— : A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR TRAINING SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://archive.org/details/studytodetermineOOariz A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR TRAINING SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL prepared by Arizona State University for the Economic Development Administration This technical assistance study was accomplished by professional personnel under contract with the Economic Development Administration. The statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and other data in this report are solely those of the contractor and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary Ross D. Davis, Assistant Secretary for Economic Development September 1967 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C., 20402 - Price $1.75 FOREWORD Aviation's dynamic growth since early in this century has dramatically refashioned America's travel patterns and given new form to the economic and social structure of the Nation. The greatly increased mobility afforded by air travel has proven particularly attractive to businessmen and opened up new modes of industrial development and plant site location. Aviation technology today is on the verge of significant advances in a number of areas. The resulting increases in both number and complexity of aircraft will generate a continuing need for an adequate supply of skilled flight and ground personnel. This study, prepared by Arizona State University under contract to the Economic Development Administration, investigates the feasibility of meeting the expected need through establishment of a civil aviation education center. \ Ross D. Davis Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR TRAINING SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL Study Team Walter E. Burdette - Project Director Victor E. Rothe - Project Co-Director Weldon D. Bagley Harold T. Bean John Coppinger Charles W. Evans Lowell W. Frederick Lyle L. Milhone James T. Pyle William H. Reed Edwin L. Richardson James L. Schamadan Robert A. Schoen D. Clay Whybark Division of Industrial Design and Technology Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgment is due many individuals and organizations who contributed their time and effort in providing the background information needed to conduct this study. The authors are particularly indebted to the following organizations for providing special data and for allowing the use of their published information: Aerospace Industries Association of America, Inc. Aircraft Electronics Associations Inc. Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association Air Line Pilots Association, International Air Transport Association of America American Airlines, Inc. American Association of Airport Executives Arizona Economic Development Council Aviation Development Council Beech Aircraft Corporation The Boeing Company Bonanza Air Lines, Inc. Cessna Aircraft Company Civil Aeronautics Board Civil Air Patrol Douglas Aircraft Company, Inc. Federal Aviation Administration General Electric Company General Learning Corporation International Civil Aviation Organization Lockheed Aircraft Corporation National Aviation Trades Association, Inc. National Business Aircraft Association, Inc. North American Aviation, Inc. Piper Aircraft Corporation Trans World Airlines, Inc. United Air Lines, Inc. U. S. Department of Defense U. S. Department of Labor West Coast Airlines, Inc. Special recognition is due many individuals too numerous to mention within the airlines, aircraft manufacturing organizations, state and federal government, military agencies, trade associations, and local organizations who contributed their valuable time and provided background material and advice to the study. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgments i Table of Contents ii Figures Listing vii General Introduction 1 Summary 4 Section I 4 Section II . 5 Section III 5 Section IV 6 Section V „ 6 Conclusions 7 Recommendations 9 Epilogue 12 SECTION I - QUANTITATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL General Civil Air Carrier Quantitative Requirements for Pilots and Mechanics Introduction 3 Sources of Data 5 Historical Relationships 9 Forecasting RPMS , RCTMS and Aircraft 23 Possible Limitations on Future Growth 38 Statistical Description of Pilot and Mechanic Force 44 Annual Loss Rate of Pilots and Mechanics 51 Forecast Results and Some Implications of Sensitivity Analysis 62 General Aviation Quantitative Requirements for Pilots and Mechanics Introduction 83 Assumptions 85 Data Sources 85 ii Page Active General Aviation Fleet . 87 Projected Fleet Size 90 Flight Hours Forecast 91 Commercial Pilot Requirements 95 Present Pilot Employment .... 98 Commercial Pilot Requirements Forecast „ . . . . 99 General Aviation Mechanic Requirements ... 102 Present Mechanic Employment ..... ..... 102 Mechanic Requirements Forecast 105 Discussion of Other Personnel Requirements 108 Electronics and Radio Personnel 108 Flight Instructors Ill Marketing Personnel ........ 112 Manufacturer and Business Aviation Requirements ..... 114 Port Authority and State Commission Requirements ..... 114 Summary of General Aviation Requirements ..... 117 A Projection of the Supply of Commercial Pilots and a Comparison to the Demand Introduction ................ 118 Military Pilot Training and Releases ............. 119 Non-Military Commercial Pilot Certification .......... 124 The Critical Production Level of Commercial Certificates . . . 129 Maintaining an Adequate Supply ................ 137 Conclusions • . . • 138 Recommendations „ 141 SECTION II - CURRICULUM STUDY Introduction . ......... 1 Assumptions ......... . 4 Methodology . . . ............. 5 Maintenance Technician Curriculum ... ....... 6 Allen Study 6 Revision to FAR- 147 11 Emerging Industry Needs 11 FAA Certificated Programs ................ 12 Arizona State University Curriculum ........... 16 Discussion . 19 Pilot Curriculum . . .......... 21 Current Job Skills - Knowledge .... ......... . 21 Projected Industry Estimates ............... 22 in Page FAA Certificated Programs 25 Arizona State University Curriculum 26 Discussion 30 New Education Technology 32 Conclusions 40 Recommendations 42 SECTION III - SITE SELECTION STUDY Introduction . 1 Methodology 1 Description of Sites . 3 Litchfield Naval Air Station , . 3 Land 4 Runways 4 Bldgs., Structures, and Misc. Facilities ...... 6 Utilities 7 Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield 8 Land 9 Runways . ......... 9 Buildings, Structures, Etc 11 Utilities 11 Suitability of Proposed Sites 11 Litchfield Naval Air Station 12 Land 12 Runways 12 Buildings 12 Utilities 12 Proximity to Other Air Operations 12 Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield . . 21 Land 21 Runways 21 Buildings and Utilities 21 Proximity to Other Air Operations 21 Economic Factors 24 Geographic Description 25 Transportation Facilities 25 Roads 26 Present Use of Land Area 26 Factors Contributing to the Economic Decline 27 Population and Labor Force 27 Manpower Needs to Reduce Unemployment 28 Current Economic Development Programs 30 IV Page Economic Impact of Proposed Training Center Potential Job Opportunities. , . . . . Site Development Facilities Development Operation of Training Center . . Services Potential Income to Community .... Summary Discussion . . 32 32 32 33 33 34 35 37 38 Conclusions Recommendations 41 42 SECTION IV - COST AND FINANCING Introduction 1 Assumptions . ........ 3 Methodology 4 Development of Cost Factors .......... . 4 Space Requirements <. 4 Current Enrollment in Aeronautical Technology (Arizona State University) ...... 5 Projected Arizona State University Enrollment ... 5 Growth in National Enrollment ........... 7 Enrollment Summary ................. 7 C las sroom/La.b oratory Space Requirements Per Student 9 Student Residence Space Requirements ........ 13 Summary of Space Requirements ........... 13 Unit Cost Factors ............. . . 15 Classroom/Laboratory Costs 15 Student Residence Costs .... 18 Summary of Cost Factors 21 Facility Cost Estimates for Proposed Center ......... 21 Educational Facilities Cost Estimates 22 Student Residence Facilities Cost Estimates ....... 24 Flight Center Facilities Costs ............. 25 Operations Building Cost Estimates ......... 25 Hangar Cost Estimates ............... 27 Total Facilities Cost Summary .............. 30 Equipment Cost Estimates ................... 30 Aircraft ........................ 30 Ground Support Equipment ................ 32 Synthetic Trainers ................... 34 Summary of Equipment Cost Estimates ........... 34 Page Operations Cost Estimates 38 Academic Center Operating Cost Estimates 38 Flight Center Operating Cost Estimates 41 Personnel Requirements 41 Annual Personnel Cost Estimates 45 Annual Operating Cost Estimates/Hour/Aircraft .... 45 Annual Rental Cost Estimates 49 Estimated Annual Operating Cost of Flight Center . . 49 Financing 52 Sources and Distribution of Education Funds 52 Further Need for Responsibility Sharing 55 Financing Plan 58 Role of Arizona State University 59 Role of the Aviation Industry 60 Role of the Government 61 Conclusions 62 Recommendations 64 SECTION V - IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Introduction 1 Assumptions ...... 1 Short-Range Plans ... 2 Negotiation with Tribal Council 2 Land 3 Site Development 3 Facilities Development 3 Establishment of a Non-Prof it Organization 4 Preliminary Design Study . . 4 Flight Training Facilities Construction ......... 18 Flight Training Program 18 Detailed Design - Academic Facilities ... 18 Academic Facilities Construction 19 Long-Range Plans 20 A Computer-Aided Learning (CAL) Experiment 20 Results Expected and Use of Findings 27 Area Vocational Education Development Program 28 Regional-National Program 28 Implications for Proposed Training Center 29 Conclusions 31 Recommendations 31 VI FIGURES No. Section I 1 Total Certificated Route Air Carriers Data . . 6 2 Total Certificated Route Air Carriers Data ....... 7 3 Pilot Employment (Aircraft and RPMS) ........... 10 4 Pilot Employment (Transformed RPMS) .......... 11 5 Single Linear Correlation Coefficients (Pilot Employment) * 13 6 Single Linear Correlation Coefficients (Mechanic Employment) • •••••••..... . ■ 14 7 Multiple Linear Correlation Coefficients (Pilot Employment) ..................... 16 8 Multiple Linear Correlation Coefficients (Mechanic Employment) ................ 17 9 Pilot Employment Projection Equations ......... 19 10 Mechanic Employment Projection Equations ........ 20 11 Forecast Error Distribution (Pilots) .......... 21 12 Forecast Error Distribution (Mechanics) ........ 22 13 RPMS Forecasts - Various Sources ............ 28 14 RPMS Projections ................... 29 15 RCTMS Forecast ..................... 32 16 RCTMS Projections ................... 33 17 Aircraft Forecasts ................... 36 18 Aircraft Fleet Projections .......... 37 19 Components of New Pilot Requirements 45 20 Age Distribution of Pilots ............... 47 21 Age Distribution of Mechanics ............. 49 22 Age Distribution of Pilot New Hires .......... 50 23 Age Distribution of Mechanic New Hires ......... 52 24 Pilot Attrition Rates ................. 55 25 Pilot Attrition Rate Probability Distribution i. i O J cC LX Oil Oeooaseaoosseasooveoo* J / 26 Pilot Early Retirement Rates .............. 61 27 Pilot Early Retirement Rate Probability Distribution Projections ..................... 63 28 Arizona State University Pilot Forecast ........ 64-68 29 Projected Pilot Employment ................ 70 30 Projected Cumulative New Pilots Required ........ 72 31 Arizona State University Mechanic Forecast ....... 73-77 VII No. Page 32 Projected Mechanic Employment „ . 79 33 Projected Cumulative New Mechanics Required . 80 34 Sensitivity of New Pilot Requirements .......... 81 35 Distribution of Aircraft and Flight Hours By Category of Operation ..... ............ 89 36 Forecast of Fleet Size ......... 92 37 General Aviation Active Aircraft - Fleet Size Forecast . 93 38 Estimated Hours Flown in General Aviation, By Type of " -l y jlii^ •••••••••••••••••••••••• y^-T 39 General Aviation Flight Hours Flown - Forecast ..... 96 40 General Aviation Flight Hours Per Year - Forecast .... 97 41 Pilot Age Distribution By Type of Employer ...... . 100 42 General Aviation Pilots - Retirement .......... 101 43 General Aviation Professional Pilot Needs . 103 44 General Aviation Professional Pilot Needs - Cumulative New Hires ................. 104 45 Mechanics Age Distribution 106 46 General Aviation Mechanics - Retirement 107 47 General Aviation Mechanics - Forecast 109 48 General Aviation Mechanics - Cumulative New Hires Needed 110 49 Military Pilot Training and Releases - All Military Services 121 50 Projected Military Pilot Production - All Military Services 122 51 Commercial Pilot Certificates Issued and Active 125 52 Issued and Active Commercial Pilot Certificates ..... 126 53 FAA Certificated Pilot Schools, Active Flight Instructor Certificates, and Flight Instructor Certificates Issued ............... . . 127 54 FAA Certificated Pilot Schools and Active and Issued Flight Instructor Certificates . « . . . 128 55 Past Actual Demand and Supply of Civilian Professional Pilots ............. 131 56 Civilian Professional Pilot Demand and Supply 132 Disposition of Active Commercial Certificates - June 1966 134 Projection of the Critical Level of Commercial Pilot Certificate Issuances ..... 135 59 Projection of the Critical Level of Commercial Certificate Issuances 136 Section II 1 Maintenance Technician Curriculum 8 2 Maintenance Technician Program - Respondent Distribution 13 vm No, Pa^e 10 11 Arizona State University Proposed Maintenance Technician Training Program ...... ........ 18 Pilot Curriculum .................... 23 Pilot Training Program - Respondent Distribution .... 24 Option I - Aeronautical Technology Pattern ....... 27 Option II - Pilot Training Program Pattern ....... 28 Option III - Aviation Management Training Pattern .... 29 Air Transportation Program ............... 31 System Design for Educational Technology ........ 34 Operation of Educational Technology System ....... 38 Section III 1 Geographic Relationships of Proposed Sites . . 2 2 Litchfield Naval Air Station, Showing the Runway and Permanent Structures ......... ... 5 3 Development Areas and Proposed Training Center Locations 10 4 Profile of V-16 Airway Crossing 14 5 Areas Traveled by Luke AFB Jet Traffic 15 6 Luke AFB Runways 03 Jet Departures 16 7 Luke AFB Runways 21 Jet Departures 17 8 Luke AFB Jet Entries ........... 18 9 Operating Areas in Phoenix Vicinity ..... 20 Section IV 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Projected Arizona State University Enrollment - 1966-75 . 6 Growth in College Enrollment 8 Net Assignable Building Space Per Student Enrolled ... 10 Non-Housing Space Per FTE Student and Normal Capacity of Facilities - Actual and Projected 11 Median Space Requirements for Secondary Schools in Sq. Ft. /Student By Regions ..... 12 Survey of Dormitory Space Allocation .......... 14 A Survey of Educational Facilities Costs Per Square Foot 16 Median Cost Per Square Foot By Region 17 Median Cost Per Square Foot 19 Survey of Student Residence Costs ..... 20 Educational Facilities Cost Estimates 23 Student Residence Facilities Cost Estimates 26 Operations Building Cost Estimates 28 Hangar Space and Cost Estimates 29 IX No. Page 15 Total Facilities Cost Estimates 31 16 Aircraft Cost Estimates 33 17 Ground Support Equipment Cost Estimates 35 18 Synthetic Trainer Cost Estimates 36 19 Summary of Equipment Cost Estimates 37 20 Personnel Requirements for Operation of Academic Center . . 39 21 Personnel Cost Estimates (Annual) for Academic Center ... 40 22 Estimated Annual Operating Cost of Academic Center .... 42 23 Estimated Personnel Requirements for Flight Center .... 46 24 Estimated Personnel Costs for Flight Center 47 25 Annual Aircraft Operations Cost Estimates 48 26 Annual Leasing Cost Estimates 50 27 Estimated Annual Operating Costs of Flight Center 51 Section V 1 Implementation Schedule 6 2 Program Schedule - Computer-Aided Learning Experiment ... 22 x A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR TRAINING SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL General Introduction Powered flight, which did not exist sixty- four years ago, has grown until it is now, and has been since July 1962, the largest single non-agrarian employer of people in the America economy. The employment figure in the manufacturing phase of aerospace accounted for 1,400,000 people at the end of 1966. The manufacturing of airframes alone accounted for the employment of more than 600,000 persons. The significance of aviation can be evaluated best in light of the overall spectrum of transportation. America has shifted emphasis from a production economy to a distribution economy to such a degree that consumer expenditures for transportation have grown at a rate twice as great as consumer expenditures for all other goods and services since World War II. In 1965, the Gross National Product was $697 billion. This is forecast to increase to $967 billion by 1970. Expenditures for transportation in 1965 were $209 billion and are expected to grow to $290 billion a year by 1970. Air transportation was 7% of the total national transportation expenditure in 1965 or $14.6 billion. This is expected to grow to $40.6 billion by 1970, or approximately 147 of the total national transportation expenditures. The changing patterns and modes of travel resulting from this dynamic growth have altered the economic and social structure of the nation. People have become accustomed to mobile ways of living and businesses have become accustomed to depending on modern means of travel for carrying on their activities. The growth picture cited above is based partly on the fact that aviation technology is, today, on the threshold of significant advances in a number of areas. Specific developments which are presently underway include the development of the supersonic transport, short-haul transport, stretched jet, and very large passenger/cargo jet aircraft, such as the C-5 and Boeing 747. In general aviation, the numbers of aircraft are expected to increase from slightly under 100,000 units in 1965 to over 300,000 units in 1980; from slightly over 16 million annual flight hours in 1965 to over 60 million in 1980. These developments will open new passenger and airfreight markets and will result in significant increases in personal flying, as well as in productivity in commercial service. The increase in numbers and complexity of aircraft will also generate requirements for greater numbers of more highly skilled personnel. At a time when aviation is entering its greatest period of growth, a critical problem has developed with respect to availability of highly skilled personnel, particularly pilots and mechanics. This problem has been developing slowly since 1960. Its historical background is as follows : 1. Twice during the period 1945 to present, the labor market for pilots and mechanics was flooded with a large surplus of trained personnel released from the military services following World War II and the Korean War. It was extremely difficult for many pilots, even with extensive training and experience, to find flying jobs in the civil aviation field. 2. In 1958, the industry entered a new era through the introduction of jet aircraft. The new jets were capable of greater payloads and higher speeds, and one aircraft could do the work of many. For example, one 707 could replace as many as seven DC-7 aircraft in service at that time. The introduction of the jets reduced the requirements for pilots and some low seniority flight personnel were actually furloughed. 3. The interest of our nation's youth declined somewhat as they observed these developments. An atmosphere had been created that made aviation an unattractive choice for young people seeking stable, secure careers. The following comments were frequently submitted in response to questions raised by researchers studying flight skills and training: "Why select a career that was already over- crowded?" - "Aircraft mechanics are underpaid and many must find jobs in other industries, so why should I pay money I don't have to learn a trade for a job which is not available?" Consequently, enrollment in aviation courses dwindled and the number of schools offering aviation training slowly decreased. 4. The lack of interest and the reduction in training of new pilots has also occurred at a time when World War II pilots now flying in civil aviation were being lost in ever- increasing numbers due to retirement, for medical reasons, or due to promotion. Early in 1964, the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Agency, Mr. Najeeb Halaby, established an Aviation Human Resources Study Board because of his growing concern with the number of indications that civil aviation might be facing potentially serious shortages of highly skilled workers requiring extensive training. The Board's study was given the working name of "Project Long Look". The Board was authorized to conduct necessary research and analysis to measure current manpower resources in military, commercial, and general aviation. The Board determined chat significant numbers of flight and maintenance personnel would be required tc meet the growth needs of the industry and that annual attrition losses of personnel due to retirement, disability, or promotion will increase substantially between 1965 and 1980. It was further determined that fewer military pilots are available than in previous years and the percentage of military pilots continuing on in civilian aviation is dwindling. The report stated that adequate numbers of trained flight /mechanical personnel will not be available at present training and attrition rates. On the basis of the future quantitative and qualitative needs, as indicated in the foregoing discussion, and because of its interests in and responsibility for the development of skills and knowledge in the field of aviation, Arizona State University embarked on a program to determine the feasibility for establishing an aviation training operation as a continued part of its functions. Because of the economic development potential for such a training operation, the study was sponsored by the U. S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration. Many contributions were also made to the study by local and national organizations with interests in the fields of aviation and education. The immediate objective of this study was to determine the feasibility for the establishment of a program for training skilled flight and non- flight personnel which are critically needed by the nation's aviation industry. The training program visualized would provide for academic training of both ground support and flight personnel, including a four- year baccalaureate degree in Aeronautical Technology earned in an accredited university, with primary and advanced flight training conducted at an appropriate training base. The Feasibility Study would include an accurate determination of the needs with respect to both types and numbers of personnel to be trained, the establishment of detailed curricula for the various training courses, the selection of the most suitable training base for the flight operations portion of the program, and the development of detailed costs and methods for financing such a program. The study was conducted in coordination with and extensive cooperation from the aviation industry. The study was initiated in December 1966 and continued for a period of six months, culminating in this final report. The study included five major areas of investigation, the results of which are presented in this report under Sections I through V. Following is an abstracted summary of the work performed, along with major conclusions and recommendations from the five sections of the report. Summary Section I - Quantitative Requirements for Skilled Aviation Personnel : This part of the overall study was conducted in three divisions -- the civil air carrier requirements, the general aviation requirements, and a projection of the supply and demand for professional pilots. Requirements for non- commercial pilots or those who fly for personal reasons were not treated in this study due, primarily, to the lack of documentation in this area of aviation operations. (Total aircraft units and total flight hour estimates did, however, include personal flying.) In the civil air carrier requirements part of the study, data was acquired from leading carriers, aircraft manufacturers, aircraft equipment manufacturers, Air Line Pilots Association, Air Transport Association of America, Civil Aeronautics Board, Federal Aviation Administration, International Civil Aviation Organization, and from numerous key individuals, The data were translated into revenue passenger and cargo ton-miles of operation and aircraft fleet size projections, with due recognition of the various potential growth limiting factors. A mathematical model was also developed for use in computer prediction of future cockpit and mechanic work forces, based on historical relationships between all of the key growth factors and the growth data obtained from the sources cited. The pilot and mechanic work force projections were then treated to sensitivity analysis by varying some of the input data factors in the mathematical model for the purpose of determining those factors which have the greatest influence on the projections of future needs. In the general aviation category, the total fleet size and annual hours of operation were forecasted, using two different growth rates. Using the fleet size and annual hours of operation projections, the future (1965-1980) requirements for commercial pilots and total mechanics were projected. Finally, the commercial pilot requirements were analyzed in terms of supply from military releases and from non-military pilot training programs. A "critical projection level" method was established to aid in determining production levels of commercial pilots to supply the needs of the future. Further military release data is needed, however, to project the findings to 1980. Section II - Curriculum Study : This part of the overall study concerned itself with analyses of existing mechanic and pilot curricula and a determination of the improvements that should be made to meet the current and future qualitative needs of the industry. As a result of these analyses, current Arizona State University curricula were upgraded and are now considered qualitative improvements over existing curricula primarily in their assessment of and provisions for meeting the future needs of the industry. The role of new educational technology and the part it can play in the improvement of aviation training was studied in considerable depth. A number of conclusions and recommendations for the future continued improvement of aviation curricula were developed as a result of these studies . Section III - Site Selection Study : In this section of the overall study, consideration was given to the possibility of utilizing one of two sites as a location for the proposed training center. The two sites were the Litchfield Naval Air Station west of Phoenix (being closed by the Department of Defense) and the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield located on the Gila River Indian Reservation. Both sites were examined in detail with respect to availability and suitability of land, runways, buildings, utilities, etc. In addition, the proximity of the two sites to other air operations in the area was examined and analyzed in light of a proposed training operation. On the basis of the foregoing, it was determined that the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield was the most suitable site for the proposed aviation training center. The economic impact on the Indian Reservation site was then analyzed in detail from the standpoint of potential jobs and income for the community and for individuals residing on the Reservation. Section IV - Cost and Financing : In this section of the study, costs for the facilities of the proposed training center were estimated after developing a number of cost factors related to enrollment, space allocations, and unit costs. Equipment costs were also estimated, including the educational equipment, aircraft, ground support equipment, and synthetic trainers required. These estimates, along with the annual operating costs for the proposed training center, were all developed on the basis of 500, 1000, 1500, and 2000 student modules. Historical sources and the distribution of funds for educational institutions were examined, and a general plan for the financing of the proposed center was developed. In this general plan, the roles of the University, the aviation industry, and the federal government were outlined. Section V - Implementation Plan : In this section of the study, both short- and long-range plans were developed. The short-range plans included the immediate actions required, such as negotiation with the Tribal Council for long-term land leases and site development; the establishment of an industry-sponsored, non-profit educational organization; and the design and development programs for both the academic and flight training facilities of the proposed center. The long-range plans included an examination of the research and development activities necessary to integrate new educational technologies in the overall training center operations. Conclusions Some of the major conclusions derived from the studies summarized above are: 1. Revenue passenger miles for U.S. civil air carriers will increase from 76 billion passenger miles in 1965 to 315 billion passenger miles in 1980; cargo ton -miles from 3.1 to 38.1 billion ton-miles; and the aircraft fleet will grow from 2,125 to slightly over 3,000 aircraft. 2. The employment of civil air carrier aircraft cockpit crew members will increase from 22,972 in 1965 to 43,665 in 1980, with a total cumulative requirement of 35,906 new pilots for that period. 3. The civil air carrier mechanic work force will increase from 43,667 in 1965 to 80,224 in 1980, with a total cumulative requirement of 95,392 new mechanics for that period. 4. The general aviation fleet will increase from 104,000 to 315,000 units, with total flight hours increasing from 16.7 to 63 million flight hours per year by 1980. 5. Commercial pilot requirements in general aviation will increase from 48,760 in 1965 to 184,750 in 1980, with a total cumulative requirement for 182,075 pilots for that period. 6. The number of mechanics in general aviation will increase from 40,000 in 1965 to 120,000 in 1980, with a total cumulative requirement for 138,483 new mechanics during that period (approximately one-third would be certificated) , 7. Relatively little research has been executed which relates to pilot and mechanic qualitative curriculum design and its operational effectiveness. This is also true for other aviation curricula „ 8. A comprehensive, qualitative research program utilizing a variety of methodologies is greatly needed in a broad variety of important aspects of aviation education. 9. Instructional time in terms of clock hours, despite its limitations as a qualitative standard of proficiency, remains as the "core logic" of curriculum design in institutions involved in aviation education. 10. Better defined standards of competence and improved measurement techniques for achievement should be important objectives in upgrading and revising curricula. 11. The proposed pilot and maintenance technician curricula derived from this study represent qualitative improvement over existing curricula primarily in their assessment and provisions for meeting emerging needs. 12. The joint Arizona State University/General Learning Corporation research effort in vocational/technical curriculum development based on a computer-aided multi- media approach will provide great assistance and impetus to the application of technology to aviation education. 13. The location of an aviation training center on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield will result in significant benefits to the Indian population and will also provide job opportunities to the disadvantaged of the surrounding communities. 14. An inventory/ ana lysis of job skills on the Indian Reservation should be made and a training program under- taken to teach the required skills to qualified personnel for the jobs created by the establishment of a training center and other developments which are occurring on the Reservation. 15. The total cost for all facilities and equipment for the proposed training center will be approximately $7,000 per student and the annual cost of operation will be approximately $2,000 per student, plus the costs for flight training. 16. Because of the national implications and direct benefits to the aviation industry, the proposed aviation training center should be established and operated as a cooperative effort between the University, the aviation industry, and the federal government. 17. A single organization to represent all of the aviation industry's needs will be required for the cooperative effort cited above. A non-profit, membership corporation should be considered for the purpose. 18. The functions of the aviation training center could be most effectively performed by the University assuming the responsibility for conducting the academic portions of the training program and the industry-established organization conducting the flight training portions of the total program, with research and development being performed separately and jointly as appropriate. 19. The development of the site and facilities, procurement of equipment, and establishment of faculty and staff should be completed by 1 September 1968 for the flight center and by 1 September 1969 for the academic center. Re commend at ions Following are some of the major recommendations contained in the report: 1. Because of the difficulties experienced in assembling the data necessary for analyzing future personnel requirements, particularly in the general aviation segment, a data center should be established with continuous inputs provided by every segment of the industry. 2. The mathematical model developed for predicting air carrier pilot and mechanic requirements be further developed and utilized in connection with recommendation "1" above. The model could also be expanded for use in general aviation and with other modes of transportation. 3. Full consideration be given to the establishment and operation of an aviation training center, as described and discussed in this report. Such a center would help meet some of the quantitative requirements for the aviation industry, as well as some of the qualitative requirements discussed in other sections of the report. 4. Consideration be given to the implementation of the proposed pilot and aviation maintenance technician curricula as the nucleus of a future and broader aviation occupational group of curricula, and that such implementation be considered in the concept of the aviation training center, as explored in this study. 5. Concentrated efforts be made to initiate an organized aviation education research program to attack vital problems, some of which are: A. Pilot Task Analysis (Terminal Behavior Analysis) : A study, comparable in depth and duration, is needed to ascertain civilian pilot tasks in terms of what a pilot does and the sequence in which he does it; the relevance of tasks, one to another; the priority of learning sequence of tasks he performs; the frequency with which he performs tasks; and the degrees of manipulative skills required of specific tasks. B. A Comparative Cost Analysis of In-Depth Specialty Training for Pilots and Non-Pilots : Undoubtedly, individual carriers are conducting on-going cost analyses of their own training investments. A collective analysis concentrating on what is being taught; how it is being taught; measurement factors of productivity; temperament factors effect on training; aptitude identifications and correlations, if any; and other areas need to be determined. The products of such research could then be related to what can and should be done by pre-professional education and training institutions to reduce the on-the-job training investments of the carriers. 10 C. Instructor Personnel Education and Training for Aviation Curricula ; Research and training activities are needed, especially in the use of currently available media, modules, and methods, but, more importantly, in the potential applications of new educational technology to aeronautical technology curricula. 6. An aviation industry /education research and development center be established within the context of the proposed aviation training center to initiate, conduct or coordinate these studies as appropriate. Further, it is recommended that careful attention be given to plans for national dissemination and implementation of the anticipated research findings, curricula, instructional materials and systems. 7. Within the context of the proposed aviation training center, consideration be given to the establishment of a (civil aviation industry) education/ training documentation center, providing for automated retrieval and remote access provisions for the civil aviation industry. 8. That encouragement and assistance be provided the aviation industry in the establishment of a private, non-profit organization whose primary function will be to establish and operate the flight training portion of the proposed aviation center as a cooperative venture with the University. 9. A program be established, in cooperation with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, for the identification of skills, aptitudes, and attitudes of the total population on the Reservation, followed by a comprehensive pre-vocational, vocational/technical and social training program to prepare the Indians for the advantages to be derived from the training center and other area development programs. 10. An early conference be scheduled for representatives of the civil aviation industry, the federal government, and Arizona State University. The purpose of the conference will be to develop a plan for a joint cooperative effort to establish an aviation training center of national significance, as discussed throughout this report. 11 11. The division of responsibility for the establishment and operation of the aviation training center be for the industry-sponsored, non-profit education organization to establish and operate the flight training program, and the University establish and operate the academic program. The federal government should provide both organizations with financing and operations assistance. Epilogue It is obvious from the information presented in this report that a combination of powerful factors are at work in aviation today which, when assessed, dictate equally powerful and perhaps radically different approaches in aviation education. The primary factors referred to are, of course, the massive and accelerating growth in aviation and a corollary and equally dynamic technological progress. While there are a variety of lesser but important factors operating, the third major factor which gives rise to great national concern is the apparent absence of an accompanying dynamic response on the part of civil aviation education. Even a cursory examination reveals a "business as usual" and traditional education/training operation and little or no research and development in aviation curriculum structure or methods. A similar and somewhat more intensive examination will reveal a small but growing area of research and development of great promise in the application of newer educational technology in academic disciplines other than aviation education. Importantly, there appears not to have been evolved or deliberately developed in America a mechanism, structure or center capable of the research, demonstration, implementation and wide dissemination which could activate dynamic educational response to meet emerging civil aviation needs. The brief attempt at assessment given here is intended to be realistic as opposed to being simply negativistic. Certainly, it presupposes a great pride in America's monumental progress in aviation and commends those individual efforts in aviation education in attempting to service that progress to date. It must be universally accepted that the great growth in civil aviation of the immediate past is the product of numerous factors but, importantly, it is a product of the accelerating technology, which sets up a dynamic interaction with growth to, the end that the factors of growth and technology become mutually stimulating. It is equally apparent that even in this recent 12 rapid growth period, the aviation industry is on the threshold of what might be termed a "quantum leap" in growth. Unfortunately, no comparable prospect of a "quantum leap" in aviation education can be anticipated from the existing aviation education structure and its present capability. It was from this frame of reference that the concept of a civil air academy or civil aviation training center was conceived. The concept was developed as the prospective instrument of the aviation community, certainly not to be viewed as the "place" where all personnel trainee quantitative requirements would be met, but far more significantly as the "place" where innovative and creative aviation curricula and instructional materials systems are designed, tested and perfected for implementation nationally, in order to mobilize efficiently the existing and emerging aviation education agencies of the nation. In short, it is visualized as the vehicle required to generate an aviation education "quantum leap". To paraphrase a noted philosopher, "Nothing is so powerful as an idea or concept whose time has arrived". Informal explorations of the aviation training center concept and its "timeliness" with a variety of leaders in the aviation industry resulted in encouragement to the end that this Feasibility Study was undertaken. Having now been completed, it is sincerely hoped that the study findings will serve the leadership of the aviation community as a useful tool in meeting the challenges faced. 13 SECTION QUANTITATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR SKILLED AVIATION PERSONNEL General This section of the report presents the results of that portion of the feasibility study which was undertaken to determine present and future industry personnel requirements in certain skill categories. Because of time and resource limitations, the study specifically covered only the pilot and mechanic requirements. Other skill categories are discussed briefly in the report but were not studied in depth. The quantitative personnel requirements study results are presented in three parts. The first part deals only with the personnel requirements for the air carrier segment of the civil industry, the second part deals with the general aviation requirements, and the third part covers an over- all analysis of the supply and demand problem. The part of the study dealing with civil air carrier requirements developed forecasts for new hire pilots and mechanics from 1965 through 1980. The civil air carrier segment of the industry consists of certificated route air carriers (trunk, local service, territorial and international, helicopter, Hawaiian, Alaskan, and all-cargo carriers) , plus the commercial operators and supplemental carriers. This portion of the feasibility study served a dual purpose, in that it provided the data for the basic study and also for a doctoral dissertation for Professor D. Clay Whybark, one of the Arizona State University study team members. The general aviation requirements portion of the overall study developed needs for pilots and mechanics during the period 1965 through 1980. Two approaches were taken in this part of the overall study. One approach taken by Dr. Leslie Thomason and his associates of the Cessna Aircraft Company covered a very detailed analysis of the requirements for the period 1966-1975. The second approach, by Arizona State University study team members, was not as detailed and covered the period 1965-1980. General aviation operations include all civil aircraft operations, except those classified as air carrier operations. This segment of the aviation industry embraces a multitude of diverse and increasing uses of aircraft, ranging 1-1 from the transportation of personnel and cargo by business firms in corporate aircraft and by air taxi operators to aerial application (cropdusting) , power and pipeline patrol, and flying for pleasure. The third part of the quantitative requirements study is a projection of the supply of commercial pilots and a comparison to the demand. Two major sources of supply were investigated. The first of these was the military, since this has been the traditional source of commercial pilots in the United States. The second source investigated was the non- military production of pilots by the aviation industry. The assumptions which established certain limitations in each of the studies and the methodology used in performing the studies is presented, as appropriate, within each of the three parts. 1-2 CIVIL AIR CARRIER QUANTITATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR PILOTS AND MECHANICS Introduction This section of the feasibility study for an aviation training center at Arizona State University develops the forecasts of the required new hire pilots and mechanics from 1965 through 1980 for the civil air carrier segment of the aviation industry. This segment consists of the certificated route air carriers (trunk, local service, territorial and international, helicopter, Hawaiian, Alaskan, and all-cargo carriers), plus the commercial operators and supplemental carriers. Within the civil air carrier industry, the certificated route air carriers have done the most extensive reporting of statistics. Thus, throughout this report, the statistical processing was done with this data, unless explicitly stated otherwise. The underlying assumption is that the statistical relationships of the certificated carriers can be applied to the commercial operators and supplemental carriers for forecasting purposes, Even if this assumption does not hold for certain conditions, it will not make a major difference in the total picture because of the relative size of the two groups. The supplemental carriers and commercial operators combined operated only 229 aircraft (10.2% of the total industry), mostly of the smaller size, and employed approximately 1,000 pilots (less than 5% of the total) at year-end 1965. Throughout this report, any reference to pilots includes "pilots, copilots or other flight personnel", as reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and Civil Aeronautics Board. Included are captains, first and second officers, and flight engineers. Analogous terms would be flight deck personnel or cockpit force. For mechanics the definition also follows the reporting of the FAA and CAB. In this instance, the total is not restricted to licensed but includes all persons reported by the airlines as working at mechanics' jobs. It may seem as though the mechanics are not sufficiently covered in the report. This is not intended. The same basic process was used to forecast both pilot and mechanic requirements. When the methodology was applicable to both pilots and mechanics, it is most often presented in terms of pilots. In cases where results or conclusions were different for mechanics than for pilots, this difference is pointed out. 1-3 The method for developing the forecast involved several steps. The first step was the overall projection of pilot (mechanic) employment in any given year. In order to do this, the historical relationship between pilot employment and other variables (i.e., aircraft) was established, using statistics. Forecasts of these other variables were then developed and used to determine overall employment levels. Next, factors that might limit the forecasts were investigated to be certain that the results were feasible. Finally, the annual losses to the industry were determined to find the number of replacements needed each year. The sum of replacements and increases in employment levels defines the new hire requirements. As in all forecasts, some basic assumptions as to the political and economic climate must be set forth. In this study, it was assumed that there would be neither a greatly improved nor aggravated world political situation and that the United States will be involved in "brush war" conflicts throughout the period of study. The economy will continue to grow at its present rate and that there will be neither major reduction nor increase in disposable personal income growth. Assumptions regarding competition to air travel by other modes are discussed in detail in the section on possible limitations to growth. The following pages explain the basic procedure as outlined above. Then the findings and implications of the findings are presented. 1-4 Sources of Data Data have been collected from several organizations by interview or from their publications. Some important contributors of data are listed below: Air Line Pilots Association, International Air Transport Association of America American Airlines, Inc. Bonanza Air Lines, Inc. The Boeing Company Civil Aeronautics Board Douglas Aircraft Company, Inc. Federal Aviation Administration General Electric Company International Civil Aviation Organization Lockheed Aircraft Corporation North American Aviation, Inc. Trans World Airlines, Inc. United Air Lines, Inc. West Coast Airlines, Inc. The contributions of these organizations in time and material were invaluable in accomplishing this study. It must be stressed, however, that they are in no way responsible for the accuracy or conclusions of this report. In some cases, their data have been substantially modified to meet the requirements of this study. A summary of the historical statistics used in this effort is reported in Figures 1-1 and 1-2 for the total certificated route air carrier portion of the industry. Essentially, three source documents supplied the data found in those figures: the CAB Handbook 1 , the FAA Handbook 2 , and ATA's Facts and Figures -* . In some years, there are discrepancies between these documents, although the source document: for each is the CAB ' s Form 41. Most often this is explained by differences in the carriers which are included in the reporting agency's definition of the industry or whether unscheduled service is included. Form 41 is a detailed statistical reporting form that is filed periodically by all carriers in the industry. In some cases, this document was referred to for more detailed information or to clear up apparent differences in other reports. 1 Civil Aeronautics Board, Handbook of Airline Statistics , 1965 ed., Bureau of Accounts and Statistics, Washington, D. C, December 1965. 2 Federal Aviation Agency, FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation , 1965 ed . 3 Air Transport Association of America, Air Transport Facts & Figures, 1966 (official publication of the Air Transport Association of America, Washington. D. C.) Civil Aeronautics Board, Uniform System of Accounts and Reports for Air Carriers, 1 January 1957. 1-5 & O* O* s ff 1 s O* CT* s CT* CT* ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ UJ x 3 1 — Z 1- o UJ • o > O O UJ of — a < o ^ UJ i/> o UJ i/l o IT « o a — >oo-ocofiaj.oo x >* , r~coo x Of^tNJ>;j'rnr'ir-Ocj, mr-r^h-coor r vu^cDO*rcocucuh-o^'©**l'"<( I — ^cocgfNlO(MCg > »-ou">'0'*©»Mi'>*if> UJ i/l *— rt^KSCDO'^lftCOO'tNHH-OfflO^^OO or < H^f^HNiMtM^mi^^^^minr- i .*■ 0* m > G* ** cr UJ UJ — o a: z or ai < i/i o l/> i/i o£ yi of < or < UJ < OtOlK < O U. o a. u. u. t- < I- l < X < i/l UJ 1/1 O » LU UJ UJ 1/) 1/1 h_ uj 1/1 UJ 1/1 < -I UJ -I I (_) »- _J — UJ » I — I a: u. X O — t- z t- < z o t- ar luot- « uj t/i h- a. o Q *: • uj o _i uj on _j o < _l ol 3 o »- 3 < a o o a. uj o ►- UJ I o 1 lu o or 1/1 z z o Z UJ 3 3 > -J UJQ J or z < < _i > < ar Z uj O i/l i/l -I UJ 3 i a o UJ O I u l/> ^ UJ O V O vi a) uj I QJU z — < < U, UJ I >- -I nzn < < o a ar Mm < o co < o i Li. 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GT 4UIO UJ «* I- ►" VJ "s. :z UJ UJ _J » er Q£ ►- l/> t- tfl o z « O X X o a ► UJ UJ Z 3 u. UJ o UJ UJ (/> UI 1/1 + X O uj < JUJ JX o O ^. Q o » JMUJ O or o M X — x tc s- UJ u. Z u. -J I or u. X o - « Z O t- X o »- i/^ O uj a or UJOl->" a uj «s « t- x o Mi u)h- a a x Q <_> <_> O iT O * UJ o O _i UJVIJO < JVI3U t- »- »- 3 1 Q JUJU. o O&UJO < -> < ►- UNSCHE REVENUE NO UNSCH ALL CARG TOT OP PURE T AIRCR iMitHONmMna44o«4i*ir^ooj>no*r-'OmNCDoo Hf4rfi4NNNmi'l^'t^llMn««0^ iMinr4«s«^mBHe«4>n>iinoiMN -i^rgfMcgmm.rirv.of-p-oocf'Ocgm-oo'' o*4HHIMNIMK>m^l(Mn«'ON<0 9'HN 0) •H -J ar u. < a. < k o a O CD O t- ar or 3 «- OOOOOOOOOOO-0*rvJ0^OOe0 <-< *^oi»if-r-^oo*i mino>t-ir>jinir>ir>tricr fg rg rg " < « UJ ^ or ui O U =J i- a u> grm<^m>H(M>H4jo<^irtiro^>r>i-4rMmo< r >^(\j'4'eora(no > irtg}^'* 0>0-«Dcr(MiJ^ il^O4O0 , 'tn4 NNHNNNNIMNnCMflinnwnin m* 1-7 Data were gathered on a number of operating statistics, aircraft, and employment for the years 1945 through 1965. The year 1947 was chosen as the starting point for statistical processing because that was the year in which the wartime flying time maximum of 100 hours per month was reduced to 85 hours a month. For some statistics for the early years, it was necessary to refer to the reports of agencies preceding the Federal Aviation Administration and Civil Aeronautics Board. In cases where there was a conflict in the data, not easily explained, the CAB or FAA data were used. The historical operating statistics are not complete for all years as reported in the source documents. Estimates were made of some values to provide a complete data set. For the years 1949 and 1950, estimates were made of the unscheduled service totals for seat-miles, revenue passenger miles, and revenue passenger ton-miles. This was done by applying the ratio of scheduled to unscheduled service determined in the years for which data were available. The result was then checked by the ratio of the total of both services for the estimated statistics to other statistics during the same year. In the same manner, the unscheduled ton-mile statistics for the years 1945 and 1946 were estimated. To complete the past employment of pilots and mechanics for all years, estimates were made of the number employed by all-cargo carriers during the years 1951 to 1960. This was done by applying the ratio of pilots to various other statistics that were available for that period for the all-cargo carriers. This was checked against the result obtained by the ratio of all- cargo pilots to the total for preceding and succeeding years. For mechanics the estimate was made on the basis of the relationship between employed pilots and mechanics. It was necessary for some of the forecasts to make some estimate of the employment of pilots and mechanics in the .supplemental carriers and the commercial operators. This was done by estimating the average number of pilots per crew in these two categories and then the number of crews per aircraft. For the former, two pilots per crew were used and the latter was slightly greater than two crews per aircraft. These figures are averages for the wide extremes found in this group. By applying these factors to the number of aircraft owned by these two groups, a total of 1,000 pilots was estimated for employment at year-end 1965. The mechanic estimate is based on the relationship between mechanics and pilots. That ratio has been very constant at approximately two mechanics per pilot for several years. Thus, the estimated number of mechanics employed by the commercial operators and supplemental carriers was 2,000. -'Special survey questionnaire sent to commercial operators and supplemental carriers. 1-8 Historical Relationships The initial phase of the research was directed toward determining whether or not there had been a consistent relationship between employment levels and other variables over a twenty-year period. The variables to be studied were chosen on the basis of their availability historically, their use within the industry, and whether or not there were forecasts for them, or if they could be derived from existing forecasts. To quantify the relationships of the variables and to give confidence to their use in forecasting levels of employment, statistical processing of the data was necessary. In particular, linear correlation and regression analysis were used. Prior to doing the statistical work, however, the data were plotted to give insights into relationships that might go undiscovered in processing. Also, the plots were made to test the assumptions that underlie the statistical processing. For example, the regression equations assume a linear relationship between the variables. The regression and correlation analysis not only gave the relationship between the variables but some indication as to the strength of the relationship as well. A plot of revenue passenger miles and aircraft against pilot employment is shown in Figure 1-3.' The relationship between pilot employment and total aircraft is essentially linear, and the linear regression line is shown in the plot. The line for revenue passenger miles is definitely not linear. This is characteristic of the plots for the other operating statistics. All had essentially the same shape, whether it was a capacity measure such as seat- miles or ton-miles or a revenue measure like revenue ton-miles. The load factors^ have been constant over the past, which explains why the relationship was the same for either measure. Since traffic has been growing at a compounded rate, a logarithmic transformation of these variables was tried to see if it would be essentially linear with pilots. A square root trans- formation was also tried. The results of these transformations are plotted in Figure 1-4. Both of these transformations yield essentially linear relationships. The resultant linear regression equations are shown as well in the plot. "Several good references exist on correlation analysis. A popular one for business problems is: Ezekiel, M. , and Fox, K. A., Methods of Correlation and Regression Analysis, Linear and Curvilinear (3rd ed., New York: John Wiley, 1959) . 'Because the relationship between mechanics and pilots has been constant over the years, the same results are obtained for a comparison of mechanics and these variables. o The ratio of persons to seats on a given flight. For the industry as a whole, this has been relatively constant, averaging about 50% for all flights. 