rA ; ^ a supplement to International Commerce ISB PENNSYLVANIA STATB \ UNIVERSITY LIBRARY DOCDJUENTS SECTION US. SHARE OF WORLD MARKETS FOR MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS 1961 1954-56 I ■ D ■ U.S. EXPORTS EXPORTS FROM PRINCIPAL COMPETITORS Analysis of changes from 1954 through 1961 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/ Bureau of International Commerce A SUPPLEMENT TO International Commerce ... the weekly news magazine for world traders published by the Bureau of International Commerce and sold by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washing- ton, D.C. 20402, and by Department of Commerce Field Offices for $16 a year. A U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PUBLICATION U. S. SHARE OF WORLD MARKETS FOR MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS Analysis of changes from 1954 through 1961 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Luther H. Hodges Secretary Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jr. Under Secretary Jack N. Behrman Assistant Secretary for Domestic and International Business Thomas G. Wyman Deputy Assistant Secretary for Domestic and International Business Eugene M. Braderman Director, Bureau of International Commerce For sale by the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C.. 20402 - Price 25 cents BY Harry Bodansky AND Frances L. Hall BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE 11 Foreword This study analyzes changes since 1954-56 in U.S. shares of markets abroad for manufactured goods. Analysis of developments by regional market and by com- modity reveals both the geographical and product areas in which the United States is strongest and those in which it has lost most ground. This report was prepared to pro- vide a factual basis for study of the U.S. competitive position in world markets, in the expectation that such study could help improve U.S. export performance. Since the mid-fifties, the growth in world trade has been concentrated in manu- factured products. Exports of manufactures from the world's principal suppliers rose by 62 percent between 1954-56 and 1961, and by an estimated additional 9 or 10 percent in 1962. Although U.S. exports of manufactures also have risen substantially, they have not kept pace with this dramatic growth. Their expansion between 1954-56 and 1961 was only half as fast as that from all principal suppliers. While the downward trend was checked in 1962, preliminary and incomplete data for 1963 indicate there may have been a further loss in U.S. share. The expansion of U.S. exports is a major objective of the U.S. Department of Commerce and of the U.S. Government. The Nation needs to export more to help improve its balance of international payments, to create new jobs at home, and to stimulate economic growth and higher living standards both in the United States and throughout the free world. The continued expansion of world demand for manufac- tured products provides new opportunities for American business to increase its exports. March 1964 EUGENE M. BRADERMAN, Director, Bureau of International Commerce in Credits All of the voluminous statistical compilations and calculations on which this analysis was based were prepared under the direction of Miss Vera L. Hartman by the staff members of the Foreign Trade Section of the International Trade Analysis Division, U.S. Department of Commerce. The authors wish to acknowledge this con- tribution with deep appreciation. IV Contents Page Introductory Note 1 Part I. Summary Conclusions 2 Part II. Details of Analysis 6 A. Growth in Demand for Foreign Manu- factures 6 Buoyancy of World Exports of Man- ufactures 6 U.S. Exports Less Expansive 6 B. Share Changes Reviewed by Region 7 Canada 8 Latin America 9 Western Europe 9 Japan 10 Other Far East 10 Oceania 11 Africa 12 Near East 12 C. Share Changes Reviewed by Product.- 13 Road Motor Vehicles 13 Industrial Machinery 14 Aircraft 14 Other Machinery and Transport Equipment 14 Iron and Steel 15 Copper and Other Nonferrous Me- tals 15 Textiles 15 Chemicals 18 Other Products 18 Notes on Methodology 24 Description of Statistics 24 Limitations of Data 24 Indexes of Shares 25 Dollar Value Equivalents 25 Comparison of Indexes Computed from Weighted and Unweighted Data 25 TABLES Page 1. Array of Commodity Groups 2 2. Summary of Exports of Manufactures by Broad Commodity Category 7 3. Summary of Exports of Manufactures by Region 8 4. Indexes of U.S. Percentage Shares of Exports of Manufactures 19 5. Value Equivalents of Changes in U.S. Percentage Shares of Exports of Manu- factures 21 CHARTS A. Net Dollar Equivalents of Share Changes 4 B. U.S. and Foreign Export Growth 6 C. Size of Markets for Manufactures 7 D. Canada 9 E. Latin American Republics 9 F. Western Europe 10 G. Japan 10 H. Far East 11 I. Oceania 11 J. Africa .... 12 K. Near East 12 L. Growth in Value of Exports of Manu- factures 16 M. Comparative Growth in Exports of Man- ufactures 17 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://archive.org/details/usshareofworldmaOOunit Introductory Note This analysis of changes in U.S. shares of export markets for manufactures from 1954-56 to 1961 con- tinues a similar study prepared in 1959 covering data for the years 1954-58. The current analysis relates to 44 principal groups of manufactured goods, the same coverage as in the earlier study, with one exception. 1 A number of the small-value groups have again been consolidated so that only 27 groups or combinations of groups are separately distinguished in the various tabulations. Because of the introduction of a revised international trade classification in 1961, data for some products in that year are not entirely comparable with those for earlier periods. In the following analysis, attention is focused on the commodity groups where the authors felt reasonably sure that comparability with earlier years was maintained. Fortunately, many of the most important groups of commodities exported from the United States were little affected by the classification revisions. The regional markets considered as destinations have been expanded from the original six to eight by adding Oceania and Japan, so that an even higher proportion of U.S. exports is covered here than in the previous report. Exports to these 8 markets in the 44 groups in 1961 accounted for 80 percent of total exports of manufactures from all supplier countries used in the study and 87 percent of U.S. exports of manufactures. The major industrial suppliers whose exports of manufactures form the total trade universe in the re- port are the United States, continental European coun- tries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) except Switz- erland and Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan. This study was prepared in a continuing effort to provide an objective measure of the degree to which our international trading position has changed relative to that of our major competitors, based on an exami- nation of comprehensive data for major types of manu- factured goods. There is no reason to consider as "typical" or espe- cially "desirable" the share taken by the United States in 1954-56, 1958, or 1961 in a particular regional mar- ket for a particular commodity group. Nor is there any reason to expect the U.S. share to remain constant over the years. International trade is never static, and shifts in markets and in commodities exchanged take place continuously. It is useful, however, to review such changes over time to see how this country is faring relative to other countries, especially since U.S. earnings from exports have assumed such importance in the drive to eliminate the deficit in the U.S. balance of payments. 