EARTH SCIENCES LIBRARY CE 73 P & v. i006 - A, 8 #A . 7 DAYS Demand and Supply of Nonfuel Minerals and Materials for the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90-A Preliminary Report Demand for Nonfuel Minerals and Materials by the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90 Supply of Nonfuel Minerals and Materials for the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90 GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 1006-A, B Demand and Supply of Nonfuel Minerals and Materials for the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90-A Preliminary Report Demand for Nonfuel Minerals and Materials by the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90 By JOHN P. ALBERS, WALTER J. BAWIEC, and LAWRENCE F. ROONEY Supply of Nonfuel Minerals and Materials for the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90 By GUS H. GOUDARZI, LAWRENCE F. ROONEY, and GLENN L. SHAFFER GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROEESSIONAL PAPER 1006- A,. B UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, WASHINGTON : 1976 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR THOMAS S. KLEPPE, Secretary GEOLOGICAL SURVEY V. E. McKelvey, Director Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Demand and supply of nonfuel minerals and materials for the United States energy industry, 1975-1990. (Professional paper ; 1006A-B) Includes bibliographies. CONTENTS: Albers, J. P., Bawiec, W. J., and Rooney, L. F. Demand for nonfuel minerals and materials by the United States energy industry, 1975-1990.-Goudarzi, G. H., Rooney, L. F., and Shaffer, G. L. Supply of non- fuel minerals and materials for the United States energy industry, 1975-1990. 1. Mines and mineral resources-United States-Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Materials-Addresses, essays, lectures. 3. Power resources-United States-Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Albers, John Patrick, 1919- II. Goudarzi, Gus Hossein, 1918- III. Series: United States. Geological Survey. Professional paper ; 1006A-B. TN23.D4 339.4'8'553 76-608194 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 Stock Number 024-001-02867-1 PREFACE The U.S. Government has announced a goal of energy independence within the next few decades. If such a goal is to be reached, major attention must be given to all possible sources of energy. Attention must also be given to the nonfuel raw materials needed to produce this energy-for example, the materials needed to build a drilling platform or a nuclear powerplant. The basic constituents of almost all these materials are derived from minerals. The U.S. Geological Survey has begun a Minerals for Energy Production (MEP) program to de- termine if increased energy production to attain energy independence would be constrained by an inadequate supply of minerals necessary to produce that energy. MEP has six major objectives : 1. To identify and project the quantity of basic nonfuel raw material needed by the energy industries 1975-90 to attain energy independence in the United States. 2. To review the domestic reserves and resources of those commodities identified and their geo- logical availability abroad. 3. To evaluate U.S. demand compared to adequacy of domestic resources, alternative sources of supply, materials that might substitute, and other pertinent factors. 4. To determine the most-stressed materials and to recommend research that would lead to new domestic identified resources. 5. To establish a computerized data base for nonfuel minerals needed for energy production. 6. To undertake field investigations of those nonfuel mineral commodities likely to be most stressed by increased energy production. This report is only a preliminary step in the MEP program to keep abreast of U.S. energy prepared- ness, whose vectors are rapidly changing in both direction and magnitude. Objectives 5 and 6 of the MEP program, not covered in this report, deserve further mention here. Establishing a computerized data base is an inte- gral part of the MEP program and will be required as a continuing effort. Through a systematic search of all literature on each particular commodity, data are gathered for every deposit or mineral district and compiled for storage in the Geological Survey's Computerized Resource Information Bank (CRIB) for future reference by researchers. In addition to augmentation of the CRIB data base and updates of the existing CRIB files on par- ticular commodities under study, a MEP computer- ized data base has been established. This data base, when complete, will contain all available essential economic information such as annual and cumula-. tive production, tenor of ores, reserves, resources, and production capacities for every known signifi- cant deposit of most commodities. The MEP files: are structured to be accessible through the Geologi- cal Survey's Geologic Retrieval and Synopsis Pro- gram (GRASP). As long as accurate files are kept up to date, funda- mental information with many economic applica- | tions can be retrieved virtually instantaneously in numerical and (or) graphic forms for each commod- ity in the data base. These files, which supplement the more general geological files stored in CRIB, will endure beyond the life of MEP to serve future min- eral resource projects conducted by the Survey or the Nation. Perhaps the most vital part of the MEP program is the detailed field investigations of those resources whose demand by the energy industries may be | large or whose supply may be short. At least to a rough approximation, this report identifies those commodities and suggests avenues of research. It is | of vital interest to the Nation to pursue those ave-| nues and whatever other avenues of research may | |help attain and maintain the Nation's energy inde- | pendence. III CONTENTS [The letters in parentheses preceding the titles are those used to designate the chapters] Page PrefACE .._... s- III (A) Demand for nonfuel minerals and materials by the United States energy industry, 1975-90, by John P. Albers, Walter J. Bawiec, and Lawrence F. ROONOY. - - . so eon ame a ora a ha e o ae mnd e ei on He hn at ce in Hi ai ne h on mine ee Rn te ot came ie ue o- al in a a ie aa ae B in in mee ie ao he A1 (B) Supply of nonfuel minerals and materials for the United States energy industry, 1975-90, by Gus H. Goudarzi, Lawrence F. Rooney, and Glenn L.; Shaffer ... B1 METRIC-ENGLISH EQUIVALENTS Metric unit English equivalent Metric unit English equivalent Length Specific combinations-Continued millimetre (mm) = 0.03937 inch (in) litre per second (1/s) l 0353 cubic foot per second metre (m) = 8.28 feet (ft) cubic metre per second kilometre (km) & .62 mile (mi) per square kilometre [ (m#/s) /km*] s MAT cubic feet per second per Area square metre (m) square kilometre (km*) square feet (ft") 386 square mile (mi) litre litre 1.06 quarts (qt) gallon (gal) hectare (ha) 2.47 acres Volume cubic centimetre (cm*) = 0.061 cubic inch (in') litre (1) = 61.03 cubic inches cubic metre (m?) = 85.31 cubic feet (ft?) . cubic metre = 00081 acre-foot (acre-ft) cubic hectometre (hm) =810.1 acre-feet litre = - 2118 pints (pt) cubic metre cubic metre .26 00026 million gallons (Mgal or 10° gal) barrels (bbl) (1 bbl=42 gal) Weight gram (g) = 0.035 ounce, avoirdupois (oz avdp) gram s 0022 pound, avoirdupois (Ib avdp) tonne (t) t - 1.1 tons, short (2,000 1b) tonne = .98 ton, long (2,240 1b) Specific combinations kilogram per square centimetre (kg/cm?) kilogram per square centimetre cubic metre per second (m3/s) = 85.3 0.96 atmosphere (atm) .98 bar (0.9869 atm) cubic feet per second (ft/s) metre per day (m/d) metre per kilometre (m/km) kilometre per hour (km/h) metre per second (m/s) metre squared per day (m2/d) cubic metre per second cubic metre per minute (m3/min) litre per second (1/s) litre per second per metre [(1/s)/m] kilometre per hour (km/h) metre per second (m/s) gram per cubic centimetre (g/cm?) gram per square centimetre (g/cm?) gram per square square mile = 18.28 feet per day (hydraulic conductivity) (ft/d) s: 15.28 feet per mile (ft/mi) = .9113 foot per second (ft/s) =. 18.28 feet per second = 10.764 feet squared per day (ft"/d) (transmissivity) = 22.826 - million fiallons per day (Mgal/d) =264.2 gallons per minute (gal/min) = 15.85 gallons per minute = 14.88 gallons per minute per foot [ (gal/min) /ft] .62 mile per hour (mi/h) miles per hour = 62.43 pounds per cubic foot (Ib/ft?) = (2.048 pounds per square foot (lb/ft?) centimetre = 0142 pound per square inch (Ib/in?) Temperature degree Celsius (°C) = d.8 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) degrees Celsius (temperature) =[(1.8x°C) +82] degrees Fahrenheit Demand for Nonfuel Minerals and Materials by the United States Energy Industry, 1975-90 By JOHN P. ALBERS, WALTER J. BAWIEC, and LAWRENCE F. ROONEY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MINERALS AND MATERIALS FOR THE UNITED STATES ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90- A PRELIMINARY REPORT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 1006-A Minimum amounts of mineral commodities needed by the energy industry are tabulated according to the major types of energy production CONTENTS Page Page ADsHT ACL "22%. > o. o o 2 oe non no ah nn ae anand anne a a aaa aie b aas A1 | Estimated basic material requirements-Continued iIntroduction~___L________________L_2 OSF _°°______ 1 Geothermal energy ___ All Acknowledgments ._.... .t - =-. cian cla cote 1 fHiydroelectric 'energy 12 A Nuclear energy 12 Projected energy supply and demand _______________ 2 Uranium mining and milling ______________ 12 Estimated basic material requirements _____________- 4 Uranium-enrichment facilities ______________ 13 Energy from fossil fuels 5 Nuclear powerplants 14 Coal /MIRIMG sae 5 Total requirements!to 1990-........__.._.__.__. 14 Coal transportation ........._._.____._._.__._ 6 SQIAF ENCTRY nnn nosis 14 Synthetic fuels from coal __________________ T Solar heating and cooling of buildings _____. 15 Oil and gas exploration and production ___. T Solar thermal conversion __..__..__.________ 16 Oil Shale _._. 8 Wind-energy conversion systems ___________ 16 Fossil-fueled powerplants __________ f 9 Bicconversion to fuels ................._.. 16 ._. 9 Ocean thermal-energy conversion ___________ 16 Desp-water ports 10 Photovoltaic electric-power systems _________ 17 Terminal for liquid natural gas _____________ 10 Electric-power transmission and distribution ___ 17 New pipelines 10 J ~~~, . anale an nne annees ats nian 18 Total requirements ____-L--___--_-_«._-couoccc.., 11 | RefCTeNnCOS CItOU -o cz cn le neb eee cn ena ene anos 18 TABLES Page TABLE 1. Some projections of energy production in the United States, 1985-2000 _____________________________ A2 2. Some projections of energy consumption or demand in the United States, 1980-2000 __________________ 2 3. Some projections of generating capacities of electric powerplants in the United States, 1983-2000 _____. 3 4. Assumed percentages of minor constituent materials in mining equipment, based on total weight ______ 5 5. Estimated basic equipment for one 4.5 million-tonnes-per-year surface coal mine _____________________ 6 6. Estimated equipment requirements for one 2.7 million-tonnes-per-year underground coal mine 6 7. Estimated basic material requirements for modular unit coal mines and total requirements, 1975-90 ___. 