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I'd M/3/US National Climate Program Five- Year Plan 1989-1993 PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY JUN3 01989 DOCUMENTS COLLECTION U.S. Depository Copy December 1988 U.S. Department of Commerce NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE NOAA 11400 Rockville Pike Rockville, Maryland 20852 National Climate Program Five- Year Plan 1989-1993 PENNSYLVANi UN!VERSI i JUN3 01989 DOCUMENTS COLLECTI U.S. Depository Copy Prepared in the National Climate Program Office National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PARTICIPATING AGENCIES Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Agency for International Development Council on Environmental Quality Environmental Protection Agency Federal Emergency Management Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation December 1988 FOREWORD The Five-Year Plan for the National Climate Program fulfills the need, expressed by Congress, to cre- ate a framework for the nation to improve our ability to cope with, understand, and predict climate. The Plan presents broad outlines for program needs over the next few years and enumerates specific goals to be incorporated into plans of participating agencies. Scientists and administrators agree, the tasks ahead are far beyond what can be accomplished in a short time. This Plan recognizes resource and time limita- tions, and attempts to set realistic priorities. The recommended program will produce early and useful results for the most immediate needs while building the scientific knowledge base required in the longer term. This Plan covers the fiscal years 1989 to 1993. It sets the goals and objectives for the coming half- decade and summarizes the present status of the U.S. National Climate Program. The most notable ac- complishments over the past few years are briefly mentioned. More detailed information can be found in the National Climate Program's Annual Reports to Congress and the President. The federal government is the sponsor and major participant in the National Climate Program along with the states, the university community, the National Academy of Sciences, and the private sector. This Plan is intended primarily as a guide for government agencies to structure their climate programs, within their individual mission responsibilities. This Plan represents one part of the Nation's effort to understand and respond to Global Environmental Change. s- Robert A. Mosbacher Secretary of Commerce in TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Background 1 Strategy underlying the five-year plan 1 Main components of the National Climate Program 2 Program implementation 3 Expected accomplishments over the next five years 4 Major reports 4 The National Climate Program and international activities 5 Budget 6 THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 6 1. INTRODUCTION 7 1 . 1 Background 7 1.2 Accomplishments and perspectives 9 1 .3 Structure of the National Climate Program 11 1.4 International scientific programs related to the National Climate Program 13 1 .4. 1 The World Climate Programme 13 1.4.2 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme 13 1 .5 Management of the National Climate Program 13 2. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM 15 2 . 1 Climate Data, Analysis, and Services 15 2.1.1 Monitoring the climate system 16 2.1.2 Climate data and products and services 17 2.1.3 Climatic change and variability 17 2.2 Climate Modeling and Prediction 19 2.2.1 Physical processes in climate models 20 2.2.2 Climate prediction 22 2.2.3 Climatic change caused by greenhouse gases 25 2.2.4 Experimental climate forecast program 25 2.3 The Impact of Climatic Change on the Environment 25 2.3.1 Consequences of climatic change for natural and managed ecosystems 26 2.3.2 Integrated regional impact studies 26 2.3.3 Response strategies 27 3. NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM BUDGET 28 REFERENCES CITED 29 Appendix A. The National Climate Program Act 30 Appendix B. The Global Climate Protection Act 34 Appendix C. Scientific programs and activities related to the National Climate Program 36 Appendix D. Congressional request to EPA for impact and policy studies 38 Appendix E. National Climate Program Policy Board Members 41 Appendix F. Acronyms 44 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY "It is the purpose of the Congress in this Act to establish a National Climate Program that will assist the Nation and the world to understand and respond to natural and man- induced climate processes and their implications ... The Na- tional Climate Program Office shall be the lead entity respon- sible for administering the Proqram . . . Each Federal officer, employee, department and agency involved in the Program shall cooperate with the Secretary of Commerce in carrying out the provisions of this Act ... The National Climate Pro- gram Office shall work with the National Academy of Sciences and other private, academic. State, and local groups in preparing and implementing the 5-year Plan and the Pro- gram ... Taken from the National Climate Program Act BACKGROUND The National Climate Program Act (see Appendix A) directs the periodic formulation of a new Five-Year Plan for the program. The first Five-Year Plan covered the years 1979 to 1984. An interim plan was written to cover the period 1984 through 1986. This Five-Year Plan provides a framework for planning and actions for fiscal years 1989 to 1993. The Plan builds on the experience gained since the program's in- ception in 1978, on a review of the National Climate Pro- gram (NCP) conducted by the National Academy of Sciences in 1985, on interactions between the programs of participat- ing U.S. government agencies and institutions, and on the World Climate Programme. Many recent events have served to focus public attention and concern on climate and its variability: • An extreme El Nino event in 1982-83 may have con- tributed to reduced fish catches, surf damage along coastlines from South America to California, and changes in worldwide rainfall patterns, causing floods along the West coast of South America and droughts in Asia. • Recurrent drought in the African Sahel and East Africa and an associated famine triggered massive international relief efforts in 1984-85. • Water levels in the Great Lakes and the Great Salt Lake reached record highs, causing soil erosion, flooding, and the loss of agricultural land, homes, and businesses. • Many believe that the apparent 0.5 degree Celsius global warming over the past century may be partially related to atmospheric increases in C0 2 and other trace gases. • Concern has been raised at the observed decrease in the amount of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica and the world in general during the past decade and its relation- ship to the increased global use of chlorofluorocarbons. Not all climate fluctuations are bad, however. Atlantic hur- ricane frequencies have been below normal for six of the last eight years, and several mild winters have recently helped ameliorate the burden of heating costs. Several other significant activities related to the National Climate Program have taken place recently: • A Congressional request to the Environmental Protec- tion Agency calls for an analysis of the potential im- pact of climate change caused by increased levels of C0 2 and other trace gases, and on stratospheric ozone deple- tion. • International agreement has been reached on regulat- ing the emission of substances that deplete the strato- spheric ozone layer (the Montreal Protocol). • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) agreed in 1987 to establish an intergovernmental Panel for carrying out internationally coordinated assessments of the magnitude, timing, and potential impact of cli- mate change. • A joint communique from the December 1987 US-USSR Summit pledged both countries to pursue joint studies in global climate and environmental change through cooperation in areas of mutual concern, such as protec- tion and conservation of atmospheric ozone and through increased data exchanges. Over the next decade, national and international attention on issues of global climate change will likely increase. This document provides a plan for federal agencies to address this challenge by developing an improved understanding of cli- mate change and its likely impacts on society. STRATEGY UNDERLYING THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN The primary goal of the National Climate Program is to understand and predict natural and man-induced climatic change and its variation. Climate is often viewed as a "national resource". Strategies for adapting to natural varia- bility are a key component of the program. There is mount- ing evidence that the chemical composition of the Earth's atmosphere is being influenced by man's activities. Although we do not fully understand these processes, it is believed that this may lead to a global warming within the next few de- cades. In order to assess the full implications