2c on M rrUpUbcU Univei NATIONWIDE NATURAL DISASTER WARNING SYSTEM REPORT with BACKGROUND INFORMATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Environmental Science Services Administration A Proposed NATIONWIDE NATURAL DISASTER WARNING SYSTEM NADWARN REPORT with BACKGROUND INFORMATION Prepared by The Natural Disaster Warning Survey Group: Composed of Representatives of: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION COAST GUARD ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICE OF EMERGENCY PLANNING ,<°7v \ / U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE John T. Connor, Secretary ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION Robert M. White, Administrator October 1965 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://www.archive.org/details/proposednationwiOOunit form cD-m UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT (11-63) (PRES. BY -m /f "I "" Memorandum U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION TO Administrator Environmental Science Services Administration date: October 6, 1965 FROM Chairman Natural Disaster Warning Survey Group subject: Proposed Natural Disaster Warning System The Natural Disaster Warning Survey (NADWAS) Group has completed its assigned task. Our report is presented herewith in the form of a proposed nationwide Natural Disaster Warning (NADWARN) System with recommendation for implementation in three phases. All pertinent views and problems of the participating agencies were taken into account and it is believed that the proposed System is responsive to the capabilities of the Federal Government and to the need for protection of lives and property of the public. A list of participants is given in Section VII, D of the Appendix. Sincere thanks and appreciation are expressed to all members of the Group and to their alternates who participated so diligently in the preliminary survey and in the development of the proposed System. £, BUY U.S. SAVINGS BONDS REGULARLY ON THE PAYROLL SAVINGS PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Title Page _ i Memorandum of Transmittal iii Table of Contents v 1.0 Preface.. 1 2.0 Introduction 3 3.0 Benefits of the NAD WARN System. 5 4.0 Goals and Objectives 6 4.1 The NAD WARN System Goals 6 4.2 The NAD WARN System Ob- jectives 6 5.0 Natural Hazards Detection 7 5.1 National Weather Radar Net- work 7 5.2 River and Flood Measurement Network 7 5.3 National Upper- Air Sounding Network 7 5.4 Pacific Seismic and Tide Meas- urement Networks 7 5.5 Cooperative Detection Net- 7.0 works 7 5.6 Special Detection Systems 8 6.0 Natural Disaster Warning Commu- nications System. _- 9 6.1 Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network. _ 9 8.0 6.2 Backup for the System 9 6.2.1 Continuous VHF Radio Transmissions 9 6.2.2 Telecommunications Facilities of the Office of Civil De- fense 9 9.0 Page 6.2.3 Amateur Radio 9 6 .3 Positive Alerting Devices 12 6.3.1 Positive Teletypewriter Alert. 12 6.3.2 Public Siren in Natural Disas- ter Alerts 12 6.3.3 Radio and Television Receiver Alert....... 13 6.4 Communications Between Warning Offices 13 6.4.1 Radar Report and Warning Co- ordination Teletypewriter System 13 6.4.2 Emergency Radio-Backup Communication System Be- tween Warning Offices 13 6.5 Emergency Power 13 6.6 Communications in the Pacific Ocean Area 13 6.7 Dependability of Radio Com- munications Links 13 Community Preparedness 14 7.1 Uniform Warning Terminology. 14 7.2 Community Preparedness Plans. 14 7.3 Response to Warnings 14 7.4 The National Industry Advisory Committee Study 14 Implementation 15 8.1 Phase I 15 8.2 Phase II 16 8.3 Phase III 16 8.4 Impact on Other Weather Serv- ices . 17 Research 19 List of Illustrations Figure 1. — Primary Natural Disaster Warning Communications System Figure 2. — Backup Natural Disaster Warn- ing Communications System- Figure 3. — Number of Communities, by State, To Be Connected to Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network Figure 4. — Phasing of Implementation Page Page Figure 5. — Phased Implementation of Ex- isting and Planned Weather 10 Surveillance Radar (WSR- 57) Network 16 11 Figure 6. — Phased Implementation of Nat- ural Disaster Warning Tele- typewriter Network 17 Figure 7. — Phased Implementation of Con- 12 tinuous VHF Radio Trans- 15 missions 18 TABLE OF CONTENTS Appendix — Background Information (For these listings, see Report With Background Information, available as separate publication from the Environmental Science Services Administration.) Page APPENDIX— Background Information. _. 21 Abbreviations 21 Section I — Natural Hazards 23 Introduction 23 Statistics of Natural Hazards 25 1. Meteorological Hazards 25 a. Tornadoes and severe thun- derstorms 25 b. Hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones of lesser intensity 26 c. Winter storms 29 d. Drought (including dust- storms) and fire-weather. _ 31 e. Clear-air turbulence 32 2. Hydrological Hazards 32 a. Floods, including flash floods. 32 b. Tsunamis 33 c. Seiches 33 d. Icebergs 35 3. Other Geophysical Hazards 35 a. Earthquakes 35 b. Avalanches, landslides, and volcanoes 36 4. Astrophysical Hazards 37 a . Geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances and polar cap absorption 37 b . Cosmic radiation 37 Brief Statements of Agency Responsi- bilities 38 Section II — The Current Natural Disas- ter Warning System 43 Introduction 43 1. Warning 43 2 . The Warning Process 43 Meteorology 43 Detection 43 Tornadoes and Severe Thunder- storms 45 1. Detection 45 2. Data Processing and Prepara- tion of Warnings 45 Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Tropical Cyclones of Lesser Intensity 46 1. Detection 46 2. Data Processing and Prepara- tion of Warnings 46 Winter Storms 47 Fire Weather and Duststorms 47 Clear-air Turbulence and Other Avi- ation Hazards 48 Hydrology 48 Floods, Including Flash Floods 48 1 . Detection 48 2. Data Processing and Prepara- tion of Warnings 49 vi APPENDIX— Continued Section II — Continued Hydrology — Continued Page Flash-Flood Warning Service 50 Tsunamis 50 Seismic Sea Wave Warning Sys- tem 50 1. Detection 51 2. Data Processing and Prep- aration of Warnings 51 Seiches (on the Great Lakes) 52 Icebergs and Sea Ice 52 Other Geophysical Fields 52 Earthquakes 52 Section III — Present Communications Facilities 55 Introduction 55 Broadcast of Emergency Weather Warnings by Commercial AM-FM- TV Stations . ..__ 55 Distribution of Meteorological Disas- ter Warnings 55 Distribution of Flash-Flood and Flood Warnings 60 Distribution of Tsunami Warnings 60 Distribution of Earthquake Warnings. 61 Special Non-Government Communi- cations Facilities 62 1 . Emergency Broadcast System ... 62 2. Amateur Radio 62 3. Citizens' Band Facilities 63 4. Citizens' Radio Service 63 Office of Civil Defense Communica- tions Facilities 63 1. Civil Defense Broadcast Stat- tion Protection Program 63 2. National Warning System (NAWAS) 63 3. National Communications Sys- tem No. 1 (NACOM 1 ) 66 4. National Communications Sys- tem No. 2 (NACOM 2) 66 Section IV — Detection and Processing Problems 69 Detection Problems 69 Introduction 69 Meteorological and Hydrological Ob- servations 69 Surface Observations 69 Upper-Air Observations 70 Radar Observations 72 Meteorological Satellites 73 Seismological and Tide Observations _ _ 74 Earthquakes 74 Data Processing Problems 74 Introduction 74 APPENDIX— Continued Section IV — Continued Data Processing Problems — Continued Page Meteorological and Hydrological Data 74 World Meteorological Center, Suitland, Md.__ 74 National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla 75 Weather Bureau Office, Honolulu, Hawaii 75 Severe Local Storm Forecast Cen- ter and River Forecast. Center, Kansas City, Mo 75 River Forecast Centers 75 U.S. Army Coastal Engineering Research Center 76 Tide Data, 76 Tsunami Warnings i 76 Shore and Estuary Warnings 76 Earthquake Warnings 76 Section V — Problems of Public Under- standing and Reaction During Emer- gencies 77 Introduction 77 Terminology and Education 77 Meteorological Hazards Preparedness Plans 79 Hurricane Preparedness Plans 79 Tornado Preparedness Plans 79 Hydrological Hazards Preparedness Plans 79 Flash-Flood Preparedness Plans 79 Flood Preparedness Plan 80 Tsunamis 80 Other Geophysical Hazards Prepar- edness Plans 80 Earthquakes 80 Post-Disaster Surveys 80 Section VI — Scope of Proposed Natural Disaster Warning System 81 Introduction 81 APPENDIX— Continued Section VI — Continued Page Communications Between Warning Offices _ 81 1. RAWARC"SystemV/_"^^^^ 81 2. Hurricane Circuit___ 82 3. Emergency Power 82 4. Emergency Backup Radio Com- munications 82 The Natural Disaster Warning Com- munications System 82 1. Outdoor Sirens 82 2. Radio (AM and FM) and Tele- vision Broadcasts 82 a. Emergency Alerting Re- ceivers 83 b. NIAC Natural Disaster Warning Study Group _ 83 3. Statewide Public Dissemination Teletypewriter Networks 83 4. Teletypewriter Positive Alerting Device 84 5. Continuous VHF Radio Trans- missions 86 6. Tsunami Warning System 86 7. National Warning System (NAWAS) 87 8. Amateur Radio 87 9. Feedback 87 THE NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM 87 Section VII — Factual Information 89 A. Legislative and Executive Orders. 89 B. List of Natural Disaster Pre- paredness Material 99 C. Definitions; and Communica- tions Methods 106 D. Natural Disaster Warning Sur- vey Group 112 Tables 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 Page Natural Hazards 24 The Annual Number of Tornadoes and Tornado Deaths Reported in the United States, 1916-64 26 Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Per 10 Years 27 Loss of Life and Damage Estimates From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (1915-64) 27 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Oc- currences by Months for the North Atlantic, 1886-1964 27 Some Notable Winter Storms 29 Page 1/7 Estimated Frequency of Floods 33 1/8 Loss of Life and Property in the United States From Floods 34 1/9 Principal Damaging Tsunamis in the Pacific, 1946-65 ( to date) 34 1/10 Expected Earthquake Magnitude and Frequency 36 1/11 Earthquake Energy 36 1/12 Major U.S. Earthquakes and Loss of Life____ 37 III/l Communications Methods, by Class. 57 C/l Communications Methods, by Class (Defined) 108 vn List of Illustrations Page Figure 1/1 Incidence of Some Types of Disasters 23 Figure 1/2 Tornado Frequency by States 25 Figure 1/3 Tornado Frequency by Months in the United States, 1916-64 25 Figure 1/4 Average Number of Days With Thunderstorms Per Year 26 Figure 1/5 Principal Hurricane Tracks During the Warmest Sea- son 26 Figure 1/6 Devastating North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks, 1955- 64 28 Figure 1/7 Drought Severity in the Northeastern United States, August 22, 1965 __ 32 Figure 1/8 Percent of Months 1931-60 With Severe or Extreme Drought 33 Figure 1/9 Number of Floods and Flash Floods in Which American Red Cross As- sistance Was Given, 1955- 64 33 Figure 1/10 Distribution of Estimated Flood Losses in the United States by Major River Systems, 1925-63__ 33 Figure 1/11 Earthquakes of the United States Through 1963 35 Figure 1/12 Seismograph Stations in Operation in the United States, July 1965 36 Figure 1/13 Annual Percentage of Nights on Which Auroras May Be Seen in the Northern Hemisphere Under Favorable Visual Conditions 38 Figure 1/14 Comparison of Sunspot Number With Frequency of Magnetic Storms 39 Figure 1/15 Annual Variation of Mag- netic Storms (1937-64)_ 39 Figure II/l Elements of a Warning System 43 Figure II/2 Weather Bureau RADAR Network 44 Page Figure II/3 Detection Networks and Their Use in the Prepara- tion of Warnings for Me- teorological Hazards 45 Figure II/4 Weather Bureau Hurricane Forecast Centers and Areas of Responsibility in the Atlantic, Carib- bean, and Gulf of Mex- ico 46 Figure II/5 Weather Bureau Hurricane Forecast Centers and Areas of Responsibility in the Pacific 46 Figure II/6 Area Forecast Centers and Their Areas of Responsi- bility 47 Figure IT/7 River and Flood Forecast Service 48 Figure II/8 River and Flood Forecast and Warning System 49 Figure II/9 Existing Local Community Flash -Flood Warning Systems 50 Figure 11/10 Seismic Sea Wave Warn- ing System 52 Figure 11/11 Worldwide Network of Standardized Seismo- graph Stations 53 Figure III/l Washington, D.C., Local Circuit Users 56 Figure III/2 The Flow of Warnings for Severe Winter Weather and Nontropical Storms_ 57 Figure III/3 Service A, April 1, 1965— 58 Figure III/4 Fixed Aeronautical Com- munications Services — Service "C" System, March 1,1965 2 59 Figure III/5 Service "O" System 59 Figure III/6 Office of Civif Defense Na- tional Warning System (NAWAS) __„_____—_ 61 Figure IV/1 Cooperative Hurricane Re- porting Network 71 Figure I V/2 Internal RADAR Report and Warning Coordina- tion (RAWARC) Sys- tem 73 Figure VI/1 Public Dissemination Tele- typewriter Circuits 84 Figure VI/2 Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network. 85 vin 1.0 PREFACE The Natural Disaster Warning Survey (NAD WAS) Group, comprised of representatives of six Federal Agencies 1 concerned with the detection, pre- diction, and warning of natural disasters and with preparedness and relief measures, has completed a 4-month study of natural disaster warning services. Following the 1965 Palm Sunday tornadoes, the Chief of the Weather Bureau appointed a survey team to conduct a postanalysis and to recommend measures designed to reduce deaths and injuries in future tornadoes. The Secretary of Commerce, when presented with the report and recommendations, and in consideration of the total natural disaster problem, directed that a more comprehensive study of all natural hazards be undertaken. The Weather Bureau (subsequently merged into the Environmental Science Services Ad- ministration) was accordingly directed to seek the cooperation of other Federal Government agencies in developing a nationwide Natural Disaster Warning System. These agencies cooperated enthusiastically, and their contributions are gratefully acknowledged. The Natural Disaster Warning Survey Group was asked to refrain from long-range considerations requiring research and development. It was in- structed to concentrate on technically feasible improvements which could be put into effect, beginning immediately, and which would be compatible with future technological developments. This report summarizes the findings of the Group and recommends that greatly expanded and improved nationwide natural disaster warning services be provided by the Government as soon as possible. A nationwide Natural Disaster Warning (NAD WARN) System is proposed as the best means of accomplishing prompt and efficient warning everywhere. The system would have many benefits, both humanitarian and economic. It would appreciably reduce loss of life and property damage from natural disasters. Paul H. Kutschenreuter, Chairman, Natural Disaster Warning Survey Group. October 5, 1965. 1 Environmental Science Services Administration, Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engi- neers, Federal Communications Commission, Office of Civil Defense, and Office of Emer- gency Planning. 2.0 INTRODUCTION Every State of the Nation experiences natural disasters. Tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis (seismic sea waves), blizzards, forest fires, earth- quakes, severe local storms, and other adverse weather conditions cause economic losses to our country averaging between $11 billion and $15 bil- lion a year. The annual toll of lives averages be- tween 500 and 600. The impact in human misery is incalculable. In September 1900, the Galveston hurricane took 6,000 lives, with immense damage, mainly from storm tide inundation. In 1906, the San Francisco earthquake and fire did $1.6 billion damage and cost 700 lives. A single major tornado outbreak in the Middle West in 1925 took 689 lives and caused 1,980 injuries; one hurricane in Florida in 1928 killed 1,836 people. In 1946, a seismic sea wave in Hawaii generated by an Aleutian earthquake caused 173 fatalities and $25 million damage. The posthurricane flood- ing produced by Hurricane Diane in 1955 dam- aged nearly $1 billion worth of property in the northeastern United States. The steady growth of population and property values in recent years has greatly increased the potential for logs of life and property damage in natural disasters. At the same time, our warn- ing systems for natural disasters have improved markedly as a result of the application of new technology. The average annual loss of life rela- tive to the population, and the average annual loss of property relative to property values, have steadily declined. The gains that have been made are directly at- tributable to : — improved warnings made possible by sig- nificant advances in weather, river, and seis- mic sea wave prediction, detection tech- nology, and communications; — prompt warning dissemination to the public by the mass communications media ; — hetter public understanding of disaster warnings; and — well-organized preparedness programs in some geographic areas. The improvements have been sporadic, however, and frequently have been in response to particu- lar disasters which have revealed deficiencies in the operating warning system. A succession of violent natural disasters in the United States during the past 2 years has caused extensive loss of life and property damage. The Alaskan earthquake and ensuing tidal wave of early 1964 killed 156 people and caused damage of more than $400 million. The 1964 hurricane sea- son in Florida, the gulf coast, and other south- eastern States was the worst since the 1930's; 49 were killed, and damage was more than $500 million. During the winter of 1964-65, floods in the Far West took 45 lives and damaged property worth $500 million. The Palm Sunday tornadoes that ripped through the Midwest on April 11, 1965, killed 272, injured hundreds more, and caused property damage of more than $250 million. Florida and Louisiana suffered extensively from the ravages of Hurricane Betsy in September 1965. This series of natural disasters has emphasized the urgent need for a broad survey and analysis of our natural disaster warning capabilities. The NADWAS Group proposes a nationwide Natural Disaster Warning (NADWARN) Sys- tem as the best means of accomplishing prompt and efficient warning virtually everywhere. This report defines the steps that must be taken to ex- tend the benefits of a comprehensive Natural Dis- aster Warning System to all the people of this Nation as soon as possible. Details on all of the steps mentioned in this Report will be found in the Appendix. 3.0 BENEFITS OF THE NADWARN SYSTEM Even if a perfect warning system could be de- vised, it would still be impossible to eliminate all loss of life and property damage from natural dis- asters. Some people will always ignore or dis- count warnings, and some, including the aged, chil- dren, and the hospitalized, may be unable to act unassisted. Buildings and installed property can be protected only to a limited extent. Disaster sometimes strikes too quickly for people to take cover, or too violently for available cover to afford protection. The NADWAS Group recognized that natural disasters will always exact a toll, but its study and analysis indicate that an improved system will lead to significant benefits. Community prepared- ness programs, including public information ma- terials and dissemination of information, are an integral part of the NADWARN System. Our best estimates are that : The NADWARN System : 1. Could reduce deaths from tornadoes, hurri- canes, floods, and tsunamis by as much as one half ; 2. Could reduce economic losses by more than $100 million a year; 3. Will reduce post-disaster impact confusion; and 4. Will provide, as a benefit to every community served by a local-area radio station or daily news- paper, 24-hour weather service comparable to that currently available to only 224 communities. With effective warning, physical defenses such as evacuation and shelter are possible, advance preparation can be made for speedy rescue and re- lief, and post-impact confusion and distress can be reduced. Our present system for dealing with natural dis- asters is inadequate in detection, in dissemination of warnings to many sections of the country, and in community warning programs. The NAD- WARN System is designed to improve all natural disaster warning procedures and practices on a nationwide basis. 4.0 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 4.1 The NAD WARN System Goals Are: 1. To make effective use of existing technology and of existing facilities of all participating Gov- ernment agencies ; 2. To apply available techniques and facilities to minimize inadequacies found in existing facil- ities and operations ; 3. To extend the most effective practices of the present warning systems to all areas; 4. To provide for the distribution of all warn- ings, including those for additional types of hazards, as advancing technology permits; 5. To encourage and assist the individual, the community, and responsible governmental agen- cies to design and implement preparedness plans for effective response to natural disaster warn- ings ; and 6. To provide a single authentic channel be- tween the warning agency and the public for the receipt of natural disaster warnings and for the denial or verification of rumors. 4.2 The NAD WARN System Objectives Are: 1. To improve natural hazards detection capa- bilities through expansion of the national weather radar network and the improvement of weather, river, seismic, and tidal observing capabilities; 2. To provide prompt and reliable dissemina- tion of natural disaster warnings to every radio and television station, newspaper, and Federal and State agency within the United States, as justified by the nature of the hazard and the population of the area, through establishment of a compre- hensive nationwide natural disaster warning com- munications system ; 3. To provide positive alerting directly to the general public through the use of sirens and by making use of special equipment being developed for national emergency warnings through radio or television ; and 4. To provide assistance to local communities in preparing community warning plans and to assist them further by participating in prepared- ness seminars, provision of publications, films, speakers, etc. 5.0 NATURAL HAZARDS DETECTION Warning must start with detection. The present detection system for various natural hazards is seriously deficient in many parts of the United States. Immediate improvements are essential. It is proposed that the detection system be aug- mented and improved as described below. 5.1 National Weather Radar Network The National Weather Radar Network remains incomplete in many areas of the United States which are subject to severe weather hazards and where such radars are essential in detection and tracking of the hazards. Much of the National Weather Radar Network is still served by World War II surplus and obsolete equipment. These radars are inefficient and difficult to main- tain. The National Weather Radar Network should be completed and be equipped with modern weather detection radars, with primary emphasis on those areas most frequented by natural disas- ter hazards. The procurement and installation of 20 additional radars together with necessary oper- ating staffs are required. Provision must be made for direct radar in- formation at every office with natural disaster warning responsibility. This can be achieved with relative economy by the installation of radar re- peaterscopes which use ordinary telephone trans- mission lines to relay radar images to other points. Approximately 100 repeaterscope installations will be required to provide direct scope viewing to those Weather Bureau offices that are now dependent upon verbal telephoned information from radar operators in other localities. 5.2 River and Flood Measurement Network Many watersheds and local communities need additional modern river gaging and precipitation measurement equipment for the detection of gen- eral floods and flash floods. Flash-flood warning networks have been organized in only 80 commu- nities. These are generally cooperative networks, with Weather Bureau and local community par- ticipation. Flash-flood warning networks should be established in about 500 more communities. Improvement in the overall reporting network will require the procurement and installation of about 300 precipitation gages and 75 river gages of modern design, capable in many cases of remote telemetering of data. River-stage and flood forecasts are prepared on a daily basis by River Forecast Centers and dis- tributed to River District Offices as the basis for the preparation of detailed local forecasts and warnings of floods. Many River Forecast Centers now make intensive calculations manually, al- though modern digital computer methods can greatly reduce the time for the work and increase the accuracy and completeness of the guidance ma- terial. Computers with the proper capacity should be made available at River Forecast Offices. 5.3 National Upper- Air Sounding Network The national upper-air sounding network is the basic free atmosphere detection system for large- scale atmospheric weather patterns which deter- mine the location, and control the development and movement, of severe weather phenomena. During the past 10 to 15 years, the number of stations in the national upper-air sounding network has not kept pace with the need for such observations, es- pecially in important areas of frequent storm gen- eration. It is essential that existing gaps in this network be filled. The network should be ex- panded by installations at about 21 points in vital areas, especially off the east and west coasts of the United States and in the Caribbean area. In addi- tion, 12 existing wornout and obsolete sets of equipment in the Caribbean area and in Mexico must be replaced. 5.4 Pacific Seismic and Tide Measurement Networks The Coast and Geodetic Surveys Seismic Sea Wave Warning System in the Pacific Basin is based on collection and evaluation of reports from seismic and tide stations. The networks are too sparse to afford precise calculations of the onset and strength of seismic sea waves generated by earthquake activity under the ocean or near its border. Tide readings must be taken at remote points over vast areas of the Pacific. This adds to the critical time required to accumulate reports at the Honolulu Observatory for computer analysis ; this time can be shortened by the installation of remote-reading tide gages. It is proposed that an automatic system of 70 additional tide gages be installed to measure and report seismic sea waves, and that five additional seismic observatories be established to complete the vital detection networks in the Pacific area. 5.5 Cooperative Detection Networks Special cooperative observation networks are part of the system for detecting tornadoes, floods, and hurricanes. Auxiliary volunteer observers are recruited to assist in watching for tornadoes and other severe local storms and to report them to local Weather Bureau offices. Volunteers in the flood warning networks supply information on precipitation and river stage measurements. Along the coasts, volunteer observers measure wind, tide, and other elements and send reports to the Hurricane Forecast Center. These networks have gradually lost their effectiveness because the warning agency has been unable to maintain suffi- cient personal contact with the volunteer members. The networks should be augmented, revitalized, and improved with appropriate equipment. Tele- metering equipment should be installed where es- sential to ensure reports from key points on a continuing basis where volunteers cannot serve around the clock. 5.6 Special Detection Systems Detection of natural hazards is assisted in vitally important ways by : the use of aircraft for the re- connaissance of ocean areas; the data from weath- er satellites; and the routine reporting of upper- air conditions from selected points in the oceans, maintained year-round by the Ocean Station Ves- sel Network in accordance with international agreement. These special detection systems are essential parts of the present detection system and must be maintained. 6.0 NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM A comprehensive and reliable communications system is essential both for the dissemination of disaster warnings to the public and for the ex- change of information within the warning system. Dissemination to the public is achieved most ef- fectively by direct alert, using sirens or other attention-getting techniques, and through the mass media (radio, television, and newspapers) which can elaborate, explain, and recommend appropri- ate action. Sirens are designed to attract atten- tion, and the public is accustomed to turning to radio and television for information and instruc- tions during emergencies. The Survey Group pro- poses the early establishment of a comprehensive and reliable communications system utilizing di- rect alert, the mass media, and other channels as described. With the adoption of these methods, the present patchwork of heterogeneous commu- nications systems would be replaced by a nation- wide Natural Disaster Warning Communications System as shown in figure 1 with emergency back- up as shown in figure 2. 6.1 Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewrit- er Network Local and area teletypewriter networks for transmitting forecasts and warnings have proven effective in providing mass communications media with verbatim "hard" copy of disaster warnings for dissemination to the public. However, only 90 communities have local networks and only 12 percent of the area of the country now has tele- typewriter circuits connecting the mass media to warning offices. There is an urgent need to extend areawide teletypewriter service to every commu- nity with a radio station or daily newspaper. This would insure prompt receipt of forecasts and dis- aster warnings by some 2,900 communities in the United States (see fig. 3). It would also bring to those communities the additional benefits of complete around-the-clock routine weather fore- caste and other weather information currently available in the vicinity of only 224 communities, which includes the 90 communities which now have local networks. The Survey Group strongly urges this extension of areawide teletypewriter circuits across the entire country, to establish at an early date a nationwide Natural Disaster Warning Tele- typewriter Network. 6.2 Backup for the System Backup should be provided in three ways- through continuous VHF radio transmissions, OCD telecommunications, and amateur radio. 6.2.1 Continuous VHF Radio Transmissions To insure reliability of communications to the public during disasters, there must be emergency backup. Backup facilities should extend from warning offices to the mass media; to Federal, State, and community officials with emergency re- sponsibility ; and to schools, hospitals, and other essential facilities with concentrations of people. Backup facilities are needed in case of power fail- ure, which occurred in New Orleans during Hurri- cane Betsy. As the first of three types of backup, the Survey Group proposes the extension of the continuous VHF radio transmissions already proven in operation by the Weather Bureau at New York City, Chicago, and Kansas City. VHF radio transmission facilities should be extended to all cities of 100,000 population or greater where there is an ESSA office. The Group also proposes that pretuned VHF receivers be provided by the Federal Government to agencies, establishments, and officials essential to the warning process. 6.2.2 Telecommunications Facilities or the Office of Civil Defense The Office of Civil Defense operates the Na- tional Warning System (NAWAS), a comprehen- sive party-line network of telephone circuits con- necting National Warning Centers with State and local Civil Defense Offices, police stations, etc., in 755 communities. NAWAS can be extended to any number of additional communities. The 29 Weather Bureau offices which also are connected to this system have found it valuable for transmitting weather warnings directly to officials in adjacent counties and especially for obtaining feedback in- formation on emergency action which has been taken on tornadoes and other severe weather situ- ations. The Survey Group recommends that NAWAS be extended to every ESSA office with local warning responsibility and that the circuits be extended to additional communities as feasible. 6.2.3 Amateur Radio Participation of amateur radio operators, Citi- zens' Band Units, and Citizens' Radio Service sta- tions in provision of temporary emergency com- munications during and after natural disasters has greatly assisted warning agencies and public au- thorities in coping with the twofold need to dis- seminate public information and to communicate with each other when ordinary facilities have been rendered inoperative. The NADWAS Group rec- ommends that the great assistance that can be rendered by these communications groups be rec- ognized in community preparedness plans as part of the backup communications facilities available 7&9-8>02 O— 65 PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM LOCAL, STATE, AND FEDERAL AUTHORITIES OUTDOOR SIRENS RESPONSIBLE WARNING AGENCY cc LU LU 1- on uo ^ < LU oo Q_ O >- < LU _l LU 1- < O Z z z O RADIO, TV (newspapers; Figure 1 10 BACK-UP NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM LOCAL, STATE, AND FEDERAL AUTHORITIES HOSPITALS, SCHOOLS, ETC. RESPONSIBLE WARNING AGENCY Z> ^ E — 5 ^ 7 C£ cn > (NAWAS: NATIONAL WARNING) ( SYSTEM (OFFICE OF ) ( CIVIL DEFENSE) ) AMATEUR RADIO (EMERGENCY) RADIO, TV (NEWSPAPERS) PUBLIC Figure 2 11 NUMBER OF COMMUNITIES, BY STATE, TO BE CONNECTED TO NATURAL DISASTER WARNING TELETYPEWRITER NETWORK 52 26 46 26 21 17 21 33 63 VI 2 56 16 172 36 75 119 85 109 55 70 142 86 109 39 73 28 9 9 TO 31 47 ■6 34 D.C. 1 28 32 52 189 59 53 85 5 4 i 7 9 109 65 98 TOTAL 2,896 Figure 3 under the Natural Disaster Warning Communica- tions System. 6.3 Positive Alerting Devices Whenever possible, the mass media should be positively alerted, either by teletypewriter or by backup continuous VHF radio transmissions. A simple and inexpensive positive alerting device is available for use on teletypewriters and should be installed in radio and television stations for natural disaster warnings. A similar device can be used in connection with backup continuous VHF radio transmissions. Means also are needed for alerting the general public to the fact that natural disaster warnings are being broadcast or are imminent. The most common method consists of outdoor sirens, prefer- ably with a distinctive signal indicating a natural disaster. Another method under development could transmit radio signals into the homes of all who wish them, to alert the occupants to the need to tune in radio or television for a disaster warning. 6.3.1 Positive Teletypewriter and VHF Radio Transmission Alert Teletypewriters at radio and television stations are generally located in the newsroom, which may be several doors removed from the studio. Espe- cially on weekends, holidays, or at night, only one employee, usually an announcer, may be on duty (as was the case with many stations during the Palm Sunday tornadoes) . Without some means of alert within that employee's sight or hearing, he may not be aware of an emergency message until some time after its transmission. A simple and inexpensive positive alerting device which utilizes teletypewriter transmission lines and rings a bell and/or flashes a light, is available. It should be installed in all mass media offices and appropriate public agencies. It could attract immediate at- tention of the broadcaster to an urgent natural disaster warning being transmitted by a warning agency. A similar type of device is available and should be installed for use in connection with the backup continuous VHF radio transmissions. 6.3.2 Public Siren in Natural Disaster Alerts Some communities in areas with high tornado potential have developed plans for sounding sirens to alert those who may not otherwise be aware of warning information. This system has been credited with saving many lives. The Weather Bureau can directly trigger the sirens in only two communities — Minneapolis and Shreveport. This feature was credited with saving a number of lives in Minneapolis suburbs earlier this year. The Of- 12 fice of Civil Defense is considering discontinuing the "Alert" signal and retaining only the "Take Cover" signal for attack warning purposes. If OCD finally so decides, the "Alert" signal could be made available to States and communities as a uniform natural disaster warning signal. In that case, it should be adopted for use in every com- munity subject to "short-fuse" types of disasters (tornadoes, flash floods, and seismic sea waves), and the desirability of permitting warning agen- cies to trigger the alert signal should be seriously considered by local authorities. 6.3.3 Radio and Television Receiver Alert An ideal system of alerting through radio and television would include some means of turning on receivers and transmitting a signal automatically. The National Industry Advisory Committee of the radio-television industry is developing such a posi- tive alerting AM/FM/TV signaling system for use in a national attack emergency. It envisions a device within the receiver which would react to a signal transmitted by a broadcasting station. The device would energize the loudspeaker of the receiver and receive the warning message. This positive alerting system would also meet the needs for natural disaster warnings and it should be utilized for that purpose as soon as it is available. 6.4 Communications Between Warning Of- fices It is essential that, during natural disaster oc- currences, warning offices be able to communicate with one another rapidly and reliably to pass on information and to coordinate public warnings. 6.4.1 Radar Report and Warning Coordina- tion Teletypewriter System The Weather Bureau's internal coordination teletypewriter network, known as the Radar Re- port and Warning Coordination (RAWARC) System, covers only the area east of the Rocky Mountains and even that area is only partially covered. Several additional installations are needed within, the tornado-prone area. However, the primary deficiency is complete lack of such a circuit in and west of the Rockies. Extension of the RAWARC System to all ESS A service out- lets in the conterminous United States will pro- vide essential nationwide teletypewriter communi- cations between warning offices. It will be neces- sary to speed up data transmission rates on the System to handle the additional load. 6.4.2. Emergency Radio-Backup Communica- tion System Between Warning Offices The communications and power lines needed to maintain the flow of information and warnings are themselves vulnerable to most of the natural disasters for which warnings are so essential. Dur- ing Hurricane Cleo in 1964, for example, both power and communications at the Hurricane Fore- cast Center at Miami were interrupted at a crit- ical time. Emergency power and communications installed since then functioned continuously throughout the 1965 onslaught of Hurricane Betsy in Florida, while the lack of them at New Or- leans a few hours later pointed up their indis- pensability when normal facilities were disrupted during the passage of the same hurricane. Backup communications should be made avail- able to every office with primary warning respon- sibility — to maintain communications with other warning offices. The Survey Group recommends that single sideband radio transceivers be installed at 35 additional key warning offices, especially in areas exposed to hurricanes and in the Pacific re- gion in connection with seismic sea waves. They should also be installed at key warning and radar observing points in other regions of the United States. 6.5 Emergency Power Radar and other detection equipment, as well as communications equipment, cease to function at critical times by failure of regular power supplies. The NADWAS Group recommends that the con- tinued functioning of all such vital equipment be protected by independent emergency power gener- ating facilities, to insure their continued perform- ance as part of the NADWARN System. In ad- dition to emergency power generators presently installed approximately 100 more are required, especially in coastal hurricane areas. 6.6 Communications in the Pacific Ocean Area Seismic sea wave warnings are prepared and distributed from the Honolulu Warning Center. Major communication delays are experienced in receipt of seismic and tide reports from the report- ing network extending over the Pacific Ocean and in transmitting subsequent bulletins and warnings to warning points in Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California, as well as to island and interna- tional interests throughout the Pacific. Tide and seismic reports must be accorded high-priority handling on all facilities used. 6.7 Dependability of Radio Communications Links Many links in the communication system depend on radio — especially links to those remote areas in Alaska and the Pacific not served by land lines. Because of variability of conditions in the high atmosphere — the ionosphere — the operators of these links must always be provided with up-to- date information and forecasts of ionosphere con- ditions, so that the proper frequencies will be se- lected to assure the dependability of the system. 13 7.0 COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS Effective detection of natural hazards and rapid communication of disaster warnings must be ac- companied by community preparedness programs so that effective protective action can be organized and taken. The Survey Group strongly recom- mends that the warning agencies in collaboration with local communities take necessary steps to in- sure adequate preparedness. 7.1 Uniform Warning Terminology The Survey Group found that widely varying terminology is used in warnings and forecasts. Some 10 different terms, such as "forecast," "warn- ing," "bulletin," "watch," "statement," "advisory," etc., are now used. It is essential that standard- ized terminology be adopted so that the same words always mean the same thing with regard to any natural disaster warning and hence evoke similar response from the public. The language of such warnings should be read- ily understandable and the warnings should be communicated to the public without change or modification. 7.2 Community Preparedness Plans Many States and communities in hurricane areas have developed well-organized preparedness plans. Several communities have also developed plans for other hazards, but many communities have no pre- paredness plans for coping with any natural dis- aster. The Federal Government should take the initiative to assist communities and States to de- velop and maintain complete and effective plans for all types of natural disasters. Natural disaster information pamphlets, bro- chures, and audio and visual material should be continually revised, updated, and given the widest possible distribution. The continued cooperative assistance of the mass media, so freely given in the past, and of schools and community groups is es- sential in carrying out this program. Postdisaster surveys should be undertaken to help in revising and updating programs and pro- cedures. 7.3 Response to Warnings In the case of tornadoes, flash floods, and tsu- namis ("short-fuse" types of disasters), there is little time for the public to refer to pamphlets and published rules for precautionary action. Many of those who heard the Palm Sunday (1965) tor- nado forecasts and warnings weren't certain what steps to take; many had no feeling of urgency. This same situation arises in many areas infre- quently visited by natural disasters. All natural disaster warnings therefore should include infor- mation on appropriate actions to be taken by the public to save lives and property. 7.4 The National Industry Advisory Commit- tee Study All Government agencies assigned natural dis- aster warning responsibilities are designating representatives to participate in the work of a special committee of the National Industry Ad- visory Committee (an organization of broadcast- ing representatives assisting the Federal Com- munications Commission). The objective of the special committee is to determine the best utiliza- tion of the individual State systems on a voluntary basis, under the National Emergency Broadcast System Plan, for natural disaster warning dissemi- nation. This coordination and cooperation should be maintained. 14 8.0 IMPLEMENTATION The Survey Group proposes that its recom- mendations be implemented over the next 3 years. They will require the recruitment and training of specialists, the manufacture and in- stallation of complicated electronic equipment, and a comprehensive program of education and planning in cooperation with Federal, State, and community officials and the mass media. The im- plementation can take place in three phases shown in general in figure 4. More detailed delineation of phasing of implementation for the Radar Net- work, the Natural Disaster Warning Teletype- writer Network, and Continuous VHF Radio Transmissions is given in figures 5, 6, and 7. 8.1 Phase I Implementation during Phase I should be di- rected primarily toward a broad, balanced warning service improvement program with special empha- sis on "Tornado Alley" and adjacent areas. Spe- cifically, the major effort should be concentrated in the States of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illi- nois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wisconsin. The Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network should be extended to include most of the States east of the Rocky Mountains. Continuous VHF radio transmission installa- tions should include 36 population centers in "Tor- nado Alley" and 17 additional installations at key marine warning points along the east and gulf coasts. Cooperative river and precipitation reporting networks should be upgraded in the Delaware River Basin and along the east slopes of the Rockies. Twelve weather surveillance radars should be installed, primarily in "Tornado Alley." Thirty repeaterscopes should be installed at nearby ESSA service offices within range of these 12 radars. Em- phasis should also be directed toward improving PHASING OF IMPLEMENTATION Figure 4 15 PHASED IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING AND PLANNED WEATHER SURVEILLANCE RADAR (WSR-57) NETWORK CURRENT AND PLANNED FY'66 PHASE 1 PHASE 2 FlGUBE 5 the seismic sea wave warning program in Alaska,, Hawaii, California, Oregon, and Washington, as well as the warnings of environmental conditions related to communications blackouts. 