6 8. Estimated basic material requirements for transportation of coal via rail and water, 1975-85 __________ 6 9. Estimated basic material requirements for single coal gasification and liquefaction plants of different types, and total requirements for 30 plants, 1975-00 7 10. Assumed equipment and material requirements for oil and gas exploration and production, 1977-88 ___. 8 11. Estimated basic material requirements for oil and gas exploration and development, 1977-88 ________. 8 12. Estimated basic material requirements for unit models of oil-shale mines, and for oil-shale mining, 1975- 90> been cercessnsss ss antes se els test ases scene bs aun 8 13. Estimated basic material requirements for fossil-fueled powerplants,1975-85 ________________________ 9 14. Estimated basic material requirements for gasoline refineries, 1977-90 ______________________________ 10 15. Estimated basic material requirements for five deep-water port facilities ____________________________ 10 16. Estimated basic material requirements for one typical liquid natural-gas terminal for a tanker with a cargo capacity Of :750,000. DaTTClS ... . . ns eausenneiet us mins us ns i 10 17. Estimated basic material requirements for pipeline transportation of oil and gas from Alaska to the United States and from Western United States to Eastern United States ______________________ 11 18. Total estimated basic material requirements for energy production from fossil fuels, 1975-85 __________ 11 19. Estimated basic material requirements for unit geothermal plants, and total requirements for 4,500 MWe of geothermal energy in 1985 ~.. >-. - s a anns nantes nene icin ns ble fk ss 11 20. Estimated basic material requirements for additional hydroelectric generating capacity of about 53,500 MWe, 1975-90 :.. ns novel in code conc ack 12 21. Estimated equipment requirements for mining of uranium ore, 1975-90 ____________________________ 13 22. Estimated basic material requirements for mining of uranium ore, 1975-90 __________________________ 13 III IV TABLE 28. 24. 25. 26. 27. 30. 31. CONTENTS Estimated basic material requirements for gaseous diffusion plants, to 1990 ________________________._ Estimated basic material requirements for unit light-water reactor plants and for reactor plants with a total capacty of 500,000 MWe in AU90 ...... . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. - a o sa c + an an he a ao s un a ee ot me i m ah ne me i ue o e as an as ae an am r ne e mene ne ae te ns Estimated basic material requirements for one liquid metal, fast-breeder reactor plant with a capacity of T; -. se nel ole eens anal a an an idl an aw io aik i e Wn fel m is is me ae o ae he an alee fam ie m he ret mn in a e Ie e It h haat a il n ee i mane Total estimated basic material requirements for nuclear energy, 1975-90 ____________________________ Projected production of solar energy by various technologies, 1980-2000 ____________________________ Estimated basic material requirements for six main types of solar energy to 1990 _____________________ Estimated basic material requirements for four bioconversion technologies, 1975-90 _________________ Estimated basic material requirements for electrical transmission and distribution powerlines and trans- formers, based on additional capacity of 759,000 MWe, by 1985 _______________________________. Total estimated basic material requirements for anticipated significant energy sources, approximately 1975-90 Page A13 14 14 15 15 15 16 17 17 DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MINERALS AND MATERIALS FOR THE UNITED STATES ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90-A PRELIMINARY REPORT DEMAND FOR NONFUEL MINERALS AND MATERIALS BY THE UNITED STATES ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 By Jon P. AusERs, WALTER J. Bawikc, and LAwRrENCE F. RoonEy ABSTRACT Large amounts of certain nonfuel mineral raw materials are needed to attain U.S. energy goals 1975-90 as projected by the Federal Energy Administration's Project Independence Blueprint "business-as-usual" scenario. Estimates of nonfuel mineral raw-material requirements for modular units of fossil fuel, geothermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and solar energy pro- duction in this report permit computation of total material requirements for other scenarios. Minimum estimates of nonfuel mineral raw-material re- quirements for all energy types 1975-90 indicate that con- crete and iron are needed in the largest tonnages, but that substantial quantities of other materials such as aluminum, barite, bentonite, manganese, and nickel must also be avail- able if the United States is to attain energy independence by 1990. INTRODUCTION As attention has focused on a goal of energy in- dependence for the United States, the availability of certain nonfuel raw materials needed to produce energy has become of increasing concern. This re- port, a part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Minerals for Energy Production (MEP) program, seeks to estimate the amount of basic nonfuel materials needed to achieve the objectives outlined in the Project Independence Report (PIR) of the U.S. Federal Energy Administration (19742). As used here, "basic material" means an element such as aluminum or iron, or a substance such as concrete that is derived from minerals. Other required ma- terials such as wood, rubber, paint, plastics, and fiberglass are not included in the estimates. In order to limit the study to manageable propor- tions, only materials for equipment or facilities di- rectly used in the production and transportation of fuel or energy are considered. Equipment includes items such as drilling rigs, mine trucks, tractors; shovels, power generating plants, pipelines, and re- fineries, but does not include the tools and plants necessary to manufacture the equipment or facili- ties, except that the amount of tungsten that would be used in cutting tools is estimated. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the following U.S. Gov- ernment agencies that supplied information for this report: Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Mines, Bureau of Reclamation, Department of Transporta- tion, Energy Research and Development Adminis- tration, Federal Energy Administration, Federal Power Commission, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Tennessee Valley Authority. Also it is a pleasure to acknowledge the friendly and most helpful cooperation of the private firms and trade associations listed alphabetically below, and of 15 other firms and organizations who wish to remain anonymous. Without their assistance the material in this report could not have been compiled. Contributing companies, institutes, and trade associations Air Products & Chemicals Co. Allis-Chalmers American Iron and Steel Institute American Petroleum Institute Bethlehem Steel Corp. Bucyrus-Erie Co. Butler Manufacturing Co. Caterpillar Tractor Co. Crane Co. Dravo Corp. Dresser Industries, Inc. Electric Power Research Institute Edison Electrical Institute Foster Wheeler Corp. General Electric Co. General Motors Corp. Greenerd Press & Machine Co., Inc. Hercules Inc. Ingersoll-Rand International Association for Drilling Contractors International Harvester Joy Manufacturing Co. Keystone Electric Co., Inc. Lawrence Berkeley Radiation Laboratory Leblond: Longyear Co. A1 A2 Mississippi Marine Towboat Co. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the U.S., Inc. O'Brian Machinery Co. Ortner Freight Car Co. Pennsylvania Crusher Corp. Reed Tool Co. Rockwell International Rogers Engineering Co., Inc. Sprague & Henwood, Inc. The Refractories Institute Westinghouse Electric Corp. Wiley Manufacturing Winsmith Zapata Corp. PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND No one can predict with confidence the supply and demand of energy in its various forms in the year 1990. Many sources of energy, such as oil and uran- ium, are hidden in the Earth, and their quantities can only be estimated. Other sources, such as the Sun and oil shale, depend on technical achievements that themselves lie in the future, and complex and variable political and economic pressures can mod- ify both supply and demand. Lead time for most energy production is considerable, 10 years or more, and some of the early projections are out of date for this reason alone. Nonetheless, projections must be made if we are to plan for the future, and many such projections of energy supply and demand have been published. Representative projections are listed in tables 1-8. TABLE 1.-Some projections of energy production in the United States, 1985-2000 Reference 1985 1988 1990 2000 Petroleum (billions of barrels per year) U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. 3- Business as usual* ____________. 5.5 6.0 Accelerated development _______. 7.3 8.1 Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, p. 63. 5.3 xe Dupree and West, 1972, p. 109% :.. 4.1 wi U.S. Federal Energy Admm 1975, 4.5-5.1 ¥. reply to an international agency questionnaire on energy resource and development prospects, un- pub report, p. 6 8 Engineering and mining Journal, 4.8 RPL +i 1974, p. 76 4. McLean and Dnvns, 1973, .p. 81 ... 5.1 a= j. 8.7 -6.6 Morrison, 1974/99. BL Lescol cl cleo Wee - 9.0 National Petroleum Council, 1971, 4.0 Weim. ! I|. sass p. 14. Shale oil (millions of barrels per year) U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19748, p. 8- Business as usual ______________ 91 Fo: 1045; t eir Accelerated development ________ 365 2s 584 ~ eeu Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, p. 46. 110 Leia f ecews 730 Morrison, 1974, Se ci 1500 National Petroleum Council, 1972, 146 ae Ee w p. 117. Natural gas (trillions of standard cubic feet per year) U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974d, p. VI-9 5 Business as usual _______ 17.4 16.0%: ss 2229 ool Accelerated demand ___. 19.1 19.9.5. conus: | Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, 18.2 a* deedee 16.5 65. Dupree and West, 1972, p. 10.2 21.7 2. 22.1 Engineering and Mining Journal, 18 Ce He -e 1974, p. 78. McLean and Davis, 1973, p. 31 ____ 27 Am nge ous as 15 -25 Morrison, A974; D. B0 | wel" patek 50 National Petroleum Council, 14.5 &« 1971, p. 14. U.S. Dept. of Interior, 1972, p. 26... - 31 DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 TABLE 1.-Some projections of energy production in the United States, 1985-2000-Continued Reference 1985 1988 1990 2000 Pipeline gas from coal (trillions of standard cubic feet per year) U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974i, 0.06 anl 8.0 p. 106. Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, p. 65. «5 aa 4 - 4.7 Dupree and West,1972, p. 31° p 2 to co 00 wa m to w- to or Shell Oil, February 1972 ___________ 10.8 .:.. Shell Oil, March 1978 ______________ 9.0 10.4 11.7 Chase Manhattan Bank, 1972 ______ wen. 10.9. \... National Petroleum Council. 1972- Percent energy supplied domestically: Low growth 6D Culin se stserects DEMAND TABLE 2.-Some projections of energy consumption or demand in the United States, 1980-2000-Continued A8 TABLE 2.