NOV 0 6 31:95 HQ 999 06 my Executive S ummary_ 1995 ‘ c 2 Report In congress on Hut-ot—Wedlock Chiluhearing IlEPAHIMEHIT [If HEALTH AHII HIIMAH SEHHIBES Sememller 1995 PI."?'..’C VEALTH Lynn. .HMR \ - : umv «.1 CF , ‘CS«L.!‘.J.'9.\llA// Executive S ummary Report in congress on [lul-ol-Wedloclr childbearing US. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Public Heal’rh Service Ceniers for Disease Conirol and Prevention National Center for Health Sia’risiics HyaTrsville, Maryland Sepiember 1995 DHHS Pub. NO. (PHS) 95—1257—1 Table of Contents IN THIS VOLUME: Introduction Executive Summary: Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States i , 1 by Kristin A. Moore A VAILA BLE IN FULL REPORT--SI;E BACK COVER FOR MORE INFORMATION: The Demography of Nonmarital Childbearing Introduction Overall Trends Tends and Differentials What’s Driving the Trends: Factors Affecting Change in Nonmarital Births The Path to Nonmarital Fertility Next Steps: Marriage and Childbearing after a First Nonmarital Birth Transfer Payments and Unmarried Mothers International Comparisons Technical Notes References Appendix A: Tables Appendix B: Observed and Standardized Nonmarital Fertility Ratios Expert Papers The Retreat from Marriage and the Rise in Nonmarital Fertility by Daniel T. Lichter Family Structure and Nonmarital Fertility: Perspectives from Ethnographic Research by Linda M. Burton The Effect ofthe Welfare System on Nonmarital Childbearing by Robert A. Moffitt How Nonmarital Childbearing is Affected by Neighborhoods, Marital Opportunities and Labor-Market Conditions by Greg J. Duncan Access to and Utilization of Preventative Services: Implications for Nonmarital Childbearing by Martha R. Burt Attitudes, Values, and Norms Related to Nonmarital Fertility by Arland Thornton Risk Factors for Adolescent Nonmarital Childbearing by Brent C. Miller The Consequences of Nonmarital Childbearing for Women, Children, and Society by Sara S. McLanahan Strategies to Reduce Nonmarital Childbearing by Theodora Ooms Introduction The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 requires that the Secretary, in conjunction with the National Center for Health Statistics, prepare an analysis of the increases in nonmarital (out-of—wedlock) births, provide comparative data from foreign nations, and identify potential causes, antecedents and remedial measures. Staff from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, the National Center for Health Statistics/Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute for Child Health and Development/National Institutes of Health formed a department working group to oversee the completion of this report. This volume contains the executive summary of the full report which is described in more detail below. Using data collected by the Department, primarily Vital Statistics and AFDC data, as well as some additional survey data, the report summarizes the current status and trends in nonmarital childbearing. In addition, information on related trends such as sexual behavior and marriage is included. International comparison data are also provided. In addition, in order to capture the complexity of issues surrounding out of wedlock childbearing, this volume contains a series of supplemental papers by experts from various social science disciplines. Because researchers from different fields approach the issue of nonmarital births from different perspectives, their analyses reveals varied and sometimes contradictory findings. Each author produced paper that summarizes the major literature related to nonmarital (out of wedlock) fertility in their field. In addition, the experts critically analyzed research findings, identifying areas of consensus, disparity and gaps in knowledge. The papers on antecedents of nonmarital childbearing include: - a description of the determinants of marriage; iii an ethnographic analysis ofthe relationship between family structure and nonmarital childbearing; a synthesis of literature that uses multivariate analyses to examine the relationship between public transfer programs and nonmarital births; a similar summary that focuses on the role of individual and neighborhood opportunities; a discussion of how access to and utilization of preventive services relate to nonmarital childbearing; an analysis of how the incidence of nonmarital childbearing varies with changes in social norms, both over time and across populations; and a description of the interrelationship of risk factors that lead to nonmarital childbearing by adolescents and identifies the lack of similar research on adults. Following the papers on antecedents is a paper that discusses the consequences of nonmarital childbearing on both parents and children. The final paper of the report provides a framework for developing remedial measures. Please see the back cover for more information on how to obtain a copy ofthe full report. HHS Working Group on Nonmarital Childbearing Office of the Assistant Secretag for Planning and Evaluation Kelleen S. Kaye Elisa C. Koff Pamela A. Holcomb National Institute of Child Health and Development/National Institutes of Health Christine A. Bachrach V. Jeffrey Evans Gesine K. Hearn Susan F. Newcomer National Center for Health Statistics/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Stephanie J. Ventura The Working Group would like to acknowledge the assistance of Sandy Smith, Public Affairs Officer for the National Center for Health Statistics. Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States Kristin A. Moore, Ph. D. Child Trends, Inc. Introduction In 1993, 1,240,172 births occurred outside of marriage in the United States. These births accounted for nearly a third of all births and drew the attention of policy makers, researchers, the media and citizens alike. The purpose of this report is to summarize available scientific information on nonmarital fertility and specifically to address four broad but critical questions. - First, what are the trends in nonmarital childbearing? What is the breadth and magnitude ofthe increase in nonmarital fertility? Who is having children outside of marriage? How do fertility patterns and trends vary across demographic and social sub-groups? - What are the consequences of nonmarital childbearing for children, for adults. and for the public? What negative consequences can be attributed to nonmarital childbearing per se, as distinct from consequences due to the generally disadvantaged circumstances of the couples who have children without marrying? - A third important question focuses on the causes of the dramatic increase in nonmarital fertility. What factors have contributed to the upsurge in childbearing outside of marriage? Any attempt to address 1 the issues raised by the increased incidence of nonmarital fertility requires an understanding of those factors. Most social and family behaviors are affected by numerous complex forces. Research findings on a variety of individual, family, neighborhood, community and policy factors that might affect the incidence of non—marital childbearing are summarized. - A fourth topic concerns prevention of pregnancy or childbearing among unmarried persons and policies and actions to ameliorate the negative consequences associated with parenthood outside of marriage. In particular, issues for federal, state, and local policy makers to consider are outlined, along with suggestions for policy initiatives that might reduce nonmarital parenthood. - Finally, reflecting the dramatic increases in nonmarital sex, pregnancy, and parenthood, the need for further research and better data is addressed. What Are the Trends and Patterns in Nonmarital Childbearing? Every indicator points to substantial increases in non-marital fertility in recent decades, but a slowing of the rate of increase in the last