■C&?.x°*< 1 rts/i/^- 1 VOLUME 2 RAL APPENDIXES ID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY Y LOUIS'IAN, ICillKlKlMKll lulliKvilillHKl i'GINIA U.S. MAR IT OUISIANA MINNESOTA ADMINISTRATION MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY ARKANSAS '^OURI NEBRASKA OHIO OKL.A ^MINISTRATION MID-AME1 SOURI NEBRASKA OHIO C ' ARKANSAS ALABAMA I I /ANIA TENNESSEE WEST ' ANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIA U.S. MARITIME ADMINISTR, SSI SSI P ICA PORTS STUD K LA NOMA PENNSY LI NO IS IOWA KAN TION MID-AME^CA PORT 31 NEBRASKA C«J OKI , PENNSYLVANIAmENNESS! ^ M OWA KANSAS KETWJCKY NIA U.S. MARITIME^DMir NNESOTA MISSISSIPPI ON MID-AMERICA PORTS STU^^^ RASKA OHIO OKLAHOMA PENNSYLV/JL AS ALABAMA ILLINOIS IOWA KANSAS K! E WEST VIRoV Y LOUISIANA f . . _ PENNSYLVANIA TENNI TKANSAS ALABAMA ILLINOIS IOWA KANSAS KENT /ANIA TENNESSEE WEST VIRGINIA U.S. MARITIME : "KENTUCKY LOUISIANA .MINNESOTA MISSISSIPPI IV MINISTRATION MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY MISSOURI NEBRASKA OHIO OKLAHOMA Pf STUDY ARKANSAS ALABAMA JNOIS 10 ;ica Pi OK LA' .OUISIANA )MINISTRA SOURI NEl ARK Ah /ANIA TENNESSI JSYLVANIA 1ENNESS1 L WEST VI DUISIANA M ■ i RATION I MERIC, ANSAS KENTUCI U.S. MARITIME 1 vIESOTA MISSISSIPPI f ICA PORTS STUDY ARKANSAS ALflfii OKLAHOMA PENNSYLVANIA TENNE \ ILLINOIS IOWA KANSAS KENTUCF WEST VIRGINIA U.S. MARITIME ADM? MISSISSIPPI PORTS S 1 W I A MHJ M yjRi Nt PENNSY 10] ;ka c LVANIA TENNI 7A KANSAS KENT /IHUINIA U.S. MARITIME , "'•'"'NESOTA MISSISSIPPI M AMERICA PORTS STUDY OUISIANA MINNESOTA MISSISSIPPI M INISTRATION MID' SSOURI NEBRASKA MA NISTI 1 IRGINL IA MINNI ION RASKA OHIO OKLAHOMA PE ARKANSAS ALABAMA ILLINOIS 10 'NSYLVANIA TENNESSEE WEST VII KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MINNES' TTIME ADMINISTRATION MID-AH SISSIPPI MISSOURI NEBRASKA C IERICA PORTS STUDY ARKANSAS ALAB/^ )MINISTRATION MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY 7S& £KA OHIO OKLAHOMA PENNSYLVANIA TENN[ AS ALABAMA I LLINOIS IOWA KANSAS KENT ^OURI NEBRASKA OHIO OKLAHOMA PENNSYLVANIA TENNESSEE WEST VIRGINIA U.S. MARITIME , ARKANSAS ALABAMA I LUNOIS IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MINNESOTA MISSISSIPPI M 'ANIA TENNESSEE WEST VIRGINIA U.S. MARITIME ADMINISTRATION MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY VOLUME 2 GENERAL APPENDICES U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE "«r„ o« " MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY FINAL REPORT JUNE 1979 TAMS | TIPPETTS-ABBETT-McCARTHY-STRATTON 1? TEMPLE, BARKER & SLOANE, INC. % CHASE ECONOMETRIC ASSOC. INC. o v. 3 THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY VOLUME 2 - APPENDICES A - F This volume contains 6 of 11 appendices to the main report . (Volume 1) of the Mid-America Ports Study. The remaining appendices are bound in 17 separate volumes t each volume con- taining those portions of the appendices pertaining to one of the 17 states which participated in the study. Appendix A - Commodity Group Analysis (TBS) Appendix B - Port Facilities Inventory Form (MarAd) Appendix C - Inland Waterway Fleet Technology (TBS) Appendix D - Econometric Forecasts (CEAI) Appendix E - Commodity Forecast Methodology (TBS) Appendix F - Interstate Compacts in Mid-America and Procedures Governing Civil Works Projects U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, MARITIME ADMINISTRATION (MarAd) TIPPETTS-ABBETT-McCARTHY-STRATTON (TAMS) TEMPLE, BARKER & SLOANE , INC. (TBS) CHASE ECONOMETRIC ASSOCIATES, INC. (CEAI) THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION (IPA) MAY 1979 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY APPENDIX A COMMODITY GROUP ANALYSIS Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from LYRASIS Members and Sloan Foundation http://www.archive.org/details/midamericaportssOOunit I. INTRODUCTION TO THE COMMODITY GROUPS Statistics on inland waterway cargo movements are col- lected and maintained by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. All cargos are classified by the Corps into one of 172 Com- modity Classifications for Shipping Statistics (CCSS) which in turn comprise 41 commodity groups. These commodity groups parallel the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) coding system. Many of the 41 resultant commodity groups represent a very small fraction of the total tonnage moved on the inland waterways. The 171 commodities have been regrouped into 20 commodity groups to achieve the objective of utilizing a smaller, more manageable number of groups, with each group representing a more significant portion of the total movements. The 20 com- modity groups are used consistently throughout the study region even though no movements of some groups occurred in certain areas. A-l II. COMMODITY GROUPING METHODOLOGY The objective of formulating commodity groups was to limit the forecasting process to meaningful commodity groups which would be large enough in volume to be significant, yet inter- nally consistent in handling characteristics. To achieve this objective the criteria used in formulating the commodity groups were each individual commodity's cargo handling characterisitcs and that commodity's relationship to a specific industry or other economic variable. The common- ality of cargo handling characteristics within a group enables that group to be matched with a specific type of cargo handling terminal . The second criterion of associating a commodity with a specific industry, usually its major consumer or producer, or other economic variable was used to facilitate the forecasting process. The two criteria used in formulating the groups did not always compliment each other. In some cases certain trade- offs were required between a commodity's fit with the group in physical handling aspects and its relationship to the primary economic variable that would be used to forecast the entire group. Salt (CCSS 1491) is an example of such a trade-off be- tween handling characteristics and forecasting considerations. Without considering handling characteristics, salt would have A-2 been grouped with the Industrial Chemicals group, its principal user industry. However, the other commodities in the industrial chemicals group are primarily moved in liquid form whereas salt is moved in dry bulk form and has substantially different hand- ling requirements. As a result, salt was grouped with Mining Products where its production and movements can be forecast using growth in the mining sector as the independent variable. Certain commodities moved on the inland waterways of the study area in small volumes or not at all. This rendered their grouping less significant than that of other commodities; how- ever, every effort was made to avoid miscellaneous assignments to preserve internal consistency of each group's handling requirements and forecasting variables. The exhibits within this Appendix showing movements by state include substantial double counting. This was necessary due to the fact that shipments out of one state most often terminate in another Mid-America state as a receipt. This results in the total of the inbound and outbound figures being substantially greater than the actual tons shipped. The intra- state tonnages, however, represent actual tons moved as they were not double counted. The last point that should be made about the set of exhibits is that not all shipments originate or terminate within the study region; therefore such shipments were not double counted. The net flow of a commodity group into or out of the study region can be determined by comparing the regions total inbound and outbound shipments. Each commodity group chapter includes three standard ex- hibits in addition to various other exhibits which show infor- mation pertaining to the production and consumption of specific A-3 commodities. The standard exhibits show the percentage breakdown of each commodity group; the shipments, receipts and intrastate movements for each group; and the aggregate shipment receipts and intrastate movements within the study region for the period 1969-1976. The commodity group breakdowns by tons and percent were determined by using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers statistics for consolidated movements on the Mississippi River System. From the statistics, the percentage breakdown of the group was determined. These percentages were then applied to the total tons of the relevant commodity group moved in the Mid-America Region to determine the number of tons of each individual commodity moved in the region. It should be noted that the total of the tons in these exhibits represent actual tons moved in 1976, whereas the other ex- hibits double count cargo both shipped and received in intra- state movement. The last common exhibit in each commodity group chapter presents the aggregate inbound, outbound and intrastate ton- nages as discussed in the previous paragraph for a period of eight years, 1969-1976. This time series of aggregate move- ments provides an understanding of the growth or decline in shipments but should not be construed as the absolute changes in actual tons for the reasons enumerated above. Exhibit II-l present the 20 Mid-America Commodity Groups and the actual tons moved (interstate outbound and intrastate) in 1976. These twenty commodities varied in shares of total river traffic from Coal (29.7 percent) to Bauxite and Aluminum Ores (.1 percent). Exhibit II-2 presents the composition of A-4 each of the 20 Commodity Groups, listing in each case the CCSS codes within each. Exhibit II-3 lists the terminal codes that describe cargo handling requirements. A-5 Exhibit II-l MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY COMMODITY GROUP TONS MOVED IN 1976 Tons Percent Commodity Group (in thousands) of Total 1. Cash Grains 44,318 10.0 2. Iron and Nonferrous Metal Ores 12,363 2.8 3. Bauxite and Aluminum Ores 420 .1 4. Coal and Coal Products 131,359 29.7 5. Crude Petroleum 33,811 7.6 6. Petroleum Products 87,452 19.7 7. Industrial Chemicals 25,673 5.8 8. Agricultural Chemicals/ Fertilizers 13,175 3.0 9. Milled Grains and Agricultural Products, NEC 7,384 1.7 10. Lumber and Wool Products 1,797 .4 11. Sugar and Molasses 1,240 .3 12. Primary Ferrous & Nonferrous Metal Products 6,339 1.4 13. Fabricated Metal Products 535 .1 14. Scrap Metals 1,558 .4 15. Construction Materials 42,741 9.6 16. Mining Products, NEC 15,711 3.5 17. Non-Durable Manufactures 2,214 .5 18. Durable Manufactures 2,842 .6 19. Waste and Scrap 5,308 1.2 20. Waterway Improvement Materials 7,337 1.6 Total 443,585 100.0 A-6 Exnibit 1 1-2 "ID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY COMMODITY GROUP COMPOSITION Group 1 — Cash Grains (Terminal Code 0) 0102 Barley and Rye 0103 Corn 0104 Oats 0105 Rice 0106 Sorghums 0107 Wheat 0109 Grains, NEC 0111 Soybeans 0112 Flax Seed 0119 Oilseeds, NEC Group 2 — Iron and Nonferrous Metal Ores and Concentrates (Terminal Code F) 1011 Iron Ore and Concentrates 1021 Copper Ore and Concentrates 1061 Manganese Metal Ores and Concentrates 1081 Chrome Ore and Concentrates 1091 Nonferrous Metal Ores, NEC Group 3 — Bauxite and Aluminum Ores (Terminal Code Q) 1051 Bauxite and Other Aluminum Ores and Concentrates Group 4 — Coal and Coal Products (Terminal Code E) 1111 Anthracite Coal 1121 Coal and Lignite 2920 Coke, including Petroleum Coke 3313 Coke (Coal and Petroleum), Petroleum Pitches and Asphalts, and Naphtha and Solvents Group 5 — Crude Petroleum (Terminal Code J) 1311 Crude Petroleum Group 6 — Petroleum Products/Lubricants (Terminal Code K) 2911 Gasoline 2912 Jet Fuel 2913 Kerosene 2914 Distillate Fuel Oil 2915 Residual Fuel Oil 2916 Lubricating Oils and Greases 2917 Naphtha, Mineral Spirits, Solvents, NEC 2918 Asphalt, Tar and Pitches 2921 Liquified Petroleum Gases, Coal Gases, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids 2991 Petroleum and Coal Products, NEC A-7 Exhibit 1 1-2 Page 2 of 5 Group 7 — Industrial Chemicals (Terminal Code R) 2810 Sodium Hydroxide (Caustic Soda) 2811 Crude Products from Coal Tar, Petroleum, and Natural Gas, except Benzene and Toluene 2812 Dyes, Organic Pigments, Dyeing and Tanning Materials 2813 Alcohols 2814 Sulphuric Acid 2815 Boric Acid 2816 Radioactive and Associated Materials, in- cluding Waste 2817 Benzene and Toluene, Crude and Commercially Pure 2818 Sulfuric Acid 2819 Basic Chemicals and Basic Chemical Products, NEC 2821 Plastic Materials, Regenerated Cellulose and Synthetic Resins, including Film, Sheeting and Laminates 2823 Synthetic (man-made) Fiber 2851 Paints, Varnishes, Lacquers, Enamels, and Allied Products 2861 Gum and Wood Chemicals 2891 Miscellaneous Chemical Products 1493 Sulfur, Liquid Group 8 — Agricultural Chemicals /Fertilizers (Terminal Code I) 1471 Phosphate Rock 1479 Natural Fertilizer Materials, NEC 2871 Nitrogenous Chemical Fertilizers, except mixtures 2872 Potassic Chemical Fertilizers, except mixtures '2873 Phosphatic Chemical Fertilizers, except mixtures 2874 Phosphatic Fertilizers and Materials 2875 Ammonium Sulphate, All Grades 2876 Insecticides, Fungicides, Pesticides, and Disinfectants 2879 Fertilizers and Fertilizer Materials, NEC Group 9 — Milled Grain and Agricultural Products, NEC (Terminal Code A) Cotton, Raw Tobacco Hay and Fodder Field Crops, NEC Fresh Fruits and Tree Nuts, except Bananas and Plantains Bananas and Plantains Coffee, Green and Roasted Cocoa Beans 0101 0121 0122 0i29 0131 0132 0133 0134 A-8 Exhibit 1 1-2 Page 3 of 5 Group 9 — (continued) 0141 Fresh and Frozen Vegetables 0151 Live Animals (Livestock) 0161 Animals and Animal Products, NEC 0191 Miscellaneous Farm Products 0911 Fresh Fish, except Shellfish 0912 Shellfish, except Prepared or Preserved 0913 Menhaden 2041 Wheat Flour and Semolina 2042 Prepared Animal Feeds 2049 Grain Mill Products, NEC Group 10-- Lumber and Wood Products (Terminal Code D) 0861 Forest Products, NEC 2411 Logs 2412 Rafted Logs 2413 Fuel Wood, Charcoal, and Wastes 2414 Timber, Posts, Poles, Pilings 2415 Pulpwood, Log 2416 Wood Chips, Stoves, Moldings, and Excelsior 2421 Lumber 2431 Veneer, Plywood, and Other Worked Wood 2611 Pulp Group 11 — Sugar and Molasses (Terminal Codes P and T) 2061 2062 Sugar Molasses Group 12— - Primary Ferrous and Nonferrous Metal Products (Terminal Code H) 3311 Pig Iron 3314 Iron and Steel Ingots and Other Primary Forms 3315 Iron and Steel Bars, Rods, Shapes, Sections, including Sheet Piling 3316 Iron and Steel Plates and Sheets 3317 Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube 3318 Ferroalloys 3319 Primary Iron and Steel Products, NEC 3321 Primary Nonferrous Products, except Copper, Lead, Zinc, and Aluminum 3322 Copper 3323 Lead and Zinc 3324 Aluminum Group 13 — Fabricated Metal Products (Terminal Code A) 3411 Fabricated Metal Products, except Ordnance, Machinery, and Transportation Equipment 3491 Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products 3511 Machinery, except Electrical A-9 Exhibit 1 1-2 Page 4 of 5 Group 14 — Scrap Metals (Terminal Code V) 4011 Iron and Steel Scrap 4012 Nonferrous Metal Scrap Group 15 — Construction Materials (Terminal Code G) 1411 Limestone Flux and Calcareous Stone 1412 Building Stone, Unworked 1421 Crushed and Broken Stone 1442 Sand, Gravel, Crushed Rock 2951 Asphalt Building Materials 3241 Cement 3271 Lime 3281 Cut Stone and Stone Products Group 16 — Mining Products, NEC (Terminal Code G) 0931 Marine Shells, Unmanufactured 1451 Clay, Ceramic, and Refractory Materials 1491 Salt 1492 Sulfur, Dry 1494 Gypsum, Crude Plasters 1499 Nonmetallic Minerals, except Fuels, NEC Group 17 — Non-Durable Manufacturers NEC, including Processed Foods (Terminal Code A) 2011 Meat; Fresh, Chilled, Frozen 2012 Meat and Meat Products, Prepared or Preserved, including Canned Meat Products 2014 Tallow, Animal Fats and Oils 2015 Animal By-Products, NEC 2021 Dairy Products, except Dried Milk and Cream 2022 Dried Milk and Cream 2031 Fish and Fish Products (including Shellfish), Prepared and Preserved 2032 Shellfish Products 2033 Vegetables, Canned 2034 Vegetables and Preparations, Preserved, Canned, and Otherwise 2035 Fruits, Frozen 2036 Fruits, Canned 2037 Fruit and Vegetable Juices 2039 Fruits and Fruit or Vegetable Juices, Canned 2081 Alcoholic Beverages 2082 Beverages — Non-Alcoholic , Flavored Syrup 2091 Vegetable Oils, All Grades; Margarine and Shortening 2092 Animal Oils and Fats, NEC including Marine 2093 Coffee, Roasted 2094 Groceries 2095 Ice A-10 Exhibit 1 1-2 Page 5 of 5 2099 Miscellaneous Food Products 2111 Tobacco Manufactures 2211 Basic Textile Products, except Textile Fibers 2212 Textile Fibers, NEC 2311 Apparel and Other Finished Textile Products, including Knits 2621 Newsprint (standard) 2631 Paper and Paperboard 2691 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Products, NEC 2711 Printed Matter 2831 Drugs 2841 Soap, Detergents, and Cleaning Preparations; Per- fumes, Cosmetics and Other Toilet Preparations 3111 Leather and Leather Products Group 18 — Durable Manufactures, NEC (Terminal Code A) 0841 Crude Rubber and Allied Gums 1911 Ordnance and Accessories 2491 Wood Manufactures, NEC 2511 Furniture and Fixtures 2822 Synthetic Rubber 3011 Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products 3211 Glass and Glass Products 3251 Structural Clay Products, including Refractories 3291 Miscellaneous Nonmetallic Mineral Products 3421 Cutlery, Hand Tools and General Hardware 3431 Plumbing Fixtures, Heating Equipment and Sanitary Equipment 3611 Electrical Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies 3711 Motor Vehicles, Parts, and Equipment 3721 Aircraft and Parts 3731 Ships and Boats 3791 Miscellaneous Transportation Equipment 3811 Instruments, Photographic and Optical Goods, Watches and Clocks 3911 Miscellaneous Products of Manufacturing Group 19 — Waste and Scrap Materials, Miscellaneous (Terminal Code S) 3312 Slag 4022 Textile Waste, Scrap and Sweepings 4024 Paper Waste and Scrap 4029 Waste and Scrap, NEC 4111 Water 4112 Miscellaneous Shipments, Unidentifiable by Commodity 4113 LCL Freight 4115 Vehicles 4116 Loaded Railroad Cars 4117 Empty Railroad Cars 9999 DOD Cargoes Group 20 — Waterway Improvement and Government Materials (Terminal Code S) " 4113 Materials Used in Waterway Improvement, Government Materials A-ll Exhibit I 1-3 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY TERMINAL CODES Mar Ad Code Cargo Handling Description A General Cargo Only B Passenger/General Cargo C Passenger Only D Wood and Wood Products E Coal and Coke Products F Ores and Concentrates G Non-metallic Minerals (sand, gravel, rock, brick, clays, earth, gypsum, salt, dry sulfur, cement, limestone) H Iron, Steel and Mill Products I Fertilizers (nitrates, phosphates, potash) J Crude Petroleum K Refined Petroleum Products L Liquefied Natural Gas M Liquefied Propane Gas N Liquid Bulk Ores (nickel, cobalt, sulphides) Grain P Bulk Raw Sugar Q Bauxite and Aluminum Ores R Liquefied Chemicals and Allied Products S Other T Molasses U Caustic Soda V Scrap Metal W Refrigerated A-12 III. COMMODITY GROUP 1 - CASH GRAINS Cash grains are those grains produced on a farm but not consumed on the producing farm. They are sold as a cash crop, usually on an open market. The cash grains group includes 0102 - Barley and Rye 0103 - Corn 0104 - Oats 0105 - Rice 0106 - Sorghums 0107 - Wheat 0109 - Grains, NEC 0111 - Soybeans 0112 - Flax Seed 0119 - Oilseeds, NEC ■ Cash grains are a natural commodity group within the criteria employed for grouping. The grains are all produced by the agricultural sector, have common demand variables, and are all transported, handled, and stored in the same types of specialized equipment and facilities. Grain Production The production of grains in the U.S. is dependent upon weather and soil conditions, as it is worldwide. However, in recent years the production of grains in the U.S. has additionally been affected greatly by foreign demand for grains and the resultant price fluctuations. Government loan and support price policies also affect the acreage alotted by farmers to grain production. A-13 The three grain commodities that are of major im- portance to the inland waterway system are wheat, corn, and soybeans. Soybeans are considered as a grain here, although they are normally included with oilseeds such as flax and peanuts. Exhibit III-l shows the major corn, wheat and soybean producing states. Mid-America states account for over 70 percent of the corn and soybean production in the United States. Consequently, these two commodities are the largest waterway users in the cash grains group. Mid-America states account for slightly less than 50 percent of the U.S. wheat production and much of the production area is a substantial distance from the nearest waterway. Kansas, as an example, is only bordered by the Missouri River on a portion of its eastern boundary, whereas the wheat producing areas of the state stretch over 400 miles south and westward to Colorado. The other cash grains are produced in much smaller volume than these three commodities, and are grown in areas less accessible to the waterways. A-14 Exhibit 1 1 1 - 1 MAJOR CASH GRAIN PRODUCING STATES BY COMMODITY 1974 % of U.S. State Production Total Production (000's bushels) Illinois 1,242,360 21.5 Iowa 1,091,700 18.9 Indiana 551,740 9.5 Nebraska 503,200 8.7 ; Minnesota 407,400 7.1 1 -Ohio 321,080 5.6 j . Wisconsin 198,370 3.4 Missouri 170,100 2.9 Kansas 137,760 2.4 Texas 113,300 2.0 All Others 1,029,981 18.0 Total U.S. i i ! Production 5,766,991 Wheat 100.0% j j Kansas 350,900 16.4 North Dakota 264,392 12.4 | Oklahoma 160,800 7.5 Montana 155,925 7.3 \ Washington 145,140 6.8 Texas 131,100 6.2 Nebraska 98,240 4.6 Minnesota 87,839 4.1 Ohio 74,340 3.5 Illinois 67,470 3.2 i All Others 597,657 28.0 Total U.S. Production 2,133,803 100.0% Illinois 291,810 19.2 Iowa 236,980 15.5 Indiana 119,790 7.9 Missouri 113,985 7.5 Arkansas 112,800 7.4 Ohio 100,750 6.6 Minnesota 92,820 6.1 Mississippi 68,640 4.5 Tennessee 45,325 3.0 Louisiana 43,680 2.9 1 All Others i 294,790 19.4 Total U.S. Production 1,521,370 100.0% Source: Agricultural Statistics 1976 , U.S. Department of Agriculture. A-15 Grain Markets The primary markets for U.S. grain growers are food processors, animal feed mills and exports. Exhibit III-2 shows the percentage of stocks entering each market for the year 1974. Grains are distributed through a system of storage elevators. County elevators are located throughout the growing areas and purchase and/or store grains for local farmers. Normally these elevators are located on a rail- road spur enabling them to reship the grain to subterminal and terminal elevators. Basically the elevators on the continuum from country elevator to terminal elevator become larger in terms of storage capacity, and faster in terms of loading/unloading and drying capabilities. Terminal elevators are most generally located on a rail- road but many are located along waterways. These are the origination points of most waterborne shipments of grain. The terminal elevators ship to food and feed processors and to export elevators. The areas with the largest terminal elevator capacity (combined) are Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City, all of which are accessible by water. The single largest destination area of cash grain shipments is the Lower Mississippi River. Therefore, the largest volume of grain movements on the waterways is down the Mississippi River System to the New Orleans area. This demand in the A-16 Exhibit 1 1 1-2 U.S. CASH GRAIN MARKETS 1974 (millions of bushels) 1 1 j i I Corn Food Processing 441.0 Animal Feed 320.0 Exports 1,149.0 Carry Over Stocks Total Supply 5,149.0 359.0 1 Wheat 524.9 155.0 1,039.3 326.6 2,045.7 | Soybeans * 780.0 Percent 420.7 of Total 185.0 1,385.7 Corn 8.6 62.1 22.3 7.0 100.0% ! Wheat 25.7 7.6 50.8 15.9 100.0% i Soybeans * 56.3 30.3 13.4 100.0% *Soybeans utilized in food processing are included under animal feed. Soybean crushing results in soybean meal which is primarily used as animal feed, and soybean oil which is used primarily in food processing. A-17 lower Mississippi is created by export sales. Several large export elevators are located on the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and Myrtle Grove, La. where the con- trolling draft for vessels is 40 feet of fresh water. Grain Transportation Characteristics Grains are moved exclusively in dry bulk form. There are no particular precautions that must be taken when trans- porting grain other than to assure that it remains clean and dry. The handling facilities for loading/unloading of grain at terminal and export elevators are specialized equipment which has greatly increased throughput capacity in recent years. Loading is normally achieved by belts and gravity flow whereas unloading of grain barges is accomplished with pneumatic and mechanical equipment. Grain Movements In 1976 the 43 million tons of grain shipped on the inland waterways represented 11 percent of the total tonnage. However, due to the length of the hauls, grain shipments represented over 18 percent of the total ton- miles in 1976. Exhibit III-3 shows shipments of grain by state for 1976. Exhibit III-4 shows the growth in waterborne ship- ments of grain from 1969-1976. Grain is one of the fastest growing commodity groups. Over the past seven years it has grown in volume of movements at a compounded rate of 10.0 percent per year. A-18 Exhibit 1 1 1-3 CASH GRAIN SHIPMENTS 1976 (short tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 1,244,185 367,188 493,239 Arkansas 29,879 1,533,068 o Illinois 190,627 17,447,427 233,705 Indiana 138,519 1,250,248 Iowa 4,110 4,888,835 1,375 | Kansas 1,150 89,026 Kentucky 36,248 1,097,222 4,522 I Louisiana 37,952,746 356,246 1,076,322 ■ Minnesota 1,633 5,747,251 29,275 Mississippi 821,834 683,242 64,333 | Missouri 217,907 5,238,369 20,862 Nebraska 2,400 258,188 2,334 Ohio 4,469 1,300,208 Oklahoma 211,780 Pennsylvania 1,420 Tennessee 1,034,285 1,080,833 14,031 ] West Virginia 1,461 i Wisconsin 2,708 570,956 Total 41,684,120 42,121,566 1,939,998 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-19 to ■M O rom <— 1 in CO CO LT) o en cn CO CM CO ** in <£> o in r» in in r-» ro in in «*r «3- *>i- m 01 n in in in o in CO OJ 4^ VO CO cn in CM Cn r«» «d- «3 cr> "d- VD ro VD in ro » Cn o CO «a- ro cn oo 2: UJ t— i Q_ 4-> •r- m r>-» cn oo <— i i 2: cn ►—i in «=C cn q; --< X oo «=c o 10 o +-> +-> S- o -o c O o co «x> in cm in i— i w w n ro O ro C-J CM CM o CM «3" O m cm o m I^ <^r OO ID o t-n sf in cm co ^f ro o «— " in r-^ «3- ro ro cn cn CM CM CM CM CM in cm ro ^f c — "CM ■o c O a. E O u S- >■> O) > cu OO CD c 1 > Q c -M < to <4- .a CO 1^ o x: UJ a. 1— < > — i to UJ O UJ on cc 3 o UJ a: o o **8 <^6 e as ^1 W E Ss ess 00 ..Hon 00 1 i U 4» 41 eo ti _ J C 3 41 g u =g — — -~Z,Vi ill o«2 • *ss SB go >»3 d 41 ^ *• Sjo • S O b B i- o • Q-cr> •r- KO ■*-> r^ to a~> •r- i— t +-» rO »> +-> fO t- 3 +J C W C C a) a i- O A-26 The steel mills in Texas and Alabama use local sources of ore supplemented by foreign imports. Iron Ore Movements It is from the imported iron ore that the movements of iron ore on the inland waterways originate. The major move- ments occur on the Black Warrior and Tombigbee Rivers in Alabama where 3.8 million tons of iron ore moved in 1976. These shipments originated in Mobile where ocean-going bulkers discharged iron ore which was later transferred to barges for upriver shipment. Less than 1 million tons of iron ore moved on the entire Mississippi River system. The movements that occurred, originated in the lower Mississippi River and terminated on the Ohio River or in the Pittsburgh area. Iron Ore Transportation Requirements Iron ore is transported in a dry bulk form. It is a very dense cargo stowing about 17 cubic feet per long ton and is normally discharged from vessels or barges with clamshell grabs. Due to the low value of iron ore and its non-deteriorating nature, users stockpile large volumes of iron ore. These characteristics also impact on modal choice. The low value forces shippers to utilize the lowest cost mode of trans- portation and stockpiling alleviates the need for quick transit times. This results in iron ore moving on the waterways whenever possible provided the transfer costs between modes if required will be offset by the lower water- way line haul costs. A-27 Railroads are the only other transportation mode used for line hauls of iron ore. Trucks are used only for local movements at steel mills. Nonferrous Ores and Concentrates Of the nonferrous metals, manganese ore moves in the largest volume on the inland waterways. The U.S. imports its entire need of manganese ore as virtually no known reserves exist in the United States. The major consumer of manganese ore is the iron and steel industry. Manganese is used in making iron and steel castings. As a result of this situation, manganese ore move- ments occur from the lower Mississippi to the Ohio River and Pittsburgh area. Copper ore and concentrates will not be discussed here due to the minimal volume of movements of this commodity on the inland waterways. Other nonferrous metal ores do move on the inland waterways but in limited quantities. This would include lead, zinc, and chromium ores. In 1976 less than one million tons of these ores moved on the waterways. The principal movement of these ores was up the Mississippi to the Ohio River and Pittsburgh area. Other isolated movements of nonferrous ores occurred but in very limited volume. A-28 Transportation Requirements of Nonferrous Metal Ores All of the nonferrous metal ores are moved in dry bulk form. Their handling characteristics are basically the same as for iron ore. One distinction which separates the ferrous and non- ferrous ores is their value per ton. Nonferrous ores are higher in value in comparison to ferrous ores. As a result, the railroads are strong competitors for the nonferrous metal ores as they usually can provide quicker transit. Iron and Nonferrous Metal Ore Movements Exhibit IV-3 shows the shipments and receipts of this commodity group by state for 1976. Exhibit IV-4 shows the changes in volume of movements over the period of 1969-1976. The percentage composition of Commodity Group 2 and the tons of each commodity moved on the inland waterways of the Mid American Region in 1976 are shown in Exhibit IV-5. A-29 Exhibit IV-3 SHIPMENTS AND RECEIPTS OF IRON AND NONFERROUS METAL ORES 1976 (Short Tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Source: Temple, Barker and Sloane, Inc. Alabama 46,575 36,558 3,866,362 Arkansas 12,987 Illinois 6,038,148 27,200 1,122 Indiana 1,627 Iowa 584 2,851 Kansas Kentucky 152,899 6,319 Louisiana 106,446 1,964,011 150,001 Minnesota 38,343 Mississippi 49,113 13,013 Missouri 56,139 38,917 i Nebraska 546 Ohio 776,832 53,434 Oklahoma i 1,202 Pennsylvania 520,627 168,204 Tennessee 392,398 4,680 West Virginia 110,831 28,453 Wisconsin Total 8,266,954 2,381,983 4,017,485 A-30 co o co r> o cc en CD A3 +-> 00 (T3 i- c *a- i CO CO r> ci CTi O X UJ Q rHl- Z I { •• co s-S en o{ 1— 1 -c; tot o o a: o CO I— LU 21 CL. »— 1 31 CO =3 o c o «3-oococooooco ct»coctiOoj<-hcticti cocoooor^coi-tr-» r^ «3- r^» CO 00 *r en i-». r» co CO CO CO CO co CO r-» CO I-*. 00 1— 1 CO «a- CO «a- CO «=*• CO CO «=1- CO CO CO f"«» CO 00 en c\j en co O co «sj- «-H CO CTl CO CO i—l CO en LO LO CM ^- t— i i— i r^ cm i— I LO <— I LO CX> 00 CM 00 O t-t LO CO LO LO O lo r-» r«. «-h lo o lo ^i- r^« oo o •—< co co i—t i— i ro *-• ro o h CO CO -o c ^f r-». a\ CO CO CM r~s. LO -1 **- ro 00 CO *3- LO CM o o < — i CM ^- CM CO CO LO cr> -Q ti A «\ A fl •» «\ A -*-> CO r-» LO LO CM i— i *d- CO -I LO r»» O^ r>. r— 1 CO LO cr> cr> CO LO o CM LO CO LO en CO CM cr> CM LO LO CO ro 00 ro cr» o lo r» cri cr> cr> CM cr> oo cri <3- CTi LO LO o O) c o CO -o c s' ELECTRIC UTILITIES 66 liiii mm " ml 1950 1975 1985 BUREAU OF MINIS US CHPARlMfNI Of INTERIOR Mineral Facts and Problems . 1975 Edition, Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 168. A-43 oo UJ *— "N oo O) *d- z> en +-> _i +J •p" < c JD o CD *i — C_> o -C 5_ X • 0.1 Lul c/0 Q. LT> CO co VO CO CO • • • • CT> CO CTi ^f r^. r-H co t— i m en ^J- CO LO i-^ • • • • en ^r CO 1— 1 o r-H CO »—4 «tf- LT> T— I i—i co CM CO +J C (O o_ CO A3 o LO •r- 03 4-> CU cr -a c as 03 CL> -a *r— •r - c J_ CO +-> fO +J 4-> •p~ (/) S- i — CD 3 o »i— ^i ■o a. +-> o c X ■=> o H— 1 LU CO I -a •r- -C X o "T™ s_ A-44 o CS LU Oi ^. 