of these changes, activities of the National Climate Program over the next five years will focus on the following three problem areas: (i) Accurate diagnosis of the current state of the entire climate system and the factors having an influence on climate, to detect any changes in the current state of the climate system. This will require concentrated efforts to develop an effi- cient, operational climate monitoring system using recent ad- vances in observational technology for both in situ and re- mote sensing, and to implement a comprehensive climate data management and analysis system. Special emphasis must also be given to establishing an accurate data base for measuring and analyzing changes in climate caused by man's activities, (ii) Exploration of the predictability of climate on time scales of months to decades, and the projection of a climatic change caused by an increasing concentra- tion of greenhouse gases. For all time scales, more realistic models of the dynamic and thermodynamic coupling between the oceanic and at- mospheric components of the climate system need to be de- veloped. Improved parameterization schemes for cloud radi- ation interactions and ice albedo are required. Considerable research efforts are also needed with regard to the treatment of the exchange processes between the atmosphere, the ocean and the land surface, including the biosphere, and cryospheric processes. In addition to research, progress in the develop- ment of more reliable climate models is critically dependent on the organization of large-scale observational programs to provide the data needed, (iii) Assessment of the impact of a greenhouse gas-induced climatic change on the environment, and analysis as to what policy decisions can be taken in order to reduce harmful consequences. This will require research on both evaluating to what ex- tent increased emissions of greenhouse gases modify the at- mosphere's radiation balance, and how a resulting climatic change might influence natural ecosystems and human ac- tivities (e.g., agriculture, forestry, water resource manage- ment, and energy production). Climate Data, Analysis, and Services This component is designed to create an easily accessible knowledge base of up-to-date data and information for general use in describinq and understanding climate and its variations. Over the next five years, the emphasis in this ele- ment will be on establishing an efficient and reliable system for long-term monitoring of the climate system, and mak- ing climate data and information more readily available through improved climate data services. This is especially important since the volume of weather and climate data over the next few years (from new satel- lites, new automatic weather observing systems, international research projects, and other sources) is expected to increase about 1000 times over what is presently available. This mas- sive increase will require a coordinated and effective process of data handling and storage. The on-going change of the atmospheric concentration of radiatively important trace species (e.g. carbon dioxide, chlo- rofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, methane, and tropospheric ozone) may have a significant influence on climate. There are, however, considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude and timing of such greenhouse -gas-induced climatic changes. Special attention must therefore be given to the preparation of more accurate analyses of past climatic changes and present trends, as well as research aimed at understanding the causes for these changes, including the development of improved knowledge about the sources and sinks, and the biogeochemical cycling of the major greenhouse gases. Climate Modeling and Prediction This component is designed to improve our basic under- standing of the climate system and our ability to predict pos- sible or likely changes in climate. Over the next five years, national projects (coordinated with international efforts where possible) which advance the understanding of climate predic- tability on all time scales will be emphasized. Recently, it has become evident that, under certain condi- tions, probabilistic climate forecasts on the order of weeks to months are possible. Qualitative interannual forecasts may also be possible for periods in which El Nino events occur. Research related to climate prediction is organized in the same way as the International World Climate Research Programme, i.e., into three different categories (Streams 1, 2, and 3), each one corresponding to a specific time scale and research objective. MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM Based on this strategy, the National Climate Program (NCP) Plan has been structured to contain three main com- ponents: • Establishing the physical basis for prediction over periods of one month to a season (Stream 1). • Evaluation of the predjctable aspects of global climate variations over periods up to several years (Stream 2). • Characterization of climate variations and change over periods of decades and longer (Stream 3). The same physical processes are often involved in climate prediction on all these time scales. Improvement in predic- tion on one time scale therefore can contribute to improve- ments on the others as well. This component will also include the preparation of inter- nally consistent representations of climatic change caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases, presented in sufficient detail to be useful for climatic change impact studies. The Impact of Climatic Change on the Environment Numerous assessments of the possible impacts on the en- vironment caused by a greenhouse-gas-induced climate warming have been carried out during the past decade, both nationally and internationally, considerable knowledge hav- ing heen gained. Nevertheless, there are still many uncer- tainties, particularly with regard to how, and to what degree, this change in the composition of the atmosphere will modify the climate, globally and regionally, and how this in turn will affect natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. Over the next few years, a well-coordinated research and assessment program is needed to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of a national response to a greenhouse gas-induced climatic change. Major priorities include: • Assessment of the consequences of a climatic change on natural and managed ecosystems, including, e.g., agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy demand and supply, as well as the consequences of a rise in the sea level. • Development of methodologies for comprehensive in- tegrated assessments of the impact of a climatic change in selected vulnerable regions, taking into account bio- logical, economic, and social circumstances. • Development of strategies and policy options for limit- ing the levels of the emissions of greenhouse gases, and methods for adjustment of human activities to climatic change. Over the next two years an international assessment of cli- mate and its impact on society will be organized by WMO and UNEP through the newly created Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The U.S. will be a major contributor to the work of this Panel, and will chair the work- ing group on response strategies. PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION Implementation of the National Climate Program is a cooperative endeavor among federal and state agencies, regional and private institutions, academia, and the private sector, and is coordinated by the National Climate Program Office (NCPO) with scientific guidance from the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and programmatic review by the Climate Program Policy Board. This Board established by legislation, is the forum for federal agencies to discuss and formulate commitments to the national and international climate programs. Additional coordination with other earth and geophysical science programs is provided through the Committee on Earth Sciences (CES). Current broad agency responsibilities within the NCP are defined below: DOE: Lead agency for study of carbon dioxide and cli- mate . DOS: Coordination and policy setting for U.S. partici- pation in international programs. EPA: Assessing impacts of climate change on environ- mental quality (see Appendix B). NASA: Responsible for developing remote sensing tech- niques to study Earth as an integrated system. Lead agency for coordination of ozone program. NOAA: Lead agency for coordination of the National Cli- mate Program. Responsible for monitoring, ar- chiving, and disseminating atmospheric and oceanic data. Lead agency for climate prediction. NSF: Support of basic research in all aspects of the NCP. Lead agency for the U.S. Antarctic Pro- gram and for coordinating activities related to the Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984. USDA Evaluation of the role of climatic change and variability on agricultural (food and fiber) sys- tems. USGS: Lead agency for study of interaction between cli- mate and