1 Tractors (#713) and agricultural machinery (#712) have been combined following a like change in the revised (1960) Standard International Trade Classification. Copies of "Comparative Statistics on Ex- ports of Manufactures From the United States, Western Europe, and Japan," a com- pilation of the detailed data on which this analysis is based, can be obtained without cost by writing to the International Trade Analysis Division, Bureau of International Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 20230. PART I Summary Conclusions U.S. Share Reduced by One-Tenth The U.S. share of exports of principal manufactured goods from major industrial supplier nations declined 10 percent between 1954-56 and 1961. 1 Through 1958, the U.S. share declined by 6 percent from the average annual share in 1954-56. Between 1958 and 1961, the U.S. share dropped an additional 4 percentage points. The net value equivalent of the 10-percent average share loss would be $1.2 billion. If the U.S. share of 1 This decline was determined as the weighted average of changes for 352 separate commodity-by*region markets (44 groups in 8 regional markets) . exports to each of 352 commodity-by-region cells had been the same in 1961 as it was in 1954-56, the value of U.S. exports of such manufactures to these eight markets would have been about $11.1 billion in- stead of the $9.9 billion actually recorded. The 1961 share loss, measured in dollars, was double that in 1958. Since the total value of trade in manu- factures has risen in recent years, the dollar equivalent of share changes has been magnified. Table 1 arrays the commodity groups in order of the average relative change in U.S. shares of the eight regional markets. The table summarizes the principal data developed for this study. Table 1. — Array of Selected Commodity Groups in Order of Average Relative Change in U.S. Shares of Eight Regional Markets for Exports of Manufactures, 1958 and 1961 Original SITC numbers Commodity group Index of U.S. per- centage shares 1 (1954-56=100) Value equivalent of changes from 1954—56 average ($ million) U.S. exports to eight regional markets ($ million) 1961 1958 1961 1958 1961 1958 683-87, 689 Nonferrous base metals, ex. copper 152 131 112 107 102 98 96 95 93 93 90 90 86 86 82 80 65 63 37 112 116 130 100 105 77 91 92 99 105 91 97 84 97 98 96 83 76 82 +50 +56 +28 +18 +10 -14 -18 -16 -10 -14 -10 -200 -20 -45 -31 -63 -262 -610 -42 +9 +24 +47 415 -66 -44 -13 -1 48 -8 -50 -18 -9 -4 -JO -120 -315 -25 145 233 264 271 447 316 485 303 143 192 86 1,879 93 280 137 258 494 1,053 57 84 651, 654-57 Textile yarns and manufactures, ex. fabrics and clothing 174 682 201 641-2 214 715 Metalworking machinery 309 734 200 712-13 Agricultural machinery and tractors 424 714 143 652 156 861 Scientific and other instruments 170 561 79 716 653 Industrial machinery, other than power generating and metalworking. . 1,637 93 711 Power generating machinery 276 621, 629 Rubber manufactures 144 541 269 681 598 732 1,025 733, 735 109 -1, 193 -580 7,136 6,305 Total of 44 groups 90 99 94 99 -1, 158 -86 -565 -80 9,922 6,496 8,531 Excluding road motor vehicles, iron and steel, and industrial 5,271 1 Weighted average of eight regional markets. Reductions Centered in Three Product Groups The bulk of the average decline in U.S. shares in the 8 markets for the 44 major groups of manufactured goods continued in 1961 to reflect serious losses in only a few key product groups. Compared to the 1954-56 base period, major declines centered in steel, auto- mobiles, and industrial machinery. The overall U.S. share of exports to the eight markets combined would rise from 90 to 99 percent of the 1954-56 base if these three products were excluded. Smaller share losses and gains in the other product groups nearly offset each other. Of the $1.2 billion net "shortfall" of exports for all 44 groups of manufactures in 1961, automobiles accounted for $610 million, steel for $262 million, and industrial machinery for $200 million. Automobiles and iron and steel also accounted for the major share of the shortfalls in 1958 and 1960. Of the $565 million net shortfall in 1958, $435 million could be attributed to these two commodity groups; in 1960, losses in these categories nearly equaled the net shortfall. Losses and Gains in Other Commodity Groups Other important share losses from 1954—56 to 1961 related to pharmaceuticals, power-generating machin- ery, rubber manufactures, fabrics other than cotton, and miscellaneous transport equipment. Except for noncotton fabrics, the decline in U.S. share of the ex- port market for these products was accentuated after 1958. Commodity groups showing significant share gains in 1961 over the base years included copper, other non- ferrous base metals, textile yarn and manufactures, and paper manufactures. Although there was some deterioration from 1960, U.S. average share gains in 1961 for all these products except copper surpassed those in 1958. Share Declines Registered in Most Regions The average decline in U.S. shares of the 44 major groups reflected extensive losses in 6 of the 8 regional markets. Our most serious loss was in the important Latin American market where the U.S. share decreased by about one-sixth in 1961 compared both to 1954-56 and 1958. 2 An extreme drop occurred in the rela- tively minor African market, while U.S. market shares in Western Europe, Canada, Near East, and Far East registered average reductions from the base period of about 10 percent. Losses in Latin America, Western Europe, and Can- ada were particularly significant because three- fourths of U.S. exports in the 44 groups to the 8 regional markets went to these three markets. Of the total net shortfall of $1.2 billion, Latin America accounted for $462 million, Europe for $268 million, and Canada for $250 million. In contrast to our performance elsewhere, the U.S. share of the market in Oceania rose more than 50 per- cent between 1954-56 and 1961, a gain equivalent to nearly $100 million. The 1961 loss in the Western European market was similar to that registered in 1958. In the intermediate year 1960, however, the United States temporarily ex- ceeded its base period share of the European market for manufactures by 5 percent. The 1961 drop in our share of the Canadian market was an extension of the 6-percent slump experienced in 1958. In contrast, the 1961 U.S. share in the Far East was 4 percentage points above the 1958 level. Measurement of Losses Due to Three Commodity Groups The depressing effect on U.S. shares in the various regions caused by our poor performance in iron and steel, automobiles, and industrial machinery can be seen from the following table. It compares actual changes in U.S. shares with the changes that would have taken place if those three major product groups had been excluded from the calculations : Regional markets U.S. performance in 1961 compared to 1954—56 (expressed as percentage changes in shares) Including steel. autos, industrial machinery Excluding steel, autos. industrial machinery 455 -3 -9 -9 -10 -10 -16 -24 4-83 48 Near East 412 -7 Far East, excluding Japan -8 -9 -15 2 The exclusion of Cuba from the 1961 data, while exaggerating slightly the decline in U.S. share in Latin America, did not change the basic downward trend. See footnote 3, tables 4 and 5, for comparisons of summary data in- cluding and excluding Cuba. 723-680 O— 64- Chart A shows the 1961 net dollar equivalents of U.S. share changes from the base period for each of the eight markets and modifications that result if steel, automobiles, and industrial machinery are excluded. Broad Totals Exaggerate Competitive Share Changes Another and broader gage of the U.S. export situa- tion is the loss, calculated from unweighted totals, in the U.S. share of total manufactures exported to the entire foreign market (except the United States) by the major industrial nations. The overall decline from 1954-56 to 1961 in our share of this world market amounted to 18 percent. 