Extreme Temperature Maps

Northern Hemisphere Upper Level

Including maps of annual range of temperature

10,000 feet (3,050 'meters), 20,000 feet (6,100 meters)
10, 13, 16, and 19, kilometers

j Primed by
I U. 8. weather Bureau 1
Washington, D. C,

July 1945

 

 

 

EXTREME TEMPERATURE HIPS

 

PREFACE

The first 72 maps displayed in this volume
show isotherms of absolute maximum and absolute
minimum temperature at the levels 10,000 and
20,000 feet, 10, 13, 16, and 19 kilometers,
between the approximate latitudes 10° and 70°
over the Northern Hemisphere. These maps were
prepared through a cooperative project of the U.
S. Army Air Forces and the U. S. Weather Bureau.

INTRODUCTION

The definitions of absolute maximum and abso-
lute minimum temperature as used in this study
depended in large part on the data which were
available, and are briefly, as follows:

The absolute maximum temperature is the high-
est temperature observed during the last five
years, or in the absence of a complete record of
direct observations, the best estimate of that
maximum temperature which could be derived from
available evidence. The absolute minimum tame

ature is, similarly, the lowest observed tem-
perature in five years or the best estimate of
that minimum. The period of record for observa-
tions at 10,000 feet over the Uhited States was
more nearly ten years, and in general the
extremes at that level are prepared on the basis
of ten years. .

The approach to the general problem of
obtaining the extreme temperatures was determin-
ed by the available record of upper air observa-
tions over-the hemisphere, by the reliability of
these observations, and by the distribution of
the observations in time and space. The final
plan embraced the following steps: the collec-
tion of data; the establishment of reliable
extreme temperatures over North America for the
period of record; a study of the final North
American isotherms to discover pattern or mean-
ing; the application of this pattern, through
whatever systematic procedures could be develop-
ed, to the normal upper air temperatures over
Eurasia and North Africa, with due regard for
the temperatures actually observed over these
regions; a study of the observed extremes over
the oceans in order to arrive at methods for
their extension and use; and, finally, the coup
pletion of the isotherms around the hemisphere.
The idea of continuity was to be used both as a
guide and a check. laps would be analyzed first,
level for level, to achieve continuity in the
horizontal plane; lapse rate charts or cross-
sections, from surface to tropopause, and from
tropopause to the highest level, were to assure
a rational vertical picture; and graphs of the
monthly extremes were to be relied upon to give
smooth monthly and seasonal progression.

0n the charts which follow, the isotherms are
drawn for intervals of five degrees Centigrade.
The minimum isotherms are shown as solid lines,
the maximum as broken lines.

The exact levels are the same as those of the
Normal Weather laps, Northern Hemisphere Upper
Level, namely,3050,6100, 10,000, 15,000,16,000,
and 19,000 units of 0.98 geodynamic meter.

SOURCES OF DATA

Temperature data were obtained from original
standard level data, from the publications of

4 United States, Alaska, and Canada.

,0..qu

s

the yar1oug foreign meteorological services, and\)Sl parison made with the curves at 10,000 feet and

'from radio or telegraphic reports. Observations
from the latter source were regarded with some

with similar curves drawn for points in the
HHS United States and

Alaska, and the observed

suspicion and were used mainly as checks exceptEjiaTHGXteres adjusted.

in regions of very sparse data. The table at

The methods so far described yielded satis-

the and shows the sources of data for regionsSC' meactory results over North America at all levels

having any significant number of observations;
the numbers refer to the bibliography at the end
of this report. Temperatures for scattered
regions not listed in the table were in general
of use only as checks against the values deter-
mined by more indirect methods 18 19 2°. The
stations are representative of those within each
area having the longest period of record or
the most numerous observations.

