csy, 5 : f- >y 
 
 
 A UNITED STATES 
 DEPARTMENT OF 
 COMMERCE 
 PUBLICATION 
 
 ► 
 
 *<°'/<V 
 
 ^res of ■ 
 
 FOREIGN AFFILIATE 
 FINANCIAL SURVEY 
 
 1966-1969 
 
 U.S. 
 
 DEPARTMENT 
 
 OF 
 
 COMMERCE 
 
 Office of 
 
 Foreign Direct 
 
 Investments 
 
 Statistical Data Collected by 
 The Office of Foreign Direct Investments 
 
 and Interpretive Analysis 
 
 JULY 1971 
 
Digitized by the Internet Archive 
 
 in 2012 with funding from 
 
 LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation 
 
 http://www.archive.org/details/foreignaffiliateOOberl 
 
Foreign Affiliate Financial Survey, 1966-1969 
 By Philip D. Berlins- 
 Senior Economic Advisor 
 Office of Foreign Direct Investments 
 
 Summary 
 
 This study is based on an analysis of 1966-69 balance sheet data of 
 the majority- owned affiliates of I4.69 U. S. direct investors filing Form 
 FHE-105 with the Office of Foreign Direct Investment in 1969 and 1970. The 
 statistics supersede those published by OFDI on July 2, 1970,-"-:;- and 
 incorporate the 1967-68 data on which that survey was based. As in the 
 July 2 survey, the present sample of I469 firms includes all direct investors 
 whose 1969 direct investment quotas under the Foreign Direct Investment 
 Program were over $1 million, or who made long-term foreign borrowings of at 
 least $5 million between the beginning of 1965 and the end of 1968. The 
 sample for the four years covered is somewhat smaller than that covered in 
 the July 2 survey. 
 
 The study was primarily designed to determine to what extent affiliate 
 borrowing from foreigners in 1968 and 1969 exceeded what would have occurred 
 in the absence of the Foreign Direct Investment Program. The analysis also 
 examines changing relationships in sources and uses of affiliate funds 
 during the period studied, and attempts to establish which of the observed 
 changes in these relationships may have been attributable to the Foreign 
 Direct Investment Program. Finally, the study seeks to determine how the 
 Program may have influenced affiliate asset formation, if at all, by 
 relating changes in affiliate assets to other data — mainly revenue data — 
 provided by direct investors in the FDI-105 reports. 
 
 The study must be regarded as preliminary because, with one exception, 
 it is based only on data from FDI-105 reports. It thus does not take into 
 account U. S. and foreign interest rates, affiliate or parent profits, or 
 domestic data, such as sales of the parent firm, which might influence the 
 growth and financing of foreign investments. The study does not establish 
 
 Guy V. G. Stevens of the Division of Research and Statistics of the 
 Federal Reserve Board provided considerable assistance in the 
 development of this study and made important suggestions pertaining 
 to the form of the data base. Robert Burke of OFDI did the computer 
 programming. Conclusions and any errors remain the responsibility of 
 the author alone. 
 
 Foreign Affiliate Financial Survey, 1967-1968 , U. S. Department of 
 Commerce, Office of Foreign Direct Investments, July 2, 1970. 
 
fully satisfactory explanations for foreign investment behavior, particularly 
 for investments in fixed assets. Moreover, there are indications that the 
 behavior of direct investors surveyed may depend on the size of parent firms ' 
 total foreign assets. We have not, however, been able to find a consistent 
 or clear-cut relationship between size and financial behavior, and since the 
 conclusions are strongly influenced by the behavior of the largest direct 
 investors in the survey, they should be used with care. 
 
 The results of the study suggest that in 1968 and 1969, because of 
 direct or indirect "pressure" from the Program, direct investors may have 
 expanded the current assets of their foreign affiliates somewhat more than 
 they otherwise would have, at the same time reducing the rate of affiliate 
 fixed asset formation. Although the statistical results are somewhat unclear, 
 it is possible that the Program encouraged foreign affiliates to borrow 
 directly from foreigners and hold the proceeds as cash balances (current 
 assets) rather than commit them to fixed asset formation. 
 
 Analysis of affiliate financing patterns showed that the Program may 
 have induced affiliates to borrow about $1.1± billion more in 1968-1969 from 
 foreign sources than they otherwise would have (assuming that Program-induced 
 increases in current assets and decreases in fixed assets were roughly equal). 
 Practically all of this "excess" borrowing arose from a stretch-out of 
 affiliate payables to third parties (non-interest-bearing liabilities). 
 
 I. Introduction 
 
 Although the Program controls encourage direct investors to borrow abroad 
 to finance their direct investment activities, restrictions do not 
 apply to increases in affiliate assets financed by direct borrowing by the 
 foreign affiliates themselves . 
 
 Strictly speaking, there is no reason for direct investors to have 
 their foreign affiliates incur any "extraordinary" debt if the parents can 
 borrow more easily and at more favorable rates in the same foreign capital 
 markets. Nevertheless, in some circumstances the parent may prefer to see 
 affiliate borrowing finance a larger than customary share of increases in 
 affiliate assets. For example, the affiliate might be able to borrow 
 incremental funds at more favorable rates than its parent ; the most obvious 
 such case would be through a stretch-out in affiliate payables, essentially 
 interest-free funds. In addition, although the Program places certain 
 requirements on foreign borrowing by parent firms if such borrowing is to 
 qualify under the Program, these do not apply to foreign affiliate borrowing, 
 which may give seme stimulus to borrowing by affiliates. 
 
The present study seeks primarily to establish the extent to which 
 foreign affiliate borrowing may have been induced by the Program. It attempts , 
 by way of an econometric "model," to describe the relationship between changes 
 in affiliate assets (uses of funds) and changes in the types of financing 
 from parents or other (foreign) sources of funds which existed before the 
 inception of the mandatory Program to determine if, and how, the Program 
 influenced these relationships during its first two years, 1968 and 1969. 
 
 Thus the study examines several rather substantial financial flows which 
 occurred at the time of the inception of the Program in light of the "model" 
 to see if these flows can be attributed to factors other than the direct 
 investment program. While the use of a model might seem unnecessarily 
 sophisticated in a study limiting itself to the FDI-105 data, this approach 
 was taken to ensure that any unusual changes in real asset accumulation or 
 financial flows which might in fact be due to unrelated circumstances — such 
 as sharp changes in affiliate revenues coinciding with the inception of the 
 mandatory Program — were not attributed to the Program itself. 
 
