, 99, 100, 101 102, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 111, 112, 129, 154, 155, 156, 169, 214, 236, 264, 272, 327, 343, 375, 392, 476, 478, 489, 520, 533, 534, 544 Urban transportation 506, 508, 509, 511, 512, 514 Urbanization policy 351, 447, 545, 547 Utility function 327 Wage differentials, regional 359 Wage minimum, and unemployment 145 Wage structure, region 479 Wage subsidies, role in development 14 Wages 150, 154, 155, 158, 159, 162, 390, 481 Wages and migration 363 Wages and mobility 370 Welfare criteria 327 Welfare growth rate 327 Welfare stream, discounted 330 Zoning regulation 29 117 INDEX — AUTHOR Abt Associates, Incorporated 273 Alaska, University of, Institute of So- cial, Economic and Government Research 303 Aldrich, C. K. 146 Allee, David J. 291 Alonso, William 64, 215, 244, 245, 286, 304, 305, 347, 348, 349, 350, 351, 352, 353, 354, 355, 440, 441, 518, 519 Altshuler, Alan 264 American Institute of Planners State Planning Committee 311 Anderson, Carolyn W. 167 Ange?,. Shlomo 236 Apgar, Jr, 8 William C. 356, 357, 358 Ault, Gar. L 18 Ault, Suss E. 18 Bailey, Judy A. 212 Balkus, Kozmas 503 Banas, Paul A. 265 Barchas, Mark 489 Barkin, David 11, 12, 13, 115, 149 Barnett, Harold J. 19 Basset, Kenneth E. 22 Battelle Memorial Institute 408 Beck, Elwood M. Jr. 216, 217, 233, 237, 250, 470 Bednar, James M. 484 Belkin, Lawrence 359 Bennett, Andrew J. 409 Benson, Virginia B. 93 Berger, Philip K. 360 Berner, Richard B. 168 Berry, Brian J. L. 65, 361, 362, 472, 520 Besen, Stanley M. 410 Beyers, W. B. 175 Bigson, Charles S. Jr. 219 Birnbaum, Howard 96 Blom@. Donald A. 66 Boise Cascade Center for Community Development 411, 412 Bollens, John C. 306, 307 Bond, Kenneth M. 1 Bonner, Ernest R 169, 442 Boon, Francoise 521 Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Incorpor- ated 413, 414 Boudrot, Leslie 300 Boulanger, Donald R. 116, 170, 171, 176 Bourque, Philip J. 172, 173, 174, 175 Bowles, Samuel 363 Bowman, Mary Jean 14 Boyce, David E. 443 Brackett, Carolyn A. 230 Brown, Douglas M. 196 Brumbaugh, Roderick 146 Buechner, William R. 180 Burdine, F. B. 67 Bureau of Economic Analysis Burton, Richard 242, 338 177 Campbell, Elizabeth E. 18 Capener, Harold 287, 293 Carlsson, Bo 181 Centaur Management Consultants, Incorporated 415 Center for Political Research 416 Charles River Associates 274, 504 Chase, Elizabeth S. 444 Chilton Research Services 417, 418, 419 Chiswick, B. R. 150 Chou, George 211 Chouguill, Charles L. 22 Chow, Sharon F. 117 Choy, Ronald K. H. 445 Choy, Susan McDougall 406, 251 Chu, Kong 208, 210, 308, 309, 336, 337, 446, 468, 469 Church, W. L 491 Clark, Terry N. 146, 522, 550 Clavel, Pierre 266, 269, 287, 288, 289, 290, 310 Clemente, Frank 151, 152, 164, 218, 237 Clement, M. O. 496, 497 Coccari, Ronald L. 196 Coffey, William D. 68 Coheen, P. C. 447 Cohen, Charles P. 182 Cohen, Stephen 275 Community Development Corporation 267, 409 Conrod, Charles 183 CONSAD Research Corporation, 118, 119, 417, 420, 421 Control Analysis Corporation 422 Cooper, Jack L. 30, 31 Coughlin, Robert E. 489 Council of State Planning Agencies 311 Courtney, James F. 97 Cox, Millicent 176 Cresap, McCormick and Paget Manage- ment Consultants 498 Cumberland, John H. 219 Curley, Michael D. 69 Dahlkemper, Frank 146 Darwent, David F. 70, 71, 423 Davis, David W. 272 DaVanzo, Julie 120, 121 Dean, Robert 220 Deavers, Kenneth L. 277 Decisions Studies Group 424 Denoon, David 276, 364 Development Associates, Incorporated 252, 425 Doeringer, Peter