*\* SWE %, r 'h Va stf ^ \Sl* / ^ OFC % s c -£&r **TES O* PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT PLAN Automation of Field Operations and Services Revised June 1976 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://www.archive.org/details/programdevelopmeOOunit & ^1^5"*^ *m*. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT PLAN Automation of Field Operations and Services X Revised June 1976 Silver Spring, Md. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ■£ Elliot L. Richardson, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 5 Robert M. White, Administrator National Weather Service George P. Cressman, Director NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT PLAN AUTOMATION OF FIELD OPERATIONS AND SERVICES (AFOS) FOREWORD This revised Program Development Plan (PDP) has been prepared to provide information on the automation of field operations and services within the National Weather Service (NWS) . As in the case of any multi-year plan, it is subject to modification and revision as a result of either changing requirements and technology or direction by the Executive and Legislative Branches of the Federal Government. This PDP represents the present intentions of the National Weather Service for the expenditure of AFOS resources provided by the Congress. The PDP serves several purposes. Most importantly, it sets forth the results of organized ana coordinated program planning. In addition, it provides for management direction and control, serves as the Program Manager's charter, provides an effective communications system for disseminating program information, ana provides a logical means for obtaining necessary approval and resource authorization. This revision reflects changes in the following major areas: o Expression of all costs and savings in FY-76 dollars o Current AFOS organization and management structure in the NWS o Schedules fitted to the actual funding level provided Dy the Congress o Addition of the Satellite Field Service Stations, Air Force Global Weather Central, and NWS Technical Training Center to the funding and equipment schedules o Deletion of certain detailed information which may now be found in specific plans and documents of the AFOS Program. The AFOS Implementation Staff is responsible for keeping this document current. As substantive changes occur, it will be updated and reissued. 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD i List of Figures iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.0 AN OVERVIEW OF THE AFOS PROGRAM 7 1.1 Present NWS Field Operations Structure 8 1.2 The Evolution of AFOS 12 1.3 The AFOS Concept 12 1.4 The Basic AFOS System 15 1.5 Summary 22 2.0 SCOPE AND GOALS 23 2.1 Scope 23 2.2 Goals 25 3.0 BENEFITS 31 3.1 Increased Responsiveness 31 3.2 Greater Productivity 33 4.0 TECHNICAL PLAN 35 4.1 Basic Design Concepts 35 4.1.1 Overall Systems Guidelines 36 4.1.2 General Characteristics 38 4.2 Description of the System 38 4.2.1 AFOS Experimental Facility 41 4.2.2 Forecast and Guidance Subsystem 42 4.2.3 The Service Suosystem 48 4.2.4 Interfaces 55 4.3 Program Activity Plan 57 4.3.1 Major Project Areas 57 4.3.2 Relative Time Line of Program Activities 61 4.4 Evolution of System Enhancement 63 5.0 MANAGEMENT PLAN 65 5.1 Program Organization 65 5.2 Program Responsibilities 67 in 5.3 Implementation Schedule 5.4 Procurement Approach 5.5 Management and Reporting Procedures 5.5.1 Program Development Plan 5.5.2 Program Cooraination 5.5.3 Contractors Monthly and Quarterly Progress Reports 5.5.4 Program Documentation 5.5.5 Technical Documentary Report 5.5.6 Technical Papers 67 73 76 75 75 76 76 76 76 6.0 RESOURCE IMPACTS 7 7 6.1 AFOS Requirements 6.1.1 Capital Costs 6.1.2 Recurring Costs 6.1.3 Summary ot Resource Requirements 6.2 AFOS Savings 6.2.1 Jobs Reprogrammed 6.2.2 Man-hour Savings 6.2.3 Communications Savings 77 78 16 78 80 80 80 30 7.0 OPERATIONAL AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS 7.1 Implementation Concept and Evolution 7.2 Related System Improvement Programs 7.2.1 Radar 7.2.2 Satellite Picture Distribution 7.2.3 Upper Air Minicomputers 7.2.4 Remote Automatic Meteorological Observing System (RAMOS) 7.2.5 Integration of Data Acquisition Activities 86 86 91 91 97 9 7 97 101 APPENDIX 1 EXPERIMENTAL FACILITY APPENDIX 2 EXPERIMENTS AND TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 102 106 117 iv LIST OF FIGURES ES-1 AFOS Display Console 2 ES-2 AFOS National Distribution Circuit 3 ES-3 Expected Improvements in Warning Response Time 5 1-1 NWS Field Structure for Technical Operations 9 1-2 The AFOS Concept 14 1-3 AFOS National Distribution Circuit (NDC) 16 1-4 Typical AFOS WSFO Configuration 18 1-5 WSFO-Area Communications 21 2-1 Interrelationship of the AFOS Program and 24 Other NWS Developmental Activities 2-2 Expected Improvements in Warning Response Time 26 2-3 Expected Improvement in Professional Productivity 27 at WSFOs 2-4 Expected Actual and Potential AFOS Annual Savings 29 4-1 AFOS System Components 39 4-2 AFOS Forecast and Guidance System 43 4-3 Typical WSFO Area Complex 45 4-4 Typical RFC complex 47 4-5 AFOS Service Subsystem 49 4-6 Basic WSO Configuration 51 4-7 State Distribution Circuits (SDC) 53 4-8 NDC and SDC 54 4-9 Hierarchy of AFOS Plans 58 4-10 AFOS Project Structure 59 4-11 AFOS Project Relationships 60 4-12 Basic AFOS System Implementation Schedule 62 5-1 AFOS Organization 66 5-2 AFOS Capital Expenditures - Percent Funded 70 5-3 AFOS Implementation Plan — Percent Funded by 71 Fiscal Year 5-4 WSFO AFOS Implementation 72 6-1 AFOS Spending Level 77 6-2 AFOS Position Costs and Savings by Fiscal Years 82 6-3 AFOS Costs and Savings 85 7-1 AFOS Implementation — A Phased Schedule of 87 Project Activities 7-2 AFOS Office Implementation Activities and 89 Milestones 7-3 AFOS System Implementation Activities and Major 90 Milestones 7-4 Weather Radar Display 93 7-5 Weather Radar Video Integrator and Processor 94 (VIP) 7-6 Digitized Radar Experiment (D/RADEX) 95 7-7 D/RADEX Digital Representations 96 7-3 Satellite Picture Distribution 9b 7-9 Remote Automatic Meteorological Observing System 100 ( RAMOS ) 7-10 Interrelationship of Automated Data Acquisition 101 Systems Al-1 AFOS Experimental Forecaster Console 103 Al-2 AFOS Experimental System Console 104 A2-1 AFOS Experimentation Process 108 A2-2 AFOS Experimentation Schedule 113 A2-3 Illustration of the Flow of Experiments and 116 Techniques Development vi AUTOMATION OF FIELD OPERATIONS AND SERVICES (AFOS) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The National Weather Service of NOAA has established the AFOS Program to help it meet- the Nation's ever increasing need for more and better forecast ana warning services. To this end AFOS provides for a comprehensive introduction of modern technology to: o Increase the productivity and effectiveness of NWS personnel . o Increase the timeliness and quality of NWS warning and forecast services. Moreover, it provides efficiencies which allow the capital investment in the AFOS system to be paid off in seven to eight years. Through AFOS, the National Weather Service offices will be provided with proven off-the-shelf processing, display, and communications technology which will enable it to reach these goals by: o Automating the routine duties of professional personnel, o Providing automated assistance to the professional aspects of the forecaster's job, and o Communicating data to the forecaster and services to the public dissemination media over high-speed processor- controlled circuits. The AFOS System Each NWS office is provided with processors and displays suited to its requirements. A typical station display console is shown in Figure ES-1. The processor/display combination provides the automated communications, data storage, retrieval, and assists to the forecaster. Basic meteorological data, analyses, forecasts, and warnings are distributed among major NWS offices over a high-speed dedicated National Distribution Circuit (Figure ES-2) . Additional circuitry links service offices to the major offices. BfflMB— ■T"""~ O 03 c o >^ id a CO o g < I CO w o H :-' CC LU I- GO LU cc o LU 1- H 00 z < LU o o LU -J CC < O GO z LL o o CC LU •H o J-l C o •H •U 3 ,o •H 5-i 4J CO •H Q G O •H 4-1 cd CO e < ON I CO w 1 8 M < ^ Z QC X « Performance Benefits Tne present system for collecting, preparing, and distributing weather information is simply too slow and cumbersome to permit adequate response to warning situations. As an example from the recent (April 3, 1974) tornado experience, the typing or writing of a warning and the cutting and transmitting of a tape over one or more teletypewriter circuits can consume anywhere from five to as long as 15 minutes (as occurred in one instance at Cnicago) . AFOS will shorten the time between the recognition of hazardous weather and tne issuance of warnings to the general public to a minute or two at most (Figure ES-3) . In the case of a tornado, this time compression can make the difference between life and death. The same AFOS technology that provides the capability for quick response also relieves the professional of the myriad of routine manual tasks of data retrieval, monitor ing, and raw message composition while he provides his regular weather and river services. We estimate that our professional people have to spend about 50% of their time in activities that are incidental to their forecasting and warning responsibilities. We conservatively estimate that through AFOS 25% of their time can be converted to the production of additional professional services. This increased productivity can be investea in more and better services to agriculture, fire weather, marine, and aviation interests. CURRENT FULL DISSEMINATION (TEAR TAPES FOR RELAY CIRCUITS) RELEASE TO CIRCUIT (PREPARE TAPES) PASS MESSAGE TO COMMS (COMPOSE MESSAGE) FORECASTER AWARE OF DANGER EVENT OCCURS TIME t FULL DISSEMINATION RELEASE MESSAGE (COMPOSE MESSAGE) FORECASTER AWARE OF DANGER EVENT OCCURS FIGURE ES-3. --Expected Improvements in Warning Response Time Resource Requirements AFOS requires a significant capital outlay over the initial period of implementation; however, actual savings in operating costs and equivalent savings in the form of increased productivity show a payoff about seven years after the first full year of operations. In FY 74, 75, and 76 the Congress provided the base funding to develop, procure, install, and operate the AFOS system. Table 1 Resource Summary ($M)* FY 76 ** 72 78 19 80 81 82 Capital & Operating Cost 18.2 15.9 15.9 -14.7 8.0 6.9 6.9 Savings - - 2.0 6.1 10.2 12.9 13.2 Net -18.2 -15.9 -13.9 -8.6 +2.2 +6.0 +6.3 ♦Operating costs and savings have been adjusted to reflect inflation that has occurred since the Program Development Plan was first prepared in 1974. **Includes transition quarter. Major Milestones The major milestones in implementing the AFOS system are: o Operate the Experimental Facility - July 74 o Negotiate Contract for Field Facilities - January 76 o Begin first field installation - Fall 77 o Negotiate second contract for - Fall 77 Field Facilities (Small WSOs) o Operate total system - Early 81 1.0 AN OVERVIEW OF THE AFQS PROGRAM The NWS has, over the years, managed to keep well abreast of the ever-expanding national demands for weather-related information and services. This has been accomplished primarily through organizational growth of the field operations structure and scientific advancements' in meteorological/hydrological data collection, analysis, and prediction. The principal ingredient in this organizational growth has, of course, been people. Looking to the future, it is reasonable to expect that demands for weather-related services will continue to increase at least at the present rate. In addition, scientific advancements will, in all likelihood, accelerate through the application of computerized data analysis and prediction models. It is not, however, reasonable to assume that the field organizational structure will also continue to expand. Present Government-wide employment policies call for stabilization of the Federal work force in terms of both numbers of people and grade level. Thus, only a very controlled growth, if any, can be realistically anticipated. Furthermore, there appears to be little probability that this policy will undergo any significant revision in the foreseeable future. The Problem ; The National Weather Service (NWS) is requirea to provide an ever-increasing population of users, in terms of both numbers and kinds of services, with the highest quality products that the scientific state-of-the-art will permit without extensive expansion of the field staffing structure. The results of an extensive series of analyses, experiments, and system developments conducted oy the NWS over the last few years indicate quite clearly that a large-scale effort toward nationwide automation of field operations and services is required to solve this problem. Through automation, products can be moved through the system to the end users in a fraction of the time that it presently takes, professional level field personnel can be relieved of time-consuming subprofessional tasks, and overall system response to emergency situations can be signficantly enhanced. The AFOS (Automation of Field Operations and Services) program has been established to introduce automation into the NWS field operations environment. Base funding for the total program has been provided in FY 74, 75, and 76 by the Congress. The program encompasses all of the necessary activities required to identify which of the field functions should be automated, ho* they should be automated, and how the automation concept should be operationally implemented. It provides for the design of the nationwide system down to the lowest level of detail, it provides for extensive pre-implementation system experimentation and shakedown, and it provides for the development of a detailed strategy for introducing the actual system components into the field environment on a station-by-station basis. 1.1 PRESENT NWS FIELD OPERATIONS STRUCTURE The present NWS field structure consists of a number of elements (See Figure 1-1) . The main ones and their responsibilities are: o National Centers issue forecast guidance on a nation- wide scale. o Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFO) issue forecasts and guidance for smaller (state size) areas. o Weather Service Offices (WSO) are concerned with forecasts and warnings for local areas. o Weather Service Meteorological Observatories (WSrtO) are concerned only with the acquisition of weather data. o River Forecast Centers (RFC) provide forecasts and guidance of hydrologic interests for major drainage areas . For a detailed description of NWS operations, see the document, "Operations of the National Weather Service," U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, January 1976. NMC NHC WSFOS (52) WSOS (245) WSMOS (43) NSSFC RFCS(14) FIGURE 1-1.