eso.3:e(st /C\ ^ATES O* * NOAA Climate Program Rockville, Maryland December 1977 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration a o NOAA Climate Program Rockville, Maryland December 1977 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Richard A. Frank, Administrator Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://archive.org/details/noaaclimateprogrOOunit EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The goal of a new U. S. program in climate is to help the Nation respond more effectively to climate-induced problems by enabling its government to be aware of or to anticipate climatic fluctuations and their domestic and international impacts and to identify man's impact and potential influence on regional and global climate. This goal is set forth in A United States Climate Program Plan . July 1977, by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology. NOAA will contribute toward this goal by developing and applying knowledge of the processes of climatic variability, assessing the effect of climate variability on human affairs, and by helping to evaluate man's impact and potential influence upon regional and global climate. To meet the national goal, major advances must be made in climate monitoring, analysis and theory, impact assessment, modeling, and information transfer. The elements of the NOAA Climate Program conform to the direction explicit in the U. S. Climate Program Plan and have been established to achieve these advances in concert with other participating agencies. Specifically, the NOAA program is comprised of: o Impact Assessment. o Climate Diagnosis and Projection. o Climate Research. o Observations. o Data Management. NOAA proposes to extend its climatic impact assessment effort to develop climate/yield models for certain major crops, climate/energy demand models for natural gas and other fuels, and climate/fisheries productivity models for certain important species. These applied research projects will be carried through the demonstration stage in cooperation with agencies whose missions are directly impacted by climate. Objectives of the NOAA program in the area of climate diagnosis and projection are as follows: o Develop and maintain current awareness of climate anomalies. o Conduct empirical analyses and diagnoses of climatic variations. o Improve monthly and seasonal outlooks. o Develop and provide interannual projections of seasonal anomalies. To meet these objectives, NOAA plans to establish a Center for Climatic Analysis and Projection, which would provide authoritative statements of climatic fluctuations and speed the results of applied research into improved climatic outlooks and impact assessments. Climate research is the wellspring from which major advances in understanding and predicting climate must flow. NOAA will make major contributions in numerical modeling of the climate system, in the conduct of field experiments to understand critical climate processes, and in attempts to simulate future climates. Proposed field experi- ments will concentrate on large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the research effort is designed to optimize the involvement of scientists from the university community. Improved observations are needed to provide early alerts of developing climatic fluctuations, to monitor the effects human activity may have on climate, and to stimulate and test new ideas on the working of climate. NOAA has primary responsibility for monitoring climate and climatic factors from operational satellites, from earth-based observatories, and from ocean platforms. The great quantity and variety of observations needed for climate research and services require development and implementation of a comprehensive climate data management structure and timely production of certain computerized core data. This is clearly a NOAA mission. Because of NOAA's general statutory responsibilities with regard to climate, the U. S. plan has recommended that the Department of Commerce, through NOAA, serve as the principal coordinating agency for planning and managing the U. S. Climate Program. Accordingly, a U. S. Climate Program Office will be established, building upon the National Climate Program Coordinating Office already established by NOAA in response to the recommendation of the U. S. Climate Program Plan. Further, since NOAA provides the U. S. Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organization, it will take the lead in coordinating U. S. climate activities with the World Climate Program. Other agencies specifically planning major contribu- tions to the U. S. Program include the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The U. S. Climate Program Office will take responsibility for compiling an annual report and an updated plan for the U. S. Climate Program. The Office also will compile coordinated and consolidated agency program and budget analyses and recommendations for climate research and services as required by Executive or Legislative direction. 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Execut i ve Summary i I . Background 1 II. The NOAA Climate Program 7 A. Impact Assessment 1. Objectives 10 2. Current Activities 11 3. Problems 12 4 . Proposed Approach 13 B. Climate Diagnosis and Projection 1. Objectives 18 2. Current Activities 19 3. Problems 20 4. Proposed Approach 21 C. Climate Research 1. Objectives 30 2. Current Activities 31 3. Problems and Proposed Approach 32 D. Observations 1. Objectives 49 2. Current Activities 51 3 . Problems 53 4. Proposed Approach 57 E. Data Management 1. Objectives 73 2. Current Activities 73 3. Problems 75 4 . Proposed Approach 82 III. Program Management and Coordination 91 List of Acronyms 93 in List of Tables TABLE TITLE PAGE 1. Fiscal Year 1978 NOAA Climate Program 4 2. Functions of the Climate Diagnostics Project 22 3. Observational Requirements for Climate Research 50 4. Summary of Sampling Programs at Mauna Loa 54 5. Space-Based Observations 62 6. Proposed Additional Global-Background Monitoring 64 7. Proposed Additional Regional Monitoring 66 8. Ocean-Based Observations 68 9. Shipboard Environmental Data Acquisition System 69 (SEAS) Measurement Capability 10. Deep-Ocean Moored Buoy Measurement Capability 70 11. Typical Daily Data Volumes (1974) and Satellite 76 Data Volumes 12. Satellite Sources of Level II Climate Data 81 13. Data Classes 83 14. Data Levels 84 15. Candidate Data Sets 89 IV CHAPTER I Background The Overall Problem and NOAA's Role The goal of a new U.S. program in climate is to help the Nation respond more effectively to climate-induced problems by enabling its government to be aware of or to anticipate climatic fluctuations and their domestic and international impacts and to identify man's impact and potential influence on regional and global climate. This goal is set forth in A United States Climate Program Plan . July 1977, by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology. The need for a concerted national effort is based on the fact that climate variations have a profound and ever-increasing effect on the world's food and fresh water supplies and energy requirements. The severe winter of 1976-1977 and drought in the western parts of this country have had serious and widespread effects on our national economy. Even minor fluctuations in climate, typical of those that have occurred without major repercussions in the past, may now lead to crises because of the ever-increasing demands of a burgeoning world population and rising levels of per capita consumption. It is also becoming increasingly evident that our energy-inten- sive, industrialized society is capable of and may in fact already be modifying the global climate through the emission of carbon dioxide, heat, and other pollutants. We must know more about the processes of climate and the causes of climate change, whether natural or inadvertent, so that climatically induced policies are scientifically well-founded and not unduly restrictive to the national economy. Our ability to measure quantitatively many significant parts of the climate machine has grown dramatically with the advent of new satellite and ocean technology. The new observational systems are producing data even now at a rate which the scientific community finds difficult to assimilate. The imaginative use of these techni- ques, together with continuing development, will be an important input to our awareness and understanding of climate. Recognizing the pervasiveness and long-range implications of the climate issue, the Administration, at the behest of the President's Science Advisor, established in 1 97-4 an interdepartmental committee to develop a national plan of action. The resulting United States Climate Program Plan, recently approved by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology, specifically identifies priority research and service needs in the following five categories: o Impact assessments of climatic variability on crop and fish yields, energy demand, land and water resources, transpor- tation, and other activities. o Diagnosis and projection of observed climate variations, particularly seasonal and interannual anomalies and fluctuations. o Research to gain basic understanding of natural climate vari- ability and of man's potential impact on climate, such as the long-term growth of carbon dioxide. o Observations by satellite and other means to help determine the earth's radiation budget, air composition, sea-air interac- tions, and other processes that play roles in climate variabil- ity. o Management of the vast array of measurements and derived service products needed for climate research and services — oceanic, atmospheric, hydrologic, solar, and other types of data. As the government agency specifically identified to provide climatological information and expertise, NOAA can and should play a major role in each of the above categories. Specifically, NOAA's role in each of the five categories is as follows: o Impact assessments of climatic variability -- NOAA should assist Federal agencies whose missions are impacted by climate by developing and demonstrating prototype assessment models and by providing specialized climate information on a continuing basis; the NOAA mission in fisheries management requires the full development, demonstration, and implementation of assessment models. o Diagnosis and projection of climate variations -- A major leadership role for NOAA with strong contribution from other agencies and the university community. o Research to understand climate change — A joint role for NOAA with the existing pool of talent in other government agencies and in the university community. o Climate observing system — The development and implementation of the global observing system should be a cooperative inter- national venture with the U.S. components being developed jointly by NOAA, NASA, DOD, universities, and private industry. Routine operation of the U.S. portion of the system should be primarily a NOAA responsibility. o Climate data management -- Operation of a national climatic data center is a main NOAA task. Current Status of NOAA Climate Activities The study of climate is not new to NOAA. Several activities among its research and service components can be directed immediately toward meeting priority requirements in each of the above five categories. Table 1 provides a summary of present NOAA activities that apply directly to the Climate Program. A more detailed discussion of the status of NOAA activities relating to the five categories of priority requirements is given in the appropriate sections of Chapter II. In addition to those items listed in Table 1, which constitute the specific elements of NOAA's FY 1978 Climate Program, there are numerous more-generalized activities being conducted throughout NOAA that contribute in a very real sense to our understanding of climate variability and its impact on society. For example, the National Weather Service (NWS) acquires atmospher- ic and sea-surface data through an intricate observing network of surface weather stations, upper air probes, weather radars, and links with satellites to provide essential forecasts for aviation, agriculture, fire prevention planning, air pollution warning, marine weather, and river and flood level warning. The NWS is the primary interface with the public on weather and climate outlooks. The National Environmental Satellite Service (NESS) operates the system of environmental satellites to provide global cloud-cover imagery, atmospheric and sea-surface temperature data, winds from geostationary satellites, radiative heat budget, snow and ice coverage charts, and other interpretive products. Records of sea level fluctuation are also an important source of climate data and are derived from tidal information collected by the National Ocean Survey (NOS), which operates a continuous control network of 135 tide stations along the coasts of the United States, the Great Lakes, Puerto Rico, and other U.S. trust territories and possessions. The Office of Ocean Engineering (00E) , through its Data Buoy Office, develops and operates deep-ocean-moored environmental data buoys that provide climatically important, continuous time series of meteorological and oceanic measurements. 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NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories (ERL) conduct basic studies of climate-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes. Several of its laboratories have significant climate-related research programs. This brief summary demonstrates a substantial NOAA mission in climate. The activities described impinge on each of the major elements of the National Plan. A number of other Federal agencies also currently support or conduct research in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences and/or use meteorological and oceanographic services in the conduct of their assigned responsibilities. Relevant agency missions and how they relate to climate issues are described in the U.S. Climate Program Plan. The National Climate Program, complex and involving many agencies, requires a focus of responsibility and leadership. NOAA's mission and functions are central to the entire effort, and NOAA's plan must include a leadership role. Such a role would be consistent with the U.S. Climate Program Plan and various Legislative and Executive initiatives. Further, since NOAA provides the U.S. Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) , it will take the lead in coordinating U.S. climate activities with the World Climate Program. CHAPTER II The NOAA Climate Program The ultimate goal of the NOAA Climate Program is to increase the effectiveness of the Government to anticipate climatic variations and their impacts. This can be accomplished by developing and applying knowledge of the processes of climatic variability, assessing the effect of climatic variability on human affairs, and helping to evaluate man's impact and potential influence upon regional and global climate. To meet this goal, we must make major advances in climate monitoring, analysis, and theory; impact assessment technology; climate modeling; and information transfer. The program elements that follow under each of the specific subject areas conform to the direction explicit in A United States Climate Program Plan and have been established to achieve these advances. Figure 1 depicts the major elements of the NOAA climate program and their interrelationships. Realization of the program's goal is found at the right of the diagram, where a current awareness and projection of the climatic state is maintained, and where assessments of climate impacts and risks are made. The placement of other tasks within the program become clear when we consider a realistic assessment of the potential for significant advances toward the program goals. Figure 1 . Major Elements and Interrelationships of the NOAA Climate Program Outlook for Improvement of Awareness and Project ion Our knowledge of the current climatic state and our ability to predict climate are not good today. Improvement of existing capabili- ties to document regional and global climates and to anticipate changes is being approached from two directions. One of these is deterministic modeling (including model development, simulation experiments, and supporting observational studies), which uses the governing laws of physics and the relevant interactions. The second approach uses empirical or statistical studies based on the observed past climatic behavior and our (incomplete) knowledge of the physics of the separate processes that make up the total climate system. The first approach, if successful, could prove to be the most valuable. It is probably the only approach that would permit a full range of climate-related problems to be solved. For example, deter- ministic modeling is already providing valuable insight into such problems as inadvertent modification of the stratosphere and in the design of cost-effective climate observing systems. Deterministic modeling promises a very great pay-off. However, we must recognize that there may be fundamental limitations to the accuracy of such predictions due to the inherent instability and nonlinearity of the climate system itself. Such fundamental limitations have been discovered for weather prediction. Thus, one of the important goals for climate research is to establish whether such limitations exist for the longer term climatic predictions and what kinds of statistical and deterministic information can be gained from large-scale modeling. The second approach also is meeting with some limited success today. Additional support should improve the accuracy of current monthly and seasonal outlooks and will aid in making assessments of climatic risk and maintaining an awareness of the climatic state. Both the modeling and empirical approaches should be supported. Both will offer long-term benefits. Outlook for Improvement of Climate Services The basis for anticipating improvements in climate services, such as reliable assessments of climate impacts and risks, is in the development of supporting information. There are several tasks that can be undertaken now in the search for and acquisition of historical climate data. These can be done within existing programs, provided appropriate resources are made available. There are, however, significant elements of climate about which relatively little is known. These include the earth's energy budget, the storage and transport of heat in the world oceans, and the ocean-atmosphere exchange of energy. For significant progress to be made in climate modeling and in maintaining an awareness of the climatic state, the present observational methods must be enhanced to fill certain gaps in information. A new data set will result, and data management then becomes a focus for information exchange throughout the program. In addition, there will be a need for intensive diagnostic analyses of the new information to determine the physical influence of these elements on climatic fluctuations. We turn next to the proposed NOAA contributions to a national climate plan in the following five categories of priority research and service needs identified in Chapter I of this report: o Impact assessment . o Climate diagnosis and projection. o Climate research. o Observations. o Data management. A. IMPACT ASSESSMENT By identifying impact assessment as a major programmatic element, the U.S. Climate Program Plan recognizes that if we are to cope with the vagaries of climate we must be fully aware of how they will affect us. In our highly technological society, the effects of climate fluctuations are frequently large and severe. Information about the nature and extent of the impacts of varying climate is not of itself a solution to the problem of coping with them. But without such knowledge, our response to climate-created problems will remain ad hoc, rudimentary, and inefficient. Coping with climate variations requires an ability to take precautionary or remedial actions and enough information to determine when to take action and what steps are necessary. The role of impact assessment is to make available the necessary quantified information, involving a specialized combination of climatological and applications-oriented knowledge, data, and expertise. NOAA is the focus within the Federal Government of climatological information and expertise. Arrangements are needed whereby that capability can be joined productively with the special know-how and the specific problematic concerns of other agencies of the Federal Government. Moreover, means must be sought to apply the techniques and insights of impact assessment to the policy and planning activities of state and local government and of industry. The program formulated below deals most immediately with applications of impact assessment to recognized major problem areas at the Federal level. Subsequently, NOAA plans to address how this may be broadened with state and university involvement. 1 . Objectives As the major producer and processor of climatic information, NOAA's role must be to assure that society realizes full value from this investment in climate information. NOAA must be able to suggest and demonstrate applications of climate information and to ensure that methodologies exist to measure climate impacts. It must also generate the climate information that best indicates the impact on important human endeavors. In cases of climate-sensitive activities where methodologies for applying climate information are proven useful, they should be implemented by the agencies or jurisdictions responsible for those activities. As a matter of policy, NOAA seeks to develop and improve the transfer of applied climatological techniques to mission agencies and the public. Specifically, NOAA intends to: o Maintain a high level of national capability for modeling the impact of climate on regional, national, and international activities . This implies working with groups or agencies with special expertise or responsibilities in climate-sensitive areas (e.g. , agriculture) to develop the best methodologies for using climate information. It also implies a continuing effort to identify areas where quantitative assessment of climate impacts would be of substantial benefit to the Nation. 