8.2 Phase II In Phase II, the areas of primary emphasis should include the peripheral remainder of the tornado area, remaining States in the hurricane area, the northeastern States, and the Pacific Northwest flooding area. The Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network should be extended to include the re- maining areas east of the Rockies as well as Wash- ington and northern California. Continuous VHF radio transmission installa- tions should be completed for all metropolitan cen- ters east of the Rockies having a population of 100,000 or more, and for all marine warning points along the east and gulf coasts. Four additional weather surveillance radars should be installed, one to complete the network in New York and Pennsylvania, and three in west- ern Oregon and Washington. Upgrading of cooperative river and precipita- tion reporting networks should continue in the river valleys of the central United States. Flash- flood reporting networks should be strengthened in the Far West and in the east coast States. 8.3 Phase III Implementation should be completed in Phase III with the inclusion of the southwestern conter- minous United States, the intermountain region, Alaska, and Hawaii. The Natural Disaster Warning Teletypewriter Network should include the remainder of the area from the Rocky Mountain States westward where it has not yet been installed. Continuous VHF radio transmission installa- tions should be completed for metropolitan centers from the Rocky Mountain States westward, in- cluding all marine warning points along the west coast and in Alaska. Four more radars should be installed to extend the network. Approximately 70 repeaterscopes should be installed at additional offices within range of operating radars. Additional weather surveillance radars must subsequently be added to complete the coverage of the United States. The locations and numbers of additional radars are dependent upon arrange- ments to be developed among the various Federal agencies operating weather radars and with the assistance of the Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorology. Upgrading of river and precipitation networks should be undertaken in the South, especially 16 along the gulf coast. Flash-flood reporting net- works should be expanded in the central United States. 8.4 Impact on Other Weather Services If the NAD WARN System is established, exist- ing plans for agriculture, marine, etc., weather services will also be materially advanced since they can make use of the same detection and com- munications facilities provided by the System. For consistency of implementation, mutual ad- justments in these and other plans should be made to insure full utilization of facilities and to insure maximum total benefits to the Nation. PHASED IMPLEMENTATION OF NATURAL DISASTER WARNING TELETYPEWRITER NETWORK CURRENT PLANNED FY'66 1ST PHASE 2ND PHASE 3RD PHASE FlGUBE 6 17 PHASED IMPLEMENTATION OF CONTINUOUS VHF RADIO TRANSMISSIONS xCURRENT o PHASE I DPHASE II + PHASE III Figure 7 18 9.0 RESEARCH Significant further advances in our ability to predict natural disasters more accurately and to predict the changing physical forces which cause them can only come from a sound program of basic and applied research. In the course of its study the NAD WAS Group was able to identify problems whose solution through research and de- velopment would materially advance the capa- bilities of our warning system. Among the tech- niques and capabilities which would markedly im- prove warnings are : Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms : 1. Methods for positive identification of tor- nadoes by radar or by other means, and identifica- tion of thunderstorms with tornado- forming po- tential. 2. Improvement of tornado forecasting on a time-scale of about 6 hours. Hurricanes : 1. Improvements in forecasting the formation and motion of hurricanes to periods beyond 12-24 hours. Flash Floods : 1. Development of a quantitative precipitation measuring device for use with radars. 2. Development of an alarm-type river gage. Seismic Sea Waves : 1. Development of a deep-ocean tide recorder. 2. Improved methods of forecasting the heights of the seismic sea wave. Storm Surges : 1. Improved methods of forecasting heights of storm surges and their effects on coastal facilities. Earthquakes : 1. A method for earthquake prediction. 2. Improved assessment of seismic risks, and of the effect of earthquakes on structures. 19 APPENDIX— BACKGROUND INFORMATION LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT ADP — Automatic Data Processing AM — Amplitude Modulation AP — Associated Press APT — Automatic Picture Transmission ARINC — Aeronautical Radio, Incorporated ASR — Automatic Send/Receive AUTO VON— Automatic Voice Network CDC — Control Data Corporation CE — Corps of Engineers, U.S. Army CERC — Coastal Engineering Research Center, Corps of Engineers, U.S. Army C&GS — Coast and Geodetic Survey CHURN — Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Net- work OONELRAD— Control of Electromagnetic Radiation CONUS— Continental United States CPS— Cycles Per Second CRPL — Central Radio Propagation Laboratory CW — Continuous Wave DCA — Defense Communications Agency DOD — Department of Defense EANS — Emergency Action Notification Signal EBS — Emergency Broadcast System ESSA — Environmental Science Services Adminis- tration. FAA — Federal Aviation Agency FAA-AFTN— FAA Aeronautical Fixed Telecom- munications Network FAA-ATS— FAA Air Traffic Services FCC — Federal Communications Commission FM — Frequency Modulation FY— Fiscal Year HF — High Frequency IBM — International Business Machine (Corpora- tion) IRAC — Interdepartment Radio Advisory Com- mittee kc — Kilocycles kw — Kilowatts L/MF — Low/Medium Frequency M — Meters mc — Megacycles MF — Medium Frequency MPH— Miles Per Hour MSL— Mean Sea Level NACOM — National Communications System NACOM 1 — National Communications System No. 1 NACOM 2 — National Communications System No. 2 NAD WAS — Natural Disaster Warning Survey NASA — National Aeronautics and Space Admin- istration NAWAS — National Warning System NCS — National Communications System NEAR — National Emergency Alarm Repeater NHC — National Hurricane Center NHRL — National Hurricane Research Laboratory NIAC — National Industry Advisory Committee (of broadcasters, assisting FCC) NORAD — North American Defense NSSL — National Severe Storms Laboratory PA — Public Address PL — Public Law OCD— Office of Civil Defense OEP — Office of Emergency Planning RADAR — Radio Detecting and Ranging RAWARC — Radar Report and Warning Coordi- nation (System) RFC — River Forecast Center RFF— Research Flight Facility RO — Receive-Only SCAN — Switched Circuit Automatic Network SELS — Severe Local Storms (Center) SSB — Single Side Band SSWWS — Seismic Sea Wave Warning System TELEX — Timed Teletypewriter Exchange, by Western Union and International Telecom- munications Union TIROS — Television Infrared Observation Satel- lite TMC — Tropical Meteorological Center TOSS— TIROS Operational Satellite System TWX— Timed Wire Service (by Bell System) TV — Television UHF — Ultra- High Frequency UPI — United Press International USAF— United States Air Force USC— United States Code USCG — United States Coast Guard USGS — United States Geological Survey USN— United States Navy VHF — Very High Frequency WARN — Weather Amateur Radio Network WB — Weather Bureau WMC — World Meteorological Center WPM— Words Per Minute 789-862 0-h©5 3 21 SECTION I. NATURAL HAZARDS INTRODUCTION A natural disaster is an event which is caused by the uncontrolled forces of nature and is suf- ficiently severe to result in death and destruction of property. Such events include floods, hurri- canes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, storm surges, and other natural phenomena. Since the beginning of the Federal disaster pro- gram, the President has declared an average of 15 natural disasters a year. In 1964, 25 major disasters were declared; 24 have been so desig- nated through September 30, 1965. Natural hazards which may lead to a disaster are listed in table 1/1. The table also identifies the agencies responsible for warnings, and con- tains information on geographical areas affected and the periods of most frequent occurrence of the hazards. The incidence of several types of nat- ural disasters is shown in figure 1/1. Manmade hazards such as air or stream pollution are not included in table 1/1, although the warning sys- tem recommended in this report can be used for warnings of these hazards as well. Matters relat- ing to assistance to the public during a disaster and to postdisaster relief and rehabilitation were considered to be outside the province of the NADWAS Group. NCIDENCE OF SOME TYPES OF NATURAL DISASTERS EARTHQUAKES o MINOR • MODERATE • MAJOR WINTER STOPM DISASTERS f HURRICANE DISASTERS TSUNAMI DISASTERS W< FREQUENT TORNADO DISASTERS OCCASIONAL TORNADO DISASTERS □ INFREQUENT TORNADO DISASTERS Figure I/l 23 Category Meteorological Hydrological Table 1/1. — Natural hazards Affected portion of United Hazard Warning agency States and/or waters A. Those for which warnings are currently being issued to the general public Period of most frequent occurrence Other Geophysical Astrophysical Meterological Hydrological Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Hurricanes and other tropical wind storms. Typhoons WB All States. Nontropical wind storms. Severe winter weather. Fire danger WB Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast States and Eastern Pacific. DOD Western North Po oifif* WB All States) and high sea areas assigned by WMO. WB All States except Hawaii. WB Forested areas and ranges, all States. Duststorms WB. Flash floods. River floods . WB. WB. Tsunamis C&GS. Seiches Storm surges. Avalanches -. WB. All States west of Mississippi River except Hawaii and Alaska. All States (Service planned in Alaska and Hawaii). Main streams and principal tributaries. (Service planned in Alaska, none in Hawaii.) Coastal parts of south- ern Alaska, Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Pacific territories and pos- sessions. Great Lakes WB Coastal parts of North Atlantic and North Pacific. Forest Service, Park Mountain States. Service, local authorities. Geomagnetic and iono- spheric disturbances and polar cap ab- sorption affecting radio propagation. CRPL Communications in all areas. Earlv spring to earlv fall. June-November. All months. Do. Winter months. Spring to fall; except all months in southern California, and fall to spring in Florida. All months. Do. Do. Do. All months, except when frozen. All months. Snow season. All months. (Most frequent in March- April and September- October.) B. Those presently being warned against for special user groups only WB All States All months. Clear-air turbulence. (Warnings are passed to aircraft by FAA.) Icebergs and sheet ice. (Warnings passed by U.S. Coast Guard and Navy.) USCG and Navy. North Atlantic, Alas- kan Waters. March-June. 24 C. Those not presently being warned against, but ol general public concern Category Meteorological Hydrological Other Geophysical Affected ■portion of United States Hazard Responsible agency and I or waters' Period of most frequent occurrence Drought WB All States. .. All months. Do. Sea, swell, surface breakers. WB Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf, Caribbean. Earthquakes C&GS All States All months. Volcanic eruptions USGS Hawaii, Alaska, California. Landslides None , Mountain States Snow season, rainy season. D. Those not presently being warned against and which are of concern to special user groups only Astrophysical Cosmic radiation C RPL High-altitude flights _ _ All months . dangerous to persons. STATISTICS OF NATURAL HAZARDS 1. Meteorological Hazards a. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, includ- ing wind, hail, and lightning. (See see. VII, C for definitions.) The Weather Bureau began systematic record- ing of tornadoes in 1916. Table 1/2 shows the number of tornado occurrences in each year during the period 1916-64. The apparent higher fre- quenc} 7 , on the the average, during the past 12 years reflects better reporting rather than an actual long-term increase in tornado occurrence. The reporting has improved because our growing population has a greater awareness of tornadoes, reporting and warning networks have been estab- lished, and methods have been improved. The average annual number of tornadoes in the United States (1916-64) is 263. The average for the past 12 years (1953-64) is 605. So far this year (to September 26, 1965), 867 have been reported. Figure 1/2 shows the distribution or tornadoes Continental Divide and in mountainous areas, although every State has recorded at least one since 1916. Tornado occurrences follow a well-defined sea- sonal pattern. They are most frequent in the Gulf Coast States, except Florida, in late winter and early spring. They spread over a widening area including Arkansas, northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and the Great Lakes States during April and early May, the middle portion of the Great Plains by later May and June, and the Dakotas and Minnesota by July. By August they begin to decrease in northern areas, and at the same time begin to increase on the coast of Florida and in other coastal areas in connection with hurricanes. Based on data from the period 1916-64, 66 per- cent of the tornadoes occurred from March through June, 22 percent from July through Octo- ber, and only 12 percent during other months. Figure 1/3 shows tornado frequency in the United States by months. TORNADO FREQUENCY BY STATES 1953-1964 144 721 303 96 162 94 121 236 75 118 2 74 252 108 142130 22 40 \ 34 17 57 4 13 ^40 308 161 59 42 41 \ — 19 16 4* H 799 319 "3 162 215 205 )77 96 109 13 , UPPER NUMBER ■ TOTAL TORNADOES LOWER NUMBER ■ TOTAL DATS ON WHICH TORNADOES OCCURRED Figure 1/2 by States during the period 1953-64. The Central States and the southern Great Plains States, fre- quently referred to as "Tornado Alley," have the most tornadoes. Tornadoes are rare west of the TORNADO FREQUENCY BY MONTHS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1916-1964 AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS AVERAGE MONTHLY TORNADOES TORNADOES WERE REPORTED 4 — lllhll J PMAMJJA SOND J FMAMJJA SOND Figure 1/3 25 Table 1/2. — The annual number of tornadoes and tornado deaths reported in the United States, 1916-64 Number of Number of Year Torna- does i Deaths Year Torna- does i Deaths 1916 90 121 81 64 87 105 108 102 130 119 111 163 203 197 192 94 151 258 147 180 151 147 213 152 124 118 150 509 135 206 493 202 135 109 376 794 144 540 92 274 179 36 394 362 47 70 552 29 183 87 65 53 1942 167 152 169 121 106 165 183 249 199 272 236 437 549 593 532 864 565 583 618 683 658 461 713 384 1917 1943 58 1918 1944 275 1919 1945 210 1920 1946 78 1921 1947 313 1922 1948 140 1923 1949 212 1924 1950 70 1925 1951 34 1926 1952 230 1927 1953 516 1928 1954 35 1929 1955 125 1930 1956 83 1957 .-. 191 1932 1958 66 1933 1959 58 1934 1960 47 1935 1961 51 1936 1962 28 1937 1963 31 1938 1964 73 Average. _- 1940 1941 263 194 i Funnel clouds aloft, i.e., not touching the ground, and waterspouts (tor- nado over water) are not included . Tornadoes have killed 9,524 people in the United States during the period 1916-64. The tristate tornado outbreak which swept from Missouri across Illinois and into Indiana on March 18, 1925 caused 689 deaths. The Palm Sunday tornado outbreak on April 11, 1965 re- sulted in 272 deaths in 6 Midwestern States. Table 1/2 also contains a listing of yearly tornado deaths. Estimated property losses during the past 20 years average on the order of $40 million per year. In some years, however, property losses have run into hundreds of millions of dollars. The areal distribution of days on which one or more thunderstorms occur (thunderstorm days) is shown in figure 1/4. There are local variations, however, that figure 1/4 does not show because of the local nature of thunderstorms and the sparsity of observations from some areas. July and Figure 1/4 August are the months with the greatest number of thunderstorms over most sections of the United States; December and January have the lowest number. During an average year, many deaths and much property damage are caused by lightning asso- ciated with thunderstorms. An average of 160 people were killed by lightning each year during the 11-year period 1953-63. Property damage, generally resulting from fires started by light- ning, is estimated in excess of $100 million a year. Death from lightning, in any particular instance, is usually limited to one or two persons; so the news is not highlighted as in the case of large numbers of deaths sometimes associated with a tornado or hurricane. It should be noted also that those areas having the most thunderstorms do not necessarily have the largest number of lightning deaths because some areas consistently experience less severe thunderstorms than other areas. b. Hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cy- clones of lesser intensity. (See sec. VII. C for definition.) Figure 1/5 shows the main regions of the world where hurricanes and typhoons occur and the aver- age, or generalized, tracks they follow. Most hur- PRINCIPAL HURRICANE TRACKS DURING THE WARMEST SEASON HJ ' cc * ¥ Figure 1/5 26 rioanes and typhoons form in the belt between 8° and 15° from the Equator. Within these zones, the preferred regions of formation are ocean areas where the surface water temperature is high. All hurricanes and typhoons begin at sea as tropical disturbances and tend to dissipate over land. The general classification for all such occurrences is "tropical cyclone." During the early days of meteorology, many tropical cyclones must have occurred in the oceans without being reported. In several regions the "frequency" has risen with increasing density of reports in recent years. The only reliable statistics are in the Atlantic, where ship traffic has been heavy and island reports numerous for many years. A rough comparison is shown in table 1/3. Figure 1/6 shows the tracks of the devastating North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf hurricanes since 1955. Table 1/3. — Frequencies of tropical cyclones per 10 YEARS l [Hurricanes and storms of lesser intensity are included] North Atlantic Ocean 73 North Pacific — off west coast of Mexico 57 North Pacific Ocean, west of 170° E 211 North Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal 60 North Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea 15 South Indian Ocean, west of 90° E 61 South Indian Ocean, northwestern Australia 9 1 After Dunn. Table 1/4 provides a complete listing of deaths and damage estimates from North Atlantic tropi- cal cyclones since 1915. The average annual death toll is 110 for the United States. Table 1/4. — Loss of life and damage estimates from North Atlantic tropical cyclones — Continued [1915-64] Table 1/4, 1915. 1916. 1917. 1918. 1919. 1920. 1921. 1922. 1923. 1924. 1925. 1926. 1927. 1928. 1929. 1930. 1931. 1932. 1933. 1934. 1935. 1936. 1937. -Loss of life and damage estimates from North Atlantic tropical cyclones [1915-64] Damage in all areas including United States i (millions of dollars) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Damage in Loss of life Loss of life United in all areas in United States < including States (millions United of dollars) States 550 63.0 n.a. 107 33.3 n.a. 5 0.2 n.a. 34 5.0 n.a. 287 22.0 n.a. 2 3.0 n.a. 5 3.0 n.a. n.a. Minor n.a. 2 Minor n.a. 6 Minor n.a. 269 106.5 n.a. n.a. 1,836 25.0 n.a. 3 0.7 n.a. Minor n.a. n.a. n.a. 63 46.7 n.a. 17 4.8 n.a. 414 11.5 n.a. 9 2.3 n.a. Minor n.a. 600 300.2 n.a. 3 Minor n.a. Year Loss of life in United States Damage in United States ' (millions of dollars) Loss of life in all areas including United States Damage in all areas including United States ' (millions of dollars) 1940 51 10 8 16 64 7 53 3 4 19 3 2 193 218 19 395 2 23 65 46 3 10 49 4.7 7.7 27.1 16.8 165.0 80.1 5.2 135.8 18.4 58.8 35.9 2.0 2.8 6.2 755.5 984.5 26.5 152.1 11.2 23.1 370.4 331.0 1.1 13.0 515.2 n.a. n.a. 17 19 1,076 29 5 76 24 4 27 244 16 3 1,518 1,516 74 475 42 56 180 345 4 7,203 266 1941..- 1942... n.a. 31 1 1943 16.8 1944 202 1945 80.1 1946 5.2 1947 135.8 1948 24.4 1949 59.8 1950 36.9 1951 25.0 1952 3.8 1953 6.1 1954 1,135.0 1955 1, 251. 5 1956 64.2 1957 +152. +11.7 +23.1 1958 1959 1960 379.6 1961 1962 691.3 +1.1 1963 542.9 1964 601.5 Total 5,475 110 4,380.3 87.6 13, 219 575 +5,480.9 +238.3 i Note. — These are estimates only and have not been adjusted for changing dollar values. The North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico areas produce the hurricanes which may ultimately affect the gulf and east coasts of the United States. The total number of tropical storm and hurricane occurrences by months for the North Atlantic for the period 1886-1964 is given in table 1/5. Table 1/5. — Hurricane and tropical storm occurrences by months for the North Atlantic, 1886-1964 J F M A M J J A S O N D Total Tropical storms Hurricanes.. 1 1 8 2 24 17 20 26 38 104 75 141 77 69 17 12 2 2 262 374 Total. . 1 1 10 41 46 142 216 146 29 4 636 See footnote at end of table. The months of most frequent hurricane occur- rence in the North Atlantic and adjacent waters are August, September, and October. A majority of early season (May and June) storms originate in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. In July and August, the areas of most frequent origin shift eastward and by September are located over the large area from the Bahamas southeastward to the Lesser Antilles, thence eastward to south of the Cape Verde Islands, near the West Coast of Africa. After mid-September the principal areas of origin shift back to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. 27 DEVASTATING NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE TRACKS 1955 - 1964 t DATES OF HURRICANE AREAS MOST AFFECTED 1. 1955, August 3-14 North Carolina CONNIE 2. 1955, August 7-21 North Carolina to DIANE New England 3. 1955, September 10- IONE -23 North Carolina 4. 1956, September 21 -30 Louisiana to FLOSSY northern Florida 5. 1957, June 25-28 AUDREY Texas to Alabama 6. 1958, September 21 October 7 HELENE North Carolina DATES OF HURRICANE AREAS MOST AFFECTED 7. 1959, September 20- South Carolina October 2 to Virginia GRACIE 8. 1960, August 29- Florida to September 1 3 New England DONNA 9. 1961, September 3-15 CARLA Texas 10. 1964, August 20- Southern Florida, September 5 eastern Virginia CLEO 11. 1964, August 28- Northeastern September 16 Florida, southern DORA Georgia 12. 1964, September 28- October 5 HILDA Louisiana Figure 1/6 28 c. Winter storms, including northeasters, bliz- zards, cold loaves, heavy snoiv, storm surges, ice storms, strong ivinds, and sea conditions. (See sec. VII, C for definitions). There is a strong tendency for storms to develop in higher middle latitudes in winter. In the Pacific, most of the storms form on the polar fronts, travel northeastward and accumulate in the Gulf of Alaska. Some, particularly those that form on the mid-Pacific polar front, take a more southerly track, reaching the coast as far south as southern California. Few Pacific storms are able to cross the Rocky Mountains, but many redevelop east of the moun- tain ranges. There is a high frequency of re- development east of the Sierra Nevada, but these storms are generally weak. Another favored region lies to the east of the Colorado Rockies. Storms forming in this area are often called "Colorado cyclones." Many develop to great in- tensity and become dominant in the central and eastern parts of the country. Their favored di- rection of movement is northeastward toward the Great Lakes. The other principal region of re- development activity is east of the Canadian Rockies; many of these storms, so-called "Alberta cyclones,'' become strong and move eastward, bringing c old air southward over the Great Plains. A fourth region of high storm frequency is the Great Lakes area. This is a highly complex region because: (a) many winter storms develop where the water is much warmer than the land; (b) the tracks of Alberta and Colorado storms converge here; and (c) a few storms form over the Gulf of Mexico and move northward to and intensify in the Great Lakes area. On the east coast, storms frequently form on the Atlantic polar front, most frequently along the coast of Virginia and in the general area to the east of the southern Appalachians. These are the familiar "Cape Hatteras storms" or "east coast storms 1 ' (northeasters), which develop to great intensity and move to the vicinity of Iceland where they stagnate and weaken. Some of the most memorable storms on record are listed on table 1/6. Table 1/6. — Some notable winter storms Type Area affected Remarks Mar. 11-14, 1888. Blizzard-heavy snow. Eastern seaboard. Nov. 26-29, 1921... Jan. 7-12, 1937 Ice storm .do. New England. Texas, Kansas, Arkan- sas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois. Jan. 23-24, 1940. Heavy storm. Southeastern States, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey. Most remarkable blizzard in East. Disastrous from Chesapeake Bay area to Maine. Cities paralyzed included Washington, D.C., Phila- delphia, Boston, and New York City. Wind averaged 20 to 25 m.p.h., throughout area for 4 days, at times reached 50 to over 70 m.p.h. Snowfall averaged 40 inches or more over southeastern New York and southern New England. In New York City alone, 200 deaths, uncounted injuries, and damage near $20 million. Total deaths from blizzard over 400. Maritime losses over %}i million; loss by railroads and business several million dollars. Most severe ice storm in memory. Losses to telephone, telegraph, and electric companies over $5 million. Over 100,000 trees ruined, with damage probably $5 to 10 million. Several persons injured by falling branches and ice. Called worst ice storm in history in northwestern Arkansas and heaviest ice in many years in Missouri. Telephone and telegraph wires covered with ice to thickness as much as 2 inches. Communication and power lines, timber, and shrubbery severely damaged. Damage from $3 to $4 million in Texas. Cost of restoring telephone and telegraph equipment about $1}£ million in Missouri; and communication and power line damage $100,000 in Arkansas. Snowstorm almost to coast in Mississippi, heavy in northern Alabama, one of greatest in Georgia, heaviest in 4 years in South Carolina and in 11 years in Tennessee. New records for 24 hours and single storm were 15.5 inches at Louisville, Miss., and 14 inches at Fayette and Valley Head, Ala. At Farmville and New Canton, Va., 24 inches fell for a record 24- hour amount in that State. Totals at Cheltenham, Md., were 24 inches; Washington, D.C., 9.5 inches; and in New Jersey, Cape May 13 inches, Belleplain 10 inches, Atlantic City 9 inches, and Bridgeton 8 inches. In South Carolina, 5 deaths; in Virginia, 12; and in Tennessee, several. Damage in Virginia esti- mated at $y 2 million. 29 Table 1/6. — Some notable winter storms — Continued Date Nov. 11-12, 1940. Jan. 1-6, 1949_ Nov. 23-28, 1950. Jan. 28-Feb. 4, 1951. Feb. 3-5, 1961. Type Blizzard. Blizzard-heavy snow-cold wave. Heavy snow-cold wave. Ice storm. Heavy snow. Area affected South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan. Idaho, Wyoming, Mon- tana, Colorado, North and South Dakota, Nevada, Utah, Nebraska. Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Caro- lina, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsyl- vania, and Ohio. Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia, Vir- ginia, and New Eng- land. North Carolina, Vir- ginia, District of Columbia, Pennsylva- nia, New Jersey, New York, and New Eng- land. Remarks Called Armistice Day blizzard, occurred in most of 6 States. One of most destructive blizzards of record in western and northern Iowa and very disastrous and widespread in Michigan; subzero temperatures, high winds, severe drifting of snow, and visibility reduced to at times. 73 deaths in Michigan, 69 of which were in ships lost on Lake Michigan; 49 in Minnesota; 13 in Wisconsin; 7 in Iowa; and 2 in South Dakota. Damage exceeded $6 million, including about $1 million loss of livestock and $1^2 million to orchards, mostly in Iowa. Combination of wind, snow, and cold created most adverse weather in history of West. Snowfall to 12 inches in Idaho, 15 inches in Colorado, 20 to over 40 inches in Nebraska, and 7 to 25 inches in South Dakota. Roads blocked and towns isolated by drifts 20 to 30 feet in Wyoming. At Chadron, Nebr., 41 inches of snow fell, record for a single storm in State. Extreme windspeeds of 73 m.p.h., at Rapid City, S. Dak., 66 m.p.h., at Cheyenne, Wyo., and 65 m.p.h., at North Platte, Nebr. Visibility less than 5 feet at Rapid City most of 2 days. Emergency medical supplies and food carried by plane to isolated areas and hay to starving livestock. Relief operations and opening and reopening of roads required ex- penditure of millions of dollars. Livestock losses very heavy, estimated over $9 million in Wyoming alone. At least 39 deaths reported. Unprecedented November snowfall and very low temperatures in many areas. New record 24- hour amounts and totals for a single snow in Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Greatest 24-hour fall of record, in Ohio, 20.7 inches in Youngstown; in West Virginia, 28 inches at Glenville. Record snow totals: in Ohio, 36.3 inches at Steubenville; in West Vir- ginia, 57.1 inches at Pickens; and in Pennsyl- vania, 33.5 inches at Erie. Considerable dam- age from roofs collapsing from weight of snow. Total damage in Pennsylvania, $3 million; in West Virginia, $1.5 million. 28 deaths in Pennsylvania; 15 each in Kentucky and West Virginia, 8 in Ohio, 7 in South Carolina, and 1 each in Alabama and Virginia. One of the most destructive ice storms in many years, particulary in Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Ohio, and Indiana. Ice on exposed objects y-i to 4 inches thick. Buildings col- lapsed, and trees, shrubbery, wires, and poles damaged. Extensive damage in Texas, about $50 million in Missisippi, $15 million in Louisiana, $1,750,000 in Tennessee, and heavy damage in Ohio. In Mississippi 16 deaths; Louisiana 4, Alabama 2, Pennsylvania 6, West Virginia 1, and New England 7. Hundreds of persons injured on ice-coated walks, streets, and highways. Snowstorm, across North Carolina and Virginia then northeastward along coast, of blizzard intensity with severe cold and gale-force winds. Snowfall 2 to 13 inches in Virginia, 8 inches in the District of Columbia, 10 to 24 inches in Pennsylvania, 12 to 27 inches in New Jersey, 10 to 36 inches in New York, and 8 to 25 inches in New England. Transportation facil- ities paralyzed, many roofs collapsed. State of emergency declared in some communities. 73 deaths reported: 22 in New York, 19 in Massachusetts, 15 in Pennsylvania, 10 in Connecticut, 4 in Virginia, 2 in New Hamp- shire, and 1 in Rhode Island. Damage in millions of dollars. 30 Table 1/6. — Some notable winter storms — Continued Type Area affected Remarks Mar. 5-9, 1962. Storm surge- strong winds- heavy snow. Entire east coast. Oct. 11-13, 1962. Dec. 29-31, 1962. Strong winds- heavy rain. Blizzard. Pacific Northwest. Northeast. Jan. 12-24, 1963. Jan. 10-14, 1964. Cold wave-bliz- zard. Blizzard-heavy snow. Nation, east of Rocky Mountains. Kansas, Nebraska, most of Eastern States. Heavy snow in the Middle Atlantic States and Virginia and Maryland; more than 2 feet in some places. High tides and waves in New York. Damaging high water occurred on five successive high tides over a 48-hour period. Highest 7.1 feet above MSL with waves 20 to 30 feet reported. Hampton Roads, Va., tide reached 8.9 feet above MSL (5.6 feet above normal). Entire east coast from New England to Florida affected by high tides. Surface winds 60-70 m.p.h. with gusts occasionally to 80. Took 30 lives and in- flicted property damage of several hundred million dollars. Strong winds and heavy rain in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Winds in excess of 100 m.p.h. in some places. Took estimated 50 lives. Damage estimated at about $250 million. Gale-force northwest winds and temperatures on tail of heavy snowstorm produced one of the Worst blizzards of this century throughout New England. New Maine snowfall record set with 40 inches in 24 hours at Orono and 46 inches in single storm at Ripogenus Dam. Many drifts to over 15 feet. Traffic halted or slowed, schools closed, thousands of water pipes and automobile radiators frozen from eastern Canada to Virginia. Over a dozen deaths from overexertion and exposure. Cold wave and blizzard east of Rocky Moun- tains to east coast. Took 14 lives. Coldest wave in 20 years in East. Nashville, —15°; Lexington, Ky., -21°, Cleveland, -19°; —34° at Bonneville, Ky., lowest ever recorded. 170 deaths attributed to storm. 30 inches of snow at Ashland, N.Y. Generally 20 inches in Pennsylvania, New England through New York. Washington 10 inches; New York 8-12 inches. In Illinois, 500 motor- ists stranded at Neoga. All schools closed. 300 stranded on Ohio turnpike. High tide 5 feet at Delaware breakwater. High waters generally ran 3-4 feet above normal. d. Drought (including duststorms) and fire- weather. Drought conditions gradually develop over an extended period of below-normal rainfall. Neither forecasts nor warnings of drought can be issued with present knowledge and technology. Drought severity, assessed as the condition develops, is de- termined on the basis of rainfall and temperature and their departures from values which would have been climatically appropriate at the time and place being analyzed. These indices and their cate- gories are shown in the table in figure 1/7. Figure 1/8 shows the percentage of months (1931-60) with severe or extreme drought in the eastern two-thirds of the United States. The most prominent feature is the area centered in Kansas and Nebraska, but covering most of the Great Plains. This area is subject to quasi-periodic droughts of rather extended proportions. Throughout most of the Great Plains region, serious drought existed from 15 to 25 percent of the time during the 1931-60 period. Farther to the east and south, areas where serious drought occurs are rather few. An important factor in drought is proximity to sources of moisture for precipitation. Most drought periods are fairly brief, and few last long enough to produce a prolonged abnormality such as occurs in the Plains area. A significant excep- tion, however, is the current drought in the North- eastern United States. The dry weather in the Hudson Valley began in September 1961. Since then, more than two-thirds of the months have been so dry that the severity of the drought has increased. It has been in the extreme category continuously from early July 1964. Figure 1/7 shows the severity of this drought as of August 22, 1965. Duststorms are sometimes associated with drought. They are characterized by strong winds and dust-filled air over an extensive area. Dust- storms are preceded by drought over an area of normally usable land, thus providing the very fine 31 £3 MODERATE EH SEVERE O EXTREME Figure 1/7 particles of dust which distinguish them from the more common sandstorms of desert, regions. Fire weather is also associated with drought con- ditions. This is a state of the weather which fa- vors the kindling and spreading of forest fires. Fire-inducing conditions include low humidity and lack of precipitation during preceding days and high winds on the day in question. e. Clear-air turbulence. (See sec. VII, C for definition.) Recent increases in the use of jet aircraft have focused attention on the prevalence of clear-air turbulence. During November 1963, the Weather Bureau received 1,130 reports of clear-air turbu- lence of more than light intensity. Adverse effects range from minor discomfort of passengers to actual aircraft failure. An example of the latter is a B-52 mishap when the rudder and vertical fin were sheared off in an encounter with turbulence in clear air over the Colorado Rockies. 2. Hydrological Hazards a. Floods, including flash foods. (See sec. VII, C for definition.) An estimated 50 million acres of the United States are subject to flooding. Although only 2.5 percent of the Nation's total area, most of this land is densely settled and is in the upper brackets with respect to values. Approximately 10 million people in this country live in these flood plains, and 36 million people in urban areas are affected directly or indirectly by flood events. Floods can occur in almost any part of the con- terminous United States (fig. 1/9) . Frequency of occurrence varies greatly by geographic area. Ma- jor floods occur in the Ohio River Valley about every 2 years, but the 1965 flood on the South Platte River in the Denver area, for example, was the first since 1933. Table 1/7 gives an indication of the frequency of major floods in some of the more important river basins in the United States. 32 PERCENT OF MONTHS 1931-1960 WITH SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT Figure 1/8 NUMBER OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS IN WHICH AMERICAN RED CROSS ASSISTANCE WAS GIVEN 1955-1964 I I 24 14 12 3 10 10 6 ft 3 6 1 2 16 21 12 13 12 -3* 1 2 UPPER NUMBER-FL000S LOWER NUMBER = FLASH FLOODS FIGURE 1/9 Table 1/7. — Estimated frequency of floods Recurrence t-,. , intervals River system: (years) Ohio River Basin 2 Missouri River Basin 4 Upper Mississippi River Basin 4 Columbia River Basin 2 In many areas the flood season is very definite. In northern California, floods traditionally occur during the winter; during the summer there is practically no chance of even a minor flood. In the southeastern United States, however, major floods have occurred in every month of the year. Flash floods are generally caused by locally severe thunderstorms or by intense rainfall associ- ated with hurricanes. This type of flood is ex- perienced most frequently during the spring and summer months but has occurred in all seasons in almost every part of the conterminous United States (fig. 1/9). Areas most susceptible to this type of flood are the headwaters of streams, in- cluding local creeks and streams flowing through commmunities. Figure 1/10 indicates flood losses in the United States by major river systems. The average an- nual flood losses from 1955-64 approximated $240 million, while the average annual loss of life was 70. Property losses by months and years are indicated in table 1/8. b. Tsunamis. (See sec. VII, C for definition.) From 1946, 48 tsunamis have been reported in the Pacific Ocean. Seven of these caused dam- age in the United States and/or its Pacific pos- sessions, and 4 caused 373 deaths in the United States and its possessions. Other countries and islands in the Pacific have also suffered severe damage. The principal damaging tsunamis in the Pacific from 1946 through September 1965 are listed in table I /9. c. Seiches. (See sec. VII, C for definition.) A seiche is caused when a line of thunderstorms moves over a lake, but the thunderstorms must be of sufficient intensity and move with a critical di- rection and speed. In the case of the southern basin of Lake Michigan, the critical direction and speed have been found to be toward the southeast at 65 m.p.h. The seiche occurs on the eastern shore with the line of thunderstorms, but then is reflected back to reach the western shore. It takes several hours for the wave to be reflected back. Another type of rise in water levels along a shore occurs when wind blows at moderate speeds from one direction over the entire length of a lake. This condition, persisting for many hours, causes the water to "pile up" at one end of the lake as the result of the frictional force of the wind on the water surface. Similar storm surges sometimes occur in coastal areas. The significance and frequency of seiche occur- rences and the frequency of reported occurrences, especially via press, radio, and television^ depend greatly on land use and population. Since 1954, 10 seiches have been reported on Lake Michigan. The most disastrous of these occurred on June 26, 1954, when seven people were drowned while fish- ing from a breakwater at the entrance to Montrose Harbor (Chicago). DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATED FLOOD LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES BY MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS, 1925-1963 608 I 32 , 1823 \ \ ,,„ y \ \ 449 \ 176 s^\ \ ) ( \ m \ NUMBERS INDICATE LOSSES • N MILLIONS OP OCULARS Figure 1/10 33 Table 1/8. — Loss of life and property in the United States from floods [Property losses in millions of dollars by months and years, 1955-64] Year January February March April May June Property Life Property Life Property Life Property Life Property Life Property Life 1955 15 8 1 2 3 30 12 2 1 14 25 16 4 3 2 11 2 1 9 17 3 11 2 30 14 29 100 97 17 2 6 4 3 3 31 11 3 1 106 21 1 28 5 9 15 4 18 3 1 9 25 44 25 7 2 68 2 2 3 2 10 13 2 8 3 6 4 2 102 67 1 10 4 2 15 78 1 1956 9 61 4 1957 32 1958 _ 1959 96 1 1960 13 1961 4 1962 1 2 1 2 1963 _. 3 1964 24 Total Average 171 17 24 2 105 10 32 3 303 30 77 8 189 19 26 3 187 19 44 4 285 29 83 8 Year July August September October November December Total 1 Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life Prop- erty Life 1955 1 6 5 43 1 9 6 3 4 15 29 1 25 1 4 712 12 1 18 5 1 4 1 37 193 4 2 1 6 1 4 15 2 5 26 3 5 2 7 3 1 52 2 3 2 20 6 1 14 18 1 3 6 1 9 2 5 2 1 1 3 2 191 1 11 1 377 63 1 23 996 64 361 216 142 93 155 77 176 591 302 1956. _ 42 1957 82 1958 47 1959 25 I960— 32 1961. _ 52 1962 19 1963 39 1964 60 Total Average _ _ 78 8 75 8 791 79 207 21 60 6 13 1 100 10 28 3 21 2 5 581 58 87 9 2, 871 287 700 70 Not adjusted to present price index. Table 1/9. — Principal Damaging Tsunamis in the Pacific, 19^6-65 (to date) Epicenter Killed Comments Apr. 1, 1946. __ Dec. 20, 1946. . Oct. 8, 1950 Mar. 4, 1952... Nov. 4, 1952... Sept. 14, 1953. Nov. 25, 1953. Dec. 12, 1953. Apr. 19, 1955. Mar. 9, 1957__ July 28, 1957- . July 10, 1958.. May 22, 1960. July 23, 1961- Oct. 13, 1963. Oct. 20, 1963.- Mar. 28, 1964. June 16, 1964. Jan. 24, 1965- Feb. 4, 1965.. Mar. 30, 1965_ July 2, 1965-- 34 53K° N., 163° W_ 33° N., 135.6° E_. 4° S., 128° E 42^° N., 143^° E. 52.7° N., 159.9° E 18y 2 ° S., 178^° E_. 34° N., 141° E 3H° S., 81° W 30° S., 72° W 51.3° N., 175.8° W. 137 1,997 (?) (?) Very many also Aleutian 16y 2 ° N., 99° W— _ 58.6° N., 137.1° W. 39^° S., 74^° W... 68 2 1,288 18.5° N., 168.3° E 44.8° N., 149.5° E 44.7° N., 150.7° E 61.05° N., 147.5° W---. 38.5° N., 139° E... 2.4° S., 126.0° E--_ 51.3° N., 178.6° E_. 50.6° N., 177.9° E_, 53.1° N., 167.7° W. (?) (?) 132 36 71 $25 million damage in Hawaii. Damage Islands, U.S. west coast, and Chile. Extensive damage in Honshu, Japan. 200-meter wave reported from Indonesia. 10-foot wave in Hokkaido, Japan. Wave recorded all over Pacific. Damage great in Kuriles and Kamchatka with waves to 20 meters. $800,000 damage in Hawaii. 7-9-foot waves in California, 12-foot waves in Chile. $50,000 damage, 10-foot waves in Suva. Slight damage in Japan. Damage in Ecuador and Peru. Extensive damage at La Serena and Tongoy, Chile. $3 million damage in Hawaii. Also damaging on U.S. west coast and in Japan and Chile. 68 dead, much destruction at Acapulco from earthquake and 8J^-foot tsunami. Giant wave, possibly over 1,700 feet high, in Lituya Bay, Alaska. About 1,000 deaths due to tsunami in Chile; 61 dead, $25 million damage in Hawaii; 20 dead in Philippines; 3 dead in Okinawa ; about 200 dead, $50 million damage in Japan; $500,000 damage on U.S. west coast- Slight damage at Port Vila and Forari, New Hebrides. 13-16-foot wave in Kuriles; wave recorded all over Pacific. 50-foot wave in Kuriles; wave recorded all over Pacific. $124 million damage by tsunami, 117 dead in Gulf of Alaska, 4 dead at Depoe Bay, Oreg- 11 dead at Crescent City. 10-foot wave on west coast of Japan. 90 percent of Sanana, Indonesia, destroyed by wave. Slight damage at Amchitka, Aleutian Islands. 0.5 foot at Hilo, Hawaii, and 0.7 foot at Attu, Alaska. 0.5 foot at Unalaska. d. Icebergs. Icebergs that endanger shipping on the transat- lantic routes come from Greenland in the neighbor- hood of Melville Bay or outlying islands. (There is no corresponding iceberg problem in the Pa- cific.) Icebergs reach the transatlantic routes in the greatest numbers in April, May, and June. The iceberg season technically begins on March 1 and ends on June 15, but there are extensions either way depending on the severity of the season. Icebergs are counted as they pass 48° N. latitude. The average number of icebergs per season is 384 based on 55 years of data. The number of icebergs for individual seasons has varied from none to about 1,200. 3. Other Geophysical Hazards a. Earthquakes. Most of the earthquake activity of the United States occurs in Alaska (including the Aleutian Island chain) and in the west coast States. (See fig. 1/11). However, no region is completely free from earthquakes. For example, one of the 20 greatest earthquakes of known history occurred in the Upper Mississippi Valley in 1811. This earthquake had more effect on the topography than any other known on the North American Continent. It has been estimated that earthquakes in Cali- fornia and western Nevada represent approxi- mately 90 percent of the seismic activity of the conterminous United States. The majority of these shocks occur at relatively shallow focal depths of 10 to 15 miles and along known rupture zones or faults. The shallow focal depths partly account for the greater violence of earthquakes in this region as compared with those in the Cen- tral or Eastern United States. The principal fault of this area, the San Andreas, extends over 600 miles throughout California from near the Salton Sea in southern California northwest to Point Arena. Movement along this fault was re- sponsible for the great shocks in 1857 and 1906 and many of lesser magnitudes. Alaska and the Aleutian Islands are part of the great seismic belt that encircles the Pacific. Al- though earthquake activity here is greater than in any other State few of the shocks have caused severe damage because of the absence of large population centers. A notable exception is the earthquake of 1964. The activity in Alaska is separated into two zones. One, approximately 200 miles wide, ex- tends from Fairbanks through the Kenai Penin- sula to the Near Islands. The second zone begins north of Yakutat Bay and extends southeastward to the west coast of Vancouver Island. See fig. 1/11.) Seismic activity in Hawaii centers on the island of Hawaii. Much of this activity is directly as- sociated with volcanic processes, since this is an active volcanic region. However, the stronger shocks that are sometimes felt over all the islands are of tectonic origin. The greatest known earth quake occurred in 1868 and was extremely violent Figure 1/11 35 and destructive, considering the sparsely settled nature of the island. (See fig. 1/11.) During any one year about 1 million earth- quakes are expected to occur ; the pattern is shown in table 1/10. Table 1/10. — Expected earthquake magnitude and frequency Magnitude Average number, annually Great earthquakes. 