1-9 w O W rjuauiAo"[dui3 30"[Tc[ 1-10 S3 > f^ Pi H 3 Pi p2 h h b o fn Pi o o O H 1-1 H Pi W •H CO CU oi o CO H u 3 Ml -H Pn o o o m o o o o o o o m o o o o o o m ^usmAoxduia ^oxTd 1-11 The first set of statistical relationships developed were those of the single linear correlation coefficients between various operating statistics, aircraft (also broken down by type) , and the transformed variables versus pilots (mechanics) . The intent of this effort was to determine if there was a sufficiently strong relationship between any single variable and pilots to provide a basis for forecasting pilot employment. A stepwise linear regression computer program was used for this data reduction." The results of these runs are shown in Figures 1-5 and 1-6. Three sets of data are shown for the pilots. They represent the runs for years 1945-1965, 1947-1965, and 1951-1965. Since the correlation coefficients are uniformly higher for the run from 1947-1965, it is further evidence that those are the years upon which the forecasting equation should be based. The results for mechanics are shown only for 1947- 1951 based on the same arguments. The results of these runs show that the transformations did improve the statistical relationship between the operating statistics and employment. The logarithmic transformation is generally better than the square root trans- formation based on the higher correlation coefficients. The high level of correlation coefficients for these transformed statistics tends to support a percentage productivity change for pilots which has been suggested by some authors. 10 The pilot requirements are more closely defined by the revenue operating statistics than the capacity operating statistics. This is evidenced by the higher correlation coefficients for the logarithmic transformation of revenue statistics than for those of capacity statistics. This is partly explained by the fact that newer and/or higher capacity aircraft are usually introduced on the high density, popular flights of an airline. The aircraft previously used on these flights are assigned the next dense route and so on throughout the system. Thus, the system capacity tends to increase in steps. The revenue traffic, however, will tend to build up at a constant rate, requiring more of the same type of aircraft or introduction of a higher capacity aircraft The requirement for additional pilots arises from the additional aircraft rather than replacement of aircraft. Also, there may be more pilot scheduling difficulties as frequencies increase to accommodate traffic growth, which could require more pilots as well. "The program was BMD 02R of the Biomedical Medical Department at UCLA. It is reported in: W. J. Dixon (ed.), BMD Biomedical Programs , Health Sciences Computing Facility, University of California, Los Angeles, January 1964. For example, see: Kahn, Mark L. , Airline Flight Crews: Adjustment to Technological Change in a Regulated Growth Industry , Reprint Series No. 40, The Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations, The University of Michigan - Wayne State University. ^ This does not work perfectly, of course, because of the need to match stage lengths with aircraft design and the use of old and new aircraft together on a run to support traffic increases. 1-12 SINGLE LINEAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS—PILOT EMPLOYMENT RELATED TO VARIOUS OPERATING STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Variable Aircraft Total Piston Pure jet Turboprop Helicopter Ton-miles capacity (000) Untransf ormed Natural logarithm Square root Revenue ton-miles (000) Untransf ormed Natural logarithm Square root Revenue passenger-miles (billions) Untransf ormed Natural logarithm Square root Revenue cargo ton-miles (000) Untransf ormed Natural logarithm Square root 1945-1965 1947-1965 1951-1965 .946 .969 .939 .414 .195 -.260 .713 .714 .750 .851 .850 .865 .871 .855 .692 .908 .896 .887 .967 .976 .951 .958 .948 .925 .933 .924 .909 .972 .982 .963 .972 .966 .943 .945 .936 .921 .975 .984 .966 .978 .972 .950 .897 .885 .876 .953 .966 .949 .951 .942 .919 Figure 1-5 1-13 SINGLE LINEAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS— MECHANIC EMPLOYMENT RELATED TO VARIOUS OPERATING STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Variable 1947-1965 Aircraft Total .908 . Piston .035 * Pure jet .803 Turboprop -» " .865 Helicopter .766 Ton-miles capacity (000) Untransformed .936 Natural logarithm .972 Square root .966 Revenue ton-miles (000) Untransformed .954 Natural logarithm .973 Square root .976 Revenue passenger-miles (billions) Untransformed .962 Natural logarithm .974 Square root .979 Revenue cargo ton-miles (000) Untransformed .925 Natural logarithm .959 Square root .959 Figure 1-6 1-14 Some surprise may be occasioned by the generally high levels of correlation coefficients for almost all variables. For example, helicopters have a correlation coefficient of .855 with pilot employment. This is not unexpected, however, when both the pilot force and the number of helicopters have been increasing over time. Therefore, any of the statistics that are increasing over this time period show a generally high correlation coefficient with employment levels. The discrimination between the variables must be made on the basis of their usefulness in predicting, as well as differences in their correlation coefficients. As an illustration of this point, piston aircraft have a very low correlation coefficient with pilots. During this time period, the number of piston aircraft first increased and then decreased as jet aircraft were introduced into service. Pilot employment generally increased over the period. There are some variables with high enough single correlation coefficients that they could be considered for use in projecting employment levels without additional processing. One in particular is the logarithmic transformation of revenue passenger miles with a correlation coefficient of .984 for pilot employment. Since this has been historically one of the important planning gauges in the industry, it is gratifying to see such high correlation coefficients. Logically, one would expect the relationship between aircraft and pilots to be a strong one. This is the case, although the correlation coefficient is less than that for transformed revenue passenger miles. Many of the other relationships in Figure 1-5 are simply not strong enough or there is not a good, logical basis for considering them for predicting employment levels. A refinement of the statistical processing was based on logical considerations of those variables for which forecasts could be obtained and which had high single correlation coefficients. For example, it seemed that air freight would have an impact on employment apart from passenger traffic measures and should be combined with the passenger traffic to get total results. In addition, it appeared that there were differences in the effect of different types of aircraft on the total employment level and that these differences should be explored. In order to investigate these factors and to improve the relationships for forecasting purposes, multiple linear regression and correlation analysis were used. The results of the multiple correlation analysis are shown in Figures 1-7 and 1-8. In general, the multiple correlation coefficients are higher than the single correlation coefficients. Adding the revenue cargo data to the revenue passenger data did, for example, improve the correlation with pilot employment over either alone, although only slightly (.984 compared to .985). As a 12 It is interesting to note that the CAB does not report this statistic for all services despite its widespread use within the industry. They publish instead revenue passenger ton-miles. This has the advantage of being directly comparable to the cargo values, which are also reported as ton-mile figures. For revenue passenger miles for all services, one must turn to the FAA Handbook. 1-15 MULTIPLE LINEAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS—PILOT EMPLOYMENT RELATED TO VARIOUS OPEPATING STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Variables 1947-1965 Aircraft, Case 1 .982 Var . 1) Pure jet + turboprop Var . 2) Piston + helicopter Aircraft, Case 2 Var. 1) Pure jet .983 Var. 2) Piston 4- helicopter + turboprop Revenue passenger miles and cargo ton-miles .985 Case 1 — natural logarithm transformation Var. 1) Revenue passenger-miles (billions) Var. 2) Revenue cargo ton-miles (000) Revenue passenger-miles and cargo ton-miles .979 Case 2 — square root transformation Var. 1) Revenue passenger-miles (billions) Var. 2) Revenue cargo ton-miles (000) Figure 1-7 1-16 MULTIPLE LINEAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS—MECHANIC EMPLOYMENT RELATED TO VARIOUS OPERATING STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Variables 1947-1965 Aircraft, Case 1 .958 Var. 1) Pure jet + turboprop Var. 2) Piston + helicopter Aircraft, Case 2 .964 Var. 1) Pure jet Var. 2) Piston + turboprop + helicopter Revenue passenger-miles and cargo ton-miles .959* Natural logarithm transformation Var. 1) Revenue passenger-miles (billions) Var. 2) Revenue cargo ton-miles (000) *This is for the revenue passenger-miles variable alone. No improvement in correlation coefficient was gained by introducing the revenue cargo ton-miles variable. Figure 1-8 1-17 further check on the usefulness of the square root transformation of the operating statistics, a multiple correlation analysis was run of this transformation of the revenue passenger and cargo data. In this instance, as well, the multiple relationship is stronger than that for revenue passenger miles alone. However, the overall result is lower for this transformation of the variables than for the logarithmic transformation. Based on this result, no further work was done with the square root transformations. Substantial increases in the correlation coefficients are obtained by breaking the aircraft down into types (.969 compared to .983). This was expected because of the low single correlation coefficient of the piston aircraft discussed previously. Two combinations were tried: the combination of pure jet aircraft in one group and all other aircraft (propeller aircraft) in the second, and the combination of pure jet and turboprop (jet powered) in one group and piston and helicopter (piston) in the second. The results for each were similar, and both yielded improvements over unsegmented aircraft alone. A slightly higher correlation coefficient is shown for the run which had pure jets in one group and propeller aircraft in the other. The multiple correlation coefficient for the partition of the aircraft fleet is nearly the same as that for the revenue passenger and cargo result (.983 and .985, respectively) . Because of the closeness of the correlation coefficients and the logical appeal of the relationship between aircraft and pilot or mechanic employment, the multiple regression equations associated with the pure jet and propeller aircraft multiple correlation analysis were used as the predicting equations for this study. These equations and the regression equations for the other single and multiple regression runs are given in Figures 1-9 and I- 10. To further support the logic of using these equations for projecting overall employment, another test of these relationships was developed. A computer program was written to test projections of actual past employment. The test involved the computation of projected pilot (mechanic) employment for past years, using actual numbers of aircraft. This result was then compared to the actual employment level and printed out on a year-by-year basis. These runs (Figures 1-11 and 1-12) show the total number of pilots in error over the period and the average absolute value of the percentage error for the entire period. The results show an improvement in going from the single to multiple regression equations for both pilots and mechanics by the decrease in average percentage error. The average absolute error was slightly greater than 57o for mechanics and slightly less than 5% for pilots, using the multiple regression equations. The problem of projecting overall employment levels has now been transformed into that of finding an acceptable forecast of aircraft by types over the period under study. Many such forecasts exist but all depend on projections of revenue passenger miles and cargo ton-miles. Different assumptions 1-18 PILOT EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION EQUATIONS— SINGLE AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Aircraft Total aircraft fleet (single regression) Pilots = (total aircraft x 12.929) - 5585.03 Segmented aircraft fleet (multiple regression) Pilots = (total pure jet x 15.289) + (total propeller x 11.269) - 3555.827 Pilots = ((piston + helicopter) x 10.940) - 3161.398 + ((pure jet + turboprop) x 13.760) Revenue passenger-miles and cargo ton-miles Revenue passenger-miles (single regression) Pilots = (Ln(revenue passenger-miles) x 6136.875) - 4979.855 Revenue passenger-miles and cargo ton-miles (multiple regression) Pilots = (Ln(revenue passenger-miles) x 7006.375) + 2923.557 - (Ln(revenue cargo ton-miles) x 790.837) Figure 1-9 1-19 MECHANIC EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION EQUATIONS— SINGLE AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS OF STATISTICS OF THE CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS Aircraft Total aircraft fleet (single regression) Mechanics - (total aircraft x 17.595) + 2020.51 Segmented aircraft fleet (multiple regression) Mechanics = (total pure jet x 24.27) + 7759.71 + (total propeller x 12.90) Mechanics = ((piston + helicopter) x 11.96) + 8880.62 + ((pure jet + turboprop) x 19.95) Revenue passenger-miles and cargo ton-miles Revenue passenger-miles (single regression) Mechanics = (Ln(revenue passenger-miles) x 8815.91) + 1356.52 Figure I - 10 1-20 I I -4 *+ I I lit I I <6 *4 O (M >0 i-4 I -4 h-'O**'-4rr» II -4| w* I !-• I •-« I I I ^- r-o>»'©43f-p-o»rgo -«-4r\i o-4 < -io-4-om<*><\i4ji\i o ill Of 3 of o O z kvio m OC Ul 111 CL IU3k Ul _l < UL 1- «t O u. l/> > ~ •— < u. 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Z 3 UI Z 3 UI — _l X — -J X o o Of «/» Of Offl< 004 Of < I Of < X or or UJ UJ < UJ UJ < IS -J O _l _l < 3 _l< 3 < of X « or x i- ui or 1- UI or o > o o > o i- < u. 1- < U- UI UJ UI Ul UI UI XXX XXX CD i-l 3 •H pM ui co»(Mirm4)u)H40f4r-HiKiMnos H(onHIN W CO i-J PSOH -l W CO U < o a en • W P CO CO o • CO M P < PCS > w ~ S3 •H *x> to r-x o a E o u c x: CO 4-J o ^D u •H r-« o u (25 OJ T) QJ vO A rx. M a j Pn to crj H OC 3 o o CJ r-x H rd vO 00 CO CO CO 00 LO <-\ co m cm 01 ,0 rx COOH CO ' CO a^ H r-» «tf kO < rH CN o on oo r** r*s m vo oo o cm CM CM CM CO CO rx o m co CN u m [fl vO QJ OX >H rH ^o ix oo ctn o nO vD vD nD tx ON CT\ o |x rx rx |x CO ox ox ox o> CTi rH rH rH rH rH m oo cr> 1-28 £1 CO •H "cu \. d -h > •H CO cu to o o PQ Ph cu 4-1 •H co V. & X e N. O o Forecast CO 3 4J O <; 1 ™ m CXv O LT| M 0) VO o o m o o o o CO o o CM (suot"[TT9) S3 TTW J:a§uassB,j snuaAa-g 1-29 to determine cargo volume in the future. Most forecasts in this area involve estimates as to what the cargo growth rates will be in the future. The Boeing Company forecasted growth rates of 18.5% for 1965 through 1970, 25.5% for the succeeding five years, and 15% for the years between 1975 and 1980. ° These rates were based upon the ability of air cargo to penetrate existing cargo movement, as well as expand markets for certain commodities. In order to accomplish this, they admit the need for favorable regulatory decisions and increased ability to handle shipments at major cargo hubs. The Douglas forecasts 'were divided into a basic forecast level which assumed no major effort to expand air cargo services and a high forecast level which was based upon an industry-wide air cargo marketing effort. The growth rates for their basic forecasts were 17% per year to 1970 and 23% per year through 1978, with declining growth rates from there on. The high level forecast was based upon a 25% per year growth rate initially which declined to 15% per year by 1980. These forecasts both were based upon extrapolations of past trends. The Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, Georgia Division, has developed a more detailed approach for forecasting the cargo requirements. ° They divided the cargo categories into the reported categories of scheduled freight, mail, express, and non-scheduled freight. They further segmented air freight carriage between cargo aircraft (including quick-change aircraft), bellyhold, and jumbo aircraft. They further divided their study into the major market areas of the world. With these breakdowns, they developed past trends between promotion and marketing effort and cargo carried, as well as developing rate elasticities for air cargo. The result of these efforts was a forecast for various categories of cargo in different modes of carriage for different areas of the world. Their total forecast is very close to the Boeing forecast. Lockheed's average growth rate for freight is 16.7%, although it is somewhat higher in 1965 and tapers off toward the end of the period. The General Electric Company also forecast revenue cargo ton-miles. They forecast a growth rate of approximately 167 per year and validated this by comparing it with other industry forecasts. Their actual growth rate per year varied from about 25% in 1965 to about 14% in 1980. Therefore, their annual values were slightly different from the other forecasts. The fact that it is difficult to get better forecasts on revenue cargo ton- miles is not too disappointing. It is the fastest growing segment of the industry at present. However, even these high growth rates, applied over the ^" Boeing Traffic Forecast , op . cit 27 Measuring the 70' s , op. cit . 98 ^°Eckard, E. W. , Free World Air Cargo Forecast (Marietta, Ga. : Commercial Marketing Research Department, Lockheed-Georgia Company, CMRS 59, August 1966) OQ > ^ Commercial Market Profile , op. cit. 1-30 period from 1965 to 1980, do not make it a major element in the industry by 1980. The forecast figure for U.S. domestic air cargo in 1980 is still less than 1% of the forecast total common carrier intercity ton-miles. " This total, for revenue cargo ton-miles, represents less than 10% of the total forecast revenue ton-miles carried by air in 1980. The forecast revenue cargo ton- miles used in this study are shown in Figures 1-15 and 1-16. One approach to determining overall aircraft requirements was used for most of the forecasts reviewed. It consisted of taking a revenue passenger mile forecast and revenue cargo ton-mile forecast and computing the number of airplanes required to carry that traffic. The process starts with estimates of load factors, productivity, ground time, speed, capacity, stage lengths, aircraft types, and schedules. These, in turn, are used to compute aircraft utilization and productivity, which then converts to numbers of aircraft required to support the forecasts. The disposition of the current fleet must be accounted for, so estimates were made of aircraft losses and replacement. Differences between forecasts could usually be attributed to differences in the assumptions made for these various parameters, rather than differences in the basic revenue passenger mile or cargo forecasts. This is supported by the general agreement between the RPM forecasts discussed in this study. An approach that differs slightly from that outlined above was used by the FAA for their aircraft projection.-'-'- The method was applied to cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft separately. They used current aircraft purchase commitments and estimates of additional aircraft orders to compute the new aircraft additions to the fleet. Next, they developed replacement schedules for turboprop and piston aircraft to get net aircraft inventories. Essentially, they retired the piston aircraft completely by 1977. The few that still would be flying would be with the supplemental airlines and commercial operators. They used no retirement of current jet aircraft until after 1977. To validate their forecast, the seat-mile and cargo capacity of the forecast fleet size was determined. This was adjusted by the load factor for comparison with their revenue passenger mile forecast. In this sense, the FAA worked the problem backwards from the procedure used by the other groups. Using this technique, they forecast a greater overall fleet size than any of the others. This was consistent with their high RPM forecast. in JU Eckard, op. cit. -^ Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977 , op. cit. , p. 5 1-31 REVENUE CARGO TON-MILE FORECAST (BILLIONS) U.S. CIVIL AIR CARRIER— ALL SERVICES Date Revenue Cargo Ton-Miles 1965 3.1 1966 3.6 1967 4.2 1968 5.1 1969 6.0 1970 7.0 1971 8.8 1972 10.2 1973 12.3 1974 14.6 1975 16.9 1976 19.5 1977 22.7 1978 27.0 1979 32.0 1980 38.1 Figure 1-15 1-32 CO O H H CJ CO W pi w H Pi Pi Ph Pi w o H Pi H H > O H O O Pi U CO > w pi ______ ^-— 4-J CO CO O CD M r-1 :x ■V. •H o CTi m m o in m o m o o o (suotxiTfl) saxTW- u °I oSaeo anuaAa^ 1-33 oo The General Electric forecast methodology was the most detailed of those reviewed. They used their revenue passenger mile forecast and cargo ton- mile forecast to derive an aircraft forecast. They first divided the cargo and passenger forecasts into forecasts by stage lengths and then matched these stage length requirements with existing and future aircraft. In order to accomplish this, they developed a generalized computer program which determined the aircraft required for each of the stage-length forecasts. They forecast the Free World total, so an adjustment was made which reduced their forecast to that of the total U.S. civil air carrier group. This adjustment was made in two steps. First, the ratio of the revenue passenger miles carried by the Free World to the U.S. civil air carrier traffic was applied. The second step was to equate the number of aircraft in the U.S. civil air carrier fleet derived for 1965 to the actual fleet size in 1965. The net result was a forecast of a declining number of aircraft until the early 1970 's. Beyond that time the forecast was for increasing numbers of aircraft through 1980. A major portion of the early decline in the total fleet was occasioned by the rapid replacement of piston aircraft (which were forecast completely phased out by 1974) by short- and medium-range jet aircraft and smaller turboprop aircraft. General Electric also explicitly took into account existing jet retirement by using an estimate of economic obsolescence of the aircraft. Their retirements from the current fleet total 150 aircraft by 1975 and 700 aircraft by 1980. These retirement rates were used to adjust the other forecasts when retirement was not explicitly taken into account. The major part of these retirements were occasioned by the introduction of new aircraft types that General Electric believes will be introduced in the future. The General Electric forecast is the lowest of those reviewed. 33 The Boeing Company forecast was comprised of separate forecasts for the world jet and propeller fleets, including those airplanes required for cargo. They showed a declining propeller fleet, although, since their figures included turboprop aircraft, they still showed 500 active propeller aircraft in 1980. Boeing used a straight fifteen-year life for jet aircraft to determine retirement and a 1% per year loss rate for all other reasons. The same adjustments were made to Boeing's world forecast as to General Electric's in order to get the U.S. portion. 34 The correction factor is somewhat greater than the ratio of the revenue passenger miles flown by the U.S. civil air carriers to those flown by the total Free World, as also found in the discussion of the General Electric forecast. This arises because, in general, the U.S. fleet is more modern and productive than that for the remainder of the Free World. Boeing's forecast fleet size was slightly less than that of the FAA. 32 Commercial Market Profile , op. cit . , p. 25. 33 Boeing Traffic Forecast , op. cit. It is interesting to note that General Electric forecasts a total of 225 Boeing 747 's in 1975, with 100 for passengers and 125 for cargo. Boeing, on the other hand, forecasts 408, with 101 for cargo and 307 for passengers. 1-34 Douglas chose to forecast cumulative jet aircraft deliveries rather than aircraft fleet size.-" In order to do this, they first developed the "seat- mile gap" that would exist between on-order aircraft capacity and that required by their RPM forecast. This was done for long-, medium-, and short- stage lengths. They then proceeded to fill this seat-mile gap with existing and contemplated aircraft types for each of the stage lengths. The on-order, plus their additions, were then turned into a cumulative aircraft delivery schedule for the Free World. To adjust this to the total civil air carrier fleet, the Boeing propeller fleet and existing jet fleet were added and the General Electric retirement figures were subtracted. The net result is a forecast that is slightly lower than that of Boeing. The Lockheed Company forecasts were derived from their revenue passenger mile and cargo ton-mile forecasts for various stage lengths for the eleven trunk carriers and Pan American, only.-*" Their result was adjusted on the basis of the historical relationship between the fleet for that group of carriers and the total civil air carrier fleet size. The resultant forecast is somewhat less than Douglas' but greater than General Electric' s. Lockheed assumed that a rapid replacement of currently operating equipment will take place in the 1970 's; thus, they forecast a declining fleet size after that period. All of the forecasts described included the Concorde, the U.S. supersonic transport, and the Boeing 747. In those forecasts where specific aircraft types were identified, the introduction of new aircraft types generally included another short-range jet type, stretched versions of the present short-range jets, and some form of airbus. The question of whether or not the supersonic transport will fly over land affects the forecasts to some extent because of its productivity but not greatly during the time period covered. The forecasts fall into two broad categories: (1) those with constantly increasing fleet size (Boeing, Douglas, and FAA) , and (2) those which have a decreasing fleet size during some time period (General Electric and Lockheed) . They are summarized in Figures 1-17 and 1-18. To determine what forecast to use for this study, a more detailed investigation of the requirements for the latter part of the 1960 's was made. The determination of the fleet size for the latter part of the 1960 's was approached by taking the "on-order" aircraft delivery schedule as of year- end 1965 and adding to that the current fleet minus the retiring propeller aircraft. This placed a floor under the forecasts and gave a minimum expected fleet size for any given year. In the past, committed aircraft orders for future years have been less than the actual orders filled during that year. ' This has been true even during years when deliveries of aircraft -*-* Boeing Traffic Forecast , op. cit. J Personal correspondence with J. A. Schwartz, Market Engineer, Lockheed- California Company, Burbank, California. 37 The data for this analysis was taken from Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977 , op. cit. The extent to which the "minimum fleet levels", as computed, varies from actual is illustrated by the year 1966. At year end, there were 2,272 aircraft in the fleet compared to a forecast minimum of 2,172. 1-35 AIRCRAFT FORECASTS— U.S. CIVIL AIR CARRIER Date Boeing Douglas FAA G.E, Lockheed Minimum Fleet Size Prop 1965 2125 2125 2125 2125 2125 2125 1400 1966 2265 2272 2337 2145 2150 2172 1293 1967 2390 2390 2366 2185 2210 2207 1000 1968 2505 2505 2400 2180 2290 2267 747 1969 2610 2610 2540 2095 2390 2276 683 1970 2695 2695 2700 1970 2480 675 1971 2780 2770 2875 1900 2565 1972 2850 2840 3000 1895 2650 1973 2940 2900 1935 2730 1974 3005 2960 2000 2785 1975 3090 3020 2085 2800 681 634 610 600 585 1976 3180 3070 1977 3250 3115 1978 3330 3155 1979 3410 3195 1980 3485 3220 3500 2155 2790 2230 2770 2315 2750 2390 2730 2470 2715 577 560 540 520 500 Figure 1-17 1-36 u~> TZ, c/3 o Pi l-l w H l-H O Pi w Pi "-3 o d Pi PM pi H H < W w H-l H-l M Ph > H H U 2 cn U • Pi o 00 0) u 3 00 •H P-H CO sauBxdaxy 1-37 have been delayed. The minimum fleet size thus derived was greater than the General Electric forecast for all years and greater than the Lockheed aircraft forecast for the early years. Because of this, it was felt that one of the constantly increasing forecasts would be more likely during the latter part of the 1960's. Since the introduction of the Boeing 747 is planned for 1969 and the supersonic transport is expected in the mid-1970's, it is likely that the growth rate of the fleet would be declining during that period, as in the Douglas forecast. For these reasons, the Douglas forecast was selected as the basis for projecting new hire requirements. This forecast shows a continually increasing number of aircraft in the fleet through 1980. This raises the question of whether or not it will be possible to continue to increase fleet size over this period. A corollary question is whether or not the increases in traffic growth are maintainable. Possible limitations to these forecasts do exist and were investigated. The results of these investigations follow. Possible Limitations on Future Growth One area of possible limitations on future growth in aircraft traffic is that of air traffic control. The air traffic controller's job is one requiring tremendous amounts of concentration, for he is expected to keep track of all aircraft that are flying in the airspace controlled from his center which are assigned to him at any point in time. The job becomes increasingly difficult as the numbers of aircraft in any area increase. This is especially true on the critical parts of a given flight, primarily when the aircraft is preparing for takeoff or landing. Thus, the areas of greatest congestion (i.e., New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) are those with the greatest workload and density of traffic. There is serious debate about how adequately the current system handles the traffic under marginal conditions. ° Much of this discussion centers on what changes are necessary to handle the traffic until new display equipment can be tested and installed. " The problem is one of maintaining a pace with the air traffic growth without overtaxing the system or the ability of the FAA to support new systems. A factor which complicates this is that the loads are extremely uneven from area to area. It was pointed out above that the areas of highest traffic * 8 Beck, Richard H. , "1200 RVR— Cleared to Land", The Airline Pilot, August 1966, p. 9 39 Stein, Kenne Week and Space Technology , 26 September 1966, p. 119 39 Stein, Kenneth J., "ATC Staff Training with Alpha-Numerics", Aviation 1-38 concentration are the areas of greatest concern. The areas with lower traffic volumes have sufficiently lighter loads to cause great unevenness in the total network. One trend that is partially offsetting this is the increase in local service traffic and cities served. 40 In all likelihood, this trend will continue as new short-range aircraft, such as STOL (Short Takeoff and Landing) and VTOL (Verticle Takeoff and Landing) , are perfected and introduced in commercial service. Even proposed systems like those which would locate traffic hub airports, for long stage- length departures, in relatively unpopulated areas require moving the passengers out of the metropolitan areas to these hubs. Thus, there would still be a high degree of congestion in the densely populated areas. For the industry as a whole, it appears that the air traffic control system will maintain a pace with reasonable growth rates. Only for extremely high rates of growth (i.e., Boeing's "possible" rate) would there be any problem of saturation and limitations of traffic growth. If these levels were to materialize, then the total number of required pilots would be reduced. This possibility has been taken into account, in that potential limitations on the growth can be translated into new hire requirements reductions by reducing forecasts or changing the relationship between factors. Another form of congestion that could place a limitation on traffic growth is that of ground handling. Ground handling, as used here, refers both to the handling of the aircraft on the ground, which affects turnaround times, and that connected with the passenger, his luggage and the freight to be moved by the aircraft. This is an area that needs much attention if it is not to choke off the time savings once the aircraft is airborne. By the time of the introduction of the Boeing 747, the systems must be capable of handling up to 500 people per flight. If major breakthroughs in techniques are not developed and implemented prior to this time, it will have severe impacts on the growth of air travel. It simply will not be a net saving of time to go by air if it takes hours to get in and out of the aircraft and to get luggage afterward. Some advances are being made in this regard concerning the handling of luggage. **■ Major advances have been made in handling freight by computerized sorting and storage systems and by containerization.^2 The smaller airports are no longer immune to the implications of this potential bottleneck. In the past, it has been a relatively simple matter The growth rate in revenue passenger miles for the trunk lines in 1963-65 were 14.4, 14.8, and 17.67,, while those of the local service carriers were 16.3, 20.1, and 16.87o for the same period. Source: CAB Handbook , op. cit . Coburn, R. F., "Air Transport Association of America Weighs Proposal to Back High-Speed Baggage System", Aviation Week and Space Technology , 23 January 1967, p. 40. 4"2"p an Am Cargo Terminal Heavily Automated, Mechanized", Aviation Week and Space Technology , 22 May 1967, p. 37. 1-39 at the smaller fields because of the low frequency of service and the relatively small number of passengers. With the development of newer short-range aircraft and the growth of local service traffic, this very smallness tends to be a detriment to improvements in ground handling. In this area, major changes are necessary to support even the composite growth forecast. For the purposes of this study, the assumption has been made that the improvements will be made in time to support the projected passenger traffic levels. In the case of cargo, it has been in large part the development of these newer handling systems that led to the projections of such rapid growth. A question related to that of passenger and freight congestion in the terminal is that of passenger congestion outside the terminal. This issue involves questions regarding the construction of new airports and expanding old ones. It also involves questions of parking and access. Considerable work is going on with regard to each prong of this problem. Efforts are being made to improve flows in existing facilities, and new facilities are being planned. 4-3 it looks as though improvements will come at a rate sufficient to support the forecast traffic levels. The question of financing the new aircraft required to support the growth has occasionally been raised. ^ Should this prove a difficulty it could limit growth. However, if there is increasing traffic, then there would be a large cash flow and a sufficient internal generation of funds for capital investment. The lead time on commitment is long for new aircraft types, however, and the financing must be reasonably assured before the commitments can be given. Thus, it becomes important to forecast as accurately as possible. Douglas explored this question in their forecast of RPM and concluded that financing would not limit growth in the United States. ^ For this study, their conclusion is accepted. Another possible limitation on air traffic growth arises due to the competitive potential of a high-speed ground transport system. Research has been conducted on possible systems for installation in the California and Northeast corridors. The possibility of a major shift of intercity passengers from the airlines to such a system is not in question. The installation of a high-speed rail transportation system between Tokyo and Osaka resulted in a 38% decline in traffic for Japan Airlines on that run.^ 6 ^3Air Transport Association of America, Air Transport Facts and Figures, 1967 , official publication of the Air Transport Association of America, 31 January 1967. 4^ The Issues and Challenges of Air Transportation II: The Impact of New Technology , Proceedings of a symposium sponsored by Connecticut General Life Insurance Company, Hartford, Conn., 15-17 May 1963. Pleasuring the 70' s , op. cit. They found problems in other parts of the world , however . ^ 6 Ross, Howard R. , "High-Speed Intercity Ground Transport in 1980", Stanford Research Institute Journal , XII (November 1966), p. 10. 1-40 The carriers most likely to be hardest hit by this kind of competition would be the local service carriers who normally cover these shorter stage lengths. Some of the systems under contemplation, however, are for long enough stage lengths that some of the trunk carriers would also be affected. The possibilities of such systems limiting the growth of air traffic in the period to 1980 are slight. The conclusion of a Federal Aviation Agency supported study by Stanford Research Institute was "that it appeared unlikely that any HSGT (high-speed ground transportation) system would be operating in the California corridor by 1980". ^' Thus, this possibility is not considered limiting in this study. In the realm of international travel, tourist facilities, international documentation and customs procedures pdse possible limitations on traffic growth. Complaints have been registered from time to time that the increasing tide of tourism has indeed strained the hotel facilities in some parts of the world. This may become an even greater consideration as the negotiations for routes across the Pacific progress and an interest in the Southeast Asia area as a tourist attraction increases. It is very difficult to estimate what effects the increases in tourism will have on the construction of hotel facilities or vice versa. In order to exercise some degree of control over this possible limitation, a major trunk carrier in the United States has merged with a hotel chain to construct facilities along their route structure » 4 " Work continues on liberalizing visa and customs requirements for tourists, in order to prevent any discouragement from that realm. " Due to these continuing efforts, no limitation from this source has been imposed on the forecasts for the future used in this study. Since no limitations of traffic growth as forecast are envisioned, they have not been applied to the basic calculation of new hire requirements. Another possibility for changing overall employment projections arises with the consideration of pilot productivity. This possibility is considered in the next section. The work rules under which a pilot flies almost completely define the conditions of his flying. They are usually developed in negotiations with the individual carriers by the representatives of the pilots. Of primary importance in determining the availability of a pilot for flying are the regulations concerning maximum flight hours. There are limitations on the number of hours a year, a month, and the number of hours of continuous flying that any pilot can do. During the period from 1947 to 1966, the legal 47 Ibid., p. 6, *" The merger of Hilton International Co. and TWA became effective 9 May 1967. Source: Aviation Week and Space Technology , 15 May 1967, p. 35. "Cousins, Norman, "There Are No Aliens", Saturday Review , 11 March 1967, p. 28. 1-41 maximum number of hours per month was 85 hours. Individual airline contracts need not correspond to this legal maximum, provided it is not exceeded. Many contracts currently require a maximum of only 75 hours per month. Included in this maximum number of hours are certain non-flight credited hours. For example, flights at night or those which require a considerable amount of time away from home or lay-overs accumulate flight hours at a greater rate than clock time or gain credit for the long duty period. With these credits and the limitations placed in any given time period on the number of hours available, the scheduler's task is a very difficult one. He must try to schedule pilots to aircraft and flights which meet the legal restrictions and still minimize the non-flying flight credit hours. At the same time, he must satisfy the seniority bidding of pilots. His ability is also very much dependent upon his company's route structure. For certain route structures, it is possible to put together flight segments that add up to an eight-hour flying period and have the pilot back home at day's end. This is particularly true of some of the local service carriers. For other route structures, it is almost impossible to do this, since the one-way flight time to a given destination may be very close to the legal daily maximum number of hours that a pilot can fly. This, of course, would necessitate a "nonproductive" lay-over at that destination before he could either bring a flight back or take the succeeding flight on the next day to the next destination. These complications, coupled with the fact that scheduling is an extremely difficult problem in its own right, underscore the difficulty of the task of scheduling to maximize utilization of pilots. The question of maximizing revenue production by pilots is complicated further by other factors. One of these revolves around the procedures concerning vacation time. Vacation assignment is subject to bidding procedures, based on seniority, such that the prime vacation times are bid for by the most senior pilots. The vacations must be provided for in the schedules and do detract from the availability of pilots for revenue productive flying. Vacations are somewhat easier to plan for than the training obligation of the airline which, in part, is dependent upon bidding. Eligible pilots bid on vacancies in aircraft for which they may not be checked out, necessitating training. This also decreases the available revenue production time for pilots. During the time when the more senior men are bidding for the most attractive vacation months, this becomes a real problem for scheduling. This particular study does not go into detail on the problems associated with this internal training-bidding-scheduling problem, but only treats the results of these obligations on the availability of pilots for revenue productive flying. 5 CAB Handbook, op. cit 1-42 Further adding to the complications of the scheduler and losses due to vacations are a host of other factors associated with airline operations. Slippage is introduced into the plans because of weather, sick leave, deadheading, delays, accidents, and a multitude of other factors. The combined results of these factors mean that no pilot can be scheduled to fly the legal maximum of 85 hours a month or even the 75 hours a month specified in some of the contracts. The revenue production flight hours are called "stick hours" or "hard hours" in the industry. The actual number of stick hours varies considerably from airline to airline but generally lies in the range of 50-55 hours per month, with extremes of from 35 to 60 hours per month. -*1 There are substantial arguments on what will happen in the future to this factor. The airline point of view can be summarized as one of hoping to establish a floor on stick hours. They are willing to entertain different payment schemes if this floor can be maintained and/or they can gain some flexibility in scheduling the pilots to meet the peculiarities of a given schedule and route structure. This position on the part of the airlines is clear from the standpoint of the impact on their revenue. Reductions in stick hours have a compound effect, in that they feed back to the scheduling function and make it more difficult, thus increasing their impact. The ALPA point of view hinges on the concept of a "duty period", which may or may not include flying. They are assessing a proposal to use a formula for computing pilot pay based on "work units" which are related to the time on duty, nature of the duty, and the time of start of duty.->^ Their feeling is that the pilots' workload is also related to the number of takeoff s and landings, and these will increase in a given duty period as the aircraft speeds become higher. The overall effect would be a decline in stick hours, as the average speed of aircraft increases, due to a faster rate of accumulating work units for the takeoffs and landings than at the straight clock rate." As a result of these considerations of the issue by both the airline management and ALPA, it was concluded that there will be a slight degradation in the number of stick hours flown per pilot per month in the future. It will probably be about the same rate as that already reflected in the historical relationships. For the determination of the -^Based on interviews with several carriers. 52 Langdon, Robert, "ALPA's Flight Time - Duty Time Study", The Air Line Pilot , November 1963, p. 4. 5-*There is need for some research on the question of finding an appropriate basis of pay for pilots. Should it be work load or responsibility, for instance? 1-43 number of new hires required, this has been assumed the case. Provision was made to study the effects of a greater rate of decline in stick hours than that which has been the case to date. Another factor which affects the need for pilots is the crew complement per aircraft. It is anticipated that the Boeing 747 will have a crew complement of three. There is speculation that the SST, however, will have a complement of four, with a new officer's position being created called the "command officer". On the other hand, the smaller, short stage- length aircraft, such as the DC-9 and Boeing 737, are designed for crew complements of two. The newer types of aircraft that are being contemplated for the even shorter stage lengths, such as the VTOL and the STOL aircraft, generally are planned for two-man crews. The present crew complements in the civil air carriers range from two to four. Thus, for this study, it was assumed that the mixture of crew complements would be the same as it has been in the past. In summary, the projected growth rates seem attainable and the historical relationships are assumed to hold for the period through 1980. Overall employment levels, therefore, were determined directly from the aircraft forecast and statistical relationships. To get new hire requirements, it is necessary to add to the increases in employment, the replacement personnel required each year. To do this and to provide a means for testing some of the assumptions, a computer program was developed. A description of how it is used to determine overall requirements and the information which was processed by this program is given in the next section. Statistical Description of Pilot and Mechanic Force The factors which contribute to the demand for new pilots and are isolated for study are shown in Figure 1-19. Thus far the discussion has centered on the factors of overall employment projection, limitations to these projections, and changes in pilot revenue-generating flying time. The other categories all represent aspects of the annual losses of pilots from the flying force. The projection and its components, plus the annual pilot loss rate and its components, form the basis of a computer model for determining the annual new hire requirements. The model was developed both for the calculation of these requirements and for testing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the assumptions or individual components. Before using this model, it was necessary to develop a statistical description of the employed pilots and mechanics as of year-end 1965 as input data for the computer. It was also necessary to determine the values of certain United Air Lines and the Air Line Pilots Association are attempting to resolve the issue of whether the Boeing 737 will be flown with a two- or three-man crew. At this writing, the issue is still being discussed. 1-44 u 4-1 a •P-I !-< P4 0< CO (X •H J3 co C o / 6 •H / o 4-1 / 5" 1 c<5 / <+-) CD i— i / t) -i 1 There is a slight difference between the age distribution reported for 1966 new hires as opposed to those for 1965. In 1965 the average age was 27 years and the range was 19-35 years. The average age was slightly higher in 1966, although the range was the same. Since the pilot age distribution was somewhat higher in the supplemental carriers and commercial operators than for the total certificated route air carrier pilots, it is probable that their hiring age distribution is also somewhat higher. Therefore, the ATA data for the 1966 new hires (summarized in Figure 1-22) was used for the total civil air carrier group. "^Federal Aviation Agency, FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation , 1966 ed., p. 84. "What the Airlines Need in New Flight Personnel", Air Transport World , January 1967, p. 21. 64 It is interesting to note that even though the oldest stated applicant age is 35, 4.2% of the new hires in 1966 were between the ages of 35 and 39, and one new hire was in the 40-44 age group. This is probably due to the difficulty airlines were facing in getting the number of applicants to which they are accustomed. ^ Summary of 1965 Airline Hires , Air Transport Association of America - Personnel Relations Conference (unpublished memoranda), April 1966, and industry questionnaires. 1-48 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MECHANICS U.S. CIVIL AIR CARRIERS DECEMBER 31, 1965 25 20 Percent of Mechanics 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age Bracket 50-54 55-59 Age Bracket 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 Percent 6 10 .6 20 .1 15 3 19 4 14 .2 8 .7 5 .7 Figure 1-21 1-49 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF PILOT NEW HIRES U.S. CIVIL AIR CARRIERS 50 40 30 20 10 - Percent of Pilot New Hires 5 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age Bracket Age Bracket Percent 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 15.4 47.5 32.6 4.2 .3 Figure 1-22 1-50 The justification for using the distribution with the slightly higher average new hire age is the incorporation of the commercial operators and supplemental carriers in the group. The new hire age distribution for mechanics used for the computer model is shown in Figure 1-23. This is based on data compiled by the U. S. Department of Labor. " It generally agrees with the data which summarized the 1965 mechanic hiring as developed by the ATA. Although some mechanics were hired below the age of 20, they were included in 20-24 age group for purposes of the computer model. This was necessary due to programming considerations but does not affect the resulting forecasts. Provision is made in the hiring policies of the airlines to hire mechanics up to age 60. In practice, however, this is not generally done, and only 37o of the new hires are over age 45. These two new hire age distributions represent the current hiring practices of the civil air carrier group. For purposes of projecting new hire requirements, they were left the same throughout the period. Nothing has been observed in the course of this study that would lead to a conclusion that the ages of the new hires of either the pilots or mechanics would change. There may be some year-to-year variation in the actual ages, but as an average the distributions developed will probably hold. Annual Loss Rate of Pilots and Mechanics For purposes of this study, the annual losses of pilots and mechanics to the industry include retirements, early retirements, and all other reasons. This latter category, called attrition in this report, would include quits, transfers to non-flying (non-mechanic) jobs, promotions out of these categories, death, proficiency failures, releases, and so on. A very important distinction must be made between the loss rate and a turnover rate (persons that have related employment levels) . From an individual airline's standpoint, it is the turnover rate that is important. That is, the persons that leave must be replaced. For the industry as a whole, however, some of these persons may take jobs in other companies and thereby not require replacement from outside the industry. DO Telephone conversations with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. Department of Labor, Washington, D. C. Summary of 1965 Airline Hires , op. cit . 68 Ibid. 1-51 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MECHANIC NEW HIRES U.S. CIVIL AIR CARRIERS m CD U ■H X !5 0) ^- o •H £ 43 o 0) M-l O 0> o cu PL, 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 Age Bracket 45-49 50-54 Age Bracket 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 Percent 30.2 28.4 17.1 13.4 7.9 2.4 .6 Figure 1-23 1-52 Individual companies and the industry as a whole are justifiably proud of their records on pilot turnover. In the past, it has been less than .1% per month as compared to 4% per month for industry in general. After corrections are made to the turnover rate to determine loss rate, the figure is lower still but not without importance. This is especially true in view of the cost involved in training and maintaining the proficiency of a pilot. For two of the categories of loss (early retirement and attrition) , the number of people involved each year is considered to be a probability function. That is, the per cent of the employed pilots who, for example, elect to retire early in a given year is considered variable. The number who actually do depends upon a variety of individual circumstances. To adequately describe this for purposes of the computer model, the probabilities of the various possible levels of early retirement were specified. The computer then determined the high, average, and low number of possible early retirements for each year. The same procedure was used for the yearly attrition. This led to a high, average, and low forecast and a suipmary of new hire requirements over the period, depending on the high, average, and low levels of early retirement and attrition. This was felt to be a more appropriate way of describing the phenomena associated with these two categories of loss. The question of the levels of attrition and their associated probabilities is discussed next. The ATA surveyed the certificated route air carriers regarding industry pilot turnover experience for the year 1966. '^ They found a gross turnover of 1.77% for a sample of trunk, local service, and other carriers. This was divided into disability retirement,'*- death, promotion, and other. Only the latter category would be eligible for employment as pilots with other carriers and a portion of that category would likely not be employ- able. The "other" category represented over half (.96%) of the 1.77%. If 75% of the men of this group found employment in other companies in the industry, there was a net loss rate of 1.05% for the year 1966. This was compared to an implied loss rate of .7% for 1964 found in the FAA study. 72 In this study, they did not discuss the loss rate explicitly, but their projections indicate that .7% was the rate used. 69 Air Transport Association of America, 1966 ed., op. cit. , p. 15. ATA Personnel Relations Conference unpublished memorandum, op. cit, '■'-The airlines distinguish a disability retirement in their retirement figures. For the purposes of this study, this category is treated under attrition rather than retirement. 72 FAA Project Long Look , op. cit. , p. 89. 1-53 To provide a better understanding of the attrition factor, detailed information was obtained from four carriers. These carriers account for nearly 50% of the pilot employment. The results of this survey are shown in Figure 1-24. This figure shows a turnover rate of 1.67% which agrees very closely with the ATA survey. The turnover in 1964 was 1.11%, showing about .47. difference between turnover and loss rate in the FAA study. For this study, the loss rate for the yearl966 was set at 1.057>. This reflects the comments of the carriers to the effect that a number of pilots were changing jobs. Opportunities were opening up in different companies because of the difficulties in finding pilots. The 1.05% probably understates the requirements; consequently, the ability for testing the sensitivity of this factor was incorporated in the computer model. The range of possible attrition rates was set quite wide, reflecting the uncertainty in this factor. The range and the probabilities were based on conversations with the carriers and on the data from individual airlines. For 1966 the attrition rate range runs from .6% to 1.5%. The individual carrier data, summarized in Figure 1-24, indicates the possibility that the average attrition rate is increasing. Although the sample spans only the years from 1962 through 1966, the rate went up in each year except 1964. This suggests that the attrition rates for the years after 1966 possibly should be greater than 1.05%. There are other arguments for an increasing rate in the future and some that indicate the rate will be inhibited after a period. These will be discussed in the following paragraphs. Several persons in the airlines discussed the present pilots' dedication to flying and the effect on the turnover rate.'^ As military- trained new hires have become fewer, there has been a trend to hire pilots with less experience than previously. At the same time, the airlines are trying to increase the educational prerequisites for their pilot applicants. These two factors combine to increase the probability of voluntary quits. In the first instance, a man with considerable experience has been exposed to the unique problems of being a pilot; he has come to grips with the extended time away from home, variable duty hours, and bidding procedures. The less experienced person will have to face these problems and decide whether it is really worthwhile for him. Higher educational requirements put two kinds of upward pressure on the attrition rate. In the first place, a greater number of employment possibilities are available to the persons with more formal education. In the second instance, the pilot may find it more difficult to find intellectual satisfaction with his job. 73 The airlines were American, Bonanza, Trans World, and United. They employed 9,852 of the 21,972 certificated route air carrier pilots employed in 1965. Personal interviews with individual carriers. 