NOAATM NWS FCST-17 A UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PUBLICATION ¥ NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS FCST-17 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Office of Meteorological Operations Weather Analysis and Prediction Division SILVER SPRING, MD. March 1972 National Weather Service May 1970— April 1971 Public Forecast Verification Summary ROBERT G. DEROUIN AND GERALDINE F. COBB NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA National Weather Service, Weather Analysis and Prediction Division Series The Weather Analysis and Prediction Division of the Office of Meteorological Operations is specifically responsible for the management of forecasting services for the public, aviation, marine, agriculture, and fire weather interests. NOAA Technical Memoranda in the Weather Analysis and Prediction Division series com- municate scientific and technical information relating to field forecasting operations. The series includes information on present techniques, procedures, and performance data. Background information and detail on selected service operations are also given. The series provides a means for the personnel in the National Weather Service Headquarters and Regional Offices to report on fore- casting methods of general interest and wide application. NOAA Technical Memoranda in the Weather Analysis and Prediction Division series facilitate rapid distribution of material which may be preliminary in nature and which may be published formally elsewhere at a later date. Publications 1 to 4 by this Division are in the former series, Weather Bureau Technical Notes (TN) , Notes to Forecasters (FCST); publications 5 to 15 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Weather Bureau Technical Memoranda (WBTM) . Beginning with FCST 16, publications are now part of the series, NOAA Technical Memoranda, National Weather Service (NWS) . Publications listed below are available from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Sills Bldg., 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Va. 22151. Price: $3.00 hard copy; $0.95 microfiche. Order by accession number shown in parentheses at end of each entry. Weather Bureau Technical Notes TN 8 FCST 1 On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts. Charles F. Roberts, September 1965. (PB-174 647) TN 13 FCST 2 Local Cloud and Precipitation Forecast Method (SLYH). Matthew H. Kulawiec, September 1965. (PB-168 610) TN 16 FCST 3 Present and Future Operational Numerical Prediction Models. Charles F. Roberts, October 1965. (PB-169 126) TN 23 FCST 4 Forecasting the Freezing Level Objectively as an Aid in Fore- casting the Level of Icing. Jack B. Cox, December 1965. (PB-169 247) ESSA Technical Memoranda WBTM FCST 5 Performance of the 6-Layer Baroclinic (Primitive Equation) Model. Julius Badner, September 1966. (PB-173 426) WBTM FCST 6 Forecasting Mountain Waves. Philip A. Calabrese, September 1966. (PB-174 648) WBTM FCST 7 A Method for Deriving Prediction of Soil Temperature From Medium- Range Weather Forecasts. Charles F. Roberts, June 1967. (PB-175 773) WBTM FCST 8 Recent Trends in the Accuracy and Quality of Weather Bureau Fore- casting Service. Charles F. Roberts and John M. Porter, November 1967. (PB-176 953) WBTM FCST 9 Report on the Forecast Performance of Selected Weather Bureau Offices for 1966-1967. C. F. Roberts, J. M. Porter, and G. F. Cobb, Decem- ber 1967. (PB-177 043) WBTM FCST 10 Size of Tornado Warning Area When Issued on Basis of Radar Hook Echo. Alexander Sadowski, May 1969. (PB-184 613) (Continued on inside back cover) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS FCST-17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAY 1970-APRIL 1971 PUBLIC FORECAST VERIFICATION SUMMARY Robert G. Derouin and Geraldine F. Cobb Office of Meteorological Operations Weather Analysis and Prediction Division SILVER SPRING, MD . March 1972 551 509 5 519 24(7 3) "1970. 05/1971. 04" 519 24 Statistics Statistical analysis 551 (73 .5 .509 ) 5 Meteorology Synoptic analysis and forecasting Forecast verification United States of America '1970.05/1971.04" May 1970 - April 1971 CONTENTS Page Abstract 1 1. Introduction 1 2 . Analysis of the verification data 1 3. Scores within echelons 2 4 . National scores by echelons 6 4.1 For 1970-71 6 4.2 From 1966-71 6 5 . Summary and conclusions 6 6 . Acknowledgments 13 References 14 Appendix: Condensed summary of results 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAY 1970-APRIL 1971 PUBLIC FORECAST VERIFICATION SUMMARY Robert G. Derouln and Geraldine F. Cobb ABSTRACT Performance scores for May 1970-April 1971 of guidance from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) , State forecasts (FPs) from the Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFOs) , and local forecasts from the Weather Service Offices (WSOs) are summarized. The small improvement by succeeding echelons is evident again, and most showed better scores than previous years. NMC had the best resolution for the second and third period precipitation forecasts. All echelons had a small bias of underf ore- casting temperatures for all periods. It is likely the improvement resulted, in part, from a change in the precipitation criteria in the primitive equation (PE) model, and from the new NMC objective temperature forecasts. Scores for individual stations and FP/NMC areas are provided so that local comparisons can be made in relation to the national level of like scores. 