8 or more 1. 1 Major earthquakes 7-7. 9 18 Destructive earthquakes. 6-6. 9 120 Damaging earthquakes.. 5-5. 9 1,000 Minor strong shocks 4-4. 9 6,000 Generally felt shocks 3-3. 9 49, 000 Potentially perceptible. _ 2-2. 9 300, 000 Imperceptible or local- ized. 600, 000 Table 1/11 shows North American distribution, by area, of the proportional parts of the total Table 1/11. — Earthquake energy North America Percentage of total world energy released Percentage of total earthquakes in world, annually West Coast and Aleutians Remainder 3. 1 . 3 6. 1 . 3 energy released in the world annually by earth- quakes, in comparison with the areal percentage of total number of earthquakes. No periodicity has been determined for earth- quake occurrence in any particular area. Table 1/12 lists the major earthquakes of the United States and the loss of life. Figure 1/12 shows the network of seismograph stations operated in the United States. b. Avalanches, landslides, and volcanoes. The remote mountain areas of the United States are the scene of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of avalanches each winter ; however, most are not wit- nessed. In certain locations, which are increasing in number, avalanches and mankind do meet. This creates avalanche hazard — a threat to life and property from the cascading snow. The Forest Service was confronted with the ava- lanche hazard problem because so much of the de- sirable skiing terrain is on national forest lands. So the Forest Service, in the interest of public- safety, found itself in the business of forecasting avalanches. Eesearch on landslides is being conducted by the Geological Survey. Information from these studies is made available to local officials who use it in formulating zoning laws. As far as is known, no formal forecasting or warning program is in effect. The only active volcano which is a potential SEISM010GICU B»SE M»P- UNITED STATES Figure 1/12 36 threat to the safety of individuals in the United States is Mauna Loa on the island of Hawaii. The Geological Survey maintains a research and ob- serving station at the volcano and provides infor- mation on eruptions. The Weather Bureau also maintains an observatory on Mauna Loa. The important work being done by the Forest Service and the Geological Survey in connection with avalanches, landslides, and volcanoes is rec- ognized. However, because of the extremely local nature and very limited extent of these hazards, arrangements for warning of their occurrence are not included in the proposed hazard warnings plan. Table 1/12. — Major U.S. earthquakes and loss of life 1811 1812 1868 1872 1886 1899 1906 1915 1918 1925 1933 1934 1935 1940 1946 1949 1952 1954 1955 1958 1959 1960 1964 Place New Madrid, Mo San Juan Capistrano, Calif Hayward, Calif Owens Valley, Calif Charleston, S.C San Jacinto, Calif San Francisco, Calif Imperial Valley, Calif Puerto Rico (killed by sea wave from earthquake in Mona Pas- sage) Santa Barbara. Calif Long Beach, Calif Kosmo, Utah Helena, Mont Imperial Valley, Calif Hawaiian Islands (killed by sea wave from earthquake in Aleu- tian Islands) Puget Sound, Wash Kern County, Calif Eureka- Areata, Calif Oakland, Calif Khantaak Island and Lituya Bay, Alaska ^ . Hebgen Lake, Mont Hilo, Hawaiian Islands (killed by sea wave from earthquake off the coast of Chile) Prince William Sound, Alaska (al- most all deaths were along the Gulf of Alaska and west coast of United States from resulting sea wave) Lives lost Several 40 30 27 60 6 700 6 116 13 120 2 4 9 173 8 13 1 1 5 28 61 156 4. Astro physical Hazards a. Geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances and polar-cap absorption. (See sec. VII, C for definitions.) Although the occurrence of geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and polar-cap absorp- tions cannot be considered natural hazards, per se, they are considered here because : 1. The disturbances may interfere with HF radio transmissions of disaster warnings. 2. The communications systems established for disaster warnings may be useful in expediting raw data input to the Central Radio Propagation Lab- oratory for use in its forecasting and warning pro- gram. Therefore, communications interference will be treated as a "natural hazard," which it may well be in the case of a community which fails to receive a disaster warning on time. Two parameters used to describe the statistics of radio propagation are the occurrence of auroras and geomagnetic storms. Both of these para- meters correlate closely with communications dis- turbances and with each other. Figure 1/13 shows a Northern Hemisphere dis- tribution of visual auroras. The contour lines are labeled in percentages of nights on which auroras occur. The percentage increases from 1 in the Southern United States to 100 in the auroral zone, which runs across central Alaska to the vicinity of Southern Greenland and Iceland. This does not mean that high frequency propagation is impossi- ble in the auroral zone, but it is certainly more diffi- cult, and during exceptionally bright auroras (in- tense magnetic storms) , radio blackouts frequently occur. North of the auroral zone, the frequency decreases. Additionally, figure 1/13 gives a picture of the general effect of latitude on frequency of com- munications disturbances. However, there are other effects to be considered, e.g., the sunspot cycle. Figure 1/14 shows how the sunspot numbers (R*) and frequency of geomagnetic storms ( for this pur- pose we can define a geomagnetic storm as an oc- currence of %K P ^.S0) vary from years of sun- spot maximum (1937, 1947, and 1957) to years of sunspot minimum (1944, 1954, and 1964). The equinoctial months are marked by a high frequency of magnetic storms. Figure 1/15 shows the monthly frequency of geomagnetic storms for the years 1937-64. Thus we can see, by combining figures 1/ 13-1/1 5, that the communications dis- turbance problem is greatest at high latitudes, dur- ing the years from shortly before until several years after solar maximum and near the time of the equinoxes. b. Cosmic radiation. Since cosmic radiation increases in intensity with height, highflying aircraft such as supersonic transports face a real hazard. The exact nature of the hazard will depend on the final design of tne aircraft, e.g., flight profile, shielding available, etc. However, it is considered by those who have studied the problem that two categories of persons could be adversely affected by cosmic radiation as- sociated with solar flares: (1) crewmembers who may fly say 500 hours per year, as compared to most passengers who presumably would fly fewer hours, and (2) pregnant women, even if the num- ber of hours flown is small. There are two types of cosmic radiation to be considered: (1) galactic cosmic rays, which come to the earth and its atmosphere from an unknown source outside the solar system; and (2) solar cosmic rays, which are emitted from the sun dur- ing intense solar flares. The first type contributes a rather steady background radiation upon which the second type may be superimposed for brief intervals. There is no forecasting problem with 789-862 0--G5- 37 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE OF NIGHTS ON WHICH AU1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE UNDER FAVORABLE Figure 1/13 the first type, but it would be extremely valuable for the operation of supersonic transports to have warnings issued for the second type. The fore- casting of solar cosmic rays involves, first of all the forecasting of intense solar flares. Of the many major flares which are observed in a typical active year, there may be only two or three that produce dangerous cosmic ray flux. The flare forecasting problem and the cosmic ray forecast- ing problem will require considerably more study. BRIEF STATEMENTS OF AGENCY RESPONSIBILITIES The following brief statements indicate the areas of responsibility of those agencies which participated in this stud} 7 and the preparation of this report. Agencies are listed alphabetically. The statutory and executive basis for each agency's responsibility is given in section VII, A. Central Radio Propagation Laboratory. Environ- mental Science Services Administration. De- partment of Commerce Communications disturbances. — The Central Radio Propagation Laboratory (CRPL) is the primary U.S. Government organization with re- sponsibility for research on and for issuance of forecasts of communications disturbances that af- fect HF radio transmission. In addition, several military and private communications agencies is- 38 COMPARISON OF SUNSPOT NUMBER WITH FREQUENCY OF MAGNETIC STORMS 125- SUNSPOT /» X NUMBER \ \ \ \ 100- 75- t I 1 1 1 AVG. Rz 50- 25- ■ *** + FREQUENCY OF MAGNETIC STORMS \\ 1 t J i / AVG FREQ 5K P >30 13 19 19 1 1 1 37 36 39 40 47 48 49 5 57 58 59 60 1 1 1 1 4! 42 43 44 51 . 52 S3 54 61 62 63 64 ■ 45 4 55 5 Figure 1/14 ANNUAL VARIATION OF MAGNETIC STORMS ( 1937-1964 ) Figure 1/15 sue various types of advice to their operators. For the most part these are based on CRPL data plus local data available to the individual agency, such as their existing communication quality figures, local observations of geomagnetic activity, solar activity, etc. Recently the forecasting activities at CRPL have been expanded to include space environment, with its cosmic radiation problems. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Environmental Science Services Administration, Department of Commerce Earthquakes. — The U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey has a broad charter from Congress assign- ing it basic responsibility for the seismological program of the U.S. Government. In May 1965 a program entitled "Earthquake Prediction: A Proposal for a 10-Year Program of Research" was prepared by the Ad Hoc Panel on Earthquake Prediction of the President's Office of Science and Technology. A proposal has been submitted to place the management of the program within the Coast and Geodetic Survey because of the agency's long experience and capability in necessary fields of research. Tsunamis. — The Coast and Geodetic Survey is" responsible for operation of a seismic sea wave (tsunami) warning system serving all Pacific areas. After the disastrous tsunami of April 1, 1946, which caused great loss of life and property in the Hawaiian Islands, a series of conferences were held with civilian and military officials. As a result, strategically located seismograph and tide stations were selected and arrangements completed for their participation in the program. Communi- cations from these stations to the system headquar- ters at Honolulu were provided by the Department of Defense, the Federal Aviation Agency, and other Government agencies, both foreign and do- mestic. Initially, the system had the function of providing tsunami information and warnings to the civilian population and military organizations in Hawaii. Shortly thereafter, the service was extended to other U.S. military bases throughout the Pacific. Within the past few years, several foreign countries and some of the major islands of the Pacific have been accepted into the system, necessitating the addition of several tide and seis- mic stations to provide adequate technical data. U.S. Coast Guard. Department of the Treasury Marine safety. — The primary functions of the Coast Guard are to provide search and rescue serv- ices, to develop and administer a merchant marine safety program, to maintain a state of readiness for military operations in time of war or national emergency, to provide a comprehensive system of aids to navigation for the Armed Forces and ma- rine commerce, to carry out an effective port secu- rity program, and to enforce or assist in the enforcement of Federal laws on the high seas or waters subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. It also conducts an oceanography pro- gram, maintains ocean stations, provides icebreak- ing services, and trains a force of officer and enlisted reservists. Some of its vessels are assigned to the International Ice Patrol, the Bering Sea, Patrol, and to Ocean Stations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Coast Guard broadcasts Notices to Mar- iners, including warnings relevant to the safety of small boats in coastal areas, and takes appropri- ate measures to apprise deep-sea vessels of hurri- cane and other storm warnings. Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army Flood control. — The civil functions of the Army Corps of Engineers include administration of the statutory flood control responsibilities of the Secre- tary of the Army and the Chief of Engineers. Each major flood control project is authorized and funded separately by an act of Congress. Con- tinuing authorities provide for the limited con- struction of smaller flood control projects. In addition, Congress has provided in Public Law 99, 84th Congress, as amended, a special con- tinuing authority for emergency flood control ac- tivities including flood emergency preparation, flood-fighting and rescue work during the period of actual emergency, and postflood repair and restoration of flood control works. Under authority contained in section 206 of the Flood Control Act of 1960, the Corps conducts flood plain information studies, including compila- tion and dissemination of information on floods and flood damages. 39 In accordance with various congressional acts, the Corps also constructs, maintains, and operates projects in the interest of flood control, hydro- electric power generation, and navigation. The Corps of Engineers maintains close coordination and cooperation with the other Federal agencies concerned, including many cooperative joint activities. The radio communications facilities of the Corps of Engineers consist of radio networks in each engineer division, using HF, VHF, single sideband, and CW. Within each division, each district has a network tailored to its requirements, for communication with its division office, and with fixed or mobile stations within its jurisdic- tional boundaries. These systems provide primarily for emergency communications requirements, serving as a means of operational communication with Corps dams and floating facilities (dredges, etc.) and for the control of movement of commercial vessels through locks and canals operated by the Corps. The Corps network could be utilized by ESSA for relay of specific disaster warnings to a particular area, by requesting the appropriate district office to relay the message via its network to specific fixed or mobile stations within that area. Federal Communications Commission I. Organization and regulation. — The Federal Communications Commission was created by the passage of the Communications Act of 1934. This act, as amended, gives the Commission jurisdic- tion over interstate and international telephone and telegraph services, all domestic non-Govern- ment radio operations, promotion of the use of wire and radio communications to safeguard life and property and otherwise serve the public, and utilization of communications facilities to 'aid the National Defense program. The Commission al- locates bands of radio frequencies to several non- Government services; assigns specific frequencies within those bands to individual radio stations; authorizes station power and identifying calls; licenses radio stations and the operation of trans- mitters ; and regulates long-distance common car- rier telephone and telegraph services, including wire, cable, and radio, as well as satellite space communications. II. National defense functions and planning by the Commission. — The Department of Defense in April of 1962 notified the Commission that there was no longer a general requirement to shut down radio stations in order to deny navigational aid to enemy aircraft. In other words, with a few specific exceptions, there was no longer a military require- ment for continuance of CONELRAD (Control of Electromagnetic Radiation Program). Upon re- ceiving this notification, the Commission began planning with the National Industry Advisory Committee (NIAC) to revise the Emergency Broadcast System. Under Executive Order 11092, dated February 26, 1963, the Commission was as- signed broad telecommunications planning and preparedness responsibilities. In order to carry out these responsibilities effectively, the Commis- sion delegated them to a Defense Commissioner and established the Office of Emergency Communi- cations to carry out the day-to-day responsibilities of this area under his overall policy guidance and direction. This Office prepares and recommends national emergency plans and develops prepared- ness programs to the Defense Commissioner, cover- ing provision of service by common carriers, as well as broadcast, safety, and special radio licensees; provides for the assignment of radio frequencies to FCC licensees for use under emergency condi- tions, and for the protection, reduction of vulner- ability, maintenance, and restoration of facilities operated by its licensees in an emergency. These plans and programs are designed to develop a state of readiness in the areas mentioned, with respect to all conditions of national emergency. The Emergency Broadcast System plan has been de- veloped as a result of the foregoing activity. III. Licensed communications facilities. — The Commission's operations and functions generally can be classified into three areas of responsibility : (1) Broadcast Bureau; (2) Common Carrier Bureau ; and (3) Safety and Special Radio Services Bureau. The Commission has recognized the need for non-Government radio stations to operate their communications facilities in an emergency or an impending emergency for the protection of life and property. This is reflected in section 2.405 of the Commission's rules. Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Secretary of the Army, Department of the Army The Office of Civil Defense has the delegated au- thority to undertake "all steps necessary to warn or alert Federal, military and civilian authorities. State officials, and the civilian population" and "all functions pertaining to communications, includ- ing a warning network, reporting on (fallout) monitoring, instructions to shelters, and communi- cations between authorities." The present Civil Defense Warning System is a combination of Fed- eral, State, and local systems. The Federal por- tion of the system is called the National Warning System (NAWAS). It is essentially an extension of the military warning and detection systems that feed into the Combat Operations Center of the North American Air Defense Command at Colorado Springs, Colo. NAWAS consists of full-period (24-hour) leased telephone circuits. It provides a basic s}^stem for declaring and dissem- inating warnings to State governments and, by special arrangements, directly to selected political subdivisions. Through a relay system, warning information is provided to local authorities who are responsible for sounding public warning de- vices, such as sirens. National communications systems are composed of a leased teletypewriter 40 system with alternate telephone facilities and "radio backup." The NACOM system provides direction and control communications from OCD to its eight regional offices and to the 50 State Civil Defense headquarters. Subject to Department of Defense policy guidance and requirements, its warning and communications systems are under the management of the Defense Communications Agency and are budgeted and funded by the De- partment of the Army in support of Civil Defense. NAWAS and outdoor warning systems are de- signed primarily for the dissemination of attack warning information. However, DOD has au- thorized and encouraged the use of these systems for dissemination of natural disaster advisories and warnings. Office of Emergency Planning, Natural Disaster Assistance, Executive Office of the President In general, the role of OEP in disaster situations is to direct and coordinate the assistance provided by departments and agencies of the Federal Gov- ernment to an area declared to be a disaster area. OEP maintains close liaison with the Governor of the State and his staff and with the authorities of communities adversely affected. Representing the President, OEP expedites attention to the prob- lems that accompany the disaster and provides guidance for the rehabilitation effort. Where the situation warrants, personnel of the OEP regional or national office are assigned to the stricken area to provide immediate on-the-scene guidance and to assist State and local authorities in the preparation of project applications. These temporary field offices have served to expedite decisions and sim- plify procedure. Specifically, the OEP administers the Federal Disaster Act, Public Law 81-875, for the Presi- dent. Federal assistance under this program is es- sentially aid to the State and affected communi- ties — for the protection of life and property and for the emergency repair of essential public facilities. Federal financial assistance under Public Law 875 provides for debris clearance, protective, health and sanitation measures, and the emer- gency repair or temporary replacement of essential public facilities, including provision for tempo- rary housing and emergency shelter. The aid to the State or to a political subdivision of the State may include clearing debris and wreckage from the streets, or from private prop- erty if there is a threat to the public health or safety. It may include protective, health, or sani- tation measures, such as the emergency expedients necessary to meet a wal er-pollution problem or for vector control. Eligible work also includes the emergency restoration of essential public facilities and services by the emergency repair or temporary replacement of roads and bridges, water and sewer lines, dikes, levees and drainage facilities, public buildings, and equipment. Weather Bureau, Environmental Science Services Administration, Department of Commerce The Weather Bureau has the statutory respon- sibility for providing a national meteorological service. This service consists of reporting the weather and climate of the United States and its possessions, and issuing forecasts and warnings of weather and flood conditions affecting the Nation's safety, welfare, and economy. These warnings include : Hurricane. Tornado. Flood. Storm surge. Blizzard. Cold wave. Freeze. Duststorm. Severe local storm. Storm (coastal). Fire weather. Gale. Many other special-purpose warnings for special interests such as aviation, marine, agriculture, etc., form part of the service. Under the Supplemental Appropriation Act, 1962, Public Law 87-332, approved September 30, 1961, the Weather Bureau is responsible for the establishment and operation of a system for the continuous observation of worldwide meteorologi- cal conditions from space satellites and for the re- porting and processing of the data obtained for use in weather forecasting. In discharging its statutory responsibility, the Weather Bureau performs the following general functions : 1. Makes observations and measurements of atmospheric phenomena as required for scientific analysis and techniques for meteorological services and research ; 2. Develops and distributes forecasts of weather conditions and warnings of severe storms and other adverse weather conditions for protection of life and property; 3. Collects, tabulates, analyzes, and publishes records of temperature, rainfall, and other cli- matic elements for the United States, the oceans, and certain foreign areas ; 4. Maintains constant watch over river stages and those weather conditions which produce floods ; provides warnings of impending floods, in addition to regular forecasts of river stages for navigation and of seasonal water supply ; partici- pates with other Federal agencies in hydro- meteorological investigations for overall planning and development of water resources ; 5. Participates in the development and opera- tion of the basic international meteorological re- porting network, the maintenance of observational standards, the coordination of international ex- changes of meteorological data, and the promotion and development of meteorological science; and 6. Conducts research on the physical processes in the atmosphere, circulation patterns, improved techniques in weather forecasting, interaction of the ocean and atmosphere, and other aspects of the meteorological science. 41 SECTION II. THE CURRENT NATURAL DISASTER WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION 1. Warning For the purpose of this report, "warning" is de- fined as a notice that natural forces have produced conditions requiring positive action to protect life and/ or property. The warning process, however, must include a most important additional in- gredient : a statement of the action which should be taken to reduce the danger. Any warning system, no matter how simple or sophisticated, must encompass the elements shown in figure II/l. This section includes details on the detection networks, the processing of data (forecasting) prior to preparation of warnings, and brief infor- mation concerning the various centers which process the data and issue the warnings. Com- munications facilities used in transmitting the warnings from the issuing office to the public are dealt with separately in section III, and public re- action problems in section V. Details and prob- lems in connection with detection and data process- ing are given in section IV. 2. The Warning Process "Warning" might seem, on the face of it, a fairly simple problem. We know, to the contrary, that it is a complex, troublesome, and sometimes baffling problem. Most warning processes involve these steps : a. Detection and measurement of changes in the environment which could result in a danger of one sort or another ; b. Collation and evaluation of the incoming in- formation about environmental changes ; c. Decisions as to who should be warned, about what danger, and in what way ; d. Transmission of a warning message, or mes- sages, to those whom it has been decided to warn ; and e. Interpretation of the warning messages and action by the recipients. Two more steps which are logically involved, when there is time, but which often do not occur, are: f . Feedback of information about the actions of recipients to the issuers of warning messages ; and g. New warning messages, if necessary, cor- rected in terms of the people's responses or lack of responses to the first warning message. Ideally, and probably sometimes in practice, an important intermediate step occurs in this process. This is feedback of information from the source of transmission of warnings to the public (e.g. radio station) to the originators of warning mes- sages, so that the latter can check to see if the messages are actually being issued as they intended. METEOROLOGY Detection The organization and various centers which participate in the meteorological hazards warning system are discussed individually in this section. ELEMENTS OF A WARNING SYSTEM ACQUIRES REQUISITE DATA RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: 1. RECOGNIZES THE POTENTIAL 2. ASSESSES ITS SERIOUSNESS 3. PREPARES WARNING COMMUNICATE tt INFORMATION FEEDBACK USER: 1. ASSESSES THE POTENTIAL 2. TAKES APPROPRIATE ACTION T t Figure II/l 43 Basic detection is common to the preparation of all forecasts and warnings for all meteorological hazards, and is dealt with first. It also serves hydrologieal requirements. Supplementary detection networks, necessary to meet the unique requirements for warning of specific hazards, are added to the basic detection network. These include the special rainfall and river stage reporting network for floods and flash floods, the special cooperative hurricane reporting network for hurricanes, the special voluntary tornado and severe storm reporting networks, and others. Four basic detection networks are used in ob- taining the raw data needed in the production of meteorological forecasts and warnings. They are described below. (a) Surface observations netioork. (i) Synoptic observations netioork. — These are measurements of pressure, temperature, wind, etc., made at 3- and 6-hour intervals over much of the world. The United States operates about 620 such stations. (ii) Aviation observations netioork. — The avia- tion observations are essentially the same type of measurement as synoptic observations, but are made at hourly intervals and are tailored espe- cially for aviation operations. They are supple- mented at more frequent intervals as needed. The United States operates about 830 stations. (b) Upper-air observations network. — Obser- vations are made of wind, temperature, humidity, and pressure from the surface to about 100,000 feet. These observations are generally made every 12 hours. Some stations in the conterminous States take these observations every six hours: under selected meteorological situations, some sta- tions take these observations every few hours. (c) Radar observations network. — Observa- tions of radar "echoes" received from precipita- tion, indicating the intensity, area of coverage, configuration, etc. The national weather radar network (fig. II/2) is fairly complete over the middle and eastern parts of the United States, but most of the remainder is not covered by radar. (d) Satellite observations network. — Large- scale depictions of global cloud patterns are ob- tained by means of meteorological satellites. They are most useful in detecting hurricanes and ty- phoons over data-sparse ocean areas. Of the 128 tropical cyclones observed since the beginning of the TIROS weather satellite program in 1961, 38 were first discovered by satellite photographs. Figure II/3 is a depiction of the use made of basic and supplementary detection networks in connection with forecasts and warnings of indi- vidual meteorological hazards. WEATHER BUREAU RADAR NETWORK LEGEND WSR 57 ^ WSR.57M|pl on ned| □ SP-1 * WSR 1 . 1 A or 3 • WSRI.IA o. 3 limilcd Ul i o WSR 4 i WSR- 4 limhed u • * DECCA 41 * H0US O N &RT M>OR^ vV ARTHUR GALVESTON # 8 44 Figure II/2 DETECTION NETWORKS AND THEIR USE IN THE PREPARATION OF WARNINGS OF METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS BASIC DATA NETWORKS METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS SUPPLEMENTARY DATA NETWORKS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 1. SYNOPTIC 2. AVIATION TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING WIND, HAIL, AND LIGHTNING SEVERE LOCAL STORM OBSERVATIONS UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE 'SIGMET" OBSERVATIONS 2 RADAR OBSERVATIONS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS 1 THESE ARE MOSTLY IN THE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STAGE HURRICANES, TYPHOONS,AND OTHER TROPICAL STORMS OF LESSER INTENSITY WINTER STORMS, INCLUDING NORTHEASTERS, BLIZZARDS, COLD WAVES, HEAVY SNOW, STORM SURGES, ICE STORMS, AND STRONG WIND FIRE-WEATHER AND DUSTSTORMS AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE CHURN OBSERVATIONS 3 SNOW AND ROAD CONDITION OBSERVATIONS SPECIAL FIRE-WEATHER OBSERVATIONS 2. SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION (FOR AIRCRAFT) 3. COOPERATIVE HURRICANE REPORTING NETWORK. SOME COASTAL STATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT YEAR-ROUND Figure II/3 TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 1. Detection Radar is the most valuable single tool used in detecting and tracking tornadoes and severe local storms. Of almost equal importance in detection is the organized network of volunteer "spotters" who telephone a local Weather Bureau office when- ever a tornado funnel cloud or severe local storm is observed. This volunteer network includes lo- cal and State police, firemen, and other interested citizens. 2. Data Processing and Preparation of Warnings The Weather Bureau maintains a Severe Local Storm (SELS) Forecast Center at Kansas City where specialists devote full attention to assess- ment of conditions favoring development of severe thunderstorm activity with which tornadoes are usually associated. Each morning, this Center issues an outlook giving the most likely areas of severe thunderstorm activity during the next 24- hour period. These outlooks are issued for the in- formation of all forecast offices whenever it is deemed advisable to mention the possibility of severe local storm development in the morning forecast. The outlook also assists all offices in preliminary planning for additional manning, etc., in the event that a public severe weather forecast is issued later. After issuing the outlook, the SELS Forecast Center maintains a continuous watch on the possi- bility of severe local storm development. When the weather data, including radar information, show more definite indications of local storm de- velopment, the Center issues severe weather fore- casts. If possible, they are issued 6 hours in advance of expected severe weather, but the aver- age leadtime is about iy 2 hours. The areas covered by the forecasts are usually about 20,000 to 30,000 square miles. An IBM 1620 computer is used at the SELS Forecast Center to speed the processing of hourly reports received on teletypewriter circuits and to make computations based on changes in surface pressure patterns and stability of the air. These computations alert forecasters to areas that are fre- quently associated with the development of severe local storms. Using the SELS severe weather forecasts as guidance, local Weather Bureau offices issue severe weather forecasts for their areas, specifying the 45 counties that are included in the forecasts. Every county in the United States is assigned to a nearby Weather Bureau office for warning responsibility. Severe weather warnings are issued when radar shows a typical tornado-type echo, or when a fun- nel or tornado is observed and reported to the Weather Bureau. These warnings are issued by local Weather Bureau offices. They warn the pub- lic of the approach and path of severe local weather conditions, as reported and as observed and tracked by radar. Followup severe weather statements are dis- tributed by all offices that have distributed a severe weather forecast or warning, to provide informa- tion about new weather developments or the lack of developments. Statements are also issued to clarify false rumors of severe local storms. "All clear" statements, indicating that the threat has ended, are released and distributed at the ap- propriate times by all offices that have made pub- lic distribution of severe weather warnings or forecasts. In summary, the sequence of Weather Bureau public releases is as follows: a. Distribute severe weather forecasts ; b. Include mention of expected severe weather in routine public forecasts ; c. Issue severe weather statements, updating re- leases as appropriate ; d. Issue severe weather warnings based on net- work reports or on radar reports ; and e. Issue all-clear statements. HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPI- CAL CYCLONES OF LESSER INTEN- SITY 1. Detection In addition to the basic detection network, hur- ricane forecasting centers depend heavily upon special hurricane reconnaissance planes operated by the Air Force and Navy. Full operational use is also made of special research observations taken by planes of the Weather Bureau's Research Flight Facility, based at Miami. All ships operat- ing in critical or suspicious areas are requested by radio to make special observations. Continuous watch is maintained at all Weather Bureau and cooperative radar sites within range of the storm. If the tropical cyclone approaches land areas of the gulf or Atlantic coast, special weather reports are received from the Cooperative Hurricane Re- porting Network stations along the coast. Special tide height observations and reports of sea and surf conditions are also obtained. 2. Data Processing and the Preparation of Warnings Weather Bureau hurricane warning centers and their respective areas of warning responsibility are shown in figures II/4 and II/5. Warnings are is- sued to the public, including maritime and avia- tion interests. (The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, is responsible for the issuance of warnings for all tropical cyclones west of 180° to the Malay Peninsula and north of the Equator. This warning center is operated jointly by the Air Force and Navy.) Normally, during the progress of a tropical cy- clone, four advisory messages a day are issued, based on primary observations taken at interna- tionally agreed times every 6 hours and in accord- ance with internationally adopted standard proce- dures. For tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, the advisory mes- sages usually are distributed at 5 a.m. and p.m. and at 11 a.m. and p.m., eastern standard time. Simi- lar advisories are made for the Pacific area. When the tropical cyclone is in open sea, vessels in its path are warned. If it approaches or is likely to affect a land area, a "hurricane watch" is an- nounced. The hurricane watch is an announce- ment issued to cover areas where all interests should make every effort to keep advised regarding WEATHER BUREAU HURRICANE FORECAST CENTERS AND AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY IN THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, AND GULF OF MEXICO BOSTON WASHINGTON • NEW ORLEANS a MIAMI MIAMI • SAN JUAN Figure II/4 WEATHER BUREAU HURRICANE FORECAST CENTERS AND AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY IN THE PACIFIC SAN FRANCISCO Figure II/5 46 progress of a hurricane (or developing hurricane) , but where conditions do not yet justify hurricane warnings. If the tropical cyclone continues to move toward the coast, a hurricane warning is is- sued. When it comes within range, coastal radar stations (Weather Bureau, military, and private) also observe and report on its movement. During this critical period additional advisories are issued at intermediate times. Hurricane fore- casters are on duty throughout the 24 hours, and special public bulletins are issued at frequent intervals. Using every available means of communication, immediate and widespread distribution is given all hurricane warnings and hurricane watch notices. The Hurricane Teletypewriter Circuit makes this information immediately available to all connected local Weather Bureau offices. Each receiving office then gives the warning further local or regional amplification and distribution by radio, television, newspaper, telephone, and other dissem- ination channels. Hurricane warnings also are placed on nationwide teletypewriter circuits which carry the information to inland as well as coastal stations. Arrangements are made with radio and television stations for immediate broadcast of tropical cyclone information, and in many cases special facilities are available for live broadcasts from Weather Bureau offices. The aim of the Weather Bureau Hurricane Warning Service is to issue timely hurricane watch notices and hurricane warnings to all individuals and interests in threatened areas so that all pos- sible preparations for the safeguarding of lives and property can be taken. WINTER STORMS The issuance and dissemination of winter storm warnings is primarily made by the Weather Bu- reau's area forecast centers. These centers and their areas of responsibility are shown in figure Winter weather warnings usually are issued by these centers as part of regular State forecasts. Additional detail is added in zone and local fore- FlGUEE II/6 casts and warnings. These warnings are designed to deal with the usually complex weather of a winter storm. It is not unusual to issue warnings of,, many meteorological hazards, such as blizzards, heavy snows, cold waves, etc. as a single storm moves across the country. To aid in presenting a coherent picture of the storm, special weather bulletins are issued by a regional forecast office. There are nine such offices, which pass responsibility for issuing bulletins from one to the next as the storm moves from one area to another. The bulletins give a summary of the warnings that are in effect as well as information on the storm's extent, intensity, and probable dura- tion. Bulletins are usually issued every 6 hours at 5 a.m. and p.m. and 11 a.m. and p.m., eastern standard time. Bulletins are issued until the storm no longer remains a threat. All warnings and bulletins are disseminated to the press, radio, and television by every available means of communication. These include Service "C" (public forecast network), public dissemina- tion teletypewriter network, and telephone. FIRE WEATHER AND DUSTSTORMS The fire weather service program is a forecast and warning consultation service for forestry and range management groups. The products of basic weather services are supplemented by observations from forest areas and subsequently are interpreted for specific application by Federal, State, and pri- vate groups. Although fire- weather forecasts and warnings are not issued to the general public, they are included here because they form the basis for opening and closing public forest and other rec- reation areas and are used as the basis for organiz- ing firefighting and relief efforts in connection with devastating fires such as the one at Bar Harbor, Maine, in 1947, and the $24 million fire in the Los Angeles area in 1961. There are 63 fire-weather meteorologists at 37 centers, 18 radio-equipped mobile forest units stra- tegically located in 6 western States, and 15 port- able forecast units at the eastern fire- weather cen- ters. The meteorological information provided consists of localized forecasts of maximum tem- perature, minimum humidity, maximum wind, precipitation, and in some cases wind profiles for determining turbulence. These data are used by forest management groups in computing fire in- dices and also in operations to control fires. Various means of communications are used. For example, the Denver fire- weather office is connected to a teletypewriter circuit which connects all for- estry headquarters in the State of Colorado. All offices on this circuit have send/receive capability. In Alaska, the fire- weather office at Anchorage is connected with the Bureau of Land Management teletypewriter circuit. (At the height of the fire season, a fire-weather forecaster is detailed to the "smoke jumpers" headquarters at Fairbanks to provide a direct moans of support.) In the East- 47 ern United States, unlisted telephones connect Weather Bureau offices with forestry headquarters. The warning system for duststorms is the same as that used for any of the meteorological hazards associated with winter storms. The forecasts and warnings are prepared and issued from the offices shown in figure II/6 and the arrangements and procedures are essentially the same as under "Winter Storms" above. CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE AND OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS Forecasts and warnings of clear- air turbulence and other aviation hazards are prepared and issued by the Weather Bureau. The information is pro- vided to both domestic and international aviation through the weather briefing service for aviation which is operated jointly by the FAA and the AVeather Bureau. The forecasts and warnings are provided through channels designed to meet the specific requirements of aviation. Full details will be found in information pamphlets and manuals issued specifically for aviation use. Although these warnings are not issued to the general public, they play a part in the safety of air travel and are mentioned here for information. HYDROLOGY Floods, Including Flash Floods The Weather Bureau provides the Nation's public river and flood forecast and warning serv- ice. In the conterminous United States it is pro- vided through a system of 85 regular Weather Bureau offices (called Eiver District Offices) and 12 River Forecast Centers. Figure II/7 indi- cates those offices concerned with the River and Flood Forecast Service system. This system in- cludes: detection, performed by River District Offices ; data processing, performed by River Fore- cast Centers; and preparation and distribution of warnings by River District Offices. At the present time only three-fourths of the United States is served by River Forecast Centers. In remaining areas, the River District Offices are responsible for all three phases of the subsystem. Figure II/8 is a diagram of the River and Flood Forecast and Warning Service system. The sys- tem to handle flash floods is described at the close of this section. 1. Detection The River District Office collects basic hydro- logic data, administers and maintains river and 129- 125- UT l,r 109" 105" .01" 9V 9T W 8'.- 81- TT W 6ST ST / t^f(]2y?1jVVu^~ / RI ^ ER AND f : LOOD FORECAST SERVICE ^ / \\ JV^\Y)\tr^\ ~j\ , c id >> jC MT \ ed v Vn ' ' ( >f^r&&? /^ 7 ""°" \ ' "iW — i- ' --^li^t^LX "/EeTaS/** ^^^d^&^M^^M-J^ oWttl m2$ 1 (M pyw^^^^^^ Jfwvkg/yM \ / 1 jn f- I v_\ X/h \\ \ «4f Nci r^~. — "~^^ r- / vs^^-V'sill / » 1 W v > v. ■ ^ V / eT u.-- , ^4r Y^^ y—™.