1-54 PILOT ATTRITION RATES VARIOUS AIRLINES 1962 1963 1964 TWA 1965 1966 American Pilots 2256 2225 2250 2776 3959 Attrition % 1.4 1.8 Bonanza 1.9 2.4 2.0 Pilots 74 94 103 108 112 Attrition % 1.4 1.9 2.7 Pilots 2163 2173 2623 3053 3583 Attrition % 2.0 1.6 United 0.8 0.8 1.5 Pilots 3002 3059 3374 3895 4464 Attrition % 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 Pilots 7495 Attrition % 1.04 Total 7551 1.34 8350 1.11 9852 1.47 12118 1.67 Figure I -24 1-55 In addition to these factors are the increasingly diff" draining and checkout expected for the next generation of air The FAA has already initiated a program of updating the requirements for maintaining an Air Transport rating. '^ This program is based -on flight proficiency; but as more is determined about pilots 1 physical requirements for flying, there is every likelihood of more stringent standards in this area as well. Somewhat offsetting these factors is the research being conducted to provide better screening of applicants for flying jobs. Much work is being done in this area, but major improvements have yet to be made. One of the difficulties in placing much emphasis on better screening is that it presupposes an adequate supply of applicants. The supply must be at such a level that, once the criteria have been applied, enough candidates remain to fill the available positions. The net result of these considerations was that the attrition rate used in the model increases slightly until 1970. The average loss rate was increased from 1.05% in 1966 by .1% per year until 1970 and then held constant. The range of rates for each year remained constant throughout the fifteen-year period, with .1% being added to the upper and the lower limits annually. It was felt that by 1970, when the rate would be 1.45%, the cost of attrition would be great enough that some major management steps will have been taken to stabilize the rate. Also, it is likely that by then the screening criteria will have been improved sufficiently to assist in keeping the rate from climbing. The distributions for 1966 and 1970 are shown in Figure 1-25. The computer model assumes that this attrition is uniformly distributed between the ages of 20 and 60 for all pilots. There are two modifications that would perhaps improve the accuracy of this but which go beyond this study. The first of these would be to explicitly take into account the one-year probation period of new hire pilots. The losses during this first year are probably higher than in succeeding years because the pilots are not yet under the protection of a union contract.'' A second consideration would be that of the interrelationship between the "promotion" of men (included in attrition) and retirement. It is likely that the pilots so promoted would be the more experienced and, hence, older pilots. Therefore, this would slightly increase the rate of attrition in the later years and also reduce the number of men who are still pilots when they retire. It was felt that these modifications would not materially change the overall Changes to parts 19, 61, and 121 of the Federal Air Regulations were published in the Federal Register (32 F.R. 260) on 11 January 1967. 'American Institute for Research, Research on the Selection of Aircrew Personnel , Research Note No. 13, April 1957. See, for example, the 1965-1966 Agreement between United Air Lines, Inc., and the Air Line Pilots Association, International, p. 45, or American Airlines, Inc., and Allied Pilots Association, 9 July 1965, p. 32. 1-56 PILOT ATTRITION RATE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROJECTIONS CIVIL AIR CARRIERS .20- Probability of Rate .05 1966 1970 " V .4 L.O 1.2 1.4 1, Attrition Rate 6 1.8 2*0 Attrition Rate Probability 0.6 .05 0.7 .05 0.8 .10 0.9 .15 1.0 .15 1.1 .15 1.2 .15 1.3 .10 1.4 .05 1.5 .05 Attrition Rate Probabilit 1.0 ,05 1.1 ,05 1.2 ,10 1.3 ,15 1.4 ,15 1.5 ,15 1.6 .15 1.7 .10 1.8 .05 1.9 .05 Mean = 1.05 Mean = 1.45 Figure 1-25 1-57 results of the forecast but would change slightly the levels of the individual components of the forecast. The data on mechanic attrition were considerably less detailed than for pilots. An ATA survey on turnover included mechanics but gave only gross "separation" totals. These must be adjusted for the mechanics who leave one company and go to another and for the other categories of attrition. The study indicated that the separation rate for mechanics was 6.6% for the year 1965 and 6.5% for the year 1964. Since data available on the details of these calculations only gave the separations from the company and did not include internal transfer out of the mechanic jobs, the 6.6% figure probably understates the actual loss of mechanics to an individual company. The separation classifications (quit, discharge, layoff, and miscellaneous) gave no indication of the employability of the mechanic in another company, although some certainly would be re-employable. For purposes of this study, an industry mechanic attrition rate of 5.0% per year was used. This was determined as reasonable given the under- statement of individual company loss and the fact that some of those who leave a company would be employed elsewhere in the industry. Since no trends are indicated in the data available, this rate was left constant for the forecast period. For the mechanic new hire forecast, only the average loss rate was used because of the lack of data upon which to determine a probability distribution of attrition. Under the general category of attrition, a special area of consideration that affects pilots only is that of losses during the initial training by an airline. This factor is treated separately because it increases the initial hiring requirements rather than the overall pilot employment or replacements. A great deal of individual variability was found to exist in this factor. For some carriers, the attrition rate was effectively zero during training.'^ In other instances, the rate was as high as 10%. These losses are dependent upon the training program and hiring philosophy, as well as the caliber of the incoming student pilots. For forecasting pilot new hire requirements, an average loss rate 78 Air Transport Association of America - Personnel Relations Conference, unpublished memorandum dated 25 February 1966. /y Some local service carriers have a very brief indoctrination training program and rely heavily on on-the-job training. Thus, their training losses really show up in the first-year attrition rates. 80 The recently inaugurated "zero-time" training programs showed that the failure rate for low-time pilots was generally double that of the normal new hire. This has been substantiated in discussions with training directors of other airlines in their comments on low- time people. 1-58 of 57o for initial training in the certificated route air carrier segment was used. ■*- The computer model used this factor to increase the required number of new hires necessary to meet the overall pilot projection for any given year. It was assumed that these pilots would not fly in revenue-production service but would simply leave the force during or after their initial training program. For purposes of computing the forecast of new hire requirements for both pilots and mechanics in the civil air carrier industry, it was assumed that the commercial operators and supplemental carriers had the same attrition rates as the certificated route air carriers. Data were not available in sufficient detail to evaluate this assumption. Since the numbers involved in the commercial operators and supplemental carriers are small, it is felt that whatever error was introduced by this assumption was small relative to the total forecast. The same assumption was made for the remaining category of loss -- that of retirement. This was divided into mandatory and early retirement. A discussion of these categories follows. The mandatory retirement age for pilots is 60 years. This regulation was established amidst considerable controversy. As a result of this reduction from age 65, some of the carriers and the Air Line Pilots Association have been concerned about the possibility of future reductions in the mandatory age. Specifically, some planning has been done to assess the impact of a reduction in retirement age to 55. ^ The airlines do not want this reduction because it further reduces the productive life of the pilots, in whom they have a substantial investment. ALPA, likewise, maintains that the retirement age should not be lowered because of the reduction in earnings for their members. Thus, the probabilities of a retirement age reduction are slight. For these reasons, the retirement age was held constant at 60 throughout the period of the forecast. It has been felt desirable for some time that retirement be based on 84 condition rather than calendar age. The objective would be to permit a man to fly as long as his physical condition and proficiency were such that he could accomplish the job with complete safety. Even though 81 Based on discussions with a number of training directors for both trunk and local service carriers. ° For a description of the arguments surrounding the decision to lower the retirement age to 60, see: Ruppenthal, Karl M. , "Compulsory Retirement of Air Line Pilots", Industrial and Labor Relations Review , XIV, No. 4 (July 1961), p. 528. QO OJ Personal conversations with various air carriers. 8Zf Ruppenthal, ojk cit. , p. 528. 1-59 a pilot has two or three complete physicals a year and a like number of proficiency checks, no substantive agreement on a variable age retirement plan has come about. If this should be accomplished, very likely some men would be retired earlier than age 60 and others after that age, with the average age still approximately 60 years. Because of these possibilities, the model was written to accommodate various assumptions about retirement age, in order to measure their impact on new hire requirements. The mandatory retirement age for mechanics is age 65. 5 For essentially the same reasons as mentioned for pilots, this was assumed to remain constant through 1980. For use in the computer model, however, the age distribution was changed slightly to allow an effective retirement age of 60 years for mechanics due to programming considerations. The results of the projections were not affected by this change. One option available to pilots and not to mechanics is early retirement, a component of the annual losses of pilots. Most pilots in the civil air carrier industry have the right to retire prior to the mandatory age of 60 years on an actuarily reduced pension. In general, these plans permit retirement at age 50 after a specified number of years of service with the company. 86 Although the number of pilots who have elected to retire early is small, it is sufficiently large that this factor was isolated for study and is treated as a probability function analogous to the method used for attrition rates. In this manner, a high, average, and low figure are computed for each year and become part of the high, average, and low forecast. 87 A special survey of individual carriers, summarized in Figure 1-26, disclosed an early retirement rate of .09% for the year 1966. This compares closely to a rate of just under .1% found in an ATA study for the year 1966. ° For this study, a 1966 average rate of .092% was used. The data for the years 1962 to 1966 indicate an upward trend with an increase each year except in 1965. This trend is evident despite the fact that these benefits had been gained for many of the pilots by ALPA only two years prior to 1962. 85 FAA Project Long Look , op. cit. , p. 96. A discussion of the evolution of these plans is found in: Baitsell, John, Airline Industrial Relations: Pilots and Flight Engineers (Boston, Mass Graduate School of Business, Harvard University, 1966), chap. 6. 87 The airlines surveyed are listed in footnote 73. OQ ° ATA unpublished survey dated January 1967, op. cit. 89 Baitsell, op. cit. , p. 166. 1-60 PILOT EARLY RETIREMENT RATES VARIOUS AIRLINES 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 American Pilots 2256 2225 2250 2776 3959 Early Retirees % .044 Bonanza Pilots 74 94 103 108 112 Early Retirees % TWA Pilots 2163 2173 2623 3053 3583 Early Retirees % United .038 .164 .248 Pilots 3002 3059 3374 3895 4464 Early Retirees % .065 .118 .043 Total Pilots 7495 7551 8350 9852 12118 Early Retirees % .013 .026 .060 .051 .091 Figure 1-26 1-61 The viewpoints of the airlines and ALPA agree substantially on the trends in early retirement. The airlines maintain that most pilots inherently like to fly and, thus, are not candidates for early retirement, anless there are extenuating circumstances. They point out that those x-/ho have retired early did so because of family pressures or illness or to run a business that they started earlier in their flying careers. The airlines maintain that the number of pilots with these reasons will continue to be small, although they might increase slightly. ALPA argues that the increase in early retirements from 1962 until the present is not a strong, permanent trend. They say that the men who have retired early were taking advantage of a relatively new contract provision and that the benefits will not improve greatly enough in the future to lure more pilots into early retirement. Even with the variable annuity funds that characterize most of the retirement plans, they point out that the financial incentives will be to continue flying. The marginal increase in retirement benefits during the years from age 50 to 60 is sufficiently high to keep most pilots active. ALPA concludes that the percentage electing this option will probably not increase substantially. For the purposes of the projection of new hires, the early retirement rate was increased slightly over the period. The probability distributions used are summarized in Figure 1-27. The average rate of .092% was used for 1966. In 1970 the average was increased to .15% and in 1975 it was increased to .20%. The method for increasing these averages was to change the probabilities and the range of possible rates. Thus, the uncertainty as to the levels of this factor were accounted for in the high and low forecasts. The early retirements were assumed to be uniformly distributed for all pilots between the ages of 50 and 58. This completes the determination of the values of the data necessary for the computer model. The starting conditions, as described in the statistical description of the employed mechanics and pilots, and the annual loss rates over the period were inputs to the program. The program then converted these inputs into new hire requirements each year and summarized the cumulative requirements for all years. The results of the forecast for new hire mechanics and pilots and some of the implications of the sensitivity testing are described in the next section. Forecast Results and Some Implications of Sensitivity Analysis The results of a run of the computer model for projecting pilots, as shown in Figure 1-28, gives the employment levels and new hires for the civil air carrier industry. This output is in three sections. The specification of the conditions of the run are included on the first page, the detailed 1-62 PILOT EARLY RETIREMENT RATE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROJECTIONS - CIVIL AIR CARRIERS Probability of Rate 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Early Retirement Rate 1966 Rate Probability .19 0.1 .70 0.2 .11 0.3 0.4 Mean = .092 1970 1975 Rate Probabil ity Rate Probability .10 .10 0.1 .40 0.1 .20 0.2 .40 0.2 .40 0.3 .10 0.3 .20 0.4 0.4 .10 Mean = .150 Mean = .200 Figure 1-27 1-63 ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR AVIATION TRAINING CENTER PILOT FORECASTING FROM 1966 TO 1980 SAMPLE SIZE = 100 AND INITIAL PILOT FORCE = 22,972 OTHER CONDITIONS ASU JET AND PROP. BASED THIS PROJECTION USES THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION FOR JETS AND PROPELLER AIRCRAFT TO COMPUTE PILOTS . THE PROPELLER FORECAST IS FROM FAA. BASIC ASU RUN. THE GROUND RULES ARE SPELLED OUT IN THE BACKUP INFORMATION. MANDATORY RETIREMENT IS CONSTANT AT AGE 60 AND EARLY RETIREMENT IS UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED FROM AGE 50-58. ATTRITION IS UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED FROM AGE 20-59. NEW HIRES ARE 105 PERCENT OF REQUIREMENT. THE INITIAL PILOT FORCE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF 1000 PILOTS FOR COMM. OPERATORS AND SUPPLEMENTAL CARRIERS . Figure 1-28 1-64 CrT -JJ- — CO X in oC -i ~ CO X o Z in so - O a ■* 1- o o in :— o o -o :- O O f- t~ O C CO z ■ z 5 >- z 3 z LU ~* LiJ ,-J UJ i> ■-a •JJ c~\ z c: •: r: X m j 3 U"! OJ s vO UJ « ■ CM UJ 3 iH UJ c o 00 oc o o o * a: o o o ,-, : c; o o O OC o o o ;- 0C O O o m fc-j » m »-d ■ . l_ m o o >> t- in O O >v )- 00 > en i-i * > * r.-i a ■ m >r^ in >■ •o M-4 i*i > •- p~ .-i * ci IV _j ■ C- -. _l • OC i*i .j 3 OC •:: r _l 3 oc •* cr — ! (- =£ r-4 1- OC c— ? t- --.; -■J l- KfflO F-l 1— < J o H « • 3 :- < . • :- < > 3 ,-- «S . . '■" ai o o •S UJ O c •-. 3 1*1 3 0D & 1*1 ■ '-' 3 ITS CM o m ■,-: r^J o in iH tM O m CM . ■H V. »H ^. ■* ■«. CM m ■* in ■c =.' 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X O. 2 z 2 z z a Z a z 3 Z o Z Q -?• erf o »«] a erf a erf o erf 3 P- MM CM i- »-• co P- erf o H- e-e (M 1- erf in erf 1— •O iMI i- ■H erf P- erf erf p- o •^ 1- o ac u o oc o CO 0£ o in ac U CM ac O -0 p- 111 —t t- UJ ■ee] t- UJ CM p- UJ m p- uj en or •O 1- -» •*• ac r- *- "J -1- ac 00 p- "> •* ac Cf t- "J * ac o e— -> ^• *t r>- « o «t r» < o < p- < o < r» « o < CO < o uj 0> oc 111 o> oc UJ o ac UJ o> ac UJ 0» ac > .-) 0. > -* a. > erf a. > erf a. > erf a. 1-67 Ul > M UU t- O < < 3UI X > «oou>m^eo-*r-0'» , co.or-ooo ■O'OiAmi'ivriooma'iriN.^-r-o* KIDtnnilVNNNNNNNNNN (_ UJ 111 a oc i9 -I •" < « I a: a. ui x > uj < z r>-r , -««>.«->*- l/^-0.»-U">OO<\l Q* c^ ^ ^ o^ ^ o* ^ o^ o^ 1-68 year-by-year results including the values of the parameters for each year on the next three pages, and the last page includes a summary of the yearly requirements and cumulative requirements for each of the three levels of loss. The conditions of this run are those outlined in the previous sections. The projection of employment is based on the multiple regression equations for pilots which are based on pure jet and propeller aircraft. No limitations are placed on the projections for this run, and the stick hours are equal to those in 1965. The early retirement and attrition probability distributions are specified for each year and are equal to those developed in the preceding section. Retirement age is 60, and the training loss rate is 5%. The projected level of employment at year-end 1980 is 43,665 pilots. That is nearly double the 22,972 employed at year-end 1965. To increase to this number and replace the pilots lost each year, 31,814 to 40,067 new hires will be required between year-end 1965 and year-end 1980. The average number of new hires that will be required is 35,906. The number of new hires required in each year varies due to the relationship of replacement and growth. For example, in 1972, 2,230 and again in 1976, 2,247 would be required, although the intervening years each would require fewer new pilots. An increase in the number of retirements in year 1976 accounts for this difference. The age distribution shifts over the fifteen-year period. While the portion of pilots in the lower two age groups remains relatively constant for the entire period, the per cent in the two older groups increases. The modal age group shifts downward to the 30-34 bracket initially and then shifts up to the 35-39 bracket by 1976. The pilot employment levels are summarized in Figure 1-29. The forecast levels developed here were compared to a projection based on an Air Transport Association of America survey. The ATA asked their members to project their pilot hiring rates and employment levels until 1975. The majority of the carriers responding to this survey supplied data only through 1970. That group of carriers employed 75% of the pilots. Assuming that the employers of the remaining 25% would have the same trends in hiring rates, an adjustment was applied to the sample to equate it to the total civil air carrier industry. The number of respondents projecting to 1975 were considered too small to warrant correcting and comparing. The adjusted sample projected total pilot employment of 40,100 by year-end 1970. This is considerably higher than the forecast of 34,935 pilots employed in 1970 developed in this study, as seen in Figure 1-29. 90 ATA unpublished survey dated January 1967, op. cit, 1-69 CO Pi O Pi pJ Pi 16 o <: P-l l-H > W O H CJ> • W CO •-) • O D Pi Cm 'O 3 4-1 CO CO •H H \ ATA CO CO O 0) u Pn \ '- , \ CO \ 3 1 *-* 1 V ^ f^^ ^1 00 CTn o 00 on o ON CN H m U v£> CO CU CT^ 0> u t— 1 !* bO Pn o ON m ON o m ON ON o o o o m o o o o o o o o CO o o o o CN o o o zjuauiAoxduia qoxid 1-70 There are problems in simply asking the carriers for hiring rate projections to use as a basis for overall projections. One example will serve to illustrate this point. One airline projected a pilot new hire rate averaging 475 a year in mid-1966. Toward the end of 1966, their projected rate was 800 a year."^ In early 1967 their projected hiring rate for pilots was reported as being between 550 and 600 per year. Any of a number of possible reasons would account for these differences. Different persons may have responded to the questionnaire. The same person, in responding at different times, might react to an immediate and temporary situation. Most important, perhaps, was the apparent lack of a framework or model for developing their projections. The model developed here, adapted to the individual airline's needs, could serve a useful purpose in this regard. Cumulative new pilot requirements through 1980 were compared to the results of the FAA study of 1964. 9 ^ Both are plotted in Figure 1-30. The FAA study forecast a requirement of 14,878 new pilots between year-end 1965 and year- end 1980. This was based on 8,878 replacement pilots over the period and 400 new pilots per year for growth. Those figures are considerably less than even the low figure of 31,814 new pilots required, as forecast in this study. It is important to point out that the FAA study was based on a questionnaire submitted to the carriers and, therefore, was subject to the types of problems that were illustrated in the preceding paragraph. The derivation of pilot requirements from a model, such as that developed for this study, avoids these problems. The computer output for the projection of mechanic employment levels and new hire requirements, presented in Figure 1-31, is based on the factors developed in the preceding sections of this report. The format is identical to that of the pilot forecast. For the mechanic run, only the average requirements were developed due to a lack of data upon which to base probability distributions. The attrition rate is constant at 5%. Retirement age is 65 years (adjusted to 60 for computational purposes), with no early retirement option. 91 Ibid 7 "What the Airlines Need in New Flight Personnel", op. cit. , p. 31. 93 Brown, David A., "Military Pilot Shortage Part 1: Low Supply Forces Inefficient Employment", Aviation Week and Space Technology , 8 May 1967, P- 71. 94 7 FAA Project Long Look , op. cit. , pp. 9 and 89. 1-71 p PJ M a- C/3 Pi EH o 1-4 H P-i W U Di > hJ H H H > o • Q W H U W »n o pi Ph bO Average Low 3 PL. ^1 o en M m M - o Z IN) r- O UJ o UJ a. • • — OT • • o o ~- i— ro O O >. >- «-• 00 >- _l or -> —I • or o *- CM or o < • • ►— o IN m ■ • i 2 o o • UJ o o • UJ e> z a- o Z r* • « V ~o 1 • >* ■— J O >■ — -o _i • or o —1 I or t-i or o t- W or o K CO « • • i— ■3 1 • 1— uj o o « UJ o o < Z I- • uiJO Z r- • UJ JO O — or oo uj or 0- CL, • o • • • a o o in © • • • o o o I- J- or oo uj or a a & r- • LC • • o I in o m irv »v cr cu <$■ o J- • • I ■* CM *r -r o- o •a- • • I IT I— O -J O o rj> co »j- in ro • • r in co ^ in *-« <~i o oo oo uj o or * -3 O 00 UJ 0" or .«■ -j o — o O- CNJ LJ LO * -< o II oo co LU f— or •* o> ^j- in • I in a> in *j- o 1 ro fNJ O LO ,J X, _J LO -T — o- • CL ro -r -j C O J- -J- • • _i m 1 r- f~- »■ • • _l -c 1 in r- < O -J o t— >» • a o i- C> ^3 J- LO m • • iyi I o m ^ a in —i — i '.> 3 CO Cj in in I JJ >r _> .--( I u~ CO • • ^: -< 1 f>- r- l > !_) II O- CO • in • • o I -r o in in »v •t o o • m • • o i co o o in o> co *»■ o + • • I CM CM in -j -» -r -i- ■ < o- o >»■ • • I -T r- o r-l o -r • o s -^ ^ in ro • • I f-«is IflHrlQ CO • in ^ in h ro • • I ~o r- f.> oo 0" ui -^ or * or o- or •*• p- ro 0. ro o m X -o i c in »v ■4- O -O • m • • o I ao <_> o m o * ■* o * • • I CM (M m ^^ "n. ^- J- CJ> o o a- i>- j- in *r -j- -* ro • • I CM? oo o uj o or ro or o o» or co Z3 o o uj r> or co _i ro •- a> a. j- in -1 o «3 t- O or in 1 o I v *; -^ o II r/ o *r o or or z <4 L_J — «-? u. 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X UJ OO V X UJ <_> UJ i— — i UJ O UI K- — ■ ui U J t- — • UJ O UI 1— •— 1 UJ o UJ i— »— o r rt z -i o or or r —I — * ►- CM err o r^ or oo> or c_) P4 ac O en Of O r^ a r~ K- -) P" oc CD 1— -) r- ac w •— ->r- or o 1— -* OO < r- < u 1 f^- - — 1 a. > — * a. >- -* O. >• -« a. >- -* cv 1-76 M 111 t- o ■•• oi«o ■» o in «D <-l o>«mo « C^«M —lac NNHOin>4Kii4N«mNHiMq 3 111 S^KI^NlOIMnOONO^IMn o •« o o a. a. a p<9Nivnaa>4>inin4>mmmin«ninmin V) O «*» >— ill ui z ae u X X oc riMit»H«BinmNoiM«Nin u ui iMo«'C'' w «'^r-or-tya5o»oB* ui z > Mraonmainininininininin x u< X «S'faiHiMnmaiinai«nh« o Hh-mo^H^aiiflmMoiriMPiin ^> ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^ ^ ^ ^ Q^ 0* ^ ^» ^ ^ 1-77 The projection shows a growth in mechanic employment from 43,667 at year-end in 1965 to 80,224 by year-end 1980. To meet this increase and replace the annual losses, a cumulative total of 95,392 new mechanics must be hired in the period. The annual employment and new hire requirements are summarized in Figures 1-32 and 1-33. The age distribution remains relatively constant throughout the period, although the modal age group shifts back and forth among all groups between age 25 and 44. The number of new hires goes up or down each year, as with the pilots, depending on the relationship between growth and replacements. The ratio of mechanics to pilots in 1965 was almost 2 to 1. By the year 1980, the projected ratio has changed only slightly (2.2 to 1). This change is consistent with the increasing complexity of the aircraft envisioned for this period. The forecasting model was used as the basis for testing the sensitivity of the pilot projections to variations in some of the factors. Specifically, the results of changes in attrition, early retirement, stick hours, and aircraft projections were assessed. These results provide insights into areas where additional research would be of value in improving the accuracy of the model. The sensitivity of the projections varied greatly among the factors. The effect of changes in propeller aircraft and early retirement was almost negligible. The projections were quite sensitive to changes in the number of jet aircraft, attrition and stick hours, however. The results of these tests, summarized in Figure 1-34, and are discussed in more detail below. For comparison purposes, a base run of the projection was made, fixing the attrition rate at 1.5% per year and the early retirement rate at .1% per year. This gave a cumulative new hire requirement of 36,175 pilots. Next, the early retirement rate was increased 500% to .5% per year. Every- thing else was held constant. This yielded a cumulative requirement of 37,267 pilots, approximately a 37o increase. Thus, a dramatic change in early retirement rate was nearly negligible, causing only a 3% increase in requirements . Next, the forecast retirement rate of propeller aircraft was slowed 10% per year. That is, equivalently , the propeller fleet forecast was increased by 10% per year. This change, again from the base run, led to an increase of less than 1,000 cumulative new hire pilots required (the total was 36,943) The reason for this is the rapidity of replacement of propeller aircraft in the base forecast. Even a 10% change in this schedule does not materially affect the total number of aircraft in the fleet. Also, the fact that the regression equations show that more pilots are required to support a jet than a propeller aircraft works to reduce the effects of changes in the propeller forecast. 1-78 CM O-S H m u vO CO (?\ 0) !-j r-H fH 3 •H o o o O o o o o o 00 o o o o O O o o o o o o CM queuiXoxdma oiueipaw 1-79 o r^. c^ T-* CO CO 1 M m 5-i vD ca ai a\ a) S-i .— < !H 3 &0 pajxnba^ soxuFipaw ^^N 1-80 SENSITIVITY OF NEW PILOT REQUIREMENTS TO VARIOUS FACTORS IN THE PROJECTION MODEL Conditions of Sensitivity Run (same as base run except as Cumulative Pilot specified below) New Hires By 1980 1. Basic Run = Attrition Rate 1.5% and Early Retirement 0.1% 36,175 2. Change Early Retirement Rate to 0.5% Per Year 37,267 3. Reduce Rate of Propeller Aircraft Retirement By 10% Per Year 36,943 4. Increase Jet Aircraft Introduction Rate By 10% Per Year 41,283 5. Change Attrition Rate to 2.0% Per Year 39,265 6. Decrease Stick Hours By 1% Per Year 44,789 Figure 1-34 1-81 Another run was made for jets on the same basis as that for propeller aircraft. The schedule of deliveries of jet aircraft was sped up by 10%. As could be expected, the effect was greater than that for propeller aircraft. The increase in required pilots was from 36,175 for the base run to 41,283 or over 5,000. The 107 o increase in delivery- schedule led to a 14% increase in pilot requirements. This indicates that any refinements in the jet forecast would increase the overall accuracy of the forecasts. The sensitivity of the attrition rate was tested as well. In this case, the rate was changed from 1% to 1.5% to T/ a per year. At 1%, the requirement was 33,086 pilots. At 1.5%, it was 36,175 pilots and, at 2%, it was 39,265 pilots. Doubling the rate gave a 17% increase in requirements. This is particularly important in terms of the model, since it appears that efforts to measure this rate more accurately would yield better forecasts. The importance of individual airlines maintaining close control of this factor is apparent, since it impinges so heavily on their requirements for new pilots. A final run was made to test the sensitivity of the forecasts to changes in the stick hours of the pilots. In this instance, the forecast run shown in Figure 1-28 was used as the basis of comparison. To this basic program was added a 1% per year reduction in stick hours. The result was to increase the average requirements for new hire pilots from 35,906 to 44,789. This represents a change of nearly 9,000 or 25%. With this magnitude of change in the projections, it is apparent that this factor needs to be measured and assessed carefully. The implications for the individual airlines are clear, since the cost of training the additional new pilots due to this small annual change in revenue-productive stick hours would be great indeed. Thus, it behooves management to control this factor as carefully as that of attrition. 1-82 GENERAL AVIATION QUANTITATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR PILOTS AND MECHANICS Introduction The purpose of this portion of Section I is to define the cumulative need for pilots with professional skills and for skilled aviation mechanics in the general aviation segment of civil aviation in the period 1965 to 1980. General aviation operations include all civil aircraft operations, except those classified as air carrier operations. Thus, general aviation embraces a multitude of diverse and increasing uses of aircraft ranging from transportation of personnel and cargo by business firms in corporate aircraft and by air taxi operators to aerial application, power and pipeline patrol, and flying for pleasure. This part of the study does not include air carrier operations, as defined in the "air carrier" portion of the study, and military aviation is also excluded. At year end 1965, there were 95,442 active aircraft in. the general aviation fleet. This represents 98% of the total active civil aviation fleet in use at that time. In 1965, general aviation flew 16.7 million hours. This represents 78% of all civil flying done in 1965. ^ Approximately one-half of all civil aviation mechanics and more than half of all pilots with professional skills are engaged in general aviation activities. These activities are grouped by Federal Aviation Administration classification into four main categories: (1) business flying, (2) personal flying, (3) instructional flying, and (4) commercial flying. Business flying is operation of business -owned or leased aircraft for business transportation use; that is, not for hire. Personal flying is use of an aircraft for personal purposes not associated with a business or profession and not for hire. Instructional flying is use of aircraft for formal instruction either with a flight instructor aboard or under the direction of a flight instructor. Commercial flying includes the following three types of general aviation activity: 1. Air taxi operation is for-hire use of non-air carrier aircraft for air transportation. Aircraft used are termed "small aircraft", which, by definition, means a maximum gross weight 9^ FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation , op. cit. 1-83 of 12,500 lbs. Air taxi operators' permits are required for all non-air carrier, for-hire, point-to-point transportation. 2. Aerial application use includes cropdusting and spraying for insect control and seeding for reforestation. Fire-fighting operations are excluded. 3. Industrial/special use includes pipeline patrol, advertising and photography. The remaining uses of general aviation aircraft are grouped into a category- termed "other" and include research and development flight testing, sales demonstrations, sport parachute jumping, and ferry flying. During the overall Feasibility Study, Dr. Leslie Thomason and his associates at the Cessna Aircraft Company conducted a study of general aviation as it affects the feasibility of an aviation-oriented curriculum at Arizona State University."" The results of the Cessna study have been used to excellent advantage. Some of the methodology and discussion used for establishing factors from which employment can be predicted have been used in this report. The background material has been used for reference purposes. Some of the quantitative measures and forecasts of the Cessna study are plotted along with the data developed by the Arizona State University study team. In most instances, the Cessna projections are approximately 20% higher than the Arizona State University figures. This is due to the fact that the Cessna projections were based on an average sales growth rate, in manufactured units, of 14.88%, compounded annually. The Arizona State University projections were based on a fleet growth rate of 8.19% compounded annually. When the fleet attrition is deducted from the Cessna sales growth rate, the Cessna fleet growth rate will average approximately 11%. The difference between this rate and the Arizona State University rate of 8.19% accounts for the differences in the two projections. When available, Federal Aviation Administration projections are also shown. These were 20% lower than the Arizona State University projections. On the basis of the foregoing, and for the purposes of this study, the Cessna projections were considered as the possible upper limit and the Arizona State University projections as the lower limit of growth. On the basis of the dynamic growth experienced during the past three years, it is possible that even the Cessna projections might be exceeded. y Thomason, Leslie L., and associates, Study of General Aviation as It Affects the Feasibility of an Aviation Oriented Curriculum at Arizona State University , Cessna Aircraft Company, May 1967. 1-84 Assumptions It is recognized that many variables affect the validity of long-range forecasting and, for that reason, certain limitations must be set. In this study, the following assumptions were made: 1. The forecasts are predicated on the Gross National Product continuing to grow between 3% and 5% per year. 2. A minimum of 20% of the national expenditures for all goods and services will be allocated to transportation of one type or another. 3. The percentage of the total national transportation budget dedicated to air transportation will remain between 7% and 14% of the total expenditure for transportation. 4. There will be a continuing af fluency in an economy characterized as one in which approximately 50% of the disposable income is discretionary in nature. 5. There will be no major war beyond the Viet Nam situation during the forecast period (1965-1980). Other assumptions affecting specific factors considered in the forecasting procedures, such as pilot retirement age, mechanic retirement age, etc., are dealt with as appropriate in the body of the report. Data Sources On 16-17 January 1967, a conference of over sixty key representatives of the aviation community was conducted on campus at Arizona State University to seek guidance, information, and assistance in the study effort being undertaken. The research plan for the Feasibility Study was outlined, reviewed, and discussed in workshop sessions. The degree of attendee interest and participation during this conference was extremely encouraging. This meeting indicated, and subsequent investigation confirmed, that there is no detailed, factual statistical information available on employment in general aviation. Little or no data exists with which to make employment trend analyses. Limitations on the study effort, particularly calendar time available, precluded making an in-depth survey of general aviation aircraft owners and operators to seek the desired information. 1-85 i A literature search revealed that substantial relevant information is available from the government, from industry, and from trade associations. Some of the most significant measures on which information is available are identified and defined below: 1. The Federal Aviation Administration records the total number of registered general aviation aircraft and this 97 fleet size number is published annually. Registration of all civil aircraft is required at the time of purchase. Registration is cancelled normally only upon the initiative of the owner and not infrequently owners neglect to cancel aircraft registration when the aircraft is retired or destroyed. There is no recurring annual validation of the continued existence of the aircraft. Thus, it is a poor measure of the number of active aircraft. 2. The FAA records the total number of registered general aviation aircraft with a current certificate of airworthiness. To be eligible for flight, an aircraft must have a current certificate of airworthiness. The certificate of airworthiness is valid for twelve months and is renewable by satisfactory completion of a thorough inspection of the mechanical condition of the aircraft. Data submitted at the time of inspection on a FAA Form 2350 include information as to the primary use of the airplane and the total flight hours accrued during the twelve-month period preceding. This count is an accurate measure of the total number of active general aviation aircraft and was used as one of the fundamental parameters in developing employment forecasts. 3. As stated above, the Form 2350 also provides information on flight hours flown by each aircraft inspected during that year. Thus, total flight hours per year under this system cover all general aviation aircraft, except those joining the fleet as new aircraft during the year and those leaving the fleet during the year because of accidents, obsolescence, etc. The reported flight hours are adjusted slightly for these effects. The resultant estimated flight hours per year for all general aviation aircraft are reported in Table 5.1 of the FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation . This measure was accepted as accurate for the purposes of this study. 4. FAA Form 2350 data supplemented by periodic in-depth surveys of a representative sample of general aviation aircraft owners and operators are used to verify the usage distribution of general aviation. The Form 2350 provides data on the primary 9 ? FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation , op. cit. , Table 4.2, 98 Ibid. , p. 61. 1-86 use of the aircraft; that is, business, personal, instructional, etc. The periodic survey supplements and verifies the above with information on flight hours flown in each of the several uses to which each airplane may be applied. The data thus developed is based on reports from 90% or more of the total general aviation fleet and is adjusted to represent usage distribution for the entire fleet. This information is contained in Table 5.2 of the FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation and is used as one of the inputs to the employment forecast. 5. The Utility Airplane Council of the Aerospace Industries Association records information on utility aircraft production and new aircraft sales of U.S. manufacturers. This information was gathered and used as one of the inputs to the employment forecast. 6. Additionally, other information, including some predictions and forecasts for the future, were obtained from the Cessna Aircraft Company, Federal Aviation Administration, Beech Aircraft Corporation, U. S. Department of Labor, National Business Aircraft Association, Piper Aircraft Corporation, Civil Air Patrol, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, and a number of trade publications. Active General Aviation Fleet In order to provide a base for determining personnel needs, a quantitative evaluation must be made from which the size of the fleet can be determined. This is fundamental to later calculations which will be necessary to determine the requirements for personnel that will be necessary to operate and service the existing fleet in years to come, as well as the personnel required for the various supporting activities. Historically, growth and personnel requirements forecasts have been too conservative, since most forecasting by industry and by the government has been straight line growth based on history. Particularly in the field of government forecasting, the cut-off date for the period of history used has often been based on the latest available published documents. 1-87 One of the first in-depth studies following World War II was conducted by the Curtis Commission with the participation of all segments of industry and government. The general aviation part of this work was the result of the endeavors of the General Aviation Facility Planning Group. In spite of cooperation of the entire aviation fraternity, these figures were conservative and, in some areas, such as in the field of personal flying, were quite incorrect. ™ In 1963, President Kennedy requested the FAA to sponsor another in-depth study known as "Project Horizon". The report was published under the title, National Goals in Aviation . Here again, the forecast did not keep up with actual performance in growth. A more recent example is found in the report of the FAA, published in July 1966, and generally distributed in October of that year. Although this is a very thorough study, the cut-off date used for the period of history from which extrapolations were to be made was 31 December 1964. The study forecasts an active fleet of 160,000 units by 1975, which is considered even by the FAA as being extremely low, and that the projected rate of domestic sales for the industry (15,000 units a year) is likewise low. It is noted that, in 1966, the year in which the FAA report was issued, United States production, in fact, was 15,768 units. Assuming even 25% of these being for export purposes, it becomes evident that active performance should logically be far ahead of the projection by 1975. At year end 1965, there were 95,442 general aviation aircraft in the United States. Of these, the distribution by usage and hours flown in each use during 1965 is shown in Figure 1-35. One of the considerations for the proposed aviation training center is to train pilots to at least a commercial license level. The primary focus of this study was, therefore, on those pilots who need professional skill levels of pilot capability in the routine performance of their duties. Considering the categories of aircraft usage shown in Figure 1-35, with the exception of personal and business flying, this capability takes the form of the FAA commercial pilot's certificate, because the flying is normally for hire. With respect to business aircraft, approximately one-third of all business aircraft in 1965 were in the executive transportation subcategory. All aircraft in this subcategory are flown by professional pilots. The remaining two-thirds are aircraft used primarily for business transportation purposes. yy The Curtis Commission forecast that personal use of aircraft in general aviation would decrease until it would become an insignificant part of general aviation. Reports show that, during the last few years, however, personal use of aircraft has grown at a faster rate than even business use of aircraft. Federal Aviation Agency, General Aviation, A Study and Forecast of the Fleet and Its Use in 1975 (Washington, D.C.: Office of Policy Development, Economics Division, July 1966) . 101- FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation , op. cit. , Table 5.3. 1-88 DISTRIBUTION OF AIRCRAFT & FLIGHT HOURS BY CATEGORY OF OPERATION (1965) 1965 Year End During 1965 7o of Total Hrs. Flown % of Total Use Number of A/C Fleet (Millions) Activity Business 21,650 22.7 5.857 35.0 Personal 51,093 53.5 4.016 24.0 Aerial Application 5,041 5.3 1.143 6.8 Air Taxi 5,215 5.5 1.802 10.8 Industrial/Special 1,099 1.1 0.403 2.4 Instructional 8,034 8.4 3.346 20.0 Other 3,310 3.5 0.166 1.0 Total 95,442 100.0 16.7 100.0 Personal Total Minus 51,093 53.5 4.0 24.0 Personal 44,349 A/C 46.5% 12.7 million hours 76.0% Source: FAA, Pilot Manpower Data , Office of Policy Development, Wash., D.C., Feb 67. Figure 1-35 1-89 For this business use, the judgment assumption was made that the minimum desirable level of pilot capability is that of a commercial pilot. It was noted that a recent study revealed that 23% of all active commercial certificates were held by owners who fly their own planes. L For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that all aircraft, except those involved in personal flying, would normally be flown by pilots with commercial pilot capabilities. As shown in Figure 1-35, this type of flying involved 44,349 aircraft, which represents 46.5% of the total general aviation fleet. These aircraft flew 12.7 million hours, or 76% of the total hours flown in general aviation. Projected Fleet Size Three successive FAA fleet size forecasts were reviewed as part of this study. On page 51, Project Long Look states . . . "current trends in aircraft sales seem certain to outdistance the Federal Aviation Agency estimate of 102,000 aircraft in the active fleet by 1970 (Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1964-1969)". This was indeed the case. The 104,000 mark was actually passed in 1966. The July 1966 FAA forecast 103 predicts a fleet of 160,000 aircraft by 1975. The January 1967 (latest) FAA forecast 10 ^ predicts a 1975 fleet of 173,500 aircraft. It is noted that each successive forecast is for greater growth. In 1963, general aviation sales increased 13.1% over 1962. Since 1963, sales have increased each year over the preceding year by over 20%. Since 1962, general aviation sales have doubled. In recent years, air carrier industry activity measured in revenue passenger miles and revenue cargo ton- miles has increased rapidly. A substantial number of future air carrier activity forecasts were reviewed in connection with the air carrier portion of the overall study. Excellent correlation was noted between all forecasts reviewed. All predicted continued, rapid growth. Many of the underlying causal factors responsible for the recent surging growth of air carrier business and general aviation growth are thought to be related. For example, the exchange of passengers at air hubs between air carriers and air taxi operators is beneficial to both. Air carrier growth stimulates air taxi growth. 102 Cessna Aircraft Company, Study of General Aviation , op. cit. , p. 154, i r\ o u FAA General Aviation Forecast, op. cit. Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977, op. cit. 1-90 The fleet growth rate predicted for this portion of the study was based on the assumption that general aviation fleet growth will continue to increase at a rate of slightly over 8% per year compounded to 1980, a somewhat more conservative rate than that used by Cessna. The predicted fleet growth rate is also less than industry-wide predictions for air carrier passenger mile and cargo ton-mile growth. It is, however, believed a reasonable lower limit when compared with the FAA and the Cessna projections. On the basis of the foregoing, the total general aviation fleet is forecast to grow from slightly over 104,000 aircraft at year-end 1966 to 315,000 aircraft by year-end 1980. The calculations and curves are shown as Figures 1-36 and 1-37. The Cessna forecast to 1975 is approximately 20% higher and the FAA forecast is approximately 20%, lower than the trend line forecast by the Arizona State University team. Flight Hours Forecast Civil aviation in 1965 accounted for 38 million aircraft operations reported at those airports having FAA air traffic control towers. Of all these operations, 70.2% involved general aviation aircraft; 20.67 o involved air carriers; and 9.2% involved military aircraft. Had there been methods for determining the number of operations at airports without control towers, the number of general aviation activities and the per cent of the total operations for general aviation would have been much larger than the 70.2% figure reported, -* Of some 20 million aircraft hours flown by civil aviation during 1965, approximately 17 million were flown by general aviation. Preliminary figures for 1966 announced by the Education Subcommittee of the Utility Airplane Council (UAC) of the Aerospace Industries Association of America set this figure at more than 17 million hours. Since calendar year 1965 is the latest year for which reports are available, based on FAA Forms 2350, the 1965 figure is reported herein and shown in Figure 1-38. General aviation aircraft utilization measured in flight hours per aircraft per year has been increasing over the years. A comparison of FAA data for 1954 and 1964 reveals that utilization has increased 227o. This averages just over 2% per year compounded annually. It is believed that this increase is, at least in part, the result of improvements in both aircraft capabilities and capabilities of the federal airways navigational and traffic control systems. The figures represent operations reported at 292 airports which have control towers. There are more than 9,000 other airports, all but approximately 300 of which are used exclusively by general aviation. Reference: "Total Aircraft Operations at Airports Having FAA Traffic Control Service, Calendar Years 1965-1966", as reported in Airports Mean Business , UAC, Airport Subcommittee. 1-91 GENERAL AVIATION ACTIVE AIRCRAFT - FLEET SIZE FORECAST Numbers of Active Aircraft Calendar Year End Cessna Data FAA Aviation Forecasts, FY- 1966-1977, Jan. 1967, Table 6 Forecast of This Study - 8.197o Growth Per Year 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 104,882 114,585 125,732 138,537 153,248 170,148 189,562 211,865 237,486 266,920 95,442 104,000 112,000 120,000 128,000 136,000 144,000 152,000 180,000 95,442 actual 104,737 actual 113,000 123,000 133,000 143,000 155,000 168,000 182,000 197,000 213,000 230,000 249,000 269,000 291,000 315,000 Figure 1-36 1-92 GENERAL AVIATION ACTIVE AIRCRAFT TOTAL FLEET SIZE ON TD c p> w ro n l cfl rJ W W sa H o Pn go pi o Q W H H GO to Sh 3 4-1 O CO x c cO to o H 1 4-1 i 1 | i ~\ I—l i—i r-l 1— 1 1—1 S-i 3 1 — 1 ~-~- i 1 i—l 1 i H QJ QJ r-l| 1 1 1 i Ph O ',-■ CM CO o> kO r~ ^D OJ S-i » O O vO o> i-~ cn 00 CM (^- r— 1 Ph 3 O 00 oo en i-l i—l CO r^ r-l CO o r-~ O 3 a) qj i—i i—i i—i ■ — t i — i i — i r— 1 1—1 1—1 r-l r-l i—l CM o P-i u •r- 4 4-1 cj 3 S-i CO 00 cn >n O m r-- in ^o •u S-i in --!- r^- 00 CO o X ro co n r-l r^ r~- o o H X oo 00 en O O CM CM CO CO r~- oo cn| cm| cm| co|cm| ^1^1 cd CO >■£> ^O ^D >H cn cn cn cn cn cn GO OO cn cr\ C^ cn cn i—i i—l r— 1 • — i , — i i — i i—l i—l i—l r— i r-l r— 1 r— 1 C fi U 0J ■H o OJ QJ S-I CO rO a co CO 3 0) 3 OJ > S 00 CC 4-1 o . 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End Yr. End Each Yr. 4=2+3 /^ i 6=4+5 1177 1360 1553 1755 1978 2198 2495 2800 3130 3473 3947 4366 4779 5276 5799 Cumulative Total Pils Needed 1965 to Year 4520 5697 5697 4939 6299 11996 5397 6950 18946 5897 7652 26598 6444 8422 35020 7041 9239 44259 7694 10189 54448 8407 11207 65655 9186 12316 77971 10038 13511 91482 10969 14916 106398 11985 16351 122749 13456 18234 140983 14344 19620 160603 15673 21472 182075 46086 t 135990A 182076 t Figure 1-43 1-103 GENERAL AVIATION PROFESSIONAL PILOT NEED CUMULATIVE NEW HIRES ■ in l>« c^ i—i t3 C W * M ctj 1 0) >H H M OJ CO M TD 3 C 01 O m -ci- IT) O m Q-> i LO C^ 0 o 3 o O Ol U 1 3 in o CN CO fa o o CO o CN -[■bajlb^ux ux ^uaoaaj 1-106 GENERAL AVIATION MECHANICS - RETIREMENT 'Business" Mechanics - 9000 estimated I age 45 and over = £.10.8 + 5.1 + 1.0 = 16.9% ,169 X 9000 = 1521 "old" bus. mech. 1521 ,, , FBO Mechanics - 31,000 estimated % age 45 and over =£j.l + 4.8 + 2.1 = 14.0% 140 X 31000 = 4340 "old" FBO mech. 4340 94.6 — J-U . 1 UlfcJCU unit . pel ordinate 73.6 " JJ 1 2 3 4 Business FBO Mech. 16.1 X 1 = Mech. 59.0 X 3 = Lge at Ordinate No. Ordinate No. fear End from Bus. Mech. from FBO Mech. L963 Fig. 45 at Age Fig. 45 at Age = 59.0 mech. per unit ordinate 2 + 4 Number Total Retiring at at Age Year End 0.2 3 0.6 10 1.1 18 2.0 32 2.8 45 3.7 59 4.4 71 5.4 87 6.6 106 7.7 124 8.8 141 9.9 159 10.9 175 13.9 223 16.6 267 1963 1964 1965 1966 0.3 18 18 1967 0.8 47 47 1968 1.2 71 74 1969 1.7 100 110 1970 2.1 124 142 1971 2.7 159 191 1972 3.1 183 228 1973 3.7 218 277 1974 4.2 248 319 1975 4.7 277 364 1976 5.2 307 413 1977 5.7 336 460 1978 6.1 360 501 1979 6.7 395 554 1980 7.1 419 594 8.5 501 724 9.8 578 845 94. 6 t 1520t 73. 6t 4341 1 Figure 1-46 1-107 The 1965-1980 estimates for the total number of mechanics required in general aviation, as developed by Arizona State University, are shown in Figure 1-47. A trend curve of cumulative new hire mechanics for this period is shown in Figure 1-48. The two figures indicate a cumulative need of 138,483 mechanics for the general aviation industry between 1965 and 1980. The Cessna study covered general aviation mechanic requirements but analyzed only the requirement for certificated mechanics, while the Arizona State University study covered total mechanic requirements. The Cessna study also covered the period through 1975 only. Because of the wide variation in numbers, the Cessna data was not plotted in Figure 1-48. Discussion of Other Personnel Requirements This part of the Feasibility Study was conducted to determine the quantitative requirements for skilled aviation personnel. Because of resources and time, the quantitative requirements study was limited to an in-depth analysis of the pilot and mechanic requirements only. During the study, however, other potential personnel shortage developments were noted and some of these are discussed below. Electronics and Radio Personnel ; Increased usage of airborne electronic equipment indicates a growing demand for qualified personnel to service such equipment. Radio ratings are given to FAA approved repair stations in three general classes -- Class I is Communications Equipment; Class II is Navigational Equipment; and Class III is Pulse or Radar Equipment. H 1 Of the 1,364 FAA repair stations, 467 include authority to conduct radio repair. Much of the legal basis for this area is covered by such acts as the Communications Act of 1934^^ and by various administrative acts and directives of the Federal Communications Commission. *■" The increasing emphasis on airborne electronics is indicated by the fact that there are almost as many FAA approved radio repair stations as there are those approved for airframe repair and maintenance. There are over twice as many approved radio repair stations as there are approved powerplant repair stations. This particular category of radio ratings does not include Class II, Electrical, or Class IV, Electronic Classifications, found under instrument ratings, or does it include Class II or Class III, Electrical and/or Electronic classes under accessory ratings. 112 Public Law 416, 73rd Congress; 48 Stat. 1064; 47 U.S. Code 151, as amended. ^"As an example, to perform maintenance work on a transmitter other than removal and replacement requires a FCC Class I license which is a rating of the FCC rather than of the FAA or the CAB. 1-108 GENERAL AVIATION MECHANICS Attrition at 5% of Av 2 = Population .04838 X 1 40000 X Cum. at (1.076) Yr. End 40,000 43,040 2082 46,311 2241 49,831 2389 53,618 2594 57,693 2791 62,078 3003 66,796 3232 71,872 3477 77,334 3741 83,211 4026 89,535 4332 96,340 4661 103,661 5015 111,539 5396 120,000 5805 Retire- Replacements ments Needed, Cum. Cum. at at Yr. End Yr. End 4=2+3 Total Total Growth Mechanics Mechanics Needed at Needed at Needed Yr. End Yr. End Cum. A l 4+5=6 £6 2082 18 2259 47 2436 74 2668 110 2901 142 3145 191 3423 228 3705 277 4018 319 4345 364 4696 413 5074 460 5475 501 5897 554 6359 54785 t 3698 t 58483 t 3040 5122 3271 5530 3520 5956 3787 6455 4075 6976 4385 7530 4718 8141 5076 8781 5462 9480 5877 10222 6324 11020 6805 11879 7321 12796 7878 13775 8461 14820 80000 t 5,122 10,652 16,608 23,063 30,039 37,569 45,710 54,491 63,971 74,193 85,213 97,092 109,888 123,663 138,483 138,483 t Figure 1-47 1-109 GENERAL AVIATION MECHANICS CUMULATIVE NEW HIRES NEEDED lO a ■H a w u eg 0) u co *o c 0) i-t n3 O 00 I 0) •H P4 O o o o o in o o o o o o o o o soxuBipaw jo aaquiriN 1-110 Flight Instructors : Prior to receiving the flight instructor's certificate under Sub Part F, Part 61, the pilot must be a commercial pilot for all practical purposes, since instruction is performed for hire. Even though they do not operate for hire, they must, if operating under a private certificate, meet the ICAO commercial pilot requirements relative to aeronautical skills and knowledge and for the purpose of meeting the night flight requirements. For this reason, the number of flight instructors who will be required in the years covered by this study must be considered and added to the number of new commercial pilots that will be necessary to provide the basis for these flight instructors. In 1963, a conference between leaders of industry and the Federal Aviation Agency met in Wichita, Kansas, to consider the indicators which reflected on the climate in which general aviation would operate in future years. Following such meeting, various studies were conducted by trade associations, the industry and the government to determine, among other things, the future of flight instruction. In 1964, at least one company calculated a requirement for 193,000 new student starts a year by the end of 1968 for the industry to sustain its minimal rate of acceptable growth. *■*■•> Improvement in retention rates, effective instruction and marketing effort, within the last few months, have changed the requirement for new student starts, as reflected by industry and government data. As a result, during recent months, the 193,000 new starts a year has been revised to 190,000 new student starts a year by the end of 1968. Based on figures obtained by the Business Management Division of the Cessna Aircraft Company, fixed-base operators are utilizing the equivalent of one full-time instructor for each 27.5 student starts who take their instruction in that fixed-base operation. Although there are over 35,000 instructors listed on the rolls of the FAA,!