3 Expressed in dollars, this represents a shortfall of $2^ billion in 1961 as com- pared to $800 million in 1958 and $1% billion in 1960. A shortfall calculated from unweighted totals reflects changes stemming both from com- petitive shifts in individual market shares and from other influences such as differences in market and 3 The directly computed overall share decline, from 1954—56 to 1961, for exports in 44 groups to 8 markets is 17 percent — almost identical. product buoyancy. Thus, it grossly overstates the possible net influence of shifts in relative competitive positions of the United States and other countries. Shifts in Regional Trade Patterns Unfavorable Differences in regional market buoyancy have had unfavorable effects on our total share of exports of manufactured goods in recent years. A major cause of the lag in U.S. exports, compared to those of com- peting industrial countries, has been the sluggishness of Western Hemisphere markets, where U.S. trade is paramount. U.S. exports to Canada and Latin America in 1961 would have been about $1.5 billion more than they were, even with the lowered shares obtaining in that year, had these two countries shown the same de- gree of expansion in imports of the 44 product groups as did the 8 markets combined. Stagnant industrial production and relatively minor gains in disposable in- come limited the increase in demand for imports of manufactured goods into Canada through 1961 to ap- proximately 20 percent over the base period level. The Latin American market, excluding Cuba, expanded by only about one-quarter in this period. Lower or slug- Chart A. — Net Dollar Equivalents of Share Changes in 1961 Compared to 1954-56 Net value equivalents of U.S. share losses were largest in the most important markets for U.S. manufactures - Western Europe, Latin America, and Canada Million dollars + 100 200 400 Million dollars + 200 Exclusion from the compilation of iron and steel, industrial machinery, and road motor vehicles would result in net share gains for Europe, Near East, and Japan European OECD Countries Japan Canada Latin Far East Oceania American (excl. Republics Japan) Afri. Near East Net value equivalent for 44 product groups - 200 400 - yr/A Iron and steel, road motor vehicles, industrial machinery -^ Sz^ \ ,, } European OECD Countries Japan Canada Oceania Latin American Republics Far East (excl. Japan) Afri Near East gish prices for some of the principal export commodi- ties from the latter region minimized export earnings. This fact, together with lessening investment in some countries, helped to account for the small expansion of effective demand for foreign goods in that area. The buoyancy of the Western European demand for manufactures did not boost our average share in world markets. While our exports to Europe rose sharply in value, they barely kept pace with the ex- pansion there, other than in the exceptional year 1960. Our relatively small participation in this market — 13 percent in 1961 — seriously limited possible benefits to our average share in exports to eight regions combined that could accrue from larger shipments to this one market. Nor was the U.S. position much improved by our continuing large share in the greatly expanded Japanese market, which remained the smallest of the eight regional markets separately considered. Shifts in Commodity Trade Patterns Favorable The effect of differences in the buoyancy of individual commodity groups, on balance, continued to be favor- able to the average U.S. share in world markets. For all groups, this share averaged 25 percent in 1961. In those large-value groups that expanded sharply, our share was generally higher. In contrast, in the large- value groups which showed less than average buoyancy the U.S. share was considerably lower. There were 14 commodity groups or combinations of groups, each valued at $1 billion or more in 1961, that accounted for about nine-tenths of the value of manu- factures exported to the 8 markets from all suppliers included in the study. Five of these 14 — power-gen- erating machinery, metalworking machinery, electrical machinery, other industrial machinery, and miscella- neous chemicals — were much more buoyant than the average for the 44 groups. Exports of two other groups, motor vehicles and paper manufactures, ex- panded at about the average rate. In the five expansive groups, our share averaged 29 percent; in the seven lagging groups, the U.S. share was only 14 percent. If exports of the 44 commodity groups from all suppliers had expanded at the average rate from the base period to 1961, U.S. exports in the latter year, at the current share, would have been about $0.7 billion less than they actually were. Exports of industrial machinery would have been lower by $300 million, exports of miscellaneous chemicals (including plastics) smaller by $200 million, and exports of office machin- ery and aircraft reduced by more than $100 million each. Shifts in Supplier Position of Major Competitors Some of the losses in U.S. share since 1954-56 can be attributed to the re-entry of exports from Japan and continental Europe into the various markets of the world. With the replacement of war-damaged or ob- solete productive facilities by modern plants and equip- ment and the satisfaction of urgent internal demand, Europe and Japan were able to free a sizable portion of their output for aggressive marketing efforts abroad. The share of European Economic Community (EEC) countries was higher in 1961 than in the base period in all of the regional markets except Japan and the Far East. Share gains were particularly strong in Canada, Latin America, and Africa. The large expansion in the value of EEC exports * to Western Europe brought a relatively moderate increase in share from 59 percent in 1954-56 to 63 percent in 1961. Even compared to 1958 share levels, increases in 1961 were substantial in all markets, with the exception of the Far East. Share gains were especially strong in Latin America after 1958. As could be anticipated, Japan also had a propor- tionately larger share of all eight markets in 1961 than in 1954-56. However, since that country supplied less than 10 percent of the total to each of the regional markets except the Far East, the dollar equivalent of Japan's share gains was significant only in the latter market. The United Kingdom export experience was similar to that of the United States, but the loss in overall share from 1954-56 to 1961 was more severe than our own. U.K. shares were lower in all markets except Canada and Latin America. The largest loss was in Oceania. A major factor leading to Britain's share reduction in the latter area was Australia's gradual elimination of discrimination against nonsterling imports after 1958. * Includes intra-Community trade. PART II Details of Analysis A. Growth in Demand For Foreign Manufactures Buoyancy of World Exports of Manufactures From 1954—56 to 1961, exports of the 44 major groups of manufactured goods from the world's prin- cipal suppliers to the 8 markets expanded 59 percent in value, from $24.6 billion to $39.3 billion. More than half of this increase occurred after 1959, the major part in 1960. The rise from 1960 to 1961 was small. The rate of expansion in exports of capital equip- ment and chemicals far exceeded that in other key manufactures. About 60 percent of the nearly $15 billion increase for all 44 commodity groups from the base period to 1961 was accounted for by a rise in machinery and transport equipment exports. Considering the eight markets separately, demand for foreign manufactures rose sharply in excess of the average only in Western Europe and Japan. Exports from the major industrial suppliers to Western Europe doubled in value from 1954-56 to 1961 and those to Japan trebled. In Canada and Latin America, markets that take nearly half of the U.S. exports of these 44 commodity groups, demand rose but moderately. All