METHODS OF ANAIJSIS
ANAIKSIS OF NORTH AMERICAN EXTREMES

Since the extreme temperatures over North
America were to be used as the basis for study
and for development of methods to be applied
elsewhere, considerable time was devoted to the
refinement of all data from stations in the
Trial quick-
ly showed that it was not possible simply to
plot the recorded absolute extremes obtained by
inspection of the data for each station and then
draw isotherms fitting these values. This sim,
ple analysis of the data ignored such obvious
difficulties as missing observations, instrumen-
tal and other errors, and the fact that the
length of record varied greatly from station to
station. In_an attempt to make all records from
the United States and Alaska comparable in time
and in reliability, the recorded extremes for
each month of each year were plotted on maps and
analyzed. Well-defined patterns were discern-
ible on these maps, the extremes for a consider-
able area often occurring on a single day; and
careful checking of the observations now became
a systematic necessity. The absolute extremes
at selected points were then found by interpolan
tion from the isotherms, and these values used
on the final charts. —

The record of upper air temperature observa-
tions over Canada was less than two years, in
general, but its proximity to the Uhited States
and Alaska made it a logical region for careful
study. The following method was devised for use
at the 10,000-foot level over this area: the
monthly extreme maps for each year, analyzed
over the united States and Alaska, were new
extended through Canada when data there or in
adjacent regions seemed to warrant ’doing so.
From these isotherms over Canada, mean maximum,
mean minimum, and normal temperature curves were
plotted for selected points.’ The mean values
were, smoothed, and these smoothed curves were
assumed to approximate very closely the mean of
the yearly extremes for each month. The next
step was to evaluate the deviations of the abso~
lute from the mean extremes over the northern
United States and eastern Alaska, draw isolines
for these deviations, and connect the lines over
Canada. For the appropriate points, the inter-
polated deviations in Canada were now applied to
the mean maximum and mean minimum curves, and
the final extreme temperatures obtained. At
levels above 10,000 feet in Canada essentially
the same procedure was followed: the: normal
curve and the two extremes were plotted on
graphs, the deviation from normal studied, come

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below 19 km.; at this level, however, the obser-
vations were so few, ranging from three or four
in the winter months to forty or fifty in July,
that the analysis of monthly extreme maps for
each year proved unsatisfactory. To permit
using all data for a given station for the
entire year, the normal and extreme curves were
plotted on yearly graphs for selected points at
19 km. The recorded extremes appeared to be
scattered in almost random fashion about the
normal, although, considering the greater number
of observations in the summer,there was some
slight evidence that the deviation of extreme
from normal is greater in winter than in summer.
It was decided to use the most nearly objective
method possible under the circumstances: the
maximum deviation of extreme from normal
throughout the year was plotted- for each sta-
tion, and the largest values used in drawing
isolines over North America. Since these iso-
lines of deviation from normal were distributed
almost latitudinally, the largest deviations
occurring in the south, they were simply extend-
ed around the hemisphere; with so few data, no
better estimate of the extremes at this ,level
seemed possible.

EXTENSION OF NORTH AMERICAN
EXTREMES AROUND THE HEMISPHERE

The extension of the North American extreme
isotherms around the hemisphere was accomplished
in essentially the same fashion at every level._
The first step in each case was a careful study ‘
of the data for individual stations. This study
involved the following steps: consideration of
the progression of observed extremes from month
to month throughout the year, of the nermal teme
perature, and of climatological features as sug«
gested by surface normals and anomalies; compar-
ison of normal and extreme temperatures with
those at similar localities in North America,
similar localities .connoting places of like

 

- tions yielding the extremes.

latitude, topography, continental or marine
exposure, and circulation; and finally, .an
adjustment of the recorded extremes,this adjust-
ment being affected by the number of observa-
It was found that
the most convenient means of making such a
detailed study was to plot on yearly graphs the
curves of normal and recorded absolute maximum
and minimum temperatures. Since similar graphs
had already been drawn for about forty points
over North America, as a check for continuity,
comparison thus became an easy matter. Samples
of these graphs are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
From the smoothed curves values of deviation'
of each extreme from normal were obtained and
plotted on maps of the Northern Hemisphere.
These maps were then analyzed, the deviation
patterns in regions of little or no data being ‘
made to conform as far as possible with those
over similar regions of good data. The whole
procedure synthesized, to some extent, the fol- -
lowing assumptions: for areas of sparse data
the normal temperature, as taken from the Normal
weather mapsl, should ‘be ‘the beat posSible
estimate of any temperature in these regions,

 

  

for any given map the range of deviation of
extreme from normal should always be small coma
pared with the range of the extreme temperature;
and the extreme temperature deviations or anoma—
lies should prove a convenient tool for climato-
logical reasoning. Since the deviations were
distributed in some continuous fashion over each
map, the largest values being roughly associated
with the colder normal temperatures, it was felt
that the deviation charts as finally analyzed,
when added to the normal, gave a fairly good
estimate of the extreme temperatures.