1 . INTRODUCTION A number of changes were made in the annual summary for this year. Philadelphia and Indianapolis became WSFOs while the number of WSOs in the local program decreased nationally. Summer and winter were changed from April-September and October -March to May-October and November- April , respectively, to coincide more closely with the convective and non- convective seasons. To help overcome the dry bias of the PE model, precipitation was allowed to occur at a relative humidity of 90% rather than 1007c. This change was made in September 1970 (Technical Procedures Bulletin No.. 55, 1970). Finally, NMC temperature guidance was provided entirely by computer forecasts beginning in April 1970 (Klein et al. 1969 and 1971). The rest of the verification program remained the same as two forecasts per day (based on the 0600Z and 1800Z surface maps) for three 12-hour periods (from 1200Z and 0000Z) were verified. These forecasts were stratified according to forecast period, WSFO area, and National Weather Service region. Complete information on the verification program is contained in the 1966 annual summary (Roberts et al. 1967). 2. ANALYSIS OF THE VERIFICATION DATA The data for 1970-71 were analyzed to try and answer questions such as these: a. How did scores of individual WSOs (those in the FP and/or local programs) and WSFO/NMC areas (representing 3 to 5 stations averaged together) compare with the overall or national level of like scores? b. How did the performance of newly established WSFOs compare with older WSFOs? c. What is the national level (Alaska not included) of skill in present-day precipitation and temperature forecasts? d. What skill is contributed to the public forecast by each of the forecast echelons? Stations in each WSFO/NMC area are shown in figure 1, while the measures and statistics of forecast errors are shown in table 1. All scores are summarized in the appendix. In using the scores it should be kept in mind that NMC temperature guidance was for the calendar day minimum and maximum and not, as is the case for precipitation guidance, for standard 12-hour periods. In most of the regions in the conterminous United States, the observed minimum (maximum) temperatures occur (or very nearly occur) in the 0000Z-1200Z (1200Z-0000Z) periods. An exception is the Western Region where many minimum temperatures occur after 1200Z. Thus, the verification of NMC temperatures in this region may show a larger bias than would normally be expected. 3. SCORES WITHIN ECHELONS Last years annual report (Derouin et al. 1971) showed detailed plottings of precipitation frequencies versus Brier Scores, and mean absolute temperature errors versus mean 24-hour temperature variabilities for the previous two summer and winter seasons. Quadratic curves given by ^=A PF(l-PF), and regression lines by TE=A0+A1 TV were fit to the precipitation and temperature samples, respectively. By using these plottings and performance data from the appendix, NMC and individual stations could check their skill on a national level. Values above (below) the curves and/or regression lines indicated less (more) than average skill. This year's report contains similar performance scores. Although plottings are not provided, they can be constructed easily by using the necessary data on pages 16 through 77. Stations are urged to conduct onstation studies using these data and also the data from the last year's report. Such studies, besides showing the relative ranking of the station, could lead to forecast improvement if a bias is found and efforts are made to eliminate it. u- O CO oo Table 1. --Forecast error measures and statistics Precipitation -, r>i4-- -n • • ,- - ■ f r.-n Total Precipitation Cases 1. Relative Precipitation Frequency: PF = — — - c v H J Total Forecasts 1 F / \ 2 2. Brier Score: B = - E I F. - 0.1, 0. = or 1 and F = total forecasts. F i=l V y 1 F / \ 2 3. Climatological Brier Score: BC = — Z ( C L -0 -) where C is long term climatology. 4. Percent Improvement of Brier Score _ BC - B over Long Term Climatology: BC 5. Sample Brier Score: BS = PF (1 - PF) 6. Percent Improvement of Brier Score _ BS - B . over Sample Climatology: BS 7. Estimated B for any PF: B = A PF (1 - PF) where A = quadratic constant TD C T> estimation given by least square estimate — ^^— (a bar represents (BS) 2 an average over the sample) . 