| I 'TA245 . 7 873 0.1603 f"\ Inventory of Ponds in the Brazos and Colorado River (Texas) Drainages, from NASA Color Infrared Photography THE TEXAS AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION / Neville P. Clarke, Director / The Texas ASLM University System /College Station, Texas CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Special thanks to Mrs. Marylin Snell for maintain- V Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 ing the highest level of responsibility, initiative, and Materials and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 accuracy throughout the tedious work of this study. Results and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Funding was provided in part by the Texas ASM Statistical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 University Remote Sensing Center. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Literature Cited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 SUMMARY NASA color infrared photography was used to inventory the farm ponds of the Colorado and Brazos River basins in Texas. Ponds in ran- domly selected blocks within larger photographic frames were counted and placed in size classes. ln the 65 photographic frames examined of the Colorado River basin 12,367 ponds were identified, and 2,598 ponds were identified in the 7 frames examined of the Brazos River basin. Ponds were assigned to five size classes: class 1, < 1.25 ha; class 2, 1.25-2.5 ha; class 3, 2.5-5 ha; class 4, 5-11.25 ha; class 5, > 11.25 ha. Densities in ponds per kmz by size class for the Brazos and Colorado River basins respectively were: class 1 - 1.7, 0.97; class 2-0.1, 0.06; class 3-0.02, 0.01; class 4-0.003, 0.003; and class 5-0.002, 0.004. In the Colorado River basin 92.8 percent of the total ponds counted fell into size class 1 ( < 1.25 ha) and 5.6 percent of the total count fell into size class 2 (1 .25-2.50 ha). ln the Brazos River basin these two size groups constituted 93.3 and 5.5 percent of the total ponds counted respectively. Counts in all other size groups were 1 percent or less of the total. The Colorado River basin pond densities (number per unit area) tended to be low ( > 1.5 pond/ha) in the immediate vicinity of the Gulf Coast, and in the Texas High Plains, with a wide range of densities (1 .5-3.25 ponds/ha) in the region between the Coastal Plain and the High Plains. ln the Brazos River basin, densities tended to increase with distance from the coast. The counting blocks were from 2.1 to 2.3 kmz wide, and there was no significant change in pond density with distance from the river channel at this resolution. ln a 10 factor stepwise regression model, the factor which explained the most variation in pond count density was average slope, (here de- fined as the maximum elevation in the county minus the minimum elevation) followed by population density and rainfall, in order of im- portance. Using the simplifying assumption that all ponds have water- sheds which are hydrologically independent, we calculate that in 28 per- cent of the frames, over one half of land surface would have to be in pond watershed to maintain the pond surface area in the frame. The data also suggest that there may be significant differences in pond den- sity among soil associations ranging from 3.028 i 0.197 ponds/kmz in the Castell-Ponotoc-Lignon Soil Association to 0.172 .4; 0.123 v ponds/kmz in the Amarillo-Acuff-Mansker Soil Association. Llsing pond density data from this study it is estimated that the number of ponds 1.25 ha and smaller is 102,000 for the Colorado River basin, and 191,000 for the Brazos River basin. lf the mean density for the two watersheds is applied to the State of Texas, with the Rio Grandex/ River basin excluded, there were an estimated 782,000 ponds 1.25 ha and smaller, and an estimated 840,000 ponds of all sizes in the state, as of 1970. Inventory of Ponds in the Brazos and Colorado River (Texas) Drainages, From NASA Color Infrared Photography AUTHORS WILLIAM J. CLARK, Professor, The Texas Agricultural Experiment Sta- tion, (Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences), College Sta- tion, Texas TIMOTHY A. SPRINGER, Research assistant, The Texas Agricultural Ex- periment Station, (Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences), College Station, Texas INTRODUCTION Small ponds are abundant in central and eastern Texas. Most are fed by runoff, a few by pumped ground water. These ponds are usually under landowner control and are small enough to be managed for the objectives of the owner. The extent of the resource is poorly known. Acreage data for ponds larger than 2 acres but smaller than 4O acres have been published by the Soil Conservation Service for 1958 (457,901 acres) and 1967 (456,549 acres) (SCS 1970). Although the reported areas show a slight decrease from 1958 to 1967 some counties show drastic and unexplained decreases which call the quality of the data into question: Denton County decreased from 36,200 acres to 2,049; Andrews County from 2,000 to 10; Cottle County from 5,000 to 0. Pond numbers were reported for the first time in the 1977 SCS National Erosion Inven- tory Estimates, (SCS 1978) where Texas is listed with 126,881 ponds smaller than 40 acres, with total pond surface area of 409,000 acres. The SCS also reports another estimate of pond numbers in Texas, which is a cumulative count of the number of ponds for which the SCS has participated in design or construction. This figure was 299,038 as of 1981 (per. comm., J. W. Hill, Assistant State Conser- vationist for Water Resources). A much more intensive inventory by the SCS is currently under way. The current study is based on color infrared photographs taken by a NASA aircraft. The film con- sists of continuous frames of the Colorado River basin taken on three flight lines between the river mouth at the Gulf of Mexico and the headwaters near the New Mex- ico border. A smaller number of frames taken on one flight down the Brazos River watershed is