In the table below, the greatest range of the
deviation values appearing at any given level is
compared with the range of the extreme tempera-
tures for the appropriate map:

 

Range of Deviation Range of

of Extreme Extreme
Level from Normal Temperature
(degrees C) (degrees 0)
10,000 feet 24 57
20,000 feet 18 38
10,000 meters 12 27
13,000 meters 10 17
16,000 meters 9 32
19,000 meters 11 45

 

Another obvious attack on the problem of
obtaining the upper air extremes was to extrapo-
late from observed surface maximum and minimum
temperatures. Over land areas, this method was
useful as a check from the surface to 10,000
feet, particularly for the minimum temperatures;
over ocean areas, it was applied with consider-
able care. Additional ocean data at this level
had become available since the preparation of
the normal maps, and it was felt also that a
study of lapse rates offered a better starting
point (at least over the western and central
oceanic regions) for meteorological reasoning
than did the deviation from normal charts.
Accordingly, from month maximum and minimum
sea surface temperatures plotted and analyzed,
and from extreme temperature data at 10,000 feet
for island, ship, and coastal stations, tempera-
ture differences between these levels were
obtained and carefully analyzed. Highly quali-
tative as were these temperature-difference or
lapse-rate charts, they offered a rational means
of estimating the extremes at 10,000 feet over
the oceans; it was possible to study the maps
with respect to the sources of the coldest and
warmest air masses, the modification of these
air masses by the sea surface, and the attain-
ment of fairly homogeneous lapse rates over con-
siderable areas. For regions where the air tem-
perature could be expected to be much warmer
than the sea surface, that is along the coasts
in summer for the maximum temperatures, it was
assumed that little or no modification of the
upper air took place. Fortunately, considerable
coastal data and some for the critical ocean
regions simplified the problem implicit in this
assumption.

To summarize the foregoing, the extension of
the extreme temperatures from North America
, around the hemisphere entailed the following: at
10,000 feet, extrapolation from the ocean sur-
' face and analysis of deviations of extremes from
the normal; at 20,000 feet, 10, 13, and 16 km.,
construction of monthly charts of deviation from

 

normal, analyzed so that the‘ patterns for sec-
tions of scanty data conformed well with those
for regions of numerous observations; and at 19
km., construction of annual charts of deviation
from normal, with the deviation values assumed
to be a simple function of latitude. Thus the
greatest effort was given the 10,000-foot level,
the basis for vertical continuity and the level
of most observations, while the least care was
taken at 19 km. where there were fewest observa-
tions.

CHECKING

Checking the extreme temperature maps, as
finally analyzed, was largely a matter of veri-
fying continuity from month to month and from
level to level. The analysis of each station's
temperatures had already assured good continuity
for large areas of the hemisphere; for the rest,
the temperatures at some thirty points in areas
of little or no data were taken from the maps
and plotted on a temperature-height and tempera-
ture-time graphs. Curves drawn through these
points were in general so smooth that little or
no adjustment to the maps was necessary. Exank
ples of the temperature-height graphs, showing
normal and extreme curves, appear in Figures 3
and 4.