-Some projections of energy consumption or demand in the United States, 1980-2000-Continued Reference 1980 1985 1990 2000 Petroleum (billions of barrels per year)-Continued Adapted from National Academy of Science, 1975b-Continued National Petroleum Council-Continued Percent energy supplied domestically-Continued SMB olo elec se» Sib}: eoubdeuenes 9.9. cess. 8.5 9.0 10.4 11.9 9.5 10.4 11.6 a 12.2 In: 7.2 8.6 Morrison, W. E., 1973- Case A _. 7.0 8.5 Case B _. 6.9 8.1 Case C .. 6.4 7.5 CaSQ D ~.. our nasil aas cons T4 8.8 Darmstadter, 1971, p. £048 __________ Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, p. 82°... Dupree and West, 1972, p. 10 ___.... Engineering and Mining Journal, 1974, p. 78.4 Morrison, 1974, p. 50 ..._....__._.... National Petroleum Council, 1971, p. 14. U.S. Department of Interior, 1972, p. 12. Adapted from National Academy of Sciences, 1975b, p. A/8-9 (10% Btu's per year') : Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc., 28.0 1968. U.S. Department of Interior, 1968... 25.5 U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1968 bb Sule. Texas Eastern Transmission Corp., 31.9 38.7 27.7 24.3 wae 40.6 1968. American Gas Association, 1968 __.. $5.6 . .... Chase Manhattan Bank, 1968 _______ - 24.3 ___.. «erk American Gas Association, 1969 ___. 32.3 40.3 _ 49.7 Stanford Research Institute, 1970 _. 209. ..... taze Morrison, 'W. E., 1970 BTA ..... 35.0 EBASCO Services, Inc., 1970 .._... 30.4 $5.0: =<. Resources for the Future, Inc., 1971... B18 35.0 47.0 U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1970 _________ area * Cues Lull - 85.9-57.5 National Petroleum Council, 1971... 22.4 . Schurr, S. H. and Homan, P. T., BTB > Sur< 1971. Steele. H. B., 1971 24.7 242 .... Shell OU, March 1973 24.7 24.8 23.0 National Petroleum Council, 1972- Percent energy supplied domestically: Deb 26.9 82. ners - 80.6 -.. 25.2 BSA Y ~.. 80.5 _. 21.1 21:9: .... 18.6 ... a = z 17.8 15.5 24.0 U.S. Department of I , A978... 27.0 25.4: *... Chase Manhattan Bank, 1972 ______. seek BTI ... M18 Reference 1980 1985 1990 2000 Coal (millions of metric tonnes per year)'-Continued Adapted from National Academy of Science, 1975b-Continued Texas Eastern Transmission Corp., 722 - 838 Fee 1968. Stanford Research Institute, 1970... 562. z«=«s Morrison, W. E., 1970 ._____.. @ 640 "S..... ~ EBASCO Services, Inc., 1970 2 664 _ 747 Schurr, S. H., and Homan, P. T., 649. "-_ 1971. National Petroleum Council, 1971... 722 - 842 Cte ie ams Schurr, S. H., and Homan, P. T., 602 .-... tun! wien 1971. Stecie, H. B.,; 1971 562 617 Shell Oil, February 1972 . a 649 _ 689 Suss Shell Oil, March 1978 .._..__.._._... 613 - 689 845 National Petroleum Council, 1972- Percentage energy supplied domestically: 19 660 1088... .... 80.5 _. eek 555 - 722 sage TBB 522 628 das U.S. Department of Interior, 1973. 584 - 780 s Chase Manhattan Bank, 1972 ______ iew M18 Sake Federal Power Commission, 1973- CBSE A ef vane w walks - cen 602 _ 678 578 Case B .. 2 606 _ 693 795 Case 559 642 - 736 CasgiD cus Aerie. 649 _ 747 856 * Sum of production and imports at $11 per barrel in mid-1973 dollars. * No imports. 3 Converted from Btu's. + Its source: The National Petroleum Council. ° Approximately equivalent to trillions of standard cubic feet per year. ® Projections have been categorized as consumption or demand in the references cited; however, with regard to coal, the terms appear to have been used almost interchangeably. * Converted from barrels of oil. TABLE 3.-Some projections of generating capacities of elec- tric powerplants in the United States, 1988-2000 [In 1,000 megawatts of electrical generating capacity (1,000 MWe )] 1984- Reference 1983 _ 1985 1990 93 2000 Hydroelectric U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 66 - _______ ce 9 os 1974j, p. 36. Dupree and Corsentino, 1975, . 94 wee Po. 153 p. 36. Hittman Associates, Inc., Ji I 69: 89 1972, p. IV-15. U.S. Atomic Energy Comm., _ .. 97 16. 150 1974a, p. 14. U.S. Federal Power Comm., 1971, p. 1-18-29- Conventional ____...__... Ie * 82 - nee Pumped storage _________ 4+ 10. ss " Fossil fuels U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974a, p. 127- Business as usual: as 327 seu Nee 3. 81 sisted. 4s 48 Fre.. =k as 162 ¥en: we 618 4. 379 Tew fms #. 64 Pee ike s 4. 48 awe cous Combustion turbine ____ __ 171 OUAL E 22 662 Dupree and Corsentino, a- 603 m 1975, p. 36. Hittman Associates, Inc., Pe Se cues uy 569 .. 745 1972, p. IV-15. U.S. Atomic Energy Comm., .. 472 $70 .. 780 1974a, p. 14. U.S. Federal Power Comm., 6-2. 689: . 1971, p. 1-18-29. Nuclear U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. 3.1-1 and 3.1-2- Business as usual _______. i- 275 500 .. L...1sc. Accelerated development. __ 400 NIO e. < in- saner Dupree and Corsentino, J- 200 .:.... yc 900 1975, p. 36. A4 TABLE 3.-Some projections of generating capacities of elec- tric powerplants in the United States, 1988-2000-Continued 1984- Reference 1983 _ 1985 1990 93 2000 Nuclear-Continued Engineering and Mining Journal 1974, p. 80- ____________________ P 332 602 . 1500 Most likely =% 280 - 508 ._. 1200 ____________________ 2s 256 412 .. 825 Hittman Associates, Inc., $48... 671 1972, p. IV-15. MttreZCox-poratlon. 1975, S 95 es us. "Cue o U. S Atomic Energy Comm., _ . 231 475 .. 1090 1974s, p. 14. U.S. Atomic Energy Comm., 19741) p. 6- Case A __________________ oo 281 410 >-- 850 so 260 500 _. 1200 22 275 B76 __ 1400 a= 250 . 46 -.. 1090 U.S. Department of Interior, - __ ________ 447 >. 903 1972, p. 15. U.S. Federal Energy Admin., ._ 169-242 ESL Pass 1975, Reply to an inter- national agency question- naire on energy resources and development pros- pecgs, unpub. report, p. U.S. Federal Power Comm., a=. ATB - 1971, p. 1-18-29. Geothermal U.S. Federal Energy Admin., _. 31 101 - 28 1974e, p. V-4. Dupree and Corsentino, % 3 Tek leew 10 1975, p. 36. Electric Power Institute, Per 5 ee thes 100 1975, oral commun. Adapted from U.S. Federal Admin., 1974c, table 9, p. A2-2: U.S. Bureau of Mines, ay 4 Ls. Sue 40 1972 U.S. Depntment of In- oz 19 Fadl: =e 75 terior, 1972. National Petroleum Coun- cil, 1972: Case I y- 19 ss o oe Case IV ..:i:s.cl_l_... f p Tail k. l Geothermal Energy, W. hes 132 yas) 395 Hickel, 1972. Rex and Howell, 1978 _... __ 400 .us Calif. Div. of Oil & Gas, ve Aa bes tey 7.5 (in Calif.) _ 1972 (in Stanford Re- _ search Institute, 1973). Sui“ esearch Insti- __ _. H8 .. ... 4.4 (in Calif.) tute, Futures Group "Normal <= 9-11 venial. 0-800 program," 1974. Futures Group "Crash ws 27-40 L.. __ 270-800 program," 1974. Solar U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974h, p. III-A-4- Business as usual ________ or Accelerated development.. -. Dupree and West, 1972, p. ae 18. ________ wren. 40 ________ Sue t. 80 -_ insignificant * Converted from metric tonnes of oil equivalent. When the Minerals for Energy Production (MEP) program was begun, the most comprehensive study of U.S. energy needs had been summarized in the Project Independence Report (PIR), complemented by a series of task force reports for Project Inde- pendence Blueprint (PIB) on various aspects of the problem (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974 a-~1). The PIR and PIB reports give low and high scenarios-Business as Usual (BAU) and Accele- rated Development-for the energy sources that they consider. In this report, the BAU scenarios are followed; in other words, the estimates of the de- DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 mand for basic materials needed to produce energy are based on the lower projections of energy produc- tion. In a few instances, PIB task force projections are supplemented by published projections from other qualified sources. The use of these figures is not intended to identify them as the most probable of the published projec- tions. Wherever possible the estimates of basic ma- terials required for the production of energy are made in terms of modular units so that the reader can apply the data to other projections if he wishes. ESTIMATED BASIC MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS In this report the estimates of basic material re- quirements for energy production are tabulated under five major types of energy sources : fossil fuel, geothermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and solar. Trans- portation is considered under fossil fuel because, in terms of massive requirements of materials, it ap- plies mainly to coal. The requirements of electric- power transmission and distribution from the vari- ous energy sources are treated separately at the end of the report. Wherever possible the estimates of basic material requirements are made in terms of modular units- such as 1,000 MWe (thousand megawatts of electri- cal generating capacity) nuclear plant or a 4.5 million-tonnes-per-year coal mine-so that computa- tions can be made more easily for various production mixes or scenarios, like the projections shown in tables 1-3. Thus, for example, the reader need only multiply the number of 1,000 MWe plants in a par- ticular projection (table 3) by the number of tonnes of each material required to build that plant to ob- tain a rough approximation of the amount of basic materials needed to achieve that projected produc- tion. This approach is impractical for the oil and gas and hydroelectric industries; nor was it used for uranium mining because of the extreme difference in the sizes of mines, which range from one- or two- man "gopher hole" operations to large mines that produce millions of tons of ore. In order to provide some concept of the total amount of materials that may be required by ex- panded energy production in the United States, esti- mates of basic materials required by the BAU scenario are summarized for each energy source. The time periods used differ, depending on usage in the PIB reports. Wherever possible, 1975-90 is used. Requirements for oil and gas production, how- ever, are compiled for the years 1977-88, and those for geothermal energy, coal transportation, fossil- DEMAND fueled turbine and gas generators, and electric-power transmission and distribution are compiled through 1985. These material requirements are summed in table 31 and projected to 1990 in table 1 of Goudarzi, Rooney, and Shaffer (1976), chapter B of this re- port. Throughout, tonnage is reported generally in metric units designated as tonnes. Where short tons (0.907 tonnes) are used, they are so designated. Figures are rounded only in the summary tables. An estimate of the basic materials presently in- vested annually in U.S. energy production is not attempted in this report. No governmental agency collects data that can be disaggregated to show how much of any one mineral commodity goes to energy industries. Moreover, existing industries vary great- ly in size. Collection of data on a modular basis for future energy development, however, is both practi- cal and informative though inexact. Insofar as possible, the basic information for esti- mating future material requirements was obtained from PIB task force reports. However, information in the various PIB reports is presented in different ways-for example, in units of different kinds of machines and in weight units of metals or minerals that are contained in a machine or plant. It was nec- essary in many cases to consult representative manu- facturers of various items of machinery and equip- ment to determine in detail the identity and quanti- ties of basic materials needed. The data supplied by them has been aggregated in the tables and in some cases also supplemented from other sources. For example, because information on the amount of manganese in steel was rarely supplied by industry contributors unless it was in manganese-alloy steels, the average manganese content of carbon steels had to be estimated. Similarly, the amount of tungsten used in tungsten-carbide cutting tools for the manu- facture of equipment was known only for a few items of machinery and was prorated to other ma- chinery chiefly according to the weight of the ma- chine. Many of the minor metals in machinery, such as cadmium, boron, and vanadium, had to be estimated in a similar way from detailed information supplied by one or two manufacturers of a few representative machines. Table 4 gives the percentages of minor materials in mining equipment estimated on the basis of total weight. All the tables that follow are, therefore, rough approximations, and this report should be considered no more than a general overview of the material re- quirements. It aspires to encourage others to evalu- A5 TABLE 4.