hydrology, and a major participant in studies of paleoclimate, including the reconstruc- tion of Pliocene climates. It is not feasible to identify or highlight every type of cli- mate activity in this Plan. The nation should maintain a cer- tain level of basic climate research in areas not mentioned specifically in this Plan, such as solar-terrestrial studies and planetary science, from which new insights may be gained and unexpected climatic events might be interpreted. Not all federal agencies involved with the National Cli- mate Program are actively managing parts of the program. Some agencies, such as HHS, HUD, Justice, DOT, and Treasury, primarily depend on the results and progress of the national program. Over the next five years, it is impor- tant that federal agencies play an active role in ensuring that the implementation of the program is to their benefit, i.e., that the lead and participating agencies for each program component are producing results that are useful to all. The National Academy of Sciences provides scientific guidance to the federal agencies participating in the program, primarily through the activities of the Board on Atmospheric- Sciences and Climate (BASC), the Ocean Studies Board (OSB), and other related activities of the National Research Council (NRC). As the U.S. representative to the Interna- tional Council of Scientific Unions, (ICSU), the Academy also serves as a nongovernmental interface with the interna- tional scientific community. For example, the Climate Research Committee of BASC acts as the U.S. National Committee for the WMO/ICSU World Climate Research Programme; the NAS's Ocean Studies Board serves as the U.S. National Committee for the ICSU's Scientific Com- mittee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) which, together with the IOC, sponsors the Committee on Climatic Changes and the Ocean (CCCO). NCPO is the lead entity responsible for administering the Program. It has the authority for coordinating the develop- ment of a research agenda for the federal government in the area of climate research and assessment pursuant to the Na- tional Climate Program Act. Management functions of the NCPO include planning, coordination, program evaluation, and reporting, through the Secretary of Commerce, to the Executive Branch and U.S. Congress. Additional Program responsibilities specifically mandated by the Act cover intergovernmental climate ac- tivities, development of experimental forecast centers, and coordination of international aspects of the National Climate Program. EXPECTED ACCOMPLISHMENTS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS Many of the scientific problems connected with research aimed at understanding the processes governing the climate system are exceedingly complex and it is apparent that they cannot be expected to be solved within such a short time period as five years. This is also true with regard to the anal- ysis of the consequences of a climatic change on natural and managed ecosystems and its links with other environmental problems. However, what can be accomplished over the next five years is the organization of a dedicated effort to develop a long-term monitoring system to provide the data necessary for climate research and applications. It is also imperative to begin developing preliminary assessments of the impacts of a climatic change on society to ensure that as little time as possible is lost if steps are necessary to minimize the causes of the climatic change and/or development of adjustment strategies. The following accomplishments are anticipated over the next five years (not given in order of priority): Climate Data and Services: • Improved dissemination of data required for climate research, and for improving private sector access to cli- mate information. • Improvement of global-based observing systems, tak- ing advantage of new technologies for observing and communicating meteorological and oceanographic data, including satellites and other remote sensing capabilities. • Completion of the planning of a comprehensive monitor- ing and delivery system for the assessment of the state of the Earth's climate. Climate Modeling and Prediction: • Development of more realistic schemes for representa- tion of physical processes and feedback mechanisms in climate models. • Implementation of U.S. commitments to the World Cli- mate Programme, specifically Climate Computer Sys- tem (CLICOM), International Satellite Cloud Climatol- ogy Project (ISCCP), International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA), and the Trace Gas Program, as well as the Montreal Protocol on the regulation of the emission of substances that deplete the ozone layer. • Completion of planning for and beginning of the im- plementation of a U.S. program for the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). • Development and evaluation of more realistic climate models and historic case studies to evaluate possible fu- ture climatic change. • Development of an arctic climate studies program as part of the U.S. Arctic Research Plan. • Improved models for forecasting emissions and the at- mospheric concentration of radiatively important trace substances. Impacts of Climatic Change on the Environment: • Improved knowledge of the consequences of a climatic change on natural and human ecosystems. • Initiation of a national program to address climatic aspects of water resource issues. • Analysis of policy options to affect the future levels of emissions of radiatively important trace substances, and of options to adjust to climatic changes. MAJOR REPORTS The Global Climate Protection Act of 1987 (P.L. 100-204) directs the Secretary of State and the Administrator of EPA to report to Congress summarizing the international scien- tific understanding of the greenhouse effect and its possible environmental impacts, and to outline a strategy by which the U.S. intends to seek further international cooperation to limit global climatic change. The preparation of this report will be coordinated by the Department of State and EPA with other involved agencies through the Committee on Earth Sciences, and the NCP Policy Board. THE NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM AND INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES The needs of the National Climate Program cannot be met by observational and research efforts restrained by national boundaries, nor can our needs for global data be satisfied solely by observations taken by satellites, ships, planes, and ground stations under direct U.S. control. We depend heav- ily on the free international flow of meteorological data, not only for weather forecasting, but also for the development of climate products. The World Climate Programme The World Climate Programme (WCP) was formed in 1979 to coordinate international, climate-related activities. The WCP is administered by the World Meteorological Or- ganization, with active participation by the United Nations Environment Program, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and the International Council of Scientific Un- ions, specifically the Scientific Committee on Ocean Resesrch, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environ- ment. The World Climate Programme is divided into four com- ponents: World Climate Data Programme (WCDP), World Climate Applications Programme (WCAP), World Climate Research Programme, (WCAP), and World Climate Impact Studies Programme (WCIP). To a large extent, the World Climate Programme is thus structured in a similar way as the National Climate Program (except that the data and ap- plications activities are combined into one component in the NCP), which has proven to be to the advantage of both pro- grams; it facilitates coordination and it provides better op- portunities for sharing resources. The U.S. participates in many international observational projects being organized within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), e.g., the Tropical Ocean Global At- mosphere Project, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, and the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project, and the development of a climate computer system to assist nations in better organizing and using climate data and in- formation. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme In 1986 the International Council of Scientific Unions en- dorsed a new international program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): A Study of Global Change, with the objective of describing and understanding the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system. Given such an encompassing focus, reaching from the in- terior of the Earth to the center of the Sun, it shares the in- terests of other more well-defined international programs such as the World Climate Research Programme. However, in order to avoid unnecessary duplication of efforts, the IGBP will put less emphasis on studies that are already being ad- dressed in existing programs. Consequently, excellent opportunities exist to proceed with the implementation of the WCRP and planning the activities of the IGBP in such a way that the two international pro- grams effectively complement each other. In fact, given the substantial achievements already accomplished by the WCRP, not least with regard to observational programs relat- ing to the individual components of the climate system, the WCRP can serve as a building block for the further develop- ment of the IGBP. The U.S. Global Change Program Preliminary planning for the U.S. contribution to the In- ternational Geosphere-Biosphere Program -- A Study of Global Change has already taken place within the National Academy of Sciences, which has appointed a Committee on Global Change, that will also serve as the U.S. National Committee for the IGBP. Several Federal agencies have responded to this interna- tional initiative and are formulating research and observa- tional programs within the framework of the general con- cept of global change. The National Science Foundation, for example, has estab- lished a Global Geosciences Program; NASA's Science Ad- visory Council has developed a program for an ambitious study of global change, named Earth System Science; NOAA has prepared a program called Climate and Global Change. All of these programs rely heavily on active climate research and data collection activities. Other agencies, like DOE, EPA and USGS, are also formulating programs to contribute to the IGBP. To coordinate the U.S. activities related to the international "global change" program, the President's Science Advisor has established a Committee on Earth Sciences under the Fed- eral Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering and Technology (FCCSET), which, among other responsibili- ties, is charged with the task of coordinating agency research programs in earth sciences, including national and interna- tional programs. Research on Ozone Depletion The Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer (CCOL) was formed by UNEP in 1977, and consists of international, governmental, and nongovernmental representatives. In the U.S., NASA provides the leadership in coordinating national and international efforts, working closely with EPA, NOAA. NSF and other agencies. An international assessment of ozone changes, including its impacts on climate, has been published (WMO, 1986). International agreements have been adopted under UNEP auspices providing for research and for reductions in emissions of ozone-depleting substances. Many agencies involved in the ozone research program, particularly in monitoring atmospheric chemistry and model- ing, are also involved in the NCP. Coordination in conjunc- tion with the Interagency Committee for Stratospheric Ozone Protection (ICSOP) of future ozone and climate research pro- grams has been initiated. BUDGET The President's FY 1989 budget requests approximately 230 million dollars for aqency programs in support of the NCP goals. Specific breakdown of this funding by agency is given in the budget section of this report. Traditionally, funding for the NCP has been divided into three basic categories: monitoring and data management, cli- mate modeling and prediction, and climate change impacts. Costs for monitoring and data management systems are in part incomplete because each satellite system or data management center may serve many climate and geophysi- cal functions. Thus, major costs for satellite systems are not included in these totals. "The (National Climate Program) Act ... was meant to be an experimental prototype for the organization of research that crosses agency and interdisciplinary boundaries. The Conference Report to the 1978 Act stated that the entire point of making climate the focus of a national program is to em- phasize that it is a subject which cannot be confined in ordi- nary organizational boundaries, and that it must be consi- dered as a critical element of strategic planning in almost all areas of human endeavor. Judging by the progress which has been made in the last seven years, I would say that the intent of the 1978 Act has been carried out." George E. Brown, Jr. Member of Congress (1986) The climate system includes the following components (WCRP, 1984): Tlie atmosphere, which is the most rapidly variable part of the system. The troposphere has a characteristic response or thermal adjustment time on the order of one week, while the stratosphere and higher layers of the atmosphere have quite different processes and time scales. Tlxe ocean, which interacts with the overlying at- mosphere or ice on time scales of months to years, while the deeper ocean has a thermal adjustment time on the order of decades to centuries. 77?^ cryosphere, which comprises the continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, surface snow cover, and permafrost zones. The changes of snow cover and the extent of sea ice show large seasonal variations while the glaciers and ice sheets respond much more slowly. Tlie land surface , which comprises the land masses of the continents, including the lakes, rivers, and ground- water, which are important components of the hydro- logical cycle. These are variable components of the climate system at all time scales. — Ti\e biosphere, which is the collective term for all liv- ing and dead organic matter in our environment. The fraction of the biosphere which is most significant for shaping climate on seasonal to decadal time scales is the terrestrial vegetation, while phytoplankton in the upper ocean is a deciding factor on longer time scales. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Atmosphere Biosphere Cryosphere ■WWfWIW 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background It is to the credit of the architects of the National Climate Program Act that in 1989, eleven years after its passage, it is still not only timely, but also gaining increasing impor- tance. The world meteorological and oceanographic community is implementing the World Climate Programme (WCP). Na- tional and international attention is gradually turning to is- sues of actual and potential socioeconomic consequences in- duced by the vagaries of climate and concerns about the possible modification of climate by human activities. Extreme weather and climate events in recent years, and their socio-economic consequences, have forcibly reminded us that atmospheric variability is not just an interesting dy- namic feature of our environment. Figure 1 shows the global extent of extreme climate conditions, including a pronounced El Nino event, during 1982-1983. While many technical ad- vances have served to insulate us from the normal variabil- ity of nature, the impacts of extreme conditions remain. The more interconnected the world becomes, especially through trade and foreign aid (see Figure 2), and the more capital investments that are made in natural resource utilization, the larger the penalties are for neglect, mismanagement, and mis- judgment of the environment; and conversely, the greater the rewards are for careful analysis and planning. The pervasiveness of drought conditions in Africa, two major El Nino, Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (1976 and 1982-83), the volatility of international market condi- tions during food surpluses and deficits, the rise in the water levels of the Great Salt Lake and the Great Lakes (Figure 3), worldwide depletion of stratospheric ozone, and the recognition that man's activities may contribute to climatic changes, have all recently been topics of public concern. They underscore the importance of further efforts to under- stand the causes and anticipate the occurrence of major cli- mate fluctuations and long-term changes. Thi oiittrn part ot the Unlt.J Stetea was favorably affectij by it* warmest winter In 25 yosri. According to an oitl.tci by NCAA, energy savings vsro on the ordor or 5500 Billion, Indonosla vai plagued with eovoro dcought, resulting In reduced agricultural output, especially rice, and In famine, malnutrition, disease, and hundreds of doaths. u'N - go oipansoa in Africa havo boon ected by drought. Tor example, tho Heat African Sahol has, onco again, boon plagued by na)or drought. Australia had Its worst drought this contury. Agricultural and llvostock losses, along with widespread brush- fires mainly In the southwestern part of the country. Damage to infrastructure and agriculture In Peru and Ecuador as a result of hoavy flooding and sovere droughts In southern Poru and Oollvla. A major drought continued in Northoast Draill. Southern Africa lias wltneasod io»o ol Its worst droughts this contury. This was not tho caso during tho 1972-73 ovont . Figure 1. Worldwide climate impacts during 1982-1983 (from Glantz, 1986). 4200 $M 160r 140 120 100 80 60 40 -0 ! m 1 I I I _T^ jzza_ m 1 i I 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Figure 2. U.S. AID assistance to African nations for drought relief from FY73 to FY85 in millions of dollars. : Record high 4211.85 feet June 3-8, 1$ : \ : )86 \ ■ ■ ■ i i • i Record low 4' October —Nov ■ ■ ■ ■ 91.35 feet ember 1963 i i ■ • ' Feb. July Jan. July Jan. July Jan. July Jan. July Jan. July Jan. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Figure 3. Fluctuations in the water level of the Great Salt Lake, February 1981 to April 1987 (USGS and Department of Environment, Canada, 1987). 1.2 Accomplishments and Perspectives Since the National Climate Program began, progress has been made in a number of important areas: • Major advances in observing the ocean and modeling its circulation are beginning to occur. New space-based instruments for ocean observations, the availability of advanced computational resources, and the realization of the importance of the oceans as a natural resource and their crucial role in understanding and predicting global climate are coming together so that, in the near future, major insights into three-dimensional ocean cir- culation will be possible. Figure 4 shows an example of the close agreement which can be obtained between satellite-observed sea level data and those observed in situ. 90 r An in-depth assessment by the DOE of what is known about the physical, geochemical, and ecological ramifi- cations of atmospheric C0 2 changes has been completed. The growth in concentrations of C0 2 since the 1700's is presented in Figure 5. Advances in understanding the role of a number of trace gas constituents has led to concern about their potential impact on the basic chemistry of the atmosphere as well as their combined contribution to global climate change. Efforts are continuing to identify their global sources and sinks, and to understand their interactions and ef- fects (see Figure 6 and Table 1). Improvements have occurred in understanding climate processes through paleoclimate studies which combine climate models and paleorecords to reconstruct past cli- mates. One example, for 9000 years before present, is presented in Figure 7. 300 1985 DAY Figure 4. Comparison of GEOSAT altimeter-derived heights of the sea level (the smooth curve) at Christmas Island in the equatorial Pacific with in situ tide gauge measurements during a 14-month period (April 1985-June 1986 (Cheney et al. 1986). 270- 2000 Figure 5. Variations in the atmospheric concentrations (in ppmv) of carbon dioxide with time. The thin line represents the concentration measured in glacier ice during the last 200 years (Source Neftel et al., 1985). The thick line gives the concentration measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. Refrigerators, Heat Pumps. Plastic foams etc. Rice Paddies, Ruminants, Biomass burn. etc Natural Soils. Fertilizers, Ocean-Lakes. etc Deforestation, Changing land use CFC'S _ H Fossil fuel combustion SO. + " Stratospheric Ozone Concentration Climatic Change Increased Photosynthesis Skin cancer. Eye disease, etc. Impacts on: Agriculture, Forestry, Water Supply, Sea level rise, etc. Acid Rain Impacts on: Agriculture, Forestry, etc. Impacts on: Forestry, Agriculture, Lakes, etc. Figure 6. A simplified diagram indicating the consequences of the changing (natural or man-made) composition of the atmosphere. The plus and minus signs indicate whether an increase of the atmospheric concentration of a trace gas intensifies or reduces the various types of impacts. I 180 LONGITUDE -180 -120 LONGITUDE Figure 7. Simulated land surface temperature differences in degrees Celsius (9000 years BP minus present) for July (upper figure) and January (lower figure). The computations were carried out with North American ice sheet (hatched) and present ocean temperatures (Kutzbach and Guetter, 1984). 10 • Significant improvements are occurring in the climate service system (collecting, archiving, and disseminat- ing climate information). National, regional, and local efforts are being made to address the needs of the farmer, the business person, and the politician for ac- curate and timely climate information, and internation- ally, to help less developed countries use and expand their observing networks. As an example, Figure 8 shows a data system which is automated and operating in Nebraska and surrounding states to provide recent weather and climate information required for agricultural activities. • New methodologies for climate impact assessment have been developed both nationally and internationally. • First steps have been taken toward gathering interna- tional commitments for implementing the World Climate Research Programme (NCPO Annual Report, 1986). 1.3 Structure of the National Climate Program Based on the strategy outlined in the Overview, the Na- tional Climate Program has been structured to contain three main components (see Figure 9). The first and most crucial component is comprehensive and well-organized monitoring of the climate system. This reguires a well-coordinated in- ternational program aimed at improving many components of the meteorological and climatological data information sys- tem, as well as archiving the data permitting easy access to the information for different purposes. The second component of the NCP aims to improve un- derstanding of the many physical processes which govern the climate, and to develop climate models for (a) predic- tion of weather anomalies for periods up to a season, (b) prediction of large-scale variations of the global climate for periods up to several years, and (c) characterization of vari- TABLE 1. Changes in Surface Temperatures for Different Levels of Atmospheric Trace Gases, Using Climate Models (Wang et al., 1986). Change in Surface Chemical Sensitivity Study Temperature ( °C) CO, 330 - 600 ppm + 1 5 to + 4.5 CH 4 1.7 — 3.4 ppm + .2 to +0.4 CFC1 3 Constant emissions + 0.5 CF 2 C1 2 at 1977 rates: - 1 .0 ppb. CFCI.,: - 2.7 ppb, CF 2 C1 2 Constant emissions + 1.0 at double 1986 rates; 0-1.8 ppb, CFCI,; - 5.0 ppb, CF 2 C1 2 ; - 1.5 ppb, CH,CCI 3 N 2 0.3 - 0.6 ppm + 0.3 to +0.4 <> 2 xTropospheric distribution 0.9 H,0 Stratosphere 3 — 6 ppm 0.6 Weather Station NWS/AFOS ATPUTOCG Government Researchers CAMaC Computer 1) Data Archive on 1.2 kO Diskette 2) Data Reouests on S VI/-4* Diskette 3) Daily Check-up *) Quality Control 5) Research /Development T AGNET Computer 1) Laroer Data Requests 2) Archive Dally Data Individuals Extension Service Consultants Nev/s Media Figure 8. 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In addition, this component includes the development of strategies for adjust- ing to a changing climate as well as the feasibility of reduc- ing a further build up of atmospheric concentrations of radi- atively important gases. 1 . 4 International Scientific Programs Related to the National Climate Program Coordination of U.S. involvement with international cli- mate activities continues to be centered around the World Climate Programme organized and led by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In addition, the United States is actively engaged in bilateral climate programs, par- ticularly with Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Spain and the Soviet Union. Excellent opportunities also exist for mutually beneficial cooperation with the newly established International Ge- osphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP). 1.4.1 The World Climate Programme The World Climate Programme (WCP) is administered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the fol- lowing purposes: (i) To aid countries in the application of climatic knowledge to benefit the planning and management of many aspects of man's activities, (ii) To foresee and warn of possible future variations and changes in climate, either natural or man-made, which may significantly affect the economic and social ac- tivities of mankind. The WCP is composed of four components — data, appli- cations, impact studies, and research. The WMO is respon- sible for the overall coordination of the WCP and for the data and applications components. The United Nations En- vironment Programme has accepted the responsibility to im- plement the impact studies component. The research com- ponent is being jointly implemented by ICSU and WMO. 1.4.2 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change In 1986 the General Assembly of the International Coun- cil of Scientific Unions (ICSU) endorsed the establishment of a research program named the International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme (IGBP): A Study of Global Change. It will be directed at providing the information we need to assess the future of the Earth in the next 100 years. The objective of the program is to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human actions. The program is being planned in two phases: (i) A preparatory phase which will be characterized by the conduct of pilot experiments and the development of implementation plans for the main operational phase of the program. (ii) The operational phase of the IGBP will begin in the early 1990's and last at least a decade. It will mark the era of coordinated study. Continuous global monitoring from both in situ and spaceborne stations can be expected during the latter part of the decade and continue into the next century. The program will emphasize interactive processes that are not addressed by