EVALUATION

It is hoped that the description of the pro-
cedures followed in this study of maximum and
minimum temperatures in the upper air has.sug-
gested the measure of reliance to be placed on
the charts which follow. Reference to the table
of observations shows that the results are most
dependable at the lowest level and least at 19
km. The following regions are listed in decreas-
ing order of reliability: the United States,
Alaska, western Europe, India, the higher lati-
tudes of the Atlantic,and the lower latitudes of
the Pacific Ocean. The extremes for other areas
are at best an estimate based on the normal tem-
peratures, the scattered observations available
there, and the limited statistical and meteoro~
logical reasoning which could be applied to such
a study. It should be noted that the normal tem-
peratures are considered the least reliable of
the quantities appearing on the Normal Weather
Mapsl; naturally the extremes, based at least in
part on the normals, can be expected to share
this defect. Nevertheless, for the purpose for
which the project was conceived, the isotherms
appearing in this volume at any level and over
any region should be a reasonable and an ade-
quate estimate of the highest and lowest temper-
atures occurring during a teahyear period at
10,000 feet and during a five-year period at
higher levels.

ANNUAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER AIR

The last 6 maps in this volume show the annu-
al range of temperature at 10,000 and 20,000
feet and at 10, 13, 16, and 19 kilometers over
the Northern Hemisphere and were prepared

through a co-operative project of the U S Army
Air Forces and the U. S Weather Bureau These
charts are an elaboration of earlier research,
undertaken by the Army, the Navy,and the Weather
Bureau, which had for its object the determin—
ation of normal pressures and temperatures in
the upper atmospherel.

The annual range of temperature as here
defined is the difference between the warmest
and the coldest normal monthly temperature at
any point. The values were determined at
selected intersections of latitude and longi-
tude for each of the levels, from the Ngrmal

eather Mh , and lines drawn for intervals of
five degrees Centigrade. Where the accuracy of
the normals was believed to permit closer defi-
nition of the annual range of temperature than
could be secured by linear interpolation between
the five-degree isolines, lines for each 2 1/2
degrees' range are drawn.

Since the temperatures of the Normal Weather
Maps were followed more or less exactly in the
preparation of the annual range of temperature
charts, questions of reliability and of ultimate
determination of the temperatures may be
referred to the former publication. It is suf—
ficient only to point out that the probable
accuracy of the charts is greatest at the lower
levels over North America, Western Europe, and
the Atlantic Ocean, which are the regions of
most ample data.

1. Normal Weather Maps, Northern Hemisphere
Upper level, U. S. Army, U. S. Navy,and U.S.
Weather Bureau. Washington, D. C. October
1944.

2. Upper Air Temperature Records of the U. 8.
Weather «Bur eau.

3. Upper Air Temperature Records of the U. S.
Army.

4. Upper Air Temperature Records of the U S.
Navy.

5. Upper Air Temperature Records of the Canadi-
an Meteorological Service.

6. Great Britain. Meteorological Office. Obser-
vatories' Yearbook, 1922-1937. london 1925-
1939.

7. Finland,Meteorologiska centralanstalt. Mete«
orologisches Jahrbuch ffir Finland,1932-1937.

8. France. Office National Météorologique. Bul-
letin guotidien, January 1937 to May 1939.

9, Hungary. Iagyar Kiralyi. Orszégos meteoro16~
giai és Faldmégnességi Intézet. fivkanyvei,
(Jahrbucher), 1925.1934. .

10. Spain. Servicio Meteorologico. Resumen de
observaciones aerologicas efectuadas en

Espana durante e1 afio, 1925-1935. Madrid,
1932-1936.

11. Sweden. Statens meteorologiskehydrografiska
anstalt. Arsbok, 1928-1933, 1935—1937.

12. Germany. Lindenberg Aeronautical ObServa-
tory. Ergehnisse der arbeiten, 1932-1933.

13. Baden. Badische Iandeswetterwarte, Deutsches
Meteorologisches Jahrbuch, 1933. Karlsruhe,
1954.

14. Germany,Deutsches Meteorologisches Jahrbuch
Teil 5, "Aerologische Beobachtungen“, 1935;
Parts l-12 of 1936, 1937, 1938.

 

 

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

India, Meteorological Department, Upper Air
Data, 1928-1935.

Italy. Ministero dell' Aeronautica. Annali
Dell' Ufficio Presagi, Vol. II, IV, V.
Ieipzig. Uhiversitat. Geophysikalisches
Institut und sachs. Iandeswetterwarte
Ergebniese der Registrierballonfahrten,1926-
1927.

observatorio
aerologiaj
O

Tateno, Japan. Aerologia
Observadoj meteorologiaj kaJ

f—

faritaj, 1932-19 3, Tateno, Japan.