also analyzed. The film, along with the flight documentation provided by NASA, provides an excellent op- portunity to investigate the rela- tionship of pond distribution to a variety of parameters. MATERIALS AND METHODS The photographs analyzed are from Mission 123, Test Site 213, Colorado River, taken on 13 March 1970. The photographs were taken using an RC-8 camera with a 6- inch focal length lens, 9-inch color infrared film (SO-117), and filter No. 12 (500-nm). The roll exam- ined was a duplicate of the original positive transparency film. The roll contained 195 frames of the Col- orado River watershed and 22 frames of the Brazos River water- shed. Contiguous frames overlap- ped approximately 30 percent and every third frame was examined, with 65 frames examined in the Colorado River watershed and seven frames in the Brazos River watershed. The flight paths are shown in Figure 1. The film was examined on a light table equipped with a movable stereomicroscope. A clear plastic overlay was con- structed which divided the central 200 >< 200 cm area of the frame into 100 blocks, each 2 cmz, making 10 rows of 10 blocks each. In eight frames spaced at intervals along the watershed, all 100 blocks were examined. For the majority of the frames, three of the 10 rows were selected at random and all 10 blocks in each row were examined. The rows were at right angles to the river. In all, 2,370 blocks were examined. Flight altitude and surface elevation varied along the flight paths, with the area covered by the counting grid varying from 450 to 529 kmz (174 to 204 square miles). This made the block, or counting unit, 2.12 to 2.30 km on a side. Flight book data permitted the calcula- tion of actual plane to ground distance for each frame, and area conversions were calculated for each frame to correct count data used for density estimates and statistical procedures. The ponds counted were scored, by observa- tion, into five size classes by com- paring them to a set of reference areas of known size. (Table 1). The number of blocks between the examined block and the river 1 I I I T T I I 6 I I T I -36° “WM TEXAS -< RED -34° “"1 -32° Co 0fAso i- RIO GRANDE *3“ A’ I _ ' NECHES- TRINITY - _ \ SAN JACINTO- h( BRAZOS “l?” I iléléiiBo 4 ~ COLORADO- _. _ LAVACA 28o LAVACA-— GUADALUPE SAN ANTONIO— NUECES _‘ >- NUECES- RIO GRANDE -26° 1 06° 104° 102° 100° 98° 96° 94° l l l l l l l l l l l l l Figure 1. Watersheds of Texas rivers, with lines showing flight paths of NASA Mission 123. Sections of flight path in the Brazos River basin where photographs were taken are shown by brackets. was also recorded. The photo- graphic frames used were located on the Geological Highway Map of Texas (Renfro and Feray 1973) and on the General Soils Map of Texas (Godfrey, et al. 1973) using the location data provided on maps in the flight information publication. Each frame counted was then classified as to geology and soil type using the following scheme: 1. Geology a. The color coded categories of the geological map (basically rock systems) were used as the units of classification, and each system present in the block was recorded. b. For each frame the following were recorded: 1. dominant formation in frame, 2. subdominant formation in frame, and 3. number of formations found within the frame. 2. Soils a. The color coded categories of the soil map (major soil associations) were used as units of classification. b. For each frame the following were recorded: 1. dominant soil associa- tion in frame, 2. subdominant soil asso- ciation in frame, and 3. number of soil associa- tions found within the frame. The following information was recorded for each county within which frames were censused: 1. Average rainfall (Pass 1980) vnfl . . TABLE 1. PARAMETERS FOR POND SIZE ESTIMATION Size of Corresponding‘ Pond Class Reference Areas Area on the Size Size Ground (hectares) Classes Ranges — <1.25 1 < 1.25 ha ( <3.1 acres) 1 mm? 1.25 (1.1-1.3) 2 1.25-2.5 ha (3.1-6.2 acres) 2 mm2 2.5 (2.3-2.6) 3 2.5-5 ha (6.2-12.6 acres) 4 mmz 5 (4.5-5.3) 4 5-11.25 ha (12.6-27.8 acres) 9 mmz 11.25 (10.1-11.9) 5 > 11.25 ha (> 27.8 acres) ‘Flight altitude aboveground varied somewhat, and a mean area value was used in the calculations. The range is given in parenthesis. 2. Agricultural region (BBR 1976) 3. Cattle numbers (TCLR 1976) 4. Runoff (LISGS 1966) 5. Slope (maximum altitude - minimal altitude) 6. Irrigated acreage (TCLR 1976) 7. Rural population (LISBC 1971) 8. Land resource areas (God- frey et al. 1973) RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A total of 14,965 ponds was enumerated, 2,598 in the Brazos River watershed and 12,267 in the Colorado River watershed. Distri- bution by size group is given in Table 2. Ponds as small as 0.2 ha could be recognized, and the over- whelming number of ponds in both watersheds is smaller than 1.2 ha. The distribution by size is very nearly the same in the two watersheds. Mean densities by size group are given in Table 3. Mean values for block area were used in the densi- ty calculations. Ponds of the two smaller size groups were approx- imately twice as abundant per unit area in the Brazos River watershed as in the Colorado River water- shed. However, the area covered in the Brazos River watershed is just over 10 percent of that covered in the Colorado River watershed, and the two watersheds. differ in climatic and “soil-influenced” characteristics. Figure 6a shows many frames of very low pond density in the upper Colorado, while the upper Brazos has its greatest densities in the upper- most reaches which were photographed. No photography TABLE 2. POND DISTRIBUTION BY SIZE CLASS, NUMBER, AND PERCENT FOR THE AREAS SURVEYED IN THE COLORADO RIVER AND BRAZOS RIVER WATERSHEDS Watershed Pond Size Class Total Ponds 1 2 3 4 5 (hectares) <1.25 1.25-2.5 2.5-5 5-11.25 > 11.25 (acres) <3.1 3.1-6.2 6.2-12.4 12.4-27.8 > 27.8 Colorado No. 11,477 693 120 30 47 12,367 % 92.8 5.6 1 0.2 0.4 Brazos No. 2,424 142 25 4 3 2,598 % 93.3 5.5 1 0.2 0.1 TOTAL No. 