--NWS Field Structure for Technical Operations 10 National Meteorological Center (NMC) . Virtually all meteorological data ultimately arrives at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in Suitland, Maryland, where it is correlated, analyzed, and scientifically processed into a variety of products (analyses, prognoses, etc.). Presently, NMC distributes most as graphic products via three independent facsimile circuits, each of which provides national distribution of certain predefined classes of products. In addition to NWS field facilities, facsimile circuit "drops" are available to virtually any organization or individual within the United States who is willing to buy or lease a facsimile recorder and pay the cost of the "drop." At present, the NMC outputs over 500 graphic and 200 teletypewriter transmissions per day. Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFOs) . There are 52 Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFOs) , each of which generates and issues weather forecasts and other relevant products for a specified geographic area. Although there are some exceptions, forecast area boundaries generally coincide with state boundaries. In addition to teletypewriter and NMC facsimile circuit data, all WSFOs have voice communications with both NWS and non-NWS area observers and many also have a weather observing function, i.e., surface, radar, upper air or any combination of these. Some WSFOs also have a Weather Service radar remote receiver which provides a near-real-time facsimile image of the video data from a remotely located NWS radar. Collocated at five of these WSFOs and the National Severe Storms Forecast Center are the Satellite Field Service Stations (SFSSs) of NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Service. A staff of trained satellite meteorologists in each SFSS analyzes satellite pictures and supports NWS service personnel in using the picture and the results of their analyses. These stations are considered in the development of AFOS systems for the NWS collocated office. Weather Service Offices (WSOs) . Below the WSFOs in the field structure are approximately 250 Weather Service Offices (WSOs) . They receive local ana regional teletypewriter data and, in most cases, a limited number of NMC- generated facsimile charts. Although the basic forecast responsibilities of the WSOs are quite limited, they are responsible for the preparation of local warnings and the refinement or revision of the WSFO products to render them more meaningful to the local populace. Like the WSFOs, the WSOs issue forecasts, warnings, etc., but the areas they serve are much smaller and the forecast timeframe is generally shorter. Some 11 WSOs have remote radar receivers and virtually all have a weather observing and transmission responsibility. Weather Service Meteorological Observatories (WSMOs) . The lowest level field station is the Weather Service Meteorological Observatory (WSMO) which generally has data acquisition responsibilities only. WSMOs normally have a single teletypewriter "drop" for entering their data into the system, although those which include radars have facsimile and additional teletype drops. WSMOs have no forecast or warning responsibilities, but may have important interpretative functions. Other National Centers . Two major NWS facilities (in addition to NMC) have national responsibilities; they are the National Hurricane Center (NHC) located in Coral Gables, Florida, and the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) in Kansas City, Missouri. They function very much like WSFOs except that their area of responsibility is defined in terms of meteorological phenomena to be forecast. The NHC is responsible for all technical matters pertaining to Atlantic hurricanes, while the NSSFC nas nationwide responsibility for the preparation and issuance of severe local storm (including tornado) forecasts. Both the NHC and the NSSFC have on-site automated data processing capability and nave access to all local, regional, and national teletypewriter and graphic data. The NHC also collects data directly from other nations in the Caribbean, South Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico areas. Hurricane forecasts and warnings in the Eastern Pacific are the responsibility of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center, collocated with the San Francisco WSFO in Redwood City, California. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center, collocated with the Honolulu, Hawaii, WSFO, is responsible for hurricane predictions and warnings in the Central Pacific. The National Weather Service Technical Training Center (NWSTTC) in Kansas City, Missouri provides a centralized facility for the training of field meteorological, hydrological , and electronic technicians. The NOAA Environmental Data Service's National Climatic Center (NCC) also is considered in the development of the AFOS system. This Center is responsible for the provision of climatic services and the archiving of environmental data received from the NWS, other NOAA components and government agencies. The environmental data are generally collected in non-real-time (by mail) at the Center . 12 R iver For ecast Center s (RFC) . Within the U.S. there are 12 (ultimately 14) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) which collect and process hydrological and meteorological data and prepare forecasts of stream level and flow rates for primary points along river systems and warnings of flood conditions. Most WSFO/WSOs will enter hydrologic data on AFOS for RFC use and they will use RFC outputs in tne preparation of hydrologic forecasts and warnings for their areas. Like the WSFOs, the RFCs receive area and regional teletypewriter data and selected NrtC graphics. Weather radar data are used extensively at RFCs along with data transmitted to the RFC oy the WSFOs and WSOs. This data is obtained from high-density rain gauge fields, snow depth measuring devices, etc., which are established and operated primarily for hydrologic applications. The boundaries of the areas of RFC responsibilities are defined by the drainage areas of major river systems. I- 2 THE EVOLUTION OF AFOS In recent years the Systems Development Office (SDO) of the NWS has sponsored and conducted in-house a number of analytical, experimental, and developmental efforts relating to the application of automation in the NWS field environment. Although the majority of these efforts were focused on individual functions of field operations, the combined results showed rather conclusively that a more comprehensive, integrated approach was required if the full benefits of automation were to be realized. One of these efforts, the WSFO Data Handling Study, was the springboard to the AFOS concept; it showed that: o A system with widely distributed data processing and mass storage capability is far more cost-effective than either a centralized or regionalized system, o Existing field station procedures and operational products can be readily tailored for compatibility with the overall concept of automation, and o An operational hierarchy of field stations is desirable with the WSFO as the focal point for all area data acquisition and distribution functions. 1.3 THE AFOS CONCEPT Based on these results, the AFOS program was established in early 1972 to integrate all NWS efforts in the area of field automation. In its broadest sense, AFOS is concerned with the introduction of modern technology to all levels of NWS field operations in a systematic, integrated, cost-effective manner. 13 The field operations addressed by the overall AFOS concept fall into eight basic functional areas, as defined below: (1) Data Acquisition . The sensing, directly or indirectly, of environmental phenomena. (2) Preprocessing . The conversion of the acquired data to a form suitable for operational use and/or transmission to a processing facility. (3) Processing . The process of translating large quantities and varieties of preprocessed data into new product forms via computer-based modeling techniques. (4) Dissemination . Subfunction of the communications function which involves movement of data and products to users (particularly non-NWS users) . (5) Storage, Retrieval, and Message Composition . A composite category of closely interrelated subfunctions relating to the field forecaster's capability to access the system data base, as required, in the generation of forecast products. (6) Display . The visual presentation of stored information, both graphic and alphanumeric. (7) Data Distribution . A subfunction of the broader communications function involving movement of data among NWS facilities. (8) External Interfaces . The interfacing of the National Weather Services' information system to those of other agencies. In virtually all of these areas, there has been some progress in introducing automation and modern technology. Mostly, however, this has been concentrated in the first four. For example, in Data Acquisition, both automatic meteorological and hydrological observing stations have been developed and are being deployed. Modern minicomputers for preprocessing upper air data are being installed in the field. Our major guidance processing centers, such as NMC and our RFCs, have been leaders in the use of modeling techniques using large scale computers. The basic AFOS system has been designed to encompass the modernization of the last four functions, and to provide the vehicle for integrating the others into the total AFOS concept. Fig. 1-2 illustrates this concept. The following sections will describe the Basic AFOS System - its structure and operation. 14 *~ PROCESSING* ^ \ /guidance\ / \ (processing) / /radar\ \ \CENTERS J I /NOAA^ / PRE " \ \ \w S ' ' r WEATHER (processors \ ^"** WIRE y (radap) y ^SERVICE Ad ^— ^. /^/auto\ ISjf HYDRO- 1 g I LOGICAL /Or V STATIONS, ' £• V jL f u, V ^A £" ^ a / U/A > \ ( BASIC V*^ Q 2 / MINI- ) ( AFOS 1 < l COMP- / V SYSTEM JL^^ Z , _ V UTERS J O s> N. i £ / AUTO- ^ y* ( METEOR- \ ^ I OLOGICAL \u\STATIONS, \^\^— */ Vi \° (SATELLITE ) TV I SYSTEMS J / / OTHER- \ \ / ( AGENCY J \ / V SYSTEMS J \ 4i222[AL |N TERFACES} NOAA WEATHER RADIO AUTO- TELE- PHONES FIGURE 1-2. --The AFOS Concept 15 1.4 THE BASIC AFOS SYSTEM The Basic AFOS System is a system conceived on established principles and proven technology to meet existing requirements and to provide a structure to meet future requirements economically. Its design is based largely on the following broad systems characteristics: o Modularity o Reliability o Flexibility The major elements of the Basic AFOS System are a National Distribution Circuit, WSFO nodes, and the Intra-WSFO Area Structure . The National Distribution Circuit . A key element of the Basic AFOS System is the establishment of a closed loop, full duplex, voice grade communications line serially interconnecting all WSFOs and NWS National Centers. This National Distribution Circuit (NDC) , which will operate in a store-and-forward mode, is depicted in Figure 1-3. The NDC store-and-forward function insures that no data are "lost" in the system, that all data become available at every NDC node, and that a high degree of message integrity is achieved. In addition to performing this store-and-forward operation on every data item received from either direction on the NDC, each node selects data for local storage. Theoretically, the tiDC, operating full duplex at 2400 bits/second, can handle over 400 million data bits/day. Estimates indicate that all present NWS communications systems combined carry less than 60 million data bits/day. The NDC has an inherent "fail-softly" capability in the event of a line failure between nodes. All data entered onto the NDC goes out in both directions; therefore, no station becomes isolated as a result of a single line failure. Furthermore, dedicated lines are provided to increase the reliability of the NDC communications. Even these lines can be re-established using commercial dial-up lines. Eacn node will be equipped with an automatic dial-up capability. 16 -Z 2 c o •H ■U •H u u CO C O ♦H - 2 8 < I I I fa 17 Each WSFO on the NDC functions as (1) An area data collection point wherein all data acquired and preprocessed within that designated forecast area are collected, stored and, if required, entered onto the NDC. (2) An area data distribution and dissemination point from which all data arriving via the NDC or other local/area communications facilites can be relayed to other NWS stations or users within the forecast area. (3) An NDC store-and-forward communications node. (4) An area data bank with high-speed local access, and with medium and low-speed area wide request/reply capability. The non-WSFO nodes on the NDC will all perform the basic communications store-and-forward function, but beyond that it is difficult to generalize. The NMC , NSSFC, and NHC will extract data from the NDC, process it and then put the resulting products, both alphanumeric and graphic, on the NDC for national distribution. NMC graphic products will be entered in a digital modified vector coded form to realize a significant data compression. Map backgrounds will be permanently stored in each field system, with the combining of the background and the data being automatically accomplished at the local site. WSFO Nodes . Within eacn WSFO node are a System Console (which includes the NDC communications interfaces, two minicomputers witn their mass storage units, and a variety of area communications interfaces), three or more Display Consoles, and a Hard-Copy Device. A diagram of a typical WSFO node is provided in Figure 1-4. Each WSFO will store a selected set of products determined, to a great extent, by local requirements. Certain NMC graphic products, for example, may be stored for weeks while other items may be stored for only a matter of hours. 18 co LU E < OC ^ a S 52 D <0C Slu ^ 1- r ■ o i i u. OC CO LU „ LU > £ -1 1 SPEED Q LU uj H-: eo LU 0- CO O OBSI BRIE CON 1 Z 1 Q > o ■ HAR COP DEVI 1 1 LU 1 _l o co oc LU 1- 1 O u CO LU < -1 oo 1 2 LU LU CO OC z 1- oo CO > U. O 1 CO 1 1 1 oc EED UJ 1- CO UJ 1 & oo 1 UJ CO oc z OO 1 L u. o CO LU E o -« OS CO(j gw Zu. c o •H ■u a 50 •H C o o o fa CO 5K CO o < CO o •H a i 3 fa 19 The Display Consoles will have TV-type CRT displays. The number and type of consoles to be installed at a given WSFO will depend on the scope of the station's assigned service responsibilities. Any product in the system can be quickly called up for display on one of the console TV monitors. All monitors can be used simultaneously and the system permits graphic overlaying and the accumulation of multiple alphanumeric products in list form. The operator can compose alphanumeric messages on one of the console display monitors. Intra-WSFO Area Structure . Within each forecast area are the WSOs, WSMOs, private and commercial users, other Government users, and, in some cases, an RFC. The current design has the following characteristics: (1) Each RFC will have an on-site automatic data processing capability and display system similar to that at the forecast office, but tailored to the hydrologic requirements. (2) Every major WSO (those with warning responsibility) will have, as a minimum, a System Console, Display Console (s) , and a Hard Copy device. Other WSOs will be provided automation support reflecting their requirements and users served. (This Plan covers automation for 201 of the 245 WSOs.) (3) Every upper air and radar site (either at separate sites or collocated with a WSO or WSMO) will have an on- site processor (minicomputer) , which will be integrated into the system. (4) Commercial and private users can expect a level of service equal to or better than that presently being provided at no increase in cost other than normal inflation. (5) Other Government users will be provided with a level of service equal to or superior to that presently being provided depending on their willingness and/or ability to upgrade their facilities. (6) The specific details of the communications structure within a given forecast area will be dictated by operational considerations, the geographic arrangement of the various stations and service facilities within the area, and by the local and area communications tariff structures. 