of the expansion in the African and Latin Ameri- can markets for these 44 groups took place before 1959, while markets in both Canada and Oceania have shown only limited growth since that time. The Western European market, on the other hand, boomed between 1958 and 1961, reaching $20 billion in value by the latter year. This unprecedented expansion accounted for two-thirds of the rise in exports of manufactures to the eight markets combined. U.S. Exports Less Expansive U.S. exports of manufactures rose far less strongly from 1954-56 to 1961 than did the average of exports from all major suppliers. U.S. shipments totaled $9.9 billion in value in 1961, an increase of 32 percent over the base period. This was considerably less than the 72 percent expansion of exports of manufactures from principal competitors. (Chart B.) Two-thirds of the total U.S. expansion of $2.4 billion occurred in a single year — 1960. Our exports of manufactures did not rise further in 1961. U.S. suppliers met rising world demand for broad types of manufactures with varying degrees of success. From 1954-56 to 1961, U.S. shipments of machinery and transport equipment rose by a little more than one- third, while those from other suppliers doubled. U.S. sales abroad of chemicals, which increased by more than 50 percent, were relatively strong. How- ever, they did not keep pace with the general expansion in chemical exports from all major industrial suppliers. Chart B.— U.S. AND FOREIGN EXPORT GROWTH Export gains of our principal competitors have caused widespread U.S. share losses in foreign markets for manufactures. 72% Growth 32o/o f Growth i Billion r 1961 $29.3 Billion 1 is < [oiiiiiK U.S. Exports Exports From Principal Competitors U.S. exports of other key manufactures remained relatively sluggish, growing by about one-sixth over the entire period, and even dropping fractionally in value from 1960 to 1961. The decline in our iron and steel exports was the principal reason for lagging sales in this residual group. Between the 1954-56 base period and 1961, shifts oc- curred in the relative importance of the regional mar- kets for U.S. exports of manufactures. With the sud- den growth in our shipments to Western Europe in 1960, that region became the principal market for American manufactures. (See Chart C.) Through 1959, exports to both Latin America and Canada had considerably exceeded those to Europe in value. Of the smaller regions, Japan and Oceania assumed greater importance as markets for the United States. Sales to Africa, on the other hand, declined in value. The trade data underlying the above comments are presented in the following tables 2 and 3, and are shown graphically in text charts beginning on page 9. Chart C. — Size of Markets for Manufactures Europe has become the principal market for U.S. exports of manufactures U.S. Exports European OECD Countrii Republi. Note." Values relate to 44 groups of manulactui European OECD, and Japan. I exported in 1961 from U.S., U.K., Col B. Share Changes Reviewed by Region In 7 of the 8 markets, U.S. shares of the 44 categories of manufactured exports averaged lower in 1961 than in 1954-56. There was a sizable 55-percent share gain in the eighth market, Oceania. Our share decline of 16 percent in the important Latin American market was the sharpest drop of all, except for the decline in the relatively small African market. 1 The weighted av- erage of share losses in each of four other markets — Western Europe, Canada, Near East, and Far East — showed declines in 1961 of approximately 10 percent from the base period. The U.S. position in 1961 appeared slightly stronger when compared to that in 1958 than that in 1954-56. Compared to 1958, the United States gained in Oceania and the Far East, approximately maintained its share in Western Europe and the Near East, but sustained further losses in the remaining four markets. In 1961, the weighted average U.S. share of the de- veloped markets — Canada, Western Europe, Japan, and Oceania — for exports of manufactures was 7 percent lower than in 1954-56. It had equaled the base pe- riod share in 1960 when losses in Canada were fully offset by gains elsewhere. In the following year, the U.S. supplier position was adversely affected by the 1 See footnote on page 3. Table 2. — Summary of Exports of Principal Manufactures to Eight Regional Markets by Broad Commodity Category, 1954-56 average and 1958-61 Supplier and year From major suppliers: 1954-56 average. . . 1958 1959 1960 1961 From the United States 1954-56 average. . , 1958 1959 1960 1961 U.S. percentage share: 1954-56 1958 1959 1960 1961 Total Chemi- cals Machinery and transport equipment Other selected manufac- tures Millions of dollars 24,626 29, 819 31,124 36,807 39, 260 7,522 8,527 8,336 9,939 9,924 3,085 11,723 3,864 15, 304 4,378 15, 814 4,996 18,364 5,315 20, 199 1,101 4,360 1,328 5,010 1,453 4,953 1,653 5,747 1,702 5,884 9,818 10, 651 10,932 13,447 13,746 2,061 2,189 1,930 2,539 2,338 Percent 30.5 35.7 37.2 28.6 34.4 32.7 26.8 33.2 31.3 27.0 33.1 31.3 25.3 32.0 29.1 21.0 20.6 17.7 18.9 17.0 Note: Major suppliers include United States, continental European OECD countries except Spain and Switzerland, United Kingdom, and Japan. Values relate to 44 principal commodity groups in U.S. trade (see Notes on Methodology). recurrence of share losses in Western Europe, further declines in Canada, and a shading of U.S. export strength in Japan. In the less-developed markets of the world — Latin America, Africa, Near East, and Far East — the weighted average of U.S. share indexes for principal manufac- tures in 1961 was 15 percent below that in 1954-56. The U.S. share losses in each of these markets ranged from 9 to 24 percent. The 24-percent decline in Africa was the deepest loss that occurred in any of the eight regional markets. The U.S. share of the Latin American market con- tinued to shrink from 1960 to 1961, but this loss was offset by a year-to-year gain in the three less-developed markets of the Eastern Hemisphere, leaving the aver- age U.S. share in all four less-developed markets un- changed from 1960 to 1961. Tables 4 and 5 present the basic commodity-group- by-regional-market data — indexes of U.S. percentage shares and value equivalents of share changes — which underlie the analysis in this and the succeeding section. Canada Canada's heavy dependence on the United States for manufactured goods lessened somewhat after the mid- dle 1950's. In 1954-56, the U.S. supplied 84 percent of the 44 groups of manufactures shipped to Canada. In 1961, the U.S. share was reduced to 75 percent. This loss principally reflected gains in sales by the Table 3. — Summary of Exports of Principal Manufactu United Kingdom and some members of the European Common Market. By 1958, relative to the base period, the average U.S. share index for 44 groups had already declined sharply to 94; thereafter, it dropped more gradually, reaching 90 in 1961. U.S. exports of manufactures to Canada in the 3 years ending 1961 were limited by the comparatively slow growth of the Canadian economy. Canada's gross national product rose less than 2 percent per year from 1959 to 1961, reflecting an expansion of only 4 per- cent in industrial production during that period. In recent years, limited opportunities to export to the sluggish Canadian market were a major factor in de- pressing the average U.S. share of exports to the eight regional markets analyzed in this study. The greatest U.S. export share losses in the Canadian market from 1954-56 to 1961 were in pharmaceuticals, textiles, motor vehicles, ships and nonmotorized vehi- cles, iron and steel, power-generating machinery, and industrial machinery. The decline in exports of in- dustrial machinery reflected, at least in part, the re- duced flow of capital investment from the United States to Canada in recent years. In power-generating equip- ment, the U.S. share dropped from 77 percent in the base period to 44 percent in 1961 and the United King- dom gained the entire difference. The value equivalent of losses in all types of non- electric machinery in 1961 amounted to about one-third of the total loss of $250 million. Motor vehicles were res, by Regional Markets, 1954-56 Average and 1958-61 Supplier and year Eight regional markets combined European OECD Canada Latin American Republics Africa Near East Japan Far East, other Oceania Millions of dollars From major suppliers: 1954-56 average . . 