13.901 835 145 34 5O 14,965 % 92.9 5.6 1 0.2 0.3 TABLE 3. MEAN POND DENSITIES (PONDS/kmz) BY POND SIZE FOR THE AREAS SURVEYED IN THE COLORADO AND BRAZOS RIVER WATERSHEDS /*'\ Watershed Pond Size Class Total Ponds 1 2 3 4 5 (hectares) <1.25 1.25-2.5 2.5-5 5-11.25 > 11.25 (acres) < 3.1 3.1-6.2 6.2-12.4 12.4-27.8 > 27.8 Colorado 0.97 0.06 0.01 0.003 0.004 Brazos 1.7 0.1 0.02 0.003 0.002 was taken in the upper part of the Brazos River basin, where land use would be similar to that of the up- per Colorado River basin, and where pond densities would pro- bably be similar. The highest den- sities per frame found in the study were in the Central Colorado drainage. The pond numbers in the two larger size classes are too small to permit meaningful comparisons. In an unpublished study of Brazos County ponds, where all ponds from SCS photography, were counted, the pond density was 0.93 ponds/kmz, in general agreement with densities reported in this study. Frequency distributions of counts per block are given in Figures 2 to 4. Counts of over one pond per block were rare for the three larger size classes in either watershed, and are not shown. For size class 2 (1.25-2.5 ha) both watersheds had one instance each of 5 and 6 ponds per block, other- wise counts were predominantly 1 or 2 ponds per block. The pattern of distribution of size class 1 pond counts differed ‘significantly between watersheds. For the Colorado River basin (Fig. 2), the frequency declined ex- ponentially from 1 to 22 ponds per block, and then remained fairly constant. For the Brazos River basin (Fig. 3), the frequency of counts remained quite stable from 1 to 14 ponds per block, and then declined from 14 to 27 ponds per block, with the maximum density reported at 38 ponds per block. There is no ready explanation for the difference in frequency distribution; more detailed infor- mation on size of land holdings, differences in land use and other demographic data might suggest reasons. Of the 26 blocks with counts ) 30 in the Colorado River basin, 20 came from three frames in Llano and San Saba Counties. Two of these blocks had the highest pond counts observed (74 and 92 ponds). They included eight class 5 ponds () 11.25 ha), more than any other frame and 17 percent of the total class 5 ponds counted. The number of blocks with no ponds was twice as great 3 Logm of Frequency Pond Size Class 1 (<1.25 ha) Colorado River 11,477 Ponds i i l l I. I l 15 2O 25 3O 35 Ponds per Block Figure 2. Frequency of counts of ponds per block, for pond size class 1 ( < 1.25 ha), in the Colorado River watershed. Logm of Frequency Pond Size Class 1 (<1.25 ha) Brazos River Ponds per Block 2,424Ponds 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1b o. ' 9. ' . o O _ ' ' . Q . _ O O O OO O O O O .O 1 1 1 1 o1 Q 1 1 1 O 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Figure 3. Frequency of counts of ponds per block for pond size class 1 ( < 1.25 ha), in the Brazos River watershed. in the Colorado River basin as in the Brazos River distribution ofcounts for size class 2 ponds (1.25-2.5 ha) was similar in the two watersheds (Fig. 4). Variations in pond density with distance from the Colorado River are shown in Figure Assignment to the first category (one block from river) means that the river was in the block being examined. Since a block was from 2.12 to 2.3 km across, any change in pond density near the river must occur in a fairly narrow band or the ef- fect would be evident in Figure 5. However, no trends are apparent. The flight path of the photographic aircraft was more or less at a right angle to the Gulf Coast. Densities of ponds versus distance from the coast are presented in Figure 6 as average densities per frame. The data set for the Brazos is small, but the data are internally consistent and suggest significant differences be- tween the two basins in pond distribution for size class 1 ponds ((1.25 ha) and to a lesser extent for size class 2 ponds (1 .25-,2.5 ha). There were no significant trends in pond count with distance for size class 3 ponds (2.5-5 ha), and there were too few size class 4 or 5 ponds for reliable analysis. The data suggest that the parameters controlling the distribution of smaller ponds( (2.5 ha) differ from those controlling larger ponds () 2.5 ha). Differences in counts between watersheds are greatest for the smallest ponds. For the Brazos there is a consistent in- crease in pond density with distance from the Gulf. The Col- orado River basin is more com- plex. Like the Brazos, densities are low near the coast, perhaps limited in both watersheds by topography and land use. Away from the Gulf the Colorado densities first in- crease, and then in the middle distances show an extremely er- ratic distribution, coincident with the southern Edwards Plateau. The geology here consists of fractured and porous limestone and has high relief, both of which interfere with pond construction, except in stream valleys where ponds are concentrated. ln the upper part of basin. The g Pond Size Class 2 (1 .25-2.5 ha) I Colorado 3 693 Ponds a o > __ 2 21 m I :1 Q‘ _ a: \- E I! "6 I => __ T- m o J fi 1-- _ O J 111119“? O 2 4 6 Brazos _ 142 Ponds _ O 2-4 I _ O 1_. —< Q I I I I WM’ 0 2 4 6 Number of Ponds Figure 4. Frequency of counts of ponds per block for pond size class 2 (1.25 - 2.5 ha), in the Colorado and Brazos River watersheds. the Colorado (High Plains) rainfall is low, evaporation high, and few ponds can persist. ln contrast, the Brazos River basin, at the upper- most reaches photographed, has higher rainfall, and land use pat- terns are morfe favorable for pond construction. Pond densities in the extreme upper Brazos River basin would probably be similar to the upper Colorado River basin. The amount of watershed area that would be required to support the ponds in each frame was estimated using data from TSPE (1974) and pond density data from this study. The calculation pro- cedure is given in Appendix A. Figure 7 shows the fraction of the surface area which would