20 Each major WSO and RFC within a forecast area will have 2400 bits/second interactive communications with the WSFO on a computer-to-computer basis. All stations of this class will have direct access, through the WSFO, to any data item in the system. Normally, however, all of their data requirements will be satisfied by the WSFO via automatic transmissions. Radar and upper air sites will be interconnected either directly to the WSFO, or to a nearby WSO depending primarily on their geographic locations. Radar and upper air sites will provide their data via 2400 bps lines. Surface data, will also be routed to the nearest automated facility for further distribution. Figure 1-5 depicts a typical WSFO area configuration. 21 a LLI Q N Z < RGAN SERS _ CO 2 \ OD X o LL - >ln> w ■* *w CO 2 O I- < > CC LLI CO CO o o o CO 0) u < o i 3 fc < CC Z ULJ cc co LUD LLI < 22 System Characteristics Modular ity . The AFOS system must be inherently modular. From a strictly technological viewpoint, additional minicomputer and storage capacity, terminal devices (on or off-site), communications lines, and associated modems can be incorporated in a building-block fashion witn relative ease. Thus, no technological limitations are foreseen that preclude increasing the system capacity, or reconfiguring it in a substantial way. Tnis, in turn, ensures tnat extension of the AFOS system to satisfy future user needs can be accomplished . Rel iability . Effective reliability is achieved through a number of distinctive features. Each NDC node will have two minicomputers providing for continuous operation even though one system may be down. With respect to the integrity of tne National Distribution Circuit, dedicated voice grade telephone lines provide for reliable operations. Tnese lines, if necessary, may be backed up by the entire national commercial telephone system, since any line problems can be by-passed through an automatic dial-up procedure. Using full duplex lines provides the opportunity for moving information in both directions thus providing redundancy. Each data Durst will be checked for transmission errors as it moves in the store-and-forward mode. If both WSFO minicomputers develop problems, a neighboring WSFO will have the capability for taking over the most important forecasting, data acquisition, and dissemination responsibilities. WSO communications and minicomputer backup is proviuea using the commercial telepnone system and automatic dial-up procedures. All of these features support a nighly reliable AFOS system. Flexibil ity . Another AFOS cnaracter istic is its flexioility for accommodating a variety of weather service users. As described earlier in this document, the WSFO communications "ports" will handle every probable requirement for the acquisition, distribution, and dissemination of information. These will vary from interactive high speed exchanges to low speed teletypewriter services either on an as-needea dial- in/dial-out or dedicated line basis. 1.5 SUMMARY AFOS is a system conceived on established principles and proven technology to meet existing requirements and to provide a structure to meet future requirements economically. 23 2.0 SCOPE AND GOALS The broad goal of AFOS is to enable the NWS to meet the nation's ever-increasing needs for more and better weather and flood services without extensive expansion of the field staffing structure. AFOS seeks to achieve this goal through the comprehensive introduction of modern technology and maximum feasible automation - to increase the productivity and effectiveness of our field personnel by automating routine tasks, and improving services to users by enhancing the timeliness and quality of forecasts and warnings. The programmatic goals of AFOS are to: o Implement the Basic AFOS System by 1981 and o Systemically enhance and expand the capabilities of the Basic AFOS System. 2.1 SCOPE In the broadest sense, AFOS encompasses all activities necessary to introduce modern technology to all levels of NWS field operations. In the most narrow sense, it encompasses those activities incident to the modernization (through implementation) of the following NWS activities: o Communications, o In-situ information storage and retrieval, display, and composition at each field office, o Interfaces to information exchange systems, and o Sufficient procedural development to capitalize on the initial implementation of the new technology. Resource requirements and specific technical plans relate to the narrow scope; the program organization and procedures are designed to discharge the responsibilities cf the broader scope. In a chronological sense, the AFOS program will strongly influence all other developmental activities of the NWS until the initial modernization program is completed (estimated 1981) ; after that, AFOS will have a coordinative role in most development programs and its developmental activities will be restricted to more limited extensions of the system and improvements to the system itself on a smaller scale. The interrelationship of NWS developmental activities is illustrated in Figure 2-1. 24 AFOS OBSERVATION DEVELOPMENT FORECA DEVELO r~ i i i L 1 i 1 1 • • • • • • • • • • • NWS OPERATIONAL PROCEDURE/POLICY DEVELOPMENT FIGURE 2-1. --Interrelationship of the AFOS Program and Other NWS Developmental Activities 25 2.2 GOALS ^ A L Wlli be seen ln the remainder of this plan, the bulk of the effort and resources over the next few years will be devoted to accomplishing the programmatic objective - implementation of the Basic AFOS System. This will provide three significant ingredients essential to achievement of the overall AFOS goals: o Improved response time, o Improved productivity, and o Economy *• , improved Response Time. Improved response time will be acmeved by : o Speeding up data acquisition and data organization for the forecaster, through higher-speed communications and automated data handling, o Speeding up the time to construct and compose a warning, through automated message composition aids and ' o Speeding up the dissemination of warnings through automated message handling and switching, and hiqner speed communications. 26 A figurative illustration of the expected results is shown in Figure 2-2. CURRENT FULL DISSEMINATION (TEAR TAPES FOR RELAY CIRCUITS) RELEASE TO CIRCUIT (PREPARE TAPES) PASS MESSAGE TO COMMS (COMPOSE MESSAGE) FORECASTER AWARE OF DANGER EVENT OCCURS TIME t \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ AFOS \\ FULL DISSEMINATION RELEASE MESSAGE (COMPOSE MESSAGE) FORECASTER AWARE OF DANGER EVENT OCCURS FIGURE 2-2. --Expected Improvements in Warning Response Time 27 b. Improved Productivity . Improved productivity will be achieved by: o Automating the routine duties of professional personnel and o Providing automated assistance to the professional aspects of the forecaster's job. An illustration of these expected results is shown in Figure 2-3. CURRENT AFOS SUB-PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY SUB-PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY FIGURE 2 -3. --Expected Improvement in Professional Productivity at WSFOS 28 c. Economies . Three kinds of economies will be derived through the implementation of the 3asic AFOS System: o Real dollar savings through the redesign of the communications system (lease of lines and equipment and decrease in positions) . o Cost avoidance through increased productivity of manpower (permitting new services with same resources) . o Cost avoidance through modernization of the basic system; new services will be provided with less incremental cost due to the addition of the automated communications and basic automated processing capability) . An illustration of the economies actually and potentially realized upon implementation is shown in Figure 2-4. 29 FUTURE SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS POSITIONS AVOIDED MAN-HOURS FREED COMMS SAVED POSITIONS FREED $1.3M $5.3M $3.0M $3.6M COSTS AVOIDED COST REDUCTION NET SAVINGS <*ZL AFOS SYSTEM SAVINGS AFOS OPERATIONAL COSTS FIGURE 2-4. --Expected Actual and Potential AFOS Annual Savings 30 The program put forth in this document encompasses two major thrusts, or activity streams. These two parallel streams are best described in terms of specific programmatic objectives, as follows: o Implement the Basic AFOS System by 1981 . Includes the activities and resources required to complete the design, testing, experimentation, procurement, and installation of the Basic System hardware, software, and communications. This also includes the preparation of field facilities to allow them to accept the new system, and the training of field personnel so they are ready to operate and maintain it. ° Enhance and Expand the Capabilities of the Basic AFOS System . This is the developmental and operational applications part of the program. As such, it will continue well beyond 1981, but with outputs all along the way. These outputs will be in the form of additional capabilities to be incorporated into, or added onto, the Basic System. There will be, for example, additional software developed to incorporate improved operating procedures, and new analysis, monitoring, and forecasting techniques. There will also be new hardware/software modules developed - for instance, an automatic digital-to-voice module to allow automatic production of NOAA Weather Radio and Automatic Telephone broadcast tapes. If these developments are successful, additional funds will be sought to add them to the Basic System. 31 3.0 BENEFITS AFOS is an improvement program that will pay for itself through the system efficiencies it introduces. However, the consequent service improvements in response to public needs is of even greater interest. The impact of AFOS on a significant area of public needs is illustrated in the findings of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) . 3.1 INCREASED RESPONSIVENESS Public Law 92-125 established this 25-man blue ribbon committee to advise the President and the Secretary of Commerce on improvements needed in the marine and atmospheric sciences. During the fall of 1972, the NACOA committee carried out an evaluation of the performance of the national weather and flood forecasting-warning-dissemination system during Hurricane Agnes. NACOA concluded in a report made public in November 19721 that "While the technical and administrative resources of NOAA could be improved in certain respects, and work must be done in tne area of public response, primary effort must be focused on the warning delivery systems. "2 In its second annual report June 29, 1973, NACOA reiterated its position that "Increased priority be placed on smaller scale meteorological phenomena, on disseminating routine local forecasts, and on monitoring public response to weather forecasts and warnings. "3 l"The Agnes Floods, a Post-Audit of the Effectiveness of the Storm and Flood Warning System of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, A Report for the Administrator of NOAA", NACOA, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., November 22, 1972. 2Ibid, p. 2. 3" A Report to: The President and the Congress by NACOA, 2nd Annual Report," NACOA, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., June 29, 1973. 32 In this report NACOA states that "An effective warning delivery system must be capable of detecting an impending disaster, determining its scope, deciding on the type of warning to be issued, and disseminating the warning All of these components must function properly and quickly if lives and property are to be saved. The response time from detection to public action must be made short. "4 NACOA stated further, "... .we believe great improvement is possible for accelerating the application of existing communications and automation technology and procedures by NQAA. Furthermore, this capability is necessary to improved warning delivery. The two go hand-in-hand. The exciting prospects which can now be provided by modern technology can be seen in the concept for the Automation of Fiela Operations and Services. "5 4lbid, p. 31 5Ibid, p. 32 33 As mentioned above, one of the most critical problems facing the National Weather Service is that of trying to achieve improvements in the timeliness of warnings without sacrificing quality or reliability. Up to tne present, field forecasters have had to rely almost entirely on a manual operation to stay "on top of the weather." This includes constant handling of large volumes of paper — teletypewriter and facsimile — to assess on-going weather developments in terms of the forecasts that have been issued and to be continuously alert to the possible need for warnings. Should a warning be required, the forecaster, after sifting manually through a multitude of observational data (radar, surface, special spotter reports, etc.), will either write or type an amended forecast or compose a specific warning. This is then handed to a communicator who cuts and verifies a paper tape version that is then transmitted on one or several different teletypewriter circuits. All of the mechanical activity following product formulation can consume 15 minutes or more of precious time; in a warning situation (e.g., severe thunderstorm or tornado) , this could mean the difference between protective action or exposure to severe weather. Under AFOS, the entire forecast and warning production process becomes greatly simplified. All the data are readily and rapidly accessible from the minicomputer and its mass storage, and the forecaster, through using a keyboard and CRT screen, can rapidly compose and edit his message. When satisfied with the message content, he simply hits the transmit key and the minicomputer automatically distributes the warning message to the proper channels on a priority basis within a matter of a second or two. Through appropriate applications software, the AFOS system may also keep track of incoming data and compare it with existing forecasts and stored amendment criteria, thus providing automated real-time monitoring. When the system detects a situation which may require preparation of a warning, the forecaster is alerted by means of an audio alarm and flashing light on tne console. 