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CO cn cn =i- en 00 o +-> i— t LO ■=d- CM i— { r-~ LO LO c CT> i— i r»» 1 — 1 o i—l lo lo 1— < *d" un «3- Lf) LO Ln Ln Ln Ol «y LT) "3- LO CM 00 CM -a CM CO CO cn CM i-H CO cn c CO o LO LO en 1— I Ln Ln ZJ o r^ r^» LT) r— t «3- CD cn r-* -Q CO CO CO cn CO o LO LO +-> CO 1—* 1^ CO Ln t—l r^ cn ZJ o r— 1 ID CO CM 00 o O i — 1 CM CO "^ Ln LO . r^ cn CT> cn cn cn cn cn cn +-> e 03 -o S_ c ra jz: +-> i- ■s a> o ^L s- L_ CD ra ca S- ro *% ) pi r-* E a> "O h- CD -a c Z3 O) o a CL S- E Z3 o O c_> CO A-53 VII. CO.WDITY GROUP V - CRUDE PETROLEUM This commodity group includes only CCSS 1311 Crude Petroleum, Crude petroleum has been isolated as a one commodity group due to the volume of crude oil movements in the United States, the distinct transportation requirements associated with crude oil, and its importance to the inland waterways. Crude Petroleum Production United States crude petroleum production peaked in 1970 at 3,517 million barrels. In 1974, the U.S. produced 3,202 million barrels of crude, down 9 percent from the 1970 maximum produc- tion. This decline is due to the exhaustion of old oil fields and the slower rate of discoveries. Exhibit VII-1 shows total domestic production, number of wells producing, and average production per well for the years 1969 through 1974. The number of producing wells has been de- clining steadily since 1969. The average production per well has remained relatively constant since 1970. Presently 31 states have proven reserves of crude petroleum, however, oil is produced in only 30 states. Exhibit VI 1-2 shows proved reserves as of January 1, 1976 in the 31 states and the crude oil production for 1975 by state. Exhibit VII-3 shows production by state as a percent of total U.S. crude petroleum production for the largest producing states. A-54 CVJ r-l CM T-H co ^J- o vo •=a- «sf fl n #* r-. VO r^ VO (Tt O t—t CVJ *3" >, I -c I— I > CC C 4-> •r- CO X> p- •r- CU J= S- X S_ UJ (Q XI CTt ro CO 00 r>«» o r-» LO cri co r^ CO A VI a r^ O r^ VO o> VO cn r-H co ^j- CO CO CO Lf> r-l ** Cn CO «3" r^ CVJ n A *i r-«. LO 00 VO LO o l-H «d- uo CO ^3- 00 VO t—t r-l r^ en CVJ vo #i «l •t CO r» vo LO t— i «si- LO CO o o *a- LO en CVJ «3" cn vo o * •I * r>» f^» o VO CT> r-l CO .— i io lo CO r— 4 r»*. CO lo CVJ «— t i-H CVJ CVJ cn A m « vo r—t t^. VO en r««. *t i— i CO LO co c o CO •p— c 4-> o U •p— 3 +-> ■o o O 3 s_ TJ Q. CVJ o CO i- O r— Q. •r— p— 4-> CU r— (/) 3 r— CU O) E <+- 3 O o Q (1) i- cn p— CU (O ea -Q s_ +J E CU o 3 > 1— z: » cn o o X) S- rO CO >- c cu s- +-) ro cn o 3 ■o o s- o. V) CO r— CU CU c 3 •f* s: O «+- o 01 13 X) fO • E CU *— ->. 3 S- -a c 3 • c CO CO CU >> CO XI *cn £_ s. »o -o o • CU CU •r- Q. >) ■a 5- •p™ cu •« 4-> > +-> ^J- «o •p— C 1^ ■o »— i cn cn r-H c S- CU •p- (O .e « u CU -M .*: 3 >> o -a 4- o o s_ O XI St. o s_ o. *♦- 4-> fO c CU CO c CU >- p— o E f— - •p— +-> 1— CU +-> S- (O S u fO S- 3 O. CU f- ■a CU C o o Q -r- s. s: s_ Q. • CU CO T3 XI p— • c E »0 ZZ> (O 3 4-> ^ o H- CU * fl o • • S- ■D "O 3 •p— •r - o XJ XI CO t— i ►— ( ■H CVJ CO A-55 U.S. Exhibit VII-2 RESERVES AND PRODUCTION OF CRUDE PETROLEUM (thousands of barrels) Proved Reserve; .1 > Production State Alabama as of January 1, 61,032 1976 1974 13,323 Alaska 10,037,262 70,603 Arkansas 95,662 16,527 California 3,647,537 323,003 Colorado 276,066 37,508 Florida 262,529 36,351 Illinois 160,986 27,553 Indiana 22,029 4,919 Kansas 364,394 61,691 Kentucky 39,306 7,837 Louisiana 3,827,187 737,324 Michigan 93,312 18,021 Mississippi 231,158 50,779 Montana 163,968 34,554 Nebraska 28,372 6,611 New Mexico 588,110 98,695 New York 10,024 896 North Dakota 158,245 19,687 Ohio 121,263 9,088 Oklahoma 1,239,687 177,785 Pennsylvania 48,028 3,478 South Dakota 1,855 494 Tennessee 1,508 769 Texas 10,080,035 1.262,126 Utah 208,318 39,363 West Virginia 31,418 2,665 Wyoming 877,385 139,997 Others^ 5,441 Total Domestic 928 Total Reserves 32,682,127 Production 3,202,585 1 Source: The Oil and Gas Journal, April 5, 1976, p. 82 ' Minerals Yearbook, 1974 , Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, pp. 977-978. Includes: Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia. A-56 Exhibit VII-3 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL U.S. CRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCED, BY STATE, 1974 State Percentage of Total Texas 39.4 Louisiana 23.0 California 10.0 Oklahoma 5.5 Wyoming 4.4 New Mexico 3.1 Alaska 2.2 Kansas 1.9 Mississippi 1.6 All Others 8.8 100.0 Source: Minerals Yearbook, 1974 , Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior A-57 On the consumption side, the United States has been in- creasing its annual consumption of crude oil at an annual rate in excess of 4 percent. Exhibit VII-4 shows U.S. con- sumption of crude (Total Sources) for the years 1970-1974. Consumption in 1974 dropped partially due to the Arab Oil Embargo and partially due to the economic recession. Other- wise, the years 1970-1973 clearly portray the upward con- sumption trend. To fill the deficit created by falling domestic produc- tion and rising consumption, the United States imports nearly 40 percent of its crude petroleum. Exhibit VII-4 shows the absolute volume of imports, and the U.S. imports as a percent of total consumption for the years 1970-1974. A-58 Exhibit VII-4 CRUDE OIL SOURCES 1 (millions of barrels) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 2 Domestic Production 4,127 4,076 4,102 4,005 3,830 Imports 1,247 1,431 1,734 2,281 2,221 Total Sources (consumption) 5,374 5,507 5,836 6,286 6,051 Imports as percent of Total 23.2 25.9 29.7 36.2 36.7 1 Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Yearbook, 1974, p. 970. ' Domestic Production includes crude petroleum, lease condensate, Natural Gas plant liquids and other hydrocarbons and hyrdrogen refining input. Imports include crude oil, unfinished oils, plant condensate and refined products. A-59 Crude Petroleum Markets Petroleum refineries are the only users of crude petroleum. As a result, the demand for crude petroleum is directly re- lated to the demand for refined petroleum products. There is refining capacity located in 40 states. Exhibit VII-5 details the crude petroleum consumption by state. Not surprisingly, District III, which is comprised of Texas, Louisiana,, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and New Mexico, accounts for 42 percent of the total refining activity in the United States. As was noted in Exhibit VII-3, these states also account for over 65 percent of U.S. domestic crude production. As a result, there are large volumes of movements of both crude oil and refined products from this district to the crude deficit districts. Crude Petroleum Transportation Crude petroleum is transported in a liquid form only. Some types of crude require heating to maintain the proper viscosity for pumping. Other characteristics of crude petro- leum such as wax and sulphur content vary depending on the origination of the crude oil and can affect handling require- ments. Crude petroleum is transported on the waterways in barges of single skinned construction. The barges may or may not be compartment ed. Some of these barges are equipped with heating coils to maintain heat when required for pumping. A-60 Exhibit VII-5 CRUDE PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION BY STATE, 19741 State Consumption (000' s barrels) District I Delaware, Maryland 53,034 Florida, Georgia and Virginia 21,927 ; New Jersey, Rhode Island 188,896 New York 32,161 Pennsylvania: East 190,796 West 21,828 West Virginia 5,539 Total 514,181 District II 111 inois 362,007 Indiana 156,292 Kansas 133,851 Kentucky, Tennessee 62,082 Michagan 43,255 Minnesota and Wisconsin 64,261 Missouri and Nebraska 31,899 North Dakota and South Dakota 16,927 Ohio: East 20,845 West 157,953 Oklahoma 167,166 Total 1,216,538 District III Alabama 11,876 Arkansas 19,452 Louisiana 535,220 Mississippi 85,430 New Mexico 22,417 Texas 1,188,124 Total 1,862,519 District IV: Colorado 14,393 Montana 40,771 Utah 43,008 Wyoming 55,271 Total 153,443 District V: Cal i form' a 541,548 Other States 140,497 Total 682,045 Total United Stat es 4,428,726 ■ Minerals Yearbook, 1974 ; Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 990. A-61 Crude Petroleum Movements Exhibit VII-6 portrays the crude oil shipments between the PAD Districts. The most notable flow occurs between PAD District III and PAD District II. The 1,504,000 barrels per day equates to nearly 82 million tons per year. The PAD Districts are delineated in Exhibit VII-7. Pipelines account for a major portion of this movement. In 1974, 70.4 percent of refinery recepts were by pipeline. From Exhibit VII-8 it is apparent that the highest volume of inland waterway movements of crude oil occur in Louisiana. The majority of these movements originate from the Mississippi Delta region oil fields and terminate at local oil refineries (intrastate movements). Small volumes of crude petroleum are also moved on the inland waterways from Louisiana to Mississippi, Tennessee, Minnesota and Illinois. Exhibit VI 1-9 shows the total volume of crude movements on the inland waterways from 1969 to 1976. The volume of crude petroleum has been falling at a compounded rate of 8.6 per- cent annually. However, even with this lost volume, crude petroleum represented 7.6 percent of the total tons transported on the Mid America inland waterways in 1976. Assumes 6.7 Barrels of Crude per ton. A-62 «3- r-. 1 en 00 i-H *«— ^* 1— >> z: s: 03 UJ ZD -a S UJ O 1 s- i-i O a) CO 1 zc on oo \— Q. 1— 1 UJ to 1—1 1— Q- t— > O CD 1—4 UJ S- +J at o S- •f— 1— ZO 05 -O OO cc JO •r- >-l o J= Q -a X u_ c UJ Q O 03 «=c CO o_ oo =3 i l— O qc a: -C UJ o 4-> h- Q- «• — CO d) +-> 03 4-> 00 o3 -a +-> a> o +■> h- -i- c ZO CO s- +j CO s: a" oo I i i i CO LO 00 t-4 LO CO «3- oo r-«. i o co i oo LO C\J CO CO CO r-t «tf" i co lo i r^ +J u •r- S- Crt-4-> C CO •r- •!— Q.Q o_ •i- a -e < O0 Q_ co +-> S- o o_ CNJ CT> i- O •r- S~ a» +-> c a> +-> 4- O E 4-> S- 03 Q. CD Q O0 ZD CO 4- O =3 03 a> s- 13 CO cri O o 03 a> >- OS S- c A-63 Exhibit VII-7 PETROLEUM ADMINISTRATION FOR DEFENSE (PAD) DISTRICTS One/. Alasko and Hawaii) A-64 Exhibit VII-8 SHIPMENTS AND RECEIPTS OF CRUDE PETROLEUM BY STATE 1976 (short tons) State Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 421,456 3,810,397 663,104 Arkansas 33,340 12,513 Illinois 150,362 116,431 10,571 Indiana 484,493 Iowa Kansas Kentucky 228,058 Louisiana 3,057,872 9,353,347 17,814,504 Minnesota 574,872 9,374 ; Mississippi 1,294,092 177,629 Missouri 21,198 Nebraska Ohio 3,365 Oklahoma Pennsylvania 4,490 TO Tennessee 1,957,773 West Virginia 162,876 ! Wisconsin Total 8,393,653 13,479,691 18,488,179 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-65 Exhibit VII-9 SHIPMENTS OF CRUDE PETROLEUM 1969-1976 (short tons) Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. Year Inbound Outbound Intrastate Total 1969 8,041,428 42,819,164 25,016,375 75,876,967 1970 8,257,738 42,962,375 26,066,738 77,286,861 1971 9,169,332 43,936,734 27,434,135 80,540,201 1972 12,148,833 33,272,236 27,431,995 72,853,064 1973 7,858,599 24,554,025 25,966,190 58,378,814 1974 5,474,395 19,288,507 20,728,319 45,491,221 1975 8,015,016 17,248,096 19,800,986 45,064,098 1976 8,393,653 13,479,691 18,488,174 40,361,523 A-66 VIII. COMMODITY GROUP 6 - PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND LUBRICANTS The petroleum products and lubricants (hereafter referred to as petroleum products) group includes the following CCSS classifications : 2911 Gasoline, including natural gasoline 2912 Jet Fuel 2913 Kerosine 2914 Distillate Fuel Oil 2915 Residual Fuel Oil 2916 Lubricating Oils and Greases 2917 Naptha, Mineral Spirits, Solvents, NEC 2918 Asphalt, Tar and Pitches 2921 Liquefied Petroleum Gases, Coal Gases, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids 2911 Petroleum and Coal Products, NEC The commodities in this group have similar handling characteristics, are handled at the same types of specialized terminals, and are all products of the petroleum refining industry. As such, the group can be matched to a specific terminal type and growth can be forecast using the demand for petroleum products as an independent variable. Exhibit VIII-1 shows the total tons of movement of each commodity within the Petroleum Products group, and the per- cent of the group each commodity represents. A-67 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND LUBRICANTS PRODUCTION Gasoline is the most important refined product in terms of volume. In 1974 gasoline represented 49. 1 per- cent of the total output of U.S. refineries. Figure VTII-1 charts the percentage yields of refined products from crude oil in 1974. Statistics on gasoline production and consumption are shown in Exhibit VIII-2. The production of other refined products by state are in the same relative pro- portion to gasoline as shown in Exhibit VIII-1, The United States refined over 96 percent of its domestic requirements of gasoline in 1974. The balance of 4 percent was imported through East Coast ports from Caribbean refineries. U.S. refineries are operated to obtain the highest yield possible from the crude petroleum refined. In recent years the U.S. refineries have consistently produced over 45 percent gasoline. This compares to foreign refineries which may get as low as 10 percent gasoline from the crude. This percentage yield of gasoline from crude petroleum depends on the sophistication of the refinery equipment and the quality of the crude petroleum being refined. A-68 o ec ej U_ o co z o O =3 •-H Q I— O hi cc CO Q- ►i 2! => CO _h OUI N m O _J 0> > O r-» UJ CC +j CD h- •7- < UJ j3 fc- Q- •7- z UJ Q ■s O UJ UJ cc z UJ 1— 1 O. U_ LU «4- O CT> CO cr> CO CO +•> CO CvJ CXi CM i—t *d- 1— 1 1— 1 C O CO CM CM a; 1— i— 1 s. a) CL * ! * * 10 00 co CO CO CO 00 -ti- co CO CO r-«. c: r». co CO «?r CO 1— 1 er* CO CTi CO CO C CM CO 1— 1 in CM 1— < CO CO CO r»» CO r- CT> 00 CM i - ** 00 co 1— 1 CO «— 1 i—i CM +-•■ LO ■=3- 1— 1 r>. «5T CO co CO CO 1— 1 CO S~ 00 ^r CO CM 1— 1 CO CO CT> CO co «d- c sz. 00 CM CO CO CM 1— 1 CO r— t 1— < r-». CO CM f— 1 CM to to c CU > 'o co -(-> •r- s- •p— Q. CO CU to to E 3 CU O UJ (/» -t-> 3 -O O S- O. T3 U_ CU 3 cn cu c CU Q_ to >> +-> •r- 5E ■a E +J cu p— a> to r— -M cu 3 •r— c ai c r— (O (T3 •> +J •r— CU "O •r« 3 •r— t— 3 U (O r— »4- p— O p— U_ to •p— ■O •p— JZ fO cu p— E O O +J 'r— SL +J jc 3 s_ fO E I/) +-> S- to to -Q CL Q. O" +-> +-> O (O O) cu • p- CU 3 S- 1 to T3 CL. •p— #> co to r-^ CU cn •»-> r-t no +J Wi to to CU r*. »o to CU X) CU «f~ 4-> O c to 13 CU CU S- JZ 03 ■•-> -a e m~ 3 o o JO CU a cu X- J= CU +-> O CJ O CU CU «4^ C CU o X3 O i- 4-> CU ■M X) 03 CU to CU 3 J= t-3 ■m -a to E O CU S- s. <+- CU T3 cu to C CU •r- i. (X3 3 -r-> CT5 • J3 -r- C O «+- O •r- to cu cn CU C71 CU cn w ct: c T- CJ s- S- CU CU CU -E E Q. r- < * c 3 o CU 3 -a T3 -o o c >> to 2: ■K CU c (a o CO s- cu 4- fO CO CU o. E CU CU o s_ 3 o CO A-69 Figure VIII-1 COMPOSITION OF UNITED STATES REFINERY OUTPUT, 1974 Kerosine 1.3% Lubricants 1.6% Source: Minerals Yearbook , 1974 Bureau of Miner, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1002, A-70 Exhibit VIII-2 GASOLINE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION BY STATE 1974 (thousands of barrels) Gasoline Production Gasoline Consumption Gasoline Production Gasoline Consumption Alabama 528 44,349 Missouri (4) 62,586 Alaska (2) 3,883 Montana 27,133 10,667 Arizona -- 27,328 Nebraska (4) 20,674 Arkansas 7,443 27,433 Nevada (2) 9,110 California 266,529 235,428 New Hampshire -- 9,299 Colorado 8,420 30,999 New Jersey 90,024 75,588 Connecticut -- 31,602 New Mexico 9,820 16,275 Delaware (3) 7,059 New York 14,749 142,806 District of Columbia -- 5,729 North Carolina (6) 67,150 Florida -- 100,124 North Dakota 13,678 9,793 Georgia Hawaii (3) 2 65,229 6,615 Ohio Oklahoma 117,662 99,584 119,193 39,893 Idaho -- 10,900 Oregon — 28,278 Illinois 216,355 199,637 Pennsylvania 138,363 114,616 Indian 80,022 65,216 Rhode Island — 8,851 Iowa — 39,215 South Carolina -- 34,682 Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi 100,613 29,197 281,788 19,543 34,959 49,911 (5) 609,897 21,331 13,170 60,086 (6) (7) 25,578 Total 2,336,383 10,868 51,948 169,030 14,677 5,603 58,130 39,689 18,248 51,084 7,011 2,425,137 Source: Mineral Yearbook, 1974; Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1008. "Alaska, Hawaii, and Nevada production included with California. Delaware and Georgia included with Pennsylvania l Nebraska and Missouri included with Kansas Tennessee included with Kentucky. North Carolina and West Virginia included with Virginia. Wisconsin included with North Dakota. A-71 This higher yield of gasoline results in the U.S. im- porting a very low percent of its gasoline requirements but much higher percent of residual oils and other refined products. As an example, in 1974 the United States imported 60 percent of its residual fuel oil requirements. REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS MARKETS The demand for refined petroleum products is derived primarily by the demand for energy although a portion of the demand comes from the petrochemical sector. The demand for energy in turn is a function of population, standard of living, weather conditions, and industrial requirements. The U.S. also exports refined petroleum products and petro- chemicals which adds to the total demand. The consumption mix of refined petroleum products de- pends on the geographic area of the country and the type of industries located in the area. For example, in the North- east several electricity generating plants were converted from coal to oil. These plants consume residual fuel oil. Residual fuel oil is also used in heating large buildings and for marine shipping. This resulted in PAD (Petroleum Administration for Defense) District I, which includes the East Coast states from Florida to Maine, consuming 68.6 per- cent of the residual fuel oil used in the U.S. The percentage for other grades were, gasoline 34.9 percent, kerosine 41.6 percent, distillate 46.3 percent, and jet fuel 37.8 percent. All refineries produce residual oils; therefore, a state in the midwest which has refining capacity roughly equal to its local demand for gasoline, may be producing twice its A-72 local requirement for residual fuel oil. These imbalances result in substantial interstate shipments of refined products . Exhibit VTII-3 delineates the states included in the Petroleum Administration for Defense districts. Exhibits VIII-4, 5, and 6 compare the production by district of the major refined products, the demand for the products by district and the interdistrict shipments. All figures in these exhibits are in thousands of barrels per day. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORTATION Most of the refined products are transported in a liquid bulk form. Asphalt is moved in a semi-dry form. The natural gases are moved in both gaseous and liquefied form and both forms require highly specialized equipment for transporting and handling. Petroleum products are moved in single skinned tank barges. These barges are normally compartmented for product segregation. Some of these barges are equipped with heating coils, especially if they are designed for the carriage of heavy residual fuels with a high viscosity. Pipelines which provided the major transportation means for crude oil deliveries to refineries are somewhat less important in the transportation of refined Detroleum products Refined products move in smaller volumes to many widely dispersed geographic locations and consequently their movements require a more flexible transportation system. A-73 Exhibit VIII-3 PETROLEUM ADMINISTRATION FOR DEFENSE (PAD) DISTRICTS -J? (Inct. Alaska and Hawaii) Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Industry Surveys , Year 1975. A-74 Exhibit VIII-4 PRODUCTION OF REFINED PRODUCTS BY PAD DISTRICT* (thousands of barrels per day) Dfln District- Ill Total U.S. Product I rttU II IV V Gasoline** 668 1,832 2,262 193 852 5,807 Jet Fuel 44 169 399 25 234 871 Kerosine 14 38 89 3 8 152 Distillate Fuel Oil 332 780 1,183 127 231 2,653 Residual Fuel Oil 187 192 448 36 373 1,236 Lubricants 26 23 90 1 14 154 Others 251 511 932 59 311 2,064 Total 1,522 3,545 5,403 444 2,023 12,937 Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Industry Survey s, Year 1975. *Refinery output only. Does not include natural gas liquid products. **Includes aviation gasoline. A-75 Exhibit VIII-5 1975 DEMAND FOR REFINED PRODUCTS BY PAD DISTRICT (thousands of barrels per day) 1 ! __._ PAD District- Ill Total U.S. 1 Product I II IV V Gasoline 2,223 2,295 1,000 214 982 6,714 Jet Fuel 377 188 116 30 290 1,001 Kerosine 67 45 36 3 8 159 Distillate Fuel Oil 1,271 873 333 109 263 2,849 Residual Fuel 0" 1 1,460 260 281 37 394 2,432 Lubricants 55 31 36 2 14 138 Others 458 864 1,327 89 260 2,998 Total 5,911 4,556 3,129 484 2,211 16,291 Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines Minerals Industry Surveys, Year 1975. A-76 1 Exhibit VII-6 INTERDISTRIC1 RECEIPTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (thousands of barrels per day) From From From From From Product/Receiving District I II III IV V Gasoline District I - 31 1,485 - - District II 134 - 244 14 - District III - 52 - - - District IV - .12 12 - 10 District V - - 42 37 - Di till ate Fuel Oil District I - 3 799 - - District II 37 - 63 10 - District III - 14 - - 1 District IV - 1 2 - 4 District V - - 13 16 - • Residual Fuel Oil District I ~ a* 150 - - District II - - 32 - - District III - - - - 2 District IV - - - - - District V - - 7 - - All Other Products District I - 52 439 - 1 District II 5 - 288 2 - District III - 13 - 9 - District IV - - 13 - 5 District V - - 11 11 - Total Product Transfers District I - 86 2,873 - 1 District II 176 - 627 26 - District III - 79 - 9 3 District IV - 13 27 - 19 District V - - 73 64 — Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Industry Surveys, Year 1975 A-77 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS GROUP MOVEMENTS In 1976 the Petroleum Products group represented 19.7 percent of the total tonnage moved in the inland waterways of the Mid-America region. This makes the group second only to the Coal Products group in terms of total tons moved. Exhibit VIII-7 shows petroleum products movements by state for 1976. It is apparent from the data in this table, that the movements of petroleum products occur in all areas of the Mid-America region, unlike the crude oil movements which are concentrated on the lower Mississippi River. Exhibit VIII-8 shows the total movements of petroleum products for the years 1969-1976. Movements of petroleum products have been increasing at a compounded annual rate of 3.95 percent. A-78 GO i— i O -M > 21 co rv +-> ■t-> go 0^ S- •i™ 1— 1— 1 O .a <_> -C •r— => CO -C Q X O UJ a: Q- o or I— LU Q. cu OUDCMODOOlfi^OON O CO O CM CM O O LO -1-* 1— i«to^o hsn kon n CM CM O CO «3- ra to i-h iv co "JC0OCSJC0 CM LO CM CO iv +J #\ «t #* rt #» #\ #» #* #% 01 tfh . #»" ■ " rv «^- cn 1— 1 «3 >3-NOn co cn co co co CO *coo CO s- OO «^- C\J CO CT> "=3- CO co t-H CM LO O 4-> #1 «s ** c CM CT> CO t— 1 1— 1 «3- cm rv 1— ivdo r^ys covo m O CM CO CM CT) LO O LO •0 Hcomoffi co co "* lo cm CO CT» CT> LO CM c COOOiOOCM LO «vf IV «^- CO ^1- CO CO LO .— 1 1— t rsOiMOs en co co lo co LO LO 1— 1 1— 1 1 — 1 -O lo cm cm rv cm iv iv cn cm COCOONOO 1 — 1 -t-> IV CM LO CM Olv n-sl-CM CO LO LO<^<* "3" 3 **#*#»«% #l#» #N #» «* A «N HrHinn r— 1 co CO i— 1 C\J <— 1 CO CO LO ONUJeonocO'vfOOLnN "3- orvN^co CO ■0 o cn «^t- co co cooc\icn>* CO O IV CM LO LO co o o > C +->••— -r— CJ S- •!- n3 — co co 3 CO O >> co > c fOCCrO (O 3 W (U 'r O ns jC co OJ O 1 — JD rt3 •!- t- (T3 CO 4-> -r- £Z CO CO s- o n3 n3^«:i — "aSccsccoco -Q -r- 1 C C CO CO •t-> r— 1_ 1— C O A3 r- &_ O -C CO o CM o ro CM ro r- co CO i — I 1 — 1 «tf- r-». 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(0 E cu -o r— cu ■o c • • 3 CU o o Q. S- F 3 O o O co A-80 IX. COMMODITY GROUP 7 INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS The industrial chemicals commodity group includes the following CCSS classifications: 2810 Sodium Hydroxide (Caustic Soda) 2811 Crude Products from Coal Tar, Petroleum, and Natural Gas, except Benzene and Toluene 2812 Dyes, Organic Pigments, Dyeing and Tanning Materials 2813 Alcohols 2814 Sulphume Acid 2815 Boric Acid 2816 Radioactive and Associated Materials, including Waste 2817 Benzene and Toluene, Crude and Com- mercially Pure 2818 Sulfuric Acid 2819 Basic Chemicals and Basic Chemical Products, NEC 2821 Plastic Materials, Regenerated Cellulose and Synthetic Resins, including Film, Sheeting and Laminates 2823 Synthetic (man-made) Fiber 2851 Paints, Varnishes, Lacquers, Enamels and Allied Products 2861 Gum and Wood Chemicals 2876 Insecticides, Fungicides, Pesticides, and Disinfectants 2891 Miscellaneous Chemical Products 1493 Sulfur, Liquid A-81 The industrial chemicals group was formulated as such to reflect the specialized handling requirements of the com- modities; and furthermore, because of each commodity's direct relationship to the Chemical Processing Industry (SIC 28). Only three of the CCSS classifications included in this group specify a single commodity. Those three are sulfuric acid, benzene and toluene, and sodium hydroxide. All other CCSS classifications could inleude several different chemical compounds and mixtures. This generality is necessary as the number of chemicals and compounds is in the thousands and is growing. However, the generalization of groups makes exact statistics on individual commodities difficult to obtain. This problem is compounded by the fact that many chemicals are referred to by several different names. An example of this problem is sodium hydroxide which may also be referred to as lye or caustic soda. Exhibit IX-1 shows the percentage composition of the Industrial Chemicals Group and the tons of each commodity that moved on the inland waterways of the Mid-America Region in 1976. INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL PRODUCTION In recent years the Chemical Process Industries have located more and more plants in the south. Texas and Louisiana have fared best in the states' efforts to attract •t the industry. These states offer easy access to natural gas, petroleum and waterborne transportation. Chemical plant A-82 Exhibit IX-1 PERCENTAGE COMPOSITION OF INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS GROUP 2812 Dyes, Pigments, etc. 2813 Alcohols 2814 Sulphume Acide 2815 Boric Acid 2817 Benzene and Toluene 2818 Sulfuric Acid 2819 Basic Chemicals, NEC 2821 Plastic Materials 2823 Synthetic Fiber 2851 Paints, Varnishes, etc. 2861 Gum and Wood Chemicals 2876 Insecticides, Fungicides, etc. 2891 Miscellaneous Chemical Products Total 2,165,223 1,925,509 1,309,346 11,630,078 385,102 25,673,132 1 Short Percent ' Sulfur, Liquid Tons* of Total* 11.5 1493 2,952,448 2810 Sodium Hydroxide 3,157,835 12.3 } ! 2811 i Cool Tar Products 2,156,511 8.4 } 8.2 7.5 5.1 45.3 1.5 100.0% *Percentages obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976 Part 2, page 140. The tonnage figures were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid-America region. A-83 expenditures in bhe U.S. for 1978 are expected to maintain the $7 billion level of 1977, with Texas and Louisiana re- ceiving about one billion. The Southern region of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabam are expected to receive almost 50 percent of the total expenditures for expansion. Exhibits IX-2 through IX-4 show the concentration of the chemical industry. These concentrations form the pat- tern of chemical product movements as will be discussed under Industrial Chemical Markets. INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL MARKETS Virtually no industrial chemicals are used as building blocks for other chemicals or as inputs to materials to be used in the production of consumer goods. As such, the biggest consumer of industrial chemicals is the chemical industry itself. This results in patterns of chemical movements from one area of chemical production to another. Large volumes of chemicals move from the lower Mississippi River production areas up to the Illinois Waterway and Ohio River system. The other major pattern of movements occurs from U.S. Gulf ports to East Coast ports in coastwise trade. Export markets play a large role in the U.S. chemical industry. In 1976 exports represented 9.8 percent of the total industry sales compared to the 1966 figure of 6 . 7 per- cent . Chemical Week, December 14, 1977, p. 49-50 A-84 cvj i X +-> -O cc O •a: o 31 oo O i-H o —t CO I— I cc (— CO (— t a: a. - en CO Q 1 — 1 s: LU IC O A3 CO UJ o X I— 1— H—t Ll_ M- +-> O 1 — 1 o 2: CM Oi o i — i en i — i «3 i— +j X rD c CO O) 1 — 1 u on S- t— CL> co Q. 1 — 1 Q _J <=C c_> ►— < _T O- -; <> CO co c> O \A o >6 o •o d iv CO "W ' ">T CO <) co ■** 00 d o c CM CN CN CN <— CN *— ^- , o a. c 3 C> 0> gg; <_> (O CN IV co iv O iv cs co -V CN IV o O < o in o" "T 00 IV CN C) CN d 3 •— CN CN co ^" CN *— •— o C f— o c v» o s - c? — w 00 -O - q ■v q ""T o < i CN <> CS lO uS d d cn d rt -^ uo S3 d o »— i— CN CN •— CN uo o -c u -Q c ,_ Ji 6 s £ o JC £ C> oo co "T — '■ •6 co ** co — * c> ^: o O O; (> CO o CO —. 9 q ^ C) O; CN o £ •— IV CO -o o in cb <> a-' co - £ CO — ; o o o f> CO IV >o •o cn n <» O >. rr CN o o a. ' "5 C> vO o % 'o V O CN CO iv co q o» -o -o •-"_ vq io »■" q O "i ^ 00 o' *» "«t c* CO o o «o r^ -9 <> d CO o Northeast New England Middle Atlant 1 0! 1 1 ntic 1 Central 1 h Central 3 iO o U z «- o -c — -c "^ - '5 < r O *n r.\ *- o a > 3 CO UJ > O CO cu c -0 i O c 3 CI O VI ° c ~ CO a) cn ro Ol s- +-» co =J -a c: ■= .E I— I ro O a» x: c_> cu o +-> 3 «r- CD c o o CO A-86 Exhibit IX-4 INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL PRODUCTION BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS DIVISION* Division Thousands of Short Tons % of U.S. Total New England ** ** Middle Atlantic 10,883 13.7 East North Central 13,499 17.0 West North Central 1,007 1.2 South Atlantic 7,527 9.5 East South Cc-ntral 5,606 7.1 West South Central 34,409 43.4 Pacific 3,000 3.8 Total U.S. 79,278 100.0 *See Figure IX- 1 on following page for delineation of Divisons **Statistics not available. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1972 Census of Transportation, Vol. Ill, Part 1. A-87 O) s- CD A-88 TRANSPORTATION OF INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS Industrial chemicals are moved in all forms although waterborne movements are normally either in liquid or gaseous form. Packaging and volume of shipments are a function of the receivers capabilities to accept a given type of shipment and store it. Most chemical producers offer their products for shipment in a variety of volumes which may range from 50 pound boxes to hopper railcar lots or 50 gallon drums to 8,000 gallon tank car lots depending on the form of the product . Packaging and transporting of chemicals is further complicated by the inherent characteristics of the products. Some chemicals such as chlorine and ammonia are in a gaseous state at normal temperatures and must be pressurized to obtain a liquid state for ease of handling and more efficient transportation and storage. Other chemicals, such as phenol are liquid at normal temperatures but require heating for pumping in cold temperatures. Finally, chemicals such as bromine and hydroflouric acid are corrosive and need specially lined containers. These factors all complicate the handling and transpor- tation of chemicals and result in the Department of Transpor- tation classifying most chemicals as either hazardous or dangerous due to their flammable, combustible, corrosive or poisonous characteristics. Safe and efficient handling of such materials often requires the use of specialized equipment. Many of the large chemical producers operate their own specialized chemical barges, railcars and trucks. However, in 1975 A-89 less than 20 percent of the chemicals moved on the inland waterways were moved by private carriers. Most waterborne transportation of chemicals where specialized equipment is required is done on long term contract basis. Like the transportation equipment, the terminal facilities that handle chemical products are specialized. The majority of terminals are privately owned and are located at the site of the production or consuming facility. The inland waterways have attracted many chemical producers to their banks in recent years; however, the waterways by no means have an exclusive hold on chemical transportation. Many chemical users are not located on the waterways or purchase in such small volume that barge load shipments would not be feasible. In such cases railroads or trucks are used. Pipelines do not play a role in chemi- cal transportation primarily because the volume flows of any one product between two points is not large enough to justify the capital investment. In 1976, 25.7 million tons (Exhibit IX-1) of chemicals and related products moved on the waterways in internal traffic. This represented 8 percent of the total tonnage moving in internal traffic and about 12 percent of the total ton-miles with the average haul being 721 miles per ton. Exhibit IX-5 shows the shipments of the Industrial Chemicals Group by state in 1976. Of particular interest is the large movement in Louisiana. Nearly three quarters of the shipments of industrial chemicals originate in Louisiana. A-90 The aggregate movements of the Industrial Chemicals Group for 1969-1976 are displayed in Exhibit IX-6. The total shipments figure has remained relatively stable over the period. A-91 Exhibit IX-5 INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL SHIPMENTS 1976 (short tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 1,769,492 336,804 38,231 Arkansas 160,184 191,046 Illinois 2,674,471 629,762 151,923 Indiana 861,313 3,402 Iowa 94,268 58,936 Kansas Kentucky 799,103 377,232 70,663 Louisiana 2,234,660 9,084,210 5,462,305 Minnesota 308,231 Mississippi 338,748 272,276 Missouri 876,284 328,363 11,890 Nebraska 14,445 Ohio 1,569,705 121,235 Oklahoma 2,051 44,972 Pennsylvania 631,054 505,892 251,786 Tennessee 764,535 43,024 3,940 West Virginia 1,385,262 594,039 623,123 Wisconsin Total 14,483,806 12,591,193 6,613,861 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-92 C/1 LO _I LO to c o X »— 1 CTi I— i i— i +J •t— jQ JZ X LU UJ O ►—1 ce: l— i en LO CTi ■ — i S- o JZ 10 co Z3 Q co CTl lo CO O CTt 00 o ro O O co P». 