10 o Encourage mission agencies or responsible jurisdictions to develop and apply models that demonstrate the validity and utility of measures of climate impact . This implies an on- going program of climate awareness to be described in the next element of this chapter. o Assure that quality climatic data are available to mission agencies and the public for impact model development and for implementation of such models, whether bv NOAA in a demonstrative mode or by some other agency as a routine impact assessment operation . NOAA should participate in joint publication of impact assessments with the responsible agency to encourage continuing close attention to the quality and optimum packaging of the climate data and cooperative interpretation of the assessments. o Assess the risks of various climatological contingencies that may be critical to national planning . This implies a capability to identify situations of significant national or international impact. o Maintain a program to assess climate impacts on' fish stocks so that fisheries management plans can be suitably adjusted . In this regard, NOAA is responding to its role as the manager of the Nation's fisheries rather than as a climate agency. Three objectives will comprise the first focus of NOAA effort to accomplish these aims and to meet priority recommendations contained in the United States Climate Program Plan. In each case, models developed will be tested for their ability to meet high accuracy standards. The three objectives are as follows: o Respond to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) needs to quantify the impact of climate fluctuations on selected major crops. o Respond to Department of Energy needs to quantify the impact of climate fluctuations on demands for certain fuels and electricity. o Respond to NOAA/NMFS needs to quantify the impact of climatic fluctuations on the productivity of selected major marine fisheries. 2. Current Activities NOAA's main contribution in this area has been the establishment of a Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment (CCEA) within the Environmental Data Service. The CCEA consists of two divisions, the Model Division and the Assessment Division. The Model Division 11 is concerned primarily with developing numerical models that relate climate to yields of selected major crops and to the demand for energy. The Assessment Division uses these models and data from various ground stations and from NOAA and NASA satellites to provide assessments of the impact of climatic anomalies on potential crop yields and other resource needs around the world. The CCEA also cooperates with the Department of Agriculture in publishing the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin . This widely circulated periodical charts climatic impacts on agriculture. CCEA is supported in its modeling and assessment work by the EDS Center for Experiment Design and Data Analysis (CEDDA) in data set preparation, quality control, data base management, and objective analysis. A major CCEA effort relates to the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE), an interagency experiment involving the USDA, NASA, and CCEA. The LACIE project combines satellite observations, meteorological data, and numerical models to predict the wheat crop yields in several major wheat-producing countries. The system worked very well during the 1975-1976 growing seasons. CCEA provided estimates of U.S. 1975-1976 winter and spring wheat yield that were very close to the actual production figures released by the Agriculture Departments Statistical Reporting Service. Seasonal wheat yield estimates based on yield models are now considered to have achieved a skill level of 90 percent accuracy 90 percent of the time. Weekly reports by CCEA to the LACIE project on global weather anomalies and the potential impact on wheat yields in selected countries also are being used by many other organizations. Special weekly reports on the Sahel countries are provided to the State Department's Agency for International Development. CCEA, in cooperation with the Long Range Prediction Group of NOAA's National Weather Service, is producing estimates of the projected residential and commercial natural gas demand for the current heating season. The method is based upon statistical rela- tions between heating degree days and natural gas demand. Monthly updated estimates throughout the heating season are based on the heating season to date, the long-range (3-month) projections, and heating degree day climatology for the remainder of the heating season. Such estimates for climatic regions proved to be successful in the highly anomalous 1976-1977 winter. NWS also publishes water supply outlooks on a regular basis for the northeastern and western sectors of the country. These are based on analyses of precipitation, snow water equivalent, and runoff data. 3. Problems There is a rapidly increasing public awareness that climate fluctuations impact grains and other agricultural crops. The fact that climatic fluctuations also affect the distribution and abundance of fish stocks is less generally known. Ocean climatic changes are caused, at 12 least in part, by anomalies in atmospheric flow patterns; changes in fish stocks are caused by the subsequent changes in ocean currents, upwelling, water temperature, and nutrients. Statistical relationships between climate anomalies and fish yields are needed for use in impact assessments and the development of stock quotas. These relationships will require a better understanding of the ocean-atmos- phere coupling before they find full application to fisheries management and development . One problem in developing and applying models of such relationships is that of defining the area of the ocean involved in the production of a given stock of fish. In the case of a grain crop, the geographical boundaries of fields or regions within which crops are grown are well known and are mostly under the direct control and management of man. Fish, however, know no "flag." Consequently, they cross jurisdictional boundaries and at times disappear completely into the open ocean for years (e.g., salmon and tuna). In the energy area, models have been developed relating temperature to residential and commercial natural gas demand. Demands for other fuels and electricity also should be modeled. The potential usefulness of such models is vast, and the new Department of Energy will be a partner in the development of the modeling capability. This partnership will be built upon collaborative efforts, initiated during the memorable winter of 1976-1977. The importance of these efforts is illustrated by a recent NOAA study that suggests that conservation efforts through the heating season of 1976-1977 were not effective in reducing the demand for natural gas. Without an assessment capability one cannot measure the effectiveness of conservation measures. 4. Proposed Approach The specific development of the NOAA program in impact assessment will be geared to the requirements of other agencies as they undertake to measure how climate impacts activities under their juridiction. In agriculture, for example, NOAA's involvement will be governed in large part by a planned interagency agreement with the USDA and NASA. Under this agreement, NOAA would provide USDA with the necessary climate data for that agency to operate crop-yield models and assist USDA in further model development. NOAA will also continue to improve some of its present experimental models and will work on new approaches to modeling agricultural yield. The time frame for the USDA's operational assessment program is not yet specified. As the USDA program becomes established, however, NOAA's effort to produce routine assessments of specific crop yields in specific areas will probably decrease. A similar program evolution is likely in other areas of model application as the potential utility of climate assessments become identified and subsequently demonstrated. 13 a. Yield Modeling Climate/crop yield models have been, and in general will continue to be, statistical in nature. They consist of yield estimates based on regression analyses in which historical data series of yield and weather observations are used to estimate coefficients. Thus, food yield estimates will be based on the historical response of yield to changes in the meteorological variables. Trends in the historical yield due to nonweather factors can be included. As the program progresses and as technology permits, models will be expanded to include additional critical factors. For some areas these factors might include adjustable crop calendars, water budget, and solar radiation. At some point in the future, it may be possible to include a comparison of the appearance of the crop (physiological development of the plant) with the yield. Both simple linear models that require only weekly or monthly summaries of meteorological data inputs and more complete, nonlinear, time dependent models that require daily meteorological measurements will be developed, tested, and compared. b. Energy Demand Modeling Initial climate/energy demand models have been developed that are statistical in nature. Thus, energy demand estimates are based on regression analyses in which historical data series of consumption for an area are related to degree days and certain relevant economic variables. The models will be improved to provide estimates for multistate regions within the contiguous 48 States for periods ranging from several days to a season. As indicated above, a statistical methodology is being applied which uses a three-part combination of degree days to date, the National Weather Service's 90-day outlook, and the climatological degree-day values to obtain a projection of potential residential and commercial natural gas demand for the heating season. The climate/energy demand modeling to be accelerated will first relate to energy used in residential and commercial heating and cooling -- natural gas and electricity -- where the demand-supply situation is most critical. Residential and commercial demand is sensitive to climatic fluctuations and has the highest priority claim on the available supply. Subsequent efforts will be directed toward the demands for other heating fuels such as oil, coal, and refined liquefied gas. Energy demand models will be developed on various space and time scales to assist energy planners and managers to monitor energy use and assess the effectiveness of conservation programs. Further work will attempt to develop stratified models that can be aggregated to larger area estimates. Energy demand estimates will be based on historical variations in consumption in response to weather and climate fluctuations in the 14 region under consideration. It will also be necessary to assess the impact of economic variables and other factors (e.g. , conservation initiatives) that modify consumption patterns over time. c. Fishery Productivity Modeling Although relationships between climate and yields of major grain crops already are being demonstrated, the development of relationships between climate and fishery yields is still rudimentary. There is strong evidence, however, that significant and useful models involving such species as shrimp, anchovies, and tuna can be developed. Coordi- nated efforts to develop appropriate data bases and models will take place within the National Marine Fisheries Service, the user agency that will be responsible for interpreting and using the output of the models, and in the CCEA, the element of NOAA responsible for implementing the impact assessment part of its climate program. d. Other Modeling In some areas, the impact of climate fluctuations may be known to be large, but the ability to make and use quantitative impact assessments has not been developed. One example is water resources. Even without the reminder of the situation in the Western United States over the last several years, it is recognized that drought is a perennial problem. Yet the full impact of drought on industrial activity is not known, even though problems associated with agriculture, rangeland management, and water resource management are generally recognized. The question for NOAA to investigate is whether useful relationships exist between climate and economic activities, how these relationships can be quantified, and how they may be used in planning programs and developing policy. NOAA will further encourage planning agencies (other local jurisdictions or states) to quantify and apply these relationships. Initial efforts will concentrate on surveying the highest priority needs for these specialized assessment studies. Another example is the relation of climate to human health. The dependency of man upon his environment is not understood quantitatively, but it is clear that the weather kills or enfeebles thousands of persons each year. Much of the present knowledge concerning weather effects on health is of an anecdotal nature; deaths increase as certain weather systems go by; arthritic and rheumatic patients suffer under other changes. The data needed for climate/health modeling have only recently become available. Scientists in the two disciplines are beginning dialogues which can result in understanding the types of weather that generate physiological stress, discomfort, desease, and death. Statistical models relating climate to human health should be developed for the practicing physician. 15 e. Federal-State Cooperation Beginning in FY 1980, NOAA plans to further develop a cooperative project with states working through State Climatologists or university programs in climatology to encourage and support studies at the state level that will measure the impact of climate variations on activities of particular local relevance. For example, a particular state may be interested in how climate would impact not only the yield of a particular crop but the combined output of the state's mix of agriculture and its subsequent economic impact. Or a state might propose to study the impact of climate variations elsewhere on the demand for one of its products; perhaps some mineral or manufactured item. It would be up to the state to generate the program and provide basic support to pursue it. NOAA would provide guidance and data and share support at a level yet to be determined. 16 B. CLIMATE DIAGNOSIS AND PROJECTION In the previous section, it was shown that planning for conserva- tion and use of critical national resources, specifically grain and other commodities, fisheries, energy, and water resources, can be aided by proper use of climate information. As a nation, we are acutely aware of recent food and energy crises that have been intensi- fied throughout the world by the natural fluctuations of regional climate. We recognize the importance of developing improved systematic procedures for identifying climatic fluctuations as early as possible and for estimating their severity and duration. Present attempts at climate prediction largely use methods that are statistical and empirical in nature. We expect improvements in the present capability through better data and through the understanding that results from empirical investigations (i.e., "diagnostic" studies). In the longer term, it is expected that climate prediction capa- bilities will emerge from a mix of statistical and dynamic models of the atmosphere and oceans. A number of research programs and investi- gations are required to support and advance the modeling capability, investigations that rest on empirical data and are in principle not clearly distinguishable from diagnostic studies that support empirically based prediction methods. For purposes of this document, the diagnostic activities have been arbitrarily separated: some are included in the next section under research; some in this section under diagnosis and projection. Empirical investigations undertaken with the primary intent of understanding physical processes of climate and improving models or the pararaeterizations needed for the models are included in research. Empirical investigations undertaken with the primary intent of contributing insights or clues to aid in the formulation of predictions are included under diagnostics and projection. This is an arbitrary division because knowledge of what best serves empirical prediction will undoubtedly contribute significantly to the development of climate models as well. Similarly, better understanding of physical processes should always serve to improve any prediction scheme. The research element of the NOAA Climate Program (Section C) includes the following kinds of empirical studies: o Specific process-oriented investigations [e.g. , the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Study (EPOCS)]. Determination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and energetics designed to validate models or serve as initial conditions. o Analyses of empirical data related to atmospheric composition or surface boundary conditions. 17 All of these empirical studies, in a somewhat different context, could be identified as diagnostic investigations. The NOAA effort in diagnostics and projection described in this section will include such activities as statistical studies of intermonthly to interannual variation and case studies of climate fluctuations of periods of a few weeks to a year, including studies of specific relationships of oceanic and atmospheric events (e.g. , El Nino) . 1 . Objectives Our present awareness of current climate fluctuations and our ability to predict their occurrence falls far short of fulfilling the needs of the planners and policy makers who must face problems associated with these fluctuations. However, progress in these areas is possible with proper use of available science and technology. For example, analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies on a global basis began only recently. One problem is the inadequacy of available data. Data from world sources should be assembled more rapidly for comprehensive analysis of climatic fluctuation patterns. In this connection, we should establish specialized data processing capabilities and improve arrangements for exchange of data among data centers around the world. Also, we should accelerate the use of environmental satellite information for preparing climate analyses of such factors as radiative heating, cloudiness, and snow and ice. Forecasts of average temperature for the next month and for the next season issued by the National Weather Service are based on empirical and statistical relations derived from past experience. They are sufficiently accurate (60 percent in the sign of the tempera- ture anomaly) to be of limited use to governmental, business, and agricultural interests. Forecasts of precipitation are less dependable, however (55 percent in the sign of the precipitation anomaly). Predictions based on purely physical principles using dynamical models are quite successful for the short range (periods of 1-3 days) but have not yet been tested sufficiently on the longer periods of interest here. Judicious combinations of statistical and physical methods have also been fruitful for short-range weather predictions. An important part of the NOAA climate program, therefore, consists of developing, exploiting, and evaluating statistical, empirical, and dynamical forecasting methods for ranges of one month to a year. These considerations lead to four NOAA objectives in the area of climate diagnosis and projection. They are to: o Develop and maintain current awareness of climate anomalies. o Conduct empirical analyses and diagnoses of climatic variations. 18 o Improve monthly and seasonal outlooks. o Develop and provide interannual projections of seasonal anomalies. 2. Current Activities Utilizing a special $250,000 supplemental appropriation to its FY 1977 budget, NOAA has initiated a climate diagnostics activity under the leadership of the National Weather Service to improve awareness and prediction of seasonal weather anomalies. Essential first steps include the application of new statistical analysis techniques to climate forecasting, diagnostic case studies of selected recent short-term climate fluctuations, new studies of physical and statistical relationships between atmospheric and oceanic anomalies, and increased use of satellite observational techniques. A NOAA Climate Diagnostics Workshop, planned annually and involving partici- pants from the research community at large, is designed to examine diagnostic techniques while reviewing and assessing the global climatic state, concentrating on the climate events of the latest year. In NOAA's National Weather Service, the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Long Range Prediction Group (LRPG) prepares monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for North America and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. These outlooks are routinely disseminated on a 15-day cycle. Seasonal temperature outlooks for North America are prepared quarterly. All of the outlooks are based on empirical and statistical techniques with an accuracy of about 60 percent for the correct sign of the temperature anomaly for monthly and seasonal temperature outlooks. Accuracy of the monthly precipitation outlooks is somewhat less. These skill levels are still too low to engender the public confidence necessary for wider use of such long-range projections. The LRPG activities include some analyses and draw upon additional data collection and processing support within NWS and NESS. Current data sets are generated in NWS; some are archived historically by the Long Range Prediction Group for forecasting operations and diagnostic studies. Diagnostic studies of stratospheric circulation are carried out in NMC's Development Division. NMC also maintains a 30-day file of global weather data which, with similar data from NESS, fills major source requirements for compiling current climatic data sets. Weekly extracts of global precipitation and temperature are provided to EDS/CCEA and other research activities. CCEA uses these data to assess weather conditions in the recent past throughout the world. Other EDS centers and ERL interpret the global climatic record for trends and possible causes of variability. 19 In the NESS, base program work related to diagnostic and projection objectives is done by the Meteorological Satellite Laboratory and the Environmental Sciences Group. These include preparation of monthly and seasonal values of radiative heat budget and wind fields on a global basis and analyses of Northern Hemisphere snow cover and global sea- surface temperature and their fluctuations. The NMFS develops indices of ocean climate variability and maintains related cooperative research, data acquisition, and analysis projects with Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC). Ocean temperature and current profiles are obtained in limited areas of the world's oceans and are analyzed at NMFS laboratories for distribution to NWS, ERL, and groups partici- pating in the North Pacific Experiment (NORPAX), sponsored principally by NSF. The NOS maintains a network of tidal stations in the Pacific Ocean. Data from these stations provide a continuous record of tidal oscillations from which can be determined the effects of atmospheric forcing of water masses in the Pacific. 