several years. - The number of nonmarital births has increased dramatically, from 89,500 in 1940 to 1,240,172 in 1993. However, the pace of the increase has slowed in the 1990s. Between 1980 and 1990, the number of nonmarital births rose on average by 6 percent annually. Between 1990 and 1993, the number rose by about 2 percent annually. - The nonmarital birth rate, which measures the proportion of unmarried women who have a birth each year, has also increased. The rate rose from 7.1 births per 1,000 unmarried women in 1940 to 45.3 in 1993. However, after steady and dramatic increases in the late 19705 and the 19805, the nonmarital birth rate has stayed the same since 1991. The nonmarital birth ratio describes the proportion of all births that occur outside of marriage. Between 1940 and 1993, the ratio rose from 38 to 310 per 1,000 births. Expressed as a percent, this means nonmarital births have risen from 4 percent to 31 percent of all births. This reflects both increases in nonmarital fertility and declines in marital fertility. Again, the 19903 have seen a slowing of the pace of increase. The nonmarital birth ratio rose by more than 4 percent annually during the 1980-90 decade, and by about 3 percent annually between 1990-93. Figure 1. Proportion of Births to Unmarried Women: United States, 1940-1993 401 Source: Ventura, SJ, Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States. 1980-92, National Center for Health Statistics. Viral and Health Statistics 21(53); Ventura SJ. JA Martin. SM Tal‘t‘el, ct 21]. Advance Report of Final Natality Statistics. 1993. National Center for Health Statistics. 1995. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States. 1993, Volume 1, Natality. In preparation. See Appendix Table 1-3 The incidence of nonmarital childbearing has been rising for more than five decades. Between 1940 and 1960, increases were slow but clear. Since the 19705, increases in the number, rate, and ratio of nonmarital births have been dramatic. Only in the last several years, however, has the pace of the increase slowed. Most notably, the nonmarital birth rate has not increased during the last three years for which data are available. Increases in the rate of nonmarital childbearing have been steady for teenagers throughout this time period. Among women over age 20, however, nonmarital birth rates rose through the mid-19605, declined, and then began to increase again in the late 19705. Increases in the proportion of all births that are nonmarital (the nonmarital birth ratio) reflect both an increase in the number of unmarried women in the population who are at risk ofa nonmarital pregnancy and also higher rates of nonmarital childbearing. The larger population of unmarried persons is due primarily to delayed marriage among the large baby boom generation, as well as increases in divorce and separation. The combination of a higher rate of nonmarital childbearing together with a larger population of unmarried persons has resulted in a substantial increase in the number and proportion of nonmarital births. Among all nonmarital births, the proportion that are first births has been declining. In 1993, less than half (48 percent) of all nonmarital births were first births. It is important to recognize that not all births classified as nonmarital occur to women living alone. More than a quarter of nonmarital births occur to parents who live together without being legally married. Research indicates, however, that these cohabiting relationships are not as long- lasting as legal marriages. Although about four in ten cohabiting couples marry within three years of a birth, the majority do not; moreover, marriages preceded by cohabitation are more likely to dissolve than marriages entered by couples who did not cohabit first. Other Western industrialized nations are also experiencing increases in the incidence of nonmarital childbearing. Trends toward delayed marriage, premarital sex, and cohabitation outside of marriage have occurred in a number of other countries. In 1992, the percent of births to unmarried women in the United States was 30 percent, but was higher in the United Kingdom, Denmark and Sweden. Americans are unique primarily because of relatively low levels of contraceptive use and very high rates of adolescent childbearing, compared with other industrialized democracies Figure 2. Percent of Births to Unmarried Women by Country, 1992 Sweden —50 Denmark —46 u.K.—31 use—30 France —31 Canada* —27 Germany — 15 Netherlands — 13 Italy -7 Japan .1 0 1O 20 30 40 5‘0 60 Percent * l99l data. Sources: Council ot'liurope. Recent Demographic Developments in liurope. 1993, Council of [Europe Press. I994; Statistics and Information Department. Ministry ot‘llealth and Welfare. Vital Statistics ot‘Japan. [992; Central Agency for Austrian Statistics. Demographic yearbook. Austria. 1992; Belle M. McQuillan K. Births ()utside ol~ Marriage: A Growing Alternative. Canadian Social Trends. Summer 1994. Statistics Canada. LII Wh Has Bir h ut i e of Marri e? Contrary to commonly-held beliefs, only 30 percent of all nonmarital births in the United States occur to teenagers. Thirty-five percent of nonmarital births are to women aged 20-24, while 35 percent are to women 25 and older. On the other hand, teenagers account for about half of allfirst births to unmarried women. Although the nonmarital birth rate is higher for African Americans than for whites, the majority of nonmarital births (60 percent in 1993) are to white women and the rate is rising faster among white women. Nonmarital birth rates are highest during the years from 18 to 29. Nonmarital birth rates tend to be higher among disadvantaged and less- educated women and those in urban areas. Among unmarried women aged 20 and older, women with less than a high school diploma are at least three times as likely to have a baby as unmarried women with some college. However, during the past decade, the nonmarital birth rate has risen in all age groups, in small towns as well as in cities. in all regions and states, and in all socioeconomic groups. When they hear the phrase “unmarried parent,” many Americans picture a teenage girl having a first child. However, there is no typical nonmarital birth. Nonmarital births can be first births, second births, or higher-order births. Nonmarital births can precede a first marriage; they can occur to a parent who is not married and who never marries; they can occur within a cohabiting relationship; or they can occur to a parent whose marriage has terminated. A woman with several children may have had one or more births within marriage and one or more births outside of marriage. It is important to note that more than 70 percent of single parent families have only one or two children. Among the women interviewed in the National Survey of Families and Households was a substantial sub-sample who had a nonmarital birth between 1983 and the time oftheir interview in late 1987 or 1988. Ofthe women who had a nonmarital birth during the previous five years, 61 percent were never-married at the time they were interviewed; l6 percent had the birth outside of marriage but had married by the time of their interview; and 23 percent had the birth after the dissolution of their marriage. Figure 3. Circumstances in which Nonmarital Births Occur: United States, 1987-1988 Widowed separated or divorced at time of birth / Never Married at / 23% time of birth and at / l987—88 interview \ 61% Never Married at time of birth; married at time of 1987-88 interview 16% ./ Source: National Survey of Families and Households. 