 

Tateno, Aerologia obeervatorio,Raporto, Nos.
9-10, 1931-1932. Tateno.

China. Academia Sinica. National Research
Institute of Meteorology. Bulletin of UERer
Airvgurrent Observations, Vol. IV,1933;V01.
V, 1934. TIppendix to Vbl. VI 1935, "Aerolo-
gical Soundings of Kite Flight at Peiping."

United States Hydrographic 0ffice.Manuecript
Data.

SOURCES OF DATA

 

Total Nunber of Observations

 

 

 

-IO°

LENGTH OF RECORD OF EXTREME DATA- 5 YEARS

DATA SMOOTHED
FOR CONTINUITY

 

-l5°

-20°

UNCORRECTED MAXIMUMS
DATA

 

-25°-

~30°

NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE

fl

 

TEMPERATURE IN' ‘C.

-40°

/

UNCORRECTED
MINIMUM DATA
{J .

 

—45°

 

-50°

 

l l l l I J l l I I l 1 l

 

J F M A M J J A S O N 0

FIGURE I- MONTHLY VARIATION OF MAXIMUM, NORMAL AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT 6 KILOMETERS AT 50’N., II5'W.

0 Period of . Each Month
Record 10,000 20,000 10 kl 13 kl 16 kn 19 kn
ft. ft.

United States 2 3 4

Washington 1934-44 300 150-190 100-165 55-150 14-80 0-35

Charleston 1939-44 135-180 135-180 105-165 70-140 35-105 6-55

Brownsville 1940-44 120-150 120-150 120-150 76-130 60-90 14-55

Sault Ste maria 1937-44 240 170-200 120-160 75-140 25-100 0-25

Bismarck 1940-44 150-180 150-180 100-150 90-150 30-125 0-54

Oakland 1936-44 240-270 180-210 150-210 120-190 80-160 13-95

Seattle 1934-44 160-260 80-145 65-145 40-100 14-65 0-14
Alaskan Area 2 3 4

Juneau

Fairbanks

Dutch Harbor 1942-44 40-75 35-75 2-60 0-35 0-20 0

Attu 1943-44 5-60 5-55 0-40 0-22 0-10 0-2
Canada 5

Gander 1941-44 30-115 30-115 25-100 20-80 9-50 0-12

'Upper Frobisher Bay 1943-44 15-42 10-35 5-20 3-15 0-5 0-1

Prince Albert 1942-44 45-70 45-70 25-45 15-24 8-20 0-8
Atlantic Ocean 2 3 4

Greenland 1941-44 ’ 20-80 15-80 5-45 3-40 1-30 0-13 W

Iceland 1942-44 55-80 43-80 15-35 6-25 0-25 0-3

Bermuda 1942-44 0-50 0-50 0-40 0-10 0-2 0
Europe 6 7 8 9 ,

Larkhill 10 11 12 1942-44 6090 60-90 60-90 60-90 50-70 0

Paris 13 14 16 1937-39 60-100 35-75 30-40 30-40 3-25 1-20

Hamburg 17 1936-38 85 0 0 0 0 0

Slutsk 1934-37 0-35 0-30 0-25 0-12 0-5 0

lbscow 1936-37 3-25 0-25 0-20 0-10 0-2 0

Sevastopol 1936-37 0-20 0-15 0-7 0-5 0-2 0
Africa 3 -

Marrakeoh 1943-44 0-30 0-30 0-30 0-20 0-15 0-3
India 15

Agra 1928-38 -60 60 55 50 40 30
Pacific Ocean 4

Pearl Harbor 1934-44 250 65-100 0-25 0-20 0-15 0-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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FIGURE 5- TEMPERATURE-HEIGHT CURVES FOR
BISMARCK AND CHARLESTON FOR JANUARY.
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MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT 6 KILOMETERS. AT MOSCOW. “'00 '80 '50 -40 ~20 0 +20

TEMPERATURE IN °C.

FIGURE 4- TEMPERATURE-HEIGHT CURVES FOR
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