-*-" this number is not in any way related to the number of pilots who are actually employed as full-time flight instructors. Because of the re- certification requirements in process at the present time, as well as Proposed Rule Making No. 67-1, •*•' it can be expected that the total number ■*- -^Section 61.170, as added by Amendment No. 61-18, effective 26 September 1965, 30 F.R. 8256. 1 - L - > This is predicated on a historical pattern in which 49.5% of student pilots continue through the private rating and that 28% of the private pilots eventually buy aircraft of some type and 30% of these become purchasers of new equipment within ten years after starting instruction. 116 As of 31 December 1965, the FAA listed 34,904 active airmen with flight instructors' certificates. 117 Docket No. 7858, "Certification of Pilots". 1-111 of active instructor certificates outstanding would be even less valid for a basis of calculation. Therefore, the ratio of unit sales to flight instruction appears to be the most logical approach. On this basis, there were the equivalent of 4,427 full-time flight instructors employed in 1966. Using this in relationship to the unit sales made domestically (as projected by Cessna), we have a factor which, when applied against the unit sales expected in 1970, would mean that a requirement exists for 7,788 instructors on a full-time basis by the end of 1970. This would be 3,361 more than were in the pool at the end of 1966. In addition to the 3,361 needed to augment the pool, a replacement factor of 3.9 would indicate a need for 13,393 replacements during this same four-year period. Adding the augmentation number to the replacement number, the industry is facing a need for 16,754 flight instructors during this four-year period, 1967 through 1970, or a simple average increase of 4,188 per year. This is not unreasonable in view of the fact that almost 5,000 original issuances and additional ratings are being experienced at the present time for flight instructors. This is even more reasonable when it is recognized that a simple annual average does not reflect the true situation, since the greater requirements would be during the latter part of the four-year span. On this same basis, a need for a total of 20,776 flight instructors can be expected by 1975. This is 12,988 above the 1970 requirements. Replacement requirements could run as high as 51,359 during this five-year span. The total of 12,988 augmentations and 51,359 replacements would mean 64,347 instructors during the five-year period, 1971 through 1975. Marketing Personnel : Of 3,500 fixed-base operators in the United States, only 1,474 are franchised by major manufacturers of general aviation aircraft as retail dealers, selling the products of those manufacturers to retail customers. The non- franchised operators, therefore, do not normally deal in new aircraft. Many of them do sell used equipment; but since many of these are one-man operations, the proprietor is, in fact, the salesman for the company. As a result, the operation does not generally employ the services of a full-time marketing man. Also, as a result, these independent operators are excluded from these calculations and we are dealing with the 1,474 franchised retail outlets. Applicants for a position as an aircraft salesman must have training and/or experience in the marketing of "high-ticket" items. In addition to a general knowledge of marketing in business, he must have special aviation training and orientation. A requirement is piloting ability through the level of demonstration techniques. Under existing laws, a salesman can operate as a demonstration pilot on a private pilot certificate if a sufficient number of hours are recorded in his "log book". Historically, 1-112 however, the equivalent of a commercial rating is tantamount to the basic requirement relative to pilot skills and knowledge. In addition to being able to fly the aircraft at the demonstration skill level, a knowledge of components and systems is necessary, along with a general knowledge of operational and service problems. There is an increasing demand for qualified salesmen. The last complete report on the intentions of fixed-base operators to expand this type of activity was a period ending at the close of 1965. The per cent of the fixed-base operators grossing more than a million dollars grew from 18.4% in 1962 to 27.8% in 1965. In 1965, the average income of fixed-base operators was $1,466,093. The median for that year was $396,750. Of the fixed-base operators, 36.7% listed aircraft sales as being the major source of the company's income. More significant was that, among the intended improvements and expansions listed, 25% indicated a definite plan to build a new sales showroom within the next eighteen months. 11° With the projected increase in the number of units to be sold per year, an increase in the number of people necessary to market the products is obvious. It is impossible, however, to equate the number of salesmen required in relationship to the number of airplanes to be sold, since most salesmen operate on a draw plus commission, making the price of the aircraft important to his income. One salesman might sell one sophisticated twin-engine aircraft to a corporation and receive more income from that sale than a fleet of small trainers to a flight school. Therefore, a ratio of new salesmen required in relation to the number of units to be sold in future years would not be a true picture. Based on a factor developed by the Business Management Section of the Marketing Administration Department of the Cessna Aircraft Company in the fall of 1966, it appears that the most logical methodology is to study the dollar volume required from aircraft sales within a fixed-base operation to sustain one full-time salesman. Based upon living costs throughout various sections of the country and the prevailing salaries of those areas, it has been determined that commissions and advances based on a retail sales volume of $332,000 a year will sustain one full-time salesman. The dollar volume appears to be the only constant, since the mix of aircraft sold is quite variable. On an average, the typical salesman will sell 13 single-engine airplanes, including small trainers, plus 4 twins, plus a quantity of used aircraft which were "trade-ins". Some salesmen specialize in twin-engine aircraft only; some call only on corporate markets. Therefore, the estimated retail sales figure is used as a basis for this section. At the present time, it requires, on an average, a dollar volume of $332,000 a year to sustain or justify one full- 1 ■'■"National Aviation Trades Association, Survey of NATA Members , 66-02. 29 April 1966. 1-113 time salesman. At the close of 1966, it is estimated that there were 1,675 individuals who were equivalent to full-time aircraft salesmen, selling new aircraft and/or used aircraft. The estimated domestic retail value of new airplane sales is expected to grow until it is $968,631,000 a year by the close of 1970. On this basis, it would require a total of 2,917 full-time salesmen or their equivalence, which is an increase of 1,242 over the last reported figure at the close of 1966. This is an augmentation figure of 1,242, which is a simple annual average increase of slightly over 300 new salesmen a year. By the same methodology, it is estimated that the retail value of new aircraft sales will reach $1,938,117,000 by the end of 1975. With $332,000 providing the basis for a full-time salesman, the total need by the end of 1975 will be for 5,837 salesmen, which is 2,920 more than expected in the selling force by the end of 1970. The augmentation figure of 1,242 for 1967 through 1970, plus 2,920 for 1971 through 1975, equals 4,162 new salesmen who must be added to the selling force of the franchised dealers between now and the end of 1975. Since the marketing personnel normally move into selling from other aviation-related activities and their losses to those former activities have already been calculated in the manpower forecasts for commercial pilots, instructors, service personnel, et al., no replacement factor is calculated at this point for salesmen. To do so would duplicate these people in more than one category of employment needs. Manufacturer and Business Aviation Requirements : The majority of the people employed by these two categories, in addition to the pilot and mechanic requirements discussed above, are engaged in production- type activities or clerical. As an example, the aviation industry, as a whole, has great needs for draftsmen, tool and die personnel, machinists and lathe operators. Those people have the same skills as draftsmen, tool and die personnel, machinists and lathe operators in other industries, except that they are able to adapt their skills to the special needs of aviation. The same would apply to clerical or accounting personnel. Personnel with these skills must, therefore, be recruited in competition with other types of industries not related to aviation. Port Authority and State Commission Requirements ; The last published report of the FAA listed 9,566 airports of all types in the United States. iy Of the 9,566, 3,570 are publicly owned, while the other 5,996 are private. l^This is the figure that will be used for the purpose of this report, since it is a published listing and is readily available for reference. 1-114 Most private airports are operated by a fixed-base operator who serves as the owner of the airport itself, as well as the fixed-base operator; or he also directs the activities of the airport under some type of lease agreement with the owner in connection with his operation. It is the 3,570 public airports which this report is concerned with relative to the needs for professional personnel. Of the publicly-owned airports, 4,106 are listed in the Airport Plan as characterizing "the national airport system and are thus considered the key to national air accessibility" . 120 These are the airports which may participate in federal aid airport programs. There are 436 airports in the Plan which, in fact, are not at this time publicly owned but are considered as needed or will be replaced by public ownership within the five-year period of the Plan. Airports are classified as either airline airports or general aviation airports. The airline airports are further classified as large hub, medium hub, small hub, or nonhub , determined by the per cent of the total United States airline traffic accommodated. The large hub is any airport complex accounting for 1% or more of the total United States passenger service; a medium hub accommodates between .257, to .99% of the total U.S. passenger traffic; a small hub accommodates between .057, to .247. of the total traffic; a nonhub accommodates .057, or less of the total United States traffic. The ,f hub fr is defined as covering a geographic area which is the same as the metropolitan area or an independent city area and includes all airports of that area whether used by scheduled airlines or not. The last Federal Five-Year Airport Plan listed 515 communities served by airlines -- 21 of these were large hubs; 39 were medium hubs; 83 were small hubs; and 372 were nonhubs.121 These publicly-owned facilities serving the airlines as well as those publicly-owned facilities serving general aviation, almost without exception, have full-time airport managers and staffs. The licensing of "executive" airport managers is a function of the American Association of Airport Executives. This organization was founded in 1928 and has several classes of memberships, including executive members, associate members, affiliate members, and corporate members. Through a series of tests, a thesis and experience requirements, the Association accredits a manager as an "executive" airport manager. The last official directory published by the AAAE listed 252 executive managers. 122 since date of publication, however, the number has grown to exceed 300.123 120p e( jeral Aviation Agency, 1965 National Airport Plan, Fiscal Year 1966-1970 , Washington, D.C. 12l National Airport Plan , Ibid. , p. 10. 122American Association of Airport Executives, Airport Executives Directory , 1966. 123g ase( j on a telephone conversation with Russell Hoyt, Executive Secretary, American Association of Airport Executives, Wilmington, Delaware, 9 March 1967. 1-115 Larger airports have several executive managers on their staffs. Based on reports of the AAAE , there are slightly over 500 airports which do have full-time managers. This means that well over half of the managers then would not be licensed or "executive" managers at the present time. Larger airports, such as large hubs and medium hubs, normally have an airport manager who has a staff consisting of several assistants, including those in charge of operations, finance, plans and development, and public relations or community services. Small public airports with airline service usually have at least one or more assistant directors, while the larger airports go as high as 30 assistants who are professionally trained in their specialties. Information obtained directly from the Association of Airport Executives indicates that, shortly after the war, a strong flying background was the main prerequisite for personnel going into this type of work. Shortly thereafter, it shifted to an engineering emphasis. More recently, the emphasis has again shifted toward business administration with aviation orientation. " At the present time, the monthly publication of the AAAE J lists from three to five openings each month for managers or assistant managers. If the 500 airports with full-time managers had an average of three assistants, this means that we today are employing approximately 2,000 full-time airport managers and assistant managers throughout the country. It is anticipated that, with the growth of air activity both in general aviation and in airline activities, the requirements for experienced and trained personnel would increase. With respect to state commission requirements, according to the last count, 45 states out of 50 have an airport commission either operating as an independent commission or as a part of another agency, such as a planning and resources board. In only one state was it possible to find a one-man operation without assistant professional personnel. Some states, such as Montana, Nebraska, California, Wisconsin, and others, have complete staffs, including a director plus deputy directors in charge of special areas, such as airports, air age education, community services, operations and special activities. A cursory examination of the source of employment indicates that, for the most part, employees of the commissions come from the region rather than being recruited on a national basis. This, however, is not always true. 126 it is calculated that approximately 200 persons having full-time employment as professional members of the staff for state commissions of aeronautics exist. l^An example would be a county port authority operating as many as 10 or 15 airports under one authority, requiring that the airport manager himself, in fact, be a pilot in order to call on, inspect and supervise the activities of the various airports within the county. 1 2S American Association of Airport Executives, The Airport Report , official publication of AAAE, Wilmington, Delaware. 126a good example would be the commissioner for the State of Nebraska who resigned to become the commissioner for the State of Michigan. 1-116 Summary of General Aviation Requirements On the basis of the information presented in this portion of the report, it is indicated that the general aviation industry will require approximately 182,000 new commercial pilots and 138,000 new mechanics during the period 1965-1980. It is also indicated that personnel shortages are developing in skill areas other than pilots and mechanics. As stated earlier in this section of the report, there is no detailed, factual statistical information available on employment in general aviation. Little or no data exists with which to make employment trend analyses. The projections made are considered realistic, however, considering the past growth history and projections made by others, such as Cessna Aircraft and the FAA. The limitations on the projections made herein, along with the emerging needs for aviation-oriented skills other than pilots and mechanics, indicate a requirement for an ,r in-depth" study of general aviation requirements. Such a study would provide not only a better understanding of these needs but could also lead to the development of a suitable mathematical model for use in prediction of the various needs, such as the model developed for predicting air carrier requirements. The study should also cover each of the various categories of operation in the general aviation field. 1-117 A PROJECTION OF THE SUPPLY OF COMMERCIAL PILOTS AND A COMPARISON TO THE DEMAND Introduction In developing this projection of the supply of pilots available to meet civilian professional needs, two sources were considered. The first of these was the military, the traditional source of pilots for the major airlines of the United States, and the second was the non-military production of pilots by the general aviation sector of the industry. During the course of the investigation, it became apparent that sufficiently detailed and reliable information upon which to base long- range projections was not available. In some instances, desirable military data are classified or would not be available in sufficient detail until completion of the installation of electronic data processing equipment. Likewise, the security surrounding military plans and the geographical dispersion of the general aviation training facilities prevented conducting personal interviews to overcome these data problems. Considerable reliance must be placed on appropriate evaluation of under- lying factors, which required detailed data, to accurately forecast for long periods. Consequently, although the forecasts developed in this part of the report are developed through 1980, they should be considered as estimated trends and levels beyond 1970. To make maximum use of the data that are available, as well as provide insights into the capacity required for producing trained pilots, the concept of a "critical production level" was developed. This level is the minimum number of issuances of commercial pilot ratings, supplementing military releases, required to avoid a pilot supply crisis. By utilizing this critical production level, it was not necessary to develop detailed forecasts of commercial certificate issuances. It was necessary only to determine whether or not the issuances would exceed the critical level in order to judge the national capacity to produce adequate numbers of new pilots. 1-118 Military Pilot Training and Releases The determination of the number of future civilian pilot applicants with military training was divided into an examination of the past and anticipated pilot training levels and releases. The military, historically, has been an important source of pilots for the civil air carriers, as well as for general aviation. In 1964, 58.5% of the civil air carrier industry's pilots received their principal training in the military. *•' The corresponding figure for business aircraft operators was 47.8% and, for non-military state and federal government pilots, it was 64.9%. "o The portion of new civil air carrier pilots with military training has been going down. It changed from 64.3% of the new hires in 1955 to 44.5% in 1963. The situation in 1966 was somewhat different, in that 63.4% of the new hires were military trained, which raised the percentage of all military- trained pilots in the civil air carriers that year to 64.7%. 1-30 This reversal of the downward trend was, in part, attributed to increased military pilot releases due to the war in Viet Nam. The military has undertaken a number of steps to decrease the number of releases, in order to meet their commitments until sufficient replacements could be trained. Despite this apparent reversal of the trend, the airlines have complained that the supply of military pilots is declining in general, causing increased difficulty in satisfying their demand for pilots. Indeed, the inventory of pilots in the military has decreased. In the U. S. Air Force alone, the number of available pilots declined nearly 10,000 between June 1961 and March 1967. "2 This reduction in available personnel, coupled with an increasing resignation rate, was the cause of grave concern to the services. One result was that the needs of Viet Nam were being met at the expense of desirable manning levels in other locations around the globe. - ) - > 12 ?FAA Project Long Look , op. cit. , p. 87. 128 Ibid. , p. 88. 12 9 Ibid. , p. 88. iJU ATA unpublished memorandum dated 25 February 1966, op. cit. 131 Brown, David A., "Military Pilot Shortage, Parts 1 & 2" , Aviation Week and Space Technology , 8 May 1967, p. 66, and 15 May 1967, p. 94. 132 Brown, op_^ cit. , 15 May 1967, p. 97. ■'■""Pilot Shortage Serious; Will Get Worse", Journal of the Armed Forces , 6 May 1967, p. 1. 1-119 As a consequence of this situation, the services have taken action to increase their training rate substantially. The training rate has been slated to increase from slightly over 5,000 men per year to slightly more than 13,500 between fiscal 1966 and 1968. T- 34 The past and projected training and release rates of military pilots are summarized in Figures 1-49 and 1-50. l->5 ihe num ber of pilots released each year increased during the first half of 1960 and were somewhat higher than the number of pilots being trained, explaining the depletion in total inventory of available military pilots. The projections for pilot releases were based on the pilot retention rate, allowing four years for the training increases to materially affect the active inventory-'- 3 " and five years for the nominal duty obligation of a pilot. ■*-->/ The retention rate as a percentage of new pilots for all services was a little less than 10% of the pilots trained in 1966 and the programs initiated by the services were expected to stabilize, if not improve, the retention rate during the latter part of the I960' s. 138 Military pilot attrition from all other causes was assumed to remain constant at 5°L for the forecast period. The resultant forecast shows a relatively constant number of releases until 1970. This reflects the stabilized resignation rate and the lag between training commitment and effect in the field. By 1971, the number of releases is expected to increase as the first of the new pilots from the increased training levels reach the field. These new pilots will replace some of those on active duty who have been assigned extended tours and extremely long hours in order to meet the commitments of the services and, thus, would be inclined to leave rather than "re-up" for another tour. The rate was increased again the following year to reflect the end of the five- year obligation of some of the first pilots trained under the increased training rates. The release rate is expected to stabilize at about 8,600 per year after 1975, barring major changes in the world situation and/or training rates. 134-u. s. Department of Defense, Fiscal Years 1968-1972 Defense Program and 1968 Defense Budget (Washington, D.C.: 23 January 1967). l-'-'From personnel records, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense - Manpower, Washington, D.C. l^Brown, op. cit. , Part 2. The U.S. Air Force plans on 18 months to activate bases and acquire aircraft, 12 months to train initial staff (or replace borrowed staff) , and the remaining 18 months for training and deploying the first pilots. 137 Ibid. , Part 1. 138 Ibid. , Part 1. 1-120 MILITARY PILOT TRAINING AND RELEASES ALL MILITARY SERVICES Year Pilots Trained Pilots Released Calendar Calendar Fiscal Year Year Fiscal Year Year Actual Estimate 3,900 Actual Estimate 1960 4 ,128 3 ,883 3,900 1961 3 ,887 3,650 4 ,016 3 , 900 1962 3 ,215 3,550 3 ,803 4,350 1963 3 ,926 4,200 4 ,943 5,150 1964 4 ,518 4,800 5 ,230 5,800 1965 5 ,103 5,200 6 ,389 6,300 1966 5 ,332 7,100 6 ,258 6,500 Forecast ■ - Calendar Year 1967 11,100 6,400 1968 13,517 6,400 1969 13,517 6,500 1970 13,517 6,600 1971 13,517 7,600 1972 13,517 8,300 1973 13,517 8,400 1974 13,517 8,500 1975 13,517 8,500 1976 13,517 8,600 1977 13,517 8,600 1978 13,517 8,600 1979 13,517 8,600 1980 13,517 8,600 Figure 1-49 1-121 T3 0) W 0) i—i QJ Pi QJ c •H U H 1 \ \ \ \ 1 \ \ 1 1 1 . / CO CO CJ CD U O V \ X. •v S t— 1 \ 3 i/ / ■ o m in M VJD ON CD 1—1 U J-i rt 3 ■D t>C >- •H o ^D ON o ON o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Q o 0O vO o o o 1-122 A difficult problem, given the available data, is that of determining the number of these releases who actually would qualify for civil or general aviation professional pilot jobs. For the civil air carriers, the maximum new hire pilot age is 35, y although it is higher in general aviation. For example, in 1964 two out of three of the federal government non-military new hires were over 40 years old. 140 The applicants must also be physically fit and pass a series of screening examinations by the employer. An estimate that approximately 70% of the military releases (excluding the disabled) were potential civil or general aviation pilots was made in a FAA study. 141 To validate this estimate, the ages of released pilots were reviewed. It is doubtful that the ages of pilots with more than 14 years of service would qualify them for civilian pilot jobs. Of the U. S. Air Force releases during 1966, approximately 797o had less than 14 years of service. The corresponding figure for the U. S. Navy and Marine Corps was approximately 75%. 14^ These figures include the disabled, so they must be reduced somewhat to allow for those who would not be physically qualified. Since no reliable data were available on disabled releases and the FAA estimate of 70% is less than the per cent with fewer than 14 years of service, it was used in this study to represent the portion of total military releases who would qualify as civilian pilot applicants. A factor that is important in determining non-military pilot production is the large portion of military-trained men who got their commercial pilot certificates before going on active duty. The percentage is difficult to estimate exactly because the FAA record of pilot certifications does not make this distinction. Another factor, accentuated in a war situation, is the portion of men who receive their training and certificates from non-military schools but are then drafted or volunteer for military service. They are not available to the civilian aviation industry until after their tour of duty. The men so affected are likely few in number because those who have an interest in flying and are of draft age have the choice of joining a service to get their flight training. For the purposes of this study, the latter category of persons is considered negligible. The portion of military- trained pilots who get commercial certificates before going on active duty is estimated to be 607>. 139 "What the Airlines Need in New Flight Personnel", op. cit. , p. 21. 140 FAA Project Long Look , op. cit. , p. 85. 141 Ibid. , p. 91. From military personnel records, op. cit. 1-123 Non-Military Commercial Pilot Certification To determine the non-military production of pilots, FAA issuances of commercial pilot certificates were studied. This represents the minimum certification for civilian aviation industry professional pilots. iqo Some pilots get their air transport rating before taking a job in the industry, but it is considerably more common that they get this rating after accumulating hours on the job. An instrument rating is required by most civil air carriers, but, if the applicant did not get this rating when he got his commercial certificate, this is often a part of the initial training by the carrier. The certificated route air carriers generally require that a pilot applicant have a minimum of 500 to 2,000 hours of experience in addition to these ratings. *&A There are jobs available in general aviation to the pilot who has just received his commercial pilot certificate. In such cases, the pilot may fly for a period of time in general aviation to accumulate experience toward a job with one of the certificated carriers. The time lag, while the pilot is gaining experience in general aviation, is not a factor in this study, since the general aviation requirements are considered in the overall demand for pilots. The summary of commercial certificate issues and the inventory of active commercial certificates are presented in Figures 1-51 and 1-52. It is noted that a substantial increase in commercial pilot certificate issuances has occurred since 1964. In order to determine whether or not this is the trend for the future, it is necessary to consider the number of flight schools and flight instructors that are available, as shown in Figures 1-53 and 1-54. The number of certificated flight schools has been growing since 1960, as has the number of flight instructors. 1*5 There was some indication that the facilities were near saturation in 1966 and 143atA unpublished survey dated January 1967, op. cit . 144 Ibid. ■^-'Of the 14,210 commercial certificates issued in 1966, correspondence with the FAA indicates that only 4,342 "graduated" from FAA certified schools. The reason is that there is no incentive for a certificated school to sponsor a student for his rating check. If he fails, the school gets a black mark and, if he passes, it is only as it should be. Therefore, the common practice is to let the student take the exam on his own after putting him in touch with a FAA examiner. 1-124 COMMERCIAL PILOT CERTIFICATES ISSUED AND ACTIVE Year Issued Active 1959 5,956 93,815 1960 5,952 89,904 1961 5,517 92,976 1962 5,359 96,047 1963 6,279 96,341 1964 8,772 108,428 1965 11,043 116,665 1966 14,210 Figure 1-51 1-125 ISSUED AND ACTIVE COMMERCIAL PILOT CERTIFICATES 120,000 100,000 80,000 V) CD i-i CJ .2 60,000 o u 0) o o 40,000 20,000 Active Issued 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 1-52 1-126 FAA CERTIFICATED PILOT SCHOOLS, ACTIVE FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR CERTIFICATES, AND FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR CERTIFICATES ISSUED Certificated Date Pilot Schools 1959 895 1960 895 1961 902 1962 984 1963 1,040 1964 1,108 1965 1,182 1966 1,365 Active Issued Flight Instructor Flight Instructor Certificates Certificates Figure 1-53 26,753 1,465 31,459 2,099 30,165 1,716 28,873 4,047 29,618 2,299 32,158 2,412 34,904 3,255 4,047 1-127 FAA CERTIFICATED PILOT SCHOOLS AND ACTIVE AND ISSUED FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR CERTIFICATES 35,000 Active F/I Certificates 30,000 25,000 ■ 4,000 " F/I Certificates Issued 2,000 Certificated Pilot Schools 1958 1960 1962 1964 Year 1966 1968 Figure 1-54 1-128 any increases in the production of commercial certificates will likely require additional schools and instructors. Some increases can be expected as additional students start their flight training. The significant question is how much production is necessary and will there be continued shortages. That question will be discussed after describing the commercial certificate holder in some detail. Not all the men who are certified as commercial pilots are employable as professional pilots in civilian aviation. The question of experience, which was raised earlier, may limit the choices of a potential pilot. Another factor which decreases the number available to the aviation industry is the number of pilots who fly for pleasure only or only occasionally for business reasons. They may obtain their commercial ratings with no intention of seeking employment as professional pilots. No reliable estimate of the number of such cases exists but, in general, they can be assumed to be some of the older men who receive their ratings. This older group very probably accounts for the majority of the men^' who would not seek professional employment as pilots. In 1963, 75% of the new issuances of commercial certificates went to men under 44 years of age.-*-^° This estimate, assuming the age distribution of those who get their commercial certificates remains constant, was used to define the portion of the new issuances who would be potential applicants in civil aviation. Even though the certificated route air carriers require that pilot applicants be 35 years old or younger, the older men would take jobs in general aviation. For that reason, in this study all individuals younger than 45 who get their commercial certificates are considered potential professional pilots. In actual hiring practice, the civil aviation industry attempts to hire military releases and young commercial certificate holders with flying experience. The low-experience or older pilots turn to general aviation. The employable pilot supply in any year was found by applying the 75% factor to the new commercial certificate issuances, subtracting those who were military trained, and adding the military releases for that year. The Critical Production Level of Commercial Certificates The minimum level of production of commercial certificates must be sufficient to just equal the demand for new hires in the civil aviation 14-6c essna Aircraft discontinued a national advertising campaign in late 1966 due to pressure from their distributors who were complaining of lack of instructors and time to meet the demand. l^'Only about 1% of the commercial certificate holders are women. 148 F AA Project Long Look , op. cit. , p. 132. 1-129 industry each year when adjusted for unqualified professional pilots, military pilots and releases. This level is defined as the critical production level for this study. It does not allow for any buildup of pilot capacity for emergencies or unexpected surges in demand. To validate this concept, the actual past demand for new hire pilots was compared to the supply available. The estimates of past general aviation new hires were made by applying the ratio of new hires to fleet increases to past actual fleet size changes. Those for the civil air carriers were based on changes in actual employment plus replacement requirements for annual industry losses. The supply of employable pilots was developed using the factors presented in the preceding sections. These figures are summarized in Figure 1-55 and are plotted, along with forecast demand for civilian pilots, in Figure 1-56. These indicate that, in the past, the supply of new pilots greatly exceeded the demand until 1965 when they were nearly equal. In 1966, the demand exceeded the supply. The years 1965 and 1966 posed serious problems for the industry regarding pilot recruiting. The "pilot shortage crisis" of this period was discussed at length in the first part of this section. 14-9 As further evidence of the problem, some of the comments by airline personnel who were directly involved in the hiring of pilots during that period are quoted below. The comments were in response to the question, "Was there a difficulty (in hiring) or shortage of qualified applicants (for pilot openings) in 1965?", on an Air Transport Association of America questionnaire. 150 "Yes. Greater expenditures for interviews and advertising. Up 30% over 1964." "Yes. Shortage experienced in all categories ." "Yes. Compared with a decade ago." The responses to this question, during personal interviews in 1966, indicated even greater difficulties were encountered in that year. This was to be expected from the unfavorable ratio of supply to demand for new pilots. It is apparent from the reaction to the situation in 1965-66 that at least the critical non-military production level of pilots must be maintained to prevent a similar crisis in the future. 1 ^ 9 See also: Wright, W., "Trunklines Press Pilot Recruiting Effort", Aviation Week and Space Technology , 31 January 1966, p. 35; or Ruppenthal, Karl M., "The Pilot Shortage", The Nation , 7 November 1966, p. 481. - )U ATA special questionnaire, Personnel Relations Conference Division, 25 February 1966. 1-130 PAST ACTUAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF CIVILIAN PROFESSIONAL PILOTS Supply Demand General Civil Year Military Non-Military Total Total Aviation Aviation 1960 2,730 2,120 4,850 953 1,890 -937 1961 2,730 1,950 4,680 3,182 2,030 1,152 1962 3,040 1,900 4,940 3,394 2,170 224 1963 3,600 2,190 5,790 2,796 2,100 696 1964 4,050 3,710 7,760 3,825 2,310 1,515 1965 4,410 5,180 9,590 8,539 5,630 2,909 1966 4,550 6,440 10,990 12,179 5,697 6,482 Figure 1-55 1-131 in CTv o in m 0> 60 •H O m m ON o o o o o 8 o O o o o o o o o o o * ft n 9% ^ •* CNJ o oo vO u m Cd i 0) H fH 0) 1-4 3 O 00 «X3 •H On Pn to m o m o o o o LO o o o 3 o o n o en o o o O O O o sa^BoxjT^aao 30-r.JJ "[BTOJcaimiioo 1-136 Maintaining an Adequate Supply It has been shown that the influence of the stepped-up military pilot production will not affect the supply of employable pilots until after 1970. The burden, therefore, of producing an adequate supply rests with the non-military flight schools of the nation. In comparing the required minimum issuances of commercial certificates with historical issuances, it is clear that the current number of schools and instructors are, at best, only marginally sufficient for meeting the need. In order to continue the growth and to maintain the levels of quality necessary, it is likely that more schools and instructors will be needed. Since the demand in 1965 and 1966 probably eliminated the national reservoir of commercially certificated pilots, additional training capacity would be useful to produce quantities great enough to replenish this resource. A greater supply of new pilots would be valuable also in providing the industry with greater selectivity to meet their needs and in assuring the quality levels necessary to maintain the standard of safety required by the industry. An argument for increasing the level of pilot production to something above the bare minimum is that of establishing and maintaining a reservoir for emergencies. Apparently, this reservoir was essential and nearly depleted in providing a sufficient number of pilots in the Viet Nam situation. The transportation sector of the United States has traditionally maintained adequate capacity to support a military or other national emergency. The ability of the aviation sector to maintain this capacity is dependent upon trained pilots. The increasing need for pilots throughout the period to 1980 indicates that there is little danger of over-production, even with the future increase in military pilot training. Traditionally, the major trunk carriers have had several applicants for each pilot opening. 152 j n 1965, there were approximately ten applicants for each opening at any single airline, but these applicants were likewise looking elsewhere. -* In 1966, the airline officials say that ratio dropped considerably, in some cases to as low as 5 to 1.154 The reason employers desire a high ratio of applicants to vacancies is to insure hiring the kind of pilots they desire. They must find applicants with the essential subjective qualities that would fit with their current pilots, as well as flying skill. The compatibility of the crew members is extremely important to the functioning of the crew and, hence, the safety of the flight. This is another argument for increasing pilot production to levels at least somewhat above the critical production level. 1-* It has been estimated that after the Korean War there were as many as 100 employable pilots for each job opening. In that case, there were many that dropped out of the flying force. Ruppenthal, op. cit. , p. 482. 153a.tA special questionnaire, op. cit. Personal interviews. 1-137 Conclusions On the basis of the data collected and analyzed, as presented in this section of the report, it is concluded that: 1. Revenue passenger mile operations for U.S. civil air carriers will increase from 76 billion passenger miles in 1965 to 315 billion passenger miles in 1980. 2. Revenue cargo ton-mile operations for U.S. civil air carriers will increase from 3.1 billion ton-miles in 1965 to 38.1 billion ton-miles in 1980. 3. The U.S. civil air carrier aircraft fleet will grow from 2,125 aircraft in 1965 to slightly over 3,000 aircraft in 1980. 4. Improvements in air traffic control and in passenger and cargo handling facilities will be made in time to support the projected growth rates, i.e., the growth rates will not be limited by these factors. 5. Financing of new equipment for U.S. air carriers will not be a limiting factor in growth during the period 1965-1980. 6. Competition from high-speed ground transportation systems will not be a limiting factor for the growth of civil air carrier operations during the period 1965-1980. 7. Tourist facilities, international documentation, and customs procedures will not be a limiting factor to the growth of the international operations of U.S. air carriers. 8. The projected growth rates are attainable and the historical relationships between aircraft and mixtures of crew complements will hold for the period 1965-1980. 9. The employment of civil air carrier aircraft cockpit crew members will increase from 22,972 in 1965 to 43,665 in 1980. 10. The cumulative requirement for civil air carrier new hire cockpit crew members will be 35,906 for the period 1965-1980. 11. The civil air carrier mechanic work force will increase from 43,667 in 1965 to 80,224 in 1980. 12. The cumulative requirements for civil air carrier mechanics will be 95,392 during the period 1965-1980. 1-138 13. The general aviation aircraft fleet will increase from slightly over 104,000 aircraft at year-end 1966 to 315,000 by 1980. 14. The number of flight hours flown annually by general aviation aircraft will increase from 16.7 million flight hours in 1965 to 63 million flight hours in 1980. 15. The number of commercial pilots in general aviation will increase from 48,760 in 1965 to a minimum of 184,750 in 1980. 16. The cumulative requirements for commercial pilots in general aviation for the period 1965-1980 will be 182,075. 17. The number of mechanics in general aviation will increase from 40,000 in 1965 to 120,000 in 1980. 18. The cumulative requirements for mechanics in general aviation during the period 1965-1980 will be 138,483. 19. The increase in production of pilots by the military services will not influence the current release rate markedly until 1970. (The release rate could be drastically reduced through a freeze by the Department of Defense.) 20. The demand for commercial pilots through 1980 indicates a market for trained military releases, but the degree of supplementation required from non-military sources cannot be determined more exactly until better projections of the military releases are available. 21. The demand for commercial pilots during the past few years has been met by reducing the national reservoir of available commercially certificated pilots. 22. The cumulative needs of the civil air carriers and general aviation for over 220,000 commercially certificated pilots between 1965 and 1980 is beyond the capability of current training outputs of both civil training production and military releases. 23. An increase in training activity to meet the cumulative needs for professionally trained pilots, as cited herein, for the period to 1980 will pose little danger to overproduction, even with the increase in military pilot training. 24. Substantial increases in training activity will be required to meet the cumulative mechanic needs of the total industry (233,875 between 1965-1980). 1-139 25. The mathematical model developed for use in predicting civil air carrier pilot and mechanic requirements is a very useful tool and can be used industry-wide or for single carrier predictions. 26. The analysis of growth and personnel requirements, as presented herein, is a valid assessment of the aviation industry's needs between 1965 and 1980. 27. There is an urgent requirement for an aviation data repository for use by all segments of aviation. 28. Shortages of other skills in aviation are developing and they should be studied in-depth, similar to the pilot and mechanic studies. 1-140 Recommendations On the basis of the information developed and analyzed in this Section of the report and the conclusions set forth above, it is recommended that: 1. Because of the difficulties experienced in assembling the data necessary for analyzing future personnel requirements, particularly in the general aviation segment, a data center should be established with continuous inputs provided by every segment of the industry. 2. The mathematical model developed for predicting air carrier pilot and mechanic requirements be further developed and utilized in connection with recommendation "1" above. The model could also be expanded for use in general aviation and with other modes of transportation. 3. Methods be developed for improving the forecasting of military releases. 4. Studies be made of all new hire mechanics and pilots for the past ten or twenty years to develop a better understanding of the shifting of personnel between companies, military and civilian operations, general aviation and the air carriers, and different regions of the nation. 5. A detailed study be made of organizations training pilots and mechanics to determine both the quantitative and qualitative production of these skills for the future. 6. Studies be made of personal flying activities, along with other skill requirements in the aviation industry beyond those of pilots and mechanics. During this study, some of these skills were identified but not studied in any depth. 7. Full consideration be given to the establishment and operation of an aviation training center, as described and discussed in this report. Such a center would help meet some of the quantitative requirements for the aviation industry, as well as some of the qualitative requirements discussed in other sections of the report. 1-141 SECTION II CURRICULUM STUDY Introduction This section of the Feasibility Study report presents the results of a curriculum requirements study which was undertaken as one task of the overall study. The curriculum study was undertaken for the purpose of developing proposed pilot and aviation maintenance curricula which would satisfy the current and emerging skills and knowledge requirements of the aviation industry, i.e., curricula which would result in upgrading the professionalism of the aviation maintenance technician and pilot. The study was conducted in coordination with the airlines, aircraft manufacturers, pilot groups, maintenance experts, general aviation organizations, and regulatory agencies to assure that the curricula outlines included the real needs and requirements of the industry. In January 1967, a conference was held at Arizona State University to appraise representatives of the objectives of the Feasibility Study and to request their assistance in providing certain input data. The conference was attended by approximately sixty-two representatives of the industry. •*■ During the second day of the conference, a workshop was conducted on the subject of curricula development for skilled aviation personnel. The general results of the workshop are set forth below. The broad objectives of the workshop were the establishment of the data requirements and the procedures for the acquisition of data which would permit the development of curricula outlines for the subjects required in a future aviation training program. The Allen study^, which defines in detail the job specification of the aviation mechanic, was introduced and discussed. It was pointed out that the project study team Proceedings - Arizona State University/Industry Conference on Aviation Training Feasibility Study, 16-17 January 1967 , Arizona State University, Division of Industrial Design & Technology, Tempe , Arizona, January 1967. o Allen, David, and associates, A National Study of the Aviation Mechanics Occupation , Division of Vocational Education, University of California at Los Angeles; Bureau of Industrial Education, California State Department of Education; U. S. Office of Education, 1966. II-l was considering use of the Allen study as a guide and reference in the curriculum study. The initial discussion was to have been concerned with the mechanics occupation only; however, it is believed that some of the statements were intended to be applicable to both pilots and mechanics. Comments from the participants were as follows: 1. The Allen study is excellent; the best work done on this subject in twenty-five years. 2. The fill value of the Allen study will be realized only as FAA certification standards are revised and updated to mater progress in definition and understanding of the job specifications. 3. Certification should be dependent upon achievement and demonstrated competence rather than upon hours spent in the classroom. 4. Better defined standards of competence and greatly improved measurement techniques should be important objectives in upgrading and revising curricula. Improved testing techniques are required to make sure that achievement is honestly and accurately measured. 5. More quality is needed in mechanic's curricula. Aviation trade schools are fulfilling industry's quantity requirements but not its quality requirements. 6. There is an increasing need for aviation personnel with broad educational backgrounds and the ability to make sound decisions based on knowledge. 7. In addition to providing an airframe and powerplant mechanics license, the mechanic's curricula should facilitate follow-on transition into courses of further academic study in allied career fields. 8. Additional emphasis is needed on curricula that will help the individual adapt to life. 9. In addition to review of the proposed mechanic's curricula by airline and general aviation management, it was recommended that the curricula be reviewed by line mechanics and by labor unions. II-2 10. Aviation orientation and familiarization courses should be included in curricula offered by colleges of education to prospective secondary school educators 11. Industry should provide scholarships for technical education and training in aviation. On the basis of the foregoing, it appeared that it might be advantageous to replace the word "mechanic" with the word "technician" in the field of aviation and to upgrade the curricula for training technicians to the extent that academic credit could be allowed. Precedent for this exists in the field of medicine. The upgraded curricula, coupled with general education training, could achieve some of the goals indicated in the foregoing comments. The current Arizona State University Aeronautical Technology program, which includes pilot training, is a four-year baccalaureate program. Tentative plans were discussed for revising this program to provide for other options, including aviation management courses and other non-flight skills. For curricula design, the project team proposed a procedure generally following the Allen study procedure to obtain core curricula material from a representative sample of the aviation community. Comments from the participants were as follows: 1. Air carrier pilot selection criteria should be carefully considered in curricula design. It should be recognized that factors, such as performance under stress and emotional stability, play a critical part in air carrier pilot selection. 2. The pilot's curriculum should be enriched substantially beyond job specification knowledge and skill requirements. Personality and attitudinal development curricula should receive suitable considerations. 3. It was noted that in a collegiate pilot curriculum, flight training, while significant, may be less important than the overall academic educational benefit. 4. The curriculum should offer courses in business management and principles of instruction and others in the socio, political, and economic spectrum. 5. There is a need for a study of the pilot's occupation patterned after the Allen study of the mechanic's occupation. 6. There is a need for an interpretation study of available data on psychological factors in pilot performance. II-3 In summary, the conferees of the workshop expressed a desire for a broad career specification as opposed to a narrow job specification applicable to both the pilot and mechanic occupations. Efforts should be applied to broadening the curricula to include subjects which increase individual flexibility, versatility, and growth. During the conference, the various industry representatives also agreed to participate with the study team to the maximum extent possible in providing input information and any other assistance of value to the study. The study details were then developed and the study was conducted as described in the discussions which follow. Assumptions In preparation for the conduct of the curriculum study, a number of assumptions were made, as follows: 1. That the personnel needs identified in Section I of this report are a valid assessment of the quantitative needs of the industry. 2. That the educational institutions of the nation currently engaged in training mechanics and pilots cannot produce the quantities of skilled manpower required in the next fifteen years . 3. That technological advances in the aviation industry will continue to create new qualitative demands of personnel that cannot be met by traditional education/training methods and curriculum designs. 4. That the application of educational technology to aviation education will be required to meet future quantitative and qualitative personnel requirements for selected aviation occupations. 5. That, while the quantitative requirements forecasted for pilots and mechanics were properly within the scope of this Feasibility Study, in-depth task analysis approaches to curriculum design for these two occupations were not encompassed in the scope as either one would constitute investigations of several times the magnitude of resources of the Feasibility Study. 6. That the recently completed task-oriented study of the mechanic's occupation by the Allen team is valid and that, with appropriate treatment of its findings with respect to the future, the results will provide a very excellent base for a curriculum proposal. II-4 7. That, in the absence of a task analysis of the occupation of professional pilot and the preclusion of executing it in the scope of the present study, alternative and modified techniques could, nevertheless, be utilized to achieve a greatly improved curriculum design. 8. That an entirely separate, but parallel, in-depth joint research of Arizona State University and the General Learning Corporation-' in the application of educational technology to electronics will contribute directly to the proposed aviation training center and its aviation curriculum development based upon task analysis. Methodology The methodology utilized in the conduct of the curriculum study derives from the assumptions stated above and included: 1. A survey of current research efforts in curriculum design and development for pilots and mechanics. 2. A polling of industry through visits and correspondence to determine emerging needs developing because of advancements in technology. 3. An examination of curricula offerings of selected FAA certificated training programs. 4. An in-depth examination of current and proposed Arizona State University curricula related to both the pilot and maintenance technician tasks. 5. A comparison of all data acquired under 1 through 4 above. 6. Preparation of outlines for proposed curricula. 7. A detailed analysis of new emerging educational technologies and the implications and potential for aviation training. 3 The General Learning Corporation is a relatively new corporation in the field of educational materials and systems development. The organization was established jointly by the General Electric Company and Time, Incorporated late in 1965. II-5 Maintenance Technician Curriculum The intent of the Feasibility Study may be usefully reviewed at this point to clarify the curriculum development procedures and the decisions made relative thereto. The objective of the Feasibility Study, as it relates to curriculum, was, after proper quantitative forecasting, to derive a qualitative curriculum proposal which would be suitable for the proposed aviation training center. Other related and important considerations beyond the Feasibility Study and beyond the derivation of a proposed curriculum also exist. Specifically, the method of implementation is of vital importance. It was the basic assumption of the project staff that the application of new educational technologies to maintenance technician training promises the greatest qualitative "quantum leap" for aviation education when developed, implemented, and validated in the proposed center and disseminated to other institutions engaged in training activities. It should be fully realized that a task-oriented analysis, such as the Allen study, is a prerequisite for the very extensive development of instructional materials suitable for i:he multi-media, computer-assisted approach typical of educational techno Logy. Thus, the existence of such a task-oriented aviation mechanic anc lysis, together with the necessity for such an analysis, obviates traditional approaches to deriving a proposed curriculum. Because of the very extensive and refined research which the Allen study represents with its findings and the resultant core curriculum recommendation for aviation mechanics (technicians) and its obvious compatibility with future education technology developments, it was used as a basis and guide to the development of both the maintenance technician and pilot curriculum outlines. Allen Study : During the past two years, Dr. David Allen and his associates at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) conducted a comprehensive study of the aviation mechanics occupation. A report on the subject was published in mid-1966. 