^ -M> T , \A^J^x^^^-r:^9^tf^s --£. =*£ /. Location of River District Offices Lk /"^\ (T^ Rivfr Di-.trirt Boundary ~^fr~ ! [O Location of River Forecast Centers \A J \ ---River Forecast Center Boundary \ 1 q2^~_ j — i Areas Served by River Forecast Centers ■• 1 "^"Includes Water Supply Forecast Service f cf the following Kansas City, Mo. Missouri Basin, St. Mary Basin Portland, Oreg. Columbia Basin, North Pacific Sacramento, Calif. Sacramento, San Joaquin Basin Salt Lake City, Utah Colorado Basin, Rio Grande B< Hartford, Conn. Northeastern States Coastal Be s, Cal iforn isin, Arkan GULF sins a, North co as Basin OF |M E X 1 L ^-H ^ jstal, Mojave and Owens Basins 1 \ 1 1 \ \ ( Service planned for Alaska and Hawaii ) Figure II/7 48 RIVER a FLOOD FORECAST AND WARNING SYSTEM Forecasts, Warnings, 8 Observations \ Upstream River Forecast Centers RIVER FORECAST CENTER L \ RADIO & TV L \ CIVIL DEFENSE STATE POLICE Downstream River Forecast Centers CORPS OF ENGINEERS \ KEY DISTRIBUTORS FLOOD COMMITTEES L\ BUREAU OF RECLAMATION \ SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE \ OTHER FEDERAL, STATE.AND LOCAL AGENCIES L EG END 'WZ& RAINFALL REPORTING STATIONS ^^ RIVER STAGE REPORTING STATIONS I C | LOCAL COOPERATIVE "FLASH FLOOD" SYSTEMS — — — -- FLOW OF OBSERVATIONS — — ^— FLOW OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS Weather Forecast Stations Synoptic Stations Headquarters Washington, D.C.N National Summaries of Forecasts 8 Observations LOCAL DISSEMINATION OF DATA Figure II/8 rainfall reporting networks, and maintains active cooperation with the field offices of other agencies which supply additional basic data. These agencies include the Army Corps of Engineers, the Geological Survey, and others. Most observa- tions are manual and are communicated via voice telephone service. Radar information, another important input, is available to both the River District Offices and the River Forecast Center through the RAWARC System. The River Dis- trict Office forwards observational data to the appropriate River Forecast Center by telephone, commercial teletypewriter, and/or internal tele- typewriter circuits. The basic hydrologic data reporting network for the United States is made up of approximately 1,800 river and 4,000 rainfall and meteorological observation stations. 2. Data Processing and Preparation of Warnings River and flood forecasting is concentrated in the 12 River Forecast Centers. Several river dis- tricts, each with its reporting network and as- signed number of forecast points, make up the area served by a River Forecast Center. A group of specially trained hydrologists processes the data, using objective forecast procedures based upon historical events. They take into account changing channel hydraulics, soil conditions, season of the year, and storm rainfall and dura- tion. The manual computation of forecasts is giving way to modern digital computer methods as rapidly as resources for automatic data process- ing become available. Forecasts are issued for more than 1,400 locations on the principal river systems of the United States. For those portions of the country not yet served by a River Forecast Center, River District Offices manually prepare their own forecasts for an additional 400 locations. River District Offices, using the forecasts pre- pared by the River Forecast Centers, prepare and 49 distribute warnings to the public. Areas of po- tential inundation are described, and evacuation and other precautionary measures are suggested. Warnings are telephoned directly to a responsible official of the community. Warning messages are distributed to press wires, radio stations, and tele- vision stations in the area. Increasing use is be- ing made of Weather Bureau local and statewide public dissemination teletypewriter networks as segments of this facility become available. Flash Flood Warning Service The nature of this disaster is implied in the term "flash" flood and relates to a most critical element in the warning service — time. It is often impossible to collect the necessary observations, transmit them to an appropriate office, process them, prepare a forecast, and relay a warning to the threatened community in time for it to arrive in advance of the flash flood. In a number of in- stances, the Weather Bureau has established co- operative local community flash-flood warning systems. The Weather Bureau assists the community to establish a network of rainfall and river observing stations. A local flash-flood warning representa- tive is appointed to collect the reports, prepare the forecast, and issue the warning on the basis of a procedure developed by the Bureau. Whenever possible the Bureau also provides him with ad- vance warning of potentially heavy rainfall de- tected by radar surveillance of the region. The River District Office monitors the community plan and the River Forecast Center provides the fore- casting technique. The number of communities now served by a local community flash-flood warning service is about 80, as shown in figure II/9. EXISTING LOCAL COMMUNITY PLASH FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS . FLASH R.C0D WARWING SYSTEMS Figure II/9 Tsunamis Seismic Sea Wave Warning System Throughout recorded history, the people of the Hawaiian Islands have been victims of many tsu- namis from all quarters of the Pacific. The disas- trous loss of life and property in the Hawaiian Islands which resulted from the tsunami following the Aleutian earthquake of April 1, 1946, empha- sized again the need for an adequate system to warn the Hawaiian Islands and other Pacific areas when such damaging waves occur. The Coast and Geodetic Survey of the U.S. Department of Com- merce accepted the responsibility for developing, administering, and operating such a system. A network of tide stations and seismic stations was set up with the cooperation of the governments of several countries and many private institutions to provide the nucleus of the warning system. Nec- essary instrumentation was developed by the Coast and Geodetic Survey, and the operational head- quarters of the system was located at Honolulu Observatory. Arrangements were made with the Department of Defense, the Federal Aviation Agency, and other government agencies, both for- eign and domestic, to provide communications be- tween the tide and seismic stations and Honolulu Observatory. Initially, the system provided tsunami informa- tion and warnings to the civilian population and to military organizations in Hawaii. Shortly there- after, the service was extended to other United States military bases throughout the Pacific, then to the west coast of the United States, and finally to other countries and territories throughout the Pacific. Since the Coast and Geodetic Survey had no method of communicating directly with the public over so vast an area, the countries, territories, and administrative areas desiring to receive warnings were requested to designate an agency which would be provided with warning information by Hono- lulu Observatory and would be responsible for disseminating the information to the population of its area. Agencies so designated by various governments include civil defense organizations, weather bureaus, military organizations, and others. Warning information is currently supplied to French Polynesia, Japan, the Republic of China, the Republic of the Philippines, the Fiji Islands, Chile, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Western Samoa, Canada, and the U.S. S.R. (through Japan). Data are supplied to the warning system by Peru and two British colonies in the Pacific although no ar- rangements have been made to supply them with warning information. A meeting on the interna- tional aspects of the seismic sea wave warning sys- tem was held at Honolulu, April 27-30, 1965. Rec- ommendations adopted by the meeting concerned international operation of the warning system and technical aspects of data gathering and interpretation. The system at present has one serious limitation — it can provide little or no warning to countries or islands near the epicenter of a submarine earth- quake. Japan has maintained a warning service for a number of years for tsunamis generated 50 nearby. Warnings are issued solely on the basis of seismological data. A similar service is being de- veloped in the conterminous United States and in Alaska with centers to be located at Newport, Washington, and Sitka, Palmer, and Adak, Alaska. These centers will be responsible for the detection and location of earthquakes in their vicinity and for warning the local population whenever major earthquakes occur in nearby areas where tsunamis may be generated. These local centers are to be fully integrated parts of the over- all system which supplies data to Honolulu Ob- servatory and will have warning functions only for tsunamis generated in their immediate area. 1. Detection Data are gathered from seismograph observator- ies in the warning system for use in preparing and issuing tsunami advisories. Tsunami warnings are based upon data received from tide stations as well as data received from the seismograph observatories. In areas where no tide stations participate in the warning system, additional stations will be sought whenever required to provide early confirmation that a tsunami has been generated, thus giving an earlier warning to those areas when they receive tsunami warnings. As the system is expanded to provide warnings to new areas, additional tide stations are frequently required. Seismograph sta- tions are requested to participate whenever needed for the prompt location of epicenters and the de- termination of earthquake magnitudes. Before a seismograph or tide station can be incorporated into the warning system, adequate communications facilities must be available on a 24-hour-a-day basis. This is required because tsunamis can strike at any time of day or night and reliabile, fast communication facilities must be immediately available. Agencies which operate stations located outside the United States or its possessions must assume commercial communications costs for messages to and from a U.S. communication facility. Seismograph stations listed in paragraph 5.2 of the Communication Plan for Seismic Sea Wave Warning System, Fifth Edition, dated November 1963, are responsible for detecting earthquakes and submitting seismological reports to Honolulu Ob- servatory, the operational center of the system. These reports are submitted either in response to specific requests from Honolulu Observatory or upon the initiative of the local observer, whenever a major earthquake is detected. In addition, cer- tain seismological observatories also report di- rectly to the Japan Meteorological Agency which maintains a national tsunami warning system in cooperation with the international system operated at Honolulu Observatory. Designated tide stations are responsible for de- tecting sea waves by means of recording tide gages or automatic tsunami detectors and submitting re- ports to Honolulu Observatory when requested or on their own initiative, whenever a tsunami is detected. 2. Data Processing and Preparation of Warnings Messages conveying data to or requesting data from seismic or tide stations are normally assigned the highest priority available except for those mes- sages carried by military (Defense Communica- tions Agency) channels. Operational control of the warning system is maintained at Honolulu Observatory. In addition, Honolulu Observatory personnel detect earthquakes through a seismome- ter array on Oahu Island. The Observatory staff is responsible for locating earthquake epicenters, requesting seismic and tidal reports, evaluating the reports received, and issuing advisory and warning information to military and public authorities whenever necessary. The operation of the warning system is based on the fact that seismic sea waves travel at approxi- mately 48 times the speed of normal sea waves. Seismic sea waves are generated primarily by sub- marine earthquakes which occur in the ocean floor. The warning system begins to function with the detection of earthquakes which are large enough to cause tsunamis. The detection of earthquakes is accomplished by means of direct-reading seis- mographs at the seismological stations participat- ing in the system. Whenever a large earthquake is recorded by its seismograph, or upon request from Honolulu Observatory, each seismological station promptly sends a seismograph report to Honolulu Observatory. Each seismograph report received at Honolulu Observatory is immediately evaluated to deter- mine the epicenter of the earthquake. When an earthquake of large magnitude occurs in a Pacific Ocean area favorable for the creation of a sea wave, Honolulu Observatory at once sends mes- sages requesting data to the nearest participating tide stations which may record the wave. Such messages require an observer at each tide station concerned to watch the tide gage record for evi- dence of the arrival of the sea wave and to report the results to Honolulu Observatory immediately. These tide reports are promptly evaluated and are used as the basis for determining whether it is necessary to issue warnings in a specific situation. Two kinds of bulletins (advisories and warn- ings) are released to military and civilian agen- cies on the basis of the information gathered and analyzed by Honolulu Observatory. Advisory bulletins are essentially informational bulletins. The initial advisory is usually based on seismological information and is issued when an earthquake of sufficient magnitude to generate a tsunami occurs under the Pacific Ocean or near its border. Advisory bulletins issued prior to the warning message normally include the epi- central location of the earthquake, its magnitude, the time of occurrence, and the estimated times of 51 arrival of the sea wave, if one has been generated, at places for which the system provides warnings. Advisory bulletins issued subsequent to the warn- ing normally carry information on wave heights observed at various places and other information deemed pertinent. Honolulu Observatory issues warning bulletins upon receipt of positive evidence that a sea wave exists. These bulletins include the epicentral lo- cation of the earthquake, the time of occurrence, the magnitude of the earthquake, estimated times of arrival at areas for which warnings are pro- vided, and other information deemed pertinent. Communications facilities between the seismic and tide stations and Honolulu Observatory and between seismic stations and other warning cen- ters are supplied primarily by the Defense Com- munications Agency, the Federal Aviation Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Ad- ministration, and various other governmental and commercial agencies, both foreign and domestic. Locations of tide and seismic stations cooper- ating in the Seismic Sea Wave Warning System are shown on figure 11/10. To fulfill its present mis- sion more adequately, the system needs additional participating seismological observatories in main- land Alaska, the Aleutian Islands, and eastern South America. Additional participating tide stations are needed primarily in the southeastern Pacific region. SEISMIC SEA WAVE WARNING SYSTEM SHOWING REPORTING STATIONS KODIAK • *• ATTU * ADAK MUNALASKA • HACHINOHE • CRESCENT CITY a BERK61EY SHIMIZU • TOKYO SAN PEDRO ^PASADENA LA JOUA * a TUC50N • MIDWAY a. HONG KONG • MARCUS NAWILIW1LI • HONOLULU *• HILO LEGASPI 'GUAM JOHNSTON BALBOA • CHRISTMAS • CANTON APIA HUANCAYO PAG°I ' LA PUNTA^ PAGO * SUVA (PAPEETE) REPORTING STATIONS • TIDE ST ATIONS VALPARAISO • TIDE ST ATIONS HAVING AUTOMATIC WAVE DETECTORS a SEISMOGRAPH STATIONS SANTIAGO Figure 11/10 Seiches on the Great Lakes When meteorological conditions favorable for a seiche are forecast, a seiche warning is issued by the Chicago Weather Bureau Office for the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. This warning is dis- seminated to police units, who clear the beaches, and to the Coast Guard, who warn small craft. When observations confirm that a seiche has oc- curred, warnings are issued for the western shore where police and Coast Guard units perform sim- ilar functions. In the Chicago area, warnings are distributed by a local public dissemination teletypewriter loop to radio, television, and the press. Additionally, one telephone call is made to a central police unit which, in turn, alerts all city and park police units. Icebergs and Sea Ice During the iceberg season, aircraft reconnais- sance is made of the iceberg-prone areas and the transatlantic shipping routes. These reconnais- sance data are supplemented by observations from ships. Iceberg and sea ice charts are prepared by the Coast Guard and are transmitted by radio facsi- mile to ships at sea. In addition, word messages are provided for regularly scheduled radio marine broadcasts. OTHER GEOPHYSICAL FIELDS Earthquakes It is mandatory to advance knowledge of the physics of those processes of the earth which cul- minate in the occurrence of earthquakes, and there- by establish criteria for prediction of the location, size, and time of occurrence of major earthquakes. Principal Coast and Geodetic Survey research ef- forts in this area include: Monitoring active faults; focal mechanism studies from teleseismic observations ; micro-tremor studies ; statistical seis- mological studies ; geophysical field surveys in the vicinity of active faults; laboratory studies of physical properties of rocks ; and aftershock inves- tigations. In addition, the Coast and Geodetic Survey is evaulating seismic risk or probability and is conducting studies of the response of struc- ture and geologic formations to strong earthquake motion. In order to supply some of the necessary basic data for seismic studies, a network of 120 stand- ardized seismograph stations is being installed by C&GS throughout the world. The status of this network as of June 1965 is shown in figure II, 11. 52 140° [60* 180° 60' 160" Figure 11/11 789-862 O— ©5 5 53 SECTION III. PRESENT COMMUNICATIONS FACILITIES INTRODUCTION Modes and means of communicating the warning to the user (the general public, special segments of the public and/or local, State, and Federal agen- cies or groups) are discussed in this section. The users' actions after receiving the warnings are dis- cussed in section V. The responsible agency has very limited means of directly warning the general public or special user groups through its available communications facilities. The Weather Bureau operates a con- tinuous transmission in the VHF band on 162.55 megacycles at three locations. There are also two locations where the Weather Bureau forecaster on duty may activate the Civil Defense sirens directly. Of course, individuals may use the public tele- phone to inquire about warnings — but this is not a direct warning means. The majority of natural disaster warnings reach the public or special user groups through inter- mediate agencies and groups, sometimes singly and sometimes through Federal, State, and local inter- mediate agenices successively before reaching the ultimate user. The broadcast industry (AM/FM and TV) discussed below is by far the most im- portant distribution means. BROADCAST OF EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNINGS BY COMMERCIAL AM-FM- TV STATIONS Depending on the time of day and the preoccu- pation of the public with work, travel, amusement, or sleep, it is very difficult to attract and retain their concentrated attention in any great number. Advantage may be taken of two habits to accom- plish this objective — (1) the habit of many people of keeping their radio sets turned on while work- ing, playing, or driving, and their television sets on during household chores, and (2) the habit of pass- ing along to others anything startling that they have heard. This in turn generates additional au- dience for continuing broadcasts. Therefore, the Weather Bureau relies on the cooperation of the broadcast industry, composed of the AM, FM, and TV station facilities, as the primary method to warn the general public. Surveys show that under emergency conditions the broadcast industry has a potential listening and/or viewing audience of approximately 90 percent of the population. There are 3,985 AM stations operating in the standard broadcast band between 540 and 1600 kc ; 1,216 FM stations operating in the 88-108 mc. band; and 482 television stations operating on Channels 2 to 13. The Federal Communications Commission's license records show that 413 of the standard AM and 93 of the FM broadcast stations operate on a 24-hour basis. The remainder of the AM stations operate only on a sunrise-to-sunset basis, and therefore would not be authorized to operate beyond local sunset. Approximately 700 AM broadcast stations have installed emergency powef , independent of the commercial power lines. All AM, FM, and TV broadcast stations, irrespec- tive of whether they are voluntarily participating in the Emergency Broadcast System, are required to transmit the Emergency Action Notification Signal (EAN'S). (Section 73.921.) The FOC Broadcast Rules were amended in 1958 to provide specifically for the broadcast of emergency weather warnings under Sections 73.90, 73.296, and 73.632, covering AM-FM and TV stations. The operation of broadcast stations during an emer- gency was finalized in FCC Docket Proceedings in November 1963, Rule Sections 73.98, 73.298, cUid 73.675, covering AM-FM and TV stations. Commercial broadcast stations (AM/FM and TV) are not required to broadcast emergency weather warnings ; all weather warnings are trans- mitted at the option of the licensee, who maintains control of the station facilities at all times. Co- operation of the broadcast industry in this pub- lic service has been excellent. With further coordination and the additional facilities proposed in this report, this voluntary assistance should im- prove even further. DISTRIBUTION OF METEOROLOGICAL DISASTER WARNINGS When ESSA is the responsible warning agency, various means are employed currently to reach the public through the mass media of radio. One of the continuous VHF radio transmissions men- tioned above is equipped with a special signal which can activate an alerting device in radio re- ceivers equipped with this device. The voice of the ESSA VHF radio transmission may be broadcast directly over the commercial broadcast station, re- corded for broadcast at a more appropriate time within the broadcaster's schedule (depending upon the urgency of the warning), or the message may be announced by the commercial broadcaster's own personnel. At approximately 90 locations in the 48 conter- minous States a "local loop" 1 is used. This is a teletypewriter circuit originating in the local Weather Bureau office and having receive-only drops at AM and FM stations, television stations, newspaper offices, wire services, and various sub- scribers in the local area that desire the service. Figure III/l shows a typical local loop and the kinds of subscribers. The Weather Bureau op- erates these local teletypewriter loops and they are 55 WASHINGTON, D.C. LOCAL CIRCUIT USERS ESSA Washington Gas & Light Office Emer. Planning Potomac Elect. Power Co. WMAL - TV Evening Star Newspaper Co. Radio Sta. WMAL Amer. Red Cross, Eastern Area Radio Sta. WWDC Washington Post Times Herald Office of Civi 1 Defense Natl Broadcasting Co. Montgomery Co. Rd. Dept. Radio Sta. WTOP City of Alexandria PW Dept Emergency W arn i n g Branch, USWB Radio Sta. WPIX DC Transit Amer. Natl. Red Cross Associated Press Govt of the Dist of Col. Terrett's Auto Laundry Amer. Automobile Assn. Figure III/l available to any subscriber at nominal cost, includ- ing the local connection and machine rental. Here again a positive alerting device or system is avail- able for subscribers who wish to use one. The originating office precedes each warning message with a predetermined character sequence which causes the alerting device ( remote or local light or bell) to start up and operate continuously at any designated location or locations until the device is turned off manually. This device is available through the company which rents the basic receiv- ing teletypewriter. In some few cases, there are "hot lines" or direct voice connections between the office which origi- nates warnings and the broadcaster's studio, per- mitting the duty forecaster to broadcast directly ("live") to the listening public. With sufficient advance warning and preparation (as, for in- stance, in the case of hurricanes) a "live" tele- vision broadcast also can be made. In several areas, local broadcasters, with the encouragement of the FCC, have developed a plan wherein a key station alerts the other members of the system. The member stations, all on a voluntary basis, re- broadcast the same weather warning that the key station carries. Under present rules and prac- tices employed in the commercial broadcasting industry, it is entirely a local and independent determination and judgment when or whether to broadcast a natural disaster warning to the lis- tening public. Additional communications used in reaching the public vary considerably with locality and time, and depend on the kind of natural disaster being warned against. In the case of tsunamis, hurricanes, and radio propagation disturbances, addressed messages (e.g., telegrams) often are sent to the agency or foreign government respon- sible for further action. At the other extreme, loud bailers (airplane-or van-mounted public address systems), mobile sirens, and even house-to-house contact are em- ployed as conditions and time warrant. A typical diagram of today's complicated flow of warnings to the public is shown in figure HI/2. The letters on the flow lines indicate the general mode of communications employed and the ac- companying numerals specify the particular cir- cuit or network used. These are enumerated in table III/l. The tabulations are defined in table C/l of section VII, C, which describes briefly in layman's terms the various communication modes and media available and currently used in the dis- semination of natural disaster warnings. 56 THE FLOW OF WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER AND NON-TROPICAL STORMS RESPONSIBLE WARNING AGENCY A3, B2, B3, D2, Gl, G2, G3 , K5 p u B L 1 C A2, A3, A4, Bl, B3, D2 NEWSPAPERS, RADIO, TV D3, D4, HI A3 UPI, AP A6 _L 11, 12 + A3, A4, Bl, B3, B5 LOCAL AUTHORITIES Kl, K2, K3, K4, K5, K6, K7, K8, K9 B4, B5, D12 STATE AUTHORITIES B4, B5, Jl K6, K7 A2, A4, El FEDERAL AUTHORITIES A2, A7, A8, Dl, D7, Dll, D12, Gl, G2, J4, Kl, K2, K4, K7 E2, Gl, G3 it MAYOROR OTHER LOCAL AUTHORITY MAY ISSUE STATEMENTS TO NEWSPAPERS, AND/OR SPEAK OVER BROADCASTING, STATIONS VV^v^/ SEE TABLE lll/l FOR LIST OF DESIGNATIONS, SUCH AS Al , B3, Dl 1 , ETC . Figure III/2 Table III/l. — Communications methods, by class A. Teletypewriter Al. Direct line A2. A, C, and O Networks A3. Public Dissemination Network A4. Radar Report and Warning Coordination (RAW- ARC) System A5. Commercial (TWX, TELEX, etc.) A6. AP, UPI A7. FAA-AFTN A8. Coast Guard A9. NACOM 1 Network B. Telephone Bl. Direct line B2. Automatic (WE 6-1212) B3. Commercial B4. NACOM 1 Network B5. NAWAS C. Telegraph and Cable CI. Commercial Telegraph C2. Commercial Cable D. Radio Dl. Continuous L/MF Broadcast D2. Continuous VHF Transmission D3. Commercial D4. Commercial, by special live broadcast by warning agency D5. HF (AM, SSB, etc.) D6. NACOM 2 Network (Voice and/or CW) D7. Coast Guard D8. Amateur D9. Private Networks D10. ARINC Dll. FAA-ATS D12. Other Federal and State Communications Systems E. Facsimile El. National Weather Facsimile Network E2. High Altitude Weather Facsimile Network E3. Forecast Center Facsimile Network F. Radioteletypewriter Fl. FAA-AFTN F2. Commercial F3. NACOM 2 G. Radio facsimile Gl. Weather Bureau G2. Coast Guard G3. Other Federal Government H. Newsprint HI. Newspapers I. Television 11. Commercial TV 12. Commercial, by special live broadcast by warning agency J. Compound or Unspecified Jl. State Communications Systems J2. NASA Facilities J3. DCA Facilities J4. All Other Federal Agency Communications Net- works and Facilities J5. Foreign Government Communications Facilities K. Signals and Contacts Kl. Flags K2. Lights K3. Flares K4. Signs K5. Fixed Sirens K6. Person-to-Person (House-to-House) K7. Loud Hailers, Public Address Systems K8. Mobile Sirens K9. Bells 57 Figure III/2 applies to severe winter weather and/or nontropical wind storms. Details given in the figure are more or less typical. Some disasters or potential disasters require more com- plicated means, others are somewhat simpler and more direct, especially where only special segments of the public are involved. The top flow line in figure HI/2 indicates five definite modes of disseminating the warnings di- rectly to the user — sometimes the general public, sometimes special segments of the public. The first coded group, A3, indicates that teletypewriter is used and that it is the public dissemination (or local loop) network (employed in 90 locations). Reference to figure III/l will verify that certain special users benefit from these warnings directly. The second means of communicating is B2, the WEather 6-1212 telephone service (in 14 metro- politan areas). This number is often called by the general public when there is reason to suspect the approach of severe weather conditions. B3 — the public telephone — is listed here. Through custom, and to accommodate important detailed inquiries that are difficult if not impossible to meet with other available means, each Weather Bureau office has a list of individuals who must be dialed in succession on the commercial telephone. In many areas this list contains more than 20 dif- ferent names. D2 is the continuous VHF radio transmission which, as mentioned earlier, is operated in only three localities. Gl, G2, and G3, radiofacsimile, reach certain subscribers such as airlines and maritime users, who must themselves take protective action. Lastly, K5 represents the activation of warning sirens directly by a Weather Bureau office (currently in only two locations). The second flow line is the path from the agency responsible for issuance of the warning to the mass disseminators. A2, A3, and A4 indicate that many newspapers and radio and television stations maintain drops on the Weather Bureau regular or special weather circuits. The FAA operates parts of Services A, G, and O (See figs. HI/3, III/4 and HI/5) for the Weather Bureau under an agree- ment consummated when both agencies were part of the Department of Commerce. Bl and B3 are inserted to show that the mass media in general (newspapers and radio and television stations) are sometimes on the call list of local Weather Bureau offices. In many instances there is a direct line for "live broadcasts" between the Weather Bureau office and the local radio broadcast station. D2 in- dicates that, in the areas of the present three VHF continuous radio transmissions, commercial broad- casters use them as a supplemental back-up means of receiving natural disaster warnings to pass on to their listening public. Warnings from the mass disseminators reach the public through news- print, standard AM/FM radio broadcast (by broadcast station personnel, or with the voice of the duty forecaster from the local Weather Bureau office) and through television (either by the efforts of the broadcast stations' own personnel and/or graphic arts, or by a remote telecast from the Weather Bureau office, using government person- nel and charts or radar scope presentation). The 58 Figure III/3 FlGUBE III/4 SERVICE "O" SYSTEM Trajismit O Receive-onl7 station - govt — — Dual m^mm Single channel circuit XBA-XANF Cermet KHTG KSWft ISIB U.K.O. FlGUBE III/5 59 mass media also are reached by the press wire services as indicated by the third flow line. With this introduction and "guided tour" through the first part of the present communica- tions maze, the reader can explore the other flow lines on this typical chart. The "*" on the line between local authorities and the mass media block is used to indicate an occasional personal message from a local official, presented in the newspaper or by "live" or recorded broadcast, to urge the public to take the necessary precautions against loss of life and property. It is readily apparent that extremely compli- cated arrangements are used currently for trans- mitting warnings from the originator to the ultimate user. The system illustrated in figures 1 and 2 of this Report is simpler and more efficient. It utilizes one single main channel from the origi- nator of the warning to the intermediate user and the disseminator, with two backup systems (one between the originator and the intermediate user and mass disseminator, another between the origi- nator and the intermediate user). DISTRIBUTION OF FLASH-FLOOD AND FLOOD WARNINGS The community flash flood problem described in section II demands a local communication system not completely contained in the diagram of figure III/2. To be most effective, flood and flash-flood warnings must be accurate and timely. The time available for appropriate dissemination of warn- ings may range from minutes to days and the re- cipients may be a few people or complete commu- nities. Currently there is no communications system that meets these requirements. The com- munications system sponsored locally for the collection of river and rainfall reports and the dissemination of warnings consists primarily of the telephone, with radio transceivers used as re- quired. However, sirens or loud hailers may be employed in warning the public and may be the same equipment as that used in the tornado and severe storms service. Routine advisories for the local community flood warning representative are distributed by telephone or commercial teletype- writer. Radar echo reports are transmitted via the same channels. The flow of flood warnings (in this case those associated with the usual river flood warning serv- ice) is the responsibility of the appropriate River District Office. A variety of procedures is used to insure receipt of timely warnings by the affected community. Mass dissemination media, such as commercial radio and television stations, are used as much as possible. Increasing use is being made of local and statewide public dissemination tele- typewriter circuits -as they become available. In some instances, as in California and Pennsylvania, State radio systems are employed as necessary. Communication systems of other Federal agencies mutually concerned with flood problems carry warnings to affected areas. However, in many cases commercial telephone facilities are employed to contact the local official or the segment of the public directly concerned. To maintain communication integrity, a wide range of backup systems is employed. These may be public safety radio systems, amateur radio oper- ators, etc. Selection of backup systems is compli- cated by the fact that ESSA interests are second- ary to those of the primary users of the systems. The problem here is that an exclusive (dedicated) backup communication system is not available to ESSA. DISTRIBUTION OF TSUNAMI WARNINGS The two types of tsunami bulletins — advisories and warnings — currently issued by the Coast and Geodetic Survey's Honolulu Observatory, have been described in section II of this Report. The background of the development of the Seismic Sea Wave Warning System and the extremely limited number of personnel involved with the system and, more recently, the extremely large area over which warnings are disseminated, has not made it pos- sible so far for the Coast and Geodetic Survey to issue warnings and advisories directly to the pub- lic. Instead, warnings and advisories are issued to an officially designated agency in each protected area, and that agency is responsible for dissemina- tion to the public in its area of responsibility. In addition, advisory and warning inf ormation is also supplied to various government agencies for pro- tection of installations, for planning purposes, or for scientific research. Primary channels of communication between the Honolulu Observatory and the dissemination agen- cies are supplied by the Defense Communications Agency, the Federal Aviation Agency* the Na- tional Aeronautics and Space Administration, and foreign governmental agencies. In addition, cer- tain agencies with headquarters in Honolulu re- ceive advisories and warnings by telephone. Communication methods for transmissions from the Honolulu Observatory to the various dissemi- nation agencies are shown in the Communication Plan for Seismic Sea Wave Warning System (SSWWS), Fifth Edition, November 1963, pp. 65-98. In Alaska, tsunami messages are relayed first from Civil Defense headquarters to areas in which the danger appears to be greatest. When a tsunami endangers a larger area, the messages are trans- mitted to district or area directors of Civil Defense, as well as to mayors and municipal police depart- ments. Radio and television stations, newspapers, and wire services also are contacted, and assist in warning the general populace. Major police and fire departments in all areas are alerted and they work with district, area, or municipal Civil De- fense personnel. The facilities of the Weather Bureau are employed in carrying warnings to 60 Alaskan weather stations which assist in alerting the general public to the imminent danger of a tsunami. These stations are located at Bethel, St. Paul Island, King Salmon, Cold Bay, Shemya, Anchorage, Cordova, Yakutat, Juneau, and Annette. Although the State of Alaska applies rapid- communication systems and techniques to the dis- semination of tsunami warnings, the frequent oc- currence of earthquakes in the Alaska area often will leave little time for it. Before an official warning becomes technically possible, a local earth- quake can produce a tsunami — and the tsunami can strike coastal communities almost immediately. Many of these will be small and local in their ef- fects ; however, limited tsunamis have done exten- sive damage near their regions of generation. In California, tsunami bulletins are dissemi- nated from the California Disaster Office to coastal cities and counties through several communications systems. The primary method of dissemination is NAWAS. The secondary method is the Depart- ment of Justice teletypewriter network. Other alternate methods are the inter-city law system and the California Disaster Office fire network. That office does not indicate or direct any action to be taken by local jurisdictions. Determination of such action remains the prerogative and responsi- bility of local officials. Various cities and counties have well-developed and comprehensive plans for response to tsunami warnings. In Hawaii, dissemination to the public makes use of all communications facilities available to in- form residents of coastal areas. A series of warn- ing signals is sounded when a tsunami warning is received; these are 1-minute siren blasts at 3-min- ute intervals, repeated at least five times. Assist- ance and advice is given in connection with evacuation of all residents of low-lying coastal areas. Evacuation from danger areas is advisable but voluntary until a state of emergency has been declared; however, upon this declaration, such evacuation is mandatory when directed and en- forced by Civil Defense personnel and police. County police departments are authorized to take necessary steps to prevent sightseers from moving into low coastal areas after a tsunami warning has been issued. Concurrently, the Hawaii State Civil Defense activates its Control Center at Fort Ruger, and issues official statements concerning present or ex- pected conditions to radio station KGMB for broadcasting by all stations on their normal fre- quencies. Such statements are broadcast in the form of numbered Civil Defense Disaster Bul- letins. When information is received by the Di- rector, Civil Defense Agency, that all danger has passed, this information is transmitted to the Deputy Director and to station KGMB and other broadcasting stations for dissemination to the pub- lic. In the event of a tsunami disaster, station KGMB and other broadcasting stations inform the public of all wave conditions and damage. In Oregon, tsunami advisories and warnings are relayed from the State Civil Defense Warning Point to rhe coastal counties over the State police radio and teletypewriter facilities and by com- mercial telephone. Necessary action is deter- mined and taken by county Civil Defense Directors. In Washington, tsunami warnings are dis- seminated by NAWAS to seven Warning Points in addition to the State Warning Point. These Warning Points are responsible for further dis- semination to coastal counties and cities in the State. Methods of communication include police radio, private lines, and commercial telephones. Dissemination of information to wire services, radio, and television for broadcast to the public is controlled by the Washington Department of Civil Defense. Detailed copies of their dissemination plans are submitted by the responsible warning agencies to the Coast and Geodetic Survey for review before the Survey agrees to supply warning information. These dissemination plans are periodically re- viewed, both by the Coast and Geodetic Survey and by the agencies concerned, to determine their continued effectiveness. Communications channels to all dissemination agencies are tested monthly and changes are made as necessary. DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKE WARNINGS No earthquake warnings are prepared, since no method of forecasting their occurrence has been developed to date, and no time is available after their onset for warning of the danger. (The Ex- ecutive Office of the President is informed imme- diately by the Coast and Geodetic Survey when it has been ascertained that a major earthquake has occurred in order that relief measures may be ini- tiated at once.) The Coast and Geodetic Survey Seismology Division, Rockville, Md., receives data from C&GS seismic stations and from those of other agencies by message and by mail. Twice weekly, these data are processed by computer. With a time lag between earthquake occurrence and publication of one to several weeks, depending on receipt of a minimum of five station recordings for a particular earthquake, special mailing cards entitled, "Preliminary Determination of Epi- centers," are prepared. They provide information on date, location, geographical area, depth, magni- tude, standard deviation, and number of stations used in the computation, for each earthquake for which computations were made. The cards are sent to 700 addresses, including observatories, in- stitutions, businesses, schools, and private individuals. A pamphlet, "Earthquake Data Report," con- taining the same data, together with derived dis- tance, azimuth, and residual data, is mailed twice weekly to about 100 individuals and organizations having special need for the supplementary data. 61 The "Seismological Bulletin," containing infor- mation by months on earthquake occurrences, is published in quantities of 500, with a time lag of 12 to 14 months, which is being reduced. It iden- tifies provisional epicenters and provides seismo- gram interpretations. More definitive and endur- ing detailed information on U.S. earthquakes, by years, is published in "United States Earth- quakes," with a 2-year time lag. These annuals are published in quantities of 1,000 to 1,500 for distribution to libraries, schools, and individuals, and for sale. C&GS also publishes pamphlets containing studies of individual earthquakes. SPECIAL NONGOVERNMENT COM- MUNICATIONS FACILITIES The Federal Communications Commission's rules governing the common carriers, prepared by the Common Carrier Bureau, and the FCC rules for safety and special radio services, prepared by the Safety and Special Radio Services Bureau, have incorporated special provisions for emergency operations in these services. These two Bureaus have issued upwards of 5,500,000 station license authorizations for radio station operation. How- ever, a review indicates that in most cases these radio station licenses, except for possibly the ama- teur and citizens' services, are of a specific nature and are not generally adaptable for the issuance of warnings to the general public. In most cases, these stations operate in the VHF or UHF fre- quency spectrum, and receiving equipment is not generally in use by the public. Transmission of severe weather warnings along petroleum and gas pipelines and other facilities of related industries to warn company personnel is made as a matter of good operating practice. This large segment of licensed radio stations, therefore, is not available to warn the general public, except for the amateur and citizens radio services. 1. Emergency Broadcast System The Emergency Broadcast System Plan (app. B-26), prepared by the National Industry Ad- visory Committee, was based upon the require- ments of the White House, the Department of Defense (Office of Civil Defense), the Office of Emergency Planning, and provisions of the FCC rules and regulations. The Emergency Broadcast System provides the President and the Federal Government, as well as State and local governments, with a means of communicating with the general public through nongovernment broadcast stations during the period preceding, during, and following an enemy attack. The system has been specifically designed to provide operational capabilities for local, State, and regional units of the Government to communi- cate with the general public within their respec- tive jurisdictions. This plan provides for using facilities and personnel of the entire nongovern- ment communications industry on a voluntary basis to provide the nation with a functional sys- tem operated by the communications industry under government regulations and in a controlled manner consistent with national security require- ments during an emergency. Participation in the Emergency Broadcast Sys- tem Plan by a broadcast station is solely on a vol- untary basis. National Defense Emergency au- thorizations are issued upon request of the broad- cast station after they have indicated that certain minimum FCC requirements have been met. Only stations holding National Defense Emer- gency authorization will be permitted to remain on the air during a declared national emergency. Appendix D-27 of the Emergency Broadcast Sys- tem Plan lists 2,346 broadcast stations currently participating in the Plan. A study of the EBS State plans submitted to NIAC for review shows that the operational area concept (subdividing the States into several seg- ments) was generally used. A further review of the plans indicates that the basic State networks utilize the commercial FM stations. The pro- graming is transmitted to each operational area on the State FM networks. The programing is then further disseminated into each area, through the use of the local AM broadcast station facilities. The plans of the States of Florida Indiana, Michi- gan, Minnesota, and Illinois are examples of this operational area concept. 