be re- quired to support the observed density of ponds of the size in- dicated, if each pond’s water sup- ply were hydrologically indepen- dent from the others. (Jnder this assumption, 28 percent of the frames would require more than half of their surface areas to be in pond watersheds to maintain the pond surface they contained. Pond densities for the two larger size classes were to low to show clear trends. For the Brazos River basin the fraction of land surface re- quired to support size class 1 and 2 ponds closely follows the densi- ty distribution from the coast in- land. For size class 3, the fraction of land surface required shows a trend of increase as distance from the cost increases, though the count density does not. The size class 3 densities are uniformly low. For the Colorado River basin, the fraction of land surface required to support size class 1 ponds also follows the density distribution along the watershed. The fraction of surface area required to support size class 2 ponds parallels pond density in the lower reaches, but shows an inverse relationship with pond number in the upper part. This reflects the increase in evaporation losses and low precipitation in the upper part of the basin. Low count densities obscure any relationship between counts and the fraction of water- shed required to support size class 3 ponds. Note that if a large per- centage of the ponds intercept the outflow from other ponds, then the estimate of the fraction of the land surface area which is in watersheds is inflated. Hence, it is possible to estimate that more than 100 per- cent of the available surface area would be required to maintain the ponds. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The statistical characteristics of the distribution of ponds vary" con- siderably between photographic frames. We calculated coefficients of variation (C.V.) and the 95 per- cent confidence intervals (C.l.) around the means of pond den- sities in photographic frames where all 100 blocks were counted. The results are given in Table 4. Sampling errors are fairly large relative to the densities being measured. The skewness (shifting of the peak of the distribution right or left) and kurtosis (a measure of the “heaviness” of the tails of the distribution) of the underlying distributions were calculated. Data 5 1.6 1'4 7 s06 241 383 1.0 — 2 0.4 — Ponds per km O CD I 0.0 200 153 81 52 112 1 2 3 Blocks from the Colorado River Figure 5. Pond density versus distance from the river for the Colorado River watershed. Numbers above bars are number of ponds. TABLE 4. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF THE MEAN AT THE 95% CONFIDENCE LIMIT AND COEFFICIENTS OF VARIATION OF COUNTS OF ALL PONDS IN FRAMES WHERE ALL 100 BLOCKS ARE COUNTED 4 5 6 7 Frame Mean Lower Upper C.V. Number Limit Limit °/o Der Block 1982 .432 .356 .507 88 2012 .572 .466 .678 93 2042 1.250 1.131 1.371 48 2072 1 .684 1 .488 1 .880 59 2101 .412 .331 .493 99 2126 1.970 1.793 2.147 45 drawn from a normal distribution have skewness of O and kurtosis of 3; the values of these parameters for pond densities in each frame are given in Table 5.» These statistics indicate that the sampling distributions of the ponds are skewed to the left but show no regular trends with regard to kurtosis. Some caution must be used in performing parametric statistical tests since the counts of ponds in the blocks within the frames do not seem to be normal- ly distributed, and it seems unlike- ly that any normalizing transfor- mation would be uniformly appropriate. 6 Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationships between the various factors and the pond densities. The stepwise regression procedure was set up to sequentially report the best models for up to six parameters. It should be noted that the data set treated here is fairly large (72 frames). When inter- preting the significance of any regression based on a large data set, a highly significant F statistic may be obtained even though the correlation coefficient may remain small. The small correlation coef- ficient indicates that only a small fraction of the variability of the dependent variable is explained; the significant F statistic simply in- dicates that spurious correlations are unlikely and even a small cor- relation probably indicates a real relationship. The stepwise models used the following factors as independent variables: (1) rainfall; (2) runnoff; (3) fraction of land in irrigated acreage, (4) slope, (5) soil types, (6) geologic types, (7) cattle density, (8) rural population density of county; (9) density of habitations in frame, and (10) distance from the coast. The dependent variable was density of ponds in a frame of both the Colorado and Brazos River basins. The regression was carried out using the maximum R- square as the criterion for inclu- sion of a variable in the model. Table 6 defines the variables used in the analysis, and Table 7 shows the model selected at each step of the regression procedure. The regression for all ponds of less than 11.3 ha (Table 7) was signifi- cant at each step, but the coeffi- cient of determination (R-square) ranged between only 0.12 and 0.37. Since the independent variables, cattle density, and rain- fall for example, are not indepen- dent of each other, they tend to contribute some of the same infor- mation to the model. Thus, as more variables are added to the model, the significance of a par- ticular factor may decline as the in- formation it contains becomes redundant. If this occurs, then the factor may be dropped from the model, as it was when cattle den- sity was replaced by runoff in step 5 of the regression. lt is informative to compare the probabilities of occurrence of greater F for each of the variables in the six variable model in order to evaluate the relative contribu- tion of each to the prediction of the number of ponds in a frame: The smaller the probability, the less likely it is for the relationship to have occurred by chance, and the greater the predictive value of the variable. In this case, the fac- tor which contributed most to variability of total pond density ap- pears to be the slope factor, which is simply the difference between Ponds per km _ 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5- 1.0 0.5 3.15 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 .006 .033 ' A. All Ponds _ o 0 ' o ~ . o o’. A 0 Colorado - .. , A A A Brazos ..' . o o A ~91!