3. Problems Many of the large-scale and long-term processes associated with climate fluctuations are poorly understood. In part, this situation exists because present general circulation and climate models do not take into account all the physical processes that may be important for climate fluctuations. In turn, much of this lack of understanding exists because of incomplete or inaccurate observations. There are long records of surface (air) temperature, winds, pressure, precipitation, and other weather elements over well-populated land areas but very meager records over sparsely populated land regions and over vast areas of the oceans, particularly in the Tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. The use of "proxy" climatic data (e.g. , tree rings, polar ice cores, and lake- and ocean-bottom sediment cores) extends the temperature and precipitation record well beyond the period of detailed instrumental records -- albeit with far less resolution of time — over limited areas of the earth. When other records are considered, the situation is worse. Relatively good records of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature, pressure, and wind have been compiled over the past 30-35 years, but again these have been deficient over large portions of the globe. The most unsatisfactory situation arises with regard to those processes that essentially drive the atmospheric and oceanic circulations -- the energy sources and transformations. Condensation and evaporation, sensible heat transfer between the surface and the atmosphere, radiation, and heat storage in the oceans have all been difficult to measure or derive from existing data networks. 20 As satellite and new ocean observations (see Section D) fill in the data voids with information about ocean heat storage and transport, cloudiness, ice and snow cover, temperature, wind, radiation budget, and precipitation, substantial advances in evaluating and understanding climate fluctuations are expected. Simply feeding these observational data into general circulation and climate models alone will not provide this understanding. There also must be an accompanying strong program to study and diagnose climate fluctuations, including detailed climate events. The assembly and analysis of observational data will permit a clearer physical picture to be made of the nature and causal interrela- tionships of climate events. As various climate events are studied, the physical processes of climate will be clarified. This should lead to well-directed efforts at developing better statistical climate prediction methods and improving numerical climate prediction models. 4. Proposed Approach A strategy for solving many of the problems outlined earlier and for meeting the objectives of this section follows. A major part of that strategy has been outlined in A United States Climate Program Plan . That Plan proposes a Climate Diagnostics Center. NOAA, therefore, intends to establish, as part of an overall climate diagnostics effort, a Center for Climatic Analysis and Projection (CCAP) in which expertise from several NOAA organizational elements will be formed into an interactive, coherent component of the total NOAA climate program. The CCAP will be NOAA's focal point for applying new technology and new approaches to the analysis, diagnosis, and projection of short-term climatic fluctuations. Establishment of the CCAP will bring together specialists in climatology, meteorology, oceanography, statistics, environmental satellite data, and data management . The diagnostics thrust of the CCAP will be supplemented by cooperative NOAA/university programs (the planned level of funding anticipates approximately 40 percent of the diagnostics project, including CCAP, to be accomplished using university and industry capabilities). The empirical studies described in the research element of this chapter (Section C) will be tied to the CCAP and the climate diagnostics project, not only by the NOAA management structure but also by the annual diagnostics workshops, the first two of which were held in November 1976 and October 1977. Activities within the CCAP include specifying output product requirements; evaluating their utility; integrating products with service programs; analyzing, diagnosing, and predicting climatic fluctuations; and providing user services. The CCAP will involve several components of the new Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Services, including the NWS, NESS, and EDS. The Center will be operated within the NWS's National Meteorological Center. 21 The objectives of the NOAA climate diagnosis and projection effort can only be met with the strong support of several NOAA elements, principally the Offices of Research and Development and Fisheries. Indeed, much diagnostic research pertaining to climate variability will be accomplished outside the CCAP. Yet this research will contribute to the body of information available to the CCAP and necessary to accomplish its stated objectives. The NOAA climate diagnostics initiative will be developed around the following three activities (see Table 2): o Climate Prediction and Techniques Development -- empirical and statistical treatment of various climate parameters to improve, test, evaluate, and extend the range of climate outlooks. o Information Services and Data Processing -- provision of products and information services pertaining to current and predicted climate fluctuations. The outputs will be formatted for use by forecasters for preparing outlooks, decision makers for early awareness, and research workers in their studies to obtain a better understanding of climate fluctua- tions. The outputs also will be formatted for other users of current climate information, particularly EDS/CCEA climate-food, climate-energy, and other CCEA and non-NOAA climatic impact assessment projects. o Diagnostic Research — investigative studies to determine the nature of climate fluctuations observed in the atmosphere-ocean system. These include case studies of selected recent climatic fluctuations, studies of climatic processes and forcing mechanisms, and tests of climate variability hypotheses. Table 2. Functions of the Climate Diagnostics Project CLIMATE PREDICTION INFORMATION SERVICES AND AND TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT DATA PROCESSING DIAGNOSTIC RESEARCH Techniques development Realtime monitoring Case studies Testing and evaluation Specialized data Process studies, compilation and hypotheses tests, Forecasting analyses analyses and evaluations 22 a. Climate Prediction and Techniques Development Climate prediction and techniques development will be the principal responsibility of the CCAP and will begin with the applica- tion of several statistical techniques, known but untried insofar as climate forecasting procedures are concerned. Activities to pursue are the fitting of data fields or derived fields with orthogonal functions and the use of multivariate statistics to locate climate predictors. Time series and spectral analyses will be used to search the climatic record for predictable parameters. Spatial correlations and joint probability analyses will be performed on economically or socially critical climatic variables. Realistic probabilities of occurrence of various climatic events, such as the cold winter of 1 976—1 977 experienced over much of the United States, will be deter- mined through actuarial analysis of the proxy-extended data base. It is important to compile this data base. The CCAP will avail itself of capabilities found principally outside the CCAP for assembly and analysis of proxy climatic data, so vital to maintaining a perspective on the anomalous climatic events of recent years and decades. b. Information Services and Data Processing Data processing and information services will be arranged largely through the CCAP. Climatic compilations specified by CCAP and drawn from the developing climate monitoring system will be made in realtime for use in diagnostic analysis and as input for prediction of climate. Satellite specialists will be called upon to derive homogeneous sets of satellite climate data, establish long-term means, develop new methods for deriving climate indices from satellite observations, diagnose the influence of satellite-observed phenomena (e.g., variations in radiative heat budget and associated cloudiness, ice and snow cover, and other surface characteristics) on climate fluctuations, and ensure optimum utilization of satellite observations in climate prediction methods. Surface and upper air data from the global observing network will undergo similar analyses to derive useful diagnostic information such as the energetics parameters of the atmosphere. Data specialists for the CCAP will conduct climatic data search activities, establish a climate diagnostics data index, and arrange for prompt access to and assembly of climatic data from the National Climatic Center (NCC), the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) , NMC, and NESS archives and other accessible worldwide sources such as the Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central. The EDS will archive climate diagnostics data sets and other CCAP products. c. Diagnostic Research Diagnostic research will be carried out by many individuals and groups, including the CCAP. The paragraphs that follow outline a number of important processes that need to be understood for the 23 development of climate forecasts. Too, these processes must be examined for a more fundamental reason — to understand climate forcing and feedback mechanisms for the development of climate models and the parameterization of physical processes in those models. Thus, the discussion that follows — and concludes this section on diagnosis and projection — also introduces the next section, Climate Research. We consider first those processes involving principally the atmosphere and then those involving atmosphere-ocean interaction. (i) Atmosphere o Variations in Intensity and Location of Major Long-Per- iod Circulation Systems in Middle and High Latitudes . The behavior of the major circulation systems (from the surface upward into the stratosphere) essentially determines major climate fluctuations (e.g., cold or warm spells of weather, frequent or infrequent storminess with consequent effects on precipitation, cloudiness, thunderstorms, and winds). Some of the major circulation systems are anchored geographically (e.g., the Icelandic Low, the Aleutian Low, and the Siberian High), but even these vary considerably in intensity and location so that climate fluctuations occur in various localities. Associated with these circulation systems are: — The iet stream . At times the jet stream is strong and varies little in latitudinal position around the globe; at other times it may be weak and meander widely between high and low latitudes. Satellite observations should permit better monitoring of the jet stream over the globe, particularly at the subtropical latitudes, and observations of radiation budget, cloudiness, and precipitation may help to determine reasons for the long-period variations. -- The polar vortex . The polar vortex is a major feature of the middle and upper tropospheric flow in winter. Usually it is not located directly over the pole but is displaced equatorward. Occasionally it is divided into two major cyclonic centers. Empirical studies of observed variations in snow, ice, and cloudiness and their effects on the radiation budget in polar regions may help to determine how and why the polar vortex varies from one period to another. — Blocking . The term "blocking" signifies a large- amplitude, nearly stationary, anticyclone or ridge in middle or high latitudes that "blocks" storms from moving through the region of the anticyclone. Such a system often lasts from a week to a month or more. 24 Blocking (and the associated breakdown in the basic westerly flow pattern aloft) has not yet been explained dynamically or thermodynamically and is hard to predict. However, blocking is a very important phenomenon, which awaits diagnosis with improved climate data sets. — Storms and anticyclones . Variations in tracks and intensities of storms and anticyclones are, of course, related to some of the phenomena mentioned above. However, since the ensemble of individual cyclones and anticyclones essentially determines the climate at a particular location, it is important to monitor these systems, their speeds of propagation, and the regions of genesis and decay. Cloud imagery from satellites and information on sea-surface temperature and wind fields should help to better define the interactions between these individual moving weather systems and anomalies in the structure of the underlying sea, ice, snow, and land surfaces. These systems, with their cloudiness and precipitation fields, require study to determine their effect on the mean atmospheric energy budget. Variations in the Behavior of Major Long-Period Circulation Systems in the Tropics . The Tropics represent a substantial part of the globe where major energy inputs and exchanges affect the atmosphere, oceans, and land areas. It is the region where much of the net radiational heating of the earth-atmosphere system takes place, substantial amounts of heat and moisture are transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, and the principal release of condensation heating occurs. Variations in the geographical distribution of tropical heat input to the atmosphere are important influences on midlatitude circulation. Some specific phenomena of the tropics in need of study are: -- Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) . The zone of low-level wind convergence, cloudiness, and precipitation is, in the cliraatological mean, a narrow belt (2-5 latitude wide) located over the oceans, generally within about 10 of latitude of the equator (predominantly north of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans). It varies in intensity and location over time periods from a few days to a year or more. Variations in its intensity signify variations in the amount of condensa- tion heating, radiational heating, an air-sea energy exchange. Since these heating variations influence 25 the circulation over the Tropics (e.g. , the strength of outflow in the upper troposphere from the ITCZ, the development of the upper easterly and westerly jet streams, and establishment of large-scale upper level wave patterns), the distribution of energy in the ITCZ is important to monitor and to diagnose. — Large-scale convection over continents . Over the three major tropical land areas — South America, Africa, and Indonesia -- there are much broader regions of relatively intense convective cloudiness and rainfall. Variations in the strength of these convergence areas probably play a large role in causing variations in atmospheric general circulation. Through their influence on the Walker (equatorial zonal) and Hadley (meridional) circulations, they can be associated with long-distance interactions within the Tropics and with subtropical and middle latitudes of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. -- Tropical cyclones . Variations in the frequency, genesis, and tracks of tropical cyclones are controlled to a great extent by the large-scale tropical circula- tion. In turn, these variations undoubtedly modify the large-scale heat and moisture exchange with the ocean surface, condensation heating, cloudiness, and pressure field variation. Existing data needs to be examined for evidence of any statistical predictability in the variations in frequency of occurrence, intensity, and preferred tracks of these storms over months and seasons. -- The Asian monsoon . The summer monsoon is an important circulation feature over the Asian continent. It is well known that the monsoon varies significantly from one summer to another and also within each summer. The causes of these variations are not well known, although the regular seasonal variation of the circulation is readily attributable to the heating of the atmosphere over the Asian continent relative to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Satellite imagery has served to document the development and evolution of the cloudiness associated with the monsoon over India, Southeast Asia, and the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New satellite data giving information on tropical radiation budget, wind, rainfall, and temperature should be used in the coming years to improve our understanding of the energetics of the monsoon circulation and to explore the possible statistical prediction of monsoon activity. Recent research relating Indian summer rainfall to the 26 previous winter's snow cover over Eurasia provides an encouraging indication of possible predictability of the Indian monsoon several months in the future. Since other factors, such as the Arabian Sea surface temperatures, must also affect the monsoon, all energy exchanges associated with the monsoon should be examined. -- Large-Scale Interactions Between Circulations in the Tropics and Those in Middle and High Latitudes and Between the Hemispheres . Namias and others have demonstrated strong correlations between long-period circulation events over great distances (as much as 180 longitude apart) at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Namias has also demon- strated some connection between sea-surface temperature anomalies and both local and more distant features of the circulation. However, these relationships seem to be simultaneous (i.e., no lagging of one event relative to the other) on the scale of months or seasons. Obviously, for prediction of climatic fluctuations by statistical means to be useful, some meaningful lag correlations should exist. There are circulation features that seem to exhibit some degree of persistence, which suggests that the relationships may be of use for predicting over other regions. Indeed, it is this type of information that is used today for seasonal prediction by NOAA. A major goal of climate diagnosis and statistical climate prediction research is to attempt to find more of these large-scale interrelations both in time and space. As more information becomes available from the Tropics and the Southern Hemisphere, these large-scale interrelations can be examined more closely. (In fact, as a more comprehensive set of worldwide data becomes available, the search for large-scale interrelationships should be accelerated. ) Some possible correlations have been mentioned in connec- tion with the tropical convective activity and its pos- sible influence on the subtropical and middle latitude westerlies. Other features that offer interesting possibilities of interaction are the frequently observed meridionally oriented cloud bands, which seem to connect the Tropics with middle latitudes and are associated with significant transports of moisture and heat through deep layers in the troposphere. Studies show that cloud connections between tropical cyclones and middle latitude circulations have some short-period (several days) influence on large-scale 27 circulation and energetics over large regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Investigations must be carried out to determine whether the frequency of occurrence of such events in a month or a season has lasting influences on monthly or seasonal circulations. (ii) Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction o Pacific Equatorial Sea-Surface Temperatures, El Nino t and the Southern Oscillation-Walker Circulation . The complex of associations between variations in the sea-surface temperatures near the equator over the eastern Pacific, the occurrence of coastal warm water near Peru (El Nino), and fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns over the South Pacific and the equator has come under examination in recent years as a major climate fluctuation phenomenon. Attention to this phenomenon developed mainly as a result of the work of J. Bjerknes and his attempts to demonstrate oceanic-atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent numerical modeling work seems to support the notion that tropical sea tempera- ture anomalies of the type observed in the equatorial Pacific may cause significant variations in the atmospheric general circulation. Field research programs such as the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE), NORPAX, and NOAA's Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies, as discussed later in Section C, will contribute greatly to the understanding of this and other complex phenomena and the ability to predict them. Analyses of data from the ocean-wide network of ocean island and ocean floor tidal stations will also aid in developing that ability. o Midlatitude Atmosphere-Ocean Interation . Results of some case studies suggest that sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific may occur before climatological deviations of the atmosphere develop over North America; results from other studies suggest the opposite. A clarification of the relative influence one medium has over the other would have obvious implications for long-range climate prediction. The scales of variability associated with the thermal structure of the North Pacific are on the order of years and several thousand kilometers, yet ocean thermal anomalies can develop suddenly over a period of a few weeks and can last for several years. Using recent data available from NORPAX, the NMFS, and the Navy and historical data from EDS archives, NOAA will 28 collaborate with university and other government agencies in conducting diagnostic studies to examine the Pacific Ocean's role in affecting North American climate. 29 C. CLIMATE RESEARCH Existing climatic data and knowledge can sustain significant improvement in services to government, industry, and the public. However, only intensive climate research can generate the degree of understanding demanded by the need to anticipate climatic variations — whether natural or anthropogenic. Each of the major elements of the proposed NOAA program will have a research component. Improved climatic impact assessment will depend upon research to develop new methodologies and clarify relationships between climate and the environment. Research will be the key to developing the imaginative techniques needed to identify and use the indices for empirical projection of climate. Effective monitoring of climate and climatic factors implies research and development of in situ and remote sensors, studies of optimum system design and observing schemes, and analysis of the data flow from these systems. Data management also requires systematic exploration of new techniques to control data quality and to compact data sets. 1 . Objectives This section deals with what is usually referred to as basic or fundamental research in climate. Such research revolves around attempts to develop and test hypotheses about how the climate system works. It depends strongly upon the mathematical representation of the behavior of the environment and the depiction of that behavior through the use of computer models. It recognizes the need for carefully conceived observational programs to uncover and clarify fundamental relationships. Indeed, it is the interplay between theory and observations that makes this a dynamic enterprise that requires information from other elements of the plan while offering the major hope for breakthroughs to make each element more productive in climate products and services. Such a complex and poorly understood field as climate research requires parallel lines of inquiry to assure stimulation of all relevant ideas. Academic institutions provide a critical contribution. Other agencies also must be involved in many facets of the problem. NOAA will play a key role because of the breadth of its scientific expertise and because of its unique and indispensable computational and observing facilities. The objectives of the research program outlined in this section are to: o Establish an accurate description of the global climate and the range and distribution of its natural variability. o Identify the dynamic physical mechanisms responsible for climate and its variation. 