2. Amateur Radio It has been the proud tradition of the radio ama- teur fraternity for many years to furnish com- munications and other related assistance to the general public during floods, fires, tornadoes, and other natural disasters. There are approximately 265,000 licensed ama- teurs distributed over the 50 States and the terri- tories. In many cases, the amateur has equipment installed in his home as well as in Ms automobile. The tendency during the past several years has been for most amateurs to upgrade their equipment substantially, both for their home stations and in mobile units. With better equipment and with the latest single side band techniques, the amateur is in an excellent position to render extremely val- uable assistance under emergency conditions. The Weather Bureau has resorted to this special service on many occasions in connection with hur- ricanes and floods, and, in some instances, in con- nection with other severe weather situations. It is currentty estimated that of the 265.000 li- censed amateurs, approximately S0,000 are active at their home station locations. In this active group, it is estimated that there are approximately 15,000 sets installed in vehicles cruising the high- ways and fairly well distributed over most com- munities. All of these units are powered inde- pendently of the commercial power lines and may operate in several frequency bands for local or long-distance communications. 62 The pages of "QST," "CQ," and other radio magazines attest to the valuable assistance given by radio amateurs in all categories of natural and manmade disasters. This reservoir of trained communicators and their associated equipment should continue to be recognized and utilized as a part of every community's disaster plan, with em- phasis on amateur participation in disaster activi- ties in local, county, or State areas. 3. Citizens' Band Facilities A considerable -number of Citizens' Band units are installed in vehicles erasing the highways. The units installed in vehicles are powered inde- pendently of the commercial power lines and can be expected to cover in some depth the centers of population. With the improvement of the Citi- zens' Band equipment and the cooperation of the local Citizens' Band Clubs, this vast pool of li- censed cooperators has given a good account of itself in disasters during the past several years. Several independent committees have spon- sored the use of certain channels for specific uses. For example, a committee has recently chosen channel 9 in the Citizens' Band group of frequen- cies in a cooperative effort to accustom motorists equipped with transmitters to use this channel when in need of assistance on the highways. With the acceptance of this proposal, it is ex- pected that thousands of motorists will be utiliz- ing this channel for assistance, and it will be well monitored in most cases. "Piggybacking" on one of these sponsored channels may be of value in natural disaster warning operations. With their ever-growing communications capa- bilities, the Citizens' Band communicators should continue to be recognized and utilized in every local community's disaster plan where short dis- tance communications are required. If,. Citizens' Radio Service The Citizens' Radio Service has grown to such an extent during the past few years that it is now a common term in our society. The Federal Com- munications Commission has authorized approxi- mately 800,000 stations in what is commonly known as the class D Citizens' Radio Service. The power and frequency limitations generally restrict most of these installations to a 10-mile transmitting radius. However, with a base sta- tion located on top of a 10-story building, this radius may possibly be increased to 20-30 miles. It could be used advantageously, and should be considered for inclusion in local community warn- ing plans for tornadoes, flash floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes. OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE COM- MUNICATIONS FACILITIES 1. Civil Defense Broadcast Station Protection Program Since 1962 the Office of Civil Defense has se- lected 451 AM stations from a total of 658 AM stations planned to be included in its protection program in cooperation with the FCC. These stations were selected to obtain the widest accept- able coverage for presidential and State program- ing, in accordance with the FCC Emergency Broadcast System Plan. The purpose of the pro- gram is to assure that station personnel will be protected and emergency power will be available during emergency conditions and that the maxi- mum number of people would be served. This OCD funding program consists of the following three main parts: a. fallout protection at broadcast stations, to protect station personnel needed to operate the stations ; b. emergency power to enable the stations to continue operation if commercial power is dis- rupted; and c. radio program links and associated equip- ment needed to transmit local, State, and regional programing from the government emergency operations centers through EBS stations for dis- semination to the public. 2. National Warning System (NAWAS) NAWAS (see figure HI/6) is a communica- tions system of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) . It consists of full-period, private-line voice cir- cuits leased from the telephone companies. NAWAS is a hot line, in operation 24 hours per day, and is designed specifically for simultaneous issuance of attack warnings on a nationwide basis to all stations connected to the System. Civil De- fense warnings originate from the three OCD Warning Centers : ( 1 ) the National Warning Cen- ter, located at the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD) Headquarters, (2) Na- tional Two Warning Center located at the OCD Region Five Headquarters, and (3) National Three Warning Center, located at the special fa- cility near Washington, D.C. National Warning Centers Nos. 2 and 3 are currently located in blast- and fallout-protected facilities and the National Warning Center will move into a simi- larly protected facility in early 1966. Basically NAWAS consists of: (1) a control circuit to provide a means for intercommunica- tion of tactical operational information between Warning Centers, and to OCD Headquarters and Regions, and (2) a warning circuit to provide a network that will allow the OCD Warning Cen- ters to disseminate emergency information to the 993 Warning Points, alternates, and extensions. These are located in police stations, sheriffs' offices, fire departments, and Civil Defense offices, and 748 of them are manned around the clock. The System currently goes into 755 communities. All 993 points on the System can be warned simultaneously in less than 1 minute by any of the three OCD Warning Centers. When priority traffic is not being transmitted on the nationwide System, the circuit can be divided into individual State systems by simply depressing a foot switch 63 OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM (NAWAS) Q OCD Warning Centers * OCD Regional Offices o State Warning Points • Warning Points JUNE 1965 OCD Chart-8 Figure III/6 at the State Warning Point, thus providing for an intrastate system. As of July 1965, the Weather Bureau had access to NAWAS in 29 States at the following locations : Montgomery, Ala. Phoenix, Ariz. Little Rock, Ark. Denver, Colo. Windsor Locks, Conn. Miami, Fla. Atlanta, Ga. Des Moines, Iowa Chicago, 111. Topeka, Kans. Louisville, Ky. New Orleans, La. Boston, Mass. Portland, Maine Jackson, Miss. Columbia, Mo. Lincoln, Nebr. Reno, Nev. Albuquerque, N. Mex Raleigh, N.C. Bismarck, N. Dak. Oklahoma City, Okla Columbia, S.C. Sioux Falls, S. Dak. Nashville, Tenn. Austin, Tex. Salt Lake City, Utah Burlington, Vt. Cheyenne, Wyo. Further expansion of access by 20 more Weather Bureau stations to the OCD NAWAS in as many States has recently been decided upon. OCD pays 100 percent of the NAWAS commu- nications costs for the 685 Warning Points and the 46 alternates, and 50 percent of the NAWAS communications costs for the 262 extensions. State and local governments pay for the other 50 64 percent of the cost for extensions. The 29 Weather Bureau stations are considered as NAWAS Warn- ing Points. The State portion of the NAWAS, under State direction, provides the communications for the rapid relay of OCD warning and supplemental information from the Warning Points to all po- litical jurisdictions within the State. The commu- nications used are radio, telephone, teletype- writers, bells, and lights, or a combination of these. Under its contributions program, OCD pays 50 percent of the communications costs for the State portion of the System if the System is used pri- marily for Civil Defense communications pur- poses. If not, OCD pays half of the standby sustaining cost for the System, which amounts to about 25 percent of the total communications costs. Warning at the community level is accomplished by outdoor and indoor warning systems. Outdoor warning systems have been established in almost 1,900 communities, 624 of which have 25,000 popu- lation or more. Three hundred and thirty-two communities with population greater than 25,000 have no outdoor Civil Defense warning sirens. Approximately 10,000 outdoor warning devices, principally sirens, have been installed. Approxi- mately 26 percent of the urban area of the United States and 36 million people are served by outdoor warning devices. Under its contribution program, OCD pays half of the cost for their procurement, installation, and maintenance. At the present time very few indoor warning systems are in use. However, it should be noted that these statistics pertain only to Civil Defense outdoor and indoor warning systems that have been procured with OCD financial assistance. There are undoubtedly many communities that make use of their existing police and fire sirens and bells as well as loud nailers mounted on vehicles and aircraft to warn of approaching natural hazards. a. Effectiveness and limitations of OCD warn- ing system, The NAWAS is very effective and efficient for disseminating warning information over the Fed- eral portions of the System. Only 15 to 30 sec- onds are needed to communicate a warning message to the 993 points on the System. How- ever, the dissemination from these points to the local political jurisdictions is in need of improve- ment. Paragraph c. of this section indicates pos- sible expansion of existing systems to improve the speed and effectiveness of warning. A continuing study has been underway by OCD to determine the feasibility of utilizing a National Emergency Alarm Repeater (NEAR) through the power networks and radio facilities, including AM and low frequency propagation, to provide in- dividual home alerting and warning. In the past, predominant emphasis was placed on NEAR be- cause of the CONELRAD restrictions and the high cost of radio warning receivers. However, with the discontinuance of CONELRAD in May 1963, and with the reduction of radio component prices, OCD increased its studies on the use of radio warning systems. The studies indicate that radio transmitter costs would be considerably lower than the cost required for the installation of NEAR converters. Further, radio receivers at approximately the same cost as. NEAR receivers have greater versatility than NEAR receivers since the radio receiver is also capable of provid- ing for voice communications instead of just an alerting signal. OCD has completed the systems evaluation of NEAR, but a decision on the deployment of NEAR will be delayed until the engineering studies on radio warning are completed. How- ever, it is expected that NEAR will generally be reserved for those areas which cannot generally be covered by radio. OCD's research, thus far, in- dicates that radio systems show the greatest prom- ise for a nationwide indoor warning system, and research and development will continue. OCD's present plans are to develop and deploy a system of low-frequency transmitters at its headquarters and at its eight regional offices. This system will be used for: (1) direction and control purposes in conjunction with State and local governments, and (2) as a radio backup to NAWAS. Although receivers may be installed in selected radio stations of the Emergency Broadcast System, OCD does not plan to finance the procurement of home re- ceiver units. b. Current use of OCD communications sys- tems for dissemination of natural disaster warnings NAWAS and outdoor warning systems are de- signed primarily for the dissemination of attack warning information. However, since 1958 OCD has authorized and encouraged the use of these systems for dissemination of natural disaster ad- visories and warnings. For example : (i) OCD has authorized, funded, and arranged for the installation of NAWAS in 29 Weather Bureau offices ; and (ii) outdoor warning sirens are used in many communities to warn of approaching natural haz- ards when the action to be taken is the same as the attack warning, i.e., sounding the "take cover" signal for an approaching tornado or sounding the "alert" signal for an approaching flood, tsunami, hurricane, blizzard, etc. (The use of the out- door warning sirens in conjunction with the May 6, 1965, Minneapolis-St. Paul tornado is credited with saving the lives of hundreds of people. How- ever, it must be recognized that use of the outdoor warning sirens for natural disaster warning pur- poses is a local option, because the siren systems are locally operated. Although it appears to be stand- ard procedure to use the outdoor Civil Defense sirens for severe weather warnings in "Tornado Alley," it is not accepted procedure in all com- munities in States frequently affected by hurri- canes, and in coastal areas affected by tsunamis. c. Potential further expansion of NAWAS and outdoor loarning siren systems for combined attack and weather warning purposes A comprehensive State-by-State analysis was made of: (1) the NAWAS, (2) the outdoor Civil Defense warning sirens, and (3) the locations of the Weather Bureau stations. The analysis shows that although direct warn- ing service can be provided to urban areas by the existing system, there are many sizeable communi- ties without this direct service. To improve over- all warning capability, NAWAS and the outdoor warning siren system can be extended as follows for maximum use : ( 1 ) establish two-way NAWAS drops at all ad- ditional Weather Bureau stations with 24-hour operations ; (2) establish two-way NAWAS drops in all cities with population exceeding 10,000 that have local or county government facilities operating around the clock ; and (3) establish NAWAS receive-only extensions in communities with population of 2,500 to 10,000. These expansions would add 1,300 send-receive warning points and upwards of 4,000 receive-only extensions to NAWAS. The telephone company 65 advises that such expansion is within the technical capacity of the system. d. Conditions of control For overall management and operational con- trol, the following conditions would be required by OCD for the joint use of NAWAS for attack and natural disaster warning purposes: (1) during periods of increased defense readi- ness and for issuance of attack warning informa- tion, OCD must have undisputed priority use of the System ; (2) during periods of natural disaster occur- rences, the System can be used by the Weather Bu- reau and the Coast and Geodetic Survey : ( i ) on a national basis ; (ii) on an OCD Warning Center area basis (OCD regions 6, 7, and 8; OCD regions 3, 4, and 5 ; OCD regions 1 and 2) . (iii) on an OCD Regional basis; and (iv) on an individual State basis ; (3) use of the System would be limited to nat- ural disaster emergency information and warning purposes ; (4) a primary Weather Bureau office in each State would be assigned the responsibility to co- ordinate and control use of the System for weather warning purposes ; (5) the primary Weather Bureau station in each State would be the central point of coordina- tion for developing the statewide plan for dis- semination of weather warnings ; and the plan, as it relates to the use of NAWAS and Civil Defense personnel, must be approved by the State Civil Defense Director or the State Governor; (6) arrangements or agreements for dissemi- nation of weather warnings by local government should be established with the Mayor or the City Council rather than with the local Civil Defense Director personally (in many instances the local Civil Defense Director might be on travel and unavailable at a crucial time) ; (7) funding for the proposed increase in NAWAS would be worked out jointly by OCD, the Weather Bureau, and other Federal agencies planning to use the System for natural disaster warning purposes; OCD has neither programmed the funds for this proposed expansion for dissemi- nation of natural disaster warnings nor does legis- lative authority exist for such expansion, since OCD's authority is for attack warning purposes only; and (8) insofar as possible, use of outdoor warning sirens for natural disaster warnings should be co- ordinated on a nationwide basis; the trend of thought within OCD is for a single attack-warn- ing signal on all public warning devices; the sig- nal (currently called the "take cover" signal) would be redesignated as the "attack warning" signal ; it would comprise a 3- to 5-minute wailing tone on sirens or a series of short blasts on horns or other devices, repeated as deemed necessary ; the attack warning signal would mean that "the Na- tion is under attack and protection action should be taken"; the present "alert" signal, which is a 3- to 5-minute steady tone, would be redesignated as the "attention signal" and it would mean "listen for essential emergency information"; and the at- tention signal could be used by local governments for natural disaster warnings. 3. National C omrrmnications System No. 1 (NA- COM 1) The NACOM 1 is a leased teletypewriter system with alternate secondary-use telephone facilities. It serves to connect the National Headquarters, Regional Headquarters, the special facility, and State Civil Defense Offices. Its major function is to furnish the means of coordination for emer- gency government. The System also has inter- connection facilities with other government, mili- tary, and commercial systems. In addition, it serves to connect with the emergency relocation sites of selected Federal Government agencies. Certain portions of this System are capable of ac- cepting Kineplex data (3,000 bits per second or approximately 4,000 w.p.m.) and telephone trans- missions. The national-regional portion of this facility utilizes the trunk circuits of the CONUS. AUTOVON, and SCAN Systems. Separate voice and teletypewriter circuits are used for this portion. The regional -State portion utilizes full- period (24-hour) private line circuits. The entire teletypewriter complex is a full duplex, 100-w.p.m. system. Each Region has an individual 28 auto- matic send/receive and a 28 receive-only teletype- writer for each circuit, thus permitting simultane- ous traffic to and from each point in the System on either a broadcast or an individual basis. Each regional communications center is equipped with the miscellaneous allied accessories such as tape factories, transmission gates, etc. The entire Sys- tem is utilized daily for both emergency and ad- ministrative traffic. Currently there are three channels between head- quarters and each Regional Office and a single channel from each regional headquarters to each of their States. The entire NACOM 1 System is scheduled to become a part of the National Com- munications System (NCS) ; and during periods of emergency there will be 11 channels available between headquarters and each Regional Office. 4. National Communications System No. 2 {NACOM 2) NACOM 2 is a "radio backup" svstem to NACOM 1. NACOM 1 has voice and teletype- writer capability, and similarly NACOM 2 has voice and radio-teletypewriter capability- as well as CW. At the present time NACOM 2 is fully opera- tional at the special facility, at the 8 Civil Defense Regional Offices, in 24 of the States, in Puerto Rico, and in the Canal Zone. Extension of NACOM 2 to the other 26 States is planned for fiscal year 1966. 66 NACOM 2 is a high-frequency radio network utilizing modern voice transmission and radio- teletypewriter techniques. Each Regional Office and the special facility is equipped with 2.5 kw transmitters, and the States have 0.5 kw trans- mitters. The present frequencies assigned to NACOM 2 by the Interdepartment Radio Advis- ory Committee (IRAC) are shared with other Federal, civilian, and military agencies and with Canada. Thus, interference is a possibility on NACOM 2. There is a limiting factor to the routine and/or administrative use of NACOM 2 since it was authorized for use only in an emer- gency or when NACOM 1 is inoperative. 67 SECTION IV. DETECTION AND PROCESSING PROBLEMS DETECTION PROBLEMS Introduction Measurements or observations of the various meteorological, hydrological, other geophysical, and astrophysical parameters are made by both instrumental and noninstrumental means. They serve two purposes in the warning system. First, they are necessary for analysis of conditions ante- cedent to the potential disaster. As such, they are an input to the method for "forecasting" the dis- aster. Second, and this is particularly true of ob- servations by people, they serve as the direct moti- vation for the warning itself, e.g., a person who sees a tornado reports it, and others are warned of its approach. With regard to the first purpose, measurements must be made with sufficient frequency and spatial density to define the parameters necessary to the forecast procedure. With regard to the second, they must be timely (i.e., "fresh"). The goal is to detect the natural hazard that has been forecast as soon as it develops and to provide immediate input into the warning dissemination system. The frequency and spatial density of observa- tions must be related to the size of an area affected by the natural hazards and the likelihood of its occurring. It is the accepted practice to establish networks of observation stations, each being re- lated to its neighbor, and all forming a coordi- nated system for data acquisition. Basic net- works are already functioning in the Environ- mental Science Services Administration in vary- ing stages of adequacy. METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGI- CAL OBSERVATIONS In general, the existing basic networks of sur- face and aviation stations serve fairly well as the source of surface data for forecasting. How- ever, it should be noted that there has been a sig- nificant attrition of these networks over the past few years. For example, in many river basins, badly needed 6-hourly precipitation observations of storm rainfall have been dropped. Existing resources and facilities have not provided a satis- factory replacement for these high-quality ob- servations. With regard to observations for warning of natural hazards that exist, observer "corps" need to be developed in a large number of areas. The river and flood forecasting service requires continuing synoptic information on the state of the hydrologic cycle in order to prepare forecasts of river and flood conditions. The Weather Bu- reau's national surface, upper air, radar, and satel- lite observation systems provide important input to the forecasting process. In addition to the na- tional surface synoptic meteorological network, special river and rainfall reporting networks are required to provide detailed basic data on individ- ual river basins. A further localization of the river and rainfall reporting networks is needed for the small drainage areas requiring flash-flood warnings. Surface Observations Surface observations, as applied to the measure- ment of antecedent and background conditions for forecasting, are of three main types : a. Synoptic observations. — These are general- purpose weather measurements made continuously over much of the earth's surface at 3- and 6-hourly intervals. The United States operates about 620 stations making such measurements. b. Aviation observations. — These are hourly and special measurements, especially to facilitate air- craft landing and takeoff operations. Whenever these are made, they are usually supplementary to the synoptic observations. The United States op- erates about 830 stations making such measure- ments. c. Hydrologic observations. — This category in- cludes the tide observations necessary for storm- surge forecasts and warnings and the river and rainfall reporting networks required for the river and flood forecasting service. a. River and Rainfall Observations This network contains about 4,500 stations and depends primarily upon lay observers such as the housewife, farmer, and businessman — public- spirited individuals — to read river and rain gages and report to a River District Office by telephone. In many areas, the density and frequency of ob- servations are inadequate and should be improved to meet the increasing demand for localized fore- casts and warnings. These networks should be automated and provided with a highly reliable communications system. Flash-flood warning net- works are specialized observation networks tailored for each problem area. Relatively few flash-fiood-prone areas in the United States have the minimum required reporting network. Local participation in these networks must be encour- aged. 78&-8S2 O— m b. Voluntary Observer Corps Most of the observations required for warnings are made at synoptic and aviation stations ; but if all potential weather hazards are to be detected at the instant of their development, the synoptic and aviation networks must be supplemented by "corps" of special observers, organized and trained to provide visual input to the warning system, whether or not they have been alerted in advance by a forecast. Such corps already exist in many communities. Many of the river and rainfall ob- servers mentioned in the preceding paragraph are in this category. These voluntary observers are visited and in- structed in the identification of tornadoes and other severe weather and are provided with an unlisted telephone number to be used in reporting to the responsible Weather Bureau Office. In recent years, time and travel funds for such visits have been inadequate. Instead of the an- nual visits formerly made, the voluntary severe weather observers who have previously been re- cruited are now queried by letter and requested to complete and return a postcard indicating their availability and willingness to continue in the program. If no tornadoes, flash floods, or other severe weather hazards occur during extended periods of time, the interest of such voluntary observers grad- ually diminishes. In many areas, the voluntary observing corps now have decreased to the point where they consist almost entirely of State and local police, firemen, etc. The contributions of these officials have been outstanding, but an ade- quate network of fixed reporting locations throughout an area is needed for complete cover- age. Otherwise, tornadoes may not be reported for a matter of several minutes — precious minutes in connection with advance warning. Personal visits to voluntary observers, both be- fore and during the seasons of severe weather, are highly desirable in order to develop and maintain their cooperation and enthusiasm, particularly during extended periods without severe weather. A somewhat similar program of voluntary re- porting has been organized to fill in the gaps in the hurricane reporting network along coastal areas. This is known as the Cooperative Hurri- cane Reporting Network (CHURN), with par- ticipation by Coast Guard Stations and by inter- ested private citizens or public officials (see fig. IV/1). Wind measuring equipment is in- stalled at such locations, and the measurements, together with information on tides and storm surges, are telephoned to the nearest Weather Bureau Office during stormy weather. Upper- Air Observations These are observations of (a) the wind speed and direction and/or (b) the temperature, humid- ity, and pressure in the free atmosphere from the surface) of the earth to heights as great as 100,000 feet. These measurements are made with small balloons that carry scientific instruments and/or radar reflecting equipment. The path of the bal- loons as they rise through the air is tracked, either electronically or optically, to determine the winds aloft. The temperature, humidity and pressure data are transmitted to the ground station by radio. These measurements are absolutely essential to all weather forecasting. Tornadoes, severe thun- derstorms, and hail are generated in unstable air masses. The only way to determine when condi- tions are ripe for such storms is by means of upper- air measurements. Hurricanes are steered by the winds aloft, much as a swirling eddy in a rivulet may be carried along by the stream itself. But in many areas upper-air observation stations are so far apart that their data are inadequate to portray accurately the thermodynamic and kinematic con- ditions that prevail. Over much of the region where hurricanes occur, there is only ocean; no land exists from which weather balloons can be released to measure the air currents that steer the hurricanes. Over the past 10 years, improvements in forecasting hurri- cane tracks has not progressed at as fast a rate as is possible, because the gathering of upper-air weather data has not been intensified to keep pace with improved computer and forecast technology. As a matter of fact, the network in the hurricane area has in many respects been degraded, as for example, by the lack of data over Cuba and by the closing of some military weather stations in the Antilles. If hurricane forecasting is to im- prove substantially, there must be more and better input of oceanic upper-air data to the system. As a partial solution to this problem, the mili- tary began a very essential program of aerial re- connaissance of hurricanes following weather reconnaissance flight experience during World War II. These "hurricane hunter' 5 planes pro- vide weather measurements from hurricanes at sea by penetrating to their centers — extremely valuable weather data not obtainable by any other means. This program of aerial hurricane reconnais- sance is currently carried out by the Department of Defense in cooperation with the Weather Bu- reau. It is augmented by research reconnaissance flights of the Weather Bureau's Research Flight Facility. The special planes used are fully instru- mented, including Doppler radar and dropsonde equipment for measuring winds, pressures, tem- peratures, and humidities around the peripherv of the hurricane and within the core itself. Any diminution in the capabilities of this program would seriously reduce the effectiveness of the hurricane warning program. The upper-air network is too sparse to provide understanding of conditions conducive to forest fires. At present, in many parts of the country, it is not possible to define adequately those upper-air circulations that lead to pronounced drying of the forest cover. Several new upper-air stations need 70 COOPERATIVE HURRICANE REPORTING NETWORK a FIRST ORDER WEATHER BUREAU • CHURN SITES PORTLAND a» • BOSTON PROVIDENCE BRIDGEPORT A 9m NEW YORK a L » A NANTUCKET • A BLOCK ISLAND PHILADELPHIA WILMINGTON a BALTIMORE A a ATLANTIC CITY WASHINGTON * WILMINGTON a • ' • CAPE HENRY • A NORFOLK • . CAPE HATTERAS LAKE CHARLES^ TALLAHASSEE V JACKSONVILLE MOBILE A \ DAYTONA BEACH NEW •.* A " ..V* •. . ORLEANS^ PENSACOLA * • OUSTON . /• ' . # \ APPALACHICOLA TAMPA *. A •/GALVESTON BOOTHEV.LLE . • FORT MEYERS • • CORPUS CHRISTI • • A PALM • BEACH • a MIAMI • • • * RPnWNWII 1 P KEY WES1 • A» # FlGUEE IV/1 71 to be installed in forested lands to improve the forecasts of weather situations that create fire hazards. Radar Observations Radar is the most valuable single tool for warn- ing of existing severe weather. Radar is not a forecasting device ; but with its aid meteorologists can see where the weather is, observe the direction and speed of its movement, and make some judg- ments as to its severity. Radar alone will not pre- dict whether a storm will intensify or die. This must be judged by professional meteorologists. Partial radar coverage of the coastline of the United States provides valuable information on approaching hurricanes and severe coastal storms. But some parts of the coast are protected only by radars over 20 years old (Nantucket and Puerto Rico), and many areas have no protection at all (northern New England, most of the west coast, Alaska, and Hawaii) . For tornado warnings, there is the nucleus of a covering radar network over the eastern half of the conterminous 48 States. Within this nucleus, there are many gaps in which coverage is non- existent or is only partially provided by low- powered, inadequate radars of World War II sur- plus vintage. Also, there are many areas in the northeastern United States that the network has not reached. For example, there is no adequate radar coverage of North or South Dakota, Ne- braska, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine. There is only one radar each in Minnesota and Michigan. Yet tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms occur annually in all of these States. It is most important to note, however, that radar coverage described above is totally inadequate with rspect to the western half of the 48 conterminuous States where floods, thunderstorms, blizzards and hailstorms annually cause considerable loss of life and property damage, nor is there any radar pro- tection for Hawaii and Alaska. Radar installed for the detection and warning of thunderstorms will also be of great value in the forest fire problem. It has been demonstrated on many occasions that radar can identify storms which may produce lightning and result in a fire. On the basis of observations made by the radar located on Point Six Mountain near Missoula, Montana, the Forest Service has dispatched fire crews before any fire had been reported. This radar was installed and is maintained and oper- ated under a cooperative arrangement between the Weather Bureau and the Forest Service. The number of weather radar stations should be increased in phases until complete national cover- age is achieved. This national weather radar cov- erage will also provide important input into the National Air Traffic Control System and facilitate the safe and efficient conduct of aviation opera- tions. From the standpoint of weather disaster warn- ings, it would be desirable to install powerful and up-to-date radars at every Weather Bureau office. From an economical standpoint this is not practi- cable. Radars are expensive, and each installa- tion requires a staff of at least seven employees to use and maintain the equipment on a 24-hour basis. The operators of large weather radars main- tain a "watch" on weather developments which may affect those areas without a radar installation. They prepare and transmit hourly radar sum- maries over the Weather Bureau's internal RAWARC teletypewriter system (See fig. IV/2). These summaries are consolidated into severe- weather charts for larger areas, and these charts in turn are transmitted over weather facsimile circuits. As the seriousness and urgency of a situation increases, verbal descriptions are conveyed by tele- phone directly from the radar operator to the meteorologist responsible for the warnings. This is time-consuming, both on the part of the radar operator and on the part of the Meteorologist-in- Charge who must receive, digest, and utilize the information. When multiple echoes exist, the radar operator gives primary attention to the most intense radar echo areas. This can operate to the detriment of Weather Bureau offices in other areas where echoes may not be as intense or may have diminished for a time only to increase later. For example, during the Palm Sunday tornadoes of April 11, 1965, the Chicago radar operator, concentrating on scanning the much stronger echo areas in the Wyatt-Dunlap- Elkhart area, could not also give sufficient atten- tion to the echoes near Grand Rapids. Fortu- nately, the Grand Rapids staff — on the basis of available Chicago radar information plus limited Muskegon radar reports and other information — recognized the seriousness of the situation and is- sued a forecast for "severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds" an hour and a half before the tornado itself developed. This forecast was updated at 5 :50 p.m. to include "a tornado or two." The Michigan State Police have indicated that the forecast which included the damaging wind statement was especially effective and accurate. Radarscope pictures now can be transmitted di- rectly to any number of repeaterscopes at remote locations by means of ordinary telephone lines. Further design, development, and testing at the National Severe Storms Laboratory indicates very promising results for transmission and receipt of radarscope "pictures," using a digitized, pictorial display. This new equipment is entirely com- patible with the very few pieces of slow-scan equip- ment which have already been installed. The installation of such equipment at each Weather Bureau office, and the eventual availabil- ity for connection to such radarscope repeaters in other large metropolitan areas in which there is 72 Figure IV/2 no Weather Bureau office, will aid materially in providing essential, timely, and completely up- dated information, minute by minute. It will en- able Weather Bureau meteorologists to provide radio and television with a continuing descrip- tion of the development and path of all severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. As good as radar is, it needs to be made better. From radar come indications of storm intensity, height, and speed of movement. From the occa- sional appearance of certain radar echo shapes, the meteorologist may infer that a particular echo has a tornado or hail associated with it. But there is, at present, no positive "signature" of a tornado on a radar screen. However, recent developments in radar technology point to the distinct possibility of being able to develop supplementary equipment that could be added to weather radars to provide a capability for measuring the wind speed within an echo by the Doppler principle. Such a device is badly needed for positive tornado identification and for warning of strong winds, whether tornado- associated or not. Radar observations can also be very useful in improving the flood warning service. To do a bet- ter job in flood forecasting, reports of the total amount of rainfall that has fallen in the various critical basins are needed. These reports should be available continuously, without dependence on communications facilities that may be disrupted by storms, and preferably without dependence on volunteer observers who may not be available dur- ing a critical period. Some progress has been made in learning how to measure rainfall by radar, but more research is needed to make radar rainfall reports objective rather than subjective and to develop forecast tech- niques for preparing flash-flood warnings directly from radar data. Meteorological Satellites The meteorological satellite has brought a vast increase in our ability to observe cloud formations over the earth's surface; its future promises the observation of many other weather parameters. But the satellite, like radar, is not a forecasting tool ; it is an observing tool. From the configura- tions of clouds that the satellite sees, hurricanes and many other severe storms can be identified. And the satellite has, on innumerable occasions, demonstrated its value as a device for alerting meteorologists to the existence of storms. Research should be continued to increase the value of meteorological satellite data in the nu- merous meteorological activities for which this device has potential value. Assessment of the snow cover of drainage basins by satellite observa- tion as an index of flood potential is an example. 73 It is believed that the present national plan for the TIROS Operational Satellite System (TOSS) will cover adequately the requirement for weather satellite coverage of the earth, when consummated. SEISMOLOGICAL AND TIDE OBSERVATIONS The principal problems in data acquisition as related to the Seismic Sea Wave Warning System are in communications and basic equipment. Frequently, data requests from Honolulu Ob- servatory and messages carrying data to Honolulu Observatory are delayed up to several hours be- cause of overcrowded circuits or mishandling by communications personnel. Occasionally, the messages are delayed by destruction of communi- cation facilities. The long, frequently round- about, paths the messages must travel often require manual relays which add to the delay. In addition, tide observers at several stations must travel considerable distances from their offices to check their gages. Remote-recording apparatus is being installed at tide stations, with readout locations selected for proximity to communications facilities. The remoting systems being installed are compatible with telemetering equipment so that, as funds and communication channels become available, it will be possible to telemeter basic tide data to regional collection points which have rapid communica- tion links to Honolulu Observatory. Current plans call for limited telemetering of tidal data to the headquarters of the regional tsunami warn- ing systems being installed in Alaska. Telemetering of tidal data to regional collection points or to Honolulu Observatory would aid in the solution of an additional problem. Some of the tide stations, particularly those operated co- operatively by the military, have a high rate of personnel turnover. It is not always possible to give new tide observers prompt instructions in their duties, particularly at some of the more re- mote stations. Consequently erroneous tidal data are received occasionally at Honolulu for use as the basis for a decision to issue or not to issue a warning. It would be considerably easier to main- tain competent observers at regional collection points, thus increasing a flow of accurate tidal data to the System. An ideal warning system would provide for tele- metering of all necessary basic seismic and tidal data to the System headquarters. This would, however, involve considerable cost for full-time personnel. A deep-sea tide recorder is the most needed piece of equipment still awaiting development. Such a recorder would enable the warning system to close the gaps in the existing data-gathering sys- tem and would also provide essential data needed for basic research in tsunami forecasting. The Coast and Geodetic Survey has been working on the development of such a recorder, with limited success to date. The major damage to coastal installations of the eastern United States is caused by tides and wind- driven water. Frequent and up-to-the-minute tide measurements must be available in Weather Bureau offices so that warnings may include in- formation on current and anticipated tides and storm surges. The equipment in many coastal Weather Bureau offices includes telemetered tide recorders connected to nearby C&GS tide gages. More of them are needed, especially along the gulf and the east coast. EARTHQUAKES It is not possible at this time to state with any certainty what instruments will have to be devel- oped to provide data for earthquake prediction. Equipment requirements for basic research on earthquake prediction are described in "Earth- quake Prediction: A Proposal for a Ten-Year Program of Research," prepared by the Ad Hoc Panel on Earthquake Prediction for the Office of Science and Technology. DATA PROCESSING PROBLEMS Introduction Manual processing of all the basic data essential for accurate and consistent forecasts and warnings would be impossible on a realtime basis. Opera- tional use of computers for this purpose began ten years ae*o and has expanded steadily as computer capabilities have increased and as more refined mathematical models of the physical and dvnami- cal processes of the atmosphere have been devel- oped. Consistency and accuracy of forecasts and warnings has also increased with each refinement of the operational computer programs. Meteorological and Htdrological Data The operational and developmental uses of com- puters by the various facilities of the Weather Bureau are outlined in the following paragraphs. World Meteorological Center, Shetland, Md. At Suitland (a suburb of Washington. D.C.) the Weather Bureau operates one of the three World Meteorological Centers (WMC) designated bv the World Meteorological Organization. Another Center is in Moscow, and the third will be estab- lished at Melbourne, Australia. All available surface and upper-air weather ob- servations from the Northern Hemisphere, and certain data from the Southern Hemisphere are re- ceived every 12 hours. A complete collection of ob- servations from the United States and adjacent areas, as well as a sparser collection of observa- tions from other parts of the Northern Hemi- sphere, is received at the intermediate 6-hourly period. 