3.2 GREATER PRODUCTIVITY NACOA^in evaluating the AFOS potential for increasing productivity within the NWS r states, "In general, much of the technology applied today in the field services of the NWS is of pre-World War II vintage. It is true that weather radar is in widespread use, and that the radar data are increasingly distributed by slow scan facsimile. It is also true that the observer is assisted by such modern weather observing instrumentation as ceilometers and transmissometers, but he still 34 reads dials, records his observations in his own nandwriting , and often cuts his own paper tape for transmission over teletype circuits. It is true that the forecaster has access to the output from sophisticated numerical weather prediction models run on some of the world's most powerful computers. But, to find whether rain has fallen in the next state in the last three hours, he may have to sort through many feet of teletype paper. The impact of significant advances in atmospheric sciences, and in exciting new observing techniques, such as the use of satellites, is dulled by the limitations imposed by the use of outmoded data handling and communications techniques. This is in spite of revolutionary advances in the state of the art in information handling and communications . "6 Savings that can be converted into increased productivity or expanded services as a result of AFOS implementation are of two general types. These are the time savings accumulated and the current and planned communicator jobs eliminated as a result of automation . Previous field office surveys conducted as part of the AFOS Program indicate that each forecaster on a shift spends slightly more than four hours per eignt-hour snift, depending upon the weather situation, on routine, repetitive tasks related to data handling, paper shuffling, and mechanical processes associated with forecast and warning preparation and dissemination. The automated assistance to be provided by AFOS in an integrated man- machine operation will allow an average of at least two hours per shift of this time to be applied to new or expanded services and will give a better opportunity for the forecaster to be able to respond more quickly to significant weather events. Among the services expected to benefit from this increased level of productivity are the agriculture, fire weather, aviation, marine services, and NOAA Weather Radio dissemination programs at the WSFOs. In addition, the contact with users at the state and local level will receive more attention than is currently possible . Without automation, additional staffing of 200-300 positions would be required to implement these planned program expansions. Thus, AFOS offers a unique opportunity, through increased productivity, to increase the scope and range of NWS services without corresponding increases in personnel. 6lbid, p. 32 35 4.0 TECHNICAL PLAN The Technical Plan consists of a number of levels of concepts, guidelines, and designs that address the AFOS system as a whole, the individual operating modules, ana the linkages. Further, it addresses the evolution from initial test through implementation and then system enhancement. It is important throughout to realize that system design is made up of three major components: hardware, software, and protocol — that each may impact the others and, therefore, that design decisions may be based more on system considerations than upon optimization of any one of the components. 4.1 BASIC DESIGN CONCEPTS The basic AFOS design evolves from a chain of considerations beginning with the ultimate objective of better services, through an assessment of the major problems in attaining that objective, the analysis of alternatives, all the way to the application of good engineering practices. The two design constraints imposed on concept formulation are: o Little or no increase in personnel and o Economic viability. In light of the first constraint, the key to better services evolves as greater productivity. The key to greater productivity, in turn, is the elimination of man-oriented activities not directly contributing to the production of services. Due to the nature of our forecast and warning services and the state-of-the-art in forecasting, timeliness is a significant parameter of better service; thus, the responsiveness of the current system is viewed as a hindrance to better service. One component of the hindrance involves the physical system; the other, though, is the involvement of manual operations — mostly by the same people whose professional productivity is being constrained. This development leads to two design goals: o Automate those activities a man doesn't have to do, and o provide automated assists to the man in doing what he has to do. A third design goal is to apply good systems and engineering principles. All three design goals are to be applied within the constraint of economic viability. 36 4.1.1 Overall Systems Guidelines The major guidelines to the total system design, supported in prior studies (see list of studies in Taole 4-1), are: o Distributed Automated Processing and o Cohesive Integrated Communications No artificial or arbitrary constraints on where automated processing may be accomplished have been imposed. The location and degree of processing is determined by system characteristics and requirements. 37 TABLE 4-1 LIST OF STUDIES Weather Service Forecast Office Data Handling Design - Preliminary Design - Volume I: Single Station Considerations — December 1971-URS Data Sciences Company Weather Service Forecast Office Data Handling Design Study - Preliminary Design of a Data Handling System - Volume II: Network Considerations December 1971 - URS Data Sciences Company Weather Service Forecast Office Data Handling Design Study - Conceptual Design of a Data Handling System - July 5, 1971 - URS Data Sciences Company Data Acquisition Automation Study - Sooz Allen Applied Research Inc. January 25, 1972 Preliminary Considerations for the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) - March 1972 - Synoptic Systems Corp. AFOS Design Study for Weather Service Offices - June 1973 - Synoptic Systems Corp. 33 The communications system will oe integrated ana cohesive to the extent that all data and products may automatically flow from any part of the system to any other part of the system. 4.1.2 General Cnaracter ist ics Three basic characteristics are observea in all design activities : o Modularity, o Commonality, and o Man/Machine Teams. Modularity is the key to flexible design. Due to the heterogeneity of requirements among individual NWS facilities and due to changes (with time) in requirements, a numoer of different physical configurations may be expected. These should result from combinations of basic modules rather than a variety of unique entities. The modularity principle applies to software as well as hardware. The commonality principle is a lower limit constraint on modules. Primarily in the interest of constraining maintenance and modification problems, commonality is ooserved in developing both hardware and software modules. In all aspects of design where the man interfaces with the machine, design will be predicated on the man in his physical and functional working environment. 4.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM The various types of NWS service facilities and their principal functions and responsibilities are described in Section 1.1. It will facilitate the understanding of tne AFOS design to view these facilities and other parts of the system in different combinations that are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Tne program may be viewed to consist of four major areas (Figure 4- 1) : o AFOS Experimental Facility, o Forecast and Guiaance Subsystem, o Service Subsystem, and o Interfaces. 39 00 S < C9 111 < z o cc 0- 00 > 1- $ 111 cc < z u 1- z < U. CC UJ < < Q o 00 UJ cc o cc UJ 2 oc UJ z 1- 1- z 1 ^ — u. 1 ? 1 T u 1 o ! X "5 8 o S i I < z I UJ 8 00 3 8 £ S 55 Q < I I 11 I u 2 z o u. 8 a o o o S 00 CM U) **■ o *— * u. a 92 u_ § cc s 3 M fa s 40 Except for the Experimental Facility, the areas listed above are major components of the day-to-day operational system which will evolve with AFOS. The Experimental Facility is now and will remain a developmental installation. The Forecast ana Guidance Subsystem consist of tne: National Centers (NMC, NHC, NSSFC, NCC) WSFOs RFCs SFSS System Monitoring and Coordination Center (SwCC) NDC (Including airect spurs) The Service Subsystem includes: WSOs WSMOs State Distrioution Circuits (SDC) Dissemination function Acquisition function The Interfaces include both those connecting ^WS to non-NWS systems and those connecting AFOS to other NWS systems. FAA DOD Forest Service, etc. Other national weather services Other NWS Programs 41 4.2.1 AFQS Experimental Facility The AFOS Experimental Facility and its components are describee in Appendix 1. It is primarily an R&D installation which will assume varying roles with time. Initially, the following objectives and utilization apply. Objectives In using the facility, we have two immediate objectives: (1) to evaluate the initial equipment and provide a basis for the specifications of the equipment to be purchased and (2) to evaluate software which will collect and process aata from automatic stations. On a continuing basis, our objectives are to: o Evaluate new AFOS equipment prior to fiela installation, o provide a test bed for integrating equipment and software , o provide a place in which to evaluate new techniques of forecasting, observing, data processing and dissemination, and display, and o provide training until other training facilities are available . Utility The experimental facility is used for five basic purposes. To: o Simulate operation of the NDC, o Simulate operation of a WSFO, RFC, and WSO, and o Experiment with the means of collecting data from the following : (a) RADAR (d) Upper Air (c) RAMOS (Remote Automatic Meteorological Observing System) (d) AHOS (Automatic Hyarologic Observing System) (e) cooperative observers (f) local sensors 42 o Simulate the dissemination of products, primarily over NOAA Weather Wire, and o Train people until the formal courses are available. Future Roles Parts of the Experimental Facility will support the checkout of field sites during early implementation. During this period and oeyond, it will be the site for the test and evaluation of system improvements. 4.2.2 Forecast & Guidance Subsystem All site components of the Forecast & Guidance subsystem will be nodes on the NDC or directly connected to a node by a dedicated spur (Figure 4-2) . Tne National Centers, with tne NCC as an exception, and the WSFOs within the contiguous 48 states will be direct nodes; spurs will emanate from the nearest node to the RFCs, and the WSFOs in Alaska and Hawaii and from the SACC to the NCC. Puerto Rico will be linked via satellite to NMC. All facilities will be basically equipped with System and Display Consoles. Further design criteria and descriptions of the various components follow. NATIONAL CENTERS The exact design of each of the National Centers will be unique, due to its peculiar responsibilities and, in some cases, its juxtaposition with other activities. Each is similar in that it now has and will continue to have access to a separate processing capability to discharge its national responsibilities. _J f? £ •3 CO CJ CL> u & CO s i)0Q CQ -J CO LU 1- QC LU 1- Z LU o 1- co < 1 1 • 1 St Si 8 z < LU o M o LU Fn _J QC < O C/3 z LI- X o g CC LU X LL K- > Q. co < X 4 44 NMC The NMC node will oe the entry point for all basic national analysis, prognostic, and guidance products. It will also be the exchange point for most international data and, during tne early stages of implementation, for the exchange of data and products between AFOS and the parts of the NWS system not yet implemented. The SMCC (see later) will probably also be located in close proximity to the NMC. In addition, the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) will be provided AFOS equipment to enable it to enter products on the MDC when acting as backup to NMC. NSSFC The NSSFC node will be the entry point for national severe storm products and may serve as an exchange point for alphanumeric information from and destined for the E'AA's Weather Message Switching Center. An RFC will be collocated with this node . NHC The NHC node will be the entry point for products aealing with Atlantic hurricanes and tropical analyses. It will also service the San Juan spur. At a later date, it may also serve as the entry point for Caribbean ana South American data. NCC The NCC, connected by a spur to the SMCC , is primarily a receiver in the early stages of AFOS, collecting aata for entry into the National Climatic Archives. At a later stage, however, it is expected that some requests for climatic services will be filled on a non-realtime basis via the NDC. In aadition, tne NCC may provide periodic climatic services to NWS ooerational facilities . 45 WSFO The WSFO will be equipped as previously described. There will be a number of display Consoles to match the normal work station requirements of WSFOs. The WSFO will manage its own data base within the constraints that it will have to service an RFC, an NWWS circuit, a set of WSOs and some other special situations. The WSFO acts as: o A store-and-forward node on the NDC o Source of mainly alphanumeric products o Entry point for all data and products from within its area of responsibility Figure 4-3 is a schematic of a WSFO area complex. EXTERNAL A/N USERS SUITLAND t ORGANIZED USERS FIGURE 4-3. --Typical WSFO Area Complex ■ 46 RFC The RFC performs the same kinds of in-station functions for hydrology as the WSFO performs for meteorology. It will oe serviced via dedicated line from the nearest WSFO. The SwCC will have the capability of also servicing the RFC on a backup basis. The RFC differs from the WSFO in two principal ways: (1) like a National Center it has access to a non-AFOS processor to perform the exercising of hydrologic models ana (2) it will, in some cases, interface on a computer-to-computer basis witn non-NWS organizations. The latter are typically the Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Land Management, Forest Service or, in some cases, well organized state agencies. In each of tnese cases the RFC bota receives data from the organized user and delivers data and products. The RFC is the source of river forecasts and neadwater advisories, the entry point of observations mainly dealing witn hydrologic interest and the recipient of the normal types of weather data and products. Figure 4-4 is a schematic of a typical RFC complex. SFSS The Satellite Field Service Station wiil be provided a display console and a hard copy capability. Tnese will be served by the AFOS system at the collocated NWS facility. The SFSS will be able to receive and display ooth graphic and alphanumeric products, and to prepare and enter messages into tne NWS AFOS system. Ill 1- . *E cc 111 LU cc \- CO z O 1- i k 1 ' < 1- co AFOS PROC. SYS. ^ o cc u i < CO UJ _1 o CO z R cu o o g Pi o •H a H i 8 pti UJ N is ^ cc cj?uj cc co OD 4d SinCC The SMCC is a new functional organization within tne operational AFOS. In general, it will be tne center for monitoring and coordinating the operation of the total AFOS operating system. It will have the responsioility for assessing the system status, recovery from failure, maintenance of system software, and evaluation of system operations. It will also serve as the interface to an NWS management information system. NDC The NDC is the communications trunk that ties together the components of the Forecast and Guidance Subsystem. It is described in some detail in Section 1. 