1987-88 P h Prenthod u id fM rri Nonmarital parenthood is preceded by a series of decision points, including decisions about sex, contraceptive use, abortion, marriage, and adoption. Over the past several decades, premarital and nonmarital sex have become more common among adolescents and among Americans older than 20. Among women born between 1954 and 1963, who ever married, 82 percent had sex before they married. With delayed marriage and increasing rates of marital disruption, the size of the population at risk of having a nonmarital pregnancy has expanded substantially. Despite increases in the proportion of unmarried sexually active persons who use contraception, data indicate that married women are more regular users of contraception than unmarried women. In 1988, among sexually active women, 17 percent of never-married women and l 1 percent of previously married women were not using contraception, compared with only 5 percent of currently married women. These differences reflect a variety of factors, including more stable and predictable relationships among married couples, the higher incomes of married couples, and frequently a greater ease in discussing and planning for sex among married couples. Nevertheless, 82 percent of unmarried sexually active women were contraceptive users in 1988, primarily relying on the pill (39 percent), sterilization (19 percent) and condoms (12 percent). Couples who do not use any method of contraception contribute disproportionately to the incidence of unintended pregnancy; however, rates of method failure are also high, especially for methods that have to be used at the time of intercourse, such as spermicides. The vast majority of pregnancies and births to unmarried women are unintended at conception. Data from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth indicate that 88 percent of the pregnancies experienced by never—married women were unintended, as were 69 percent of the pregnancies to previously married women and 40 percent of the pregnancies to married women. Figure 4. Percent of Pregnancies to Women 15—44 that are Unintended, by Marital Status, I987 100 38 80 60 Percent 40 20 Currently Married Formerly Married Never Married Source: l-‘orrest, ll). 1994. Epidemiology ol‘Unintcnded Pregnancy and Contract Use, American Journal qfObA'Ielric Gynecology 17014854488. It takes sustained motivation to abstain from sex and/or contracept consistently, and for a variety of reasons such motivation is often lacking. Factors such as over—estimation ofthe risks of contraception, under-estimation of the likelihood of pregnancy, a lack of educational and career opportunities, passivity and/or impulsiveness, the cost of contraception, and ambivalence about sex, birth control, and pregnancy undermine the motivation to prevent pregnancy. in addition, sexual intercourse is coerced in some cases. In fact, data indicate that, among girls 14 or younger when they first had sex, a majority of these first intercourse experiences were nonvoluntary. Evidence also indicates that among unmarried teenage mothers, two-thirds of the fathers are age 20 or older, suggesting that differences in power and status exist between many sexual partners. These differences may be another factor undermining contraceptive use, especially when the female is quite young. Consequently, many couples who don't seek pregnancy nevertheless experience pregnancy. Little progress was made in reducing the rate of nonmarital pregnancies during the 19805. The nonmarital pregnancy rate increased among white women between 1980 and 1991 (from 69 to 81 pregnancies per 1,000 unmarried women aged 15-44), while it declined slightly among women of other races between 1980 and 1991 (from 180 to 174 pregnancies per 1,000 unmarried women aged 15-44). Unmarried women experience an estimated 2.8 million pregnancies annually. The probability that a nonmarital pregnancy resulted in a birth increased between 1980 and 1991, as the proportion of nonmarital pregnancies that ended in abortion declined from 60 to 46 percent. This decline in abortion was particularly large among white women. In 1991, nonmarital pregnancies were equally likely to end in birth or abortion; about one in ten ended in miscarriage. Figure 5. Percent of Pregnancies to Women 15-44 that are Unintended, by Marital Status, 1987 80‘ l I 1930 m 1991 601 40‘ Percent 20' Married Unmarried Source: Ventura et a1. 1995. Trends in Pregnancies and Pregnancy Rates: Estimates for the United States, 1980—92. Monthly Vital Statixlics Report, 43(1 1). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. The declines in marriage among couples experiencing a nonmarital pregnancy are as dramatic as the recent declines in abortion. If unmarried pregnant women who have a live birth had married at the same rate in the mid—19805 as they did in the 19605, the increase in nonmarital births would have been quite small. However, "shotgun" marriages have become the exception rather than the rule. From the 19605 to the 19803, the proportion of nonmarital conceptions carried to a live birth in which the parents married before their child was born plummeted from 31 to 8 percent among blacks, from 33 to 23 percent among Hispanics, and from 61 to 34 percent among whites. Figure 6. Among Women who Conceived Before Marriage, Percent Marrying Before Birth of Child I 1955-72 fl 1913.31 1"; 1932413 25; Percent White Black Source: US. Bureau ofthe Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No.454, Ferriliry ofAmericari Women: June 1990. Washington. DC: US. Government Printing Office Since adoption occurs after childbirth, it does not affect nonmarital birth rates; but the declining incidence of adoption has served to increase the number of unmarried persons raising children. Between 1960 and 1973, about one in five premarital births to white women were given up for 10 adoption, compared to less than one in ten in the late 19705 and only one in thirty in the 19805. Formal adoption is rarely chosen by unmarried black or Hispanic parents. Figure 7. Among Children Born to Never Married Women Aged 15-44, Percentage Who Were Relinquished for Adoption, by Race and Year of Birth: United States 70 - White 51 fl Black Li Hispanic (any race) 60‘ 50' 40; Percent 30 1960-64 1985-89 First conceptions ending in births to women ages 15-34 Source: Bachrach, C et al. 1992, Relinquishment of Premarital Births: Evidence from National Survey Data. Family Planning Perspectives 24(1)::27-33, What Are the Consequences of Nonmarital Childbearing For Women, Children, and Society? The central, and very difficult, task in identifying the consequences of non- marital childbearing is to disentangle the effects of a person’s marital status at childbirth from the effects of the person's other characteristics. The men and the women who become parents outside of marriage tend to be disadvantaged even before pregnancy occurs. If their children have problems or they receive public assistance, researchers must distinguish whether these negative consequences occur because the child was born outside of marriage or because of the parents' pre-existing disadvantages. The answer provided by research to date is that pre-existing factors account for much but not all ofthe difficulties experienced by children and adults in single-parent families. Despite consistent evidence of greater risk, the research also shows that the majority of children in single parent families develop normally. The exact magnitude of the effects that are caused by nonmarital childbearing has not been isolated, but effects have been characterized as small to moderate, depending on the outcome being examined. To date, little research has specifically examined the consequences of nonmarital childbearing. Thus, although a great deal of research has examined outcomes for children and mothers in single parent families, most studies of family structure have looked at single parent families without distinguishing among divorced, separated, widowed, and never- married families. These studies have found that unmarried mothers are less likely to obtain prenatal care and more likely to have a low birthweight baby. Young children in single-mother families tend to have lower scores on verbal and math achievement tests. In middle childhood, children raised by a single parent tend to receive lower grades, have more behavior problems, and have higher rates of chronic health and psychiatric disorders. Among adolescents and young adults, being raised in a single-mother family is associated with elevated risks of teenage childbearing, high school dropout, incarceration, and with being neither employed nor in school. Researchers find that these negative effects persist even when they take into account factors, such as parented education, that often distinguish single parent from two-parent families. Other pre-existing differences may, of course, still distinguish single-parent families from two-parent families. Researchers have increasingly attempted to take account of subtle and difficult-to-measure variations in motivation, values, aptitude, and mental and physical health. To date, such analyses continue to find poorer outcomes among children in single-parent families. 