4 The national survey was undertaken to provide data for the accomplishment of three objectives: 1. To investigate the technical knowledge and manipulative skills of aviation mechanics as required by the aviation industry. 2. To identify a core curriculum for the training of aviation mechanics. 3. To identify the scope of training offered by industry. 4 A National Study of the Aviation Mechanics Occupation , op. cit. II-6 Only aviation companies employing Federal Aviation Agency certified airframe and/or powerplant mechanics were included in the study. The assumptions for the study were: 1. That all manipulative skills require some technical knowledge but not all technical knowledge requires manipulative skills. 2. That all training in aviation mechanic schools will develop the mechanic's manipulative skills, so that he will be able to perform (in industry) work of return- to-flight quality. Based on inputs secured directly from key aviation maintenance personnel representing airline line stations, airline overhaul stations, and large and small general aviation companies, the Allen team was able to identify the major work tasks and sub- tasks which are associated with the mechanic's daily on-the-job performance. The major work tasks identified were fifty-two (52) in number and are set forth in the block on the left side of Figure II-l under the heading "Task Identification". The survey was also designed to provide answers to five specific questions: 1. The number ("N") of men performing each task, 2. The frequency ("F") at which these men performed the task, 3. The level of technical knowledge ("T/K") required to do each task, 4. The conditions (time/skill/ job planning) under which the return-to-flight manipulative skills ("M") had to be performed, and 5. The depth of training conducted by_ industry ("I"). 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X) u u !-i toO toO CO CO as as CO CO a. n$ 4-1 d ■H J-4 -H o o O J-4 d d u •H d M T3 CO •H QJ o • CU QJ K O CO 4-J 4-1 4-1 QJ •H •H QJ U bO 0) 0) d QJ Q Q d O •H 4-1 CO QJ cj CJ CJ toO d d bO 4-> bO m T3 o > d QJ •H J-1 0) QJ cu c ft !-< U !-t d crj cti d ft SJ •H d g u 6 co .£3 3 Tj ■H •H •r-l ai J-i r-l cS 3 as as O ft fe < g CO C c Z 33 U w H o H H < - Q Pi C CO I pi M § CO O w o H CO pi Pd O ro W H CO a >- > w 3 Pi <^ Cfl < H JJU IT. w 25 w < :-' r -^ P5 A V en hJ / co < / Q CO Pi H h4 -> H B W co 0) CO O .J o Pi W T, W a ! H Pi ■u cu -> o Pi H Pi H s a CO w CO cfl M CO 5! h4 O ,J T3 w Pi Ph ! M > U H Pi S 1 33 o-S H H i Z ,— ^ ^ W CO 2S O 2 q O < B 2 H PQ o w co o <; u t— ia z w > h 3 Pi W P^ s ^ / s o CO < ^S PQ O PC Q H W W 12 Lrf PC Pn < W -1 I A -/- H ^-n S Pi Pi W O m S i -1 & m > < oi < H CO W J <; fq H ^ £ CO >■ CO >■ O O u w H 2 O O H M CO h <: <; cq pi Pm P-< o £ o z o o "-^ w Ph o U ■H u 03 0.' \/ CO •H XI fll e 0) x: 4-> TJ CO IW 4-J o CD , ■rA c T1 CO C e u ■H (1) en en c en O- 0) ^ -p n p. o O o o o 11-38 and efforts to the task of creating new aviation curricula and education technology, they may be able to set the pace that others may follow. These joint activities, coupled with immediate and widespread dissemination of findings, could result in the solution of both the quantitative and qualitative requirements of the industry on a national basis. What is needed is not just more of the contemporary air colleges and fixed- base flight training operations but rather a comprehensive, efficient, total academic/vocational/technical curriculum development program combined with an equally comprehensive developmental program for new educational technologies. These efforts should be designed from the start to be responsive to the requirements of the aviation industry. 11-39 Conclusions The major conclusions derived from an analysis of current aviation training activities and the potential for new education technology and its role in these activities were as follows: 1. Relatively little research has been executed which relates to pilot and mechanic qualitative curriculum design and its operational effectiveness. This is also true for other aviation curricula. 2. The one exception is the Allen study of the aviation mechanic's occupation. This is an excellent study; the best work done in twenty- five years. 3. A comprehensive, qualitative research program utilizing a variety of methodologies is greatly needed in a broad variety of important aspects of aviation education. 4. An extraordinary array of courses (subjects) are offered within the pilot and mechanic training programs of the selected FAA certificated institutions. 5. Although the literature of the selected FAA certificated institutions did not overtly identify the tasks covered within a subject, there was a rather consistent thread of continuity within all curricula. 6. In response to the findings and recommendations for the revision of core curriculum and the teaching levels of the aviation mechanic curriculum, as presented in the Allen study, the Federal Aviation Administration has proposed a quantitative revision upwards for the total hours of instruction required. 7. Instructional time in terms of clock hours, despite its limitations as a qualitative standard of proficiency, remains as the "core logic" of curriculum design in institutions involved in aviation education. 8. Certification should be dependent upon achievement and demonstrated competence rather than hours spent in a classroom. 11-40 9. Better defined standards of competence and improved measurement techniques for achievement should be important objectives in upgrading and revising curricula. 10. In addition to providing FAA certification, the aviation maintenance technician's curricula should facilitate follow- on transition into courses of further academic study in allied career fields. 11. The pilot's curriculum should be enriched substantially beyond job specification knowledge and skill requirements. Personality and attitudinal development courses should be given consideration. 12. There is a requirement for a study of the pilot's occupation patterned after the Allen study of the mechanic's occupation. 13. The proposed pilot and maintenance technician curricula derived from this study represent qualitative improvement over existing curricula primarily in their assessment and provisions for meeting emerging needs. 14. While representing substantial improvement, the maximazation of efficiency in aviation curricula design can occur only when the required further research identified in the recommendations is performed and when such curricula are operationally implemented with newer educational technology. 15. Task-oriented curricula, despite a great deal of discussion of "terminal behavior", is a relatively new concept at the college and university level. In trying to "fit" university subjects and courses to precise tasks, the accommodation factor necessarily had an intrinsic resiliency. 16. The implementation of curricula via educational technology is currently feasible from a technical viewpoint. 17. The joint Arizona State University/General Learning Corporation research effort in vocational/technical curriculum development based on a computer-aided multi-media approach will provide great assistance and impetus to the application of technology to aviation education. 11-41 Recommendations On the basis of the information contained in this Section of the report and the conclusions presented above, it is recommended that: 1. Full consideration be given to the implementation of the proposed pilot and aviation maintenance technician curricula as the nucleus of a future and broader aviation occupational group of curricula, and that such implementation be considered in the concept of the aviation training center, as explored in this study. 2. Concentrated efforts be made to initiate an organized aviation education research program to attack vital problems, some of which are: A. Pilot Task Analysis (Terminal Behavior Analysis) : A study, comparable in depth and duration, is needed to ascertain civilian pilot tasks in terms of what a pilot does and the sequence in which he does it; the relevance of tasks, one to another; the priority of learning sequence of tasks he performs; the frequency with which he performs tasks; and the degrees of manipulative skills required of specific tasks. B. Relevance of FAA Certification Requirements (Especially in the Area of Aviation Mechanics to the Daily Job Performance in the Current and Emerging Aeronautical Industry) : More attention should be given to the possibility of FAA "specialist certification; enabling the vocational training of qualified manpower who can work under the direction and supervision of FAA certified supervisors, thus helping to meet some of the projected industry manpower needs. A study should also be made of the relevance of quantitative measures of training to qualitative measures of performance. C. The Relevance of Current and Proposed Aeronautical Technology Curricula to Professional Terminal Behavior : Quantitative research is needed to identify precisely what various aviation industry jobs require behavioristically and how a particular behavior might be optimally derived (acquired to the highest level of acceptable performance in the shortest period of time). This research effort could, at the same time, study the relevance of position guides, organizational structure as it affects actual daily operational behavior and the human acts involved in conducting the job. Subsequently, the curriculum design would stipulate objectives for producing that behavior. 11-42 D. The Operational Proficiency of Certificated Aviation Mechanic and Pilot Training Institutions ; Research is needed to ascertain qualitative measures of curriculum content, structure, and design; instructional capability and teacher training; uses of educational methodologies; on-the-job proficiency and productivity of graduates; climate for innovation within the institution; the "feedback" efforts adopted to measure their own performance; industry acceptance of graduates; and industry utility or use of graduates. E. A Comparative Cost Analysis of In-Depth Specialty Training for Pilots and Non-Pilots : Undoubtedly, individual carriers are conducting on-going cost analyses of their own training investments. A collective analysis concentrating on what is being taught; how it is being taught; measurement factors of productivity; temperament factors effect on training; aptitude identifications and correlations, if any; and other areas need to be determined. The products of such research could then be related to what can and should be done by pre-prof essional education and training institutions to reduce the on-the-job training investments of the carriers. F. The Relations of Task Performance Levels to Psychic Motivations, Especially Among Pilots : Are there intellectual and attitudinal factors which can be identified and used as predictive elements for success in pilot training? Such research can be related to career and personal development choices, aptitudes, and mo t i va t i ons . G. The Role of Advanced Education Technology : Extensive research and experimentation is required to determine the role of newly emerging educational technologies in aviation training operations. H. Instructor Personnel Education and Training for Aviation Curricula : Research and training activities are needed, especially in the use of currently available media, modules and methods, but, more importantly, in the potential applications of new educational technology to aeronautical technology curricula. 11-43 Motivation Programs : Research efforts are needed for the analysis and design of educational programs whose objectives will be to motivate high school students, teenagers and other segments of our population to pursue professional careers in the aviation industry. 3. An aviation industry/education research and development center be established within the context of the proposed aviation training center to initiate, conduct or coordinate these studies as appropriate. Further, it is recommended that careful attention be given to plans for national dissemination and implementation of the anticipated research findings, curricula, instructional materials and systems. 4. Within the context of the proposed aviation training center, fullest consideration be given to the establishment of a (civil aviation industry) education/training documentation center, providing for automated retrieval and remote access provisions for the civil aviation industry. 11-44 SECTION III SITE SELECTION STUDY Introduction This section of the report deals with the selection of a site suitable for accommodating the type aviation training center visualized. During the site selection study, consideration was given to the existence and suit- ability of land, runways, buildings, and utilities; location with respect to other air traffic, such as commercial airways and military operations and to practice areas; the current status of each site; and the potential economic impact of an aviation training center on surrounding communities. The original submission of the feasibility study proposal to the Economic Development Administration was based on the premise that, if such a center were established, the economic benefits to the local community would be significant and that a project for the establishment of such a center would, therefore, qualify as an economic development program. The two locations considered in the site selection study were the Litchfield Naval Air Station located west of the City of Phoenix and the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield located on the Gila River Indian Reservation southwest of Phoenix. Both of the sites are within a twenty-mile radius of Phoenix and both were faced with or are experiencing serious economic problems. Only the Gila River Indian Reservation site, however, is located in an Economic Development Administration Redevelopment Area. Figure III-l shows the location of the two sites in relation to Phoenix, Tempe, and other communities. Methodology The research and evaluation procedures followed during the site selection study included: 1. Visits to both sites to examine facilities, records, and equipment. 2. Conferences with appropriate representatives of both locations. III-l III-2 Detailed studies of civil airways operations in the vicinity of both sites and of the military operations of Luke and Williams Air Force Bases, which are in close proximity to the Litchfield and Goodyear Auxiliary sites, respectively. The past, present, and future economic outlook for areas surrounding each site were analyzed. A detailed analysis of the economic impact of the proposed training center on surrounding areas was made. Types and potential number of jobs which might be created and the potential individual and area income were estimated. Description of Sites Litchfield Naval Air Station ; The U. S. Naval Air Facility located at Litchfield Park, Arizona, approximately twenty miles west of Phoenix, was a storage, reclamation, and disposal complex designed for utilization by the U. S. armed forces in their aviation programs. The facility was established during World War II as an auxiliary acceptance unit for Navy patrol bombers. Through progressive utilization and growth, the facility expanded to its present size of 805 acres, containing 200 buildings and structures. The complex, valued at over $15 million, had a work force of 1,085 people at peak employment, of which 700 were civilians. The annual payroll of over $4.5 million contributed substantially to the economic stability of the communities of Avondale, Goodyear, and Litchfield Park, which supplied most of the work force. The combined population of these communities is approximately 9,000„ A decision to deactivate this facility was made by the U. S. Department of Defense in 1964. This deactivation program, designed to improve operating efficiency and achieve certain monetary savings for the federal government, is underway and will be completed by 1 July 1967. The shutdown program was expected to cause a loss of about 60% of the economic stability of the three small communities mentioned above. This loss has not developed, however, because new work has been obtained in these communities at a rate approximately equal to the rate of loss caused by the III-3 phased shutdown of the Naval Air Station. Of the 700 civilians employed at the Naval Air Station, 50 resigned from Civil Service, 75 retired, 315 transferred to other government and local jobs, and 260 transferred to other locations which absorbed the facility's functions, such as Tucson, Arizona, or some of the Naval facilities in California. 1 The new work acquired in the three communities more than offset the payroll losses caused by the dispersal of the personnel. During the shutdown program, all equipment was removed, leaving only the vacant buildings available for future occupants. Following is a detailed description of the total facility: Land : Slightly over 805 acres of land are available within the complex shown in Figure III-2. Of this total acreage, approximately 12 acres are considered improved and the balance are considered semi- or unimproved acreage. A total of 9.3 miles of roads are located on the base. Of this total, 5.5 miles are paved of bituminous asphalt and 3.8 miles are unpaved. A chain link security fence encloses the base. This fence is 6 feet in height, with three or five strands of barbed wire. The total length of the fence enclosing the base is 36,760 linear feet. Acquisition information indicates that approximately 655 acres of land were transferred to the U. S. Navy by the Reconstruction Finance Corporation through a quit claim deed in December 1948 The additional land was acquired later from private owners through condemnation proceedings. Several out-grants and ease- ments exist with the El Paso Natural Gas Company, Southern Pacific Railroad, and the Goodyear Aerospace Corporation with respect to gas mains, railroad crossings, and joint usage of the runway. These agreements are expected to be maintained by any future occupant of the base. Runways : The airfield includes a single runway, 8,500' long X 150' wide. The runway is of asphaltic concrete and has an excellent base and runway lights. The runway is designed to accommodate heavy, four-engine aircraft. A total of 202,900 From personal interview with Naval Air Station Personnel Department, III -4 1 - Barracks 2 - Powerhouse 3 - Mess Hall/Club 4 - Aircraft Parking Ramp 5 - Hangars 6 - Existing Boundary 7 - 8500' Runway Figure III-2 - Litchfield Naval Air Station Layout, Showing the Runway and Permanent Structures III-5 sq. yds. of aircraft parking aprons (PC) are located adjacent to the service hangars, extending to the NE alongside the runway. The long dimension parallel to the runway is 2,100 feet in length and 300 feet wide, with a single wheel load capacity of 120,000 lbs. The short leg of the "L" shaped apron measures approximately 1,400 feet in length and 700 feet wide. Buildings, Structures, and Miscellaneous Facilities ; A total of 112 buildings did exist on the facility, of which 30 were considered permanent, 61 semi-permanent, and 21 temporary. Some of these buildings were removed during the shutdown procedure. The facilities on the base include certain key buildings, particularly two hangars numbered 18 and 52. Hangar No. 1 is 400' long X 300' wide X 60' high. Two doors are contained in the structure on each side, providing for door openings 320 feet in width. The door heights are 39" 10". Shops and office space in the amount of 29,000 sq. ft. are included in this building. The building contains a total of 120,246 sq. ft. The hangar is constructed of reinforced concrete foundation and floor, wood frame with cement asbestos shingled walls, and bituminous roof coating on a wooden roof. The building was constructed in 1945 and is considered a permanent building. Hangar No. 52 is 450' long X 300' wide X 60' in height, with two doors per side, providing for a 320' door opening on each side. The door heights are 39' 5". The hangar contains shops and office space, along with supply warehousing in the amount of 43,700 sq. ft. A total of 145,000 sq. ft. of floor space is contained within this hangar building. The hangar is constructed on a reinforced concrete foundation and floor. It has metal siding and a metal bituminous roof coating on a metal roof. The hangar was constructed in 1953 and is considered a permanent structure. III-6 Three permanent, two-story, brick barracks buildings are located on the base for personnel support. These barracks each contain 14,300 sq. ft. of floor space. Each barracks is rated at 116-man capacity. Another permanent, one- story, brick building contains the galley, mess hall, theater, and office space. This building contains 18,600 sq. ft. of floor space. The mess hall is rated at 320-man capacity and the theater is rated at 400-man capacity. In addition to the structures described above, the base contains approximately 88 additional structures, including a seven-story, concrete control tower. The dimensions of the control tower are 21' X 21* X 78'. A 60-ton capacity truck scale is also located on the base. Utilities 1. Electricity : Electricity is purchased from the Arizona Public Service Company. Distribution lines are basically overhead lines. Emergency generating capabilities which exist on the base include an auxiliary generator, with a 93.8 kva capability; a 25 kva stand-by generator for runway lighting; a 27.5 kva emergency generator for radio receivers; a 93.8 kva system for control tower operations; and a 25 kva power check facility. 2. Natural Gas : Natural gas is purchased from the Arizona Public Service Company and the El Paso Natural Gas Company. Main gas lines feed all of the key buildings. 3. Boiler/Steam Plants : One boiler house supplies steam to hangars Nos. 18 and 52. It contains three boilers, one of which is rated at 300 h.p. and two at 250 h.p. This boiler house was constructed during the year 1945. Another boiler house supplies steam to the three permanent barracks and the mess hall. This boiler house is equipped with two boilers rated at 200 h.p. each. 4. Water : Two wells are located on the base. One well supplies station needs at 600 gallons per minute capacity and the other provides water for fire use at a rate of 800 gallons per minute. There are two major and three minor water reservoirs located on the facility, with a total storage capacity for 1,028,500 gallons. III-7 5. Sanitary Sewer : Four sewage pumping plants are located on the Naval Air Station. One is a lift station, one is a sewage/sludge pumphouse, one is a wash rack pump station, and the fourth is a sewage pump station. 6. Compressed Air : Two major compressed air plants are located on the station, serving the various buildings and facilities which require compressed air for their operation. 7. Fuel Storage : The base contains a total of 12 storage tanks located at convenient locations for aircraft fueling and for the support of other base activities. Total storage capacity is 137,000 gallons. Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield : The Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield is located in the northeast corner of the Gila River Indian Reservation in central Arizona. The northern boundary of the Reservation is approximately 15 miles from Phoenix, the State Capitol, and the southern boundary is approximately 65 miles from Tucson, Arizona's second largest city. Inter- state Highway 10, connecting the cities of Phoenix and Tucson, passes through the Reservation directly adjacent to the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. This freeway will be completed early in 1968. The Airfield itself is approximately 10 miles due south of Tempe, Arizona (Arizona State University), and 5 miles west of Chandler. On the freeway, it will be just 15 minutes from downtown Phoenix. An extensive area development program has been undertaken in the northeast corner of the Reservation due west of Chandler. The Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield lies within this development area. This program includes development of industrial, residential, and recreational sites on Reservation land. The study indicated that, if this site were selected for the proposed training center, it would be advantageous to develop the flight pcrcion of the center on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield and a separate aviation academic center in the residential development area approximately 3 miles from the Airfield. This would place the academic center a sufficient distance from the flight training activity to prevent any distractions associated with the flight activity. The academic center could ultimately serve as the initial facility of a future Arizona State University branch III-8 campus, if the demand for such a campus develops. The locations for the various sites discussed above are shown in Figure III-3. Following is a more detailed description of the Airfield and development area being considered for the location of the proposed aviation training center: Land : The Airfield land parcel includes 1,349 acres, laid out so that all future buildings necessary for flight operations and maintenance of aircraft could be designed to optimize all airfield activities. Representatives of the Tribal Council have also indicated a willingness to negotiate a long-term lease agreement with Arizona State University for the consideration of one (1) dollar for tribal land in the residential development area for the academic center .2 This land, in addition to the Airfield site, would provide enough space to satisfy all the needs of the proposed aviation training center in the foreseeable future. Runways : Two runways are available on the Airfield. The main runway, laid out in a northwest-southeast direction, is 8,000 feet in length and 150 feet wide. The runway was originally 9,240 feet in length and 300 feet wide. In 1963, the U. S. Air Force resurfaced the runway 150 feet in width, for a distance of 8,000 feet. This runway is in good condition and is designed to accommodate any of the aircraft being considered for use in the proposed training program. A second runway runs northeast-southwest, is 5,500 feet long and 300 feet wide. It is in poor condition and would require resurfacing for continuous utilization. Two taxiways are available. The northwest-southeast is in good condition, while the east-west taxiway is poor and needs resurfacing. An aircraft parking apron 2,675' X 1,000' is also available but in poor condition. There is no lighting on any of the runways . ^Discussions with Loyde A. Allison, Governor, Gila River Indian Community, Sacaton, Arizona. III-9 111-10 Buildings, Structures, Etc. : There are no buildings or other structures available on the Airfield. New facilities would be required to accommodate the proposed aviation training program. Utility services at this location will become available in conjunction with the development of the Kyrene Industrial Park, which is underway in the area just north of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield site. Utilities 1. Electricity : Electricity for the portion of the Reservation being considered for the proposed training center is provided by the Salt River Project system. The electricity requirements of the proposed training center can be developed and expanded as the need arises. 2. Gas : The El Paso Natural Gas Company has several pipelines crossing the Reservation, one of which passes through a portion of the Airfield. Obtaining gas services poses no problems at the Airfield site. 3. Water : Water for industrial purposes can be readily developed on the Reservation. The use of agricultural wells has established the underground water pattern in the area for future development. Water for all purposes should be adequate for the foreseeable future. 4. Sewer : A joint venture sewer project between the City of Chandler and the Gila River Indian Community is presently underway. This sewer project will service the Kyrene Industrial Park and all of the adjacent development areas, including the proposed aviation training center. Suitability of Proposed Sites Both of the bases considered in the site selection study were carefully analyzed for their suitability from the standpoint of adequacy of land, runways, facilities, and utilities; proximity to other aviation operations, civil or military; accessibility from Arizona State University; economic impact on surrounding communities; and factors related to their acquisition. Following are the results of the analysis: III-ll Litchfield Naval Air Station Land : The land acreage of the Litchfield Naval Air Station is adequate for the purposes of the proposed aviation training center. Sufficient acreage exists to permit expansion to the maximum size foreseeable. Runways : Even though only one runway exists on the facility, it is adequate to handle any size aircraft that might be utilized in the program. Since only one runway is available, operations may be curtailed at times, but this is not expected to occur very often because of the direction of prevailing winds. Buildings : Only the two hangar buildings and the four permanent buildings described above would be suitable for use in the proposed aviation training program and then only after extensive modification. At this date, these buildings have been requested by other governmental agencies for their use. New buildings would, therefore, be required to accommodate the training center. Utilities : With exception of the sewer system which would probably require expansion, all other utilities appear to be adequate to support the training program. Short runs would be required to connect new buildings into the existing utility systems. Proximity to Other Air Operations ; Litchfield's proximity to Luke Air Force Base and its location on airway V-16 are problems in its consideration as an aviation training site. The Luke Air Force Base flying activities have recently been increased to an average of approximately 250 jet missions per training day. This amounts to approximately 650 runway actions per training day, and additional training requirements are anticipated in the near future. In view of the above facts, it seemed appropriate to review some of the flight traffic highlights involved in Luke Air Force Base training operations and point out several particularly significant airspace areas and procedures which will be important to the safety of any aviation activities conducted in areas west of Phoenix and, particularly, with respect to any operations conducted from the Litchfield Naval Air Station. 111-12 Airway V-16 from Blythe, to Buckeye, to Phoenix lies due south of Luke Air Force Base and almost directly above the Litchfield Naval Air Station. Since 75% of all Luke sorties (about 187 per weekday) proceed south to the Luke Air Force Base Gunnery Range Complex and the airspace training area southeast of Gila Bend, the Federal Aviation Administration deemed it necessary to separate this military jet traffic from other airspace users passing through the area by way of a flight path along airway V-16. The so-called "Luke V-16 corridor" resulted. Provisions for its use by military jet aircraft and avoidance by other aircraft are defined in Federal Aviation Regulations. A summary of the details of this provision are shown in Figure III-4. Total Luke jet crossings or entries into the V-16 corridor average over 400 per training day and almost 50 per hour, if averaged over a nine-hour day. Several other areas heavily traveled by Luke jet traffic are depicted in Figure XII-5. Training is normally conducted each weekday between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. Mountain Time and, occasionally, on Saturday. Night training sessions are usually held an average of three times per week. All Luke traffic that proceeds to the south passes through the area labeled "2" in Figure III-5, as well as the Luke jet traffic corridor across airway V-16. It is significant that ATC does not clear IFR traffic on airways V-66, V-94, and V-461 at those altitudes used by Luke traffic while daytime training is in progress. Although these altitudes are not prohibited to other than Luke VFR air traffic, they are areas that should be avoided due to the high density of Luke jet traffic during the periods of the day cited above. Another high density area is the Phoenix -Wickenburg highway area north of Luke Air Force Base, from Wickenburg to Peoria. The busiest portion of this area is between Sun City and Luke AFB Auxiliary No. 1. Every jet aircraft operating out of Luke Air Force Base must cross this part of the highway at least twice between 2,500 and 5,000 feet MSL. Additional details related to Luke Air Force Base operations are contained in Figures III-6 through III-8. Figure III-6 111-13 H 00 CO § fa H >. +J 2 4-1 O 4* 4-1 hJ o o 2 > O g CO i-i 4-J g 4-1 00 2 o S o F CH ■s^ g > i-l 4-1 0) 4J '•\—S CU CO . H • li: :•!« > 42 CU O CU ■■' fa •i-l 4J > > a^ CO O 4-) O B 3 X) rQ CO 43 33 .V 3 <-< C CO co u CJ CO ». & •H X * CU " M-l ;:'l rf CU • hJ i-l O i-l 4-1 bO co CO f:i CO i3 cu C 2 C fa C )-< i-i O -H •H CO t-1 H O CO C 4J U f' : , T3 a fa "H 4-1 •D -rl 13 4-J tH W CO CU CO CU CI) l-l I-l ^1 O •H >H Eil •"> M 13 •H 4-1 O 4-4 CU 4-4 O co m •H 42 •>-< pq c_> a fa - CJ 4-1 CJ El a gg" CU CU fa O fa ^ ■ X> XI CO 4-1 CO fc; cu 4-1 a) •H l-l C X •.i O >^ Vi O CO CO 13 CO 3 3 CU Vl 4-1 CU CU CU E ►J >.rM O ,-J 6 +J 6 a ■ 4-J O O "CO •H CJ -H •H 3 >> 2 4-1 M-l 4-) K: O pq CU CO 1-4 B 4*! 13 4-J CU 4-J CU H ; : 3 M 4-1 4-1 CO 42 J 3 •U CU 4-1 •M 4-J O I-l !;■ •. '1 CU CO o toO toO $ / — « 42 co o a co c ft X 4-1 •i-i t4 >H CD 4-1 cj 3 m M ^ 1 i /M >N ^ -H CO )-t 3 CJ 3 0) O M (UJ C XI T-l X) 4*! faX> CO 4J CU 4-1 o >-i d 3 CU XI M-l i-4 / \ 3 'i-l CU >> 3 CU CO CO T \ /T T p-i <3 ^ CJ CO 4-) co u 2 \ / • Nw' •H X> CU 3 4-J hJ \ / ' 4-1 C2 43 4-1 CO 1 1 \ / 4J,J 4-1 O 4-J I-l 4-1 2 \. / ^00 CO 2 O 'r4 \/ s HO C co O 4-J Y ° 4-> « CO o M-l 1 O 2 >. fa co >j m CO OS 4-J .—1 CO •H (1) « o m 1 CU ^ H CU r-l O >% 1 !>, CJ 3 CO jd ■M i-l 42 4-> M-± CU CO >J 2 H 4-1 ■-• CM cn u <1 H &c C •H !3 toO C ■H C •H , 42 CO if 2 o <-4 \£> m i-i CO • £2 cr o ffi n •H •> ^ O LOW LEVEL NAVIGATIONS START POINT (4000FT) NORTH Source: Air Ttaffic , Hq. , 4510th Combat Crew Tng W*Lng (TAC) , Luke AFB, Arizona, 16 May 66 Figure III-6 111-16 LUKE AFB RUNWAYS 21 JET DEPARTURES NAV START POINT AERIAL TARGET REEL-OUT CLIMB AREA NORTH ! r ,v.y-V:-,-, CLIMB SOUTH Figure III-7 111-17 LUKE AFB JET ENTRIES LUKE ADF APPROACH 5000 FT LUKE TACAN APPROACH 5000 FT Figure III-8 111-18 shows the Luke AFB 03 jet departures. Figure III-7 shows Luke AFB runway 21 jet departures, and Figure III-8 shows the Luke AFB jet entries. Special attention is invited to the overlap of the Luke AFB operating patterns with those of the Litchfield Naval Air Station patterns in Figures III- 6 through III-8. Figure III-9 shows additional operations in the Phoenix area, including both military operations and civil airways. Because of the proximity of the Litchfield facility to the high density operations at Luke Air Force Base, the U. S. Air Force submitted a formal objection to the use of the Litchfield facility as a training base in such close proximity to their high performance jet training activity. The Department of Defense, in turn, released the Litchfield facility to the General Services Administration for disposition, with the provision that it be disposed of as a non-flight facility. 3 The City of Phoenix is attempting to obtain the base as an auxiliary airport at this time , and Arizona State University is supporting the city's position.-* If the Litchfield facility could be retained by the City of Phoenix as an auxiliary general aviation field, it might be possible to conduct some of the proposed aviation training center's advanced flight training at that site in the future. In summary, it appears that, because of the proximity of the Litchfield site to Luke Air Force Base and the objections of the U. S. Air Force to novice training in an area of high density jet training activities leading to the current Department of Defense/General Services Administration position, it will probably not be possible for Arizona State University to acquire and operate the Litchfield Naval Air Station as an aviation training center. 3 Letter from GSA Regional Administrator (G. E. McNamara) to Mayor, City of Phoenix (Milton Graham), dated 23 March 1967. ^Letter from Mayor Milton Graham to Joseph Tippets, Federal Aviation Administration, Western Region, Los Angeles, Calif., dated 17 March 1967. ^Letter from Dr. Walter Burdette, Div. of Industrial Design & Technology, Arizona State University, to Elmer M. Parks, Federal Aviation Administration, Los Angeles, Calif., dated 2 May 1967. 111-19 IOBJL n/-|05 %^ Pi Q o gs >^ p W pej w H O PQ W o frf H g 2 Pi O < g $ O O 111-20 Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield Land : The Airfield proper includes approximately 1,349 acres, a small percentage of which is tribal land and the balance is allotted acreage. The land at the Airfield site is adequate for the flight activities at the proposed training center. As stated earlier, representatives of the Tribal Council have also agreed to negotiate a long-term lease agreement for additional land inthe residential development area for academic facilities of the proposed training center. The acreage at both sites is adequate for the proposed center and will accommodate expansion programs for the foreseeable future. Runways : The long runway (8,000' X 150') is in good condition and capable of handling all aircraft that have been considered for utilization in the training program in the foreseeable future. The shorter runway (5,500' X 300') is in poor condition and would require resurfacing if used in the program. Both runways would also require lighting systems. One of the taxiways and the (2,675* X 1,000') parking ramp would also require resurfacing. Buildings and Utilities : As stated earlier, there are no buildings on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield site. Utility services, including electricity, gas and water, are available at the site and sewage disposal facilities will become available in conjunction with the development of the Kyrene Industrial Park and the residential area, both of which are just to the north of the Airfield. Short runs will be required to connect into existing systems and those under development. Proximity to Other Air Operations : The Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield is located near several areas of relatively light air traffic. The Airfield lies directly beneath the inter- section of three federal airways, designated V-95, V-105, and V-16 (see Figure III-9) . These airways extend upward from an altitude of either 4,000 feet or 5,000 feet above sea level to an altitude of 18,000 feet, and each airway is 8 nautical miles wide. Two of the airways, V-95 and V-16, begin at 5,000 feet above sea level, while the other, V-105, begins at 4,000 feet. Airway V-105 passes almost directly over the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield; V-95 lies to the west; and airway V-16 lies to the east of the airport location. The airspace beneath these airways is not restricted. Thus, the airfield traffic area, which extends upward from the surface to 3,000 feet above the ground, would not interfere with airway airspace. 111-21 Just to the west of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield, beginning at a distance of approximately 7.5 nautical miles from the center of the Airfield, lies a trapezoidal shaped area which, although surrounded by airways, is not restricted use airspace. This irregularly shaped area includes approximately 750 square miles and is an area of light air traffic which is suitable for use as a flight training area. The center of this area is approximately 25 nautical miles, or about 15 minutes of flight by light airplane, away from the Airfield. The training area just described lies within an area of controlled airspace beginning at 1,200 feet above ground level. Within tnis airspace, the Federal Aviation Administration maintains facilities for the control of traffic operating under instrument flight rules. These facilities include the normal airways navigation aids and also air traffic control radar. The availability of these facilities is both beneficial and necessary, in that they are essential to the completion of instrument training for pilots. Most of the immediate airspace south of the Airfield is occupied by federal airways which, as mentioned above, extend from 5,000 feet above sea level upward. The ground elevation in this area, however, is generally lower than 2,000 feet. This leaves 3,000 feet or more of lightly used airspace, including approximately 1,000 square miles which is suitable for flight training operations within 40 nautical miles of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. The two areas described above include a total of approximately 1,750 square miles of usable airspace. If the amount of airspace allocated to each training aircraft is 40 square miles, then 43 aircraft could reasonably be operated in this space. Present forecasts indicate that the proposed training facility will eventually utilize a total of approximately 40 aircraft. It appears, therefore, that the airspace necessary to conduct training operations is available and will continue to be available. This estimate of airspace needs for the proposed training center is conservative. Most operators in closely-controlled training programs using light, single-engine aircraft determine airspace requirements on the basis of 20 square miles per aircraft. Although this would seem to indicate crowded airspace, it should be kept in mind that in a controlled program, such as that under consideration, altitude separation can be used to ease airspace congestion. (It is interesting to note that, if the proposed 111-22 training center were located at the Litchfield Naval Air Station site, it would be necessary to conduct training flights in the same two areas described above.) The Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield is presently being used by Williams Air Force Base, 16 miles to the east, for jet transition training under a lease arrangement with the Tribal Council on the Gila River Indian Reservation. The reason for its use by the U. S. Air Force is to relieve congestion on the already over-crowded Williams AFB runways. Williams Air Force Base operates an undergraduate pilot training program and has between 400 and 600 students in training at one time. Primary flight training (phase 1) consists of 6 weeks and 30 flight hours in Cessna T-41 (Cessna 172 equivalent) aircraft. The students are billeted at Williams Air Force Base and transported by bus to the Casa Grande Airport, 25 miles south of Williams AFB, for this phase 1 primary flight training. Koenig Aviation at Casa Grande operates and maintains twenty-one USAF T-41 aircraft for this purpose. Primary flight training (phase 2) consists of 20 weeks training and 90 flight hours in T-37 (small, twin-engine, low- performance jet) type aircraft." Students fly out of Williams Air Force Base with these aircraft and use the Coolidge- Florence Airport for takeoff and landing practice. The Coolidge-Florence Airport is located 30 air miles southeast of Williams Air Force Base. Basic flight training completes the undergraduate pilot course and consists of 26 weeks and 120 flight hours in Northrop T-38 aircraft. This program is conducted at Williams Air Force Base and the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield is used for practice instrument approaches and landings.' All T-38 traffic is presently radar controlled by Phoenix FAA to assure positive aircraft separation. Phoenix FAA reports that T-38 use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield averages approximately 50 operations per day. 6 T-37 Wing Manual 55-37 , 3525th Pilot Training Wing, Williams Air Force Base, Arizona, January 1967. 7 T-38 Wing Manual 55-38 , 3525th Pilot Training Wing, Williams Air Force Base, Arizona, January 1967. 111-23 Williams Air Force Base also has intensive jet training areas east and northeast of Phoenix, extending from 10,000 to 20,000 feet MSL. This airspace is not legally unusable by civil aviation but is the airspace within which Williams high speed traffic is concentrated. The use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield by Williams is a temporary measure to relieve congestion at the Williams Air Force Base. If reductions in training activity by Williams (not visualized at this time) developed or if the congestion at the Williams AFB could be relieved with other measures, such as a third runway at that location, the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield could be used as the flight area of the proposed training center. It is planned to undertake negotiations with the U. S. Air Force during the second phase of the study to determine the steps necessary to establish the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield for use as a civil aviation training center. Economic Factors The economic decline which had been expected in the communities near the Litchfield Naval Air Station did not materialize, as stated earlier, because new income-producing activities were developed and the labor force did not experience any unemployment or loss of income due to the shutdown of the Litchfield facility. The selection of the Litchfield site and the establishment of the proposed training center thereon could not, therefore, be considered an economic program factor, inasmuch as the area is not economically depressed. This factor, coupled with the Department of Defense and General Services Administration positions regarding disposition of the base as a non-flight facility and the air traffic problems that would be created by the establishment of a training center at that location, essentially eliminated the Litchfield site from further consideration as a flight training center. On the basis of the foregoing, further discussion of the economic impact of the proposed training center on surrounding communities will pertain to the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield site only. In order to convey a more accurate understanding of the economic impact created by locating the proposed training center on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield site, it is first necessary to describe the economic conditions that exist on the Reservation. Following is a detailed description of the area and the conditions which presently exist on the Gila River Indian Reservation. 111-24 Geographic Description : The Gila River Indian Reservation is located in central Arizona, southeast of Phoenix. The area lies in the heart of the Central Arizona Basin, a broad, gently sloping alluvial plain, approximately 100 miles long and having an average width of about 50 miles, bordered by northwest-tending mountain ranges. Detached mountain ranges, rocky and barren, rise abruptly from the valley floor to form imperfect topographical divisions or interruptions in the general plain. The Reservation is a typical southwestern desert area that cannot be cultivated without irrigation. However, even if sufficient water were available, about 82% of the land is unsuitable for cultivation. The area totals some 372,022 acres. The elevation of the bottom land ranges from 935 feet at the western boundary to 4,450 feet at the eastern line. It is 1,274 feet at Sacaton, headquarters of the Gila River Indian Reservation. The average elevation of the irrigated land in the western part of the Reservation is about 1,000 to 1,500 feet. The climate in this area is typical of the arid regions of the Southwest, The winters are mild with occasional light frosts and moderate but irregular rains from December through March. The summers are warm and dry with occasional thunderstorms during July, August, and September. The maximum temperature ranges from 115°F. to 126°F.; the minimum from 8°F. to 18°F., with an average annual temperature of approximately 70°F. The average growing season is approximately 250 days, with the first frost occurring about November 15th and the last about March 15th. Relative humidity is generally low and the loss of water by evaporation is very high. Transportation Facilities : The extreme eastern end of the Gila River Indian Reservation is serviced by the Southern Pacific Railroad. Although no passenger service stops are made within the Reservation, convenient stops are made at Chandler and Coolidge -- locations which are just a few miles from the Reservation proper. There are railroad facilities at Dock, Arizona, approximately 4 miles north of Sacaton, but these facilities are used primarily for handling and shipping livestock. Rail facilities are being provided for servicing the Kyrene Industrial Park development area just north of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. The Pacific Greyhound Bus Lines give the eastern end of the Gila River Indian Reservation excellent service each day. Sacaton, headquarters for the Pima Agency, has ten daily bus stops that carry passengers directly into Phoenix to the north and Tucson to the south. The communities of Gila Crossing, Progressive Colony, and Maricopa Colony on the western end of the Reservation have access to transportation services furnished by the Metropolitan Bus Lines of Phoenix. 111-25 Air transportation facilities are available in Phoenix, approximately 40 miles from Sacaton and much nearer from the central or western area of the Reservation. American, Apache, Bonanza, Continental, Frontier, Trans World, and Western Airlines are conveniently located in Phoenix, approximately fifteen minutes from the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield on the new Interstate Highway 10. Roads : A network of all-weather roads, 180 miles in all, and 221 miles of secondary roads, connect the Gila River communities with Sacaton, Phoenix. Chandler, Tempe, Coolidge, Casa Grande, and the other urban centers in the vicinity of the Gila River Indian Reservation. 8 This road system on the Reservation is comprised of the following: a. State paved roads 52.5 miles b. County paved roads 17.5 miles c. Reservation paved roads ... 43.8 miles d. Primary (graveled) 66.1 miles e. Secondary 221.7 miles Total 401.6 miles The new Interstate Highway 10 which traverses the area will become a major factor in opening the area to industrial, commercial, and recreational development. Other new roads will be developed as a part of the development efforts. Present Use of Land Area : Irrigable land is probably the most important single natural resource on the Reservation at the present time. There are approximately 67,000 acrts of irrigable lands, of which some 33,000 are farmed annually. The range lands are considered poor; however, rainy periods permit the growing of enough forage so that local Indians raise cattle and horses on a very limited scale. The use pattern for total Reservation area is as follows :^ Tribal Lands Allotted Lands 4% 6% 1% 197 957 757, Used by Indians Used by non-Indians Idle (Approximately 277, of the total land is allotted to individuals and families and the remaining 737, is community owned by the tribe.) "Records of Bureau of Indian Affairs - Pima Agency. 9 Ibid. 111-26 Factors Contributing to the Economic Decline : One of the factors which has contributed to the economic decline of the Reservation is the periodical shortage of water to carry on an extensive agricultural program. The use of groundwater has been resorted to with a certain degree of success. However, further study is needed to determine the greatest potential of this resource. The economy of the Gila River people is closely associated with irrigable lands and water rights appurtenant thereto, and the future development of the agriculture portion of the Reservation's economy depends upon a participation in a well-organized planning and development program to furnish the area a water supply of suitable quantity and quality. A high percentage of small, uneconomical farm units and heirship problems further contribute to the economic decline. Small, individual allotments with multiple heirs are scattered throughout the area and are a deterrent to a feasible agricultural program. Small, original allotments and their further diminution in size due to heirship divisions, coupled with a limited and uncertain water supply, are the main contributors to the fact that less than 50% of the allotted, irrigable area is currently being used. Extensive technological changes and mechanization in the agricultural industry in this and surrounding areas has also created large-scale unemployment; and since the area presently depends primarily on an agriculture-based economy, this problem will continue to grow. These technological changes will, in no small degree, call for training the unskilled and retraining of those with obsolete vocational skills due to these technical changes and because of the large-scale industrial development pro gr ams und e rway . Population and Labor Force : A study recently completed under the auspices of the Bureau of Ethnic Research of the University of Arizona-^ places the population of the Gila River Redevelopment Area at 7,113 persons. Of this number, 4,628 people live within the boundaries of the Gila River Indian Reservation. The remaining 2,485 live either adjacent to the Reservation or represent those persons who live in Arizona part time off the Reservation, dependent on existing job opportunities. The total of 7,113 represents an increase of 894 over the latest estimate of population in the Redevelopment Area. There has been an out-migration of approximately 1.5% for employment, vocational training, and retraining. This has been offset by a birth rate of approximately 3.5%. The average number of persons living on the Reservation is 6,000. University of Arizona, William H. Kelly, Indians of the Southwest (Annual Report), Bureau of Ethnic Research, Department of Anthropology, Tucson, Arizona, 1966. 111-27 The number of persons which make up the labor force in the Gila River Redevelopment Area is 1,815. The following tabulation shows the present employment status of this labor force: a. Employed 1,165 b. Permanent 470 c. Temporary 695 d. Unemployed 650 Total Labor Force 1,815 Since persons listed as "temporarily employed" usually work in the seasonal agricultural field, they are unemployed the greater part of the year. A survey completed in May 1966 showed an unemployment figure of 1,050 as of that date. 11 The principal characteristics of the labor force are a lack of skilled and semi-skilled individuals. The income of the individuals within the Gila River Redevelopment Area is provided primarily through seasonal agriculture employment, common labor, domestic service, and some semi-skilled factory work. The income level of the average family is estimated to be $2,000 annually. 12 Manpower Needs to Reduce Unemployment ; On the basis of the foregoing employment situation, an analysis was made of the manpower needs of the future to reduce the unemployment to an acceptable 47 Q level. Following are the results of the analysis: A. The number of jobs required to reduce the above unemployment to a 47o level is 977, arrived at as follows: 1. The 1966 average rate unemployed (587o) applied to 1,815 1,050 2. 47o of 1966 average work force of 1,815 73 3. Difference, indicating number of jobs required 977 Up,- Gila River Indian Community, VH- THAW-HUP- EA-JU, It Must Happen , May 1966, p. 52. 12 It Must Happen , Ibid. , p. 17. 111-28 The number of jobs to meet normal growth 1966-1971 is 276, developed as follows: Male Female 1. Growth in population, 14 years and over, 1966-1971 260 300 2. ' Area labor force participation rates, 1966 69.17o 32.17o 3. Jobs required to meet normal growth in labor force, 1966- 1971, based on area participation rates 180 96 The number of jobs required to raise area labor force participation rates to national average by 1971 is 27, developed as follows: Male Female 1. National labor force participation rates, 1966 76.67. 34.57, 2. Area labor force participation rates, 1966 69.1% 32.17. 3. Difference in rates 7.57. 2.47. 4. Jobs required to raise area rates to national rates (difference in rates, 3, applied to growth in area labor force, 1966-1971) 20 7 In summary, 977 new jobs will be required to reduce the current unemployment rate to 47.. An additional 276 jobs will be required to meet the normal growth in labor force by 1971, plus 27 jobs to raise the area labor force participation rates to the national average by 1971. Thus, a requirement exists for at least 1,280 new jobs for the Reservation personnel by 1971, if the unemployment rate is to be reduced to an acceptable rate of 47o. 111-29 Current Economic Development Programs : Economic development of the Gila River Indian Reservation is essential if the serious unemployment rate of the Reservation is to be significantly reduced and the median income raised above the poverty level. This development will also bring income to the Gila River Indian Community which will enable it to carry out many of the programs for social and community improvement. The Reservation is quite favorably situated for economic development, being bisected by the new Interstate Highway 10 and other major highways. It lies just south of the large and expanding Phoenix-Tempe-Mesa-Chandler urban complex and has the towns of Coolidge and Casa Grande on the east and south. Adequate water, gas and power are available, as well as rail facilities for Reservation use. In early 1966, the Gila River Indian Community established a comprehensive long-range program to develop the resources on the Reservation. The program involves far-reaching economic, community and social development programs designed to reduce unemployment and create personal and tribal income. This long-range program is called "VH-THAW-HUP-EA-JU" or It Must Happen . 