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Q_ cu cu en c 03 S- c o c cu X5 O +J s_ +-> 03 OJ 4-> ■(-> CU CO A3 JZ 3 \— r-» f— t E O • •> 5_ O CM 03 TD CO +J C CU t. ZJ DirO O OJ D_ jQ 4-> C •> CU cu to jz: UNP s_ cn CU ^H +-> Q_ U •> cu CO ^— • cu tl- cn+J cu C OJ s- •r- 4-> "D CO o c +J ZJ T3 O CU ■o S- +J cu •r— 4-J • o c co c 4-> ZD ZJ o •r-J •r— CU CU ■C3 en ZJ JZ 03 cu -o +■> cu S- -o 4- S- 03 -o o cu u 03 s •1 — CU i_ 4-> a CO cu o s~ cu E c cu s- «=c E ZJ 1 >. E cn-o 03 O •r" 1 — s: o t t- s: * A-95 the agricultural fertilizer industry. Exhibit X-2 shows the 25 largest commercial fertilizer consuming states. These states account for 87 percent of all U.S. fertilizer consumption. Nitrogenous Fertilizers Nitrogen is one of three nutrients necessary to sustain plant life. Agricultural acreage can become depleted of nitrogen over a period of time. To preclude such depletion, nitrogenous fertilizers are used to replenish the nitrogen in the soil. For nitrogen to be returned to the soil, it must be in a fixed form. Ammonia (NH3) is the primary form from which fertilizers are manufactured. Ammonia is generated by reacting hydrogen with atmospheric nitrogen in what is known as the Haber Bosch process. Most modern ammonia producing plants use natural gas as their source of hydrogen. Nitrogen is available in virtually unlimited quantities from the atmosphere. Con- sequently, ammonia production facilities tend to be con- centrated in areas near natural gas sources, although with interstate natural gas pipelines this is not essential. This has resulted in recently constructed plants being located in Louisiana and Texas. In 1974 slightly over 13 million short tons of contained nitrogen were produced in the United States. Of this amount, 74 percent or about 9.6 million tons was used in the pro- duction of fertilizers. Anhydrous ammonia which accounted A-96 Exhibit X-2 CONSUMPTION OF COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER BY STATE 1975* (Short Tons) State Tons Nitrogen (N) Phosphoric Oxide (P2O5) Potash (K 2 0) California 3 ,956,097 556,325 164,961 73,616 Illinois 3 ,414,483 817,847 422,666 531,543 Iowa 2 ,999,785 746,919 424,512 442,826 Texas 2 ,215,052 624,715 223,963 92,047 Georgia 2 ,022,670 265,397 131,725 209,870 Minnesota 1 ,926,786 450,318 290,000 329,131 North Carolina 1 ,882,483 220,056 143,577 189,686 Indiana 1 ,881,538 326,306 218,695 318,200 Ohio 1 ,736,802 281,708 246,935 281,549 Florida 1 ,675,571 187,446 87,473 210,668 Kansas 1 ,464,107 567,959 173,840 45,713 Missouri 1 ,341,121 304,782 152,834 185,209 Nebraska 1 ,227,330 491,955 110,851 44,226 Wisconsin 947,182 133,414 130,781 236,960 Alabama 933,458 149,718 92,181 99,702 Kentucky 880,957 124,782 104,459 117,006 Michigan 849,136 136,697 114,514 146,337 Virginia 808,471 90,774 68,878 83,687 South Carol ina 798,780 89,567 60,137 92,183 Mississippi 762,832 187,075 68,213 62,348 Tennessee 691,636 100,795 79,632 88,299 Oklahoma 652,411 190,687 88,822 27,954 Pennsylvania 622,261 78,629 77,170 72,217 New York 586,386 88,553 69,759 70,945 Arkansas 577,659 127,735 56,550 65,975 All Others** 5 ,653,036 1,267,586 707,851 334,735 Total U.S. Consumption 42,508,030 8,607,740 4,510,979 4,452,632 *Source: Agricultural Statistics 1976 , U.S. Department of Agriculture. **Includes Puerto Rico. A-97 for 99 percent of the contained nitrogen production was produced in 37 states, however, the states of Louisiana, Texas, and California produced 42 percent of the total. ^ The fertilizers produced from nitrogen include: urea, ammonia sulfate, ammonium nitrate, sodium nitrate and diammonium phosphate (discussed in phosphatic fertilizers). Nitrogenous fertilizer production facilities tend tc be located near the facilities producing ammonia. An excep- tion to this is ammonium sulfate which is produced as a byproduct of the coke industry. Exhibit X-2 shows the consumption of commercial fertilizers by state and the nitrogen content of that fertilizer. Potassic Chemical Fertilizer Potassic chemical fertilizers commonly referred to as potash are produced from potassium salts. Commercially recoverable deposits of potassium salts in the United States is limited. These deposits are located primarily around Carlsbad, New Mexico which accounts for 82 percent of domestic production as of 1974. The balance of the potassium salts are mined in Utah and California. Ninety-five percent of the potash production in the U.S. is consumed for agricultural fertilizers. Ihe United States produced 42 percent of its domestic potash require- ments in 1974, with the balance being met by imports, mainly from Canada. Exhibit X-2 shows potassic content consumption by state. Source: Minerals Yearbook 1974 , Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior. A-98 Less than 200,000 tons of potassic chemical fertilizers moved in internal traffic in 1976. Although the major con- suming states in the Midwest are all accessible by the waterways, the production states in the Southwest are not; therefore, railroads are used as the prime mover from pro- duction area to market. Phosphate Rock Phosphate rock is a primary input to phosphatic chemi- cal fertilizers. In 1974 about 82 percent of domestic con- sumption of phosphate rock was used in the production of fertilizers. Phosphate rock is mined from surface mines. Some mined rock is acceptable for marketing or use as it is mined while most is washed to remove some of the impurities. The major phosphate rock producing states are Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee. Some phosphate rock is also produced in the Western states. Exhibit X-3 shows the production by area. The fertilizer industry has concentrated most of its production capacity of phosphatic chemical fertilizers near sources of phosphate rock. However, their are phosphatic fertilizer plants located in Texas and in Louisiana which use Florida phosphate rock. This accounts for most of the 8 million tons of coastwise movement of phosphate rock in 1976. Phosphate rock accounts for over 60 percent of the ton- nage of the Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizer group. The major portion of the phosphate rock movements originate in A-99 Exhibit X-3 U.S. PRODUCTION OF PHOSPHATE ROCK (thousands of short tons) Florida/North Carolina Western States* Tennessee Total 36,980 6,295 2,411 45,686 *Includes Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Yearbook, 1974. A-100 Florida and terminate in Louisiana on the Mississippi River. Some phosphate rock is moved up the Mississippi River to the Illinois Waterway where phosphoric acid and fertilizers are produced at Joliet, Illinois. Phosphatic Chemical Fertilizers The two main types of phosphatic fertilizers are superphosphate and ammonium phosphate. Superphosphates are produced by acidulating natural phosphate material with sulfuric acid or a mixture of sulfuric acid and phosphoric acid. Ammonium phosphates are produced by ammoniating phosphoric acid. Ammonium phosphates account for over 60 percent of the phosphatic fertilizer used in the United States. Ammonium phosphate plants are located in eleven states, however, over 73 percent of the production capacity is located in Florida (50.3 percent) and Louisiana (23.2 percent) . Phosphoric acid which is a major input to ammonium phosphate production is produced in ten states, but like ammonium phosphate, over 75 percent of the productive capacity is located in Florida and Louisiana near the ammonium phosphate plants. The concentrated superphosphates are also produced near the source of phosphate rock. As a result, 11 of the 17 total superphosphate producing plants are located in Florida, 2 representing 74.5 percent of the total productive capacity. Other plants are located in Idaho (2) and North Carolina, Utah, Missouri, and Mississippi. Fertilizer Trends 1976 , National Fertilizer Development Center, March 1977. 2 Ibid. A-101 Exhibit X-2 shows phosphoric oxide content of the commercial fertilizers consumed in the United States in 1975. In addition to the 4.5 million tons of phosphoric oxide content used domestically, the United States exported slightly over one million tons of phosphoric fertilizers in 1975. Fertilizer Transportation and Handling Characteristics Fertilizers are normally transported in covered hopper barges. They are moved in a dry bulk form, and do not re- quire any special attention or care in transit. The fertilizers in this group are all classified as harmless fertilizers. Fertilizers are loaded by conveyor belt loading facilities and are normally discharged with grabs or buckets. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Group Movements Exhibit X-4 shows the waterborne movements by state. From this exhibit the general pattern of movements is obvious. When the 6.2 million tons of phosphate rock being moved from Florida to Louisiana is factored out, Louisiana remains as the only true net outbound shipper of fertilizers. All other states with the exception of Arkansas, are net re- ceivers of fertilizers. This results in upbound movements from Louisiana to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Illinois and Minnesota are the two largest recipients of fertilizers in the Northern Mid-America Region. A-102 Exhibit X-5 shows the movements of fertilizers from 1969 to 1976 which have been growing at an annual compounded rate of 9.2 percent. As a group, the agriculture chemicals and fertilizers represent 3.0 percent of the total tonnage moved on the inland waterway system. A-103 Exhibit X-4 AGRICULTURAL FERTILIZERS AND CHEMICALS GROUP WATERBORNE MOVEMENTS 1976 (Short Tons) State Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 183,215 94,054 10,269 Arkansas 221,451 312,080 Illinois 1,919,883 39,450 10,974 Indiana 30,116 7,354 Iowa 781,780 1,520 Kansas 2,200 Kentucky 204 4 379 51,417 3,278 Louisiana 6,481,659 4,125,534 120,509 Minnesota 588,336 17,642 Mississippi 775,479 361,930 53,439 Missouri 413,784 300,545 14,379 Nebraska 98,518 138,491 2,334 Ohio 419,219 4,425 Oklahoma 59,242 Pennsylvania 29,659 6,027 Tennessee 105,134 49,119 West Virginia 2,713 22,421 Wisconsin 6,055 Total i 12,320,622 5,532,009 237,700 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-104 Q 2T LO o 1— o_ cr> y- 1— OL ZO l-H l-H LU O i +■> CO U_ CC cr> s- i— i CD VO o zc _J CTi -E X - CO r~- A •* ft A at ft *» A 03 l-H CNJ vo LO l-H o CTi o +J 00 i—l CM o CTi VO CO cn O r^ o 00 CTt LO 00 CM o I— A ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 00 CM VO CM r*>. o VO o fO I-H CM r^ CTi r^ o o o +-> LO LO CM i—i o o r-» t^. (/) fO co i— I 00 CTi LO 1 — 1 cn r«* i- LO LO LO CO VO o r^ CO 4-> •3" LO 00 «3- LO VO 00 CM C A A *l i— i r-H l-H l-H i CM I— 1 «3- i-H *3- LO CTi CT. , T3 i — I 1— t CM *J- VO i-H VO o C r»- <3" CT CO 1 — 1 LO CM o 3 O 00 00 CO CO r^» •at 00 CM -Q CM CM CTi VO CTi i-H r^ CO +J o 00 CM >tf- CM VO CM LO 3 O co co ■sj" *3- «3- <3- LO LO C CD O i- cu Q. CM CTi 00 cn l-H r^ r^ o CM CM e O e <3- o CTi 00 CTi 00 CO CM II CM cn 00 CM «3- «3T o CO i-H CTi CTi i-H VO O CD -t-> CT> CO r~» «^- CM *d- CO CM rC CM vo VO CTi r-» VO •o CO OC i— i VO r~- CT> O o o CM CM JZ i — i l-H i-H f— 1 l-H +J 3 o s- T3 O) ■o E =5 O CTi o I-H CM CO «3- LO VO CL vo r^- r^ r» f>- r^. r^ r-^ E ... cn CTl CTt CTi CTi cn CTi CT O o e cu E o LO o3 S- OJ -i£ S- (O CO ft cu Q. E cu — 1 31 OO Q. O c£ C3 OO CO ID ^—* 1 Q to c/> I— 1 O rv c X OC en Q. t— 1 1— +J 1 *l — _1 en +-•> .a < tO S- •1 — cc en -C rD . — 1 -C X I— OO 03 O ro -t-> to (13 S- 3 o 4-> ce: Q OO a: co o to 1— 1 cm co rv «3- «3- CM tO CM O tO IV rv co ID CO CO 10 CM IX) rv en to 00 O rv rv id id to to co en co coenrvorvcMto>— 1 cMCMOO^rvrvrvio CO CTi CTl rv 1— 1 cm LO "vl" ID CO o 00 00 en co co 00 en co 00 iv CO IV en to CM en T— 1 «3" 00 CO ID 00 .—1 LD en rv 1 — 1 en ID ID r— 1 to t— 1 ID CO to «* en rv en en CO 1— 1 en ID CO CO to en en en ID «a- CM CM CM CM CM CO to iv *d- to *3- to «3- «— 1 "O to co to lO t— 1 tO ■* c IV rv < — 1 CO CO 00 en 3 O CO t— 1 T— 1 CO ID ID CO n rv en ID rv to «=r CO c en CM ID CO rv CO ^3- •S3" <— I CM CM CM CM CO to en < — 1 CM to IV rv rv en cn en en CO «3" ID tO rv rv rv rv en en en en +-> c CO • a s- c a> 1— 1 a. •% 00 CO • c to (T3 •— 1 O r*~ CO 00 +J ro oS OH i- -C cu +-> -X. 5 1_ ro s_ CO C3 «t 1— CO ro 1— 3 o_ £ E C CO Q Z 1—1 OS LU Q_ «t a. to n =) _ LU »— < 3: X h- ■»-> u_ •^ o -Q ■r - z JT o X LU »— ■=> CO a: i— to a <_> 3: O- =c cc i QD1Q A-117 Waterborne movements of logs only occur when convenient access exists to the forest area and the sawmills that ultimately cut the logs into lumber. HANDLING OF LOGS, PULPWOOD LOG AND PULP Pulp is handled in a bulk form. Normally it is loaded into barges by a conveyor belt system and dis- charged by a grab. Open or closed hopper barges may be utilized for the carriage of bulk pulp. Logs and pulpwood logs are handled with specialized equipment and discharged in the same manner. Pulpwood logs may be bound together with straps or chains, whereas logs normally are loaded individually and secured in place. Logs and pulpwood logs may be carried either in a hopner type barge or on a deck barge. LUMBER AND WOOD PRODUCTS GROUP Exhibit XI 1-4 shows movements of lumber and wood prod- ucts by state. Exhibit XI 1-5 shows aggregate movements of the group for the years 1969-1976. The group has experi- enced little growth during this period and represents only about 0.2 percent of the entire tonnage moved in the study region in 1976. A-118 Exhibit XII-4 LUMBER AND WOOD PRODUCTS GROUP MOVEMENTS 1976 (Short Tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate : Al abama 9,214 399,646 309,694 Arkasnas 179 71,807 12,987 Illinois 123,157 20,730 2,141 Indiana 330 2,011 Iowa 941 2,447 Kansas Kentucky 23,127 Louisiana 171,243 124,279 174,625 Minnesota Mississippi 263,940 79,286 278,895 Missouri 42,878 26,733 5,847 Nebraska Ohio 22,992 Oklahoma 1,036 Pennsylvania 2,596 Tennessee 214,756 84,161 93,111 West Virginia Wisconsin 3,377 Total 830,270 860,596 864,313 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-119 oo I— ■z. s: o. »— ( n: oo o lo a: ^— ^ i cs co i—i LO c i— i oo r^ o X h- cr> 1— C_) i— t +■> ro i •<-> •i — Q en S- jD O LO o ■i— C£ cr> sz jz Q_ i— i oo X LU Q O o LU CQ o CU ■t-9 +-> 1/1 c =3 o +-> 3 O c O C t— I CT i— I C\J «sf o cm i— i lo en «3" CM CM LO VO r~- CT CT LO CO r>» CM I— 1 i— i CO LO CO CM LO LO «— H cr in LO CT LO IJD «* LO o cr co lo iJO CO LO LO CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCM LO vo cr> LO CT r^ i— i CO CT cr CM CM LO CM CM 1—1 LO CO cr CT r->. i — i O CO r> A «s *» «N «% n A 00 <£> CM CO CT. r-. lo -3- CO CM CT LO CO CO LO LO i—i ^r CO i-H o CTi CO CO CM •=* i-H CM <£> o CM LO o r— 1 «=r LO CT LO r^. CT iv o «a- CO ^t- LO LO LO *< r» ^ #» •* A •s *t no r-- r^ CO I-H o LO o r-- r^ CT i-H LO 1— < CM LO LO LO LO CT r-» CT CT CO «3- o o CT i — I CO 1— 1 O0 LO LO CM LO CO O «3- LO «3- o CM >— ( CT LO 00 LO LO O LO •3" CO CO no CT CT r—t LO no o CO no CT LO CT o i— i CM CO «sf LO LO r^. r* r-% r»» r~x r-x r» CT CT CT CT CT CT oi c ro O LO e>3 U U s- rs o LO A-120 XIII. SUGAR AND MOLASSES GROUP This group includes only two U.S. Army Corps com- modity classifications: 2061 Sugar 2062 Molasses These commodities were grouped because of their re- lationship to the sweetener industry. Molasses is ac- taully a by-product of sugar production; however, it is included as its production varies directly with that of sugar although demand may not. These two products have also been separated from other agricultural commodities because of their special handling characteristics. Exhibit XIII-1 shows the tonnage of each commodity moved in 1976 and its percentage of the group total. SUGAR AND MOLASSES PRODUCTION Sugar is produced from two basic raw materials, sugar- beets and sugarcane. Sugarbeets are grown in 17 states with the states of California, Idaho, Washington, Minne- sota, Colorado, Michigan, Montana, and North Dakota rep- resenting over 72 percent of the total production. These states with the exception of Minnesota are all outside the Mid-America Region. A-121 Exhibit XIII-1 BREAKDOWN OF SUGAR MOLASSES GROUP BY COMMODITY Commodity Short Tons* Percent* Sugar 509,861 41.1 , Molasses i 730,677 58.9 Total 1,240,539 100.0% *Numbers may not total due to rounding. Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976, Part 2, page 140. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid-America region. A-122 Sugarcane is raised in the states of Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana and Texas. Exhibit XI I 1-2 shows the production of sugarcane for each state in 1975. By contrast, the sugarcane industry is much more concentrated in the United States than is the sugarbeet industry. The four sugarcane states produce 28.5 million tons of sugarcane, whereas the 17 sugarbeet states raised 29.3 million tons in 1975 . Sugarcane and sugarbeets, once harvested, are processed or refined into raw sugar and molasses. This raw sugar is then further refined into the white and brown sugar that is normally consumed or used in food processing. The secondary refining also produces molasses as a by-product which is used for human consumption directly or in food processing and cattle feed. In 1975 the United States met 62 percent of its demand for sugar through domestic production. The balance was imported from territories or foreign countries. Exhibit XIII-3 shows both beet and cane sugar refinery locations in the United States. It is apparent from the exhibit that the sugarbeet refining capacity has little impact on the Mid-America Region. It is the imports of raw sugar and molasses that give rise to the greatest volume of inland waterway movements of this group. Agricultural Statistics, 1976 , U.S. Department of Agriculture, page 74. A-123 Exhibit XIII-2 UNITED STATES SUGARCANE PRODUCTION, 1975* Thousands of State Short Tons Percent Florida 9,860 34.6 Hawaii 10,403 36.5 Louisiana 7,074 24.8 Texas Total 1,162 4.1 28,499 100.0 *Source: Agricultural Statistics, 1976 , U.S. Department of Agriculture, page 78. A-124 \ -. O UJ o +j LU CT> s_ •^ oo to o JQ oo O^ .c •r* •a: T— 1 GO -C _j X o LU o < cz> I/O i—l o^ r*. r-> i—) CM to CM o «3- LO r-. o CO «3" O ^— CO LO O^ r^. r^. 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PRIMARY FERROUS AND NONFERROUS METALS PRODUCTS GROUP The Primary Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Group in- cludes the following U.S. Army Corps of Engineers classi- fications: 3311 Pig Iron 3314 Iron and Steel Ingots and Other Primary Forms 3315 Iron and Steel Bars, Rods, Shapes, Sections, including Sheet Piling 3316 Iron and Steel Plates and Sheets 3317 Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube 3318 Ferroalloys 3319 Primary Iron and Steel Products, NEC 3321 Primary Nonferrous Products, except Copper, Lead, Zinc, andAluminum 3322 Copper 3323 Lead and Zinc 3324 Aluminum These commodities were grouped due to their direct re- lationship to the primary metals industry and because of their similar handling and transportation requirements. These commodities are all matched with MarAd's terminal classification for the handling of primary metal forms. Exhibit XIV-1 shows the tonnage of each commodity that moved on the inland waterways of the Mid-America Region in A-130 Exhibit XIV-1 BREAKDOWN OF THE PRIMARY FERROUS AND NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS GROUP BY COMMODITY Commodity Short Tons* * Percent* Pig Iron 76,068 1.2 Iron and Steel Ingots 659,262 10.4 Iron and Steel Bars, Rods, Shapes, Sections 1,052,283 16.6 Iron and Steel Plates and Sheet 2,554,640 40.3 Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube 748,008 11.8 Ferro-alloys 735,330 11.6 Primary Iron and Steel Products, NEC (except copper, lead, zinc, aluminum) 3,389 Copper 88,746 1.4 Lead and Zinc 171,154 2.7 Aluminum 95,085 1.5 Total 6,339,057 100.0% *Numbers may not total due to rounding. Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976, Part 2, page 140. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid-America region. A-131 1976, and the percentage that the tonnages represent of the entire group. It should be noted that the primary forms of iron and steel represent in excess of 94 per- cent of the total group. The nonferrous metals will not be discussed further as they represent such a very small portion of the total movement. IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION AND MARKETS The U.S. production of iron and steel is concentrated in the Ohio River Valley area and along the southern shores of the Great Lakes. Other areas produce steel, but the regions cited account for 78 percent of the total U.S. production of raw steel. Exhibit XIV-2 shows production of raw steel by state. The United States imports substantial volumes of steel mill products each year. These imports give rise to much of the inland waterway traffic of ferrous metal products. Likewise, the U.S. exports primary forms of steel but in much smaller volume. In 1976 the U.S. imported 17.3 million tons of steel mill products while exporting only 2.7 million tons . HANDLING OF FERROUS AND NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS As indicated by the commodity titles included in this group, these products are handled in several different shapes Source: Annual Statistic Report, American Iron and Steel Institute, 1976, pages 38, 42. A-132 Exhibit XIV-2 RAW STEEL PRODUCTION BY STATE 1976* (thousands of short tons) Tons Percent of Total 4,799 3.7 26,696 20.9 State New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island, Connecticut, New 5 8 7 4 g Jersey, Delaware, & Maryland ' West Virginia, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South 5,403 4.2 Carolina, & Louisiana Kentucky Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas Ohio Indiana Illinois Michigan Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, 5 Q 7g ^ q Texas, Nebraska & Iowa * Arizona, Colorado, Utah, 4 ^\ 3 5 Washington, Oregon & Hawaii ' California 3,398 2.7 Total 128,000 100.0% 2,206 1.7 4,109 3.2 22,419 17.5 22,178 17.3 11,030 8.6 10,382 8.1 ♦Source: Annual Statistic Report, American Iron and Steel Institute, 1976, page 55. A-133 and sizes. The loading and discharging of barges there- fore require different types of cargo handling apparatii for the different commodities. Most transfers are made with cranes or booms with specialized slings attached de- pending on the size and shape of the commodity being han- dled. Pipes, tubes, bars, angles, shapes and rods are often strapped together in bundles thereby handling several for each cycle of the crane. Likewise, ingots may also be strapped, however, the gear used will normally vary sub- stantially from that used for the other shapes. Closed hopper barges are used to transport these com- modities. No special care is required other than main- taining the products in a dry condition as the iron and steel oxidizes with prolonged contact with moisture. MOVEMENTS OF THE FERROUS AND NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS GROUP Exhibit XIV-3 shows the shipments and receipts of the ferrous and nonferrous metals group by state for 1976. The largest volume of shipments originates in Louisiana. These shipments are almost exclusively imports of steel products which are transferred to barges for transshipment to other areas within the region. The steel producing areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, and Alabama also shipped in excess of 100,000 tons of steel via the waterways. Over 500,000 tons of steel were also shipped from Illinois, however, much of this was transshipments of foreign imports to barges for inland transit. Exhibit XIV-4 shows the aggregate tons of ferrous and nonferrous metal products shipped for the years 1969-1976. A-134 There has been virtually no growth in the total amount of shipments and receipts, however, this is partially due to the sharp decline in intrastate movements as the inter- state movements have increased slightly over the period. A-135 Exhibit XIV- 3 PRIMARY FERROUS AND NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS GROUP MOVEMENTS 1976 (Short Tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 194,726 133,765 47,161 Arkansas 127,261 4,673 Illinois 904,890 565,480 54,613 Indiana 134,702 14,550 2,247 Iowa 21,697 5,367 Kansas Kentucky 333,973 184,758 Louisiana 589,755 2,067,527 442,569 Minnesota 139,245 1,800 Mississippi 106,711 14,720 824 Missouri 404,627 210,731 4,398 Nebraska 25,732 Ohio 400,700 291,828 12,022 Oklahoma 118,834 1,265 564 Pennsylvania 274,528 1,132,290 50,746 Tennessee 735,973 26,961 2,354 West Virginia 332,592 301,153 9,919 Wisconsin 2,245 Total — — - - 4,848,191 4,956,868 627,417 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-136 I «3- I X 4-> •r— sz X OO u~> ZD I— o -z. LU Q_ on ^-^ O- z o co o H- cc o a: zd UJ Q u. o >- D_ O t— lo «— t CM CO «3- CO «d- CM O CO «3- O LO i—» CO f— t O O r-. en r^ LO «3" CsJ 1— 1 r— 1 i-H CM O r O CD T— 1 CO CO LO en en en p^ +-> O CO CO cn en «3- r— 1 fO «3" CM r»» cn CO LO «3" +-> CO CM CXi LO i—t p-» p^ «— 1 p»» ra en CO t— 1 CO i— i p^ CO CM S- CO CD «3" CO LO en CO co -M «« n «% m A c .— i T~H T— 1 r-4 I— 1 1— 1 -a c 3 1— t LO CO CM >=d- en r*. CO CO CO LO r^. en CM CO LO O r-» O CM CO 00 CO O .a +-> IT) CO CM p-. O r-« co CM O CO O O en ■=3- LO CO C\J en CM CM en O en A n #» 01 «* «\ 01 «% «vf un 1— r»» X C_) en ZD r— 1 +j Q I •1— O CTi -O ct: LO •r— o_ CX> -C 1— t X _i UJ 1— I— 1 — 1 ret +-> lo CT> LO r~» cr> ro 00 O LO "^ t— 1 r-^ CXl CX> I— CVJ r-* LO 00 r- LO 10 r^ cu 4-> fO +-> to ro t. +-> e Z5 o -Q +-> 3 o LOCOLOLOCOCOCOCVI MCMCTt0OlflNCJ i-H CT> 1— 1 1— 1 t— 1 <3- 1—4 O c— 1 O O CVJ COCVJCOLOLOCOLOLO COCOCOCOCOCOLOO co o «a- CTi LO O LO CO CO 1— I CT> CT> «^- O O CVJ LO ^" 1— I «5f CO CVJ CVJ CO -0 c O XI C t— » 1— 1 CO LO . — 1 CVJ CO O 1— \ 1— 1 LO CVJ CO LO CO CVJ CVJ CO CT> lo LO CVJ CO CO LO CO LO CVJ LO <— 1 CVJ CO CVJ CO CO CVJ en LO cr> o cr> en CVJ CTi CO CTi «3- en LO CTi LO cr> o CO c ro o 00 o3 S- a» %- ro CQ cu Q. E cu cu o i_ o CO A-143 XVI, COMMODITY GROUP 14 SCRAP METALS GROUP The Scrap Metals Group includes the following two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commodity classifications. 4011 Iron and Steel Scrap 4012 Nonferrous Metal Scrap These commodities were grouped due to their common relationship to the primary metals industry. Both of these commodities are used as a raw material input to the steel and the nonferrous metals industries. In addition to their demand characteristics, the commodities have similar handling characteristics and are handled at terminals classified by MarAd as type V terminals which are designated as handling scrap metals. Exhibit XVT-1 shows the tons of each commodity moved on the inland waterways in the Mid-America Region in 1976 and the percent of the total group that these tons represent. As can be seen, scrap iron and steel represent over 91 per- cent of the total tonnage moved. Scrap Metals Handling Scrap metals do not require any special handling and normally older barges are used to carry these commodities. In the case of scrap steel, much of it consists of junked automobiles which have been crushed into a com- pact cube. Normally the engine blocks and transmissions A-144 Exhibit XVI- 1 BREAKDOWN OF SCRAP METALS GROUP BY COMMODITY TONS AND PERCENT Commodity Iron and Steel Scrap Nonferrous Metal Scrap Short Tons* 1,425,930 132,463 Percent* 91.5 8.5 Total 1,558,394 100.0% *Numbers may not total due to rounding. Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976, Part 2, page 140. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid-America region. A-145 have been removed from the autos before crushing. Scrapped automobiles tend to be dirty in the sense that they are often covered with oil and grease, which often precludes the barges employed in scrap operations from being utilized for cleaner trades. Normally open hopper barges are utilized for the carriage of scrap metals. Iron and steel scrap is loaded and discharged with cranes which utilize electric magnets for picking up the cargo. The nonferrous metals by contrast are normally handled by a grab as they are not attracted by magnets. Scrap Metals Group Movements Exhibit XVI-2 shows the movements of scrap metals in 1976 by state. It is apparent from this exhibit that much of the scrap metals are being shipped out of the Mid-America region as evidenced by the imbalance between total inbound and total outbound tonnages. These out of Mid-America region shipments are the result of large ship- ments of iron and steel scrap from Alabama and the Mis- sissippi River to Texas via the Gulf Intracoastal waterway. Other large volume movements of scrap metals occur in the states of Pennsylvania and Illinois (East St. Louis). These movements result as a direct demand of the steel industry for scrap and as a result of export demand. The Ports of New Orleans and Mobile together export about 200,000 tons of scrap steel per year. The major movements of the nonferrous metal scrap occur on the Ohio, Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers. A-146 Exhibit XVI-3 shows the aggregate movements of scrap metals for the years 1969-1976. Although the movements increased in volume by 75 percent over the seven year period, it cannot be said that the growth was steady. The volume of movements has been highly variable over this period and one of the lowest volume years was 1975, an economic recession year. The scrap metals group accounts for about 0.4 per- cent of the total tonnage moved on the inland waterways in the year 1976 . A-147 Exhibit XVI-2 SCRAP METALS GROUP MOVEMENTS 1976 (Short Tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 13,167 412,155 24,024 Arkansas ~23,563 Illinois 223,576 114,543 96,425 Indiana 47,051 Iowa 3,006 25,554 Kansas Kentucky 31,051 110,825 Loui siena 87,158 68,092 38,684 Minnesota 7,323 17,127 1,290 Mississippi 2,660 92,416 Missouri 7,764 111,717 Nebraska 1,657 Ohio 19,396 101,461 2,608 Oklahoma Pennsylvania 256,208 31,426 1,944 Tennessee 29,080 155,052 West Virginia 53,009 38,095 2,580 Wisconsin 4,582 Total 733,398 1,355,316 167,555 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-148 o Lf> r-H CO m w co r>% cvj oo <3- CO en o CTi CM o LT) «3- o Cn o uo <«o CT> CO CT) 1— 1 LO iJD o LO CVJ «d- r— 1 CO uo (/) s- +-> c ID CO 00 00 CO CO CO CVJ IT) CVJ LT) CVJ CTi en «3- CVJ f— ( CO CVJ i—i o CO i — I f-H 00 CT> O O CVJ CVJ i— < i—i CO oo o CD 1- oo x UJ o. 00 en i—i i cn to C o s- o .c oo ■o c o 4-> o CVJ CVJ CO O r-H <*■ O JDcor-»cvjLn u o -Q c C0<-HCO00CT>COCOC0 >.coi-nro ijDLnoocvjcvjoOr-ico cu c ro O oo o3 S- s- CQ 0) Q. E cu to r^ cn en CTi cvj en oo cr. CT> LO en en O) o s- 3 O oo A-149 XVII. COMMODITY GROUP 15 CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS GROUP The Construction Materials Group includes the following U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commodity classifications: 1411 Limestone Flux and Calcareous Stone 1412 Building Stone, Unworked 1442 Sand, Gravel, Crushed Stone 2951 Asphalt Building Materials 3241 Cement 3271 Lime 3281 Cut Stone and Stone Products These commodities were grouped due to their common re- lationship to the construction industry and the demand for construction materials. Construction as used here is to be construed as including highway projects and other public works as well as the housing industry. The commodities also have similar handling characteristics inasmuch as they are all moved in a dry bulk form. Exhibit XVII-1 shows the tons of each commodity moved on the inland waterways in the Mid-America region in 1976 and the percent of the total group these tons represent . Two commodities, sand and gravel and cement, account for almost 95 percent of the total construction materials group moved in 1976. A-150 Exhibit XVII- 1 BREAKDOWN OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS GROUP BY COMMODITY TONS AND PERCENT *Numbers not may total due to rounding. Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976, Part 2, page 140. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid- America region. Commodity Short Tons* Percent* Limestone 1,538,666 3.6 Building Stone 0.0 Sand, Gravel, Crushed Rock 36,799,769 86.1 Asphalt Building Materials 0.0 Cement 3,347,480 8.3 Lime 854,815 2.0 ! Cut Stone 0.0 Total 42,740,731 100.0% A-151 The Sand and Gravel Industry The primary consumer of sand and gravel is the con- struction industry. In 1974 the construction industry consumed 97 percent of the total tonnage of sand and gravel produced in the United States. Production of sand and gravel is a direct function of demand for the product and can vary drastically from year to year. A case in point is the construction of the Trans- Alaska Pipeline which created a tremendous demand for sand and gravel. Production in Alaska skyrocketed from 15 million tons in 1973 to 118 million tons in 1974 and can be expected to drop back close to its 1973 level upon completion of the proj ect . 2 Given the demand chasing characteristic of production, it is difficult to project future production volumes without a thorough knowledge of construction projects planned in the future. Reserves of sand and gravel would seem to be virtually unlimited given the vast acreage of the United States. How- i ever, reserves in some local areas are already becoming constrained due to suburban sprawl, rising land costs, and resistance from environmentalists. The constrained reserves situation can be expected to worsen in the future. Minerals Yearbook , 1974, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1147. 2 Ibid. A-152 The result of the limited reserves in certain geo- graphic areas will be to increase the distances that sand and gravel will be transported in the future. Vast re- serves of sand and gravel exist , but can be located in areas where the transportation from production site to construction site would be uneconomical as compared to local reserves which demand a higher price. This trend is demonstrated by the 7 perecent increase in value of production between 1973 and 1974 despite a one percent decline in demand. Every state in the U.S. produced sand and gravel in 1974, however, the eight states of Alaska, California, Michigan, Illinois, Texas, Ohio, Minnesota and New York accounted for 477 million tons representing 49 percent of the total U.S. production. See Exhibit XVII-2 for production by state. U.S. production of sand and gravel totaled 979 million tons in 1974. This figure was down slightly from 1973 pro- duction. Future production of sand and gravel is difficult to project but it is certain that the cost of sand and gravel will continue to climb due to the rising land costs, rising fuel and labor costs and the longer hauls involved. The Cement Industry The cement industry can be characterized as a homogenous, single product business. The industry is very regional in nature due to the relatively low value of the product. This Minerals Yearbook, 1974 , U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1153. A-153 Table XVII-2 SAND AND GRAVEL PRODUCTION BY STATE 1974* (thousands of short tons) Quantity Percent Alaska 117,752 12.0 California 105,191 10.7 Michigan 60,027 6.1 Illinois 42,705 4.4 Texas 42,466 4.4 Ohio 41,353 4.2 Minnesota 36,720 3.8 New York 30,614 3.1 Wisconsin 28,850 2.9 Indiana 26,077 2.7 Florida 24,372 2.5 Colorado 27,793 2.8 Arizona 23,417 2.4 Washington 22,842 2.3 Oregon 18,558 1.9 Others 330,017 33.8 Total 978,754 100.0% ^Minerals Yearbook 1974, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1153, A-154 low value renders long distance shipments non-competitive unless there is a shortage of product in the destination region causing prices to rise. The most commonly used cement is Portland cement, a hydrolic (water activated) variety. Portland cement is a nonmetallic mineral, composed primarily of limestone, clay or shale and gypsum. Cement production can be of the dry or wet process with the primary difference being that the wet process utilizes water to form a slurry of the raw materials for ease of handling within the plant. The trade-off in the wet process is the higher energy costs required in the kiln process. The cement production process begins by crushing the raw materials rock. This crushed mixture is then either mixed with water to form a slurry (wet process) or handled in a dry powder state and is put into a large cylindrical, rotating kiln where it is heated to 1500 degrees centigrade to drive off the gases in the mixture. The cement clinkers that remain are small marble-sized pellets. These clinkers are then ground and mixed with gypsum to form fine powder 5 substance, cement. Cement is a raw material input to the production of concrete. As such, cement by itself has no end use. The demand for cement varies directly with the demand for 4 Prices and Capacity Expansion in the Cement Industry , Staff Report, March 1977, p. 4. 5 Ibid. A-155 concrete, which in turn varies directly with construction spending. Exhibit XVII-3 shows the consumption of cement by con- struction sector for the years 1974 and 1975. The residential and commercial sectors were the largest users of cement , however, the projects using the most cement, i.e., dams, bridges, highways, etc., are found in the nonbuilding and transportation sectors. These sectors are characterized by a relatively small number of large projects whereas the residential and commercial sectors are characterized by a large number of relatively small projects. Given the characteristics of demand for the major sectors it would be expected that the nonbuilding and transportation sectors would create the greatest fluctuations in demand as the cancellation of a few projects would reduce demand by a great amount. However, from Exhibit XVII-3, it is evident that this was not the case between 1974 and 1975 as the residential and commercial sectors' demand fell by 11.8 million tons whereas the nonbuilding and transportation sectors' demand actually rose 1.9 million tons while the total demand fell 12.1 million tons. This phenomenon was caused by the near collapse of the private sector real property industry in 1974-1975 and the fact that the large public works projects such as in the nonbuilding and trans- portation sectors, occur over a longer time horizon. Changes in the public sector construction spending, occur more gradually than in the private sector. 6 Ibid A-156 Exhibit XVII-3 CEMENT CONSUMPTION BY CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 1974 and 1975 Sector 1974 1975 Short Tons % of Total Short Tons % of Total ! Residential 18.5 23.4 14.9 22.2 Industrial/ Commercial 21.0 26.5 12.8 19.1 Nonbuilding 14.5 18.3 15.9 23.7 Transportation 12.5 15.8 13.0 19.4 Public Buildings 7.7 9.7 7.3 10.9 Miscellaneous 4.9 6.2 3.1 4.6 Domestic Shipments 73.4 92.8 63.9 95.4 Foreign Imports 5.7 7.2 3.1 4.6 Total Consumption 79.1 100.0 67.0 100.0 Source: Prices and Capacity Expansion in the Cement Industry , Staff Report March 1977, p. 8. A-157 Cement plant capacity is located close to sources of limestone, the major raw material input on the basis of volume. If a plant's source of raw material is depleted and raw materials have to be shipped substantial distances, the transportation costs will render the plant uneconomical. In the 1960's advances in technology and processes in- creased the economies of scale in production. This triggered a trend toward larger cement plants. Exhibit XVI 1-4 shows the trend toward larger plants for the period of 1948-1973. Simultaneously with the plant size trend, a trend to bulk shipments was occurring. During the 1947-1973 period bulk shipments increased from less than 40 percent of total shipments to in excess of 90 percent. These trends combined with new technologies in handling methods created opportunities for some companies to expand their markets by effectively locating new or expanding existing plants on the inland waterways system and con- structing distribution facilities in market areas much further from their production facilities than was previously economically feasible. An example of this strategy is the Dundee Cement Co. which distributed cement from its Clarks- ville, Missouri plant (1.4 million tons annual capacity) 7 in 1968 to points as distant as Minneapolis and Houston. Higher raw material prices on the Gulf of Mexico coast added to the competitive advantage of this Missouri located plant. 7 Transportation of Mineral Commodities on the Inland Waterways of the South Central States , U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 24. A-158 co co l— cu > < o C X _J u_ CU h- u +J oc >- S- •r™ O h- o > co CO I o o o vo o o • • 1 * OJ t— i A o r^ i o -a «3- -o CM CM i ^- c LO C I «3 CO (O i i I o o 1 o o 1 o o ca o o I o o CT> o t— i LO O CO LO I r% in 1— 1 1— 1 i—i •» A • • 1 wo r-l «3" 00 LO i irxt O LO 1 NOi P-» CO 1 1 -— o o 1 o o CO O O o o ^r> •3- COO r-» i—i O LO • • Q A « C\J C\J *t * 1— t LO -t-> «3- CM CO •—! CM CM — -LO LO •-H O lo r-«. lo r^ >> +J •r" o fO Q. 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CO t— i t— i CM CM f— 1 CM «— 1 T— i cn LO cn o T-l en cn CM cn oo cn cn LO cn LO cn CD c (D O OO oS s_ CO s_ CQ ex E CD CD O S- O OO A-164 XVIII. COMMODITY GROUP 16 - MINING PRODUCTS GROUP NEC The Mining Products, NEC group includes the following U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commodity classifications: 0931 Marine Shells, Unmanufactured 1451 Clay, Ceramic, and Refractory Materials 1491 Salt 1492 Sulfur, Dry 1494 Gypsum, Crude Plaster 1499 Nonmetal.lic Minerals, except Fuels, NEC These commodities were grouped primarily due to their relationship to the mining sector and because of their similar handling characteristics. This group has been matched with the MarAd terminal classification G which is designated as terminals designed for the handling of non- specialized bulk commodities. Exhibit XVIII-1 shows the tons of each commodity moved on the inland waterways of the Mid-America Region in 1976 and the percent of the total group that those tons repre- sented. It is apparent from this exhibit that two commodity classifications account for almost 95 percent of the entire group. Salt tonnage is included under the Nonmetallic Minerals, NEC commodity classification to avoid disclosing the exact tonnage moved. Although the exact tonnage of salt moved is not known, it is estimated that as much as 90-95 percent of the Nonmetallic Minerals, NEC group is comprised of salt. This would mean that the estimated tonnage of salt moved in 1976 ranged between 5.3 and 5.6 million tons. A-165 Exhibit XVIII-1 BREAKDOWN OF THE MINING PRODUCTS, NEC GROUP BY COMMODITY TONS AND PERCENT Commod i ty Short Tons* Percent* Marine Shells 8,923,948 56.8 Clay, Ceramic, Refractory Materials 832,692 5.3 Salt ** ** Sulphur 3,333 -- Gypsum and Crude Plaster 0.0 Non-metallic Minerals, NEC Total 5,923,948 37.9 15,711,176 100.0% *Figures may not total due to rounding Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1976, Part 2 pages 32 and 33. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid-America region. **Actual salt tonnages are withheld by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to avoid disclosure of individual company operations. The tonnage for salt is included in the Non-metallic Minerals, NEC classification. Although it is impossible to determine the exact percent of the Non-metallic Minerals, NEC group that represents salt, it is estimated that approximately 90 percent of that group is salt. This implies that 5.3 million tons of salt were moved on the inland waterways of the study area. A-166 Marine Shells Marine shells are mined primarily in the Gulf Coastal area by dredging. They are used as an aggregate for the construction industry and as a source of limestone for the cement industry. As an aggregate, one of the main uses is as road ballast or fill. Marine shells are very low in value and consequently are not transported long distances." The greatest movements of marine shells occur in Louisiana for two reasons. One, shells are available in substantial quantities in the coastal area of Louisiana. Secondly, Louisiana does not have reserves of sand and gravel for use as a construction aggregate and the shells are a natural and economic sub- stitute. As a result, large volumes of marine shells move in Louisiana intrastate traffic and some interstate move- ments also occur with Alabama and Texas. Exhibit XVIII-2 which shows the tonnages of Mining Products, NEC moving on the inland waterways, reflects the large volume of the marine shell business in Louisiana. Other sizable movements of marine shells occur in the coastal area of Alabama. Salt Salt is produced via a variety of production processes ranging from rock salt mining to methods of evaporating brine which is a salt solution. Reserves of salt in the United States and the world are virtually unlimited when the oceans are considered as a source. The major reserves of salt in the United States are the Gulf Coast Embankment located beneath the Gulf of Mexico and the states of Louisiana and Texas- the Salina Formation located around A-167 Exhibit XVIII-2 MINING PRODUCTS, NEC GROUP MOVEMENTS 1976 (short tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 555,050 286,675 1,175,838 Arkansas 5,474 2,855 Illinois 1,083,798 57,915 72,841 Indiana 125,223 Iowa 264,238 Kansas Kentucky 548,288 43,147 1,500 Louisiana 131,305 6,306,392 7,211,140 Minnesota 334,668 Mississippi 231,641 Missouri 350,107 12,869 Nebraska 74,517 Ohio 518,797 2,833 9,773 Oklahoma Pennsylvania 371,112 5,684 17,600 Tennessee 212,311 1,420 West Virginia 248,996 Wisconsin Total 111,239 5,166,764 6,719,790 8,488,692 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-168 Lake Erie; the Williston Basin located beneath the states of Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota; and the Permian Basin located beneath the states of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado. Exhibit XVIII-3 shows the largest salt producing states and the percent of total U.S. production accounted for by these states. Total U.S. production in 1974 amounted to 46.423 million tons. As stated in the foot note of Exhibit XVIII-1, tonnages of salt moving in domestic traffic of the United States are not released; however, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers does release figures on ton-miles by commodity. In 1976 5.3 billion ton-miles of salt traffic occurred on the in- ternal waterways. If an assumption is made that the average movement was 1,000 miles in length, then approximately 5.3 million tons of salt moved on the internal waterways. This figure is in agreement with the previous assumption that 90 percent of the Non-metallic Minerals, NEC (which included salt) commodity classification was composed of salt. The chemical industry is by far the largest consumer of salt. Salt usage for highway deicing and by feed dealers are additional uses of the commodity. Exhibit XVIII-4 shows the distribution of salt sales by types of end-use for the year 1974. Salt consumption by state and shipments by destination data is spotty due to the extent of withheld information necessary to avoid the disclosure of proprietary information. However, the largest receiving states of evaporated and rock salt are shown in Exhibit XVIII-5. A-169 Exhibit XVIII-3 LARGEST SALT PRODUCING STATES* (thousands of short tons) State Tons Percent of Total Louisiana 13,463 29.0 Texas 11,142 24.0 New York 6,499 14.0 Ohio 5,107 11.0 Michigan 4,642 10.0 Other Total 5,570 12.0 46,423 100.0 *Source: Minerals Yearbook , 1974, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1132. A-170 Exhibit XVI 1 1-4 SALT SALES BY TYPE OF USER 1974 1 Tons* Percent of Total Chlorine 23,080 49.4 Soda Ash 4,563 9.7 All Other Chemicals 1,734 3.7 Highway Use 7,757 16.6 Feed Dealers 1,512 3.2 Grocery Stores 1,252 2.7 Water Softener(s) 835 1.8 Other Food Processing 614 1.3 All Other Uses Total 5,344 11.4 46,691 100.0 ♦Numbers may not total due to rounding. Source: Minerals Yearbook , 1974, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1134. A-171 Exhibit XVIII-5 LARGEST RECEIVERS OF EVAPORATED AND ROCK SALT 1974 (thousands of short tons) State Tons New York 2,166 Ohio 1,861 Pennsylvania 1,313 Illinois 1,445 New Jersey 900 Indiana 759 Washington 745 Source: Minerals Yearbook, 1974, U.S. Department of the Interior, p. 1132. A-172 The general pattern of movements of salt is from the lower Mississippi (Louisiana) to upriver points in almost every state of the Mid-America region. Only Kansas and Oklahoma do not receive salt shipments due to in-state production or perhaps because of their proximity to the Texas production area. Not all of these receipts originate from the Louisiana area but the vast majority do. Only a limited volume of salt is shipped interstate via water transportation in the upper Mid-America region. These movement patterns are evident from Exhibit XVIII-2 which shows both inbound and outbound movements of the Mining Products, NEC group. Given that about 90 percent of the Non-metallic Minerals, NEC group is composed of salt and that virtually no marine shells are moved on the upper reaches of the Mississippi River System, then the movements into the upper Mississippi River system states are composed of salt from Louisiana. Handling of the Minin g Products, NEC Group Marine shells and clay are both transported in open hopper type barges and do not require any special care in transit. Normally these commodities are discharged by clamshell type grabs. Loading of clay may take the form of a conveyor belt or other mechanical means. Marine shells are normally loaded directly from a dredging vessel into the barge that will transport the shells to their final destination or to a waterside stockpile close to the con- struction site where the shells will be utilized. A-173 Salt is normally loaded with a conveyor system specialized for the loading of salt. Salt may be trans- ported in either open or closed hopper barges and requires no special care in transit. Terminals receiving salt may have specialized discharging equipment if volumes are suf- ficiently large to warrant the investment, otherwise, general bulk material handling equipment such as cranes with clamshell grabs. Mining Products, NEC Movements The general pattern of movements for the two major commodities have already been discussed. The volume of movements of the Mining Products, NEC group are shown in Exhibit XVIII-6 for the years 1969-1976. The group has experienced a slight decline in volume over this period, however, the trend has been close to flat. The group represents 3.5 percent of the total tonnage moved on the inland waterways of the Mid-America region in 1976. A-174 co zn CO CO 1 Q_ t—t O i—* cc CO t-H o r-~ > cn X o LU 1—1 +J 2: o> •^ CO jD co CTl »r— 1— 1— t -C X r> LxJ Q O e: ro «3- CM CM CM r-^ r-^ CD t-H CO CO CM CO CO CM *3- r _ O Lf) CO if) CO CTi Lf) CM A3 +J I— ^r CO CO CM Lf) ro O if) CM CM O CTl 1— 1 r»- p»» >3- CO CM Lf) CO ro l-H CM CM CM 1— 1 ro i-H O 00 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM . CM +-> CTi CNJ «=3- ro CO ro «a- CTi (O If) O r«» if) CTi Lf) i^~ CO +J CO Lf) r~. CM CT> 1— 1 CO (O CO r-^ ro r^. Lf) ro cr> CO s- If) r— 1 CO 1 — 1 CM CO "3- 4-> C 00 CT> cr> CTl i—i CTl 00 l-H i—l r— 1 c 3 CO CO «— 1 ^r «* Lf) CO CTi CO ro If) CO r^ CTi O CTi ro CO 1— H 1— 1 CM r»» O 3 •3- CM ro cr> CO CO r^ CTi C\J Lf) CM CO -=3" cn ro i—) O r^. CM cr> LT) ro ro r-- O CO r^ CO CO CO CO CO CO «3- >=d- «3- i-H CM -51- -0 CM CM «3- if) CM CM co c ro CO CO ro r»» ro Lf) r^ =j «3- CO CM ro co r-^ l—l CD JD co r^. If) r-« CO CO CD C < — 1 ^r Lf) Lf) CO «* ro < — 1 t— 1 Lf) Lf) Lf) Lf) «=i- Lf) Lf) Lf) CTi 1 — 1 CM ro <3" Lf) CO CO r^. r-» r-. r^ r^~ r>~ |-» cr> 01 ct> cr> CTi CTl cn cTi CD C cj s- rs o CO A-175 XIX. COMMODITY GROUP 17 NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURES, NEC INCLUDING PROCESSED FOODS The Non-Durable Manufactures, NEC Group includes the following U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commodity classi- fications : 2011 Meat; Fresh, Chilled, Frozen 2012 Meat and Meat Products, Prepared or Pre- served, including Canned Metal Products 2014 Tallow, Animal Fats and Oils 2015 Animal By-products, NEC 2021 Dairy Products, except Dried Milk and Cream 2022 Dried Milk and Cream 2031 Fish and Fish Products (including Shell- fish), Prepared and Preserved 2034 Vegetables and Preparations, Preserved, Canned, and Otherwise 2039 Fruits and Fruit or Vegetable Juices, Canned 2081 Alcoholic Beverages 2091 Vegetable Oils, All Grades; Margarine and Shortening 2092 Animal Oils and Fats, NEC including Marine 2094 Groceries 2095 Ice 2099 Miscellaneous Food Products 2111 Tobacco Manufactures 2211 Basic Textile Products, except Textile Fibers 2212 Textile Fibers, NEC A-176 2311 Apparel and Other Finished Textile Products, including Knits 2621 Newsprint (standard) 2631 Paper and Paperboard 2691 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Products, NEC 2711 Printed Matter 2831 Drugs 2841 Soap, Detergents, and Cleaning Preparations; Perfumes, Cosmetics and Other Toilet Preparations . 3111 Leather and Leather Products These commodities were grouped primarily because of their handling and care requirements. All products in this group have had value added due to processing and/or packaging which results in a relatively high per ton value. Only the vegetable and animal fats and oils are shipped in bulk (liquid). All other commodities are shipped in breakbulk form. Because of the breakbulk nature of the group, these commodities have been matched with the MarAd terminal classi- fication for general cargos. Exhibit XIX-1 . shows the tonnage of each commodity within the group moved on the internal waterways in 1976 and the percentage of the total group represented by those tons. Animal and Vegetable oils and fats including tallow account for 66 percent of the total tonnage moved within this group. Paper, paperboard, and products thereof ac- count for another 31 percent of the group. All other com- modities constitute only 3 percent (about 66,000 tons). A-177 Exhibit XIX-1 BREAKDOWN OF THE NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURES, NEC GROUP BY COMMODITY, TONS AND PERCENT Commodity Short Tons* Percent* Meat 0.0 Meat Products 8,856 0.4 Tallow, Animal Fats and Oils 201,489 9.1 Animal By-products, NEC 0.0 Dairy Products 0.0 Dried Milk and Cream 90 Fish and Fish Products 0.0 Shellfish Products 0.0 Canned Vegetables 149 Frozen Fruits 0.0 Canned Fruits CO Fruit/Vegetable Juices, Canned 0.0 Alcoholic Beverages 11,070 0.5 Non-alcoholic Beverages 0.0 Vegetable Oils 1,169,084 52.8 Animal Oils and Fats 90,781 4.1 Roasted Coffee 0.0 Groceries 47 -- Ice 11,070 0.5 Misc. Food Products 11,070 0.5 Tobacco Manufactures 0.0 Basic Textile Products 19,927 0.9 Textile Fibers, NEC 0.0 Apparel & Other Finished Textile Prod. 0.0 Newsprint 6,642 0.3 Paper and Paperboard 628,825 28.4 Pulp, Paper, Paperboard Products, NEC 55,354 2.5 Printed Matter 0.0 Drugs C 0.0 Soap, Detergents, & Cleaning Preparations 0.0 Leather & Leather Products 491 -- Total 2,214,175 100.0% *Numbers may not total due to rounding. Percentages were obtained from Waterborne Commerce of the United States , 1975, Part 2, page 140. The tonnages were adjusted to reflect the boundaries of the 17 state Mid- America Region. A-178 Vegetable Oils and Animal Fats and Oils The largest volume commodity in this group is vegetable oils which accounts for approximately 1.2 million tons. The major commodity within this commodity classification is soy- bean oil. Soybean oil is produced by crushing soybeans and separating the oil from the fiber of meal (soybean meal was discussed in Section XI - Grain Mill and Agricultural Products, NEC). Soybean oil is used primarily by the food processing sector. The largest single commodity classification within this group is the Vegetable Oils. Exhibit XIX-2 shows the total U.S. production of vegetable oils. Soybean oil accounts for slightly over 80 percent of the total production. Exhibit XIX-3 shows U.S. exports of vegetable oils. Again, soybean oil accounts for almost 85 percent of the total exports. In terms of inland waterway movements of vegetable oils, soybean oil is unquestionably the largest volume commodity as the production areas are accessible to the inland water- ways. This is not the case for linseed oil (produced from crushing flax seed) which is produced in the Northern Great Plains states and peanut oil which is produced pri- marily in the southeastern states of Georgia, North Carolina and Alabama. Soybean oil movements occur as a result of demand created by exports and by the food processing sector. The movements between the food processors and the soybean crushing plants are accommodated by transportation modes other than water, by and large. The largest volume of move- ment are downbound flows from the states of Illinois, A-179 Exhibit XIX-2 U.S. PRODUCTION OF VEGETABLE OILS* 1974 Commod i ty Short Tons Percent Cottonseed Oil 673,500 14.8 Linseed Oil 123,500 2.7 Peanut Oil 94,183 2.1 Soybean Oil Total 3,672,500 80.4 4,563,683 100.0% ♦Source: Agricultural Statistics, 1976, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pages 112-136. A-180 Exhibit XIX-3 U.S. EXPORTS OF VEGETABLE OILS* 1974 Commodity Short Tons Percent Cottonseed Oils 14,338 2.2 ' Linseed Oil 67,132 10.4 Peanut Oil 17,340 2.7 Soybean Oil Total 545,000 84.7 643,810 100.0% *Source: Agricultural Statistics , 1976 U.S. Department of Agriculture, pages 112-136, A-181 Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Iowa and Tennessee to Louisiana where the oil is transported in bulk to clean product carriers for ocean transportation. In 1976 575,000 tons of vegetable oil was exported from the Mis- sissippi River. The balance of movements in this commodity classifi- cation are accounted for by imports of vegetable oils, margarines and shortening. Approximately 450,000 tons were imported in 1976 with 165,000 tons being shipped to upriver destinations (primarily Illinois and Ohio). Tallow and Animal fats and oils are byproducts of slaughter houses. These commodities are used in certain food and feed processing. The movements on the waterways, however, are a result of export demand for these products. The movements originate primarily from Chicago, the Min- neapolis area, Iowa and Missouri. They terminate in the New Orleans area where they are loaded on oceangoing vessels for export. Pulp and Paperboard Production of paper and paperboard is increasingly becoming a Southeastern United States industry where abundant supplies of soft timber exist (see Exhibit XII-3, Geographic Distribution of Paper Industry"). As a result of the increased geographic concentration of paper pro- duction, the demand for paper transportation has increased, as the largest markets for paper and paper products are located in the Northeastern states and along the Ohio River Valley. Basically, local paper consumption is a function of population and manufacturing activity. A-182 Waterborne transportation does not play a large role in the transportation of paper and paperboard as they lack the flexibility of delivering the products to the end users with- out incurring an intermodal transfer. In 1972 only 2.2 percent of the shipments from paperboard mills were via water trans- portation, and less than 1 percent of the paper mill shipments were by water. . The waterways, however, have a competitive advantage for paper and paperboard exports. With the appearance of LASH barge-carrying ships, paper can be loaded at or near the paper mill into barges and does not require rehandling until the barge reaches the destination country. This eliminates at least one handling of the commodity which reduces the probability of damage. The major shipping areas of paper and paperboard are the Arkansas, Tennessee, and Yazoo River. The predominant movements are downriver to the Lower Mississippi where the shipments are either exported or exit the Mississippi River system via the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. Handling of the Non-Durable Manufactures, NEC The vegetable oils and animal fats and oils are trans- ported in liquid bulk form. Clean barges must be utilized in the transportation of these commodities as their end use is for food or feed processing. Some of the commodities, such as tallow, may require heating in order to maintain the product in a pumpable state. 1972 Census of Transportation A-183 Paper and paperboard is normally transported in large rolls although paperboard can be shipped on pallets or in other bundled forms. Paper and paperboard require a high degree of care in handling as the product is very susceptible to breakage. Paper must also be kept dry and accordingly paper moved in covered hopper barges must be insulated by dunnage to prevent direct contact with the barge structure which may be wet with condensation. Newsprint has the same basic handling characteristics and requirements although it is relatively lower in value than paper and paperboard. Each of the other commodities in this group have dif- ferent handling requirements, however, due to the low volume of movements they will not be discussed here. In general, these other commodities are breakbulk in nature and are relatively high value per ton. Movements of the Non-Durable Manufactures, NEC The movements of the largest volume commodities have been described under their respective sections. As a group the general pattern of movements are very export-import oriented as evidenced by the lack of intrastate movements (see Exhibit XIX-4). Louisiana accounts for a high percent of both outbound and inbound movements as a result of the export-import orientation of the movements. This group represents only one half of one percent of the total tonnage moved on the internal waterways in 1976. The group's movements increased in volume from 1969 to 1976 at an annual rate of 7.5 percent, however, it is evident from Exhibit XIX-5 that this growth was very volatile with the tonnage in 1975 falling to the 1969 level. A-184 Exhibit XIX-4 NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURERS, NEC GROUP MOVEMENTS 1976 (short tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 16,654 104,686 103,685 Arkansas 603 199,060 Illinois 53,849 188,187 34,847 Indiana 835 Iowa 4,599 127,186 Kansas Kentucky 14,801 22,505 Louisiana 1,051,762 428,111 440,687 Minnesota 7,482 34,387 Mississippi 6,537 243,028 4,655 Missouri 4,984 87,018 Nebraska 4,817 4,239 Ohio 111,154 4,895 Oklahoma 5,199 Pennsylvania 5,724 4,229 Tennessee 65,124 57,790 West Virginia Wisconsin Total 1,348,925 1,505,321 583,874 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc, A-185 oo s: o_ i— i ■jz OO Q. o o cc cu Lf) (_> X LU tO m t— i z r*. c X Cn o oo t— 1 +J +-> UJ 1 •r- q; en +J -O. => to \_ •r- I— Cn o JT <_> t— i fi- X o I «>3- r^. p^. «tf- en o i^» o en i—t CO en to «— t o CM r— ro *d- o en i— i to o t— i <0 4-> CM Lf) Lf) en i— t «* o CO O CO en to CM o i— 1 en CO 1— o en ^- t-H VO CO o ^*- C\J CM co CO CM CM CM CO CD -l-> fO CO *d- en CO en i — l Lf) «tf- 4-> in r*. i— t i— i o ^r en r-. to r-» en i— i to r»» Lf) Lf) 00 (O s- i-v. i— • CM en Lf) o CM CO 4-> cn en to p»- o o 00 CO c i— i i— i CM CO ■3- *r r-H Lf) >— t T3 C 3 00 CO to o o i—i <* r— 1 CO i—i O {->. i— i CM 00 CM Lf) LO O CO CM CM Lf) CO fl A *l ** A *% A #i o -O. +-> 3 to t— 1 CM o O i— 1 CO Lf) o *fr «3" ^r ■ — ( r-. CO O en CO Lf) «?r i— i CM o Lf) o CO o CM i— i o CO 00 Lf) ■o O CO t— 1 i— i Lf) «3- CM CM c i— i en en Lf) CM 00 00 en 3 •* «t fk #t m m n 41 o CO i — i o en Lf) CM CO CO JO r-» to to o CO «vf r*. «3- c en «a- to CO o «— I 00 CO ►— 1 id i— 1 en o T—i CM CO "* Lf) to «J0 r-« r^. r^ r-^ r^- r^ l^~ en en en en en en en en o c r»» £ uj en o ^»- »— i +■> ■M I ■r- CO +■» .Q LU tO £- •i- CrT Cn O XI— «/> LU O * — CO CM LO LO «^- CM *t r-H LO LO C\J O «d- CO «d- CO CM 1— CTi VO i—i to 00 co r*^ as fO +J CSJ CM *3" «d- o as r-. r^. o C\J i— t i— i to r^ CM CO CO 1— i— I r— I t— i 00 o CO CM CO CSJ CM CM I— 1 CM i— i CO CO +-> «tf- LO i— I «3- 1— t «3- 00 i— i LO CO LO CM «d- *d- as i— I CM r— 1 o o CO i— < o to CO VO to o r-» as «a- as fO i- +J r»» r^ «3- CO p^ CM 00 5* ro CO co 1— 1 CM CO LO o c CM »-H c O as r-H to CM to to CO «3- to CM 00 LO to o «d- LO o O r«~ l-«. «3- CM o LO +J O 00 O to to 00 CM as co CO Lf) CM o r-^ as to i-H 00 00 LO CM CM O c 00 O 00 CO *r CO O CO 3 P^ CO r-H 00 CO CM i— t CM O JD r— t tO 1— 1 r*» LO r-H r-H LO C i— 1 CO «3- r^. 