74 The processed output from the WMC at Suit- land is in the form of 330 facsimile charts every 24 hours. These portray the present state of the weather on a hemispheric basis for several levels of the atmosphere, as well as forecast conditions for periods up to 72 hours in advance. Teletypewriter transmissions are also made in alpha-numeric form. A set of forecast weather charts (in much less detail) for the following 6 days is issued three times a week by facsimile. The processed material is used by the Weather Bureau's regional and area forecast centers in the the preparation of forecasts and warnings for their respective areas. The same basic material is also used by military meteorological services as well as by airlines and numerous other civil government and private groups. The WMC at Suitland presently uses 340 hours of computer time a month for operational proc- essing. It is anticipated that this will expand to about 550 hours by 1970. As the flow of satel- lite information increases, it is possible that satu- ration of even the new computer facilities (a CDC-6600 is being installed) could be reached by 1970. Among the additional forecast and processing requirements to be met by use of the computer during the next few years are : 1. nationwide radar analysis; 2. clear-air turbulence forecasts ; 3. high-altitude supersonsic transport forecasts ; 4. nationwide aviation terminal forcasts; and 5. international aviation forecasts. National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla. At Miami, Fla., the Weather Bureau operates a combined National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Tropical Analysis Center (TAC), as well as the National Hurricane Research Laboratory (NHRL) and the Research Flight Facility (RFF). The first three are colocated in quarters at the University of Miami. The RFF is head- quartered at the Miami International Airport. The Weather Bureau purchases computer time from the University of Miami (about 50 hours a month each on an IBM-7040 and an IBM-1401) primarily for the use of the NHRL. The com- puter is used operationally by the NHC only dur- ing the hurricane season. Short, statistical-type programs are used in forecasting hurricane motion and tracks. Additional operational programs are being developed and during the next 5 years are expected to include : 1. more precise hurricane tracking ; 2. sea and swell forecasts, and cloud and pre- cipitation forecasts; 3. surface and upper-level wind, temperature, and weather analyses and forecasts over tropical areas (both hemispheres) ; and 4. tropical area aviation forecasts. All of the above provide essential basic input for the preparation of more precise and timely hurricane forecasts and warnings. Weather Bureau Office, Honolulu, Hawaii In Honolulu, the Weather Bureau operates an office which prepares forecasts and warnings for the Pacific area. The Weather Bureau office, the U.S. Navy Fleet Weather Central at Pearl Har- bor, and the U.S. Air Force Kunia Forecast Center have been cooperating in developing opera- tional computer techniques, using the Navy's CDC-3100 computer and the Air Force computer facilities. In addition, the Weather Bureau makes limited use of the IBM-7040 computer at the University of Hawaii. Operational programs to be developed during the next 5 years include additional surface and upper-level analyses and prognoses for the tropi- cal Pacific in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These will be of considerable value in increasing both the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings of hurricanes and other severe storms for the Hawaiian Islands and Hono- lulu's assigned ocean areas. Severe Local Storm Forecast Center and River Forecast Center, Kansas City, Mo. In Kansas City, the Weather Bureau Severe Local Storm (SELS) Forecast Center and the River Forecast Center (RFC) jointly use an IBM-1620 computer, soon to be replaced by a CDC-3100 computer. SELS uses the computer operationally to process incoming data and eval- uate tornado potential. (Further details are given under "Tornadoes and Severe Thunder- storms" in sec. II.) River Forecast Centers The services provided by the Weather Bureau's River Forecast Centers, where experts prepare river and flood forecasts, are not available in all parts of the United States. Approximately one- fourth of the Nation still needs such service. These areas, which are now receiving only a basic forecast service, include the lower Mississippi, the Great Basin, and portions of the Atlantic Coast drainage. With the growing public concern over water shortages as well as floods, there has been an in- creasing demand for more and different kinds of hydrologic forecasts. The River Forecast Cen- ters will be able to keep pace with this demand only if existing digital computer technology can be utilized to the fullest extent in the forecasting process. Present flash-flood forecasting methods are not adequate. New hydrologic models must be de- signed to provide timely and accurate warnings over a wider combination of hydrometeorological, physical, and socio-economic conditions. Further, our changing environment includes man's modi- fication and alteration of the rivers and of the 75 flood plains in particular. Prediction techniques must incorporate these effects if forecasts are to be timely and accurate. Use of the digital com- puter in river and flood forecasting promises a breakthrough in the never-ending search for more adequate prediction techniques. As mentioned previously, the RFC at Kansas City will have a CDC-3100 computer available for use in forecast- ing by the fall of 1965. The St. Louis RFC will be combined with the Kansas City RFC at about the same time, giving computer forecast capa- bility for most of the north-central United States. The Fort Worth, Sacramento, and Washington RFC's all have IBM-1620 computers. However, all of the computers mentioned have only mini- mum memories, which places severe limitations on their application to the entire forecast problem. The RFC in Portland, Oreg., has the use of an IBM-1920 which has adequate capabilities for RFC forecasting operations. This computer is owned by the Army Corps of Engineers. U.S. Army Coastal Engineering Research Center The newly established U.S. Army Coastal En- gineering Research Center (CERC), formerly known as the Beach Erosion Board, of the Army Corps of Engineers has as its primary function basic research and development related to coastal engineering in keeping with the expanded national oceanographic program. Considerable work has been accomplished, in coordination with the Weather Bureau, in development of storm surge predictions on the open coast and in certain estuaries. This work was undertaken and com- pleted in response to the congressional authoriza- tion to investigate the hurricane problem in the Atlantic and gulf coast regions. Basic to the con- tinuing program of the CERC are studies of the continuing coastal processes induced by normal and abnormal forces. An additional coordinated study with the U.S. Weather Bureau provides for improvement of coastal storm warnings. In another project related to the problem of storm tides and their damaging effects, the Corps of Engineers is participating with the Depart- ment of the Navy in a "Study of Coastal Occu- pancy and Hazards." The purpose of this proj- ect is to collect basic information on trends of occupancy and development in coastal areas sub- ject to hurricane wave damages. The study also will attempt to develop ways of classifying prob- lem areas for application to their use and plans for possible regulation of use. Tide Data It is not possible at this time to define the com- puter facilities required for tsunami and storm surge effect warnings. Much research must be accomplished before these requirements can be specificially identified. However, some general conclusions can be drawn. Tsunami Warnings Improvements in tsunami prediction techniques depend on further understanding of the basic na- ture of tsunamis. With the development of a com- puter program for wave propagation, it may be possible to make empirical predictions of wave heights at a particular station, using as input the depth data for the ocean and wave heights meas- ured at other stations. Considerable experience will be necessary before any great reliability could be obtained from such predictions. One of the major inputs to the present system is the determination and description of the char- acteristics of an earthquake. It is assumed that the computer facilities currently available to the C&GS warning system and its epicenter comput- er program will continue to be sufficient in the future. Telemetry and other links to sensors (both tide gages and open-ocean recorders) will be required. Data preconditioning systems and a transmission panel will be required. It is expected that a large storage capacity computer (such as the CDC-6600 or IBM-360) will be required for storage of programs and processing of data. These facilities will have to be available on a high- priority basis. Shore and Estuary Warnings Leased lines from sensors, a data precondition- ing system, a transmission panel, and lines to a large-capacity computer will be required. Present plans call for access to an IBM-360 system, Model 50. Since the results of the Weather Bureau's pro- gram to predict the characteristics of storm sur- ges forms a vital part of the Coast and Geodetic Survey's program to predict the effect of these surges on coastal and estuarine areas, it is pos- sible that the C&GS predictions could be made on the same computer that is used by the Weather Bureau. Priority access will be vital after the Weather Bureau predictions are made. Ultimate- ly, the two warning programs could be combined. Earthquake Warnings It cannot be stated definitely that earthquake prediction techniques will require automatic data processing. Certainly much automatic data-proc- essing work will be required to obtain the basic knowledge on which to base prediction techniques. 76 SECTION V. PROBLEMS OF PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING AND REACTION DURING EMERGENCIES INTRODUCTION The judgments and emotions of human beings are involved at almost every point in the warning process. The reactions of the recipient of a warn- ing are largely determined by the amount of pre- conditioning to which he has been exposed and varies inversely with the time interval which has elapsed since such preconditioning has taken place. Preconditioning may be achieved through a well- planned and well-executed educational program, through personal experience, or by a combination of both. Postanalyses of natural disasters have clearly shown that warnings are frequently either ignored or actually not received by a substantial portion of the public. Further, a substantial portion of those who remember having received warnings fre- quently have indicated that they did not fully be- lieve them. In effect : "It hasn't happened before and it won't this time." Even when warnings are accompanied by specific evacuation or other emer- gency suggestions or orders, they are received with mixed emotions. Concern for personal possessions is frequently cited as the major factor for not wanting to evacuate. It is clear, then, that natural disaster warnings, unless accompanied by specific suggestions or in- structions, are not generally associated by most people with the necessity for evacuation or pro- tective action. Warnings, and even recognition of danger from floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc., do not, for the most part, lead people to think about safety measures that might be taken. In other words, without specific instructions and advance planning,^ general warnings do not lead to safety measures "on the part of the recipients. Conversely, recent experience with any disaster is likely to lead to overreaction. For example, after the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado disaster, the mention of the possibility of a tornado in any fore- cast for the same area frequently led to excitement and precautions entirely out of proportion with the intent of the forecast. TERMINOLOGY AND EDUCATION In order to take effective action as the result of natural disaster warnings, the recipient must un- derstand the warning terminology and have some knowledge of the characteristics of the hazard. In many instances, some preconditioning results from the various forecasts, bulletins, alerts, watches, or advisories, issued in advance of the warning itself. It is quite apparent that the terminology used for forecasts and warnings concerning various types of natural hazards is inconsistent. In con- nection with tornadoes, a forecast generally pre- cedes a warning. The warning is not issued until a tornado or funnel cloud is in existence and has been positively identified. In connection with hurricanes, "advisories" are issued while a storm is at sea. When it comes with- in striking distance of the coast, a "watch" is de- clared for a rather broad area. ( The term "alert" had been used in earlier years, but was changed to "watch" to avoid confusion with "alert" as used by the Civil Defense. ) Sometimes advance "storm warnings" are issued simultaneously with the hur- ricane "watch". As the hurricane's path becomes more certain, "hurricane warnings" are issued, generally 12 to 24 hours in advance of dangerous winds and storm surge waves. The advisories and warnings are issued at 6-hour intervals, based upon internationally agreed times for taking and transmitting weather observations. "Bulletins" are issued at intermediate times to bring up to date the information contained in the previous warning. In the case of tsunamis all issuances are called "bulletins," and are numbered consecutively. A bulletin may contain either an "advisory" as ad- vance notice that an earthquake has occurred and that a tsunami may follow, or it may contain a "warning" if the occurrence or a seismic sea wave has been definitely identified. These various terms were developed to meet spe- cific needs in connection with individual natural hazards. Many geographic areas of the United States are subject to several or nearly all of the hazards enumerated in table 1/1. Furthermore, our population is a mobile one, and people fre- quently move or travel from one potential natural disaster environment to another. To avoid con- fusion and promote better public understanding, the terms used should be reduced in number and standardized to the maximum practicable extent, so that they have the same general connotation in connection with all natural hazards. An intensified and accelerated public education- al program is necessary to explain the terms and give the public a broad, practical background of knowledge of the various types of natural hazards and of the terminology used to forecast their oc- currence and to warn of their existence. In the 77 case of the Palm Sunday tornadoes, for example, very few of those interviewed in the tornado-af- fected areas were aware of the difference between a tornado forecast and a tornado warning. Ac- cordingly, there was no real feeling of urgency even among many of those who actually heard the warnings on radio and television. The "warning" was generally interpreted as just an updated state- ment of the tornado forecast. To avoid possible misunderstanding, the spe- cific geographical areas to which disaster forecasts and warnings apply should be delineated in read- ily understandable terms. The initial tornado forecasts issued by the SELS Forecast Center, for example, indicate geographical areas in broad terms. They refer to portions of States and then delineate a specific "box" such as an "area bound- ed by the points 40 miles south of Burlington, Iowa, to 50 miles west of Lone Rock, Wis., to Milwaukee, Wis., to 40 miles southwest of Chicago, 111., back to the point 40 miles south of Burling- ton, Iowa." Although the quoted section is quite specific, it is not readily understandable at first hearing. It is most difficult to interpret unless one is an expert on local geography or plots the points on a local map. very few people are in a position to do so. Tornado forecast "boxes", outlined in the above manner, are intended only for distribution within the Weather Bureau. Before issuing a forecast publicly, local Weather Bureau offices add the names of the counties which are included within the "box". However, tornadoes are characteristi- cally "short fuse" hazards, and to avoid delay the initial forecast is issued immediately to press wire facilities. Therefore, until a local clarification is received, the complicated area delineation must suffice. (In areas when there is no Weather Bu- reau office, no further clarification is likely.) County designations should be included in the initial forecasts from the SELS Forecast Cen- ter until more understandable designations are developed. The area included in a tornado forecast generally encompasses about 30,000 square miles. The area traversed by an individual tornado averages on the order of 4 square miles (in a narrow, elon- gated path) and about two tornadoes, on the aver- age, occur in a tornado forecast area. This means that only about %ooo tn of the forecast area may actually experience a tornado, or that only about y 50 th of the area would be within even 5 miles of a tornado. It is not surprising, then that in areas outside the major tornado belt, people usually pay little attention to tornado forecasts until they come into close contact with a tornado. It is quite dif- ficult to overcome the general public impression that there are too many instances of "crying wolf." This was quite evident in the case of the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak. The size of the present tornado forecast area was determined as a compromise between "crying wolf" too often, and underwarning. The state of the art does not permit further reduction of the size of the forecast area without risking the occur- rence of too many unforecast tornadoes, with an in- crease in threat to lives and mobile property. Further research and full-time operational use of the new computer at the SELS Forecast Center should eventually lead to a reduction: (1) in the size of the tornado forecast area, and (2) in the time required to process meteorological data and prepare the forecast. The latter will also con- tribute toward eventual further reduction in the forecast area. The Weather Bureau and the Coast and Geo- detic Survey have both issued informational ma- terial in the form of leaflets, brochures, etc. ( Some of these are listed, and a few are reproduced as examples in Section VII, B of this report) . The Red Cross, Civil Defense, and others have repro- duced and distributed thousands of copies of some of them. Radio and television stations have used these publications — as well as audio and visual "shorts" distributed by the Weather Bureau — in connection with station programs presented in the public interest. An accelerated educational program should in- clude: (1) regular updating and broad distribu- tion of informational material l (2) issuance of specific material just before the beginning of sea- sonal natural hazards; and (3) talks and discus- sions in schools, civic groups, etc. Postdisaster surveys have shown that warnings are most effective when accompanied by specific suggested action. Such suggested action is now added immediately following transmission of tor- nado forecasts and warnings over Weather Bureau- operated public dissemination teletypwriter cir- cuits such as the one depicted in figure III/l. Pre- viously prepared teletypewriter punched-tape is used for the transmission of the recommended ac- tion message. Broadcast media are asked to broad- cast the action message immediately following the broadcast of the forecast or warning. In connection with public understanding of seis- mic sea wave warnings, three studies of public re- sponse have been made. One study (Roy Lach- man, Maurice Tatsuoka, and Willima J. Bonk (1961) — "Human Behavior During the Tsunami of May 1960," Science vol. 133, Xo. 3462, pp. 1405- 1409) was made in Hilo, Hawaii, following the May 22, 1960, Chilean tsunami and attempted to determine whether people in the devastated areas of Hilo had received the warning and why they had or had not reacted. Two studies were made in Crescent City, Calif., following the tsunamis of March 28, 1964, and February 4, 1965: (Daniel Yutzy (1964), "Contingencies Affecting the Issu- ing of Public Disaster Warnings at Crescent City, California," The Disaster Research Center, Ohio State University, Research Note No. 4: and Wil- liam Anderson (1965) — "Crescent City Revisited: A Comparison of Public Warning Procedures 78 Used in 1964 and 1965 Emergencies," The Disaster Research Center, Ohio State University, Research Note No. 11). These studies revealed a number of weaknesses in the dissemination of tsunami warning informa- tion and in the response of the public to the infor- mation. The desired level of urgency has not been aroused in the public and at times, the wrong ac- tions have been stimulated. For example, San Francisco newspapers reported that 10,000 people gathered on the beach at San Francisco State Park to watch for the arrival of the tsunami generated by the Prince William Sound earthquake of March 28, 1964. Had a wave as large as the one which destroyed Crescent City struck there, it is probable that most of the spectators would have been killed. For large-scale and for less urgent natural dis- aster warnings, the "action" part of the warning should be developed during predisaster planning meetings and postdisaster surveys. The action message should be added by the responsible local agency official as discussed in the following paragraphs. METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS PRE- PAREDNESS PLANS Where evacuation or other effective action has occurred in response to communicated instructions, residents have, for the most part., had an oppor- tunity to confirm or verify the authenticity of the instructions. Community preparedness plans should designate one single source as authentic for all warning information, and this source should be both known and recognized as authentic. Several States, communities, business and agri- cultural interests, and even individuals, recogniz- ing the catastrophic local effects of a hurricane, tornado, tsunami, flood, earthquake, etc., have adopted disaster preparedness plans. The most effective plans recognize the immediate peril and prescribe appropriate actions to save lives, reduce damage, and minimize personal suffering. Various Federal, State, and local agencies and the Red Cross cooperate and assist in the design of these plans. In spite of the encouraging effort on the part of many, there is considerable evidence that much remains to be accomplished. Some specific preparedness plans are discussed in the following paragraphs. Hurricane Preparedness Plan In the gulf and Atlantic coast areas, hurricane preparedness meetings are organized and conduct- ed annually just before the beginning of the hur- ricane season. Plans and commitments are re- viewed and revised on the basis of operational ex- periences during the past year. The operational experiences of other areas are also considered, as are new technological advances. The Weather Bureau and the Corps of Engineers collaborated on widely used guidance material, "A Model Hur- ricane Plan for a Coastal Community," contained in National Hurricane Research Project Report No. 28. Hurricane CARLA (1961) is a notable example of the successful execution of well-coordinated hurricane emergency plans. In spite of the se- verity of this major hurricane, successful evacu- ation of threatened areas, together with other pre- cautionary measures, kept the death toll to the surprisingly low figure of 46. An excellent and detailed study of the activities, experience, and reaction in connection with this hurricane is con- tained in "Hurricane Carla," prepared by the Of- fice of Civil Defense, Denton, Texas. (See Sec- tion VII, B.) Tornado Preparedness Plan Similarly, many communities have developed positive alerting schemes such as the sounding of civil defense and other sirens to warn of an ap- proaching tornado and the urgent requirement to take cover. Such positive alerting measures have been credited with saving many lives this past year. Examples are the Conway, Arkansas, torn- ado of April 10th and the Minneapoli tornadoes of May 6th. In contrast, the six-State area involved in this year's Palm Sunday tornadoes had few organized tornado plans. No sirens or other alerting signals were used. Unless one happened to be listening to the radio, watching television, or alerted by a neighbor, no warning was received. HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS PRE- PAREDNESS PLANS A flood preparedness plan must recognize the urgency of the time factor related to the local flood problem. Because of the differing time factors, flood plans fall into two categories: (1) Flash- Flood Preparedness Plans and (2) Flood Pre- paredness Plans. Flash-Flood Preparedness Plans The objective is to prepare for possible sudden flooding of communities and farmland along small tributary and headwater streams. In flash-flood situations, it is often impossible to collect the neces- sary storm rainfall observations, transmit them to the nearest Weather Bureau office, process them, prepare a forecast, and relay the forecast to the threatened community in time to do any good. A flood peak may occur within a matter of minutes or a very few hours after the occurrence of heavy rainfall. The Weather Bureau, in cooperation with local community organizations, establishes a local (self-help) flash-flood warning system, which includes instructions on the collection of basic data, "forecasting tools," and a positive local warning plan for use by a designated local flood- warning representative. The advent of radar (which detects rainfall over a large area) makes possible a more active and more satisfactory pro- gram. The plan, where radar exists, is to orga- nize the flash-flood areas under the guidance of the radar station. 79 Typical flash-flood preparedness plans are: "Neshaminy Valley Flood Warning System," established in 1958 and operated by the Neshaminy Valley Watershed Association, George School, Pa., and '"'Flash Flood Warning System for Canton, Ohio," established in 1960. Flood Preparedness Plan The plan proposed here would benefit a com- munity which is subject to flooding and generally has the benefit of an effective warning time of at least 12 hours and sometimes as much as several days. Under such a plan, the Weather Bureau trans- mits the flood forecasts as soon as they are avail- able to a flood- warning center in the affected com- munity. This is usually a local organization ca- pable of receiving such a forecast at any time — day or night. It could well be an organization such as the sheriff's office, the police department, the fire department, or the local civil defense. With this arrangement, firm and well understood both by the issuing Weather Bureau office and by the people, the local community should be prepared to act. The community plan of action should be devel- oped to the point, where businesses and individuals know what a forecast, river height means in terms of their own individual problems. A flood map of the community is extremely helpful in making such information available. Foreknowledge of what areas will be inundated at various flood heights — together with an adequate flood fore- cast — permits certain positive emergency actions to be taken. Goods and equipment can either be elevated above the expected flood height, or they can be removed to known flood-free areas. Typical examples of temporary protection include the dis- connection of electrical equipment, coating of ma- chinery with grease, and filling of tanks to prevent floating. Communities which have been subjected to fre- quent flooding have the most complete prepared- ness plans. For many years, the Weather Bureau has encouraged Federal, State, and local interests in this regard. The Corps of Engineers' "Flood Emergency Manuals" contain a wealth of informa- tion, some of which could be included in local plans. The Corps of Engineers also provides re- quested technical advice and assistance in plan preparation and, under the authority of Public Law 86-645 (Flood Control Act of 1960), can make "Flood Plan Information Studies" upon re- quest of a State or local governmental agency. Tsunamis Local preparedness plans are a prime necessity for effective operation of the Seismic Sea Wave Warning System. Ideally, these plans delineate areas subject to attack by tsunamis, provide effec- tive channels of information to the public, delegate areas of local warning responsibility, determine evacuation routes for threatened areas, and pro- vide for emergency food and shelter, both for brief periods of evacuation and in the event that a major disaster should strike a community. Other Geophysical Hazards Preparedness Plans Earthquakes Local preparedness plans are essential for earth- quake disasters. Preplanning is absolutely neces- sary if local governments are to bring all available resources to bear immediately in order to hold peril to life and property to a minimum in such an emergency. This preplanning must include realis- tic building codes based on seismic risk and on the best available knowledge in the field of earth- quake engineering. Among the many factors which must be taken into account in such preplan- ning are population density, principal types of construction, geography, climate, principal types of industrial activities, sources of electricity and gas supplies, and water and sewage facilities. Local preparedness plans for tsunami disasters, earthquake disasters, or both have been prepared by a number of communities. Specific plans pre- pared by the City of Long Beach, Calif., for earth- quake disasters and by the County of Orange, California, for the dissemination of tsunami warn- ings are recommended as models for other coastal communities. Studies of earthquake risk in south- ern California and in Orange County prepared by the Offices of Civil Defense of Orange County and of the City of Anaheim provide a basis for planning by local communities. Post-Disaster Surveys Did you hear the warning? How did you hear it? Did you understand it? Did you pay any attention to it? Did you know what to do ? Did you receive any suggestions or information as to what you should do? The answers to these and many other questions obtained during postdisaster surveys provide invaluable feedback into the de- sign and operation of the warning system. Most postdisaster surveys in the past have been understaken mainly for quality control purposes by physical scientists and employees of the agency responsible for the warnings. But these people are not generally skilled in the behavorial sciences, and much of the effective feedback is lost. There is a definite requirement that postdisaster surveys, particularly of major disasters, be de- signed and undertaken by skilled poll takers, ap- plying procedures developed by behavioral scien- tists in conjunction with physical scientists knowledgeable in the particular type of disaster. The results should be studied and evaluated by both physical and behavioral scientists, with the objective of determining those procedures and terminology most likely to generate the appro- priate action which should be taken by the public. The comparatively few postdisaster surveys which have been so designed, executed, and evaluated have proven of considerable value in either modi- fying or redesigning the system. 80 SECTION VI. SCOPE OF PROPOSED NATURAL DISASTER WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION The proposed Natural Disaster Warning Sys- tem is not a completely "new system." It is a newly coordinated system which: (a) proposes most effective use of existing facilities of several governmental agencies; (b) minimizes inadequa- cies found in existing facilities and operations; (c) provides for the adoption of the most effective practices of the present systems and their exten- sion to all areas; (d) may be used for the distri- bution of additional types of warnings as the need develops; (e) is flexible and subject to improve- ment with advancing technology; and (f ) encour- ages the individual, the community, and all appro- priate levels of government to design and implement warning plans for efficient and proper response to the system's products. To achieve the above performance characteris- tics, it is imperative that competent subsystems be designed and implemented — subsystems that will eliminate or minimize those problem areas which heretofore have restricted the natural capa- bility of responsible agencies. The findings of this group and the resultant recommendations, if adopted, will provide the necessary capability for the subsystems listed below to meet collectively the objectives of a common Natural Disaster Warning System : NATURAL DISASTER WARNING SUBSYSTEMS 1. Data Acquisition 2. Data Processing (Forecasting) 3. Communications a. Physical facilities b. Exchange of thought 4. Research and Development The Data Acquisition subsystem was referred to in section II and described in more detail in section IV. Some very important weaknesses were identified in section IV, and the means and pro- cedures for strengthening the subsystem and for eliminating the gaps were discussed. The "ex- change of thought" portion of the Communication subsystem was referred to in several sections, but was treated in more detail in section V. Research and Development requirements were pointed out in various sections but referred to more specifically in section IV. The various physical communications facilities were described and enumerated in section III, but only with regard to that portion of the total com- munications subsystem which is currently used in transmitting the warning from the originator to the user. The complicated nature of the present subsystem is amply evident from the flow chart of figure III/2 and the long tabular list of communi- cations methods (table III/l) necessary to de- cipher the diagram. Much of what exists today is the product of temporary expedients. Many individual local offices used their own ingenuity to meet the requirements of successive specific local problems as they arose. In short, today's com- munications subsystem, like Topsy, just grew. The objectives of section VI are twofold : (1) to rectify some of the weaknesses in the "internal communications subsystems" of warning agencies; and (2) to design an efficient, effective, simple, and, as nearly as possible, direct "external communi- cations subsystem" for conveying warnings from the originator to the user. An important con- straint is that maximum use be made of existing and available facilities. COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN WARNING OFFICES 1. RAW ARC System Rapid internal communication and exchange of critical, specialized information between offices responsible for preparing and issuing natural haz- ard warnings is imperative. For rapid internal communications between adjacent Weather Bu- reau offices and with the SELS Forecast Center at Kansas City, the Weather Bureau has installed the RAWARC system (fig. IV/2). It provides a two-way channel for the immediate distribution of severe weather forecasts from the SELS Fore- cast Center to the local offices. It also provides for the transmission and exchange of local warn- ings issued by the local offices, and for the imme- diate transmission of severe local storm and tor- nado reports to the SELS Forecast Center, This is necessary to Ireep abreast of severe storm devel- opments and to revise and update forecasts and warnings. The RAWARC System is operated on a year- round basis. It provides for the exchange and co- ordination of radar information between offices concerning weather hazards in winter, as well as during the spring, summer, and fall when thun- derstorms and tornadoes are prevalent. Although all Weather Bureau offices in the major tornado areas have connections to the RAWARC System there is need for further extension into other natural hazard areas. During the Palm Sunday tornado situation, lack of this facility at some Weather Bureau offices in the area deprived those offices of information from adjacent areas. The SELS and other forecasters were also deprived of invaluable feedback information essential to the timely updating of forecasts and warnings. 81 2. Hurricane Circuit A similar subsystem (the Hurricane Circuit) is operated seasonally in the gulf and east coast areas during the hurricane season. No additional connections to this circuit are required. In con- trast with the RAWARC System, all stations re- quiring connection to the Hurricane Circuit are connected each year when the circuit is reactivated. 3. Emergency Power Conventional wire communications and power- lines are vulnerable to environmental hazards. Both have failed at critical times when data col- lection and warning dissemination were most ur- gent. To prevent such failure in connection with attack warnings, the OCD has undertaken a co- operative program to provide emergency power for a "hardened" network of broadcast stations. The need for similar protection from disruptions due to power failure at ESSA offices with respon- sibility for natural disaster warnings is equally important and deserves priority attention, as evi- denced by failure at the Miami Hurricane Fore- cast Office during Hurricane Cleo (1964) and at the New Orleans office during Hurricane Betsy (1965). i. Emergency Backup Radio Communications The Weather Bureau has adopted emergency arrangements for "backup" offices to assume warn- ing responsibility wherever the communications of an office with primary responsibility are dis- rupted. This is not completely practical, however, unless the primary office can advise the backup office to take over responsibility and can also pass along vital local weather information. In the case of Hurricane Cleo, for example, the hurricane forecast office at Miami was out of communication for nearly an hour before this fact was known ; its communications were spasmodic for a few hours thereafter. There is a definite need for backup radio communications, especially between major forecast and warning offices, to make it possible to continue services during emergencies without interruption. THE NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM For this subsystem, it would be well to start with the user or recipient of the warning — the public, which, as the ultimate users, must in the end take action to protect their lives and property. From this point of departure we shall work back to the source of the warning — the office that has the responsibility for determining what conditions exist or are about to exist and for issuing an appro- priate warning. 1. Outdoor Sirens At the present time outdoor sirens have been installed in almost 1,900 areas, primarily to warn local communities or neighborhoods of possible enemy attack. OCD has under consideration a 82 plan to use only the "take cover" signal as the attack warning signal and to discontinue use of the alerting signal with these sirens. Many com- munities, in anticipation, have agreed to use the sirens for other t than civil defense types of warn- ing, e.g., weather and other natural hazard warnings. In two localities, Minneapolis and Shreveport, arrangements have been made for the responsible warning agency, the Weather Bureau, to activate the outdoor sirens directly. The prerogative of who can and who cannot sound the local warning sirens lies with the local authorities. It is easy to understand the reluctance of some of them to grant permission to too many different agencies or individuals. As more and more people are given permission to sound the alarm, responsibility becomes more diffuse. Loss of control may result, and occasional misuses will become more probable. However, it is very de- sirable to permit local Weather Bureau offices to have this permission in areas where natural hazards with a normally "short fuse" (tornadoes, flash floods, and tsunamis) occur with any regu- larity. The outside sirens will reach many fami- lies and individuals not using a radio or a televi- sion receiver at the critical time when they should be warned immediately. 2. Radio {AM and FM) and Television Broad- casts Studies have indicated that by far the largest part of the population is accessible through radio (AM and FM) and television broadcasts. The logical conclusion, one might think, would be that the Government should go into the broadcast busi- ness by operating on channels in the regular com- mercial broadcast bands. This possibility was considered. Further investigation, however, confirmed the f ollowing conclusion, quoted from the Emergency Broadcast System Plan dated January 6, 1964: "The listening and viewing habits of the general public are a national resource, because the instinc- tive reaction of the average person is to turn on his radio or television set in time of emergency. Accordingly, a minimum of public education is re- quired to establish awareness of these media for receipt of emergency communications." After taking these listening and viewing habits of the general public into account, and exploring the ramifications of putting the Government in the broadcast business in competition with private in- dustry, it becomes evident that the latter is a wholly unsatisfactory approach. The better course is to retain the philosophy of industry con- trol and operation of this Nation's commercial broadcast facilities and to conform with the pub- lic's listening and viewing habits by reaching it through those facilities under voluntary arrange- ments. This can best be done by promoting a continua- tion and extension of* the generally whole- hearted cooperation that exists between those re- sponsible for the warnings and the broadcast industry. There is in existence an industry com- mittee, advisory to the Federal Communications Commission, one of whose objectives is cooperation between the broadcasters and ESSA. This is the National Industry Advisory Committee (NIAC). At the invitation of NIAC itself, various govern- mental agencies are appointing liaison officials to aid and advise the Committee. This work should be continued and expanded. It was through the cooperation of this Commit- tee that the various State FM Defense Networks were established. The Weather Bureau's Hurri- cane Center in Miami received excellent coopera- tion from the Florida State FM Network in reach- ing the public with its hurricane advisories, bul- letins, and warnings, to cite but one example of the results of the work of the NIAC. Because of the relative newness of this operation, such systems are not in use on a national (State-by-State) basis. Such cooperation and "netting" of commercial broadcast facilities should be expanded. a. Emergency alerting receivers At any given time a substantial number of peo- ple may neither be within hearing distance of a siren nor have a radio or television turned on. Some means of alerting them is essential, especially in the case of shortfuse natural disaster warnings. A positive alerting system under development for warnings of enemy attack shows excellent promise for similar use in connection with natural disaster warnings. Details and background on this devel- opment are given below. The responsibility for the dissemination of warnings of an enemy attack to the civilian popu- lation rests with the Department of the Army (Office of Civil Defense) under Executive Order 10,952. However, the Federal Communications Commission, by memorandum of January 21, 1963, was requested by the DOD (OCD) to study and recommend techniques whereby standard and FM radio and television broadcast station facilities could be used to provide a civil defense emergency alerting capability for warning the general pub- lic. The FCC Defense Commissioner appointed a special working group under NIAC to study this problem. Numerous meetings of the special NIAC Work- ing Group, subgroups and ad hoc committees have resulted in field testing of several proposed sys- tems. The FCC Defense Commissioner, on Janu- ary 13, 1965, appointed a new Transmissions Standards subgroup to examine all work thus far accomplished and to recommend a single system to the Commission. On June 29, 1965 the commit- tee finished work on the engineering and philo- sophical parameters of a single system. At a July meeting of the Committee, specifications for the manufacture and purchase of a quantity of radio receivers to be used in pilot tests of the proposed signaling system were prepared. As the committee's work progressed and was evaluated, the FCC requested that they consider the possible dual use of a single system to serve -both the requirements of the FCC for emergency action notification purposes and the requirements of OCD for civil defense attack warning. The same facilities would be available to ESSA for transmissions in connection with natural disaster warnings. Also, concurrently with its basic study, the committee was requested to give consideration to the replacement of the old CONELRAD "At- tention Signal." The committee is expected to develop a system which will permit the use of a reasonably priced AM-FM receiver that can be activated by the re- ceipt of a two-tone signal (853 and 960 cycles) . A section of the receiver will operate at all times; however, when the tones are received the loud- speaker would turn on and the voice message would be audible. The set would continue to re- main in the "on position," until turned off man- ually. The receivers are being designed for use by radio broadcasting stations to receive the alert- ing signal from other broadcasting stations and are expected to be of a design suitable for home use. The cost is expected to be in a price range that will encourage the purchase of these receivers by the general public for the reception of severe weather and other natural hazard warnings as well as civil defense attack warnings. b. NIAC natural disaster learning study group The Defense Commissioner of the Federal Com- munications Commission has recently appointed a special committee to study the individual State Emergency Broadcast System Plans to determine how to utilize broadcast station facilities and asso- ciated plans to the fullest extent during natural disasters. Government agencies with natural dis- aster warning responsibilities should designate representatives to participate in this study group. The development of this system should be com- pleted as soon as practicable, and its inclusion in all receivers manufactured after a predetermined and early date should be made mandatory. If feasible, reasonably priced equipment of this sort should also be made available on a mass-produced basis for purchase and installation on equipment currently in use. Mandatory inclusion in broad- cast receivers of circuitry responsive to an alerting signal will require congressional legislation. Legislation of a similar nature was drafted several years ago by the Federal Communications Com- mission for the purpose of requiring manufac- turers of television sets to include UHF channels in future television receivers. This legislation was sponsored in both the House and Senate, and section 320 of the Communications Act of 1934 w T as amended accordingly. 