- AA "f. a! ' o , , .4- Jr - ' o O B. Size Class 1 (<1.25 ha) o _ ' 9 . oo A o0 o A A >- . . A Io 0' o .' o‘ ~0 , o o ’ 6O ‘.02 Q a I .1 ,l"hfif o C. Size Class 2 (1.25 - 2.5 ha) ~ o oo . Q A A l‘ o '8 . t’ o oz ' ' ' f ' “A '. 000 . o 0.0+ " '1 n’ 1'1 ""PI'MLI»_ D. Size Class 3 (2.5 - 5.0 ha) _ o o o ' o - A 720 900 km From Gulf o1 Mexico Figure 6. Pond density versus distance from the Gulf of Mexico by pond size, for the Colorado and Brazos River watersheds. TABLE 5. SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS OF THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF COUNTS IN FRAMES WHEN ALL 100 BLOCKS ARE COUNTED Frame Skewness Kurtosis 1982 0.89 0.59 2012 1.28 1.39 2042 0.43 -O.40 2072 0.7 0.83 2102~ 2.10 7.13 2126 0.26 0.36 the minimum and the maximum altitudes in the county, and is a gross measure of topographic relief. The next most important variable in the regression model is population density in the county of the frame. The contributions of all variables to the regression were significant at the a=0.05 level, which indicates that each of the factors included in the model has a significant influence on the number of ponds constructed, and should be retained. It is important to remember that in a multiple regression model such as the one developed here, the effect of each variable can be thought of as being independent of the others. That is, the effect due to a factor such as population den- sity is equivalent to the contribu- tion which would be obtained if the population density were changed while cattle density was held con- stant. Thus, the importance of the slope factor may reflect the dif- ficulty of constructing ponds in areas where there are no valleys that can be dammed to form the lake basins, independent of any relation to population density. The high level of significance of population density itself probably reflects a situation in which a high population density is associated with small individual land holdings, where each landowner constructs a pond of his own to gain access to water for agricultural, recreational, and aesthetic purposes. The best single variable model had cattle density as its independent variable, and while the regression was signifi- cant, only 12 percent of the variability in pond density was ex- plained. Cattle density was relatively unimportant in the six variable model, indicating that it is related to the other factors in the model in much the same way as pond density. Different sized ponds tend to be built for different purposes. Small ponds are adequate for cattle watering, but ponds which are to be used as a source of irrigation water must have larger volumes. Thus, we decided to carry out the stepwise regression on the densi- ty of each of the different size 7 ‘"5 A. All Ponds A 12 0 Colorado A A Brazos 0.0 0 0 A 0.5 Q A ' ' ’. Q O 0.3 0 :1. ‘u '0 Q Q Q QQQ 0 ' r ' Jr I’ T . 1.2 _ B. Size Class 1 ( 1.25 ha) 0.9 A o A .5 0.6 0O‘ QQ A A 2 ' 0 ‘a g 0.3 pa’ ' 0'0‘ . Q . 1; I m. M ' ,Qq#' g 0 0 , Q , Z c. Size Class 2 (1.25 - 2.5 ha) .9 g 0.2. A A 0 A Q . Q "0 g 0 O.1~ I Q Q Q Q Q fl Q A.! ' ' p. Q.‘ Qr h Q f 0.0 ' Q D. Size Class 3 (2.5 - 5.0 ha) 0.2- ' . . o A ' 0 a ' Q n A ' ' 00_ ‘Al’, 00$. A ' . ' 0 100 s00 s40 120 900 Km from Gulf of Mexico Figure 7. Fraction of the watershed in pond watersheds, by pond size, for the Colorado and Brazos River watersheds. TABLE 6. VARIABLES USED IN THE STEPWISE REGRESSION ANALYSIS Variable Meaning CATD Density of cattle in dominant county of frame‘ DK Density of geologic types per unit area DIS Distance of frame from coast DN Density of soil types per unit area FRMX Density of habitations observed in frame lRR Percent of irrigated land in dominant county of frame‘ POPD Rural population density of dominant county in framez RAIN Rainfall in dominant county of framef’ RUN Runoff in dominant county of frame“ SLOP Difference between maximum and minimum altitude in dominant countys ‘TCLR (1976). ZUSBC (1971). 3Pass (1980). “USGS (1966). 8 classes of the ponds observed in the survey. Table 8 summarizes the results fromvthese regressions, and Table 9 gives the results in detail for size class 1 ponds. Since most of the ponds in the survey fall into size class 1, the regression model of size class 1 ponds is very similar; to that of the regression for total pond density. The density of larger ponds ap- pears to be more closely related to hydrologic factors than was the density of ponds of size class 1. ln the six variable model for size class 1, the most significant variable was rainfall, and in the six variable model for size class 3, the most significant variable was runoff. The six variable models for predicting the density of size class 4 and 5 failed to show significant results. However, the simple regression of percentage of irrigated land in the county on the density of size class 5 ponds is highly significant (P = 0.0065), which indicates that the only factor among the variables considered that was related to their distribution was irrigation. The dominant soil type of a region is closely related to the local climate, and influences both the regional hydrologic properties and the regional agriculture prac- tices. Since these same factors are related to the construction of ponds, soil associations, as given on the General Soil Map of Texas (Godfrey et al. 1973), may be used as a classification system for predicting some aspects of the distribution of ponds. Table 10 gives the soil associations which were present in the area encom- passed by the aerial survey, and the density of each size class