13 Many of the individual projects are underway, particularly with respect to economic development, and the objectives of the overall program are being successfully achieved. The core of economic development program is the establishment of three industrial parks. *■**■ The three parks will be managed by non-profit corporations which will lease Gila River Indian Community lands. One of the parks will be an agricultural- industrial park established for cattle feeding and allied industries. This will alleviate the present problem of cattle feeders who are forced to move their operations out of Phoenix. The other parks will be utilized for light and heavy industrial development. To date, six industrial corporations have negotiated for and are breaking ground in the park sites. It is felt by the tribe that the cooperative approach to the development of the industrial parks which encompass non-Indian business entities will bring advantages to both groups. Joint development of the Chandler sewage line is a prime example of the result of mutual cooperation. The City of Chandler will be provided a means of adequate sewage disposal, and sewage facilities will be available at the site of one of the proposed industrial parks. " It Must Happen , op . cit . I4 It Must Happen , Ibid. , pp. 13-28. 111-30 It is anticipated that the development of the three industrial parks will satisfy 20% of the job needs within the next twelve months and 43% within five years. -*-5 Grants for basic facilities development and loans to prospective lessees from the government and private sources will be essential to and are being obtained for the industrial park development programs . Leasing of lands for special uses has also proved a significant source of income to the community in past years. This can continue for such uses as a major testing site for a large construction equipment company and for a planned residential community. Mineral leasing offers another possible source of tribal income. Rising copper prices and new methods of processing copper ores have stimulated renewed interest by private capital in Reservation lands. Nature has provided the Reservation with very attractive scenery and a variety of outdoor recreational resources. Establishment of parks and game-bird management are equally important potentials for development. Also, the Reservation is geographically located near other large and colorful Indian reservations in Southwestern United States. Appreciating these facts, opportunities for developing accommodations and attractions for the vacationer and traveler appear to be abundant. The tribe realizes that they must expand development of a wide variety of recreational opportunities in the immediate future, otherwise the fringe benefits of jobs, technical training and income will go to areas outside the Reservation. It is anticipated that new legislation now being enacted will remove many of the hindrances to development that have handicapped tribes in the past. In this regard, the Gila River Indian Community has proposed legislation that it believes will be beneficial to Indian tribes. It has also requested specific legislation, such as the authority for ninety-nine year leases which is essential for full economic development of the Reservation. lb It is felt that the fifty-one projects comprising the It Must Happen program will meet most of the Reservation needs and are highly realistic. Within two years, if these projects are completed, total Reservation income could increase by $2,606,200 and 545 additional jobs will be available, excluding income and jobs created by the proposed aviation training center. By the fifth year from the initiation of this plan, Reservation income will have increased by $6,543,800 and 1,200 total additional jobs will be available. Mean family income will have risen from $2,000 in 1966 to about $3,000 (the poverty line) by 1968 and to $5,400 by 1971. 17 l ^it Must Happen , Ibid. , p. 14. 1& Gila River Indian Community, Progress Report, It Must Happen , 15 February 1967. ^' It Must Happen , op. cit. , p. 51. 111-31 Economic Impact of Proposed Training Center Potential Job Opportunities ; The additional jobs created by- establishment of the proposed aviation training center on the Reservation and the income derived therefrom would be in addition to that cited above. To determine the economic impact of the training center, both the short- and long-range job opportunities were examined. Within the time and resource parameters of the study, a preliminary estimate of the number of jobs created by the establishment of the proposed center was made. The identification of the potential jobs was made under four major categories: 1. Site Development 2. Facilities Development 3. Operation of Training Center 4. Services Under each of the four categories, a feasible listing of job opportunities which would derive from the establishment of the center was developed; however, in some of the categories, such as site development, it was not possible to estimate the number of potential jobs at this time. The numbers would depend on such factors as design of the facilities, timetable for development, etc. In these cases, only the readily identifiable types of jobs were listed. In the training center operations category, it was possible to identify both types of jobs and the numbers of jobs created. The numbers were based upon an analysis of personnel requirements for various student modules or blocks. Four student modules were considered, i.e., 500, 1000, 1500, and 2000. It was also assumed that one-half of the students would be enrolled in the flight training program and the balance would be enrolled in non-flight options or in the technician training programs. A listing of the potential job opportunities under the four categories is set forth below: Site Development : The jobs created under this category would be short term or temporary -- for the duration of the development program. Since the number of personnel required to fill these jobs would depend upon the scope and timetable of the development program, only the job titles have been listed: - Surveyor teams - Heavy equipment operators - Truck drivers - Underground systems installers - Supply stores personnel - Accounting personnel - Supervisors 111-32 Facilities Development ; This category involves primarily the construction of the various buildings required for the operation of the training center, such as classroom buildings, hangars, dormitories, administrative buildings, garages, recreation, etc. Again, the jobs created will be of a short term or temporary nature. Surveyors Truck drivers Carpenters Bricklayers Welders Electricians Plumbers Roofers - Glaziers - Heating/air conditioning installers - Painters - Communications personnel - Apprentices (to all trades) - Supply stores personnel - Accounting personnel - Supervisors (Note: Some of the personnel trained for both the site and facilities development jobs would be retained after these developments are completed to maintain and service the facilities they helped develop.) Operation of Training Center : As stated above, the estimates for personnel under this category were based upon four modules of student enrollment, i.e., 500, 1000, 1500, and 2000. Following is a listing of types of jobs that would be created, along with the numbers of jobs under each module. These would all be long-range or permanent positions. Per 500 Per 1000 Per 1500 Per 2000 Job Categories Students Students Students Students 1. Professional - Non-Flight 23 45 68 90 - Flight 17 34 50 67 2. Aircraft Maintenance Support 5 9 13 18 3. Staff and Administration 40 79 118 157 4. Food and Dormitory Services Totals 50 110 166 230 135 277 415 562 The basis for items 1 and 2 above is detailed in the next section of this report. Item 3 includes maintenance and service personnel who are on 111-33 the training center payroll. The numbers shown are based upon a 1 to 1 ratio of both the flight and non-flight personnel. The numbers shown in item 4 are based upon current Arizona State University experience and may or may not be on the training center payroll, as these services are often obtained under contract. The numbers here may also be conservative, inasmuch as a higher ratio of students than past experience would indicate may be living on the aviation training center campus due to the unique nature of the proposed training system, i.e., utilization of new educational technologies. Services : These are considered peripheral services which will develop naturally as the proposed center and other developments come into existence. These would be long-range or permanent jobs and the organizations established to offer the services could all be owned by the tribe or tribal members. Again, it is not possible to est ima te n umb ers. I. Recreation Swimming D. Tennis 1. Lifeguards 2. Locker room attendants 3 . Maintenance 4. Food and drink concession B. Boating/Fishing 1. Gas/oil services 2. Boat and tackle concession 3. Maintenance 4. Food and drink concession 1. Services 2 . Ma in t enanc e E. Horseback Riding 1. Instruction 2. Custodial care F. Hobby/Art Centers 1. Instruction 2. Sales C. Golf 1. Grounds keepers 2. Cart rental/ maintenance 3. Pro shop (supplies and sales) 4. Instruction I Q ^Additional part-time student employees are also used to supplement permanent payroll personnel; however, these are not considered here, inasmuch as they have little effect on overall costs. 111-34 II. Business Operations A. Supermarket 1. Checkout clerks 2. Supply and stock personnel 3. Meat counter (butchers) 4. Supervisors B . Res taurant 1 . Cooks 2. Waitresses 3. Cashiers C. Motel 1. Clerks 2. Maids 3. Food/drink service personnel 4. Vending machine operations 5. Souvenir sales D. Automotive 1. Service station (gas/ oil) personnel 2. Parking lot attendants 3. Bus service personnel E. Laundry 1. Clerks 2. Plant personnel 3. Distributors F. Banking 1. Cashiers 2. Clerks 3. Supervisors G. Security 1. Policemen 2. Administration Potential Income to Community : As stated earlier, analysis of the economic impact to surrounding communities resulting from the establishment of an aviation training center is based upon student modules of 500 to 2,000. It is also based on the assumption that one-half of the students will be enrolled in the flight option and the balance in non-flight options. On the basis of the numbers of students presently enrolled in the Arizona State University Aeronautical Technology Program (325 during academic year 1966-67) and the estimated growth of this enrollment (750- 1,000 in two years), the aviation training center should be designed for a minimum of 1,000 students initially, with provisions for expansion to accommodate 2,000 students by 1972. On the basis of the foregoing, a number of cost/ income factors have been developed which would contribute to the surrounding communities. These factors are discussed below: 111-35 1. Construction Costs : On the basis of information contained in the "cost" section of this report, it is estimated that the proposed aviation training center will cost on the order of $8,000 per student, including equipment. Of this amount, 80% is estimated for labor and materials and 20% for equipment. The labor and materials allocation is further broken down to 60% labor and 40% materials, with the 75% of the labor amount allocated to skilled and 25% to unskilled labor. By using the foregoing allocations, construction of the training center would contribute $2,880 per student to skilled labor and $920 per student to the unskilled labor pool. By applying these figures to the initial design for a 1,000-student body institution, construction would contribute $3,800,000 to labor in the surrounding communities. If the Gila River Indian Reservation labor pool could be adequately trained to occupy all of the non-skilled jobs and one-half of the skilled jobs, the construction of the first phase of the training center (1,000-student design) would contribute approximately $2,4b0,000 to the Indian economy. A like, or higher, amount would be contributed to the economy as a result of the expansion to a 2,000-student body center by 1972. 2. Training Costs (Non-Flight) : On the basis of current experience at Arizona State University and in other educational institutions, it is estimated that training costs in the proposed aviation training center will be on the order of approximately $2,000 per student per year. " Approximately one-half, or $1,000, of the total amount is estimated for salaries and wages and the balance is for operations, travel and capital. 20 On the basis of the above, establishment of the training center would initially contribute $1,000,000 per year to the local economy in the way of salaries and wages, building to $2,000,000 per year by 1972. If the Indians could be adequately trained to assume 25% of the positions on the faculty and staff, the annual income to that population could be $250,000 initially, building up to $500,000 per year by 1972. ^Arizona State University total expenditures for 1966-67 were $27,570,564, Fall semester enrollment was 16,766 full-time equivalent students (head count 20,750) for a per FTE student cost of $1,644. 20 Total wages and salaries for Arizona State University during 1966-67 were $11,838,607. This represents approximately 43% of total expenditures. 111-36 3. Training Costs (Flight) : In addition to the training costs cited above for the non-flight training activites, an additional cost, estimated at $25 per flight hour, will result. If one-half of the students enroll in the flight option, each of them will fly 250 hours over a four- year period, or approximately 60 hours per year. At a rate of $25 per hour, the flight training program would cost an estimated $750,000 per year. Of this amount, approximately 40%, or $300,000, would be allocated to salaries, the balance to fuel, oil, spares, etc. This would build up to approximately $600,000 by 1972. If the Indians could also be adequately trained to assume 257> of these positions, the annual income to that population from this source could be $85,000 initially, building up to $170,000 by 1972. 4. Other Costs ; In addition to the training costs, special studies conducted by the University of Arizona indicate that student and student related expenditures in a community will average approximately $3,000 per student per year. 21 These expenditures include such items as food and soft drinks off campus, rooms off campus, automobile expenses, medicines and personal care, and wearing apparel; student union operations and bookstores; expenditures by sororities and fraternities; expenditures by student visitors; and purchases of automobiles, appliances, luxury items, travel, insurance, etc. These expenditures would contribute an additional $3,000,000 to the local economy initially, building up to $6,000,000 by 1972. If it may be assumed that one-third of this income contributed to salaries and that 257o of the salary positions were occupied by Indians, the initial annual income from this source would be $250,000, increasing to $500,000 by 1972. Summary : The following table summarizes the potential income to the Indian community, resulting from the establishment of the proposed aviation training center. These figures are related to direct income (salaries and wages) and do not include profits derived from the leasing of property or the establishment of business operations which would transact business with the training center. ^University of Arizona, Arizona Daily Wildcat 1966-67 , Tucson, Arizona. 111-37 POTENTIAL LABOR INCOME FOR INDIANS BASED ON STUDENT BODY OF 1000 (Double by 1972) Total Total Est. Indian Cost Categories Cost Salaries Salaries 1. Construction (non-recurring) $8,000,000 $3,800,000 $2,460,000 2. Training, Non-Flight (recurring annually) 1,500,000 500,000 250,000 3. Training, Flight (recurring annually) 900,000 360,000 85,000 4. Student & Student Related Expenditures (recurring annually) 3,000,000 1,000,000 250,000 Discussion : Many of the job opportunities described herein are associated with both the developmental and operational activities which could occur with the establishment of the proposed aviation training center. An examination of the variety of jobs listed reveals that many more jobs or sub- tasks could have been listed. There also appears to be some duplication in the listing. Because of the preliminary nature and the limitations of the Feasibility Study, it was decided to list only the most obvious jobs related to the development and operations of the proposed aviation training center. With regard to the apparent duplications, workers usually fill only one job in one assignment, i.e., a maintenance technician in the flight training program would not also be a maintenance technician in a motor pool, or a cook in the student cafeteria will not at the same time function as a cook in a motel. One of the purposes of the Feasibility Study was to determine the economic impact of the proposed aviation training center on the surrounding communities, particularly the Indian Reservation, in terms of jobs and income Based upon the foregoing analyses, it is indicated that quite a number and variety of jobs will become available if the training center is developed. A problem which exists, however, is the unknown factor of Indian population and skills. 111-38 Although some studies have been made to categorize the supervisory, managerial and professional skills of the Indian, no probing, in-depth inventory has yet been made which clearly specifies their levels of talents, skills, aptitudes, and attitudes. Without these definitive, detailed, substantive analyses of the aptitudes and attitudes of the Indian population, it is difficult to estimate how many of these people would be capable of or interested in participating in remedial or vocational training programs which would prepare them for gainful employment in many of the jobs discussed herein. Coincidental with the development of the air training facility, a significant industrial effort is already being undertaken in the immediate geographical vicinity of the proposed site for the training facility. The marriage of these two efforts produces a vast array of job opportunities which is outside the scope of this study, but the concurrent developments can only enhance the economic enrichment of the people who can supply the physical labor force for these undertakings. In addition, the generic natures of many of the jobs required in developing the proposed training facility lend themselves to speedy transfer to other job opportunities which will develop from the economic investments being made by the Indians themselves or by related private industry in that geographic area. On the basis of the foregoing, it appears that short-range pre- vocational and vocational training programs should be undertaken, immediately following an in-depth analysis of the current levels of skills, aptitudes, and attitudes of the Indian population. It would appear that some non-skilled jobs require no measurement of skill, but certain menial labors might not be attitudinally acceptable to specific Indians. This is one of the key reasons why a survey, or inventory, should be undertaken. More importantly, aptitudes and attitudes toward semi-skilled work (truck driving, welding, cooking, clerical work) should be identified to ascertain the resources of the manpower pool. It is entirely possible that there will be more jobs than available manpower and that it may be necessary to identify non-Reservation talents among the disadvantaged of nearby areas, such as Chandler, Guadalupe, and South Phoenix. For the personal development of the Indians and the economic "upgrading" of the entire area and in keeping with the air training program goals and objectives, both short- and long-range vocational- technical training programs should be undertaken to prepare the Indian population for the professional roles and careers which are being structured within the Arizona State University proposed aviation training program, i.e., highly-skilled technicians in electronics, avionics, powerplant maintenance, private and commercial pilot positions, aviation business management. Given the proper educational 111-39 assistance and motivation before entry into such a program, it is entirely- probable that the Indian will achieve a high degree of success. Historically , he has been identified as possessing above average level manipulatory skills so necessary to much of the technical work in the aviation field. It is believed that this potential can be brought to productive reality by a carefully structured vocational-technical training program. 111-40 Conclusions After a detailed analysis of the proposed training sites, including military and civil flight operations in the vicinity of both sites and the past, present and future economic outlook for the areas surrounding each site, it is concluded that: 1. Of the two proposed training sites evaluated during the study, the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield located on the Gila River Indian Reservation offers the greatest potential as a site for the proposed aviation training center. 2. The use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield as a training site would create no significant problems with other air traffic in the area and would provide for an adequate practice area over the Reservation. 3. The location of an aviation training center on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield will result in significant benefits to the Indian population and will also provide job opportunities to the disadvantaged of the surrounding communities. The center would result in the establishment of approximately 600 new jobs by 1972, of which over 25% could be occupied by the Indians. 4. The ideal operating arrangement for a training center on the Reservation would be to locate the flight training operations on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield and the academic training in the residential area planned for development approximately three miles from the Airfield. 5. The land acreage available at the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield and that offered by the tribal representatives in the proposed residential development area is sufficient for any foreseeable future expansion programs. 6. A short-range inventory/analysis of job skills on the Indian Reservation should be made and a training program undertaken to teach the required skills to qualified personnel for the jobs created by the establishment of a training center and other developments which are occurring on the Reservation. 7. A long-range program should be initiated to identify skills, aptitudes, and attitudes of the total Indian population on the Reservation and a comprehensive pre-vocational/vocational/social program of training be undertaken to prepare the population for the advantages to be derived from the training center and other area development efforts. 111-41 Recommendations On the basis of the foregoing conclusions and the information and data contained in this Section of the report, it is recommended that: 1. Immediate conferences be scheduled with representatives of the Gila River Indian Reservation for the purpose of negotiating long-term lease arrangements for the proposed aviation training center sites selected and discussed in this report. 2. Negotiations be conducted with the U. S. Air Force and other interested organizations for the use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield as the site for the flight operations of the proposed aviation training center. 3. Encouragement and assistance be provided the aviation industry in the establishment of a private, non-profit organization whose primary function will be to establish and operate the flight training portion of the proposed aviation center as a cooperative venture with the University. 4. A short-range inventory /ana lysis of job skills on the Indian Reservation be made and a training program established to teach required skills to qualified personnel for the jobs created during the training center site and facilities development programs. 5. A long-range program be established, in cooperation with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, for the identification of skills, aptitudes, and attitudes of the total population on the Reservation, followed by a comprehensive pre- vocational, vocational/technical and social training program to prepare the Indians for the advantages to be derived from the training center and other area development programs . 111-42 SECTION IV COST AND FINANCING Introduction This section of the Feasibility Study report presents preliminary cost estimates for the establishment and operation of the proposed aviation training center, along with suggested methods for financing these costs. Some of the factors considered in developing the preliminary cost estimates were the classroom and laboratory requirements; administrative space requirements; housing and cafeteria requirements for students, faculty, and staff; the requirements for single- and twin-engine aircraft, with spares; hangar and ramp space requirements; ground support equipment for operations and maintenance; and faculty and staff requirements. This portion of the overall study analyzed financing procedures and patterns of the past, along with sources of funds for site and facilities development, the procurement of equipment, and potential income for under- writing the costs of operation. On the basis of the cost estimates developed and an analysis of financing procedures and sources of funds, a proposed plan for financing the establishment and operation of the proposed center was developed. In developing the cost and financing information related to the physical aspects of the proposed center, it was necessary to examine the characteristics desired and the specific requirements that must be met by the center. It was found that there was no universal pattern by which facilities and real estate are combined to form the desired arrangement. The possible patterns are as many as the schools themselves. There is one element which schools have in common, however, and that is they are all in transition and must look deeply into the future. The new technological developments in both the fields of education and aviation raise new questions regarding education and training, the answers to which will influence the design of the facilities and the center itself. The planning of the proposed center must be far reaching and take into account everything important that is happening or is about to happen to education in America and not just the establishment of a center for the IV- 1 sake of meeting some of aviation's quantitative requirements. In developing cost estimates for the facilities required to meet the future requirements of the proposed center, it was assumed that space of all kinds - instructional, laboratory, residential - would be designed for maximum convertibility. For example, dormitories would be designed for learning, as well as for the living necessities. More attention would be given to the social and psychological needs of the student and to more rewarding interaction between student and teacher. The instructional space would be designed for the greatest possible flex- ibility to meet needs ranging from large lecture to individual study, and it should be readily convertible. Moveable walls for year-to-year operations and operable walls for immediate operation should be the rule, rather than the exception, in the design of the instructional facilities. To achieve comparable flexibility in laboratories is more difficult, but it can and has been done in a number of recently designed institutions. The explosion of scientific knowledge makes yesterday's laboratories obsolete today. Some of the new institutions have shown that laboratories can be flexible and convertible, with designs that arrange utilities and equipment so as not to freeze the pattern of walls and spaces. Closely related to the need for flexibility in the design of the facilities for the proposed center is the need for the full utilization of space, time, people, and things. Flexible facilities mean that space can be readily adapted to use by large groups or small, depending on instructional needs. The facilities of the center should be designed for double or triple duty of the space, and the space and equipment should be designed into the facilities in a manner to permit maximum individual study. Independent study will assume central importance in the proposed center. It is expected that this development will exploit a new maturity in the student and an increased recognition by educators of the power of self- teaching. Independent study is, in part, a form of utilization whereby the center can use the minimum faculty with the maximum student body to greatest advantage. Because teaching talent is in short supply in the general academic community, the faculty should not be wasted on mere exposition of "facts". They will be expected to devote more time to values, concepts, and meaning in very large or small groups. Students wil get many of their "facts" from inanimate devices, such as books, films, tapes, television, teaching machines, and computers, rather than from live teachers. The buildings of the center should be designed to accommodate these new educational technologies as they prove themselves effective. IV-2 The design of the center should also permit better use of time. The utilization of physical facilities in many schools today is poor, whether measured by day, week, or semester. It is planned that the facilities of the proposed center will use more hours of the day and more weeks of the year than is currently being done in most schools. It is expected that the days will start earlier and end later, and that weekends will be used as well. The academic year will stretch to match the calendar. In summary, the design of the center should provide for an environment that favors learning and understanding and intellectual interchange. The architecture and design of the center should help to reconcile the conflict between mass education and the individual and to strike a balance between the economics of education and the needs and values of the student. The foregoing are, at any rate, the factors that were considered in the preliminary planning and which formed the basis for the estimates which are presented in the following parts of this section. Assumptions In developing the cost and financing information for this section of the overall Feasibility Study, the following assumptions were made: 1. It was assumed that one-half of the student body would be enrolled in the flight option of the total program and that the balance of the students would select the non- flight collegiate and technician training options. 2. That the flight training program would include 250 hours of flight training and that the flight time would be accumulated during a period of time equivalent to a standard four-year baccalaureate degree program. 3. That the flight training would be conducted at the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield and all academic activities would be conducted at a site to be selected in the residential development area described in Section III of this report. 4. That the academic activities would be conducted under the direct auspices of Arizona State University and that the flight training would be conducted by a corporation, possibly a non-profit, membership corporation sponsored by the aviation industry. IV- 3 That existing, upgraded curricula will be used initially and that these will be continually improved and designed for use with new educational technologies as they are developed and proven. New techniques and educational materials presently in use by military, industry, and educational institutions will be screened and, wherever possible, put into immediate use. Methodology The following methodology was used in developing the cost and financing information presented in this section: 1. A determination was made of the possible enrollment or size of the student body. 2. Cost factors were based upon student modules of 500, 1000, 1500, and 2000 students. These were further broken down to costs per student. 3. Surveys were made of the facilities of other educational institutions from both a design and cost point of view. 4. Preliminary cost estimates were developed for facilities, equipment, and operations for both the academic and the flight programs. 5. A proposed financing plan was developed in which the University, the aviation industry, and the government each played a role. Development of Cost Factors To arrive at cost estimates for a center of the type envisioned is basically a problem of simple multiplication. The number of square feet of space required by the center multiplied by the unit cost (in dollars per square foot) provides the estimate. While this approach is oversimplified, it nonetheless makes the subject intelligible — a subject which is often made so complex that it becomes incomprehensible. Space Requirements : The space requirements of an educational institution are based primarily on the student enrollment and the educational program. While the planners and architects may save some space by use of designs which may reduce the area in corridors, service centers, etc., the basic decisions which determine space requirements are program decisions and student enrollment. IV-4 In developing the space requirements for the proposed center, it was first necessary to determine an initial and future enrollment level. These levels were established on the basis of the current enrollment in Aeronautical Technology at Arizona State University and on local and national enrollment projections. Current Enrollment in Aeronautical Technology (Arizona State University) ; The Aeronautical Technology program conducted by the Division of Industrial Design and Technology at Arizona State University currently (1966-67) has 325 full-time Aeronautical majors enrolled. Fifty percent (50%) of these are out-of-state students. This program offers two collegiate options with a Bachelor of Science degree and, for the first time during the 1966-67 school year, flight training through a commercial license and an instrument rating was offered under the auspices of the University. The actual flight training is conducted under a contract between the University and a fixed -base operator. Because some of the courses presently (1966-67) offered have never been listed in the Arizona State University catalog, it is anticipated that enrollment in the Aeronautical Technology program will increase significantly when the new catalog (1967-68) is published. On the basis of the foregoing, it is estimated that the enrollment in this program will expand to at least 750 full-time students by September 1968,. the beginning of the 1968-69 school year. This is also the target date for activating the portion of the proposed training center in the residential development area on the Gila River Indian Reservation described in Section III of this report. Projected Arizona State University Enrollment ; During a long-range planning study conducted by Arizona State University in late 1965, the future student enrollment was estimated. Figure IV-1 shows the projected on-campus head count, on-campus full-time equivalent (FTE) , and the extension and residence center enrollments. An analysis of the estimates presented in Figure IV-1 indicates a growth of 68-69% total increase in enrollment during the period 1966 to fall semester of 1974, with an increase of 78% between fall semester 1968 and fall semester 1974. Enrollment records of Division of Industrial Design & Technology, College of Engineering Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona. ^ A Report to the Board of Regents on Long Range Planning for the Ten-Year Period Ending June 30, 1975 , Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, December 20, 1965. IV-5 PROJECTED ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENT (1966-1975) Year 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 On Campus On Campus Extension and Head Count* FTE Enrollment* Residence Centers 20,750 16,766 3,600 22,250 18,245 3,900 23,650 19,393 4,200 24,900 20,418 4,500 26,000 21,320 4,800 27,000 22,140 5,100 28,000 22,960 5,400 29,000 23,780 5,700 30,000 24,600 6,000 * Does not include Extension enrollment in off -campus residence centers, shown separately in last column. Source: A Report to the Board of Regents on Long Range Planning , Arizona State University, 20 Dec 65. Figure IV- 1 IV-6 If the 697o growth rate is applied to the student population in the Aeronautical Technology program enrolled at present (1966-67), the total enrollment in 1974 would be 549. If the 78% growth rate is applied to the student population estimated for the fall of 1968 (750) , the 1974 enrollment would be 1,335. Growth in National Enrollment : Another approach taken to project the possible enrollment of the proposed training center was to examine the potential growth of college enrollment nationally. Figure IV-2 shows the estimated growth in enrollment for the period 1965-1975 in numbers and in percentage increments for three different projection rates.- 5 If the average percentage increases are applied to the 1966-67 Aeronautical Technology enrollment (325) for the period to 1970 and again to 1975, the enrollment by 1975 would be 1,058. If the 84% average increase between 1970 and 1975 is applied to the enrollment estimate of 750 (fall 1968), the enrollment in 1975 would be 1,380. The latter estimate is considered most reasonable and is probably overconservative when compared with the growth in requirements for skilled aviation personnel, as developed in Section I of this report. Enrollment Summary : On the basis of the foregoing projections, the enrollment in the proposed aviation training center could range from slightly over 500 to approximately 1,400. It is quite possible, based on the dynamic growth of the aviation industry and the operating concept advocated for the proposed center, that the enrollment will be on the order of 2,000 by 1972. A center with its own faculty and organization, serving at least 500 students, is probably the minimum essential for efficiency and economy. Similarly, a college with 2,000 students probably represents the upper limits, if the needs of individuality, breadth of training, and scope and initiative are fully provided. In this section, the planning and estimating was based on student modules of 500, 1000, 1500, and 2000. Emphasis, however, is placed on the concept of a center designed to accommodate a 1000-student enrollment, initially, with provisions for expansion to 2000 by 1972. If continued dynamic growth of the industry and its requirements for skilled personnel justified further expansion beyond the 2000-student level, such expansion could be accomplished on a modular basis. The Economics of Higher Education , U. S. Office of Education, Washington. D. C, 1962. IV- 7 GROWTH IN COLLEGE ENROLLMENT Proiections 1965 1970 7o Increase 1975 7o Increase I - Assumes Rate of College Attend- ance will be Unchanged 4,337,000 5,205,000 837 5,941,000 887o II - Assumes Rate Will Increase but only Because of Tendenc of Offspring of College-Trained Fa to Go to College y thers 4,664,000 5,960,000 787o 7,090,000 847o !II - Assumes Rate of Increase will Continue 5,220,000 6,959,000 757o 8,616,000 807o Average Percentage Increase 777o 847 Source: The Economics of Higher Education , U.S. Office of Education, 1962. Figure IV- 2 IV- 8 Classroom/Laboratory Space Requirements Per Student : Following a determination of current and projected enrollment levels, it was then necessary to develop estimates of space requirements for individual students for both educational and residential facilities. These were developed by surveying a number of institutions, including universities and secondary schools. One survey was conducted by Arizona State University in 1965 to determine the net space available per FTE student in nine Western and Midwestern universities and colleges. 4" The results of this survey are shown in Figure IV-3. The net assignable space per student shown in Figure IV-3 includes both classrooms and laboratories. An analysis of the information reveals that the average net assignable space in the nine institutions surveyed is approximately 144.5 square feet. "But it has been suggested that with more efficient utilization, 125 square feet should be adequate. "5 Mr. Walter A. Netch, Jr., of the Skidmore, Owings and Merrill architectural firm, has had an opportunity to confront the problem of campus planning in a number of places and he calls for the allocation of 150 square feet per under- graduate student and 200 square feet per graduate student. By way of comparison, the present (1966-67) net assignable square feet of space per FTE student at Arizona State University is 78.3. The past, current, and projected space available per student is shown in Figure IV-4. Construction programs have been recommended, in order to achieve a minimum standard of 120 net assignable square feet per FTE student by 1 July 1975. The Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., of New York, surveyed 100 secondary schools which were built during the period 1956 to 1958." The area per student, as well as the unit costs, were computed. The schools were also sorted into geographic regions. Seventy-two of the schools had data available in sufficiently comparable form for inclusion in Figure IV-5. ^ A Report to Board of Regents , op. cit. ^Bricks and Mortarboards, A Report on College Planning and Building , Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1966, p. 145. " The Cost of a Schoolhouse , Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1960. IV-9 NET ASSIGNABLE BUILDING SPACE PER STUDENT ENROLLED* Institution Univ. of Calif. (Berkeley) Univ. of 111. (Urbana- Champaign) Oklahoma State University- University of Oklahoma Western Illinois Univ. (Macomb) Calif. St. Polytechnic (San Luis Obispo) Humboldt State College Fresno State College Chico State College * Non- residential net assignable sq. ft. of building space per full-time equivalent student enrolled. Applicable Net Sq. Ft. Year Per Student 1955 153.0 1962 148.2 1960 139.5 1960 130.5 1962 116.6 1955 180.0 1955 181.0 1955 130.0 1955 122.0 Source: A Report to the Board of Regents on Long Range Planning , Arizona State University, 20 Dec 65. Figure IV-3 IV- 10 NON-HOUSING SPACE PER FTE STUDENT AND NORMAL CAPACITY OF FACILITIES ACTUAL AND PROJECTED 1964-65 THROUGH 1974-75 First Semester Of On- Campus Enrollment Total FTE Net Square Ft. of Building Space* Net Assignable Sq. Ft. Per FTE Student Actual Recommended Normal FTE Capacity 1964-65 16,921 13,671 974,280 71.3 120 8,119 1965-66 19,198 15,924 1,092,835 68.6 120 9,107 1966-67 20,750 16,766 1,312,660 78.3 120 10,939 1967-68 22,250 18,245 1,545,070 84.7 120 12,876 1968-69 23,650 19,393 1,681,698 86.7 120 14,014 1969-70 24,900 20,418 1,735,032 85.0 120 14,459 1970-71 26,000 21,320 1,938,553 90.9 120 16,155 1971-72 27,000 22,140 2,173,888 98.2 120 18,116 1972-73 28,000 22,960 2,371,027 103.3 120 19,759 1973-74 29,000 23,780 2,661,695 111.9 120 22,181 1974-75 * Excludin 30,000 2 elementary 24,600 training 2,952,030 school. Sun Dev: 120.0 Ll stadiui n. swim 120 mine 24,600 pool, student residence halls, and facilities not located on main campus. Source: A Report to the Board of Regents on Long Range Planning , Arizona State University, 20 Dec 65. Figure IV-4 IV- 11 MEDIAN SPACE REQUIREMENTS FOR SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN SQ. FT. /STUDENT BY REGIONS Auxiliary Region Classrooms Areas ( 1) Service Total Northeast 34 39 18 116(2) Southeast 27 24 15 75 North Central 38 37 45 117 South Central 26 31 38 78 Western 35 32 24 95 (1) The auxiliary areas include libraries, music rooms, administration, cafeteria, gymnasium and auditorium. (2) The totals shown here are the medial totals and are not the sum of the medians of each category. For this reason, the columns will not add across. Source: The Cost of a Schoolhouse , Educational Facilities Labs, 1960. Figure IV- 5 IV- 12 It is interesting to note that most of the secondary schools had an average overall space allocation of more than 95 square feet per student, 80% of the minimum considered for universities and colleges. The Northeast and North Central regions were very close to this minimum with 116 and 117 square feet per student, respectively. This may be a reflection of the differences in climate, however, where outside space is often used as corridor space and in part the additional auxiliary areas which require more service and structure areas. The climate factor may also be significant in the apparently low space/student allocation at Arizona State University in comparison with comparable schools. Student Residence Space Requirements : During a study of college housing in theearly 1960's, an analysis was made of space and cost data for a number of student residence structures built during the late 1950 's.' The space allocation per student data is presented in Figure IV-6. A review of the information contained in Figure IV-6 indicates an average allocation of space per student to be slightly over 275 square feet, By way of comparison, recently constructed dormitories at Arizona State University had an average of 205 square feet allocated to each student. These average figures include the cafeteria space. The space indicated is for undergraduate single students. Architects have. recommended 250 square feet for graduate students and, of course, much more than this for married students. Summary of Space Requirements : On the basis of the enrollment and space allocation data collected and analyzed, as set forth above, it is concluded that the proposed aviation training center should be designed to accommodate 1,000 students, initially, with provisions to expand to a 2,000-student level within four years after start-up. The design of the center should also permit further growth on a modular basis, as future increases in enrollment justify. It is also concluded that a minimum of 120 square feet of assignable space per student should be used for educational facilities (classrooms/ laboratories) and 275 square feet per student for residence facilities in all future planning for the proposed training center. On this basis, the initial educational space requirements, excluding student residence halls, swimming pools, airplane hangars, etc. ? would be on the order of 120,000 square feet, with plans to grow to 240,000 square feet by 1972, or four years after target start-up date. ' College Students Live Here, A Study of College Housing , Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1961. o Space requirements for hangars or maintenance shops and other "special" facilities will be shown when those items are discussed. IV- 13 SURVEY OF DORMITORY SPACE ALLOCATION School Dorm. No. Floors Area/Student University of Chicago Stanley R. Pierce Hall 10 309.7 sq. ft Colorado State Univ. Green Hall 3 245.0 Newsom Hall 3 251.0 Aylesworth Hall 3 208.0 Ellis Hall 3 208.0 Allison Hall 3 224.0 University of Oregon Walton Hall 3&4 231.0 University of Penna. Women's Residence Hall 5 256.0 Stephens College, Mo. West Hall 4 260.6 Syracuse University Sadler Hall 8 273.4 Univ. of Washington Terry Hall 11 345.0 Lander Hall 8 253.0 Wesleyan University Foss Hill I 2&3 513.0 Source: College Students Live Here , Educational Facilities Labs, 1961. Figure IV-6 IV- 14 Unit Cost Factors : As stated earlier, the two elements which determine the cost of an institution are the space required (square feet in this instance) and the unit cost (dollars per square foot). The space requirements for the proposed training center have been developed above and the next step is to develop the unit cost or dollars per square foot of required space. It is recognized that the cost per square foot basis for costing has its limitations because it does not say anything about the quality of materials and construction, which add up to the cost per square foot, and, also, because it does not relate to the usefulness of the space provided. In order to develop an acceptable cost factor to use for planning purposes, however, it was assumed that the quality of material and construction, along with space usefulness, were comparable for the various institutions surveyed, Classroom/Laboratory Costs : One survey of costs involved eight universities and colleges which used innovative and unique designs to accommodate new educational technologies, such as educational television, computer-assisted teaching systems, study carrels, etc, , and provided for maximum flexibility and convertibility. The results of this survey are presented in Figure IV-7. The average cost per square foot for the institutions surveyed was $23.50. This is somewhat higher than costs experienced in the construction of more conventional buildings. For example, the Arizona State University construction costs have been averaging $16-$18 per square foot in recent years s In the Educational Facilities Laboratories survey of the 100 secondary schools built in the 1956-1958 time period, it was found that the average costs ranged from a low of $13.70 per square foot in the South to $17.84 in the Northeast." The results of the Educational Facilities Laboratories survey are shown in Figure IV- 8.. It is interesting to note the influence of the mechanical costs (wiring, heating, plumbing and ventilating) on the total cost of the buildings. These vary from 217o of the total cost in the South to 327o in the Northeast. This is, in part, due to the climate which affects not only the size of a building but also the unit cost. ° The Cost of a Schoolhouse , op. cit. IV- 15 A SURVEY OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES COSTS PER SQUARE FOOT* Institution Stephens College, Mo. Chicago Teachers College, North Columbia University Law School Southern Illinois University University College, Miami Retina Foundation, Boston Colorado College Rice University, Texas Cost/Sq. Ft. $ 22.00 19.00 26.00/27.00 23.00/24.00 15.26 37.25 19.66 22.00 * Includes classrooms and laboratories and equipment. Source: Bricks and Mortarboards , Educational Facilities Labs, 1966. Figure IV-7 IV-16 MEDIAN COST PER SQUARE FOOT BY REGION Total Region Bids. Cost Northeast $ 17.84 South 13.70 Middlewest 14.91 West 14.64 Mechanical Cost Bid; W/0 $ y. Cost Mechanical $ 5.69 12.15 2.89 10.81 4.34 10.57 4.60 10.04 Source: The Cost of a Schoolhouse, Educational Facilities Labs, 1960. Figure IV- 8 IV-17 On the basis of the data obtained during the Educational Facilities Laboratories survey, it was possible to develop not only the median cost per square foot ($15.99) but also a distribution of that cost to all of the elements involved in the construction of a building*, The distribution of the per square foot cost to the elements which make up this cost are shown in Figure IV-9. An examination of the cost information contained in Figure IV-9 reveals why it is difficult to keep construction costs down. There is, obviously, no room for dramatic reductions in the cost figures for the individual cost elements. The only means for achieving economy is by careful attention to every single detail of each of the elements which make up the per square foot cost. Student Residence Costs : In a recent study of college housing, data was acquired which permitted the development of costs per square foot and also costs per student for both the buildings and furnishings. ■*■" The costs for thirteen (13) buildings built by eight (S) institutions are shown in Figure IV- 10. An examination of the information presented in Figure IV-10 shows the costs ranging from a low of $3,252 to a high of $10,791, for an average of $4,813 per student. These are building costs without furnishings. The furnishings costs range from a low of $210 to a high of $602, for an average of $371 per student. The average total cost is $5,184 per student. The costs per square foot of structure ranged from a low of $12.45 to a high of $23.13, for an average of $17.10 per square foot. This is somewhat lower than the cost for the educational facilities surveyed, primarily because of the innovative approaches that were used in the educational facilities surveyed. By way of comparison, the recent dormitory construction costs at Arizona State University were approximately $20 per square foot, including furnishings. It is interesting to note, however, that the furnishings costs averaged only $175 per student as compared to $371 in the institutions surveyed. The reason for this apparent difference is that many of the furnishings in the Arizona State University dormitories are built-in and are considered as part of the construction costs, resulting in increased construction costs and reduced furnishings costs. 