other existing programs. Topics selected for early emphasis in the IGBP include: (1) terrestrial biosphere-atmospheric chemistry interactions, (2) marine biosphere-atmospheric interactions, (3) biospheric aspects of the hydrological cycle, and (4) effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. Emphasis is also put on the need to develop an adequate global data and information system, which must be an integral part of the program. Following the establishment of this international program, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) organized a Com- mittee on Global Change that will also serve as the U.S. Na- tional Committee for the IGBP. Several Federal agencies have also formulated research and observational programs related to the IGBP, e.g.: • NSF has established a cooperative, multidisciplinary research program: the Global Geosciences Program. • NASA's Science Advisory Council has presented a proposal for a national program to study "global change": the Earth System Science. • NOAA has developed a proposal for a national program primarily focused on data collection and management, and climate prediction: Climate and Global Change. Other agencies, such as DOE, EPA, and USGS are also formulating programs to contribute to the IGBP. (For fur- ther details regarding the above-mentioned national pro- grams, and other climate-related programs. See Appendix C). The existing National Climate Program is a key compo- nent of these broader programs of global change. 1 . 5 Management of the National Climate Program The National Climate Program Act (see Appendix A) re- quires a cooperative effort between agencies of the U.S. 13 government having missions relevant to climate and climate impact response. It mannates the establishment of a National Climate Program Office (NCPO), to "serve as the lead en- tity responsible for administering the program". The primary responsibility of the NCPO is to ensure balance and com- pleteness in the combined efforts of participating agencies to meet the primary goal of assisting "the Nation and the world to understand and respond to natural and man-induced climate processes and their implications." The activities of the NCP are overseen by an NCP Policy Board which has the overall responsibility for "coordinated planning and Progress review of the Program". The Board "shall estab- lish and maintain such interanency groups as the Board de- termines to be necessary to carry out its activities". The National Climate Program Act specifies several ele- ments that the Program shall include, two of which are car- ried out under the direction of the National Climate Program Office. These are (1) mechanisms for intergovernmental climate-related studies and services, carried out through fed- eral and state cooperation, and (2) augmentation of climate research activities by the establishment of experimental cli- mate forecast centers. The NCPO has the responsibility to "protect against the premature reliance on such experimen- tal forecasts." In administering the program, the NCPO has the follow- ing tasks: • Preparation and submission to the Congress, through the Secretary of Commerce, of a five-year plan at least once every four years. Each plan shall establish the goals and priorities for the Program, and contain details about the role of the federal agencies in the programs. • Preparation and annual submission to the President and the Congress, through the Secretary of Commerce, of an annual report showing the program activities and progress, the objectives for the forthcoming year, as well as a summary of the multiagency budget request for the Program. In addition to its roles of coordinating and managing of intergovernmental climate-related studies and services and experimental climate forecast center activities, the NCPO is responsible, with the Department of State, for "coordinat- ing interagency participation in international climate related activities" (relations with non-governmental international scientific organizations are handled through the National Academy of Sciences). The NCPO also facilitates informa- tion exchange through workshops and seminars between groups or agencies concerned with policy and planning for climate-sensitive activities. Toward this end, the NCPO began in 1985 a series of Strategic Planning Seminars (SPS) designed to identify emerging policy and technical issues. The first three seminars focused on drought in Africa (1985), policy aspects of climate forecasting (Krasnow, 1986), and economic and political aspects of climate change (WRI, 1988). External scientific review of the NCP is provided by the Board on Atmospheric Science and climate of the National Research Council (NRC), and its standing Climate Research Committee in cooperation with other earth sciences activi- ties of the NRC. 14 2. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM This section describes the major objectives of the National Climate Program for the next five-year period, and activi- ties required for the implementation of these objectives. 2.1 Climate Data, Analysis, and Services The National Climate Program Act (Appendix A) states that the Program should include, but not be limited to, the following elements: • Global data collection, and monitoring and analysis ac- tivities to provide reliable, useful, and readily availa- ble information on a continuing basis (Sec. 5.d 4); • Systems for the management and active dissemination of climatological data, information, and assessments, including mechanisms for consultation with current and potential users (Sec. 5.d 5); The major objectives of this component of the National Climate Program for the next five-year period are: • To create an intergrated climate information system per- mitting an easy access to the data specifying the climate system and the factors having an influence on climate. • To provide climate data products and services aimed at a wide-spread utilization of climate information. • To reconstruct past climates and to detect any changes in the current state of the climate system. The individual pieces of the data and services section of the Five- Year Plan lay the foundation for improvements. These plans are compatible with general goals of agency- directed programs in the Global Change Program. For ex- ample, the broad goal of the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program is to improve climate prediction capabili- ties and to fulfill NOAA's responsibilities in a broad national and international program to understand and predict changes of the global environment. Budget increases in FY 89 have been requested by the President for this effort. Similarly, the global change related programs of NASA and NSF will contribute to building the observational base necessary to un- derstand climatic change. NSF, through university-based research, will continue their traditional function of examin- ing the physical, chemical, and biological processes which govern climate and determine which climate parameters should be monitored. NASA will continue development of an atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone monitor- ing system as part of their implementation of national and international programs. Collecting, archiving, and disseminating primary at- mospheric and oceanic observations is an important public responsibility and largely rests with the federal government. Climate Data, Analysis, and Services Climate System Atmosphere, Ocean, Cryosphere, Land Surface, Biosphere External Factors Influencing Climate Solar Radiation, Emission of Trace Gases, Land Management, etc. Data Communication and Management Climate Products and Services Clinate prediction and climatic change inpact studies 15 With the expected explosion in volume of primary data in the next few years, mainly from satellites and automated weather observing systems, critical decisions will be needed in the next five years as to how climate data should be saved and in what form. Long-term monitoring and data access are key ingredients of future programs of global change. What is done now con- cerning climate monitoring and data management will likely determine how successful global change programs will be in the year 2000. The observing system presently used for most climate pur- poses is primarily based on the existing weather service ob- serving system. The end users of climate data are thus de- pendent on a complex network of collecting and archiving of weather data from both remote and ground-based sensors. The operational system for weather data is supplemented by an ad hoc system of federal, state, university, and private observing networks which may or may not interact with it. The combination of these networks, properly interfaced, pro- vides an essential part to a national climate service system. As a general rule, most users of climate information ex- pect some processing of the data during the initial data han- dling phase. The most elementary level of climate services is to provide access to aggregated data for specific locations or regions, e.g., monthly