1 P P 8. Mean Probability of Precipitation: MP = — Z F. where P = the number P i=1 X of precipitation cases and F. = probability forecast when precipitation was observed. F-P IN N 9. Mean Probability of No Precipitation: MN = -=r^; £ F. where F. 3 v F-P . , l i the probability forecast when precipitation was not observed. ,_ _ ' „ _ . _ __ Number of Correct Forecasts . cr . 10. Total Percent Correct: PC = - - - - — 7— s r using .50 Total Number of Forecasts probability as the threshold value. Table 1. Forecast error measures and statistics — continued Temperature 1 N 1. Mean Absolute Forecast Error: TE = — £ I T_ - T_ I where N = number N 1=1 1 F °| of forecasts. i N r \ 2. Mean Algebraic Forecast Error: TG = - I f T F " T ) 1 M 3. Mean Absolute 24-Hour Temperature Variability: TV = — E I T - T .1 i=l I 4. Percent Improvement of Mean Absolute Forecast Error over Mean 24-Hour Temperature Variability: TC = TV ~ TE X 100 /V 5. Estimated TE for any TV: TE = A0 + Al TV where A0 and Al = regression constants . 6. Mean Absolute Forecast Error When TV Exceeds 10 Degrees: TM = sum of mean absolute temperature errors when 24-hour observed temperature changes exceed 10 degrees, divided by the number of such errors. 7. Percent Temperature Errors in Classes: Tl = Less than 6 degrees = (number of 0- to 5- degree temperature errors) / (total number of temperature forecasts) T2 = 6-10 degrees = (number of 6- to 10- degree temperature errors) / (total number of temperature forecasts) T3 = 11-15 degrees = (number of 11- to 15- degree temperature errors) / (total number of temperature forecasts) T4 = Greater than 15 degrees = (number of greater-than- 15-degree temperature errors) / (total number of temperature forecasts) 4. NATIONAL SCORES BY ECHELONS 4.1 For 1970-71 The 1970-71 scores on a national level (pages 78 through 89 of the appendix) indicate that each succeeding echelon improved slightly over its guidance. An exception was the set of third period forecasts for summer. The results for this year differ little from previous years as the largest improvements occurred in the first period, during winter. Figures 2 and 3 show the echelon performance (using NMC as base) for precipitation and temperature forecasts, respectively. Each echelon made about the same number of forecasts except that NMC made 57o fewer for temperatures. This imbalance occurred because our summary included all FP stations even though a few of them did not receive NMC temperature guidance . Tables 2 and 3 show that probability forecasts had the poorest resolution during the summer and temperature forecasts the largest bias during the winter. It is interesting to note that 1) succeeding echelon improvement in resolution was evident beyond the first period for dry days only, and 2) that all echelons had a small bias of underf orecasting temperatures all periods. 4.2 From 1966 to 1971 The national comparisons of the echelons since 1966 are shown in figures 4 and 5 for the total correct (precipitation and no precipitation ) forecasts, and mean absolute temperature errors. Most of the echelons had better scores in 1970-71 than in previous years. (The data for the latter year were for May-April while those for previous years were for April- March. It is felt, however, that this slight discrepancy is not signi- ficant when comparing performances on a national level over the five years). It is likely that the improvement for the total correct forecasts was due in part to the change in the precipitation criteria in the PE model. Since temperature forecasts were not affected by this change, the small improvement shown by NMC was probably the result of the new objective temperature scheme. 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Scores for individual stations and FP/NMC areas have now been provided for three years. Stations are urged to use this sample to compare their performance in relation to national level of like scores. These comparisons could lead to forecast improvement if a bias is found and onstation attempts are made to eliminate it. The 1970-71 data show, as in previous years, forecast improvement on a national level by succeeding echelons. Probability forecasts had the poorest resolution during the summer, and temperature forecasts the largest bias during the winter. The echelons showed improvement in resolution beyond the first period for dry days only, and had a small bias of underf orecasting temperatures all periods. Most of the echelons CO I 2 T7777\ JZZZK o ** § CM v///> VM *?=? ^ Ea ^1 — **• CM CD T _ i § I i CO - : -v-i i """" oo 1 I i — CM <*> /_i: CD I 05 1 V/// 1 1 ^/ ^ v/// ^ Table 2. --Mean probability forecasts (%) for days when precipitation was observed and not observed 1970-71. Morning (0600Z) and afternoon (1800Z) forecasts were averaged over the conterminous United States May-October November -April Observed Not Observed Observed Not Observed NMC 42.1 16.3 NMC 49.2 15.7 Period 1 FP 43.1 14.0 Period 1 FP 52.9 12.6 Local 45.6 12.4 Local 57.2 10.7 NMC 36.2 16.1 NMC 44 . 