1— 1 o as r*. i— i CO CM co CM CO CO '&■ LO OS o 1— t CM CO <3- LO to tO r^ r^ p» r-» r>» r^ r^ OS as as CTi as as as as o O a: CO 1— 1—4 1—1 ■M a: 1 +j *r"- LU (Tv i- -O. 1— tO •r~ < Cn .c -C 2 r— 1 00 X LU co Q o CD +J to rtJ S- ■o c o ■M 3 o CO CT> ^ r-H r«» LO t— I (M LOOLOCX>C\Jr^r-HLO Cvj«3-COOCOO>-tOO COLOCnOLOOOOvO CO CO CO tO LO tO LO r^ CO r*» CM CO r«» tO O LO t— 1 CO r^ tO «d- ^r LO r^ CO cr> «— 1 LO LO en r> * #1 n •* A A n LO CO en 1— 1 CvJ I— 1 CT> LO 00 CsJ CO «-1 CO LO CO r-» tO CO r»» "* O O to CO W CM «t 10 tO co CM CO ^ CO O CO <— 1 .— 1 i—( LO O CO 1— 1 CVJ CsJ co O <— t cn to O r^ r^ 0\ A #* A n n n r» CTi LO r-t O CO 1— H "3- to WO ^d- CO LO CO CM r»« «3" "SI- «5f LO r ■a CO cn CT> r-. Cvl r^ to LO c CvJ CO r>«. LO r^ cr> CO CO 3 CT> to 1— 1 CvJ LO CO CO CO JD tO CO r>. to to CO t— 1 to C CO 00 to ^r CO cn 00 l-H CO "5T to CO LO to ^r LO cn to en o «-» en en CM CO en en *d- en LO en to en u cu c at o co 00 s- a> s- CO CD a. E 0) CU o S- o co A-197 XXII, COMMODITY GROUP 20 - WATERWAY IMPROVEMENT AND GOVERNMENT MATERIALS The Waterway Improvement and Government Materials Group includes only one U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commodity classification : 4811 Materials Used in Waterway Improvement, Government Materials The largest volume of movements in this group is ac- counted for by material dredged from the bottom of the rivers and transported to other areas where it is dumped for fill or to strengthen river embankments. These operations are carried out by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the vessels utilized in these operations pre owned and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Other materials transported on the waterways for improvements include pilings, rock, and cement forms used as riprap. Exhibit XXII-1 shows the movements of Waterway Improve- ment and Government Materials by state. The largest volume of movements occurred in Kentucky where over 3.1 million tons of Waterway Improvement materials were moved out of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers. Substantial movements of this group also occurred on the Missouri River. These move- ments were both outbound and intrastate. The vast majority of the waterway improvement materials that were removed from these areas were transported to the Lower Mississippi River where they were used in Louisiana and Mississippi. A-198 Exhibit XXII- 1 WATERWAY IMPROVEMENT AND GOVERNMENT MATERIALS MOVEMENTS 1976 % (Short Tons) Inbound Outbound Intrastate Alabama 4,800 Arkansas 128,715 157,501 407,222 Illinois 197,881 6,000 140,297 Indiana 1,892 605 Iowa 200 49,883 32,889 Kansas 45,436 Kentucky 21,923 3,135,753 382,020 Louisiana 2,012,917 30,469 868,947 Minnesota Mississippi 1,191,819 218,246 131,507 Missouri 146,246 880,993 578,485 Nebraska 200 200 Ohio Oklahoma 2,470 28,200 Pennsylvania 5,098 Tennessee 922,465 62,539 117,094 West Virginia 71 Wisconsin Total 4,629,129 4,595,193 2,686,661 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. A-199 Exhibit XXII-2 shows the aggregate movements of the Waterway Improvement and Government Materials Group for the period 1969-1976. The volume of movements has fluctuated greatly from year to year. Much of the volume depends on the work required each year to maintain the river embankments from eroding further. In years when the high waters are extremely destructive, more maintenance and rebuilding is required to prevent further destruction the following year. Because of the nature of the demand for their movements, projections of future growth are very difficult to make. In 1976 this group represented 1.7 percent of the total tonnage moved on the internal waterways of the Mid-America region . A-200 (0 +-> o I— co D_ CO Ch -J < i — i cc LU h- 1— 1 1 +J en •1 — CD vo .a en •r— O .— t .c 2: X <=C UJ c o o co o a: a. >- +J to s- 3 o o 00 CO UO cri n m r— f UO O CO f-^ CM CO 00 O CM UO uo UD en CO CO r^ Cn CM CO tn CM CM CM en #1 « VI A « r«^ 1— • r>. uo en uo CM 1^ r-H «3- i—< CO en CM "vT CO CM LO CO CO CM CO O uo r^ cn i-H CO <— 1 uo r~. CM r^ UO CO r>^ i-H uo «d- UO «\ A m •\ «\ « n A «=*■ r>. UO UO U") CM UO O f^. CM CM UD r-H "=3" CM CO CM UO H «3- r-H «3" IT) UO CMCOCOCOCOUOCOCM 00<£>U3UOCn«=3-«3-CO «3-oocococncnuocn 1— « lo co cn co cm 1— t r- 1 c\ en 1— 1 CM CO UD r^. uo ^J- CM 1—1 r-^ 00 «3" CO en CM 00 1 — 1 CO 1—1 «^" en uo uo uo uo ^O ID UD en o uo 1^. en en en CM en 00 CT> en uo en UO en u c o r— CO oS s- S- fO CO O) E u s- o CO A-201 MID- AMERICA PORTS STUDY APPENDIX B PORT FACILITIES INVENTORY FORM APPENDIX B PORT FACILITIES INVENTORY FORM This appendix shows the survey form used in conducting the inventory of terminal facilities. Accompanying the form are the instructions which were provided to help respondents complete the form, and the Port Facility Inventory Code Sheet. The latter defines alphanumeric codes which were used in the inventory and can be used to interpret the Facility Inventory Data tabulated in Appendix I. B-l tout I'ACJI.itii::; jnvkntoky y .',.., ( .r.-ii |„ri y\>\ Jo nj \\\ i n 1 I) » tn COi: Port Cd- JJJJJ Term Cd- /_/ /_/ llpit.it Crt- ~/"7~ ' ~K>l~MAKAli uTTiTuiiLY ' A:: or Imu- 006 J JJJJJ Porl Name- 003 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Terminal li.- Addn js- City- State- Zip- Ov.ner Nar.-.e- Address- City- State- Zip- 00?. 000 010 JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 01 \rJJ 01 ?" JJJJJ 013 J JJJJJ J JJJJJJJ 'JJJJJ 'JJ JJJJJ 'JJJJJ M4- JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ 015 JJJ JJJJJJJ JJJJJ 016 _/_/ on I I I I i Operator N=rc & Address- 010 J JJJ J JJJ JJJ J IJJJJ I* ' JJJJJ JJJ JJJJJJJ JJJJJ JJJJJ JJJJJJJ JJJJJJJ- IJJJJ J 020 _/_/ /_/_/_/ I JJJ J JJJJJJJ JJJ IJJJJ J JJJJJ JJJ i i'i i i /"/ i i i i i i i i i i i i i fJ i i i i i i i I 021 /_/_/_/_ / I IJJJJJJJJJJJ I JJJ J JJJJJ JJJJJJJ 'I i I i /"FJ I I I I I I I I I i i'i 1 I i I I I I I I I I River Kame- 3S3 J J Kivcr Mile- 384 J J J. J Bank Location- 365 J ( NOTE: n,mi" ARK AS - Complete the above section and Fleeting Area Data section OJtlv. ) Classif ication- 016 / Condi tion- 027 J Channel Depth- 028 JJJ Cargo System- °26 JJJ Current Vclocity- lligh- 386 _/._/ l.ov- 367 /. / Working Days Lost- Currcnt- Hivcr Stare- ™*JJJ 3S9 JJJ II, Klret ii, - Atvn Data Barge Capaci ty- Hooi'lnr, Tvpc- Area 1 390 JJJ 392 / Area 2 391 JJJ 393 / CO - - - . Toil Cd- •ff.vi Cd- Ccn l'oii Cd- 001 .JJJJJ «» J JJJ 00/, / / / / FOK MAUA0 USL ONLY Ueg- Updr.t Cd- 005 007 / / I' I hoc Ctl- B-2 or. JJJJJ JJJ. JJ. .L l J J. J COK Port Cd- / /_/_/ / To nu c.il- ~T I I I U|.il:it Cd- _./_/" ~ Ton maiTaT) Ti.sT: onTy /l. t'hr i>.a.-i Pi or Kame- Vt'ssvl Types- Vessel ftl.T- Car,;o Typis- P.it-r Structure Type- Suhs true lure- Const. Material: Pier Const. Matcrials- Apron Const. Material s- 0" JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ 030 JJJJJ 0ii JJJ Or? JJJJJ 033 _/ 034 JJJJJ 035 JJJJJ 03C JJJ Pier * Length- Min. Depth- No. of Vessels- Vessel Length- Slip Width- Deck Height- Deck Vidth- l.oad Capacity (psf)- Truck/Rail Access- Facc/p.nd ""•'•" 037 JJJ J o* JJJ 043 _/ 046 JJJ J ° /|9 JJJ 052 _/_/ O 55 _/_/_/ 058 J JJJ 061 / Side 1 038 JJJ J 0/11 JJJ 04'' J 0^7 JJJ J °50 _/_/_/ 053 _/_/ 056 _/_/_/ 059 JJJ J 062 / Side 2 039 _/_/J_/ 0/12 _/_/_/ 045 _/ 04S JJJ J 051 _/„/_/ 054 _/_/ 057 _/_/_/ 060 J J J J 063 / * Enter data in the appropriate column (s). ** For wharves and quays paralleling the river bank enter pier data under colunin headed by Face /End. B-3 General C.ir:-.o/Conl.-iln< 1 /r.O-l'.O/l./.. 1 11-SFAUI 1. r.-u-l 1 1 H < s Storage : Const. Hatcrlals- Inro'dc Stovnge- Rfcfcv Storage- J Yard Storage- Inside Stock Ilf..- Load Capacity 1- Load Capacity 2- Truc.k/Rail Access- Area 1 Avon 2 Area 3 COi: Tort Cd- ///_// Updo I Cd- _/_/ ) Oi ~MA H A I )~l f~r~ ONLY ~ Area 4 123 127 131 135 130 143 147 151 / / / / 124 / / / / / 125 / / / 128 / / / / 129 / / / 132 / / / / 133 / / 136 // / 140 / / 137 141 / / / 144 / / / / 145 / / / 148 / / / / 149 152 / 153 JJJJ 126 JJJJJ JJJ 13 ° JJJJ J J J 13 « JJJJ J J 138 _/_/_/ 'J J J "* JJJJ JJJ 15 JJJJ 154 / Handling Eg u i p~ c n t : Group 1 Croup 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Type- Number - Capaci ty- rixed/Movcabl c- Outreach- Container Sizes- Cycle Tiine- Stack Helght- R'.inarks Sect ion- .166 J 167 _/ 168 _/ 169 _/ 170 _/ 173 „/_/ 174 _/_/ 175 J J 176 _/_/ 177 J J 180 _/_/_/ 161 _/_/_/ 182 JJJ 183 _/_/_/ 16 '' JJJ 187 J 188 _/ 189 _/ 190 _/ 191 _/ 19 ^ _/_/_/ 195 JJJ 196 _/_/_/ 197 _/_/_/ 198 _/_/_/ 201 _/_/ 202 J J 203 _/_/ 204 _/_/ 205 _/_/ 208 _/_/_/ 209 JJJ 210 JJJ 211 _/_/_/ 21 2 _/_/_/ 215 _/_/ 216 _/_/ 217 _/_/ 218 _/_/ 219 _/_/ 243 ////// /////// ////// / /////// ////// ////// /////// ////// / /////// //III B-4 Dry lUilk Tcr.-Jinl Kadi IH.cs COi: I'wrt Cd- fill! Tom C.I- Jj'Tf U petal Cd- /_/ |(JirHAKAiril~i:~(»NI.Y ~ Sto rage: Outside Storage 00- Outsidc Storage (LT)- Insidc Storage (LT)- Insidc Storage (SF)- Inside Storage (CF)- Storagt Const ruction- Truck/Rail Access- Arcn 1 Area 2 Area 3 244 _ IJJ 24 1 i I LL 250 _. UJJ 253 _ 'JJJ 256 _j UJJ 259 t t / / / i 262 , 245 251 254 257 263 246 / / 249 ./ ./ ./ / / 252 255 25S 261 264 JJJJ .IJJ JJJ JJJ III/ Handling Equi pment : Type- Number- Capacity- Loading Rate- Discharge Rate- Outreach- Fixed/Moveable- Group 1 Group 1 Group 3 268 / 271 / / 263 / / / 286 / 269 / 272 J J 284 / / / 287 / 270 / 273 J J 274 / / / / / lib I I I I I 276 / / / / / 211 I I I I I 278 / / / / / 279 / / / / / 280 / / / / / 281 / / / / / 282 I I I I I 285 / / / 288 / Remarks Scction- 292 ///////_///_///_////_//_////// I JJJ / / /_/ ~l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ' I I I I I I I B-5 VI. l.lcrM Hnl V. Tit -.In.-il I'.ulllHis Stor.K.ci Storage Construct ion- Slorar.c! 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IO 13 ra 13 13 41 41 ■f— •f— ■p- 1 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 > 3 3 * 3 3 — 3 ' ■ r~J 1 1 o o C-9 Exhibit 2 SUMMARY OF SELECTED TRANSPORTATION LINES Mississippi River System and Gulf Intracoastal Waterway 1975 Sample Data 807 Towboats 62% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 4) 1,797,100 horsepower 79% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 4) 12,373 Barges 72% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 10) 1,983 Deck Barges 82% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 10) 8,678 Hopper Barges 73% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 10) 1,712 Tank Barges 62% of Domestic Transportation Fleet (Exhibit 10) Lines Service Type No. of Lines Average HP Per Line Average No. of Barges Per Line Class 1 - Regulated 11 38,800 356 Class 2 - Exempt 54 27,400 130 Class 3 - Private 17 9,600 85 Total 82 Service Type by Ba rge Type Total Deck Hopper Tank Class 1 - Regulated 31.5% 3% 86% 11% Class 2 - Exempt 56.9% 18% 68% 14% Class 3 - Private 11.7% 42% 40% 19% Barge Type by Service Type Deck Hopper Tank Class 1 • ■ Regulated 6% 39% 24% Class 2 • ■ Exempt 64% 55% 60% Class 3 ■ ■ Private 30% 6% 16% C-10 B. Towboat Technology There are 2,500 towboats with more than 3.5 million horsepower propelling more than 20,000 barges on the inland waterways system. Towboats have steadily become both more powerful, and smaller and lighter, developing horsepowers that have approached practical limits in the mid-1970s. This impending limitation in power poses a major challenge to continuation of improvement in fleet efficiency. Towboats on the rivers and waterways may be divided into three distinct categories each of which has unique requirements. Workboats and fleeters — low horsepower vessels designed to handle and sort barges alongside terminals, to transport barges to and from bank or mid-stream anchor fleet areas and to break-off or add-on barges to line-haul tows moving in mid-stream. Crew accommodations are minimal and power ranges up to 1,500 hp. Approximately 1,100 craft with an aggregate 950,000 hp served inland waterways ports, terminals, and fleeting areas in 1975. Line-haul towboats — medium horsepower towboats with single or twin screws that handle the majority of multi-barge tows on all rivers in the inland water- ways system. About 1,200 towboats of 1,950,000 hp operated on the Mississippi- Gulf Intracoastal systems in 1975. Line- haul boats frequently "turn-around" in C-ll the Cairo area, transferring barges to and from higher horsepower towboats working the Lower Mississippi. Lower Mississippi and Ohio River line- haul towboats — high horsepower towboats with twin or triple screws move the largest tows in the relatively broad - reaches of the inland waterway network. Approximately 40 towboats aggregating more than 300,000 hp were in operation in 1975. Exhibit 3 traces the towboat and tugboat fleet serving the Mississippi Network and Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. Exhibit 4 presents the 1975 towboat fleet serving interport inland navigation in the Mid-America area. 1. POWER AND PROPULSION Efficiency in towboat operations has been largely realized through the construction of increasingly powerful line-haul and shift towboats within smaller, lighter and durable hull and deckhouse envelopes. The conversion of engine torque into propeller thrust has been the object of steady refinements that included the introduction of the German Kort nozzle concept to towboats in 1937, the use of high speed diesels, pneumatic clutches and reverse gearing rather than reversing engines in 1939 and flanking rudders in the years following World War II. 360° steering nozzles were first experimented with in the late 1940s and controllable pitch and Voith-Scheider propellers were tested in the 1950s, with only limited success. In 1977 3 year-end grain shipments attracted 10 3 500 horsepower towboats to points as far north as L/D 21 on the Upper Mississippi. C-12 >- UJ oo < o o < a: l— C3 "2 Z i— i i— i LO > U. r-. Q£ _l cr> UJ ZO T— 1 CO 00 CD i oo 4-> oo Q <~o •^ _1 —^ cr> -Q UJ < t— i •r— 00 _e oo 'S. T3 X UJ UJ e UJ > 1— OO UJ CJ3 >- S- z oo - O UJ 1— > a: a. a. oo oo oo 00 UJ zc t— 1 o -O ^- lo o lo LO oo ■>}- I"*. fl a n en CM =d- i— 1 r-i lo oo - A ** A Cft C\J lo «-H i—i CM CM n OO oo "=J- i— 1 oo r*^ CM CO oo LO CM r>. « « «* o*> cm 00 i — I i— i oo CM «. oo CM I-- CM .—1 LO CM CM .-H .-^ r^» « ■i A 01 CM "^" r-4 i—t LO LO CM r-» oo O CM [■>» LO i—i «3" LO o r-« « *» « oi CM oo 1—1 <— i <* LO CM «* LO oo «* o 00 o OO oo Cn 1 — *s « o en Cn cn CTi CM LO cr> LO #» « (31 CM <3" <-H 1 — CM CM <^- CT) ■* .—I «* LO CO CM lo en LO *l •* en CM O0 .— f oo «— 1 CM s_ 00 Q. a 3 00 s- a> -o -a %- o > a> i= 4- ai zc r— 03 O s 4- r— o a> O a 00 1_ a. cn Q. +J 0) cj «3 (/) o fO .O 00 i. O) i- O E s_ at CL Q. .o 3 O > >> 1 3 z ZC < I— <4- 00 o oo s- o +-> m s- cu a. o 00 +-> tz 03 u cu 00 +J Z3 o u CD c UJ O0 s- o o s- < Q. ERED LLED > < -J h- UJ CO Q Z o K CO a- Ch WBOAT EPOWEI O (0 K AC o W> 5 X *o < ©» uj UJ «3 C5 H < CQ OC x w X > o «© O O O o O o o o in o noi ssoao aid aiMOdisaoH novaiAV C-19 basic 567 V-engine weighed 29 lbs. per horsepower, its turbocharged successor weighed 16.5 lbs. per horse- power, while the current turbocharged diesels weigh about 12.5 lbs. per horsepower. These savings in engine weight, as well as in gearbox weight, now permit tow- boats to accommodate 3-engine plants of 10,500 hp in the space required by a 3-engine 3,000 hp plant 30 years ago. Exhibit 7 depicts average towboat horsepower delivered and operating 1950-1980. The distinct in- creases in average horsepower delivered (1966) and operating (1971) are the result of turbocharging and a decrease in the construction of work and fleeting boats, respectively. Despite these past achievements, the ability of the fleet to continue to increase propulsive performance at historical rates is doubtful (see Exhibit 6). The importance of cost effective propulsion has been in- creased by the post-1973 increase in fuel and particu- larly light diesel oil costs and towboat operators now seek the economy of lower cost higher fiscosity re- sidual fuels. Consumption of heavier fuels requires higher cost engines capable of more than recovering this investment through the use of lower cost fuel. In 1945, .400 lbs. of fuel per horsepower-hour was consumed, twenty years later consumption of .375 lbs. was achieved and in 1977 diesels can burn residual fuels at the rate of only .33 lbs./hp hours. The introduction of slow and medium speed diesels to large American line-haul towboats is expected to take place in the early 1980s. In 1978, the U.S. Merchant Marine will receive its first slow-speed diesel-powered tugs for Gulf Coast integrated tug-barge operations. C-20 IS IE x m Q LU cc LU > D LU Q H- Q <5 ig «-£ uj £ cc o > ^ < cc LU I Q. 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C tO r— u to (C •!- 3 i— 3 « CU r— -a -i- u t- r— -O -O O C -r- +J •r- cu tO C 3 10 1- W w 10 +j O <0 1- , +J to •r_ +-> ■o a> r— 1 CM •— ( i— 1 m id «3- en eo ° i O "O M * Hr-( o ^^ <— • .—i < — i h- E o ^h ^r m en i— i en en CO ^H 1 E o ^H .— 1 t— ( C\J O CM CM CM «* 1 o I o ■o c to M 10 to p— ai c re c +J re • 00 x: to o s- T3 eu CU c > +J •r" *r" 'r m *0 Qi C E 3 O c -o 14- o c O <0 u eu •p- * u <*- -^ i- M- i- cu tO 3 E S- O E -t-> W o 10 o f— 'r- T3 Z a o c o « s- i — 10 o •r— XI ■o o S- c c 0) (O -r- 4J f»- re • r> r- 3 LD fO i—i r-. c a en i- « (/) r-l <1) -r- s- +-> O. eu s- c a. eu re *t~ 'r - c eu in •i- >- c to en O •>- C 1- ■M in uj re in ■a +J -i- 4- c s- S o s- Lfi o •> r~ h- O CM en o r— t ^f m E s- n_ cu i- re O T- < ex S- +-> re c +-> ■ • eu 3 eu U X) <_> S_ -i- s- CD J- 3 Cu +-> O -H oo C-31 EXHIBIT 10 MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM AND GULF INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY BARGE FLEET 1 1975 Barge Number of Length & Capacity Type Description Barges Breadth Net Tons Hopper Open 204 245x35 2,400 Hopper Open Jumbo 4,576 195x35 1,700 Hopper Open Standard 2,408 175x26 1,060 Hopper Open Small 977 120x30 630 Hopper Covered Jumbo 3,861 195x35 1,700 Deck 200' 290 200x50 2,050 Deck Jumbo 430 195x35 1,500 Deck 150' 677 150x32 600 Deck Small — 100' 1,030 100x26 350 Tank 290' 551 290x53 3,740 Tank 240' 727 240x50 3,000 Tank 185' 310 185x54 2,53U Tank Jumbo 753 195x35 1,700 Tank Small Subtotal 1 440 135x40 1,300 17,234 26,884,830 Other Barges, not listed 2 Total 3,794 1,665,456 21,028 28,550,286 "Source: Transportation Lines of the United States, Series 4 as presented in the CACI Inland Navigation Simulation Model (INSA) , Army Corps of Engineers. > "Includes dredging, construction, contractor, laid up, and idle barges. C-32 vessel basis. Total U.S. barge output and average size constructed annually is presented in Exhibit 11. Since 1950, the average deadweight of all de- livered barges has increased from 1,130 to 2,670 dead- weight tons, and a very substantial share of this in- crease has been realized on the inland waterways. Exhibit 12 traces the numbers of tank and dry cargo non-self propelled vessels operating on the Mississippi River System and Gulf Intracoastal Waterway 1968-1975. Barges of all types have increased in efficiency during recent decades, both at terminals through im- proved cargo handling and fleet management techniques and through improvements in shipping technology which have taken four distinct forms: • Increased controlling depths. • Improved barge hydrodynamics. • Improved barge construction. • Specialized barge design. Each form of improvement is discussed below. 1, CONTROLLING DEPTHS The increase in controlling depths throughout waterway mainstreams has permitted existing barges to be consistently loaded to deeper drafts and larger C-33 Exhibit 11 U.S. BARGE CONSTRUCTION: AVERAGE SIZE AND TOTAL CAPACITY DELIVERED -2 -I I I L. 11 I I I ' ' 1950 1955 1960 1965 Year 1970 1975 1980 Source: Marine Engineering/Log Annual Reviews. 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The draft of barges is today determined increasingly by controlled channel depths. This increased draft and barge depth has permitted larger, longer barges to be developed. Third genera- tion 250 x 52-1/2 foot barges permit reduction of loading, shifting, fleeting and make-up times that range up to 50 percent, and can carry an additional 350 tons of cargo with each foot of increased controlling channel depth. 2, BARGE HYDRODYNAMICS Barge hydrodynamics have been an area of interest to designers since the early 1930s. Today barges in- corporate raked bows, bilge radii and sterns designed to reduce drag and increase directional stability. The increased operation of unit tows of bulk commodities has fostered the use of integrated barge tows consisting of leading bow-rake barges and following box barges loaded to a uniform draft. Developed in the 1940s for liquid bulk transportation up the Missisippi, integrated tows for dry bulk commodities were in use in the early 1950s. The construction of standardized barges with eight-foot nine-inch drafts and 26, 35 and 50-foot beams is a less dramatic but equally important hydrodynamic im- provement that serves to minimize towboat power re- quirements and transportation costs. 3. BARGE CONSTRUCTION Improved barge construction through improved materials, coatings, and fabrication technologies have reduced barge maintenance requirements. Better C-36 structural design has reduced barge light ship (tare) weights, thus increasing displacement available for barge cargo. Fibreglass hatchcovers on grain-hopper barges is an example of weight savings in barge out- fitting. 1 Barges are constructed today of wire-brushed and shot-blasted, primed, continuously welded steel. Rust and crack-prone welds are inspected and all weakening slag removed. Efficient use of steel through longitudinal framing, continuous welds and simplified shipyard plate handling and cutting has resulted in barges requiring only 375 lbs. of structure per ton of capacity, as compared to railroad cars which average some 550 lbs. per ton of capacity. Barge maintenance and inspection has been reduced through the use of improved coatings to preserve barge structures, rotary lock manholes for speedy inspection and access to barge interiors, and the use of inner bottoms. Proprietary rigid polyurethane foams are extending barge life, lowering maintenance costs, freeing towboats crews, fleeting services and salvage teams from the routine pumping of sinking barges. 1 **-. DESIGN SPECIALIZATION The current direction of barge design is towards comprehensive system compatability between terminal technology and barge design. In recent years barges dedicated to the major commodity groups (coal, petro- leums and chemicals, aggregates, and agricultural products) have appeared. 2 Aluminum hatch covers, common aboard many covered hopper barges, are to be banned by the U.S. Coast Guard in 1978 as hazardous in fires. C-37 Liquid bulk cargos are served by a variety of tank barge designs in sufficient supply during the mid-1970s. Crude petroleum cargos are handled by double-skinned barges fitted with coils fed by self- contained or shore-based steam plants and can dis- charge cargos in 8 hours or less. Improved coatings protect products barges, while compartmentalized de- signs serve parcel oil and chemical transportation. Cylindrical tank barges capable of transporting liquids under pressure are increasingly common. Covered hopper barges are available for the carriage of weather sensitive commodities notably grains, ores and fertilizers. Traditional grain dis- charge by pneumatic elevators and mechanical marine legs have been relatively low-capacity, high energy consuming operations (300 tons per hour unloading). This led terminal operators to emphasize efficient fleeting, shifting and hatch cover operations to reduce down-time. Larger barges, rolling and lightweight lifting hatch covers were some results. The use of fixed captive barges for positive breasting — along which a string of barges may be moved into position by a shoreside barge puller — is another. Parascrew and continuous barge unloader technology is at hand with discharge capacities of 3,000 tons per hour and will speed covered hopper barge unloading in the future. Larger covered barges will be required to reduce shifting time. C-38 5. THE BARGE/CARGO HANDLING INTERFACE AND THE FUTURE The large grain shipments originating along the Upper Mississippi Region require highly efficient barging due to the shorter navigation season and the tendency of the Upper Mississippi to suffer from low water levels that requires slowed towing and reduced barge loads. A shortage of covered hopper barges on the Upper Mississippi remains a seasonal problem. The development of western coal and the competition for its transportation by rail and barge interests has recently spurred terminal technologies emphasizing broad tandem-bucket continuous barge unloading (CBU) that cut through large portions of a hopper cross- section in a single pass. Using catenary suspension endless belts to achieve low-speed motions adjacent to barge hopper sides and bottoms, coal hopper barges may now be designed to withstand years of service without the use of heavy timber bottom boards. These bottom boards, which robbed barges of useful volume and dead- weight as they became water-logged, were previously necessary to protect barge bottoms from grab-bucket operations. The development of integrated dry bulk barge types and competitive pressures in eastern and western Kentucky coal mines fostered integrated terminals and pooled coal loading facilities using shuttle barge power units and shoreside barge-pullers to speed re- positioning. These techniques permitted a single shiftboat to serve 4-6,000 ton per hour operations as C-39 compared to the 600-2,000 ton per hour loadings common in the 1950s and 1960s. A 22 , 500-ton-tow composed of 15 (195 x 35 foot) second generation jumbo hopper barges can now be loaded in 5 to 7 hours at an inte- grated major mine facility with only three 5-barge cuts and only three changes of barge-hauling wires. To unload barges at comparable rates, CBU technology is mandatory. A 22,500-ton tow consisting of eight (250 x 52 1/2-foot) third generation barges requires the same loading time as a 15 barge 195-foot tow, but realizes significant savings in continuous unloading operations because CBU elevators are horizontally fixed and barge pulling and changing is critical to its efficient operation. Exhibit 13 shows the increased efficiency realized in CBU operations in conjunction with third generation barges. In addition to the improved tank, covered, and open hopper barges of the future, other special purpose barges will appear to meet shipping requirements. The fleet of inland barges is served by a barge-building industry currently capable of producing more than 1,500 hopper barges and approximately 25 million tons of capacity annually. This production potential and the longevity of the existing fleet, permits the inland wateways to absorb major and rapid changes in specific commodity flow changes. This fact is underscored by the fact that in 1975 some 6,800 hopper barges were operating on the Mississippi and Gulf Intracoastal Waterways, while in January 1977 the 36 largest barge companies operated 10,000 hopper barges, more than 3,000 in coal service alone. C-40 EXHIBIT 13 CONTINUOUS BARGE UNLOADING TIMES A Comparison of the Time Required to Unload 22,500 Tons in Various Sized Hopper Barges With a 5,000 Ton Per Hour Installation 1st Generation Hopper Barges 2nd Generation Hopper Barges 3rd Generation Hopper Barges Number Barges in Tow 23 15 8 Capacity each, tons 1,000 1,500 2,800 dwt Length Width 175 x 26' 195' x 35' 250' x 52 1/2' Description Open Hopper Jumbo Barge 3rd Generation Open Hopper Barge Open Hopper Barge CBU Rated Capacity, tph 5,000 tph 5,000 tph 5,000 tph Clear Digging Time, minutes 12 18 33 Backhaul ing and Positioning, minutes 2 3 4.5 Clean-up minutes 6 9 13.5 Barge Changing, minutes Total time per barge 13 15 19 33 minutes 45 minutes 70 minutes Total Tow Throughput Time 12 hours, 40 minutes 11 hours, 15 minutes 9 hours, 20 minutes i Time Over 3rd Generation Barges 3 hours, 20 minutes 1 hour, 50 minutes Time Penalty, percent (36%) (20%) Future Standard Source: TBS estimates, based upon trade information. C-41 D. Unconventional Inland Waterway Technology 1, barge carrying vessels The barge carrying ship concept (Lighter Aboard Ship) in international trade is less than one decade old and remains almost exclusively a United States Gulf Coast mode of transport. The potential to carry a broad range of cargos in barges complements the diversity of cargos exported and imported by businesses in the Mississippi River Basin and along the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. The barge carrying concept emphasizes the rapid, secure, and relatively flexible transport of low, medium, and high value import and export cargos. Its primary market is shippers and consignees located within navigable river hinterlands with ready access to waterside terminals engaged in regular movements of less-than-shipload and multi-container lead lots. The volume of cargos frequently makes the barges voyage from river terminal to harbor, harbor to overseas foreign harbor and then, to river terminal a productive form of warehousing and inventory. Access to waterside terminals is a key element to shipper behavior for the use of several container lots on a regular basis is a more universal and conventional solution to less than shipload import/export logistical problems. Cargo markets that have been successfully penetrated by C-42 barge carriers and are consistent with the intended market include grains, rice, paper, pulp, lumber, textiles, non-ferrous ores, scrap and electric machinery. The barge carrier concept has been realized in two forms, both consisting of a high-speed self- sustaining mother ship and an inventory of standard barges. The prototype and more prolific class, LASH (Lighter Aboard Ship), employs 370 deadweight ton barges sized to be adaptable to European inland waterways. However, LASH barges are not popular with American waterway operators because of their non- standard dimensions. Its successor SEABEE, utilizes larger barges of 850 tons deadweight, dimensioned for maximum compatability with the 195 x 35-foot standard jumbo barge used on America's inland waterways. LASH and SEABEE barge carriers achieve effective loading/ discharge rates of 3 and 2 barges per hour, respectively, reducing port calls to two days or less. Exhibit 14 details the characteristics of LASH and SEABEE barges. The fleet of barge carriers serving the U.S. Gulf Coast and the world was largely constructed in the early 1970s. Exhibit 15 presents the barge-carrying fleet serving the U.S. Gulf Coast in 1978. Only four such ships have been ordered worldwide since the oil embargo of 1973, two are for Russian registry. Four Pacific Far East Lines LASH vessels are presently being converted to full containerships. 