30 o Assess the degree to which climate is predictable on the interseasonal and interannual time scales and, to the extent possible, develop a predictive capability. o Provide reliable predictions of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations that are likely to occur in future years as a result of burning of fossil fuel reserves. 2. Current Activities NOAA's climate research is currently pursued primarily through theoretical studies, empirical analyses, and numerical simulation. A large part of this research is conducted at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey. A major undertaking at GFDL involves the development of mathemati- cal models of climate. Examples include a high resolution (250-km grid scale) version of a coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model and a new general circulation model extending 80 km into the mesosphere, which is being used to investigate ozone photochem- ical processes. Other activities at GFDL include development of a global forecast model that reacts with the upper layers of the ocean and incorporates the processes determining sea-surface temperature. Over the last several years, GFDL's numerical modeling work has shifted more toward climate-scale problems and the question of societal impacts on climate (e.g., the CO "greenhouse" effect). An important result of this work has been the construction of a three-dimensional model of the general circulation of the atmosphere that simulates the effect of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The model, although imperfect, is recognized as the most credible yet devised. Today, approximately 25 percent of the total GFDL program is devoted to studies of climate. The ERL's Miami-based Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories and the Seattle-based Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory are studying ocean circulation and dynamical processes, including temperature changes in the upper ocean caused by midlatitude storms, the generation of thermal anomalies in the equatorial regions, the role of eddies in the horizontal redistribution of heat, and vertical movement of energy and momentum into and out of the surface mixed ocean layer. A major climate research activity is conducted by the Air Resources Laboratory, which monitors and analyzes global levels of atmospheric trace constituents that have significant effect on the earth's radiation budget, such as carbon dioxide, ozone, aerosols, and water vapor. Other ERL laboratories are conducting research on various basic processes related to climate variation: the Aeronomy Laboratory on photochemical reactions related to climatically significant substances 31 such as ozone and freon; the Space Environment Laboratory on the variability and dynamics of solar plasma and its interaction with the earth environment; the National Hurricane and Experimental Meteorology Laboratory on quantitative estimation of rainfall patterns from satellite data (probably the most important factor in the interannual variability of thermal forcing of atmospheric circulation); and the Wave Propagation Laboratory on more effective techniques for observing and measuring the climatic behavior of the global ocean and atmosphere. 3. Problems and Proposed Approach To meet the objectives of this section stated earlier, three major thrusts of the research component are identified: model development, empirical studies, and model simulation experiments. a. Model Development In its narrowest conventional sense, climate is defined as the statistical properties of weather conditions at the earth's surface averaged over some period of time. The most important mean properties are precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and wind. The average regional and seasonal variations, and sometimes the diurnal and the interdiurnal variations, at the earth's surface are usually part of the climatic description. Yet, this information covers only a small part of the total "climatic system," which should include the atmosphere to very high levels, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the continents, and the biosphere — all interacting to produce the surface climate. The aim of climate dynamics research is to understand these interactions in terms of the component physical processes. These processes can then be stated in mathematical terms called "parameteri- zations," and their mutual interaction can be taken into account by combining the parameterizat ions into the fundamental conservation laws of geophysical fluid dynamics (i.e., for mass, momentum, heat, and water substance) to produce "comprehensive climate models." Before we can test the validity of these models and apply them to the solution of specific problems such as the prediction of future climatic states, the physical laws must be simplified so that very fast computers can be used to "solve" the complex system of mathematical equations. An experiment using such a model generally is known as a "simulation." The simulation generated by the model is compared with observations or "validated" and then is used to devise improvements to the model and to determine the types of additional observational data needed for still more precise validation of the model. Adequately validated models can be used, with known thresholds of confidence, to predict situations of social significance. Therefore, research in climate dynamics essentially depends on a thorough, well-balanced, comprehensive effort to identify important 32 processes influencing climate and to develop an understanding of their physical interaction with the large-scale atmospheric state variables: temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity. This quest for more accurate parameterizations is a continuing process and is one of the main hopes for understanding climate and applying this understanding to human planning. NOAA's climate dynamics research group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory will continue its broadly based work to refine and improve its repertoire of climate models. Since no computer is fast enough to allow the most general model to be applied to the entire variety of conceivable investigations, specially simplified models must be constructed to study particular questions. (i) Process Parameterization In the area of radiative heat transfer and absorption, the most difficult outstanding problems are in the role of clouds, ozone, and particulates. Also, atmospheric moisture and its phase changes due to large and small-scale dynamical processes are of great importance to the heat balance of the atmosphere. The nuances of cloud formation are thought to be especially significant to climatic stability. Particles such as sulfates, dust, and salts have an important effect on the efficiency of the condensation and cloud formation process. This is another reason why it is necessary to understand more fully the life cycle of atmospheric particulates. Carbon dioxide is a radiatively important atmospheric constituent, and climate may be sensitive to the current increase in CO , some of which is suspected to result from human activity. Modeling the life cycle of CO -- its biospheric and oceanic sources and sinks — will require a much more sophisticated understanding. Because of their tremendous heat capacity, the world's oceans are the thermal flywheel and memory of the climate system. Inadequate understanding of heat transport and storage mechanisms in the oceans is a critical obstacle to constructing more sophisticated climate models. Because the atmosphere is primarily aware of the ocean through its interfacial temperature, those oceanic processes that determine the sea-surface temperature are being studied. These include mesoscale eddies, coastal boundary currents, coastal upwelling, equatorial phenomena, and the upper mixed layer (for relatively fast climatic response), as well as the deep circulation (for long-term climatic response). In addition to exchanging heat, particulates, and CO with the atmosphere, the oceans exchange momentum and water substance. Field experiments such as EPOCS and the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDEX) will supply critical primary data on these important exchanges. 33 Another type of hydrospheric interaction results from continental hydrology. For example, surface soil moisture varies according to the interplay among precipitation, evapot ranspirat ion, runoff, and groundwater storage and flow. Improved hydrologic parameterizations are continually sought. Continental snow cover and sea ice are known to be important and variable influences on climate. The factors that determine their variability — melting, sublimation, and particularly the motion and distribution of sea ice — can be critical to the heat balance of the climate system. Small systematic differences between winter growth and summer melting must be discerned with great accuracy. Special efforts for parameterizations of greater fidelity are essential. Atmospheric phenomena, from cloud droplets to planetary waves, span 12 orders of magnitude of scale. Even the most sophisticated climate models can explicitly resolve at most a two order of magnitude subset of scale. The dynamical interaction of the "sub-grid scales" with the large-scale variations of climatic interest must somehow be parameterized. Some of the small-scale phenomena (e.g. , convection, fronts, and hurricanes) possess a great deal of energy and could have significant systematic effect on the large scale. Small-scale surface geographical features, such as steep mountains and coastlines, can also be important to the larger scale. This class of problems is largely unsolved and may prove to be a severe limiting factor. The problem of simplifying the role of baroclinic disturbances (large wind and temperature waves with lifetimes of several days to several weeks) in climate models requires special mention. Because of the computing demands for realistic portrayal of baroclinic disturbances, some simplification is essential for applications requiring very long simulation times (e.g., beyond a century). Since these disturbances result from complex interactions, they are particularly difficult to parameterize. Work on this problem will be continued. The finite representation of interactions over infinitesimal distances and time are normally accomplished by "finite difference" approximations that divide the three-dimensional atmosphere into small volumes of several hundred kilometers on the horizontal dimension and several kilometers on the vertical. An alternative method suitable for the atmosphere (but not the ocean with its irregular coastal boundaries) is to represent the horizontal variability by a truncated orthogonal spectral harmonic series suitable for the spherical earth. This has the further property of lending itself to longer, more stable, computational time steps than does the finite difference method. It is possible to do a simulation four or five times faster for comparable horizontal resolution. An additional advantage is that it provides, by retaining just a few spectral components, a natural, relatively high-precision method for constructing simple climate 34 models without severely disturbing the dynamics of the baroclinic modes. This method has great promise for further development and wide application. (ii) Comprehensive General Circulation Models The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been at the forefront of general circulation modeling since the late 1950*3. The evolutionary development of successive generations of General Circulation Models (GCM) has been accomplished by a broad and deep investment in the development of parameterizations of the physical process components, yielding increasingly comprehensive and more accurate climate models. This was only possible because of timely commensurate support of more powerful computers. The TI/ASC Computer now in operation at GFDL is about 30 thousand times faster than the IBM 701, which was used in the world's first, primitive-equation, general circulation simulation 20 years ago. But the models today are correspondingly more complex. Three comprehensive GCM's are now under development. Each is designed to support a class of climate-related research over the next 5-10 years. Further advances in comprehensive modeling are expected as a natural consequence of these three models. The model properties briefly described below represent the status expected in about FY 1979. The rapidity with which subsequent refinements can be implemented, both in physical sophistication and computation accuracy, will depend on the acquisition of a computer an order of magnitude more powerful than the TI/ASC. o Joint Ocean-Atmosphere Model . This model already represents the cumulative results of GFDL's long history in atmospheric and oceanic modeling and, more specifically, the pioneering work in general modeling begun about a decade ago. It will be suitable for simulation of climatic evolution on the order of decades and will be employed for validation and sensitivity experiments for which this time range is meaningful. The basic global model has the following properties: -- Mathemat ical . Atmosphere -- spectral harmonics, equivalent horizontal resolution is 500 km, 9 levels. Oceans — finite differences, 500-km resolution, 11 levels extending to sea bottom. — Physical . Will incorporate the most advanced parameteri- zations including variable cloudiness and its radiative feedback. — Simulation time on the TI/ASC . Ten computer hours per model year. 35 o Troposphere-Stratosphere-Mesosphere Model . This model is a natural extension of GFDL's earlier work in stratospheric dynamics and will form the means for investigating stratos- pheric dynamical-chemical interactions, particularly those involving ozone photochemistry. This will be the basis for assessing the climatic sensitivity of ozone-influencing human activity such as chlorofluoromethanes and fertilizers. The basic global model has the following properties: -- Mathematical . Finite-differencing in the horizontal with 500-km resolution, 40 levels extending to 80 km. -- Physical . Same as the atmospheric part of the above model but with self-determined ozone chemistry. -- Simulation time on the TI/ASC . Two hundred computer hours per model year (typical experiments are for several months or for a few years). o Extended-Range Prediction Model . This model is a successor to the class of models that demonstrated inherent atmospheric predictability to several weeks and has yielded actual predictive skill with real data in the two week range. It will be applied for predictions from actual initial conditions in the interval of several weeks to several months and, therefore, must include interaction with the oceanic mixed layer. The basic model has the following global properties: — Mathematical . Atmosphere — spectral harmonic, equivalent horizontal resolution is about 250 km, 18 levels. — Physical . Atmosphere ~ basically the same physics as the atmospheric part in the above model. Oceans — mixed layer variable depth, mainly vertical heat transport processes. — Simulation time on the TI/ASC . Three hundred computer hours per model year. (iii) Simple Climate Models Even computers an order of magnitude more powerful than those presently available do not permit simulation experiments with compre- hensive general circulation models beyond several decades to be accomplished in a reasonable amount of real time. The main obstacle is the computational resolution required to account explicitly for the energetically essential baroclinic eddies of the atmosphere. During the past 15 years, GFDL scientists have searched for means of parameterizing the dynamical interaction of these eddies that would 36 reduce computation time significantly. Although considerable progress has been made in parameterization research by the scientific community at large, the methods developed to date are not sufficiently reliable. They do have considerable didactic value, however. There is almost a continuous distribution of so-called simple climate models. Here, we have distinguished' three main classes; however, it should be assumed that intermediate models in the hierarchy can be defined. o Highly Spectrally Truncated Models . It appears that a valuable computational savings can be realized by using highly spectrally truncated ocean-atmosphere models. These models are designed to retain the essential dynamics of the baroclinic eddies and make feasible simulation in the range of several decades to several centuries. Such models retain an ability to discriminate original climatic structures, but not with the precision afforded by fully comprehensive models. o Statistical-Dynamical Models . Within their acknowledged limitations, statistical-dynamical models (sometimes referred to as one- or two-dimensional models), when they prove more reliable, will be useful for simulating climatic intervals of millennia and beyond. On the other hand, sensitivity experiments relevant to climatic variations of geological time scales are often addressable with more precise models. The "energy balance" models are among the simplest of those classes. o Radiat ive-Convective Equilibrium Models . These truly one-dimensional models are useful for preliminary insight into climatic response to "external" impulses, which are primarily radiatively controlled. GFDL's early work (1965) on climate sensitivity to CO used such a model. b. Empirical Studies: Global Data Analyses and Field Experi- ments The goal of empirical studies is to provide information and insight into climatic processes and their interaction by analysis of observations. Empirical studies include both the design and execution of experiments to elucidate climatic processes or regional influences on climate and the analyses of global data sets that define the climate system and its dynamics. The results of specific experiments will enable us to understand how the processes studied affect climate dynamics and help to parameterize these processes correctly into climate models. Diagnostic studies of data sets give new insight into climate interactions and permit verification of models against observations. 37 (i) The Global Climate System The evolution of improved understanding and models of the global climate system, which will provide the basis for many of the applications and services described earlier in this plan, must be built on a foundation of global observations and analyses. Our basic aim is to establish as accurately as possible the actual states of the system, including the oceans and including quantitative descriptions of the physical and chemical variables related to climate change, over the periods for which adequate data are available. o Historical Data Analysis . The quantitative information now available on the evolution of climate conditions is derived primarily from the global network of land surface observations and marine shipboard observations acquired during the past 100 years and upper air data acquired since 1950. These data have been used by NOAA scientists in a number of studies, including examination of long-term variations in surface and upper air temperatures. Analyses of this type provide the basic quantitative documentation of the temporal and spatial scales of climate variation over periods of several years or longer, yield empirical relationships among climatic variables, and uncover t eleconnect ions between climatic events widely separated in time or space that may be of potential forecast value. They serve as important background information and often provide the motivation for the design of specific regional and process studies such as EPOCS. Analyses also provide information for calibrating proxy data (such as tree ring records) in terms of climatic parameters, thus allowing the synthesis of a much longer climatic record. Acquisition and analysis of proxy records is required for climate- modeling simulation experiments. The assembly, updating, editing, reformatting, and compaction of comprehensive global historical data bases, to be undertaken as a joint NCAR-NOAA effort, will provide the input for significant new studies of multiyear climatic variations. To exploit this opportunity, NOAA's Center for Experiment Design and Data Analysis will conduct, in tandem with the historical data set development, a systematic program of data analysis aimed at providing an improved description of dominant 38 climate variations on time scales of several years or more. Specific attention will be given to the hydrologic cycle and processes related to large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction. Atmospheric General Circulation . The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of ERL collects, processes, analyzes, and interprets the best available contemporary global data sets. The aerological data sets are analyzed to determine the structure, transport properties, and energetics of the real global atmospheric system. Studies are conducted to determine not only the average properties but also the regional, interhemi spheric, seasonal, and interannual variability. While these studies are important and useful in their own right, they are largely motivated by the need to validate and improve the fidelity of models. It has long been recognized that a massive international effort would be required to acquire a truly adequate global data set — one that would define the system sufficiently well to answer many of the most important questions in model development and verification. The Global Weather Experiment (FGGE), now approaching its operational phase, has been designed specifically to obtain a momentary (one year) picture of the global weather system. The FGGE can be considered a basic dynamical experiment for the annual climate cycle on a global scale. Its success will provide an essential step in the evolution of climate models. NOAA is the lead U.S. agency for the FGGE. Oceanic Interaction . At the longer time scales associated with climate, the world oceans and their interaction with the atmosphere assume a central importance. The oceans absorb and store vast amounts of heat from the sun; transport heat through currents, horizontal gyre circulations, vertical abyssal circulation, and movement of ice; and exchange heat with the atmosphere through turbulent and cloud convective processes. The exchange of water between ocean and atmosphere not only is a critical link in the hydrologic cycle but is generally the dominant component of the heat flux (through the latent heat content of evaporated water). Finally, the oceans store and exchange other substances critical to climate, such as carbon dioxide. 