of ponds in each of the soil associa- tions. Sixteen of the 66 Texas soil associations were represented in the sample. lt should be noted that the scale of the soils map used did not permit the identification of the many small scale inclusions of other soil types within the soil associations. Subject to the caveat mentioned, the data suggest that there may be considerable dif- ferences between pond densities for the soil associations, ranging from a mean density of TABLE 7. VARIABLE SELECTION DURING STEPWISE REGRESSION OF FRAMEWISE POND DENSITIES FOR PONDS LESS THAN ~<"\, 11.25 HA STEP 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 (rrrercear Kare/cam‘ 222222.022 Me/cep/ J/z/e/aap/ J/zza/aep/ J/P/a-‘ffiép/ hie/cap! Mia/cap) CATD* CATD CATD CATD CATD FIAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN MODEL SLOP SLOP SLOP SLOP CATD RUN FIUN CATD FRMX IRR IRR SLOP SLOP SLOP SLOP FRMX POPD POPD POPD IRR IRFI FFIMX FRMX FRMX POPD POPD - FRMX FRMX F12 0.125 0.205 0.252 0.295 0.313 0.321 0.324 0.352 0.372 PFIOB> F 0.0025 0.0004 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 *Underlined variables were significant at 0z=20.O5. Doubly underlined variables are significant at oz=0.001. Probability of F values of parameters of best six-variable model Variable Prob > F RAIN 0.0179 CATD 0.0206 SLOP 0.0002 IFIR 0.0271 POPD 0.0133 FRMX 0.0191 3.028 i 0.197 ponds (all sizes) per TABLE 8. RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF FACTORS IN PREDICTING POND DENSITY BY SIZE CLASS kmz in the Castell - Ponotoc - POND SIZE CLASS Ligon Soil Association to ALL 1 2 3 4 5 0.172 :1: 0.123 ponds (all sizes) per SLOP SLOP RAW RAW NS... NS kmZ in the Amarillo - Acuff - Man- POPD POPD D's DN sker Soil Association. The densi- RIF RAM CATD DK ty of larger ponds (size classes 2, g ‘fix RUN POPD 3, and 4) were highest in the Luf- 6W 6% FRMX FRMX kin - Axtell - Tabor and Wilson - |RR |RR DK IRR Crockett - Burleson Soil Associa- tions and lowest in the Amarillo - Acuff - Mansker Soil Association. Differences between pond den- sities in the land use regions de- fined by the General Soil Map of Texas (Godfrey et al. 1973) in the overflight area were smaller than differences between pond den- sities in the soil associations. Table 11 gives the densities of ponds in *Underlined variables were significant at o1=0.O5. “NS means that the regression was not significant at oz=0.05. TABLE 9. VARIABLE SELECTION DURING STEPWISE REGRESSION OF FRAMEWISE POND DENSITIES FOR PONDS LESS THAN 1.25 HA STEP 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept CATD* CATD CATD CATD CATD RAIN RAIN each land use region and includes MODEL SLOP SLOP SLOP SLOP CATD CATD data from 10 of the 15 Texas land EFRMX ‘RR IRR SLOP SLOP use categories. Note that the stan- FRMX POPD POPD IRR dard deviations of pond densities FRMX FRMX POPD inland use regions are larger than PRMX those of the soil associations, in- PROB > F 0.0040 0.0004 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 homogeneous and is probably more suitable as a unit for classification. fQWe also attempted to use geologic substrate as a classification variable, but the ‘complexity of the map gave data which could not be interpreted. Since many ponds are built for agricultural purposes, we also *Underlined variables were significant at oz = 0.05. Doubly underlined variables are signifi- cant at oz = 0.001. Probability of F values of parameters of best six-variable model Variable Prob > F RAIN 0.0161 CATD 0.0242 SLOP 0.0001 . . . IRR 0.0498 compared the densities of ponds 1n POPD 00097 the different agricultural regions FRMx 0,0177 TABLE 10. POND DENSITY (PDNDS/km211 STANDARD DEVIATION) BY POND SIZE AND SOIL TYPE Soil Association Frames <1.25 ha 1.25-2.5 ha 2.5-5.1 ha 5.1-11.25 ha All Sizes Lake Charles- Edna-Bernard 5 0.59610.201 0.05010.041 0.01410.018 0.00710.009 0.67110.265 Miller- Norwood-Pledger 3 0.827 1 0.346 0.084 1 0.049 0.034 1 0.022 0.002 1 0.004 0.959 1 0.367 Katy-Hockley- Clodine 2 0.86510.376 0.09210.014 0.01510.003 0.00010.000 0.97210.395 Wilson-Crockett- Burleson 3 1.94110.416 0.13810.028 0.02710.020 0.00610.000 2.11210.374 Burleson Heiden-Crockett 4 1.94410.831 0.15310.076 0.02810.011 0.00210.008 2.04510.934 Lufkin-Axtell- Tabor 4 1.49910.348 0.15310.088 0.02810.017 0.00210.003 1.68710.443 Castell- Pontotoc-Ligon 3 2.93210.176 0.07510.016 001210.007 000210.004 3028100197 Truce- Owens-Waurika 4 1.965 1 0.460 0.057 1 0.025 0.003 1 0.004 0.004 1 0.004 2.039 1 0.473 Abilene- Tillman-Vernon 9 0.31210.084 003710.037 000710.009 000210003 O.35910.103 Rowena- Sagerton-Mereta 6 0.490 1 0.335 0.029 1 0.031 0.008 1 0.009 0 0.526 1 0.358 Tarrant- Kavett-Rowena 4 1.59010.501 009610037 0.02110.018 0.01210.006 1.72410.497 Tarrant- Brackett-Denton 5 0.843 1 0.345 0.044 1 0.029 0.003 1 0.004 0 0.893 1 0.345 Tarrant- Kavett-Tobosa 5 0.47710.313 001510.016 0.001 10.003 0 0.49310.319 Tarrant- Brackett-Speck 3 0.67710.291 003710.022 0.0001 0.000 0 0.70410.295 Amarillo- Acuff-Mansker 2 0.12010.123 001310009 0.01310.018 0.01010.014 0.17210.059 Patricia- Brownfield- Tivoli 3 0.15310.101 0.03310.039 0.00210.004 0.00510.009 0.39510.293 TABLE 11. POND DENSITY (PONDS/km211 STANDARD DEVIATION) BY SIZE CLASS AND LAND USE REGION Land Use Frames <1.25 ha 1.25-2.5 ha 2.5-5.1 ha 5.1-11.25 ha All Sizes Region Coastal Prairie 9 0.99610.794 0.08810.049 002310019 O.O0410.005 108810.844 Claypan Area 4 1.54710.290 0.10210.051 0.02110.020 0.001 10.003 1.67510.298 Blackland Prairie 10 1.15910.583 009010080 O.01110.013 0.00310.005 1.26610.648 Grand Prairie 6 1.46610.986 004810022 0.00410.004 0.00010.000 1.52711.005 North Central Prairies 4 1.78510.294 0.12310.025 001810011 000310.004 1.19510.298 Central Basin 2 1.851 11.244 0.048 1 0.026 0.003 1 0.005 0 1.902 11.274 Edwards Plateau 11 1.14510.992 003810036 0.00810.014 0.00510.005 1.19711.031 Rolling Plains 13 0.45810.349 004710.040 001010010 0.0031-0.007 0.52210.369 High Plains 8 039510.541 003010035 000510008 000310005 050710.566 Bottom Lands 3 0.681 10.232 