2 LASH carreers lift barges with a gantry crane 3 while SEABEE carriers utilize a -platform elevator and deck rollers to transfer barges. 043 EXHIBIT 14 CHARACTERISTICS OF LASH AND SEABEE BARGES LASH SEABEE Overall Dimensions : Length Beam Depth Draft Internal Dimensions Length Width Depth of Hold Capacities: Additional Characteristics Hatch Covers Hull Construction Lightweight Total in U.S. Inventory 12/75 61' 6" 31' 2" 12' 0" 8' 6" 97' 6" 35' 0" 12' 6" i 1 I i 59' 9" 29' 5" 10' 2" 90' 0" 30' 3" 14' 6" 19,900 ft. 3 370 long tons 39,140 830 long n. 3 tons 44'x26' Liftoff Steel 83 long ton 84' x 30' 3" Steel 135 long tons 3,110 1 246 In 1977 802 Pacific Far East Line LASH barges were offered for sale worldwide for a variety of uses. This will reduce the U.S. inventory significantly. Source: MarAd, Inventory of American Intermodal Equipment, 1976. C-44 EXHIBIT 15 BARGE CARRIERS SERVING U.S. PORTS IN 1978 Owner Name Flag Dwt Barge Capaci ty Year Built Principal Coast Foreign Service Area Central Gulf Green Harbor U.S. 46.2 89 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Green Valley U.S. 46.2 89 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Green Island U.S. 46.2 89 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Lash Atlantlco U.S. 29.8 77 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Prudential Lash Italia U.S. 30.2 77 1970 Atlantic S. America Lash Pacific© U.S. 30.2 77 1972 Atlantic S. America Delta Steamship Delta Mar U.S. 40.7 70 1973 Gulf S. America Delta Norte U.S. 40.7 70 1973 Gulf S. America Delta Sud U.S. 40.7 70 1973 Gulf S. America Parrel 1 Lines Austral Moon U.S. 29.7 77 1973 Atlantic Africa Austral Rainbow U.S. 29.7 77 1972 Atlantic Africa Austral Lightning U.S. 29.7 77 1971 Atlantic Africa Waterman Robert E. Lee U.S. 40.9 89 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Sam Houston U.S. 40.9 89 1974 Gulf Persian Gulf Stonewall Jackson U.S. 40.9 89 1974 Gult Persian Gulf COMB I Munchen For. 44.8 80 1972 Gulf Europe Bllderdyk For. 44.8 80 1972 Gulf Europe Lykes Lines 1 Almeria Lykes U.S. 38.4 38 1972 Gulf Europe Doctor Lykes U.S. 38.4 38 1972 Gulf Europe T1ll1e Lykes U.S. 38.4 38 1973 Gulf Europe SEABEE barge carriers. Source: Mar Ad, Inventory of American Intermodal Equipment, 1976 . C-45 Following the oil embargo massive port congestion in North Africa, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf ports created opportunities for unconventional rapid-turnaround self- sufficient vessels. Hundreds of specialized craft, including heavy lift and roll-on/roll-off vessels were constructed to meet these opportunities, but not a single barge carrier entered service despite the apparently favorable conditions. The absence of U.S. and foreign barge carrier orders throughout this boom signifies the longer term limitations of the barge carrier concept , certainly in the eyes of current and prospective owners and operators. Despite the low levels of barge carrier construc- tion activity, the U.S. Gulf Coast fleet is projected to expand from 400,000 dwt in 1975 to some 845,000 dwt in 2000, an annual growth of 3 percent. This rate of growth represents a new stage in the life cycle of the barge carrier and is not a continuation of the nearly 50 percent annual early life cycle growth rate ex- perienced in the Gulf between 1969 and 1975. Exhibit 16 presents a forecast of U.S. Gulf Coast barge carriers by vessel size and deadweight. This modest 3 percent annual growth in barge car- rier supply through 2000 will fall short of the ex- pected annual growth in high potential commodities . * U.S. Merchant Fleet Forecast of Vessels in U.S. Foreign Trade , Draft Final Report, Temple, Barker and Sloane, Inc. January 1978. o Foreign trade on the Mississippi River grew at the rate of 10 percent annually between 1966 and 1975 (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). C-46 cc \- LU (S) >— o oo H- >- O0 I— o LU «t O < U- O o o o CM IT) CD CD O CD CD CO CX> O CO CD CD CD CD 2 -o to CD Q CD CD fO i~ CD > i-H CO en ld o m CO O CM en en o co *f o co r->. <-H cm *co CD r>^ -o CD fO ■— i S- h- >> s_ c (O CD 3 •r— C CD -C >> CD +J •(- •<- CD u 2 fO TO Q. (T3 o o o A3 CD o o o C_> O CO «a- o A #» «* r— •*- CTi CO «* * CD -M CD 1_ r— O Ll_ Q. CD -M CC C TO r— • -C (T3 o C s- • r— CD U_ s: 4-> • «4- oo (D • S- 35 o CD O s_ 3 o C/T C-47 Although the commodities of high potential represent a small portion of all Mississippi River system cargos on a tonnage basis, their value is proportionately higher than the majority of commodities handled at most inland waterways ports. It is for this reason that many local waterway port interests are hopeful that LASH and SEABEE barges can corner a larger share of con- tainerized high value cargos originating in and destined for their hinterlands. Given the absence of barge carrier fleet ex- pansion, and the conversion of several LASH vessels into full containerships, the commitment of marine decision-makers to the barge-carriers concept falls short of that required to assure anything more than a gradual decline in the role of the barge carrier in inland waterway international trade. 2. THE MINI FLEET In the late 1960s a Greek-owned fleet of small general cargo vessels commenced a service from the Gulf Coast to South America, West Africa and the Canal Zone from waterway terminals as far inland as Nash- ville. 2 A large fleet of standardized mini-ships was constructed in Japan expressly for navigation on in- land waterways. The fleet circumvents the transship- ment costs and delays at downstream ports that cargos Areas served include the East and West Coasts of South America and Mexico, West Africa, the Canal Zone and the West Coast of Central America C-48 destined or received from foreign ports close to the U.S. Gulf would have incurred. Although this fleet engaged in less than .5 percent of Mississippi River foreign trade, its competitiveness as a foreign-flag alternative to the costs of highly efficient towboat/ barge and transshipment operations of the waterways is an interesting alternative. Details of vessels in the mini-fleet appear in Exhibit 17. C-49 EXHIBIT 17 THE MINI FLEET TYPICAL VESSEL CHARACTERISTICS Length Overall : 215 feet (65.5m) Length Between Perpendiculars: 206 feet (62.8m) Breadth, Extreme 50.3 feet (15.3m) Breadth, Molded 50.1 feet (15.3m) Draft, Maximum 16.2 feet (4.95m) Depth 21.7 feet (6.6m) Deadweight 3,217 tons Gross Tonnage 1,572 tons Grain Cubic 3,785 m 3 Bale Cubic 3,669 m3 Twin Diesels 2,000 hp - 10.25 knots Twin Steel Hatches 14.6m x 7.7m (47.9'x25') Twin Holds 21.3 and 21.9m long (69.9' and 71.8') Cranes 1 - 8 ton 2-15 ton Source: Lloyds Register of Shipping, 1976. ■ f C-50 E. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Technology on the inland waterways has been shaped by the characteristics of the rivers and has undergone a steady gradual evolution. Despite the developments that have taken place in past decades, the limitations of locks, river bends, and shallow water still indi- cate the form of inland navigation to a large extent. Because it is unlikely that these limitations will be altered to any great extent during the remainder of this century, gradual evolution and not quantum leaps in technological development will continue. It is also not expected that these changes will affect modal split in any way presently quantifiable. Several recent forecasts of inland waterway technology have pointed to radical alternatives rather than feasible responses to the challenges currently facing river operators. These suggested alternatives have included sophisticated navigation and gas-turbine propulsion systems as well as the increased utilization of inter-modal systems, including the barge-carrying concept. Each of these proposals is unlikely to be realized except on a limited basis. Indeed, it is un- likely that the adoption of any new technology will be successfully adopted unless it meets the following time- tested criteria of the rivers: C-51 It is of almost universal application to inland fleet operations. Prospects include labor and time-saving lash-up systems, engines capable of operating on lower cost heavy fuels, and improved visual and radar-related navigational aids . It is consistent with the requirements for commonality and interchangeability . It is cost-effective Exhibits 18 and 19 pictorially summarize past technological developments in towboat and barge technology respectively. All improvements noted are of broad application to the industry. For this reason the inland waterway fleet can be expected to develop in the following manner: • Towboat s will continue to be produced at a rate of between 90-110 vessels per year with a total horsepower of between 400 and 500,000. Approximately 40 of these towboats will be exclusively major river line-haul towboats exceeding 1,000 hp. Between 3 and 5 towboats ex- ceeding 10,000 hp will be delivered annually. Scrappings, losses and foreign sales will increase slightly from 20,000 hp at present. Towboat crew size will undergo only a slight reduction during the remainder of the century. Certain efficiencies will result from more efficient lash-up devices and the use of larger barges. Before the year 2000, the medium speed diesel engines will be used aboard lower Mississippi line-haul towboats. Bow boats will become increasingly dependable and common on line-haul integrated tows. C-52 The barge fleet will continue to be com- posed of deck, hopper and tank barges. Hopper barges of integrated box and rake configurations will continue to be pro- duced for dry bulk unit-tows but at levels below peak 1975-1977 output. The tank barge fleet will grow slowly, primarily as specialized parcel compartmented and cylindrical tank craft are delivered. 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MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION AQDSUM** t = (AQDNX t /AQDNX tl ) AQDN** tl + (AQDKX t /AQDKX ) AQDK** j + (AQDPX t /AQDPX tl ) AQDP** t j where: AQDSUM* AQDNX AQDKX AQDPX AQDN** AQDK** AQDP** Sum of consumption in nutrient tons of N, K, and P, in millions of tons for a given state. Index for total U.S. consumption of N Index for total U.S. consumption of K Index for total U.S. consumption of P Consumption in nutrient tons, of N, millions of tons. Initialized as the mean for 1974-1976. As AQDN**, for K As AQDN**, for P ** In each variable, ** refers to state labels, such as "AL" for Alabama, etc. D-45 APPENDIX D SECTION IV FORECAST HARVESTED ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR CORN, SOYBEANS, AND WHEAT, BY STATE TO YEAR 2 000 D-46 o o CM IT CO x O rH CM |<- o rH o CM rH rH o o o ro CO rH in in CI r- sO sD O co so m * O •H - cr o r~ •H CM in in I rO CM rH rO CO r~ * |CC «• o CC O a O m CM •-* cr ro sO o CC 1* r-t sD i-l in in rO (to o O rH r-l o © cm o C' o CM © o «H lin r-t rH 1* lin 1 CD cr o l» sD a in ro rH in CM 1*- rH rO rH rH cr o * r» rO in r- lo CM cr r- O O o SO CM «-l cr K1 SO O r~ Ix «-l m rH in in fO rO a o rH rH CM rH cr If' sO O CO IrH rH in rH in in ro ro O o rH rH CJ a CM a O O CM CO o r-t ,n r-l rH «■ lin r- X co cr CM ro sC X x in sO U) in in co s£i in St o CM CO r^ o CM rH X in r- sO- in O r-t rH sC lin I* in !m ■z x O rH O vO SO sO r-t 4- 00 1 rH rH ro sO in sO cr ■«■ SO cr cr CM cr in ro h- C sO * cr sO NO - X m X ro •* CM r^ r» in rH CM cr r» in ro sO sO r-l X CM cr ro m r- CM © sO ra vO o o r-t r- CM o cr vO p- O X ro l> lT rH T> rH in m ro ro o o rH r-t o O CM o o o CM o o rH in rH rH rH «■ in CM o rs o in in CM CM •* in CM X X ■» cr cr r«- O in sO O sD r^ O CM in cr ro r- f>- r- o sO * o rH r- rH o rH O r»- o * r-l r- cr rH vO CM m sO ro in o o rH r-t o O fM O o r-t CM C5 a CM cr rH rH rH * in cr o in o a CVJ sO o in cr sO cr r- m X cr in O CM sO X «r sO ro r~ si) CM cr •* X a r- to o r-l X t-( CJ rH CM r- o rH rH vfl r«» rH sO CM in vO ro sO o o rH r-t o co CM o o rH rH O o CM cr cr rH rH «• in £ u CD z CO >- z rH rH 4 < ■> «t UJ X rH « « 3£ «t CO 0£ a X. -1 o to rH to X. 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X a cu CJ Cu "3 r-4 -H , — , —4 E LH <4-l <*■< to 4-> •3 rt 03 03 ri 03 CU O o o rt c — * r— * if. '■/■, •r. •/) to Sh ■ l-l r3 a) cu o cu '■j o -H X X X - 3 3 3 p— < — i — . —4 rt CU cu cu i-H cu >-H C c i-H c o 4-1 ■3 •3 -3 a DO < c g rt x: X g o C c c O a LU «-^ <: > •-? S ■-^ ■*^ C_ t— < ■— 1 >— ( U ■** u * < _1 ^j u * +: < wU z ~- * H I-H ►— i -r) c UJ a. C- '_) u ^ *» *^? — 23 •X * -J 3 ^. 4t >• t-H H O 4t O H ►— i Qi H -J =5 CQ t-H U LU Cu Cu Cu Cu CQ CJ < S <-H >-H t-H U "■■y cy X3 rt U o U-i ►J <: to a x o 3 to cu x cu ♦J rt 4J (0 o 4-1 to cu (*H cu 4C cu —4 X rt «- > X u rt cu D-64 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY APPENDIX E COMMODITY FORECAST METHODOLOGY THE MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY COMMODITY FORECAST METHODOLOGY CONTENTS I . INTRODUCTION A. Forecast Objective B. Basic Approach C. Preliminary Processing Steps II SELECTION OF THE FORECAST METHODOLOGY A. Major Considerations B. Hardware and Software Support III THE PRELIMINARY BASELINE FORECAST A. Regression and Review of Historical Activity B. Forecasting Procedures IV. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS OF TRADE V. REVISION OF THE PRELIMINARY BASELINE FORECAST A. Revision Objective B. Comparison of Preliminary Forecast and Historical Flows C. Adjustment of Selected Flows VI. DEVELOPMENT OF THE HIGH AND LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO FORECASTS A. Objective of Econometric Scenario Development B. Econometric Adjustment C. Forecast Generation E-l CONTENTS VII PROJECT FORECASTING A. Objectives of Project Forecasting B. Project Forecast Methodology VIII. FORECAST OF WESTERN COAL A. An Overview of Western Coal B. Demand for Western Coal in the Mid-America Region IX. LOCK CAPACITY ANALYSIS A. Objective B. Flows Past a Point C. Diversion of Excess Demand D. Determination of Constrained Lock Performance E. Summary X. LIMITATIONS AND AREAS FOR FUTURE IMPROVEMENT IN THE DATABASE AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY A. Overview B. Limitations C. Areas for Future Development E-2 I. INTRODUCTION This Appendix presents the methodology and procedures employed in the preparation of the Mid-America Ports Study commodity forecast for use in determining future waterside facility and terminal requirements. It is intended to serve as both a record of efforts undertaken in the Mid-America Ports study and a guide to opportunities for revisions and refinement of the forecast in the future. A. FORECAST OBJECTIVE The forecast of domestic inland waterway freight traffic to the year 2000 was prepared as the determinant of future demand for terminal facilities along the waterways of the Mid-America states. The forecast is therefore a key element in the study, and a forecast incorporating the latest and previously unavailable opportunities for accurate forecast- ing was developed to support study objectives. The significant departures from previous forecasts of domestic trade are the scope of the forecast and the utiliza- tion of historical waterborne commerce and economic activity at previously unavailable levels of detail as its foundation. This detail was developed through the creation of a compre- hensive definition of the waterways within the Mid-America Region, the rail lines and pipelines that complement and com- pete with the waterways, the economic activity of states within the Mid-America region, and other factors impacting the recent history and future of the waterways. B. BASIC APPROACH The fundamental operation employed in forecasting in- land waterway freight traffic was to establish relationships between historical domestic waterborne commerce and indepen- dent historical econometric indicators for the eight-year time period 1969-1976. On a national level the historical correlation between internal domestic waterborne activity and the growth of the gross national product (GNP) has been a close one. Exhibit 1 presents a comparison of GNP to internal domestic ton-miles E-3 Exhibit 1 INTERNAL DOMESTIC WATEP.BORNE TON-MILES CARRIED COMPARED WITH REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT U.S. Internal Waterways Traffic Year GNP in $1971 Ton-miles (billions) Tons Average Distance (miles) Ton-Miles/ $100 GNP Tons/ $100,000 GNP (millions) 1961 704.3 84.3 294.1 287 12.0 41.8 1962 750.6 89.6 316.1 283 11.9 42.1 1963 780.3 94.4 331.9 284 12.1 42.5 1964 823.0 101.9 357.9 285 12.4 43.5 1965 873.4 109.7 369.6 297 12.6 42.3 1966 924.2 117.3 389.9 301 12.7 42.2 1967 956.2 128.3 398.6 322 13.4 41.7 1968 1,000.7 139.3 430.2 323 13.9 43.0 1969 1,027.6 144.0 460.9 312 14.0 44.8 1970 1,022.6 155.8 472.1 330 15.2 46.2 1971 1,050.4 161.3 479.2 337 15.4 45.6 1972 1,113.8 177.5 507.0 350 15.9 45.5 1973 1,174.5 171.9 503.2 342 14.6 42.8 1974 1,154.5 183.2 511.0 359 15.8 44.3 1975 1,133.2 180.4 503.9 358 15.9 44.5 1976 1,218.7 197.1 524.0 376 16.2 43.0 NOTE: Internal traffic is traffic between ports or landings wherein the entire movement takes place on inland waterways. Also included are movements involving carriage on both inland waterways and waters of the Great Lakes; inland movements that cross short open waters which link inland systems; marine products, sand and gravel taken directly from beds of the oceans, the Gulf of Mexico and important arms thereof; and movements between offshore installations and inland waterways. Source: GNP - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Inland Traffic - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Waterborne Commerce of the United States Part 5, National Summaries E-4 and tons carried 1961-1976. The increasing length of inland voyages during this period contrasts with the steady ratio of tons carried on the waterways relative to the GNP. This constant relationship is indicative of the firm foundation upon which the Mid-America Ports Study econometric forecast- ing procedures are based. These relationships were then used to predict baseline future waterborne commerce on the basis of forecasted econometric indicators. This baseline forecast was then revised and updated to reflect environ- mental and competitive factors as well as the completion of new waterways. Exhibit 2 graphically presents the com- ponents and relationships of the traffic forecast, given the availability of a regressible eight-year flow history for a state commodity direction. C. PRELIMINARY PROCESSING STEPS _^ ___ __ To establish historical relationships between econo- metric and demographic indicators and domestic waterborne commerce, a number of steps were required prior to commencing the forecasting procedure. * For the waterborne commerce side of the equations, commodity groups and geographic areas (subregions) were developed by aggregating more than 150 commodities and 3,500 Army Corps of Engineer channels in the 17 Mid-America states. Exhibit 3 presents the 20 com- modity groups and Exhibit 4 summarizes the 89 subregions- in the Mid-America area. An array of historical and fore- cast econometric and demographic independent variables was prepared for each of the Mid-America states by Chase Econometric Associates, Inc. as shown ir " v ibit 5. The methodologies employed in the development of commodity groups, subregions, railroad capacity, and the econometric and demographic variables that formed the basis for fore- casting are described in detail in companion chapters. E-5 Exhibit 2 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY FORECAST METHODOLOGY Intra and lr» Mf-State A> * nation Historical Waterborne Commerce Directional Forecast of Waterborne Commerce Baseline Sub- region O/D Forecast of Waterborne Commerce T Adjusted Forecast of Waterborne Commerce Develop Regression Historical Econometric & Demographic Factors Forecast Econometric & Demographic Factors Application of Regressions! Relationships • Modal Split • System Con- straints • New Projects • Other E-6 Exhibit 3 MID-AMERICA COMMODITY GROuPS Commodi ty Group Code Commodity Group Description 1 Cash Grains 2 Iron and Non-ferrous Metal Ores and Concentrates 3 Bauxite and Aluminum Ores 4 Coal and Coal Products 5 Crude Petrol uem 6 Petroleum Products and Lubricants 7 Industrial Chemicals 8 Agricultural Chemicals /Fertilizers 9 Milled Grain and Agricultural Products, NEC 10 Lumber and Wood Products 11 Sugar and Molasses 12 Primary Ferrous and Non-ferrous Metal Products 13 Fabricated Metal Products 14 Scrap Metals 15 Construction Materials 16 Mining Products, NEC 17 Non-durable Manufactures NEC, including Processed Foods 18 Durable Manufactures, NEC 19 Waste and Scrap Materials, Miscellaneous 20 Waterway Improvement and Government Materials E-7 Exhibit 4 MID AMERICA PORTS STUDY SUBREGIONAL ASSIGNMENTS AND RIVER MILE DELINEATIONS 1975 1975 Tons Down River Up River Subregion Tons Sent Received Mile Mile River Oil 5 57 65118* 65169 GIW 012 11,304 9,377 45.0 Mobile 013 2,014 830 45.0 305.1 Al abama 014 7,469 6,757 45.0 430.0 Black War. 015 3,550 7,273 215.1 416.5 Tenn. 016 95 1 217. a - Tenn/Tom 017 305.1 - Coosa 018 335 787 25.5 155.0 Appa/Chatta/Fl int 041 464 16 506.0 501.3 Mi ss . 042 1,302 2,311 125.4 Ark. 043 1,150 1,275 125.4 308.5 Ark. 044 2,152 1,053 581.3 715.0 Miss. 045 958 162 715.0 828.0 Mi ss . 046 739 425 9.8 84.0 White 047 "* Ouach. 131 1,757 277 361.5 580.7 Mi ss . 132 5,788 1,121 179.0 361.5 Miss. 133 12,086 4,501 157.7 111. 134 12,119 5,487 157.7 291.0 111. 135 12,504 28,472 291.0 327.2 333.4 Chicago Canals Cal-Sag Canal 136 32 18 117.5 179.0 Mi ss . 137 6,066 371 953.8 117.5 Mi ss . 138 795 3,562 981.0 935.0 Ohio 139 7,010 142 935.0 848.0 Ohio 1310 " * — Kaskaskia River 151 5,030 4,065 361.5 580.7 Mi ss . 152 190 163 580.7 673.7 Mi ss . 153 104 222 552.4 734.0 Mo. (continued) E-S Exhibit 4 (Continued) Page 2 of 4 1975 1975 Tons Down River Up River Subregion Tons Sent Received Mile Mile River 161 189 46 367.7 489.8 Mo. 170 2,898 1,836 491.2 317.0 Ohio 171 3 574 249.0 Kentucky 172 5,302 10,658 784.5 491.2 Ohio 173 72 72 385.5 542.0 Cumb. 174 5,864 1,383 935.0 784.5 Ohio 175 15,891 287 149.5 Green 176 428 1,082 981.0 935.0 Ohio 177 142 114 905. 0° 953.8 Miss. 178 4,993 947 62.6 Tenn. 179 2,346 79 74.7 Cumb 1710 149.5 168.1/30. 0C Green 181 31,495 20,635 d d Misc. 182 33,806 22,469 88.0 Misc. 183 47,129 67,007 95 305.0 Miss. 184 74 140 305.0 426.0 Miss. 185 210 234 426.0 506.0 Miss. 186 3,628 1,380 f f Misc. 187 609 493 g 9 Ouachita 188 h h Red to Shreveport 189 h h Red to Diangerfied 231 718 954 673.8 811.3 Miss. 232 9,823 6,690 811.3 858/261 St. Croix 241 382 623 305.0 426.0 Miss. 242 1,155 3,693 426.0 506.0 Miss. 243 518 2,336 506.0 715.0 Miss. 244 9,015 5,068 65035 65118J GIW 245 k Tenn/Tom 246 9.8 Project Yazoo (continued) E-9 Exhibit 4 (Continued) Page 3 of 4 1975 1975 Tons Down River Up River Subregion Tons Sent Received Mile Mile River 251 778 1,872 828.0 905.0 Miss. 252 273 142 905.0 953.8 Miss. 253 903 661 953.8/0.0 117.5 Miss. 254 12,401 7,321 117.5 179.0 Miss. 255 1,794 1,760 227.0 Mo. 256 2,164 1,371 227.0 367.7 Mo. 257 2,128 724 179.0 361.5 Miss. 258 480 397 367.7 489.8 Mo. 259 47 196 489.8 552.4 Mo. 271 498 549 552.4 734.0 Mo. 272 39 489.8 552.4 Mo. 351 4,082 15,206 491.2 317.0 Ohio 352 189 86 317.0 265.7 Ohio 353 3,715 8,611 265.7 126.4 Ohio 354 7,629 7,007 126.4 40.0 Ohio 361 640 362 308.5/40. 3 (91.5)/50.3 Ark. 381 1,078 7,090 40.0 13.3 Ohio 382 10,806 25,875 13.3 69.0/23.81 Misc. 383 17,429 8,268 23.8 90. 8™ Monong. 421 177 157 715.0 828.0 Miss. 422 2,111 9,934 828.0 905.0 Miss. 423 1,102 4,758 62.6 215.1 Tenn. 424 269 9,169 74.7 385.5 Cumb. 425 2,187 2,460 416.5 529.9 Tenn. 426 398 1,265 529.9 69/649. n Tenn. (continued) E-10 Exhibit 4 (Continued) Page 4 of 4 Subregion 1975 1975 Tons Down River Up River Tons Sent Received Mile Mile River ^ West Virgi ni a ■ 481 482 483 484 485 6,176 13,371 4,326 6,324 8,787 9,174 1,216 3,826 4,107 3,315 317.0 265.7 126.4 90.8 90.57 265.7 126.4 40.0 Kawha Ohio Ohio Ohio 115. 4/128. 0O Monong. Wisconsin 491 492 89 subregions 434 119 704 1,482 580.7 673.8 673.8 811.3 Miss. Miss. /Black Channel codes describing Alabama limits of Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. a Tenn/Tombigbee Waterway, commencing at mile 217.0 on the Black Warrior River and ending at the Alabama/Mississippi border (under construction). K Milepost 905 on the Mississippi River. Milepost 168.1 on the Green River and Milepost 30.0 on the Barren River. See Subregional Assignment Map of Louisiana. Subregion 181 includes the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway West of the Mississippi, and the Calcasiev, Freshwater, Vermilion, Houma, LaFourche, Bataria, Harvey and Algiers water- ways as well as all western coastal counties. Subregion 182 includes Pearl River to Milepost 95, the Mississippi River to Milepost 88.0, the Mississippi River Outlet, and the Rigolet and Gulf Intercoastal waterways east of New Orleans. Subregion 186 comprises the Atchafalaya, Bayou Teche and Le Grande waterways. ^Subregion 187 is assigned to the Ouachita River in Louisiana. u Subregion 188 is assigned to the Mississippi River-Shreveport, Louisiana Reach of the Red River. Subregion 189 is assigned to the Shreveport, Louisiana to Diangerfield, Texas Reach of the Red River. Milepost 26 on the St. Croix River, and Mileposts 858 (last commercial facility) on the Mississippi River. ^Channel codes describing Mississippi limits of Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, u Tenn/Tombigbee Project. Milepost 69.0 on the Allegheny River and Milepost 23.8 on the Monongahela. Milepost 13.3 on Ohio River. nilepost 90.8 on Monongahela River (Pennsylvania/West Virginia border). Milepost 69.0 on Clinch River. Milepost 649 on Tennessee River. Milepost 115.4 on the Monongahela at Opekiska Lock and Dam, Milepost 128.0 at head of navigation. E-ll Exhibit 5 PRINCIPAL ECONOMETRIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Historical 1969-1976 Forecast 1980-2000 National Variables State Variables by Commodity and Industry Grain Exports (soybean equivalent tons) Coal Production and Consumption (thousands of tons) General Exports (billions of 1972 dollars) Cash Grain Production (thousands Total Housing Starts (hundreds of Shipments of Manufactured Goods (millions of 1967 dollars) of tons) units) Consumption of Fertilizers (nutri ent tons) SIC Code Value Added in Manul Factured Goods by State (mi 1 1 i ons of 1958 dollars) Code Code 20 Foods 29 Petroleum Products 21 Tobacco Products 30 Rubber and Plastic Products 22 Textile Mill Products 31 Leather and Products 23 Apparel Products 32 Clay, Glass, Stone Products 24 Lumber and Products 33 Primary Metals 25 Furniture and Fixtures 34 Fabricated Metal Products 26 Paper and Products 35 Non-electrical Machinery 27 Printing and Publishing 36 Electrical Machinery 28 Chemical Products 37 Transportation Equipment 38 Instruments E-12 II. SELECTION OF THE FORECAST METHODOLOGY A. MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS There were several major considerations which influenced the development of the selected forecast methodology. These included: • The total number of potential subregional pair commodity flows (443,760) • The total number of potential regional^ pair commodity flows (21,540) • The total number of potential intra, inbound, and outbound commodity flows for each region (1,100) • The econometric and demographic historic and forecast values were available by region (state or whole United States) • The small number of actual commodity flows ob- served relative to the potential in each of the above cases. The density of observations and availability of econome- tric data proved to be the two deciding factors. Econometric and demographic data are not available at the subregional level; which precluded using this level of detail as the basis for the primary forecast. At the regional level two alternatives were explored: • Primary forecast of state pair movements; and • Primary forecast of state inbound or outbound, and intra movement; with the forecast of state pair movements being developed from the alloca- tion of inbound movements to their source state and outbound movements to their destination states based on historical state pair flow patterns. 2 Each region corresponds to a state in the Mid-America area. E-13 The low density of the state pair flow data resulted in the selection of the second alternative. Even at this level of detail 368 state pair potential flows (67 inbound, 90 outbound, and 211 intra), exhibited no traffic in 1975 or 1976. An additional 178 potential flows indicated intermit- tent traffic movements during 1969-1976. This left only 544 potential commodity flows which indicated continuous activity during 1969-1976. The density of full eight-year flows at the state pair level is significantly below the 49 percent represented by the 544 flows based on state and direction. Exhibit 6 presents a tabular summary of the density of state/commodity /direct ions 1969-1976. This selection process resulted in the development of a methodology which has three basic steps: 1. The forecast of intra and inbound or outbound movements for each region. 2. The development of state-to-state movements and the destinations of outbound movements (and sources of inbound movements) from each state by trending the historic flow patterns between the states. 3. The development of subregion-to-subregion movements under the umbrella of each state pair using trended distributions of the total state pair flow. These steps are applied to each state, commodity, and di- rection of flow including intrastate movements. B. HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE SUPPORT The size and complexity of the forecast required ready ac- cess to the historical and forecast database for primary forecast development and efficient processing and storage of allocated state and subregional pair flow patterns. A CDC 6000 time sharing computer system with proprietary data management and analytical packages was utilized for all state/commodity/direction analysis. Access to the system was by terminal and all historical information at the state level, including historical commodity flows by direction and econometrics were loaded manually. Exhibit 7 graphically presents the general characteristics of the database. Forecast values of state activity were developed and stored in this database. E-14 Exhibit 6 - MID-AMERICA STATE/COMMODITY/DIRECTION DENSITY 1969-1976 li |,# |. 1 LiiiiiL i Uh 1*1 1*1 \}& Is* \ J \2* US u 3 - la." 1, 'a* l»ill/illi fill 01 02 03 04 os / 06 07 US 09 1 10 11 I 12 / 13 14 is 16 17 18 19 20 | Alabama 01 r f r F F F 1 3 F F F F F F F F F F F F CSV F F F F ®*F 1)5 7®S F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F 2 F F S 7 S 01 Arkansas 04 3 r r © . ® 2 1 2 ® 1 3 ®2 F F 1 F F 1 ® F F ® 3 F D 3 1 6 F © © F 6 2 2 CO F ©@ 3 ®® ® F 1 ® * 1 ®1 2 ® F F 04 Illinois 13 r f r 2 F®* 3 1 F F F ®' 3®' F F F F F F F F F F 4 F F ® 2 F ® 3 F** F F © 4 F F F F F F F F F F F ®s F F ®' F F ® F F F F F 13 Io»a IS z F F F 3 • O 1 F (3)1 . . 2 F F 1 F F S 1 F F 6 3> 4 ®' F I 1 F F 1 3)2® F F r F F F . F F 3 2 1 3 F F F 15 tlftS41 16 1®* F 1 . 2 - . . 1 s 1 5 F 16 Kentucky 17 S F F 1 F F i F F F ( ®* 7 F F F F F F ®3 F F 1 5 F F . 5 F F F F F 4 F F F F F ® F © 1 F F S F F 1 ®*F F F F 17 Louisiana 18 F F F F F F S F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F 1 F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F 7 18 Minnesota 23 F 03 F 1 2 - F F F Q 1 F F F F 4 1 1 F F 4 • F F 1 | - F ® |6®5 1 F F F F 2 F I F F 3 2 ® 1 . . 21 Mississippi 24 F F F 3- 2 ® 1 - 1 F 2 S*F F F F F F F F F F F F F 1 1 F F F F F F 1 S F F F F F 7 F F F F F F ® J F F F F F ?4 ?5 Missouri a F F F F 5 1 1 F F F 2 1 F F F F F F F ® 3 ® 4 F © 2 F F 1 F 4 F F F 5 F F 7 F F F F F® 1 F F F®* F®* F F F Nebraska 27 (3>F 1 • . . 1 - . . 1 • 1 F 1 ©' 4 F . . F 1 F 2 ® 4 3 • 1 F - F 1 F F 1 2 . . 7 F F 27 Ohio 3! F F 3 F F s • F F F 1 92' F F F 6 F F ® F©3 1 6 ©1 F 3 F F F 6 F F F F F F F F 1 F F F© 4 F® 2 F F 4 5 4 35 OkUnooa 36 1 ® 1 - . . - ® . . 3 ® ®® © 1 - ® ® 1 © 1 ® ®® 3 1 ®® 1 I © l® 1 2 - S • 3 ® 2 1 3 2 © 35 Pennsylvania 38 1 • 4 F F 1 - F F F F 3 F F F F F F • F - 2 6 2 F . F, J F F F F F F r f • F F F 6 F®J ®»F 3 F F 6 F®1 3 4 F 38 Ttmesset 42 F F F F F 1 2 ® F F F - F F F ® 2 F F 2 2 F F F F F F®1 ®* 1 F F F F F F F F F F 1 F F S F F ®* F F D'® j [f f 42 U. Virginia 48 . 2 F F I - F F F 2 F 7 F F F F F F 1 - 1 4 3 1 - F F ® 4 ® 2 F F F F F 1 F S 2 1 1 F® 3 ®* F F 7 F 5 40 1 Wisconsin 49 5 F - - - - F 4 - - F 4 - 1 - 2 - 2 1 - F 1 |s 4 - F ® 2 F - . . 