1 College Students Live Here , op. cit. IV- 18 MEDIAN COST PER SQUARE FOOT* Cost Item Excavation Footings 6c Foundation Structural Frame Structural Floors Roof Deck Roofing & Insulation Exterior Walls Interior Partitions Finished Floors Ceilings Plumbing Heating & Ventilating Electrical & Lighting Fixtures Misc. Equipment (Built-in) Contractor Job Overhead Cost/Sq. Ft. Gross Area 7o Total Cost $ 0.34 2 1.00 6 1.57 10 1.25 8 0.50 3 0.45 3 2.00 12 2.45 15 0.40 3 0.28 2 1.15 7 1.90 12 1.45 9 0.75 5 0.50 3 Total $15.99 100% * Based on a survey of 72 secondary schools with all costs adjusted to the 1959 "Engineering News Record Index" to account for inflationary and regional differences due to year built and location. Source: The Cost of a Schoolhouse , Educational Facilities Labs, 1960. Figure IV-9 IV- 19 SURVEY OF STUDENT RESIDENCE COSTS Dorm. No. Floors Costs* Furnishings School Per Student Per Sq Ft Cost/Student Univ. of Chicago Pierce Hall 10 $6740 $21.76 $602 Colo. State Univ. Green Hall 3 3737 15.23 256 Newsom Hall 3 3431 13.67 237 Aylesworth Hall 3 3350 16.09 210 Ellis Hall 3 3252 15.61 210 Allison Hall 3 3378 15.05 211 Univ. of Oregon Walton Hall 3&4 3548 15.34 471 Univ. of Penna. Women ' s Res idence 5 5497 21.47 527 Stephens Coll., Mo. West Hall 4 4650 17.80 443 Syracuse Univ. Sadler Hall 8 6327 23.13 358 Univ. of Wash. Terry Hall 11 4298 12.45 439 Lander Hall 8 3468 13.69 509 Wesleyan Univ. Foss Hill I 2&3 10791 21.02 - * Excluding land and furnishings. Source: College Students Live Here , Educational Facilities Labs, 1961. Figure IV- 10 IV-20 Summary of Cost Factors : On the basis of the cost data collected and analyzed for this section of the report, it is concluded that the costs for the proposed aviation training center will range from $20 to $25 per square foot for the educational facilities and from $17 to $18 per square foot for the student residence facilities. These facilities unit costs are somewhat higher than have been experienced in the past; however, these added costs will provide greatly improved flexibility and convertibility and are expected to result in more efficient and effective teaching. The flexibility and convertibility costs more than conventional construction but, in the long run, it will more than pay for itself because of the fact that the facilities will be more productive. Facility Cost Estimates for Proposed Center After developing average space requirements per student and unit costs for construction of educational and housing facilities, it was then possible to develop preliminary cost estimates for the facilities required in the proposed training center. As determined in Section III of this report, two operational sites on the Gila River Indian Reservation are being considered for the proposed center --an academic center in the residential development area and a flight center on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. All students will use the academic center on a full-time basis and one-half of the students will use the flight center. The student residence facilities will be located in the residential area as a part of the academic center. In developing the cost estimates for the proposed center, due consideration was given to the special purpose of the center and the manner in which it would operate, as these factors might contribute to construction costs, economy, and efficiency of its operation. Many of the expensive specialized facilities, such as necessary on the Arizona State University main campus in Tempe, will either not be necessary, be reduced to a minimum, or will be uniquely provided. Every opportunity to make use of the central facilities at the Tempe campus will be made wherever feasible and wherever conducive to the purpose of the center. For example, the program envisioned for the center does not include or require a large central union building, large central business operations, large auditora, stadia, or other athletic plants to accommodate thousands of spectators. Some central physical facilities will be necessary, such as cooling, heating, and other utilities; but on the whole, the life of the center will revolve around its own unique environs, its own imaginative buildings, combining many traditional features, a multi-purpose dining hall, a compact library and/or an aviation information center, activities IV- 21 center, and playing fields, combined in a new, fresh "condominium" style. The key concept envisioned for the center is effective, attractive, multi-purpose, functional structures. The educational and residential facilities and adjacent outdoor area will be designed and landscaped to function harmoniously. Separate residential quarters, for both male and female students, will be provided (because of the nature of the center, the female enrollment will be very limited) , connected and served by common facilities, including the dining hall. The dining hall could also be designed to serve as a cultural center, suitable for dances, skits, dramatic performances, and as a possible center for forum discussions of a contemporary nature. By skillful design and location, additional gymnasium/ recreational facilities can be envisioned to serve the larger needs of the center and without extensive additional space being devoted to locker rooms, dressing rooms, and overduplication of showers and washroom facilities, if access is easy and convenient from the men and women's residential quarters. The cost estimates for the educational, residential, and flight center facilities were developed separately below, based on the space and cost factors developed in preceding paragraphs and with due consideration for the design and operational concepts discussed above. Educational Facilities Cost Estimates ; The preliminary cost estimates for the educational facilities developed below include both classroom and laboratory space and general equipment. The space factor used in developing the estimates is based on 120 square feet of space for each full- time equivalent student, as developed earlier in this section of the report, The unit cost factors for construction of educational facilities, as developed earlier, were estimated to range from $20 to $25 per square foot. This would be applicable to facilities which incorporated new, innovative approaches to education and with provisions in the design for maximum flex- ibility and convertibility. In developing the preliminary cost estimates for planning purposes, the figure of $22.50 per square foot unit cost is used for the construction of the educational facilities. The space requirements and costs for construction of educational facilities for the proposed training center, based on the above discussion, are shown in Figure TV-11 for the four modules of students. On the basis of the enrollment analysis made earlier, it was concluded that the center should be designed for a minimum of 1,000 students, initially, with provisions for expansion to 2,000 by 1972. The costs shown in Figure IV-11 indicate that the educational facilities would be $2,700,000 for the 1,000- student center. IV-22 EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES COST ESTIMATES Student Module Space ReqmtSc in Sq e Ft. Costs at $22 S 50/Sq e Ft. 1 500 60,000 $ 1,350,000 1000 120 , 000 2,700,000 1500 180,000 4,050,000 2000 240,000 1 5,400,000 Figure IV- 11 IV-23 The cost for a 2,000-student center is estimated at $5,400,000 — double the 1,000-student module. It is, of course, recognized that doubling the enrollment, as presently envisioned between 1968 and 1972, will not necessarily result in doubling the cost of the initial design for a student body of 1,000. For planning purposes, however, the basic space and unit costs are applied. Student Residence Facilities Cost Estimates ; The cost estimates developed for the construction of student residence facilities are based on the philosophy that living in any dormitory will teach a student something, and that during the detailed design of these facilities it must be decided what the institution wants the student to learn there and plan the buildings accordingly. In the designing of the residential facilities for the proposed aviation training center, consideration will be given to the utilization of these facilities for supplementing or reinforcing the academic program, making them the partner to the classrooms and laboratories, as in the new housing at Michigan State; making the dormitory itself theclassroom, as in Stephens College's West Hall; or making the dormitory the focus of a variety of learning aids - from tutors to television to computer-based, multi-media student carrels for study. Such design approaches are expected to be not only feasible but also economical, in spite of the costs. With the avail- ability of such innovative facilities, it is anticipated that a high percentage of the students will live in these residential facilities, particularly the out-of-state students. An examination of the student enrollment in the current Arizona State University Aeronautical Technology program revealed that over 50% of the students were from out-of-state. The average for the University as a whole is 15% out-of-state enrollment. This seems to indicate a general shortage of aviation-oriented courses in colleges and universities, resulting in higher out-of-state enrollment percentages in those schools which provide aviation-oriented programs. It is anticipated that the percentage of out-of-state enrollments in the proposed training center will be even higher because of the "national" character of the center and, also, because of the new, innovative approaches to education that are being planned in the design of not only the educational facilities but also in the student residential facilities. Because of the anticipated higher (estimated 75%) out-of-state enrollment and attraction of the innovative educational character of the student IV- 24 residence facilities in the proposed training center, it is believed at least 75% of the total student enrollment will live in the residential facilities at the academic center. This is the figure that is used in estimating the costs for these facilities and is in keeping with the increases in the percentage of enrollment population living in student housing facilities being anticipated and planned for in many of the new educational institutions. For example, Pennsylvania State is planning to house 75% of its undergraduates in student housing. The preliminary cost estimates for the student residence facilities at the proposed aviation training center were developed on the basis that 75% of the student body would be living in these facilities, that the facilities would be designed to provide 250 square feet of space per student, and at a cost of $17.50 per square foot construction cost. The preliminary cost estimates are shown in Figure IV-12. On the basis of the information developed as shown in Figure IV-12, it appears that the initial student residence facility cost will range from $3,281,250 for the 1,000 student module to $6,562,500 for the 2,000 student module. These construction costs will be experienced during the period 1968-1972. It must be noted that no provisions have been made in the estimates for married student or apartment- type or faculty housing. These items will be analyzed in detail during the preliminary design phase and, if required, will be priced during that phase of the program. Flight Center Facilities Costs : The facilities required at the flight center include an operations building, hangars, and ramp space for maintenance and parking of the aircraft. The operations building must be designed to provide office space for administrative personnel and flight instructors, a minimum conference room, and space for synthetic flight trainers. No provisions are provided in the estimates for future expansion of the staff for R&D purposes or for special R&D facilities which are expected to be developed. These will be considered separately, if or when they are developed. Operations Building Cost Estimates : Under the operations costs portion of this section, it has been determined that a total of 22, 43, 63, and 85 personnel, respectively, would be required to operate the flight center for the four student modules considered throughout the study. The IV- 25 STUDENT RESIDENCE FACILITIES COST ESTIMATES No. in. Residence Space Cost at Student Module at 75% Rqmts . $17.50/Sq. Ft. 500 375 93,750 $ 1,640,625 1000 750 187,500 3,281,250 1500 1125 281,250 4,921,875 2000 1500 375,000 6,562,500 Figure IV- 12 IV- 26 operations building would be required to provide space for 17, 34, 50, and 67 people, respectively, for the four modules, with the balance of the total numbers of personnel (maintenance) being housed in the hangars. By using the 120 square feet space allocation per individual and a $17.50 per square foot unit cost, it was possible to calculate the costs for that part of the operations building occupied by personnel. In addition, space will be required to house a battery of synthetic trainers. It is planned that one trainer will be provided for each 50 flight students, resulting in a need for 5, 10, 15, and 20 trainers, respectively, for the four student modules. Using the new Link General Aviation Trainer (GAT-1) as a basis, each trainer would require an area of 250 square feet of floor space. On the basis of the foregoing, the total space and costs were calculated for the operations building as shown in Figure IV- 13. The space requirements are 6,580 square feet for the initial 1,000 student module and 13,040 square feet for the 2,000 student module to be provided by 1972. Preliminary cost estimates for the 1,000 student module are $115,150 and $228,200 for the 2,000 student module. Hangar Cost Estimates : The hangar cost estimates are based on an average construction cost of $10 per square foot. The number of square feet of space required to perform the necessary maintenance inside the hangars is a function of the total number of aircraft in the training pool. For the purpose of this study, it was assumed that one- third of the total number of aircraft in the pool would be the maximum number inside the maintenance hangar at any one time, and that 1,600 square feet of floor space would be provided for each aircraft. This space would provide for all the floor space required in the maintenance operation -- for both single- and twin-engine aircraft. On the basis of the foregoing factors, it was possible to calculate the space and cost estimates, as shown in Figure IV- 14. The space requirements for the 1,000 student module which would have a maximum of 7 of its 20 allocated aircraft in the hangar at any one time are 11,200 square feet, costing an estimated $112,000. For the 2,000 student module, 13 of its 38 aircraft hangared at any one time would require 20,800 square feet of space at an estimated cost of $208,000. These cost estimates include ramp space for parking. IV-27 OPERATIONS BUILDING COST ESTIMATES Student Module Space Requirements Cost at $17.50/Sq. Ft. Pers Trnrs Total 500 2,040 1,250 3,290 $ 57,575 1000 4,080 2,500 6,580 115,150 1500 6,000 3,750 9,750 170,625 2000 8,040 5,000 13,040 228,200 Figure IV-13 I IV- 28 HANGAR SPACE AND COST ESTIMATES No. A/C Space Required Cost at Student Module Hangared at 1600 Sq Ft/Aircraft $10/Sq Ft 500 4 6,400 $ 64,000 1000 7 11,200 112,000 1500 9 14,400 144,000 2000 13 20,800 208,000 Figure IV- 14 IV- 29 •• Total Facilities Cost Summary : After the development of cost estimates for each of the various types of facilities required for the proposed training center, it is then possible to summarize the total estimated facilities costs, as shown in Figure IV-15. An analysis of the cost estimates presented in Figure IV-15 shows that the cost per student for facilities runs $6,224, $6,208, $6,191, and $6,199, respectively, for the four student modules considered. Equipment Cost Estimates Two types of equipment are required for operation of the proposed aviation training center -- the standard equipment normally required in classrooms, laboratories, and administrative offices of an educational institution for the academic portion of the center and that equipment required for flight training operations. The equipment required in the academic portion of the center has been accounted for in the cost factors used in developing the facilities cost estimates. The per square foot cost experience for educational facilities in recent years, for example, has been $16-$ 18, including the cost of equipment. The figure used in this study has been $22.50 per square foot for educational facilities, which should be adequate to provide for the flexibility and expandability requirements and, also, for some of the new educational technologies which are now available. The far-reaching, higher-cost equipment related to computer-based systems will be priced and financed separately as they become available. The equipment required for flight training operations, along with cost estimates for such equipment, has been developed and are presented below. These requirements include the number of and type aircraft, the number of synthetic trainers, and the operations and maintenance support equipment. Aircraft : An estimate of the number of aircraft required to conduct the flight training program for each of the four student modules was predicated on the following: 1. Each student will complete a total of 250 hours of flight during a four-year equivalent program. 2. The flight training will be conducted in light, two- place, single-engine and light, twin-engine aircraft. 3. Each student will receive 180 hours of basic flight training in single-engine aircraft and 70 hours of advanced flight training in twin-engine aircraft. 4. Aircraft will be utilized eight (8) flight hours per day. IV- 30 v » TOTAL FACILITIES COST ESTIMATES Facilities Required Student Modules 500 1000 1500 2000 Educational $1,350,000 $2,700,000 $4,050,000 $ 5,400,000 Student Residence 1,640,625 3,281,250 4,921,875 6,562,500 Operations Bldg. 57,575 115,150 170,625 228,200 Hangar Total Costs 64,000 112,000 144,000 208,000 $3,112,200 $6,208,400 $9,286,500 $12,398,700 1 ^ Figure IV- 15 IV- 31 5. The number of spare aircraft will be 15% of the number required for the training program. 6. Flight training operations will be conducted five (5) days per week, 50 weeks per year, for a total of 250 days per year. On the basis of the foregoing, the following equations were developed for determining the number of aircraft required in the training program: 1. Single-Engine Aircraft No. Students (250, 500, 750, or 1000) X 180 hrs/Student x 1>15 4 Yrs X 2000 hrs/yr/aircraf t 2. Twin-Engine Aircraft No. Students (250, 500, 750, or 1000) X 70 hrs/Student x 1.15 4 Yrs X 2000 hrs/yr/aircraf t During the study, an analysis was also made of the types of aircraft available for use in the training program. The analysis revealed that aircraft suitable for the purpose and adequately equipped with flight and navigational instruments could be procured for an estimated cost of $15,000 and $50,000, respectively, for single- and twin-engine aircraft. Having determined the number of aircraft required and costs per aircraft, the total costs for aircraft for the four modules were then developed, as shown in Figure IV-16. The results indicate a requirement for 20 aircraft, 14 single-engine (S.E.) and 6 multi-engine (M.E.), for the 1,000 student module, at a total cost estimate of $510,000. A total of 38 aircraft (27 S.E. and 11 M.E.) are required for the 2,000 student module, at a total cost estimate of $955,000. Ground Support Equipment ; The ground support equipment required in the proposed training program will be of a less complex nature than generally found on larger airports due to the light aircraft planned for use in the program. No special equipment is required other than general shop equipment, such as sheet metal tools, battery service tools, spark plug cleaner and tester, etc. Equipment required for repair and test of electronics is the high-dollar equipment needed for the operation. IV-32 AIRCRAFT COST ESTIMATES No. No. Cost Cost Total Student Module S.E. A/C M.E. A/C S.E. A/C M.E. A/C Cost 500 7 4 $105,000 $200,000 $305,000 1000 14 6 210,000 300,000 510,000 1500 20 8 300,000 400,000 700,000 2000 27 11 405,000 550,000 955,000 Figure IV- 16 IV- 3 3 For planning purposes, it is estimated that the ground support equipment costs will be 10% of the acquisition costs of the aircraft. The costs, based on this estimate, are shown in Figure IV- 1/. S ynthetic Trainers : It is planned to acquire a number of synthetic trainers which are capable of realistically simulating the flight characteristics of the type aircraft being flown by the students. The trainers will be used to teach flight skills to the basic pilots, to upgrade the student with instruction in instrument and navigational procedures, to safely conduct emergency procedures, and to stimulate interest in advanced training. The trainers should be capable of providing full motion, including rough air simulation; realistic engine and airframe sounds to put the student into the most realistic training situation; and typical instrument panel arrangements of modular design, so that they may be readily changed to represent different aircraft types. Both single- and twin-engine trainers are planned. It is planned to provide one trainer for each block of 50 flight students, at a ratio of one twin-engine to four single-engine trainers. The number of trainers and costs for each module are shown in Figure IV- 18. Costs are based on estimates of $10,000 and $18,000 for the single- and twin-engine trainers, respectively. The training provided with the trainers will be in addition to the flight time in aircraft to upgrade the quality of the overall training activity. Consideration will be given to the substitution of trainer -ime for flight time, if controlled research programs can provide the appropriate data necessary to justify the substitution with the particular trainers in use. Summary of Equipment Cost Estimates : Using the information developed in the preceding paragraphs, the total equipment cost estimates were tabulated and are shown in Figure IV-19. An examination of the total costs for equipment required in support of flight training program shows costs of $1,574, $1,354. $1,259, and $1,282 per student for the four student modules, respectively. When the above figures are added to the total facilities cost estimates presented in Figure IV- 15, the total investment for the proposed training center per student becomes $7,798, $7,562, $7,450, and $7,481 for the four modules, respectively. U These per student costs pertain only to the flight students, which represent one-half of the student modules. IV-34 GROUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT COST ESTIMATES Student Module Costs 500 1000 1500 2000 $ 30,500 51,000 70,000 95,500 i i Figure IV- 17 IV- 3 5 SYNTHETIC TRAINER COST ESTIMATES No. S.E. No. M.E. Student Module Trainers Trainers Costs 500 4 1 $ 58,000 1000 8 2 116,000 1500 12 3 174,000 2000 16 4 232,000 Figure IV- 18 IV-36 SUMMARY OF EQUIPMENT COST ESTIMATES Equipment Student Modules 500 1000 1500 2000 Aircraft $ 305,000 $ 510,000 $ 700,000 $ 955,000 Ground Support Equipment 30,500 51,000 70,000 95,500 Synthetic Trainers 58,000 116,000 174,000 232,000 Total $ 393,500 $ 677,000 $ 944,000 $1,282,500 Figure IV- 19 IV-37 Operations Cost Estimates In keeping with the concept of the proposed aviation training center, as envisioned throughout this report, two centers of operation will be considered in developing operating cost estimates -- the academic center and the flight center. These are both treated separately and are based on the following general guidelines which have been developed on the basis of current Arizona State University experience: 1. Faculty and staff personnel are provided at a ratio of 1 to 4 or 5 students. 2. Staff and administrative personnel are provided at a ratio of 1 to 1 professional or faculty member. 3. Food and dormitory services personnel are provided at a ratio of 1 to 9 or 10 students. More specific rules for developing cost estimates are presented with each specific cost element as it is developed. The cost estimates allow for annual increases in per capita student cost from 9 to 107 o in anticipation of a continuing increase in the price of supplies and equipment, as well as normal salary adjustments. Academic Center Operating Cost Estimates : The costs for operation of the academic center are divided between personnel and other costs (operations, travel, etc.). On the basis of the guidelines set forth above, the total personnel requirements were estimated and these are set forth in Figure IV-20, ranging from a total of 96 for the 500 student module to 410 for the 2,000 student module. As greater use is made of new educational technologies, the faculty to student ratio will be reduced because of greater emphasis on individual study. Such reductions, however, will be offset by a requirement for technicians, educational psychologists, media specialists, etc., who will be required to develop and maintain instructional material and equipment. After developing the personnel requirements, as set forth in Figure IV-20, costs were then developed for the four modules on the basis of average annual salaries of $10,000 for faculty members, $4,800 for staff and administrative personnel, and $3,600 for food and dormitory services personnel. Each of these averages includes part-time student employees, with higher percentages of low-income, part-time personnel in the latter categories. The cost estimates for personnel are set forth in Figure IV-21. IV-38 PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS FOR OPERATION OF ACADEMIC CENTER 1 Staff Food & \ Student Module Faculty & Admin. Dorm. Serv. Total 500 23 23 50 96 1000 45 45 110 200 1500 68 68 166 302 2000 90 j 90 230 410 1 , ' . Figure IV- 20 IV- 3 9 PERSONNEL COST ESTIMATES (ANNUAL) FOR ACADEMIC CENTER Staff & Food & Student Module Faculty Admin. Dorm. Serv. Total 500 $ 230,000 $ 110,400 $ 180,000 $ 520,400 1000 450,000 216,000 396,000 1,062,000 1500 680,000 326,400 597,000 1,603,400 2000 900,000 432,000 828,000 2,160,000 Figure IV-21 IV-40 Personnel costs or salary and wage expenses have represented slightly more than one-half of the total expenditures at Arizona State University for the past several years. 12 The ,r other" expenditures covered operations, travel, capital, and services. Using this general guideline as a basis and a per student wage and salary estimate of approximately $1,000 derived from Figure IV-21, an "other costs" figure of $1,000 per student was used for developing the overall operating costs for the academic center. By adding this cost element to the personnel cost estimates developed in Figure IV-21, the total annual cost of operation for the academic center was estimated, as shown in Figure IV- 22. An examination of the information in Figure IV-22 indicates a total annual cost of approximately $2,000 per student for the proposed academic center. The current total cost per FTE student at Arizona State University is approximately $1,700.1-* This is considered a reasonable cost when viewed in the light of the new educational technologies to be employed. It is also in line with the 1974-75 estimates for FTE students (24,600) and the projected operating budget ($57,000,000), resulting in an estimated annual cost of $2,320 per FTE student at that time. 14 Flight Center Operating Cost Estimates : The annual costs of operation for the flight center are divided between personnel, aircraft operating costs (fuel and oil), spare parts, insurance and depreciation. In developing the annual operating cost estimates, no consideration was given to food and dormitory service personnel, inasmuch as all these costs were covered under the academic center cost estimates. Also, the student modules will only be one-half of the number used in the other estimate, since only one-half of the students are assumed to be enrolled in the flight training portion of the program. Personnel Requirements : Three types of personnel are required for the operation of the flight center — flight instructors, maintenance technicians, and staff /administrative personnel. With respect to the flight instructors, they will perform dual flight instruction and also the simulator training. The number required is based on a limitation of four hours of flight instruction per day, per instructor; and since there are 235 working man-days per year^-> a flight instructor man-year would equal 940 hours. The number of flight instructors required, then, would be equal ^Arizona State University, Financial Report for the Year Ended June 30, 1966 , Tempe, Arizona. 13 Total expenditure in 1966 $27,570,564 -f 15,924 FTE students = $1,720. 1 4a Report to Board of Regents , op. cit. , Table 28. l->The actual number of man-hours available per man per year are 1,880, based on an eight-hour day, five-day week, with allowances for sick leave, vacation and holidays. 1880 -f 8 = 235 man-days. IV-41 ESTIMATED ANNUAL OPEEATING COST OF ACADEMIC CENTER ... Est. Personnel Student Module Costs Other Costs* Total 500 $ 520,400 $ 500,000 $ 1,020,400 1000 1,062,000 1,000,000 2,062,000 1500 1,603,400 1,500,000 3,103,400 2000 2,160,000 2,000,000 4,160,000 * Includes operations, travel, services, and capital. Figure IV- 22 IV-42 to the total number of flight hours of operation per year divided by 940. The total number of flight hours flown per year is equal to the number of hours flown per student multiplied by the number of students. Thus, the number of flight instructors required for each module becomes: 1. For the 500 student module 250 X 62.5 940 _ 15,625 940 17 Instructors 2. For the 1,000 student module 500 X 62.5 _ 31,250 940 940 34 Instructors 3. For the 1,500 student module = 50 Instructors 940 940 4. For the 2,000 student module 1000 X 62.5 = 62,500 940 940 67 Instructors Maintenance personnel requirements have been developed on the basis of one maintenance man-hour for every five flight hours with single- engine aircraft and one maintenance man-hour for each flight hour with twin- engine aircraft. In addition, one engine mechanic will be required for every twelve engines operating. On the basis of the foregoing, the following maintenance personnel requirements were developed: 1. 500 student module Single-engine flight time Twin- engine flight time Total 11,250 hrs/yr 4,375 hrs/yr 15,625 hrs/yr Personnel for S.E. A/C = 11250 — = 1-2 5 X 1880 Personnel for T.E. A/C = 4375 1880 = 2.3 Personnel req'd for engine O.H. = 2JL = 1.2 12 Total Personnel Req'd 4.7 or 5 IV-43 1,000 student module Single-engine flight time = 22,500 hrs/yr Twin-engine flight time = 8,750 hrs/yr Total = 31,250 hrs/yr Personnel for S.E. A/C = 22500 = 2.4 5 X 1880 Personnel for T.E. A/C = 8750 = 4.9 1880 Personnel req'd for engine O.H. = 26 = 2.1 12 T otal Personnel Req'd 9.4 or 9 3. 1,500 student module Single-engine flight time = 33,750 hrs/yr Twin-engine flight time = 13 , 125 hrs/yr Total = 46,875 hrs/yr Personnel for S.E. A/C = 33750 = 3.6 5 X 1880 Personnel for T.E. A/C = 13125 = 6.7 1880 Personnel req'd for engine O.H. = 36 = 3.0 12 Total Personnel Req'd 13.3 or 13 4. 2,000 student module Single-engine flight time = 45,000 hrs/yr Twin-engine flight time = 17,500 hrs/yr Total = 62,500 hrs/yr Personnel for S.E. A/C = 45000 = 4.8 5 X 1880 Personnel for T.E. A/C = 17500 = 9.3 1880 Personnel req'd for engine O.H. = 49 — 4.0 12 Total Personnel Req'd 18.1 or 18 IV-44 With regard to staff and administrative personnel requirements, a ratio of 1 to 1 flight instructor was used in developing the estimates, the same ratio used in the development of staff and administrative personnel requirements for the academic center. A summary of total personnel requirements for the flight center is set forth in Figure IV-23. Annual Personnel Cost Estimates : After developing the personnel requirements, as set forth in Figure IV-23, costs were developed for the four modules on the basis of average annual salaries of $12,000 for flight instructors, $6,000 for maintenance technicians, and $4,800 for staff and administrative personnel. The average cost estimates used here are somewhat higher in the first two personnel categories than used in the academic center because of a much lower utilization of part-time student personnel in the flight operations. On the basis of the foregoing, the annual personnel costs were developed and are set forth in Figure IV-24. Annual Operating Cost Estimates/Hour /Aircraft ; For developing direct operating cost figures for the flight operations, a cost per hour figure was established for both the single-engine and the twin-engine operations. The cost per hour figures were established as follows: Single Engine Twin Engine Fuel and oil costs/hour $ 2.50 $ 6.00 Depreciation .62 3.00 Spare parts .50 2.75 Insurance .65 1.00 Engine overhaul, less labor .75 1.50 Total Cost/Hour $ 5.02 $14.25 Using the cost per hour figures developed above, the annual operating costs for the four student modules were calculated and are presented in Figure IV-25, showing an annual operating cost of $118,819 for the smallest module and $475,276 for the largest student module. Figures obtained by correspondence from general aviation aircraft manufacturer . IV-45 ESTIMATED PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS FOR FLIGHT CENTER Flight Maint . Staff & Student Module Instr. Tech. Admin . Total 250 17 5 17 39 500 34 9 34 77 750 50 13 50 113 1000 67 18 67 152 Figure IV-23 IV-46 ESTIMATED PERSONNEL COSTS FOR FLIGHT CENTER Flight Maint . Staff & I Student Module Instr. Tech. Admin . Total 250 $ 204 , 000 $ 30,000 $ 81,600 $ 315,600 500 408,000 54,000 163,200 625,200 750 600,000 78,000 240,000 918,000 1000 804,000 108,000 321,600 1,233,600 Figure IV- 24 IV-47 ANNUAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS COST ESTIMATES S.E. S.E. M.E. M.E. Student Module Hrs. Costs Hrs. Costs Total Costs 250 11,250 $ 56,475 4,375 $ 62,344 $ 118,819 500 22,500 112,950 8,750 124,688 237,638 750 33,750 169,425 13,125 187,032 356,457 1000 45,000 225 , 900 17,500 249,376 475,276 Figure IV-25 IV-48 Annual Rental Cost Estimates : It is assumed that the facilities at the flight center will be built by the Indian tribe and leased to the organization conducting the flight training program. The estimated rental price for the operations building is based on a $4.00 per square foot per year rate, including all costs except communications. The estimated rental price for the hangar space is based on a $1.50 per square foot per year rate, In addition to the facilities rental costs, further costs will be incurred for the utilization of airfield property other than the facilities. For estimating purposes, the figures of $1,750, $3,500, $5,250, and $7,000 per year have been used in developing the overall leasing cost estimates. This would be roughly the equivalent of 50, 100, 150, or 200 acres of land. On the basis of the foregoing, the estimates for annual leasing costs were developed and are presented in Figure IV-26. The leasing costs range from an annual cost of $24,510 for the smallest module to $90,360 for the largest student module. Estimated Annual Operating Cost of Flight Center : After developing the cost estimates for personnel, aircraft operations and leasing costs, the total annual costs for operation of the flight center were developed, as shown in Figure IV-27. The costs range from $458,929 per year for the 250 flight student module to a high of $1,799,236 for the 1,000 student module. An analysis of the cost figures presented in Figure IV-27 reveals that the average cost per flight hour ranges from $28.80 to $29.20 for the various modules. This appears to be somewhat high when viewed in light of the fact that 170 of the 250 hours of flight training will be conducted in single-engine and 80 hours in twin-engine aircraft. The cost estimates are based, however, on 100 hours of dual instruction in the single-engine aircraft, 70 hours of solo in single-engine aircraft, and 80 hours of advanced instrument flight in the twin-engine aircraft. When the fixed -base operator rates are applied to this flight program, the cost is not unreasonable. In addition, a considerable amount of synthetic trainer time is also included in this estimate. On the basis of the planned flight program supplemented with synthetic trainer time, it is believed that a very high quality commercial/ instrument pilot will result. If some of the trainer time can be substituted for the flight time and if the aircraft utilization rates are increased, the cost per flight hour would be significantly reduced. IV-49 ANNUAL LEASING COST ESTIMATES Student Module Opn Bldg Space Opn Bldg Costs Hangar Space Hangar Costs Land Lease Costs Total Costs 250 3,290 $ 13,160 6,400 $ 9,600 $ 1,750 $ 24,510 500 6,580 26,320 11,200 16,800 3,500 46,620 750 9,750 39,000 14,400 21,600 5,250 65,850 1000 13,040 52,160 20,800 — ^—^— — — — 31,200 7,000 90,360 Figure IV- 26 IV-50 ESTIMATED ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS OF FLIGHT CENTER Cost Categories Student Modules 250 500 750 1000 Personnel A/C Operations Leas ing $ 315,600 118,819 24,510 $ 625,200 237,638 46,620 $ 918,000 356,457 65,850 $ 1,233,600 475,276 90,360 Totals $ 458,929 $ 909,458 $1,340,307 $ 1,799,236 Figure IV- 27 IV-! F inane ing As developed in this report, the annual cost for training one student in the proposed training center will be approximately $2,000. Added to this is an additional $1,800 for each student enrolled in the flight training option of the program and from $1,000 to $1,200 per year for food and housing costs. The training costs cited are somewhat higher than normally experienced — this being due primarily to the planned utilization of new educational technologies in the proposed center, with a resultant increase in quality education. If these can be used successfully, it may be possible for the student to obtain his entire education at a total cost less than he is currently paying, even though the annual costs are expected to be higher. This is because he will have the opportunity to complete a four-year course in three years, or less, if he has the capability. This will be possible due to the self -pacing concept planned as a part of the teaching/ learning system. In spite of the higher costs cited above, these can be expected to increase even further, because the center will be subject to the same inflationary- pressures that affect the rest of the economy. The higher education budget in 1970, for example, is expected to be more than triple the $3.6 billion spent in 1957-58. By 1975, it will have multiplied more than five times. The financial experts hold that the nation can afford these increased costs, particularly if we can improve education quantitatively and qualitatively. The estimated budget for 1975, they point out, amounts to only 1.9% of the projected gross national product for that year. The real question is how the added costs will be shared between students and parents; federal, state, and local governments; and private philanthropy. Sources and Distribution of Education Funds : The major sources of funds for operating institutions of higher learning have been obtained from four major sources, generally as follows: ' Tuition 25% Government 487o Endowments 167o Other, etc. 117o I'Keezer, Dexter M. , Editor, Financing Higher Education, 1960-70 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1959). IV-52 The expenditure or distribution of the education dollars in institutions of higher education has been essentially as indicated below: 18 Student Education 66.71 Research 22.21 Public Service, etc. 11.11 It is argued that, because the student benefits monetarily from his college education, he ought to pay a larger share of the cost. Harvard economist, Seymour E. Harris, for example, suggested that the following shifts in the financial burden might occur: *& 1957-58 1969-70 Tuition 251 401 Government 481 381 Endowment Income & Gifts 161 121 Other (scholarship funds from various sources, etc.) Ill 111 Others also argue that colleges should raise tuition fees, even to charging all students the full cost of their education, and what the student or his parents cannot pay from current earnings and past savings they should borrow. On the other hand, there are many who hold that our society benefits from the higher education of talented youth and that society ought to continue to pay its share of the cost and, perhaps, even increase its proportionate contribution. Because of the unique national implications of the proposed aviation training center, it is felt that industry and the federal government should assume a higher percentage of the total cost. Following is a further discussion of the various sources of income considered for financing the costs of the proposed aviation training center: ■*- "The Economics of Higher Education , op. cit. ^Harris, Seymour, Higher Education: Resources and Finance (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1962), p. 28. IV-53 1. Student Tuition : The easiest course for obtaining the necessary operating revenue is to charge or raise the student tuition. During the past fifteen years, the tuition charged at first-rate, private institutions has tripled -- an average rate of increase of about 7-8% per year. There is little evidence that these increases have been excessive; however, they have certainly increased the urgency of fully developed student financial aid programs. They have also increased the attractiveness of public institutions but have not destroyed the strong appeal of good private colleges. The tuition increases have also resulted in increases - long overdue - in the salary scale of the academic profession. The question which is now raised is whether tuition can continue to rise at recent rates without handicapping both students and parents. Because of the anticipated increase in the cost of training in the proposed training center over that presently experienced at Arizona State University, it is planned to find both public and private sources of funds which can be used to underwrite a portion of the costs of training for the students to supplement possible increases in tuition costs. 2. Taxes : The increased flow of tax money into higher education has been one of the great social achievements since World War II. Federal funds, the largest single new force in higher education, will probably continue to grow. Increases in both federal and state tax money will be sought to defray some of the costs of construction and operation of the proposed training center. Federal funds will be solicited in the areas of facilities and equipment, curriculum development, teacher training, establishment of a library/ information center, etc. State funds will be used to defray some of the wage and salary costs of the staff and faculty. 3. Gifts : Gifts to educational institutions are good and there should be more of them. It should also be pointed out that most of the cost of such generosity is borne by the government through the tax deductions it permits. Gifts to educational institutions have multiplied 3% times during the last fifteen years; however, key leaders of the nation feel that they should be 5 times what they are. Because of the national implications of the proposed aviation training center and the individual benefits that may be derived from such a center, there is a special obligation and opportunity open to those individuals and organizations who have profited from aviation in this nation. Plans for the establishment of the center will include provisions for such gifts. 4. Endowment Funds : In the establishment of the proposed training center, efforts will include the solicitation of funds for the establishment of an endowment fund. The fund should be invested in a manner to provide the maximum return commensurate with the investment risk. IV-54 Further Need for Responsibility Sharing : In addition to the problem of sharing the financial burden of the proposed training center, there is also the burden of responsibility for upgrading and controlling the quality of aviation training. Contacts with industry representatives, during the Feasibility Study, indicated that the industry was keenly interested in and hopeful for significant advancements in the development of educational materials, along with teaching methods and techniques in aviation training programs. The emphasis was always less on the quantitative and more on the qualitative results desired, i.e., more effort should be devoted to advancing the "state-of-the-art" in education and to upgrading the professionalism of skilled aviation personnel. Another strong impression gained during the study was that there is a general lack of communication or dialogue between the aviation industry and the academic community. It is believed that this lack of communication is, to a great extent, responsible for the fact that aviation or aviation- oriented curricula have not kept pace with the technological advancements in the field of aviation (the exception is engineering) . It is felt that this problem could be overcome with programs which would provide for more interaction between industry representatives and educators, resulting in greater understanding and involvement on the part, of all concerned. On the basis of the foregoing, it is believed that a central aviation training center in which the industry, the federal government, and the academic community each played a role on a cooperative basis could solve both the financial and the quality control problems related to the aviation training needs of the nation. Such a center would not only train a significant number of skilled aviation personnel to the desired qualitative levels but, more importantly, it could conduct the research in education necessary for the advancement of aviation curricula and the development of improved teaching methods and techniques. The results of such activity would be extremely beneficial to the industry, the government, and all educational institutions engaged in aviation training. A working relationship, as described above, could be developed if the aviation industry would establish a non-profit aviation education corporation or foundation to work with a university on a joint cooperative basis. Such a foundation could actually conduct the flight training portion of the total program under contract with the university and, also, perform some of the research in education, as appropriate. If the foundation were a membership organization, including aviation and related industries along with educational institutions engaged in aviation training, it would provide the basis for the industry and the academic community to communicate and interact on problems of mutual interest and concern in the area of aviation education. IV-55 The board of directors or board of governors of such a foundation could be comprised of leading aviation and education personnel. This would provide the industry and other academic institutions with a voice in the policy and quality control in matters related to aviation training and research in education. A joint cooperative working relationship, as described above, would achieve the following benefits: 1. Coordinated Efforts : The present practice is for individual elements of both the industry and the academic community to undertake unilateral actions related to problems concerned with aviation education. A working relationship, as described above, would eliminate much of the unilateral action, as presently experienced; the duplication of effort and resultant expenditure of unnecessary manpower and dollars; and would provide for a coordinated approach to the major problems faced by the nation in aviation education. 2. Policy and Quality Control : Under present practices, the aviation industry has little voice with respect to the policy and quality control in training programs for personnel who will ultimately be absorbed by that industry. The establishment of a foundation, as suggested, would provide a bridge or a voice for the industry to communicate with the educational institutions and enable it to become directly involved in problems r*iated to the industry. 3. Combining of Forces : A working relationship, as suggested, would provide a means for combining the forces of industry and the academic community. Industry and government personnel and educators from various academic institutions could be assigned to the organization for given periods of time to attack problems of mutual interest. This organization could also be used as a vehicle for personnel exchange programs in which educators could be delegated to serve time in the industry and industry representatives delegated to teach in the training center. Such programs would keep the academic community abreast of the "real" world in aviation and would also familiarize the industry representatives with the problems of education. Such "teacher training" programs would be beneficial to all concerned. 4. Cooperative Research : Under present practices, resources in terms of personnel and money are being expended on fragmented efforts which are of such scope as to require the combined efforts of several organizations, An example is the development of acceptable pilot selection and screening techniques. Another area is in the development of educational materials suitable for use with the new emerging educational technologies. The establishment of a foundation, as suggested, would provide a basis for cooperative and coordinated research efforts, such as those described above. IV-56 5. Aviation Information Center : Under present practices, many organizations have independent libraries containing aviation information. Although these libraries will continue to be a necessary part of an individual organization's operation, they are too costly and too slow to meet many of the day-to-day urgent information requirements in both the fields of education and industry. There is a need for a central, automated information center for aviation which can serve mot only the educational system but the total industry as well. Such an automated information center could be designed to be accessed with remote terminals. The medical profession is presently establishing such an information center for use by that profession. The remote accessed aviation information center could be one of the services offered to the membership of the foundation as a part of the membership fee. 6. Data/Forecasting Center : One of the difficult problems encountered in the conduct of the Feasibility Study was the acquisition of data. Because there is no central source of information, it was necessary to visit with many people and organizations to acquire the data needed in support of the study. Also, the forecasting of future needs and requirements in the aviation industry has been extremely poor in the past. This is also believed to be due, in part, to thelack of a central data center. With an aviation information center, as described above, along with the new forecasting techniques developed recently, the information center could also become a forecasting center for many of the overall needs and requirements of the aviation industry and also the educational institutions involved in aviation training. 7. Status Quo Vs. Professionalism : Under present practices involving unilateral and independent activities on the part of the various institutions engaged in aviation training, considerable time will be required before real advancements in educational materials and new innovative methods and techniques are actually developed within the various academic institutions. A center, such as suggested, would eliminate the status quo which has existed for too long and permit the early development of new aviation educational materials and teaching systems that will produce the degree of professionalism desired and meet the technological needs of the future. 8. Interaction : There is, today, very little interaction between the industry and the various educational institutions engaged in aviation training. A center, such as described, could serve as a catalyst, providing the means for bringing all interested parties together in a continuing working relationship and for the dissemination of the results of its research efforts through the industry and the academic institutions engaged in aviation training on a timely and continuing basis. XV-57 9. Cost Sharing : A joint working arrangement, as described above, would also provide a basis for the cost sharing of a program which has national implications of concern to the aviation industry and the government, as well as the academic community. 10. Tax Advantage ; A foundation established as suggested above would provide for tax write-offs for membership and other contributions. Such contributions would provide a portion of the funds needed to relieve the financial burden related to the operation of the training center. The government would then also be sharing in the costs of operation through the tax deductions it permitted. 11. "Civil" Training Center : The establishment of a foundation, as described above, would result in a true "civil" aviation center, as opposed to a government established center as provided for in Senate Bill S-1602 introduced by Senator Metcalf of Montana in April 1967 and House Bill H.R. 13442 introduced by Congressman Wolff of New York in March 1966. The cooperative working arrangement, as discussed above, would provide the same benefits enumerated in the above mentioned bills and would also be in keeping with the recommendations of the Aviation Human Resources Study Board which conducted a study on the manpower requirements of the civil aviation industry in 1964. In one of the recommendations, it was stated ... "The requirement in the United States is not for a federally supported civil air academy or for a military civil aviation training mission ... In the Board's view, the air carriers could most easily assure their pilot and mechanic requirements are met by developing cooperative programs with one or more of the existing, qualified public or private schools offering aviation training. Such cooperation can assure the maintenance of advanced technology and use of modern equipment in the educational establishments. "20 Financing Plan : An examination of the costs estimated for the establishment and operation of the proposed aviation training center leads to the obvious conclusion that Arizona State University cannot, by itself, finance the program. Because of the national character of the proposed center, it would cause an unfair financial burden to be placed on the local or state taxpayer to provide the necessary finances for the proposed center. On the basis of the foregoing discussion, it is suggested that the cost of financing the proposed center be shared in accordance with the following general plan: federal Aviation Agency, Project Long Look , Report of the Aviation Human Resources Study Board on Manpower Requirements of the Civil Aviation Industry (Washington, D.C.: September 1964), p. 22. IV-58 Role of Arizona State University : The role of Arizona State University in sharing the burden of financing the proposed center should be to continue its responsibilities for bringing the academic program to the students, i.e., operation of the academic facilities of the proposed center. It is presently offering an Aeronautical Technology program to over 300 students and would expand its faculty and staff to handle the 1,000/2,000 student modules in the proposed facilities on the Gila River Indian Reservation. The faculty, staff, and other operating costs would be under- written with tuition collected from the students, from local and state taxes, and from gifts. The tuition rates will be as established by the Board of Regents. The University should also conduct and participate in aviation education research leading to the development and use of improved curricula, equipment, methods and techniques. Funds for such research will be solicited on a project-by-project basis from government, foundation, and private sources. The University should be responsible for the operation of the student residence facilities, whether directly or by contract. The costs for the operation of these facilities are assumed to be self-liquidating, by charging the student residents the actual cost of operation. The following statement, made by Dr. G. Homer Durham, President, Arizona State University, in 1963 and again in 1965, illustrates Arizona State University's interest in participating in the development of human resources in aviation: 21 "The American economy is undergoing a quiet revolution. Higher education is the foundation of the change. Arizona's ability and genius in financing higher education will largely determine the future of the state. At one time, mineral exploration and develop- ment were primary. Next followed the ranches, agriculture, the cultivation of good soils and husbanding of water resources. Then came the need for better public schools and highways. Now , the crucial investment in our changing national economic and industrial life lies in cultivating the extra- ordinary human resources and skills that can anticipate and shape the scientific, social, and humane aspects of the aerospace age. Some states are well ahead of us in the venture. But Arizona is far from the rear, is moving rapidly, and can move further towards the forefront." ^I a Report to the Board of Regents , op. cit. , p. 17. IV-59 Role of the Aviation Industry : The role of the aviation industry in the establishment and operation of the proposed aviation training center should be to establish a private, non-profit organization which would represent all segments of the aviation industry, the federal government, and educational institutions on matters related to aviation education. A membership-type corporation or foundation is suggested as a possible means for maximum involvement and representation for the various segments of our society concerned with the problems of aviation education. Membership funds would be used to operate the organization and to underwrite a share of the cost of operating the proposed training center. As a non- profit organization, its members would be permitted to deduct membership fees and other gifts and contributions from income taxes. The corporation or foundation established by the industry should assume the responsibility for the construction of facilities, procurement of the equipment, and for the operation of the flight program at the proposed aviation training center. The development of the facilities could be done in cooperation with the Indians, who could obtain the financing for site and facilities development and then provide the facilities to the organization on a long-term lease basis. The costs for conducting the operation would be partly defrayed by charging the students some acceptable fee and partly with membership fees, gifts and contributions. The foundation should also conduct research in aviation training, as appropriate, and participate with the university and other agencies in aviation education research activities of mutual interest. These activities would be financed with funds provided for specific research proposals from government, industry, other foundations, and from private philanthropic sources. The activities of the non-profit organization, as described above, would result in a national civil aviation center directed by representatives of all segments of our society who are concerned with aviation education. It would provide industry with a direct voice in establishing policy and controlling quality in the training of skilled aviation personnel. It would also serve as a direct link between the industry and the academic community, with the industry's needs and requirements flowing into the center, and information, knowledge, and skills flowing back to the industry from the center and other educational institutions associated therewith. The University, the local community, and the state's representatives would provide every assistance in the establishment of the organization. IV-60 Role of the Government ; Because of the national implications of the skilled aviation manpower requirements problem and also because of the economic development potential for the Gila River Indian Reservation, the federal government should play an active role in the establishment and operation of the proposed center. The government should assist in the site and facilities development program by providing maximum possible grants, contracts, and long-term, low interest loans to the Indians, the University, and the non- profit corporation to be established by the aviation industry. Funds for this purpose are available within the U. S. Department of Commerce under Titles I and II of the Economic Development Act of 1965. Other governmental agencies, in addition to the U. S. Department of Commerce, have direct interests in the proposed program and its related activities. For example, the U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, has a vital interest in the pre-vocational, vocational, and social training of the Indians to prepare them for jobs created by the proposed center and other developments taking place on the Reservation; the U. S. Department of Labor has a direct interest in the training of skilled personnel for the nation's manpower pool and training for the disadvantaged; the U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, U. S. Office of Education, has a wide spectrum of interests and responsibilities in construction of educational facilities, the improvement of programs, instruction and administration in school systems, in teacher training and student assistance, and for research in education -- all of which are involved in the proposed program; and the U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration and Civil Aeronautics Board, who have direct interests and responsibilities in fostering, encouraging, and assisting the development of civil aviation in this nation. Because of the direct interests and responsibilities of the agencies cited in matters closely related to the proposed training center and the potential benefits to the nation resulting from the existence of such a center, consideration should be given to a pooling of resources of these agencies with the U. S. Department of Commerce for the support of a coordinated program which would bring the proposed center into existence. Such a program would also serve the interests and responsibilities of the agencies cited. Every effort will be made to bring these agencies together in a cooperative venture basis. If this cannot be achieved, each agency will be solicited individually with separate proposals for assistance in the establishment and operation of the proposed center. IV-61 Conclusions After the development of potential enrollment in the proposed training center, facilities sizing and cost factors and an analysis of financing possibilities, it is concluded that: 1. The enrollment in the center will be approximately 1,000 students, initially, increasing to approximately 2,000 by 1972. 2. The development of the academic facilities of the training center should be based upon a minimum of 120 square feet of space for each student, with 275 square feet allocated per student for housing space. 3. Because of innovative and unique design approaches to accommodate new educational technologies, the construction costs for the academic facilities will be on the order of $23.50 per square foot. The student residence facilities will cost on the order of $16-$ 18 per square foot. 4. The total cost of the educational facilities, including general equipment, will be approximately $2,700,000 for the 1,000 student module and $5,400,000 for the 2,000 student module. 5. The total cost for student residence facilities, for 757o of the enrolled student population, will be approximately $3,281,250 for the 1,000 student module and $6,562,500 for the 2,000 student module. 6. The costs for the flight center facilities, including an operations building and hangar facilities, will be approximately $227,150 for the 1,000 student enrollment and $436,200 for the 2,000 student module. 