-Assumed percentages of minor constituent materials in mining equipment, based on total weight Minor material Percentage Antimony - -=. Gerd da eerie bee s o wam 0.1 Asbestos .011 Boron ...:... 002 Chromium 16 CUODalt anne si 003 Lead oe .55 Manganese .... __.... n *.8 MolybdenUMt ~. _ ...- _ ___. 1 Nickel - 2.2202... 20 on ccc bo rl naan nenas one .08 Niobium _E 003 SIINGT .... shee 001 VanSdIUIM: . _... .. . cee c eben een ive .003 IIMC sandal sed "005 * Unless otherwise specified. C * If the item of equipment has an engine. ate more accurately the materials, and therefore the amount of minerals, that will be needed to expand energy production. Accurate and detailed data must exist somewhere for every component required for conventional energy production. When these data become accessible, the information provided here can be corrected or supplemented. Data on energy systems not yet generally adopted must be specula- tive to a large degree. As time passes, however, plans for those systems will become clearer, and close at- tention will have to be paid to their requirements for minerals. £ ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS COAL MINING The annual capacity of coal production during the next 15 years is projected to expand from 621 million tonnes in 1975 to 1,179 million tonnes in 1990 (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 131- 133). Sixty percent of the projected production in 1990 is expected to be from surface mines and 40 percent from underground mines (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 133). For an estimate of the basic materials that would be required by this expansion, one 4.5 million-tonnes- per-year surface mine (table 5) and one 2.7 million- tonnes-per-year underground mine (table 6) were used as modular units (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 159-175). Table 7 gives the basic materials for each modular unit. To reach the projected production level, 74 addi- tional 4.5 million-tonnes-per-year surface mines and 82 additional 2.7 million-tonnes-per-year under- ground mines would be needed. Total material re- quirements are estimated in table 7. The mines are assumed to come on line and stay on line without any replacement. Only equipment that totals signifi- cant amounts of materials and for which industry A6 TABLE 5.-Estimated basic equipment from one 4.5 million- tonnes-per-year surface coal mine [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 168] DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 TABLE 7.-Estimated basic material requirements for modular unit coal mines and total requirements, 1975-90 (in metric tonnes) Item Quantit s Ps Surface mine, Undzggund sgfftzclefifxfixs Overburden drill (blast hole) __________ 2 Commodity 4.5 million 27 milli’on and 82 under- Blast hole nickel alloy bits (6% in)} ___ 30,000 Sonnet - donnos-nersear -_ Somerhshoglel (100 yd) __..._..._. ...s 1 able handler 1 Aluminum __. 6.4 4.08 * 244,618 Walking drag line (100 yd") ___________ 1 Antimony ___ 7.3 1.86 693 Power shovel, coal (15 yd") ____________ 2 Asbestos _____ 1.0 18 88 Large -._-._ .= 6 Boron -_... .36 .033 80 Heavy roadgrader .........«.....-....... 1 Cadmium ___ T .064 57 Truck (coal haulers, 75 SON) i Chromium __. 18.4 53.2 5,724 Truck (maintenance, lubrication, water, 12 Cobalt _.... .28 054 2 and so forth). Concrete _____ 1,265 1,265 194,340 Front end loaders (10 to 15 yd) ______ 2 Copper | ______ 232.9 90.8 24,681 Crane truck 2 fron 2:.::.._: 9,687 5,209 1,143,976 Pickup truck, 12 Lead -....ss. 4.1 9.5 1,082 Shop, mechanical with tools and 1 Manganese ___ 75.0 44.6 9,207 equipment. Molybd a= 7.0 1.86 671 Drill rig (4,000-ft depth capacity) ___.. 1 Nickel _...... 28.1 12.9 3,137 Unit train loading facility _____________ 1 Niobium | _____ .28 .054 25 == 1 Siiver ~_____-_ .09 017 8 High voltage cable 16,000 ft Tin .034 .28 26 Buildings .~ =~... .._ 36,000 ft" Vanadium ___ .28 .054 25 Explosives . Undetermined Tine 12 .68 1.1 140 TABLE 6.-Estimated equipment requirements for one 2.7 mil- ' lion-tonnes-per-year underground coal mine [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 159-160] Item Quantity Continuous -miner -«.._.._._.___________ 16 Loading machine ..._.._______________ 17 Shuttle car ---.---..--..___.. 33 roof 17 Ratio 1CEUET .= sen 17 AAM - m -» n m a a ane ee ce c or al in annie anna 17 Jeep (mantrip, mechanic, personnel) ____ 31 ROCK 30 SUDDIY CAT z az nn nna ae ann awe e nel eeu 70 36-inch rope type conveyor system ______ 36,000 ft High voltage cable .......__.._.:.._.. 16,000 ft Rall (60 AD) ENZ 2 + -. oa n an ones aan be a anes wed 102,000 ft Fresh water pipe (1%-in diameter) ____ 51,000 ft SCOOP -HTACEOT - ~. -» casa. 17 Front end loader (5 yd") ______________ 1 Torklift =t s 1 Bulldorer =s cn. scl loo _c l_ 1 Pickup 4 Drilling rig (4,000 ft) i ROOf DOS -. aL » nnn ene 10,000 Drill steel (3-in. diameter) ____________ 1,500 ft Core DATTEl an 2 CFUSNET "an e .s 1 Unit train loading facility ____________ 1 mps 200 FV/IMINM .- 2... -_ 17 Pumps 1,000 ft/min ._... 17 Buildings o 36,000 ft" EXDIOSINOS_ - =. ce c Undetermined supplied data was considered. Where industry did not provide information on small amounts of the more exotic materials in equipment, the materials were assumed to be present in the proportions shown in table 4, which are based on avarages of informa- tion received from manufacturers of similar equip- ment. *Includes 243,813 tonnes of aluminum used in 8,345,790 tonnes of ex- plosives in coal mining 1975-90 (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974b, p. 35). COAL TRANSPORTATION The four major modes of transportation of coal in 1985 are assumed to be railway, waterway, slurry pipeline, and truck. The largest impact on basic materials requirements will be made by increased waterway and railway transportation. The waterway projections in table 8 include both the replacement of barges and towboats and the incremental materials investment in barges and tow- boats according to the Federal Energy Administra- tion (FEA) low scenario for incremental coal flow to census regions. Just to maintain the present coal- flow capacity to 1985, 1,661 barges and 243 towboats must be replaced. TABLE 8.-Estimated basic material requirements for trans- portation of coal via rail* and water," 1975-85 (in metric tonnes) [Based on Federal Energy Administration low-scenario incremental coal flow to census regions] Commodity 2,579 unit barges ® towizits e trains 5 Total Alummum -_. . "" :__:_; 34 2,711 2,745 Chromium {...= .___-__ BJ 2,042 2,045 COPDET 2... 103 29,188 29,291 696,477 161,629 3,062,892 3,920,999 Lead cu. Lo Neue - _ 3 {Oe 2,008 2,008 Manganese __ 5,617 1,303 ° 20,798 27,714 Nickel ___}... clllly 2 805 807 Silver 's ten cocco 40 40 IM. ne- H 134 134 * Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., (1974k, p. IV-7, 9). * Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin. (1974k, p. V-28). * Includes 1,661 replacement barges. * Includes 243 replacement towboats. 558,000 hopper cars and 2,950 locomotives. ® Assumes 0.6 percent manganese in steel. DEMAND The railway projections in table 8 are based on the FEA low scenario for incremental coal flows to census regions using six-axle, 3000 hp locomotives and H-100 open-hopper rail cars. This scenario calls for an incremental flow of coal by 1985 of 305 million tonnes (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. IV-1). Estimates indicate that a given length of track with a prorated number of locomotives and hopper cars requires approximately the same amount and kind of materials as the same length of slurry pipe- line (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. VII-13 to 29). Therefore, any tradeoff between railways and pipelines will not have a significant effect on the basic material requirements. Also, the basic materials re- quired for additional truck capacity will not be signi- ficant because, according to PIB, ". . . there is a very large amount of excess coal truck capacity available to be used if shipments of coal via truck increase (for whatever reason) over the next 10 to 15 years" (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. VII-40). SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM COAL The synthetic fuels that can be derived from coal are: (1) high-Btu pipeline gas for private use; (2) low-Btu utility gas for power production facilities; and (3) liquid fuels, such as high-grade synthetic crude oil. Technologies available to produce each of these synthetic fuels are numerous. Only a few were selected in estimating basic material requirements to represent a cross section of the total industry. These selections are not meant to suggest which methods would be more successful or more efficient. Table 9 gives estimated basic material require- ments for modular unit coal gasification and lique- faction plants of five different types, and estimated total requirements for 30 plants of various types to increase production of synthetic fuels between 1975 and 1990. AT These estimates are adapted from the Data Sup- plement of the PIB "Synthetic Fuels from Coal" (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974i, p. 9-13, 19). The estimates incorporate a 5 percent learning curve but no economies of seale. The learning curve is included to project a rough estimate of the savings in materials as a result of experience gained. The economies-of-scale factors are not included because only one size of each plant is considered. A more complete explanation of the synthetic fuel model produced by Battelle Institute can be found in the Data Supplement of PIB "Synthetic Fuels From Coal." OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION The total amount of steel required by the oil in- dustry 1977-88 (table 10) was determined by the graphical interpretation of data presented on exhibit VI-2 of the PIB task force report on oil (U.S. Fed- eral Energy Admin., 1974f, p. VI-7). The amount of steel in tubular goods was similarly determined by a graphical interpretation of exhibit VI-2, and the difference between total steel and tubular goods steel is assumed to be the amount that goes into rigs and platforms. It was necessary to distinguish between tubular goods steel and rig-and-platform steel in order to compute the amount of manganese (as- sumed to average 1.3 percent for tubular goods and 0.8 percent for platforms and drill rigs). The total amount of steel and other materials to be required by the gas industry (table 10) was de- termined by simply using the ratio of hole footage projected to be drilled for gas to the footage to be drilled for oil, a ratio of approximately 47 to 53. These footage figures were determined from the PIB task force report (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974d, p. III-8) and from a computer printout sup- plied to us by the Project Independence task force. TABLE 9.