1958 1959 1960 1961 From the United States 1954-56 average. . 1958 1959 1960 1961 U.S. percentage share: 1954-56 average . . 1958 1959 1960 1961 24,626 9,569 2,505 3,954 2,866 1,234 266 2,899 29,819 11,925 2,770 4,985 3,547 1,694 459 3,150 31, 124 13, 391 3,089 4,522 3,403 1,713 483 3,236 36, 807 17, 360 3,078 4,726 3,577 1,946 645 3,802 39,260 19, 586 3,029 i 4, 783 3,390 2,061 925 4,098 7,522 1,397 2,095 2,374 379 272 158 691 8,527 1,598 2,178 2,938 385 330 304 653 8,336 1,631 2,378 2,478 353 344 289 642 9,939 2,842 2,354 2,492 369 369 403 779 9,924 2,686 2,270 i 2, 442 352 417 564 915 1,333 1,289 1,287 1,673 1,388 156 141 221 331 278 Percent 30.5 28.6 26.8 27.0 25.3 14.6 83.6 60.0 13.2 22.0 59.4 23.8 13.4 78.6 58.9 10.8 19.5 66.2 20.7 12.2 77.0 54.8 10.4 20.1 59.8 19.8 16.4 76.5 52.7 10.3 19.0 62.5 20.5 13.7 74.9 i 51.1 10.4 20.2 61.0 22.3 11.7 10.9 17.2 19.8 20.0 1 Excludes Cuba. Note: Major suppliers include United States, continental European OECD countries except Spain and Switzerland, United Kingdom, and Japan. Value* relate to 44 principal commodity groups in U.S. trade (see Notes on Method- ology). CHART D. U.S. share losses in the sluggish Canadian market have widened. Value Index. (1954-56 = 100) Canada U.S. Share Changes from 1954-56 Average z | -6% 1958 -9% 1960 | -10% 1961 Total Exports U.S. Exports - 220 - 180 - 140 100 1954-56 1957 Average 1958 1959 1960 1961 responsible for another third. The U.S. competitive position for the latter group showed improvement from 1960 to 1961, as our compacts recaptured a part of the market lost to small European cars in previous years. Compared with 1954-56, there were few U.S. share gains in 1961. These were limited to office machinery, copper, other nonferrous metals, and noncotton fabrics. In the last two groups, the U.S. share, although still higher than in the base period, had fallen since 1958. Other important U.S. losses in this market from 1958 to 1961 appeared in machinery of various types, iron and steel, and motor vehicles. Latin America The deterioration of the U.S. share position in the Latin American market for manufactures occurred only after 1958. The United States supplied 59 percent of this market in the latter year, just slightly below the share supplied in the base period. Thereafter, the U.S. share declined sharply, to 51 percent in 1961. 2 The Latin American market for manufactures has expanded little more than that of Canada since 1954-56. Depressed foreign exchange earnings be- cause of weak prices for some of its major export commodities, together with internal political and mone- tary problems, contributed to limiting Latin American imports of manufactures. Relative stagnation in this area had a sizable adverse effect on the overall U.S. export performance. 3 It should be noted that comparisons of the 44 product groups relate to 19 Latin American countries in 1961 and to 20 countries in other years. While this distorts the changes to some extent, exclusion of the originally important Cuban market from the totals for all years leaves the downward trend in shares in Latin America essentially unchanged. (See also footnote 3 to tables 4 and 5.) CHART E. The U.S. supplier position in the stagnant Latin American market has significantly deteriorated. Value Index (1954-56= 100) 220 Latin American Republics U.S. Share Changes from 1954- 56 Average - - -1% [ 1958 — 180 U.S. Exports 1960 1961 * -12% -16% 140 Total Exports 100 r * 1954-56 1957 1958 Average ♦Excludes Cuba in 1961. 1959 1960 1961 Share losses for the United States in this market averaged 16 percent in 1961. These losses were wide- ly spread through all 44 product categories. The U.S. share in industrial machinery fell by 15 percent, and in other nonelectrical machinery by 10 percent below the 1954-56 average. U.S. performance was especially poor in exports of office and metalworking machinery. After 1957, a reduction of about $100 million a year in new investment undoubtedly reduced the demand for U.S. capital equipment. There was a sizable slump in our share of Latin American machinery imports in 1960, followed by a farther drop in 1961. Other major losses compared to 1954-56 and 1958 were registered in motor vehicles and iron and steel. The sharp U.S. share decline in these two product groups in 1961 accounted for about half of the dollar equivalent of the net loss in all 44 groups of $462 mil- lion. The U.S. share of the Latin American market for pharmaceuticals, manufactured fertilizers, textile fab- rics, and scientific instruments also slumped. The United States registered significant gains, however, in its share of the region's market for nonferrous metals, aircraft, and textile yarns and manufactures. Western Europe Our share of the Western European market for man- ufactures remained small and showed no relative gain from 1954-56 to 1961. Except for a short-lived ad- vance to 15 percent of the market in 1960, our share was no higher than 13 percent in the years reviewed. On a weighted basis, the U.S. share index for the region, after soaring from 84 in 1959 to 105 in 1960, slipped back to 91 in 1961. Shortfalls were concentrated in three large com- modity groups in 1961: automobiles, steel, and indus- trial machinery. The value equivalent of losses from the base period in these three groups alone totaled $410 million. Steel accounted for $192 million of the loss, vehicles $164 million, and industrial machinery $54 million. Compared to 1960 when declines were already severe, the dollar equivalent of share losses in 1961 was double for steel, more than triple for industrial machinery, and up by 50 percent for road vehicles. The only other significant losses incurred in the European market between 1954-56 and 1961 were in pharmaceuticals and aircraft. CHART F. U.S. sales have responded to expanding European demand, but our share of the market has not been maintained. Value Index (1954-56 = 100) 260 Western Europe U. S. Share Changes from 1954-56 Average 220 1954-56 Average 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 In partial compensation for these losses, U.S. exports gained significantly in 1961 in many other product categories. Power-generating and office machinery, copper and other nonferrous metals, paper and manu- factures, scientific instruments, and all types of textiles showed outstanding increases. The U.S. share of exports to the European market was exceptionally high in 1960. Our good perform- ance was largely due to increased exports of two com- modity categories — aircraft and nonferrous metals. Deliveries of American jet planes to European airlines were heavily concentrated in that year. Unusually strong European demand for copper and aluminum also particularly benefited exports from the United States. Japan The vastly expanded value of U.S. exports in the 44 groups of manufactures to Japan roughly paralleled the more than threefold growth of the total Japanese CHART G. Gains in U.S. exports have been consistent with the growth of the Japanese market. Value Index (1954-56 = 100) market from 1954-56 to 1961. As a result, the United States was able to maintain a predominant supplier position in that market. In 1961, the weighted average U.S. share index was 97, a slight decline from the 1960 level of 102, and a considerable reduction from that of 108 in 