7. The cost for flight training equipment, including aircraft, ground support equipment, and synthetic trainers will be approximately $677,000 for the 1,000 student body and $1,282,500 for the 2,000 student body. IV- 6 2 8. The annual operating costs for the academic center will be approximately $2,062,000 for the 1,000 student module and $4,160,000 for the 2,000 student module. 9. The annual operating costs for the flight center will be approximately $909,458 for the 1,000 student module and $1,799,236 for the 2,000 student module. 10. Because of the national implications and direct benefits to the aviation industry, the proposed aviation training center should be established and operated as a cooperative effort between the University, the aviation industry, and the federal government. 11. A single organization to represent all of the aviation industry's needs will be required for the cooperative effort cited in "10 ,J above. A non-profit, membership corporation should be considered for the purpose. 12. The functions of the aviation training center could be most effectively performed by the University assuming the responsibility for conducting the academic portions of the training program and the industry-established organization conducting the flight training portions of the total program, research and development being performed separately and jointly as appropriate. 13. The establishment of a working relationship, as indicated above, would provide for a more equitable sharing of costs for the operation of the training center and would result in the maximum dissemination of research findings to institutions engaged in aviation training. 14. Arizona State University should continue its responsibility for the development of the academic portion of the training center and the acquisition of the equipment required for its operation. The non-profit corporation established by the industry should assume the responsibility for the development of the flight training center and the acquisition of the equipment required. Various agencies of the federal government should assist in the development of the facilities and the acquisition of the equipment. 15. The distribution of the operating costs for the proposed center should be approximately 40% tuition, 38% state and federal governments, and 23% industry and other sources. IV- 6 3 Recommendations On the basis of the institutional cost and financing investigation discussed in detail in this Section of the report, it is recommended that: 1. An early conference be scheduled for representatives of the civil aviation industry, the federal government, and Arizona State University. The purpose of the conference will be to develop a plan for a joint cooperative effort to establish an aviation training center of national significance, as discussed throughout this report. 2. The civil air industry establish a non-profit education organization which will represent all segments of aviation and which will work directly with the government and University in the establishment and operation of the aviation training center. 3. The division of responsibility for the establishment and operation of the aviation training center be for the industry-sponsored, non-profit education organization to establish and operate the flight training program, and the University establish and operate the academic program. The federal government should provide both organizations with financing and operations assistance. 4. Efforts be made to organize representation from all governmental agencies who have interests in the total Reservation program, so that all resources can be brought to bear on the developmental efforts in a single master program. IV-64 SECTION V IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Introduction This section of the Feasibility Study report presents the results of an analysis of the actions necessary to bring the aviation training center and program into existence within a reasonable period of time. A schedule for these actions is also presented. Both short- and long-range plans were examined and are described. The short- range plans involve actions necessary for the site and facilities development on the Indian Reservation and the transfer of the existing Aeronautical Technology program from the Arizona State University campus (Tempe) to the proposed academic site on the Reservation. The short-range plans also involve cooperative actions necessary for the establishment of an industry- sponsored, non-profit organization, along with those actions which are necessary for initiation of flight training operations on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. The long-range plans involve the continuous development of new educational technology, both software and hardware, and its introduction into the aviation training center operations. Recently developed technology which is now available, such as educational television, programmed instruction texts, student responders, etc., will be used to the maximum extent possible in the initial or short-range phase of the development. The design of the facilities, as discussed in other sections of this report, will include provisions for acceptance of, and compatibility with, some of the new technologies being developed, such as computer-assisted learning systems. Such systems are expected to become available in a significant manner in the long-range phase. Assumptions In developing the details for this section of the Feasibility Study, the following assumptions were made: 1. That the study results would be accepted by the aviation industry and the appropriate governmental agencies as a V-l valid assessment of the requirements for skilled aviation personnel and the proposed approach to the problem. 2. That the aviation industry will establish a non-profit organization to interface with Arizona State University and the government on a cooperative basis. 3. That Arizona State University will assume the responsibility for the development of the academic facilities at the proposed center and would present all academic instruction. 4. That the non-profit organization will assume the responsibility for the development of the flight training facilities at the proposed center and would conduct all flight training. 5. That suitable agreements can be negotiated with the Gila River Indian Reservation Tribal Council regarding leases for land and the development and leasing of facilities. 6. That an agreement can be reached with the U. S. Air Force regarding the use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield as the site for the flight training portion of the proposed center. 7. That adequate financing can be arranged for the development and operation of the proposed aviation training center. Short-Range Plans The short-range phase of the program includes the general period 1967-1972. During this phase, all of the activities for the establishment and operation of the training center will be undertaken. It is planned that actual flight training will be initiated on the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield by September 1968, and that the existing Aeronautical Technology program being conducted on the Arizona State University campus will be modified and transferred to the new facilities on the Reservation by September 1969. It is also planned to provide a capability for accommodating 2,000 aviation students by 1972. Some of the key efforts required to achieve these goals are discussed below. Negotiation with Tribal Council : Many meetings and conferences have been held with the Gila River Indian Reservation Tribal Council and representatives thereof, along with local and national representatives of the Bureau of Indian Affairs, regarding the proposed program and its implications for the people of the Reservation. V-2 Although enthusiastic support has been provided in every instance, it will now be necessary to negotiate formal agreements with respect to land, site development, facilities development, and leasing. Actions will be initiated in July 1967 to schedule meetings and conferences with appropriate representatives of the governing body and the people of the Reservation for the purpose of negotiating formal agreements on the following subjects: Land : Two sites are involved on the Reservation — the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield, which is planned for use as the flight training site, and a location, yet to be determined, in the proposed residential development area, which is planned for use as the academic training site. Negotiations will be undertaken to obtain the use of the required acreage at both locations, with formal agreements anticipated by 1 January 1968. The Airfield site is presently under lease to the United States Government for use as a temporary base for flight out of Williams Air Force Base, east of Chandler, Arizona. It is planned to schedule a series of conferences at the earliest possible date, involving representatives of the Tribal Council, City of Chandler, U. S. Department of the Interior (Bureau of Indian Affairs), U. S. Department of Commerce, Williams Air Force Base, U. S. Air Force, Arizona Congressional delegation, and Arizona State University. The conferences will be held for the purpose of negotiating agreements which will permit the use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield as a civil flight training center and, at the same time, not in any way hinder the military training operations at Williams Air Force Base. Site Development : It is anticipated that the Tribal Council, or its representatives, will undertake the site development programs at both proposed locations. If, during the negotiations, it is developed that a joint venture might be more appropriate or desirable, suitable agreements will be drawn up for this purpose. During these negotiations, the exact amount and location of the necessary acreage will be defined and preliminary plans for development drawn up. Facilities Development : During the conferences, the tentative details for facilities development will be discussed in depth with respect to the kinds of facilities, locations, utility requirements, future growth and operations. The role the people on the Reservation expect to play in connection with the establishment and operation of the proposed center will be defined. V-3 Establishment of a Non-Prof it Organization ; As discussed in other sections of this report, it is proposed that the aviation industry- establish a non-profit corporation or foundation to interface with the University for the establishment of a civil aviation training center. Actions will be undertaken at the earliest possible time to meet with key industry leaders to encourage and assist them in the establishment of an organization which represents all segments of our society concerned with and interested in developing improvements in aviation education. The tentative plan is to have the organization established by 1 January 1968, so that the organization can enter into agreements with the Tribal Council for site and facilities development. In addition, it will acquire equipment and personnel for initiation of flight training operations by 1 September 1968. Preliminary discussions with a number of leading representatives of the aviation industry have indicated a keen interest on their part for the establishment of the type organization suggested herein. Preliminary Design Study : As stated in Section III of this report, an extensive area development program has been undertaken in the northeast corner of the Reservation due west of the City of Chandler. The Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield lies within this development area. The program includes the development of industrial, residential, and recreational sites on Reservation land. These areas are shown in Figure III-3 of Section III. In addition to the aviation training center proposed herein, a number of industrial corporations are already being established in the Kyrene Industrial Development Area and the residential and recreational developments will be initiated in the near future. These developments, in which the Reservation manpower will play a vital role, will benefit the population both materially and spiritually. Each of these developments is presently being considered essentially as individual efforts — none of which integrate the requirements of the proposed aviation training center sites. There is, therefore, a requirement for a preliminary planning study which will provide the basis for integration of the training center facilities requirements with other developments under- way and, also, the preparation of criteria or specifications needed for the actual development or construction phase of the proposed program. The objective of the preliminary study will be to plan an aviation training institution which is compatible with other development programs which are or will be undertaken in that area and which will meet the short- V-4 and long-range educational requirements of the institution. The study will provide the basis for orderly expansion to meet ultimate, anticipated growth with an acceptable growth pattern. The preliminary design study will combine the many seemingly unrelated elements into a unified whole. The keyword during the preliminary planning study will be "flexibility", The facilities of the institution will be designed to allow for acceptance of and compatibility with the new educational technologies and also permit maximum interchange of functions throughout the years, even though the structure in itself is immobile. The preliminary plans will be developed in fairly specific detail for the next ten to fifteen-year period; however, beyond that time the plans will be sketched out in a broad, rather than specific sense. The preliminary design study is expected to be initiated in July 1967 and continue for a period of six months. The schedule for the study and its relationship to other follow-on activities is shown in Figure V-l. Following is a discussion of the work that will be performed during the preliminary design study: 1. Development of Educational Objectives : Prior to the development of preliminary design details, a statement of the educational objectives of the institution will be developed. These objectives will include detailed information on the following items: a. Overall objectives of the institution b. Student group sizes and backgrounds c. When and how students will operate as groups and as individuals d. Types of curricula taught and whether and when new educational technologies, such as computer- aided learning, programmed instruction, television, etc., will be utilized and to what degree e. If computer-aided learning is utilized, the number of terminals required and their locations f. The number and location of student study carrels; also, how many would be wet and dry V-5 w S3 Q w EC a CO izs o H H CM ;_"•'. * ,* * ' • r>«. '•'•1 " -* •• * * ON r-l d .." " '* ' ! ".V J ; • * * ■ * o •H " •*** -**• ■u . "■ " ".". * • * » CJ •"* " .*" * , *t "• 3 • • \ *."j- ". * . * * * !-i * •••-" . * -* 2 * rH 4J r^ CO * ; • ".. • "•*- * ' CT> e *.•••• *". • " " • I— 1 o U d d o •H 4J — * 7,T: :' to •r-l s-l ,• * " " * •" I ' * ^H CO cu * "" " M * ** - **( - W cu ex I* ■*• - « * \ - \ « p O ' *"*.-.. * 9 o 1 « \}f *l •""" '"• * r«. m * .• ^M o\ IB ■"■l •'.*... •« ■ * • •' i—i I I 1 :* '- .* " "'"'.* ••" .'~ '~\ . " • • H •;; .;~. • **•■ " 1- .'...: o\ '•" ''.'•'- VO ' ' ' ,*' cr> * • •• " • i-i ■ . ,-' # • • i «■ ^^^ 00 vO i— i 60 M u >> d •H c co 4J Training Cente Expansion 2,000 Students >>TJ d d d hO d d rj 3 •H O •i-i -H o cu 55 cfl 4-> cd co t-i cd to co CO -H TJ O eg d CO U 0) 4-) n CD CU 0) *J 3 1 33 •r-l E-< -H O H P O'H O -rH O 4J 5 nj r-« 6 -H e -H }-l 38 i-l -H .d rH 4-1 .d ^ -H CU r-l CU r-l 4-1 O CU CO t)0 -rH CO 60 txO Cfl rQ -H TJ -H CO O O Pi !-i CU •H o d •H O 4J (J O cd o d o Pn Pu P4 Q r-l Cd O r-l H cu o cd o cd o « hhO p4 f^ Q cu u 3 &0 •H V-6 g. The use of motion pictures, whether used by groups or individuals h. The extent of use of closed-circuit television, both live and canned i. The extent of use of educational television which is piped in from other sources and distributed through the institution j. A description of the computer or data processing center with special cooling and humidity control requirements k. Real time computer access requirements for student carrel operation, information retrieval, monitoring, etc. 1. Library or information center and its automated requirements m. Intercommunication system for the institution — whether voice only and/or television n. Extent of use and locations of student/teacher response systems, both in classrooms and remote o. Description, number and location of synthetic flight trainers p. Description of all training equipment used in the program and its location q. Esthetic requirements for the necessary psychological influences 2. Program Expansion Requirements ; Under this item, a detailed plan for orderly expansion of the institution will be developed. The needs to support an initial enrollment will be defined; also, the ultimate size of the institution in terms of enrollment will be established. Target dates will be determined to permit an orderly growth until maximum enrollment is reached. V-7 3. Facilities Requirements : The facilities required to meet the objectives of the institution, as described in preceding paragraphs, will be determined. Preliminary design details will be developed for the facilities, grouped under five major headings -- academic, administrative, recreational, residential, and ancillary. Following is a listing of the facilities anticipated at this time. This list of facilities will be tabulated and the specific requirements for the number of classrooms, laboratories, and other facilities will be determined; also, the size of the varying structures will be computed and listed. These requirements will be predicated on the planned growth of the institution. a. Academic Facilities Classrooms Laboratories Seminar Rooms Faculty Work Areas Audio-Visual Preparation Areas Computer Center Library/Information Center Bookstore Lecture Halls Reception Areas Counseling Rooms Student Work Centers (Carrels) b. Administrative Facilities Administrative Offices Staff Headquarters Registration Area Recreational Facilities Student Union Gymnasium Swimming Pool Auditorium Athletic Fields Tennis Courts Intramural Athletics d. Residential Facilities Dormitories Faculty Residences Cafeterias e. Ancillary Facilities Mechanical Equipment Center Physical Plant Fire Station Campus Security Campus Laundry Warehousing Post Office Infirmary Chapel V-8 4. Space Allocation : The first requirement under this item will be an analysis of space requirements. Once the facilities have been tabulated and listed, an area will be determined for the proper function of each of the individual structures. This particular project poses many problems not normally encountered for a typical campus. The nature of the technical background of the courses to be offered and the effects of and requirements for the utilization of new educational technologies will be studied carefully. The design of the dormitories will pose different problems than normally encountered. The space allocation for the individual rooms will be determined by the proposed study and learning habits as dictated by the new proposed educational technologies. The student quarters may also incorporate study areas and both functions will probably be in use simultaneously most of the time. The planning module will adjust to this new concept of teaching and learning. Space allocation will be based on an individual study of each building with the above basics in mind for all buildings. The special requirements for the technical needs of specific buildings will be over and above the following list: a. Function of building as a whole b. Breakdown of rooms within the building c. Traffic patterns for corridor layouts d. Feasibility of single level vs. multiple level layout e. Vertical circulation f. Location of electronic equipment g. Space allocation for auxiliary facilities other than basic function of structure h. Plumbing, mechanical, electrical, and telephone 5. Size of Training Center : Two sites, described in Section III of this report, have been tentatively selected as locations for the training center. The size of the center will be determined by the following factors: V-9 a. The number of students b. Proximity to existing outside communities c. Availability of public transportation d. Suburban area e. Availability of land f . Parking of automobiles and other vehicles g. Cost of land h. Type of curriculum offered i. Proximity to the airfield j. Low density plan The results of the initial survey indicate a center of several hundred acres would be desirable, with adjacent tracts available to provide for the future. Preliminary negotiations with tribal leaders indicate that a portion of the acreage for the center can be obtained for the purpose on a long-term (dollar per year) type agreement. 6. Site Selection : A thorough analysis will be made of the sites tentatively selected. Some of the factors that will be considered, leading to the ultimate selection of the sites are: a. Residential area development program b. An area that would allow for a flight pattern which would not create a nuisance to the surrounding communities and a minimum of interference with commercial and military flight patterns c. Land price d. Existing means of transportation and proximity to known planned future freeways e. Availability of utilities f. Close proximity to already established communities V-10 g. Cooperation of surrounding communities h. Economic and vehicular impact on surrounding areas i. Enough undeveloped land area surrounding the sites to accommodate the satellite businesses which will develop as a result of the aviation training center 7. Aerial Survey and Topography : A survey will be made of the entire development area, showing all of its natural contours and any vegetation that might be a hindrance or an asset to the finally selected locations for the training center facilities. The aerial survey will also indicate the natural flow of surface water. This will then be studied regarding the possibilities of disruption to the surrounding area and flooding on adjacent properties. Details will be developed on the following: a. Topography b. Boundaries c. Natural vegetation that should be retained d. Natural flow of surface water e. Redistribution plans for surface water so as not to affect surrounding area f. Scenic view g. Building locations as related to hills, valleys and views 8. Soils Analysis : A soils analysis study will be made to allow for proper planning of the buildings and roads as related to surface and sub-surface soil conditions. This information will provide the basis for costs of trenching, foundations, and grading problems. Specific soil borings will be performed for the sites. These tests will be located at selected key locations to determine the following general soil characteristics: V-ll a. Sub-surface water condition b. Bearing capacity c. Expansion characteristics when wet d. Stability of soil for trenching excavation e. Water absorption characteristics f. Alkalinity of soil as related to plant life Ultimately, during the construction phase, additional borings will be necessary at each building site to more specifically determine soil conditions at each exact location. This is necessary for the final design of each structure. 9. Training Center Activity Zoning : The academic, administrative, residential, student activity zones, etc. will be grouped in a logical manner, relating them to each other, to the center, and to the community as a whole. It is most critical that the training center zoning be established to benefit not only the project but the surrounding area. a. The zones will be located so that traffic from the main entrance can be channeled to any location without interruption of the use of other areas b. The zones will locate the functions most used by outside services closer to the main highway c. Zones most commonly interrelated will be adjacent to each other d. Quiet zones will be located on the perimeter of active zones e. The final result will be an organized pattern of selected activities working as a whole V-12 10. Traffic Control : A study will be made of the flow for automotive, pedestrian, and bicycle traffic. Each will be studied on its own and then in the proper combination to each other. The following patterns will be established: a. Traffic to the center from arterial and subsidiary streets b. Movement of students, faculty, visitors, and delivery vehicles c. Street patterns within the center d. Location of parking areas in relation to their activities e. Bicycle paths f. Major pedestrian walks g. Traffic between the academic and the air training facilities h. The proper vehicular and pedestrian traffic between zones 11. Building Locations : Building locations within the various zones will again be related to each other in their own zone, as well as to the functions in other zones. The areas will have been pre-determined in another phase of the study and now the actual approximate physical dimensions of the various structures will be determined and the buildings located on the sites, as follows: a. Academic Zone (1) Organize the classroom or lecture buildings in relation to each other. This will be established by studying the prepared curriculum and reducing travel time between classes (2) Locate the laboratory buildings with their related lecture facilities; again in association for minimum commuting time (3) Plan the various phases of expansion from the original nucleus to the ultimate projected pattern V-13 b. Administrative Zones (1) The buildings in this category will be located to accommodate the constant daily- flow of pedestrian and vehicular traffic from the academic, public and faculty areas (2) The various functions within the area may finally dictate a single structure but that will only be determined by additional study c. Student Activity Zone (1) The structures that are used during class hours will be located adjacent to the academic area (2) The structures used in conjunction with the public will be located adjacent to main arterial roads (3) The athletic facilities will be located to allow for ease of access for both the public and student body d. Residential Zone (1) The dormitories will be located in close proximity to the academic area, because they also serve as instructional centers, with study carrels built in (2) Quiet and restful open spaces will be adjacent to these structures to allow for relaxation from the rigors of today's university life e. Ancillary Facilities (1) These particular buildings, although listed in a separate category, will not necessarily be grouped together but will be interspersed throughout the campus and in their proper relationship to function V-14 12. Landscaping : This involves not only the location of plant material but also the strategic location of open spaces, quiet zones, placement of parking areas, etc. It must introduce a harmonious relationship between the interior and exterior spaces. Details on the following will be developed: a. Determination of types of plant material as a direct result of the soil analysis b. Open areas between structures c. Use of plant material for sound buffers d. The placement of intimate and subdued exterior study areas e. The location of secondary walkways, bicycle and equestrian paths f. Most importantly, establish a campus atmosphere of proper balance between student, architecture and landscaping 13. Off-Site Utilities : The off -site utilities will be studied as they relate to this project. Conferences will be held with the City of Chandler and Bureau of Indian Affairs regarding their proposed facilities. Through such cooperation, details will be developed regarding the following items : a. Determine the size of the existing or proposed power, sewer, water, and gas lines in relation to the project b. Advise the proper authorities to provide the utilities to the site at the best location for the campus c. Inform the authorities of the projected needs in each planned phase of construction, so that they may plan their own future requirements V-15 14. On-Site Utilities : A very important factor of the planning of this project is to locate the utility and electronic distribution systems properly for all phases of development. Its component parts are: a. Individual building requirements for utilities and special electronic and television systems (1) Analyze each building for its requirements for all utilities plus the additional special electronic and television requirements (2) Determine the necessary sizes of all service lines to the building (3) Connections to the distribution system b. Connections between buildings and off-site utilities (1) Determine the flow pattern of sewer lines (2) Locate the utility tunnels in the most economical manner (3) Size tunnels to allow for expansion needs and ease of access for maintenance, repair and replacement (4) Coordinate with off-site utility locations (5) Determine location and size of inter- communication lines for electronic systems 15. Presentation of Preliminary Studies ; The culmination of the efforts expended in the preliminary design study will be presented in written reports and in brochure form, containing plans and illustrations. The total study will be broken down as follows: a. Written reports of these items will include (1) The educational objectives (2) The entire program for construction and the planned phases of development V-16 (3) The actual area required for each structure (4) A copy of the aerial survey (5) A copy of the soil analysis (6) Engineers' reports on various phases of the project b. Illustrations and plans will augment the written reports, including but not limited to the following: (1) Area location map, showing surrounding communities and facilities (2) Preliminary master plan of the academic and air training centers (3) Plans showing the various phases of expansion (4) Vehicular and pedestrian traffic patterns (5) Location of all planned buildings and areas for future buildings, if needed (6) Off-site utility locations and sizes (7) Landscaping arrangements (8) On-site utility tunnels and electronic race- ways (9) Aerial view of the training center as a completed project (10) Athletic facilities (11) Exterior recreational facilities V-17 Flight Training Facilities Construction : As indicated in the Implementation Schedule (Figure V-l) , this part of the short-range plan is scheduled to begin approximately February or March of 1968 and be completed by September 1968. This schedule is, of course, based on the assumption that the industry-sponsored, non-profit organization will have been established and be in a position to undertake the project by that date, and that the necessary agreements have been negotiated with the Tribal Council and the U. S. Air Force regarding the use of the Goodyear Auxiliary Airfield. The results of the preliminary design study are expected to contain sufficient information and data to permit the development of development documents, working drawings, and specifications for the award of contracts and the construction of the facilities. Flight Training Program ; During the period 1 January 1968 (target date for the establishment of the non-profit organization) and September 1968, the organization will develop equipment and personnel requirements and initiate the actions to procure the equipment and establish a training staff. The target date for initiation of flight training is September 1968, as shown in Figure V-l. It is estimated that the initial student population will be less than 200, building up to an estimated 1,000 students by 1972. Equipment and facilities will be added, as required, to accommodate the increased enrollments. Detailed Design - Academic Facilities : Innovative architectural design techniques are expected to be utilized in the design of the academic facilities because of the introduction of new educational technologies. Plans are presently being developed to support a request for a special grant from a private foundation for a detailed design study for the academic facilities of the training center. It is expected that this grant will be awarded approximately 1 January 1968 and will continue for a period of an estimated ten months, as shown in the Implementation Schedule (Figure V-l). An architectural firm with a national reputation for innovative approaches to educational facilities design will be used in the detailed design study. V-18 Academic Facilities Construction : At the conclusion of the detailed design study, design documents, working drawings, and specifications will be developed and contracts awarded for the construction of the academic facilities in the residential area of the Reservation. It is assumed, of course, that the detailed design in the previous phase would be acceptable and that the necessary financing program for the facilities will have been arranged. The construction of the facilities will take place during the period October 1968 to September 1969. Equipment lists will also be developed during this period and equipment procured for installation in the new facilities. During the latter phases, the current Aeronautical Technology program will be transferred from the Arizona State University campus (Tempe) to the new site and utilization of the new facilities will begin in September 1969. During the period September 1969 through September 1972, the facilities will be expanded from a 1,000 student body center to a 2,000 student center. V-19 Long-Range Plans The long-range plans for the proposed training center will be to continue to develop and expand, as necessary, to accommodate the growth in student enrollment which will develop naturally with growth of the population and the aviation industry. More important, however, will be the continued improvement in instructional materials, equipment, and techniques through cooperative research and development programs conducted at the proposed training center. The training center is expected to perform two major functions -- aviation academic and flight training and research and development in areas related to aviation education. Education, flight, maintenance, and safety research and experimentation will be conducted, much of it within the context of the training program. The most important research and development visualized for the training center will be that related to the development of curriculum materials and teaching/ learning systems for aviation education and the subsequent teacher training and dissemination programs. An experimental program which will lay the foundation for training center's R&D activity in curriculum and educational technology development is currently underway in a joint cooperative program being conducted by the General Learning Corporation, Arizona State University, and local and regional schools. The program referred to is entitled "A Computer-Aided Learning Experiment in Vocational-Technical Education". Although the immediate objectives are concerned with an age group of a lower level (high school) than will be enrolled in the training center, the procedures and techniques will be directly applicable to the activities visualized for the training center. The follow-on or long-range objectives of the current program will include curriculum development of aviation education materials for all levels. The aviation training center's R&D program for curriculum and educational systems development is expected to grow out of this current program. It is described in some detail here because of its direct application to the future activities of the training center. A Computer-Aided Learning (CAL) Experiment ; The objectives of this program are to identify and assess the potential benefits of a multi- method/media approach to vocational-technical education involving computer- aided learning (CAL) ; to develop and operationally evaluate a pilot curriculum for disadvantaged youths, which can be further developed to have relevance for all secondary and collegiate students; to generate and document hypotheses, recommendations, and conclusions based on the results; to generate the necessary climate and conditions for successful further development of curricula which seek to induce learning along individually prescribed paths toward stated, observable, behavioral objectives which combine technical, academic, and personal/social goals and skills. V-20 Detailed information will be obtained about the target population and about a cluster of entry level jobs in electronics. Job data will be used to derive behavioral objectives for critical academic, technical, and personal/social skills. A multi-method/media approach involving CAL will be used in instructional design. This approach provides for using, for example, taped or live lecture, laboratory, CAL, peer group discussion, programmed text, fixed image displays, and motion pictures, as judged most effective in strategies for inducing the desired learning. Instructional strategies will be developed based on analyses of student data, subject matter content, conditions of learning, and behavioral objectives. Representative students will be used in development (sub- system) testing and course (system) testing. The results of this experimental project will contribute toward the body of knowledge pertaining to the practical application of the methods and techniques of educational technology, especially CAL, to the problems of vocational /technical education. The contributions include the development of a pilot course for inclusion in high school curricula, plus the organizational framework and community support required for further curriculum development efforts leading eventually to a complete new curriculum for secondary and collegiate level electronics technology. The initial program will be conducted in six phases. The phases, which overlap, involve major groupings of activities with a common general goal. The six phases are as follows: - Definition Phase - Strategy Phase - Development Phase - Instruction Phase - Evaluation Phase - Report Phase The time schedule for the six phases is shown in the upper block of the Program Schedule presented in Figure V-2. A discussion of each phase of the current program and the future follow-up programs is presented below: Definition Phase : The primary purpose of the Definition Phase is to establish instructional goals, define quantitatively and qualitatively the target population, define (behaviorally) terminal objectives, and develop a course specification for use in subsequent phases. Definition of target population will be developed, including available data about youths who meet such definitions by geographical areas. This information will be used to identify a population of male students in the local school system. This population of students meeting the definition is expected to total several hundred students. V-21 pri w X m u SI S3 C H H CD Q M .-J -6 H S3 n h w I < S i o Pd H W H PM O M W n a o en 3 M •H V-22 Data will be received front, a variety of sources about the jobs skills required for entry-level jobs and job hierarchies in electronics. This data will be of three general classes: academic, person-social, and "electronics" skills. These data will be analyzed to develop a group of candidate terminal cognitive and manipulative skills for the pilot course. Skills which are common to most jobs and job hierarchies will be identified and translated into terminal objectives. Terminal objectives will be specified in the Mager-fashion, e.g., they will be measurable, feasible, and understandable* A general objective's matrix (or matrix of learning modules) will be developed which reflects relationships between and among skills (e.g., reflecting skill hierarchies, skills of comparable levels). Each module will represent a logical "block of content", Estimates will be made of the amount of time the slow, medium, and fast students might require to master the material in such a block. Such time estimates will be necessary for the initial "sizing" of the course and for the development of the enabling behavioral objectives within the modules General functional specifications will be defined for use in investigating computer hardware- software systems available for use in the project. This investigation will identify and document information about available candidate systems, including how well each system meets the specifications, the conditions under which it is available, the costs involved, and other pertinent factors. specification". This specification will, in effect, outline the requirements of a pilot learning system, i.e., system inputs, outputs, resources and guidelines will be indicated. Strategy Phase : The Strategy Phase will be primarily concerned with the analysis, planning, and decision-making required to develop a learning system to meet the "course specifications". Behavioral objectives previously set forth for each learning module will be analyzed. The purpose of this analysis is to specify the required enabling objectives within each module and to arrange them in instructional sequences. Redundant enabling objectives (considering all modules) will be eliminated and overlapping enabling objectives will be re- written to eliminate the overlapping. This task will produce a greatly refined and possibly redesigned general matrix of learning modules and, within each module, the detailed sequences of enabling objectives. V-23 Criterion tests will be developed based on the criterion of acceptable performance specified in the statements of behavior objectives. An absolute grade, score, or level of performance on a criterion test will be established as minimum passing or minimum qualifying. Investigations will be made to determine the source and avail- ability of electronic learning materials which may be utilized in the project. This task will be primarily concerned with making or completing the arrangements for obtaining desired learning materials. Utilization of materials already developed which can be used in the program will reduce materials development costs. A computer hardware-software system will be selected from among those previously identified as available candidate systems. Media specified for use in the course will also be selected from among those available. Equipment selection will be based on: (1) the degree to which the functional requirements will be met, (2) technical features, and (3) relative cost. The Arizona State University will make available two temporary campus buildings for the duration of the program. It is planned to use one of the buildings for office space for the project staff and the other for housing the student terminals and a classroom. Other required classrooms and laboratories will be provided through the use of certain areas in other campus buildings. Specifications will be prepared for the remodeling of the buildings and preparation of laboratories to accommodate the student terminals and other equipment and activities. The results of the above efforts and the rationale for the decisions reached will be documented and reflected in a detailed plan for carrying out the activities in the Development Phase. The documentation will describe any present or anticipated problems. Development Phase : The Development Phase will be primarily concerned with the development and preparation of learning materials. A major effort will focus on developing creative and effective ways to program content for each medium, so that students may truly enjoy learning and, in fact, learn. Methods and media will be related in such a way as to personally involve students with the content, where the interaction of student and content does not appear contrived but a natural consequence of motivating activities. V-24 The essential subject matter will be delineated for each stated behavioral objective and will be cataloged in association with it for subsequent ease of reference. This subject matter will then, on a module-by-module basis, be programmed. Depending upon the strategy, some programmed steps will be linear and some will involve branching and possibly parallel paths, and some will utilize one media and some another as previously judged most effective in achieving the desired behavioral objectives. The tutorial and problem-solving/simulation modes of CAL may readily employ a mixture of linear, sensitive branching, and parallel paths, where large variability in step sizes may be imaginatively employed. A major objective will be to provide academic learning that is concurrent with laboratory experience, so that learning is goal-oriented; thus, laboratory exercises will be simulated in CAL sessions and materials will be prepared to accomplish this. Also, problem-solving exercises will be developed for CAL sessions which will be available concurrent with the academic learning of the related concepts. In the development of materials, emphasis will be placed on creating innovative problem-solving exercises in such areas as electronics troubleshooting, planning career strategies, and the effects of various on-the-job behaviors. The student will not only be presented with constructed problems but, where possible, will be led and encouraged to construct and solve his own problems. It is hoped that, eventually, techniques can be developed which will permit students to construct, for example, circuits; assign "known" values; solve for "unknown" values (using the computer); and have his solution checked and/or corrected by the computer. Full realization of this goal may not be achievable within the limited scope of this first course, but it is one of the major objectives of the overall vocational education curriculum development program (of which this project is the first key step) . Development testing will be conducted to validate the programming for the modules using representative students. It will consist of one or more cycles of: (1) presenting the programmed module to students, (2) administering the criterion test and analyzing the results, and (3) making necessary changes in the programming. The programming of the materials will be evaluated on the basis of performance on criterion tests and other bases, which will include: (1) number of steps completed versus amount of time, (2) error rates and possible undesirable error patterns, and (3) error frequency per step. V-25 ,-<■■-' ■ ■''■ ■;. Development testing will be carried out with a relatively small number of subjects. It is planned to use about ten students. These students will test the programmed modules in the order in which the modules might be presented to students in the Instruction Phase. Since the subject matter content of one module may be predicated on that in a previous one, it may be necessary to retain the same test students for all modules. "Effectiveness" of the experimental course will be evaluated in terms of student achievement, motivation engendered, time- to- learn, acceptability to students and teachers, preparation time and cost, presentation time and cost, and technical design factors. Instruction Phase : The most important part of this phase is the presentation of the course. The course will be presented twice, once each to two groups of twenty students. During the instructional presentations, student performance and controls will be carefully monitored. An objective will be to identify and obtain data about any unanticipated problems encountered. At the same time, the data required for evaluation purposes, as specified in the Evaluation Plan, will be obtained on a continuous basis and reviewed for proper quantity and quality. Evaluation Phase : The Evaluation Phase will parallel the Instruction Phase from the beginning and extend beyond it. The Evaluation Phase will be conducted in accordance with an Evaluation Plan prepared earlier in the project. At the conclusion of the courses, the students and the instructors will be interviewed to obtain their views (likes, dislikes, preferences, etc.), and these will be documented. The results of the final examinations, the interview information, and data regarding motivation will be included in the analyses being conducted. The objective of these analyses may be listed as follows: 1, To assess the significance of student population, course material, strategies employed, mode coverage and sequence, media applications, resources (e.g., computer system, staff, support services, monies available), and constraints (e.g., program preparation time, limitations of equipment and software, population sample size). 2. To identify, describe, and evaluate the major benefits and their implications for future efforts. V-26 3. To identify, describe, and evaluate the major problems encountered and their implications for future efforts. 4. To generate hypotheses, recommendations, and conclusions. The physical product of the Evaluation Phase will be a technical compendium representing the materials and documentation produced in this Phase and those that preceded it. This compendium will be properly cataloged and filed. This detailed, technical history of how the project was developed and implemented, including the key decisions that were made and their outcomes, should serve as very valuable reference material for use in guiding subsequent related efforts at the Arizona State University and particularly those curriculum development efforts planned for the aviation training center. Results Expected and Use of Findings : The Arizona State University and the General Learning Corporation are confident that the objectives of the experimental program will be successfully achieved. In addition to meeting the proposal's stated objectives, at least two additional major results are expected, as follows: 1. It is fully expected that an operationally tested vocational-technical learning system will be produced that is unique in its creation, methods/media and content. Nearly all, if not all, of the individual components of this system can be found in past or present programs. However, the systematic design, development, and integration of these components in application to vocational education has not been done before. Of major importance, for example, is the fact that the terminal objectives will have been verified in the field. Also, there will be three stages of testing to insure adequate information about the success of the learning system. There will be a subsystem test series in the Development Phase and two complete systems tests in the Instruction and Evaluation Phases. This information will be of great value in making system and course improvements and for developing future courses for the aviation training center. 2. There is a great need in the education community for a documented history of the development of a learning system based on educational technology. The project will produce and maintain such documentation as will enable such a history to be written. The findings of the experiment-demonstration will be evaluated, as described earlier in this program. A final report will be published and distributed widely. It is also planned to explore fully the possibilities V-27 of dissemination through seminars or symposia to be conducted at the project site. Such seminars might involve the various state and local supervisors of trade and industrial and technical education, as well as the leadership of the research coordinating units of the several states. Moreover, specific distribution and discussion of the findings of this experiment-demonstration is planned for the participating school districts and other organizations in newly emerging programs for the organic curriculum. Area Vocational Education Development Program : The area program is planned for: (1) implementation of the "pilot" course in area schools; (2) summer institutes and in-service training of area teachers and administrators; (3) broadening of the "pilot" curriculum, both vertically and horizontally; and (4) design and initiation of procedures to coordinate area curriculum development activities under this program. The schedule of activity for this effort is shown in the center block of Figure V-2. The area program would be a continuing one. Of major concern would be the vertical and horizontal expansion of the pilot curriculum on the part of Arizona State University and the aviation training center. Through the provision for summer institutes and in-service training, the project staff will support and coordinate area curriculum development activities in other disciplines. As alluded to above, a major function of the area program is the coordination of area curriculum development activities. The Arizona State University will seek to serve as a curriculum coordination center that would serve the area in several ways, as follows: 1. By instituting procedures for getting and utilizing feedback on the success of the new curricula 2. By developing learning materials to improve existing courses or for new courses 3. By disseminating learning materials and course information 4. By providing consultation services and training and orientation programs Regional-National Program : The tentative regional-national program would, on the regional level, involve four institutions for higher learning presently working cooperatively in the context of the Southwest Regional Laboratory for Educational Research and Development (SWRL) . V-28 Teams of selected personnel from each of the four collegiate institutions would, after proper orientation, participate with the experienced "core research staff" in planning developmental and instructional phases. Each of the four collegiate teams would approach new course material, so that additional new courses would accrue. This regional plan is specifically designed to provide the additional benefit of preparing an experienced "core" team for each of the collegiate institutions which, upon return to their respective institutions, can be instrumental in the establishment of pre-service and in-service training programs in the geographical areas they represent. On the national level, it is planned to involve teams from approximately ten institutions of higher learning representing different regions of the United States. Each institutional team would be assisted in the development of new areas or courses of instruction. The schedule for the area and regional programs is shown in the lower block of Figure V-2. The experienced "core" teams of each of the four universities who participated in the previous regional program would' necessarily be relied upon in this national program. Similarly, the original Arizona State University/General Learning Corporation research team and the experienced teams trained under the area program would be involved. Upon the culmination of this national program effort, the ten university "core" teams would return to their respective institutions to establish pre-service and in-service programs for the geographical areas which they represent. In summary, the findings of the experiment -demonstration conducted during the experimental CAL program will be used for the development of new curricula and for the in-service and pre-service teacher training programs at area, regional, and national levels. Teachers already in the field will be prepared for constructive participation in both curriculum development and in the pilot trials of the curricula being developed. The courses of instruction developed will be available to all institutions engaged in vocational- technical education. Implications for Proposed Training Center : The implications of the above described program on the future curriculum and educational systems development activities of the proposed training center are obvious. Some of the personnel presently engaged in the above described experimental CAL program will be directly involved in the establishment and operation of the proposed training center. They will establish programs V-29 similar to, or in cooperation with, the one described above for the continued investigation and development of aviation curricula and systems, utilizing to the maximum extent the results of the above program. With a cooperative working relationship between the industry, the government, and the academic community, as discussed in other sections of this report, representatives of all segments of our aviation society could be brought together in a manner similar to that described in the Regional and National part of the program above. Thus, all segments would be providing direct inputs and receiving immediate benefits through actual experience, seminars, teacher training programs, developed curriculum materials , etc., which are carried back to their respective organizations or systems for implementation. The same systems analysis and cooperative approach will be applied to other R&D areas, such as flight research, aviation medicine, maintenance research, and safety research as they apply to and influence the broad function of aviation education. V-30 Conclusions In order to develop the facilities for the proposed training center and to begin flight operations by September 1968, followed by the transfer of the current Arizona State University Aeronautical Technology program to the site by September 1969, it is concluded that the following actions will be necessary: 1. Negotiations with the Tribal Council for land use on the Reservation completed by 1 January 1968. 2. Negotiations with the U. S. Air Force regarding the use of the Goodyear Auxiliar}^ Airfield completed by 1 January 1968. 3. Establishment of a non-profit organization by the aviation industry by 1 January 1968. 4. Completion of the preliminary facilities design study by 22 January 1968. 5. Development of the site and facilities, procurement of equipment and establishment of faculty and staff for the flight center completed by 1 September 1968. 6. Detailed design of the academic facilities completed by October 1968. 7. Development of site and facilities, procurement of equipment, and the establishment of faculty and staff for the academic facilities completed by 1 September 1969. Recommendations It Is recommended that the dates set forth under Conclusions above be accepted as target dates for the completion of the activities cited, and that every effort be made to meet the schedule. This will assure early establishment and operation of an aviation training center of national significance and, more importantly, it will provide for the early economic uplift for the disadvantaged Indian population and people in the surrounding communities. V-31 * U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1967 O — 274-551 1 4/0* °*<* s *t £S o* »* PE NW I STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES AD000712a e i342