12 Up to half of the negative consequences for children associated with single motherhood appear to reflect the low incomes of these families. The remaining effects seem to be due to greater residential instability, pre— disruption conflict, and less parental supervision and/or involvement in childrearing. Studies do not find that (re)marriage resolves the negative consequences associated with growing up in a single parent family. Single mothers themselves experience elevated rates of depression, low self esteem, poor health, and general unhappiness. In addition, their marriage prospects are reduced relative to women who do not have a premarital birth. They also have an elevated probability of receiving not only Aid to Families with Dependent Children but Food Stamps and Medicaid. In 1992, 58 percent of AFDC children were in families with never-married mothers. As yet, little research has examined the consequences for men, though recent work indicates that men who do not marry experience few socioeconomic costs. Also, as noted only a few studies have compared outcomes for the children of never-married mothers with outcomes for children in other types of single— parent families. Results from these studies suggest that the consequences for children raised by never-married mothers are similarly negative to those of children in disrupted families. The optimum family situation for children is being born into and growing up in a family established by both biological parents, particularly if it is a low-conflict family. Thus, the research to date indicates that, given current economic and social realities, nonmarital childbearing has negative consequences for children, for women, and for taxpayers. What factors account for the high and increasing incidence of nonmarital childbearing in the United States? Causes of Nonmarital Childbearing During the last several decades, when the incidence of nonmarital childbearing was increasing so dramatically, numerous other changes were witnessed in virtually every other sector of society. Consequently, not only 13 is it difficult to disentangle what role these changes have played in increasing nonmarital fertility, it is unlikely that there is a single factor that explains this important social change. Rather, possible influences on nonmarital fertility range from individual and family characteristics, to peer, neighborhood and community influences, to local, state and federal policies and programs, and to larger influences such as the media and changes in attitudes, values and norms. Few studies have examined the predictors of nonmarital fertility using all of these measures. Indeed, studies that focus specifically on nonmarital childbearing are not frequent, though the number of studies is increasing in response to the rising incidence of nonmarital childbearing and the concerns of policy makers. Findings from the available literature are summarized below. The Role of Welfare A commonly offered explanation for nonmarital childbearing is the availability of welfare benefits for single mothers. This proposition takes two forms. The first hypothesizes that variation in the generosity of welfare benefits over time and among states has contributed to the growth in the incidence of nonmarital childbearing. A second hypothesis focusses on the existence of the program per se and asks whether and how the incidence of nonmarital childbearing would change if welfare were not available to unmarried mothers. Researchers have little capacity to address the second question because welfare is available in all states. A number of studies have addressed the first question, however, by examining whether states with more generous programs have higher rates of nonmarital childbearing or, sometimes, of teenage childbearing. States differ on a host of dimensions apart from their welfare policies and fertility rates which might also affect the nonmarital fertility rate. Therefore, varied statistical strategies have been used to make comparisons across states more appropriate. Results from these studies are inconsistent; but when an association is found between welfare benefit levels and nonmarital fertility it generally applies only to whites. Moreover, when associations are found, they tend to be small. Given that welfare benefits declined during the 19705 and 19805, availability of benefits cannot provide more than a partial explanation for increases in nonmarital fertility. Welfare policy has also been hypothesized to affect marriage decisions. Given trends toward delayed marriage, high rates of divorce and separation, declining remarriage rates, and more frequent cohabitation, half of US. women aged 15—44 had either never married or were no longer married in 1993. The possibility that welfare accounts for some of these marital trends has been examined in several studies with mixed results. Some studies find an association, while others do not. Again, the decline in marriage occurred during a time period when welfare benefits were also declining, making it unlikely that welfare represents a major cause of the decline in marriage. An additional possible influence of welfare has received little research attention. The hypothesis is that receipt of welfare on the part of one generation increases the propensity to avoid marriage and/or to have births outside of marriage in the next generation. The limited evidence on this issue suggests that long-term intergenerational welfare receipt may increase the risk of nonmarital childbearing; but it should be noted that long- -term recipients represent a small and uniquely disadvantaged portion of all women (less than 3 percent of all women). In sum, the evidence linking welfare benefits with rising nonmarital fertility is not consistent and does not suggest that welfare represents an important factor in recent increases in childbearing outside of marriage. A number of other explanations for rising rates of nonmarital childbearing have also been explored. Economic Opportunities for Women and for Men It has been suggested that increased wages and levels of employment for women have freed women from economic dependence on marriage. However, empirical studies have not supported this expectation. Rather, while higher levels of women's education, income and employment have been associated with later marriage, they are related to higher levels of marriage and lower rates of nonmarital childbearing. Similarly, marriage is more likely for men who are well-educated, employed, and who have stable and high earnings. In addition, the supply of marriageable men (e.g., employed men) is related to the nonmarital ratio; that is, the more employed