 The study also seeks to measure the extent to which the Program itself 
 was responsible for reducing or otherwise altering the growth of affiliate 
 assets, however financed. Unfortunately, this portion of the analysis is 
 both less extensive and less satisfactory than that identifying financial 
 behavior, and further analysis using other data sources remains to be done. 
 
 The sample of firms in the present survey was reduced somewhat from 
 that in the earlier survey. Only firms included in the earlier survey were 
 asked to file 1966 and 1969 data in the 1970 FDI-105 report. Somewhat fewer 
 firms were covered (I4.69 as compared with 515"""" in the July, 1970 survey), 
 primarily because they did not meet the reporting requirement or had merged, 
 or because the firm ceased to be a direct investor. The present sample covers 
 the same 1+69 firms for the four-year perird and represents 1968 foreign affiliate 
 assets of $61+. billion (Table la) as compared with $65.1 billion in last 
 year's survey. Canadian affiliates covered had 1968 assets of $19.5 billion 
 as compared with $19.9 billion in last year's sample. 
 
 Direct investors ' share of total foreign affiliate assets in 1969 
 (including Canada) amounted to $53*9 billion (Table la), which compares with 
 the figure of $70.8 billion published by the Office of Business Economics.-x-x- 
 
 # Erroneously reported as 561 in that survey. 
 -x-x- Survey of Current Business, Vol. 50, No. 10, Oct. 1970. 
 
The Office of Business Economics figure is an expansion to estimated universe 
 size from their sample although, since the Office of Business Economics did 
 not expand its data on sources and uses of funds, OFDI's statistics on sources 
 and uses of funds are closer to those published by OBE (and in fact somewhat 
 larger). In addition, supposedly comparable OFDI and OBE data may also differ 
 because of differences in definitions and in the types of reporters covered 
 by the sample (OBE's I^O-firm sample includes only mining and smelting, 
 petroleum, and manufacturing). Finally, unlike the OFDI data, the OBE data 
 do not include flows resulting from acquisitions, and branch earnings left 
 abroad are treated as retained earnings, contrary to their treatment in 
 balance of payments accounts, while OFDI treats them as parent funds, which is 
 consistent with balance of payments treatment. 
 
 II. Uses of Funds and Asset Structures of Affiliates 
 
 Current Assets 
 
 From a value roughly equal to net fixed assets in 1966 (see Table la) 
 current assets in the scheduled areas-* increased to a point where, in 1969, 
 they were l£ percent greater than net fixed assets e During this period the 
 total Increase in current assets (i.e., inventories, receivables and cash 
 balances) amounted to $12.3 billion, a growth rate of Sh percent. $9-8 billion 
 of this increase occurred between 1967 (the last year before the imposition 
 of the Program) and 1969; the growth rate in those years was 38 percent. This 
 compared with a 23 percent growth rate in net fixed assets between 1967 and 
 1969. This growth of current assets relative to the slower growth of net 
 fixed assets seems rather peculiar, since current assets financed by parent 
 funds are no less subject to Program restrictions than fixed assets. It is 
 possible that affiliates may have borrowed heavily from foreign lenders after the 
 inception of the Program with the intention of using the funds for fixed 
 investments at a later date. Such funds, held as cash balances, would be 
 much like the available proceeds resulting from parent borrowings not immediately 
 used for direct investment purposes. 
 
 In this context, however, it is important to note that during the period 
 of rapid growth in current assets there was also substantial growth in affiliate 
 revenues — while current assets grew 38 percent from 1967 to 1969, affiliate 
 revenues rose 33 percent. In general, it should not be surprising to find a 
 fairly close relationship between current assets and revenues; as revenues 
 rise, inventories and receivables increase as well. 
 
 For purposes of regulation under the Program, the world is divided into 
 three "scheduled areas" which are subject to controls of varying degrees 
 of stringency. The scheduled areas include all countries of the world 
 except Canada. 
 
The relationship between current assets and revenues was tested, for a 
 cross-section of FDI-lOf? reporters in an equation relating changes in current 
 assets to (a) changes in current revenues; (b) the previous year's revenues; 
 and (c) the previous year's current assets. 1/-"- The coefficients of the 
 equation for 1967 were used to project what current assets would have been in 
 1968 and 1969 if the mandatory Program 'had not been in existence. It was found 
 that the actual increase in current assets exceeded the predicted increases 
 by about $280 million in 1968 and about $980 million in 1969. The $1.3 billion 
 "excess" increase in current assets represents 13 percent of the total $9.8 
 billion actual increase in 1968 and 1969. Some of the excess increase in 
 current assets may have been induced by the mandatory Program. 
 
 That the Program may have been responsible for current asset formation 
 in excess of what might otherwise have taken place is in fact substantiated 
 (at least in part) by collateral results to be discussed more extensively 
 below. In this context it is relevant that to the extent that proceeds of 
 affiliates' foreign borrowing were held as cash balances (current assets) 
 after the inception of the Program, rather than being used for fixed asset 
 accumulation, the proportion of increases in current assets financed by 
 affiliate borrowings should Itself show an increase. Statistical results 
 taking account of this relationship in fact show a sharp rise in 1969 
 (although a small drop in 1968). For this reason, it appears that at least 
 some of the $980 million excess in the 1969 increase in current assets over 
 the amount predicted was attributable to the Program; it is less likely that 
 much of the 1968 growth in current assets was Program-linked. 
 
 However, there Is room for doubt that even this $980 million "excess" 
 increase in current assets was totally attributable to the Program, since 
 the equation formalizing the relationship between current asset changes and 
 revenues, although the best for the data available, was nevertheless a 
 relatively Ill-fitting one and should not be regarded as particularly 
 reliable. Moreover, predictions based upon cross -section, firm-by-firm data 
 have themselves often proved to be quite unreliable. 
 
 There was also some evidence that increases in current assets may have 
 been In the form of receivables rather than cash balances, and that the 
 growth of these receivables was financed through increases in foreign affiliate 
 payables as a part of a general overall tendency for payables (and thus 
 receivables) to be stretched out during a period of tight money. 
 
 Numbered footnotes are of a technical nature and are found in the rear of 
 the text. 
 