-Estimated basic material requirements for single coal gasification and liquefaction plants of different types, and total requirements for 30 plants, 1975-90 [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974i, Data Supplement, p. 9-13, 19] Capacity (million Commodity (metric tonnes) Type of plant standard cubic feet Aluminum Copper Iron Manganese per day) High-Btu pipeline gas, synthane.__c_--_._._.____i__.____ ___ 250 3,811 318 34,989 282 High-Btu pipeline gas, Lurgi process ______________________ 250 4,537 363 41,049 331 Low-Btu fuel gas, fixed bed, atmospheric pressure ___________ 1608 ._ - _L... 45 14,943 120 Liquid fuel, PAS/OIl - Coad i aas 101,061 815 Liquid fuel, Fischer-Tropsch process ______________________ * 825 519 avis 124,285 1,003 Total for 30 synthetic fuel plants of various types ___ 65,199 5,368 860,398 6,939 * And 38,580 barrels per day. 2 And 19,550 barrels per day. A8 TABLE 10.-Assumed equipment and material requirements for oil and gas exploration and production, 1977-88 DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 TABLE 11.-Estimated basic material requirements for oil and gas exploration and development, 1977-88 (in metric tonnes) Oil Gas Commodity Oil Gas Total Totql tons of steel ___... 47,747,000 short tons 42,842,000 short tons Barite cew-c. - -". ioc. foe ecto at 00. - ff pNMIBEI H eweteems Nickel per rig or 250 Ib 250 Ib Tungsten * ___.. 9,676 8,537 18,213 platform. Chromium per rig or 500 Ib 500 Ib 1 Assumes 500 lb chromium per rig. platform. * Assumes average of 1.3 percent manganese for tubular goods and 0.8 Engines per rig or plat- 8 8 percent for platforms and drill rigs. form (1,000 hp). * Matrix of bit contains 3.5 percent nickel in 130-lb bits. Assumes 250 Copper per 1,000 hp 1,786 Ib 1,786 Ib lb of nickel in camshaft of drill rig. engine, + Assumes an average bit is between 8%- and 9%-in diameter, contains s 15.2 lbs of tungsten, and weighs 130 lb. Bits Numb f bits used.... 1,403,100 1,237,800 A $2,155 228mm) ----- 1,000 ft , 1,000 ft , Federal Energy Admin., 1974d, p. V-39), and con- Bit. weight ~-. 130 ib |_ 130 ib _ verting the cement to tonnes of concrete. Nickel per bit 4.6 Ib 4.6 1 Tenerten 16.2 Ib 16.2 Ib “gigs n carbide per s . OIL SHALE Tungsten in 3 15.2 Ib 15.2 Ib T4 n. o In estimating a production in 1990 of 450,000 bar- Drilling muds rels per day (at $7 per barrel) of oil from oil shale Bavite per foot -__... m om (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974g, p. 8), the use tonite f , . lie:... 4 $ pes 1.900 Seer ic osborttons 16.6shorttons | Of four basic types of oil shale facilities is assumed : (average). The number of drilling bits required (table 10) assumes an average bit life of 1,000 feet. The aver- age amount of barite and bentonite used per foot was calculated from data published by the National Petroleum Council (1974, p. 186-187). Such calcula- tion assumes that the average depth of wells drilled in 1988 will be approximately the same as that of wells drilled in 1973. (In fact, the average depth will probably be greater.) The estimated basic material requirements for oil and gas exploration and development between 1977 and 1988 are given in table 11. Calculations are based on the data in table 10. Concrete was calculated by averaging the tonnes of cement per 1,000 feet of hole to be drilled in the various regions covered by the PIB report (U.S. a 100,000 barrels-per-day underground mine, a 100,000 barrels-per-day surface mine, a 50,000 bar- rels-per-day underground mine, and a 50,000 barrels- per-day in-situ "mine." In the surface and under- ground mine units, the shale would be mined by room and pillar methods, crushed, and fed into re- torts, where the hydrocarbons would be extracted by heat. The in-situ units considered herein would re- quire either the injection of steam or hot water directly into the oil shale or underground conven- tional or nuclear explosions to release the hydro- carbons, which would then be drawn off by modified oil wells. The unit models for these facilities are listed in table 12. On the basis of these unit plants, Battelle Institute researchers constructed a computer model of the cumulative basic material requirements of the oil- shale industry through the year 1990. This model TABLE 12.-Estimated basic material requirements for unit models of ocil-shale mines, and for cil-shale mining, 1975-90} Type of mine Underground Underground Surface In situ Total 1975-90 Capacity (barrels/UB}) .~... . . coca nna n iw 50,000 100,000 1,000 50,000 450,000 in 1990 Commodity (metric tonnes) : Aluminum ssc 91 165 165 27 644 CHPOMIUM . c e- esc cl ece ann sien neenee ae ane 1,740 3,185 3,234 9,972 14,146 CODDET -.- ans 454 817 817 318 5,114 TOH * =c aww Adb len anes 61,401 112,424 114,154 351,973 499,306 MANGANECSO |.. cove 2 ono ca poe e nae ane iene s ane 515 944 958 2,955 4,191 MICRO] san ma nle een on een rankin nee ane aie aes m ae 778 1,416 1,487 4,432 6,287 * U.S. Federal Energy Admin. (1974g, p. 134). 2 Includes 15 percent alloy or stainless steel. DEMAND A9 takes into consideration the types of plants con- structed, State where located, economies of scale, construction and production schedules, and a "learn- ing curve" that conserves materials as operating experience is acquired. Consequently, the totals for oil-shale mining 1975-90 given in table 12 do not represent a simple addition of materials used in the four-unit model. FOSSIL-FUELED POWERPLANTS Fossil-fueled powerplants will account for more than 50 percent of the total electricity generated in the United States at least until 1980 and, in absolute capacity, will remain a major power source beyond the turn of the century (Electrical World, 1974, p. 55). The basic material requirements will be cor- respondingly large. Table 13 is based on projections for additional capacities of fossil-fuel-generated electrical energy from the Project Independence Report (U.S. Fed- eral Energy Admin., 1974a, p. 70), which calls for an increased generating capacity by 1985 of 366,000 MWe by coal and 189,000 MWe by combustion tur- bines and other fossil-fueled units'. Data on basic materials for a 900 MWe fossil-fueled, steam-tur- bine-generator set and a 59 MWe gas-turbine-gen- erator set were supplied by industry. The ratio of transformer to generator capacity was assumed to be 1.1 :1. The 900 MWe unit includes a 990 megavolt amperes (MVA) transformer, and the 59 MWe gas turbine unit includes a 65 MVA transformer. As the *It is noteworthy that these projections are much larger than those in Electrical World (1974, p. 55). only data available, these units were used to calcu- late amounts of materials. To meet the new demands for fossil-fueled energy for 1985, about 406 coal- fired plants of 900 MWe capacity and 166 combined cycle powerplants will be required. These projections are based on a worst-case scenario of large, stand- alone, conventional fossil-fuel plants with add-on 59 MWe turbine generator sets. REFINERIES During the next 15 years-or at least through 1985-oil refineries built in the United States will probably be designed to refine mostly crude oil from Alaska and Saudia Arabia. Some of the refineries already in use will need repair, modernization, and modification to process the crudes from these sources or to meet environmental restrictions, especially in the sulfur content of fuel oils and the lead content of gasoline (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. III-5). Each refinery will be designed for particular crudes and markets. No one set of specifications will apply to all. The generalized, "typical" refinery- though it provides the best estimate for all refineries -is the least likely to be built. In the PIB task force report on facilities two cases are presented, one for a gasoline refinery, and one for a fuel refinery. Case 1 is the Alaska crude oil/ gasoline type refinery (200,000 barrels per calendar day), which we have selected as a typical refinery for purposes of estimating the needs of basic ma- terials. Table 14 lists the requirements for one such plant as adapted from Project Independence (U.S. TABLE 13.-Estimated basic material requirements for fossil-fueled powerplants, 1975-85 (in metric tonnes) A B C D E Total Number of units .__._-__________ 1 406 1 1 166 572 Type of unit Steam- Steam- Gas Combined Combined cycle - Column B turbine '* turbine, turbine*' cycle," 1 type A, type D and E type A 4 type C Capacity (MWe) 900 * 366,000 59 1,136 *189,000 *555,000 Commodity : Abestos ___. 0.34 138 0.022 0.4 66 204 Chromium . 21 8,526 3.2 33.8 5,611 14,137 CODRML ~ oo nn nn ee neenee ene a n, nian pi maa 1.9 7.6 1,262 1,262 Concrete 92,265 37,459,590 204.2 93,082 15,451,612 52,911,202 Copper ' 424 172,144 14.8 483 80,178 252,822 Tr0n! . 2s w. nn nie n be eae r eens 22,184 9,006,704 218.4 283,057 3,827,462 12,834,166 Magnesia ..-_..._._-____.._: 1.5 609 .096 1.9 815 924 Manganese =..........-...... 179 172,674 1.8 186 30,876 103,550 Mica (Scrap) .._..__.._._.... 1.1 447 .07 1.4 282 679 Molybdenum ......__.__.__- .9 365 24 1.9 815 680 Mickel ___. 6.8 2,761 d 21.6 3,586 6,347 BIIVET ases one . - ~ n. cho" 0014 0.0056 .9 .9 Tungsten" ~~ 0 n r owo .29 1.16 193 193 Vanadium ._____--__.._____. .26 106 .036 A 66 172 * Including 990 MVA transformer. * Including pad and 65 MVA transformer. * Including pad and 1250 MVA transformer. * U.S. Federal Energy Admin (19748, p. 70). A10 TABLE 14.-Estimated basic material requirements for gasoline refineries, 1977-90 (in metric tonnes) 25 refineries, A 1 refinery, 200, Commodity barrels zerz (133010 each iggodosylgarrels Aluminum - ___ 4.5 113 Asbestos ® _____ 1,677 41,925 Chromium ___. 506 12,650 Concrete ______ 6,974 174,850 Copper -...... 1,116 27,900 82,846 2,071,150 Manganese ___. 674 16,850 Nickel 329 8,225 1 Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin. (19741, p. III-30). * Estimated from projections in U.S. Federal Energy Admin. (19741, p. VIII-21). 3 Short fiber for insulation. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. III-30), and for 25 such plants as estimated from Project Independ- ence data (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VIII-21). DEEP-WATER PORTS Deep-water ports reduce the transportation costs of imported crude oil by making unloading facilities available to very large crude carriers, and they also reduce the risk of oilspills in coastal waters. Deep- water ports can be developed at existing harbors by dredging channels of sufficient depth to accept large tankers, or by providing unloading facilities in deep waters offshore (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741 p. V-1). The deep-water port facilities include berths for tankers, any necessary booster pumping facilities, pipelines from berth to tank farm, and the necessary intermediate tankage at the terminal. They do not include the distribution pipelines and pumping fa- cilities from marine terminal to refineries. In table 15 it is assumed that five deep-water ports will be constructed: three offshore-on the east coast, the gulf coast, and the west coast-and two inshore harbors-on the gulf coast and the west coast. TERMINAL FOR LIQUID NATURAL GAS "The typical liquid-natural-gas (LNG) terminal contains facilities to berth an LNG tanker, receive and store LNG, raise the pressure of the LNG to the DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 gas pipeline pressure, vaporize the LNG, compress the boil-off gases, and deliver a daily average of 500 million cubic feet to a gas pipeline at generally not less than 40°F and 1,200 psig [pounds per square inch gauge]" (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VI-1). Table 16 gives the estimated basic material requirements for one typical LNG terminal. Only one LNG terminal, probably to be located at Savannah, Ga., is planned for the United States over the next 10 years or so. It will cover about 170 acres and will not include any offshore area in the Sa- vannah River. TABLE 16. -Estimated basic material requirements for one typical liquid natural-gas terminal for a tanker with a cargo capacity of 750,000 barrels [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VI-23] Commodity Metric tonnes Aluminum 002 $s _c 145 ChromiUun? =>. =~. cuse -so les 19.6 CONCTELE "2.020 sree nar cern nen ep ens 365,208 Copper _ °C. c rial ninae cider. 72.6 VON 12,759 Manganese | 2 on ce cee oen ee ea anes 104 Nickel _c _c 108 _- cll 8.7 NEW PIPELINES The PIB task force report on transport of energy materials (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, part VI) makes a breakdown of the steel required for crude oil, oil-product, and natural gas pipelines and tanker facilities. For new crude oil the principal new movements are from Prudhoe Bay to the Pacific coast, from Seattle to Chicago, and from Los Angeles to Houston. The task force estimates that the steel re- quirements will be 5.3 million tonnes (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. VI-8). Transportation of the Alaskan crude will constitute about 60 percent of the material requirements, and transportation of California crude will constitute most of the re- mainder. Steel requirements for new oil-product pipelines are estimated at 1.9 million tonnes of steel, and in- dications are that, as with natural gas and crude oil, the petroleum products will become progressively TABLE 15.-Estimated basic material requirements for five deep-water port facilities (in metric tonnes) [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. V-25 to V-40] East coast Gulf coast West coast Commodities Offshore Inshore Offshore Inshore Offshore gztfilfgis Chromium --__.___is___:: __. 1,960 1,960 1,960 1,960 1,960 9,800 Concretens.__. _I L 118,694 23,739 317,508 23,739 40,059 523,739 Copper 163 9 318 9 118 617 [TON ~ xec e bue 93,511 73,821 118,738 73,821 59,418 419,309 Manganese T177 682 980 682 479 3,600 NitKeI® 871 871 871 871 871 4,356 DEMAND more expensive as they are transported from the west to the east coast. Two alternative scenarios for transporting na- tural gas from the Prudhoe Bay and the southern Alaska areas to the conterminous United States are offered by the PIB transportation task force. One envisions a pipeline from the north slope across Canada to Emerson, Manitoba, and to Portland, Oreg., from which terminals the gas would be de- livered to demand regions (U.S. Federal Agency Admin., 1974k, p. VI-12). The other alternative would be the construction of a gas pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez, where an LNG tanker terminal would be located for transport of the gas in the form of LNG to conterminous U.S. entry ports. The tonnages of steel required for the Ca- nadian pipeline route plus U.S. continental segments and for the Prudhoe Bay-Valdez pipeline plus LNG tanker are estimated to be nearly equal, about 10.5 million tonnes of steel each (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. VI-14 and VI-15). The total steel required for pipeline transport of crude oil, oil-product, and natural gas is about 17.7 million tonnes, as shown in table 17. TOTAL REQUIREMENTS The total basic material requirements for energy production from fossil fuel for the period 1975-85 are summarized in table 18. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY By the year 1985, it has been estimated that geo- thermal powerplants will reach a generating ca- pacity of 4,500 MWe (Vasil Roberts,1975, written commun.). Of this total capacity, 50 percent is ex- pected to be produced by flash-steam plants through the development of dry-steam resources, and 50 percent by binary-cycle plants. Two major types of binary-cycle plants, differing basically in type of heat exchanger, are under development. The most popular heat exchanger used with brackish or sea TABLE 17.-Estimated basic material reqki'rements‘ for pipe- line transportation of oil and gas from Alaska to the United gtates, and from Western United States to Eastern United tates [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974k, p. VI-6 to VI-11] Commodity Metric tonnes TrOn Huse iG... fa 17,443,150 MANLAMNCSE SC- - oo on nena a- san 247,700 Miobtlum® < L CBC ____ 885 Vanadium * sc 3,540 * Requirements for pumps and valves not includell. * Assumes 1.7 percent manganese in steel. * Assumes 0.005 percent average niobium content in steel. * Assumes 0.02 percent average vanadium content in steel. All TABLE 18.-Total estimated basic material requirements for energy production from fossil fuels, 1975-85 Commodity Metric tonnes * Aluminum ss.. scot l _c 313,000 ANUIMONY* 12m Ee ea ae + + + howl can n nass 690 ASDESEOR - ZH - aran rae sr enc b banner 42,200 Barit? . __ n> ne 23,400,000 Bentonite _ 2 ~- - anne nees ash con econ cack 10,200,000 BOPOM _ -. Pie's. .. ce an ao a nae e oak cae ence aas s 30 Cadmium 57 Chromium --= 78,100 CODAIC : 2 .o » e -f th 1,290 COnCTOELE _ .=...» 94,000,000 Copper... S2 2-30 _Lk_-2_______ ___ 555,000 [TOH >.. : . . o_ oo enne eg in ci eae acne ak 120,000,000 Mead -.- -... o non enouee 3,090 Manganese -_...__:s_ Pa 1,220,000 MaAgNeSIH .. _... .. .. . 920 MICE na- Pd .o ie 680 A.. _____22___ 1,350 (NICKEL! -~ - - . os o s naan nd e ean nn anl. 44,500 NMiODIUN1 _ oneal ue 910 Silver" :.. s. nau een een nde dee cenno s 49 TiN. -. 160 Tungsten ~_..2.s 02 oo nl AL LCC 18,400 Vanadium ...=, -s ~.. £ 3,740 ANC" » car 140 * Numbers rounded. water is made of an alloy of 90 percent copper and 10 percent nickel. Titanium heat exchangers are more resistant to corrosion but more expensive. The basic materials required for a flash-steam plant and for each type of binary-cycle plant are given in table 19. The modular flash-steam plants are all considered to be one-unit stand alones with a capacity of 100 MWe. The total basic material requirements for geo- thermal powerplants are also listed in table 19. The number of flash-steam plants, binary-cycle plants, TABLE 19.-Estimated basic material requirements for unit geothermal plants, and total requirements for 4,500 MWe of geothermal energy in 1985 (in metric tonnes) A B C D Binary- cycle Binary- plant, cycle 50 MWe plant, Total Flash- capacity, 50 MWe for steam with capacity, 00 plant, copper- with MWe ® 100 nickel titanium (22 type A) MWe heat heat (23 type B) capacity * exchangers ® exchangers (23 type C) } 2,095 2,095 96,000 Asbestos ___.... 787 393 398 35,400 Chromium | ______ 60 kake 1,320 Concrete ...... 15,063 7,532 1,532 678,000 Copper ......... 86 365 9 10,500 Tron" ©2,779 8,637 3,637 228,400 Magnesia _ _____. 4,623 2,312 2,812 208,000 Manganese $ ___. 6 36 36 1,790 Nickel .-..... 27 41 2 1,580 Titentum recs cul. 96s > co nek. 200 4,600 * Assumes well requirement of 10 wells per 100 MWe, spaced at one well per 10 acres. Each well 4,000 feet deep, plus total of 4,000 feet of surface piping. * 90 percent copper, 10 percent nickel. 3 Numbers rounded. *Includes 247 tonnes of iron in chromium-nickel stainless steel, 1,245 tonnes of plant carbon steel, and 1,286 tonnes of pipe and casing. ° Assumes 0.20 percent manganese in plant carbon steel and 0.28 per- cent manganese in underground piping and casing. A12 copper-nickel or titanium heat exchangers is not meant to project a probable mix of geothermal power plants in 1985, but simply to present a pos- sible scenario utilizing all the types of plants that may be available. HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY According to the PIB task force report on facili- ties (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VIII-39), the total new planned capacity for con- ventional and pumped storage hydroelectric power in the contiguous United States 1975-90 is about 53,686 MWe. * This figure was determined by sub- tracting the 1974 capacity from the estimated 1990 BAU capacity. The estimated basic material requirements for conventional and pumped storage hydroelectric power to 1990 (table 20) were adapted from the TABLE 20.-Estimated basic material requirements for addi- tional hydroelectric generating capacity of about 53,500 MWe, 1975-90 [Adapted mainly from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VIII-39 through 66] Commodity Metric tonnes * Alummum tec 807 Chromiim < cus cls 1,390 CONETELE > 2 2 2 zane onn en nen naan e a e ns 114,000,000 COPDET n cae an 2a 2 os oe been caa ana aoa e 17,200 ITO co scare eee an aden 1,990,000 Manganese inne nelle eel nile. 16,000 Ifa reel. ne l cca mnie n ewade .. cs 4,470 :s 252% - 2 ee o olo o n an ene c ann s o 617 * Numbers rounded. PIB report on facilities (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VIII-51 to VIII-66). The ma- terials requirements for the various regions and years were summed for a grand total. Chromium and nickel were added as constituents of stainless steel in percentages of 18 and 8, respectively. Because of the variability in both the size and composition (concrete or earth-filled dam) of future hydroelectric power facilities, we were not able to construct a modular unit that would be representa- tive of any one size or type. NUCLEAR ENERGY Greatly increased nuclear power production and coal production are expected to fill the gap resulting from decreased reliance on oil and gas during the next few decades. As of June 30, 1975, 55 nuclear * The PIB task force on water requirements (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974j, p. 36) estimates a figure for conventional new capacity of about 23,700 MWe by 1993. DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 plants were operable in the United States, 76 were being built, and 112 more were planned (Mining Record, 1975, p. 1). The total capacity of the oper- able plants was about 37,000 MWe, and the total capacity of all 243 plants-operable, under construc- tion, or planned-was about 243,000 MWe. The Project Independence BAU projection of nuclear generating capacity in 1990 is 500,000 MWe. Al- though the industry is experiencing considerable delays, largely for environmental reasons, a rapid growth of the industry during the next few decades seems likely. Demands for materials by the nuclear industry can be categorized under mining and milling, en- richment, and power generation. URANIUM MINING AND MILLING Uranium is the fuel used in largest quantities by the nuclear industry, although thorium is also used. Both elements occur generally in low-grade ores that may be mined by open-pit or underground methods. The ores required considerable beneficiation. Most of the uranium being produced in the United States today is from sedimentary rocks in the West. The uranium compound used to calculate reserves and production in U;0;. Activity of the uranium mining industry in the United States will probably increase significantly until approximately 1988. This increase will be a direct result of nuclear energy growth and the ex- panded demand for U;O; to fuel the additional nu- clear reactors. The cumulative demand for U;O,;, on which our basic material requirements are based is 710,000 tonnes by 1990 (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. 