men in a community, the lower the proportion of births that occur outside of marriage. Thus, better employment opportunities for men are associated with a higher proportion of births taking place within marriage. However, studies regarding the effect of male employment opportunities on the rate of nonmarital fatherhood, that is, the frequency of fatherhood among unmarried males, are not consistent. Moreover, economic explanations do not fully explain racial differences in family formation, nor do they provide a complete explanation for rising rates of nonmarital childbearing, as marriage and fertility patterns have changed among all socioeconomic groups. One study estimates that the deteriorating employment and earnings position of young men, particularly those who are poorly educated and minority, accounts for about 20 percent of the decline in marriage between 1950 and 1980. Thus, employment opportunities do not completely explain decreases in marriage or increases in nonmarital fertility. Nevertheless, there is fairly consistent evidence that improved socioeconomic circumstances are associated with a greater likelihood of marriage for both women and men, and that deteriorating economic circumstances, particularly for poorly-educated men, provide at least a partial explanation for rising nonmarital fertility. Neighborhood Influences ;_ ,v ' A variety of mechanisms have been suggested as ways that neighborhoods might influence marital and fertility behavior. For example, undesirable behaviors may be spread throughout a neighborhood by peer interaction. Adult role models may encourage negative or positive behavior. Positive behavior can be encouraged by the monitoring of behavior among neighborhood residents. On the other hand, the lifestylesflandstandards of better-off neighborhood residents may lead low-income, residents to feel discouraged about their own prospects and thus willing to risk a nonmarital birth. , ,. -. . l \' , ' l6 Some evidence has been found that neighborhoods affect behavior. For example, the absence of advantaged neighbors has been found associated with teenage childbearing, and the presence of high proportions of public assistance recipients has been found to be related to nonmarital childbearing. However, because disadvantaged neighborhoods tend to have multiple negative characteristics, while advantaged neighborhoods tend to enjoy a variety of positive attributes, it is difficult to distinguish among the various explanations. Moreover, most studies have found that individual and family characteristics are even more important than neighborhood and community characteristics as predictors of marital and fertility behavior. Variations in neighborhood characteristics cannot fully explain the increase in nonmarital childbearing, since increases have occurred across socioeconomic and geographic groups. Although the increasing concentration of impoverished persons within extremely disadvantaged communities does not explain the broader retreat from marriage that appears to be occurring across socioeconomic groups, it may help explain the acutely high proportions of births that occur outside of marriage in extremely impoverished neighborhoods. Individual and F amily Characteristics Although relatively little research has been conducted on the family and individual factors leading specifically to nonmarital childbearing, a host of studies have examined the predictors of teenage childbearing. This research consistently identifies several broad categories of factors that predict early sexual activity, pregnancy, and adolescent nonmarital childbearing: school problems, behavior problems, poverty, and family problems. More specifically, school problems include low grades and low educational aspirations. Behavior problems include early smoking, use of illegal drugs, alcohol use, delinquency and discipline problems at school. Poverty at both the family and the community level predict adolescent nonmarital parenthood. Family dysfunction has been examined in many forms. Research indicates that early sexual abuse increases the risk of adolescent childbearing. In addition, frequent residential moves and experiencing parental marital disruption have been found to elevate the risk 17 of adolescent parenthood. Also, varied measures of inadequate parenting, such as poor communication and a lack of monitoring and involvement in the child’s activities, have been found to predict adolescent parenthood. Unfortunately, there are few studies of older unmarried persons, limiting our capacity to provide an assessment of how educational and occupational goals and opportunities, risk-taking, family functioning, and socioeconomic status predict to the occurrence of first and subsequent nonmarital births among adults. Confirming the continuation of patterns identified among adolescents, or revising our understanding regarding older couples, represents a priority for future research. Attitudes, Values and Norms Dramatic changes have occurred in Americans' views of marriage and childbearing. It is difficult to assess whether changes in attitudes have occurred in response to changes in behavior or vice versa. Most probably, influences have occurred in both directions. Moreover, the changes that have occurred in attitudes to date represent a built-in support for sustaining the changes that have occurred, and may provide a momentum for additional increases in nonmarital childbearing. Major changes have occurred in attitudes about marriage. Although the vast majority of teenagers and young adults expect to marry, only a minority feel that marriage is an essential part of life for them. For example, only one in three young people agree that "It's better for a person to get married than to go through life being single." Similarly, despite a widespread belief that children develop better when they grow up with both parents and negative feelings about divorce as a way to resolve marital problems, four in five young people accept marital dissolution when there are children in the family and parents do not get along. Also, only three in ten young people agree that "single women should not have children, even ifthey want to." Living together without being married is also accepted by a majority of contemporary young people, and only one in five express strong moral disapproval. Concomitantly, most younger Americans accept premarital sex at least for older teens and non-teens. Despite strong disagreement on the acceptability of abortion for unmarried people, a substantial majority of Americans think that contraception should be available for teenagers and older persons. In general, younger persons hold considerably more tolerant attitudes than older persons. Also, more religious persons, regardless of affiliation, tend to hold more traditional attitudes. While youth care about the views of their parents, they tend to be equally or more attentive to the values of their peers on some topics. Indeed, many youth report acceptance of nontraditional marital and fertility behaviors from friends, and some youth report peer pressure to become sexually experienced. Moreover, the greater tolerance in recent years for sex and childbearing outside of marriage extends beyond the individual to family members, religious institutions, the media, and the legal system. Despite this greater tolerance for childbearing outside of marriage, few young people, or their parents, describe adolescent parenthood or nonmarital parenthood as desirable or sought-after events. Rather they are tolerated. In sum, the data paint a clear picture of increasing and substantial tolerance for nonmarital childbearing and the behaviors leading up to nonmarital childbearing. Even ifthese tolerant attitudes and values do not actively encourage parenthood outside of marriage for a given individual, they may increase its prevalence by reducing the personal, social and familial pressures that have discouraged nonmarital parenthood in previous generations. Strategies to Prevent or Reduce the Incidence of Nonmarital Childbearing Given that most pregnancies occurring outside of marriage are unintended at the time of conception, there would appear to be substantial common ground between the individuals who have children outside of marriage and the policy makers and citizens who seek a reduction in nonmarital fertility. 