Finally, ranking direct investors by the size of the total increase in 
 affiliate assets relative to quotas under the Program gave little indication 
 that direct investors subject to the greatest amount of "program pressure" 
 behaved differently from those which faced no such pressure. Current assets 
 for all direct investors taken together grew 70 percent more than fixed assets 
 over 1968-69; current assets of those direct investors facing the greatest 
 amount of program pressure grew 63 percent more. Moreover, firms under 
 program pressure did not increase their reliance on foreign funds to finance 
 current assets to quite the extent that all direct investors taken together 
 did. 2/ 
 
 The Program was apparently not responsible for any measurable weakening 
 in the aggregate liquidity of foreign affiliates. Working capital (defined 
 as current assets less short-term affiliate liabilities to others than the 
 parent) rose from $6.3 billion in 1966 to $9.3 billion in 1969 • The net 
 quick ratio (working capital divided by current affiliate liabilities to 
 others) fell slightly from an average of 59.5 percent in 1966-67 to 58.6 
 percent in 1968 and 56.0 percent in 1969 . This slight deterioration in the 
 net quick ratio, however, is considerably less than that which took place in 
 the U. S. over the same period. 
 
 Fixed Assets 
 
 Net fixed assets of FDI-105 reporters grew 23 percent from 1966 to 1969^ 
 while current assets increased 38 percent. This discrepancy may in itself 
 indicate that the Program had some negative impact on fixed asset formation, 
 perhaps as direct investors slowed the rate of plant and equipment expenditures 
 in order to build up their affiliates ' cash positions because of uncertainty 
 as to how the Program would in fact evolve. 
 
 An attempt was made to relate changes in net fixed assets to other 
 variables for which data were readily available from the FDI-105 to determine 
 whether and in what way the Program may have affected these relationships. 
 In particular, various possible relationships between affiliate revenues and 
 plant and equipment expenditures were tested. 3/ 
 
 These tests, even where adjustments were made to compensate for 
 differences in the capital structure of the foreign affiliates by stratifying 
 the data according to average ratios of affiliates' invested capital to 
 revenues, were not very conclusive. Direct investors with foreign affiliates 
 having unusual capital structures were therefore separated out, and the 
 remaining 206 direct investors whose foreign affiliates had revenues ranging 
 between one and four times fixed assets were examined separately; this group 
 represented 83 percent of the fixed assets of the foreign affiliates under 
 study. 
 
It was found that these affiliates were apparently expanding net fixed 
 investments by about 16 percent per annum. When revenue growth rates 
 exceeded 12 percent per annum, net fixed investment growth rates tended to 
 exceed 16 percent, and when revenue growth rates were below 12 percent, net 
 fixed investment growth rates tended to be less than 16 percent (see Footnote 3) 
 
 This seems to give indirect support to the view that direct investors 
 may be more interested in expanding their foreign market shares than in the 
 immediate profitability of their investments. However, it should be 
 remembered that the data lump together all majority- owned affiliates for 
 each direct investor. Moreover, the analysis has not taken into account 
 foreign or domestic profit rates, domestic sales, or foreign and domestic 
 interest rates. The results should thus be regarded as no more than tentative. 
 
 The 1968 and 1969 results indicate that the 206 direct investors in 
 question reduced the rate of expansion of net fixed assets to 9 percent and 
 8 percent, respectively, from 16 percent in I967.I4/ 
 
 Using 1967 relationships between net fixed asset expansion and revenues 
 to predict 1968 and 1969 values, given the growth of affiliate revenues in 
 those years, may be misleading for the reasons mentioned. In any case, 
 actual plant and equipment expenditures for 1968 and 1969 were considerably 
 below those predicted on the basis of 1967 results. Because of the uncertainty 
 of these results, absolute magnitudes are not presented here. 
 
 However, an indirect approximation of the amount of fixed asset expansion 
 which might have taken place in 1968 and 1969 in the absence of the Program 
 can be derived by multiplying combined 1968-1969 total assets ($137 billion, 
 adjusted to $135«8 billion to allow for "excess" current asset expansion of 
 $1.3 billion) by the average 1966-67 ratio of fixed to total assets, l\h»2. 
 percent. The result, $60.0 billion, was $1.8 billion greater than the actual 
 1968-69 combined total, $58.2 billion. Before this difference is accepted 
 as anything but a tentative indication of Program impact, however, the 
 excluded variables mentioned above must be taken into account. 
 
 IH. Sources of Funds and Liability Structure of Affiliates 
 
 As previously explained, the main effect of the Program has been to 
 increase the amount of borrowing by parent companies from foreign capital 
 markets. The task of this analysis of affiliate liability structures is 
 essentially to determine the amount of affiliate borrowing which may have 
 been induced by the Program. This estimate is based on structural relation- 
 ships found to exist between uses of affiliate funds and sources of such 
 funds in 1967, the year before the Program was introduced. Taking changes 
 in the different types of foreign assets (uses of funds) in 1968 and 1969 
 as given, the 1967 structural relationships for sources and uses of 
 affiliate funds were applied to the relevant values for 1968 and 1969 uses 
 of funds to determine what the different sources of funds would have been 
 
had the pre-Program relationships continued. £/ The differences between the 
 values thus derived and those actually observed were assumed to have been 
 induced by the Program. 
 
 The Model 
 
 The model which provided the best explanation of the structural relation- 
 ships involved in the financial behavior of direct investors was a modified 
 "portfolio" model. The basic working hypothesis of this model is the assumption 
 that there is an identifiable and continuing relationship between different 
 types of real foreign asset holdings and the affiliate liabilities which 
 finance these assets. Annual flows (sources and uses) of funds are assumed 
 to be consistent with these relationships. In other words, it is assumed 
 that for a given change in a particular affiliate asset (i.e., plant and 
 equipment, current assets, etc.) there will be an associated change in a 
 particular affiliate liability (such as short- or long-term liabilities to 
 others, to the parent, etc.). 
 