3. While the initial design is that of a full duplex loop, it should be noted that the configuration may oe changed (if such is required oy future developments) with a minimum impact or i basic circuit connected hardware and software modules. For example, it is anticipated that future developments in mesoscale services may generate a considerable data load of limited area i interest. In such an event the single trunk may be readily replaced by an overlay of interlaced re gional loops. All would still operate with the same protocol and in the store-and-forward mode. The NDC is shown in Figure 1-3. 4.2.3 Tne Service Subsystem The components of the Service Subsystem are very much oriented to interests within the area of responsibility of a single WSFO. The principal functions involved are the preparation of warnings, acquisition of data for higher level interest and the dissemination of special and routine services within the confines of the WSFO area. Tne WSOs are connected to their parent WSFO via individual State Distribution Circuits (SDC) . Each WSO manages tne collection of data from individual locations within its area, and enters them on the SDC for ultimate distribution on the NDC. The automated data sources (radar, upper air, and surface) are linked to a WSO via a dedicated circuit(s). Figure 4-5 is a schematic of a configuration within a typical Service Subsystem area. Further design criteria and descriptions of the various components follow. 49 wso ▼ LOCAL USERS (PHONE, RADIO, TV) OBSERVATIONS FIGURE 4-5.--AF0S Service Subsystem 50 WSO As a facility, the WSO with warning responsibilities and 24 hours of operation will be a WSFO in miniature. A schematic of its components is shown in Figure 4-6. Only the distribution of functions differs. In a facility sense, the WSO is equipped with a processor, mass storage, display devices, and data entry device. All are on a smaller scale tnan the similar components of the WSFO. The principal products of the WSO are warnings ana local forecasts. The latter are generally based on products of the WSFO; however, warnings are more likely to be generated from sources within the WSO area of responsibility (e.j., local cooperative observer networks or radar observations) . In tne early stages of AFOS the WSO will be responsible for key-entry of all local site data and key-entry or tape transfer entry of otner non-automated data sources within the WSO area of responsibility. As radar, upper air, and surface sites are automated the entry of data in the SOC will also be automated. The small WSOs (SWSO) with no (or limitea) warning responsibilities and/or limited hours of operations will be provided automation support compatible with their requirements. This can oe reflected by a further reduction in the size of the AFOS system components or the use of display systems serviced remotely from another location with an AFOS systems console. 51 i — (AUTOMATED) SERVICE TO ^. EXTERNAL USERS ^* MESSAGE COMP. DEVICE (MAN) FIGURE 4-6. --Basic WSO Configuration 52 WSrtO Most WSMOs are either upper air (U/A) or radar sites — or a combination of the two. Each of these acquistion functions will have a processor . UPPER AIR (U/A) The U/A processor is used as an operator assist system (i.e., it performs processing functions on data enterea by the operators) . Since the U/A function is performed just twice daily, for about two hours each time, these processors have been given the additional responsibility for routinely, or upon request, collecting data from automated surface sensors. The processor will be linked to a WSFO or WSO processor for entry of upper air and collected surface data. RADAR The radar processor is dedicated to providing for the interpretation of the raw radar return in terms of analytic products. It acts functionally as a data concentrator to reduce the potentially heavy loads that raw data would impose on communications lines. The radar processor will also synthesize special data messages for further processing at WSOs, WSFOs, and RFCs. SOC The SDCs will normally De bounded within a state although exceptions exist where an SDC will cross state borders. The SDC f operating at 2400 bits/second, will connect the WSOs within a single WSFO area of responsibility to tnat parent WSFO. An illustration of the SDCs is shown in Figure 4-7. The linkage of the SDCs with the NDC is shown in Figure 4-8. 8 CO CO 4-1 •H O J-i •H U c o •H 4-1 £i •H J-l 4-1 CO •H Q 0) •U CO 4-1 CO I I I to CO § p =? I 00 fe 55 Dissemination ana Acquisition Functions Tne other dissemination functions are those that either exist now only as manual functions or do not exist at all due to deficiencies of technology. They are generally the subject of developmental work in the AFOS experimental program. Among these are: o Automated collection of non-automated data sources. o Automated production of audio products. o Automated production of TV products. 4.2.4 Interfaces The AFOS design is concerned with two types of major systems interfaces, viz., with systems external to NWS operations and with tnose within the NitfS that are external to the AFOS Program. EXTERNAL INTERFACES The NWS is the source of most raw weather data and oasic analyses and prognoses for other agencies having significant weather interests. In turn, other agencies are the source of significant amounts of data of interest to the NWS. Although tne specific special interfaces will not be required until well into the implementation of AFOS, exploratory designs have been developed and these, agencies are being kept postea on AFOS progress. The general design of the interfaces are: o For nationally integrated agency systems a single interface is plannea. o For regionally integrated agency systems the interface will be at tne center of region activity. o More fractionated agency interfaces will be defined by primary functional interest (e.g., RFCs for hydrologic interests) or by the degree of conglomeration tnat may exist among the multi-agency interests. Some additional information concerning the individual interfaces follow. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION The Federal Aviation Administration system has a strong national-oriented organization which forms a single interface at Kansas City. (The FAA is currently studying modernization of their systems. Tne initial concepts are compatible with AFOS 56 designs and ooth agencies are keeping abreast of each otners* efforts) . DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE The Air Force Air leather Service (AFAWS) is centrally organized and furthermore, the Global Weather Central (GWC) acts as the national backup to the NMC. An interface will oe established at the GWC in Omaha, Nebraska. It is possible that other interfaces may prove to be mutually desirable. Prooable Naval Weather Service interfaces have not oeen established, although the potential for the future development of an interface seems likely. The Corps of Engineers is basically organized oy districts. The mutual interests are primarily nydrology oriented. It is planned to interface with the Corps of Engineers tnrougn the RFCs. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Although organizationally dispersed, the Forest Service is currently planning its weather data system to be centrally oriented. Based on initial contacts and current forestry design inclinations, a single interface is likely with this centralized data system. INTERNATIONAL It is currently planned that the vast majority of international information exchange will take place through the Suitland Communications Center. At a later stage, toward the end of AF03 implementation, additional entries may be established at San Francisco or Honolulu; Miami; and several potential interfaces with the Canadian weather system. STATE AGENCIES Specific interfaces for State Agency operations have not been designed. However, it is expected there will be a variety of types of interfaces conditioned on the degree of organization and automation of the individual agency. INTERNAL INTERFACES The internal interfaces are mentioned largely for administrative reasons — i.e., to delineate those parts of AFOS that are not provided for by AFOS funding discussed in Section 6.0. The design activity actually considers those programs 57 within the AFOS sphere of interest. Technical information concerning them is given in Section 7.2. 4.3 PROGRAM ACTIVITY PLAN The AFOS Program is a very pervasive effort which significantly involves nearly every element of the NWS staff, management, and operating structure. While this is a desirable situation from the point of view of organizational involvement, it is mandated by the nature of the transition that must take place from the current system to AFOS. Because of the nature of NWS responsibilities, the transition cannot take place simultaneously for the whole system. Thus, for approximately four years a mixture of the systems will exist on an operational basis to some extent. During this period, a hierarchy of AFOS plans, Figure 4-9, will guide the AFOS activities. This 'Program Development,' providing program goals and objectives, is translated into a Resource Allocation Plan, Program Schedules, and AFOS Handbook No. 1, AFOS Management and Procedures. These provide program direction and guidance to all the other plans snown in Figure 4-y. 4.3.1 Major Project Areas The major projects that are identified with AFOS are snown in Figure 4-10. These represent a further transition of planning relationships into areas of work. Each project is further divided into a number of f ields-of-ef f ort , where the output is a product, serves a program function, or provides service(s). The relationship among the twelve projects are depicted in Figure 4- 11. 58 (/> re «/> 3 o C o re c/i tion and upport Plans/D c re > e c re Q. en C CD H c 0) E 0) en re c re M c re 0. c '•5 re e C re 0> la re 0- M ■o c -> c '•5 re i_ 3 CD 3 re re 0. c re a. m o "+3 0. en J5 c/> re "O 5 CM C o re a CD Ib a. c re a. en c re c o _re > LU •_ ^^ c re *♦- "O c .£■ •o V u re u. +■< C en a O ha V5 o o LZ re O _l 0) iZ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I * +* c * 0) E i a 09 > C CD re D C w C cc i-< CO B < <4-l o o H CO ^ •H w I I • I H fa c CD o < o k. +- 3 O s o c a> = re CC < a. 2 c C re O » 0«/> CD C +3 o -z •^ o re ■_■ S-t a> c • EC „ «> .£ "S W 3 C w E w 5. 're cd S £ © +-■ -m ^ a> a) c « O CO S > > O a> O Q * * 59 Program Management and Develop and Review ■ AFOS Management and Procedures Integrate and Monitor Program Schedules Prepare and Review "AFOS PDP Prepare and Review ■AFOS Implementation Plan B Review and File AFOS Documentation Coordinate and Maintain *AFOS Requirements & Specs. Prepare and Review "AFOS PDP Budget and Resource Allocation Inter- Agency Coordination • AFOS Program Review • Program Coordination , Disseminate Information About AFOS Forecast Applications t Prepare Applications Development Plan Techniques & ■Applications Development ■ Prepare Facility Preparation Plan: ■ Survey Field Sites and Specify Facility Mods. » Modify & Prepare AFOS Facilities System Development Experimentation Prepare Systems Development Plan Communications Network "Design 81 Development National Center Development B WSFO, RFC, WSO Development — SMCC Development Design & Specify Basic "System Hardware Mods. Design and Specify Basic ■ System Hardware Expansions Design, Specify, Prepare ■& Document Basic System Software & All Modifications Interface Data ■ Acquisition Functions with AFOS ^Experimental Facility Management & Maintenance Coordination of External AFOS Procurement Communications Interfaces Define and Document AFOS Basic System Prepare Comms. — External Interface — (Processing/Comms — Installation Plans and Requirements Network) Network/Site Specs Design and Document "Technical Interface AFOS Basic System (Small WSO Systems') ^Procure and Prepare for Basic System Installation Specifications _AFOS Basic Systems Procure and Prepare for .Negotiate & Commit Expansions "External Interface AFOS to l/F Spec _ AFOS Interfaces with Installations Data Acquisition _Phase-Out Non-Essential Existing Communications — Experimental Facility Hardware Installation and Field Testing — Prepare AFOS Training Plan — Pre/Post Acceptance Training Recurring Training Configuration Management • Prepare Installation and Field Test Plans ■ Integrate and Field Test AFOS Systems Develop Plan, Procedures and Policies . Implement and Monitor Control Procedures , Maintain AFOS Specification Documents * Verify Compliance of Installed Hardware & Software with AFOS Specs . Monitor AFOS Operational Configuration i Prepare Analysis an Evaluation Plan Monitor Field Operations , Synthesize Ops. Information and Assess Experience ' Coordinate Probler Assist Solutions Operate AFOS System . Prepare & Issue Operational Directives • Develop Operations, Comms, and Maintenance Handbooks ■ Develop and Implement Logistics Plan » Develop and Implement Maintenance Plan , Develop and Implement Field Manning Plan » Develop and Maintain NWS PILs » Operate SMCC > Operate National Centers • Operate WSFOs, RFCs, WSOs, and WSMOs and Comms Network FIGURE 4-10- -AFOS Project Structure 60 c o — "£ JS to 5 a> •— fi m OUJ » O 4- c O O - a) O 2 3 •*; E c (i a c .2 ■c "5. a> I- « < Q 0) I - "E S i E ° s i 2 c .2 <* +- ti re v. 5 ■£ O oS ^ » E 8 5L &"g & CO UJ ra CO c o ♦* = *" ra 2 = gil to CO § SOS an. £ O ■ — u. a. CO •H X! CO C o •H 4-) u 0) "-) o u B H 61 4.3.2 Relative Time Line of Program Activities The schedule of activities and milestones are tied to the two AFOS procurements. The first procurement has five increments and the second two increments. Each increment represents the exercising of either a contract or its options as funds become available eacn Fiscal Year. Planned relative time lines of activities related to these procurements are shown in Figure 4- 12. While design, experimentation, test, ana evaluation activities will be virtually continuous until the AFOS system becomes fully operational, significant readouts will be keyed to the procurement increments. 