1958. Contrary to the general trend for road motor vehicles, the U.S. share of the Japanese market for this product in 1961 was well above the 1954-56 base. U.S. shares of paper and manufactures, nonferrous metals, and sci- entific instruments were also consistently higher in recent years than in 1954-56. In all types of machinery except metalworking, however, our shares in 1961 were well below those in the base period. Other important U.S. share losses occurred in iron and steel, pharmaceu- ticals, and textiles. Compared to 1958, when the United States captured 8 percent more of the Japanese market than it had taken in the base period, the U.S. position in 1961 had deteriorated, particularly in iron and steel and in office, power-generating, and industrial machinery. Other Far East The United States increased its share of the rapidly growing Far Eastern market for manufactures in 1961 compared to preceding years. The average index of 10 the U.S. share in 1961 was 90 compared to the 1954-56 base. This represented a sizable recovery from 1959 when the U.S. share index was only 79. Measured in dollars, the equivalent of our 1961 share loss for all 44 groups was $105 million. Motor vehicles accounted for three-fourths of that loss. If they were excluded, the weighted average U.S. share index for the remaining 43 groups would rise from 90 to 97. Other key losses were in industrial, power-generating, and office machinery ; scientific instruments ; textile fabrics ; manufactured fertilizers; and rubber manufactures. Notable gains were registered in metalworking ma- chinery, aircraft, nonferrous metals, and iron and steel. CHART H. I Earlier U.S. share losses have been reduced in the Far Eastern market. Value Index (1954-56 = 100) 220 CHART I. U.S. exports have done best in Oceania. - U.S. Share Change from 1954-56 Ave For East age — 1958 1960 1961 Total Exports ^^^ ^^ *<>r ^ U.S. Exports -14% -16°; | -10% X^^ 1 1 1 1 140 100 1954-56 Average 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 The Far East was the only area in which iron and steel showed a gain. Large shipments of primary steel, plates, and rails sent to Pakistan with the aid of U.S. development loans were primarily responsible for the improvement. Far Eastern imports of textile fabrics from the indus- trial countries were considerably smaller in 1961 than in the base period, as domestic textile industries de- veloped and trade among some countries of the area expanded. Japan increased her competitive position in the Far East, relative not only to the United States, but also to major European suppliers. Shares for both the Com- mon Market countries and the United Kingdom were down sharply in 1961 compared to preceding years. This share reduction continued a downward trend for Britain, but reversed share gains achieved between 1954-56 and 1960 by the European Economic Com- munity. Value Index (1954-56 = 100) - 220 _ U.S. from -8%C 1960 1961 Share Changes 1954-56 Average 1958 Oceania M U.S. Exports M Total Exports + 55% + 55% 1 1 I i 180 - 140 100 1954-56 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 Average Oceania Of the eight markets analyzed, the 1961 U.S. share rose vigorously only in Oceania, the smallest market in value. After dropping to a low point, 8 percent under the base period in 1958, the average U.S. share index soared in 1961 to 155. U.S. products satisfied 20 per- cent of the market in 1961 compared to 12 percent in 1954—56. In 1961, the dollar equivalent of share gains in the 44 commodity groups was $99 million. From 1954-56 through 1959, total exports of manu- factures to Oceania from major suppliers changed little. These exports rose abruptly in 1960, however, concurrent with Australia's broad relaxation of quan- titative import controls and rapid economic expansion. In 1961, however, exports dropped back to a level only 6 percent above that of the base period. Along with the United States, the EEC and Japan also expanded their shares of the market in Australia and New Zealand. This trend toward more diversified trade relations was at the expense of the United King- dom, which had provided over 70 percent of imported manufactures in the base period. With few exceptions among the 44 commodities, U.S. share levels in 1961 were higher than in 1954—56. Principal increases were in manufactured fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, machinery of all types, paper, fabrics and other textile manufactures, and nonferrous metals. One of the few commodities in which there was a share loss for the United States in this market was steel, the production of which expanded substantially in Australia. 11 Africa Africa, our smallest market next to Oceania, con- tinued the traditionally strong trade ties with Europe through 1961. The U.S. share of the African market had remained at one-tenth since 1958, a drop from the 13-percent share in the base period. In 1961, the weighted U.S. share index for the 44 commodity groups was only 76 relative to the 1954-56 base, the lowest in any region. CHART J. U.S. share losses have been heaviest in the African market. Value Index " (1954-56 = 100) U.S. Share Changes from 1954-56 Average Africa -20° -27% -24% 1958 1960 1961 Total Exports - 220 180 140 100 1954-56 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 Average Total African demand for manufactures changed little in value between 1957 and 1960, then declined by 5 percent in 1961. In the same period, the Common Market gained in importance as a supplier, providing somewhat more than one-half of the area's require- ments for manufactures, while the British position diminished. U.K. manufactures still accounted for slightly more than one-fourth of the total exported to the market. U.S. share losses in the African market in 1961 were widespread. The largest loss was in road motor vehicles which contributed half of the total $113 million net dollar equivalent of the decrease for all 44 groups. Omitting road vehicles, the average U.S. share index for the other 43 groups would be raised from 76 to 89. Other important declines occurred in ships, steel, textile fabrics, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured fertilizers. Exports of ships from the United States generally refer to foreign registration, not physical movement. The virtual absence of "exports" of ships to Africa in 1960-61 was accounted for by a sharp reduction in the number of U.S.-owned ships registered in Liberia. The only U.S. share gains of significance were in textile yarns and manufactures, aircraft, and power- generating machinery. CHART K. U.S. exports have tended to reflect the sustained growth of the Near Eastern market. Value Index (1954-56 = 100) U.S. Share Chan from 1954-56 A ges verage N« | -10% 1958 1960 1961 | -15% | -9% Total Exports ^ ^ — r U.S. Exports Near East 220 180 100 1954-56 Average 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 Near East The overall U.S. share of the Near Eastern market, another relatively minor outlet for U.S. manufactures, held approximately steady from 1957 to 1961, with the exception of 1960 when it dipped slightly. In the last 5 years, the average U.S. share of the 44 principal man- ufactures exported to this market was 10 to 15 percent lower than in 1954-56. Total Near East demand for these manufactures rose from $1.2 billion in the base period to $2.1 billion in 1961. This was the only less-developed area where demand increased faster than the average for all eight regional markets. For a number of years, heavy U.S. share losses in exports of road motor vehicles to the Near East were the single most important factor in depressing our over- all market share. Measured in dollars, the equivalent of the U.S. share loss in vehicles alone was $56 million in 1961. This was $15 million more than the net dollar equivalent of losses for all 44 commodity groups com- bined. In 1961 the weighted average U.S. share for all 44 groups was 91 percent of the 1954-56 base period. But this share would rise significantly to 5 percent above the base if vehicles were excluded. U.S. share gains in the Near Eastern market were numerous in 1961. Most important were the gains in metalworking machinery, transport equipment other than motor vehicles, paper, textile yarn and manufac- tures, and nonferrous metals. There were minor losses in all types of machinery other than metalworking, and more sizable declines in shares of iron and steel, textile fabrics, and pharmaceuticals. 