 This model was chosen in the belief that direct investors tend to finance 
 specific foreign assets with funds from different sources so as to minimize 
 the direct investors' financial exposure to various events over which they 
 have no control. For example, changes in the exchange rate for a given local 
 currency will affect the value of the investment position of the direct 
 investor depending on the mix of assets and liabilities which he has 
 denominated in that currency. At the minimum, the direct investor may want 
 to hedge his short-term position by ensuring a rough parity between current 
 assets and current liabilities denominated in that currency. Depending upon 
 past experience, he may also try to hedge fixed assets as well. However, 
 costs of borrowing in a given currency, as compared with such costs in other 
 currencies, may tend to reflect the likelihood of the currency to be devalued 
 or revalued and thus remove much of the advantage of hedging. 
 
 Also, a direct investor's appraisal of the likelihood of changes in 
 foreign governments' policies on permissible dividend payout or taxation 
 policies may lead him to wish to hedge or otherwise shift the financing of 
 fixed assets, perhaps by increasing the degree of foreign borrowing relative 
 to the direct investor's equity participation ("leverage") with respect to 
 fixed assets. Direct investors may also tend to finance different assets 
 with different sources of funds depending on the likelihood of expropriation, 
 with or without remuneration, and depending on guarantees such as those from 
 the Agency for International Development. In sum, these various possibilities 
 suggest that for different foreign assets exposed to different types and 
 magnitudes of risks there will be a set of particular affiliate liabilities — 
 whether short- or long-term, to unaffiliated foreigners, to the parent, etc. — 
 each of which will minimize the parent's financial exposure for the asset or 
 assets potentially involved. 
 
The model thus suggests that direct investors may do more than simply 
 attempt to maintain an overall leverage vis-a-vis their foreign affiliates.-* 
 A test of the relatively limited leverage hypothesis for 1967 showed that 
 changes in affiliate assets in fact accounted for about 80 percent of the 
 variation in parent company contributions. It also showed that as a whole, 
 parent funds tended to finance about 53 percent of the increase in total 
 affiliate assets. 6/ However, the more extended "portfolio" model breaking 
 down total assets into their individual components had still more power in 
 explaining variations in sources of funds, and explained about 86 percent of 
 the variation in parent company contributions (see Regression Table 2). 
 
 For the portfolio model in question, relationships were tested between 
 
 (1) changes in parent capital contributions (including retained earnings) or 
 
 (2) changes in liabilities to others (foreigners) and changes in total 
 affiliate assets taken as given (i.e., as exogenous independent variables) 
 broken down into components: (l) net plant and equipment expenditures; (2) 
 changes in current assets; (3) changes in other assets; and (I4) changes in 
 long-term receivables. The model was designed in terms of net, rather than 
 gross changes in capital assets so that depreciation flows were not included 
 as a source of funds. 7/ 
 
 In a somewhat more sophisticated variant of the model actually used for 
 projections, the year-end values of the individual asset components for the 
 previous year were included in the relationship. This was done with the 
 expectation that the stock of fixed capital assets of the previous year could 
 influence the type of financing sought for the following year as well as new 
 plant and equipment expenditures. The rationale was that past year-end values 
 might have some influence on new flows because of lags in the process by 
 which these new flows adjusted themselves to asset changes in the same year. 
 However, although the equations were well-fitting, the results do not support 
 this theoretical interpretation of the model. 8/ 
 
 The Results- x-x- 
 
 To the extent that the Program might affect in some way the relationships 
 between sources and uses of affiliate funds, it Is not Immediately apparent 
 why that effect should bear more heavily on the financing of funds for changes 
 in one type of asset as opposed to another. If direct investors should decide 
 
 In this context a leveraging of foreign affiliate assets would imply that 
 for every dollar of change in total affiliate assets (no matter what the 
 change in individual asset components) the parent's contribution would be 
 roughly constant as a percentage of that amount. 
 
 Statistical results are shown in Regression Tables 1 and 2. 
 
10 
 
 to have their affiliates borrow rather than doing so themselves, this in 
 itself should not necessarily affect the source of financing of individual 
 components. Rather, the relationship between changes in all types of asset 
 and parent funds should shift in consistent fashion. In other words, if the 
 pre-Program (1967) relationship between sources and uses were such that half 
 of each dollar of change in both fixed and current assets were financed by 
 parent company funds, then it might be expected that the Program might cause 
 a reduction in this relationship which would roughly parallel the rise in that 
 between the changes in asset components and affiliate borrowings from others. 
 
 However, the results indicate that this is not generally the case. The 
 possibility has been noted above that affiliates may have borrowed from 
 foreign sources and held the proceeds in the form of cash balances until such 
 time as they were needed to finance plant and equipment expenditures. In 
 this case, of course, the relationship between current asset changes and 
 affiliate borrowings from others should tend to increase relative to that 
 for fixed asset changes. 
 
 In 1967, all FDI-105 reporters were found to finance Ij.1 percent of their 
 affiliates ' net new plant and equipment expenditures with parent funds and 
 5l percent of the increases in current affiliate assets from the same source 
 (see Regression Table 2, ZyV-jo^y). This provides some evidence that the 
 prevailing notion that parent funds are used mainly to finance fixed asset 
 changes while foreign sources of funds (affiliate liabilities) finance current 
 asset changes is not correct . 
 
 Variations in the individual asset components explained almost all of 
 the variations in parent capital flows, which suggests that the model relating 
 individual sources and uses Is a reasonable one. As noted above, the model 
 is improved somewhat by adding year-end values of the asset components, 
 results for which will be discussed below. 
 
 It should be emphasized here that these results have not been deflated 
 for size. Results vary quite sharply between asset size classes, a variation 
 for which no explanation has been found. The stratification carried out was 
 found to have a high degree of statistical significance. 
 
 In 1968, the first year of the Program, parent company financing for 
 new assets increased in importance, now financing 57 percent of affiliate 
 plant and equipment expenditures and 55 percent of changes in current assets, 
 small increases in the proportion over 1967. (See Regression Table 2, 
 ^"^1968*) These relationships were unchanged in 1969.9/ 
 
 Working Capital 
 
 The relationship between changes in sources of funds and working capital 
 was also tested. Working capital was defined as current assets less all 
 short-term (current) affiliate liabilities to others than the parent. A test 
 
11 
 
 of this relationship showed, with a high degree of statistical significance , 
 that in 1967 parent funds financed 80 percent of changes in affiliate working 
 capital and 72 percent of plant and equipment expenditures. 10/ In 1968 
 parent funds financed 88 percent of changes in working capital, with the 
 proportion rising to 91 percent in 1969. 
 