39 Global ocean data is notoriously inadequate. Nevertheless, it has been possible to describe and study some of the main features of the ocean circulations and to deduce a few of the exchange and transport processes by analyzing atmospheric and thermal radiation observations. For example, the amount of heat transported by ocean currents has been estimated recently as a residual from earth radiation budget and atmospheric heat transport studies. Studies of global-scale ocean interactions must be expanded and intensified as contemporary observational techniques begin to yield additional sources of global data. New satellite observing systems, such as those on NASA's SEASAT research satellites, and new data collection techniques, such as drifting buoys reporting through satellites, are examples. Other examples may be found in Section D. NOAA plans to conduct a major effort in the analysis and interpretation of these new global data sources and to use them to accelerate the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. o Radiation and the Global Energy Balance . -- Cloud dynamics . Clouds are a major factor in determining the planetary radiation balances. Changes in cloudiness cause variations in global mean surface temperature; these variations, in turn, feed back to change cloudiness. How this process occurs (and its coupling to other climate features) is a major question in climate theory that can be answered only with extensive analysis of observations and model studies. The Stratus Experiment, an effort proposed as part of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP), will study stratus clouds and their interaction with atmospheric dynamics and radiation. NOAA will be involved in further definition of these studies. — Ozone . Absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone is primarily responsible for the stable stratification of the atmosphere above the tempera- ture minimum at the tropopause. The largest effect is solar heating of the stratosphere above 30 km. However, changes in stratospheric flux and/or the ozone distribution can have significant effects in the troposphere because the stratosphere 40 and troposphere are coupled both radiatively and dynamically. NOAA will continue to study these chemical reaction processes at the Aeronomy Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, and through modeling and simulation studies at GFDL. — Carbon dioxide . The potential impact of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel combustion and other processes is the subject of several other planning documents and reports (e.g., Energy and Climate by the Geophysical Research Board of the National Research Council). NOAA's Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change Program (GMCC) conducted by ERL's Air Resources Laboratory has played an important role in identify- ing and determining the seriousness of the "CO problem." The continuing and expanding GMCC project for monitoring CO and other critical climate parameters, such as particles and ozone, at a network of global baseline stations is outlined in Section D. One of the major objectives of the GMCC analysis effort is to understand quantitatively the rate of growth of CO in the atmosphere during the past 19-year observational period and to make reliable projections of future levels of C0_ to the middle of the next century, based on various scenarios of fossil fuel combustion. This involves understanding the factors that determine the partitioning of C0 ? between the oceans, biosphere, and atmosphere and will involve collabora- tive research efforts with other NOAA components and federal agencies. A Project Development Plan for this project has been prepared. (ii) Field Experiments EPOCS . A NOAA program plan has been developed for study of the equatorial Pacific — the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies. This program is planned to begin in 1979, simultaneously with NORPAX and FGGE observations. The goal of EPOCS is to understand the interannual fluctuations in the intensity and spatial distribution of heat input to the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific. These fluctuations may be near the "heart of the problem," for no other interannual ocean-atmosphere variability is known 41 to be of comparable magnitude and, hence, possibly having such a significant influence on the midlati- tude climate. Examining a key center of action in the climate system offers the best chance of early and significant progress from the investment of limited resources. The equatorial Pacific Ocean is believed to be such a center. The objectives of the EPOCS program are to: Statistically identify empirical relationships among oceanic and atmospheric characteristics in the equatorial Pacific from evidence contained in records of historical observations. Describe the temporal and spatial structure of the complicated ocean current system, the temperature and salinity fields, and the surface winds over the equatorial Pacific. -- Accurately model the processes of upwelling, waves, and advection that determine the vertical flux of heat and momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific. — Determine the energy spectrum of the equatorial Pacific as a function of ocean depth in order to parameterize turbulent transfer mechanisms for incorporation into numerical climate models. The EPOCS program will be carried out through three primary research components: — Data base studies . — A major field experiment . — Modeling and analysis work . Empirical studies will be conducted to identify significant meteorological and oceanic variations having multiannual and decadal time scales, geographic coherency, apparent teleconnect ions, and other potentially predictive relationships. These studies depend on large volumes of data gathered over extended periods of time. The data base to be used will consist of over 50 million observations of sea-surface temperature, wind, and air temperature collected by merchant ships over the past 100 years. 42 In the first year of the EPOCS program, a major field experiment will be initiated in the equatorial Pacific to gain better knowledge of the substantial energy transfer processes operating in that region. The magnitudes and rates of these transfer processes are related to various phenomena such as the periodic fluctuation and meandering of the equatorial currents, the downward transfer and dissipation of momentum and thermal energy by means of vertically propagating waves, frictional losses due to current shear, and convective transport due to upwelling. Measurements and observations will be made using vertical mooring arrays, drifting buoys, current profilers, NOAA vessels, ships-of-opportuni- ty, satellites, and aircraft. In addition to the empirical studies and field experiment just described, modeling and analysis activities will be undertaken during the EPOCS program to assist in synthesizing and integrating the results obtained. The specific purposes of the modeling and analysis activities are to incorporate new data sets and parameterization techniques into existing ocean-atmosphere numerical models, to improve understanding of important physical processes and their interrelationships that operate in the equatorial region, and to develop new boundary layer models applicable to this regime. NOAA scientists are working with the International Council of Scientific Union's Scientific Committee on Oceanographic Research in planning field experiments (e.g., FGGE and NORPAX) in adjacent areas of the Pacific. These projects will provide substantial benefits to the EPOCS experiment in the form of complementary atmospheric and oceanographic data sets. However, the EPOCS measurement systems should be deployed before the Global Weather Experiment's special observation periods in early 1979. Parameterization of Air-Sea Transfers . As noted earlier, to extend weather predictions beyond a few days requires global numerical models that incorporate correct paramet erizat ions of surface stress, evaporation, and heat transfer over the oceans as well as the land. A number of studies have been made of possible mechanisms by which air- ^3 sea interaction processes might significantly influence the large-scale circulation and atmospheric convergence in the boundary layer, but most measurements have been taken during weak winds. The priority, therefore, is to measure oceanic and atmospheric conditions when winds are strong, since air-sea transfers are proportional to the square (or even higher powers) of the wind speed and high wind conditions cover a significant percentage of the oceans at any given time. A Storm Transfer and Response Experiment (STREX) has been proposed to provide the data from which idealized models of storm transfer and boundary layer response can be developed. The objective would be to determine air-sea transfers of momentum, heat, and water vapor and the accompany- ing changes in the boundary layer of the atmosphere and ocean during the passage of mature North Pacific storms. For successful operation, the STREX program may require a significant commitment from NOAA. Satellite measurements of radiation, temperature, and wind stress; aircraft measurements of the atmospheric boundary layer and cloud parameters; and ocean measurements with drifting and moored buoys will be required. The ongoing work in NOAA on remote sensing of precipitation could be an important contribution to such a study. The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Energy Balance . We are not ready to establish a monitoring program for ocean heat flux. In fact, we must regard the present lack of in situ observa- tions of any of the major transports of the ocean (heat, angular momentum, and water) and consequent lack of knowledge of the processes responsible as primary problems for future consideration. However, by beginning the proper pilot studies now, we should be able, over the next few years, to gain the information needed to launch an observational study of the poleward fluxes in the ocean. Two major projects are emerging as examples of large field programs that could gather information crucial to the design of a pilot heat flux study: one, a study of the interior variability of a subtropical oceanic gyre, which could be conducted 44 in either the Pacific or the Atlantic Ocean, and two, a study of the mesoscale variability of the western boundary of the Gulf Stream, a logical continuation of POLYMODE and other studies of the Gulf Stream system. NOAA could make an important contribution to each of these field efforts. At mosphere-Qcean-Ice Int eract ion . A major problem in climate modeling is lack of understanding of the role of sea ice in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. A priority objective in the development of models is to parameterize sea ice dynamics and heat and moisture exchanges with the atmosphere. Theories of climate have for many years suggested a positive feedback role for ice (with respect to global warming or cooling). It now appears feasible, through new observational techniques and modeling capabilities, to design experiments specifically to examine sea ice and its interaction with the atmosphere and ocean as part of the feedback process. Such experiments would provide information critical to developing model parameterizations. The GARP Polar Subprogram, in which NOAA could play an important role, is a first step toward a critical test of the role of sea ice in climate dynamics. The specific objectives of the program are to measure the large-scale motion of sea ice in the Arctic and in the Antarctic and to use these results to improve existing models of ice dynamics. In addition, boundary layer processes in both atmosphere and ocean are to be measured in the presence of ice, and large-scale energy exchange is to be estimated. The Polar Subprogram will be international and will involve several institutions and agencies from the United States. It is expected to begin during the FGGE and to continue throughout the 1980's. Specific NOAA resources to be used in the program are polar data buoys, satellite monitoring and ground truth studies, and boundary layer measurements from ships and aircraft. Diagnostic studies and numerical modeling of sea ice processes by NOAA and other scientists will also be a major part of the program. ^5 On the longer time scales, the dynamics of large ice sheets on land may be important to climatic variations. There is some evidence that large ice sheets, such as that which covered most of North America 15,000 years ago, are subject to episodic "surges" that may raise and lower world sea level by as much as 50 feet. The development and validation of numerical models to simulate this behavior is important to understanding past changes of climate and for anticipating possible future events of this kind. c. Simulation Experiments (i) Validation and Predictability The similarity of climate models to the real geophysical system can be validated only through simulation experiments that can be verified against observations. Validation is confined mainly to contemporary times for which near-global data for most elements of the climate system are available. In general, all three classes of comprehensive models -- the coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere model, the 40-level troposphere- stratosphere-mesosphere model, and the high resolution atmosphere-ocean mixed layer forecast model -- must undergo exhaustive validation tests. The various simplified climate models can be validated against the comprehensive model simulations as well as against observations. Sufficiently long and numerous simulation experiments are necessary to establish the statistical behavior of each of the comprehensive models in terms of average seasonal properties; that is, to determine what is common from year to year. Exceedingly important are the regional variations, particularly interhemi spheric differences. Each model's "natural variability" must also be determined to gage it3 similarity to nature. It is essential to establish the model's statistical differences from year to year. This calibration is needed to assess the significance of differences between necessarily limited control and perturbation sensitivity experiments; in other words, to be able to discern the response signal from the noise of natural variability. A severe validation test comes from prediction experiments using real initial conditions for time ranges where the initial state still has some significant influence. As the forecast time range increases, the predictive skill will more likely be in appropriate space- and/or time-averaged properties. It is in this way that models have been developed over the past 15 years to show significant skill beyond one or two days. Further sophistication of the models extended their viability and skill to a week and somewhat beyond. Recent experiments have shown residual significance at a month, particularly for singular 46 phenomena such as tropospheric blocking and the breakdown of the stratospheric circulation. Experiments to test the utility of these models in forecasting monthly climate will continue. Higher resolution global models that employ improved process parameterizations (such as turbulent exchange) and allow for interaction with the mixed upper layer of the ocean will be used in experiments for seasons and then to a few years. The object is not only to validate the models but also to determine what statistical properties of the geophysical system inherently possess significant predictability. For example, with a sufficient repertoire of such experiments, the dynamics of the monsoon and its interannual differences, the nature of anomalies in precipitation, and the predictability of such climatic phenomena can be explored in depth. Due to the necessary physical and mathematical precision of the models and the length of the experiments, significant progress in this modeling work will require a sixth generation (about 300 million instructions per second) computer. (ii) Sensitivity Experiments This broad class of simulation experiments provides essential insight into the response of validated climate models to natural perturbations in the boundary conditions or constituents of the atmosphere. In many cases, these conditions are external to the climate system, such as solar radiation, orbital factors, and volcanic dusts. In other situations, the control conditions are determined by elements of the climate system itself (e.g. , sea-surface temperature and the albedo of snow and ice) but are treated as controlled external conditions. Normally, two or more experiments are performed in which the condition in question is altered. Each experiment must be sufficiently long in simulated time to allow the altered climatic state to settle into its statistical equilibrium, and then the sensitivity of the response is assessed. This type of experiment also plays a key role in assessing the sensitivity of climate to man-induced changes in boundary or constituent conditions (e.g., a study of the response of the model climate to a much larger CO concentration or to the continued release of chlorof luoromethanes) . The degree to which the model response can be taken to be indicative of the real climate system depends on how the model deficiencies relate to the sensitivity of the perturbation dynamics in question. Experiments with paleoclimatic reconstructions fall into this class of sensitivity experiments because they generally are for extreme climatic states but are not completely defined. These experiments can then determine the consistency of one part of the data set against another for a large parameter range of the climate model. For example, geologists recently reconstructed the sea-surface 47 temperature, the snow cover, and the aridity for the last ice age, 18,000 years ago. A sophisticated atmospheric general circulation model was used with the specified sea-surface temperature to determine the corresponding climate, including the precipitation, snow, and deserts. These in turn were compared against the paleo-geological reconstruction with some success. Similarly, simple climate models have been employed in a series of sensitivity experiments to verify the Milankovitch hypothesis of long-term climatic variation due to changing orbital factors. (iii) Tracer Dynamics Models can also be used to simulate the long-term, large- scale dispersion of trace substances in the atmosphere and in the oceans. Where observations of their distributions are known, such as atmospheric tritium and ozone or oceanic strontium and dissolved oxygen, the experiments provide an independent measure of validation of the model, as well as valuable insight into the processes contribu- ting to transport and diffusion. The experiments then become increasing- ly valuable tools to apply to predicting the dispersion of pollutants. 48 D. OBSERVATIONS 1 . Objectives The objective of the observations part of the NOAA climate program is to provide data at the appropriate space and time scales needed for: o Current awareness of climatic fluctuations. o Climate diagnosis and prediction. o Validation of climate models. o Determination of inadvertent climate modification. The climatic changes occurring at local, regional, and global scales are all interrelated, and a multitude of observations are needed at various time and space resolutions to understand the processes. In general, the climate program needs two basic sets of observa- tions. For awareness, monitoring, diagnosis, and projection of climatic fluctuations, the need is for continuing, homogeneous, very long-term observations covering the entire globe. For detailed studies of physical climate processes, intensive observations for limited periods and areas may often be sufficient. These limited types of observations are most often provided by special field observational programs, plans for which were discussed earlier in Section C. In addition to the traditional surface and upper air meteorological observations now being obtained from the existing network of land stations, there are certain other climate variables requiring observa- tion on a regular basis. These are set forth in the U.S. Climate Program Plan and are reproduced in Table 3 along with their respective observational techniques. These observational techniques can be divided into three basic categories, according to station or platform type, as follows: o Satellite or space-based systems. o Earth-based systems. o Ocean-based systems. Because these categories parallel existing NOAA programs, organizational components, and technological disciplines, it is convenient to similarly group NOAA's observational initiatives for the climate program. Thus, the specific objectives of the NOAA climate observation program can be stated as follows: 49 TABLE 3 (from U.S. Climate Plan) •Observational Requirement s for Climate Research Variable Techniques Oceans Sea-Surface Temperature Ships, Buoys, Satellite Heat Content of the Upper Layer Buoys, Ships Wind Stress Satellite, Buoys, Ships Sea Level Island Station, Satellite Near-Surface Currents Buoys, Ships, Island Station Deep Ocean Circulation Buoys, Ships Atmosphere Water Vapor Ground Station, Satellite Carbon Dioxide Ground Station, Aircraft Ozone Distribution Ground Station, Satellite, Rocket Tropospheric Aerosols Ground Station, Aircraft Atmospheric Turbidity Ground Station Stratospheric Aerosols Ground Station, Satellite Earth Radiation Budget Total Solar Flux Satellite Solar UV Flux Satellite Net Radiation Budget Satellite Cloudiness Balloon, Satellite, Ground Station Surface Temperature (land & ice) Satellite Surface Albedo Satellite, Ground Station Surface Net Radiation Ground Station HvdrolOKV and PreciDitation Precipitation over Oceans Island Station, Buoys, Satellite Soil Moisture Satellite, Ground Station Water Runoff Ground Station Ground Water Ground Station Snow and Ice Fields Snow Extent Satellite, Ground Station Sea-Ice Concentration (% open water) Satellite Sea-Ice Thickness Undeveloped Sea-Ice Melt Satellite Sea-Ice Drift Buoys, Markers Polar Ice Sheet Thickness Aircraft Polar Ice Sheet Deformation Markers, Satellite Polar Ice Sheet Boundary Change Satellite *In addition to traditional observations of surface air temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, cloudiness, and precipitation presently being obtained from existing stations. 50 o Support, in cooperation with NASA, the development of operation- al space-based instruments and systems to monitor climate variables, including earth radiation budget, ozone concentration and distribution, sea-surface temperature, snow cover and sea ice extent, cloud distribution, surface temperature, surface albedo, precipitation, soil moisture, and winds. NASA will select and pursue promising techniques for research and development. It is essential that NOAA be kept cognizant of the scope and content of the NASA R&D effort to determine potential applications of new techniques to the climate monitoring system. NOAA must, in turn, keep NASA fully apprised of its monitoring requirements so that NASA can incorporate these, as appropriate, into its R&D program. o Upgrade and augment the existing network of earth-based climate observing facilities for acquiring data on atmospheric trace constituents, radiation, and other measurements. o Develop and establish a global ocean monitoring system, organized on an international basis and utilizing cooperative surface ships, ocean data buoys, and other appropriate ocean-based platforms and techniques. 