mean temperatures, sunshine hours, or seasonal rainfall. However, support for even this type of service requires a complex data management system (acqui- sition, quality control, processing, archiving, and dissemi- nation). oceanographic, and other environmental parameters have been designed and used to produce real-time or near-real- time data for specific purposes, such as weather forecast- ing, ship routing, early warning systems, etc. These data have been used extensively to produce climate information. NASA has historically played a central role in developing new in- strumentation for environmental observations and has worked cooperatively with NOAA to define instrument needs for operational satellites. The long lead time needed to produce new satellites or new instrumentation for existing satellites requires early consider- ation of future data needs. National needs for environmen- tal data in the future will almost certainly be for global data on a recurring basis from stable, calibrated instruments. The considerations must become an integral part of the present planning of the complex satellite instrument systems, such as the Earth Observing System (EOS) being proposed as part of the Space Station configuration. Recommendations: • Improve the monitoring of the concentration of radia- tively active trace species in the atmosphere and in the oceans. • Develop improved instrumentation for sea level meas- urements, by making use of e.g., the next generation water level measurement systems, portable Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) systems and Global Positioning System (GPS) units, and ancillary environ- mental sensors. 2.1.1 Monitoring the Climate System (i) Specification of Climate Data Requirements Determination of global changes in the environment is highly dependent on regular, complete assessments of the present state of the Earth's climate. Key questions that must be answered include: What are reliable indicators of climatic change? What are their ranges of natural variation? How can possible causes and effects be differentiated? What are the time and space scales of importance? At the present, how to monitor the global climate is still largely a research ques- tion. The goal over the next five years is to address these questions and establish a routine monitoring activity. Recommendation: Enhance research to examine the physical, chemical, and biological processes which govern climate, and to determine which climate parameters should be monitored for identify- ing a global climatic change. (ii) Climate Observing Systems To a large extent, instruments to measure atmospheric. (iii) Climate Data Management Data management systems and institutions that currently handle climate data include: international environmental data collection systems organized through UN agencies (WMO, IOC, UNEP, UNDP), such as the World Weather Watch (WWW), Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS), Global Resource Information Database (GRID), Integrated Global Ocean Station System (IGOSS), and In- ternational Ocean Data Exchange (IODE); individual national and international data management schemes specifically for research projects, such as International Satellite Cloud Clima- tology Project/First ISCCP Regional Experiment, Interna- tional Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project/First ISLSCP Field Experiment, and Equatorial Pacific Ocean Cli- mate Studies/Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere; the NASA Pilot Climate Data System; the NSF-UCAR Unidata system, designed for service to the university community; and the National Data Centers which archive climate data and which are available for research and application pur- poses. A vast amount of satellite and ground-based data are in the national archives. In order to ensure that these data, as well as the data being collected today will be available in the future, dedicated efforts must be made; e.g., there is a 16 need to identify what archived data are usable, what infor- mation should continue to be saved, and how. Furthermore, it will be necessary to improve the entire process of data han- dling and storage. Stability and continuity of data sets are two critical require- ments for climate purposes. Changes in instrumentation or operational procedures must be made in ways to ensure, as far as possible, the compatibility of data sets. This is espe- cially true with regard to satellite data. Care must be exer- cised in setting up and operating data networks to provide reasonable longevity and homogeniety of the data. At the same time, methods must be incorporated into ini- tial data processing activities which will extract as much primary and secondary (i.e., integrated) climate data as prac- tical before the data are archived. This is particularly criti- cal in cases where the data volume is large, making reprocessing prohibitive, or in cases where the initial data are never saved. Satellite data will be more extensively used to provide long- term data records for climatic studies. An informative and available history of the performance and stability of each satellite instrument must be developed. At least two other national data management systems based on direct telecommunications between the user and the data archives exist: the NASA Pilot Climate Data System and the NSF-UCAR Unidata System. Coordination of all data management systems, including those created for national and international research activities, is needed to improve national access to climate data. Recommendations: Weekly crop condition assessments are provided on a global basis and monthly crop yields are also done by the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) of USDA and NOAA for use by USDA economic agencies in preparation of the world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE). These assessments are then used by both govern- ment and the private sector. NOAA also prepares monthly and seasonal (90-day) cli- mate outlooks and collects and analyzes data to depict cur- rent climate anomalies (Figure 10). The federal government's role in collecting, archiving, and disseminating climate data is inevitable in light of the increas- ing reliance on satellite systems as primary data sources, and the interdependence of national and foreign data sources. It is also true that regional interests (between states) create different needs for climate information and analyses. Pri- vate meteorological services will be encouraged to develop products to meet the growing public need for climate infor- mation. This will require, though, that data sources be eas- ily available. In many cases, the general public and special users are not aware of what climate data, information, assessments, and predictions are available. A key service to the nation is to ensure that those who have use for climate products are made aware of what is being produced. Greater use of the climate products tends, at the same time, to improve them. Making potential users aware of available climate in- formation is also needed within the federal government. This is especially true in many planning activities where climate issues are important, but often are not considered. • In close collaboration with the World Climate Data Programme, improve access to data representing the in- dividual components of the climate system and the fac- tors having an influence on climate. • Develop improved methods for extracting information on climate parameters from operational satellite sensors, and programs for calibrating and validation in order to ensure consistency in long-term research data sets. • Recompute the analyses of the data obtained during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) 1978-79. 2.1.2 Climate Data and Products and Services Climate products, such as the material contained in the Weekly Climate Bulletin (NOAA), the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (NOAA), the Oceanographic Monthly Summary (NOAA), and the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (NOAA/USDA) provide climate information for government and industry users. These products are derived from the ex- tensive data information systems and research that form the foundation of the National Climate Program. Recommendation: • Encourage the private sector to develop climate products, and to increase the level of awareness of the availability of climate information and products. 