B. 253 Dotson, Louis 217 Douglass, Robert C. 231, 449 Doyle, James P. 473 Dixon, Orani 184 Dymsza, Richard B. 291 EBS Management Consultants Incor- porated 426, 427 Eberts, Paul R. 473 Economic Associates, Incorporated 450 Edel, Matthew 122, 267 Edelstein, Robert H. 185 Fahle, Vernon L. 169, 442 Fajans, Michael 518 Farhi, Andre 443 Faucett, Jack Associates 123, 178, 179 Faye, Gordon D. 32 Fearn, Robert M. 254 Fenstermaker, Van 55 Ferguson, Allen R. 277, 278 Fiekowsky, Lisa 523 Field, Jr., Alfred J. 452 Fin ley, James R. 255, 292, 293, 294 Fisher, Ben 474 Fisher, Irving N. 72, 365 Fishman, G. S. 279 Fitchett, D. A. 279 Floyd, Charles F. 453, 454 Fogelson, Robert M. 524, 525 Forrester, Jay, urban dynamics 536 Frieden, Bernard 526 Friedmann, John 73 Frucht, Padraic P. 5 Furtado, John 22 Gallagher, Charles J. 196 Gamba, Juan Carlos 505 Ganz, Alexander 527, 528 Gardner, John L. 146, 366, 475, 550 Genberg, Hans 367, 529, 530 Gift, Richard E. 312 Gilman, Glenn 124 Goldsmith, William Woodbridge 499, 500 501, 502 Goldstone, Seymour 256 Gomar, Norber 240 Goodman, Robert F. 295 Greenberg, David H. 121, 125 Griggs, Jack 33 Grubb, Norton 181 Gruben, William C. 313, 370 Hahn, Alan J. 296 Hamer, Andrew M. 221 Hamman, Charles L. 222 Hammer, Thomas 455, 489 Handel, Sidney S. 280 Hansen, Niles M. 2, 74, 75, 76. 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 257, 314, 315, 368, 370, 371, 476, 477, 478 Hanushek, Eric A. 15, 20, 153, 479 Harris, Curtis C. Jr. 186, 187, 188, 223, 224, 456 118 Harris, Curtis C. Associates, Incor- porated 126, 127 Harris, Kerr, Forster and Company Certified Public Accountants 498 Harrison, David Jr. 531, 532 Hartz, Clyde D. 316 Hashimoto, Masanori 128, 317 Haslem, John A. 34 Haurin, Donald 35, 369, 372, 373, 533 Hausner, Nancy E. 228 Hawaii, University of 428 Hekman, John 129 Henderson, J. V. 374, 534 Hertzfeld, Henry R. 535 Hettich, Walter 11 Hoffenberg, Marvin 488 Hoffman, Cary 225 Hooker, Jr., R. W. 36 Hopkins, Frank E. 187, 188 Horowitz, Ira 130, 480 Hosek, James 131 Howe, Charles W. 21, 28 Hultman, Charles W. 83, 297, 375 Iden, George 377, 376 Independent Study Board 132 Ingram, George K. 536 Iowa State University 84 Isard, Walter 22, 23, 133 Izraeli, Oded 154, 155 Izumita, Ronald M. 22 Jacknin and Company, Incorporated 318 Jackson, John E. 20 Jones, Barclay G. 287, 319, 457, 500, 501, 502 Jones, Donald W. 156 Jones, Douglas N. 320 Johnson, Harry L 37 Jones, Norman H., Jr. 277, 281 Kain, John F. 15, 20, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 104, 134, 321, 343, 378, 384, 481, 482, 506, 508, 509, 531, 532, 536, 537, 538, 539, 540, 541 Karaska, Gerald 189, 229 Kaufman, David 379, 542 Kayser, Brian D. 458 Kendrick, David 322 Keyes, Langley 268, 344 King, Pamela 190 Kirschner, Richard W. 459 Kissin, John 22 Klein, S. M. 85 Kluess, Pluma W. 269 Knowles, James C. 282 Kreider, Jan F. 21, 28 Kreps, Jr., Clifton H. 56 Krieger, Martin 24 Kubarych, Roger 191 Kusler, Jon A. 29 Lampman, Robert J. 157 Langford, Thomas W. Jr. 133 Lankford, Philip M. 158 Lawrence, Burtis 86 Leadley, Samuel M. 298, 299 Lee, Jr., Douglass B. 460 Lee, J. Finley 38 Legler, John B. 149, 345 Littlejohn, Roy Associates Incorpor- ated 429 Lowry, Ira S. 6 Luft, Harold S. 192 MacRae, C. Duncan 323, 461, 543, 544, 545 Macy, Bruce W. 316, 484 Madden, John L. 87, 552 Mai in, Patricia A. 510 Mammel, Gary 110 Martin, Juan 238, 240 Maryland Affiliate Corporation 7, 430 Mathematics 431 McDougall, Susan 387 McGee, Randolph 39 McGuire, Martin C. 40 