2. Current Activities Many of the observations required for the climate program are now available (or soon will be) from the surface network of stations, ships, and buoys; satellites; and other instrumented platforms such as balloons, aircraft, and rockets. Expansions of the observational program under the World Weather Watch (WWW) Program and the FGGE will provide many of the standard atmospheric measurements such as tempera- ture, surface pressure, wind velocity, and relative humidity. Most of these observations may serve as a basis for indirectly calculating other climate quantities such as atmospheric heat sources, energy transformations, and quantitative cloudiness estimates. In addition, there are observations that are needed primarily for climate purposes. Some of these are already being made, but most need expansion or improvement in spatial and temporal coverage and in accuracy. Current NOAA activities are classified into the aforementioned three categories; that is, space-based, earth-based, and ocean-based observations. a. Space-Based Observations The weather satellites launched in the 1960's provided much new, but mostly qualitative, information about weather and climate over most of the globe. Satellites launched in the 1970's provided more quantitative information about the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity, winds (from cloud motion vectors), sea-surface temperature, 51 and the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system. Even though these systems were not primarily designed for climate studies, data received from present operational and research satellites are being used in climate studies and for the evaluation and design of new satellite instruments. In addition, many variables useful for climate studies (Table 3) can be derived from present operational and experimental satellite systems (e.g., surface temperature and surface albedo from the infrared and visible channels). In this regard techniques are being developed to improve the current accuracy (+1.5 C) of satellite-de- rived sea-surface temperatures to about +1.0 C (and relative o — accuracy of +0.5 C) using the multiple channel approach. Techniques are also being developed to estimate precipitation over oceans from infrared, visible, and microwave observations of cloudiness. It is also possible to derive radiation budget parameters and other quantitative information required for regional climatological studies from geostationary satellites, although this is not being pursued at this time due to resource limitations. b. Earth-Based Observations NOAA's EDS and NWS cooperate in managing and operating a network of about 4800 mostly cooperative stations, which obtain precipitation and temperature data for climatic purposes. Within this network, a 20-station net of Reference Climatological Stations, selected to monitor climate change at locations free from environmental changes other than climate, provides long-term benchmark observations and a reference for observations from locations serving other requirements. A 24-hour Climate Network of approximately 180 NWS and Federal Aviation Administration stations constitutes a national grid of fairly uniform coverage to provide dependable records of diurnal variations of climatic elements. Another specific NOAA effort that falls under this category is the Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change (GMCC) program, which represents the U.S. part of an international effort to carefully monitor long-term changes in the earth's atmosphere. Its purpose is to provide the quantitative data that are required for predictions of climate change. These consist of (a) dependable measurements of existing amounts of natural and manmade contaminants in the atmosphere, (b) determination of the rates of increase of these contaminants, and (c) measurements of the atmospheric properties that are affected by them. As part of the GMCC program, NOAA operates observatories at Point Barrow, Alaska; Mauna Loa, Hawaii; American Samoa; and South Pole, Antarctica. Personnel at these four stations gather and analyze data on ozone concentrations, carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocar- bons, aerosols, and other climate-related parameters. A more complete 52 summary of the measurements currently being taken at the Mauna Loa observatory is given in Table 4. An important part of the GMCC program deals with the measurement and prediction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, whose inexorable increase may lead to significant change in global temperature within the next 25 to 50 years unless projected fossil fuel combustion rates are radically reduced. This monitoring program conducted over the past two decades, together with a NOAA numerical modeling effort, was largely responsible for the credence now given to the CO -warming hypothesis as a serious danger to the global climate. Another critical aspect of the GMCC monitoring effort deals with ozone distributions. It is noteworthy that the World Meteorological Organization has recently recommended that the NOAA spectrophotometer located in the Air Resources Laboratory at Boulder, Colorado, serve as the primary reference standard for total ozone observations in the atmosphere. c. Ocean-Based Observations At this time, ocean-based surface observations are derived largely from surface shipping. NOAA's Cooperative Ship Program consists of 1780 merchant ships, 350 U.S. Navy commissioned ships, 67 Navy ships under the control of the Military Sealift Command, 53 Coast Guard Cutters, 30 NOAA ships, and 26 miscellaneous ships including university-controlled research ships. These vessels transmit information on true wind speed and direction, visibility, precipitation, sea level barometric pressure, air temperature, sea-surface temperature, cloud cover, ocean waves, and ice conditions. In addition, a number of experimental buoys are deployed in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico as part of the Data Collection System (DCS). Data from these buoys are collected by geostationary satellites and relayed to a ground receiving station for further processing and dissemination. Between 90 and 99 percent of the buoy data is successfully received by analysis and forecast centers ashore. The buoys provide information on wind speed and direction, air temperature, sea level pressure, surface water tempera- ture, wave height and period, spectral data on waves, and water temperatures at various depths from 10 to 300 meters. 3. Problems When one considers the spatial and temporal domain that a global climate observing system must accommodate, it is quickly apparent that the cost to establish and maintain a system of such magnitude and complexity is beyond the resources of any one nation. The first and foremost problem, then, is how to develop an international climate observing system and the institutional arrangements that would facilitate its implementation. 53 TABLE 4 Summary of Sampling Programs at Mauna toa Monitoring Programs Instrument Sampling Frequency Data Record Gases Carbon dioxide Evacuated Glass Flask. (S10) Applied Physics infrared gas analyzer (S10) URAS-2 infrared gas analyzer 2 /month Continuous Continuous Oct Oct June 1958 - 1958 - 1974 - present present present Surface ozone Electrochemical concentra- tion cell (ECO Continuous Sept 1973 - present Total ozone Daslbi ozone meter Dobson spectrophotometer Continuous Discrete July Oct 1975 - 1957 - present present Fluorocarbons Evacuated flask 1/week Sept 1973 - present Aerosols Atmospheric particulates (height distribution) Lidar 1/week Apr 1973 - present Condensation nuclei Gardner counter General Electric counter Pollak counter Discrete Continuous Discrete Sept Sept July 1967 - 1973 - 1973 - present present present Optical properties Four-wavelength nephelometer Continuous Jan 1974 - present Solar Radiation Global spectral irradiance Ultraviolet radiometer Four Eppley pyranometers Eppley bulb-type pyranometer Continuous Continuous Continuous Apr May Jan 1972 - 1972 - 1958 - present present Sept 1975 Direct spectral irradiance Eppley normal incidence pyrheliometer Continuous Jan 1958 - present Water vapor Foskett Continuous July 1967 - present Solar aureola Aureola camera 1/week June 1974 - present Meteorology Temperature /deupoint Hydro thermograph Continuous 1955 - present Pressure Barograph Continuous 1955 - present Precipitation 8" raingage Daily Dec 1956 - present Tipping bucket gage Continuous Dec 1956 - present Precipitation chemistry-GMCC pH meter, bridge, electrodes Discrete Oct 1974 - present Winds Anemometer Continuous Dec 1956 - present Cirrus clouds Lidar 1/week Apr 1973 - present Cooperative Programs Carbon monoxide-Max Planck Inst. Chemical reaction with Hg° Continuous Aug 1973 - present S0 2 , N0 X , NH 3 , H 2 S NCAR Chemical bubbler system 1/2 weeks - July 1975 S0 2 , N0 2 - EPA Chemical bubbler system 1/2 weeks Aug 1971 - present Total surface parti- culates - ERDA Hi-volume filter Intermittent 1970 's - present Turbidity - EPA Dual wavelength sunphotometer Discrete 1960 's - present Precipitation chemistry- EPA Misco collector Discrete Mar 1973 - present Rain Sr 90 - ERDA Ion exchange column 1 /month Nov 1955 - present Aerosol particles for analysis - CSIRO Impactor/precipitator Discrete Aug 1971 - present Surface Tritium - u. of Miami Molecular sieve 2-day averages Aug 1971 - present Solar Radiation Erythema Spectrum- Ttaple Univ. Ultraviolet meter Continuous Dec 1973 - present 54 Our present observational capabilities are notoriously deficient in spatial coverage and continuity; this is particularly true of the oceans. Whereas terrestrial climate-scale variability can be traced back with relative detail and reliability for possibly 100 years, no equivalent data base exists for the ocean. For example, data are available from only the two percent of the oceans where conventional shipping routes exist. Reliable sea-surface temperatures observed at coastal or island stations, with few exceptions, go back only a few decades, and salinity records that may also serve as signatures of processes in the ocean are even scarcer. Climate-scale variability in the speed and transport of major ocean currents, which must play a key role in the ocean-atmosphere feedback system, has only been observed in isolated places and for restricted time intervals. a. Space-Based Observations Satellite systems have opened new and important opportunities for observing climate-scale processes. With their truly global perspective, they offer tremendous potential as platforms for a variety of remote sensing devices and as data collection and communica- tion relay stations. However, satellite data currently available have relatively limited use for climatological applications because of uncertainties in the calibration of satellite instruments, varia- tions in the methods of retrieval of data from raw measurements, and constraints on orbital characteristics and spectral and spatial resolutions of sensors. Another concern relates to intercomparison and calibration of the various observing systems. Intercomparisons between sea-surface temperatures (SST) derived from satellites, ships, and buoy data, for example, are still not better than +1 to 1.5 C, The basic problem here is that the parameter called "sea-surface temperature," as measured by each of these systems, is not the same physical quantity. Whereas the satellite SST is the radiance temperature originating from the surface microlayer, buoy and ship temperatures are bulk (and in situ) values of ocean temperature taken at varying depths ranging from a few centimeters to 10 meters or so. b. Earth-Based Observations Although there is a fairly well-developed network of land stations for observing weather variables, the stations suitably equipped to monitor certain climatic variables are few in number and far apart. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) considers the minimum monitoring program at a baseline climate observatory to include: o Carbon dioxide. o Turbidity. 55 o Chemical composition of precipitation. o Solar radiation. Presently, only four U.S. observatories satisfy this minimum criterion. Australia, U.S.S.R., and Canada are the only other countries with observatories that even partially meet these require- ments. Clearly, the number of suitably equipped baseline stations must be increased. c. Ocean-Based Observations Long-term, ocean-based, in situ monitoring is perhaps the least advanced and poses many formidable challenges. So little is known of oceanic processes and atmosphere-ocean interactions that even the required spatial and temporal sampling frequency is uncertain. Beyond this, the ocean is a relatively hostile environment that does not yield its secrets easily or cheaply. For example, although surface meteorological and subsurface temperature measurements from buoys moored in the deep ocean are relatively straightforward and demonstrated reliability has been achieved on a systems basis with small numbers of buoys, there are still problems to be overcome with regard to subsurface salinity and current profiles through the mixed layer. Neither has been demonstrated in terms of required accuracy, long-term stability, and reliability. Then, too, there is the question of point measurements versus measurements that integrate over extended path lengths or areas and intervals of time. Without question, the former is necessary for obtaining long time series of data at single locations, and the technology is fairly well along. Yet, the cost of installing and maintaining many such stations in the open ocean is prohibitive. On the other hand, measurement techniques that integrate over large areas (e.g., ocean surveillance radar to detect surface currents) or over long path lengths (e.g., reciprocal acoustic transmissions to measure subsurface currents), while potentially more cost effective, have not yet been proven to be feasible. The Cooperative Ship Program is clearly an economical approach to long-term, large-scale, ocean-based monitoring. However, much of the data suffers from the fact that the ship messages are transmitted almost exclusively by antiquated CW rather than over dedicated communi- cations channels. Messages are delayed and errors are introduced due to manual handling, plain language reports, poorly understood procedures, overloading at synoptic times, and misdirected transmissions. As a result, only 50 percent of the approximately 60,000 marine weather observations taken each month reach the Weather Service's National Meteorological Center. 56 4. Proposed Approach a. Space-Based Observations NOAA will concentrate its efforts in this area on developing instruments capable of monitoring the earth's radiation budget, atmospheric trace constituents, and several climatically important surface variables. However, because of the scope and complexity of observational requirements (many of which have yet to be resolved) and the long lead times associated with the development of satellite technology, implementation of an operational, space-based, climate- observing system can only be accomplished on a gradual basis through the collaborative efforts of national and international agencies such as NOAA, NASA, WMO, and the European Space Agency. The World Meteorological Organization and the Joint Organizing Committee of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) are active in the area of weather and climate. The four satellite-opera- ting members — U.S., U.S.S.R., Japan, and the European Space Agency -- are coordinating their weather-related satellite programs through the WMO's Executive Committee Panel of Experts on Satellites and their respective geosynchronous satellite activities through the Coordinating Committee for Geostationary Meteorological Satellites. The ICSU Committee for Space Research Working Group 6 is also defining the role of satellites and has prepared a plan specifying the require- ments for climate variables measurable from satellites. NOAA will continue to participate in these forums to ensure the timely establishment of appropriate system requirements and observation- al procedures and to facilitate the exchange of compatible data sets. NOAA will work with NASA to ensure the future availability of an operational space-based climate observation system. NOAA's initial requirements have been established as follows: o An earth radiation budget instrument system for long-term observations, properly integrated with surface-based observa- tion systems. o Satellite techniques for monitoring such atmospheric trace constituents as ozone and aerosols. o Data processing, analysis, and interpretation techniques for satellite-observed climate variables. o An improved satellite capability to provide surface temperatures over land, oceans, and ice. o Microwave instruments for incorporation on operational satellites to monitor precipitation over oceans, snow and 57 ice, and oceanographic parameters (e.g., sea state and surface temperature). o Long-term precision monitoring of solar output. o Shutt le/spacelab capabilities as appropriate for climate observations. Specific actions have been initiated or are under consideration with regard to many of the items mentioned above. Two major instrument systems, the Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) System and the Solar Backscatt ered Ultraviolet (SBUV) System, will be added to operational satellites for the climate program as a joint NOAA-NASA effort . (i) Earth Radiation Budget Instrument System The ERBI, planned for flight on NOAA operational polar-orbiting spacecraft, will be the primary means for obtaining basic observations of the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and the radiation emanating from the sun ("solar constant"). It will measure the solar radiation reflected to space from the earth-atmosphere (albedo) and, in combination with the direct solar measurement, will allow for measurement of solar energy absorbed in the earth-atmosphere system. It will also observe the long-wave radiation emitted from the earth-atmosphere to space. Taken together, the solar and long-wave radiation measurements provide basic information on net radiative heating, which drives the atmospheric and oceanic circulations and thereby plays a basic controlling role in climate fluctuations. Natural and man-made variations in cloudiness, snow, ice, dust, vegetation, and other surface and atmospheric characteristics modulate this radiative energy exchange with space. Consequently, understanding the complex feedback influences of these factors and the radiative energy variations is fundamental to improving climate analysis and projection. The ERBI will measure radiation on several spatial scales from a broad field of view (several thousand kilometers) for very large spatial and global averages down to a narrow field of view (50-100 km) for measurements of regional radiation budgets on the scale of 250 km. NASA will procure the initial prototype instrument and NOAA will procure follow-on instruments in the series. NOAA also supports the NASA ERBI experiment on ERBS-A/AEM which, because of its planned 56 inclined orbit, will provide needed measurements of equatorial and midlatitude radiation budget components at different local times. Such an experiment is necessary for evaluating the significance of any diurnal biases prior to establishing operational ERB monitoring requirements. 58 (ii) Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet System Tne SBUV, also planned for flight on NOAA operational polar- orbiting spacecraft, is designed to measure total ozone in a vertical column and the vertical profile of the ozone concentration. These measurements are obtained by observing backscattered and direct solar ultraviolet radiation in 12 channels of the ultraviolet spectrum. Detection and monitoring of ozone changes are essential to determine the nature of the trends and fluctuations in ozone over the globe and to investigate the relative importance of natural and man-made variations in ozone concentration. Since the stratospheric ozone layer shields the earth's surface from the full effects of the sun's ultraviolet radiation, any diminution of that protective layer may have adverse biological effects and, in addition, may impact the climate as a result of changes in the stratospheric absorption of solar energy. Information now available from the network of ozone monitoring stations, which use Dobson spectrophotometers, balloons, and rocket sondes, is not adequate in spatial and temporal coverage. On the other hand, these observations can yield more accurate measure- ments of the vertical profile of ozone than can be achieved by the SBUV. However, once SBUV is in operational use, the combination of these measurement techniques will allow for optimum monitoring of ozone. NASA will procure the initial prototype SBUV for the NOAA satellites and NOAA will procure follow-on instruments in the series. (iii) Near-Term and Future Systems Other experimental systems such as NASA's Nimbus-G, SEASAT-A, AEM-SAGE, and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), which are to be launched in 1978 and 1979, will provide input for the climate program by supplying information on the earth's radiation budget, precipitation over the oceans, a number of ocean parameters, stratospheric constitu- ents, and total solar flux. Information from LANDSAT also will be useful in monitoring the change in vegetative cover and the associated albedo variations. In addition to the Earth Radiation Budget Instrument system, a future experimental climate observing satellite system is in the planning stage by NASA. This system will measure a number of parameters (e.g. , soil moisture) not now being measured adequately or in some cases not at all. Besides filling important gaps and improving current and near-term techniques, the NASA experimental climate observing system would provide the needed continuity for a number of critical climate parameters until such time as a long-term NOAA climate monitoring system becomes operational or their measurement is incorporated into NOAA's operational environmental satellite system. New operational satellite systems will have to be developed to provide the continuous sets of data needed for climate research programs. The "NOAA/NASA — System 85 Group," which is responsible for 59 defining future satellite systems, will examine the requirements for various U.S. programs including the climate program. On the basis of their evaluations, additional climate measurements will be incorporated in the requirements for future systems. Some of the satellite systems that are expected between now and the early 1980's and the climate variables that may be measured from them are described in Table 5. One can also envision the future measurement of global wind fields by satellite-borne LIDAR systems. Ground-based and aircraft measure- ments have shown the feasibility of the method at shorter ranges. Planned extrapolation of existing technology by the Air Force points to the possibility of initial measurements from space in about five years. Successful ground-based experiments have also demonstrated the possibility of obtaining pressure-altitude, humidity, and tempera- ture profiles using laser differential-absorption techniques. b. Earth-Based Observations Several of the earth-based observations required for climate studies will be provided by the Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change program of ERL's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL). Details of this program are available in A Plan for Surface-Based Monitoring of Climatically Important Variables (1977) . The present ARL monitoring effort consists of a globally dispersed, four-station network to monitor the background levels of selected trace constituents that impact the climate because of their effect on the earth's radiation budget (e.g., CO , , f luorocarbons , and particles). The proposed plan, which consists of a Global Background Monitoring Plan and a Regional Monitoring Plan, is summarized below: (i ) Global Background Monitoring Plan The following observational activities will be initiated at the four existing NOAA global background observatories: o Carbon isotope ratios in CO measurements. o An ozonesonde observation program. o An improved aerosol monitoring program (number, size distribution, scattering, absorption, cloud condensation nuclei, ice nuclei, and elemental analysis). o LIDAR monitoring of stratospheric particles (to be added only to the Samoa and South Pole observatories). o Polarization to improve the interpretation of LIDAR and solar radiation measurements. o NO and NO monitoring. 