3 17.0 Period 2 FP 35.5 14.2 Period 2 FP 44.1 14.0 Local 35.8 13.0 Local 44 . 7 12.5 NMC 31.5 15.5 NMC 39.0 17.0 Period 3 FP 30.0 14.0 Period 3 FP 37.6 14.2 Local 29.8 12.8 Local 37.9 12.7 10 Table 3. --Mean algebraic temperature errors (°F) 1970-71. Morning (0600Z) and afternoon (1800Z) forecasts were averaged over the conterminous United States May -October 1 November-April NMC -0.3 NMC -0.6 Period 1 FP -0.3 Period 1 FP -0.5 Local -0.2 Local -0.6 NMC -0.6 NMC -1.0 Period 2 FP -0.4 Period 2 FP -0.7 Local -0.2 Local -0.7 NMC -0.7 NMC -0.7 Period 3 FP -0.5 Period 3 FP -0.8 Local -0.4 Local -0.7 11 CO oo CM n o IW o en CJJ 4-1 09 >-l 0) -i O P O OO M-l ,-H en ■-— ' 3 c o o d C •H O •H 4-1 O a 03 C c 4-> S-< 0) •H CD 4J CX 4-) a •H U-l o u co o 0) M T3 0) O, C X CO 4-) o C /-> )-l IS] c o o CO v£> O t3 C ^ 01 o M ■H 00 ro 4-i d U CO -H (U +J d > •H }-i CO D- O •H S QJ O u (1) ,rH CO .H CO 4~> H CO CO M 3 o T3 o <4-l a) •H 4J ■U co •H cd 4-1 3 C co cO r=> w o W M a) 3 O M O M O 3 H IM •H 0) B 0) N 0) S-i O 4-1 3 O 3 ■u 00 O CO M CJ S-i OJ 0) a 3 ,3 O 4-1 a) O 4-1 3 u M a) cu OJ > ■U 4J o 3 "4-1 H CO x) O a) CO 13 oO ,a 3 CO CO cO M cd N CO d -o U ■H o 3 g •H oo U •H o OJ fr S a lf> ^ CO do noun] Bimosav nvjw 13 had better scores than in previous years. It is likely this improvement resulted, in part, from 1) lowering the precipitation criteria in the PE model from 100% to 90% relative humidity and, 2) the new NMC objective temperature forecasts. 6 . ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors express their thanks to William H. Klein and Harry R.Glahn of the National Weather Service's Techniques Development Laboratory, and Duane S. Cooley of the National Weather Service's Technical Procedures Branch for reviewing this report. Recognition is also due to Carol A. Peterson and Nora E. Keel for typing the report. 14 REFERENCES Derouin, R.G. , and Cobb, G. , "Weather Bureau April 1969-March 1970 Verification Report with Emphasis on Performance Scores Within Echelons," NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS FCST-16, April 1971, 72 pp. Klein, W. H. , Lewis, F. , and Casely, G.P., "Computer Forecasts of Maximum and Minimum Surface Temperatures," ESSA Technical Memorandum WBTM TDL 26, October 1969, 91 pp. ' Klein, W.H. , Lewis, F. , and Hammons, G.A., "Recent Developments in Automated Max/Min Temperature Forecasting," Journal of Applied Meteorology , Vol. 10, No. 5, October, 1971, pp. 916-920. Roberts, C.F. , Porter, J., and Cobb, G. , "Report on the Forecast Performance of Selected Weather Bureau Offices for 1966-67," ESSA Technical Memorandum WBTM FCST -9, December 1967, 52 pp. National Weather Service, "Latest Change and Summary of Current Pro- cedures in Precipitation Forecasting in the 6-Layer (PE) Numerical Prediction Model," Its Technical Procedures Bulletin No. 55, Silver Spring, Md., October 1970, 9 pp. 15 APPENDIX CONDENSED SUMMARY OF RESULTS All pages show data for 0600Z and 1800Z for three periods for summer and winter 1970-71. Pages 16 through 71 summarize the precipitation frequencies, Brier Score; mean absolute temperature errors, and mean 24-hour temperature variabilities for NMC, WSFOs , WSFO/NMC areas, and WSOs . Pages 72 through 77 summarize the constants and correlation coefficients for the precipitation quadratic curves and temperature regression lines. Pages 78 through 89 summarize the echelon verification data on a regional and national (Alaskan Region is not included) level. L6 cm irnf\ -h j- j> « r O CO IftMJ-vOlOl^CM- U_ ci*>c^o^ooiriCMv-*u\i'o.^OsicMror*-0"'THa*£>o^ Q. 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Charles F. Roberts, John M. Porter, and Geraldine F. Cobb, March 1969. (PB-184 366) WBTM FCST 12 Severe Local Storm Occurrences 1955-1967. Staff, SELS Unit, NSSFC, Maurice E. Pautz, Editor, September 1969. (PB-187 761) WBTM FCST 13 On the Problem of Developing Weather Forecasting Equations by Sta- tistical Methods. Charles F. Roberts, October 1969. (PB-187 796) WBTM FCST 14 Preliminary Results of an Empirical Study of Some Spectral Character- istics of Skill in Present Weather and Circulation Forecasts. Charles F. Roberts, November 1969. (PB-188 529) WBTM FCST 15 Weather Bureau Forecast Verification Scores 1968-69 and Some Per- formance Trends From 1966. Robert G. Derouin and Geraldine F. Cobb, May 1970. (PB-192 949) NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS FCST 16 Weather Bureau April 1969-March 1970 Verification Report With Special Emphasis on Performance Scores Within Echelons. Robert G. Derouin and Geraldine F. Cobb, April 1971. (COM-71-00555) PENN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES illinium ADD0D7E0m3MS