19 Despite this common ground, available research doesn't identify any one factor as the reason for the upsurge in nonmarital childbearing. Consequently, an array of interventions must be considered. While varied possibilities are suggested, a number of questions might be considered as policies are formulated. - Who or what system is the target of a given intervention? Are unmarried teenagers the target, or older unmarried persons as well? Are females the target, or males as well? Are poor persons the target, or all Americans? Are persons having unintended pregnancies the target, or is the target anyone who is not financially prepared to support a child without public assistance? 0 What is the objective of the intervention? To delay sexual activity among teenagers? To delay sexual activity until the first marriage? To discourage all sexual activity outside of marriage? To encourage early marriage, to reduce the risk of nonmarital pregnancy? To encourage effective contraceptive use and pregnancy prevention? To encourage certain resolutions of nonmarital births, e.g., adoption, abortion, or marriage? 0 What mechanisms that might affect the incidence of nonmarital childbearing are amenable to policy manipulation? - Is the intervention based on a short-term or a long-term strategy? For example, approaches to increase marriage, abortion or adoption would represent short-term interventions, while structural interventions to enhance job opportunities, to change community norms, or to improve education in at-risk communities would represent long-term approaches. How these questions are answered will presumably reflect considerations beyond the information currently available from statistics and analytic studies. Here, however, the goal is to draw upon available research to suggest a variety of strategies that might be considered by policy makers or program providers as they develop strategies to reduce the incidence of nonmarital childbearing. 20 Family Life and Sex Education For youth who are enrolled in and attend school, sex education programs can be developed that provide much—needed information about the risks and responsibilities of sexual activity. Research to date suggests that the most effective programs combine the teaching of abstinence with information about contraception; however, as yet even the best programs have had only small to moderate impacts. To date, sex education has been found to increase knowledge, and it has not been found to have unintended effects, such as hastening the initiation of sexual activity. On the other hand, standard sex education has not been found to have very substantial intended effects on behavior, though more comprehensive programs that combine elements such as role playing and assertiveness training have been found to have somewhat larger effects. Consequently, there is a need to develop, implement and evaluate stronger and more comprehensive curricula. In addition, there is a need to develop approaches that build knowledge and attitudes when children are in elementary school and which continue through high school. Parental and community involvement can help assure that programs address community needs and concerns. However, many youth at risk of a first or second nonmarital pregnancy are not attending conventional high schools orjunior high schools. In addition, most unmarried persons are not teenagers. Program providers might therefore consider introducing sex and family life education into job training and GED programs, programs for welfare recipients, television and radio, religious settings, correctional institutions, medical settings, and other places that unmarried people gather. Programs to Improve Educational and Occupational Options Research conducted among adolescents consistently indicates that those teens who become parents are more likely to be having trouble in school and are more likely to come from poor families and communities. Socioeconomic disadvantage also characterizes non—teen unmarried parents. Thus, correlational evidence suggests that enhancing the job skills, occupational prospects, and income of persons who face unstable and 21 poorly—compensated employment opportunities might be a promising strategy for reducing nonmarital childbearing. Such programs may, for example, facilitate marriage by improving the economic prospects of prospective spouses. In addition, enhancing future opportunities for people who often feel they have "nothing to lose" may increase the motivation of disadvantaged persons for preventing early and nonmarital pregnancies. In addition, such programs could help absent parents provide economic resources to marry the children’s other parent or at least to provide support for their children. Examining whether past or current job training programs affect not only employment and earnings but also marital and fertility behavior would be a useful addition to public policy discussions. At present, based on the available scientific evidence, it is reasonable to assume that increasing educational and job opportunities represents a promising strategy for promoting marriage and reducing the incidence of adolescent parenthood, unintended pregnancy, and nonmarital childbearing. Contr ce tive ervices Among all unmarried American women aged 15-44, less than one in ten are sexually active, do not want to become pregnant, and yet do not use contraception. However, these women account for about half of all unintended pregnancies in the United States. The remaining women who had unintended pregnancies were using contraception but experienced the failure of their method, or were not using their method correctly or consistently. Contraceptives are not used or are inadequately used for a variety of reasons, including a lack of motivation and concern over side effects; however, the cost and accessibility of services constitute an important barrier to the use of effective methods of contraception. Many women lack health insurance, and even those who have insurance often find that family planning services are not covered. Medicaid serves primarily women who are already mothers and/or who receive Aid to Families with Dependent Children, while Title V of the Maternal and Child Health program also focusses primarily on women who are already mothers or who are having a child. Hence, Title X of the Public Health Service Act remains the critical federal source of funding for pregnancy prevention among people 22 who are not already parents or on welfare. Although virtually all states also provide monies for family planning, overall funding for subsidized contraceptive services has declined since 1980. Increased funding for family planning represents an important step in reducing the incidence of nonmarital childbearing. mmuni Awareness and Inf rmation am ai ns Attempts to change individual and community attitudes about nonmarital childbearing (as opposed to adolescent pregnancy) have rarely been initiated or evaluated. Such campaigns could be informational, providing information about services available in the community, or persuasive, attempting to change attitudes about issues such as male involvement in pregnancy prevention and/or childrearing. Community involvement is essential to determine what the message should be, the target of the