006010047 0.02310.019 0.01010.011 0.78110.306 covered by the survey (Table 12). While differences agricultural regions are smaller in general than those between soil 1O between associations, the range of densities is considerable, varying between 0.207 :1: .120 ponds per hectare in the Edwards Plateau large ranch 1.851 :1; 1.244 cattle-sheep-and-goats region to in the Edwards Plateau Central basin cattle-and- goats region. It is somewhat sur- _€ ‘d TABLE 12. POND DENSITY (PONDS/km211 STANDARD DEVlATlON) BY POND SIZE AND AGRICULTURAL REGION Agricultural Region Frames <1.25 ha 1.25-2.5 ha 2.5-5.1 ha 5.1-11.25 ha All Sizes Southern High Plains (farming, cotton, grains, sorghum, cattle) 8 Rolling Plains and Prairies (cotton, grains, sorghum, wheat, livestock) 12 Rolling Plains and Prairies (small grains and livestock) 5 Edwards Plateau (large ranches, cattle, sheep, goats) 4 Edwards Plateau (small ranches, cattle, sheep, goats) 6 Edwards Plateau Central Basin (cattle, goats) 2 Grand Prairie (livestock, small grains, cotton) 6 Blackland Prairie (cotton, livestock) 5 Blackland Prairie (dairy products, cattle, cotton) 4 Post Oak (cotton, livestock, poultry) 9 Coastal Prairie (cotton, rice, cattle) 8 0.39510.541 0.465 1 0.307 1.473 1 0.538 0.19710.111 1.17011.020 1.851 11.244 1.466 1 0.946 1.03410.714 1.431 10378 1.42310.696 0.602 1 0.191 0.30010.035 0.046 1 0.036 0.10710.041 000510007 0.04910.032 0.04810.026 0.04810.022 0.06310.049 0.13310.109 0.09510.051 0.071 10.042 0.00510.008 0.009 1 0.009 0.015 1 0.010 0.004 1 0.004 0.011 1 0.018 0.003 1 0.005 0.00410.004 0.006 1 0.008 0.017 1 0.017 0.021 1 0.015 0.02310.021 0.00310.005 0.50710.566 0.00310.006 0.52610.310 0.00510.008 1.60510.566 0.00210.004 0.20710.120 0.00610.006 1.76711.059 0.00010.000 1.90211.274 0.00010.000 1.52711.005 0.00410.006 1.11010.748 0.00210.003 1.58810.500 000310.005 1.54610.746 0.00610.007 071010.252 prising that the lowest and highest densities of ponds should be in agricultural regions that seem so similar, but the differences in pond density are probably due to the variability {of the geologic substrate of the Edwards Plateau rather than differences in . agricultural practices. The stan- dard deviations of pond densities in the agricultural regions are nearly as large, or are larger, than the mean densities, indicating that agricultural regions do not form homogeneous groups with respect to pond density. Data on pond densities arranged by county are given in Table 13. CONCLUSIONS lt is possible to inventory farm ponds from NASA color infrared photography and classify them by size by using a stereo-microscope on the light table. A frame from high altitude photography covers considerable area, which makes determining the relationship of pond densities to land use or soil factors difficult since most photographic frames will include two or more classification categories for geology, soil association, or land use. There was no significant change in pond den- sity when the river was in the sam- ple block (2.2 kmz), indicating that if there were any change in density near the river it occurred in a very narrow band. Many types of data on criteria which might be 11 TABLE 13. POND DENSITY (PONDS/km211 STANDARD DEVIATION) BY POND SIZE AND COUNTY County Frames x 1.25 ha 1.25-2.5 ha 2.5-5.1 ha 5.1-11.25 ha All Sizes Bastrop 3 1.67310.177 0.11510.054 0.02110.024 0.00210.003 1.81510.123 Borden 3 0.19710.143 0.05610.043 0.01310.013 0.00910.010 0.28710.147 Brazos 1 1 .70 0.062 0.022 0.000 1 .254 Brown 1 1.762 0.123 0.030 0.006 1.93 Burnet 4 1.3211.174 0.05610.020 0.00210.004 0.0010.00 1.38811.197 Coke 3 0.22610.087 0.01010.005 0.00210.004 0.00210.004 024010.100 Coleman 2 099610.370 008410.056 0.01410.011 001010.014 1.10710.433 Colorado 5 1.41210.882 011410060 002210.013 0.00310.006 1.55610.942 Concho 2 0.838 1 0.402 0.052 1 0.057 0.006 1.0004 0.003 1 0.005 0.900 1 0.465 Dawson 2 014410088 001510011 0.0010.00 000710010 017010062 Falls 1 0.694 0.050 0.011 0.006 0.761 Fayette 4 1.4310378 0.13310.109 001710017 000210003 1.58810.500 Fort Bend 1 0392 0.073 1 0.034 0.006 0.509 Hays 1 0.744 0.063 1 0.00 0.00 0.807 Howard 3 0.26110.118 0.01410.019 000210004 0.0010.00 027710.135 Lampasas 1 1.27 0.019 0.006 0.00 1.296 Llano 2 1.85111.244 0.04810.026 000310.005 0.001000 1.90211.274 Lynn 2 1.85111.244 004810026 0.00310.005 00010.00 052910251 Matagorda 3 0.681 10.232 0.06010.047 002310.019 0.01010.011 0.78110.306 McCulloch 2 1.32511.263 002210031 0.02210.031 0.00710.010 1.37711.336 Mills 1 2.242 0.045 0.006 0.00 2.312 Mitchell 3 037910051 0.04110.044 0.01310.013 0.0010.00 043610.048 Nolan 1 0.201 0.032 0.00 0.00 0.233 Palo Pinto 1 2.104 0.146 0.028 0.006 2.284 Runnels 3 065710.256 0.04110.038 0.00610.007 0.0010.00 070310.264 San Saba 3 2.26510.853 006310032 000710012 0.00710.004 2.34710.890 Sterling 1 0.227 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.227 Terrell 1 1.713 0.090 0.022 0.006 1.831 Tom Green 1 0.060 0.00 0.007 0.00 0.066 Travis 5 1.03410.714 006310049 000610.008 O.0041O.006 1.11010.748 Wharton 4 059510167 0.07910.050 0.02010.027 000410004 0.70710.260 Young 2 1.63610.334 0.11110.033 000910003 0.0010.00 1.76310.293 related to pond density are main- tained on a county basis, and are confounded by the lack of coin- cidence between photographic frame boundaries and county boundaries. The county data are suggestive, however, and can be useful as a guide to further research. ln the area photographed, over 9O percent of the ponds were smaller than 1.25 ha, and the percentages by pond size were nearly the same in the Brazos and Colorado River watersheds. Mean pond densities were similar for the Brazos and Colorado River water- sheds except for the smallest size group (<1.25 ha). ln this size group the density of pond counts in the Brazos River watershed (1.7 ponds/per kmz) was nearly twice that of the Colorado (0.97 ponds per kmz). However, the area covered by photography in the Brazos River watershed was much smaller, and did not include the upper part of the basin, which