60 Global background measurements will be initiated at new sites as follows: o Continuous atmospheric C0_ measurements will be obtained at three locations (Aleutian Islands; Christmas Island; and Palmer Station, Antarctica) and periodic air-flask samples for CO will be obtained at eight other locations. Both kinds or measurements will be representative of atmospheric conditions in ocean areas removed from major sources of CO . o Continuous atmospheric CO measurements will be obtained at four locations representative of four major biomes (Arctic taiga, temperate latitude forest, U.S. midwest agriculture, and tropical rain forest). o Measurements of dissolved CO will be obtained in the Pacific Ocean (island stations) to provide a CO budget and time rate of change for that reservoir. o Stratospheric water-vapor measurements will be initiated in a five-station, north-south network from Fairbanks, Alaska, to Panama (remaining stations are Juneau, Alaska; Boulder, Colorado; and Brownsville, Texas). o Mid-latitude LIDAR measurements of stratospheric aerosols will be obtained by a program addition at Boulder, Colorado, and Tasmania if negotiations for a joint program with Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization are successful. These program additions are summarized in Table 6 and Figure 2. (ii) Regional Monitoring Plan NOAA operates two networks to monitor air quality and precipita- tion chemistry within the contiguous United States. Both are regional portions of the two WMO global networks, the WMO total ozone network and the WMO network for chemical constituents in air and precipitation. The following changes will be made at existing stations in these two NOAA networks: o Improved collectors for precipitation chemistry will replace the present inadequate collectors at the 10 regional precipitation chemistry stations. o Vertical distribution of ozone will be determined daily by a "modified Umkehr" method at the seven existing total ozone stations (and two planned stations) . 61 TABLE 5 Space-Based Observations TYPE OF SATELLITE SENSOR PARAMETERS WHEN AVAILABLE REMARKS Polar Orbiting NOAA Series SR Sea Surface Temperature Currently available Present accuracy +1.5°C will improve to +1.0°C with TIROS-N (1985). Sea Surface Currents , Eddies Currently available over limited areas No major improve- ments expected with this type of sensor. Net Radiation Budget Currently available Several physical limitations due to orbital character- istics. Cloudiness Not available at present May become opera- tional after 1985. Surface Temp, Land/ Ice Not available at present Possible about +2°C after 1985. Surface Albedo Not available at present Possible after 1985. Snow Extent Currently available over limited areas . Global coverage pos- sible after 1978. Sea Ice Melt Limited information available now. Will improve after 1980. Polar Ice Sheet Eleva- tion change . Not available at present Possible after 1985. Tiros-N and f ollowon AVHRR Sea surface temp . 1978 Present accuracy +1.5°C. Will improve +1.0°C after 1985. Sea Surface Currents, eddies available over limited areas No major improve- ments expected with this type of sensor . Net radiation budget 1978 Several physical limitations due to orbital characteristics. Cloudiness Not avai lable at present May become opera- tional after 1982. Surface temp . , land, ice Not available at present Possible about +2°C after 1982. Surface albedo Not availab le at present Possible after 1982. Snow Extent 1978 Sea Ice melt Limited infor- mation available from 1978 Will improve with experience from 1980. Polar ice sheet eleva- tion changes Not planned at present Possible after 1985. Sounder Water vapor profile Temperature profile Ozone distribution 1978. 1978 1978. Total 0^ only (5 - 20% accuracy) Needs development for better accuracy by 1985 and later. 1982 - profiles available - 5% accuracy. Data collection System Oceanographic and cryo- spheric parameters 1980 Needs development work. ERBIS Net radiation budget solar UV flux. 1982 Development work needed for satellite and ground systems. 62 TABLE S (Continued) Experimental SEASAT-A Scatter Infrared Radlomete MU. Radlo- (SMMR) PARAMETERS Wind stress/sea state Sea Surface Temperature Wave Height Sea level (topo- graphy). Topo- graphy of Glacier Ocean Currents. Precipitation ove oceans. Polar lc sheet boundary ch Will N AVAILABLE 1978. Needs developro 1978 for IB. Feasibility studies by 1980 for MU 1978. Needs develop- ment for future oper- ational satellites 1978. Needs develop- ment for future oper- ational satellites if the data from these sensors prove to be useful then they may be In- corporated on board operational satel- lites by 1985. Multichannel Mlcrovave Radiometer (SMMO Limb Infrared Monitor of th Stratosphere (LIHS) Stratospheric Water Vapor Polar ice sh deformation Polar Ice sheet boundary change 1978. Needs develop- ment . 1978. Needs develop- ment uork for future op-satellltes 1978. Needs develop- ment uork. Possible in 1978. Possible limited capability by 1978 If these sensors provide useful Information then they will be oper tlonal atellltes by 1985. Solar Back Scattered UV/Total 0o Mapper (SbUV/TOMS) . RR Coastal Zone Color Scanner Stratospheric Aerosol Proposed for ope tlonal satellite for 1980's. Proposed for oper tlonal satellites for 1980's. Coastal Sea Surf. Currents t. Eddies Stratospheric Aerosols 1978. Development uork needed for usln it on operational satellites. 1978. Development uork needed for usin Stratospheric Aerosols 4 Ga Total Solar flu Net Radiation Budget Surface Temp. Ove Land. Ice Surface Albedo i I., Me ilable at available Currently avail- able Incomplete global coverage. Considerable amoun of research and development work required before these quantitative data are avallahle May become opera- tional by 1982. c i. Space Shuttle Radio- Total Solar Flux (Inly limited amoun of data may he available for cal- ibration and evaluation. 63 z o t z o D o a < CO I < DO o _J o < z o Q Q < Q UJ W o a, O a. a) 2 • 03 55 5 ■■'/ o o X X X X X cc id h- X X X X X X XXX X X X X X X ID o> '5 c .a to +■> =" I C ' — '■p .* 3 (A (0 oj CD O w CO C •— n /f o) » S .t o > O a °£ ID — C o * .71 t> s o 0) ■a 3 O OQ CD CO jc (0 05 £ X) M (J) 3 I- Z sai -0 UJ a. a to O a. o ec Q LU CO O o 64 o Improved quality sun-photometers will replace present photometers at the 10 turbidity monitoring stations. In addition, measurements will be extended to other locations in the contiguous United States as follows: o Total ozone measurements will be added at the University of California's White Mountain Research Station and at Pendelton, Oregon. o Ozonesonde measurements will be added at three stations to provide routine, directly measured, vertical distribution of ozone. Possible locations are the east coast, the west coast, and Boulder, Colorado. o Turbidity and precipitation chemistry measurements will be added at 15 locations as indicated in Figure 3 and Table 7. These measurements will be carried out with the same improved instrumentation as will be installed at the present 10 regional turbidity and precipitation chemistry stations. (iii) Plans for Other Measurements Intensive, short-term sampling of atmospheric constituents is needed to aid interpretation of long-term monitored data. The planned short-term monitoring to meet this need includes: o Periodic measurements of the vertical distribution of particles and their optical properties at the global-background observatories and in the Global Atmospheric Aerosol and Radiation Experiment currently being proposed by the U.S.S.R. o Measurements of the vertical distribution of CO in regional areas where the vertical flux of CO is important. (iv) Plans for Laboratory Support Laboratory support for the above field measurements should be established in Boulder, Colorado. The greatest and most immediate need is for the development of CO -in-air reference gas standards. c. Ocean-Based Observations although it is commonly agreed that the ocean is perhaps the greatest single factor influencing climate, our empirical knowledge of 65 i£rr J? r~° z UJ UJ EC a. a UJ V) o ,,, o cc a. (3 Z a. O H z o < z o UJ DC < Z o Q Q < Q 11! w Q a. O a: a c E 09 k. 3 (0 4) I — J= ® 0) J) ° 3 X X xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx _® to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx LLi JZ (0 CO - o I i > O w Q. D UJ a LL o (0 2 2 (0 O 6 c o o ■D c 0) ,)■, a a O CO TO in c 03 o £ 3 .2 J3 £ o CD O (0 O (0 .E 4) c (0 X 4) a CD U 00 >- a> C o CD en ® 66 the mean structure and variability of the ocean is simply not adequate. We are seriously deficient when it comes to the systematic observation of the ocean's temperature regime and transients in its major current systems. With the exception of some coastal and island tide stations, cooperative "ships-of-opportunity," and prototype deep-ocean moored buoys, ocean-based observing platforms capable of providing long-term data series are almost nonexistent. Thus, the main priority is to begin with the long-term monitoring of a relatively few regions, chosen on the basis of their dynamical importance and using available monitoring techniques. Areas of particular importance include the equatorial region, the mid-gyre region, and the subpolar region. A second priority initiative deals with the problem of developing and implementing, on a gradual, time-phased basis, a comprehensive global ocean monitoring system. Such a system should be designed to: o Expand the spatial and temporal coverage of monitoring activities in accordance with climate research and service requirements. o Improve the quality of observations and obtain certain measurements not now available by utilizing new and improved observational techniques. o Minimize the burden of establishing and sustaining these monitoring activities by organizing them on an international cooperative basis. Observations for climate purposes can be made from deep-ocean moored buoys and bottom-mounted sensing devices, drifting buoys, offshore platforms, island stations, surface ships, and remote sensing shore-based systems. State-of-the-art sensing, data processing, and communications technology applicable to these systems indicate that operational systems could be established in the near term depending on the scope of the effort and the resources available. Table 8 indicates those variables that can be measured from the different types of ocean-based stations. The present capabilities of each of these stations and their role within this climate program are described in the following sections. (i) Shipboard Observations Systems The Shipboard Environmental Data Acquisition System (SEAS) is presently being planned for phasing into the National Weather Service's Cooperative Ship Program. The NWS approach is to use three models, each with different levels of automation yet capable of communicating observations automatically via the Geostationary Operational Environ- mental Satellite Data Collection System (GOES DCS). Engineering model b7 i -o oo l | a. 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TABLE 9 Shipboard Environmental Data Acquisition System (SEAS) Measurement Capability Variable Range Accuracy Basic Wind Speed to 65 m/s 1.5 m/s or 10% Wind Direction to 360 deg 20 deg Sea Level Atmosphere Pressure 900 to 1060 mb 1 mb Air Temperature -20 to +50°C 0.5°C Optional Surface Water Temperature -5 to +50°C 0.5°C 0.5 C Subsurface Temperature -5 to +40°C (to 500-m depth) Dew Point Temperature -20 to +40°C 1.0°C Salinity to 500-m depth 0.1 ppt Further into the future, it may be possible to measure subsurface current and temperature profiles while underway using Doppler acoustic and laser technology. Indeed, ocean temperature profiles to a depth of 30 meters in the open ocean have been obtained from a ship using a laser. (ii) Deep-Ocean Moored Buovs The 10-meter diameter Deep Ocean Moored Buoys (DOMB) can be moored in the deep ocean, can remain unattended for periods up to one year, and will be used to provide long-term series measurements of the parameters shown in Table 10. The near-term milestone, beginning in FY 1979, is to use the existing North Pacific Ocean network of six buoys to provide marine weather over the marine leg of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System. Present plans call for 26 DOMB's to be included in the NWS network by the end of FY 1982. Two of these buoys will be specifically prepared for FY 1 980 deployment in areas determined to be critical to the understanding of the ocean's contribution to climate fluctuation. By FY 1 9 80 , a comprehensive ocean climate monitoring plan will be complete, and decisions can be made concerning the extent and location of an expanded buoy network. 69 TABLE 10 Deep-Ocean Moored Buoy Measurement Capability Variable Range Accuracy Sea Level Atmosphere Pressure 900 to 1050 mb 0.5 mb Wind Speed to 65 m/s 0.4 m/s Wind Direction to 360 deg 7.5 deg Air Temperature -15 to +40°C 0.2°C Significant Wave Height 0.5 to 30 m 0.5 m Average Wave Period 3 to 25 s 1.5 s Surface Water Temperature (2m) -5 to +35°C 0.1°C Subsurface Temperature -5 to +35°C 0.2°C (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 m) Wave Spectra Available (.05 Hz to .33 Hz) Normal Reporting: 3 Hrs. Synoptic (Hourly if Requested) In the future, moored buoys could be used as "mother" stations to collect subsurface current and temperature profile data from subsurface moored stations as well as ocean tide data from ocean floor-implanted sensors. This multi-sensor information could be transmitted to the mother buoy via underwater acoustic link for eventual transmission to shore via satellite or HF communication links. Another promising concept involves measuring the transit time of reciprocal acoustic transmissions between stations moored hundreds of kilometers apart in the deep ocean to determine the component of current (and to infer the average temperature) along the acoustic ray path. Subsequent processing of data from a multiplicity of such stations could be used to derive the current field and thermohaline structure for relatively large volumes of the ocean. (iii) Drifting Buovs Experiments using drifting buoys with the Nimbus G meteorolog- ical satellite system have proven conclusively that drifting buoys can produce both in situ measurements of atmospheric and oceanic variables and Lagrangian measurements of currents in the surface and the mixed layer of the ocean. The buoys can be deployed from research ships and ships of opportunity in remote parts of the ocean. After Nimbus G, the TIROS-N meteorological satellite series will carry on the 70 functions of locating buoys and collecting data. The near-term milestone will be to assemble five units for testing in FY 1980. (iv) Ocean Surveillance Radar By 1983, a radar system will be available that can measure surface currents and wave height and directional spectra. The system (described in NOAA Technical Report ERL-373-WPL-47) was conceived by the ERL Wave Propagation Laboratory for use in environmental impact studies. The radar transmits an HF 930 MHz ground wave signal from shore over an area approximately 70 km x 30 km and measures the Doppler shift due to wave motion. These data, together with the intrinsic physical properties of ocean waves and currents, can be used to derive circulation and sea-state information integrated over large areas of the ocean surface. Although the technique has been proven experimentally, consider- able development is needed in hardware and software to bring it to the point where it can be used reliably at low cost. The near-term milestone for the climate program is to locate five systems at strategic points along the east coast by 1983 to monitor the condition of the Gulf Stream. The current -mapping mode is scheduled for completion in 1980 and the wave system by 1982. An application study prior to the 1983 deployment and for a brief period thereafter will determine the extent to which these systems will serve the climate program. A longer range version of this principle utilizes an over-the- horizon radar, which is capable of covering ocean areas orders of magnitude larger than the ground wave system decribed above. This system, still in its initial stages of development, is not ready to be programmed into the climate program for operational data collection, although it does have potential for becoming a major source of ocean wave and current information. (v) Offshore Platforms and Island Stations There are literally thousands of offshore structures in the coastal waters of the U.S. alone that can be used as observation platforms. The National Weather Service has already begun cooperative projects with major oil and gas companies to place Remote Automatic Meteorological Observations Stations systems on their platforms. A major milestone for 1984 will be to instrument 10 of these platforms with a variation of the SEAS, one of which will also be capable of measuring dissolved carbon dioxide. Tide-gage records and records of sea level fluctuations from coastal and island stations represent some of the longest data series available, and information derived from these can be used as important indices of climate variation. A study will be conducted in FY 1979 by 71 the National Ocean Survey to determine the extent to which tidal observations can be applied to the climate program. Based on the results of such a study, selected offshore platforms and island stations could be equipped with automatic sea level gages and weather stations with satellite readout. 72 E. DATA MANAGEMENT 1. Objectives The U. S. Climate Program Plan identifies NOAA as responsible "for developing and implementing a comprehensive program of climate data management" and also calls upon NOAA to "support the efforts of other agencies by providing weather and climate data, predictions, and statistical analyses of pertinent parameters." Therefore, in addition to addressing the specific NOAA data requirements, as stated in the preceding elements of this document, this element will address the broader task of data management and coordination for the U. S. Climate Program. As stated in the U. S. Climate Plan, "The basic purpose of the data management element of a U. S. Climate Program must be to ensure that required data, data products, and specialized data sets and bases are available to the users in a timely and economical fashion." To accomplish this purpose, two broad interrelated objectives have been identified: o Implement the data management structure and actions necessary to ensure that the data requirements of the NOAA and U. S. Climate Programs will be met. (Objective 1) o Develop the core data sets according to the requirements stated in the NOAA and other agency climate plans as part of the U. S. Climate Program. (Objective 2) Under objective 1, the basic management structure will be spelled out and major data and related problems identified relative to the development of the core data sets to be developed under objective 2. 