62 AFOS Basic System CY 1975 CY 1976 CY 1977 CY 1978 CY 1979 CY 1980 INCREMENT 1 A. Award Contract B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Experimental Facility Test F. Commission Exper. Fac. Sys. O CO > CO INCREMENT 2 A. Exercise Option B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned '5 INCREMENT 3 A. Exercise Option B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned A- A- -4 INCREMENT 4 A. Exercise Option B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned -A A INCREMENT 5 A. Exercise Option B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned o CO g ■o I INCREMENT 1 A. Award Contract B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned -A A > CO O CO 5 E CO INCREMENT 2 A. Exercise Option B. Fabricate Hardware C. Prepare Software D. Ship/lnstall/Accept Systems E. Field Test F. All Incr. Sites Commissioned 8. AFOS Basic System Complete FY 76 FY 77 i FY 78 i FY 79 FY 80 FY 75 + TO FY 81 FIGURE 4-12. --Basic AFOS System Implementation Schedule 63 4.4 EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT The initial phases of the AFOS program are tied to the development design and equipment specifications for procurement of equipment for the Forecast and Guidance subs/stem, major WSOs, and small WSOs. The program will evolve from this initial emphasis on equipment utility to implementation, to basic applications development, and to training and forecast techniques development . The problems of implementation, particularly those which directly affect tne forecaster and how he does his present job, is one of concern. Also, related on-going automation programs in the NWS will be integrated into AFOS during the implementation. Hardware development in many of these areas (such as RAMOS ana AHOS) is well advanced. The problem of software integration of these systems is a major one. The entire AFOS system will oe enhanced as these problems are resolved and the necessary software is incorporated into the basic operating system. Additional hardware and software will be developea to add to the basic capabilities of AFOS. Tnis is particularly important since the total system will not only save the forecaster time, but it will also allow him to "look" at the atmosphere from different perspectives. One important change will be the increase of locally acquired data. These data can provide important insights into the mesoscale forecast problem — particularly when combined with new, localized products prepared at the major centers. 8y early 1977, the program will nave evolved to a point where locally generated analyses and guidance products can be considered. Experimentation and development will be a continuing effort in support of the evolving technical plan. One of the major advantages of AFOS is its modularity. As segments — either of hardware or software — are devised, evaluated, and formalized they can be introduced into the operating program. Forecast technique efforts will follow a logical pattern enroute to implementation. Each new proposed development effort will be assigned a priority. Research and development resources will be expended according to the priorities. In-house testing will be required before a new application is considered for implementation. Next, as each new effort is readied for use in AFOS, computer programming will be initiated. Then the program will be turned over to those responsible for experimentation. Normally such experimentation will take place at the Experimental Facility. 64 Details of the experimental structure are contained in Appendix 2. Results will determine the future of each proposed candidate. If rigorous testing indicates a product is ready for operational use, that product will be implemented. On the other hand, if testing indicates the product is not ready for implementation, it will be reappraised or redesigned. Examples of products that will be included in the initial technique development programs are discussed in Appendix 2. 65 5.0 MANAGEMENT PLAN The National Weather Service (NWS) is assigned management responsibility for the AFOS program by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Headquarters. This includes responsibility for system design, integration, procurements, and implementation. As a major step in exercising tne responsibility, the NWS has issued the AFOS Handoook No. 1, Management and Procedures. This provides the assignment of responsibilities, procedures, and program guidance for the continued development and implementation of AFOS. AFOS Management Concepts - Establish and maintain the necessary framework for implementing the total AFOS System including an integrated planning effort involving all aspects of the NWS operation. Each NWS headquarters office and field office will be charged with certain responsibilities. Tne organizational structure established for AFOS will be reviewed on a regular basis. These regular assessments will help insure that effective inter-relationships are defined. 5.1 PROGRAM ORGANIZATION The program is being carried out within the Headquarters, NWS, with support from other elements of the NWS, NOAA, and Department of Commerce. Figure 5-1 shows the program organization superimposed on the functional NWS organization. 66 X cc CL cc cc < X cc < cc cc < X cc cc cc < X cc o cc cc < I cc 00 cc cc < I cc 111 cc cc < cc LL < o z cc o < 1 1 cc LL < cc LL < 00 h- o cc o < 1 1 1 cc LL < cc LL < X i ° cc o < 1 1 cc LL < cc LL < o o cc o < 1 cc LL < en o> in .— "5» it o O O a> Oj ■ — •*■ .z. re 3 to re O" 3 3 ■D O" O" re -a xi a> re re I « (i *£ S O U) Q. re 3 -C O O 0.S 43 £ o> a cc ■= I I > 2 a) _ c c o o 'En 'En CC cc re u O ■- £ en > © XI o ™£ QJ XI a c 00 re i£ CC re O CC I I I O X 1 ^ I o CO CO 00 o o o LL LL LL < < < cc cc cc O CC LL < < < a re >- =71 o c fei oo re 0) re 00 c re c o> u *£ o o O dd > o '> i- 0) c a> O "re o 00 OJ re 3 CT 0> re cr X! 00 0) ■(■J re IT c 0) E a en O O > CD o 00 "re o en O o X re 9 I 0) c ■3 re 09 X a> £ 0) O 0> u c o a C '£n c o 0> a > Q 03 > 0) t- 0) en a 09 'En 05 F H- H_ H- LL c CC 00 O £ o> o o> u o 0) u O 0! o re c O C 0! 09 "re ■>-> LL 00 H- *- 00 _J ~>- *- V- 4- re re n O' < 00 o Z LU 00 O c o •H ■u cfl N *H C Ctf GO L) o 00 s < I s o H I I I I I I i o * • CO 67 5.2 PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Program Direction . The NWS Deputy Director is for directing the activities of ail people ana offi and affected by AFOS. responsible ces involved AFOS Implementation Staff . An AFOS Implementation Staff (AIS) , estaolished in the Office of tne Director, is responsible for those functions that deal with tne overall aspects of program management and review on a day-to-day oasis. Weather Service Headquarters Operating Office s. Tne WSH operating offices (OM&0, 0/H, OTS , and NMC) are responsible for incorporating AFOS activities within each of their respective functional areas. Each has named an AFOS Office Representative (AOR) to work with the AIS at the policy, planning, and coordination levels. In addition and when appropriate, AFOS Functional Hepresentat ives (AFRs) are provided to participate in specific detailea study efforts within their areas of responsibility (e.g., communications, severe weather warning, etc.). AIS and tne AORs work together as a team to promote effective program coordination and participate in the approval of requirements and plans and changes to them. Systems Development Office . The Systems Development Office (SDO) is responsible for systems development work associated vith AFOS. This work includes the traditional development, test ana evaluation of new techniques, procedures, hardware, ana software. This office is also responsible for supporting other WSH offices with their implementation of AFOS. This suoport will be provided as required to assure an orderly transition of tne Program from a purely developmental phase to one for implementation. NWS Regional Headquarters . The NWS Regional Offices are responsible for integrating AFOS into tneir normal operations in agreement with approved plans, designs, and guidance. Each office has an AFOS Regional Representative (ARR) to particpate as the Regional Director's representative in aevelopment and review activities associated with the work of the AIS/AOR team. 5.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE System installation is keyed to an early FY 1^31 completion date for the Program. AFOS Systems, fundea by the Congress, will be installed at: 4 National Centers 68 52 WSFOs 14 RFCs 36 WSOs 65 SWSOs 1 SMCC 1 NWSTTC 6 SFSSs 1 AFGWC To accommodate this number of locations, equipment will be delivered at the rate of six units per month. This delivery rate will increase to over 8 units per month with the award of a contract for the SWSOs. The scheduling of the delivery of the AFOS equipment considers: o Office Warning Service responsibility, o The distribution of the implementation workload among Regional Headquarters, o Suitability of facilities at the time equipment is available . The schedule that evolves has the following characteristics: First, the Experimental Facility will be upgraded to enaole final system checkout before field installation begins. Then the first field implementation concentrates on the National Centers, key supporting systems, 30 WSFOs, 9 RFCs, and 30 WSOs. This is followed by installations at WSOs in WSFO areas with AFOS . Then the contiguous U.S. WSFOs and WSOs are completed and SWSO implementation starts. Finally, AFOS is installed at offices in Puerto Rico, Alaska, and Hawaii, and the SWSO implementation is completed. The funding/implementation plan for AFOS shown in Figure 5.2 ana 5.3 is summarized below in terms of the calendar year tnat equipment is delivered to field sites. Approximately a year elapses between the time that equipment is funded until it is delivered to the field office by the contractor. The current equipment delivery schedule for the WSFOs is depicted in Figure 69 5.4. This schedule may still require some adjustments as AFOS is implemented . AFOS INSTALLATION SUMMARY BY CALENDAR YEAR LOCATIONS 1977 1976 1979 1980 TOTAL National Centers 3 1 4 SMCC 1 1 NWSTTC 1 1 WSFOs 7 23 8 14 52 RFCs 3 5 2 4 14 tfSOs 5 39 60 32 136 SWSOs - 32 33 65 SFSS 12 12 6 AFGWC 1 1 70 100- Q. E o o 80- 60- 40- 20- I J Cumulative Annual * Includes Transition Quarter FIGURE 5-2.--AFOS Capital Expenditures-Percent Funded (Annual and Cummulative) 71 O CO CO u fv 0) >H ca o CO iv •H 00 fv T3 O u. CD 13 rv cc £ +J d * QJ CO o iv J-l cu Pui 1 1 S r-l a> PU fv c o ♦H 00 iv O 4J C !>. i^. CO O o O) o > •H r-l cu p u c 0) S a •H 3 cr w o a; C a; i-i as o ■u a I t M o !3 B 73 5.4 PROCUREMENT APPROACH A series of procurements are planned to accomplish tne program. They are further identified in the Procurement Summary, Table 5-1. The Experimental Facility procurement was awarded to E- Systems, Inc. A procurement for Technical Support in the AFOS Systems Development program has been awarded to Management and Technical Services Company, a subsidiary of General Electric. In addition, other small procurements will be utilized for special problem areas. The Technical Support for systems analysis design, engineering, specifications, and software design, development, and evaluation will continue tnroughout AFOS implementation. The procurement of AFOS equipment for the National Centers, WSFOs, RFCs, WSOs, SFSSs, and upgrading of the Experimental Facility has been awarded to Aeronutronic Ford Corporation. With the contract award, the equipment for the Experimental Facility is provided. Field office equipment is provided by exercising 4 contract options (normally on a Fiscal Year basis starting in FY- 76) . The final equipment delivery under this contract will take place in the fall of 1930. Another AFOS equipment procurement planned curing 1978 will cover the small WSOs. This procurement also is to be completed oy the fall of 1980. 74 TABLE 5-1 PROCUREMENT SUMMARY Type of Proc. Technical Element Proc. Source Dept. Monitoring Experimental Facility Competitive E-Systems DOC NWS Technical Competitive General DOC NWS Support Electric Corp. Non-Competitive Nat'l Bureau DOC NWS of Standards John Hopkins DOC NWS Applied Physics Laooratory Network DOC NWS Analysis Corp. Equip, for Competitive Aeronutronic DOC NWS Forecast and Ford Corp. Guidance Subsystem and Major WSOs Equip, for To be Not DOC NWS Small WSOs Determined Determined External Interface Competitive Not DOC NWS Equipment Determined 75 5.5 MANAGEMENT AND REPORTING PROCEDURES 5.5.1 Program Development Plan This document is the plan for execution of the program. Substantive changes in the project will be reflected in the PDP as the program progresses. 5.5.2 Program Coordination While all WSH offices will maintain their basic responsioilities, a special set of working relationships will be used for the development and coordination of plans, procedures, and implementation guidance. In addition to the formal NWS organizational units, the following positions and groups are associated with AFOS. AFOS Review Committee . Purpose: Top level review of AFOS plans, progress , and activities. Participants: Deputy Director, NWS (Cnairman) Associate Director, Meteorology and Oceanography Associate Director, Hydrology Associate Director, Technical Services Director, National Meteorological Center Director, Systems Development Office Chief, AFOS Implementation Staff Chief, Resources Management Staff AIS/AOR Team . The AIS/AOR team is a program coordination mechanism for assessing progress, exchanging information, and proposing solutions to problems. The team participates in the approval of AFOS System directives, plans, designs, and specifications. MIC/HIC Group . A select group of managers of operational field organizations tnat advises NWS offices on systems requirements, development, and operational techniques and procedures. Members of the group are selected by the NWS Director and Deputy Director. AIS coordinates the group's activities according to program needs. AFOS Office Representatives (AQRs) . One representative selected by the Director of eacn Headquarters Office: To represent the directors in the AIS/AOR team for development and coordination of AFOS plans, designs, and other controlled documents and to coordinate AFOS-related activities within their respective offices . 76 AFOS Functional Representatives (AFRs) . Selected by the Director of eacn Headquarters Ottice as required: To provide a focal point for working with AFOS development and implementation groups and staff. AFOS Regional Rep r esentatives (A RHs) . Selected by each Regional Director: To represent the Regional Director ana participate with the AIS/AOR team in developing and coordinating AFOS plans and designs with regional interests. 5.5.3 Contractor's Monthly and Quarterly Progress Report s The contractors submit monthly and quarterly progress reports to NWS reviewing technical and financial (for cost type contracts) status and indicating progress in achieving scheduled program milestones. 5.5.4 Pro gram Docu mentation The AIS is responsible for insuring that all aspects of the program are documented by formal reports. 5.5.5 Technical Documentary Report Technical documentary report of the program will oe prepared. These reports will contain information to give an auequate technical history of the program by describing the overall program, procedures, and techniques. 