 Payables 
 
 A surprising result of the statistical analysis showed that changes in 
 payables (more exactly, changes in non-interest-bearing liabilities) have 
 apparently been quite important in financing net plant and equipment 
 expenditures. In 1967, changes in payables were found to have been used to 
 finance ll; percent of net plant and equipment expenditures and l£ percent of 
 current asset changes (see Regression Table 1, A.L -). In 1968 payables 
 financed only 10 percent of plant and equipment expenditures and 3U percent 
 of changes in current assets. In 1969, the relationship returned to a 
 relative parity between fixed and current assets, although at a higher level, 
 with changes in payables now being used to finance 23 percent of net plant 
 and equipment expenditures and 29 percent of increases in current assets. 
 The relationship between payables and total asset changes itself doubles from 
 12 percent in 1967 to about 2£ percent in 1968 and 1969. 
 
 It Is possible that the tendency for affiliate payables to be stretched 
 out may have been part of a more general trend. Thus affiliates may have been 
 obliged to grant more favorable terms on their receivables just as they were 
 apparently able to improve the terms of their payables . Increases in 
 receivables will, of course, show up as current assets, and it is very possible 
 that the sharp rise in the relationship between the latter and payables between 
 1967 and 1968-69 was due to this alone, and not to the Program. To the extent 
 that this was in fact the case, any tendency to reduce payables should be 
 accompanied by a roughly equal tendency to reduce current assets as well. 
 
 Variations in the Model 
 
 Averaged data 
 
 Averaging all relevant sources and uses data for 1968-69 (on the 
 assumption that direct investors' reactions to the Program were spread out 
 over the two years following its inception) also yields interesting results. 
 This approach has greater strength in explaining variations in parent 
 contributions than the equations for either 1968 or 1969 alone. For this 
 two-year period, flows of parent company funds were found to finance 67 
 percent of net plant and equipment expenditures and only hi percent of changes 
 in current assets. The large difference between the results for the average 
 of the two years and those calculated for 1968 and 1969 separately reflects 
 the fact that the two-year average gives relatively greater weight to the 
 sharp increase in the rate of growth of current assets which took place over 
 the period. 11/ 
 
12 
 
 Inclusion of year-end (stock) data 
 
 Adding to the model prior-year values of the asset components also 
 increases the explanatory power of the model for each of the three years. 
 Although these year-end data were initially incorporated to account for 
 potential lags in adjustments between asset changes and desired sources of 
 funds, this expanded model underscores a financing trend apparently unrelated 
 to the hypothesized adjustment mechanism. The trend, which is observed for 
 each of the three years for which sources and uses data are available, shows 
 an increasing propensity for parent funds to be used to finance affiliate 
 plant and equipment expenditures, with affiliate liabilities to foreigners 
 tending increasingly to finance changes in current assets .12/ 
 
 Induced Affiliate Borrowing 
 
 It is probably not appropriate to attribute all shifts in the relation- 
 ships represented in the sources and uses model to the Program, particularly 
 since similar shifts are apparent among direct investors presumably not under 
 much direct pressure from the Program since their quotas were substantially 
 in excess of total affiliate investments. Whatever the cause of these 
 observed shifts in coefficients, whether attributable to the Program or not, 
 it is possible to isolate possible overall Program effects on the amounts of 
 various types of financing by comparing changes in the different sources of 
 funds which took place In 1968 and 1969 with what they would have been had 
 the 1967 relationships between affiliate asset changes and sources of funds 
 continued in 1968 and 1969 . 
 
 This approach assumes that such relationships would have continued 
 unchanged had the mandatory Program not supervened, which of course might not 
 have been the case. It also assumes that changes in current and net fixed 
 assets (as well as other assets) which took place in 1968 and 1969 in effect 
 cancelled each other out, with current assets rising above the level predictec 
 and fixed assets falling equivalently. Because of the weakness of the 
 estimates of the relevant magnitudes, no further attempt was made to 
 incorporate changes in current and fixed assets into the analysis. 
 
 As suggested above, the approach which seems to have the greatest degree 
 of explanatory power is the variant of the basic sources and uses model based 
 on current changes as well as lagged year-end stock values, especially since 
 this particular approach appears to take account of trends as well as any 
 leverage effect. Application of the relationships established on the basis 
 of this model between assets and sources of funds for 1967 to relevant asset 
 values for 1968 and 1969 yields several plausible results. Again, however, 
 it is mportant to add the caveat that predictions made on the basis of 
 
13 
 
 disaggregated (cross-section) relationships may be less than completely 
 satisfactory, so that the following estimates should be regarded as tentative. 
 
 In 1968, actual flows of parent funds to foreign affiliates averaged 
 $7 »h million per direct investor, while the value predicted on the basis of 
 I967 relationships averaged $9.1 million, or $1.7 million more than the actual, 
 Thus the Program may have been responsible for a reduction in the flow of 
 total parent funds to affiliates of about $800 million in 1968 (ij.69 times 
 $1.7 million). Looking at this from the point of view of total affiliate 
 liabilities to foreigners, we find an increase in such liabilities in 1968 
 over those predicted which averaged $1.3 million per direct investor, or about 
 $600 million in total. -x- 
 
 The $600 million increase of affiliate liabilities in 1968 accounted for 
 by the model and therefore attributed to the Program amounted to about V~> 
 percent of total increases of $Ij..l billion in such liabilities. Further 
 examination shows affiliate long-term liabilities in 1968 were in total only 
 about $20 million lower than predicted by the model; total short-term 
 liabilities were thus about $620 million higher than predicted. 
 
 On a more disaggregated level, it was determined that short-term interest- 
 bearing liabilities to others in 1968 were, in total, about $8I|.0 million less 
 than predicted. This reduction may be due to the sharp rises in interest 
 rates which began in 1968, at least in some foreign countries. Short-term 
 non-interest-bearing liabilities of affiliates (mainly payables), on the other 
 hand, were about $1.3 billion in total higher than predicted. Assuming that 
 a rise in interest costs (or limited availability of credit) — not taken directly 
 into account in the model — would ordinarily cause firms to stretch out payables, 
 an increase in payables (plus other non-interest -bearing liabilities) of about 
 $500 million in 1968, may be attributable to the Program. 
 