McMillan, Douglas W. 167 Medrich, Elliott 64 Mera, Koichi 41, 159, 160, 226, 324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 462, 463 Meyer, John R. 321, 331, 364, 483, 507, 511, 512 Midwest Research Institute 485 Miernyk, William H. 25, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197 Mikesell, John L. 42 Miller, Duncan R. 43 Miller, E. 283 Miller, Robert 404 Milliken, John D. 227 Mills, Daniel Quinn 258 Milne, N. Dann 88, 89, 284, 380 Mincer, Jacob 128 Moody, Harold T. 332 Moore, Mack A. 259 Morrison, Peter A. 381 Muth, Richard F. 103, 382, 383 Nathan, Robert Associates 135, 432 Nathanson, Esther 486 National Academy of Sciences 136 National Bureau of Economic Re- search 137 Neighbor, Carolyn B. 231 Neils, Elaine M. 3 Nerlove, Marc 464 Newsom, Robert T. 487 Nichols, Vida 90 Noah, Joseph 433, 434 Noble, Gaile P. 333 North Carolina, University of 161 Nosari, Eldon J. 91 Olson, E. 16, 146 Operations Research, Incorporated 44, 45 Orleans, Peter 488, 542 Pascal, A. H. 228 Patton, Orin C. 138 Peattie, Lisa 268, 526 Peeples, Richard 139 Peltzman, Sam 26 Perazich, George 8, 451 Persky, Joseph J. 384, 482, 537, 538 Petty, William 33 Piovia, Frank 9 Planning Research Corporation 435 Plunket, Dudley H. 14 Polenske, Karen R. 141, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206 Press, S. James 464 Puffer, Frank W. 332 Pugh, Olin S. 46 Quigley, John M. 98, 100, 104 The RAND Corporation 385, 386 Rasmussen, David W. 162, 163 Ray, Robert M. 246 Regional Economic Development In- stitute, Incorporated 436, 437 Regional Research Institute 214 Reiner, Thomas A. 490 Richter, Charles 376, 465, 466, 467 Riddel, Jeffrey H. 207 Roberts, Paul O. 513 Roberts, Robert E. 484 Robin, Robert S. 140 Rodwin, Lloyd 546, 547 Rogers, Andrei 238, 239, 240, 241, 387, 388, 389, 402, 403, 404, 405, 406, 407, 514, 548 Rogstad, Barry K. 5 Rojek, Dean G. 142, 237 Rothblatt, Donald N. 334 Rothenberg, Jerome 243, 270, 335, 549 Runge, Carlisle P. 491 Russel, William R. 105, 390 Salama, O. A. 23 Schafer, Robert 134 Schaffer, William A. 208, 209, 210, 308, 309, 336, 337, 446, 468, 469 Schiffel, Dennis 256 Schuessler, Robert 391 Schuler, R. 72 Scott, John T., Jr. 143, 232 Scott, Robert Haney 47, 211 Sears, David W. 291 Sears, John T. 25 Seiler, Lauren H. 271 Seyfarth, Richard H. 22 Shackelford, Jean 92 Shefer, Daniel 247 Shell hammer, Kenneth L. 195, 196 Shimshoni, Daniel 492 Sieb, G. L. 393 Silver, Irving R. 106, 107 Silvers, Arthur 300 119 Sirmans, C. F. 454 Smith, Barton 52, 108, 109, 392 Smith, James F. 198 Smolensky, Eugene 242, 338 Snarr, Richard 260 Sofaer, Anna 300 Solenberger, Peter W. 182 Spencer, Lee and Busse Architects 498 Staley, Manly E. 493 Stevens, Benjamin H. 230, 231, 248, 489 Stewart, Charles T. 93 Stober, William J. 144 Straszheim, Mahlon R. 48, 515, 516 Strauss, Robert P. 49 Streiter, Sally 448 Summers, Gene F. 143, 151, 152, 164, 216, 217, 218, 233, 339, 470 Sundquist, James L. 272 Sutter, E. Malcolm Jr. 209 Syefried, W. R. 175 SYSTAN, Incorporated 50 Tamura, Hironkuni 212 Tannen, Michael 165 Tarpley, Fred A. Jr. 234 Tatlock, Richard 22 Teitz, Michael B. 249, 394 Thalheimer, Richard 43 Thomas, Morgan D. 94 Tiebout, Charles M. 213 Tideman, T. Nicolaus 26, 51, 145, 242, 285, 338, 346, 517 Till, Thomas 340, 438 Tollen, Robert D. 494 Tolley, George S. 16, 27, 52, 146, 235, 369, 395, 396, 397, 398, 550 Tucker, Gordon 182 Udis, Bernard 21, 28 Ufen, Charles H. 53, 54 Uppercue, Quentin 399 Viola, Mary M. 301 Wacht, Richard F. 261 Wandesforde-Smith, Geoffrey