5.5.6 Technical Papers Technical papers reoorting scientific and tecnnical results of the project will oe promptly prepared and issued for dissemination to the scientific and technical communities. 77 6.0 RESOURCE IMPACTS AFOS will require substantial early resources for the procurement of equipment and services. On the other hand, upon implementation it will also generate substantial returns. A detailed analysis of the schedules of costs and savings has been accomplished and a summary of the results follows. 6.1 AFOS REQUIREMENTS The current AFOS spending plan is identified in Fig. 6-1. Under this plan, the total AFOS implementation costs will reach a maximum of $18. 2M in FY76 (includes transition quarter), and then decline to a continuing level of $6.9M ($5.9M operating costs plus $1.0M continuing operational applications development) in FY81. o Q 18.2 \. 15.9 15.9 15 J J 4.7 10 \8.0 \6.9 6.9 5 75 76* 77 * Includes Transition Quarter 78 79 80 81 82 FIGURE 6-1. --AFOS Spending Level 78 6.1.1 Capital Costs Tne capital costs for equipping the NWS with tne AFOS system are estimated to be about $45. 7M. Tnis includes tne cost of AFOS equipment at: 1) 4 - National Centers (NMC, NHC, NSSFC, NCC) 2) 5 2 -WSFOs 3) 14 - RFCs 4) 136 - WSOs 5) 65 -SWSO 6) 6 - SFSSs 7) 1 - System Monitoring ana Coordination Center (SinCC) 8) 1 - NWSTTC 9) 1 - AFGWC 6.1.2 Recurring Costs The recurring system costs at full implementation are estimated to be about $6.9M. This includes the operating costs for : 1) National Distribution Circuit (NDC) 2) State Distribution Circuits (SDC) 3) Maintenance 4) SMCC Staff 5) Continuing operational applications development 6) Environmental Data Service Costs 6.1.3 Summary of Resource Requirements Based on our time-phased implementation plan (see 5.3), funding requirements for the AFOS program are summarized in Table 6-1. FY76* FY 77 FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 15.9 12.9 10.1 6.8 1.0 2.0 4.8 6.9 7.0 5. .9 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 79 Table 6-1 PLANNED FUNDING SCHEDULE ($rl) Capital Equipment Operating Costs Operational Appli- cations Development Total 18.2 15.9 15.9 14.7 8.0 6.9 ♦Includes Transition Quarter The above funding schedule will provide resources for procurement and installation of capital equipment and for operating costs at Weather Service facilities as shown in Table 6-2. Table 6-2 FACILITY PROCUREMENT SCHEDULE FY76 * FY77 FY78 FY79 FY8Q Weather Service Fore- 22 8 16 6 cast Offices (WSFO) (52) (SFSSs included with WSFO) National Centers (1) 3 1 River Forecast Centers 5 5 12 (RFC) (14) Weather Service 20 78 57 46 Offices (WSO/SWSO) (201) System Monitoring & 1 Coordination Center (SMCC) (1) NWSTTC 1 AFGWC 1 ♦Includes Transition Quarter 80 6.2 AFOS SAVINGS As the AFOS program is implemented, we will begin to accrue savings as a result of more efficient operations. These savings fall into three major categories: 1) Job Reprogrammings and Avoidances 2) Manpower Savings 3) Communications Savings In determining the savings by fiscal years, tne following ground rules were first established: 1) The AFOS system will become fully operational 6 months after NWS acceptance of equipment at a site. 2) Personnel savings (both man-years and reprogrammed positions) will be realized at the time the "old" system is dropped from operational use. 4) Dollar value of personnel is based on the authorized grade level. 4) Numbers of personnel are based on current authorized positions . 5) Communications savings for equipment and paper at a particular site will accrue in the first year following the year the old terminal equipment is dropped. Line savings will result only when entire circuits are phased out. 6.2.1 Jobs Reprogrammed A total of 218 authorized WSFO communication/forecaster aid positions will no longer be required after AFOS is implemented. These positions will be reprogrammed to provide for maintenance and new services at the time the "old" system is dropped from operational use at a particular site. Incumbents filling tnese positions will be provided other job categories and, if required, retrained. In addition to the actual positions eliminated, we are avoiding the cost of 7ti positions required to complete the NOAA Weather Wire Service. In FY-76, we oudgeted for and received 49 of these positions to complete this service with minimum staffing. These positions were given up as part of the Administration's cost reduction program. It is now planned to request funds (communication lines and terminals) to complete this service once AFOS is available (FY-79) . 3y delaying the 81 completion to coincide witn the implementation of AFOS, the service will be provided without the need for the 16 positions because of the increased productivity realized through hFOS . In terms of meeting AFOS maintenance and SMCC requirements and providing positions for new services, these savings from job reprogrammings and avoidances are estimated to have an annual value of $4.9M after full implementation. Fig. 6-2 shows positions saved and expended by Fiscal Years. 82 300 r- 200- o 100- 296 Positions Eliminated (Actual & Planned) 218 Positions Reprogrammed (Actual) • 119 New Positions Required for Maintenance and SMCC FY76 FY77 FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 FY82 FIGURE 6-2.--AFOS Position Costs and Savings by Fiscal Years (Cumulative) 83 6.2.2 rfan-hour Savings With the implementation of AFOS, significant amounts of forecaster time will become available for otner activities since the forecaster will be freed of many of the routine ana mundane tasks associated with our present "paper oriented system." While it's not likely that these man-hour savings will result in reducing the total number of field forecasters, tne value of tnis savings is real in the sense that this professional time will become available to expand the WSFO or RFC service programs and improve the existing programs. Although quantification of these savings is difficult, background studies indicate that a 25% savings in forecaster time is realistic. For the fully implemented system, this equates to an annual savings of 192 man- years with a dollar value of approximately 35.3M. 6.2.3 Communications Savings Savings accrued by the elimination of "old" communications facilities will become available according to the following rules: 1) RAWARC - terminal equipment and paper savings will result at the time AFOS is fully operational (old terminal equipment dropped) at a particular site. Line savings will result when the entire RAWARC function is operational on AFOS. 2) Service A, C,and - our only savings are from certain "extra" equipment which we lease. Tnese savings will result when AFOS is fully operational at a particular site. 3) Circuit 7072 - equipment and paper savings will be realized when AFOS is fully operational (ola system dropped) at a particular site. Line charges will be saved when all sites on the circuit are converted to AFOS. 4) NOAA Weather Wire (NWWS) Overlay Circuits - equipment and paper savings will result when AFOS is fully operational (old system dropped) at a particular site. Line charge savings will result when all WSFOs on overlay circuit are converted to AFOS. 5) NOAA Weather Wire - savings will result only from equipment and paper at time AFOS is fully operational (old terminal equipment dropped) at a particular site. Lines will be retained for outside users. 84 6) NAFAX - savings will result from equipment, paper, ana maintenance when AFOS is fully operational (ola terminal equipment dropped) at a particular site. Circuit will be maintained for outside users. 7) FOFAX - same as NAFAX. 8) NAMFAX - same as NAFAX. The annual savings resulting from modernization of communications are estimated to be $3.0M witn a fully implemented AFOS system. A graphical representation of the schedules of costs and savings is given in Figure 6-3. 85 CM > >- o 00 oo CO CO o CO CM CM CN CO CM CM © CO CO > oo Li- •H > rt CO T3 CS CO > CO LL 4J CO o a CO > s 1 LL 1 • CO o 00 s fa LO LO LO O CM sje||OQ jo suoi||!|/\| sjBjioa jo suoi||!IAI s6uiAe$ pue 6u;pudds SOdV 86 7.0 OPERATIONAL AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS 7.1 IMPLEMENTATION CONCEPT AND EVOLUTION The introduction of a comprehensive new system into an established continuous operation presents particular challenges — in transitioning both the personnel and the facilities. For this reason, an "ease-in" approach is planned. The timing of the initial installation of AFOS equipment will be meshed with major facilities renovation or relocation plans. Facility planning is underway and the accommodation of AFOS equipment is a factor in the design activity for all future facilities. Equipment is scheauled for delivery to field facilities based on NWS established priorities. The equipment will be thoroughly checked out before being integrated into NWS operations. Operator training and provision for maintenance will precede operational use of the equipment. An overall schedule for the relative phasing of AFOS project activities is proviaed in Figure 7-1. ID W QJ •H ■U •H > •H ■U o < ■u o tu •f-1 o u cu c o CO CO + 1- AFOS ns Program Complete -<- 1 VI 4 2 re a O c o 5 to CO *-> + 3 1- O J* o 4 ^ 4 o "O CA > iZ c o JC c o H s s CO CO ** fl + + 1- 1- «— > h- 1 1 8*- CO re • o — <*^ <~ c o 2 +- c *" c o re »S "ft 1 +■• E« 3 ♦* O r co|^ °"c « - c c c o 3 o 3 o re <-> re J* re jc CO 75 O re i_ re a u a. — 1- # c 'E 're u .2 E 2 c o '^ re 8 M > CO o re 1- JC 3 re a '5 a £< (A > i ■o re a 1- < U. LU o3 to o O O UJ re re c re re "O +-> C fi c u .9-< & c UJ to C c *. « Q- c a a- m D o) o | E 8 T3 i ■§■< £ ♦= '♦: ^4-4 > c < o SI <4-< £ o <* 4 4 r I £ - !? ■S E O O •> as to o i-H -H •H ^ fn O < * « .H E- S 2 «> O X o ^ to u O 3 P o •H o 5-i X O aj P Pn < a. as E-. U) u-i oo s 2 • o W O <-H 6- ZioS > .-H H I I I I I I I I 1 1*11 I I I I I I I I * 111* I I I I * I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II * I I I II I I I I * II I I I I II III II * I I I I 1 I I I I I I I « I I I I Z22ZZZ2ZZZZZZZ2ZZZZZZZZZZ«01fflMB«)»)ini»»101UlMI/)01010)0)01 CO CO rfi U) t/) l/J i o c cr 0^ i i r- r~ V£> *& i v£>vor s -r-cccocr>0" o •H •U CO •U -H C tJ CO ffl -H 4J a J? t-i c > fl 0) /-> o a uxi'H •H •H > « C I I • I M 96 'MirUhVI « HiNnn tT -3- -T TT ^- m m m «x> cd m O U, r- m ui a x m in u r- m \o (a* x X O CO UJ cr rr X cr in cc m CD O cc l^^DI [L < OM>» y£> tii Qj r- m r- u u-i T*DCO L. ^t m o co ;i. < T m r**. < m m s D a- en u < SS2 i-w ' 8 CO 3 2 cc 3 O r~ r~ < < I -WWWW oooooocooo I r-t *-H O O CT\ I- f 97 7.2.2 Satellite Picture Distribution Geostationary satellites such as the Applications Technology Satellite (ATS) and the GOES satellite observe and provide pictures (Figure 7-8) of the weather at frequent intervals. These pictures are useful in short-range forecasting and warning services when the forecasters get the high quality picture soon after they are taken. WSFOs are being equipped with special photo recorders to receive and display pictures from the GOES system in near real time. Development work is underway that, if successful, will permit the forecaster to display on AFOS particular portions of these pictures and correlate them with other charts, radar data, etc. 7.2.3 Upper Air Minicomputers Upper air observations are taken by sending aloft a balloon- borne instrument called a "radiosonde" with temperature, pressure, and humidity sensors aboard. The radiosonde telemeters these parameters back to the ground station as it ascends into the atmosphere. Winds-aloft data are obtained by electronically determining the balloon's position. These observations are the basis for the numerical weather prediction programs as well as other operational programs of the NWS. In recent years, the NWS began using time-share computer services to aid the observer in reducing the upper air data and thus reduce manual errors. More recently, minicomputers have been procured and are installed at our upper air stations. These computers will feed the upper air data directly into the AFOS system. In addition, these computers will be used to collect data from automated sensors for entry into AFOS. 7.2.4 Remote Automatic Meteorological Observing System (RAMOS) RAMOS (Figure 7-9) is the NWS surface observing station of the future. It's a modular system designed to automatically sense meteorological elements and transmit the raw data to a central terminal. RAMOS is designed to operate from a self contained power source and use a variety of methods to transmit its data to the central station. Being of modular design, RAMOS will be able to automatically sense any or all of the following elements, depending on the data required from the site: temperature, dewpoint, wind direction, wind speed, wind gusts, pressure, precipitation accumulation, and precipitation occurrence. Additional modules are being developed that will provide other elements such as clouds over station, index of visibility, etc. Present plans call for upper air minicomputers to collect the aata from the RAMOS sites, reformat the data as necessary, and then eitner store the data for the arcnives, or 98 FIGURE 7-8. --Satellite Picture Distribution Photograph from ATS 3 (Eastern U.S.) for 2126 GMT on April 3, 1974. 99 transmit it on AF03 communications circuits. The flexibility of the RAMOS will enable the NWS to not only maintain the existing network of reporting stations in the face of continuing retrenchments , but also to obtain data from hitherto inaccessible locations . LOO FIGURE 7-9. --Remote Automatic Meteorological Observing System (RAMOS) 101 7.2.5 Integration of Data Acquisition Activities Figure 7-10 illustrates the manner in which the radar, upper air, and surface automated systems are related in the AFOS system. WSR-57 WSFO ■(MAN)' RADAP i ) 1 ' •> RADIT U/A MINI ■(MAN)- WBRT GMD AUTO. SFC. OBS. • RAINGAUGES • CO-OP OBS. (TOUCHTONE PAD) • RAMOS FIELD STATIONS DIAL-IN FIGURE 7-10. --Interrelationships of Automated Data Acquisition Systems APPENDIX I EXPERIMENTAL FACILITY The AFOS Experimental Facility was installed at NWS Headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland during the summer of 1974. It provides a test bed for experimentation, evaluation and design verification. It also serves as the vehicle for introduction of new technologies, operational concepts, and forecast applications into the AFOS environment. There are two elements to the Experimental Facility, tne AFOS equipment and the environment in which the equipment functions. In addition to basic aesthetic aspects of the physical plant, there are temperature/humidity control, indirect lighting, conductive carpeting, and raised computer type flooring. The initial equipment consisted of two WSFO type systems, Figures Al-1 and 2, and a WSO system with appropriate peripherals for software development, i.e., line printer, card readers, and paper tape punch/readers. This prototype equipment will be replaced January 1977 with the first two systems fabricated on the field production line. The new equipment will consist of: o A WSFO Communications Computer Module with 256 K of memory and four Display Consoles. o A WSO Communications Computer Module with 128 K of memory and two Display Consoles. o Synchronous and asynchronous communication channels o Interprocessor Connectors o Disk Storage o Hard Copy Capability Display consoles are configured with one alphanumeric CRT alone or in combination with as many as three graphic displays. 