3. Statewide Public Dissemination Teletypewriter Networks The next phase in this synthesis of an optimum system is to provide the shortest and most direct route from the warning agency to the mass dis- 83 seminator — the commercial broadcaster. In many areas, the Weather Bureau now uses "local loops." These teletypewriter circuits connect local Weather Bureau offices with clients to supply them with general and specialized information. Standard and FM radio stations, television stations, news- papers, city governments, power companies, na- tural gas pipeline transmission companies, etc., are connected to the loops. (See fig. III/l for a typi- cal example. ) These are public service networks, and subscribers only have to pay for the lease of receive-only teletypwriters and, depending on local tariff regulations, a small charge for the local drop. In many areas these local loops are associated with or are part of large State or area loops. Figure VI/1 shows the areas where these loops are currently in operation or planned for installation in the near future. It is highly desirable that these two types of teletypewriter service (local loops and statewide networks) be extended to cover the conterminous States, together with automatic switching and relay facilities to interconnect them. This will make possible national or broadscale dis- semination of material of use or interest on a State, regional, or national basis, while preserving the local or specialized nature of the local loop. Figure VI/2 shows one possible configuration for this nationwide natural disaster warning teletype- writer network. 4. Teletypwriter Positive Alerting Device The advantage of the local-loop teletypewriter circuit for dissemination of warnings through commercial broadcast stations is that it supplies a written message on a piece of paper. The mess- age doesn't have to be written down during a tele- phone conversation and then edited or corrected. The disadvantage is that the teletypewriter itself is usually located in a back room or closet to keep it out of the way and to subdue its noise and clatter. It is left unattended until such time as its copy is needed for a regularly scheduled news and/or weather broadcast. Since it is only visited peri- odically, there is the possibility that a natural dis- aster warning message, even though preceded by a number of bell signals on the machine itself, could go unnoticed for 15 minutes to half an hour or more. A positive warning or alerting device may be rented from the company which supplies the tele- typewriter machine. If the office sending the mes- sage includes, at the beginning of the message, a certain prearranged set of impulses, the alerting device in the receiving machine is energized and activates a light or an audible alarm in some other PUBLIC DISSEMINATION TELETYPEWRITER CIRCUITS '////^ PLANNED FOR FY 66 CURRENTLY IN OPERATION ALASKA • STATION HAVING A LOCAL ■ SEND-RECEIVE DROP ON AREA DISSEMINATION CIRCUIT PUBLIC SERVICE CIRCUIT(WHEN IN CIRCUIT AREA, STATION IS ALSO CONNECTED TO AREA CIRCUIT) Figure VI/1 84 78^-862 O— 65 85 normally occupied office or part of the building. The signal continues until someone goes to the machine, and by pressing a button, deactivates the alerting device to turn it off. The lighting of a sigal lamp in the broadcaster's studio or control room would provide notification that something of an urgent nature is being printed out on his receiving teletypewriter. The announcer or opera- tor would then go immediately and tear off the hard copy for reading on the air at the option of the station. The monthly charge for this positive alerting device varies from State to State oecause of the varying tariffs, but usually it only adds approximately $12 to $15 a year to the cost of the service. It is strongly recommended that this system be implemented on all local loops. On the part of the warning agency, it merely requires the trans- mission of three characters at the beginning of each warning-type message. As figure III/l shows, a wide variety of subscribers receives this service, but not all mass media nor all local gov- ernments are connected. For this reason and for emergency backup when normal communications happen to be disrupted for any cause, at least one backup natural disaster warning communication system is essential. 5. Continuous VHF Radio Tra/nsmissions In the Kansas City, New York, and Chicago areas, the Weather Bureau operates a continuous transmission on a frequency of 162.55 mc in the VHF band. The Weather Bureau has loaned to various types of users and interested groups a pre- tuned receiver suitable for receiving this trans- mission. At intervals these receivers are moved to other locations for use by other organizations on a sort of revolving loan arrangement. Many people who have used these receivers for short periods on loan have since purchased their own. Even though the Kansas City station is using the most rudimentary type of antenna and only 250 watts power, experience has shown that a re- liable signal of a quality acceptable for broadcast on a commercial radio or television broadcast sta- tion is received out to 40 miles, and an under- standable signal is receivable out to 50 miles. This service area could be enlarged by increasing the transmitter power and installing a more efficient antenna system. Over a period of time, as the requirement made itself felt, the Kansas City Weather Bureau Office added an alerting feature (a single distinctive tone) for calling attention to the imminent transmission of a severe weather forecast or warning. Installations of the remote-pickup type, similar to the Kansas City arrangement, should be made in other heavily populated areas where the need for natural disaster warnings dissemination exists. There should be a main and a standby transmitter of at least 400 watts, connected to a storm-resist- ant, efficient antenna system. The voice on the station normally would be supplied from one of two continuous-duty tape drives. The local fore- cast, updated each hour or more often as necessary, will be transmitted, accompanied by specialized weather information for special user groups. Two alerting signals are proposed. One will alert mass disseminators to the fact that a new release or an updating of special interest is about to be transmitted. A second signal will accom- plish automatic switching functions internal to the receiver at the receiving site. For the second func- tion, the receivers should be so designed that the "off switch'* at the receiver deenergizes only the output portion of the receiver, muting the speaker to a minimum. When the coded, positive alerting signal is received, the speaker will be turned full on whether or not the output portion of the re- ceiver is on. For the user who desires it, a switch within the receiver could activate a tape recorder which is on standby to receive any natural disaster warning message for broadcast, or the switch could turn on a signal light or ring a remotely lo- cated alarm bell . With broad outlines and suggestions from the headquarters of the responsible warning agency, general standardization could be achieved nation- wide. Current plans within ESSA envision the consolidation of the various service programs into one overall standardized installation with one mode of operation, modified slightly where necces- sary to meet local conditions. The Weather Bu- reau's fiscal year 1966 budget includes a program to implement a number of the continuous transmis- sions in the VHF band for marine interests along the Atlantic coast. In the following years, addi- tional stations will be installed for other coastal areas and inland waterways under the marine service program. The Kansas City public-sendee type of installation discussed above exists today and, with the success and acceptance of this service, additional installations should be programed for other areas. 6. Tsunami Warning System A special problem arises in connection with the dissemination of tsunami warnings. Reliable 24- hour-per-day communications are in existence be- tween Honolulu Observatory and the five States and the various U.S. agencies and territories to which seismic sea wave warnings are provided. The warnings are transmitted to a central agency of each State which is responsible for relaying the information to appropriate local authorities. Ad- visory and warning information is passed via De- fense Communications Agency (DCA) channels to the Office of Civil Defense National Warning Center for relay over NAWAS to the State Civil Defense Directors of California, Oregon. Wash- ington, and Alaska. The Federal Aviation Agency carries advisory and warning information to the Alaska civil defense authorities over its tele- communications net. Information is passed to Hawaiian Civil Defense by telephone and private 86 line. All circuits used are 24-hour-per-day cir- cuits. The primary communication difficulties are de- lays encountered in the use of DC A circuits be- tween Honolulu and the National Warning Cen- ter. The delays are caused both by handling errors and by backlogs of traffic of equal or higher precedence. The Coast and Geodetic Survey is currently empowered to use "Immediate" prece- dence preceded by a 5-bell signal on DCA circuits. DCA system requirements state that messages of this precedence will be delivered within 30 min- utes; however, transmission times for advisory and warning information to the States of Wash- ington, Oregon, and California have greatly ex- ceeded this figure. For example, following the earthquake of 2058 GMT July 2, 1965, three mes- sages to these States took 59 minutes, 42 minutes, and 2 hours 25 minutes, respectively. Attempts to determine the cause of delay have not been suc- cessful. Service provided by the FAA to Alaska is usually excellent; however, in the March 28, 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska, earthquake, the FAA communication facilities at Anchorage were destroyed, and there is no record that the messages sent by Honolulu Observatory in connection with this event were received by Alaska Civil Defense. Even had these messages been received by them, little warning value would have resulted since most Alaskan communities which were damaged by the tsunami were struck before the warning was issued because of their proximity to the epi- center of the earthquake. To improve warning dissemination service, two courses are available. First, authorization could be secured from the Defense Communication Agency to assign "Emergency" precedence to Seis- mic Sea Wave Warning System messages. (This authorization is not permitted by current military operating procedure.) There is no guarantee that upgrading the precedence of the Warning Sys- tem messages will give the desired speed of serv- ice, but improvement is necessary. The second course would be to install circuits under the control of ESSA on which to pass ad- visory and warning information. This alterna- tive would be costly and probably could not be justified unless the circuits were also used for other purposes. This problem will be given specific and detailed further study within ESSA, especially from the standpoint of determining whether any configurations of existing or proposed worldwide meteorological communications circuits could suffice. 7. National Warning System (NAWAS) The NAWAS facilities of the Office of Civil Defense are described in detail in section III as shown in figure III/6. Weather Bureau offices in several States are already connected to this Sys- tem. It has been used for several years as the primary dissemination network for seismic sea wave warnings. It provides an excellent backup or secondary facility to various points within each State and for two-way discussions between State and local emergency and disaster offices and the warning agency. Its role as a source of feedback to the forecaster is discussed in more detail below. 8. Amateur Radio The role and use of amateur radio facilities as an additional supplementary emergency backup were discussed in some detail in section III. In different localities, amateur radio operators have voluntarily formed emergency networks. One with a very appropriate name is the recently formed Wisconsin WARN System (Weather Am- ateur Radio Network). This group and many others serve not only as emergency/supplemental communications channels, but additionally as tor- nado spotters and thus are a part of the detection subsystem of the overall proposed Natural Dis- aster Warning System. These associations of ded- icated amateur radio operators have in most cases been formed on a local or regional basis for a single pressing need. It would be highly desirable for the warning agencies to achieve and maintain a certain amount of liaison with the various groups for the purpose of acquainting the members with the requirements for their services and their great usefulness. 9. Feedback Once almost any kind of disaster develops, the agency responsible for the preparation of the warning needs to have a ''reading on the current state of affairs. , ' It may not be a widespread re- porting, but a little information on what is hap- pening is helpful — a warning or a prognosis can be sharpened up and made more specific when the warning agency is provided with proper feedback. The last two supplementary/backup systems men- tioned above are admirably suited for this role. The NAWAS of the Office of Civil Defense is a party line. If the warning agency is equipped with a send-receive connection to this network, and further, if local authorities are apprised of the necessity for providing the required feedback, another facet of the optimum system is provided. A participating network of radio amateurs is also quite capable of supplying additional feedback, if this becomes a standard working part of its pro- cedures. THE NATURAL DISASTER WARNING COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM Given the facilities discussed in this section, the Natural Disaster Warning Communications Sys- tem, instead of looking like figure III/2, will be as shown in figures 1 and 2 of this report. It will provide : 1. one single main channel, equipped with a pos- itive alerting device, from the responsible warning 87 agency to the emergency control offices as well as to the mass disseminators ; 2. printed copies of all warnings ; 3. continuously operating radio backup for au- thentic voice warnings and supplementary information ; 4. voice backup for two-way discussion between the warning agency office and State and local emergency offices; 5. backup radio facilities with continuous trans- mission to emergency control offices, mass dissem- inators, and anyone else who needs the informa- tion ; 6. feedback of information to the responsible warning agency; 7. a positive alerting system, operative even on broadcast receivers which may not be turned on at the time; and 8. use of sirens for warning many of those who are not near radio or television receivers. And it will: 1. capitalize on the listening habits of the public by continuing to depend on commercial AM/FM radio and television broadcasts as the primary media for reaching the public ; 2. make maximum effective use of existing systems and facilities ; 3. be flexible enough to accommodate additional types of warnings for the general public as required. 88 SECTION VII. FACTUAL INFORMATION A. Legislative and Executive Orders Setting Forth Responsibility for Warnings of Na- tural Hazards and for Action in Connec- tion With Natural Disasters I. Department or Commerce A. Central Radio Propagation Laboratory (Action is underway to transfer the CRPL from the National Bureau of Standards to the new En- vironmental Science Services Administration. However, the CRPL's responsibilities currently devolve from the basic legislation of the NBS, to- gether with Department of Commerce Orders.) National Bureau of Standards Basic Legisla- tion — Organic Act — Act of March 3, 1901, as amended. 31 Stat. 1449; 15 USCA 272: Sec. 2. The Secretary of Commerce is author- ized to undertake the following functions: (a) The custody, maintenance, and develop- ment of the national standards of measurement, and the provisions of means and methods for mak- ing measurements consistent with those standards, including the comparison of standards used in scientific investigations, the engineering, manufac- turing, commerce, and educational institutions with the standards adopted or recognized by the Government. In carrying out the functions enumerated in this section, the Secretary is authorized to undertake the following activities and similar ones for which need may arise in the operations of Government agencies, scientific institutions, and industrial enterprises : (9) the investigation of radiation, radioactive substances, and X-rays, their uses, and means of protection of persons from their harmful effects; (11) the broadcasting of radio signals of stand- ard frequency; (12) the investigation of the conditions which affect the transmission of radio waves from their source to a receiver; (13) the compilation and distribution of infor- mation on such transmission of radio waves as a basis for choice of frequencies to be used in radio operations ; (18) the prosecution of such research in engi- neering, mathematics, and the physical sciences as may be necessary to obtain basic data pertinent to the functions specified herein; * * * Department of Commerce- — Departmental Order 90 (Revised) : Sec. 10, .01. The Central Radio Propagation Laboratory is the central agency of the Federal Government for the collection, analysis, and dis- semination of information on the propagation of electromagnetic waves, on the related electro- magnetic properties of the atmosphere, on the nature of electromagnetic noise and interference, and the methods for the more efficient use of the electromagnetic spectrum for telecommunications purposes. B. Coast and Geodetic Survey, ESSA Public Law 373 80th Congress, Chapter 504 (to de- fine the functions and duties of the Coast and Geodetic Survey) (as amended) : Section 1. * * * to provide charts and related information for the safe navigation of marine and air commerce, and to provide basic data for engineering and scientific purposes and for other commercial and industrial needs, the Director of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, under the direc- tion of the Secretary of Commerce, is authorized to conduct the following activities : (2) tide and current observations; (5) geomagnetic, seismological, gravity, and related geophysical measurements and investiga- tions, and observations for the determination of variation in latitude and longitude. Sec. 2. In order that full public benefit may be derived from the operations of the Coast and Geodetic Survey by the dissemination of data re- sulting from the activities herein authorized and of related data from other sources, the Director is authorized to conduct the following activities: (1) Analysis and prediction of tide and cur- rent data; Sec. 3. To provide for the orderly collection of geomagnetic data from domestic and foreign sources, and to assure that such data shall be readily available to Government and private agen- cies and individuals, the Coast and Geodetic Sur- vey is hereby designated as the central depository of the United States Government for geomagnetic data, and the Director is authorized to collect, correlate, and disseminate such data. Sec. 4. * * * authorized * * * to conduct in- vestigations and research in geophysical sciences (including geodesy, oceanography, seismologj^, and geomagnetism ) . C. Weather Bureau, ESSA Organic Act of 1890 {Oct. 1, 1890, ch. 1266, 1, 26 Stat. 653) . — The weather service, which had been established by Joint Congressional Resolution H.R. 143, Feb. 2, 1870, signed by the President Feb. 9, 1870, by assignment to the Signal Service of the War Department, was transferred on July 1, 1891 to the Department of Agriculture. Re- organization Plan No. IV, 8, eff. June 30, 1940, transferred the Weather Bureau to the Depart- ment of Commerce (5 U.S.C. 133t, 5 F.R. 2421, 54 Stat. 1236). 15 U.S.C. 313— Duties of Chief of Bureau.— The Chief of the Weather Bureau, under the direction 89 of the Secretary of Commerce, shall have charge of the forecasting of the weather, the issue of storm warnings, the display of weather and flood signals for the benefit of agriculture, commerce, and navi- gation, the gauging and reporting of rivers, the maintenance and operation of seacoast telegraph lines and the collection and transmission of marine intelligence for the benefit of commerce and navi- gation, the reporting of temperature and rainfall conditions for the cotton interests, the display of frost and cold- wave signals, the distribution of meteorological information in the interest of agri- culture and commerce, and the taking of such meteorological observations as may be necessary to establish and record the climatic conditions of the United States, or as are essential for the proper execution of the foregoing duties. (The Weather Bureau inherited from the Signal Corps responsi- bility for warning of storms on the Great Lakes and the Atlantic and gulf coasts.) (Maintenance and operation of the seacoast telegraph lines were transferred to the Coast Guard in the late 1920's.) Flood Control Act of 1938 (33 U.S.C. 706) auth- orized the Secretary of War to allot money from appropriations for flood control to the Weather Bureau for establishment, operation, and main- tenance of a current information service on pre- cipitation, flood forecasts, and flood warnings, whenever in the opinion of the Chief of Engineers and the Chief of the Weather Bureau such serv- ice is advisable in connection with flood control purposes. Public Law 657, 1948 authorized and directed the Chief of the Weather Bureau * * * to study fully and thoroughly the internal structure of thunderstorms, hurricanes, cyclones, and other severe atmospheric disturbances * * *. Public Law, 71. 1955 authorized and directed the Secretary of the Army, in cooperation with the Secretary of Commerce and other Federal agencies concerned with hurricanes to cause an examination and survey to be made of the eastern and southern seaboard of the United States with respect to hurri- canes, with particular reference to areas where severe damages have occurred. Such survey, to be made under the direction of the Chief of Engi- neers, shall include the securing of data on the behavior and frequency of hurricanes, and the determination of methods of forecasting their paths and improving warning services, and of pos- sible means of preventing loss of human lives and damages to property, with due consideration of the economics of proposed breakwaters, seawalls, dikes, dams, and other structures, warning serv- ices, or other measures which might be required. 14 U.S.C. 147. — In order to promote the safety of life and property on and over the high seas and waters over which the United States has jurisdic- tion, and to facilitate the preparation and dissem- ination by the Weather Bureau of the weather re- ports, forecasts, and warnings essential to the safe and efficient conduct of domestic and interna- tional commerce on and over such high seas and waters, the Commandant (USCG) may cooperate with the Chief of the Weather Bureau by procur- ing, maintaining, and making available, facilities and assistance for observing, investigating, and communicating weather phenomena and for dis- seminating weather data, forecasts, and warn- ings * * *. 90 United States of America DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT ORDER 2-B MANUAL OF ORDERS Part 1 DATE OF ISSUANCE September 30, 1965 EFFECTIVE DATE October 1, 1965 SUBJECT ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION SECTION 1. PURPOSE: The purpose of this order is to prescribe the organization and assignment of functions within the Environmental Science Services Administration, and effect the transfer of the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory of the National Bureau of Standards to ESSA. SECTION 2. ADMINISTRATOR OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINIS- TRATION: The Administrator develops the objectives of the Administration, formulates policies and programs for achieving those objectives and directs execution of these programs. He is assisted by the Deputy Administrator. Liaison activities with Congress are centered in the Office of the Administrator. SECTION 3. ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SERVICE: * The Environmental Data Service colLects, processes, archives, publishes, disseminates and recalls world-wide environmental data for use by commerce, industry, the scientific and engineering community, and the general public; guides research activities pertinent to the improvement of such services; and coordinates international activities in climatological and geophysical data problems with the world scientific organizations. In support of the above objectives, the Environmental Data Service maintains environmental data centers such as the National Weather Records Center (Ashville, N. C. ), the Aeronomy and Space Data Center and the geophysical data centers. • 01 The Office of Environmental Data Systems processes, stores, and retrieves environ- mental data; develops new techniques of summarization and presentation of data in order to provide service to the user; provides ready access to environmental data and aids in their application to numerous fields of endeavor; and provides facilities for the world data centers under international auspices. . 02 The Office of Field Services exercises functional management over field staffs in the acquisition of climatological data to meet international, national, state and municipal require- ments; and ensures field outlets for the dissemination of environmental data and appropriate cooperation with local authorities. .03 The Laboratory for Environmental Data Research develops the analysis, processing, and interpretation of geophysical and climatological data through research activities; and an- ticipates needs for climatological and geophysical data for design and risk assessment and stimulates original work to meet these needs. .04 The Office of Data Information ensures proper dissemination of environmental data information to the user public and scientific community from centralized data information sources. SECTION 4. WEATHER BUREAU: * The Weather Bureau provides the national weather service, observing and reporting the weather of the United States and its possessions and issuing forecasts and warnings of weather and flood conditions that affect the Nation' s safety, welfare and economy; develops the Na- tional Meteorological Service System; participates in international meteorological and hydro- logical activities, including exchanges of meteorological data and forecasts; and provides DOZ-B - 2 - forecasts for domestic and international aviation and for shipping on the high seas. In sup- port of the above objectives the Weather Bureau operates through its Regions a national net- work of field offices and forecast centers. .01 The Office of Meteorological Operations observes and prepares and distributes fore- casts of weather conditions and warnings of severe storms and other adverse weather condi- tions for protection of life and property; establishes policies and develops plans and pro- cedures for operation of meteorological services and is the primary channel for coordina- tion of all Weather Bureau field service operations. .02 The Office of Hydrology provides the Nation with river and flood forecasts and warnings and water supply forecasts; conducts the necessary research to improve river and flood forecasts and warnings; and analyzes and processes hydrometeorological data for broad application to water resource planning, design and operational problems. .03 The National Meteorological Center provides analyses of current weather conditions over the globe and depicts the current and anticipated state of the atmosphere for general national and international uses; conducts development programs in numerical weather pre- diction; and leads in the extension and application of advanced techniques. .04 The Office of Systems Development manages, plans, designs and develops a system to meet all meteorological service requirements; develops, tests and evaluates techniques and equipment; translates research results into operational practices; and conducts studies associated with the design of the World Weather Watch. .05 The Executive and Technical Services Staff provides executive assistance to the Director and technical services, e.g., facilities, maintenance, computers, etc., in sup- port of programs throughout the Bureau. .06 A Region provides weather service within its prescribed geographical area by issuing forecasts and warnings of weather and flood conditions; manages all operational and scientific meteorological and hydrological programs assigned to it; and conducts technical and ad- ministrative support functions. a. A Region consists of a headquarters office, is managed by a Regional Direc- tor, and contains field offices and forecast centers reporting to the Regional Director. b. Regions provide technical and administrative support for all components of ESSA in the respective areas of the Regions, except as may otherwise be provided because of special circumstances applicable to some field compo- nent. c. The field structure consists of six Regions as shown in Exhibit 2. SECTION 5. INSTITUTES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: * The Institutes for Environmental Research conducts an integrated research program re- lating to the oceans and inland waters, the lower and upper atmosphere, the space environ- ment, and the earth to increase understanding of man 1 s geophysical environment in order to provide more useful services; and conducts propagation research and services in support of the Nation' s telecommunication activities. Each Institute operates certain observatories and laboratories in the field where necessary to observe environmental phenomena. .01 The Institute for Earth Sciences conducts advanced and exploratory research and applied research in geomagnetism, seismology, geodesy and related earth sciences; contributes the benefits of this knowledge to furthering of man' s welfare; and works in close contact with the other institutes for environmental research. 92 DO 2-B .02 The Institute for Oceanography provides increased knowledge and better under- standing of the ocean and its influences on or interactions with the total physical environ- ment of the globe as required to improve marine resources and services; and works closely with the other institutes for environmental research. .03 The Institute for Atmospheric Sciences develops a fuller physical understanding of atmospheric processes and phenomena as required for improving weather forecasts and related services and for modifying and controlling the weather; and works closely with the other institutes for environmental research. .04 The Institute for Telecommunications Science s and Aeronomy enhances the tele- communication and space capabilities of the Nation by conducting research in aeronomy and space environment disturbances; by serving as the central Federal agency for re- search and service in the field of electromagnetic telecommunications; and works closely with the other institutes for environmental research. .05 The Office of Administrative and Support Services provides assigned adminis- trative and support services required by the Institutes for Environmental Research at its headquarters location (Boulder, Colorado), and at other locations to the extent it is determined that such services cannot be provided more efficiently by Regions of the Weather Bureau or by the Office of Administration of ESSA. The Office of Ad- ministrative and Support Services shall be responsible for providing services to, and coordinating services received from the National Bureau of Standards in the Boulder, Colorado area, in accordance with Section 11.02. SECTION 6. COAST AND GEODETIC SURVEY :* The Coast and Geodetic Survey provides charts for the safety of marine and air naviga- tion; provides a basic network of geodetic control; provides basic data for engineering, scientific, commercial, industrial, and defense needs; and supports the quest for more fundamental knowledge of our geophysical environment. In performance of these func- tions it conducts surveys, investigations, analyses, research, and disseminates data in the following fields: hydrography, oceanography, geodesy, cartography, photogrammetry, geomagnetism, seismology, gravity, and astronomy. In support of the above objectives the Coast and Geodetic Survey maintains certain field installations and through its Field Directors directs mobile parties and field offices. .01 The Office of Geodesy and Photogrammetry fulfills national requirements for a system of basic geodetic control and for precise gravimetric, and global configura- tion and mensuration data. In accomplishment of this it establishes and maintains a geodetic control network throughout the United States and a world-wide geometric network based on satellite observations; plans and directs geodetic, gravity, astronomic, earth movement, and photogrammetric surveys; and conducts related research in support of ESSA programs. . 02 The Office of Seismology and Geomagnetism supports the quest for a better understanding of seismic and geomagnetic phenomena and their relation to the state and structure of the earth; and fulfills national requirements for standardized seis- mic and geomagnetic data. In the accomplishment of this it collects, analyzes, and compiles data on a national and world-wide basis; maintains liaison with geophysicists throughout the world; and conducts related research in support of ESSA programs. 93 DO 2-B - 4 - .03 The Office of Hydrography and Oceanography contributes to the safety of marine navigation through nautical charting; supports the quest for more knowledge about the states and processes of the ocean. In the accomplishment of this it plans and directs hydrographic and oceanographic surveys (including current surveys) and operates a network of tide stations; processes, analyzes, and compiles the survey data including the compilation of nautical charts for end use and dissemination; and conducts related research in support of ESSA programs. .04 The Office of Aeronautical Charting and Cartography contributes to the safe navigation of air commerce and provides nautical and aeronautical charts for widespread use. To accomplish this it collects and evaluates air navigation information and compiles aeronautical chart manuscripts; prints and distributes nautical and aeronautical charts; maintains liaison with interests concerned with navigation regulations and information; and conducts research in support of these programs. .05 The Executive and Technical Services Staff provides executive assistance to the Director and technical services in support of programs throughout the Coast and Geodetic Survey. .06 The Field Structure consists of the various organizational elements, as enumerated below. The location of the principal field elements are shown in Exhibit 2. a. The Atlantic and Pacific Marine Centers, the heads of which report to the Director, Coast and Geodetic Survey. b. Five Field Directors who report to the Director, Coast and Geodetic Survey and are responsible for managing mobile parties and chart information and distribution field offices. c. Observatories, seismology centers, and tsunami centers which report to the appropriate program components at the headquarters of Coast and Geodetic Survey. SECTION 7. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL, SATELLITE CENTER:* The National Environmental Satellite Center provides observations of the environment by means of satellites; increases the utilization of satellite data in the environmental sciences; establishes and operates a national environmental satellite system; manages and coordinates all operational satellite programs within ESSA and certain research-oriented satellite pro- grams; conducts satellite systems engineering and research; and coordinates satellite activities with NASA and DOD. The National Environmental Satellite Center operates certain field installations such as Command and Data Acquisition Stations at locations required by the satellite system. .01 The Office of Operations provides data from environmental satellites and increases the value and the use of these data; operates the environmental satellite systems; collects, pro- cesses and analyzes data from operational and specified research and development satellites; develops new and improved applications of satellite data; and maintains close relations with prime users of satellite data within ESSA and externally with NASA and DOD. .02 The Office of System Engineering provides the planning, design, and engineering nec- essary to fulfill ESSA' s requirements for environmental satellite systems; conducts systems design and analysis; explores possible multipurpose uses of environmental satellite systems; performs the engineering required to implement new or modified satellite systems; and main- tains close relations with NASA and DOD. .03 The Office of Research improves understanding oiTthe environment through sat- ellite data and provides new and improved satellite measurement techniques and ap- 94 - 5 - DO 2-B plications; and maintains close relations within ESSA, particularly with the Institutes for Environmental Research. SECTION 8. GENERAL STAFF OFFICES: .01 The Office of Science and Engineering coordinates, synthesizes, and evaluates ESSA' s total science and engineering programs; and provides a focal point for Administration-wide information and recommendations on science and engineering in ESSA. .02 The Office of Planning and Program Evaluation coordinates, synthesizes and evaluates ESSA program plans and provides a focal point for Administration-wide planning information and planning processes; and provides staff support to the Administrator in ESSA -wide policy, pro- gram requirements and long-range organizational and strategic planning through development and application of manage rial and analytical te chnique s including benefit /cost de te rminations . .03 The Office of Administration provides a full range of service, advice and guidance in administrative management matters throughout the Administration, including the develop- ment and application of policies, standards and procedures pertaining thereto and the exer- cise of functional management over the performance of administrative management functions performed elsewhere in ESSA; maintains liaison with the Bureau of the Budget, Civil Service Commission, General Accounting Office, and General Services Administration. a. The Administrative Operations Division provides services throughout the Administra- tion consisting of property, procurement and supply management; space and facilities manage- ment; travel and transportation services; mail and messenger services, and related office services; printing and graphics services, safety; security; and emergency planning. b. The Budget and Finance Division provides staff assistance in formulating and executing the Administration' s budget; provides financial services; develops and coordinates informa- tion necessary to formulate and execute the budget; maintains and processes records and accounts reflecting fund status, payment obligations and program expenditures; maintains relations with Bureau of the Budget, legislative staffs, and the General Accounting Office in these matters . c The Financial Management Systems Staff provides advice andassistance inall aspects of finan- cial management throughout the Administrationby undertaking studies , analyzing requirements , and re commending financial techniques , reporting methods, and accounting policies . d. The Management and Organization Division provides management analysis and related staff services throughout the Administration by conducting or participating in surveys, studies, and analyses designed to improve organization management systems, and procedures; parti- cipates in organization planning and documentation; maintains a system of position control; develops systems for measuring production and performance efficiency; maintains directives and other paperwork management systems; and coordinates planning and development of ADP applications in the administrative management area. e. The Personnel Division provides personnel management services throughout the Admin- istrationby conducting recruitment , employment, classification and compensation, employee relations, labor relations , incentive awards , and career development activities for civil serv- ice and commissioned personnel; and maintains liaison with the Civil Service Commission and deals with labor organizations on agreements . SECTION 9. SPECIAL, STAFF OFFICES: 01 The Office of International Affairs formulates and coordinates policies, plans and pro- cedures for U.S. participation in international activities in the environmental sciences; manages and coordinates ESSA' s international training program; and advises on special pro- grams for bilateral cooperation with foreign countries in the environmental sciences, in- cluding U.S. AID programs and PL-480 programs. 95 DO 2-B - 6 - . 02 The Office of Public Information plans and conducts an information program for the Administration which presents ESSA accomplishments and activities to the public, Congress : environmental data user groups, and Administration employees; coordinates public informa- tion activities within the Administration; and maintains close contact with communications media. .03 The Management Information Center provides a broad view of ESSA program per- formance status to facilitate managerial decisions; and is the principal center for manage- ment information, developing and operating a system of resource status and program ac- complishment reporting. .04 The Office of User Affairs provides leadership in identifying and proposing means for improved services to users, other than aviation services; maintains continuing liaison with such user groups; and operates the Environmental Hazards Warning Information Center. .05 The Office of Aviation Affairs coordinates aviation user requirements, balancing them against available resources; establishes objectives and recommends policies for aviation services; serves as aviation services adviser to the Administrator and his senior line managers; and advises the Administrator, FAA, on ESSA aviation service programs. .06 The Internal Audits Staff assists the Administrator and other officials by performing comprehensive audits of operating and administrative programs to determine whether these programs are being carried out effectively, efficiently, and economically and in accordance with laws and established administrative policies and procedures; and by auditing selected procurement and other contracts and carrying out other externaL audit responsibilities as required. SECTION 10. SPECIAL OFFICES: The following offices perform special departmental responsibilities assigned to the Administration: .01 The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research coordinates Federal meteorological activities and prepares plans for the efficient utilization of Federal meteorological services and supporting research; and maintains re- lations with all Federal agencies engaged in meteorological operations and supporting research. .02 The Office of Radio Frequency Management provides policy guidance and technical and administrative support in the determination of requirements and the management and use of radio frequencies assigned to the Department of Commerce. SECTION 11. TRANSFER OF THE CENTRAL, RADIO PROPAGATION LABORATORY: .01 As provided by Department Order 2-A of July 13, 1965, the transfer to ESSA of the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory of the National Bureau of Standards, together with its personnel, funds, records and property, shall be effective October 11, 1965. Upon the effective date of its transfer, the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory is redesignated the Institute for Telecommunications Sciences and Aeronomy. .02 Upon approval by the Assistant Secretary for Administration, with the concurrence of the Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology, of arrangements between ESSA and the National Bureau of Standards for providing administrative and other support services to their respective components located in the Boulder, Colorado area, which arrangements shall pro- vide for inter-bureau serving wherever practicable, personnel of the National Bureau of Standards performing the administrative and other support functions at Boulder, Colorado that are to be assumed by ESSA shall be transferred from the National Bureau of Standards to ESSA . 96 II. Department of Defense A. Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army The special continuing statutory authority of the Corps of Engineers for flood and hurricane/ storm emergency operations is contained in sec- tion 5 of the Flood Control Act approved August 1941, as amended by the Flood Control Act of 1946 and 1948, by section 210 of the Flood Control Act of 1950 (Public Law 516, 81st Congress) , by Public Law 99, 84th Congress, and by section 206 of the Flood Control Act of 1962. That authority is commonly referred to as Public Law 99. Activities under this statutory authority in- clude: flood emergency preparation; flood fight- ing and rescue operations; emergency work on flood control works, such as levees which are threatened, damaged, or destroyed by flood; the emergency protection of a federally authorized hurricane or shore protection project being threatened when in the discretion of the Chief of Engineers such protection is warranted to pro- tect against imminent and substantial loss to life and property; and the repair and restoration of any federally authorized hurricane-flood or shore protective structure damaged by wind, wave, or water action of other than an ordinary nature when in the discretion of the Chief of Engineers such repair and restoration is warranted for the adequate functioning of the structure for hurri- cane-flood or shore protection. Only minor im- provement of existing works is made under this authority. Public Law 99 authorizes an emergency fund in the amount of $15 million for these activi- ties, and annual replenishment thereof by con- gressional appropriation; the law further pro- vides that should the Emergency Fund be tem- porarily depleted, other appropriated funds may be used pending reimbursing appropriation. The general authority for flood plain informa- tion studies by the Corps of Engineers is section 206, Public Law 86-645 (approved July 14, 1960), which authorizes the Secretary of the Army, through the Chief of Engineers, to compile and disseminate information on floods and flood dam- ages, including identification of areas subject to inundation by floods of various magnitudes and frequencies, and general criteria for guidance in the use of flood plain areas; and to provide engi- neering advice to local interests for their use in planning to ameliorate the flood hazard ; Provided, That the necessary surveys and studies will be made and such information and advice will be provided for specific localities only upon the re- quest of a State or a responsible local governmental agency and upon approval by the Chief of Engineers. B. Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Secre- tary of the Army, Department of the Army (The Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950, as amended, makes provision for necessary civil de- fense communications and for dissemination of warnings of enemy attack to the civilian popula- tion. Executive Order 10952, dated July 20, 1961, delegated this authority to the Secretary of De- fense. It was subsequently redelegated to the Secretary of the Army and assigned to the Direc- tor of Civil Defense. The following provisions are from Executive Order 10952.) Section 1(a) * * * Such functions to be per- formed * * * working as necessary or appropri- ate through other agencies by contractual or other agreements, as well as with State and local leaders, shall include but not be limited to the development and execution of: ( iii ) all steps necessary to warn or alert Federal military and civilan authorities, State officials, and the civilian population ; (iv) all functions pertaining to communica- tions, including a warning network, reporting on (fallout) monitoring, instructions to shelters and communications between authorities; (v) emergency assistance to State and local gov- ernments in a postattack period, including water, debris, fire, health, traffic, police, and evacuation capabilities; * * * III. Federal Communications Commission Under the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (47 U.S.C. 606), the Federal Communi- cations Commission has no direct statutory respon- sibility for weather (or other natural hazard) warnings to the public. However, one of the basic reasons for the Communications Act was the promotion of the safety of life and property through the use of wire and radio communication. The Commission has recognized the need for non- government radio stations to cooperate with all government agencies responsible for preparing and disseminating warnings. The Commission has amended the broadcast rules to provide for the voluntary dissemination of weather warnings. Executive Order 11092 — Assigning Emergency Preparedness Functions to the Federal Com- munications Commission. Section 1. Scope. The Federal Communica- tions Commission shall, subject to the policy guidance of the Director of the Office of Emer- gency Planning, prepare national emergency plans and develop preparedness programs covering pro- vision of service by common carriers, broadcast- ing facilities, and safety and special radio serv- ices * * *. These plans and programs shall be designed to develop a state of readiness in these areas with respect to all conditions of national emergency, including attack upon the United States, and will take into account the possibility of Government preference or priority with com- mon carriers or of exclusive Government use or control of communications services or facilities, when authorized by law. 97 Federal Communications Commission Eules and Regulations Sec. 73.90. Emergency Weather Warnings. — Upon receipt of notification of an Emergency Weather Warning of a condition of immediate danger to life and property from the U.S. Weather Bureau, all standard broadcast stations may, at their option, during authorized hours of operation only, broadcast the Emergency Action Notifica- tion Signal (two 5-second carrier breaks and 15 seconds of 1,000 CPS tone) followed by the Emer- gency Weather Warning. Nothing in this sec- tion shall be construed as authorizing a daytime only or limited time station to operate during un- authorized hours. IV. Office of Emergency Planning, Executive Office of the President (The Federal Disaster Act, as amended (Public- Law 875, 81st Congress, 42 U.S.C. 1855-1855g) authorizes Federal assistance to States and local governments in major disasters and for other pur- poses. Executive Orders 10427 and 10737 pro- vide for the administration of disaster relief and assigned the responsibility to the Director of the Office of Emergency Planning.) V. U.S. Coast Guard, Department of the Treas- ury (In accordance with sections 2 and 91, Title 14, U.S.C, and Executive Order 10173, as amended, promulgated pursuant to Public Law 679, 81st Congress, 2d session, amending the Espionage Act of June 15, 1917 (50 U.S.C. 191), the U.S. Coast Guard is the Federal Agency responsible for the safety of life and property on the high seas and on waters subject to the jurisdiction of the United States.) U.S. Coast Guard Regulations Part 4 — Assistance, Search and Rescue 3-4-2 Statutory Authority A. The basic provisions of law fixing responsi- bility upon the Coast Guard for the performance of the assistance, search, and rescue functions are summarized in the following citations: (1) In order to render aid to distressed persons, vessels, and aircraft on the high seas and on waters over which the LTiited States has jurisdiction, and in order to render aid to persons and property imperiled by flood, the Coast Guard may : (a) perform any and all acts necessary to rescue and aid persons and protect and save property; * * * (4) Carrying out the duties incident to the International Ice Patrol (46 U.S.C. 738a) . (738a * * * an ice patrol shall be maintained during the whole of the ice season in guarding the southeast- ern, southern, and southwestern limits of the re- gion of icebergs in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, and the patrol shall inform trans- Atlantic and other passing vessels by radio and such other means as are available of the ice conditions and the extent of the dangerous re- gion * * *.) Part 7 — Miscellaneous Duties and Services 3-7-2 Statutory Authority (A, 22) Cooperate with the Weather Bureau by making available facilities and assistance for ob- serving, investigating and communicating weather phenomena and for disseminating weather data, forecasts, and warnings. (14 YJ.S.C. 147.) 98 B. List of Natural Disaster Preparedness Material Meteorological Hazards 1. "Community Action Against Tornadoes" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. (See sample on p. 101.) 2. "Tornadoes— What They Are and What To Do About Them"— U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. 3. "Tornadoes— Safety Rules"— U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bu- reau. 4. "Hurricane Carla" — U.S. Department of De- fense, Office of Civil Defense, Region 5, Denton, Tex. 5. "When a Hurricane Threatens" — U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bu- reau. (See sample on p. 103.) 6. "Hurricane Tracking Chart"— U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bu- reau. 7. "When a Typhoon Threatens"— U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bu- reau. 8. "A Model Hurricane Plan for a Coastal Com- munity" — National Hurricane Research Project Report No. 28, April 1959, pre- pared by the Weather Bureau in collab- oration with the Corps of Engineers, U.S. Army. 9. "Description of Some Terms Used in Severe Winter Weather Warnings" — U.S. De- part of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bu- reau. 10. "Lightning" (With Safety Rules)— U.S. De- partment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. Hydrological Hazards 11. "The Storm Tide"— U.S. Department of Com- merce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. (See sample on p. 104.) 12. "Coastal Flooding by Storm Tides"— U.S. De- partment of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. 13. "Notes on the Seismic Sea Wave Warning Sys- tem" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. 14. "Tsunami Notes" — U.S. Department of Com- merce, ESSA, Coast and Geodetic Survey. 15. "There's Still a Killer Way Out West"— U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Coast and Geodetic Survey. (See sample on p. 105.) 16. "Neshaminy Valley Flood Warning System" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau, 1958. 17. "The Weather Bureau and Water Manage- ment" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau, 1965. 18. "Flash Flood Warning System for Canton, Ohio" — Compiled by the Department of Public Service, Canton, Ohio, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau, 1964. 19. "Flood Warnings (General Plan of Ac- tion)" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. (In process.) 20. "General Summary of Flood Losses for 1960" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. 21. "General Summary of Flood Losses for 1963" — U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. 22. "Hydrology and the Story of a Flood"— U.S. Department of Commerce, ESSA, Weather Bureau, April 1964. 23. "An Earthquake's Worst Killer May Come From the Sea !" — U.S. Department of Com- merce, ESSA, Coast and Geodetic Survey. Communications 24. "Emergency Broadcast System Plan" — (FG- E-4.1) Federal Communications Commis- sion, the Department of Defense ( Office of Civil Defense), and the Office of Emer- gency Planning. 25. "Federal Disaster Assistance" — Natural Dis- aster Assistance, Office of Emergency Plan- ning, Executive Office of the President,. 26. "Broadcasting Stations Operating 24 Hours Daily" — Federal Communications Com- mission, July 1, 1965. 27. "FCC Rules Covering Emergency Weather Warning and Operation During an Emer- gency (AM-FM-TV Stations)— Federal Communications Commission. 28. "List of Broadcast Stations Authorized To Operate in the Emergency Broadcast Sys- tem Plan" — Federal Communications Com- mission, June 1, 1965. 29. "Amendment to Communications Act of 1934 (Section 320)" — Federal Communications Commission. 99 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WEATHER BUREAU Community Action Against Tornadoes DOES EVERY TOWN NEED PROTECTION FROM TORNADOES ? Any town can be struck by tornadoes. Advance action can save lives and reduce public alarm. Severe local storms, such as tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms and heavy hail usually cover such a small area that a dense network of storm reporters is needed if effective warnings are to be issued for individual communities in a storm's path. The Weather Bureau has over 494 such networks organized to report dangerous storms and could use more. The reports form the basis for public warnings which have been credited with saving lives on numerous occasions WHAT CAN OUR TOWN DO ABOUT TORNADOES ? Organize a local reporting and warning network. Communities are encouraged to develop their own networks, with reports being furnished a local police department, fire sta'tion, or telephone office equipped to warn residents. Many communities have such a reporting and warning system, particularly in states where tornadoes occur each year. Each network includes volunteer groups best adapted to the needs of the area being served. In some localities quadrants of trained observers, located about two miles apart, are established around the area to be protected, with the heaviest concentration of observers being to the southwest. In other areas having smaller populations, everyone is part of the network and anyone who sees a tornado, or other dangerous storm, reports it promptly to the nearest Weather Bureau office. HOW ? By having everyone living within 20 miles understand that they should PROMPTLY report any tornado they observe to a community warning center. The networks over the country as a whole are made up of thousands of public-spirited citizens and organizations who promptly report dangerous weather conditions to the nearest Weather Bureau office. These volunteers are the backbone of the warning service and their faithful service, without compensation, is of great value in the Weather Bureau tornado warning service, Network observers and the public are alerted to the possibility of dangerous weather by the severe weather forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau. Through receipt of these forecasts, observers are alerted to notify the Weather Bureau as soon as a storm is sighted, describing the type of storm, its location, intensity and direction of movement. WHAT IS A COMMUNITY WARNING CENTER ? An office that is open all the time, such as the police station, or telephone office can be designated as a Community Warning Center. All reports of approaching tornadoes are furnished to, and local warnings are issued from this designated Center. FEB. 1964 L . S- 6 4 04 789-862 O— 65— 8 101 WHAT ELSE SHOULD A WARNING CENTER DO ? 1. Notify any nearby towns in the path of the tornado. 2. Telephone the nearest Weather Bureau office "collect" so that other areas can be warned. Since only a few minutes advance warning may be possible at times, it is important that everyone decide in advance what safety precautions are to be taken in an emergency. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A TORNADO IS REPORTED ? A prearranged alarm is sounded. It can be the City Fire Siren or Civil Defense Siren. Farmers in the storm's path are notified by telephone. In towns, radio and television stations can also broadcast the alarm. When a storm report is received at a Weather Bureau office, forecasters are able, with the aid of weather charts, to determine which direction the storm will move during the next few hours. Warnings are then promptly furnished to radio and television stations and other public outlets reaching people in the danger area. HOW CAN THE WARNING NETWORK BE KEPT ACTIVE ? By having trial runs at intervals and by public reminders. This will insure a trained active unit. In spite of all efforts to have successful networks, there is always a chance that a tornado may not be detected by a network observer or that a report will not get through to the Weather Bureau. HOW TO RECOGNIZE A TORNADO . A tornado is usually seen as a dark funnel-shaped cloud, spinning rapidly and extending toward the earth from the base of a thundercloud. When near by, a tornado sounds like the roar from hundreds of airplanes. Even though' a funnel-shaped cloud may hang down from a larger cloud, as occasionally happens when the sky is threatening, it is not a tornado unless it has the rapidly-rotating motion. WHAT SHOULD PEOPLE DO WHEN THEY HEAR THE TORNADO SIGNAL OR ALARM ? Take cover at once in a safe shelter, preferably underground. WHERE CAN WE GET A SUPPLY OF TORNADO SAFETY RULES ? The nearest Weather Bureau office has copies which you can reproduce and distribute, or you can order from the Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C. for $1.50 a hundred. 102 _ __ .-.,_..„ wjBwwsn: ™m WHEN A HURRICANE THREATENS JW** ^ .^KSiWy KEEP YOUR RADIO OR TV 0N...AND LISTEN TO LATEST WEATHER BUREAU ADVICE TO SAVE YOUR LIFE AND POSSESSIONS BEFORE THE WIND AND FLOOD Have gas tank f i I led . . . check battery and tires, Have supply of drinking water. Stock up on foods that need no cooking or refrigeration. Have on hand flashlight, first aid kit, fire ex- tinguisher, battery- powered radio. Store all loose objects: toys, tools, trash cans, awnings, etc . Board or tape up all windows. Get away from low areas that may be swept by storm tides or floods. DURING THE STORM STAY INDOORS... Don't be fooled if the calm "eye" passes directly over. . . and don't be caught in the open when the hurricane winds resume from the OPPOSITE direction. Listen to your radio or TV for information from the Weather Bureau, Civil Defense, Red Cross, and other authorities. AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED DO NOT DRIVE unless necessary. Watch out for undermined pavement and broken power lines. Use extreme caution to prevent outbreak of fire, or injuries from falling objects. Report downed power wires, broken water or sewer pipes to proper authorities or nearest policeman. Use phone for emergencies only. Jammed switch- boards prevent emergency calls from going through . YOUR ABILITY TO MEET EMERGENCIES WILL INSPIRE AND HELP OTHERS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION WEATHER BUREAU HE STORM man- . ■ ,^-j****" " ' ■ •"- ■—*.•,•»•' pAAY BE A HURRICANE'S GREATEST KILLER TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES PROMPTLY WHEN THE WEATHER BUREAU ISSUES HURRICANE WARNINGS GET OUT OF LOW EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS WHEN WARNED TO DO SO... FLOODED ROADS, FALLEN TREES AND POWER LINES AND OTHER STORM HAZARDS CAN BLOCK YOUR ESCAPE DON'T BE TRAPPED! EVACUATION INFORMATION YOU SHOULD HAVE: 1. SOURCE FOR OFFICIAL EVACUATION ADVICE: 2. HEIGHT OF YOUR STREET ABOVE SEA LEVEL: 3. LOCATION OF SAFE SHELTER: KEEP TUNED TO YOUR RADIO OR TV STATION FOR LATEST ADVICE FROM THE WEATHER BUREAU U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 4. MAP YOUR EVACUATION ROUTE (avoid low places that will flood early): WEATHER BUREAU There's still a killer way out west When this killer stalks your town, the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey's Seismic Sea-Wave Warning System will try to save your life. But you must help. Before the tsunami arrives Evacuate areas as directed by com- petent authority. Do not go to the beach to watch the waves come in. When you can see a large wave from the beach it is too late to escape it. Boat owners should move their craft into deep, open water, where they will be safe from destructive waves. During the tsunami Remain in a safe area until the entire series of waves has passed. Except in areas near the source of the tsunami, the first wave is seldom the largest. The most destructive waves may come one-to-three hours after the tsunami has begun. After the tsunami Stay out of the disaster area unless otherwise directed by Civil Defense and other emergency forces. Give these forces what help you can. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Coast and Geodetic Survey Keep your radio or television on during the emergency. The latest tsunami bulletins can save your life. C. Definitions ; and Communications Methods The terms listed in this appendix are used in this Report with the meanings shown below : Agency Responsibility. — The responsibility of an agency with statutory authority to provide services to the public in connection with warn- ings and alleviation of the effects of natural disasters. Advisory (Hydrologic). — When used as "Head- water Advisory," indicates the amount of rain- fall necessary to cause flooding at specific lo- cations ; (Hurricane). — A formal advisory message from a Weather Bureau Hurricane Warning Center giving warning information along with de- tails on tropical cyclone location, intensity, and movement and precautions that should be taken. When pertinent, the advisory contains information on specific coastal warnings for which visual displays (flags, pennants or lights) are made. (Tsunami).- — A message issued, upon detection of a major earthquake in the Pacific Ocean either prior to or subsequent to a Tsunami Warning, including information on the epi- central location of an earthquake, its magni- tude, wave heights, estimated times of arrival of a possible tsunami at various places, and other information as available. ATI-Clear Statement. — Weather Bureau releases, distributed by all offices that have made pub- lic distribution of a severe weather forecast or warning, to indicate that the threat has ended. Blizzard. — Generally used to indicate that the fol- lowing conditions are expected to prevail for an extended period: (a) windspeed of 35 m.p.h. or more ; (b) considerable falling and/ or blowing snow; (c) temperatures of 20° (F.) or lower; and (d) low visibilities. If any or all of the criteria are expected to be greatly exceeded, the term "severe" is used. Bulletin (Hurricane). — A public release for press, radio, and television dissemination from a Weather Bureau Hurricane Warning Center, issued at times other than those when Hurri- cane Advisories are required. The bulletin is similar in form to the advisory except for a greater amount of general newsworthy infor- mation. The bulletin will routinely include a resume of all warnings in effect. (Winter Storms). — A public release from the Weather Bureau for press, radio, and televi- sion dissemination, containing information on the movement and development of the storm and the extent, intensity, and probable dura- tion of associated severe weather. (Hydrological). — A public release for press, ra- dio, and television dissemination from the Weather Bureau, containing information on (1) Daily River Stage and Forecast, (2) Flood Potential, (3) River Flood, or (4) River Ice. Clear-Air Turbulence. — "Bumpiness" sometimes encountered by aircraft when flying through air devoid of clouds. Regions of moderate or severe clear-air turbulence occupy fairly large volumes of the atmosphere and persist for many hours. Cold Wave. — A rapid fall in temperature, over a period of 24 hours or less, which will require substantially increased protection to agricul- ture, industry, cars, homes, etc. The tempera-^ ture falls which require warnings to be issued vary throughout the country and with the season. If very drastic changes are expected to occur, the qualifying term "severe" is used. Duststorm (or Sandstorm) . — A condition during which visibility of one-fourth mile or less and windspeeds of 30 m.p.h. or more prevail over a widespread area. False-Rumor Statement. — A release to the public to clarify false rumors of severe local storms. Fire-Weather Forecast. — -Localized forecast pre- pared for a relatively small area, containing detailed information about meteorological elements that have the greatest influence on fire occurrence, behavior, and control in the area. Fire-Weather Warning. — A regular or special fire- weather forecast concerning weather expect- ed to result in a marked increase to higher or extreme danger of fire in forest or range area due to dryness accompanied by considerable lightning strikes or man-caused ignition. Flash Food. — A flood peak occurring within min- utes or a very few hours after the occurrence of heavy rainful. Flood. — A rise of a river or stream above its na- tural banks. As used in this Report, the term refers to flooding along main stems of rivers, and their tributaries. Forecast (Meteorological). — A statement of ex- pected meteorological conditions for a specific period, and for a specified area. (Hydrological). — A statement of expected flood stage, river stage, or water supply. Funnel Cloud. — The visible condensed moisture in a tornado, depending from the parent cloud. Gale Warning. — A warning of wind within the range 39 to 54 m.p.h. (34 to 47 knots). Hazardous Driving. — Conditions that will con- tribute to making driving a vehicle difficult, such as falling or blowing snow, fog, freezing rain or drizzle, or strong winds. 106 Heavy Snow. — A fall of 4 inches or more in 12 hours, or 6 inches or more in 24 hours. (Slightly higher limits may be used in areas where snowfall is a frequent occurrence, and slightly lower limits where snowfall is rather rare.) Hurricane. — A marked barometric depression, anomalous to the surrounding atmospheric circulation, originating and developing over tropical waters, with wind strength in some portion sustained at 74 m.p.h. or more. ( "Hur- ricane" is used in the North Atlantic, Carib- bean, Gulf, and Eastern Pacific ; "Typhoon" in the Western Pacific and the Far East, except for "Baguio" in the Philippines ; "Cyclone" in India; and "Willy-willy" in Australia.) Hurricane Warning. — A warning that one or more of the following dangerous effects of a hurri- cane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less : (a) Hurricane-force winds (74 m.p.h. or more) ; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurri- cane force at that location. Hurricane Watch. — An announcement for specific areas that a hurricane or incipient hurricane condition poses a threat to coastal and inland communities that makes it important for people to take stock of their preparedness re- quirements, keep abreast of the latest advis- ories and bulletins and be ready for quick action in case a hurricane warning is issued. Hydrologic(al). — Kef erring to water, its prop- erties, phenomena, and distribution on the surface, in the subsurface and in the at- mosphere. Ice Storm (Or Freezing Rain, or Freezing Driz- zle, or Glaze Storm). — The freezing of liquid precipitation on surfaces or objects with sub- freezing temperatures, resulting in a coating of ice on the ground, streets and sidewalks, trees, buildings, wires, etc. "Heavy Ice Storm" is used when great damage is expect- ed from falling trees, wires etc. Intensity. — The degree of shaking at a specified place caused by an earthquake; based not on measurement but on a rating assigned by an experienced observer using a descriptive scale with grades indicated by Roman numerals I to XII. Ionosphere. — The region in the earth's atmosphere from roughly 60 to 80 kilometers up to 500 or more kilometers where the electron density is high enough to have important effects, on radio waves. The free electrons, which in- teract with radio waves to cause both desired and nondesired effects, are produced by solar radiation acting on the various constituents of the upper atmosphere. Ionospheric Disturbance. — A wide variety of phenomena, usually intensified by solar flares, in which the electron density in the ionosphere is abnormal, producing radio interference. One of the more dramatic types of ionospheric disturbances is the polar cap absorption. Local Statement. — A public release prepared by an office discharging agency responsibility in or near an area threatened by a natural hazard, giving specific details on conditions that will be felt locally, areas that should be evacuated and other precautions necessary in the local area to protect life and property. Magnitude. — A rating of a given earthquake inde- pendent of the place of observation, calcu- lated from measurements on seismograms, ex- pressed in Arabic numbers and decimals. Marine Weather Warnings. — Warnings of severe weather conditions in (1) high-seas areas, (2) coastal areas, or (3) the Great Lakes, that will endanger shipping or boating of the kind using those waters. Outlook (Hydrologic). — A generalized forecast of minimum flow conditions to be expected on the major rivers in a 2-week period; usually incorporates the 30-day precipitation outlook ; the term is also used to reflect flood potential that may be expected from snow melt, e.g., "Flood Potential Outlook." (Severe Local Storms) — "Convective Outlook". — A written summary containing technical in- formation about the possibility of future severe local storm development up to 24 hours in advance, issued daily as advice to forecast offices to elicit their concentration on the pos- sibilities; and to assist all offices to plan for any necessary additional staffing and other arrangements to respond to service overload in event of severe local storms. (Tropical Weather Outlook). — Issued daily during the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf areas (June- November) ; during quiet periods, provides assurance that conditions are stable; during incipient periods, provides a day or two of advance notice of a probable tropical disturb- ance dangerous to small craft ; and during periods when a tropical disturbance or hur- ricane is in one or more of the areas mentioned, may, if the indications are sufficiently defi- nite, indicate in general terms the areas that appear to be under no future threat. Outdoor Warning Device. — A visible or audible signal to attract the attention of the public in an area, such as flags, bells, sirens, etc. By prearrangement, the signal may also provide information, such as the character of the threat, or the action that should be taken. Polar Gap Absorption. — A special type of iono- spheric disturbance in which solar protons are focused by the earth's magnetic field into the higher latitudes, disturbing the ionosphere drastically, and causing an almost complete lack of usable high frequency radio signals in polar areas. This type of disturbance is pro- duced by the more intense solar flares. 107 Positive Alerting. — Mass activation, by standard- ized selective remote means of control, or sig- naling or communicating equipment to attract and retain attention for the purpose of warn- ing of a threat to life and/or property. Provisional Warning (Winter Weather). — A part of the regular forecast or the subject of a special bulletin advising the public of the pos- sibility of the development of severe weather conditions and placing the public on guard until a precise warning can be issued. (Seiches). — An issuance stating that possible seiche conditions exist, giving expected times of the rise and fall of water levels for a spe- cific area. Radar. — -A radio detecting device that emits and focuses a powerful scanning beam of ultrahigh frequency waves and establishes through re- ception and timing of reflected waves the dis- tance, altitude, and direction of motion of any object in the path of the beam. River Flood. — (See Flood.) Sandstorm. — ( See Duststorm. ) Sea Condition. — A description of the wind-gen- erated waves on the surface of the sea. Seiche.— Free oscillation of an enclosed body of water. Severe Local Storm. — A dangerous storm that usually covers a relatively small geographical area or moves in a narrow path, and is of suf- ficient intensity to threaten life or property, e.g., tornado, or thunderstorm accompanied by severe lightning, heavy hail, and/or strong wind. Severe Local Storm Warning Netivork. — A re- porting system consisting of mobile groups and strategically located, nonpaid observers who report promptly the occurrence of severe local storms as a basis for issuing public warn- ings. Severe Thunderstorm. — Frequent lightning and (1) damaging wind, with localized surface gusts greater than 75 m.p.h. and/or (2) hail at the surface measuring three- fourth inch in diameter or more. Severe Weather Forecast. — A Weather Bureau forecast for distribution to the public, con- taining information that the occurrence of severe thunderstorm (s) and/or tornado (es) is expected. Severe Weather Statement. — A release distributed by a Weather Bureau office (that has made public distribution of a Severe Weather Fore- cast or Warning) to provide information about new developments or lack of develop- ments. Severe Weather Warning. — A release issued by a local office to warn the public of the approach of severe local weather conditions already in existence or imminent. Sheet Ice (Sea, Ice, Field Ice). — Ice caused by the freezing of the salt water of an ocean, sea, bay or estuary. Special Weather Bulletin (Seiches). — An issuance stating seiche conditions that have occurred, with additional information as to the possi- bility of further seiche activity. Statement (Winter Storms). — A release issued to the public by a local Weather Bureau office, normally as a supplement to a bulletin. Is- sued at short intervals of time (2 to 3 hours) to keep the public abreast of the latest actual weather conditions and including a more local- ized description of the severe weather in the area for which the office provides forecasts and warnings. Storm Surge ( Storm Tide ) . — The storm tide is the observed tide during a storm. It is the com- bination of the normal astronomical tide which would occur in the absence of the storm, plus the height of the wind driven water generated by the storm itself. Tornado. — A violently rotating column of air, with attendant funnel cloud, extending down- ward from a thunderstorm cloud, and travel- ing along with it ; when and as it contacts the ground, there is great destruction along its path, a few yards to more than a quarter of a mile in width. Tsunami.- — A series of long-period gravity waves infrequently generated by earthquakes or by volcanic explosions in or under the ocean. Typhoon. — ( See Hurricane. ) Warning. — Information on an existing or impend- ing natural hazard. Watch. — ( See Hurricane Watch. ) Whole Gale Warning. — A warning of wind within the range of 55 to 73 m.p.h. (48 to 63 knots) . Table C/l. — Communications methods, by cla*s A. Teletypewriter Al. Direct line. A teletypewriter line between two points or offices for the delivery or exchange of information. A2. A, C, and Networks A Network. A nationwide weather teletype- writer system, used primarily for collection of ob- servations from more than 600 stations and dis- semination to about 3,000 users, including mass users of domestic operational aviation weather reports, forecasts, pilot reports, and Xotices to Airmen within the conterminous United States. C Network. A nationwide weather teletype- writer system used for collecting basic weather measurements from all over the country and then later used for the distribution of all types of do- mestic weather forecasts derived from the basic data. River height forecasts are also carried on Service C. Network. The United States' portion of the International Northern Hemisphere Exchange Network (teletypewriter) established for the in- ternational exchange of basic meteorological in- formation. 108 A3. Public Dissemination Network a. Area. A teletypewriter network connecting users such as newspapers, police, public utility companies, and radio and television stations with Weather Bureau offices which send weather infor- mation and forecasts to them for further dis- semination to the public. There are about 10 net- works located throughout the United States, some covering an entire State and others covering parts of several States. b. Local. A teletypewriter network connecting local users and the local Weather Bureau office which furnishes hourly data and local forecasts for broadcast by radio and television, and for publication by newspapers. There are about 90 of these local networks originating at Weather Bureau offices in the large cities of the United States. A4. Radar Report and Warning Coordination (RAW ARC) System. A teletypewriter system composed of three circuits, controlled at Kansas City, connecting most of the Weather Bureau of- fices east of the Eocky Mountains; established primarily for handling radar and hydrological re- ports and other traffic essential to the weather and hydrological warning services. A5. Commercial (TWX, TELEX, etc.). Com- mercial companies such as Bell System (TWX), and Western Union (TELEX) will send messages nationwide (TWX) or worldwide (TELEX) or will lease the equipment to anyone wanting to com- municate directly through the system. A6. AP, UPI. AP (Associated Press), UPI (United Press International) are national net- works that carry local, domestic, and world news to the nation's newspapers and radio and televi- sion stations. They are the principal means by which weather forecasts and warnings are even- tually delivered to every community in America. A7. FAA-AFTN. An integrated system of aeronautical fixed circuits (both radio and land- line) used for the exchange of messages between aeronautical fixed communications stations. A8. Coast Guard. A selective teletypewriter signaling network along the east and west coasts connecting Coast Guard stations, Coast Guard District Offices, and Coast Guard radio stations for the rapid collection and dissemination of search and rescue information. A9. NACOM 1 Network. The NACOM 1 Net- work (National Communications System) is a tele- typewriter/telephone landline system that is used by the OCD for direction and control communica- tions with its eight Regions and the 50 State Civil Defense headquarters. B. Telephone Bl. Direct Line. A pick-up-to-ring- and-talk (no dialing) telephone connection between, for ex- ample, hurricane or tornado forecasting offices, used to discuss and coordinate the issuance of a warning or other urgent matters. B2. Automatic {WE 6-1212). A recorded and updated forecast available over any telephone in 14 large metropolitan areas by dialing. The Weather Bureau provides the forecasts, and adds warnings as necessary, and the telephone company provides the equipment and makes the recording. B3. Commercial. The voice communications facilities of any licensed common carrier, whether a leased circuit or a message switching facility. B4. NACOM 1 Network. (See A9.) B5. NAWAS. The NA WAS (National Warn- ing System) is a party-line voice system designed for transmission of attack warning information to approximately 1,000 warning points, alternates, and extensions currently on the system. The at- tack warning messages transmitted over this sys- tem originate at the OCD National Warning Cen- ters and are transmitted to the State warning points and to selected local (political) jurisdic- tions within the States. C. Telegraph crnd Cable Cl. Commercial Telegra/ph. Western Union offers a "CND" service (Commercial News De- partment), routinely furnishing sports results, weather reports, stocks, bond and commodity prices, etc., by telegram or direct teletypewriter. When a severe weather warning is issued, the Weather Bureau office notifies Western Union who in turn alerts the appropriate set of communities in accordance with a list previously furnished. C2. Commercial Cable. The facilities of com- mercial carriers employing marine wire cable be- tween continents. D. Radio Dl. Continuous L/MF Broadcast. The con- tinuous transmission on frequencies between 30 and 3000 kc. over distances beyond line of sight, such as the FAA continuous broadcast of flying conditions and weather warnings in relation to fly- ing conditions on 200^00 kc/s. D2. Continuous VHF Radio Transmission. A localized continuous radio transmission with line- of-sight coverage of about 50 miles. D3. Commercial. Any private radio transmit- ting station licensed by the FCC and operated for profit. D4. Commercial, by special live broadcast by teaming agency. Direct voice communication from a person whose duty it is to issue a warning; upon receipt of a specified signal, the radio station patches or switches the voice into the broadcast equipment for direct transmission on the air. D5. HF. Transmission by radio (usually point- to-point) over long distances beyond line of sight. D6. NACOM 2 Network (Voice and/ or CW). The NACOM 2 Network is a voice teletypewriter and radio back-up to NACOM 1 Network (A9 and B4) in the event of disruption of NACOM 1 fa- cilities. D7. Coast Guard. A system of MF and HF voice and CW radio broadcasts originating from Coast Guard radio stations on the Atlantic, gulf, and Pacific coasts (including Alaska), Hawaii, Guam, and the Great Lakes (voice broadcast only) . A regularly scheduled Marine Information Broad- 109 cast is announced on 500 kc/s and 2182 kc/s. (The maritime mobile calling and distress frequencies for radiotelegraphy and radiotelephony, respec- tively. ) The announcement includes the frequency on which the actual broadcast will be made — a Coast Guard medium frequency for CW 6r 2670 kc. for voice. Special broadcasts are made upon receipt of the information from the Weather Bureau when the urgency warrants. The broadcasts may be pre- ceded by the URGENCY or SAFETY signal and may be made initially on 500 kc. and 2182 kc. in order to alert as many vessels and small craft as possible. D8. Amateur. Radio transmission within cer- tain arranged frequency bands, carried on as a hobby by amateur operators licensed by the FCC. D9. Private Netxoorks. Localized radio net- works of low power used for the expeditious han- dling of a task such as fighting fires, dispatching taxicabs, etc. D10. ARINC. Aeronautical Radio Incorporat- ed has a nationwide network of VHF radio com- munications. Airline pilots give weather reports and any changes in flying conditions to the near- est ARINC station, which in turn keeps the pilots informed. Dll. FAA-ATS. FAA-Air Traffic Service radio transmissions of weather and flight condi- tions to aircraft from Flight Service Stations on published frequencies. D12. Other Federal and State Communication Systems. Communication systems of Federal and State agencies used to carry out their assigned duties and responsibilites, i.e. Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, Bonneville Power Ad- ministration, State of California, State of Penn- sylvania, Navy, and others. E. Facsimile El. National Weather Facsimile Network. The basic facsimile network serving meteorological of- fices of the Weather Bureau, other Government agencies, airlines, commercial meteorologists, and military installations. Extends throughout the United States with connections into Canada and to Alaska. E2. High Altitude Weather Facsimile Net-work. A facsimile network, basically for international aviation, which serves Weather Bureau, Airline Dispatch, and Military Offices. The network pro- vides for a coordinated program in which a limit- ed number of Main Meteorolgical Offices prepare area forecasts of upper winds, temperatures, and significant weather. The network of the conter- minous States interconnects with Alaska Net, Canadian Net, and international networks. E3. Forecast Center Facsimile Network a. From the National Meteorological Center. Provides the longer-range guidance charts and meteorological tools required by the major fore- cast centers. b. From the Tropical Meteorological Center. Provides basic meteorological charts and Hur- ricane information over the area 120° W. to 30° W. and 45° N. to 10° S. F. Radioteletypewriter Fl. FAA-AFTN. An integrated system of radioteletypewriter circuits forming a part of the aeronautical fixed service, for the exchange of messages between aeronautical fixed stations. F2. Commercial-radioteletypewriter circuits op- erated by private companies. F3. NACOM 2. The NACOM 2 (National Communications System) network is a voice, tele- typewriter, and radio backup to the NACOM 1 Network (A9). G. Radiofacsimile Gl. Weather Bureau. Radio transmitting/re- ceiving facilities of commercial common carriers, leased by the Weather Bureau. G2. Coast Guard. U.S. Coast Guard radiofac- simile. A daily multiple-frequency radiofacsimile broadcast during the ice season, showing the limits of all ice, the area of many icebergs, and the posi- tions of individual icebergs between those two limits. G3. Other Federal Government. Radiofacsim- ile of other Federal agencies such as FAA. NASA, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and U.S. Army. H. N ewspapers Hi. A mass dissemination medium for warning when disastrous situations are not going to occur for a number of hours. I. Television 11. Commercial TV. Any television transmit- ting station licensed by the FCC, operated for profit. 12. Commerci-al, by Special Live Broadcast by Warning Agency. Direct voice communication from a person whose duty it is to issue a warning: may include visual presentation as well: the tele- vision station will connect the broadcast equipment for direct transmission. J. Compound or Unspecified Jl. State Communications Sj^stems. J2. NASA Facilities. J3. DCA Facilities. J4. All other Federal Agency Communications Networks and Facilities. J5. Foreign Government Communications Fa- cilities. K. Signals and Contacts Kl. Flags. K2. Lights. K3. Flares. K4. Signs. K5. Fixed Sirens. K6. Person-to-person (house to house). K7. Loud nailers, Public Address Systems. K8. Mobile Sirens. K9. Bells. 110 SIGNALS (General) . Kl through K9 are the such as flares or loud hailers and/or signs mounted various means which many agencies have found on aircraft might be utilized to alert very small advantageous for the purpose of alerting a local percentages of the local populace such as people populace. Some of these means would alert a living in outlying areas or people off shore or at large percentage of the local populace (fixed sea who might not hear a siren or might not have sirens, lights, or bells). Others of these means radio facilities. Ill D. Natural Disaster Warning Survey Group List of Members, Alternates, and Other Major Participants Department of Commerce, Environmental Science Services Administration: Central Radio Propagation Laboratory Coast and Geodetic Survey Weather Bureau Department of Defense: Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army. Office of Civil Defense Federal Communications Commission Office of Emergency Planning U.S. Coast Guard Bureau of the Budget Member Roger Olson. Mark G. Spaeth. Paul H. Kutschenreuter, Chairman. Mark Gurnee John W. McConnell Neal McNaughton Charles Beal Captain Charles Dorian. (Hilary Rauch participated as observer.) Alternate Samuel Zeitlen. Charles Shafer. Leo Haijsman. Thomas Casey. Others who participated to a major extent in the work of the NADWAS Group include Messrs. Kenneth J. Christenson and Charles Cheatham, Office of Civil Defense ; James Clark and Carleton Gray, Corps of Engineers; James P. Dokken, Of- fice of Emergency Planning; Lt. Comdr. Swain L. Wilson, U.S. Coast Guard; and William E. Hiatt, Edward M. Vernon, John S. Straiton, Ralph F. Kresge, Vaughn D. Rockney, Lynn L. Means, Robert E. Helbush, Philip A. Calabrese, and Marshall M. Richards, Department of Com- merce, ESSA, Weather Bureau. Technical Secretary, Robert W. Craig, ESSA; Secretary, Mrs. Norma P. Landis, ESSA ; Graph- ics, John Smiles, ESSA, and Exum Roberts, ESSA. 113 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1965 O — 789-862 < *«°'«\ a \ Vol'' Jf PE 1!, N .?7, A . TE UNIVE RSITY LIBRARIES mini 1 1 iiiiii AOOOOTDIMmsi