 Looking to 1969 ^ we find actual affiliate liabilities totalling about 
 $8^0 million more than predicted by the model. This amount includes the 
 $1.2 billion by which actual short-term liabilities exceeded the level 
 predicted by the model, less the $35>0 million by which actual long-term liabilities 
 fell short of the predicted value, this shortfall probably caused by tight 
 monetary conditions. Actual short-term interest-bearing liabilities were about 
 
 The $0.14. million difference between the shortfall of average parent flows 
 ($1.7 million) and the increase in affiliate liabilities to foreigners 
 ($1.3 million) is accounted for by increases in minority equity. 
 
Ill 
 
 $375 million under the predicted level, while short-term non-interest-bearing 
 liabilities were fully $1.6 billion higher than predicted by the model. 
 Apparently payables were again substituted for interest -bearing liabilities. 
 Assuming this to have been the case, the full $8^0 million differential 
 between predicted and actual affiliate liabilities to foreigners was again 
 in 1969 due to an increase in payables. 
 
 IV. Conclusion 
 
 Although this study is restricted to analysis of data available from 
 the FDI-105 ? it nonetheless suggests a number of relatively important 
 conclusions. First, it appears that the direct investment program may well 
 have affected the course of asset expansion of U. S. foreign affiliates. 
 The growth of fixed assets during the first two years of the existence of 
 the Program was below that to be expected on the basis of 1967 experience, 
 while the growth rate of current assets exceeded that expected rate, perhaps 
 as affiliates increased their foreign borrowings and held the proceeds as 
 cash balances instead of investing them in fixed assets. 
 
 Analysis of the data showed that the Program may have been responsible 
 for "excess" affiliate borrowing amounting to about $1.1+ billion in 1968 
 and 1969. However, it is possible that this figure may have been inflated 
 by a tendency for current assets (receivables) and their financing (payables) 
 to be closely associated with one another so that the reduction of one could 
 be expected to be associated with the reduction of the other. 
 
 The study gives support to the hypothesis that direct investors 
 differentiate between sources of funds depending on the type of foreign asset 
 they are financing. The results obtained, however, do not substantiate the 
 frequently-heard contention that they finance current assets with current 
 liabilities denominated in foreign currencies. Rather, if there is any 
 tendency at all to hedge foreign assets against foreign currency devaluations 
 or other types of risks, such hedging applies to all assets, fixed as well as 
 current. However, the data, and consequently the results, do not distinguish 
 between foreign investments in various countries whose currencies may be more 
 or less susceptible to parity changes, or where other types of risks, such as 
 expropriation, may be present. 
 
15 
 
 Technical Notes and Appendix 
 
 1/ For 1967 , the last year prior to the Program, this relationship was best 
 expressed by ACA = 3.87 + .36AR f .09R+-1 - .21+CA. y, (R 2 = .513), 
 
 (3.19) (21.7) (11.7) " (10.0) 
 where ACA represents the change in current assets, AR change in affiliate 
 revenues, Rt-1 revenues in 1966 and CA -£__]_ current assets in 1966. The 
 numbers in parentheses are "t -ratios" and show a high degree of 
 statistical significance for the individual coefficients. The equation 
 suggests an overall relationship between current assets and revenues 
 which is modified by expected revenues, here represented in proxy by the 
 change in current revenues, AR. 
 
 2/ Program pressure is defined as gross annual allowables divided by total 
 affiliate asset changes, whether financed by parent or affiliate. The 
 measure has a number of weaknesses, particularly since it does not take 
 account of changes in total affiliate assets which may have been induced 
 by the Program, but implicitly assumes these to have been unaffected — 
 upwards or do wnwar ds - -by the Program. In addition, different direct 
 investors may ordinarily have financed affiliate asset changes with 
 varying mixes of parent and affiliate borrowing, so that direct investors 
 with the same "program pressure" ratio may show different use of third 
 party debt by affiliates when on a consolidated worldwide basis. Obligations 
 to third parties may have changed in a similar manner. Nevertheless, this 
 measure was the best we could devise and is a useful indicator. 
 
 3/ Changes in net plant and equipment expenditures were tested against 
 changes in revenues, lagged revenues and lagged net fixed assets in 
 much the same way as with changes in current assets. The model primarily 
 tested was a lagged capital-stock adjustment ("accelerator") model. The 
 best-fitting relationship for I967 was NPE = .96 + .19 A R + .01R+ ]_ + 
 
 2 . . (.760) (10.8) (1.07) 
 
 .OtfNK, -JJt - .1x1) where NPE is net plant and equipment expenditures, 
 
 Z\R and R t-1 are as defined in Footnote 1, and NK t _ 1 is net capital 
 stock for the previous year (1966). This equation, which fit the data 
 better than other similar equations, may have both the wrong signs and 
 the wrong orders of magnitude. Affiliate revenues for the FDI-105 
 sample, however, include resales of goods imported from the parent, so 
 that ordinary accelerator-type relationships between production capacity 
 and sales (which represent about 95 percent of the revenue data collected 
 by OFDI) cannot be expected to hold. For this reason the sample was 
 stratified according to average capital/revenue ratios for 1966 -69 (K/R) 
 and the stratification was found to be statistically significant. The 
 results are somewhat puzzling, particularly since the best fits were 
 obtained for direct investors whose aggregate affiliate capital revenue 
 
16 
 
 ratios were on the high and. low ends of the averages. 
 
 1. K/R> 1.0 (59 obs.) 
 
 NPE = U.33 + 1.73AR + 1.11% -> - .76NK t -, (IT = .91) 
 (2.75) (23.9) (12.6) (lU.O) 
 
 2. 1.0>K/R >.25 (206 obs.) 
 
 NPE - .88 + .17 AR - .02R+.! + .16NK+ -, (R = .52) 
 (,3h9) (6.810 (1.17) " (3.76) 
 
 3. K/R < .25 (2 01; obs.) 
 
 NPE = -.01; + .17AR - .03R+ i - .ll;NK, -, (R = .71) 
 (.113) (21.5) (6.U9J (U.15) 
 
 h/ 1968 
 
 1. K/R> 1.0 (^9 obs.) 2 
 
 NPE = 2.88 + .28AR + .HiR+_i - .05NK t -, (R = .375) 
 (1.35) (1.18) (.720) " (.366) 
 
 A slightly better fit (corrected for degrees of freedom) resulted when 
 lagged revenues were dropped: NPE = 2.59 + .39AR + .OUNK, -. (R^ = .381) 
 
 (1.21;) (2.33) (.9^9) 
 
 2. loO>K/R>.25 (206 obs.) 
 