would be expected to have very low pond densities. ln an earlier 12 unpublished study where all of the ponds in Brazos County were counted, the reported density was 0.927 ponds/kmz, which is similar to the density observed in the Col- orado River basin. The Colorado and Brazos River watersheds dif- fered in the distribution of pond densities along their watersheds from the Gulf of Mexico to upstream reaches. Pond densities were low near the Gulf for both watersheds. Pond densities in- creased for the Brazos River with distance from the Gulf. For the Colorado River the densities were very erratic in the central part of the watershed, with the highest densities found in the study located there, along with many frames of very low density. This variability coincides with the southern Edwards Plateau region. The upper Colorado watershed, on the Texas High Plains, had very low pond densities. The pond den- sity differences are consistent with climatic and soil conditions in the watersheds. Total ponds 1.25 ha and smaller are estimated to be 102,000 for the Colorado River basin and 191,000 for the Brazos River basin. ln a 10 factor stepwise regres- sion analysis, the factor of the best six variable model which con- tributed the most to pond density was slope (a gross measure of relief obtained by subtracting the lowest elevation in the county from the highest). Population den- sity was the second most impor- tant contributor, and rainfall third. Estimates were made of the amount of watershed required to supply water to maintain the observed pond surface area in the photographic frames. Using the simplifying assumption that the watersheds were hydrologically in- dependent, we calculate that in 28 ‘l percent of the frames over half of the available watershed would be required to maintain the ponds. Because the assumption of in- dependence of watersheds fails in ‘J some frames with a high pond count densities, the calculated re- quirement may exceed 100 per- cent of the land surface area in these frames. lt is obvious that published numbers for the number of ponds in Texas are much too low. We estimate 293,000 ponds 1.25 ha and smaller in the Brazos and Col- orado River basins alone, as com- pared to SCS estimates of 299,000 ponds for the entire state. Inven- tory studies must be done in the other major watersheds before satisfactory statewide totals can be calculated, but some idea of the order of magnitude of the number can be estimated from our data. lf the area of the Rio Grande River basin is excluded, since it contains very few ponds, and the average pond density from this study (1.335 ponds/kmz) is ap- plied to the remainder of the area of the state, it is estimated that there are approximately 782,000 ponds 1.25 ha or smaller, and ap- proximately 842,000 ponds of all sizes in the state. LITERATURE CITED BBR. 1976. Atlas of Texas, Agricultural Regions Map. (p. 117) Univ. of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Business Res. Godfrey, C. L., G. S. McKee, and H. Oaks. 1973. General Soils Map of Texas. Texas Agri- cultural Experiment Station, Texas ASM University, and Soil Conservation Service USDA. Pass, F., Editor. 1980. Texas Almanac and lndustrial Guide. A. H. Belo Corp., Dallas, TX. Renfro, H. B., and D. E. Feray. 1973. Geological Highway Map of Texas. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, OK. SCS. 1970. Conservation Needs inventory, Texas, 1967. Texas Soil and Water Needs Commit- tee. U.S. Conservation Service, Temple, SCS. 1978. National Erosion ln- ventory Estimates 1977. U.S. Conservation Service. Washing- ton, D.C. TCLR. 1976. Texas County Statistics, Texas Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. U.S. Dept. Agr. Stat. Rept. Svc., Agr. Statistician, Austin, TX. TSPE. 1974. The Effects of Ponds and Small Reservoirs on the Water Resources of Texas. Texas Society of Professional Engineers, Austin, TX. USBC. 1971. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970 Census, Number Printing Office, Washington, D.C. USGS. 1966. Hydrologic Investiga- tions, Atlas HA-12, “Annual Runoff in the Conterminous U.S. U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C. Wetzel, R. G. 1983. Limnology, 2nd Ed. W. B. Saunders Co. of Inhabitants. U.S. Government Philadelphia, PA. APPENDIX Example calculation of watershed area required to support ponds in the study area. Data from observation 66 are used in the following example. The ap- proximate size of watershed required for each acre foot of pond water varies as a function of distance from the coast (see page 11, TSPE 1974). An approximation of the relationship was developed using a polynomial regression which gave A (1) V = 9.62 + (1.232 ><10-3)m + (1.148 ><10-“)m2 where A = acres of watershed to support pond M = Miles from coast V =volume of pond in acre-feet Observation 66 was 505 miles inland. Thus A acres (2) V- = 9.62 +(1.232 >< 10-3)(505) + (1.248 X 10-“)(505)2 = 39.5 converting to ha/m3, and calling the result R we have (3) R = 0.01296 lli m The volumes of ponds in each size class were estimated using the follow- ing areas and depths According to Wetzel (1983), the mean depth of lakes tends to be about one-half of the maximum depth. Thus, we can estimate volume of a pond in cubic meters as (4) V = [hectares area] >< [.5 >< max. depth m] X [10,000 m2] For size class 1 ponds, this volume (V1) amounts to (5) V1= [0.600] >< [0.5 >< 1.5)>< (10,000] = 4,500 m3 per pond Observation 66 has a density (D) of size class 1 ponds of 0.01713 ponds/ha. The total volume density V1(tot) of size class 1 ponds in the frame is (6) V](tot) = V, >< D = 4,500 >< 0.01713 = 77.005 m3 Finally we calculate the proportion of the watershed area (PW) required to support this volume of water, (7) PW = V1(tot) >< R = 77.085 >< 0.01296 = 0.9990 ha required/ha available Since V1(tot) is based on the number of ponds per hectare, we see that potentially, 99.9 percent of the watershed in the hectare may be devoted to supporting size class 1 ponds. 13 acre/foot