2.1.3 Climatic Change and Variability (i) Reconstruction of Past Climates and Analysis of their Causes Historical and paleoclimate data derived from ice cores, varved lakes, and deep sea sediments provide a significant source of information on past climatic changes. Analyses of these data provide essential information for validation of cli- mate models under radically different boundary conditions and provide a valuable reference against which to gauge fu- ture climate change and distinguish natural from man-made changes. Analyses of marine sediment cores have demonstrated the importance of the Earth's orbital cycles in determining cli- mate and climatic change. Continuing efforts are needed to understand the nature of the climate response to orbital forc- 17 00 20E <0E 60c 80E tQOE '20E MQE I6QE '80 ISOW MOW 1?OW IQQW 80W 6QW v 40 BMN&il Mr. Lee Thomas September 9, 1986 Page 3 Max Baucus Patrick J. Leahy' 41 ma APPENDIX E NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM POLICY BOARD MEMBERS Members Alternate Members Agency for International Development Dr. Nyle Brady Senior Assistant Administrator for Science and Technology Agency for International Development Washington, D.C. 20523 Department of Agriculture Dr. Ewen M. Wilson Assistant Secretary for Economics Office of the Secretary Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 Department of Commerce Dr. Joseph O. Fletcher Associate Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research 6010 Executive Blvd., Rm. 908 Rockville, Maryland 20852 Department of Defense Dr. George P. Millburn Acting Deputy Undersecretary for Research & Advanced Technology Department of Defense The Pentagon, Rm. 3E114 Washington, D.C. 20301 Dr. Charles K. Paul Remote Sensing Scientist Bureau of Science & Technology Agency for International Development Washington, D.C. 20523 Dr. Norton Strommen Chief Meteorologist World Agriculture Outlook Board Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 Dr. William A. Sprigg Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA, R/CAR 6010 Executive Blvd., Rm. 817 Rockville, Maryland 20852 Col. Ted S. Cress Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition The Pentagon, Room 3D 129 Washington, D.C. 20301 Department of Energy Dr. Edward R. Williams Director, Office of Environmental Analysis Department of Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20585 43 Members Alternate Member Department of Health and Human Services Dr. Lowell T. Harmison Science Advisor Office of the Assistant Secretary of Health Department of Health and Human Services 5600 Fishers Lane Rockville, Maryland 20857 Department of Housing and Urban Development Mr. Jack R. Stokvis General Deputy Assistant Secretary Community Planning and Development Housing and Urban Development Washington, D.C. 20410 Department of the Interior Dr. Richard Z. Poore Branch of Paleontology and Stratigraphy U.S. Geological Survey Department of the Interior 982 National Center Reston, Virginia 22092 Dr. Marshall M. Moss Asst. Chief Hydrologist for Research & External Coordination U.S. Geological Survey 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive National Center, Mail Stop 436 Reston, Virginia 22092 Department of Justice Mr. James L. Byrnes Assistant Attorney General Land and Natural Resources Div. Department of Justice Washington, D.C. 20530 Department of State Mr. William A. Nitze Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Environment, Health and Natural Resources Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 Department of Transportation Mr. Nicholas Krull Office of Environment and Energy Federal Aviation Administration Washington, D.C. 20593 Ms. Suzanne S. Butcher Deputy Director Office of Environmental Protection (OES/ENV) Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 44 Member Alternate Member Department of Treasury Mr. Hazen Gale Senior Policy Advisor International Affairs Office Department of Treasury Washington, D.C. 20220 Environmental Protection Agency Mr. Richard Morgenstern Director, Office of Policy Analysis Environmental Protection Agency 401 M Street, SW Washington, D.C. 20460 Federal Emergency Management Agency Mr. Robert T. Jaske Policy Manager (Hydrogeology) Office of Natural and Technological Hazards Federal Emergency Management Agency 500 C Street, SW Washington, D.C. 20472 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dr. Shelby G. Tilford Director, Earth Sciences and Applications Division, EE Office of Space Science and Applications Washington, D.C. 20546 National Climate Program Office Dr. Alan D. Hecht, Executive Secretary Director, National Climate Program Office, NOAA 11400 Rockville Pike, Room 108 Rockville, Maryland 20852 National Science Foundation Mr. Dennis A. Tirpak Senior Technical Advisor Environmental Protection Agency 401 M Street, SW Washington, D.C. 20460 Dr. Arthur J. Zeizel Technical Advisor to the Office of Natural and Technological Hazards Federal Emergency Management Agency 500 C Street, SW Washington, D.C. 20472 Dr. John Theon Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics and Radiation Branch, EE National Aeronautics and Space Administration Washington, D.C. 20546 Dr. Eugene W. Bierly, Chairman Division Director Atmospheric Sciences National Science Foundation 1800 G Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20550 Dr. Jay Fein Director, Climate Dynamics Program Division of Atmospheric Sciences National Science Foundation 1800 G Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20550 45 APPENDIX F ACRONYMS AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science AGNET Agriculture Management Network ARPA Arctic Research and Policy Act AWDN Automated Weather Data Network BASC Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (NAS) CAC Climate Analysis Center (NOAA) CCCO Committee on Climate Change and the Ocean (IOC/SCOR) CCOL Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer (UNEP) CES Committee on Earth Sciences (FCCSET) CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CFC Chlorofluorocarbon CH 4 Methane CLICOM Climate Computer System (WCDP) C0 2 Carbon Dioxide DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program DOE Department of Energy DOS Department of State DOT Department of Transportation ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ENSO El Nino— Southern Oscillation EOS Earth Observing System EPA Environmental Protection Agency ERB Earth Radiation Budget Mission ERBE Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (NASA) ERS Earth Resources Satellite ESA European Space Agency ETAC Environmental Tactical Analysis Center (Air Force Air Weather Service) FCCSET Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology FGGE First GARP Global Experiment (WMO/ICSU) FY Fiscal Year GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program GEMS Global Environmental Monitoring System (UNEP) GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GISP Greenland Ice Sheet Drilling Program GMCC Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (NOAA) GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project (WCRP) GPS Global Positioning System GRID Global Resource Information Database GTCP Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program HHS Department of Health and Human Services HUD Department of Housing and Urban Development ICSOP Interagency Committee for Stratospheric Ozone Protection ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (ICSU) IGOSS Integrated Global Ocean Station System (IOC/WMO) 4^ IOC International Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO) IODE International Ocean Data Exchange IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISCCP International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (WCRP) ISLSCP International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project (WCRP) JAWF Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (USDA/NOAA) NAS National Academy of Sciences NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCDC National Climatic Data Center NCP National Climate Program NCPO National Climate Program Office N0 2 Nitrous Oxide NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC National Research Council (NAS) NSCAT NASA Scatterometer NSF National Science Foundation NWS National Weather Service 3 Ozone OAR Office of Atmospheric Research OMB Office of Management and Budget OSB Ocean Studies Board (NAS) OSTP Office of Science and Technology Policy PL Public Law R&D Research and Development SAGE Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment SAM Stratospheric Aerosol Monitor SCOR Scientific Committee for Ocean Research (ICSU) SMM Solar Maximum Mission SPS Strategic Planning Seminar (NCP) STORM National Storm Operational and Research Meteorology Program SSM/I Special Sensor for Microwave/Imaging TOGA Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (WCRP) TOPEX Ocean Surface Topographic Experiment (NASA) UARS Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environmental Program US United States USDA US Department of Agriculture USGS US Geological Survey (DOI) USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics VLBI Very Long Baseline Interferometry WASDE World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates WCAP World Climate Applications Programme (WMO) WCDP World Climate Data Programme (WMO) WCIP World Climate Impact Studies Programme (UNEP) WCP World Climate Program (WMO) WCRP World Climate Research Program (WMO/ICSU) WMO World Meteorological Organization WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WCRP) WRI World Resources Institute WWW World Weather Watch (WMO) 4S A U. S. Government Printing Office: 1989 - 242-312 (04026) KSJ f ^ OF eo, Sr 4TES O* * A000D14 c lfiEl c m