12 C. Share Changes Reviewed by Product From 1954-56 to 1961, the competitive performance of the principal U.S. manufactured exports varied widely by product, with losses in shares exceeding gains by a wide margin in both number and dollar equivalent. The diverse behavior of U.S. manufactured exports, translated into value equivalent terms, resulted in a net loss of $1.2 billion. In other words, the actual expansion of exports of $2.4 billion between 1954-56 and 1961 (see table 2) would have totaled $3.6 billion if the U.S. shares of individual commodity/market cells had remained the same in 1961 as they had been in the base period. In the 19 three-digit groups or combinations of groups for which 1961 comparisons with base period data can reliably be made, 3 there were declines in share ranging from 2 to 63 percent in exports valued at $5.7 billion, and gains of from 2 to 53 percent in groups totaling $1.4 billion. The loss in share for all groups averaged 10 percent (see table 1 ) . The most severe losses in 1961, as noted earlier, were those in the key motor vehicle, steel, and indus- trial machinery groups. Average share declines in the eight markets for these commodities ranged from one-tenth to more than one-third. Measured in dollars, the equivalent of losses in these three groups nearly equaled the total net shortfall for all 44 groups. Thus, among the other 41 groups, gains were almost suffi- cient to balance the losses. Major U.S. share reductions also occurred in non- cotton fabrics, rubber manufactures, pharmaceuticals, manufactured fertilizers, power-generating machinery, and miscellaneous transport equipment. Losses in the U.S. share of the market for these product groups were partially offset by gains of from one-eighth to one- third in textile yarn and manufactures, copper, and other nonferrous metals. If our performance from 1958 to 1961 is compared with that from the base period to 1958, a continued, but less rapid deterioration is evident. Measured on the basis of average share, the decline from 1958 to 1961 was two-thirds that of the earlier period. In a few commodity groups where the showing was poor through 1958, such as aircraft, agricultural ma- chinery, and office machinery, there was some improve- 3 The net dollar equivalent of changes in all 27 groups or combinations of groups used in this study was only $35 million less than that for the 19 groups shown separately in table 1. The eight groups not listed were excluded from that table because of lack of comparability of the 1961 data with those for earlier years. The significant groups in U.S. exports not reported on are organic chemicals, inorganic chemicals, miscellaneous chemicals, metal manu- factures, and electrical machinery. Some relevant comments on trade through 1960 are included in this section. ment in 1961. In a majority of cases, however, com- modities showing share declines in 1958 registered further losses by 1961. In two products, copper and metalworking machinery, important share gains achieved through 1958 were reduced in 1961. Addi- tional advances were made in the latter year in three groups of commodities where the U.S. performance in 1958 was equal to or better than that in the base period. These three groups were paper, textile yarns and manu- factures, and nonferrous metals other than copper. The trends in exports of several major products from the United States are compared with those from all industrial suppliers in Charts L and M, pages 16 and 17. Road Motor Vehicles (SITC group 732) The U.S. share in exports of road motor vehicles has declined in every year since 1954-56. Demand in the eight markets for these vehicles from principal sup- plier countries other than the United States more than doubled from the base period to 1961. On the other hand, U.S. exports of these vehicles declined in value and, in 1961, were $100 million less than in 1954-56. Thus, the United States provided only 24 percent of total exports in 1961, compared to 43 percent in the earlier period. In 1961, the United States accounted for nearly $1.1 billion of total road motor vehicle exports valued at $4.3 billion. Of this group, two major products, cars and trucks, are identifiable in U.S. statistics. U.S. ex- ports of passenger cars declined sharply in value and share by 1958, then fell more gradually in succeeding years. Exports of trucks (including buses) gained slightly in value in 1958 compared to 1954-56, though the U.S. share fell by aS least 10 percent. In 1961, our exports were almost $150 million less than in 1958, and our share had dropped drastically to only about half that of the base period. For the eight markets, the average of indexes of U.S. export shares for all road motor vehicles fell from 76 in 1958 to 63 in 1961. The dollar equivalent of the 1961 decline amounted to $610 million, almost double the 1958 shortfall of $315 million. U.S. shares declined in every market except Japan and Oceania, where only a tiny fraction of our total exports of vehicles were shipped. U.S. share losses were relatively less severe in Western Hemisphere than in Eastern Hemisphere markets. But, with more than two-thirds of U.S. road motor vehicle exports moving to Canada and Latin America, the bulk of the dollar equivalent of share losses was experienced in these two markets. Losses were also heavy in Europe, where the 13 U.S. share in 1961 was only 42 percent of the 1954-56 share. Industrial Machinery (SITC group 716) The U.S. share in exports of industrial machinery, other than metalworking and power-generating, has de- clined steadily since 1957. Following a gentle down- ward trend between 1958 and 1960, the U.S. share dropped sharply in 1961. In that year, the United States supplied 33 percent of the exports to eight markets, compared to 42 percent in the base period. Demand for industrial machinery rose to $5.7 bil- lion in 1961, gaining by more than 80 percent from 1954-56. After remaining approximately stable in value from 1957 to 1959, total exports expanded strong- ly in 1960 and 1961. U.S. exports did not parallel this growth. They gained only half as fast as total exports from the 1954-56 base period to 1961. Share losses in this commodity group were significant in the compu- tation of the total U.S. loss because they occurred in such a large and buoyant product group. The average of indexes of U.S. shares in the eight regional markets for industrial machinery held at 97 percent of the base period in 1958 and 1960, but dropped to 90 percent in 1961. Measured as dollar equivalent, this drop amounted to $200 million in 1961, a sharp increase from $50 million in 1958 and $60 million in 1960. The U.S. share of industrial machinery exports dropped in every regional market in 1961, compared to 1954-56, with the exception of Oceania and Africa, two of the smaller markets in terms of dollars. The U.S. share loss of 16 percent in Latin America was equivalent to $91 million, almost half of the total net shortfall for this product. A lesser decline of 8 percent in the Canadian market was equivalent to a $33 million loss while the 10-percent decline in Europe corre- sponded to a value of $54 million. Aircraft (SITC group 734) The value of U.S. exports of aircraft to the eight regional markets moved erratically after 1957, while exports from the other major suppliers were nearly stationary at approximately $!