message, and the manner in which the message is conveyed. The Media Research studies have repeatedly documented the differential attention given in all forms of media to nonmarital sex, sex without commitment, spontaneous unprotected sex, and nonmarital parenthood, compared with the attention given to abstinence, contraception, and marital parenthood. Little information is provided regarding the risks associated with nonmarital sex or the costs of nonmarital parenthood, and relatively few positive role models are provided for stable married sex and parenthood. Whether such differential attention reflects changes in societal attitudes or is a cause of changes in social behavior is not clear; but both directions of influence seem probable. Such one—sided coverage may cause increases in nonmarital childbearing, or may simply miss opportunities to provide accurate information about the responsibilities of parenthood or positive role models for adolescents and adults. One possible response is for viewers to avoid programming that encourages nonmarital sex and parenthood. However, calls for parents to monitor the 23 programming and reading of their children seem most likely to be responded to by those parents whose children are least at risk. Moreover, appropriate approaches for older unmarried individuals have not been developed and pose substantial complexities in a free market economy and a nation that upholds freedom of speech. The availability of alternative programming (e.g., educational television for children), rating systems, provisions for parents to suppress undesired television shows which can be easily implemented by parents, and the addition of more positive messages (e.g., popular actors and actresses who abstain from sex or who consistently use contraception) represent potential approaches. Strengthening Families Research indicates that children from single parent families face an elevated risk of themselves having an early, nonmarital birth. Thus, reducing nonmarital childbearing might ultimately lower adolescent childbearing. Research indicates, moreover, that a majority of unmarried mothers had their first birth as teenagers. Numerous studies of adolescent sexual and fertility behavior suggest that family problems are a risk factor for early parenthood. Varied approaches to prevent sexual abuse, to support and preserve families, to involve members of the extended kin network in childbearing, and to strengthen the childrearing knowledge and practices of both mothers and fathers have been developed. Such approaches might prevent early nonmarital childbearing. They might also assist unmarried parents to provide a more supportive environment for their children. Whether such interventions might have long—term impacts in preventing unintended and nonmarital childbearing is a question in need of rigorous evaluation. Other approaches might focus on the marital bond, seeking to help parents form viable marriages. Couples who marry may need additional support to sustain positive, low conflict relationships. Programs that strengthen marriage would minimize the number of unmarried persons who are divorced or separated; they might also enhance the lives of the children in these married-couple families. 24 Pregnancy Resolution Decisions about how to resolve an unintended nonmarital pregnancy are intensely personal, and most programs take a neutral, counseling approach. However, consideration might be given to any financial, legal and policy barriers to adoption, abortion or marriage that serve to increase the number of nonmarital pregnancies that end in nonmarital births. For example, declines in access and funding for abortion in some communities may have contributed to the declining proportion of nonmarital pregnancies that end in abortion. Also, dramatic declines in adoption have occurred in recent decades, in part reflecting changes in attitudes but possibly reflecting legal and program obstacles to adoption and a lack of counseling that involves all concerned parties in reaching a fully informed and thoughtful decision. In addition, programs may help couples who wish to marry to overcome the obstacles they experience to establishing a viable marriage. Child Support Males as well as females can be the target of all ofthe programs discussed. Given custody patterns, one program that is more likely to be directed at males is child support enforcement. Not only does stronger enforcement increase the income available to children and make employment a more realistic alternative to welfare for mothers, enforcement may provide an incentive to males to prevent pregnancy or to marry. Research shows that men who do not marry the mothers oftheir children experience few of the costs associated with childrearing. Increasingly strict and sure enforcement of child support obligations could change the balance of possible costs and benefits for unmarried males. Although some of the fathers of babies born outside of marriage are teenagers, even among teen mothers two—thirds of the fathers are older than age nineteen. Hence, it is realistic to expect the vast majority ofthese fathers to provide at least some level of support for their children. While establishing paternity and enforcing collection of child support require resources, a gain achieved by sending a message about responsible fatherhood could make more rigorous enforcement increasingly cost-effective. For fathers who are unemployed or have extremely low and erratic earnings, education and training may enable them to provide support for their children. 25 Public Policy Research does not support the widespread contention that teenagers, unmarried women, or mothers already on welfare seek pregnancy in order to obtain welfare benefits or greater welfare benefits. Less research is available on incentives regarding marital decisions. The expansion of welfare eligibility to include two—parent families experiencing unemployment is intended to reduce any potential marriage effect; but it is not known how many unmarried fathers qualify under the work history provisions of the program. Research examining the effects of the expansion of AFDC to unemployed parents (AFDC-U P) seems warranted. Marriage penalties in other programs and in the tax code also merit re- thinking. Suggestions to cut back the Earned Income Tax Credit, which assists married as well as unmarried employed parents, also deserve thoughtful debate. In addition, the implicit marriage penalty in the Earned Income Tax Credit warrants the attention of policy makers. As noted repeatedly, increases in nonmarital childbearing reflect changes in marriage as much or more than changes in fertility behavior, emphasizing the importance of considering how policies and programs affect not just fertility but marital behavior. Research and Data Needs Considerable research has been conducted on adolescent parenthood, but far less is known about fertility and marital behavior among adults. While available research indicates that nonmarital childbearing reflects a broad array of influences, little research has been conducted that incorporates the full array of influences. Moreover, because many of the changes that have occurred have been quite recent, there is a need for research to be equally up-to-date. Descriptive studies that chart the varied patterns of marital and fertility events over time are needed. In addition, contemporary studies which examine marriage, fertility, and economic factors in tandem, are much needed. The differential implications of being never-married as opposed to being separated, widowed, or divorced also need to be examined, and the effects of cohabitation versus legal marriage need more study. Also, the mediating links between family structure and negative child outcomes such as school and behavior problems require