3.12-9). Because of the extreme variation in uranium mine sizes, the modular mine approach was not attempted. The basic materials required to fulfill the U;O0, de- mand were estimated from the uranium mining equipment requirements listed in table 21. These equipment projections are very similar to the pro- jections of the PIB task force on nuclear energy (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. VII-27 to VII-32) except for small items with an insignificant material content. In some cases, industry data did not include small amounts of the more exotic ma- terials in various items of equipment. These were estimated according to the percentages in table 4. The total basic materials impact of the uranium mining industry to 1990 is indicated in table 22. These figures are directly proportional to the num- bers of items for each piece of equipment, which makes them only as good as the equipment estimates. DEMAND TABLE 21.- Estimated equipment requirements for mining of uranium ore, 1975-90 [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. VII-27 to VII-32] Item Quantity DOS 2 2. » nce bae nenas s nabe an ms 10,710,000 Drill steel ... 8,450,000 ft DIES! ee e eo nano l area dl nd marin mle mle bn h 2,600,000 Pumps (200 gal/min) 9,730 Pumps (1,000 gal/min) .-___..___..... 2,920 Hoists (100 hp) 458 fioists (1,000 hp) 182 3,250 Slusher.cable 287,000,000 ft S-ton Tail cars 5,700 fail (C6O.Ib) 1,800,000 1,560 Cars (b:ton diesel) 7,800 Jackhammers 39,000 Water pipe _...__._._._. x 9,900,000 ft Ventilation line ___._--__-_-____ Ray» 9,900,000 ft Compressor (250 ft'/min) ______._____._ 3,640 Compressor (1,000 fi'/min) ________.._ 1,560 Road Grader 1,140 Maintenance truck ..........._.._........ 1,820 To ton truck 2,730 truck L la cnl _ c 5,460 Fork MEL _ 380 SOAOMATUCKS .c cl 9,100 PickUp LrUCK$ _. _-... 5,500 Small 'drill rig ._L«_-_____C___________L 3,250 Heavy bulldozer 3,740 Scrapers (80 yd) &.-____.____._______L 1,240 - 2. -e 2,730 Power shovel (15 yd') _..-.____..__.__.__ 260 Generator (500 Kw) 500 Generator (1,500 Kw) -.__.__-___-5.__ 240 Mechanical SHOD 470 Drill rig (blast hole} c......_.._..._.._ 2,000 Truck for small drill rig .._....-__-.. 3,250 Quonset type HULS 1,630 Primary crusher 85 Secondary crusher L_________-L__-_L-_-- 170 Grinders (ball or rod mill) ___________- 85 Steel autoclaves (10x10 ft cyl) _______ 90 Titanium clad (lead lined) autoclaves __ 170 Gear reducers 1,430 Drill mobiles .. 2 .. es 400 Continuous miners L_______s.sl.__-_.._. 480 Wireline hoist and %-in cable _________ 3,250 TrAMMET .. .~ - -- 1,140 Powerline (heavy duty) ___-__- 9,900,000 ft Concrete (for buildings) _____________._ 1,630 Explosives: f DYNAMITE -_. L. .. ca onn ee een nene ces 163,339 tonnes NitrALG: 2.2L. 2022 sl 37,205 tonnes URANIUM-ENRICHMENT FACILITIES Uranium-enrichment facilities must be developed at a rate equivalent to the development of U.S. nuclear-generation capacity because they will supply fuel for light-water reactors (LWR's) until about 1988. The grade of uranium ore is now about 0.22 per- cent U;0; but is expected to fall to 0.075 percent by the late 1980's. Of uranium's two principal isotopes, U-235 and U-238, it is the U-235, because of its fissionable characteristics, that is used to fuel light- water reactors. U-235 is only 0.7 percent of U;0; by weight. To concentrate the U-235 to the level at which it can be used as a fuel (2 to 4 percent), it is A183 TABLE 22.-Estimated basic material requirements for mining of uranium ore, 1975-90 Commodity Metric tonnes AIUMIMUM #222 en o oe oe en nal cee ae -ne ems 7,718 ANHUMONY _... tk 374 XSDESLOS® .. _._. 2 2 ire nne oooh e T7 BOrOn : 11 eol cara tr ern eases 22 Chromium ' _ 2... ___. 2 C_ _._ u. 6,754 CODAIL ... .= c- Sewer cena ones di anna ines 14 CnCrebe 2 - = ae o onn o n onan r wam dik m ao m 187,851 Copper LAL LEL 16,136 TFON .: - : cores ame we u mem i ae w flee 1,389,248 CAU .._. ~ can tinh ass nens 4,641 Manganese _. L CC 14,492 Molybdenum -. 426 NICKE] - ~ 22% 2 2 an o el onne ache oen aaa m ae ie in mane 6,904 NMiobium . OLC cat L2 14 Silvera. cil ie c ud. Lee ience aas 8 THM eT bec oe olan maen an nith o eile ar ie he ie mee he an fen ie 189 TINAMIUNY c cence nne 122 Vanadium : 14 ine sos s oo en nin 2 haaa ve aie ae alie ie a i a he ie m wn ad 2 414 * Assumes 1.8 oz of zinc per square foot of galvanized pipe surface (U.S. Steel Corp., 1970, p. 25). first converted to uranium hexafluoride (UF,), which is then concentrated to the necessary 2 to 4 percent U-235. Of the two types of uranium-enrichment plants expected to come into production, only gaseous- diffusion plants are considered in this report be- cause of the lack of available information on gas- centrifuge plants. The estimate of basic material re- quirements for uranium-enrichment facilities (table 23) is based on a unit gaseous diffusion plant with a capacity of 8,750 tonnes per year. Although the materials estimate is for an add-on plant, the re- quirements should be similar for a stand-alone plant of the same capacity. Following the BAU scenario, the rate at which additional plants will come on-line is estimated to be one every 18 months starting in 1983. The total basic material requirements to 1990 are therefore estimated for five gaseous-diffusion plants (table 23). & TABLE 23.-Estimated basic material requirements for gaseous diffusion plants, to 1990 5 plants 2 Commodity 8.7153) {2:11:15 eatzlzg‘elm per year * per year Aluminum .______-____ 5,726 28,630 Concrete 564,887 2,824,485 Copper ___ 4,900 24,500 1r0n = 145,710 728,550 Manganese ® __________ 661 3,305 Nickel _...-........~.. 4,791 28,955 * Adapted from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (written commun., April 23, 1975). * PIB projects that, beginning in 1983, one new plant will be brought 31:13) Efoduction every 18 months (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. * Assume 0.2 percent manganese in carbon structural steel and 0.6 percent manganese in other steel. A14 NUCLEAR POWERPLANTS Most of the nuclear powerplants projected to 1990 will be LWR's, in a ratio of 70 percent pressurized- water reactors and 30 percent boiling-water reactors (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974e, p. III-6). Only about 9 percent of the nuclear plants in 1990 are expected to be high-temperature-gas reactors, which are not included in this study ; their exclusion should not introduce much error into the projection of basic material requirements. Although PIB states that only 50 percent of the additional nuclear re- actor plants will be stand-alones, in this report all plants are assumed to be stand-alones and not addi- tions to pre-existing facilities because we were un- able to obtain data on cycling in partial plants. The basic material requirements for LWR's are given in table 24. The first commercial fast-breeder reactor power- plant in the United States is expected to come on-line by 1988. The basic material requirements for this type of reactor are given in table 25. Within the time-frame covered by this report, the total basic material requirements for the fast-breeder type of reactor should not be significant. TOTAL REQUIREMENTS TO 1990 The total estimated basic material requirements of the nuclear industry to 1990 are summarized in table 26. This table includes the mining equipment, DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 TABLE 25.-Estimated basic material requirements for one liquid metal, fast-breeder reactor plant with a capacity of 1,000 MWe. [Adapted from U.S. Atomic Energy Comm., 1974¢, p. 10-8] Commodity Metric tonnes * Aluminum "~_-L3z«c __ ___: _ tc _ " 18 Asbestos £ - __ 138 Chromium Sct. cts. 410 Concrete 22. eac. names e 184,775 Copper :-... .k. cnn nbd nutes 730 TON ~ecr aac cere- ann, --a 35,000 Lead be- ean bas 50 Magnesia / snus anns 780 .-.... . co an ened dee e nec unl 410 Molybdenum 160 Nickel _...... o noen enano seee nn ot c_ 480 SIIVET "=.. ce ale incr beeen RGEC a andie ate arm 1 TiM . 4s tD 2 TANC cert ie tan B 1 Rounded to nearest tonne. 2 Short fiber for insulation. 5 uranium-enrichment facilities, 500 light-water re- actors, and 1 liquid metal fast-breeder reactor. Fusion reactors are not expected to become sources of commercial power until 2000, beyond the time- frame of this report. They are therefore not included in this study. SOLAR ENERGY Solar energy is the world's largest potential source of energy and the only renewable source that is dis- cussed in this report. Until now only a small per- centage of the country's total research budget has TABLE 24.-Estimated basic material requirements for unit light-water reactor (LWR) plants and for reactor plants with a total capacity of 500,000 MWe in 1990 (in metric tonnes) Modular units of 1,000 MWe capacity Replaceable core components for plants of 1,000 MW s L* Total for 150 BWR's e capacity * and 350 PWR's, including Boiling-water Pressurized- replaceable core Commodity reactor (BWR) water reactor 1 PWR for 500 LWR's for components for 15 years plant 8 (PWR) plant* 15 years 5 15 years Aluminum .............. 54 18 0.00375 0.8 14,401 Asbestos "*..... %o fe clot 198 - '' . $a oti aon _ S OC 48,8300 Cadmium ses ogc to n ait D000 _ 225 50.6 51 Chromium 110 415 6.75 1,518.8 163,269 Concrete _._:_--.__.._ at- 190,175 166,040" _ kif 00 ___ * So -L 86,748,400 Copper . ols 90 726 00075 17 390,150 clones. | > .- !} .6375 148.4 144 TTON" < 25,767 34,195 24.375 5,484.4 15,838,784 Lead (ELE cael neso encase . 1. .. 41 .. n. acres! A0 In Pa o 16,450 Magnesin t= ntp 00000 "B8. .~ _ Gelles . o menuet OOL f 274,050 Manganese _..._.__..__..__ 209 T467 .675 151.9 194,952 Molybdenum ._...______._.__ 128 164 02625 5.9 76,606 Nickel :=-:;g............ 49 484 3.15 843.8 177,594 MNTODHWUIN HM une ec . L i eaen. _ onn - 0875 8.4 8 "0 \" 1 3.375 759.4 1,040 Tin ; 0 2 1.875 421.9 1,122 T itaniIUM .. ... - «nace eo eee ain a 0 5 | oot an 0075 1.7 2 MMC -B ose cou coco ec eu B ss s et , 6 v pu 700 - tt _ya. - . (ogee no 122.25 27,506 27,506 * Nuclear power cycle has following parsmeters: plant factor, 85 per- cent; fuel enrichment, 3.2 percent; fuel burnup, 33,000 MWd/tonne uranium ; and tails assay, 0.200 percent. hea 2 Adapted from Bryan (1975, written commun.). 3 Class BWR-6 plant with Mark III containment. «B + Adapted from Bryan and Dudley (1974, p. 5). 51t is assumed that boiling water and pressurized water reactors require essentially the same amount and kind of core materials. ® Short fiber for insulation. 