/3 billion. As a result, U.S. shares of the total market varied enormously from year to year. U.S. exports in 1961 took almost the same share of the total market (50 percent) as they had in 1954-56. In the intermediate years, the U.S. share ranged from one-third to two-thirds of total exports. The fluctuating export pattern in recent years was related to the introduction of U.S. jet aircraft to foreign commercial airlines. Export troughs due to model changeover alternated with peak deliveries as new air- craft became available to meet foreign orders. The value of U.S. aircraft exports climbed from $200 million in 1958 to $536 million in 1960, then sagged to $317 million in 1961. The average net dollar equivalent of the 2-percent share loss in 1961 for the eight regional markets was only $13% million, and was concentrated wholly in Europe and Canada. These two markets took more than three-quarters of U.S. exports in 1960, compared to a little over one-half in 1961. They were largely responsible for the average share gain of 24 percent in 1960, representing $103 million in value over the 1954- 56 base. Other Machinery and Transport Equipment (SITC groups 711-15, 733, 735) In exports of other types of machinery and transport equipment, losses in U.S. shares were general, with the notable exception of exports of metalworking machin- ery. In that commodity group, the average U.S. share of eight regional markets in recent years has been slightly above the base period. The U.S. share in ex- ports of this product were at or above the 1954-56 level in all markets but Canada and Latin America, and were especially buoyant in the Near East. For both agricultural and office machinery, there was a considerable improvement in 1961 from earlier share reductions. The U.S. share index for office machinery averaged 95 for eight regional markets and ranged from 105 to 107 in Europe, Canada, and Oceania, areas in which advanced electronic equipment found a good market. In most of the less-developed markets, where demand for more traditional types of office machinery predominates, U.S. shares were down sharply from the base period. In all markets except Japan and Africa, the U.S. share of exports of agri- cultural machinery was within two percentage points, plus or minus, of the base period. A relatively poor performance was recorded for U.S. exports of power-generating machinery. The average U.S. share index stood at 86 in 1961 compared to 97 in 1958. U.S. losses were primarily due to sharp share declines in Japan and, especially, in Canada. The U.S. share index for Europe gained by one-fourth over the base period. In ships and other transport equipment, U.S. share losses were especially heavy. In 1954-56, the United 14 States took about 10 percent of a $1 billion market. By 1961, the U.S. share of a bigger market had fallen to 4 percent. In terms of dollar equivalent, U.S. share losses in these machinery and transportation groups for the eight regional markets totaled $111 million in 1961. Lack of comparability of 1961 data with those of earlier years for the major group of electrical machin- ery makes an accurate appraisal of our performance in that group impossible. The data through 1960 for U.S. exports of electrical machinery show a deteriora- tion in share compared to 1958, due primarily to a shift in our relative supplier position in Latin America. Iron and Steel (SITC group 681) The average U.S. share of exports of iron and steel from the world's major suppliers declined by about one-third from 1954-56 to 1961. With the exception of the Far East, the U.S. share was lower in every major regional market in 1961 than in the base period. U.S. share losses were extremely heavy in Europe, where the United States took only one-third of its base period share, and in Africa, where the earlier U.S. share was cut in half. Relatively less severe, but still significant, was the deterioration of the U.S. supplier position in Western Hemisphere markets. The U.S. share of the Latin American market dropped by one- third and that of the Canadian market by one-sixth. By 1961, destinations in this hemisphere had become relatively less important for U.S. exports. Only about 45 percent of U.S. iron and steel shipments went to these markets, compared to nearly 60 percent in 1954-56. Demand for iron and steel reflected world tensions as well as cyclical fluctuations in regional economic ac- tivity in the period under consideration. The value of such exports from all principal suppliers rose abruptly from base levels in 1957, the year of the Suez crisis. After dropping in 1958-59, exports returned in 1960- 61 to 1957 levels, primarily because of greatly expanded demand in Western Europe. Compared to 1954-56, the value of iron and steel exports in 1961 was greater by 41 percent. Although U.S. exports of iron and steel responded to the unusual world demand in 1957, they lacked real growth in recent years. In fact, U.S. exports in 1961 were lower by $150 million, or by 25 percent, than in the base period, and except for 1959, when the pro- longed steel strike took place, they were the smallest in value for any recent year. In net dollar equivalent, U.S. shares of iron and steel exports to the eight major regional markets in 1961 were down $262 million from the base period. Europe alone accounted for $192 million of this de- cline, and Latin America for $54 million. Copper and Other Nonferrous Metals (SITC groups 682-89) The U.S. share in exports of unwrought and worked copper to foreign markets through 1961 was consist- ently higher than in 1954-56. However, in 1961, the average U.S. share was only 12 percent above that of the base period, compared to approximately 30 percent in both 1958 and 1960. The net dollar equivalent of the increased U.S. share for eight regional markets was $28 million in 1961, $19 million less than in 1958. Our performance in Europe, where the U.S. share was 16 percent above the base period — equivalent to a gain of $25 million — was the controlling factor in this showing. The gain in the U.S. share in exports of nonferrous metals other than copper surpassed that of all other product groups. In 1961, the weighted U.S. share index for eight regional markets reached 152, equiva- lent to a gain of $50 million. This performance was considerably below the record set in 1960, however, when the U.S. share index soared to 234, and the dollar equivalent of the gain to $136 million. It should be noted that data for copper are seriously inadequate in terms of the competition provided to U.S. sales in various markets. Our copper exports are almost wholly of unwrought metal. While two or three European countries are major exporters of unwrought copper, the principal world suppliers — Canada, Congo, Chile, and Rhodesia — are outside the scope of this study. For worked copper, which represents about one-third of the value of total copper exports shown for 1961 (although only 6 percent of U.S. exports) , the main U.S. competitors, with the exception of Canada, are those included in this study. Similarly, the measurement of U.S. export perform- ance in other nonferrous metals is incomplete, since industrial suppliers represent only part of the competi- tion U.S. products face in foreign markets. Textiles (SITC groups 651-657) U.S. exports of textile yarn and manufactures (other than fabrics and clothing) have been strong since 1954- 56. These exports have grown almost steadily through 1961, rising at a rate faster than did exports from other maj or suppliers as a group. 15 Chart L— GROWTH IN VALUE OF EXPORTS OF MANUFACTURES 42 - 30 - 24 - 18 - 12 - 6 - 1954-56 Average TOTAL OF 44 PRODUCT GROUPS (In Billions of Dollars) 1961 PHARMACEUTICALS Billion Dollars 2 U.S. Exports TEXTILE YARN AND MANUFACTURES r . -4 -2 7// m