2. Current Activities The National Climatic Center at Asheville, North Carolina, receives and processes over 30 million meteorological observations annually and provides data and summaries, including satellite data and related products, to a large and diverse user community. Data are gathered from the National Weather Service, the National Environmental Satellite Service, military services, and international sources to provide a National Climatic Data Base (both digital and analog) for multiple uses. Over 80,000 subscribers regularly receive published data; over 57,000 user requests were answered in 1976. The data and publi- cations are used by planners, designers, engineers, lawyers, academic groups, government agencies, and the public. The Climatic Atlas of the United States presents widely used climatic data in graphic forms and tabulations. A Climatological Data National Summary issued monthly lists pressure, temperature, and wind data for a large sampling of selected stations. Local Climatological Data publications 73 are issued monthly for about 300 cities; these contain daily and monthly data on temperature, heating and cooling degree days, dew point, precipitation, wind, sunshine, and clouds. Other publications designed to meet specific needs of large user groups include studies of: o The state of the atmosphere using earth- and ocean-based observa- tions. o The interrelationship between space-based weather observations and surface observations as sources of integrated data products. o The statistical nature of climatic change, including the inter- relationships among various climatic elements over land and water, evaluation of climatic changes integrated over large geographic areas, and human activities as a cause of inadver- tent climatic change. o The use of large climatic data collections in efforts to improve management of food production systems and health and to optimize environmental quality. o The use of data analyses in decisions concerning trade-offs be- tween environmental considerations and the economics of con- struction, power production, location of offshore ports, and continental shelf and deepwater mineral recovery. Other recent NCC climate data activities include developing a 100- year historical sea-surface temperature set under WMO sponsorship, developing a U. S. solar radiation data base for energy studies in connection with the Department of Energy, collecting and publishing global CO , turbidity, and precipitation chemistry data for WMO, archiving the GMCC data, and preparing indexes to climate data and information. The NCC also serves as a focal point for data and advisory assistance to developing state climatologist programs. The EDS Center for Experiment Design and Data Analysis has devel- oped advanced methods of processing, editing, displaying, compacting, and formatting data sets for research and applications. CEDDA has recently completed the international merging and validation of surface, upper air, and radar data collected in the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). These data sets and the associated documentation have been deposited in the World Data Centers in Asheville and Moscow. Until CCAP becomes operational, CEDDA is supporting CCEA in developing software for acquiring, formatting, displaying, editing, and objectively analyzing global temperature and precipitation data in near realtime for crop assessment applications. Other EDS data centers archive and service important files of data for climate research. The National Oceanographic Data Center is aug- n meriting its extensive files of global oceanographic data through cooperation with other U. S. and international organizations. The National Geophysical and Solar-Terrestrial Data Center (NGSDC) has extensive files of solar, geological, and marine data, which will be required for climate research, and is the archive for basic data from the Climate/Long Range Investigation Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) program. Data indexing and bibliographic services available through the EDS Environmental Data Index (ENDEX) and Oceanic and Atmospheric Scientific Information System (OASIS) activities are providing information services to climate research and planning activities. EDS is also cooperating with the WMO and NCAR in the development of special catalogs of information on data for climate studies. World Data Centers (WDC-A) for Meteorology (NCC), Oceanography (NODC), Solar-Terrestrial and Solid-Earth Physics (NGSDC), and Glaciology (NGSDC) are collocated with the corresponding EDS data centers and constitute an important link for the international exchange of climate data. Under the direction of the EDS Special Projects Staff, studies on C0_, weather variability, sunspots, drought chronology, paleoclimate, earth orbital changes, and associated analysis techniques are seeking more effective ways to utilize available and future data in assessing the impact of climate change. EDS is also cooperating with NSF in the development of data and archiving facilities in paleoclimatology and with NWS in the management and operation of the Reference Climato- logical Stations Network. A continuing series of EDS-sponsored climate data users workshops are providing valuable guidance in the development of climate data sets and products. 3. Problems The climate data user is confronted with severe problems at three stages. First, he has difficulty determining which data exist and where they are located. Then, in most cases, he will have further problems obtaining the data in a usable format. Finally, if he succeeds in obtaining the data, he will most likely find that they are incomplete, over voluminous, or marred by errors. Agencies that collect and process climatic data face similar prob- lems. They have no authoritative source of information on anticipated requirements and priorities for climatic data and little or no guidance as to which data should be retained; which must be compacted or may be discarded; and what formats, media, and file structures will be most convenient for the expected modes of retrieval and use. Hence, they do not have an adequate basis for planning and allocating resources for processing, validating, and formatting climate data for archiving. lb A particularly serious and rapidly growing problem is, in a sense, an embarassment of riches. As has been made clear in earlier sections of this document, the expected operational, diagnostic, and research activi- ties related to climatic variations will require greatly increased data coverage of the globe, continuing over long periods of time and repre- senting many variables that have not been routinely measured in the past. Fortunately, the space-based sensor systems will fill many of these needs and will, in fact, be capable of providing even more spatial and temporal sampling density than will probably be needed. The problem becomes one of digesting and managing this flood of data so that the necessary information is retained while the resources expended on processing and storage are kept within reasonable bounds. Table 11 lists some typical daily data volumes of conventional and satellite systems to illustrate the increase associated with the new satellite systems. The volume of data flowing from four geostationary satellites is several thousand times that of all the conventional meteorological observing systems combined. Table 1 1 Typical Daily Data Volumes (1974) and Satellite Data Volumes Bits/day Global Length (4-bit TvDe obs/dav Each Char) Bits/vear Rawinsonde 1,570 500 char 3.14x10 o 11.50x10 Winds aloft 1,300 200 1.04xl0 6 3.79x10 Aircraft 1,600 50 0.32xl0 6 1.17xl0 8 Satellite VTPR 1,000 300 1.20xl0 6 4.38xl0 8 Ship synoptic 2,700 70 0.76xl0 6 2.77xl0 8 Land synoptic 50,000 70 I4.0xl0 6 51.13xl0 8 Airways reports 30,000 80 9.6x10 35.06xl0 8 2 polar satellit es 3 ,959. xlO 6 14, 400. xlO 8 4 geostationary satellites 96 ,800. xlO 8 353, 000. xlO Some key factors requiring consideration in the management of specific data types will now be reviewed. The following discussion will not include the management of special data acquired over a limited period of time as part of a special program or process study 76 (e.g., FGGE, EPOCS). Individual data management interfaces will be coordinated for each special program to assure that the required data are properly integrated into the total climate data base. a. Earth- and Ocean-Based Data (i) Operational Collections and Products Assessment, prediction, and some diagnostic activities require knowledge of the elements of the climate system to with- in a few days to a week or two of the present time. These requirements can only be met by a rapid processing and transmission of the basic observational material. These programs will rely primarily on the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) for data exchange and the centralized operations at the National Meteorological Center, together with links with the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) and the Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) , for the extraction and assembly of the basic material and a number of operational weather analysis products. Surface, upper air, and aircraft meteorological data and some oceanographic data will be collected in this way. The various climate program activities will produce a number of additional products. The data and derived products will serve as important elements of the climate data base. In some cases, they may represent the primary source of data. To assure availability of the necessary analyses, we must define the requirements of the U. S. Climate Program for acquisition, communications, resolution, accuracy, calibration, and documentation and make them known to those reponsible for operational acquisition of the data. After their realtime purpose has been served, the operational data continue to find use in diagnostics and research. They will generally be subjected to quality checks, and complete validated data sets will be available from the appropriate archival center after some months. (ii) Nontelecommunications Data For many purposes of climatic diagnostics and research, the operational observations, as well as many additional types of surface-based observations, will be acquired directly from the source or from a secondary source such as a national archive after formal quality control. These data sets will generally be more complete and of higher quality. They may, as in the case of standard meteorological data, largely duplicate the operational collections, and the degree of improvement is to a great extent determined by the effectiveness of the WMO operational system of data collection and transmission. Data acquired in the delayed mode will include basic surface and upper air meteorological observations and gridded data based on analysis of four-dimensional data fields. Data on aerosols and trace gases such as CO , , NO, and CH will also be acquired in this way. 77 In addition to the satellite-sensed and operationally reported seasurface temperatures and marine meteorological observations, information on ocean-atmosphere interface conditions extracted from ships' logs after the completion of cruises will continue to be critically important in attempting to fill out the coverage of the oceans. Subsurface oceanographic data on temperature, salinity, currents, dissolved oxygen, and other trace substances, which can be used in diagnostic studies of ocean circulation, in testing circulation models, and in assessing biological and economic impacts of climatic anomalies, will be acquired primarily in the delayed mode at the completion of cruises, generally after format and quality checking by national oceanographic data centers. Acquisition of data on precipita- tion, radiation balance, sensible and latent heat exchange, and surface stress over the oceans will depend on the outcome of research and development programs. For research and modeling activities concerned with climate variability and trends over time periods longer than those covered by existing or future instrumental data, historical and paleoclimatic data from many proxy sources will be required. Existing and devel- oping collections and archives of paleoclimatic data tend to be organized according to proxy source. This situation presents problems of time and space resolution to other users who require mixed data sets to assemble long time series and adequate spatial coverage. Basic problems in data location, definition, indexing, archiving, and assessment of usability remain to be adequately addressed. b. Space-Based Data Existing holdings of satellite digital data and images useful for climate studies include those of: o The Satellite Data Service Branch (SDSB) of NOAA's National Climatic Center, covering data acquired from the ESSA, NOAA, ITOS, and SMS/GOES operational meteorological satellite series since January 1967. o NASA's National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) covering not only data from research satellites such as the NIMBUS series but also TIROS meteorological tapes. o Other research centers such as the University of Wisconsin and Colorado State University, which have extensive and unique satellite data archives. Many types of data useful in climate research are contained in these U. S. and other foreign archives, but generally they are not in a con- venient form. Much effort is required to extract the appropriate Level or I data from these tapes, edit them, develop and apply appropriate transfer functions to convert them to homogeneous sets of climate para- meters, and format them for archiving. (See Table 14 for definitions of data levels. ) 78 Preparation for acquiring and processing data on climate para- meters from future satellite systems is even more urgent. Opportunities must be seized to develop and implement procedures for assuring a greater degree of stability, homogeneity, and compatibility among data from different sensor systems than can be attained by reprocessing past data and to acquire and retain essential calibration data to permit re-analysis, should this be necessary in the future. Volumes of data to be archived must be assessed carefully, and preparations must be made for their efficient storage and retrieval. The required data may come from NOAA operational satellites, NASA research satellites, U. S. military satellites, or foreign satellites. Figure 4 shows the basic satellite data flow within the United States that impacts the U. S. Climate Program. NOAA will: o Hold the complete archive of data generated from NOAA operational systems. o Hold selected data from non-NOAA systems. o Provide one-stop service to users through data exchange and referral agreements with other satellite data centers. Since not all Level I, II, and III satellite data will be archived by NOAA, the data management system must provide for effective interfaces between the various national and international data centers. Early agreement on standards, commonality of mass storage systems, and methods of timely exchange is required. As a general rule, Level II and III data should be prepared at the "source" by those who know most about the data system. However, past experience points up the wisdom of also archiving the information necessary for retrospective recalibration of the Level II data. The overall requirements of the storage and retrieval system are determined by user needs. These include: o Spatial coverage. o Spatial and temporal resolution. o Format and medium (digital and image). o Derived and summary data products. To set priorities for the storage of Level I and II data, we need an estimate of the data volume from the major operational and experimental satellite data systems likely to be in operation during the post-FGGE period. Table 12 lists the proposed U. S. civilian operational and experimental systems for this period. 79 c O) 0) 0) o a) (0 u. 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CD t-< a> t. tc a hi i " ■1> i - i <> ' 1 '/I to a , r , ■M to c to m J^ >. o >, 4-> CO c/) 10 c/) rt c crt o H C -H c '■ ' 1 > id ".i cO c JlJ n ■ii JZ ii > .j-j [Q ■< K T) .. ■c c c US 1 c/( ■r c/) t. •i ^3 > o .c \ .c \ C 3 C :>> o o o co a x: s t* o u o o -;> O O E in R O iTi ^ * -j i >> a in •*-- >> o I0HO '-.J >» x: <"-• >, .c in •-i ffl -> ■> T3 c "O C CO >. o >. co td m in a .-H r-H » O 73 -•-) CD ■; o -h s to c (0 .. ■a 4-) -o <•-• M co o &C n) o 4_> L i : Q] m ffl t 1. C ni a) L. ■:;.' L, CI) i ■ -j > (f, "1 1 i ■H ■*J 01 CD a V) t- <5 h if 1 0) 1 , 1 o 0) a* f ..> CO CD H CO CD *-' :• Q. CO Q. CD CO -H CD X C/) CD O -~- L. -H 3 Q CD CO O CO C fO CD O t, Q. S-, 3 CO C/] O 1 t- O O CO B -a xi -ij 4-> CD c H< co «< s: > t, t- IO.CL 89 Space observation is the most direct and most accurate means of measuring many essential climatic parameters (e.g. , planetary radiation budget). Large portions of the future data base will therefore consist of or be derived from Level II and III satellite data. The design of the overall climate data base of the 1980' s and its individual elements constitutes an early priority task involving: o Space/time resolution. o Basic and derived parameters and data products. o Operational and nonoperational data products. o Construction of data fields using observations from different systems. The homogeneity of data sets for climate research is of particular importance. Changes in instrumentation and/or processing procedures may seriously distort a supposedly homogenous data set. It is, of course, preferable that inhomogeneities be removed wherever possible by the originating agencies at the source. In the preparation of climate data sets, the evidence bearing on serial consistency will be critically studied and, where Level I and calibration data have been preserved with adequate documentation, these will be used to achieve maximum homogeneity. 90 CHAPTER III Program Management and Coordination NOAA will have important management and coordination responsi- bilities at the agency, national, and international levels. To focus these responsibilities, a U. S. Climate Program Office will be established by NOAA within the Office of the Assistant Administrator for Research and Development. It is anticipated that the Director of the U. S. Climate Program Office will be assigned responsibility for developing and coordinating, with the participation of all interested U. S. agencies, a National Climate Program that achieves the goals set out in A United States Climate Program Plan. While many important goals can be attained through national efforts, some of the most important will require significant international collaboration. The U. S. Climate Program Office also will serve as the principal focus for coordinating U. S. participation in the World Climate Program, which is simultaneously under development internation- ally. The U. S. Climate Program Office would build upon the National Climate Program Coordinating Office already established by NOAA in response to a recommendation of A United States Climate Program Plan . The national and international functions described here are generally consistent with those included in proposed legislation now pending before the Congress. Within NOAA, the day-to-day management of the various components described in this NOAA Plan will be accomplished mainly by appropriate managers in the line organizations who already are responsible for the required functions and facilities in support of other NOAA missions. In a few cases, for example the Center for Climatic Analysis and Projection, a new organizational element will be created. The U. S. Climate Program Office will be responsible for analyzing and evaluating all existing and proposed components of the NOAA Climate Program and for recommending priorities to top NOAA management. The Office will exercise budget control over those program components that are estab- lished primarily as elements of the NOAA Climate Program. However, tasks will be assigned to existing competent NOAA organizations whenever this is practical. The Office also will identify NOAA program activities serving other missions that are essential for the NOAA Climate Program, ensure that the appropriate managers are informed of the Climate Program requirements, and arrange for supple- mentary funding if necessary to accomplish high priority unique tasks. The U. S. Climate Program Office also will be responsible for analyzing and evaluating the essential components of the U. S. Climate Program that are undertaken by other agencies. It is anticipated 91 that the principal participating agencies will assign personnel to join in this effort on a full-time or part-time basis. The Office will take responsibility for compiling an annual report and an updated plan for the U. S. Climate Program. The Office also will compile coordinated and consolidated program and budget analyses and recommendations for climate research and services as required by Executive or Legislative direction. Each participating agency will submit, justify, and manage separately its part of the consolidated program and budget. It is anticipated that NOAA, through the U. S. Climate Program Office, will request and administer funds to support any U. S. agency to conduct work that is essential to the National Climate Program but not justifiable in the regular budget of another mission agency. The U. S Climate Program Office will ensure that the U. S. Climate Program and the nascent international World Climate Program are developed in a complementary and mutually reinforcing manner. The World Climate Program was initiated recently by the World Meteoro- logical Organization with the concurrence and participation of several international organizations, including the International Council of Scientific Unions, UNESCO (particularly the Intergovern- mental Oceanographic Commission), the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the United Nations Environment Program. Coordination will be accomplished through the Permanent Representative of the United States to WHO and the various relevant international Committees and Commissions. The U. S. Climate Program Office, while administratively within NOAA, will receive guidance on program policy from a high-level interagency body established for that purpose. 92 LIST OF ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AFGWC Air Force Global Weather Central ARL Air Resources Laboratory CCAP Center for Climatic Analysis and Projection CCEA Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment CEDDA Center for Experiment Design and Data Analysis CLIMAP Climate/Long Range Investigation Mapping and Predictions COHMAP Climate of the Holocene: Mapping Based on Pollen Data DCS Data Collection System DOMB Deep-Ocean Moored Buoys DOD Department of Defense EDS Environmental Data Service ENDEX Environmental Data Index EPOCS Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Study ERB Earth Radiation Budget ERBI Earth Radiation Budget Instrument ERL Environmental Research Laboratories ESSA Environmental Survey Satellite FGGE First GARP Global Experiment FNWC Fleet Numerical Weather Central GARP Global Atmospheric Research Project GATE GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment GCM General Circulation Model GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GMCC Geophysical Monitoring for Climate Change GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GTS Global Telecommunications System ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions INDEX Indian Ocean Experiment ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone ITOS Improved TIROS Operational Satellite LACIE Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment LANDSAT Land Satellite LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LRPG Long Range Prediction Group NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCC National Climatic Center NESS National Environmental Satellite Service NGSDC National Geophysical and Solar Terrestrial Data Center NMC National Meteorological Center NMFS National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NODC National Oceanographic Data Center NORPAX North Pacific Experiment NOS National Ocean Survey NSF National Science Foundation NSSDC National Space Science Data Center 93 NWS National Weather Service OASIS Oceanic and Atmospheric Scientific Information System SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SASS SEASAT "A" Scatterometer System SBUV Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer SDSB Satellite Data Services Branch SEAS Shipboard Environmental Data Acquisition System SEASAT Sea Satellite SMM Solar Maximum Mission SMMR Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer SMS Synchronous Meteorological Satellite SST Sea-Surface Temperature STREX Storm Transfer and Response Experiment TOMS Total Ozone Measurement System TOVS TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder TRL Tree-Ring Laboratory (Univerisity of Arizona) USAFETAC U. S. Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center USDA U. S. Department of Agriculture VIRM Visible and Infrared Radiometer Mapper VISSR Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer WMO World Meteorological Organization i, U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1978--261-238/434 94 ]pi»r