further 26 analysis. Moreover, work is needed to understand the effects of media and the sources of recent changes in attitudes and values about marriage and childbearing. Since most research has focussed on teenagers and females, more studies are particularly needed of males and adults. Surveys that support the tracking of changes in marital and fertility behavior need to be continued, for example, the National Survey of Family Growth. Comparative data for other industrialized countries also needs to be more readily available. In addition, studies that have labor force and economic topics as their central focus need to incorporate measures of marital and fertility behavior as well, e.g., the 1996 Cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the planned extension of the Survey of Income and Program Participation referred to as the Survey of Program Dynamics. Research is also needed that examines the effect of natural and/0r planned experiments not just on labor market and income outcomes, but on marriage and fertility behavior as well. Such studies can examine the effects of policies implemented during the 19805 and should also track the implications of changes currently being implemented. Finally, interventions designed to ameliorate the negative consequences associated with nonmarital childbearing need to be evaluated, e.g., programs that assist absent parents to provide economic and emotional support to their children. Conclusions The dramatic increase in unmarried childbearing in the United States reflects changes in marital behavior as much or more than changes in fertility behavior. Americans are not having more babies; they're having fewer marriages. The economic and social circumstances which make marriage less attractive, less necessary, or less feasible, are one of the root causes of the increase in single-parent families. With young people initiating sexual activity earlier than before, but delaying or rejecting marriage, they face many years at risk of unmarried childbearing. Higher divorce rates and more frequent cohabitation have also increased the size of the population at risk of nonmarital parenthood. Most nonmarital births 27 are unintended, as parents are unable to obtain, do not choose, or fail to use effective contraception on a regular basis. Today three in ten births is nonmarital. There is no typical unmarried parent, but nonmarital childbearing is higher among those who are less educated and poor. Rates are higher among black women but rising faster among white women. Rates of unmarried childbearing have increased in all groups and in all communities across the country. The majority of teen mothers are unmarried, but the majority of unmarried births are to women in their twenties or older. Public concern tends to focus on adolescent parents, which is reasonable since half of allfirst nonmarital births occur to teens. Nevertheless, of all nonmarital births, seven in ten occur to women age twenty and older. Even among adolescent mothers, two-thirds of the fathers of the babies are twenty or older. Moreover, despite glamourous media portrayals of nonmarital sex and parenthood, most unmarried partners are economically and socially disadvantaged. Research studies indicate that single parenthood poses costs for the taxpayer and difficulties for mothers and for children that range from small to moderate in magnitude, depending on the outcome. Programs and policies to reduce nonmarital childbearing must reflect the many causes or factors associated with childbearing outside of marriage. Welfare is often asserted to be a primary cause of increases in nonmarital fertility, but research to date indicates that welfare is at most a small part of the explanation. Current welfare and other public policies may affect the likelihood that couples marry, remain together or remarry, however, possibilities that should be studied by researchers and policy makers. Given evidence that early and nonmarital childbearing are more common among disadvantaged persons, programs designed to improve educational and occupational opportunities -- for men and women -- represent a promising approach to reducing nonmarital fertility. Specifically, the presence of positive opportunities may provide the motivation to delay sex, use contraception, or not have a child outside of marriage. 28 The role of information about sex, pregnancy and pregnancy prevention, as well as access to contraceptive services also requires recognition. Misinformation about contraception, difficulty in obtaining access to contraception, and an inability to pay for contraception can increase the risk of unintended pregnancy, irrespective ofindividual motivation. In sum, as there is no one cause or consequence, there is no one simple strategy certain to reduce the incidence of nonmarital childbearing or to address the negative consequences associated with childbearing outside of marriage. Rather, it must be recognized that marriage and fertility have complex causes, ranging from values, economic and educational opportunities, family problems, role models, peer and media influences, the availability of contraceptive services and information, and public policies. us. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFlCE: 1995 386—981/42633 29 Announcing a special report “apart [I] The Department of Health and congress on Human Services has released for sale a special report to nm-m-welflflfll Congress on out—of—wedlock c ' ' births. Used by policymakers, nlldheal‘lnu analysts, educators, and researchers, this comprehensive '¢ report presents in one " convenient volume, easy-to— read and up—to—date statistics, as well as a series of comprehen— sive papers focusing on various issues in out-of—wedlock childbearing. nmmtlr Ir lam m IIIAI IEIVICEI mu IIII Chartbook The report includes a chartbook on out-of—wedlock childbearing with 60 figures and accompanying text, and 24 detailed tables. The chartbook is organized around several subject areas, including: 0 Trends and differentials in out—of-wedlock births 0 Factors affecting changes in the number and proportion of nonmarital births 0 The "path" to nonmarital fertility, and subsequent marriage and childbearing 0 Transfer payments and unmarried mothers 0 International comparisons Expert Papers The expert papers focus on the decline in marriage, impact of family structure, effects of the welfare system, the role of neighborhoods and labor market conditions, access and utilization of services to prevent nonmarital births, attitudes towards nonmarital childbearing, risk factors for adolescent nonmarital childbearing, the consequences of nonmarital childbearing for women, children, and society, and strategies to reduce nonmarital childbearing. To order, use the form on the next page. vmmnémmmr . .6“ 39A «:mE. Emu Ezmaxmv DH 9862 63m :_:__:__:____:: 985532 D «63 D a o; a > a D | E mEsooo< :mOQoD 0&0 D 2:: 5 m Hmmmwiv mEmc Eccem 5 cm Eoo mficoEsooo 6 Emccchmazw 9 0398 xooco D 2255. B 3522 x85 9:. cozcmzfmwmfium 88:63 .o\omm bum wmmma mEEBwso EcoszQE $9850 9 6033 m_ 98 mazucmc cam 96qu 8:69 8.022: 8:1 w m_ 590 E: 6 58 :22 9:. 8mm 8.on a 59% 5&3 5 2% 9:92.220 xoo_uw>>._o.so :0 $2950 2 :82. 6 8&8 82-8w Amos 22:0 52 223 op 82-“; Amos 988 50> xi o» # 23.28: Tammm M: I umEo 59A @926 mu ”053022 or: 9: vcwm ommma nmm> D Ron Vw 300 96885 690 E5; 590 :ozmefism mEmEzooo ho EmvcmEtmasm waflaun—EEU mus—wua.mc-a50 :c 39%ch 3 #395 we >95 (59» 0383 3 ES“ H338 m5”- om: DEC 0 4 1995 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE DEPARTMENT OF BULK HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES POSTAGEé Public Health Service ’ PERPAfi/ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics 6525 Belcrest Road Hyattsville, Maryland 20782 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 95—1257-1 5—1657 (9/95)