Wang, Yi 550 Warren, Robert 302, 341 341 Webb, Charles A. 471 Weeks, Eldon E. 171, 175, 495 Weidenbaum, Murray L. 57, 58 Weinstein, Robert 4 Weischedel, Ralph 443 Weiss, Randall D. 17 Wells, John V. 184 Weston, Rafael 96 Whiston, Isabelle B. 204, 206 Whitelaw, W. Ed 60 Wightman, James W. 59 Wilde, James A. 61 Williams, Gerald W. 147 Wilson, Rhea 166 Wineman, Wesley H. 196 Winger, Alan R. 62, 105, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 342, 551, 552 Witt, Toms S. 18 Wolf Management Services 10, 439 Wonnacott, Paul 148 Yanggen, Douglas A. 28 Yett, Donald E. 282 Yukhin, Richard 95, 371, 400 Zymelman, Manuel 262, 263, 401, 553 120 INDEX— GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION Alaska, regional economic analysis 320 Alaska, tourism 498 Alaska, trade 303 Appalachia, urban 66 Boston, mass transit 515 California, internal migration 389 California, regional population pro- jections 388 California, urban growth 354 Canada-U.S., auto agreement 148 Coastal Plains, econometric model 452, 465 Coastal Plains manpower mobility 376, 377 Coastal Plains, planning 466 Coastal Plains, public finance 49 Colorado River Basin, pollution 21 Connecticut, defense adjustment 135 France, regional planning 314 Georgia 453 Hawaii, EDA programs 428 Hawaii County, growth centers 68 Hoboken, economic development 545 Illinois 235 Illinois, impact of rural industrializa- tion 142 Illinois, rural impact of technology 146 Illinois, rural industrialization 143, 151, 164, 216, 217, 218 Illinois, rural industrialization and trade patterns 237 Japanese economic structure 200 Kansas, rural population distribution 372 Kentucky, eastern mountain entrepre- neurship 14 Kentucky, rural industrialization 400 Kentucky, mobility 371 Lexington, Kentucky, as growth center 81 Massachusetts, defense adjustment 116 New England, urban development 527 New Jersey, unemployment and mini- mum wage 145 New York, labor force growth 401 New York City, police 525 North Carolina, finance 34, 38 North Carolina income distribution 161 North Carolina, property tax 61 North Carolina, revenue sources 61 North Carolina, SBA lending 54 North Carolina, small business invest- ment companies 63 North Dakota, rural population distri- bution 372 Northeast, state and local fiscal policy 59 North-south differences 85 Ozarks region growth centers 91 Pennsylvania, unemployment and minimum wage 145 Philadelphia, input-output model 189 Philadelphia, manufacturing 229 Philadelphia, Viet Nam adjustment 133 Puerto Rico, tourism 457, 499, 501, 502 Puerto Rico, tourism model 500 Rio Grande Valley, development 340 St. Louis 18 St. Louis, population density 535 South Carolina, input-output 207 South Dakota, growth centers and Indian reservations 1 Southeast banking structure 56 Southeast, capital market 30 Southeast, health services 261 Southern black migration 384 Southern economic development 539 Tennessee, capital markets 37 Texas, employment growth 487 Texas, growth centers 69, 89 Texas, shift-share analysis 487 Texas, Victoria as growth center 67 Viet Nam, impact on Philadelphia eco- nomy 133 Washington State 175 Washington State, agriculture 495 Washington State, economic change 174 Washington State, income multipliers 173 Washington State, input-output 171, 172, 174, 211 West Virginia 197 West Virginia, local finance 42 Weston, rural impact of technology 146 Wisconsin 29 Wisconsin, rural industrialization 152, 233 121 / PENN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES qoeT \ 4