3 1 - ® . . 49 1 01 02 03 04 OS 06 07 08 09 10 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 STATE COMMOOITT INTERSTATE (one direction! Inbound Outbound 1-7 • KunCer of Historical Ofsorvatlons r • E(nht T»ars of Traiflc 11969-1976) ® B ■ ® Tears of Cont:iuous Traffic Endlrq In 1976 B Additional ObNcrvatlons - • No Traffic Obs«rva'.ions 11969-1*76) E-15 Exhibit 7 BASIC FORECAST DATABASE Time (8) 1969 through 1976 (historical) '4) 1980, 1985, 1990, 2000 (forecast) Total # States (17) Alabama through Wisconsin, the 17 Mid-America States (1) Indiana (1) U.S. Great Lakes (1) U.S. Coastal (Gulf) 20 Total Facts (60) Commodity Groups 1 through 20, three directions (inbound, outbound, intrastate) (26) Econometrics and demographics, national and state variables 86 Total NOTES: Forecasts were developed for intrastate traffic and the designated interstate direction for each commodity. The actual database was slightly larger to accommodate various work spaces. E-16 III. THE PRELIMINARY BASELINE FORECAST A. * REGRESSION AND REVIEW OF HISTORICAL ACTIVITY As the. initial step in the forecasting process, regres- sional relationships were sought between historical state/com- modity/direction flows and the econometric variables. At least one and as many as four independent econometric variables were regressed against the 60 commodity /directions for each state. Once the more than 1,000 regressions were completed, the results were reviewed to identify either the inbound or outbound interstate directions as the basis for each commodity group's interstate forecast flow. The selected direction then served as one end point in the development of state origin and destination movements. Exhibit 8 summarizes the relation- ships that were tested by regression. Selection of interstate direction was based upon the fol- lowing criteria: • Only full eight-year flow histories were considered. • Of these flows, only those with relationships with an adjusted percent variances explained (R2) equal to or exceeding 50 percent were selected. • For each commodity, the total 1976 tons repre- sented by these select flows in all the states were summed for the inbound and outbound direc- tion. The direction with the higher percentage of tonnage explained was selected. Because of the "closed system" characteristics of the Mid- America states and non-Mid-America states, "inbound" interstate tonnage equals "outbound" interstate tonnage. ^ • These directions became the designated direc- tions for all subsequent forecasting work. 3 Stated precisely the relationships for interstate tonnage are Outbound Mid-America = Inbound Mid-America + Inbound Outside - Outbound Outside. Reverse directions for the inbound Mid- America tonnage relationship. E-17 Exhibit 8 PRELIMINARY REGRESSIONS Commodity Independnet Variables Tested- Interstate and Intrastate 01 Cash Grains Grain Exports Grain Production Both together 02 Iron and Metallic Uses Shipments of Mfd Goods (SMG) 33 Primary Metals 03 Nonferrous Ores No histories qualified for regression. 04 Coal Coal Consumption Coal Production SMG 05 Crude Petroleum 29 Petroleum Products SMG 06 Petroleum Products 29 Petroleum Products SMG 07 Industrial Chemicals 28 Chemical Production SMG 08 Ag. Chem/Ferti lizer 28 Chemical Production Fertilizer Consumption Grain Production 09 Milled Grain 20 Foods Grain Production Fertilizer Consumption 10 Lumber 24 Lumber and Products Housing Starts SMG 11 Sugar & Molasses 20 Foods 12 Primary Metals 33 Primary Metals 34 Fabricated Metal Products SMG 13 Fabricated Metals 34 Fabricated Metal Products SMG 14 Scrap Metals 33 Primary Metals 15 Construction Materials SMG Housing Starts 16 Mini ng Products 20 Foods SMG 17 Non-Durable Manufacturer 20 Foods 26 Paper Products 18 Durable Manufactures SMG 19 Waste Material s SMG 20 i Waterv/ay Improvement Materials SMG l i E-18 The regression method was utilized to forecast approxi- mately 65 percent of the interstate and 45 percent of the intrastate flows. Regressions were found to be more useful in explaining the flows of commodities into a centralized region from a number of locations or from a centralized region to a number of locations. The movements of cash grains into Louisiana for export and petroleum products from Louisiana to the Mid-America region are prime examples. Generally, activity of higher value, lower volume commodi- ties were less satisfactorilty explained by historical econometrics. These movements are more sensitive to shipper decisions, inventory stockpiling, and the availability of alternative modes of transportation. These factors tend to dominate the econometric variables that describe absolute demand. B. FORECASTING PROCEDURES Upon the completion of the preceding regressions and designation of interstate directions for each commodity, all state/ commodity/direction flows were classified for forecasting as: Regressable Flows - identified by regressions, these flows were characterized by full eight year histories and an R^ (adjusted percent variance explained) of 50 percent or more. Forecasting was performed on the basis of the regression developed. Exhibit 9 presents the flows incorporated into the final forecast. Non-Regressable Flows - where a relationship between the commodity movement and the associated econometric series could not be established which explained more than half of the variance in trade volumes or where there were less than eight years of continuous com- modity movements, state econometric growth rates were applied to initialized 1976 trade values. The initial- ized 1976 trade value was calculated as a weighted average of the historic non-zero movements. The growth rate was determined from the coefficient of the regressed relationship between the log of the associated econometric variable and time. Zeroed Flows - where no movement was observed in 1975 or 1976 (except where six continuous movements were recorded through 1974), the forecast flows were set at zero for the entire forecast period. E-19 Exhibit 9 REGRESSABLE COMMODITY FLOWS Regressed Relationship T-Ratio Alabama (In) Louisiana (In) Alabama (Intra) Tennessee Alabama (Out) Louisiana (Out) Louisiana (Intra) •01 - Cash Grains- + Grain Exports + Grain Exports + + Grain Production + Grain Production Production Grain Exports Alabama (Out) + Coal Consumption Illinois (Out) + Coal Production Kentucky (Out) + Coal Consumption Minnesota (Out) + Coal Consumption Missouri (Out) + Coal Consumption Alabama (Intra) + Coal Consumption Minnesota (Intra) + Coal Consumption -04 - Coal- 05 - Crude Petrol eum- + Manufacturing Shipments + 1/Manufacturing Shipments' - Petroleum Production -06 - Petroleum Products- Arkansas (In) Illinois (In) Kentucky (In) Mississippi (In) Ohio (In) Tennessee (In) W. Virginia (In) Louisiana (Intra) Mississippi (Intra) West Virginia (Intra] + Manufacturing Shipments - Petroleum Production + Manufacturing Shipments + Petroleum Production + T1me2 . - Time (log) + Petroleum Production + Petroleum Production + Manufacturing Shipments + Manufacturing Shipments + Petroleum Production -07 - Industrial Chemicals- Alabama (In) Arkansas (In) Louisiana (In) Louisiana (Intra) + Manufacturing Shipments + Manufacturing Shipments + Chemical Production + Chemical Production Mississippi (Out) Mississippi (Intra) 08 - Ag. Chemicals/Fertilizers- + Chemical Production + Chemical Production Illinois (In) 09 - Milled Grain- + Fertilizer Consumption Ohio (In) 11 . Sugar and Molasses-— - Food Production ■■?--- 12 - Primary Metal Products- Iowa (Out) Louisiana (Out) - Fabricated Metal Production + Manufacturing Shipments 64.9 90.0 74.8 54.5 68.7 64.9 50.7 80.2 68.8 78.4 88.1 63.9 96.9 91.2 93.0 72.1 93.8 70.1 53.8 55.3 74.9 78.4 85.1 79.5 88.8 51.1 88.5 73.9 82.0 70.6 76.7 57.5 87.6 75.0 -3.74 2.77/5.19 4.67 1.87/-3.15 4.04 3.73 2.86 5.42 4.05 5.14 7.28 3.66 14.80 -8.58 9.68 -4.37 9.70 4.18 •1.67/2.77 3.11 4.68 5.14 6.39 5.30 7.51 2.88 7.43 4.56 5.73 4.22 4.90 •3.24 -7.09 4.69 (continued) E-20 Exhibit 9 (continued) Page 2 of 2 Regressed Relationship T-Ratio 13 - Fabricated Metal Products Kentucky (Out) Tennessee (Out) Louisiana (Intra) Kentucky (Out) W. Virginia (Out) Alabama (In) Iowa (In) Missouri (In) Ohio (In) Louisiana (Out) Illinois (Intra) Louisiana (Intra) Mississippi (Intra) Kentucky (Out) Alabama (Out) Louisiana (Out) Mississippi (Out) Iowa (In) Louisiana (In) - Manufacturing Shipments - Manufacturing Shipments + Manufacturing Shipments - Primary Metals - Primary Metals ■15 - Construction Materials- + Housing Starts - Manufacturing Shipments + Housing Starts + Housing Starts •16 - Mining Products- - Manufacturing Shipments - Food Production + Food Production ,—17 - Non-durable Goods- - Food Production 18 - Durable Goods- Manufacturing Shipments ■19 - Waste Materials- + Manufacturing Shipments + Manufacturing Shipments - Manufacturing Shipments 50.5 68.3 51.1 •20 - Waterway Improvement Material s- - Manufacturing Shipments + Manufacturing Shipments 53.7 54.4 79.3 78.7 53.6 71.3 67.7 72.9 59.9 78.8 52.8 51.2 60.9 73.0 57.9 90.1 -2.85 -4.01 2.88 14 - Scrap Metals -3.02 -3.06 5.27 -5.18 3.02 4.29 -3.96 -4.46 3.39 •5.20 ■2.97 2.89 3.39 -4.47 •3.26 8.06 E-21 The initialized 1976 trade value that formed the baseline for forecasts of non-regressable flows was calculated in a manner consistent with the Mid-America Ports Study requirements for terminal capacity analysis and facilities planning. This value emphasized trade in more recent years, by the use of weighting, so that facility requirements are determined with an increased emphasis on 1975 and 1976 activity. 4 Exhibit 10 compares the 1976 historical trade flows and the 1976 initialized trade flows for all trade flows including those that were regressable or set to zero. Interstate traffic is understated by approximately 6 percent, and intrastate traffic is overstated by 5 percent. These discrepancies are reduced in the actual forecast because a significant share of the tonnage is forecast on the basis of the regressioned relationships which do not utilize the 1976 initialized values. Exhibit 11 presents the designated directions and econo- metric factors utilized to project non-regressable flows. Regressable flows were forecast .using proprietary regression/ forecasting packages. Future non-regressable flows were developed on the basis of econometric growth applied to the 1976 initialized values. 4 The multiplier weights applied to 1975 and 1976 were 2 and 3 respectively. E-22 Exhibit 10 COMPARISON OF 1976 AND INITIALIZED 1976 TRADE FLOWS Inbound Outbound 1976 1976 1976 1976 Commodity Group Actual Initialized Actual Initialized Cash Grains 41,545,601 31,361,132 40,871,318 31,737,748 Iron & Non-ferrous Ores 8,265,327 9,261,954 2,381,983 2,219,662 Bauxite and Aluminum Ores 384,899 418,909 418,905 437,882 Coal 59,822,915 54,212,518 71,733,787 68,589,787 Crude Petroleum 7,909,160 8,556,827 13,479,691 26,677,816 Petroleum Products 47,299,418 43,537,402 53,140,324 48,943,723 Industrial Chemicals 13,622,493 13,254,792 12,587,791 12,717,218 Ag. Chemical s/Fertilzers 12,290,506 10,618,480 5,524,655 4,701,790 Milled Grain 6,433,341 4,040,706 6,407,389 4,128,672 Lumber and Wood 829,940 774,732 858,585 789,827 Sugar and Molasses 1,062,634 1,152,491 1,086,910 1,085,086 Primary Metal Products 4,713,489 4,747,863 4,942,318 5,063,094 Fabricated Metal Products 282,645 333,198 307,176 375,432 Scrap Metals 733,398 634,818 1,308,265 827,865 Construction Materials 18,870,679 18,907,550 13,261,691 13,326,431 Mining Products 5,041,541 5,179,584 6,719,790 6,983,103 Non-Durable Manufactures 1,348,090 1,224,725 1,505,321 1,291,484 Durable Manufactures 575,013 411,930 711,852 512,047 Waste and Scrap 506,385 586,649 474,721 467,158 Waterway Improvement Materials 4,627,237 4,976,984 4,594,588 5,085,421 Total Interstate 1976 Actual - 478,481,771 tons 1976 Initialized - 450,154,491 tons -6% Intrastate 1976 1976 Commodity Group Actual Initialized Cash Grains 1,937,664 1,326,929 Iron & Non-ferrous Ores 4,017,485 3,073,749 Bauxite and Aluminum Ores Coal 54,062,582 51,201,796 Crude Petroleum 18,488,179 22,717,356 Petroleum Products 15,994,077 12,287,890 Industrial Chemicals 6,613,861 7,535,088 Ag. Chemicals/Fertilizers 237,700 830,726 Milled Grain 833,519 766,324 Lumber and Wood 864,313 1,070,737 Sugar and Molasses 119,472 125,965 Primary Metal Products 625,170 1,120,020 Fabricated Metal Products 200,129 140,367 Scrap Metals 167,555 143,064 Construction Materials 22,920,710 24,650,771 Mining Products 8,488,692 9,374,080 Non-Durable Manufactures 583,874 360,898 Durable Manufactures 2,048,484 1,564,193 Waste and Scrap 4,675,946 5,009,938 Waterway Improvement Materials 2,686,661 3,325,645 Total Intrastate 1976 Actual - 145,566,073 1976 Initialized - 146,625,535 +5;i E-23 Exhibit 11 ECONOMETRICS UTILIZED FOR GROWTH RATES APPLIED TO INITIALIZED 1976 COMMODITY MOVEMENTS For All Non-Regressable Flows Designated Interstate Di recti onl for all Group Commodity Group Cash Grains Forecasting 01 In 02 Metallic Ores Out 03 Non-Metallic Ores In 04 Coal Out 05 Crude Petroleum Out 06 Petroleum Products In 07 Industrial Chemicals In 08 Ag. Chemical /Fertilizers Out 09 Milled Grain In 10 Lumber/Wood Out 11 Sugar/Molasses In 12 Primary Metals Out 13 Fabricated Metals Out 14 Scrap Metal Out 15 Construction Material In 16 Mining Products Out 17 Non-Durable Manufacture In 18 Durable Manufacture Out 19 Waste and Scrap Out 20 Waterway Improvement Material In Econometric Factor ^ Grain Production Primary Metal Productions Primary Metal Production Coal Production (coal consumption intrastate) Petroleum Production Petroleum Production Chemical Production Chemical Production Food Production Lumber Production Food Production Primary Metal Production Metal Fabrication Primary Metal Production State Manufacturing State Manufacturing State Manufacturing State Manufacturing State Manufacturing State Manufacturing ^Direction determined by response of regressible flows. 2 Growth rates were determined on the basis of the log of the econometric regressed against time. The anti-log of the slope of this relationship is equivalent to the annual growth rate multiplier. E-24 IV. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ORIGIN AND DESTINATION OF TRADE A. STATE TO STATE TRADE ALLOCATION At the state level, an allocation process was used to generate state-to-state movements. This allocation was based on trends in the historic patterns of commodity movements between state pairs. Depending upon whether the outbound or inbound movements of a commodity designated for interstate forecasting, this allocation determined the destinations of outbound interstate movements or the sources of interstate inbound movements. This state-to-state allocation resulted in a mapping of 100 percent of the annual activity, with each partner state as a percentage of the state which was forecast. Exhibit 12 summarizes the process for allocating annual state-to-state commodity movements. The history of percentage distributions that results was forecast using rolling weighted averaging. As in the averaging of historical state-commodity directional flows, the most recent observation and that preceding it are weighted by 3 and 2, respectively. This averaging was per- formed annually in forecasting state-to-state percentages for the years 1977-2000. These percentages were then normal- ized to obtain final percentage distributions of future state-to-state commodity movements. Finally, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000 state-to-state distributions were applied to corresponding state forecast tonnages to obtain state-to-state tonnage forecasts. B. SUBREGION-TO-SUBREGION TRADE ALLOCATION Historical activity of both interstate and intrastate com- modity movements at the subregion-to-subregion level were analyzed to develop distributions which were applied to the state pair movements to obtain subregion-to-subregion movements. The subregion-to-subregion allocation process is graphically shown in Exhibit 13. As in the case of state-to-state movements, a normalized rolling weighted average was employed to forecast future subregion-to-subregion movement distributions. The sub- region-to-subregion allocation of commodity movements was then applied to the state-to-state forecast of commodity movements to provide a subregion-to-subregion base forecast of commodity movements for the Mid-America states. E-25 Exhibit 12 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY STATE-TO-STATE COMMODITY MOVEMENT ALLOCATION For each commodity the percentage allocations were developed as follows: '1-n r l-m SS l-x t0 RS l-y Movement SSj to RS. SS 1 to RS 2 Sending State Receiving State ss 1 RS 1 ss 2 RS 2 • ; SS x RS y Vol ume '1,1 '1,2 Percentage p i.i P l,2 SS; to RSy 'i,y i.y SS X to RS. SS x to RS 2 'x,l 'x,2 x,l 'x,2 SS X to RS y x,y x.y The percentage distribution for send states can therefore be expressed as: JLtr x,y and for receive states as: P x,y y-1 x,y JLlL x=l x,y Where: C = Commodity Y = Year SS = Sending State RS = Receiving State V = Commodity Movement Volume Between Two States P = Percentage of Volume Moved Between Two States to the Total Moved Between Each State and All Other States. "If x=y SS * RS V = J x y; x,y E-26 I Exhibit 13 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY SUBREGION-TO-SUBREGION COMMODITY MOVEMENT ALLOCATIONS For each commodity, year and state pair the percentage allocations were developed as follows: SS 1-x -1-n 'l-m to RS 1-y Send Subregion Receive Subregion SSR X RSR X SSR 2 RSR 2 • • SSR i RS Rj Movement SSR 1 to RSR X SSRj to RSR 2 Volume '1,1 '1,2 Percentage p i.i SSR X to RSR, SSR 2 to RSR 1 SSR 2 to RSR 2 'l.j '2,1 '2,2 l.j SSR 2 to RSR . SSR i to RSR X SSR i to RSR 2 SSR. to RSR. J v 2,j V i.l V i,2 V i,j r 2,j P i,l P. i,2 i.J The percentage distribution of state pair traffic assigned to each subregion pair can therefore be expressed as: p i,o ii i=l j=l V Where: C = Commodity Y = Year SS = Sending State RS = Receiving State SSR = Sending State Subregion RSR = Receiving State Subregion V = Commodity Movement Volume Between Two Subregions P = Percentage of Volume Moved Between Two Subregions to Total Moved Between Each State Pair. E-27 V. REVISION OF PRELIMINARY BASELINE FORECAST A. REVISION OBJECTIVE The objective of the revision was to improve the overall quality of the forecast by systematic adjustment of the desig- nated interstate and intrastate flows as necessary. In the preliminary forecast, all trade flows were forecast using forecast values of pertinent econometric variables that almost universally increased over time. Traffic was therefore expect- ed to be overstated in the preliminary forecast. The overstate- ment was largely attributed to state/commodity flows forecast to increase, despite historical activity that would indicate a definite and absolute decline in waterborne activity. For this reason, the major thrust of the revisions were directed at the identification and adjustment of there divergent factors in the forecast. B. COMPARISON OF PRELIMINARY FORECAST AND HISTORICAL FLOWS The initial step in forecast revision was a comparison of historical compounded 1969-1976 to 1976-2000 and 1980-2000 preliminary forecast growth rates to identify- commodity group performance which appeared inconsistent. Exhibit 14 presents the results of this comparison. The historical decline in 8 of the 20 commodity groups over this eight year period did not generate corresponding decreases in traffic during the forecast period. The rapid historical growths of cash grains, iron and nonferrous ores, agricultural chemicals and fertilizers, milled grains, scrap metals and durable and non-durable manufactures historically exhibited growth higher than those forecast. Despite these apparent incongruities, the results of a commodity-by-commodity review identified several considerations that reinforced the generally moderate growth generated by the preliminary forecast. The results supported a revision methodology focusing on the adjustment of forecast flows on the basis of historical trends as discussed below: Cash Grains — the 10.8 percent historical growth of this commodity group during the 1969-1976 period was related to the Russian Grain Deal of 1972, and subsequent exports to E-28 Exhibit 14 COMPOUND GROWTH RATES DESIGNATED DIRECTION AND INTERSTATE (percent) Group Historical 1969- 1976 Forecast 1976- 2000 1980- 2000 01 Cash Grains 10.8 2.7 2.4 02 Iron and Nonferrous Ores 7.9 4.3 5.1 03 Bauxite & Aluminum Ores — 4.6 4.2 04 Coal 2.0 1.5 1.3 05 Crude Petroleum (10.0) 2.6 2.4 06 Petroleum Products 4.9 3.5 3.5 07 Industrial Chemicals .8 5.6 5.3 08 Ag. Chemicals/Fertilizers 7.5 4.8 4.7 09 Milled Grain 16.2 3.3 2.7 10 Lumber & Wood (.4) 6.5 5.8 11 Sugar & Molasses (1.0) 4.3 4.0 12 Primary Metal Products (1.1) 4.1 3.4 13 Fabricated Metal Products (5.0) 3.8 3.8 14 Scrap Metals 10.9 2.2 4.3 15 Construction Materials (.5) 4.4 4.2 16 Mining Products (1.2) 1.3 1.2 17 Non-durable Manufactures 7.4 3.0 4.2 18 Durable Manufactures 6.2 2.7 4.0 19 Waste and Scrap 5.4 4.3 3.9 20 Wat. Improvement Mtls. (.3) 6.3 5.2 Total 1.1 3.1 3.0 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. E-29 other nations. During this period grain production expanded at only 3.5 percent per year. The future growth of waterborne cash grain flows will be at a reduced rate. The Mid-America states grain output will expand at only 1.8 percent per year and national exports will increase at an annual rate of 2.6 percent. In addition, an increasing share of agricultural exports (and domestic waterborne trade) will be in the form of milled grains. Milled Grains — which expanded at an annual rate of 16.2 percent, generally flowed to Louisiana and benefited from recent national export activity. The preliminary forecast generated 3.3 percent annual growth between 1976 and 2000. Agricultural exports will consist of large volumes of milled grains. Louisiana's receipts of milled grains were revised to comprise one-third of the state's cash grain receipts in 2000, yielding a 6 percent annual revised growth rate. Lumber and Wood Products — the slight decline registered by this commodity group was due in part to a recent adjustment in trading patterns, with interstate traffic increasing at an annual rate of 11 percent and intrastate traffic decreasing. Currently equal in volume to interstate flows, interstate traffic will continue its growth in the future. Primary Metals — in a manner similar to lumber products, interstate traffic registered an historical increase, while intrastate movements fell by 1.1 million tons in 1969 to .6 million in 1976. The production of metals in the Mid-America states will show a more than four-fold increase in annual growth during the forecast period, and growth in this commodity's waterborne traffic will also increase. Fabricated Metals — which registered a 5 percent annual decline historically, are of such low volume (.3m tons interstate, 2 million tons intrastate) that the impact of the recession on the waterborne movement of fabricated metal products is large. Growth in this group during the forecast period may be expected. Construction Materials — interstate movements increased through 1972, then fell while intrastate movements remained in the 18-21 million ton range. The majority of production is along the Ohio River, where shipments are made to destina- tions as close as just across the river, and as far away as Louisiana. The preliminary forecast over estimates the growth of this commodity by a wide margin. E-30 Mining Materials — primarily salt and marine shells, the dominant interstate traffic has steadily declined, while intrastate traffic registered 5.1 percent growth during the 1969-1974 period. A lower growth rate would appear to be more consistent with this historical trend. Waterway Improvement Materials — the movements of this commodity group are related to the development of new waterways and regular channel maintenance. The future of this commodity is not tied directly to the economic develop- ment of the region. C. ADJUSTMENT OF SELECTED FLOWS « After general review of the preliminary forecast, an in-depth review of the nearly 800 interstate and intrastate flows was performed. Two guidelines were followed: 1. Flows with declining historical trade activity were regressed to determine the rate of annual decrease. This rate would be applied to the initialized 1976 value to generate revised forecast flows. The underlying rationale behind this downward adjustment of flows was that a definite historical decrease in activity is the result of a combination of factors, not all economic in nature. Sources and availability, commodity life cycle, competitive modess, stockpiling and other procurement policies, produce substitution and other factors may have a dominant effect upon a commodity's waterborne trade activity. Given the general upward trend of all econometric factors in the Mid-America region despite the recession that followed the oil embargo, declining flows were treated as distinct combination of events that would lead to a continued decrease in activity. 2. Flows whose regressions indicate no activity in 1980 were supplied with a "step" value for 1980. This value was equal to one-half the weighted average of the historical flows. 3. In a very few cases, flows forecast to increase were adjusted to continue to increase but at a rate more consistent with historical trends. E-31 Exhibit 15 summarizes the flows that were revised. Nearly 68 flows were revised in all 20 commodity groups. Eight of these flows were flows formerly forecast by regres- sion. Of these flows, 6 underwent only minor adjustment as a 1980 transitiion value was added. Twelve of the revised flows were adjusted to increase, 56 to decrease. The overall impact of these adjustments proved to be rela- tively minor in impact on the total waterway system. The adjustments do add credibility to projected subregional and state level flows and recognize trends in declining waterway activity that are frequently overlooked. Once revised, the forecast was rerun at the state/com- modity/direction level on the CDC 6000 system. Exhibit 16 summarizes the comparative growth rates of the preliminary and revised forecasts. The lower overall growth rates, and adjustments to the twenty commodity groups can be seen. Notably, construction materials experience a down adjustment while coal, milled grains, and agricultural chemicals are projected to experience more rapid growth. Comparison of the historical trends of commodity group shares of system traffic and forecast values generally points to the increased validity of the baseline forecast, as shown in Exhibit 16. E-32 Exhibit 15 FLOWS REVISED TO HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES 01 02 03 Cash Grains Iron and Nonferrous Ores Aluminum & Bauxite Illinois 1- Tennessee 2- Alabama 3- Iowa 1-" Arkansas 1- Kentucky 1- *Missouri 3- 1980 Tennessee 1- 04 05 06 Coal Crude Petroleum Petroleum Products Ohio 2+ Alabama 3- Alabama 1+ Ohio 3+ Kentucky 2- Louisiana 1+ W. Virginia 3- Kentucky 3- Ohio 2 07 08 09 Industrial Chemicals Ag. Chemicals/ Fertilizer ♦Illinois 3- 1980 Milled Grain Alabama 3- Alabama 1- Iowa 1- Iowa 2- ♦Louisaina-special adjust- Missouri 1- Louisiana 2- ment + Ohio 1- Ohio 2- Mississippi 3- Pennsylvania 1- ♦Tennessee 1- W. Virginia 1- W. Virginia 3- 10 11 12 Lumber & Wood Products Sugar and Molasses Primary Metals Arkansas 2+ Missouri 1- Alabama 2- Kentucky 2-. Pennsylvania 1- Alabama 3- Mississippi 2- Kentucky 2+ Mississippi 3- • Tennessee 3 1980 13 14 15 Fabricated Metals Scrap Metals Construction Materials ♦Tennessee 2- 1980 Alabama 3+ Arkansas 1+ Missouri 3- Illinois 1- Pennsylvania 1- Illinois 3- Pennsylvania 3- Iowa 3- Tennessee 1+ Kentucky 1- Tennessee 3- Kentucky 3- Louisiana 3- Mississippi 3- 16 17 18 Mining Products Nondurable Manufactures Durable Manufactures Alabama 3- ♦Illinois 1- 1980 Alabama 3- ♦Kentucky 1- 1980 Mississippi 3- | ♦Nebraska 1- 1980 19 20 i Waste & Scrap Waterway Improvement Materials Louisiana 3- Arkansas 1+ Tennessee 2- Arkansas 3- Missouri 1- Key to Exhibit 15 + = flow forecast to increase in revised forecast - = flow forecast to decrease in revised forecast 1 = interstate inbound flow (designated) 2 = interstate outbound flow (designated) 3 = intrastate flow 1380 = a 1980 value was added to flows with zero flows in all forecast years as a transition. 1980 value equals one-half of the weighted average of the historical 1969-1976 flows. * = flow was originally regressed. When revised with a 1980 value, tne regressed forecast remained intact, with a 1980 value added for transition. E-33 t— (/> < < OS o LU X ce (— O 3 u_ O Q£ LU o z -J —J «c LU 3 CO us Z < *— » z < CO +-> o •^ o LU -O LU 1/1 •/— o i— • JZ z > X =5 LU LU O Q. a: 2: a o z o <£ UJ >- 3» cc »-* < (— z < »-* CC z < I-* O. _l z LU o cc u a. ,TS I OJ o LO O h- o > CSJ ■S ,ce « *j| t- on I— ol O O >oio 4) — < CM OS >> S_ ■a c I — © o S 00 o •r- en o r- -^ CM 41 t- a. -C 41 I 4-> L0 US O S •.- r-~ o o > en O S- 41 -^ CM c I ••- US o ENO •r- CT> O i— —< CM 41 S_ a. ■•- 9\ US S. us r-» es cn en OS en CTl CM o US LO us eo «r r*. CM en m ^ , LO us CM CM O o CM 1 CO US co us en PO i-^ eo CM *-< PO O r-* CM i-* o CM f* o **■ US •— « CM en o <» co CM en CM Lfl LO US r» cn o O CM CM r-» p~ en CM t—< _■ w—9 «• CM _, en o CM o •-* CM us »^ PO CM en CM LO en ^ en ^■ «-H * f~. en LO !•» en en o _* _! 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J=<«- •^ as 1— z: 1 01 Ol 01 z IO Ol «- 01 u en > > I/) •i— 01 01 u 01 c ■pa •^ ■M IO j* in > j= > 10 OS OS O 1/1 «/> V) 1- t(0 f- a 01 c 10 01 as as 10 •»-> IO J* c N o Jrf VI c •O 4-» ■0 •»-> ISI O u k IO Ol Ol at ■O O a. < *l t- OS OS >- O *0» •is 3 V) 4-> 3 VI 4* 10 k VI 01 e 01 e |^ « « •o vi 3 "Si 10 1/1 1: o» -^ 10 c 1/1 o»io VI VI •^ •»" X£ OI X 3 +■> IO Ol e c •0 •»— k VI 3 f— ■O VI >. IO IO VI c 2 IO Ol -* 4-> k 10 < X e oi «♦- 01 O 0' c l~ a. •*- +> u 01 01 p» > a. •r— E OS O w 01 +■> 41 •^» T3 X 3 2 ^H O Ol 01 X u 1— c # . ^ ^r ^"^ Mid-America / -<■* Production X S* y Surplus 'A -/*" — ' \ ~. /"" v •— Mid— America Con sumption Interstate Traffic Baseline Forecast _ Interstate Outbound Traffic Baseline Forecast 1 : 1 r 1969 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. E-54 The future transportation of western coal is therefore largely related to the demand for coal by waterside utilities in the Mid-America Region and the BN's plans for transship- ment facilities to meet it. The BN had identified 3 major transshipment sites for future development: (1) Metropolis, Illinois (Ohio River); (2) St. Louis, Missouri (Lower Missis- sippi River); and (3) Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota (Upper Mississippi River). Projected BN coal-hauling operations in 1985 are presented in Exhibit 28. The 1985 levels of trans- shipment are derived from analysis of various BN forecasts of coal traffic. Transshipment operations by the BN will permit the rail- road to extend economies of barge transportation and expand markets. Barging western coal to certain locations also avoids higher density mainlines and frequent railroad interchanges. On the basis of published information and existing and projected demand, projected transshipment operations for BN coal at St. Louis, Metropolis and Minneapolis were developed. Exhibit 29 presents a summary of forecast activity by trans- shipment facility for the forecast period. Discussion with the Burlington Northern Railroad confirmed the validity of the assumptions upon which this projection is based. St. Louis, Missouri, and Metropolis, Illinois are predicted to become the leading facilities with nearly equal operations of 30 million tons annually in 2000. Minnesota will transship 12 million tons of western coal. The economies inherent in the movements of integrated flotilla of jumbo and even larger hopper barges of coal on the broad lower reaches of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers with rapid discharge by 10,000 ton per hour continuous barge unloaders at waterside utilities are very large. The cost of this service is about one-third that of unit-train operations and absorbs the transshipment cost from rail to barge for destinations even short distances from the trans- shipment facility. Transshipment projections to subregions were developed on the basis of current stated demand for western coal, and available capacity for transshipment. On the Ohio River destinations were weighted on the basis of 1990 demand for inbound steam coal. Exhibit 30 graphically present the BN's coal haul operations in relation to the transshipment operation in Mid-America and the implicit Mid-America deficit. By 2000 approximately one-third of BN's coal will be transshipped, an amount constituting approximately one-half of the region defi- cit. With existing commitments of the Mid-America to coastal utilities and other consumers, the 73 million tons transshipped to barges will represent about one-third of the deficit and this waterborne share of the transportation of coal is consis- tent with historical levels. E-55 Exhibit 28 1985 BURLINGTON NORTHERN COAL-HAUL OPERATIONS (All Purposes) (millions of tons) Destination Purpose Tons Denver, Colorado Rail Interchange & Local Consumption 33.0 Kansas City, Missouri Rail Interchange & Local Consumption 30.0 Chicago, Illinois Local Consumption 4.0 Peoria, Illinois* Local Consumption 10.0 Superior, Wisconsin Great Lakes Transshipment A Local Consumption 8.0 St. Louis, Missouri^ Local Consumption 5.0 Minneapolis, Minnesota Local Consumption 10.0 Other Destinations Rail Interchange & Local Consumption 9.0 St. Louis, Missouri Barge Transshipment 16.0 Metropolis, Illinois 3 Barge Transshipment 21.0 Minneapolis, Minnesota 4 Barge Transshipment 3.0 Total Coal Transported All Purposes 155.0 The Burlington Northern interchanges with the Chicago 4 Illinois Midland for transshipment at Havana, Illinois on the Illinois waterway. 