7 Assumes 1.3 percent manganese in steel. DEMAND TABLE 26.-Total estimated basic material requirements for nuclear energy, 1975-90} Commodity Metric tonnes * AIUMINUN1 := .. - .. =. - - an - a 2 t+ tn a aires semen 51,000 ARHUMONY --. . .=. nn nen aan enne nece 375 Asbestos?. -. -s cen EEE L . 48,500 BOTOM 11 2 -en a- 2 nn ne e nn on nen ean e nene na 73 Chromium nos.. 170,000 CODAIL en aan auntie an . 1 Concrete . 89,900,000 COPDET _- cccn= n 432,000 Indi se oo.. asr l. l. ie d ea an amc ange owas! 145 TON us 18,000,000 Lead Uli ir enne on nade niin enue =c apon 21,100 Magnesia rinse 275,000 Manpantse 213,000 Molybdenum 77,200 Nickel - o=e. ___.. 209,000 =.. ans «res 23 Silver cle tenn nan son ane 1,050 «eles «='a's a Bin ahl ales in the faoi m aia le i ao be 1,310 [ £ - 2. c 22 o 5,242,000 RNVIMONY . _ _ (0 cnl 6: ~ _ mee. o s RC 6 = '. /. ' Cole- 32 mar "s. Ii ------------ 5; Chromium ...... _-._.. tl A ll sonce (M one == * " migrate ______________ 9,414,794 . -- _ z..-.-- 6,630,089 8,799000 .. ~ _____Z> 19,800,000 COPDer "_. . . ___Z__ "¢ _ Reuse i I o eeuges 308,533 42 8,010 "'/. -____ _L 317,000 Class ..._........ 7,107,148 113,431 e i in Sansome . _ coo R asl n tC 7,220,000 frm 9,909,296 191,525 11,870,585 1,241,73 75,155 1,091,210 . _ 24,400,000 Lead c 0 o . stl enemee 00 o sl e® 00 c es ce e 00 61 Mznganwe ______ 79,914 1,544 *107,805 10,012 488 8,800 209,000 Molybdenum ..... -_ ---> 500 __ __ 6. :; 0." coctee TvB s 11 Nickel: :of 00. 12 |_ { 8 so. roa _L. uso 1.0000 20 Silicon _«.__-._._.__ - ~ ___szew' ~ ~ eouted* m 5s esses O oo ) oo ln *3,500- 3,500 Ting LE_____ole. . [0 c aot . 8 <«ede. woul. 8 1 Includes materials for grid system, 150 MWth-megawatts (thermal) - central receiver boiler (cavity type), and feedwater heaters for 100 MWe steam turbine. Does not include turbine, generator, dry cooling tower, storage pressure vessels, or steel pipe. * Numbers rounded. 3 Assumes 0.9 percent manganese in steel. + Table 1 on page VII-A-3 of the PIB task force report on solar energy states that 2,700 metric tonnes of cadmium may be used as an alternative for silicon in 1990, but cadmium is not listed as a required commodity on the specifications sheet (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974h, p. VIl-A-15). A16 utilizes the heat immediately or is taken to some type of storage area, where it can be kept for short periods of time until needed. According to the PIB task force report on solar energy (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974h, p. I-17), "The demand on resources for this applica- tion will be small compared to other U.S. demands for construction resources, and is not considered to be limiting." SOLAR THERMAL CONVERSION Solar thermal conversion systems collect the heat contained in the incident rays of the Sun at high temperatures for the generation of electricity. This solar heat is collected either through a field of helio- stats, which are mirrors that focus the Sun's rays on a central boiler, or through a field of parabolic troughs that concentrate the Sun's thermal energy into some type of working fluid, which then goes to a central receiving point. Beyond that point, the solar thermal conversion plant is approximately the same as a conventional fossil-fueled powerplant. Ac- cording to the U.S. Federal Energy Administration (1974h, p. III-2), "There are no fundamental tech- nical limitations that would prevent substantial ap- plication of solar thermal conversion systems." WIND-ENERGY CONVERSION SYSTEMS Wind-energy conversion systems (WECS) will consist of one or more rotor devices linked to an electrical generator through some type of grid sys- tem. These conversion systems will range in capacity from 5 to 50 kilowatts for farm and rural applica- tions and from 1 to 3 megawatts for interconnection with public utility grids. Pertinent data must be studied and analyzed fur- ther, but some characteristics of wind-energy con- DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NONFUEL MATERIALS FOR U.S. ENERGY INDUSTRY, 1975-90 version systems are obvious. The utility grids would be located in areas where wind energy is available, such as along coasts, the Great Plains, and the Great Lakes. Also, the conversion of solar energy as wind directly into electrical energy is more efficient than conversions that require intermediate conversion to thermal energy. BIOCONVERSION TO FUELS "Bioconversion to Fuels (BCF) as defined in this solar energy program includes the production of plant biomass (i.e., organic matter) and the conver- sion of this biomass to a variety of clean fuel prod- ucts and other useful clean energy forms" (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974h, p. V-1). Four sources of biomass are considered here: urban solid waste, agricultural residues, terrestrial biomass farms, and marine biomass farms (table 29). Through biochemical and physical-chemical pro- cesses such as combustion and pyrolysis, a signifi- cant amount of methane or alcohol could be pro- duced from these biomass sources. Prior to 1985 urban solid waste and agricultural residues are ex- pected to be the most significant BCF technologies, with the terrestrial and marine biomass farms ex- pected to become the major BCF energy feedstock materials thereafter. The estimated basic material requirements for all BCF facilities 1975-1990 are summed in table 29. These totals are also listed in table 28 in realtion to requirements for the other types of solar energy. OCEAN THERMAL-ENERGY CONVERSION Ocean thermal-energy conversion systems as now planned will consist of a series of semisubmersible hulls incorporating power-pack modules capable of converting ocean thermal energy into electrical TABLE 29.-Estimated basic material requirements for four bioconversion technologies, 1975-90 (in metric tonnes) [Adapted from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 1974h, p. V-17, 20, 23, 24] Source of biomass ____________. 150 urban 60 plants using Terrestrial Marine solid waste agricultural residues biomass biomass Total plants * feedstock * farms ® farms * Capacity in 1990 (10 "® Btu's per year) ______. 0.18 0.06 0.44 0.2 Aluminum --...... _ . 00 . 90°02 <4 :>. _- -- uc __ 34 Antimony . cs n. ° 6s : sss me an mee dee 6 AASDestOR E ao ins o Phi tool., : - 1 fo 1 Chromium ---.... ' A } 2 c 14. sss ol ja C_ 14 Concrete _. 423,666 180,954 .-. ..} os ___ 02 6,025,468 6,630,089 Copper ll ce ela s ate e t : yaa e oal s. > t 42 Iron ;. o_-ceweelll.l._s 397,884 1,397 116,664 725,769 1,241,714 AAL ~- » " | Aal o n tell l ol _: 61 Manganese -___..-_.___. 3,209 12 941 5,850 10,012 Molybdenum ...--... ' ga =. nos Ou o 6 4: o o ds oce. 6 NICKOL n an n ene n tto BCT B= ::. : So pee ceec. 8 Me 3 1 *%:" - m l 4 8 *1,000 short tons of waste per day per plant. 21,000 tons of residue per day per plant. ° Estimated land requirement equals 1.6 million acres in 1990. + Estimated total marine space in 1990 is 800,000 acres. DEMAND energy. The energy will be obtained by an exchange of heat between a working fluid (such as ammonia or propane) operating in a closed cycle, and the ocean water-similar to a refrigeration cycle. The impact of ocean thermal-energy conversion systems will not become apparent until the 1990's, when rapid growth is expected. Initially, the ocean- thermal powerplants will be located relatively near shore and transmit their electricity to onshore areas. Later, chemical storage might be utilized by ocean- thermal powerplants farther out to sea, where tank- ers would pick up the product (hydrogen) on estab- lished runs. The total estimated basic material requirements for ocean thermal conversion 1975-90 are shown in table 28. PHOTOVOLTAIC ELECTRIC-POWER SYSTEMS Photovoltaic electric-power systems convert the light that strikes solar cells directly into electrical current. No intermediate step to convert the solar energy to thermal energy is necessary; therefore, these systems can operate at a relatively high ef- ficiency. Photovoltaic cells can supply electricity from either a dispersed display, such as on houses and other buildings, or a centralized display, which would be necessary to produce electricity for public utilities. Because of the adaptability of photovoltaic electric-power systems, they could be used in con- junction with most other types of solar-energy tech- nologies. ELECTRIC-POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION Regardless of how electrical power is generated, it must be transmitted, in many cases for distances of several hundred miles, and distributed in local areas to the users. These transmission and distribu- tion systems require substantial amounts of alumi- num, copper, and steel in cable, transformers, and towers. According to the PIB task force report on facili- ties the trend in transmission has been to shift from the 69 kV through the 138 kV class of lines to the 280, 345, 500, and 765 kV classes of lines. "The development of Ultra High Voltage (UHV) (1,000 KV and higher) transmission lines is in progress at several test locations. . . . Considerable development work is being done on Extra-High Voltage (EHV) underground cables, with 345 KV now approaching a standard design and an initial 500 KV cable in serv- ice" (U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VII- 211). A17 TABLE 30.-Estimated basic material requirements for electri- cal transmission and distribution powerlines and trans- formers, based on an additional capacity of 759,000 MWe, by 1985 [Data on projected capacity from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19742, p. 70; data on materials per 1000 MWe from U.S. Federal Energy Admin., 19741, p. VII-227, 228] Commodity Metric tonnes * Aluminum lsc 8,430,000 Copper .-..... 2,130,000 rN eae .se lel: c Abed cbc all nne an newerses 13,800,000 MANEARICRE : -- - .. :r nal on n nal ee oe ea ae en neenee 111,000 * Numbers rounded. Electrical-power distribution has at the same time been shifting from 5 kV to 15 kV classes of circuits. Underground distribution facilities are also increas- ing in many areas at a rapid rate. Insulation sys- tems for underground cables present a difficult tech- nological problem. Table 30 gives the estimated total basic material requirements for electric-power transmission and distribution of 759,000 MWe new capacity 1975-85 TABLE 31.-Total estimated basic material requirements for anticipated significant energy sources, approximately 1975- 90 * Metric Short Commodity tonnes * tons * Aluminum - 14,100,000 15,500,000 Antimony ' _... _. 1,070 1,180 Asbestos: cons _C. 126,000 139,000 barite 28,400,000 25,700,000 Bentonite... .u. 10,200,000 11,200,000 BOFON 41 45 130 209 Chromium 251,000 276,100 CODAIE - on- craw ener ank -innns 1,300 1,430 Concrete 319,000,000 351,000,000 Copper - n 3,460,000 3,810,000 Fluorite (aluminum and steel production)'_._.__._i-___._ 1,580,000 1,740,000 Indium 145 160 TrOn sof ; . m tan " ur mein o tN ual o"" 909'LZ ND AML ( 098'8 ALDI [Lee Serous. .... omenia 204 __ ) 4 1 al rare sedan orn Aid e sale Deren d ake: shaolin oir a sinicinand DFA neni ouly OT8'8 porin ote ilan: :-" oie tt ln non ar tons ton T i dnote org's Cep 0.00. § wnrpeus A 0OLOr: sus S Noses t " a hand Sol aoe" 34 0 neni -Long. c+ an ent + vic lnk l Coss c tia a ta ear 298 S§8ige! . 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