 NPE = 3.53 + .10AR - .03Rt-l + .09NK t 1 (R 2 = .510 
 (2.02) (3.69) (2.11;) (3.I4I) 
 
 3. K/R < .25 (201; obs.) 
 
 NPE = 1.07 + .05AR - .005R + -1 + .08NK, -. (R = .56) 
 (.U18) (11.1) (1.35) (3.65) t_i 
 
 1969 
 
 1. K/R^ 1.0 (^9 obs.) 
 
 NPE = 8.I4.3 + .85AR + 1.56R t -, - 1.07NK, -. (? = .73) 
 (2.5U) (10.8) (7.77) (7.09) t_± 
 
 2. 1.0 :> K/R > .25 (206 obs.) ? 
 
 NPE = 2.31 + .12 AR - .03R + 1 + .08NK, -, (R = .20) 
 (.916) (3.67) (1.76)" (2.1*9) 
 
 3. K/R >~.25 (201; obs.) 
 
 NPE = .13 + .OliAR - .002R, ■, + .03NK f -, (R = .06) 
 (.288) (3.17) (.358) " (.965) 
 
 Conspicuously poor fits, particularly in 1969, probably mean that 
 excluded variables, such as foreign profit and interest rates, played 
 an important role in foreign fixed asset accumulation. 
 
17 
 
 5/ Thus the uses of funds for different types of asset increases were taken 
 as exogenous variables, which is ultimately" tantamount to assuming 
 affiliate asset formation to have been unaffected by the Program. "While 
 we have seen that this was not the case, our analysis does suggest that 
 induced changes may have been roughly offsetting. The data available 
 did not lend themselves to being treated in a fully consistent system 
 of simultaneous equations. 
 
 6/ The leverage effect can be represented by the equation AV = 
 
 a + bAA + u, where AsV is equal to changes in the parent's share in 
 net worth plus changes in affiliate liabilities to the parent (the two 
 are not further distinguished). A A represents the change in total 
 affiliate assets and b indicates the degree of leverage, or the change 
 in parent funds associated with a change in total assets. These figures 
 are for net asset increases and thus exclude depreciation as a source 
 of funds. 1967 results were AV = .09 + .^3A\A; (R 2 = .79). 
 
 (.01) (Ul.6) 
 
 = a + bi NPE + b 2 ACA + bj A 0A + b^ALR + u. 
 
 7/ The fundamental relationships were put into equation form as 
 
 AV^ 
 
 AL 
 
 A L is equal to changes in total affiliate liabilities to others 
 (including a small portion of such liabilities owed to unaffiliated 
 U. S. persons). NPE is net plant and equipment expenditures, ACA 
 changes in current assets, A 0A changes in other assets, A LR changes 
 in long-term receivables. The sum of these four terms is equal to the 
 change in total affiliate assets, and u is the so-called "unexplained 
 residual." AV and AL comprise virtually the entire source of funds 
 in the model with the exception of changes in foreign equity ownership, 
 quantitatively generally quite small. Econometricians will recognize 
 that treating AV and A L as independent of one another will tend to 
 bias somewhat the results of the regressions. In addition, AL was 
 broken down into its individual components, short- and long-term, 
 interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing. It should be remembered that 
 AV includes funds borrowed abroad by the parent. 
 
 8/ The asset stock variant was expressed by AV = a + b-i NPE + b 2 NIA_i + 
 
 bo ACA + bi. GA+ -, + b^AOA + b A 0A, . + b 7 A LR + boLR, , + u. NK, 1 
 ■ + *■ U a t "^+ 1 5, , „ t_i .7 8 t-1 . .t-1 
 
 is net fixed capital stock for the previous year, and the remaining 
 
 variables with the t-1 subscript are the lagged year-end (stock) values 
 
 for the other asset components in question. Inserting the lagged 
 
 values into the basic equation given in Footnote 7, besides taking into 
 
 account lags in adjustments, may also reflect the leverage effect. 
 
 This could be the case where a rapid rate of growth of a given asset — 
 
 if it ordinarily has a particular source of funds associated with it — 
 
 can increase or decrease overall leverage. For example, should a 
 
 direct investor try to maintain a particular relationship between 
 
18 
 
 current assets and affiliate borrowings, where current assets increase 
 at an unusually rapid rate, he may find his foreign liabilities 
 representing a greater proportion of total investment than he wishes. 
 The existence of the stock values in the equation takes the percentage 
 rates of growth of the different assets into account and should thus 
 partially reflect the leverage effect. 
 
 9/ However, the value of the intercept shifts from 1.18 in 1967 to -2.17 
 in 1968 and -1.3k in 1969. An examination of the relationships between 
 affiliate asset changes and liabilities to others presents a somewhat 
 different picture. Here we find the percentage of increases in current 
 assets financed by foreign affiliate borrowings falling from k9 percent 
 in 1967 to 36 percent in 1968 and then rising sharply to 55 percent in 
 1969. Financing of net plant and equipment expenditures from foreign 
 affiliate borrowings fell equivalently from U8 percent in 1968 to 38 
 percent in 1969. We do not have any explanation for this anomalous 
 result, which is clearly inconsistent with the results when examined 
 from the point of view of parent funds; it is possible that the apparent 
 inconsistencies can be explained by changes in minority equity. 
 
 10/ Use of the working capital concept is equivalent to assuming that short- 
 term liabilities finance only current assets. This is, of course, not 
 true: in 1967, around 27 percent of plant and equipment expenditures 
 were financed by short-term liabilities to others; this fell to about 
 k percent in 1968 and rose back to 18 percent in 1969. 
 
 11/ AV = -1.52 + .67 HPE' + .U7ACA' + 1.21+AOA' + .lilALR'; (R 2 = .902) 
 (2.93) (21.8) (23.5) (13.5) (3.69) 
 Primes indicate average values . 
 