5 million tons of Montana coal is trans shipped at Havana for delivery by barge to Chicago utilities annually. 2 St. Louis currently sends more than 3 million tons of western coal to other states by barge. Transshipment facilities at Metropois are in operation. 4 Minnesota terminals handled 0.8 million tons of outbound interstate coal and 1.6 million tons of intrastate coal in 1976. Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. E-56 Exhibit 29 FORECAST OF RAIL-TO-BARGE TRANSSHIPMENT BY BURLINGTON NORTHERN RAILROAD 1 (millions of tons) St. L( dui's, Missouri Metropol is, 111 i noi s Minneapo' is, Minnesota Upper Mi ssissippi to Ohio River to Lower Mississippi to Total Year LM UM OH LM UM OH LM UM OH 980 10 10.0 985 16 5 16 2 1 40.0 990 22 2 6 17 6 2 55.0 000 30 8 23 8 4 73.0 reas erved AK MS LA GC AK MS LA GC TN ID KY OH WV 10 MI WI TN ID KY OH WV ey LM = Lower Mississippi Destinations UM = Upper Mississippi Destinations OH = Ohio River Destinations GC * Gulf Coast Standard state abbreviations ource: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. estimates based upon analysis of published information and discussion with Burlington Northern Railroad. E-57 Exhibit 30 FORECAST OF BURLINGTON NORTHERN RAILROAD COAL DELIVERY AND TRANSSHIPMENT Millions of Short Tons 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 Source: Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. E-58 Efforts were made to maximize the impact on projections based from commitments by industry to supply or use western coal. These commitments by railroads and utilities can be seen as consensus of opinion with respect to the future of western coal and were accompanied by financial expenditures towards the realization of objectives. This analysis led to transshipment, and rail haulage levels for a new energy re- source that are consistent with the experience of the past. E-59 IX. LOCK DEMAND AND DIVERSION FORECASTING -FLOWS PAST A POINT A. OBJECTIVE In order to support Mid-America ports Study analysis of lock constraints along the inland waterways, a methodology to determine histoircal and forecast flows past points was developed. In addition, procedures to divert any traffic demand in excess of lock capacity were developed. These efforts were separate from various studies of capacities of specific locks on the waterway network and may be applied to any waterway constriction. B. FLOWS PAST A POINT The determination of flows past a point was done through mapping of subregion-to-subregion trade. Flows past a point must pass from one set of subregions to another set, the bound- ary being the point under study. By specifying all those regions in either set, any flow to the subject set from any unspecified subregion, or from the subject set to any unspeci- fied subregion had to pass by the point under study. Flows between subregions in the specified set or between subregions in the unspecified set do not pass by the point. Locks were therefore identified by specifying the relatively few "upstream" subregions. Analysis was performed for all locks identified as pos- sible constraints by TAMS. Exhibit 31 presents a tabulation of the subregions assined to the "upriver" set for each lock. Two aspects of this analysis should be noted: • Locks located along a subregion (and not at a junction between subregions) were of necessity "sited" above or below that subregion on the basis of whether the majority of tonnage within the subregion was sent and received above or below the lock. E-60 Exhibit 31 LOCK SUBREGIONS Lock /Dam At Listed Assigned S ubregions /Comments Lock and Dam 26 Mississippi River (73 million) est. 257/132 Above 232 231 492 152 491 151 131 541 133 134 135 Gall i polls L/D Ohio River Mile 702 (47 million) 352/482 Above 481 483 353 354 484 485 381 382 383 352 95% of 351 is above lock. Kentucky L/D Tennessee River (31 million) 178 Above 178 425 423 426 015 Lockport L/D Illinois Waterway (33 million) 135 Above 135 541 Brandon Road L/D Illinois Waterway (32 million) 134 Above 135 541 52% above lock. Dresden Island L/D Illinois Waterway (25.4 million) 134 Above 135 541 Marseilles L/D Illinois Waterway (32 million) 134 Above 134 135 541 73% of 134 above lock. Starved Rock L/D Illinois Waterway (36 million) 134 Above 134 135 541 73%+ of 134 above lock. Peoria L/D Illinois Waterway (57 million) 133/134 Above 134 135 541 100% of 134 above lock. LaGrange L/D Illinois Waterway (59 million) Above 133 134 135 541 88% of 153 1975 tons above lock. Inner Harbor Lock New Orleans, Louisiana (30 million) 182 Above Oil 244 Vermilion Lock Louisiana (45 million) 181 Above 181 Port Allen-Morgan City Canal Locks, Louisiana (30 million) 186 Above 186 E-61 For those locks serving multi-accessed sub- regions (such as the Gulf Intercoastal waterway, Inner Harbor canal and Port Allen-Morgan City- canals), it was not possible to determine the historical or projected use of a lock by this methodology. Traffic into and out of the sub- region containing the subject lock was there- fore reported. C. DIVERSION OF EJCCESS DEMAND When the demand for a lock exceeds its capacity, cargo will generally incur delays in passage and ultimately be diverted to alternative modes of transport capable of moving it in a more economic and/or timely manner. The underlying principle for the determination of diver- sion of traffic from constrained locks is that higher value goods will generally incur higher inventory costs during delays, have transportation costs that are a smaller portion of their total value, move in smaller more easily re-routed lot sizes, are subject to less institutional transportation momentum, and can be more easily diverted to and absorbed- by alternative transportation modes. Exhibit 32 compares graphically value per ton and percent share of waterborne traffic for the 20 Mid- America Commodity Groups. The generally inverse trend is evi- dent as well as the relationship between value per ton and the share of waterborne traffic which was used as a surrogate. The diversion of traffic was based on four sets of commod- ity groups ranked by share of traffic relating to the suscepti- bility to diversion. Exhibit 33 depicts the composition of these four groups and the characteristics of their diversion. D. DETERMINATION OF CONSTRAINED LOCK PERFORMANCE A methodology for profiling the performance of lock under conditions of overdemand was developed which addresses diver- sion, relief, and recaption of diverted cargo. Locks in this condition were projected to be constrained at their capacity a period of ten years in the high forecast, 15 years in the mdeium forecast and throughout the forecast period in the low forecast. Following the period of constraint, the lock would E-62 Exhibit 32 COMPARISON OF COMMODITY GROUP VALUE AND SHARE OF WATER30RNE TRAFFIC 1,500i 1,000 Approximate Value/Ton (dollars) 500 ^1,500 - I .■i, rl 1 I X I I - 1.000 500 X 04 06 01 15 07 05 09 08 20 16 02 12 19 10 18 17 11 14 13 03 VALUE PER TON (approximate) 30 Share Traffic (%) 20 10 01 Cash Grains 02 Iron & Ores 03 Alum. Si Bauxite 04 Coal 05 Crude Petroleum 06 Petroleum Products 07 Industrial Chemicals 08 Ag. Chem. Fert 09 Milled Grains 10 Lumber 11 Sugar and Mol. 12 Primary Metals 13 Fab Metals 14 Scrap 15 Construction Materials 16 Mining Products 17 Non-Ourable Mfrs. 18 Durable Mfrs. 19 Waste 20 Wat. Imp. Mtls. 30 20 10 04 06 01 15 17. 05 09 08 20 16 02 12 19 10 18 17 11 14 13 03 SHARE OF WATERBORNE TRAFFIC E-63 Exhibit 33 DIVERSION OF TRAFFIC Commodity Sets Relative High Medium-High Medi urn-Low Low Sensitivity Diversion Diversion Diversion Diversion Commodity 02 Iron and 08 Ag. Chem/Fert. 05 Crude 01 Cash Group Metal Ores Petrol eum Grains 03 Alum, and Baux. 09 Milled Grains 07 Industrial Chemicals 04 Coal 10 Lumber 16 Mining Products 15 Construction 06 Petroleum 11 Sugar and Molasses 20 Wat. Imp. Mtls. Materials Products 12 Primary Metal s 13 Fabricated Metal s 14 Scrap Metals 17 Non-Durable Mfrs. 18 Durable Mfrs. 19 Waste Maximum Up to 75 Percent Up to 50 Percent Up to 25 Percent As necessary Diversion to meet lock capaci ty Share of System Traffic 8.6 Percent 12.5 Percent 21.4 Percent 57.5 Percent E-64 recover by the next forecast period 95 percent of the diverted tonnage in the high forecast or 75 percent of the diverted ton- nage in the medium forecast. Exhibit 34 graphically presents the major components of congested lock performance. All diver- ted tonnage is composed of upbound and downbound cargo in proportion to their unconstrained flows past the lock. The diverted cargo, allocated by commodity, and subregional pair on a proportional basis, is then subtracted from subregional pairs flows. E. SUMMARY The operation of locks vital to domestic commerce operat- ing under conditions of severe overdemand are a recent challenge facing the nation. Still in the early phases of congestion, the reactions of shippers to the lengthy delay of goods in transit are not yet clear. The methodology adopted for the Mid- America Ports Study is designed to be conceptually consistent with expected shipper reactions to congestion, yet applicable systemwide. The time periods during which locks are constrained and then recover portions of their trade are realistic and valu- able to analysis of the operations of the waterways system. Project lock performance in the forecast is separated from the various policy issues that currently dominate national waterways policy and legislation. E-65 Exhibit 34 COMPONENTS OF CONSTRAINED LOCK PERFORMANCE COMPONENTS Millions of Tons 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 High Scenario Recovery Medium Scenario Recovery Traffic Recovery in High Scenario Over Medium Scenario Low Scenario Constraint 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Note: Only the medium scenario traffic demand line is shown. E-66 X. LIMITATIONS AND AREAS FOR FUTURE IMPROVEMENT IN THE DATABASE AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY A. OVERVIEW The Mid-America Ports Study represents a major step for- ward in national domestic transportation planning. As one of its components, the forecast played a vital suporting role during the project but was not the primary objective of the study. However, each step of the methodology has direct appliability to the analysis of coastal, river, Great Lakes and inter-territorial domestic navigation. This applicability has already been realized in a number of studies with diverse objectives. B. LIMITATIONS 1. Historical Time Span Given the many precedents established in this effort, it is important to identify the limitations which may be addressed and hopefully avoided in future efforts. It is most important to appreciate the limitations of projecting twenty-five years of freight traffic on the basis of eight years of historical data. Because the Army Corps of Engineers has collected and maintained data for many years, in several forms, it is theo- retically possible to load, analyze, and translate into a consistent format the trade of years prior to 1969. It would be far more efficient to continue to incorporate future years into the database, and given the significance of recent trends in transportation, far more worthwhile. Many developments of long-term economic and industrial significance occurred during the 1969-1976 period. The recession that followed the Oil Embargo of 1973 and the four- fold increase in the cost of petroleum severely upset long- term business investment and all industries related to it. The rapid increase in petroleum importation, largely to deep E-67 draft ports in the U.S. Gulf, countered the peaking and subsequent decline in absolute levels of on- and offshore U.S. oil production. The development of long-term grain export obligations to the Soviet Union and other nations greatly increased cash grain and milled grain shipments to Lower Mississippi River terminals. Advancements in electric furnace technology permitted the expansion of the steel industry in diverse Mid-America locations. Lastly, the initial movement of western coal from several transshipment sites opened yet another pattern of waterborne commerce that will evolve into significant future flows. Each of these factors merits extensive in-depth analysis. Several factors warrant examination in the near future, and high returns in the precision and confidence of the resulting conclusion can be expected. Other factors, notably the transportation of western coal, are dependent upon the develop- ment of national energy policy, followed by commitment to it by utilties, industry and the railroads. The most notable absence of published projections was in the area of western coal transportation. There are other developments in waterborne transportation that must be addressed in a similar manner. The utilization and production of chemicals to support the continued industrial development of all sectors of the Mid-America Region and the intensive agribusiness industry have potentially large impacts on the waterways. The importation of iron and non-ferrous ores, manganese and steel products are contingent upon the resolution of many challenges facing the U.S. steel industry. Trends in the consumption of coal by industry also warrant in-depth analysis as it becomes possible to translate demand into waterborne transportation patterns. 2. Economic and Non-Economic Forces The methodology of the Mid-America Ports Study forecast sought to identify meaningful relationships between historical econometrics and historical trade. It did not seek high R 2 at the expense of any rational explanation of the relationship. While the methodology was generally successful, it was recog- nized from the outset that the waterborne traffic of many com- modity groups would not respond to econometrics. As discussed, many commodity groups have values, logistical patterns, volumes, and lot sizes that dominate the development of their industrial parent or their market. E-68 The assumption that such commodities will react to the performance of any econometric has great validity in general (as shown at the outset of this Appendix in Exhibit 1). For any specific commodity, particularly those of high value, low volume and low waterborne share, the correlation is less assured. As opposed to the high volume movements of energy, agri- cultural and construction bulk commodities through large, integrated, private facilities, higher value cargos with wide-ranging characteristics and handling requirements move through public and private general cargo terminals. These facilities are far more dependent upon the preference of large numbers of shippers and consignees for waterways transportation These shippers and consignees are in turn less dependent upon the waterborne transportation infrastructure and percieve of a variety of modal solutions to their transportation problems. This compounds the difficulty of determining waterborne trade and emphasizes the validity of using historical trade as the basis for such projections. In this respect the methodology represents a major step towards assisting public and private general cargo facility planners. C. AREAS FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT The opportunities for further development are of two types those directly resulting from this forecast; and, the analysis of various types of transportation issues. From the efforts of this project several analyses result- ing from this study are possible. Major opportunities include: • Preparation of an historical and forecast trade database determining ton-miles of transporta- tion. This analysis will identify trends in the utilization of waterways, and the fleet required to meet its demand revenue base. Equip- ment requirements and the composition of the fleet can be fleet determined. This in turn would permit the future financial performance of the towing and barge industry to be assessed. • Lock and Dam analysis. With adjustments to the database, additional subregional delineations can be placed at locks and dams. This refine- ment will increase the accuracy of lock perfor- E-69 mance projections. The possibility of matching loaded barges with backhaul cargoes will pro- duce forecasts of empty barge demand for lock capacity. In addition to the opportunities that result directly from the Mid-America Ports Study Forecast, many new opportunities for the improved analysis of domestic waterborne commerce and its interface with competing transport modes and international shipping are at hand. Among these are: • Port traffic analysis and forecasting. Coded channels combined to form ports can now be utilized to examine the flows, vessel com- modities and origin/destinations of historical and forecast domestic cargo. Interaction be- tween domestic and foreign traffic can be identified by individual marine terminal if necessary. Port interests can identify their waterborne hinterlands with a new accuracy and precision, thus enhancing their marketing opportunities. • Competitive modal analysis. Flows of oil, coal, grain and other bulk commodities can be iden- tified and opportunities for modal interchange can be studied. • The relatively aged domestic fleet of the United States and its replacement requirements can be compared to forecasts of future domestic coastal trade. Lot sizes, origins and destinations can be used to determine technologies suitable for domestic marine transportation in the future. The Mid-Amerca Ports Study forecast emerged as a valuable product in its own right with clear utility to both government and the private sector. As the foundation of a new and con- tinuing capability in domestic waterborne analysis and fore- casting, it has served a second and significant function. E-70 MID-AMERICA PORTS STUDY APPENDIX F INTERSTATE COMPACTS IN MID-AMERICA AND PROCEDURES GOVERNING CIVIL WORKS PROJECTS INTERSTATE COMPACTS IN MID-AMERICA Two interstate compacts support riverport development in Mid-America. They are associated with the Port of Metropolitan St. Louis and the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway. Neither of these arrangements may be directly replicable because of the special circumstances associated with them. However, both represent a body of experience with interstate cooperation for port development that may be instructive to others who wish to maximize the benefits of interstate cooper- at i on . Port of Metropolitan St. Louis The Bi-State Development Agency was established as a body corporate and politic by a compact between the states of Missouri and Illinois, which was approved by the Congress in 1950. The compact created a Bi-State Metropolitan District embracing the City of St. Louis and the counties of St. Louis, St, Charles and Jefferson in Missouri and the counties of St. Clair, Madison, and Monroe in Illinois. The Agency is governed by ten commissioners, five of whom are appointed by the governor of Missouri and five by the governor of Illinois. All are residents of the district. The Bi-State Development Agency is empowered to plan, construct, maintain, own, and operate certain types of facilities, including bridges, tunnels, airports, wharves, F-l docks, grain elevators, and terminal facilities of all types. It also has authority to make studies and plans for submission to the communities involved for coordination of streets, highways, parkways, parking areas, terminals, water supply, and sewerage, recreational facilities, land-use patterns and other matters in which joint or coordinated action of commun- ities within the district will be beneficial. Although the Agency has no taxing power, it may charge and collect fees for use of its facilities. It may issue bonds secured by revenues derived from its facilities or by the Agency's property. It may receive contributions, grants or other monies from municipalities, counties, states or the federal government. The Agency has been self-supporting since 1954. From inception of the compact in 1949 until the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council was created in 1965, the Bi-State Development Agency served as the general planning agency for the metropolitan district. The compact provides that the Agency make plans for development of the district and a master plan for this was prepared and submitted to the two legisla- tures in 1951 . Subsequently the Agency helped to create a new regional planning body, working with the two state highway departments and others to set up a planning mechanism for complying with the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1962. F-2 The Bi-State Development Agency is the Lead organization for integrating and coordinating development of the Port of Metropolitan St. Louis. Its activities can go considerably beyond coordination of planning efforts for the constituent port authorities. For example, after a detailed study of the need for additional harbor facilities in the St. Louis metropol itan area, the Bi-State Development Agency leased a tract of land from the U.S. government for development of wharf and terminal facilities at Granite City, Illinois. Using proceeds of a $1.5 million revenue bond issue, the Agency constructed a dock and warehouse with rail and highway access in 1956. Later it extended the dock, installed a dry-bulk commodity unloading facility, and constructed a climate controlled warehouse. In 1975 the Agency sold the wharf and terminal facilities at the Granite City Harbor to the Tri-City Regional Port District for $730,000, toward which the Port District will pay $73,000 annually for a period of ten years. Tennessee-Tombi gbee Waterway The Tennessee-Tombi gbee Waterway project has been a concern of the federal government and participating states for several decades. When completed, the waterway will extend from the Pickwick pool on the Tennessee River southward through Mississippi and Alabama where the Black Warrior and Tombigbee Rivers converge at Demopolis, Alabama. It requires construction of six dams and eleven locks and a 27-mile canal F-3 to join the natural waterways. Estimated federal investments approximate $1.8 billion. The Corps of Engineers will provide a navigation channel nine feet deep in the shallowest portion. Construction began in 1972, The Tennessee-Tombi gbee project has always been charac- terized by strong political sponsorship. Senator John Stennis of Mississippi referred to it as "the greatest economic mile- stone since the Louisiana Purchase" and gave it commensurate support. Governor George Wallace of Alabama said, "I'll do everything in my power to see that this worthwhile project is carried through to the finish". Although President Carter's 1977 review of the budget prepared by the previous adminis- tration called for "serious reexamination" of this project along with others, subsequent reviews endorsed the project. Development of the waterway is promoted and coordinated by the Tennessee-Tombi gbee Waterway Development Authority under an interstate compact to which Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida adhere. Congress approved the compact in 1958. The authority has thirty members, divided equally among the participating states. Each state is represented by its governor and five citizens appointed by the governor. Chairmanship rotates annually among participating states. The federal government's participation in the Tennessee- Tombi gbee projects is contingent on appropriate action by local F-4 sponsors with respect to highways,, bridges, sewers, water supply systems, drainage facilities, and riverport terminals. Both Alabama and Mississippi are responding to these require- ments. The 1962 session of the Mississippi legislature author' ized formation of the Tombigbee River Valley Waterway Manage- ment District and gave it the powers necessary to fulfill local requirements for the Mississippi portion of the project. During its 1967 session the Alabama legislature authorized creation of a public corporation called the Tombigbee Valley Development Authority for the purpose of developing the Tombigbee River and its tributary streams. In December 1967 Alabama voters approved a $10 million bond issue to finance participation in the interstate undertaking and Alabama's associated projects. The 1975 Alabama legislature authorized issuance of up to $45 million in general obligation bonds to finance improve- ments to state-owned facilities at the Port of Mobile. The law was signed by the governor on March 10, 1975, and approved by the voters as a constitutional measure in an election later in the year. A public corporation called the Alabama Port Authority acts as the state agency for issuing and selling the bonds and for approving disbursement of the proceeds. This Authority consists of the governor, the director of finance, one member of the Alabama Senate, one F-5 member of the House of Representatives, and the director of the State Docks Department. The Legislature's intent with respect to the uses to which the bond proceeds are to be directed is stated as f o L Lows : ... to the extent deemed feasible in the sole discretion of Alabama State Docks Department, with approval of the Alabama Ports Authority, the proceeds of said bonds will be used in preparation for and in anticipation of the demands that will be made upon, and the opportunities that will be available to the Department as a result of the opening of the Tennessee-Tombi gbee Waterway System, During 1976 the Alabama Port Authority sold its first issue of $15 million in general obligation bonds. The proceeds of that issue are being used to expand container facilities and make other improvements at the Port of Mobile, including a new general cargo berth, additional warehouse space, electrical system improvements, installation of dust control systems in grain handling facilities and modernization of bulk materials handling systems. At this writing the federal project (construction of the waterway itself) is the subject of a challenge in the federal F-6 courts. A coalition of railroad and environmental interests brought suit against the Corps of Engineers, arguing that the project as constructed is exceeding authorized specifications Meanwhile, the project's continuing construction requirements are set forth in the Administration's F.Y. 1980 budget. F-7 PROCEDURES GOVERNING CIVIL WORKS PROJECTS Waterway development projects are initiated by Local interests, authorized by the Congress, and constructed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers under its Civil Works Program. State and local officials interviewed in the course of the study all recognized that the Corps performs a vital role in waterway development. The following summary recapitulates step-by-step development of a typical Corps project on the inland waterways of the United States. 1. Local interests identify a need for improved navigation, flood protection, or other resource deve lopment . 2. Citizens and local government officials may petition their representatives in the Congress. 3. A Congressional committee (or an Act of Congress) may then authorize the Corps of Engineers to investigate the problem and submit a report. 4. The Chief of Engineers assigns the investigation to the appropriate Division Engineer who refers it to the District Engineer for the area to be studied. 5. When study funds are appropriated by the Congress and released to the District, the District Engineer F-8 works closely with local authorities and other federal agencies in performing the required engineering, economic and environmental studies (which include consideration of a range of alternative solutions to the problem under study). Public meetings are held to obtain the views of local interests on the type and extent of improve- ment needed. The District Engineer submits his report and a draft environmental statement to the Division Engineer, who reviews them, adds his recommendations (if any), and forwards them to the Chief of Engineers. The report and the associated environmental impact statement are referred to the appropriate review agency, as follows: a. The Board of Engineers for Rivers and Harbors reviews the report if it relates to work outside the alluvial valley of the Mississippi River. b. The Mississippi River Commission serves as the review agency on all work pertaining to the alluvial valley of the Mississippi River. After the review agency submits its report and recommendations to the Chief of Engineers, he F-9 coordinates it with other federal agencies, the Council on Environmental Quality, and Governors of the affected states. 10. After considering the views so collected, the Chief of Engineers sends the report and the final environmental impact statement to the Secretary of the Army, who obtains the views of the Office of Management and Budget before sending them to the Congress. 11. If the report recommends a project the Congress may include it in an authorization bill, which if enacted into law constitutes official authorization of the project. 12. The Chief of Engineers may then request appro- priations for construction and post authori- zations studies. 13. The Appropriations Committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate conduct public hearings each year at which local officials may present requests for the appropriations to carry out authorized projects. 14. When approved by the committees, construction funds for specific projects are included in the annual Civil Works bill. F-10 15. After the Civil Works bill has been approved by both Houses of the Congress and signed by the President, the Corps of Engineers proceeds with const ruction. The Corps of Engineers performs investigations of major water and water-related resource projects only under specific authorizations by the Congress. Such authorizations are in the form of laws enacted by the Congress or resolutions by a House or Senate Public Works Committee. Section 1 of the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-251) estab- lished the two-phase authorization procedure for major projects. Smaller studies may be performed by the Corps under its general continuing authority, which permits the Secretary of the Army and the Chief of Engineers to undertake investigations and construction of projects having a federal cost no greater than $2 million. For small flood control projects in areas that have been designated disaster areas within the past five years, the general continuing authority sets a $3 million limit. Other public works that may be performed under the Corps' continuing authority include projects not exceeding $250,000 for clearing and snagging or for emergency bank protect i on. 1>U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE. 1 9 7 9-28 1 " 06 7 / 2 05 F-ll PENN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES ADQDQ712b4T7M OIS IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MINNESOTA MlSSiSSlP, WEST. 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