103 o w a o o u 0) •u CO c?J o cu o fa a CD a w i-i < fa 104 o co fl o u § 4-) CO F» CO cti ■u fl s •H o & w CO g CM I fe 105 They are the principal forecaster work stations. As such, they provide the forecaster direct access to stored data and products, message composition capability, and warning alarm indication. The basic WSFO communications and data handling software package is the core of the system. Among tne functions it performs are: o Control of all equipment interfaces witn the minicomputer . o NDC and SDC communications. o Internal scheduling of the minicomputer processing unit . o Priority interrupt servicing. o Mass storage file maintenance (data insertion, purging, and archiving). Our inventory of hardware and software modules is sufficient to satisfy system experimentation requirements. Virtually any field WSFO, WSO, RFC or RDO environment, and some limited combinations thereof, can be effectively simulated in the Experimental Facility. Furthermore, because of the basic modularity of the system, reconfiguration of the facility in response to changing experimental requirements can be readily accomplished . The Experimental Facility will continue to function as a developmental entity beyond the installation of the operational AFOS system. Thus, it will permit the NWS to take advantage of the essentially continuous flow of technological advances in the fields of meteorology, basic engineering, automatic data processing, display and communications. APPENDIX 2 EXPERIMENTS AND TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT General AFOS will have a significant effect on tne methods by which we collect data and the forecaster conducts the forecast and service program. The requirements for products will likely change. Ultimately, the forms and qualities of the forecasts and services themselves will be affected. The Experimental Facility will be the primary place in which new AFOS techniques will be developed and evaluated for field use. Equipment will be added as necessary to accommodate techniques determined to be essential to AFOS. Forecast techniques will be incorporated into the overall experimental program and evaluated. A capability exists within the Facility to develop and test applications software. This can be done independent of operational system software. Integration into the operational software package will be done later. The technical program will evolve by enhancing the initial capabilities as well as by introducing new ones. Tnese capabilities run the gamut from data acquisition, to forecasting and dissemination. As the system is introduced into the field, forecasters undoubtedly will suggest new ways of using AFOS. New equipment development (particularly for acquisition and dissemination functions) will require integration with the operational system in terms of both hardware and software. In parallel, our understanding of mesoscale processes is advancing and AFOS will provide the capability to accelerate this as advancement. Given a system with the scope of AFOS, these changes, and more, are to be expected. While some will be evolutionary, others will be revolutionary. 107 EXPERIMENTATION The juxtaposition of new and old techniques will force a chain of interactions leading to change at all levels of our service. The role of the experimentation program is to provide a structure whereby these interactions can be examined and changes documented for application to field programs. Purpose The central purpose of the AFOS experimentation program is to make certain tnat AFOS will do the job it has been mandated (ana funded) to do prior to being implemented in the field. Scooe To accomplisn that purpose, the experimentation program must span the range from functional evaluation of indiviaual equipment and computer operating system modules, through design verification of all proposea operational configurations, to implementation of all NWS national center and field office facilities (Figure A2-1) . At one end of the spectrum of experimental activities lies the basic technical task of evaluating all hardware ana software elements to be acquired or developed before the first field implementation. At the other end lies the actual operational implementation of AFOS. In between lie a myriad of tasks. Experimentation Process The experimentation program outlined in Figure A2-1 is viewed as a staging process which treats the following elements in a sequence . 1. AFOS Unit, Subsystem, and System Functions (hardware/software) — see Table A2-1 for examples. 2. Operations and Service Functions (software/techniques) - see Table A2-2. 3. Development of manuals and procedures. 4. 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This phase of the experimentation has significant impact not only on the design of field offices, out also on the scheduling and flow of work required for efficient operation and the timely provision of services (i.e., forecasts, watches, warnings, briefings, etc.). The final phase of experimentation prior to the first field implementation of AFOS (Table A2-4) entails the operational simulation of field offices as nodes on the NDC (WSFO's) and SDC (WSO's) having full data acquisition (WSMO) and product (NMC) support. Here the experimentation will be strongly oriented toward the simulation of those specific field offices to oe automated in the early stages of implementation of AFOS. In addition, it is anticipated that some effort will be directed toward utilizing computer modeling techniques to explore AFOS multi-station configurations which cannot be handled witn the limited experimental facilities available. The exact direction such modeling would take will depend on what is determined Dy the more direct experimental simulations. The functions of the AFOS experimentation process are portrayed in a building block manner in Figure A2-2. This diagram points out the important fact that once an element of the AFOS experimentation process has been initiated, it will remain active for the duration of the AFOS program. There will be a continual process of re-evaluating the various AFOS elements and their interrelationships to ensure the development of an optimal AFOS system for implementation. 113 ■o ^ oo-o co co = 2 E - CO o o CO o co o u_ Z LU =J D D LU I a CO i- < i- z LU cc LU a. X co r c o *-> CO CO k- 3 a E O CO \ CO r c o o ■M CO CO w 3 CD a E O CO CO CO » * I S ^ c t; w ,9 = fi 2 co o a o § ccom D O X > LU X co C o oj "*- -coo *'£ § LL O U. c o a> ■£ -o o o «£§ LL. O LL C o oj '+- LU O LU E CT ^ o> O" o oiSo -> ,2 oj <0 U O > ■ L ^ Qcqu.1 a. a. < s s o > 2 co O CO LU co O Slu OJ u co o > C u CO CO 1_ o CD a c CO c 3 O LU CO oj C O «/> ill O CO LU IWSO Video e Scree Power CO CO c g CO LU (_ OB -_ W . r DC k n C ^ CO > P „. « co ^. CC C (j j5 jS < «- O — co co ^ O CO CO -1 CO O lu Q Q (J * TJ c C CO E u 'E ■4-" CO V u c 3 _> CO LU CO ■a £ c c .2 03 £ * - ♦* S H c £§ DCO LU co c c .2 03 £ « s £§ DCOLU co s £■£ OJ o ~ c CO DCOLU 3 XJ 0) XI o CO C o •H a a j-i cu a x w CO s I • CM CM < 8 H co Sli 114 TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT An important interface between the AFOS system and the National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster lies witnin the area of meteorological forecast applications. Replacing facsimile and teletypewriter machines with minicomputers and TV-type displays at NWS forecast offices has much appeal. Certainly the guidance material now transmitted from the National Meteorological Center (Ni4C) can be handled in a quicker and more efficient manner. The present station displays will be improved under AFOS. Also, the forecast and warning dissemination will be streamlined and made more efficient. The benefits are numerous. But the AFOS system also allows for new meteorological applications and different packaging of guidance material. The purpose of the techniques development is to use modern technology (i.e., minicomputers) to generate products and/or services that were not possible previously. The scope of this program includes specialized services such as aviation weather and puolic forecasting. The objectives initially are to: 1. Automatically monitor and update forecasts as needed. 2. Automatically supply guidance in the same form as the final product. 3. Introduce different guidance material for use by the forecasters. Each effort must meet one or more of the oojectives listed. Four tasks are now in progress. The first of these concerns the automatic monitoring and updating of aviation terminal forecasts. Specifically, the AFOS system minicomputer will be programmed to compare selected surface observation with specific current terminal forecast and determine if a problem or a potential problem exists. If so, a message will be automatically generated which will alert the forecaster to the situation ana provide him with an objective forecast of ceiling and visibility. 11 The second effort concerns the generation of computer-worded public forecasts. The initial forecast, along with a guidance matrix, will be generated centrally and transmitted via the National Distribution Circuit to the forecast office. The forecaster can accept the forecast as is, make minor changes through text editing the message, or make major changes. Updating to include major revisions requires that the forecast be regenerated, this time on the local AFOS minicomputer. The third task deals with automatically updating objective probability of precipitation guidance forecasts with later and different data, namely manually digitized radar (MDR) reports. The final effort also makes use of MDR aata, but this time to help tne flash flood forecasters in NWS. Relationships are being derived between MDR digits and precipitation, wnen these relationships are applied to real-time situations, it will be possible to alert the forecaster as to the probability of different amounts of precipitation over a given period and also to inform him of the maximum amount likely in the period. Each task starts as a proposal and follows the flow illustrated in Fig. A2-3. The aviation monitoring ana updating task is now in step 4 undergoing evaluation at the experimental Facility site. Tne computer worded public forecast task is in step 3 where it is being coded for the AF03 minicomputer system and oeing checked out. The probability of precipitation updating scheme is in step 2 where development is being completed. Flasn flood alerting work is in step 1 where the proposal nas been accepted and work will begin soon. Additional proposals will be planned, developed, tested and implemented in tne future according to tne resources available. 116 LU 1- co LU D 1- u. MODIFY APPROACH 1 INTEGRATE INTO AFOS SYSTEM SOFTWARE 8 t < A Q MAN JRES X o > < 2 Q Cu LU a. o 5SF 0(-0 Oct O co O DC UJ EC s< Q. h- Q. ♦ St H O a. _1 LU LU O >z LU O Q O •u C- 0) s cu o cu p CO CU 3 cr •H e J3 O cu o c O o o c o •H 4-1 e o u to M 4-J CO 3 CO I CN O H 117 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AFAWS Air Force Air weather Service AFGWC Air Force Global Weather Central AFOS Automation of Field Operations ana Services AFR AFOS Functional Representative AHOS Automatic Hydrologic Observing System AIS AFOS Implementation Staff AOR AFOS Office Representative ARR AFOS Regional Representative ATS Applications Technology Satellite CATV Cable Television CIL Category Inventory List CPU Central Processing Unit. CRT Cathode Ray Tube D/RADEX Digitized Radar Experiment DOC Department of Commerce DOD Department of Defense FAA Federal Aviation Administration FOFAX Forecast Office Facsimile GMT Greenwich meridian Time GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GPO Government Printing Office GSA General Services Administration KCRT Keyboard, Cathode Ray Tube MDR Manually Digitized Raaar MIC/HIC Meteorologist-in-Charge/riydrologist-in-Charge NACOA National Advisory Committee on Oceans ana Atmosphere 8AFAX National Facsimile Network NCC National Climatic Center NDC National Distribution Circuit NHC National Hurricane Center NwC National Meteorological Center NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Aaministration NSSFC National Severe Storms Forecast Center NWS National Weather Service NWSTTC National Weather Service Technical Training Center NWWS NOAA Weather Wire Service 06C Observer/Briefer Console 118 OH Oii&O OTS PDP PIL R&D RADAP RAD IT RAMOS RAW ARC RFC SDC SDO SFSS SMCC swso TDL TV U/A VHF VIP W3RT WSFO WSMO wso WSR Office of Hydrology Office of Meteorology and Oceanography Office of Technical Services Program Development Plan Product Inventory List Research and Development Radar Data Processor System Radar Derived Image Transmitter Remote Automatic Meteorological Ooservation Stations Radar Reports and Warning Cooraination System River Forecast Center State Distribution Circuits Systems Development Office Satellite Field Service Station System Monitoring and Coordination Center Small Weather Service Office Techniques Development Laboratory Television Upper Air Very High Frequency Video Integrators and Processors Weather Bureau Radio Theodolite Weather Service Forecast Office Weather Service Meteorological Observatory Weather Service Office Weather Surveillance Radar 119 ALB Albany, NY WSFO ABQ Al bur que r que , NM WSFO ANC Anchorage, AX WSFO ATL Atlanta, GA WSFO and RFC BHM Birmingham, AL WSFO BIS Bismark, ND WSFO BOI Boise, ID WSFO BOS Boston, MA WSFO BUF Buffalo, NY WSFO CRW Cnarleston, WV WSFO CYS Cheyenne, WY WSFO CHI Chicago, IL WSFO CVG Cincinnati, OH RFC CLE Cleveland, OH WSFO CAE Columbia, SC WSFO DEN Denver, CO WSFO DSM Des Moines, IA WSFO DTW Detroit, MI WSFO FAI Fairbanks, AK WSFO FTW Fort Worth, TX WSFO and RFC GTF Great Falls, MT WSFO HAR Harrisburg, PA WSO/RFC HFDC Hartford, CT RFC PHNL Honolulu, HI WSFO IND Indianapolis, IN WSFO JAN Jackson, MS . WSFO JUN Juneau, AK WSFO LIT Little Rock, AR WSFO LAX Los Angeles, CA WSFO SDF Louisville, KY WSFO LB3 Lubbock, TX WSFO MEM Memphis, TN WSFO MIA Miami, FL WSFO MKE Milwaukee, WI WSFO MSP Minneapolis, MN WSFO MSY New Orleans, LA WSFO NYC New York City, NY WSFO OKC Oklahoma City, OK WSFO OMA Omaha, NB WSFO PHL Philadelphia, PA WSFO PHX Phoenix, AZ WSFO PIT Pittsburgh, PA WSFO PWM Portland, ME WSFO PDX Portland, OR WSFO and RFC RDU Raleigh, NC WSFO RNO Reno, NV WSFO SAC Sacramento, CA WSO/RFC STL St. Louis, MO WSFO SLC Salt Lake City, UT WSFO and RFC SAT San Antonio, TX WSFO 120 SFO San Francisco, CA MJSJ San Juan, PR SEA Seattle, WA FSO Sioux Falls, SD SLI Slidell, LA TOP Topeka, KS TUL Tulsa, OK W3C Washington, DC WSFO WSFO WSFO WSFO RFC WSFO RFC WSFO $.U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICEi 1976-210-801/390 A0DD07 .qV-UT/O/v ^6-^ NOAA--S/T 76-2451