 12/ The trend was indicated by the fact that for each of the three years, 
 1967 to 1969, changes in the flows of parent funds are positively 
 related to both current year changes in fixed assets and to the year- 
 end total for the previous year. At the same time increases in flows 
 of parent funds are positively related to current asset changes (as 
 expected), but negatively related to the year-end value of total 
 current assets for the prior year. Even though the individual 
 coefficients relating changes in parent funds to individual asset 
 changes (or prior-year asset stocks) shift over the course of period 
 under study, the overall trend persists. Changes in affiliate liabilities 
 to others behave in exactly the opposite way, with a positive relation- 
 ship shown for both current asset changes and current asset stocks, but 
 a negative relationship vis-a-vis fixed asset stocks. It is of course 
 possible that the lagged stock adjustment model in question, which 
 should have positive signs with flow coefficients and negative signs 
 with lagged stock coefficients, is in fact borne out by the results, 
 since the trend effect may have simply swamped the stock adjustment 
 
19 
 
 effect. However, it was not possible to determine to what extent the 
 lagged stock adjustment equation also incorporates the "leverage effect" 
 described on p. 8. Very likely it was responsible for some of the shifts 
 in the relevant coefficients which are observed over the period under 
 study. 
 
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 The Survey Tables 
 
 These tables summarize balance sheet data for majority-owned affiliate 
 foreign nationals for the years 1966-1969 as reported to OFDI by the l\69 
 direct investors filing Form FDI-105 in 1969, and 1970. The data are broken 
 down into "all schedules (excluding Canada)" which include the areas of the 
 world subject to Program restriction, and Canada, which is exempt from 
 restriction. 
 
 Structure of Foreign Affiliate Assets and Liabilities tables (Tables la, b - 
 Vila, b) represent year-end balance sheet data taken directly from the FDI- 
 105 reports. These tables exclude accumulated depreciation charges; 
 accordingly, fixed assets are net of depreciation. 
 
 Sources and Uses tables (Tables Ic - VIIc ) were derived from the reported 
 balance sheet data and can, for the most part, be reconstructed by the reader 
 from Tables la, b - Vila, b. However, they include depreciation charges 
 as a source of funds, so that the fixed asset figures in these tables are 
 gross of depreciation. Unlike many sources and uses of funds tables, these 
 do not include earnings or dividends as the data were not available from 
 the FDI-105 forrrio Retained earnings data were also not directly available 
 from the form, but were estimated from information filed on Form FDI-102F. 
 
 Tables Id - VEId include various earnings, debt-equity, and capital revenue 
 ratios of general interest. Unlike sections a - c of the tables, these do 
 include estimates of affiliate earnings as derived from the FDI-102 reports. 
 It should be noted, however, that although earnings data are for the same 
 set of direct investors reporting for the FDI-10^, they include data for 
 non-majority affiliates as well as for the majority-owned affiliates 
 covered in this survey. 
 
 Tables la - d cover all I4.69 direct investors filing FDI-105; the sample of 
 direct investors filing was not restricted to any particular industries. 
 As noted in Part I of this study, all data filed are consolidated by the 
 direct investor, so that where industry breakdowns are provided, such 
 breakdowns are on the basis of the parent's Standard Industrial Classification 
 (SIC) code, rather than that of the affiliate. 
 
 Tables II a - d cover the 6l direct investors primarily engaged in the 
 extractive industries and include SIC codes 10 - lit and 29; the bulk of the 
 assets covered is, of course, employed in the petroleum industry. Tables 
 IHa - d cover 313 direct investors engaged in manufacturing (SIC 19 - 39, 
 excluding 29), leaving 95 direct investors primarily engaged in other 
 industries such as printing and publishing, sales and finance, real estate, 
 etc. This residual category Is not broken out from Tables la - d. 
 
23 
 
 Direct investors engaged primarily in manufacturing whose affiliates were 
 covered in the survey were further broken down into "chemical and allied" 
 (SIC 28), of which there were 6 5 direct investors covered in Tables IVa - d, 
 and "electrical machinery, " of which US were included in Tables Va - d 
 (SIC 36). 
 
 Finally, Tables Via - d cover the I4.6 direct investors reporting for "non- 
 electrical machinery" (SIC 35 )j and Tables Vila - d include data from the 
 20 direct investors primarily engaged in the production of "transportation 
 equipment" (SIC 371 - 375, 379). 
 
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 52 
 
 Footnotes to Survey Tables 
 
 1/ Industry groupings by two and three digit Standard Industrial 
 Classification Codes are as follows: 
 
 Industries 
 
 a. Extractive Industries 
 
 b. Manufacturing 
 
 c . Chemical and Allied 
 
 d. Electrical Machinery 
 
 e. Non-Electrical Machinery 
 
 f. Transportation Equipment 
 
 2/ Includes liabilities to other U. S. persons. For example, in 1967 12.6 
 percent of such long-term liabilities reported for Scheduled Areas A, B 
 and C were owed to U. S. residents. The comparable figure for Canada 
 was 21;. 7 percent. In 1968, the corresponding figures were 13.1 percent 
 and 19.1 percent, respectively. 
 
 3/ The increases in fixed assets shown in the Sources of Funds (Tables Ic - 
 VII c ) refer to increases in gross fixed assets before allowances for 
 depreciation. Fixed assets shown in all other tables are net fixed 
 assets, i.e., net of accumulated depreciation. 
 
 h/ Other Assets include long-term receivables and intangibles. Rounding 
 
 errors and other minor statistical discrepancies were attributed to this 
 category. 
 
 5/ Total earnings of majority-owned foreign affiliates are net of foreign 
 taxes, and are estimated from cumulative quarterly report Form FDI-102 
 data for direct Investors reporting in this survey. They reflect 
 transactions with the domestic operating units of the U. S. direct 
 investor and unrelated foreigners, but exclude earnings arising from 
 transactions with majority-owned foreign affiliates of the same direct 
 investor. 
 
 6/ Revenue is net of allowances and returns. It includes sales, service, 
 rents, interest, royalties and dividends arising from transactions with 
 the domestic operating units of the U. S. direct investor and unrelated 
 foreigners, but excludes earnings arising from transactions with 
 majority-owned foreign affiliates of the same direct investor. 
 
 7/ In the computation of the debt-equity ratio, liabilities of the affiliate 
 to the U. So parent firm were counted as equity. Equity includes 
 minority equity as well. 
 
 * U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1971—481-323/10 
 
PE NN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES 
 
 AODDD?m 
 
 ^5 
 
 Dl